You are on page 1of 529

A

WIND


16

2010

20 30
08
60

12
3

70%

30%

2008 8 12

100

1995

1955 IT 1955
IT

IT IT

1.1 IT

Bill Gates

1955-10-28

Paul Allen

1953-1-21

Steve Ballmer

1956-3-24

Steve Jobs

1955-2-24

Eric Schmidt

1955-4-27

Bill Joy

Google

Scott McNealy

1954-11-13

Vinod Khosla

1955-1-28

Andy Bechtolsheim

1955-9-30

1954-11-8

5060

7080
90

40 20 40

20

2005

56 73 69.3

19 22
25 27 24 26
30

47-49

50

48
1961
2009 2008

1.1
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

1959

1956

1953

1950

1954 1963 1987


1954 2232 1961
1193 1000
1978 -1982 1985
1962-1973 1962 2437 1963
2919 1964-1973 2400 -2700 12
3.14 3

1962 1984 1987


2549 24 400
1985-1993
2100
1987-1989
1963

1990-1991
1992 1994
1994
1994-2000 1994
700
2001 1962-1973 28-39

1987 2009-2012 22 25
2008 2009 1987
2500

2008-2011
2010 2012 100
2017
2010 400-500 1987

24 26 47-49

1990-1995 22
1.5 2500 1996 2163
1997 2043 1998 1798 2001 1676
22 2000
4 2007 2145 2008 2320
2008
2009 2451
2010 2389 2011 2341 2012 2319 2013
2199 2014 2064
33 -40 1996
1996-1997 33 34
1963 2006 1972
33 1962-1973
2006
33 3 1
1979 1715
2012 33 1650
2012 2014 33
2000 2020
2022 1962 50
2012
2012
20
60 1.8 2020 60
2.4 18%

1.4 2000
2013 2013-2016
2021
2050 45%

1.2 1.4 95
13.5

2500
2021, 13.3
2000

13

1500

12.5

1000
12
500
11.5
2022, -6

11

-500

10.5

-1000

10

-1500

2045

2048

2051

2044

2046

2048

2042

2039

2036

2033

2030

2027

2024

2021

2018

2015

2012

2009

2006

2003

2000

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1.3
100000

2013, 97497

90000
80000

2016, 78814

70000
60000
50000
40000

2050

2042

2040

2038

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

M20~59F20~54

15-64

1.4
0.45
0.40
0.35
2034 , 0.31

2013, 0.25

0.30
0.25

2023, 0.20
0.20
0.15
2001, 0.10

0.10
0.05
0.00

2050

2047

2044

2041

2038

2035

2032

(60)

2029

2026

2023

2020

2017

2014

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

(65)

1.8 2033
2025 2015
2000 60 2050 31%
1.5 2033

15

2033 , 14.85
14.5

14

13.5

13

12.5

12

2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020

2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001

0.39
11

2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039

2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1995

1991

15--64(

0.29

2015, 0.29

2037

2019

10

2035

15

2018

20

2033

65+
60+

2017

25

2031

30

2016

35

2029

1.6

1.7

2025, 10
10

0.37

10

0.35

0.33

0.31

0.27

0.25

2020
2028 2010 2050 20%
2023
1979
1991 1979 18-35
2.6 1991 2.6 1991
18-35 1.2 1997
1997
2010 18-35 2023
1.3

30
04

10
1.8

2022

80

04

18

90
2000 2000


1994-1996 2500 7594
2003-2005 2006-2008
2350 2003-2005
5244 5200
2003-2005 1334 1666
333
2003-2005 5530

9
2008-2010 5 21

2008-2010 3630 5
1900 600 1988-1990
7600 5 1993-1995
6300 1300 21

600 2000

2010 10
2013-2014 1700
1000 700
400
300 1000 2003 800
1000
2010 1950 1950-1959
2.01 2000 2004
1.76 2010 2019
1600
1600 1992
1990 2001 1700 2017-2018

2010-2018
10
1.9

800

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

U
1 5
01-08
5-10
2

1.10

10-20
10

2010 10

1
2

12
3

50 100

2
10

1.11

10

2010-2020 2013
10

1 90 2
3

1990-2006

20

1.219532007
19531954
1958

1959

1960

1963

1965

1967

1968

1970

1971

1973

1974

1975
1976

1978
1979

1980
1982

19841987

19881990

19901994

19951998

///
//

19992000

20032007

11900
197 4000%
2Buick Motor Company19131914
1368%
3 1926 1929
1927 6 50 575
4RexallTupperware
16 1958 50
519571959
48 355
61963 6 100
550
7
CAD-CAM
Computer vision 19781980
1235%
8 B 1978 1980
1350%
9 Epogen Neupogen
1990 60 1992 460
10
1990 11 1994 3 2000% 19902000
75000%
11IGT International Game Technology
19911993 1600%
121993 3 1999
1800%
13 1994 8 3
20
14 1996 11
1999 1 1780%
15
1998 1 14 478%
16
1998 500%
1999
17 1999 29

20 90
18 2004

19 iPod

1000
1000
19 9 20
20 19
10
21 200 20
25

1.3

2002

1999-2000

1634
420254

1200
431690

36%
-3%

4999230

2779760

80%

103

81

28%

5421221

3212731

69%

S S
10% 90% 14 8
5

2009 A


A 2000
2009

2009 2008
2008

2009

2000 NASDAQ
90

1.122000 1000

$
150

1000

120

800

90

600

60

400

30

200

0
9103 9303 9503 9703 9903 0103 0303 0503 0703 0902

9103 9303 9503 9703 9903 0103 0303 0503 0703 0902

2005-2006 Google Baidu

2000
1.13google baidu

$
750

500

600

400

450

300

300

200

150

100

9103 9303 9503 9703 9903 0103 0303 0503 0703 0902

9103 9303 9503 9703 9903 0103 0303 0503 0703 0902

1997-1998
1995-2000
1999-2000
2005-2006

1.14 1998-2000

$
150

Draka

Alcatel

Draka

150

120

120

90

90

60

60

30

30

0
9103 9303 9503 9703 9903 0103 0303 0503 0703 0902

9103 9303 9503 9703 9903 0103 0303 0503 0703 0902

1.4

1.15

1.5


1.6

/
/

1.7

Modem

1.8

A
A

90

2009 A

1.16

200

1.9

1771

1829


1875

1908

1971

1.17 S


--

1830 70
1970

1880-90 1920 1990

1.18

1.19

1.20

1771

1773

1828

1836 1847
1848

1908

1890

1908

1971

1779

1893

1903

1929 30
1920

1810

1819

1825

1857

1866

1873

1902

1920

1960

1974

1997
2008
1974 1989

2000

80 90

2001

2008

20 30

50

2008

IT

21 /
,/

Internet Smart_Grid20090306 Internet Smart_Grid


20090309 Internet Smart_Grid20090402

1949
1978

1929

1974
2001 2004-2005

1997
1990

80
1974

1929 1974
1974 1990

2006

2005 6
5

89 WHY

100 5

2
2001

2001 4 8090%
5060%

90

ZST
A

06
07

05

2004
2

20042005

2005 5 7,655 3
13.7 5.57%
2.25% 5 3.6% 44.4
27.8 A 18

13.7
2004 2.59
1,504 5.8%2004 A 626.7
2.4%
GDP 120% 93%


13.7 7

2004 2 2005 5
2004 2 2

QFII

2004 7
2004 12

2004 2

2004 6

2004 12


2005 1

2004 7

2004 7

2004 11

2004

2004 8

2004 9

2005 4

2004 10
2004 10

2004 11

2005 1

4 29

1
2

4 2/3
2/3

1
12
2 5%

12 5% 24 10%
3
1%

LOF ETF

2004 4

3 10
1 3

2004 6

,,

2004 8

1,,
20%
2,

2004 10

2 100%
80%

2005 2

3
4

6 20

6 20

10
42

6 18

6 17


()

6 15

,
,

6 14

6 13


50%

6 13


(
)

6 13


69

67


()()

66



6.8

5 31

2 1974
1929 -1933

1933 6 16

19331935
1933 3 9 6 16 73

19351939 19351936

1929
400 1929 1930
1929 3 1930
8 380
9 10%10
10%10 24 11 23
380 228 40%
1930 4 1930
1929 3 30 4 32
7 1933 3-7
53 105 1935

1.21
160
140
120
100

1935

80
60

1933 3-7

40
20

193510

19357

19354

19351

193410

19347

19344

19341

193310

19337

19334

19331

193210

19327

19324

19321

70
50 1955
20 1956-1973 GNP
10.2%GDP 9.25% 90-07 GDP
10%
1970
1

2 50
44%

1973-1975

70
1975 1973

1.22 GDP

35%

/GDP

/GDP

/GDP

/GDP

30%
25%
20%
15%

10%
5%
0%

1.23
1970-1975
30
25

20
15
10
5
0

1975-1980

60
1973
1973

1.24
/

18
16
14

12
10
8

6
4
2
0

1.25 70 4.8

/GDP(RHS)

350,000

6%

300,000

6%

250,000

5%

200,000
5%
150,000

100,000

4%

50,000

4%

3%

1
2
3

1.26
/
40%
35%

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%

5%
0%

1973

GDP

1974

GDP
CPI
70 90 20 122%
82% 21%
1994
70
70 1990
1.27 GDP

/GDP
3

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

1.28 CPI

CPIRHS)

250%

25%

200%

20%

150%

15%

100%
10%
50%
0%

5%

-50%

0%

-100%

-5%

1.2970 -84

225

500RHS

12000
160
10000
120

8000
80

6000

4000

2000

40

70

105

2007 GDP GDP 6% GDP


35
680 GDP 7%

1.102008

9.5

2.7

42.5

38.4

36

50

2
1.30

GDP

60%

GDP

GDP

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

0.46
20%
66.4% 20% 1.3% 3
10 2.2

1.31
GDP

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

GDP:(RHS)

GDP

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

1.32

=1
5

45 20

()

80

1938
1884 1890 1895 1899
1906 1912 1916 1920 1925 1929

18
2.1

1776

1785

1794

1803

1812

1821

1830

1839

1848

1857

1866

1875

1884
1902

1893
1911

1920

1929

1938

1947

1956

1965

1974

1983

1992

2001

2010

5000
2500 500 250 80
29-30 16-18 10 4

5000

PIMCO 1871
20

20
10

2.11871

2.218001997
14%

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%

2%
0%

2.318351997
18%
16%

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%

4%
2%
0%

4
2009

2.4

2.5

3-4
2.6 Pork Bellies 3-4

pork bellies futures


6

120
100
80
60
40
20

Jun-08

Jun-07

Jun-06

Jun-05

Jun-04

Jun-03

Jun-02

Jun-01

Jun-00

Jun-99

Jun-98

Jun-97

Jun-96

Jun-95

Jun-94

Jun-93

Jun-92

19

2.7

19

1
1923 3~5
2 3~4

2
1860 9~10

3
1926 50~60
18 1789 1849
25 35 60 1849 1896
24 23 47 1896 24 1920

4
1930 15~25 20

1936
6 40
9~10 48~60
18 80 1842
1842
1897
1897

2.8


2008
2009

2.9 GDP

2.10 GDP

1
23
12

2.11

2.12

1
2

1952

1 1990

21990
1990 90
1992 9
2001 6 2007 2008
2009
3 9-10%
9-11%
5-10 9-10%
10% 8%

2.13

%
rhs %

12

11

10

-3

-6

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1978

2.141978

40

(rhs)

30

20
10

0
-10

-3

-20

-6

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

-30

2.151978

-40

20

15

(rhs)

30
20

10
10

5
0

-5

-10

-10
-20

-20

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

-15

-30

1986-2008

1M2

2M2 CPI PPI 1-2

3M2

2.16

1929 2
2007 6

www.bis.org
www.nber.org

2008

2.17

15

PPI

10
5
0
-5

-15

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

-10

2.18

60 4-6
20 90 07
08
07 3
2.19 60 4-6

bn,RHS)
(%
%

20%
15%

150

100
10%
50

5%

Mar-08

Mar-05

Mar-02

Mar-99

Mar-96

Mar-93

Mar-90

Mar-87

Mar-84

Mar-81

Mar-78

Mar-75

Mar-72

Mar-69

Mar-66

Mar-63

-5%

Mar-60

0%

-50
-10%
-15%

-100

2.20 OECD 1

OECD

25
20
15
10
5

Jan-08

Jan-05

Jan-02

Jan-99

Jan-96

Jan-93

Jan-90

Jan-87

Jan-84

Jan-81

Jan-78

Jan-75

Jan-72

Jan-69

Jan-66

Jan-63

-5

Jan-60

-10

GDP
GDP

50%

0.53
0.3795
0.2
0.47 0.72

2.21

3
(3

40

25

35
30

20

25
20

15

15
10

10

2008-07

2007-11

2007-03

2006-07

2005-11

2005-03

2004-07

2003-11

2003-03

2002-07

2001-11

2001-03

2000-07

1999-11

1999-03

1998-07

1997-11

1997-03

1996-07

-10

1995-11

-5

1995-03

2.22
25

-
(3

50

40

20
30

15

20

10

10
2008-05

2007-09

2007-01

2006-05

2005-09

2005-01

2004-05

2003-09

2003-01

2002-05

2001-09

2001-01

2000-05

1999-09

1999-01

1998-05

1997-09

1997-01

1996-05

1995-09

-10

1995-01

-20

5
4 6
2.2

1980

1982-1987

1981-82

1985

1987-1992

1989

1998-99
1996
00-01

1992-2000

1991

2000-2005

1999

00-01

1990-91

2004

2005-

08-

2008

05

2.23

GDP

2.24

6
GDP
4
2
0
-2

-6

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

-4

2.25

2002

2.262003-2008
()

()

100.00%

12.00%

90.00%
80.00%

10.00%

70.00%

8.00%

60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%

6.00%
4.00%
2.00%

0.00%

0.00%

20
03
20 12
04
20 04
04
20 08
04
20 12
05
20 04
05
20 08
05
20 12
06
20 04
06
20 08
06
20 12
07
20 04
07
20 08
07
20 12
08
20 04
08
-0
8

20.00%
10.00%

2007
30%
3-6
3-6

2.27

M2

40
35
30

24
22

25

20

20

18

15
10

16

14
2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1996

-5

1997

12

2.28 3-6
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%

-20

-30

1997-02
1997-06
1997-10
1998-03
1998-07
1998-11
1999-04
1999-08
1999-12
2000-05
2000-09
2001-02
2001-06
2001-10
2002-03
2002-07
2002-11
2003-04
2003-08
2003-12
2004-05
2004-09
2005-02
2005-06
2005-10
2006-03
2006-07
2006-11
2007-04
2007-08
2007-12
2008-05
2008-09
2009-02

-10

20%

2001-2005

2.29

1900
1929 1940 1973 50 2000

2.30

1900 20 1900-1920

5 1929
-85%
30%
2.3

1903.10

13

1902.9

1906.9

1907.11

14

-38%

1909.12

1914.12

60

-29%

1916.11

1917.12

13

-33%

1919.7
1929.9

1921.8
1932.6

25
33

-32%
-85%

1937.2
1946.5

1942.4
1948.2

62
21

-57%
-22%

1957.5

1957.12

-17%

1961.12

1962.6

-22%

1968.12

1970.6

18

-29%

1973.1

1974.9

20

-42%

1980.11

1982.7

20

-19%

1987.10

1987.10

-31%

1990.7

1990.10

-20%

1998.7

1998.8

-19%

2000.8

2003.3

31

-43%

-29%

20 5
16 25
2.4 20

-25%

1947.6

1949.6

24

1952.6

-25%

1955.7

1956.11

16

-21%

1961.4

1962.7

15

-27%

1969.1

1970.5

16

-31%

1951.10

60 70 ROC 70
80 ROC

2.31 60 80 ROC

ISM ISM

2.5ISM SP500
ISM
SP5003

12

1955.5

12%

19%

22%

1959.5
1961.12

2%
-2%

-3%
-23%

-6%
-14%

1966.3
1968.11

-6%
-10%

-16%
-7%

-2%
-18%

1973.1

-10%

-10%

-24%

1976.2

-1%

0%

-5%

1978.7

-9%

-5%

-7%

1980.11

-9%

-10%

-18%

1983.12

-5%

-9%

-2%

1987.12

4%

8%

8%

1994.11

7%

14%

29%

1997.7

-5%

2%

15%

1999.12

2%

-3%

-13%

2002.6

-18%

-13%

-4%

-5%

-5%

-5%

2.32

2.33

3-6

2.34

ERP
2000 ERP 0
3 ERP
2007
2.35

DCF P/E

10 2-4% P/E

2.36 10

1926-2005
50%

2.6

1
1

0.01
0.04

0.48
1.27

50.40
51.20

-0.488
-0.464

1
1

0.18
0.80

2.48
5.92

53.19
56.36

-0.404
-0.309

1
10

10.0
159.4

20.5
64.8

72.6
99.9

0.177
0.977

100

1377961

205.0

100.0

1.000

6
72.6%

20% 4.5% 100%


2.8%
2.7

<20%

4.5%

20-50%

5.4%

50-100%

3.8%

>100%

2.8%

45

3.1ILBS


DEFLATION
INFLATION
DISINFLATION
RUNAWAY INFLATION

3.2

500

60 70
80%
80


9799 2000
NASDAQ
2002

2008
2008 2009
2010

1
70
07 08

20

3.31850-2008
12

11
10
9

(LHS
RHS)

8.0

7.5
7.0
6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

3.41897-2008

40

CPIYOY%LHS
RHS

10
9

30

8
20
7
10
6
0
1897

1907

1917

1927

1937

1947

1957

1967

1977

1987

2007 5

1997

-10

-20

3.51953-2008
17

20

CPIYOY%

15

13
11
9
7
5
3

Jan-07

Jan-04

Jan-01

Jan-98

Jan-95

Jan-92

Jan-89

Jan-86

Jan-83

Jan-80

Jan-77

Jan-74

Jan-71

Jan-68

Jan-65

Jan-62

Jan-59

Jan-56

-1

Jan-53

3.61953-2008

Aaa
Baa

18
16

3.0
2.5

14
2.0

12
10

1.5

1.0

6
0.5

Apr-07

Apr-04

Apr-01

Apr-98

Apr-95

Apr-92

Apr-89

Apr-86

Apr-83

Apr-80

Apr-77

Apr-74

Apr-71

Apr-68

Apr-65

Apr-62

Apr-59

Apr-56

0.0

Apr-53

3.71950-2008
160

140
120

100
80
60
40
20

Jan-06

Jan-02

Jan-98

Jan-94

Jan-90

Jan-86

Jan-82

Jan-78

Jan-74

Jan-70

Jan-66

Jan-62

Jan-58

Jan-54

Jan-50

150
30%

1837 1843 1919 1921 1937 1938 1948 1949


19291933
90

3.8

S1

S2

E1

D1

E2

D2

3.9

S1

S2
E1

D1
E2
D2

20 1914

1873 1896 1921 1929

3.1018651879

US IP Index(LHS)
US Wholesale Price Index(RHS)

