Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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100
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1955 IT 1955
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IT IT
1.1 IT
Bill Gates
1955-10-28
Paul Allen
1953-1-21
Steve Ballmer
1956-3-24
Steve Jobs
1955-2-24
Eric Schmidt
1955-4-27
Bill Joy
Scott McNealy
1954-11-13
Vinod Khosla
1955-1-28
Andy Bechtolsheim
1955-9-30
1954-11-8
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45
3.1ILBS
DEFLATION
INFLATION
DISINFLATION
RUNAWAY INFLATION
3.2
500
60 70
80%
80
9799 2000
NASDAQ
2002
2008
2008 2009
2010
1
70
07 08
20
3.31850-2008
12
11
10
9
(LHS
RHS)
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
3.41897-2008
40
CPIYOY%LHS
RHS
10
9
30
8
20
7
10
6
0
1897
1907
1917
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
2007 5
1997
-10
-20
3.51953-2008
17
20
CPIYOY%
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
Jan-07
Jan-04
Jan-01
Jan-98
Jan-95
Jan-92
Jan-89
Jan-86
Jan-83
Jan-80
Jan-77
Jan-74
Jan-71
Jan-68
Jan-65
Jan-62
Jan-59
Jan-56
-1
Jan-53
3.61953-2008
Aaa
Baa
18
16
3.0
2.5
14
2.0
12
10
1.5
1.0
6
0.5
Apr-07
Apr-04
Apr-01
Apr-98
Apr-95
Apr-92
Apr-89
Apr-86
Apr-83
Apr-80
Apr-77
Apr-74
Apr-71
Apr-68
Apr-65
Apr-62
Apr-59
Apr-56
0.0
Apr-53
3.71950-2008
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan-06
Jan-02
Jan-98
Jan-94
Jan-90
Jan-86
Jan-82
Jan-78
Jan-74
Jan-70
Jan-66
Jan-62
Jan-58
Jan-54
Jan-50
150
30%
3.8
S1
S2
E1
D1
E2
D2
3.9
S1
S2
E1
D1
E2
D2
20 1914
3.1018651879
US IP Index(LHS)
US Wholesale Price Index(RHS)
900
250
800
200
700
600
150
500
400
100
300
200
50
100
18
92
18
89
18
86
18
83
18
80
18
77
18
74
18
71
18
68
18
65
18
62
18
59
18
56
18
53
18
50
3.12 20 30
US IP Index(LHS)
US Wholesale Price Index(RHS)
5000
4500
230
210
4000
190
3500
170
3000
150
2500
130
2000
110
1500
90
500
70
50
19
10
19
12
19
14
19
16
19
18
19
20
19
22
19
24
19
26
19
28
19
30
19
32
19
34
19
36
19
38
19
40
1000
3.1320-30
30
CPIYOY%LHS
(RHS)
400
350
20
300
10
250
0
0
n- 2
Ja-10
3
n- 2
Ja
6
n- 2
Ja
9
n- 2
Ja
2
n- 3
Ja
5
n- 3
Ja
8
n- 3
Ja
200
150
-20
100
-30
50
-40
1600
45000
40000
1400
35000
1200
30000
1000
25000
800
20000
600
15000
400
10000
200
5000
Sep-07
Sep-05
Sep-03
Sep-01
Sep-99
Sep-97
Sep-95
Sep-93
Sep-91
Sep-89
Sep-87
11
1 1913-1915 1930-1933
20
18%
2 1
17%
3 1
-4Q
-3Q
-2Q
-1Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1900-1901
1903-1904
12
10
23%
14%
-21%
-32%
-11%
-31%
-4%
-30%
4%
-12%
13%
10%
28%
9%
21%
16%
9%
41%
1907-1909
1910-1912
1913-1915
12
16
16
52%
1%
-30%
-38%
-14%
-14%
-27%
-8%
-6%
-27%
-3%
0%
-13%
9%
0%
15%
0%
6%
24%
-2%
1%
36%
1%
-9%
47%
-11%
/
1921-1923
26
44%
-27%
-19%
-12%
-11%
3%
-10%
-4%
7%
1926-1929
1930-1933
35
45
94%
-67%
20%
-15%
3%
-9%
2%
-29%
11%
13%
-6%
1%
-2%
-11%
3%
-33%
13%
-30%
1938-1940
1949-1950
1954-1955
23
14
12
12%
20%
39%
-47%
-12%
37%
-42%
-7%
28%
-36%
-2%
19%
-18%
-3%
8%
35%
6%
12%
43%
14%
14%
56%
21%
25%
33%
33%
29%
20
18%
-15%
-12%
-11%
-1%
9%
10%
12%
17%
95 07
GDP
1 90
30
3
3.290
GDP
1998-1999
11
-0.4%
1998-2004
68
-13.8%
2001-2002
21
-0.2%
1998-2006
78
16
-3.5%
1996-1998
17
-0.6%
1998-2000
25
-2.2%
01
01
3.15
YOY%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Mar-08
Mar-06
Mar-04
Mar-02
Mar-00
Mar-98
Mar-96
Mar-94
Mar-92
Mar-90
Mar-88
Mar-86
Mar-84
Mar-82
Mar-80
-5%
Mar-78
0%
-10%
-15%
-20%
3.16
30%
(YOY%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Mar-01
Mar-98
Mar-95
Mar-92
Mar-89
Mar-86
Mar-83
Mar-80
Mar-77
Mar-74
Mar-71
Mar-68
Mar-65
Mar-62
Mar-59
-5%
Mar-56
0%
-10%
90
89 12
-97 12 58% 270%
1
1
3.17 90
GDPYOY%
CPIYOY%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
Mar-06
Mar-04
Mar-02
Mar-00
Mar-98
Mar-96
Mar-94
Mar-92
Mar-90
Mar-88
Mar-86
Mar-84
-3%
Mar-82
-1%
Mar-80
1%
-5%
3.18 90
12%
GDP(YOY%)
CPI(YOY%)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Sep-07
Sep-05
Sep-03
Sep-01
Sep-99
Sep-97
Sep-95
Sep-93
Sep-91
Sep-89
-2%
Sep-87
0%
-4%
-6%
3.19 90
TOPIX500YOY%RHS
120%
50%
100%
45%
80%
40%
60%
35%
40%
30%
20%
25%
0%
-20%
-40%
Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- 20%
1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
15%
-60%
10%
-80%
5%
-100%
0%
6 4
1920-1921 1937-1938
3.3Friedman
1873-1879
-1.5%
-36.8%
73-78
1873
1893-1894
-7.2%
1907-1909
-15.6%
-1.7%
07-08
1921-1923
-2.9%
-36.6%
22-23
1929-1933
1938-1940
-6.8%
-39.6%
-37.8%
29-33
-12.6%
-10.1%
36-38
18901893
/
1906
1919
1907 M2 -3.51%
1920 4.75%
7%
1929 M2 4
1937
M2 1
3.4Gary Shilling 14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
3.20
3.21
//
3.5
LOSERS
WINNERS
AAA
70
60
GREAT SOCIETY
/GDP
1969
50
60
1973
70
9394
A 10
3.22
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
400
82%!!!
85.5%!!!
0
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
70
GDP
(Stagflation)(Stagnation)
(Inflation)
3.24 1969-1982 13
GDP YOY%
10GDP
17
CPI YOY%
10CPI
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
Mar-08
Mar-05
Mar-02
Mar-99
Mar-96
Mar-93
Mar-90
Mar-87
Mar-84
Mar-81
Mar-78
Mar-75
Mar-72
Mar-69
Mar-66
Mar-63
Mar-60
Mar-57
Mar-54
-3
Mar-51
-1
Mar-48
-5
1867-1960
16
12
60 1960 M2
GDP CPI 1969-1983
GDP GDP
CPI
3.5 M2 GDP
M2
GDP
M2
GDP
1968 7
1968 9
1971 12
1972 12
1976 2
1983 3
1987 2
1970 3 1970 10
1970 12
1973 3
9
15
1974 6 1975 5
1975 3
7
11
1976 5
1984 2
1988 1
1978 12
1984 3
1988 6
3
11
11
1979 3 1980 7
1986 3 1987 1
1989 6 1991 4
1980 9
1987 3
1991 3
16
10
10
1999 2
2000 6
2000 6
16
1993 4 1996 1
1995 12
21
2001 12
2005 6
2004 6
30
2000 7 2001 12
2001 12
2005 5
12.8
10.5
3.25M2 GDP
16
M2
GDP
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
-4
1867-1960
3.26Fed CPI 70
16
25
M2
CPI
14
20
12
10
15
8
10
6
4
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
3.6 M2 CPI
M2
CPI
M2
CPI
1963 11
1966 11
36
1967 2
1967 10
1968 2
1971 12
1970 1
1974 12
22
36
1970 3
1974 6
1972 8
1976 12
29
30
1976 2
1980 4
51
1979 3
1983 8
54
1983 3
1984 4
13
1986 3
1986 12
1987 2
1999 2
1990 12
2000 6
2001 12
2008 7
47
16
80
1989 6
1993 4
1992 2
1994 5
2000 7
2002 2
33
13
19
2005 6
2006 10
16
38
24
70
1970-1972 60
72
1973-197473
73 10
1975-1977
77
1978-1982
1978 (Humphrey Hawkins Act)
79
70
4 NBER
1970 11 1975 3 1980 7 1982 11 GDP -1.7
1
3.7 GDP
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q
19823Q
-4Q
0.7
2.3
4.4
2.4
-3Q
-2Q
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
1.3
1.4
1.2
-2.5
0.7
-0.4
-1Q
0.4
-0.2
-1.9
-2.3
-0.7
-1.6
-1.2
-2.7
-0.9
-1.7
1Q
2Q
2.8
3.2
-1.8
0.8
0
1.7
-1.4
1.5
-0.1
1.8
3Q
4Q
3.1
4.5
2.5
6.1
2.9
4.4
3.2
5.7
2.9
5.2
3.27 4
GDP YOY %
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q
1982:3Q
5
4
3
2
1
0
-4Q
-1
-3Q
-2Q
-1Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
-2
-3
-4
-5
CPI 6-10%
3.8 CPI
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q
1982:3Q
-4Q
-3Q
6.2
5.82
10.39
10.86
12.18
13.29
10.95
8.92
9.93
9.72
-2Q
6.01
11.95
14.76
6.78
9.88
-1Q
5.66
12.34
14.38
7.06
9.86
1Q
2Q
3Q
5.57
4.71
4.64
4.08
10.25
9.39
7.91
6.94
12.6
12.52
10.49
9.55
5.04
3.83
3.6
2.58
8.37
7.61
6.66
5.79
4Q
3.27
6.07
10.95
2.86
5.79
3.28 4
CPI YOY %
20
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q
1982:3Q
15
10
0
-4Q
-5
-3Q
-2Q
-1Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
GDP 1
31%
3.9
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q
1982:3Q
-4Q
-3Q
-10.66%
-18.48%
-5.42%
-4.18%
-0.54%
-6.29%
21.65%
4.48%
1.26%
-6.12%
-2Q
-1Q
1Q
-12.15%
-9.90%
-7.67%
-13.29%
-4.10%
-18.14%
-11.34%
-2.69%
-8.82%
-11.01%
-10.57%
14.32%
-6.49%
5.64%
-14.70%
-6.21%
-10.57%
-7.41%
-10.58%
1.59%
2Q
11.80%
28.45%
1.67%
13.16%
13.77%
3Q
4Q
14.58%
25.92%
39.63%
48.33%
15.24%
21.65%
21.46%
29.64%
22.73%
31.39%
3.29 4
%
60%
50%
19704Q
19751Q
19803Q
1982:3Q
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-4Q
-3Q
-2Q
-1Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
-10%
-20%
-30%
+
3
72 73
3.30CRB
20
350
10%
3%
CRB
18
16
300
14
250
12
10
200
8
150
6
4
100
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
50
72
71
69-82 CPI
1
CRB CPI
2 CPI
3 CPI 82
4 CPI
3.10
1969
1970
1973
1974
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
500
-11.4
0.1
-17.4
-29.7
31.5
12.3
25.8
-9.7
14.8
1.8
20.6
500
CRB
3.1
3.5
3.2
-1.1
3.2
48.6
3.4
0.5
3.6
-6.2
5.1
22.9
5.7
9.4
6.2
6.7
-18.4 -7.9
4.5
5.7
1.5
19.8
3.3
-14.2
-26.3
35.2
17.4
31.5
-3.5
21.4
6.3
21.3
2.0
-4.7
15.7
-2.2
0.5
2.3
35.5
7.0
14.2
2.1
6.2
7.5
11.0
12.3
9.1
14.7
11.3
9.3
13.5
5.8
10.3
4.9
6.2
7.9
8.8
3.8
2.9
-23.7
10.0
5.3
126.5
88.9
4.9
15.2
33.3
9.9
28.0
-32.6 14.9
-0.5 -12.4
12.0
25.7
38.4
10.9
52.5
52.2
500
-8.3
CPI
Arab
6.5
5.5
-14.4
0.0
8.0
5.7
6.5
0.0
67.0
103.2
72.3
123.2
GDP 2010
2011
3.34 GDP 2010 2011
2010
2011 CPI 7 10
GDP 12%
11% 10% 8%8.5% 9% 5% 6%
GDP
3.35 GDP
3.36 GDP
3.37 GDP
3.38 GDP
1
GDP
3.391992 GDP
GDP:%
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
GDP
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
GDP
3.41 M1
M1:
50
40
RHS)
120
100
80
30
60
20
40
20
10
0
0
-20
FAI 50%
FAI
3.42
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009-07
2009-01
2008-07
2008-01
2007-07
2007-01
2006-07
2006-01
2005-07
2005-01
2004-07
3.43
200
150
120
100
80
100
60
50
40
20
-50
0
-20
3.44
RHS
120
160
100
120
80
80
60
40
40
20
0
-40
-20
-80
70
0.7
0.7
1997-99
FAI 3
3.45
RHS)
70%
140%
50%
130%
30%
120%
110%
10%
100%
-10%
90%
-30%
80%
3.46PPI
FAI
PPI(RHS)
100
15
80
10
60
5
40
0
20
-5
-20
-10
2010
3.47 M1
40
30
M1RHS)
140
100
60
20
20
10
0
3.48
-20
-60
110
90
70
50
30
10
-10
-30
3.49
RHS
60
115
50
110
40
105
30
100
20
95
10
90
85
FAI
20%-30%
3.50 FAI
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
3.51
80
60
40
20
0
-20
3.52
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
3.53
GDP
100
80
60
40
20
0
3.54
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
3.55
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3.56(2008-2009)
3.57
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3.58
70.00
50.00
30.00
10.00
-10.00
3.59
RHS
20
16
12
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
8
4
1500
1000
500
50%
20%
3.60
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
3.61 GDP
3.62
RHS)
80
130
60
120
40
110
20
0
100
-20
90
-40
80
2
CPI PPIPPI
PPI PPI
3.63 PPI
PPI CRB
3.64 PPI CRB
CRB
PPIRHS)
500
15
450
10
400
350
300
250
-5
200
-10
70 02-04
PPI CPI()
PPI CPI
PPI CPI
3.65PPI CPI
PPI 2009
2010 2010
3.66PPI 101112 0.2
4.00
3, 3.65
5, 3.34
3.50
2, 3.34
3.00
4, 3.45
6, 3.03
1, 2.62
2.50
7, 2.01
2.00
8, 1.20
1.50
9, 0.60
1.00
10, 0.40
0.50
11, 0.20
12, 0.00
0.00
1
10
11
12
CPI 50%
3.67CPI 50%
3.68CPI
CPI CPI
CPI
3.69CPI
25
20
15
10
-1
-2
-5
-3
CPI 0809 10 V
CPI 2010 1.16 v
3.702010 10 0.411 0.312 0.5CPI
2.50
6, 2.12
7, 2.12
2.00
8, 1.61
5, 1.61
1.50
4, 1.30
1.00
9, 1.20
3, 1.10
1, 0.80
10, 0.80
2, 0.80
0.50
11, 0.50
12, 0.00
0.00
1
10
11
12
20 30
08
60
2009 2009
NN 2500
3000
3000 N
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010 2010
2010
23
4.1
FDI
1M0
2M1 M0
3M2 M1
M2 M1
4.1
M1M2
M2-M1
M2- GDP
M1 M2 2009 22 60.62
2010 M2
M0M1M2
4.2 M2 M2
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
4.3M2/GDP
2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
4.4M2/
M2/GDP
10
8
6
4
2
0
M2 M2
M1
M1 M2-M1
4.5M1 M2
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
M1(YOY)
M2(YOY)
M2(YOY)-M1(YOY)(
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
M1 1992 M1 20.7%
93 M1 10% 25%2009 9 M1 29.5%
4.6M1
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
4.7M1
7000
6000
45
M1YOY)
40
35
5000
30
4000
25
3000
20
2000
15
10
1000
M1
2000-2001
2000 6 M1
1 2001 M1
M1 2000 6 M1
2010 M1
2010 12%2010 M1
2 M1
4.8M1 1011 1%12 3%
M2 - GDP M2
GDP
2007
M2-GDP 2007 10
4.9 M2-GDP
6,000
5,000
M2-GDP
25.0
20.0
4,000
15.0
3,000
10.0
2,000
1,000
0
5.0
0.0
4.10
50
40
30
20
10
4.11
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
M1-M2 M1
M2 M1
M2 43%13%
M1 63% M1-M2 -
4.12M1-M2
7000
M1-M2
6000
15
10
5000
4000
0
3000
-5
2000
1000
-10
-15
4.13M1-M2
140
15
130
M1-M2
10
5
120
0
110
-5
100
90
-10
-15
M1-M2
M1
>M2
M1 >M2
M1 >M2
4.2
4.14
40
%
30
20
10
4.15
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
4.16
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
2009 7
4.17
2,000
1,200
1,000
1,500
800
600
1,000
400
500
200
0
0
-200
-500
-400
2009
4.18%
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
4.3 2010
2009 2009
17
19
21
17
19
21
68000
76000
84000
68000
76000
84000
3.52
15.70
27.88
16.21
28.39
40.56
60
55
50
-5.11
-13.73
6.06
-3.58
4.19%
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
4.20%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
4.21%
17.22
6.57
7.58
-1.05
18.74
9.10
42.59
31.94
50%
100%
40%
90%
30%
80%
20%
70%
10%
0%
60%
07
09 2
94.8%
4.22%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
4.23
25
20
84%
78%
15
72%
10
66%
5
0
60%
4.24
%
%RHS)
11.60
9.40
11.20
9.20
10.80
9.00
10.40
8.80
10.00
8.60
4.25
%
200
160
120
80
40
0
4.4
FDI
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
ROE
Wind
ROE
Wind
TED
12 / NDF
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Wind
Wind
4.26
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
4.2708
700
500
-FDI-
6000
5500
5000
300
4500
4000
100
3500
-1002002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01
3000
2500
-300
2000
-500
1500
-700
1000
05 7 21
4.28
700
10%
-FDI-
1NDF
500
8%
6%
300
4%
2%
100
0%
-1002000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-01
-2%
-4%
-300
-6%
-500
-8%
-700
-10%
4.2905 3 21%
25%
0511
20%
15%
10%
5%
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
0%
2010 40%
3-5% NDF
10 3 18 1 2.4%
4.302010 1 2.4%
11%
1NDF
9%
7%
5%
3%
-5%
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
-3%
Apr-05
-1%
Jan-05
1%
20052007 05
0506 07 210%74%48%
2010
20-30% 2010
05-06
4.3105
800
-FDI-
FDI
600
400
200
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
(200)
Jan-04
(400)
(600)
(800)
2010
05-08
9900
07
2009
2009
2009
2007-2008
4.3399-01
4.342007
4.3509
4.36 2009
)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
4.37
123
456
PPIROE
4.5
/ ROE&ROA
/
PPI,CPI
ROE
4.382010
Wind
Wind
07
08
09 10
1
2
3
4.6
AEPS(
EPS% A%
1996
0.24
121
1997
0.25
35
1998
0.19
-25
-7
1999
0.21
18
2000
0.21
56
2001
0.15
-30
-24
2002
0.15
-19
2003
0.20
34
-4
2004
0.23
16
-15
2005
0.20
-12
-10
2006
0.24
17
113
2007
0.42
76
174
2008
0.34
-20
-63
2009
0.41
21
110
4.39
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
4.40
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
4.41
350
300
400
250
200
150
100
50
A 50%
4.42
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
4.43
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
ROE
ROE
ROE=
------
------
=/
/
/
/
/--------
------
-------
2009
2009 A 10798 2008 27.5% A
09 26% 09 31.6%
2009 7.27% 6.8% 40.5%
2009 2732 2008 378
2009 1125 2008
417 32% 3 17.9%
3 8.5%
09 Q4Q3Q2 -4.8%2.9% 36%
4.44
60%
40%
20%
0%
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4.45
40%
30%
20%
10%
4.46
500
40%
600
30%
400
300
20%
200
10%
100
0
0%
4.47
/
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
4.48
16%
12%
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4%
0%
4.49ROE
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ROE
ROE
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12%
8%
4%
0%
09 58.6% 02
4.50
60%
56%
52%
48%
44%
40%
4.51
20
16
12
8
4
0
4.52
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200%
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4.53
4.54
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
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09 10
2010/5/10
/
4.55
20062007
2008
2009 2010 28%
GDP
PPI
PPI
PPI PPI
4.56 PPI
50
PPI
PPI
PPI
40
30
20
10
0
-10
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%
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50
25
15
40
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30
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10
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%
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30
PPI-PPIRHS
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10
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0
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140
M1%RHS)
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30
100
20
60
20
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10
P/ EP/ E
P/ E
10-20
4.60 PE
50
2000
45
Price Earnings Ratio
Price-Earnings Ratio
40
1929
35
30
1966
25
20
15
10
5
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
2010 4 A A
H
4.61A
A(, ,)
94APE
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4
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70
60
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50
Average
40
30
20
- 1SD
10
- 2SD
4.62
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1994
4.63 A
A
94APB
+1 SD
-1 SD
10
9
8
7
6
+ 1SD
Average
4
3
2
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94
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
4.64A/H
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 4
4.65
10
18
225
PE
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14
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DAX
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8
1
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4.66
4
3
2
1
0
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TTM
TTM
TTM
TTM/TTM(RHS)
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0.5
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20
0.3
0
0.2
A
A 94
40 PB 3.8 A PE20-50 PB2-5
A
M-M
4.702008
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2010
10
2007
50
20-25
16-17
4.71
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4%
74%
2009
PE
1617
=
=
Rf
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M1/M2
A PE EPS
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APE(TTM,
ARHS
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70
80%
60
60%
50
40%
40
20%
30
0%
20
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10
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4.73A
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120%
RHS)
50
40
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30
40%
20
0%
10
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PE PB A PE PE
A PE
4.73A
PERHS)
7000
80
6000
70
60
5000
50
4000
40
3000
30
2000
20
1000
10
4.74A
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
4.75 M1/M2
M1/M2RHS
80
180%
70
160%
60
140%
50
120%
40
100%
30
80%
20
60%
10
40%
20%
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
16-17
A
20
2007 5.30
2008
()() 3
3
1993 2 1994 7
1994
7 30
1996 10
12 16
44 55
1999 5 19
6
15
1999 6 45 48
?
?