900

250

800
200

700
600

150

500
400

100

300
200

50

100

18
92

18
89

18
86

18
83

18
80

18
77

18
74

18
71

18
68

18
65

18
62

18
59

18
56

18
53

18
50

3.12 20 30

US IP Index(LHS)
US Wholesale Price Index(RHS)

5000
4500

230
210

4000

190

3500

170

3000

150

2500
130

2000

110

1500

90

500

70

50

19
10
19
12
19
14
19
16
19
18
19
20
19
22
19
24
19
26
19
28
19
30
19
32
19
34
19
36
19
38
19
40

1000

3.1320-30
30

CPIYOY%LHS
(RHS)

400
350

20

300

10

250
0
0
n- 2
Ja-10

3
n- 2
Ja

6
n- 2
Ja

9
n- 2
Ja

2
n- 3
Ja

5
n- 3
Ja

8
n- 3
Ja

200
150

-20

100

-30

50

-40

3.1489 12 -97 12 58%


270%
SSE30 Index (LHS)
Nikkei225 Index (RHS)

1600

45000
40000

1400

35000

1200

30000

1000

25000
800

20000

600

15000

400

10000

200

5000

Sep-07

Sep-05

Sep-03

Sep-01

Sep-99

Sep-97

Sep-95

Sep-93

Sep-91

Sep-89

Sep-87

11
1 1913-1915 1930-1933

20
18%
2 1
17%
3 1

3.1 20 1897-1919 1920-2008

-4Q

-3Q

-2Q

-1Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1900-1901
1903-1904

12
10

23%
14%

-21%
-32%

-11%
-31%

-4%
-30%

4%
-12%

13%
10%

28%
9%

21%
16%

9%
41%

1907-1909
1910-1912
1913-1915

12
16
16

52%
1%
-30%

-38%
-14%
-14%

-27%
-8%
-6%

-27%
-3%
0%

-13%
9%
0%

15%
0%
6%

24%
-2%
1%

36%
1%
-9%

47%
-11%
/

1921-1923

26

44%

-27%

-19%

-12%

-11%

3%

-10%

-4%

7%

1926-1929
1930-1933

35
45

94%
-67%

20%
-15%

3%
-9%

2%
-29%

11%
13%

-6%
1%

-2%
-11%

3%
-33%

13%
-30%

1938-1940
1949-1950
1954-1955

23
14
12

12%
20%
39%

-47%
-12%
37%

-42%
-7%
28%

-36%
-2%
19%

-18%
-3%
8%

35%
6%
12%

43%
14%
14%

56%
21%
25%

33%
33%
29%

20

18%

-15%

-12%

-11%

-1%

9%

10%

12%

17%

95 07
GDP

1 90

30
3

3.290

GDP

1998-1999

11

-0.4%

1998-2004

68

-13.8%

2001-2002

21

-0.2%

1998-2006

78

16

-3.5%

1996-1998

17

-0.6%

1998-2000

25

-2.2%

01

01

3.15
YOY%

20%
15%
10%
5%

Mar-08

Mar-06

Mar-04

Mar-02

Mar-00

Mar-98

Mar-96

Mar-94

Mar-92

Mar-90

Mar-88

Mar-86

Mar-84

Mar-82

Mar-80

-5%

Mar-78

0%

-10%
-15%
-20%

3.16


30%

(YOY%)

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

Mar-01

Mar-98

Mar-95

Mar-92

Mar-89

Mar-86

Mar-83

Mar-80

Mar-77

Mar-74

Mar-71

Mar-68

Mar-65

Mar-62

Mar-59

-5%

Mar-56

0%

-10%

90

89 12
-97 12 58% 270%
1

1
3.17 90

GDPYOY%

CPIYOY%

11%
9%
7%
5%
3%

Mar-06

Mar-04

Mar-02

Mar-00

Mar-98

Mar-96

Mar-94

Mar-92

Mar-90

Mar-88

Mar-86

Mar-84

-3%

Mar-82

-1%

Mar-80

1%

-5%

3.18 90

12%

GDP(YOY%)

CPI(YOY%)

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%

Sep-07

Sep-05

Sep-03

Sep-01

Sep-99

Sep-97

Sep-95

Sep-93

Sep-91

Sep-89

-2%

Sep-87

0%

-4%
-6%

3.19 90

TOPIX500YOY%RHS

120%

50%

100%

45%

80%

40%

60%

35%

40%

30%

20%
25%
0%
-20%
-40%

Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- 20%
1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
15%

-60%

10%

-80%

5%

-100%

0%

6 1873-1879 1893-1894 1907-1908 1920-1921


1929-1933 1937-1938 1929-1933

6 4
1920-1921 1937-1938

3.3Friedman

1873-1879

-1.5%
-36.8%
73-78

1873

1893-1894

-7.2%

1907-1909

-15.6%
-1.7%
07-08

1921-1923

-2.9%
-36.6%
22-23

1929-1933
1938-1940

-6.8%

-39.6%
-37.8%
29-33
-12.6%
-10.1%
36-38

18901893
/
1906

1919

1907 M2 -3.51%
1920 4.75%
7%

1929 M2 4

1937

M2 1

3.4Gary Shilling 14

1
2
3
4

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

14

3.20

3.21

//

3.5
LOSERS

WINNERS
AAA

70
60
GREAT SOCIETY
/GDP
1969
50
60

1973

70
9394
A 10
3.22
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600

85

84

83

82

81

80

79

78

77

76

75

74

73

72

71

400

3.24 500 85.5% 89%


6

82%!!!

85.5%!!!

0
69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

70
GDP

(Stagflation)(Stagnation)
(Inflation)

3.24 1969-1982 13
GDP YOY%
10GDP

17

CPI YOY%
10CPI

15
13
11
9
7
5
3

Mar-08

Mar-05

Mar-02

Mar-99

Mar-96

Mar-93

Mar-90

Mar-87

Mar-84

Mar-81

Mar-78

Mar-75

Mar-72

Mar-69

Mar-66

Mar-63

Mar-60

Mar-57

Mar-54

-3

Mar-51

-1

Mar-48

-5

1867-1960
16
12
60 1960 M2
GDP CPI 1969-1983
GDP GDP
CPI

3.5 M2 GDP

M2
GDP
M2
GDP

1963 11 1965 11 1964 6


1967 2 1967 6 1967 9
7
1968 2

1968 7

1968 9

1971 12

1972 12

1976 2
1983 3
1987 2

1970 3 1970 10

1970 12

1973 3

9
15

1974 6 1975 5

1975 3

7
11

1976 5
1984 2
1988 1

1978 12
1984 3
1988 6

3
11
11

1979 3 1980 7
1986 3 1987 1
1989 6 1991 4

1980 9
1987 3
1991 3

16
10
10

1999 2

2000 6

2000 6

16

1993 4 1996 1

1995 12

21

2001 12

2005 6

2004 6

30

2000 7 2001 12

2001 12

2005 5

12.8

10.5

3.25M2 GDP
16
M2
GDP

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2

84

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

62

60

-4

1867-1960

3.26Fed CPI 70
16

25

M2
CPI

14

20

12
10

15

8
10

6
4

82

81

80

79

78

77

76

75

74

73

72

71

70

69

3.6 M2 CPI
M2
CPI

M2
CPI

1963 11

1966 11

36

1967 2

1967 10

1968 2
1971 12

1970 1
1974 12

22
36

1970 3
1974 6

1972 8
1976 12

29
30

1976 2

1980 4

51

1979 3

1983 8

54

1983 3

1984 4

13

1986 3

1986 12

1987 2
1999 2

1990 12
2000 6

2001 12

2008 7

47
16
80

1989 6
1993 4

1992 2
1994 5

2000 7

2002 2

33
13
19

2005 6

2006 10

16

38

24

70
1970-1972 60

72
1973-197473
73 10

1975-1977

77

1978-1982
1978 (Humphrey Hawkins Act)

79

70
4 NBER
1970 11 1975 3 1980 7 1982 11 GDP -1.7
1
3.7 GDP
19704Q
19751Q

19803Q

19823Q

-4Q

0.7

2.3

4.4

2.4

-3Q
-2Q

0.3
0.2

-0.2
-0.6

1.3
1.4

1.2
-2.5

0.7
-0.4

-1Q

0.4
-0.2

-1.9
-2.3

-0.7
-1.6

-1.2
-2.7

-0.9
-1.7

1Q
2Q

2.8
3.2

-1.8
0.8

0
1.7

-1.4
1.5

-0.1
1.8

3Q
4Q

3.1
4.5

2.5
6.1

2.9
4.4

3.2
5.7

2.9
5.2

3.27 4

GDP YOY %

19704Q

19751Q

19803Q

1982:3Q

5
4
3
2
1
0
-4Q

-1

-3Q

-2Q

-1Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

-2
-3
-4
-5

CPI 6-10%

3.8 CPI
19704Q
19751Q

19803Q

1982:3Q

-4Q
-3Q

6.2
5.82

10.39
10.86

12.18
13.29

10.95
8.92

9.93
9.72

-2Q

6.01

11.95

14.76

6.78

9.88

-1Q

5.66

12.34

14.38

7.06

9.86

1Q
2Q
3Q

5.57
4.71
4.64
4.08

10.25
9.39
7.91
6.94

12.6
12.52
10.49
9.55

5.04
3.83
3.6
2.58

8.37
7.61
6.66
5.79

4Q

3.27

6.07

10.95

2.86

5.79

3.28 4
CPI YOY %

20

19704Q

19751Q

19803Q

1982:3Q

15

10

0
-4Q
-5

-3Q

-2Q

-1Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

GDP 1
31%
3.9
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q

1982:3Q

-4Q
-3Q

-10.66%
-18.48%

-5.42%
-4.18%

-0.54%
-6.29%

21.65%
4.48%

1.26%
-6.12%

-2Q
-1Q

1Q

-12.15%
-9.90%

-7.67%
-13.29%

-4.10%
-18.14%

-11.34%
-2.69%

-8.82%
-11.01%

-10.57%
14.32%

-6.49%
5.64%

-14.70%
-6.21%

-10.57%
-7.41%

-10.58%
1.59%

2Q

11.80%

28.45%

1.67%

13.16%

13.77%

3Q
4Q

14.58%
25.92%

39.63%
48.33%

15.24%
21.65%

21.46%
29.64%

22.73%
31.39%

3.29 4
%

60%
50%

19704Q

19751Q

19803Q

1982:3Q

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-4Q

-3Q

-2Q

-1Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

-10%
-20%
-30%

+
3
72 73

3.30CRB

20

350
10%
3%
CRB

18
16

300

14

250

12
10

200

8
150

6
4

100

85

84

83

82

81

80

79

78

77

76

75

74

73

50

72

71

69-82 CPI
1
CRB CPI

2 CPI
3 CPI 82

4 CPI
3.10
1969

1970

1973

1974

1975

1979

1980

1981

1982

500

-11.4

0.1

-17.4

-29.7

31.5

12.3

25.8

-9.7

14.8

1.8

20.6

500
CRB

3.1
3.5

3.2
-1.1

3.2
48.6

3.4
0.5

3.6
-6.2

5.1
22.9

5.7
9.4

6.2
6.7
-18.4 -7.9

4.5
5.7

1.5
19.8

3.3

-14.2

-26.3

35.2

17.4

31.5

-3.5

21.4

6.3

21.3

2.0

-4.7

15.7

-2.2

0.5

2.3

35.5

7.0

14.2

2.1
6.2

7.5
11.0

12.3
9.1

14.7
11.3

9.3
13.5

5.8
10.3

4.9
6.2

7.9
8.8

3.8
2.9

-23.7
10.0

5.3
126.5
88.9

4.9
15.2
33.3

9.9
28.0
-32.6 14.9
-0.5 -12.4

12.0
25.7
38.4

10.9
52.5
52.2

500
-8.3

CPI

Arab

6.5
5.5
-14.4
0.0

8.0
5.7
6.5
0.0

67.0
103.2

72.3
123.2

2010 GDP CPI

3.31 2010 GDP

3.32 2010 CPI

3.33 2010 PPI

GDP 2010
2011
3.34 GDP 2010 2011

2010
2011 CPI 7 10
GDP 12%
11% 10% 8%8.5% 9% 5% 6%

GDP

3.35 GDP

3.36 GDP

3.37 GDP

3.38 GDP

1
GDP

3.391992 GDP
GDP:%

18
16
14
12
10

8
6
4

1995 GDP GDP


2.5-4% GDP 1%-2%
GDP
3.40 GDP

GDP

20
15
10

5
0
-5
-10

FAI FAI 85%


FAI

GDP

3.41 M1
M1:

50
40

RHS)

120
100
80

30

60

20

40

20
10
0

0
-20

FAI 50%

FAI

3.42

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

2009-07

2009-01

2008-07

2008-01

2007-07

2007-01

2006-07

2006-01

2005-07

2005-01

2004-07

3.43

200
150

120
100
80

100

60

50

40
20

-50

0
-20

3.44


RHS
120

160

100

120

80

80

60

40

40

20
0

-40

-20

-80

70
0.7
0.7
1997-99
FAI 3
3.45

RHS)

70%

140%

50%

130%

30%

120%
110%

10%

100%

-10%

90%

-30%

80%

3.46PPI

FAI

PPI(RHS)

100

15

80

10

60

5
40
0
20

-5

-20

-10

2010

3.47 M1

40
30

M1RHS)
140
100
60

20
20
10
0

3.48

-20
-60

110

90

70
50
30
10

-10
-30

3.49

RHS

60

115

50

110

40

105

30

100

20

95

10

90

85

FAI
20%-30%

3.50 FAI

100%
80%

60%
40%
20%

0%

3.51

80
60
40
20
0
-20

3.52

50
40
30

20
10
0
-10
-20

-30

3.53
GDP
100
80

60
40
20
0

3.54

18
16
14

12
10
8

6
4

3.55

35
30
25
20
15

10
5
0

3.56(2008-2009)

3.57

70
60
50

40
30
20

10
0

3.58

70.00

50.00
30.00
10.00
-10.00

3.59
RHS

20
16
12

4000
3500
3000

2500
2000

8
4

1500
1000
500

50%
20%

3.60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

3.61 GDP

3.62

RHS)
80

130

60

120

40

110

20
0

100

-20

90

-40

80

2
CPI PPIPPI
PPI PPI

3.63 PPI

PPI CRB
3.64 PPI CRB
CRB

PPIRHS)

500

15

450

10

400

350
300

250

-5

200

-10

70 02-04

PPI CPI()
PPI CPI
PPI CPI

3.65PPI CPI

PPI 2009
2010 2010
3.66PPI 101112 0.2
4.00
3, 3.65
5, 3.34

3.50
2, 3.34

3.00

4, 3.45

6, 3.03

1, 2.62

2.50

7, 2.01

2.00
8, 1.20
1.50
9, 0.60
1.00
10, 0.40
0.50

11, 0.20
12, 0.00

0.00
1

10

11

12

CPI 50%

3.67CPI 50%

3.68CPI

CPI CPI

CPI

3.69CPI

25

20

15

10

-1

-2

-5

-3

CPI 0809 10 V
CPI 2010 1.16 v
3.702010 10 0.411 0.312 0.5CPI
2.50
6, 2.12
7, 2.12
2.00
8, 1.61

5, 1.61

1.50

4, 1.30
1.00

9, 1.20

3, 1.10

1, 0.80

10, 0.80
2, 0.80

0.50

11, 0.50
12, 0.00

0.00
1

10

11

12

20 30
08
60

2009 2009
NN 2500
3000

3000 N
2009

2009
2009

2009

2010 2010

2010
23

4.1

FDI

1M0
2M1 M0
3M2 M1

M2 M1
4.1

M1M2
M2-M1

M2- GDP

M1 M2 2009 22 60.62
2010 M2
M0M1M2

4.2 M2 M2

10,000

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

M2/GDPM2/2009 GDP 33.53


M2 09 13 60.62 M2 GDP
1.801990 0.8 M2 1 GDP 1.8 M2 1 GDP
0.6 M2 1 GDP

1990 2009 M2 26.8 34

4.3M2/GDP
2
1.6

1.2
0.8

0.4
0

4.4M2/

M2/GDP

10

8
6
4
2
0

M2 M2

M1

M1 M2-M1
4.5M1 M2
45
40
35
30

25
20
15
10
5
0

M1(YOY)

M2(YOY)

M2(YOY)-M1(YOY)(

15
10
5
0

-5
-10

-15

M1 1992 M1 20.7%
93 M1 10% 25%2009 9 M1 29.5%


4.6M1
40
35

30
25
20
15
10
5
0

4.7M1
7000

6000

45

M1YOY)

40
35

5000

30

4000

25

3000

20

2000

15

10
1000

M1

2000-2001
2000 6 M1
1 2001 M1
M1 2000 6 M1

2010 M1
2010 12%2010 M1
2 M1
4.8M1 1011 1%12 3%

M2 - GDP M2
GDP
2007
M2-GDP 2007 10

4.9 M2-GDP
6,000

5,000

M2-GDP

25.0
20.0

4,000
15.0
3,000
10.0
2,000
1,000
0

5.0
0.0

4.10

50

40

30

20

10

4.11
14

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

M1-M2 M1
M2 M1
M2 43%13%
M1 63% M1-M2 -

4.12M1-M2

7000

M1-M2

6000

15
10

5000

4000
0
3000
-5

2000

1000

-10

-15

4.13M1-M2
140

15

130

M1-M2

10
5

120
0

110
-5

100

90

-10
-15

M1-M2

M1
>M2

M1 >M2

M1 >M2

4.2

4.14
40
%
30

20

10

4.15

5.0

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

4.16
800

600
400
200
0
-200

-400
-600
-800

2009 7
4.17

2,000

1,200

1,000

1,500
800

600

1,000

400
500

200
0

0
-200
-500

-400

2009

4.18%
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

2009 1-10 58811 65.9%


2009 10
54.5% 2008 3.2% 2009 1
2009 10 8.5%

4.3 2010
2009 2009

17

19

21

17

19

21

68000

76000

84000

68000

76000

84000

3.52

15.70

27.88

16.21

28.39

40.56

60

55
50

-5.11
-13.73

6.06
-3.58

4.19%
5

4
3
2
1
0
-1

4.20%
70%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

4.21%

17.22
6.57

7.58
-1.05

18.74
9.10

42.59
31.94

50%

100%

40%

90%

30%
80%
20%
70%

10%
0%

60%

07
09 2

94.8%

4.22%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

4.23
25

20

84%

78%

15
72%
10

66%

5
0

60%

4.24
%

%RHS)

11.60

9.40

11.20

9.20

10.80

9.00

10.40

8.80

10.00

8.60

4.25

%
200
160
120
80

40
0

4.4

FDI

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg
Bloomberg

ROE

Wind

ROE

Wind

TED
12 / NDF

Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Wind

Wind

4.26

500

400
300

200
100
0
-100
-200

4.2708
700
500

-FDI-

6000
5500
5000

300

4500
4000

100

3500
-1002002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01
3000
2500

-300

2000

-500

1500

-700

1000

05 7 21
4.28

700

10%

-FDI-

1NDF

500

8%
6%

300

4%
2%

100

0%
-1002000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-01
-2%
-4%

-300

-6%

-500

-8%

-700

-10%

4.2905 3 21%
25%
0511

20%

15%

10%

5%

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Oct-07

Jul-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

Oct-06

Jul-06

Apr-06

Jan-06

Oct-05

Jul-05

Apr-05

Jan-05

0%

2010 40%
3-5% NDF
10 3 18 1 2.4%
4.302010 1 2.4%
11%

1NDF

9%
7%
5%
3%

-5%

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Oct-07

Jul-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

Oct-06

Jul-06

Apr-06

Jan-06

Oct-05

Jul-05

-3%

Apr-05

-1%

Jan-05

1%

20052007 05
0506 07 210%74%48%
2010
20-30% 2010
05-06

4.3105
800

-FDI-
FDI

600

400

200

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Jan-05

Jul-04

(200)

Jan-04

(400)

(600)

(800)

2010
05-08

9900
07
2009

2009

2009

2007-2008

4.32 2000 2007

4.3399-01

4.342007

4.3509

4.36 2009
)

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000

2,000

4.37

123
456
PPIROE

4.5

/ ROE&ROA

/
PPI,CPI
ROE

4.382010

Wind

Wind


07
08
09 10

1
2
3

4.6
AEPS(

EPS% A%

1996

0.24

121

1997

0.25

35

1998

0.19

-25

-7

1999

0.21

18

2000

0.21

56

2001

0.15

-30

-24

2002

0.15

-19

2003

0.20

34

-4

2004

0.23

16

-15

2005

0.20

-12

-10

2006

0.24

17

113

2007

0.42

76

174

2008

0.34

-20

-63

2009

0.41

21

110

4.39
100%

80%
60%
40%
20%

0%
-20%
-40%

4.40
400%

300%

200%

100%

0%

-100%

4.41

350
300

400

250

200
150

100
50

A 50%

4.42
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

4.43

300

250

200
150
100
50
0
-50

ROE

ROE
ROE=
------
------

=/
/

/
/

/--------

------
-------

2009
2009 A 10798 2008 27.5% A
09 26% 09 31.6%
2009 7.27% 6.8% 40.5%
2009 2732 2008 378
2009 1125 2008
417 32% 3 17.9%
3 8.5%
09 Q4Q3Q2 -4.8%2.9% 36%
4.44

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

4.45

40%

30%

20%

10%

4.46

500

40%

600

30%
400

300

20%

200
10%
100
0

0%

4.47
/

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

4.48
16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

09 ROE 12.6% 10.05%2010


ROE 3.78% 3.01% ROE 10 09 20%

ROE 09 9.38% 10.22%

09 2010 4.194.023.983.82 3.63


ROE 08

4.49ROE

20%

ROE

ROE

16%
12%
8%

4%
0%

09 58.6% 02

4.50

60%

56%
52%
48%
44%
40%

4.51

20

16
12
8
4
0

4.52
600%

400%

200%

0%

-200%

-400%

4.53

4.54
80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

09 10
2010/5/10

/
4.55

20062007
2008
2009 2010 28%

GDP
PPI

PPI
PPI PPI

4.56 PPI

50

PPI

PPI

PPI

40
30
20

10
0
-10
-20
-30

4.57 PPI
%

PPIRHS

60

50

25

15

40
5

30
20
10

4.58 PPI PPI

-5

-15

%
9

30

PPI-PPIRHS

20

10

3
0
0

-10

-3

-20

4.59
%
180
140

M1%RHS)
40

30

100
20
60

20
-20

10


P/ EP/ E
P/ E

10-20
4.60 PE

50
2000

45
Price Earnings Ratio

Price-Earnings Ratio

40
1929

35
30

1966

25
20
15
10
5
0
1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Year

2010 4 A A
H
4.61A
A(, ,)
94APE
3
4
- 2SD

80
70
60
+ 1SD

50

Average

40
30
20

- 1SD
10

- 2SD

4.62

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1994

4.63 A
A
94APB
+1 SD
-1 SD

10
9
8
7
6

+ 1SD

Average

4
3
2

- 1SD

19
94
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09

4.64A/H
250
200
150
100
50
0

2010 4

4.65
10

18

225

PE

16

14

500

DAX

12
AEX
CAC
100
IBEX35
10

10PB
8
1

1.5

2.5

2010 4

4.66

4
3
2

1
0

4.67

4.68

4.69

TTM
TTM
TTM
TTM/TTM(RHS)

80

0.8
0.7

60
0.6
40

0.5
0.4

20

0.3
0

0.2

A
A 94
40 PB 3.8 A PE20-50 PB2-5
A

M-M

4.702008
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

0%

2010

10


2007

50
20-25

16-17
4.71

22%

4%

74%

2009

PE

1617

=
=

Rf

EPS PE EPS P /[( R f ERP ) G]

= ERP =G

M1/M2

A PE EPS
4.72A

APE(TTM,

ARHS

80

100%

70

80%

60

60%

50

40%

40

20%

30

0%

20

-20%

10

-40%

4.73A
%
120%

RHS)
50

40
80%
30
40%
20
0%
10

-40%

PE PB A PE PE

A PE
4.73A

PERHS)

7000

80

6000

70

60

5000

50

4000

40
3000

30

2000

20

1000

10

4.74A

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

4.75 M1/M2

M1/M2RHS

80

180%

70

160%

60

140%

50

120%

40

100%

30

80%

20

60%

10

40%

20%

2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
16-17

A
20

2007 5.30
2008

()() 3
3

1993 2 1994 7
1994
7 30

1996 10
12 16
44 55

1999 5 19
6
15

1999 6 45 48

?
?

2000

2007
2 3
2

5.1

2001

2002
2003

2004

2005

2004
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2010

2009
66230 66230 7749 2009

1776 13

17811787 13
1787

19 20

1902 95%

1913 16
1803 1500 (
200 )1913 16

1982
47.6% 32.9% 7.5%
3
20 70
1980

20 30

70
20 70
70

19 80

20 90
GDP

GDP
14 GDP 8%-9%
1920 15.4%1937 18.3%
1960 GDP
28.5% 1980 GDP 43.3% 1994 GDP 49%
5.2 GDP

/GDP

/GDP

1929

3100

10.0

1993

129100

38.0

1939

8800

19.4

1994

1325500

37.0

1949

38800

23.0

1995

1369200

37.0

1959

92100

26.8

1996

1416000

36.5

1969
1979

183600
503500

30.4
31.1

1997
1998

1468700
1518300

35.4
34.7

1984
1985

851800
1074200

34.4
34.8

1999
2000

1620800
1721600

34.3
34.2

1988

1039000

36.2

2001

1825600

35.3

1989

1099100

36.1

2002

1956600

36.3

1990

1180200

37.1

2003

2075500

36.7

1991

1234400

37.8

2004

2183800

36.4

1992

1271000

38.5

2005

36.6

1929 GDP 10%, 1949


23% 1985 34.8% 1992 38.5%

GDP 34%
OECD 1985 GDP 60%
30% 7.2 OECD 1960-2004
GDP
5.3OECD GDP %

1960

1985

1990

1995

2000

2004

1960-1984

21.4

25.4

36.6

33.3

36.2

34.5

39.2

35.3

35.7

36.7

35.9

36.9

35.7

34.4

50.7

47.7

51.5

49.0

56.0

50.3

51.4

49.8

49.9

48.8

30.3

27.5

54.4

46.5

51.9

45.3

51.4

47.2

48.6

48.7

48.7

48.7

28.9

26.0

47.0

38.9

48.8

43.0

48.5

43.2

41.1

41.1

39.9

40.6

24.8

27.3

59.5

57.0

55.9

54.6

59.5

56.7

53.9

56.2

55.1

56.8

26.6

29.7

41.5

40.5

48.3

53.7

59.0

55.1

48.8

55.9

50.8

52.7

34.6

34.9

52.4

48.5

49.3

47.7

54.4

49.0

51.6

50.1

53.5

49.8

32.4

35.0

47.2

45.4

44.5

42.5

48.3

45.1

45.1

46.4

47.0

43.3

17.4

21.1

43.2

34.6

50.2

34.5

51.0

40.9

52.1

47.9

49.8

43.3

28.2

36.4

35.6

33.4

41.7

38.5

43.0

40.1

42.7

45.2

47.3

47.3

1960-1984

28.0

24.8

54.6

44.3

42.9

40.1

41.2

39.1

31.5

35.9

33.7

35.2

30.1

28.8

58.4

44.1

54.4

42.6

53.4

45.8

46.9

46.2

48.7

45.4

18.3

20.7

32.7

31.2

31.8

33.9

35.9

31.2

38.3

30.8

37.5

31.0

1960-1982

30.5

32.5

56.4

53.0

43.3

48.1

45.0

47.6

38.6

44.6

45.2

44.6

33.7

33.9

60.2

54.4

52.5

47.4

49.3

45.3

43.4

45.6

46.6

44.5

29.9

33.1

48.1

56.1

54.0

56.2

51.5

54.9

42.7

58.2

46.7

58.1

1960-1981

17.0

17.6

43.9

33.3

40.6

34.2

43.4

38.1

43.7

40.8

46.5

43.5

1964-1984

18.8

18.1

39.3

33.2

42.5

38.6

44.1

37.8

38.9

38.1

38.8

38.6

31.0

32.1

64.5

59.4

61.9

65.3

67.7

60.8

57.4

62.4

57.3

58.7

17.2

23.3

30.9

34.4

30.0

30.6

34.6

33.3

33.9

36.3

36.7

35.2

1960-1984

32.3

30.0

47.8

42.8

42.2

40.7

45.0

39.1

37.5

41.3

43.9

40.7

17.0

26.3

36.7

31.1

37.1

32.8

37.0

33.8

34.2

35.8

36.4

31.7

26.6

27.7

47.3

42.9

40.2

37.3

42.1

38.2

39.1

39.4

40.8

37.3

OECD 1960 1995 GDP


1995 2004 GDP
1995
GDP
OECD 20 90
GDP GDP
GDP

20
10% 20

GDP

GDP
GDP

4(
)

19

2009
09

1998-2000
2009 9 2009 7284

5.1 GDP

(/GDP
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%

5.2/ GDP

-4

-8

-12

5.3 2009
8.00%

7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%

05
-0
1
05
-0
4
05
-0
7
05
-1
0
06
-0
1
06
-0
4
06
-0
7
06
-1
0
07
-0
1
07
-0
4
07
-0
7
07
-1
0
08
-0
1
08
-0
4
08
-0
7
08
-1
0
09
-0
1
09
-0
4
09
-0
7

0.00%

2009

5.4/GDP

6 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.2


5.1
4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5
5
4

4 3.8 3.8
3.6 3.5
3.3

3.01
2.5

2
1
0




5.5/GDP
7

6.4

6.4

6.3

6
5
4

3.4

3.3
2.8

2
2

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.1
0.6

1
0

5.6
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
1969

1996

5.7

5.8

2008

2019E

GDP 09
9500 GDP 3% 3%

5.9/GDP

07
34.7 07
11.2 1.5
16.8 08 4.45
21.25
2006
2.06

10

5.42008

1
2
3

4
5

1
23

1
234
5

1
2
3
4

IS-LM LM IS
IS IS IS IS
IS IS-LM

5.10IS

R
LM

R0

Y1

Y2

Y3

()

5.11


4 30%12 60%18
80
-
M0 6 -
910

5.5
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

+-0
5.6

30

2010 5 10

14.5%

15%

0.5%

29

2010 2 25
2010 1 18

14%

14.5%

0.5%

13.5%

14%

0.5%

13.5%

-0.5%

26

2008 12 25 14%
2008 12 5 16%

14%

-2%

25

2008 10 15 16.5%

16%

-0.5%

28
27

24

2008 9 25

17.5%

16.5%

-1%

23

2008 6 25

17%

17.5%

0.5%

22

2008 6 15

17%

17.5%

0.5%

21

2008 5 20

16%

16.5%

0.5%

20

2008 4 25

15.5%

16%

0.5%

19

15%

15.5%

0.5%

18

2008 3 25
2008 1 25

14.5%

15%

0.5%

17
16

2007 12 25 13.5%
2007 11 26 13%

14.5%
13.5%

1%
0.5%

15

13%

0.5%

14

2007 10 25 12.5%
2007 9 25 12%

13%

0.5%

13

2007 8 15

11.5%

12%

0.5%

12

2007 6 5

11%

11.5%

0.5%

11

2007 5 15

10.5%

11%

0.5%

10

2007 4 16

10%

10.5%

0.5%

2007 2 25

9.5%

10%

0.5%

2007 1 15

9%

9.5%

0.5%

7
6

2006 11 15

8.5%
8%

9%
8.5%

0.5%
0.5%

7.5%

8%

0.5%

2006 7 5
2004 4 25

7%

7.5%

0.5%

2003 9 21

6%

7%

1%

1999 11 21

8%

6%

-2%

1998 3 21

13%

8%

-5%

2006 8 15

5.7

17

2008 12 23 0.27

16

2008 11 27

15

2008 10 30 0.27

14

2008 10 9

0.27

13

2008 9 16

0.27

12

2007 12 21 0.27

11

2007 9 15

0.27

10

2007 8 22

0.27

9
8

2007 7 21
2007 5 19

0.27
0.27

7
6

2007 3 18
2006 8 19

0.27
0.27

5
4

2006 4 28
2005 3 17

0.27% 5.85%

2004 10 29 0.27

1993 7 11

1993 5 15

2.58

9.18% 10.98%
2.18%
0.82

5.12

2005 -2008 2008

2008

2008

2008 9

2008 9 3500 10 1800


2009 1
1.62 7667
2500 13 4985
2008 2008 11
4769 12 7400 1 3

2009 2 3
2 5510 3 9943 13
2732 4061

2200

09

5918 6645

2005-2008
1005 2006
5.58% 6.12% 2.25%
2.52%2007
2.52% 4.14% 6.12% 7.47%
22005
1.62% 0.99% 1.89%2006
0.5 9%2007
10 0.5
1 2007 14.5%2008 1 16 3 18
0.5

32005
1237 4587.9 2006
56.66 94.58
37.92 2007
691 2007 8 29
6000 12 20
41 7

42005
7 21 8.1100 8.07025 18
7 21
2005 7 21
2005 7 21 1900 1
8.1100 9 23
3%
1%
4%
2007 5 18
5 21
8 17

1-/
08 14%
92 96
96 20% 92
1993
61.8%
13.2% 14.7% 1994 21.7%

1993

1996

2002
08 07
12

07 11%
5.13
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

20083Q

20082Q

20081Q

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

0%

1-/
08 A 25%
28%
92 02
02
93
2002
50%
2008 33%
25%2009 1 1

ROE
5.1492
40%

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%

5.15 500 08 34%

20083Q

20082Q

2007

20081Q

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

10%

60%

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

99
19

00
20

01
20

02
20

03
20

04
20

05
20

06
20

07
20

08
20

(boom)
(bust)

600

fiat money

fiat money

fiat money

GDP


1998 2008
1998

20%
GDP

1974
1990

70 90

2010 2

2010 2009

2010

GDP

1980 1994
2006

()

(
GDP )

94
94

2007 5446 2377


5.16

100

80
60
40
20
0

5.17

100
80
60
40

20
0

5.82006

295.23
24.23
194.39

4485.18
1296
1966.96

6.18%
1.84%
8.99%

93.82%
98.16%
91.01%

5.61

902.07

0.62%

99.38%

2007

241.2
11445.04

1882.7
38120.36

11.36%
23.09%

88.64%
76.91%

5.9

FS

L
FS

FS

FS L
L
SF
S

L
CS
C

FS
FL
FL

FS
FL

L
FS

CS

FS

FS

FS

FS

F
F
FS

FS

CF C
S
SF FS

FS

FS

CF C

FS

S
CF SC

FS

FS
F

FC

FS

FS

L
L

FS

FS

FS SL

L
FS SL

L
FS

SL
FS

FS

FS F
L
FS F

F
FS
L
F

F=/S=/L=
C=

2008

5.18

123
4

5.19

100
95
90

60 60

45 45
42

40 40

GDP
2010

2009
GDP 2009

5.20

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2010

2009 12 7

2009 12 9 2 5

2009 12 14

2009 12 17
50%

2010 1 5
(REITs)
2010 1 10

40%
2010 1 12 0.5%
2010 1 13

2010 1 20 ()