2000
2007
2 3
2
5.1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010
2009
66230 66230 7749 2009
1776 13
17811787 13
1787
19 20
1902 95%
1913 16
1803 1500 (
200 )1913 16
1982
47.6% 32.9% 7.5%
3
20 70
1980
20 30
70
20 70
70
19 80
20 90
GDP
GDP
14 GDP 8%-9%
1920 15.4%1937 18.3%
1960 GDP
28.5% 1980 GDP 43.3% 1994 GDP 49%
5.2 GDP
/GDP
/GDP
1929
3100
10.0
1993
129100
38.0
1939
8800
19.4
1994
1325500
37.0
1949
38800
23.0
1995
1369200
37.0
1959
92100
26.8
1996
1416000
36.5
1969
1979
183600
503500
30.4
31.1
1997
1998
1468700
1518300
35.4
34.7
1984
1985
851800
1074200
34.4
34.8
1999
2000
1620800
1721600
34.3
34.2
1988
1039000
36.2
2001
1825600
35.3
1989
1099100
36.1
2002
1956600
36.3
1990
1180200
37.1
2003
2075500
36.7
1991
1234400
37.8
2004
2183800
36.4
1992
1271000
38.5
2005
36.6
GDP 34%
OECD 1985 GDP 60%
30% 7.2 OECD 1960-2004
GDP
5.3OECD GDP %
1960
1985
1990
1995
2000
2004
1960-1984
21.4
25.4
36.6
33.3
36.2
34.5
39.2
35.3
35.7
36.7
35.9
36.9
35.7
34.4
50.7
47.7
51.5
49.0
56.0
50.3
51.4
49.8
49.9
48.8
30.3
27.5
54.4
46.5
51.9
45.3
51.4
47.2
48.6
48.7
48.7
48.7
28.9
26.0
47.0
38.9
48.8
43.0
48.5
43.2
41.1
41.1
39.9
40.6
24.8
27.3
59.5
57.0
55.9
54.6
59.5
56.7
53.9
56.2
55.1
56.8
26.6
29.7
41.5
40.5
48.3
53.7
59.0
55.1
48.8
55.9
50.8
52.7
34.6
34.9
52.4
48.5
49.3
47.7
54.4
49.0
51.6
50.1
53.5
49.8
32.4
35.0
47.2
45.4
44.5
42.5
48.3
45.1
45.1
46.4
47.0
43.3
17.4
21.1
43.2
34.6
50.2
34.5
51.0
40.9
52.1
47.9
49.8
43.3
28.2
36.4
35.6
33.4
41.7
38.5
43.0
40.1
42.7
45.2
47.3
47.3
1960-1984
28.0
24.8
54.6
44.3
42.9
40.1
41.2
39.1
31.5
35.9
33.7
35.2
30.1
28.8
58.4
44.1
54.4
42.6
53.4
45.8
46.9
46.2
48.7
45.4
18.3
20.7
32.7
31.2
31.8
33.9
35.9
31.2
38.3
30.8
37.5
31.0
1960-1982
30.5
32.5
56.4
53.0
43.3
48.1
45.0
47.6
38.6
44.6
45.2
44.6
33.7
33.9
60.2
54.4
52.5
47.4
49.3
45.3
43.4
45.6
46.6
44.5
29.9
33.1
48.1
56.1
54.0
56.2
51.5
54.9
42.7
58.2
46.7
58.1
1960-1981
17.0
17.6
43.9
33.3
40.6
34.2
43.4
38.1
43.7
40.8
46.5
43.5
1964-1984
18.8
18.1
39.3
33.2
42.5
38.6
44.1
37.8
38.9
38.1
38.8
38.6
31.0
32.1
64.5
59.4
61.9
65.3
67.7
60.8
57.4
62.4
57.3
58.7
17.2
23.3
30.9
34.4
30.0
30.6
34.6
33.3
33.9
36.3
36.7
35.2
1960-1984
32.3
30.0
47.8
42.8
42.2
40.7
45.0
39.1
37.5
41.3
43.9
40.7
17.0
26.3
36.7
31.1
37.1
32.8
37.0
33.8
34.2
35.8
36.4
31.7
26.6
27.7
47.3
42.9
40.2
37.3
42.1
38.2
39.1
39.4
40.8
37.3
20
10% 20
GDP
GDP
GDP
4(
)
19
2009
09
1998-2000
2009 9 2009 7284
5.1 GDP
(/GDP
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
5.2/ GDP
-4
-8
-12
5.3 2009
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
05
-0
1
05
-0
4
05
-0
7
05
-1
0
06
-0
1
06
-0
4
06
-0
7
06
-1
0
07
-0
1
07
-0
4
07
-0
7
07
-1
0
08
-0
1
08
-0
4
08
-0
7
08
-1
0
09
-0
1
09
-0
4
09
-0
7
0.00%
2009
5.4/GDP
4 3.8 3.8
3.6 3.5
3.3
3.01
2.5
2
1
0
5.5/GDP
7
6.4
6.4
6.3
6
5
4
3.4
3.3
2.8
2
2
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.6
1
0
5.6
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1969
1996
5.7
5.8
2008
2019E
GDP 09
9500 GDP 3% 3%
5.9/GDP
07
34.7 07
11.2 1.5
16.8 08 4.45
21.25
2006
2.06
10
5.42008
1
2
3
4
5
1
23
1
234
5
1
2
3
4
IS-LM LM IS
IS IS IS IS
IS IS-LM
5.10IS
R
LM
R0
Y1
Y2
Y3
()
5.11
4 30%12 60%18
80
-
M0 6 -
910
5.5
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
+-0
5.6
30
2010 5 10
14.5%
15%
0.5%
29
2010 2 25
2010 1 18
14%
14.5%
0.5%
13.5%
14%
0.5%
13.5%
-0.5%
26
2008 12 25 14%
2008 12 5 16%
14%
-2%
25
2008 10 15 16.5%
16%
-0.5%
28
27
24
2008 9 25
17.5%
16.5%
-1%
23
2008 6 25
17%
17.5%
0.5%
22
2008 6 15
17%
17.5%
0.5%
21
2008 5 20
16%
16.5%
0.5%
20
2008 4 25
15.5%
16%
0.5%
19
15%
15.5%
0.5%
18
2008 3 25
2008 1 25
14.5%
15%
0.5%
17
16
2007 12 25 13.5%
2007 11 26 13%
14.5%
13.5%
1%
0.5%
15
13%
0.5%
14
2007 10 25 12.5%
2007 9 25 12%
13%
0.5%
13
2007 8 15
11.5%
12%
0.5%
12
2007 6 5
11%
11.5%
0.5%
11
2007 5 15
10.5%
11%
0.5%
10
2007 4 16
10%
10.5%
0.5%
2007 2 25
9.5%
10%
0.5%
2007 1 15
9%
9.5%
0.5%
7
6
2006 11 15
8.5%
8%
9%
8.5%
0.5%
0.5%
7.5%
8%
0.5%
2006 7 5
2004 4 25
7%
7.5%
0.5%
2003 9 21
6%
7%
1%
1999 11 21
8%
6%
-2%
1998 3 21
13%
8%
-5%
2006 8 15
5.7
17
2008 12 23 0.27
16
2008 11 27
15
2008 10 30 0.27
14
2008 10 9
0.27
13
2008 9 16
0.27
12
2007 12 21 0.27
11
2007 9 15
0.27
10
2007 8 22
0.27
9
8
2007 7 21
2007 5 19
0.27
0.27
7
6
2007 3 18
2006 8 19
0.27
0.27
5
4
2006 4 28
2005 3 17
0.27% 5.85%
2004 10 29 0.27
1993 7 11
1993 5 15
2.58
9.18% 10.98%
2.18%
0.82
5.12
2008
2008
2008 9
2009 2 3
2 5510 3 9943 13
2732 4061
2200
09
5918 6645
2005-2008
1005 2006
5.58% 6.12% 2.25%
2.52%2007
2.52% 4.14% 6.12% 7.47%
22005
1.62% 0.99% 1.89%2006
0.5 9%2007
10 0.5
1 2007 14.5%2008 1 16 3 18
0.5
32005
1237 4587.9 2006
56.66 94.58
37.92 2007
691 2007 8 29
6000 12 20
41 7
42005
7 21 8.1100 8.07025 18
7 21
2005 7 21
2005 7 21 1900 1
8.1100 9 23
3%
1%
4%
2007 5 18
5 21
8 17
1-/
08 14%
92 96
96 20% 92
1993
61.8%
13.2% 14.7% 1994 21.7%
1993
1996
2002
08 07
12
07 11%
5.13
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
20083Q
20082Q
20081Q
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0%
1-/
08 A 25%
28%
92 02
02
93
2002
50%
2008 33%
25%2009 1 1
ROE
5.1492
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
20083Q
20082Q
2007
20081Q
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
10%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
(boom)
(bust)
600
fiat money
fiat money
fiat money
GDP
1998 2008
1998
20%
GDP
1974
1990
70 90
2010 2
2010 2009
2010
GDP
1980 1994
2006
()
(
GDP )
94
94
100
80
60
40
20
0
5.17
100
80
60
40
20
0
5.82006
295.23
24.23
194.39
4485.18
1296
1966.96
6.18%
1.84%
8.99%
93.82%
98.16%
91.01%
5.61
902.07
0.62%
99.38%
2007
241.2
11445.04
1882.7
38120.36
11.36%
23.09%
88.64%
76.91%
5.9
FS
L
FS
FS
FS L
L
SF
S
L
CS
C
FS
FL
FL
FS
FL
L
FS
CS
FS
FS
FS
FS
F
F
FS
FS
CF C
S
SF FS
FS
FS
CF C
FS
S
CF SC
FS
FS
F
FC
FS
FS
L
L
FS
FS
FS SL
L
FS SL
L
FS
SL
FS
FS
FS F
L
FS F
F
FS
L
F
F=/S=/L=
C=
2008
5.18
123
4
5.19
100
95
90
60 60
45 45
42
40 40
GDP
2010
2009
GDP 2009
5.20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
2009 2010
2009 12 7
2009 12 9 2 5
2009 12 14
2009 12 17
50%
2010 1 5
(REITs)
2010 1 10
40%
2010 1 12 0.5%
2010 1 13
2010 1 20 ()
2010 1 21
2010 1 25 9
2010 1 31
2010 3 22
2010 3 23 78
15
2010 4 2 90
2010 4 7
2010 4 11
2010 4 14
2010 4 15 50%
1.1 90 30%
2010 4 17
2010 4 19
103 2 50%
07 9 3 90 30%4
5 7
238 85 149
2009 2010
2009
2008
5.21
3000-4000
5.22
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
5.23
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5.24
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5.25
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
0
10 11 12
5.26
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5.27
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
0
10 11 12
1 6.6
63.46
2
3 63.46
22.5%
564.1
4
139.83
182.85 241.42
5.10
6.6
6.60
80%
1.65
20%
8.25
100%
63.46
13%
5.11
7374
5018
2
6342
5367
100% 3587.0
26451.
100.00
22.48
100%
89.43
100.00
6.80
4368.3
2191.8
8.29%
33.62
10.18 98.36
7.48%
4
60
%
%
8.60
3261.0
2068.2
7.82%
15.50
5.93
88.76
8.54%
%
3
3
%
7.28
3002.3
1611.3
6.09% 14.73
4.77
86.40
7.03%
%
3
8
%
1672 22.68
%
8
3510
9
5872
22.20
20.69
%
20.87
90.88
23.05
7
%
%
%
%
5.12
22.00%
22.20%
22.50%
22.68%
23.00%
55.00
500.00
495.56
488.89
484.94
478.26
60.00
545.45
540.61
533.33
529.03
521.74
63.46
576.92
571.80
564.10
559.55
551.84
65.00
590.91
585.66
577.78
573.11
565.22
70.00
636.36
630.71
622.22
617.20
608.70
5.13
564.10
/
2006
2005-2006
89.43
48.00
10.63%
6.36%
936.00
139.83
24.79%
22.48
69.27
13.82%
11.84%
1744.50
182.85
32.42%
62.05
90.83
54.01%
23.51%
788.10
241.42
42.80%
137.43
1.77%
1.95%
91.75
1.13%
1.14%
152.88
23.24%
11.59%
2008
2011 11
2008 12 1 2012 11
22 2009 2 1
2013 1
2009
2009
2010
4
2000 4
4.8 6200 3000 9200
1200 /4 6200
//
()/
()
2010
2010
20 80 90
1
2
3
A
2010 A
10
85%
6.1
22%
4%
74%
6.2
25%
6%
69%
6.3
100%
85.1%
80%
60%
40%
20%
2013-10
2013-05
2012-12
2012-07
2012-02
2011-09
2011-04
2010-11
2010-06
2010-01
2009-08
2009-03
2008-10
2008-05
2007-12
2007-07
2007-02
2006-09
2006-04
2005-11
2005-06
2005-01
0%
1
A
A
IPO
IPO
2009 9 09
IPO 2842 2006 2677 2007 7985
2008 3516 2009 6
2010 2007
A
2010
6.4IPO
1600
1400
7000
IPO()
()
1200
6000
5000
1000
4000
800
3000
600
400
200
20
06
-0
20 5
06
-0
20 8
06
-1
20 1
07
-0
20 2
07
-0
20 5
07
-0
20 8
07
-1
20 1
08
-0
20 2
08
-0
20 5
08
-0
20 8
08
-1
20 1
09
-0
20 2
09
-0
20 5
09
-0
20 8
09
-1
20 1
10
-0
2
2000
1000
0
6.5
()
()
()
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2009
7 2010 4 3000 300
2010
250 2010 2000
6.6
700
7000
600
6000
500
5000
400
4000
300
3000
200
2000
100
1000
0
20
06
20 -0 5
06
20 -0 7
06
20 -0 9
06
20 -1 1
07
20 -0 1
07
20 -0 3
07
20 -0 5
07
20 -0 7
07
20 -0 9
07
20 -1 1
08
20 -0 1
08
20 -0 3
08
20 -0 5
08
20 -0 7
08
20 -0 9
08
20 -1 1
09
20 -0 1
09
20 -0 3
09
20 -0 5
09
20 -0 7
09
20 -0 9
09
20 -1 1
10
20 -0 1
10
-0
3
6.7
(RHS)
700
16
600
14
500
12
10
400
300
200
100
A PB 2
2 PB 09 7 2010 5 A PB
3 50 2010
A PB 2.5 30
240
6.8
120
100
80
60
40
20
()
-20
PB()
0
20
06
-0
20 1
06
-0
20 4
06
-0
20 7
06
-1
20 0
07
-0
20 1
07
-0
20 4
07
-0
20 7
07
-1
20 0
08
-0
20 1
08
-0
20 4
08
-0
20 7
08
-1
20 0
09
-0
20 1
09
-0
20 4
09
-0
20 7
09
-1
20 0
10
-0
20 1
10
-0
4
-40
GDP
6.9
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
6.10 GDP
/GDP
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2
1 2007
22010
3
2010 6
6.2
A
()
()
()
795.2326
603.5395
191.6932
2005
2006
65.20%
72.30%
42.80%