2010 1 21

2010 1 25 9

2010 1 31

2010 3 22

2010 3 23 78
15
2010 4 2 90

2010 4 7

2010 4 11

2010 4 14

2010 4 15 50%
1.1 90 30%

2010 4 17

2010 4 19

103 2 50%
07 9 3 90 30%4

5 7
238 85 149

2009 2010
2009

2008

139.83 182.85 241.42

5.21

3000-4000

5.22

20000

16000

12000
8000

4000
0

5.23

40
36
32

28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

5.24

200

175
150
125
100
75
50
25

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

5.25


200

175
150
125
100
75
50
25

0
0

10 11 12

5.26

200

175
150
125
100
75
50
25

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

5.27

200

175
150
125
100
75
50
25

0
0

10 11 12

139.83 182.85 241.42


5.9

1 6.6
63.46
2

3 63.46
22.5%
564.1
4
139.83
182.85 241.42
5.10
6.6

6.60

80%

1.65
20%

8.25
100%

63.46

13%

5.11

7374

5018
2
6342
5367




100% 3587.0
26451.
100.00
22.48
100%
89.43
100.00

6.80
4368.3
2191.8
8.29%
33.62
10.18 98.36
7.48%
4
60
%
%
8.60
3261.0
2068.2
7.82%
15.50
5.93
88.76
8.54%
%
3
3
%
7.28
3002.3
1611.3
6.09% 14.73
4.77
86.40
7.03%
%
3
8
%
1672 22.68
%
8
3510
9
5872
22.20
20.69
%
20.87
90.88
23.05

7
%
%
%
%
5.12

22.00%

22.20%

22.50%

22.68%

23.00%

55.00
500.00
495.56
488.89
484.94
478.26
60.00
545.45
540.61
533.33
529.03
521.74
63.46
576.92
571.80
564.10
559.55
551.84
65.00
590.91
585.66
577.78
573.11
565.22
70.00
636.36
630.71
622.22
617.20
608.70
5.13
564.10
/

2006

2005-2006

89.43

48.00

10.63%

6.36%

936.00

139.83

24.79%

22.48

69.27

13.82%

11.84%

1744.50

182.85

32.42%

62.05

90.83

54.01%

23.51%

788.10

241.42

42.80%

137.43

1.77%

1.95%

91.75

1.13%

1.14%

152.88

23.24%

11.59%

2008

2011 11
2008 12 1 2012 11
22 2009 2 1
2013 1

2009
2009
2010
4
2000 4
4.8 6200 3000 9200

1200 /4 6200

//
()/
()
2010

2010

20 80 90

1
2
3
A
2010 A

10
85%

6.1

22%

4%

74%

6.2

25%

6%

69%

6.3
100%

85.1%

80%
60%
40%
20%

2013-10

2013-05

2012-12

2012-07

2012-02

2011-09

2011-04

2010-11

2010-06

2010-01

2009-08

2009-03

2008-10

2008-05

2007-12

2007-07

2007-02

2006-09

2006-04

2005-11

2005-06

2005-01

0%

1
A
A
IPO

IPO
2009 9 09
IPO 2842 2006 2677 2007 7985
2008 3516 2009 6
2010 2007
A
2010

6.4IPO
1600
1400

7000

IPO()
()

1200

6000
5000

1000
4000
800
3000
600
400
200

20
06
-0
20 5
06
-0
20 8
06
-1
20 1
07
-0
20 2
07
-0
20 5
07
-0
20 8
07
-1
20 1
08
-0
20 2
08
-0
20 5
08
-0
20 8
08
-1
20 1
09
-0
20 2
09
-0
20 5
09
-0
20 8
09
-1
20 1
10
-0
2

2000
1000
0

6.5
()

()

()

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500

2000
1500

1000
500
0

2009
7 2010 4 3000 300
2010
250 2010 2000

6.6
700

7000

600

6000

500

5000

400

4000

300

3000

200

2000

100

1000
0

20
06
20 -0 5
06
20 -0 7
06
20 -0 9
06
20 -1 1
07
20 -0 1
07
20 -0 3
07
20 -0 5
07
20 -0 7
07
20 -0 9
07
20 -1 1
08
20 -0 1
08
20 -0 3
08
20 -0 5
08
20 -0 7
08
20 -0 9
08
20 -1 1
09
20 -0 1
09
20 -0 3
09
20 -0 5
09
20 -0 7
09
20 -0 9
09
20 -1 1
10
20 -0 1
10
-0
3

6.7

(RHS)

700

16

600

14

500

12
10

400

300

200

100

A PB 2
2 PB 09 7 2010 5 A PB
3 50 2010
A PB 2.5 30
240
6.8
120

100

80

60

40

20

()

-20

PB()
0

20
06
-0
20 1
06
-0
20 4
06
-0
20 7
06
-1
20 0
07
-0
20 1
07
-0
20 4
07
-0
20 7
07
-1
20 0
08
-0
20 1
08
-0
20 4
08
-0
20 7
08
-1
20 0
09
-0
20 1
09
-0
20 4
09
-0
20 7
09
-1
20 0
10
-0
20 1
10
-0
4

-40

GDP
6.9


8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%

0%

6.10 GDP
/GDP

140%
120%

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

2
1 2007
22010
3
2010 6
6.2
A

()

()

()

795.2326

603.5395

191.6932

2005
2006

65.20%

72.30%

42.80%

1313.559

1039.808

273.7505

2007

116.80%

139.80%

29.40%

2847.572

2493.467

354.1057

2008

20.10%

24.90%

-13.80%

3418.527

3113.262

305.2643

2009

13.80%

11.70%

35.40%

3890.08

3476.682

413.3984

2010E

30.57%

30.00%

35.40%

5079.428

4519.687

559.7414

267388.1

204289.1

63098.97

1.90%

2.21%

0.89%

2010 4
30
2010

6.11 2010 6
PE

PE

1/

50
40

30
20

10
0

2008 2010 4
30
6.12

180

()

7000

()

160

6000

140
5000

120
100

4000

80

3000

60

2000

40
1000

20

2010-04

2010-01

2009-10

2009-07

2009-04

2009-01

2008-10

2008-07

2008-04

2008-01

2007-10

2007-07

2007-04

2007-01

2006-10

2006-07

2006-04

2006-01

2009
62% 30 18.6
6.13
64%

62%

60%

58%

20

07
20 06
07
20 08
07
20 10
07
20 12
08
20 02
08
20 04
08
20 06
08
20 08
08
-1
20 0
08
20 12
09
20 02
09
20 04
09
20 06
09
20 08
09
20 10
09
20 12
10
20 02
10
-0
4

56%

1-10 5.5
100500 300
10~12 11
18.6 11 =200
6.3
2009-06

2009-09

2009-12

2010-03

:A :1

35.02%

35.88%

31.15%

30.55%

:A :1-10

51.19%

50.68%

52.32%

52.43%

:A :10-50

11.67%

11.40%

13.76%

14.14%

:A :50-100

1.29%

1.25%

1.66%

1.73%

:A :100-500

0.75%

0.72%

0.99%

1.03%

:A :500-1000

0.05%

0.05%

0.07%

0.08%

:A :1000

0.03%

0.02%

0.04%

0.04%

()

10.68

10.26

12.70

13.07

()

4752.34

4954.65

5012.88

5177.05

()

50774.25

50831.25

63670.37

67642.78

06 1 09 6 EVIEWS

1-7
6.14 A
40

80

30

60

20

40

10

20

0
2009-6-30

2009-4-30

2009-2-27

2008-12-31

2008-10-31

2008-8-29

2008-6-30

2008-4-30

2008-2-29

2007-12-28

2007-10-31

2007-8-31

-20

2007-6-29

2007-4-30

2007-2-28

2006-12-29

2006-10-31

2006-8-31

2006-6-30

2006-4-28

2006-2-28

-10

-20

-40

-30

-60

06 9 09 6
6
2

6.15 A
7000

25000

6000
20000
5000
15000

4000
3000

10000

2000
5000
1000

()

0
2009-5-27

2009-3-31

2009-1-23

2008-11-28

2008-9-26

2008-7-31

2008-5-30

2008-3-31

2008-1-31

2007-11-30

2007-9-28

2007-7-31

2007-5-31

2007-3-30

2007-1-31

2006-11-30

2006-9-29

2006-7-31

2006-5-31

2006-3-31

2006-1-25


6.16
300

6000

25%

5000

20%

4000

15%

3000
10%

2000

1000

5%

0%

6.17
300

6,000
5,000

41%
40%
39%

4,000
3,000
2,000

38%
37%
36%
35%

1,000
0

34%
33%

6.18

180

()

7000

()

160

6000

140
5000

120
100

4000

80

3000

60

2000

40
1000

20

2010-04

2010-01

2009-10

2009-07

2009-04

2009-01

2008-10

2008-07

2008-04

2008-01

2007-10

2007-07

2007-04

2007-01

2006-10

2006-07

2006-04

2006-01

6.19

RHS)

1,000

20

800

16

600

12

400

200

07
,
2010
0

6.20
25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

2010-05

2010-03

2010-01

2009-11

2009-09

2009-07

2009-05

2009-03

2009-01

2008-11

2008-09

2008-07

2008-05

2008-03

2008-01

2007-11

2007-09

2007-07

2007-05

2007-03

2007-01

2006-11

2006-09

2006-07

2006-05

2006-03

2006-01

2010 34

80% 1000
6.21
86%

84%
82%
80%
78%
76%

2010-04

2010-03

2010-02

2010-01

2009-12

2009-11

2009-10

2009-09

2009-08

2009-07

2009-06

2009-05

2009-04

74%

2007
M2 8
15
6.22M2

/M2

20%
16%

12%
8%

4%
0%

5.30

6.23

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
06.12 07.1 07.2 07.3 07.4 07.5 07.6 07.7 07.8 07.9 07.10 07.11 07.12

<120

>120

30 30
90%

6.2430

4000

100%
90%

3500

80%
70%

3000

60%
50%

2500

40%
30%

2000

20%

30

10%
10-20

09-28

09-14

08-31

08-17

08-03

07-20

07-06

06-22

06-08

05-21

05-07

04-22

04-08

03-24

03-10

02-24

02-10

01-20

01-06

12-19

0%
12-05

1500

6000

6.25
3500

80%

70%
3000
60%
2500
50%
2000
40%

()
()
10-19

09-25

09-11

08-28

08-14

07-31

07-17

07-03

06-19

06-05

05-20

05-06

04-21

04-07

03-23

03-09

02-23

02-09

01-19

30%

01-05

1500

40
1929
1002 614
338
//

6.26

80,000

14%

70,000

12%

60,000

10%

50,000
40,000
30,000

8%
6%

20,000

4%

10,000

2%

0%

WIND

78 206.4 07 21738
78 2.9% 06 7.2% 32 3

7.1

07
-08
7.2 PPI CRB %

7.3

2003 0.995

97-98
7.12003
ASEAN
0.995

0.98

0.98

0.97

0.97

0.94

0.92

0.89

0.81

0.74

www.aseansec.org

97-98 14%
98

7.497-98

7.597-98 14%

GDP
1978 -1980 1987 -1991 2007
GDP

7.6

80
1985 2 1988 11 113%

2008
97-98

7.7

7.8
8.5

260

240

8.0

220
200

7.5

180
160

7.0
6.5

2005-01
2005-03
2005-05
2005-07
2005-09
2005-11
2006-01
2006-03
2006-05
2006-07
2006-09
2006-11
2007-01
2007-03
2007-05
2007-07
2007-09
2007-11
2008-01
2008-03
2008-05
2008-07
2008-09

140
120

1985 2 1988 11 113% 05 5


21%

7.2

FODG

PCE CHNC

PITL YOY

RSTAXMOM

NHSLTOT

NBAVBASC

INJCJC

NFP T

USURTOT

OECD 12

OLE3US

OECD 12

ECRI
OECD G7 12

ECRDUSWL

ECRI

OLE3G7

OECD G7 12

1971

35 1

1971 8 15

7.91971
180

160
140
120
100
80

09

06

03

00

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

76

73

70

67

60

1973 3

60%
10% 40%
20% 40% 30%

7.10

7.11 MSCI

130

MSCI AxJ

0
100

120

200
110

300

100

400

90

500
600

80

700
09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

96

95

94

800
93

92

70

7.12

7.13

7.14

7.15

7.3

7.16
180

160

130

160

100

140

70

120

40

100

10

09

06

03

00

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

60

76

-50

73

80

70

-20

M2
M2
7.17

1860

160

/()

130

1660

1460

100

1260

70

1060
860

40

660

10

460

09

06

03

00

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

76

60

73

260

-50

70

-20

7.18 M2
50

180

40

160

30
140

20
10

120

100

-10

M2

-20

09

06

03

00

97

60
94

91

88

85

82

79

73

76

()

-30
70

80

7.19 M2
60

M2

50

40
30
20
10
0

7.20

05

02

99

96

93

90

87

84

81

78

75

72

-10

1800
1600

1400
1200
1000
800
600

()

400

()

200

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80

8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
-12000

7.21
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Kospi

1900

1700
1500
1300
1100
900
700
500

09

06

03

00

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

76

300

03-04 03 8 03 10 04
1 2

7.22
1.3

60000

1.25

50000

1.2

40000

1.15

30000

1.1

20000

1.05

10000

Au
g-0
4

Jun
- 04

Ap
r-0
4

Feb
- 04

3
De
c -0

Oc
t-0
3

Au
g-0
3

Jun
- 03

0
Ap
r-0
3

Feb
- 03

2005

2006

7.23
()

330

280
230
180
130

06

04

02

00

98

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

76

74

80

72

70

15
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5

7.24
370

90

70

320

270

50

220

30

07

05

03

01

99

97

95

93

91

89

87

85

83

81

70

79

-30

77

120

75

-10

73

170

71

10

2004-2008

97

7.25

120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

96

95

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200

7.26
()

45

115

40
110

35
30

105

25
100

20
15

95

10
90

5
0

85

08-09

08-01

07-05

06-09

06-01

05-05

04-09

04-01

03-05

02-09

02-01

01-05

00-09

00-01

3
1
2
3

CPI CPI

7.27 M2

CPI

30

()

150
140

25

130
20

120

15

110

10

100
90

80
0

70

-5

60
74- 75- 76- 77- 78- 79- 81- 82- 83- 84- 85- 86- 88- 89- 90- 9101 03 05 07 09 11 01 03 05 07 09 11 01 03 05 07

7.28 CPI
2000

12

/
CPI()

10

1500

1000

500

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

CPI 1998
7.29 CPI
120

30

CPI()

110

25
20

100

15

90

10
5

80

0
-5

70

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2007 6 2008 9
WTI
88%
7.30
160

1.7

140

1.6
1.5

120
100

1.4
1.3

80

1.2

60

1.1

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

0.8

02

01

0.9

00

20

99

40

1970-2000 4 1973-19741977-19811986-1989
1993-1995 33
2003 4 5
2-5
7.31
600

60

GSCI

500

80

09

01
01

07

99
99

05

97
97

03

95
95

180

93

91

160

89

100

87

140

85

200

83

120

81

300

79

100

77

400

7.32
40%

20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%

09

07

05

03

93

91

89

87

85

83

81

79

-80%


7.33

134
180

160
140
120
100
80

09

06

03

00

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

76

73

70

67

60


1-2

John Connolly 71 The dollar is our currency but your problem.

FDI
90 00

00-01
GDP

7.35
6

GDP

()

2
0
-2
-4

06

03

20

20

97

00
20

94

19

19

88

91
19

19

85

82

19

79

19

19

76

73

19

19

19

70

-6

160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

7.3699-03 GDP
10

GDP

8
6
4
2
0
-2

06

03

00

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

76

73

70

67

-4

160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

/ 57.6%98-03

/
7.37 03
1.7

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3

GDP-GDP

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

7.38
4.2

3.6

9.1

11.9
57.6

13.6

08

7.39

7.40

7.41
180

12

160

10

08

06

04

02

0
00

60
98

96

80

94

92

100

90

88

120

86

84

140

7.42
2.2

7
6
5

1.8

1.6

3
2

1.4

01
-06
04
-06
07
-06
10
-06
01
-07
04
-07
07
-07
10
-07
01
-08
04
-08
07
-08
10
-08
01
-09

1.2

00-01

3 LIBOR LIOBR

7.43/
1

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8

4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2

-09
Jan

-08
Jan

-07
Jan

-06
Jan

-05
Jan

-04
Jan

-03
Jan

-02
Jan

-01
Jan

Jan

-00

-3

-99
Jan

3Libor

7.44
10

1.7
1.6

0.5

1.5

1.4

-0.5

1.3
1.1
Ap
r-

De
c

05
Au
g-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ap
r- 0
6
Au
g-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ap
r- 0
7
Au
g-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ap
r- 0
8
Au
g-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ap
r- 0
9

1.2

-1.5
-0 4

-1

98 08

7.45
1.6

VIX
Tibor

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

94

0
92

90

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

7.46/ SP500

500

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600

02
-04
06
-04
10
-04
02
-05
06
-05
10
-05
02
-06
06
-06
10
-06
02
-07
06
-07
10
-07
02
-08
06
-08
10
-08
02
-09

130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80

07 02
07
98-03

7.47

VIX 90 VIX
90 VIX
7.48VIX

VIX

50

4.8
4.7

40

4.6

30

4.5
20

4.4

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

4.2
94

0
92

4.3

90

10

7.49VIX

09

07

05

03

01

99

95

93

91

97

VIX

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8

07 2 08 4
90-91 98 90 07 VIX
71% 07 2 08 4 -97%
82%

7.50VIX

40

VIX12
12

35

-50

30

25
20

50

15

100

10

150

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

92

200
91

0
90

-100

7.51VIX
VIX12
12

40

-100
-50

30

20

50
100

10

150

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

94

92

200

90

01

7.52VIX
VIX12
12

40

1200

35

1000

30

800

25

600

20

400

15

200

10

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

-200
92

0
91

90

7.53VIX
VIX

bp

80

1200

70
60

1000
800

50
40
30

600
400

20
10

200

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

0
01

00

CFTC

7.54
50000

NYCE

140000

40000

CME

120000
100000

30000

80000

20000

60000

10000

40000

20000

-10000

-08
12

-08
09

-08
06

-08
03

-07
12

-07
09

-07
06

-07
03

-06
12

09

06

03

12

-06

-60000
-06

-40000

-40000
-06

-20000

-30000

-05

-20000

09
2008 M2
M2

AMLFTALF
4420
12
7.55

200

GDP%
150
100
50
0

130%
30%
02 08 9 6
160% 30%
50%

7.56

3000

2500
2000
1500
1000
500

-0 9
Jun

-0 8
De
c-0
8

Jun

-0 7
De
c-0
7

Jun

-0 6
De
c-0
6

Jun

-0 5
De
c-0
5

Jun

-0 4
De
c-0
4

Jun

-0 3
De
c-0
3

Jun

De
c-0
2

99
01 02 03

7.57

0.4

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1

-09
Fe
b

-08
Fe
b

-07
Fe
b

-06
Fe
b

-05
Fe
b

-04
Fe
b

-03
Fe
b

-02
Fe
b

-01
Fe
b

Fe
b

-00

-0.2

08 9
09 3

2009

21

7.58

(79-81)