1313.559
1039.808
273.7505
2007
116.80%
139.80%
29.40%
2847.572
2493.467
354.1057
2008
20.10%
24.90%
-13.80%
3418.527
3113.262
305.2643
2009
13.80%
11.70%
35.40%
3890.08
3476.682
413.3984
2010E
30.57%
30.00%
35.40%
5079.428
4519.687
559.7414
267388.1
204289.1
63098.97
1.90%
2.21%
0.89%
2010 4
30
2010
6.11 2010 6
PE
PE
1/
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008 2010 4
30
6.12
180
()
7000
()
160
6000
140
5000
120
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
2010-04
2010-01
2009-10
2009-07
2009-04
2009-01
2008-10
2008-07
2008-04
2008-01
2007-10
2007-07
2007-04
2007-01
2006-10
2006-07
2006-04
2006-01
2009
62% 30 18.6
6.13
64%
62%
60%
58%
20
07
20 06
07
20 08
07
20 10
07
20 12
08
20 02
08
20 04
08
20 06
08
20 08
08
-1
20 0
08
20 12
09
20 02
09
20 04
09
20 06
09
20 08
09
20 10
09
20 12
10
20 02
10
-0
4
56%
1-10 5.5
100500 300
10~12 11
18.6 11 =200
6.3
2009-06
2009-09
2009-12
2010-03
:A :1
35.02%
35.88%
31.15%
30.55%
:A :1-10
51.19%
50.68%
52.32%
52.43%
:A :10-50
11.67%
11.40%
13.76%
14.14%
:A :50-100
1.29%
1.25%
1.66%
1.73%
:A :100-500
0.75%
0.72%
0.99%
1.03%
:A :500-1000
0.05%
0.05%
0.07%
0.08%
:A :1000
0.03%
0.02%
0.04%
0.04%
()
10.68
10.26
12.70
13.07
()
4752.34
4954.65
5012.88
5177.05
()
50774.25
50831.25
63670.37
67642.78
06 1 09 6 EVIEWS
1-7
6.14 A
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
2009-6-30
2009-4-30
2009-2-27
2008-12-31
2008-10-31
2008-8-29
2008-6-30
2008-4-30
2008-2-29
2007-12-28
2007-10-31
2007-8-31
-20
2007-6-29
2007-4-30
2007-2-28
2006-12-29
2006-10-31
2006-8-31
2006-6-30
2006-4-28
2006-2-28
-10
-20
-40
-30
-60
06 9 09 6
6
2
6.15 A
7000
25000
6000
20000
5000
15000
4000
3000
10000
2000
5000
1000
()
0
2009-5-27
2009-3-31
2009-1-23
2008-11-28
2008-9-26
2008-7-31
2008-5-30
2008-3-31
2008-1-31
2007-11-30
2007-9-28
2007-7-31
2007-5-31
2007-3-30
2007-1-31
2006-11-30
2006-9-29
2006-7-31
2006-5-31
2006-3-31
2006-1-25
6.16
300
6000
25%
5000
20%
4000
15%
3000
10%
2000
1000
5%
0%
6.17
300
6,000
5,000
41%
40%
39%
4,000
3,000
2,000
38%
37%
36%
35%
1,000
0
34%
33%
6.18
180
()
7000
()
160
6000
140
5000
120
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
2010-04
2010-01
2009-10
2009-07
2009-04
2009-01
2008-10
2008-07
2008-04
2008-01
2007-10
2007-07
2007-04
2007-01
2006-10
2006-07
2006-04
2006-01
6.19
RHS)
1,000
20
800
16
600
12
400
200
07
,
2010
0
6.20
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2010-05
2010-03
2010-01
2009-11
2009-09
2009-07
2009-05
2009-03
2009-01
2008-11
2008-09
2008-07
2008-05
2008-03
2008-01
2007-11
2007-09
2007-07
2007-05
2007-03
2007-01
2006-11
2006-09
2006-07
2006-05
2006-03
2006-01
2010 34
80% 1000
6.21
86%
84%
82%
80%
78%
76%
2010-04
2010-03
2010-02
2010-01
2009-12
2009-11
2009-10
2009-09
2009-08
2009-07
2009-06
2009-05
2009-04
74%
2007
M2 8
15
6.22M2
/M2
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
5.30
6.23
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
06.12 07.1 07.2 07.3 07.4 07.5 07.6 07.7 07.8 07.9 07.10 07.11 07.12
<120
>120
30 30
90%
6.2430
4000
100%
90%
3500
80%
70%
3000
60%
50%
2500
40%
30%
2000
20%
30
10%
10-20
09-28
09-14
08-31
08-17
08-03
07-20
07-06
06-22
06-08
05-21
05-07
04-22
04-08
03-24
03-10
02-24
02-10
01-20
01-06
12-19
0%
12-05
1500
6000
6.25
3500
80%
70%
3000
60%
2500
50%
2000
40%
()
()
10-19
09-25
09-11
08-28
08-14
07-31
07-17
07-03
06-19
06-05
05-20
05-06
04-21
04-07
03-23
03-09
02-23
02-09
01-19
30%
01-05
1500
40
1929
1002 614
338
//
6.26
80,000
14%
70,000
12%
60,000
10%
50,000
40,000
30,000
8%
6%
20,000
4%
10,000
2%
0%
WIND
78 206.4 07 21738
78 2.9% 06 7.2% 32 3
7.1
07
-08
7.2 PPI CRB %
7.3
2003 0.995
97-98
7.12003
ASEAN
0.995
0.98
0.98
0.97
0.97
0.94
0.92
0.89
0.81
0.74
www.aseansec.org
97-98 14%
98
7.497-98
7.597-98 14%
GDP
1978 -1980 1987 -1991 2007
GDP
7.6
80
1985 2 1988 11 113%
2008
97-98
7.7
7.8
8.5
260
240
8.0
220
200
7.5
180
160
7.0
6.5
2005-01
2005-03
2005-05
2005-07
2005-09
2005-11
2006-01
2006-03
2006-05
2006-07
2006-09
2006-11
2007-01
2007-03
2007-05
2007-07
2007-09
2007-11
2008-01
2008-03
2008-05
2008-07
2008-09
140
120
7.2
FODG
PCE CHNC
PITL YOY
RSTAXMOM
NHSLTOT
NBAVBASC
INJCJC
NFP T
USURTOT
OECD 12
OLE3US
OECD 12
ECRI
OECD G7 12
ECRDUSWL
ECRI
OLE3G7
OECD G7 12
1971
35 1
1971 8 15
7.91971
180
160
140
120
100
80
09
06
03
00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
76
73
70
67
60
1973 3
60%
10% 40%
20% 40% 30%
7.10
7.11 MSCI
130
MSCI AxJ
0
100
120
200
110
300
100
400
90
500
600
80
700
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
800
93
92
70
7.12
7.13
7.14
7.15
7.3
7.16
180
160
130
160
100
140
70
120
40
100
10
09
06
03
00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
60
76
-50
73
80
70
-20
M2
M2
7.17
1860
160
/()
130
1660
1460
100
1260
70
1060
860
40
660
10
460
09
06
03
00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
76
60
73
260
-50
70
-20
7.18 M2
50
180
40
160
30
140
20
10
120
100
-10
M2
-20
09
06
03
00
97
60
94
91
88
85
82
79
73
76
()
-30
70
80
7.19 M2
60
M2
50
40
30
20
10
0
7.20
05
02
99
96
93
90
87
84
81
78
75
72
-10
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
()
400
()
200
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
-12000
7.21
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Kospi
1900
1700
1500
1300
1100
900
700
500
09
06
03
00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
76
300
03-04 03 8 03 10 04
1 2
7.22
1.3
60000
1.25
50000
1.2
40000
1.15
30000
1.1
20000
1.05
10000
Au
g-0
4
Jun
- 04
Ap
r-0
4
Feb
- 04
3
De
c -0
Oc
t-0
3
Au
g-0
3
Jun
- 03
0
Ap
r-0
3
Feb
- 03
2005
2006
7.23
()
330
280
230
180
130
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
80
72
70
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
7.24
370
90
70
320
270
50
220
30
07
05
03
01
99
97
95
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
70
79
-30
77
120
75
-10
73
170
71
10
2004-2008
97
7.25
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
7.26
()
45
115
40
110
35
30
105
25
100
20
15
95
10
90
5
0
85
08-09
08-01
07-05
06-09
06-01
05-05
04-09
04-01
03-05
02-09
02-01
01-05
00-09
00-01
3
1
2
3
CPI CPI
7.27 M2
CPI
30
()
150
140
25
130
20
120
15
110
10
100
90
80
0
70
-5
60
74- 75- 76- 77- 78- 79- 81- 82- 83- 84- 85- 86- 88- 89- 90- 9101 03 05 07 09 11 01 03 05 07 09 11 01 03 05 07
7.28 CPI
2000
12
/
CPI()
10
1500
1000
500
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
CPI 1998
7.29 CPI
120
30
CPI()
110
25
20
100
15
90
10
5
80
0
-5
70
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2007 6 2008 9
WTI
88%
7.30
160
1.7
140
1.6
1.5
120
100
1.4
1.3
80
1.2
60
1.1
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
0.8
02
01
0.9
00
20
99
40
1970-2000 4 1973-19741977-19811986-1989
1993-1995 33
2003 4 5
2-5
7.31
600
60
GSCI
500
80
09
01
01
07
99
99
05
97
97
03
95
95
180
93
91
160
89
100
87
140
85
200
83
120
81
300
79
100
77
400
7.32
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
09
07
05
03
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
-80%
7.33
134
180
160
140
120
100
80
09
06
03
00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
76
73
70
67
60
1-2
FDI
90 00
00-01
GDP
7.35
6
GDP
()
2
0
-2
-4
06
03
20
20
97
00
20
94
19
19
88
91
19
19
85
82
19
79
19
19
76
73
19
19
19
70
-6
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
7.3699-03 GDP
10
GDP
8
6
4
2
0
-2
06
03
00
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
76
73
70
67
-4
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
/ 57.6%98-03
/
7.37 03
1.7
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
GDP-GDP
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
7.38
4.2
3.6
9.1
11.9
57.6
13.6
08
7.39
7.40
7.41
180
12
160
10
08
06
04
02
0
00
60
98
96
80
94
92
100
90
88
120
86
84
140
7.42
2.2
7
6
5
1.8
1.6
3
2
1.4
01
-06
04
-06
07
-06
10
-06
01
-07
04
-07
07
-07
10
-07
01
-08
04
-08
07
-08
10
-08
01
-09
1.2
00-01
3 LIBOR LIOBR
7.43/
1
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-09
Jan
-08
Jan
-07
Jan
-06
Jan
-05
Jan
-04
Jan
-03
Jan
-02
Jan
-01
Jan
Jan
-00
-3
-99
Jan
3Libor
7.44
10
1.7
1.6
0.5
1.5
1.4
-0.5
1.3
1.1
Ap
r-
De
c
05
Au
g-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ap
r- 0
6
Au
g-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ap
r- 0
7
Au
g-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ap
r- 0
8
Au
g-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ap
r- 0
9
1.2
-1.5
-0 4
-1
98 08
7.45
1.6
VIX
Tibor
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
0
92
90
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
7.46/ SP500
500
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
02
-04
06
-04
10
-04
02
-05
06
-05
10
-05
02
-06
06
-06
10
-06
02
-07
06
-07
10
-07
02
-08
06
-08
10
-08
02
-09
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
07 02
07
98-03
7.47
VIX 90 VIX
90 VIX
7.48VIX
VIX
50
4.8
4.7
40
4.6
30
4.5
20
4.4
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
4.2
94
0
92
4.3
90
10
7.49VIX
09
07
05
03
01
99
95
93
91
97
VIX
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
07 2 08 4
90-91 98 90 07 VIX
71% 07 2 08 4 -97%
82%
7.50VIX
40
VIX12
12
35
-50
30
25
20
50
15
100
10
150
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
200
91
0
90
-100
7.51VIX
VIX12
12
40
-100
-50
30
20
50
100
10
150
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
200
90
01
7.52VIX
VIX12
12
40
1200
35
1000
30
800
25
600
20
400
15
200
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
-200
92
0
91
90
7.53VIX