(82)

(85)

(90)

ERM92)

()

()

(93)

(94)

(94)

(95)

(97)

(98)

LTCM(98)

90
1990 1979
1 2.95
92 9
10% 12%9 16
10-20
97
70

7.59
3.2

14
/

12
10

2.8
8
2.6
6
2.4
4
2.2

Jan
-9
Ap 2
r-9
2
Jul
-92
Oc
t-9
2
Jan
-9
Ap 3
r-9
3
Jul
-93
Oc
t-9
3
Jan
-9
Ap 4
r-9
4
Jul
-94
Oc
t-9
4
Jan
-9
Ap 5
r-9
5
Jul
-95
Oc
t-9
5
Jan
-9
Ap 6
r-9
6
Jul
-96
Oc
t-9
6
Jan
-9
Ap 7
r-9
7
Jul
-97
Oc
t-9
7

90
7.6097 7 1

98 8 flight-to-safety

(LTCM) LTCM 60

7.61 LTCM

90 94

98
LTCM
94

Wallstreet Gordon Gekko


Greed is Good
()

LTCM 08

7.62

8
6

HFRI%

4
2
0
-2
-4
-6

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

94

92

90

-8
-10

7.63
7000
6000

BP

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

LTCM

mis-pricing

7.64

7.65
80%

500

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

96

0%

71

BDI

BDI

A
A

1890

1907

1994 1995
-0.18
1995 6 30
18 10 3.5% 1.9%
20000 14000

2
3

456 41
41 19

TED 14 180 150

19

99%

5 10 3

20 90

0.78 0.5
0.13

-0.26-0.13
0.5-0.18
0.5
0.73

0.10 55%

-0.07-0.15-0.23
-0.27
25%
-0.27

-0.23
-0.25

A
8.1
500225

100%
60%

20%
-20%
-60%
-100%

8.2
500

100%
60%

20%
-20%
-60%
-100%

8.3A 06
500

100%
60%

20%
-20%
-60%
-100%

8.4A 07 QDII

100%
60%

20%
-20%
-60%
-100%

--A

8.5

08
03 03 98
1%
10 60% 04 2
20%
8.6

300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

8.703-04

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

Ma
y -0
3
Jun
-03
Jul
-03
Au
g-0
3
Sep
-03
Oc
t-0
3
No
v -0
3
De
c -0
3
Jan
-04
Fe
b-0
Ma 4
r-0
4
Ap
r-0
Ma 4
y -0
4
Jun
-04
Jul
-04
Au
g-0
4
Sep
-04

15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000

08 03

8.808-09

20000

300000

18000

250000

16000

200000

14000

150000

12000

100000

10000

50000
0

Oc
t-0
8
No
v -0
8
No
v -0
8
De
c -0
8
De
c -0
8
Jan
-09
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Fe
b-0
Ma 9
r-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
Ma 9
y -0
Ma 9
y -0
Ma 9
y -0
9

8000

03-04 03 8 03 10

04 1 2

8.903-04

1.3

60000

1.25

50000

1.2

40000

1.15

30000

1.1

20000

1.05

10000

Au
g-0
4

Jun
- 04

Ap
r-0
4

Feb
- 04

3
De
c -0

Oc
t-0
3

Au
g-0
3

Jun
- 03

0
Ap
r-0
3

Feb
- 03

08-09 08 10

8.1008-09

1.45

1.4
1.35
1.3

250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0

Oc
t-0
8
No
v -0
8
No
v -0
8
De
c -0
8
De
c -0
8
Jan
- 09
Jan
- 09
Feb
- 09
Feb
-0
Ma 9
r-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y -0
9
Ma
y -0
9
Ma
y -0
9

1.25

300000

41%

500-800 /

8.11 41%07.10-08.9


,
6%

, 38%

, 26%

, 27%

, 3%

8.1207.10-08.9
, , 2%
2%

, 1%

, 8%

, 3%
, 35%

, 8%

, 16%
, 22%

8%

8.13 06 5% 8%
100%

90%

80%

70%
60%

50%
40%

30%

20%

10%
0%

0510-069

0610-079

0710-089

A 1990 A 3

97 00
05 A
8.14
7000

RHS

35000

6000

30000

5000

25000

4000

20000

3000

15000

2000

10000

1000

5000

06
AH
AH AH 06 3
5 AH 1

8.15 AH
250
200
150
100
50
0

8.1606 -09 300 5

300

RHS)

6000

30000

5000
25000
4000

3000

20000

2000
15000

1000
0

10000

AH 2 1H 15%
A 2AH

A AH
A
03-07 08-09
8.17 A
/

RHS

35000
30000

1.5

25000
20000

15000
10000

0.5

5000

A
A
8.18 AH

10

6
4
2
0

8.19 AH
50

40

HRHS)

20
16

30
12
20

10
0

8
4

A
2008 11 28
A

A 70

09 0%

A A
A
QFIIQDIIA

A
108

2 2-10

2007 VIX
2008 2009

8.20 VIX
6VIX

22-10RHS

50

100

40

30
-100
20
-200

10
0

-300

8.21 A

7000

7-2
2

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000

1.5

1
0.5

1000
0

10-1 1

8.2210-1
3.0

4.5
1

2.5

10-1
4.0

2.0
3.5
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.5
0.5
2.0

0.0
-0.5

1.5

10-7

10-1

09-7

09-1

08-7

08-1

07-7

07-1

06-7

06-1

8.23
3.5
AAA
AA+
AA

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
08-11

09-02

09-05

8.24

09-08

09-11

10-02

10-05

3.0
3AAA
3AA+

2.5

3AA
2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
08-3

08-6

08-9

08-12

09-3

09-6

09-9

09-12

10-3

10-6

07 07-08

07 11

8.25
4.0

7,000
06

3.5

300

6,000

3.0

5,000

2.5
4,000
2.0
3,000
1.5
2,000

1.0

10-8

10-5

10-2

09-11

09-8

09-5

09-2

08-11

08-8

08-5

08-2

07-11

07-8

07-5

0.0

07-3

1,000

06-11

0.5

2010 6
10%

8.26


10
CPI
8.27 10
500

10RHS

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

8.28
6

LIBOR-OIS
OIS

TED Spread 3 LIBOR


3

LIBOR TED

CDS CDS
CDS

8.29 CDS
CDS
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

8.30TED
5

TED

4
3
2
1
0

8.31

5.0
4.5
4.0
3

3.5
3.0
2.5

2.0
1.5
1.0

0.5
0.0

10-6
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
09-12
09-11
09-10
09-9
09-8
09-7
09-6
09-5
09-4
09-3
09-2
09-1
08-12
08-11
08-10
08-9
08-8
08-7
08-6

8.32 7
3000

12

7()

2500
10

2000
1500

1000
500

0
4

-500
-1000

-1500
-2000

10-7

10-1

09-7

09-1

08-7

08-1

07-7

07-1

06-7

06-1

05-7

05-1

04-7

8.33

10000

RHS)
1

8000

0.9

6000

0.8

4000

0.7

2000

0.6

8.34
8000

RHS

1100
900

6000

700
4000

500
2000

300

100

8.35

10RHS

160

5
4.5

120

4
80
3.5

40

2.5

8.36

RHS)

1200

130

1000

120

800
600

400

110
100
90
80

200

70

60

8.37
500

RHS

1600

1.1

1400

1200
1000

0.9

0.7

800

600

0.5

8.38

8.39

NDF
8.40 NDF
9

1NDF

8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5

BDI
8.41 BDI

WIND

NASDAQ

INDU
CCMP

500
CBOE 500

SPX
VIX

500

S5COND

500

S5CONS

500
500

S5ENRS
S5HLTH

500
500

S5FINL
S5INDU

500IT
500

S5INFT
S5TELS

500
500

S5MATR
S5UTIL

10
2

USGG10YR
USGG2YR

10 AAA SPWC3A10
10 BB+ SPWC2B10

USGG3M

USSOC

3 LIBOR

US0003M

CDX 10

CDX XO CDSI S10 5Y

FCPOTOTS

CDX 10

CDX IG CDSI S10 5Y

Ted

.TEDSP
SPBDCP

15 A1+/P1

FCPONCS
ACPA015Y

FDTR

90 A1+/P1

ACPA090Y

SPWC2B10-US
GG10YR

10

USGG10YR-US

90

SPWC3A10-USGG10YR
ACPA090Y-USGG3M

-2 GG2YR

-3

DAX 30
3

DAX
GETB1

10
2

GECU10YR
GECU2YR

10
-2

GECU10YR-GE
CU2YR

ECB 1

EURR002W

FTSE 100

UKX

10

GUKG10

GUKTB3MO

GUKG2

10
-2

GUKG10-GUKG
2

BOE

UKBRBASE

NIKKEI 225

NKY

BOJDTR

BDI

BDIY

SPGSIN

CMX

LAA

CMX

HGA

CRB

CRY

COA CMDTY

WTI

CLA CMDTY

COY

WTI
EUR/GBP

USCRWTIC
EURGBP

EUR/JPY

Golds
EURJPY

DXY

EUR/USD

EURUSD

USD/GBP

USDGBP

USD/JPY

USDJPY

/
KOSPI

AUDUSD
KOSPI

USDBRL

--

19

200 500 150

9.1

2003

10
30%

P/E
P/E 20
20 10 P/E
P/E
50 P/E 64

32 P/E

2005 A 2007

50% 50%
10 30 200% 350%
4.5

50

9.2

9.3

3
4

8
9


10

9.4

9.5

OK

20%
23 28 33
.

1
2
3

10

5 25

2009 A

-
-

9.6
10 21


14
12
10
8
6
4
2

9.7

25

20
15
10

5
0

9.8

14
12
10
8
6
4
2

9.9 09 11

25
20
15
10
5
0

70%
50%

I II

5-10
70%

30 10
40


30

12.5%

20 20

2007
90
50 70
70
1980

1989

2007 1990

1929

2008

1998 98 08
10.1: 1997-98 2007-08
1997-1998

2007-2008

14%

14% 21%08 10 19.2%

07 8 80

18 97 1 -98 7 48 87

3 -91 3

50%

WTO

1500

07 2

2/3

213.7

08
1997-1998

2008

1861
0.5 1.05
1861

20

100

1982
8 1961
1961 1982 21

1982

100
20
20 10


20 10

1921
22 1899 GDP 383%
GDP 88%1982 8 1964 4
70%1982 8 20
1921 1932 1949
14

1974 12 9 570 1982 8 9


769 1974 15%

20
100

(1841-1997)2007

1907 1907
1920-1940 20
20 1929

60

40
100 40

20 30 1900 1932

30
1929 1950

10.1 20 50

1900-1950
1951-2000

400

14000

350

12000

300

10000

250

8000

200
6000

150

4000

100

2000

50
0
Feb-48

Feb-45

Feb-42

Feb-39

Feb-36

Feb-33

Feb-30

Feb-27

Feb-24

Feb-21

Feb-18

Feb-15

Feb-12

Feb-09

Feb-06

Feb-03

Feb-00

1929 7-17

10.2
450

25

400
350

20

19.1
16.9

300

16.9

15.6

15

250
200

10.01

150

10
8.4
6.9

100

50
0

0
1929

1932

1937

1938

1942

1946

1948

1949

20


10.3 1929-1952
90

35

82.75

80

30

70
60

25
58

56

50
40

41

30

15

26

23

20

20

47

44

10
5

10

5.5

0
1929

1932

1936

1938

1939

1942

1946

1948

1952

1929 23
1932 1935 1929
1940
1947
10.4 1929-1952

60

50
55 45

54.5
50

40

47

35

41

40

30
30
20

25
23

20

23

22

15
13

10

10
5

2.5

0
1929

1932

0
1936

1937

1940

1943

1946

1947

1952

1937

10.5 1937-1952

80

25
73

70

20

60
50
43

40

43

15
10

30
25
20

19

10
0

0
1937

1940

1946

1948

1952

10.6

300
250

60
257

50

200

40

150

30

100

20
55

50

10

36
9

0
1929

1932

1937

1942

20

7
1946

1949

1952

10.7

30

12
28

25

10

20

15

14

10

4
9

5
0

1
1940

0
1946

1948

1952

50 50

1900-1930

1934

1926 1929
1956
17% 1948 GEICO
1972 24 80 20%

1947 38
20
50 20 80

20 60

28 22 20 70
20 90

25

5060

70 80

90

5
68

1929 1929
1987

94

6D

40 1930 D
19 20 40

40
19 40

7
101 1884 31 30 20
1927

1933
70

100

1977-1994

30

CANSLIM

10

1969 1977
19771990 13
2000 140 100

13
29%1990

13

11
17

12
1970
1980

1989 1990

12

13

14

1819

15
30 1910

16

1980 5 10 80
90
1992
1993
800 200

200

17
31 22
55 3%

90

90
90

40

1982-1999

400

1900 2007 11 30%


2008
3 42 20
A 90 2008

2001-2005

1906.1-1907.11

1900 1893 1906

1906 1
90
1907 07 3
90 07 9 10
22 24

11
12 1908 60 80

10.71907 11 1
1906 1

120

07 3

100
80
60
1907 11

40
20

1907116

190796

190776

190756

190736

190716

1906116

190696

190676

190656

190636

190616

1905116

190596

190576

190556

190536

190516

1912.10-1914.12
1912 1913

1914
7 9
55 71
1915
1915
100
10.8

120

1912 10

100

14 7

80
60
14 12

40

20

1915105

191575

191545

191515

1914105

191475

191445

191415

1913105

191375

191345

191315

1912105

191275

191245

191215

1916.111917.12

17 4 16
1916 11

10.9

1916 11

140
120
100
80
60

1917 12

40
20

1919101

191971

191941

191911

1918101

191871

191841

191811

1917101

191771

191741

191711

1916101

191671

191641

191611

1915101

191571

191541

191511

1919.11-1921.8
1918
1919 11 1920 GDP 1919
1920 6%
1921 1921
20
10.10 20

140
120
100
80

1919 11

60
40
20
0

1921104

192174

192144

192114

1920104

192074

192044

192014

1919104

191974

191944

191914

1918104

191874

191844

191814

1921 8

10.11 1921 1922


120

100
80
60
40
20
0

1920

1921

1922

1923

1924

1929.07-1929.11
20 400 1929
1930 1929 3 30
8 380 9 10%10
10%10 24 11
23 380
228 40%
228 30 4 294
29%
10.121929

140

120
100
80
60
40

1929

20

1939
1938
1937
1936
1935
1934
1933
1932
1931
1930
1929
1928
1927
1926
1925
1924
1923
1922
1921
1920
10.13
400

350
300
250

1932
41

200
150
100
50

34-7-6

34-1-6

33-7-6

33-1-6

32-7-6

32-1-6

31-7-6

31-1-6

30-7-6

30-1-6

29-7-6

29-1-6

28-7-6

28-1-6

1930.4-1932.7
1930 4 1930 1929
3
30 4 32 7 1933
1935
1937.3-1938.4
1937
1936
1936
GNP 38 1939
1937 3 1938 4 103 157
52%
10.14 1938

250
200

1938 GNP

150
100
50
0

1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945

10.151937 -1938 48%


250

1937 3
191

200
150
100

1938 4
103

50

19396

19394

19392

193812

193810

19388

19386

19384

19382

193712

193710

19378

19376

19374

19372

193612

1938.11-1942.5
1939 9 1
9 1 15
135 154 1940

1940 45
24%1942 4
96
1943 7 145
10.16

1938 11

180
160

140
120
100

80
60
40

1942 4
94

20

194211

19428

19425

19422

194111

19418

19415

19412

194011

19408

19405

19402

193911

19398

19395

19392

193811

19388

19385

1973.1-1974.10
405060 70
1972 1973
1973 1 1973 4
10
74 10 584 1975

10.1770
1200

1973
1

1000
800

10

600

400

74 10 12
75

200

10.181974 CPI 11%

1975101

197571

197541

197511

1974101

197471

197441

197411

1973101

197371

197341

197311

1972101

197271

197241

197211

1971101

197171

197141

197111

14
12

CPI

10
8
6

1973

4
2
0

19757

19779

19783

197510

19754

19751

197410

19747

19744

19741

197310

19737

19734

19731

197210

19727

19724

19721

197110

19717

19714

19711

10.19 1974

20

GDP

15
10
5
19789

19773

19769

19763

19759

19753

19749

19743

19739

19733

19729

19723

19719

-5

19713

-10

1987.8-1987.12
19851986
87 8
2709 12 1766 35% 10
10 20
0.75
10.20

1987
8

3000
2500

10

2000
1500

12
1766

1000
500

8712

8711

8710

879

878

877

876

875

874

873

872

871

10.2119871988
8

GDP

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

19901

19899

19895

19891

19889

19885

19881

19879

19875

19871

19869

19865

19861

19859

19855

19851

19849

2000.1-2001.9
90 2000 11722
2001 11301 2001
911
2002
10 7528
10.22

13000

12000
11000
10000
9000

911

8000

02 10 7528

7000

200292

200252

200212

200192

200152

200112

200092

200052

200012

199992

199952

199912

199892

199852

199812

6000

10.23 GDP 02
8

GDP

7
6
5
4
3
2
1

200312

20039

20036

20033

200212

20029

20026

20023

200112

20019

20016

20013

200012

20009

20006

20003

199912

19999

19996

19993

19989

199812

-2

19986

-1

19983

1900 2007 11 30%


3 42 20
10.2:

1906.1-1907.11
1912.10-1914.12

22
26

50.5%
43.5%

1907.1-1907.11
1914.7-1914.12

10
5

45.30%
33.80%

1916.11-1917.12

13

38.4%

1916.11-1917.12

13

38.40%

1919.11-1921.8
1929.07-1929.11
1930.4-1932.7

21
3
26

45.1%
30.4%
84.7%

1919.11-1920.12
1929.07-1929.11
1930.4-1932.7

12
3
26

41.20%
30.40%
84.70%

1937.3-1938.4

13

46.1%

1937.8-1938.4

45.60%

1938.11-1942.5

42

40.0%

1940.4-1942.5

25

37.40%

1973.1-1974.10
1987.8-1987.12

21
3

43.1%
35.9%

1973.10-1974.10
1987.8-1987.12

11
3

41.90%
35.90%

2000.1-2002.10

33

35.8%

2001.5-2001.10

20
44.9%

21
43.1%

27.20%

11
10

42.0%
38.4%

2007 2007

20062007
8000 06 130%07
80%08 70% 8000

11.12008 8000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000

200810

20087

20084

20081

200710

20077

20074

20071

200610

20067

20064

20061

200510

20057

20054

20051

200410

20047

20044

20041

NASDAQ
A NASDAQ
A

90
11.2 NASDAQ

7000

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
20
05
-0
20 2
0
20 5-6
05
-1
20 0
06
20 2
06
20 -6
06
-1
20 0
07
20 2
07
20 -6
07
-1
20 0
08
20 2
08
20 -6
08
-1
20 0
09
20 2
09
20 -6
09
-1
20 0
10
20 2
10
-6

97 6
2008 8000
A 70

11.3
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
06.12 07.1

07.2

07.3

07.4

07.5

<120

07.6

07.7

07.8

07.9 07.10 07.11 07.12

>120

/ M2
8 15%

11.4/M2

18%

7000

16%

6000

14%

5000

12%
10%

4000

8%

3000

6%

2000

4%

1000

0%

No
vMa 01
rJu 02
lNo 02
vMa 02
rJu 03
lNo 03
vMa 03
rJu 04
lNo 04
vMa 04
rJu 05
lNo 05
vMa 05
rJu 06
lNo 06
vMa 06
rJu 07
lNo 07
v07

2%

90

2008 07

11.5
80

100%

70

80%

60

60%

50

40%

40
20%

30

0%

20

-20%

10
0

-40%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

PE

2005

2006

2007.9

50%
10% 50%
50% 10000

11.6

35000

7000

30000

6000

25000

5000

20000

4000

8 A

15000

3000

10000

2000

5000

1000

2007-1 2007-2 2007-3 2007-5 2007-6 2007-8 2007-9 2007-11

08

11.7 08
40

vix

spread

35

0.5

30

25

-0.5

20

-1

15

-1.5

10

-2

2009-5

2007-1
2008-3

2005-11

2004-9

2002-5
2003-7

2001-3

2000-1

1998-11

1996-7
1997-9

1995-5

1994-3

1991-11
1993-1

1990-9

-3

1989-7

1988-5

-2.5

1986-1
1987-3

70

11.8 19701978

7000
6000
5000
4000
3000

2000

73 75

1000

1978-7

1978-1

1977-7

1977-1

1976-7

1976-1

1975-7

1975-1

1974-7

1974-1

1973-7

1973-1

1972-7

1972-1

1971-7

1971-1

1970-7

1970-1

1
23
4
2007

6%

11.1

2009 8

4 16642402 1 24022037
2 20373478 3 16643478 N
4 0.382 2772
0.5
2553 5

11.9

A
A 2500 B
B 3200
2009

11.10

2 1664-3478 1 2
0.618 2350
3 3 1


11.11

C 61241664
A 16643478 B C 6
1664
2009
11.12

2006

2008

A
A
11.13
90

85

80

75

200812

200811

200810

200809

200808

200807

200806

200805

200804

200803

200802

200801

200712

200711

200710

70

11.14
130
120
110
100
90
80

11.15

200811

200805

200711

200705

200611

200605

200511

200505

200411

200405

200311

200305

200211

200205

200111

200105

200011

200005

199911

199905

199811

70

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

200807

200707

200607

200507

200407

200307

200207

200107

200007

199907

199807

199707

199607

199507

199407

199307

199207

199107

199007

198907

198807

198707

198607

2009
A
A

11.16

4
1

11.17A

2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800

1814

1700

1664

1600

2009-2-9

2009-1-23

2009-1-15

2009-1-7

2008-12-26

2008-12-18

2008-12-10

2008-12-2

2008-11-24

2008-11-14

2008-11-6

2008-10-29

2008-10-21

2008-10-13

2008-9-26

2008-9-18

2008-9-9

2008-9-1

1500

0.382 K K

20 70

40 40

1996 2009 96
11.1840

2500

40

2000

1500

1000

Jul-05

Jan-05

Jul-04

Jan-04

Jul-03

Jan-03

Jul-02

Jan-02

Jul-01

Jan-01

Jul-00

Jan-00

Jul-99

Jan-99

Jul-98

Jan-98

Jul-97

Jan-97

Jul-96

Jan-96

500

06

18 6 34%

11.1906 40

40

7000
6000

4321

5000
4000

1145

3000
2000
1000

2281

11.240

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Oct-07

Jul-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

Oct-06

Jul-06

Apr-06

Jan-06

1996-5-3
1996-6-7

1996-5-24
1997-9-26

-11%
72%

0.89
1.52

0.89
1.54

1998-1-16
1998-2-13
1998-4-3
1998-11-20

1998-1-16
1998-3-13
1998-8-14
1998-11-20

-2%
-6%
-6%
-1%

1.49
1.40
1.31
1.30

1.68
1.64
1.62
1.77

1999-6-4
2000-1-14

1999-12-17
2000-1-14

10%
-8%

1.44
1.32

1.96
1.95

2000-1-28
2002-7-5

2001-2-9
2002-9-20

28%
-8%

1.69
1.56

2.71
2.22

2003-4-18

2003-4-25

-6%

1.46

2.06

2003-5-23
2003-7-11

2003-6-27
2003-7-25

-4%
-2%

1.40
1.38

2.07
2.04

2003-12-19
2004-1-2

2003-12-19
2004-6-11

-2%
0%

1.35
1.35

2.00
2.04

2005-9-16
2005-12-30

2005-9-23
2008-2-1

-3%
285%

1.31
5.04

1.59
5.98

2009-3-27

2009-7-6

28%

6.47

4.32

40 5/20
40

50%50%
20 50

20
20

20
20
20

45 1998

30 30
11.20

30

..

1983 1984

20% 80
23 23

10
4 23 3 20 l00%
20% 3000-3500 4
3150

23

40 1

10

2B

10 30


WIND

A 2001

12.12010

30%
25%

25%
20%
15%

12%

10%

7%

5%

3%

1%

4% 4%

6%
4%
2%

2% 1%

5%

3%

4%

5% 5%

3%

3%

1% 1%

1%

0%

0%

12.22010
50%

46%

40%

30%
20%
10%

14%
6%
2% 2% 2%

0%

3%

1%

3%

4%
1% 0%

2% 2%

0% 0% 0% 2%

3%

0% 1%

3% 2%

0%

IT

0%

Black_Litterman

60%
12%-17%
12.3 60%


4%
1%

23%

22%

32%

40%

12%

29%

17%

20%

12.4
25%
20%

20%

20%

15%

12%

11%

10%

10%

5%

5%

5%

0%

300 1-2
3-4 5-6

12.5 1993

150%
100%
50%

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

-50%

1993

0%

-100%
-150%

06 938%
12.1

2005 3

12

2004 12

14

2005 3

13

2004 12

15

2004 2

24

2004 4

10

2004 3

23

2004 4

12

2004 4

11

2004 12

15

55% 23% 9%
7%
125% 15% 18%
10%
61% 42% 19%
15%
33% 23% 7%
4%
38% 20% 4.6%
1.1%
40% 19% 6%
2.3%
77% 5% 8%
1.6%
27% 21% 5%
3.8%
55% 33% 5.8%
5%
40% 23% 4.8%
3.5%

PE
PB

42%


12.6
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150

8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5

2009-3-31

2008-3-31
2008-9-26

2007-9-28

2006-9-29
2007-3-30

2006-3-31

2005-9-30

2004-9-30
2005-3-31

2004-3-31

2003-3-31
2003-9-30

2002-9-27

2001-06-30

1999-06-30
2000-06-30

1998-06-30

1996-06-30
1997-06-30

1995-06-30

08 11
4
12.7

2005 2

12.8

2009-01

2008-07

2008-01

07 1

08 11
4

2007-07

2005-01

2004-07

2004-01

2003-07

2003-01

2002-01

2001-07

2001-01

1999 6 10
54

2000-07

2000-01

60%

2002 2

2002-07

100%

2007-01

140%

2005-07

180%

2004 4

2006-07

2002 2

2008

07

2005 1

2006-01

220%

A
12.9


2002
2000 2001
2002
2002

2003

2004
2005

2006

2007

2008
2009

2000

2003 2007
12.10

13.10%

15.13%

10.43%
10.26%
10.02%
9.93%
9.73%
9.59%
9.08%
9.04%
8.91%
8.83%
8.80%
8.76%
8.75%
8.74%
8.65%
8.52%
8.50%
8.33%
8.24%
8.22%
7.21%
5.74%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

12.11

264.06%
234.98%
201.20%
201.00%
162.97%
160.92%
95.86%
93.48%
92.00%
83.06%
79.36%
50.24%
44.12%
31.43%
26.47%
22.58%
21.27%
20.58%
19.90%
18.70%
15.88%
14.49%
13.02%
12.75%
11.53%
10.29%
9.74%
9.11%
9.07%
8.38%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%


BL

1996 Sam stoavl 1970


1995 25 25 4
5

12.2: Sam stoavl

Fed

12.12Sam stoavl

2004 OECD
CPI 1970 2004

2
3

12.3:

CPI

12.4:

3.8%

4.7%

3.7%
3.3%

4.3%
4.2%

1.4%

2.9%

-0.4%
-2.4%

1.1%
-0.9%

-3.1%

-1.8%

-3.1%
-4.4%
-4.5%

-3.2%
-3.6%
-5.8%

13.3%

14.7%

11.0%

11.6%

8.9%

5.6%
0.5%

2.5%
2.1%

-4.5%
-4.6%

2.1%
1.6%

-4.7%

0.0%

-10.2%
-12.8%

-8.9%
-12.5%

6.4%

CPI
GICS
2007 Jeffrey Stangl Sector Rotation over
Bus iness-Cycles NBER 19482003 48

12.5NBER

1948.11

1949.1

1953.07

56

1953.07

1954.05

1957.08

49

1957.08
1960.04

1958.04
1961.02

1960.04
1969.12

32
116

1969.12
1973.11

1970.11
1975.03

1973.11
1980.01

47
74

1980.01
1981.07

1980.07
1982.11

1981.07
1990.07

18
108

1990.07
2001.03

1991.03
2001.11

2001.03
N.A.

128
N.A.

12.13NBER

12.6 NBER

16.50%

10.90%

15.10%

10.38%

12.57%

11.98%

11.74%

10.15%

-7.55%

48.80%

3.54%

-18.38%

48.40%

9.65%

1.50%

-21.55%

44.98%

9.59%

9.49%

0.45%

-22.48%

43.46%

0.43%

-25.48%

42.11%

10.45%

8.22%

0.16%

-25.55%

36.10%

10.18%

7.60%

0.15%

-31.35%

34.35%

8.75%

7.45%

-0.05%

-31.70%

33.77%

7.20%

7.08%

-0.55%

-31.80%

29.33%

5.65%

6.35%

-4.85%

-34.73%

22.75%

GDPCPI
90-91 01-02
90-91 89 9 90 11
1990 12 1991 12
1990
1991 12 1994 4 1990

1991


1992 1994

12.71990

1989.9-1990.11
1990.11-1991.12

1991.12-1994.4

45.24%
40.65%

12.36%
10.81%

52.81%
51.31%

8.44%

43.86%

-0.09%
-5.33%

41.93%
32.08%

31.21%
20.69%

500

-12.56%

500

29.44%

500

18.21%

-19.07%

28.01%

17.33%

-21.84%
-25.65%

15.80%
11.06%

7.58%
6.13%

-30.49%
-41.91%

7.51%
0.97%

0.90%
-18.61%

32.41%

99 11 01 5
GDP 01 6 02 7
02 7 2004
99 11 01 5
500
01 5 2002 7 911

2002
7 2004 3

12.82000

1999.11-2001.5
2001.5-2002.7

2002.7-2004.3

37.91%

41.93%

17.73%

-10.79%

21.70%

15.07%
9.64%

-19.42%
-20.02%

500

20.40%
19.34%

8.53%

-23.25%

17.80%

1.06%

-27.40%

-2.38%

-4.73%

500

-27.41%

-27.44%

14.62%

500

-6.48%

-43.59%

10.92%

-29.93%

-48.12%

3.62%

2.51%

17.70%
14.96%

-35.76%
-52.38%
2.37%
3

CPI

12.14

2002-01
2002-04
2002-07
2002-10
2003-01
2003-04
2003-07
2003-10
2004-01
2004-04
2004-07
2004-10
2005-01
2005-04
2005-07
2005-10
2006-01
2006-04
2006-07
2006-10
2007-01
2007-04
2007-07
2007-10
2008-01
2008-04
2008-07
2008-10
2009-01
2009-04

105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93

12.15 2002
105
104
103
102

CPI

8
7
6

101
100

99
98

97
96

95
94

-1
2002-02
2002-04
2002-06
2002-08
2002-10
2002-12
2003-02
2003-04
2003-06
2003-08
2003-10
2003-12
2004-02
2004-04
2004-06
2004-08
2004-10
2004-12
2005-02
2005-04
2005-06
2005-08
2005-10
2005-12
2006-02
2006-04
2006-06
2006-08
2006-10
2006-12
2007-02
2007-04
2007-06
2007-08
2007-10
2007-12
2008-02
2008-04
2008-06
2008-08
2008-10
2008-12
2009-02
2009-04

93
92

-2

2002 2008

2004
2004 9 2005 2
300 A

12.9

18

12

1.3852

1.0183

1.2426

43

30

13

4.5680

1.0360

1.5280

10

0.6372

0.9559

0.5823

16

0.5325

0.9614

0.6233

300

2002 2004
2006 2007

12.10

2.012

1.910

1.427

6.241

5.289

5.007

0.787

0.848

0.781

0.713

0.709

0.673

300

1.385

4.853

0.675

0.603

1.355

300

4.568

0.661

0.582

1.300

4.504

0.652

0.581

1.277

4.430

0.648

300

0.532

1.214

4.303

300

0.637

0.526

1.104

3.818

0.613

0.514

3.605

0.635

1.073

1.024

2.562

0.603

0.442

12.16A

20 70

1987-1993
18
9 S&P500 5
50 ( PE )
50

0.470


1968-1997
29.10% 1% 24.51%
16%
12.11(1979-1994 )

31.93%

13.20%
18.73%

29.67%

(Wiltshire)500

13.98%

15.69%

1996
1971 12 31 1991 12 31
20.14%

80%

//

1
P/B 1975 1 -1995 6
55% 61%

12.121975 1 -1995 6 1
1

23
42
37

14
24
10

55%
56%
61%

12

61%

14

55%

Richard Roll (E/P)(B/P)

E/P B/P
1984 4 -1994 3 500


12.131984 4 -1994 3 1
1

E/P
B/P

6.85

+
+

5.34
5.15

500
+

3.96
3.49

+
+

3.05
2.76

2.02

1.64

1
Roll CAPM

2Scott Bauman
Robert Miller P/E P/E
P/E
Bauman Miller

Robert 1975 1 -1995 6


39%-45%
1985-1995 6
5

12.14
1985-1995 %

1985

29.7

28.3

1.4

28.7

1986
1987

13.5
1.4

15.4
-0.4

-1.9
1.8

14.7
1.2

1988
1989

13.9
30.1

18.5
20.8

-4.6
9.3

15.8
25.3

1990
1991

-4.2
49.7

-8.6
30.9

4.4
18.8

-5.7
37.0

1992

7.5

12.1

-4.6

9.3

1993
1994

13.0
-1.7

14.1
-1.3

-1.1
-0.4

12.8
-1.5

1995

32.4

28.9

3.5

30.9

1975-1995
5 5 4

5 3

12.151975-1995 5 %

1975

40.2

24.0*

1979
1991

35.2
33.7

1980
1982

33.6
31.0

1975

39.5

37.5*

33.6
4.9*

1976
1985

37.5*
29.1*

3.0
19.1*

2.5*
23.7*

1983
1979

26.2*
25.5

7.5*
25.4

2Bernstein(1991)

24.9 29.9 500


27.8 3

4
Harrey(19891993)

12.16/

50%
50%
FTSE 350 50%

1960-1995 1974 -1995


12.17

NA

NA
NA

NA

NA

(1)
50%
50%(2)
50%
(3)

12.18

68%

68%

70%
79%

79%
81%

50%
62%
71%

65%
68%
82%

39%
44%

49%
29%

42%

34%

30%

34%

27%
79%

18%
49%

Pradhuman Bernstein(1994)

12.17

/RHS)

6000

2.5

5000

4000

1.5

3000
1

2000

0.5

1000
0

12.18

/RHS)

7000

1.4

6000

1.2

5000

4000

0.8

3000

0.6

2000

0.4

1000

0.2

12.19

/RHS)

8000

7000

3.5

6000

5000

2.5

4000

3000

1.5

2000

1000

0.5

12.20

/RHS)

5000

1.2

4500
4000

3500

1
0.8

3000
2500

0.6

2000
1500
1000

0.4

0.2

500

2009 9

6124
03
PE 4

10 30

12.21

2.1
1.9

1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
1999- 2000- 2001- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2003- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2008- 200912-30 08-21 04-10 11-20 07-12 02-27 10-13 05-28 12-31 08-17 04-04 11-14 06-29 02-05 09-16 05-04

12.22
5

PE/PE

4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1999-12- 2001-01- 2002-01- 2003-01- 2004-01- 2005-01- 2006-01- 2007-02- 2008-02- 2009-0130
12
18
24
30
21
25
02
01
23

12.23

2.1
2

1.9

115

19

1.8

10

1.7
1.6
1.5
1027

1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
2006-01-04

2006-08-18

2007-04-04

2007-11-14

2008-06-26

2009-02-10

2009-09-14

12.24

6000

2.1
1.9

5000

4000

1.7
1.5
1.3

3000
1.1
2000

1000
1999- 2000- 2001- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2003- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2008- 200912-30 08-21 04-10 11-20 07-12 02-27 10-13 05-28 12-31 08-17 04-04 11-14 06-29 02-05 09-16 05-04