VIX
bp
80
1200
70
60
1000
800
50
40
30
600
400
20
10
200
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
0
01
00
CFTC
7.54
50000
NYCE
140000
40000
CME
120000
100000
30000
80000
20000
60000
10000
40000
20000
-10000
-08
12
-08
09
-08
06
-08
03
-07
12
-07
09
-07
06
-07
03
-06
12
09
06
03
12
-06
-60000
-06
-40000
-40000
-06
-20000
-30000
-05
-20000
09
2008 M2
M2
AMLFTALF
4420
12
7.55
200
GDP%
150
100
50
0
130%
30%
02 08 9 6
160% 30%
50%
7.56
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
-0 9
Jun
-0 8
De
c-0
8
Jun
-0 7
De
c-0
7
Jun
-0 6
De
c-0
6
Jun
-0 5
De
c-0
5
Jun
-0 4
De
c-0
4
Jun
-0 3
De
c-0
3
Jun
De
c-0
2
99
01 02 03
7.57
0.4
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-09
Fe
b
-08
Fe
b
-07
Fe
b
-06
Fe
b
-05
Fe
b
-04
Fe
b
-03
Fe
b
-02
Fe
b
-01
Fe
b
Fe
b
-00
-0.2
08 9
09 3
2009
21
7.58
(79-81)
(82)
(85)
(90)
ERM92)
()
()
(93)
(94)
(94)
(95)
(97)
(98)
LTCM(98)
90
1990 1979
1 2.95
92 9
10% 12%9 16
10-20
97
70
7.59
3.2
14
/
12
10
2.8
8
2.6
6
2.4
4
2.2
Jan
-9
Ap 2
r-9
2
Jul
-92
Oc
t-9
2
Jan
-9
Ap 3
r-9
3
Jul
-93
Oc
t-9
3
Jan
-9
Ap 4
r-9
4
Jul
-94
Oc
t-9
4
Jan
-9
Ap 5
r-9
5
Jul
-95
Oc
t-9
5
Jan
-9
Ap 6
r-9
6
Jul
-96
Oc
t-9
6
Jan
-9
Ap 7
r-9
7
Jul
-97
Oc
t-9
7
90
7.6097 7 1
98 8 flight-to-safety
(LTCM) LTCM 60
7.61 LTCM
90 94
98
LTCM
94
LTCM 08
7.62
8
6
HFRI%
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
-8
-10
7.63
7000
6000
BP
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
LTCM
mis-pricing
7.64
7.65
80%
500
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
0%
71
BDI
BDI
A
A
1890
1907
1994 1995
-0.18
1995 6 30
18 10 3.5% 1.9%
20000 14000
2
3
456 41
41 19
19
99%
5 10 3
20 90
0.78 0.5
0.13
-0.26-0.13
0.5-0.18
0.5
0.73
0.10 55%
-0.07-0.15-0.23
-0.27
25%
-0.27
-0.23
-0.25
A
8.1
500225
100%
60%
20%
-20%
-60%
-100%
8.2
500
100%
60%
20%
-20%
-60%
-100%
8.3A 06
500
100%
60%
20%
-20%
-60%
-100%
8.4A 07 QDII
100%
60%
20%
-20%
-60%
-100%
--A
8.5
08
03 03 98
1%
10 60% 04 2
20%
8.6
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
8.703-04
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Ma
y -0
3
Jun
-03
Jul
-03
Au
g-0
3
Sep
-03
Oc
t-0
3
No
v -0
3
De
c -0
3
Jan
-04
Fe
b-0
Ma 4
r-0
4
Ap
r-0
Ma 4
y -0
4
Jun
-04
Jul
-04
Au
g-0
4
Sep
-04
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
08 03
8.808-09
20000
300000
18000
250000
16000
200000
14000
150000
12000
100000
10000
50000
0
Oc
t-0
8
No
v -0
8
No
v -0
8
De
c -0
8
De
c -0
8
Jan
-09
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Fe
b-0
Ma 9
r-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
Ma 9
y -0
Ma 9
y -0
Ma 9
y -0
9
8000
03-04 03 8 03 10
04 1 2
8.903-04
1.3
60000
1.25
50000
1.2
40000
1.15
30000
1.1
20000
1.05
10000
Au
g-0
4
Jun
- 04
Ap
r-0
4
Feb
- 04
3
De
c -0
Oc
t-0
3
Au
g-0
3
Jun
- 03
0
Ap
r-0
3
Feb
- 03
08-09 08 10
8.1008-09
1.45
1.4
1.35
1.3
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Oc
t-0
8
No
v -0
8
No
v -0
8
De
c -0
8
De
c -0
8
Jan
- 09
Jan
- 09
Feb
- 09
Feb
-0
Ma 9
r-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y -0
9
Ma
y -0
9
Ma
y -0
9
1.25
300000
41%
500-800 /
8.11 41%07.10-08.9
,
6%
, 38%
, 26%
, 27%
, 3%
8.1207.10-08.9
, , 2%
2%
, 1%
, 8%
, 3%
, 35%
, 8%
, 16%
, 22%
8%
8.13 06 5% 8%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0510-069
0610-079
0710-089
A 1990 A 3
97 00
05 A
8.14
7000
RHS
35000
6000
30000
5000
25000
4000
20000
3000
15000
2000
10000
1000
5000
06
AH
AH AH 06 3
5 AH 1
8.15 AH
250
200
150
100
50
0
300
RHS)
6000
30000
5000
25000
4000
3000
20000
2000
15000
1000
0
10000
AH 2 1H 15%
A 2AH
A AH
A
03-07 08-09
8.17 A
/
RHS
35000
30000
1.5
25000
20000
15000
10000
0.5
5000
A
A
8.18 AH
10
6
4
2
0
8.19 AH
50
40
HRHS)
20
16
30
12
20
10
0
8
4
A
2008 11 28
A
A 70
09 0%
A A
A
QFIIQDIIA
A
108
2 2-10
2007 VIX
2008 2009
8.20 VIX
6VIX
22-10RHS
50
100
40
30
-100
20
-200
10
0
-300
8.21 A
7000
7-2
2
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1.5
1
0.5
1000
0
10-1 1
8.2210-1
3.0
4.5
1
2.5
10-1
4.0
2.0
3.5
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.5
0.5
2.0
0.0
-0.5
1.5
10-7
10-1
09-7
09-1
08-7
08-1
07-7
07-1
06-7
06-1
8.23
3.5
AAA
AA+
AA
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
08-11
09-02
09-05
8.24
09-08
09-11
10-02
10-05
3.0
3AAA
3AA+
2.5
3AA
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
08-3
08-6
08-9
08-12
09-3
09-6
09-9
09-12
10-3
10-6
07 07-08
07 11
8.25
4.0
7,000
06
3.5
300
6,000
3.0
5,000
2.5
4,000
2.0
3,000
1.5
2,000
1.0
10-8
10-5
10-2
09-11
09-8
09-5
09-2
08-11
08-8
08-5
08-2
07-11
07-8
07-5
0.0
07-3
1,000
06-11
0.5
2010 6
10%
8.26
10
CPI
8.27 10
500
10RHS
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
8.28
6
LIBOR-OIS
OIS
LIBOR TED
CDS CDS
CDS
8.29 CDS
CDS
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
8.30TED
5
TED
4
3
2
1
0
8.31
5.0
4.5
4.0
3
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
10-6
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
09-12
09-11
09-10
09-9
09-8
09-7
09-6
09-5
09-4
09-3
09-2
09-1
08-12
08-11
08-10
08-9
08-8
08-7
08-6
8.32 7
3000
12
7()
2500
10
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
10-7
10-1
09-7
09-1
08-7
08-1
07-7
07-1
06-7
06-1
05-7
05-1
04-7
8.33
10000
RHS)
1
8000
0.9
6000
0.8
4000
0.7
2000
0.6
8.34
8000
RHS
1100
900
6000
700
4000
500
2000
300
100
8.35
10RHS
160
5
4.5
120
4
80
3.5
40
2.5
8.36
RHS)
1200
130
1000
120
800
600
400
110
100
90
80
200
70
60
8.37
500
RHS
1600
1.1
1400
1200
1000
0.9
0.7
800
600
0.5
8.38
8.39
NDF
8.40 NDF
9
1NDF
8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
BDI
8.41 BDI
WIND
NASDAQ
INDU
CCMP
500
CBOE 500
SPX
VIX
500
S5COND
500
S5CONS
500
500
S5ENRS
S5HLTH
500
500
S5FINL
S5INDU
500IT
500
S5INFT
S5TELS
500
500
S5MATR
S5UTIL
10
2
USGG10YR
USGG2YR
10 AAA SPWC3A10
10 BB+ SPWC2B10
USGG3M
USSOC
3 LIBOR
US0003M
CDX 10
FCPOTOTS
CDX 10
Ted
.TEDSP
SPBDCP
15 A1+/P1
FCPONCS
ACPA015Y
FDTR
90 A1+/P1
ACPA090Y
SPWC2B10-US
GG10YR
10
USGG10YR-US
90
SPWC3A10-USGG10YR
ACPA090Y-USGG3M
-2 GG2YR
-3
DAX 30
3
DAX
GETB1
10
2
GECU10YR
GECU2YR
10
-2
GECU10YR-GE
CU2YR
ECB 1
EURR002W
FTSE 100
UKX
10
GUKG10
GUKTB3MO
GUKG2
10
-2
GUKG10-GUKG
2
BOE
UKBRBASE
NIKKEI 225
NKY
BOJDTR
BDI
BDIY
SPGSIN
CMX
LAA
CMX
HGA
CRB
CRY
COA CMDTY
WTI
CLA CMDTY
COY
WTI
EUR/GBP
USCRWTIC
EURGBP
EUR/JPY
Golds
EURJPY
DXY
EUR/USD
EURUSD
USD/GBP
USDGBP
USD/JPY
USDJPY
/
KOSPI
AUDUSD
KOSPI
USDBRL
--
19
9.1
2003
10
30%
P/E
P/E 20
20 10 P/E
P/E
50 P/E 64
32 P/E
2005 A 2007
50% 50%
10 30 200% 350%
4.5
50
9.2
9.3
3
4
8
9
10
9.4
9.5
OK
20%
23 28 33
.
1
2
3
10
5 25
2009 A
-
-
9.6
10 21
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
9.7
25
20
15
10
5
0
9.8
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
9.9 09 11
25
20
15
10
5
0
70%
50%
I II
5-10
70%
30 10
40
30
12.5%
20 20
2007
90
50 70
70
1980
1989
2007 1990
1929
2008
1998 98 08
10.1: 1997-98 2007-08
1997-1998
2007-2008
14%
07 8 80
18 97 1 -98 7 48 87
3 -91 3
50%
WTO
1500
07 2
2/3
213.7
08
1997-1998
2008
1861
0.5 1.05
1861
20
100
1982
8 1961
1961 1982 21
1982
100
20
20 10
20 10
1921
22 1899 GDP 383%
GDP 88%1982 8 1964 4
70%1982 8 20
1921 1932 1949
14
20
100
(1841-1997)2007
1907 1907
1920-1940 20
20 1929
60
40
100 40
20 30 1900 1932
30
1929 1950
10.1 20 50
1900-1950
1951-2000
400
14000
350
12000
300
10000
250
8000
200
6000
150
4000
100
2000
50
0
Feb-48
Feb-45
Feb-42
Feb-39
Feb-36
Feb-33
Feb-30
Feb-27
Feb-24
Feb-21
Feb-18
Feb-15
Feb-12
Feb-09
Feb-06
Feb-03
Feb-00
1929 7-17
10.2
450
25
400
350
20
19.1
16.9
300
16.9
15.6
15
250
200
10.01
150
10
8.4
6.9
100
50
0
0
1929
1932
1937
1938
1942
1946
1948
1949
20
10.3 1929-1952
90
35
82.75
80
30
70
60
25
58
56
50
40
41
30
15
26
23
20
20
47
44
10
5
10
5.5
0
1929
1932
1936
1938
1939
1942
1946
1948
1952
1929 23
1932 1935 1929
1940
1947
10.4 1929-1952
60
50
55 45
54.5
50
40
47
35
41
40
30
30
20
25
23
20
23
22
15
13
10
10
5
2.5
0
1929
1932
0
1936
1937
1940
1943
1946
1947
1952
1937
10.5 1937-1952
80
25
73
70
20
60
50
43
40
43
15
10
30
25
20
19
10
0
0
1937
1940
1946
1948
1952
10.6
300
250
60
257
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
55
50
10
36
9
0
1929
1932
1937
1942
20
7
1946
1949
1952
10.7
30
12
28
25
10
20
15
14
10
4
9
5
0
1
1940
0
1946
1948
1952
50 50
1900-1930
1934
1926 1929
1956
17% 1948 GEICO
1972 24 80 20%
1947 38
20
50 20 80
20 60
28 22 20 70
20 90
25
5060
70 80
90
5
68
1929 1929
1987
94
6D
40 1930 D
19 20 40
40
19 40
7
101 1884 31 30 20
1927
1933
70
100
1977-1994
30
CANSLIM
10
1969 1977
19771990 13
2000 140 100
13
29%1990
13
11
17
12
1970
1980
1989 1990
12
13
14
1819
15
30 1910
16
1980 5 10 80
90
1992
1993
800 200
200
17
31 22
55 3%
90
90
90
40
1982-1999
400
2001-2005
1906.1-1907.11
1906 1
90
1907 07 3
90 07 9 10
22 24
11
12 1908 60 80
10.71907 11 1
1906 1
120
07 3
100
80
60
1907 11
40
20
1907116
190796
190776
190756
190736
190716
1906116
190696
190676
190656
190636
190616
1905116
190596
190576
190556
190536
190516
1912.10-1914.12
1912 1913
1914
7 9
55 71
1915
1915
100
10.8
120
1912 10
100
14 7
80
60
14 12
40
20
1915105
191575
191545
191515
1914105
191475
191445
191415
1913105
191375
191345
191315
1912105
191275
191245
191215
1916.111917.12
17 4 16
1916 11
10.9
1916 11
140
120
100
80
60
1917 12
40
20
1919101
191971
191941
191911
1918101
191871
191841
191811
1917101
191771
191741
191711
1916101
191671
191641
191611
1915101
191571
191541
191511
1919.11-1921.8
1918
1919 11 1920 GDP 1919
1920 6%
1921 1921
20
10.10 20
140
120
100
80
1919 11
60
40
20
0
1921104
192174
192144
192114
1920104
192074
192044
192014
1919104
191974
191944
191914
1918104
191874
191844
191814
1921 8
100
80
60
40
20
0
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1929.07-1929.11
20 400 1929
1930 1929 3 30
8 380 9 10%10
10%10 24 11
23 380
228 40%
228 30 4 294
29%
10.121929
140
120
100
80
60
40
1929
20
1939
1938
1937
1936
1935
1934
1933
1932
1931
1930
1929
1928
1927
1926
1925
1924
1923
1922
1921
1920
10.13
400
350
300
250
1932
41
200
150
100
50
34-7-6
34-1-6
33-7-6
33-1-6
32-7-6
32-1-6
31-7-6
31-1-6
30-7-6
30-1-6
29-7-6
29-1-6
28-7-6
28-1-6
1930.4-1932.7
1930 4 1930 1929
3
30 4 32 7 1933
1935
1937.3-1938.4
1937
1936
1936
GNP 38 1939
1937 3 1938 4 103 157
52%
10.14 1938
250
200
1938 GNP
150
100
50
0
1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945
1937 3
191
200
150
100
1938 4
103
50
19396
19394
19392
193812
193810
19388
19386
19384
19382
193712
193710
19378
19376
19374
19372
193612
1938.11-1942.5
1939 9 1
9 1 15
135 154 1940
1940 45
24%1942 4
96
1943 7 145
10.16
1938 11
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1942 4
94
20
194211
19428
19425
19422
194111
19418
19415
19412
194011
19408
19405
19402
193911
19398
19395
19392
193811
19388
19385
1973.1-1974.10
405060 70
1972 1973
1973 1 1973 4
10
74 10 584 1975
10.1770
1200
1973
1
1000
800
10
600
400
74 10 12
75
200
1975101
197571
197541
197511
1974101
197471
197441
197411
1973101
197371
197341
197311
1972101
197271
197241
197211
1971101
197171
197141
197111
14
12
CPI
10
8
6
1973
4
2
0
19757
19779
19783
197510
19754
19751
197410
19747
19744
19741
197310
19737
19734
19731
197210
19727
19724
19721
197110
19717
19714
19711
10.19 1974
20
GDP
15
10
5
19789
19773
19769
19763
19759
19753
19749
19743
19739
19733
19729
19723
19719
-5
19713
-10
1987.8-1987.12
19851986
87 8
2709 12 1766 35% 10
10 20
0.75
10.20
1987
8
3000
2500
10
2000
1500
12
1766
1000
500
8712
8711
8710
879
878
877
876
875
874
873
872
871
10.2119871988
8
GDP
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
19901
19899
19895
19891
19889
19885
19881
19879
19875
19871
19869
19865
19861
19859
19855
19851
19849
2000.1-2001.9
90 2000 11722
2001 11301 2001
911
2002
10 7528
10.22
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
911
8000
02 10 7528
7000
200292
200252
200212
200192
200152
200112
200092
200052
200012
199992
199952
199912
199892
199852
199812
6000
10.23 GDP 02
8
GDP
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
200312
20039
20036
20033
200212
20029
20026
20023
200112
20019
20016
20013
200012
20009
20006
20003
199912
19999
19996
19993
19989
199812
-2
19986
-1
19983
1906.1-1907.11
1912.10-1914.12
22
26
50.5%
43.5%
1907.1-1907.11
1914.7-1914.12
10
5
45.30%
33.80%
1916.11-1917.12
13
38.4%
1916.11-1917.12
13
38.40%
1919.11-1921.8
1929.07-1929.11
1930.4-1932.7
21
3
26
45.1%
30.4%
84.7%
1919.11-1920.12
1929.07-1929.11
1930.4-1932.7
12
3
26
41.20%
30.40%
84.70%
1937.3-1938.4
13
46.1%
1937.8-1938.4
45.60%
1938.11-1942.5
42
40.0%
1940.4-1942.5
25
37.40%
1973.1-1974.10
1987.8-1987.12
21
3
43.1%
35.9%
1973.10-1974.10
1987.8-1987.12
11
3
41.90%
35.90%
2000.1-2002.10
33
35.8%
2001.5-2001.10
20
44.9%
21
43.1%
27.20%
11
10
42.0%
38.4%
2007 2007
20062007
8000 06 130%07
80%08 70% 8000
11.12008 8000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
200810
20087
20084
20081
200710
20077
20074
20071
200610
20067
20064
20061
200510
20057
20054
20051
200410
20047
20044
20041
NASDAQ
A NASDAQ
A
90
11.2 NASDAQ
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
20
05
-0
20 2
0
20 5-6
05
-1
20 0
06
20 2
06
20 -6
06
-1
20 0
07
20 2
07
20 -6
07
-1
20 0
08
20 2
08
20 -6
08
-1
20 0
09
20 2
09
20 -6
09
-1
20 0
10
20 2
10
-6
97 6
2008 8000
A 70
11.3
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
06.12 07.1
07.2
07.3
07.4
07.5
<120
07.6
07.7
07.8
>120
/ M2
8 15%
11.4/M2
18%
7000
16%
6000
14%
5000
12%
10%
4000
8%
3000
6%
2000
4%
1000
0%
No
vMa 01
rJu 02
lNo 02
vMa 02
rJu 03
lNo 03
vMa 03
rJu 04
lNo 04
vMa 04
rJu 05
lNo 05
vMa 05
rJu 06
lNo 06
vMa 06
rJu 07
lNo 07
v07
2%
90
2008 07
11.5
80
100%
70
80%
60
60%
50
40%
40
20%
30
0%
20
-20%
10
0
-40%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
PE
2005
2006
2007.9
50%
10% 50%
50% 10000
11.6
35000
7000
30000
6000
25000
5000
20000
4000
8 A
15000
3000
10000
2000
5000
1000
08
11.7 08
40
vix
spread
35
0.5
30
25
-0.5
20
-1
15
-1.5
10
-2
2009-5
2007-1
2008-3
2005-11
2004-9
2002-5
2003-7
2001-3
2000-1
1998-11
1996-7
1997-9
1995-5
1994-3
1991-11
1993-1
1990-9
-3
1989-7
1988-5
-2.5
1986-1
1987-3
70
11.8 19701978
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
73 75
1000
1978-7
1978-1
1977-7
1977-1
1976-7
1976-1
1975-7
1975-1
1974-7
1974-1
1973-7
1973-1
1972-7
1972-1
1971-7
1971-1
1970-7
1970-1
1
23
4
2007
6%
11.1
2009 8
4 16642402 1 24022037
2 20373478 3 16643478 N
4 0.382 2772
0.5
2553 5
11.9
A
A 2500 B
B 3200
2009
11.10
2 1664-3478 1 2
0.618 2350
3 3 1
11.11
C 61241664
A 16643478 B C 6
1664
2009
11.12
2006
2008
A
A
11.13
90
85
80
75
200812
200811
200810
200809
200808
200807
200806
200805
200804
200803
200802
200801
200712
200711
200710
70
11.14
130
120
110
100
90
80
11.15
200811
200805
200711
200705
200611
200605
200511
200505
200411
200405
200311
200305
200211
200205
200111
200105
200011
200005
199911
199905
199811
70
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
200807
200707
200607
200507
200407
200307
200207
200107
200007
199907
199807
199707
199607
199507
199407
199307
199207
199107
199007
198907
198807
198707
198607
2009
A
A
11.16
4
1
11.17A
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800
1814
1700
1664
1600
2009-2-9
2009-1-23
2009-1-15
2009-1-7
2008-12-26
2008-12-18
2008-12-10
2008-12-2
2008-11-24
2008-11-14
2008-11-6
2008-10-29
2008-10-21
2008-10-13
2008-9-26
2008-9-18
2008-9-9
2008-9-1
1500
0.382 K K
20 70
40 40
1996 2009 96
11.1840
2500
40
2000
1500
1000
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
Jul-99
Jan-99
Jul-98
Jan-98
Jul-97
Jan-97
Jul-96
Jan-96
500
06
18 6 34%
11.1906 40
40
7000
6000
4321
5000
4000
1145
3000
2000
1000
2281
11.240
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
1996-5-3
1996-6-7
1996-5-24
1997-9-26
-11%
72%
0.89
1.52
0.89
1.54
1998-1-16
1998-2-13
1998-4-3
1998-11-20
1998-1-16
1998-3-13
1998-8-14
1998-11-20
-2%
-6%
-6%
-1%
1.49
1.40
1.31
1.30
1.68
1.64
1.62
1.77
1999-6-4
2000-1-14
1999-12-17
2000-1-14
10%
-8%
1.44
1.32
1.96
1.95
2000-1-28
2002-7-5
2001-2-9
2002-9-20
28%
-8%
1.69
1.56
2.71
2.22
2003-4-18
2003-4-25
-6%
1.46
2.06
2003-5-23
2003-7-11
2003-6-27
2003-7-25
-4%
-2%
1.40
1.38
2.07
2.04
2003-12-19
2004-1-2
2003-12-19
2004-6-11
-2%
0%
1.35
1.35
2.00
2.04
2005-9-16
2005-12-30
2005-9-23
2008-2-1
-3%
285%
1.31
5.04
1.59
5.98
2009-3-27
2009-7-6
28%
6.47
4.32
40 5/20
40
50%50%
20 50
20
20
20
20
20
45 1998
30 30
11.20
30
..
1983 1984
20% 80
23 23
10
4 23 3 20 l00%
20% 3000-3500 4
3150
23
40 1
10
2B
10 30
WIND
A 2001
12.12010
30%
25%
25%
20%
15%
12%
10%
7%
5%
3%
1%
4% 4%
6%
4%
2%
2% 1%
5%
3%
4%
5% 5%
3%
3%
1% 1%
1%
0%
0%
12.22010
50%
46%
40%
30%
20%
10%
14%
6%
2% 2% 2%
0%
3%
1%
3%
4%
1% 0%
2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 2%
3%
0% 1%
3% 2%
0%
IT
0%
Black_Litterman
60%
12%-17%
12.3 60%
4%
1%
23%
22%
32%
40%
12%
29%
17%
20%
12.4
25%
20%
20%
20%
15%
12%
11%
10%
10%
5%
5%
5%
0%
300 1-2
3-4 5-6
12.5 1993
150%
100%
50%
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-50%
1993
0%
-100%
-150%
06 938%
12.1
2005 3
12
2004 12
14
2005 3
13
2004 12
15
2004 2
24
2004 4
10
2004 3
23
2004 4
12
2004 4
11
2004 12
15
55% 23% 9%
7%
125% 15% 18%
10%
61% 42% 19%
15%
33% 23% 7%
4%
38% 20% 4.6%
1.1%
40% 19% 6%
2.3%
77% 5% 8%
1.6%
27% 21% 5%
3.8%
55% 33% 5.8%
5%
40% 23% 4.8%
3.5%
PE
PB
42%
12.6
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
2009-3-31
2008-3-31
2008-9-26
2007-9-28
2006-9-29
2007-3-30
2006-3-31
2005-9-30
2004-9-30
2005-3-31
2004-3-31
2003-3-31
2003-9-30
2002-9-27
2001-06-30
1999-06-30
2000-06-30
1998-06-30
1996-06-30
1997-06-30
1995-06-30
08 11
4
12.7
2005 2
12.8
2009-01
2008-07
2008-01
07 1
08 11
4
2007-07
2005-01
2004-07
2004-01
2003-07
2003-01
2002-01
2001-07
2001-01
1999 6 10
54
2000-07
2000-01
60%
2002 2
2002-07
100%
2007-01
140%
2005-07
180%
2004 4
2006-07
2002 2
2008
07
2005 1
2006-01
220%
A
12.9
2002
2000 2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2000
2003 2007
12.10
13.10%
15.13%
10.43%
10.26%
10.02%
9.93%
9.73%
9.59%
9.08%
9.04%
8.91%
8.83%
8.80%
8.76%
8.75%
8.74%
8.65%
8.52%
8.50%
8.33%
8.24%
8.22%
7.21%
5.74%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
12.11
264.06%
234.98%
201.20%
201.00%
162.97%
160.92%
95.86%
93.48%
92.00%
83.06%
79.36%
50.24%
44.12%
31.43%
26.47%
22.58%
21.27%
20.58%
19.90%
18.70%
15.88%
14.49%
13.02%
12.75%
11.53%
10.29%
9.74%
9.11%
9.07%
8.38%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
BL
Fed
12.12Sam stoavl
2004 OECD
CPI 1970 2004
2
3
12.3:
CPI
12.4:
3.8%
4.7%
3.7%
3.3%
4.3%
4.2%
1.4%
2.9%
-0.4%
-2.4%
1.1%
-0.9%
-3.1%
-1.8%
-3.1%
-4.4%
-4.5%
-3.2%
-3.6%
-5.8%
13.3%
14.7%
11.0%
11.6%
8.9%
5.6%
0.5%
2.5%
2.1%
-4.5%
-4.6%
2.1%
1.6%
-4.7%
0.0%
-10.2%
-12.8%
-8.9%
-12.5%
6.4%
CPI
GICS
2007 Jeffrey Stangl Sector Rotation over
Bus iness-Cycles NBER 19482003 48
12.5NBER
1948.11
1949.1
1953.07
56
1953.07
1954.05
1957.08
49
1957.08
1960.04
1958.04
1961.02
1960.04
1969.12
32
116
1969.12
1973.11
1970.11
1975.03
1973.11
1980.01
47
74
1980.01
1981.07
1980.07
1982.11
1981.07
1990.07
18
108
1990.07
2001.03
1991.03
2001.11
2001.03
N.A.