12.25

0.9
0.7

2.1

100

1.9

80

1.7

60

1.5

40

1.3

20

1.1

0.9

(20)

0.7
199912-30

(40)
200011-06

200109-04

200207-12

200305-19

200403-12

200412-31

200511-02

200608-29

200706-29

200804-23

200902-19

1
23

2001-2005

33

08
20


2007
OEM ODM TMS

2007

2007 10

2008

13.1
80%
60%

40%
20%
0%
-20%

-40%
-60%

2006 5

30%
2006 30% 2011
11 40%


30%

05 05
2750 /
3500 /
06

4000-5000 / 06 3040%
07
2006
2006

13.2
300%

250%
200%

150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%

-100%

2006

08

2007 000818

5 TDI
TDI
TDI MDI MDI
TDI TDI

TDI

2007 1 2008
6 2009 2 2010 5
2008 32 2008 19
2008 0.69 09 3.23
13.1
2009
2009

2008

2008

2007

-3.2389

-0.678

-0.6952

0.0416

0.0599

-0.3938

2.167

2.845

3.5845

3.543

-1.1285

-0.279

0.0687

0.4905

0.538


TDI 2008

2008 TDI 1 2008


0.6
2008 28
2 2009 36 6.8 2010 54 18
06
8.2 17%
08 7.14%09 18.8%2010 33.33%
TDI TDI 08 6 09 7
2010 8

2010 4 21
2009 2
09 500%
100%
08 11% 18%

90%08 8000
09-10 1 25%
10000-8000/8000 99
05 38%
09
1.25*1.38=1.72570%100% 08 204
09 380 05 6.97%
05 06 6.97%
4.33%
13.2002192

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009E

2010E

126.14

137.90

204.98

204.98

204.98

380.18

482.38

9.41

8.87

12.17

12.73

26.50

33.62

6.92

35.98%

-5.74%

37.20%

4.60%

108.17%

26.87%

5.49%

6.97%

4.33%

5.94%

6.21%

6.97%

6.97%

09 20%
06-07 18%
09

09-10
13.3 /

1800
1200
600
0
200601

200610

200707

200804

13.3002192

200901

/%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009E

2010E

9.41

8.87

12.17

12.73

26.50

33.62

6.92

35.98%

-5.74%

37.20%

4.60%

108.17% 26.87%

2630

3229

4248

3988

4838

4350

4611

22.78%

31.56% -6.12%

21.31%

-10.08%

5.99%

14.41%

17.26%

18.55% 18.29%

11.18%

20.83%

21.38%

2009
10
2009

0959 2
2004 11 4 12 4.1 100

4
2004
2004 9 2004 12 23

2004 200
16 2005
30

200 228
4.56 54.7
21.9 500
1000
2004 9 20 2 40
12.8 13.8%
49.8%
10 4
2 2030 1015

NASDAQ
2
2004 4.1
2006 6
08 112 20

200
2006
17.88 10 2006 4.2
49% 2
07 6747 6237
07
36 10
5

2004

2007

3000
70%

20

80%
25%
30%

1897

19 90 100%

07

100 1 100 1

100
100
10 100

13.4

13.5

50

2000 300

IBMGE

1520

95 2000
4

2000
41%ROE 20% 1972 3000
25

2002

WINDOWS
0 6
1

10 1000 100
0

1
10

TFTLCD

19912001 10 40%

2007 6

13.6

2G
3G

2G

3G

3G

3G

3G

07

1996
1998 8 2000 2002 1.2
2003 SARS 8 20042005 2006
1996 2006 11 24.74
11

19501970
70%

1980 2000 20
9 20 2
92
6%1999 9%20

13.7

1996 3 2006
15 30% 1998
1998

2
20
2007 10
5

13.8

15%

15%

6%7%

80%

80%
20%

DVD

2 1000

10
10

60

80

3 2

10%

2 3 5

CD

CD
CD

60 70

1997
,

90

20


AT&T

2007

2
3

EBay

CPU
CPU

PS
2%

10 6 98%
PS3

98%
PS3 300
50

20

1 100

5% 6
15

2004
2005

2007 5

0.11 2030 2.2 3.3

2006 42

1%
35%3%5%

35% 1.26 2.1


3.65 0.390.58 2030
7.817.4

06-07

07

05 06 07

170 5

30
4

1000

JC

GAP


STAPLE

EBAY

10 5200
40
10 1400 85 PS

70

90
OFFICE
21
90

LOWES

XX
XX

2007 A 2007
85%

2006 2005 2006


6279 1.48% 2813
3% 15.59% 2007
06 3214 07
3675

1+1

2007 3
2009
80-65 09

09

45% 25%

2007
18699 09 656

09

2011

50% 11.4
10 5%

1 10
10

100 200

1000 10

2015 30% 10%


() 4 28 255 856
369 1,638 ()
() 5,000 3,000 2,500
1,000 800 3-5 120
15%-30%

10%(
)
120*10%=12
50%
6
6 07-09
1.2 4.8 2015
10%

2000

iPod
iTunes
iPod

5 7

96 911

04

20

Circle K Joker

400
800 Top20
Newsflash

EBAY

13.9
80

70
60

80%

60%

40%

50
40

30

20%

0%

20
-20%

10
0
Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09

13.10

-40%

250

100%

200

80%
60%
40%

150
20%
0%
100
-20%

-40%

50

-60%
0
Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08

-80%

13.11
60

100%
80%

50

60%

40

40%

30
20%
20
10

0%
-20%

0
-40%
Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09

2001-2005 01-03 03-05


0305

03-05 20% 0305 56


50% 05 2 3 3
3 PE03 / 4 56

1
56 72% 3 30% 46%
50%
13.123 72% 30%

30

46%

25
20
15
10

26

13%

11%

11%

13%

7%

5
4

50
%

50
%

[4
0%

40
%

[3
0%

30
%
[2
0%

[1
0%

20
%

10
%

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2
56 89% 3 10%68% 15%
A 5.9%

13.133 ROE 89% 10%


16

30%

25%

23%

14

21%

20%

25%

12
20%

10
8

11%

12

6
4

15%

14

13
11

10%
5%

0%

25
%

[2
0%

25
%

[1
5%

20
%

15
%
[1
0%

10
%

0%

[5
%

5%

3 3 / EPS
64% 3 PE 27 03-05 A
27 70% 15-30 24%
30
13.143 PE 70% 15-30

36%

25

40%

20

35%
30%

21%

20%

25%

15

20%
10

13%

20

15%

7%

12

10%

11

4%

7
0%

5%

2
0
10 [1015 [1520 [2027 [2730 [3050 50

0%

4 03
61% 20-100 48%62%
5-20 68%
13.15 03 61% 20-100
25

44%

50%
45%

20

40%
35%

15

30%
23

10

17%

13%

25%
13%

12%

5
7
0%

15%
9

20%

10%
7

5%
0%

10 [1015 [1520 [2050 [50100 100

PEG 1 30%PEG
1.5 30% 50
60
30%

20% 16

20

60 60%
10% 60
10
2000
P/E

19862000 2030% 9%

2006
10 3
25 2007 100


5 5

30 25%

ROE

15%

7 7

20% 1016%

20%
30%
02-07

1000
2000 500

10

50%

XX

10 08

20
A 6
13.4

600055


X
27.7

6 3000

002223

59.1

5 1

600079

71.4

1.5

600587

23.1

10 5000

300003

193.1

6 3

300030

22.2

1.3 2500

2011
40

09
A

30%

14.89%

193 2011

12 8

ST

13.5

600673

18

1.6 2000

300015

60

5 8000

600706

ST

75

8000

000999

226

2000

000990
600105

43
33

1.6
1.1

000788

44

ST

15
09 10 2011 2011
1.5 11 40

09

18.25%2008
8800 11%
1500
1990 19% 2008 46%

2000 200 2012

2
1 50 300
800

25% 15%

180
95 100
30%
30-50%
13.6

10

11

12

002293

73

2.5

3.2

002327

43

1.1

1.45

1.69

002397

32

0.93

1.18

1.47

10

60%40%

1015 812
35

10

10 3

06

06 5.92 45.96%
0.72 4862 29% 0.31
0.19 3.25 40.69%
2787 19.05%

941 1.59% 19.35%


2.3% 3.34%
2.47% 3.53%

13.7
06
05
05
%

7.99
9.14
7.16

04

03

02

7.48

8.26

6.11

1.12

2.5

2.38

2.36

2.46

1.14

3.53

3.6

2.47

2.39

3.12

2.19

3.34

3.04

2.3

2.72

2.68

2.78

40.69%

941
29%
53.36% 40.69%

13.8

06

05

05

04

03

02

1.03

1.52

0.78

1.74

1.58

1.86

4.02
0.77

7.65
1.2

3.81
0.58

9.82
1.28

8.8
1.22

6.1
1.51

2.99
1.15

4.82
1.76

2.44
0.89

5.98
1.79

7.2
1.89

10.07
3.34

0.59

0.91

0.44

1.01

1.28

06

13.9

06

05

04

03

02

29

29

12

43

21

26

83

75

10

400 300 9

25-30

1000
1000

2001
2001 5

GDP

2006
9

6
3

30%

100

1990
2000
1990

100
100 1000

40 40 15

90 99
2535 50% 100%
100% 10
2000 6070

11

83.5
1982 4 1988 38
500

16.3 , 38
21.7 7
3.1 21.7 7
5.4 38
3.1

4 4

1
3 4 30
120
1 30
30 3 33

10% 30%

ROEP/BP/E
ROE

P/B

P/E

38%

1%

13.27

50.1

88%

3%

3.46

10.5

2%

83%

2.22

44.8

-10%

0%

1.35

434

P/E 24P/B 3.81 ROE 15% A P/B


P/E ROE
A B P/B
P/E ROE
88% ROE ROE 7%
C P/B P/E ROE
ROE C ROE 1820%
P/E

D ROE
ROE P/B
1

12

TYCO
TYCO
911

TYCO

80%

03-06 68
2
01-06 52%

05-08

13.16 A %

95%

WIND

EXCEL

3-5

48

IPO 40

Damodaran

:
1997 6 Andy Stephens
Artisan Mid-Cap Fund

12

20000

1.
2.
3.
4.

19.95 21.95
ISP

20000

25%

60%

20
90
Glass-Steagal
Act(Telecom Act

Las Vegas

15%
20%

20%40%

1%

80/20 80% 20%

60%70% 10
20 2%5%
10 30%

2001 (GDP
25%
1%

2 3

4550
60%70%
4%5%
4550

1520

1 50 1
75 80
5 1

50 1

60 1

70%

10%
1 1997 1998
2 90 3273
2001 4
87

1997
2006 2001 911 1995
1999
1998 2003 4 SARS
2009 4 H1N1 2005 9 1995 2
2008 5 2004 12

2001

1994 150 25% 1346


6 56 BBC CNN

1
2
345

6
7
8

1990-91

14.1

45

40

35

30
25
20
15
10
5

Nov-91

Sep-91

Jul-91

May-91

Mar-91

Jan-91

Nov-90

Sep-90

Jul-90

May-90

Mar-90

Jan-90

Nov-89

Sep-89

Jul-89

May-89

Mar-89

Jan-89

14.2
440

500

420
400

380
360

340
320
300

14.3

02-Nov-91

02-Sep-91

02-Jul-91

02-May-91

02-Mar-91

02-Jan-91

02-Nov-90

02-Sep-90

02-Jul-90

02-May-90

02-Mar-90

02-Jan-90

280

100

98

90 8 2

96

91 4 11

94
92
90
88

91 1 16

86
84
82

16-Dec-91

16-Oct-91

16-Aug-91

16-Jun-91

16-Apr-91

16-Feb-91

16-Dec-90

16-Oct-90

16-Aug-90

16-Jun-90

16-Apr-90

80

14.4 10
10

10
91 4 11

9
9
8

90 8 2

8
7

91 1 16

7
16-Dec-91

16-Oct-91

16-Aug-91

16-Jun-91

16-Apr-91

16-Feb-91

16-Dec-90

16-Oct-90

16-Aug-90

16-Jun-90

16-Apr-90

1112

60
3%

14.5 3%

85

500

80
75
70
1963 11 22

65

22-May-64

22-Apr-64

22-Mar-64

22-Feb-64

22-Jan-64

22-Dec-63

22-Nov-63

22-Oct-63

22-Sep-63

22-Aug-63

22-Jul-63

22-Jun-63

22-May-63

60

2001 911 2001 9 11


2
3000
911 9 11 16
2000
3.57

8
100-150 400
911

911 9 11 -14
9 17 911
6 17 9 10
6.83%5 9 21 1423.19
9 10 1695.38 16.05%9 21 1387.06
10 7
2
14.6911

2400
2200
2000
910
1800

1600
1400

917

1200
1000

911
911
6.2% 11.4% 12.3%
911
30% 17 3%

2006 9 19

1991 8 19

2008
2
98 03 SARS08

600
100
2005 910

2000
CAC

8
14.7

1
2

UPS

1346

50% 100%

25%-40% 4000
14.8

1918 H1N1
4-5
4000 -5000 1 18

1918 H5N1

1918

14.91918 4000-5000
6000

5000

5000
4000

4000
3000
2000
1000
200

100

1957

1968

0
1918

1346

1996 3 25
BSE

14.10 3 25
160

1996

140

120

14.11

Dec-96

Nov-96

Oct-96

Sep-96

Aug-96

Jul-96

Jun-96

May-96

Apr-96

Mar-96

Feb-96

Jan-96

100

30

25

20

Dec-96

Nov-96

Oct-96

Sep-96

Aug-96

Jul-96

Jun-96

May-96

Apr-96

Mar-96

Feb-96

Jan-96

15

03 SARS 2002 11 16
03 6 24
1918

14.122003 03
1800

()

1600
1400

1200

14.132003

Dec-03

Nov-03

Oct-03

Sep-03

Aug-03

Jul-03

Jun-03

May-03

Apr-03

Mar-03

Feb-03

Jan-03

1000

12

()

Dec-03

Nov-03

Oct-03

Sep-03

Aug-03

Jul-03

Jun-03

May-03

Apr-03

Mar-03

Feb-03

Jan-03

14.142003
20

()

18
16
14
12
10
8
Dec-03

Nov-03

Oct-03

Sep-03

Aug-03

Jul-03

Jun-03

May-03

Apr-03

Mar-03

Feb-03

Jan-03

1901
1997 H5N1
6 H5N1
H5N1
13-15
2003 H5N1

Tamiflu Relenza

14.15
05

Roche Holding AG)

300
250
200
150
100
50

Dec-08

Aug-08

Apr-08

Dec-07

Aug-07

Apr-07

Dec-06

Aug-06

Apr-06

Dec-05

Aug-05

Apr-05

Dec-04

Aug-04

Apr-04

Dec-03

Aug-03

Apr-03

09 4 26
20
H1N1

1982-1992 60 52 8 86.67%
41.75 399.71km 0.72 1986-1992
70 58 12 82.85%
48.35 692.10km 0.61
1989 4 26 7
7.3 0.3

30-40 10 2000
2007 2007 2008
2008 1 2008 2009

1842 6 7 1843 1932 12


7.5 1933 1957 12
8.3 1958 1974 7

7.2 1975
1822-2008 32 32
21 5 6 2

2003 2019 2009 2016

1897-1998
711
1951
18 19691987 1962
18 19801998

1998 22

14.120


1913

1922

1915 1926

M 7
1913 7.01925 7.0

1932
1950

1969

1987

1941
1959

1978

1996

1933

1932 7.51941

7.01941 7.0

1951

1950 7.01957

1958

8.3

1975 1970 7.71974

7.11974
1998

7.21976 7.31976 7.4


1988 7.61988 7.2

1995 7.31996 7.0


2006

2007 6.42008 5.05.0


5.9

2015

2008 2010 2012


200
70%
700

1997 10 30

1200
1000 1200
1001
14.16

140
120

100
80
60
40

20
0
0

200

400

600

800

1000

SP500 97

14.17

20
14.18
14.18
5.0

4.5

4.0
3.5

3.0
2.5

2.0
1.5
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200 14.19
14.19

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0
0.5
0.0
0

50

100

150

200

Santa Fe

ESSevolutionarily stable strategy

Santa Fe

ESS

ESS
ESS


300 1688
17
1841
1636 1719-1720

501994

80
1999

116341637
16 1593

712
45 10
9 1630

1634

Semper Augustus 1637 1

20 Switsers 30 29

1637 2
Semper Augustus 2 1%
Switsers 4 5% 90%
1637 4

100

217171720
18
1715
John Law
John Law
John Law

1719 1 John Law


1
1 20 500

500 7 5000 8
10000 10 21000 31000 62
1719 John Law 1719 9
12 9 28 10 2 5000 10
90%John Law

1719 4%1720 1 23%


John Law
9000
1720 5 9 2000 12
1000 1721 9 500

15.11719 4 1720 10

Banque royale notes


made legal tender

10

End stock price support


by note creation

9
8

Additional stock sales


for debt refunding

7
6
5

First stock sales for


debt refunding

Law's price deflation


plan proposed

Law appointed
controller general
Price pegged by
Banque royale

4
3
2

Farm indirect
of taxes

Acquisition of the
Mint.

1
0

31720
17
18

1711

1720 5000 John Law


1720 3
200 400
4 14 4 29

10
1720 1 1 128 130
300 1720 4

52% 64%1720 6 15 10%


800 1720 7 1
950 1050 130 7.08
15.21719 4 1720 10

Transfer Books Closed

1,100
1,000

900
800
700

600
500
400
300
200
100

May 19
Conversion Terms
Announced for
Annuitants

Apr 14
1st Money
Subscription
Mar 21
1st Passage of Act
Authorizing
Refunding
Apr 29
2nd Money Subscription

Aug 18
Bubble Act Enforced

Aug 24
4th Money Subscription

1720 6
8
8 24
9 175
12 124
9 1 227 10 14
135 345 145 130
40

41980-1982
80 1976 1977

1980
90

1980
10%20% 50%

1981 100% 50 1000

2600
40
800%


550
140
34
1982
1982 1980 1/4
1982 8 20

98% 1/69
900

5
19231926
20

1923
1913 24 1922 80
1923 1924 150 1896
25 1925 12 5 19241925
1925
7 5 2000 2 5

504
1926

10% 10% 100%

1926 9 18 400
6300 5000
1927 1928 1929 31 57
1930 30

5 1992

1988 1992
1993 19941995

1991 1992 372 13


1992 1000 40 1993 4
1500 7000
800
300 150 19921993
GDP 40.1% 20.9% 1991
1992 12 20% 1991 12001700
1992 1 4 40%
5 6
8888 7200 10000 1992
100% 250%
1994 19951996 GDP 4.3% 4.8%
1998
3669 1611 550
500 300 90%
416 588.3
177 2006 8 416
6 1997

1984

50
1985

20 90 1993
7%8%
-10%
19961997

19841985 500600 /1997 8000


100 100
1.3
1997 GDP 32%
1997 10 2003
1997 1992 1997 7
100 2003 8 31.77
2.4
928 923 48
4

2007

20

2007
2006

Charles Ponzi Ponzi


1919
1 6 1
Ponzi 90 50%
Ponzi
Ponzi

Ponzi
Ponzi 100
Ponzi 1920 8 Ponzi

1Ponzi
2
3
4 Ponzi

Ponzi

Ponzi

P0

D1
r g D1 r g

1D g
2D g
3D g
4D g

24
13

1
2
3
12

15.1

2 Q
Q=1
34

1929 2000

1 80
20 80

1983
1987 1-10 6.29

1988

250-350 230

1994
1994 12
19 15%
12 20 13% 3.47 1 3.925
1 21 15.3% 5 1
1995 3 9
8.001 56.63%
70%1992
71.6%1993 76.8%
1994 3 3 ZPC 1519.52
1994 2881.17 47.94%
500
2
1973-1974 20 60 70
1969-1971
1970
211.9 1971 11 285 1972 843.40

1973 3 9 1774.96 1970 7.4


1973 3 12 1974 10 12

1973 3 1301 4 734.8 12 300 1974 10 12


150.11 1774.96 91.54%
4
1982 1976 1978
4 1981 7
1810.2 1977 3.5 1982
GNP 1.1%
1982 12 12 676.30
1981 62.64% 3
1987 1984
1985

11 1763 1986 10 28 2355.93


1987 10 1 3949.73 1983 3.51 1986
10 1 89%

1987 10 16
108 420.8 11.12%10
19 508 22.6% 2
10 20 4 10
26
15 650 1120.7 2241.69
33.33%10 29
2204.52 10 1 3949.73 44.19%
300
31990
1990 80% 20 80
1986 1000 1986 10

1987 10 1 4796 1987


2300
1988
1988 9 8831
1 989 1 5716
1989 6 19
7 8000
1990 2 10 12682

1990 10 1 10200 80%


6

80

17191720

1929

1990 1989 200


300

1990
1994 1000
10 4 338 10 27 156
53.85%
1994 MMM
MMM 100
500 400% MMM
1500 1 54 MMM
7 27 50%

1973 8 20
19731974
1992
4500
2500 44.45% 50%
1997

28.6 5 6 0.06 99.79%


2

1719

1929

1987
90 1990 80 1990 9
92

1929 1992 1990

1929
1922
1987

10 19
1990 1991

1988 6.2% 1990 4.8%1991 4.3%

19971998

1996 230
237 1996 GDP 8.2%
5% 5%
1992
200 1995 659 1997 860 1997
1500 GDP 47% 48%
1997

62
80

20 80 90

1989 38957 1985 2


630 GNP 1.6

20 80
1987
5000 19821986
3037 1986 1174 1987 19
150
60 1987

1987
20 90 7.2

20%

1990 400

1993 1550
1996 3360
1989
1994 500 860
1500
1992
71.64%1993 76.8%
19901993 436%1997

1994
180 1997 400

1997
10 1994
1997
6
1720

1929

1929

1987

1994 1997

2007 A 2007

2007

2008

15
10

30%

30 20
70

8 300
5

20
20
3 20
2000
16.1 20

20

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

100
20 10%
80 2000 10% 80
200 20
1 10% 200 2800

A
B

1
10%
1
12% 1.1

700

WIND
21

2010 5 4000
2800 2010 30
1.25 8.5 150
492 2.6
376
295
5.65.0 4.6
07

100
2

CPI CPI

2 20

. 1986

2007

10

2009
10
1

ZYX
INTERNET
ZYX

INTERNET INTERNET

ZYX

ZYX

20 30

5%

20%

95%

20%

20-30%

ZYX
ZYX

ZYX INTERNET

ZYX INTERNET
$1.00
ZYX
$1.00$1.10$0.10

ZYX INTERNET $1.10


$1.00 5 5

18

ZYX ZYX INTERNET


$1.10$1.00 5
5

4
ZYX 1100
1100

ZYX ZYX
INTERNET $1.10$1.00
5 5

ZYX

ZYX INTERNET
$1.10$1.00 5 5

P/S ZYX


12 18
6

ZYX
ZYX INTERNET
$1.10$1.00 5
5

P/S
ZYX
12 18

100%

ZYX
ZYX INTERNET
$1.10$1.00 5 5

P/S ZYX

12 18

WIND
WIND

Y X
X
1
2

5
6

40
492

10

40

492

(Star Trek

X X

X
X X
X
X

X
C
16.1

X-//

C/

Camerer

16.2

88
40
5 10 20 40
5

40 15 %

30%

12

15%

1992

3
E
4K7

E 4 E 7
E 7
4

E 4
Karl
Popper

2007


1 100
10 65
10
25 65 45
20%

12%

1998 Hidden traps in decision making

7
31

1973

K K
152 105 K
K K

600

(1) A 200
(2) B 600

72% A

(1) C 400

(2) D 600
22% C
A C B D

10
150
1500

50%
10%
5.25
2.50

0.25
9.25

50%)

1987 1993 10000


124
102

15% 9%
1.7

3.4%

1980 2002
30000
17.6% 14.5%
1.2
12

1.2

1.7

15
1
2
3
4
5

6
7
8
9

10
11
12
13
14
15

1989

60%

2 2.5
6
6 1

2%

4 5

3
4

1
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
2.
1)

2)

3)
3
1)
2)
3)
4)
4
1)
2)
3)
4)
5
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6
1)

2)
3)
7
1)

2)
3)
4)
8
1)
2)
3)
9
1)
2)
3)
10
1)
2)
3)
4)

5)

1
2
3
4
5

2006 178 8

80%

2004

1436 865 12 1688


3200 15 1667
24

1000

1931

1936-
1938-

2008 8 12

2008 8 11
8

24002700

8 1 25

1233
4567

17.1

17.1
3

39

1000

27002400

30%

2400

08
3

08 09 23
18%

16%


13% 5%

2700

09 PE1820
09 PE13
300 08PE15

15
08PE 1820

08 1400

9000

14000

GDP09

500

1200 1450

GDP

6 10% 08 09 8.59.5%
3 10%
10.2%

6 26.8%

08 25.9%

09 20

78

08 22%

22%
09 1819%

78 22

4
08 22.2%

09 23%

23%

PMI
CPI
PPI

CRB

89 50

50 50

78

08 7%08

6.3%5.6%

CPI

89
10%

10%
400

09
3.5%

350

350

09 4%

110120

100110

70140

100

10

4.5%

4%

3.54%

RMBUSD

6.86.9

09 6.66.8

75 8085

1.35

M1

78 12%

09

09

78

1213%
15%08

15%
09 15.7%09

13%

14.7%

08

8 29003000 25002600 9

24002700
8
3000
9
2500 0 510
9

2008 8 19
A WIND
TOPVIEW

5.19 4.44 2.39

H CPI
H

30%

17.2
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500

400
300
200

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

A
17.3

A
[]

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000

0808

0807

0806

0805

0804

0803

0802

0801

0712

0711

0710

0709

0708

0707

0706

0705

0704

0703

0702

0701

NASDAQ
A
NASDAQ A
2005
17.4
160

(07.1-08.8)

140

(98.902.12)

120

5300
4800
4300
3800
3300

100

2800
80

2300
1800

60

1300
800
06-10-20
06-12-26
07-3-1
07-5-3
07-7-6
07-9-7
07-11-8
08-1-14
08-3-18
08-5-20
08-7-23
08-9-23
08-11-24
09-1-23
09-3-26
09-5-27
09-7-28
09-9-28
09-11-27
10-1-28
10-3-31
10-6-1
10-8-2
10-10-1
10-12-2
11-2-2

40

8 15 25 2005 2007 231


154 66.67%257 IPO63
AH
17.5AH

220

AH

200
180
160
140
120
100
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

2007 1995 5.7


16% 12 1.6 8%
1.2 6.2%

76%
1/4 2006
50
11.9 29
79 2005
21

2003
2006
2005 2008

2009
2009

17.6
75%

55%

35%

15%

-5% 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31
03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1 55%
1 2 51%
5.1 20%

300

24002700

9
1200

2008 8 27

1
60
GDP

17.7
30

10

20
10
0
-10
-20
-30

2007-12

2004-12

2001-12

1998-12

1995-12

1992-12

1989-12

1986-12

1983-12

1980-12

1977-12

1974-12

1971-12

1968-12

1965-12

1962-12

1959-12

1956-12

1953-12

100

80

8 16
20.58%
34110126 5.00% 8 15 174445386
25.58%12

17.8 10 /

A 64%

17.2

29 7 343

32 8 42.8

87.53%

90 1 37189

03 4 7832

13

78.9%

NASDAQ

00 1 3940

02 9 1172

32

70.25%

12 10%

500
60

17.3

6 0.5%

40%
08 PE 20

2008 9 2

17.4

17.5

CNBC
5

20

2245

2006 2001
2001 2245
1000 0607

17.9

24002700

2245

34
34
34

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-08-26/010216171081.shtml
08 8 6

http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/08-08-/12/rreu.html

60%

20032005

1998
2001

08
-3375
17.1008

10000

--

8000

6000

4000

2000

2008-04

2008-01

2007-10

2007-07

2007-04

2007-01

2006-10

2006-07

2006-04

2006-01

2005-10

2005-07

2005-04

2005-01

2004-10

2004-07

2004-04

2004-01

2003-10

2003-07

2003-04

-2000

2003-01

-4000

-6000

5% 08 3.81 5 1958
13.5%-14.5%

7
1 7 7
2.69% 38 36
7 41 7
2.76% 32 1 5
1 2.50% 31
7
7

2 7

17.11:7

114.5

119.5
()

()

114

119

113.5

118.5

113

118

112.5
Apr-08

117.5
May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

17.12 15.87%
120.00%
100.00%

80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%

20
05
1
20 Q
05
2
20 Q
05
3
20 Q
05
4
20 Q
06
1
20 Q
06
2
20 Q
06
3
20 Q
06
4
20 Q
07
1
20 Q
07
2
20 Q
07
3
20 Q
07
4
20 Q
08
1
20 Q
08
2Q

-20.00%
-40.00%
-60.00%

17.13 CPI

7 CPI
PMI
24002700

2008 9 16 jiong
A 1929 A
A 4000
4000 3000 3000

A
V 50%100%

17.14 50%

1200
1100

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300

2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

07
0 7 00 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8
20
20
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
20
20
20
7

17.1597 V

450

400
350
300
250
200
150
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9

97 97 97 98 98 98 99 99 99 00 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

910%
100% V
9 10
M1

17.168 M1 11.5% 9

1 7 4
222 22770
2003
2003

71
6472
2 537
1065 132 24.6%
199 102 19%
138 43.6%8

2012 18%
35% 2007 12537.02
4388
3

7000 1400
240

V
7 16 9 9 17.6%
7 16 9 9 40.6%

2008 10 8

21
17.6
2008
9 27

9 28

Pelosi

228 205

9 29

10 2

FDIC
Wachovia
Hypo , Bradford & Bingley

74 25
Washington Mutual
2008

10 3

Palin Biden

263 171

10 4

2008
Wells Fargo Wachovia

7000

7000
The best weapon is one you
never have to fire 7000

BDI
1/4


09
()(PMI)
LIBOR, TED Spread, LIBOR-OIS spread

17.17
1600000
1500000
1400000
1300000
1200000
1100000
1000000
900000
800000
Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

20003000

http://www.hjcn.com.cn/news/hy/9274451530.html

2000

1
10 -20

3
50%

919 10 7 A 10.95%
919 51.46%
25.05%19.42%

2008 10 15

12

2001

70 10
80 20
20012010
10

G7 G20

4000
800 5000

370

LIBOR LIBOR

9
9 10

2009 2
2007 2009
2008

2009 2

()

9 9
40%

B50
6

18
09
50%05-09
50% 08 0.33
/
2008 10 22

XXX
XXX

17.18 LIBOR

70

17.7

GDP

2 4
2 GDP 8%

17.19GDP

2008 10 29
11

BWII
10

6.8

VIX
LIBOR
BDI
17.20VIX

100
vix
80
60
40
20
0

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
3
5
7
9 11
1
3
5
7
9
11

07
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
08
06
07
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

19 20

1800

09 15%

26

2010 80100
3050

1/3
7%

15%

2008 11 5

LIBOR

35 500

238

PE

17.21 238

A
http://finance.jrj.com.cn/people/2008/10/2504182477449.shtml

15
20

40

10

1520

1 100

N 1

A 1213
20%
2257 240
-9.97% 06
100
-5.48%-11.72%
-21.65%

85%

17.22
A

150%

100%
50%
20083Q

20082Q

20081Q

20074Q

20073Q

20072Q

20071Q

20064Q

20063Q

20062Q

20061Q

20054Q

20053Q

20052Q

-50%

20051Q

0%

-100%
-150%
-200%
15.6% 05

17.23
(%)

25%

100%
80%

20%

60%
15%

40%

10%

20%
0%

5%

-20%
20083Q

20082Q

20081Q

20074Q

20073Q

20072Q

20071Q

20064Q

20063Q

20062Q

20061Q

20054Q

20053Q

20052Q

-40%
20051Q

0%

17.24

35%

30%

25%

20%

20083Q

20082Q

20081Q

20074Q

20073Q

20072Q

20071Q

20064Q

20063Q

20062Q

20061Q

20054Q

20053Q

20052Q

20051Q

15%

17.25ROE 9.75% 07

20

ROE

18

ROA

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2008-09-30

2008-06-30

2008-03-31

2007-12-31

2007-09-30

2007-06-30

2007-03-31

2006-12-31

2006-09-30

2006-06-30

2006-03-31

2005-12-31

2005-09-30

2005-06-30

2005-03-31

2004-12-31

2004-09-30

2004-06-30

2004-03-31

2003-12-31

2003-09-30

2003-06-30

2003-03-31

2002-12-31

2002-09-30

2002-06-30

2002-03-31

08
09

1.5%
100

A 1400-1800

8%-50% 12x PE

-20% 15x
PE

09 +

20% 01-08
WTO
A ROE 7-8%
PE 15x PB1.2xPE=PB/ROE PB 1.9x

08 09

GDP 8% 0.5%
8% 1% 0

09

10% PB

25%25%
1:3
DDM

-70%

GDP 8% 7%-8%
5%

8 25%9 50%
10

3
2 3498 3512 2.15% 2.12%
3

3
2 3
3 3
2 3

17.26

2008 11 14
A

14

10

17.27

A 1997

ALPHA

2008 11 20

10
6 4

ING

TOPDOWN
COVER BOTTOM
UP

2001 1970

40
100

BETA

ALPHA

2500
BETA

2008 11 27

238

CPI

M2

08

4000
30002800

17.8
3

39


2500 2200 1600

3000


08
6%

09

09 8%

-5%0%

2
A

500


300 08PE1518 09

2010
09 PE18

20 09
PE15

PE15

700800

1100

700900


50008000
50008000

GDP

09
5% 8%
7.5%7%

7.5%8%09
7.5%

08 23%

710%

GDP

08

0%

20%
08 22.2%

09 12%

PMI

4 50

50

50

CPI

11 12 CPI
2.9%2.2%


0.40.30.70.2%

PPI

10

09

CRB

4565

CRB

2.5%

5055

6080
10

RMBUSD


3%

2.4%

6.86.9

09 6.76.8

M1

8%

810%

09
12%

08 14.7%

09 15.7%09

08

A
12
2 5060%

2008 12 4

30

17.28

120%

90%

60%

30%

19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08

0%

17.29
35

25

()

30
20
25
15

20
15

10

10
5
5
0

0
78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

17.907 97
GDP

1997
-0.5%-1%

25800
40%50%

5.7%

2007
4.3%
5682
6%
9.9%


11
12
50
12 300 12

17.30
110
100

50

300

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
-1
-1
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
17.31
100%

80%
60%
40%
20%

20
07
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
E

-20%

20
05
20
06
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
06
Q3
20
06
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q2
20
07
Q3

20
05
Q2
20
05
Q3

0%

VC PE

VC PE
VC PE

A 2

2
1
2000
4.8 6200 3000
9200
3.7
4895 1000 11%
17.10 2000

12 2020
6 15-19
3% 5 740
525 1701 30-40%
17.31

5000
4000

70%

60%

3000

50%

2000

40%

1000

30%

20%
2004

2005

2006

2007

-
5%-10% 12

800-900650-8001500-1700
800-1200
17.3209-20

2500

2007

2000
1500
1000
500
0

11 21
4
3G

2008 12 31

Yes, Stocks Are Dirt Cheap 30

17.1108 A

%
MXX
100

-24.19
-33.10

-35.59
-36.04

300
500

-37.56
-40.79
-41.09

SMSI

-41.64

DAX

-41.68

IBOVESPA

-41.99

OMXSPI
225

-42.64
-42.86
-43.06

CAC40

-44.23
-44.65

-48.08
-48.29

-48.82

MIBTel

Sensex30

-49.33
-51.17
-53.01

AEX
ATX

-53.31
-61.19

RTS

-65.16
-71.94

-48.87

17.332008 12 30

12 20% 500 15 1380


1Normal EPS 92
49 1871-2007 56.4 1981
EPS 2 ERP

0
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/125716?sort=reverse&start=1&count=5#dtk-c
mtscnt
89%
01 82%

17.34
6

82%!!!

85.5%!!!

0
69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

A 1800

N
17.362009

09

E-mailwyzc@sina.comwangcheng6461@gtjas.com

2010 7

You might also like