128
N.A.
12.13NBER
12.6 NBER
16.50%
10.90%
15.10%
10.38%
12.57%
11.98%
11.74%
10.15%
-7.55%
48.80%
3.54%
-18.38%
48.40%
9.65%
1.50%
-21.55%
44.98%
9.59%
9.49%
0.45%
-22.48%
43.46%
0.43%
-25.48%
42.11%
10.45%
8.22%
0.16%
-25.55%
36.10%
10.18%
7.60%
0.15%
-31.35%
34.35%
8.75%
7.45%
-0.05%
-31.70%
33.77%
7.20%
7.08%
-0.55%
-31.80%
29.33%
5.65%
6.35%
-4.85%
-34.73%
22.75%
GDPCPI
90-91 01-02
90-91 89 9 90 11
1990 12 1991 12
1990
1991 12 1994 4 1990
1991
1992 1994
12.71990
1989.9-1990.11
1990.11-1991.12
1991.12-1994.4
45.24%
40.65%
12.36%
10.81%
52.81%
51.31%
8.44%
43.86%
-0.09%
-5.33%
41.93%
32.08%
31.21%
20.69%
500
-12.56%
500
29.44%
500
18.21%
-19.07%
28.01%
17.33%
-21.84%
-25.65%
15.80%
11.06%
7.58%
6.13%
-30.49%
-41.91%
7.51%
0.97%
0.90%
-18.61%
32.41%
99 11 01 5
GDP 01 6 02 7
02 7 2004
99 11 01 5
500
01 5 2002 7 911
2002
7 2004 3
12.82000
1999.11-2001.5
2001.5-2002.7
2002.7-2004.3
37.91%
41.93%
17.73%
-10.79%
21.70%
15.07%
9.64%
-19.42%
-20.02%
500
20.40%
19.34%
8.53%
-23.25%
17.80%
1.06%
-27.40%
-2.38%
-4.73%
500
-27.41%
-27.44%
14.62%
500
-6.48%
-43.59%
10.92%
-29.93%
-48.12%
3.62%
2.51%
17.70%
14.96%
-35.76%
-52.38%
2.37%
3
CPI
12.14
2002-01
2002-04
2002-07
2002-10
2003-01
2003-04
2003-07
2003-10
2004-01
2004-04
2004-07
2004-10
2005-01
2005-04
2005-07
2005-10
2006-01
2006-04
2006-07
2006-10
2007-01
2007-04
2007-07
2007-10
2008-01
2008-04
2008-07
2008-10
2009-01
2009-04
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
12.15 2002
105
104
103
102
CPI
8
7
6
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
-1
2002-02
2002-04
2002-06
2002-08
2002-10
2002-12
2003-02
2003-04
2003-06
2003-08
2003-10
2003-12
2004-02
2004-04
2004-06
2004-08
2004-10
2004-12
2005-02
2005-04
2005-06
2005-08
2005-10
2005-12
2006-02
2006-04
2006-06
2006-08
2006-10
2006-12
2007-02
2007-04
2007-06
2007-08
2007-10
2007-12
2008-02
2008-04
2008-06
2008-08
2008-10
2008-12
2009-02
2009-04
93
92
-2
2002 2008
2004
2004 9 2005 2
300 A
12.9
18
12
1.3852
1.0183
1.2426
43
30
13
4.5680
1.0360
1.5280
10
0.6372
0.9559
0.5823
16
0.5325
0.9614
0.6233
300
2002 2004
2006 2007
12.10
2.012
1.910
1.427
6.241
5.289
5.007
0.787
0.848
0.781
0.713
0.709
0.673
300
1.385
4.853
0.675
0.603
1.355
300
4.568
0.661
0.582
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4.504
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0.581
1.277
4.430
0.648
300
0.532
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4.303
300
0.637
0.526
1.104
3.818
0.613
0.514
3.605
0.635
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1.024
2.562
0.603
0.442
12.16A
20 70
1987-1993
18
9 S&P500 5
50 ( PE )
50
0.470
1968-1997
29.10% 1% 24.51%
16%
12.11(1979-1994 )
31.93%
13.20%
18.73%
29.67%
(Wiltshire)500
13.98%
15.69%
1996
1971 12 31 1991 12 31
20.14%
80%
//
1
P/B 1975 1 -1995 6
55% 61%
12.121975 1 -1995 6 1
1
23
42
37
14
24
10
55%
56%
61%
12
61%
14
55%
E/P B/P
1984 4 -1994 3 500
12.131984 4 -1994 3 1
1
E/P
B/P
6.85
+
+
5.34
5.15
500
+
3.96
3.49
+
+
3.05
2.76
2.02
1.64
1
Roll CAPM
2Scott Bauman
Robert Miller P/E P/E
P/E
Bauman Miller
12.14
1985-1995 %
1985
29.7
28.3
1.4
28.7
1986
1987
13.5
1.4
15.4
-0.4
-1.9
1.8
14.7
1.2
1988
1989
13.9
30.1
18.5
20.8
-4.6
9.3
15.8
25.3
1990
1991
-4.2
49.7
-8.6
30.9
4.4
18.8
-5.7
37.0
1992
7.5
12.1
-4.6
9.3
1993
1994
13.0
-1.7
14.1
-1.3
-1.1
-0.4
12.8
-1.5
1995
32.4
28.9
3.5
30.9
1975-1995
5 5 4
5 3
12.151975-1995 5 %
1975
40.2
24.0*
1979
1991
35.2
33.7
1980
1982
33.6
31.0
1975
39.5
37.5*
33.6
4.9*
1976
1985
37.5*
29.1*
3.0
19.1*
2.5*
23.7*
1983
1979
26.2*
25.5
7.5*
25.4
2Bernstein(1991)
4
Harrey(19891993)
12.16/
50%
50%
FTSE 350 50%
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NA
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NA
NA
(1)
50%
50%(2)
50%
(3)
12.18
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70%
79%
79%
81%
50%
62%
71%
65%
68%
82%
39%
44%
49%
29%
42%
34%
30%
34%
27%
79%
18%
49%
Pradhuman Bernstein(1994)
12.17
/RHS)
6000
2.5
5000
4000
1.5
3000
1
2000
0.5
1000
0
12.18
/RHS)
7000
1.4
6000
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5000
4000
0.8
3000
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2000
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12.19
/RHS)
8000
7000
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6000
5000
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3000
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1000
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12.20
/RHS)
5000
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1
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2500
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2000
1500
1000
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500
2009 9
6124
03
PE 4
10 30
12.21
2.1
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0.9
0.7
1999- 2000- 2001- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2003- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2008- 200912-30 08-21 04-10 11-20 07-12 02-27 10-13 05-28 12-31 08-17 04-04 11-14 06-29 02-05 09-16 05-04
12.22
5
PE/PE
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4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1999-12- 2001-01- 2002-01- 2003-01- 2004-01- 2005-01- 2006-01- 2007-02- 2008-02- 2009-0130
12
18
24
30
21
25
02
01
23
12.23
2.1
2
1.9
115
19
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10
1.7
1.6
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1027
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1.3
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1.1
2006-01-04
2006-08-18
2007-04-04
2007-11-14
2008-06-26
2009-02-10
2009-09-14
12.24
6000
2.1
1.9
5000
4000
1.7
1.5
1.3
3000
1.1
2000
1000
1999- 2000- 2001- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2003- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2008- 200912-30 08-21 04-10 11-20 07-12 02-27 10-13 05-28 12-31 08-17 04-04 11-14 06-29 02-05 09-16 05-04
12.25
0.9
0.7
2.1
100
1.9
80
1.7
60
1.5
40
1.3
20
1.1
0.9
(20)
0.7
199912-30
(40)
200011-06
200109-04
200207-12
200305-19
200403-12
200412-31
200511-02
200608-29
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200804-23
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1
23
2001-2005
33
08
20
2007
OEM ODM TMS
2007
2007 10
2008
13.1
80%
60%
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20%
0%
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2006 5
30%
2006 30% 2011
11 40%
30%
05 05
2750 /
3500 /
06
4000-5000 / 06 3040%
07
2006
2006
13.2
300%
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150%
100%
50%
0%
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2006
08
2007 000818
5 TDI
TDI
TDI MDI MDI
TDI TDI
TDI
2007 1 2008
6 2009 2 2010 5
2008 32 2008 19
2008 0.69 09 3.23
13.1
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2008
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2007
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TDI 2008
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90%08 8000
09-10 1 25%
10000-8000/8000 99
05 38%
09
1.25*1.38=1.72570%100% 08 204
09 380 05 6.97%
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4.33%
13.2002192
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
126.14
137.90
204.98
204.98
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380.18
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6.21%
6.97%
6.97%
09 20%
06-07 18%
09
09-10
13.3 /
1800
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600
0
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2630
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4248
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5.99%
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18.55% 18.29%
11.18%
20.83%
21.38%
2009
10
2009
0959 2
2004 11 4 12 4.1 100
4
2004
2004 9 2004 12 23
2004 200
16 2005
30
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2 2030 1015
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08 112 20
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17.88 10 2006 4.2
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07 6747 6237
07
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70%
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07
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1996
1998 8 2000 2002 1.2
2003 SARS 8 20042005 2006
1996 2006 11 24.74
11
19501970
70%
1980 2000 20
9 20 2
92
6%1999 9%20
13.7
1996 3 2006
15 30% 1998
1998
2
20
2007 10
5
13.8
15%
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DVD
2 1000
10
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1997
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50
20
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5% 6
15
2004
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1%
35%3%5%
06-07
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05 06 07
170 5
30
4
1000
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10 5200
40
10 1400 85 PS
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21
90
LOWES
XX
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2007 A 2007
85%
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2009
80-65 09
09
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2007
18699 09 656
09
2011
50% 11.4
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89
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95
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0
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13.11
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50
60%
40
40%
30
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20
10
0%
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0
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Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep87
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91
93
95
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99
01
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07
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1
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15
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10
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5%
3 3 / EPS
64% 3 PE 27 03-05 A
27 70% 15-30 24%
30
13.143 PE 70% 15-30
36%
25
40%
20
35%
30%
21%
20%
25%
15
20%
10
13%
20
15%
7%
12
10%
11
4%
7
0%
5%
2
0
10 [1015 [1520 [2027 [2730 [3050 50
0%
4 03
61% 20-100 48%62%
5-20 68%
13.15 03 61% 20-100
25
44%
50%
45%
20
40%
35%
15
30%
23
10
17%
13%
25%
13%
12%
5
7
0%
15%
9
20%
10%
7
5%
0%
PEG 1 30%PEG
1.5 30% 50
60
30%
20% 16
20
60 60%
10% 60
10
2000
P/E
19862000 2030% 9%
2006
10 3
25 2007 100
5 5
30 25%
ROE
15%
7 7
20% 1016%
20%
30%
02-07
1000
2000 500
10
50%
XX
10 08
20
A 6
13.4
600055
X
27.7
6 3000
002223
59.1
5 1
600079
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600587
23.1
10 5000
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6 3
300030
22.2
1.3 2500
2011
40
09
A
30%
14.89%
193 2011
12 8
ST
13.5
600673
18
1.6 2000
300015
60
5 8000
600706
ST
75
8000
000999
226
2000
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600105
43
33
1.6
1.1
000788
44
ST
15
09 10 2011 2011
1.5 11 40
09
18.25%2008
8800 11%
1500
1990 19% 2008 46%
2
1 50 300
800
25% 15%
180
95 100
30%
30-50%
13.6
10
11
12
002293
73
2.5
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43
1.1
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60%40%
1015 812
35
10
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06
06 5.92 45.96%
0.72 4862 29% 0.31
0.19 3.25 40.69%
2787 19.05%
13.7
06
05
05
%
7.99
9.14
7.16
04
03
02
7.48
8.26
6.11
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2.5
2.38
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2.46
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2.47
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3.34
3.04
2.3
2.72
2.68
2.78
40.69%
941
29%
53.36% 40.69%
13.8
06
05
05
04
03
02
1.03
1.52
0.78
1.74
1.58
1.86
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13.9
06
05
04
03
02
29
29
12
43
21
26
83
75
10
400 300 9
25-30
1000
1000
2001
2001 5
GDP
2006
9
6
3
30%
100
1990
2000
1990
100
100 1000
40 40 15
90 99
2535 50% 100%
100% 10
2000 6070
11
83.5
1982 4 1988 38
500
16.3 , 38
21.7 7
3.1 21.7 7
5.4 38
3.1
4 4
1
3 4 30
120
1 30
30 3 33
10% 30%
ROEP/BP/E
ROE
P/B
P/E
38%
1%
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50.1
88%
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2%
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2.22
44.8
-10%
0%
1.35
434
D ROE
ROE P/B
1
12
TYCO
TYCO
911
TYCO
80%
03-06 68
2
01-06 52%
05-08
13.16 A %
95%
WIND
EXCEL
3-5
48
IPO 40
Damodaran
:
1997 6 Andy Stephens
Artisan Mid-Cap Fund
12
20000
1.
2.
3.
4.
19.95 21.95
ISP
20000
25%
60%
20
90
Glass-Steagal
Act(Telecom Act
Las Vegas
15%
20%
20%40%
1%
60%70% 10
20 2%5%
10 30%
2001 (GDP
25%
1%
2 3
4550
60%70%
4%5%
4550
1520
1 50 1
75 80
5 1
50 1
60 1
70%
10%
1 1997 1998
2 90 3273
2001 4
87
1997
2006 2001 911 1995
1999
1998 2003 4 SARS
2009 4 H1N1 2005 9 1995 2
2008 5 2004 12
2001
1
2
345
6
7
8
1990-91
14.1
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Nov-91
Sep-91
Jul-91
May-91
Mar-91
Jan-91
Nov-90
Sep-90
Jul-90
May-90
Mar-90
Jan-90
Nov-89
Sep-89
Jul-89
May-89
Mar-89
Jan-89
14.2
440
500
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
14.3
02-Nov-91
02-Sep-91
02-Jul-91
02-May-91
02-Mar-91
02-Jan-91
02-Nov-90
02-Sep-90
02-Jul-90
02-May-90
02-Mar-90
02-Jan-90
280
100
98
90 8 2
96
91 4 11
94
92
90
88
91 1 16
86
84
82
16-Dec-91
16-Oct-91
16-Aug-91
16-Jun-91
16-Apr-91
16-Feb-91
16-Dec-90
16-Oct-90
16-Aug-90
16-Jun-90
16-Apr-90
80
14.4 10
10
10
91 4 11
9
9
8
90 8 2
8
7
91 1 16
7
16-Dec-91
16-Oct-91
16-Aug-91
16-Jun-91
16-Apr-91
16-Feb-91
16-Dec-90
16-Oct-90
16-Aug-90
16-Jun-90
16-Apr-90
1112
60
3%
14.5 3%
85
500
80
75
70
1963 11 22
65
22-May-64
22-Apr-64
22-Mar-64
22-Feb-64
22-Jan-64
22-Dec-63
22-Nov-63
22-Oct-63
22-Sep-63
22-Aug-63
22-Jul-63
22-Jun-63
22-May-63
60
8
100-150 400
911
911 9 11 -14
9 17 911
6 17 9 10
6.83%5 9 21 1423.19
9 10 1695.38 16.05%9 21 1387.06
10 7
2
14.6911
2400
2200
2000
910
1800
1600
1400
917
1200
1000
911
911
6.2% 11.4% 12.3%
911
30% 17 3%
2006 9 19
1991 8 19
2008
2
98 03 SARS08
600
100
2005 910
2000
CAC
8
14.7
1
2
UPS
1346
50% 100%
25%-40% 4000
14.8
1918 H1N1
4-5
4000 -5000 1 18
1918 H5N1
1918
14.91918 4000-5000
6000
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
2000
1000
200
100
1957
1968
0
1918
1346
1996 3 25
BSE
14.10 3 25
160
1996
140
120
14.11
Dec-96
Nov-96
Oct-96
Sep-96
Aug-96
Jul-96
Jun-96
May-96
Apr-96
Mar-96
Feb-96
Jan-96
100
30
25
20
Dec-96
Nov-96
Oct-96
Sep-96
Aug-96
Jul-96
Jun-96
May-96
Apr-96
Mar-96
Feb-96
Jan-96
15
03 SARS 2002 11 16
03 6 24
1918
14.122003 03
1800
()
1600
1400
1200
14.132003
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
1000
12
()
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
14.142003
20
()
18
16
14
12
10
8
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
1901
1997 H5N1
6 H5N1
H5N1
13-15
2003 H5N1
Tamiflu Relenza
14.15
05
300
250
200
150
100
50
Dec-08
Aug-08
Apr-08
Dec-07
Aug-07
Apr-07
Dec-06
Aug-06
Apr-06
Dec-05
Aug-05
Apr-05
Dec-04
Aug-04
Apr-04
Dec-03
Aug-03
Apr-03
09 4 26
20
H1N1
1982-1992 60 52 8 86.67%
41.75 399.71km 0.72 1986-1992
70 58 12 82.85%
48.35 692.10km 0.61
1989 4 26 7
7.3 0.3
30-40 10 2000
2007 2007 2008
2008 1 2008 2009
7.2 1975
1822-2008 32 32
21 5 6 2
1897-1998
711
1951
18 19691987 1962
18 19801998
1998 22
14.120
1913
1922
1915 1926
M 7
1913 7.01925 7.0
1932
1950
1969
1987
1941
1959
1978
1996
1933
1932 7.51941
7.01941 7.0
1951
1950 7.01957
1958
8.3
7.11974
1998
2015
200
70%
700
1997 10 30
1200
1000 1200
1001
14.16
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
SP500 97
14.17
20
14.18
14.18
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
200 14.19
14.19
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0
50
100
150
200
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
ESS
ESS
ESS
300 1688
17
1841
1636 1719-1720
501994
80
1999
116341637
16 1593
712
45 10
9 1630
1634
20 Switsers 30 29
1637 2
Semper Augustus 2 1%
Switsers 4 5% 90%
1637 4
100
217171720
18
1715
John Law
John Law
John Law
500 7 5000 8
10000 10 21000 31000 62
1719 John Law 1719 9
12 9 28 10 2 5000 10
90%John Law
15.11719 4 1720 10
10
9
8
7
6
5
Law appointed
controller general
Price pegged by
Banque royale
4
3
2
Farm indirect
of taxes
Acquisition of the
Mint.
1
0
31720
17
18
1711
10
1720 1 1 128 130
300 1720 4
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
May 19
Conversion Terms
Announced for
Annuitants
Apr 14
1st Money
Subscription
Mar 21
1st Passage of Act
Authorizing
Refunding
Apr 29
2nd Money Subscription
Aug 18
Bubble Act Enforced
Aug 24
4th Money Subscription
1720 6
8
8 24
9 175
12 124
9 1 227 10 14
135 345 145 130
40
41980-1982
80 1976 1977
1980
90
1980
10%20% 50%
2600
40
800%
550
140
34
1982
1982 1980 1/4
1982 8 20
98% 1/69
900
5
19231926
20
1923
1913 24 1922 80
1923 1924 150 1896
25 1925 12 5 19241925
1925
7 5 2000 2 5
504
1926
1926 9 18 400
6300 5000
1927 1928 1929 31 57
1930 30
5 1992
1988 1992
1993 19941995
1984
50
1985
20 90 1993
7%8%
-10%
19961997
2007
20
2007
2006
Ponzi
Ponzi 100
Ponzi 1920 8 Ponzi
1Ponzi
2
3
4 Ponzi
Ponzi
Ponzi
P0
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r g D1 r g
1D g
2D g
3D g
4D g
24
13
1
2
3
12
15.1
2 Q
Q=1
34
1929 2000
1 80
20 80
1983
1987 1-10 6.29
1988
250-350 230
1994
1994 12
19 15%
12 20 13% 3.47 1 3.925
1 21 15.3% 5 1
1995 3 9
8.001 56.63%
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71.6%1993 76.8%
1994 3 3 ZPC 1519.52
1994 2881.17 47.94%
500
2
1973-1974 20 60 70
1969-1971
1970
211.9 1971 11 285 1972 843.40
1987 10 16
108 420.8 11.12%10
19 508 22.6% 2
10 20 4 10
26
15 650 1120.7 2241.69
33.33%10 29
2204.52 10 1 3949.73 44.19%
300
31990
1990 80% 20 80
1986 1000 1986 10
80
17191720
1929
1990
1994 1000
10 4 338 10 27 156
53.85%
1994 MMM
MMM 100
500 400% MMM
1500 1 54 MMM
7 27 50%
1973 8 20
19731974
1992
4500
2500 44.45% 50%
1997
1719
1929
1987
90 1990 80 1990 9
92
1929
1922
1987
10 19
1990 1991
19971998
1996 230
237 1996 GDP 8.2%
5% 5%
1992
200 1995 659 1997 860 1997
1500 GDP 47% 48%
1997
62
80
20 80 90
20 80
1987
5000 19821986
3037 1986 1174 1987 19
150
60 1987
1987
20 90 7.2
20%
1990 400
1993 1550
1996 3360
1989
1994 500 860
1500
1992
71.64%1993 76.8%
19901993 436%1997
1994
180 1997 400
1997
10 1994
1997
6
1720
1929
1929
1987
1994 1997
2007 A 2007
2007
2008
15
10
30%
30 20
70
8 300
5
20
20
3 20
2000
16.1 20
20
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
100
20 10%
80 2000 10% 80
200 20
1 10% 200 2800
A
B
1
10%
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700
WIND
21
2010 5 4000
2800 2010 30
1.25 8.5 150
492 2.6
376
295
5.65.0 4.6
07
100
2
CPI CPI
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2007
10
2009
10
1
ZYX
INTERNET
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INTERNET INTERNET
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ZYX
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18
4
ZYX 1100
1100
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P/S ZYX
12 18
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492
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492
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10
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7
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150
1500
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2.50
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3.4%
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30000
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12
1.2
1.7
15
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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1989
60%
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6
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3
4
1
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2)
3)
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1)
2)
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3
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4
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9
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10
1)
2)
3)
4)
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1
2
3
4
5
2006 178 8
80%
2004
1000
1931
1936-
1938-
2008 8 12
2008 8 11
8
24002700
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1233
4567
17.1
17.1
3
39
1000
27002400
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2400
08
3
08 09 23
18%
16%
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2700
09 PE1820
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300 08PE15
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08PE 1820
08 1400
9000
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GDP09
500
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PMI
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78
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08
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3000
9
2500 0 510
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2008 8 19
A WIND
TOPVIEW
H CPI
H
30%
17.2
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
A
17.3
A
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60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0808
0807
0806
0805
0804
0803
0802
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0712
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0710
0709
0708
0707
0706
0705
0704
0703
0702
0701
NASDAQ
A
NASDAQ A
2005
17.4
160
(07.1-08.8)
140
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120
5300
4800
4300
3800
3300
100
2800
80
2300
1800
60
1300
800
06-10-20
06-12-26
07-3-1
07-5-3
07-7-6
07-9-7
07-11-8
08-1-14
08-3-18
08-5-20
08-7-23
08-9-23
08-11-24
09-1-23
09-3-26
09-5-27
09-7-28
09-9-28
09-11-27
10-1-28
10-3-31
10-6-1
10-8-2
10-10-1
10-12-2
11-2-2
40
220
AH
200
180
160
140
120
100
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
76%
1/4 2006
50
11.9 29
79 2005
21
2003
2006
2005 2008
2009
2009
17.6
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55%
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15%
-5% 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 31
03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03 06 09 12 03
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
1 55%
1 2 51%
5.1 20%
300
24002700
9
1200
2008 8 27
1
60
GDP
17.7
30
10
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2007-12
2004-12
2001-12
1998-12
1995-12
1992-12
1989-12
1986-12
1983-12
1980-12
1977-12
1974-12
1971-12
1968-12
1965-12
1962-12
1959-12
1956-12
1953-12
100
80
8 16
20.58%
34110126 5.00% 8 15 174445386
25.58%12
17.8 10 /
A 64%
17.2
29 7 343
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87.53%
90 1 37189
03 4 7832
13
78.9%
NASDAQ
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02 9 1172
32
70.25%
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500
60
17.3
6 0.5%
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08 PE 20
2008 9 2
17.4
17.5
CNBC
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20
2245
2006 2001
2001 2245
1000 0607
17.9
24002700
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http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-08-26/010216171081.shtml
08 8 6
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60%
20032005
1998
2001
08
-3375
17.1008
10000
--
8000
6000
4000
2000
2008-04
2008-01
2007-10
2007-07
2007-04
2007-01
2006-10
2006-07
2006-04
2006-01
2005-10
2005-07
2005-04
2005-01
2004-10
2004-07
2004-04
2004-01
2003-10
2003-07
2003-04
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2003-01
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-6000
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13.5%-14.5%
7
1 7 7
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7
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17.11:7
114.5
119.5
()
()
114
119
113.5
118.5
113
118
112.5
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117.5
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
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17.12 15.87%
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
20
05
1
20 Q
05
2
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05
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05
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06
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06
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07
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07
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17.13 CPI
7 CPI
PMI
24002700
2008 9 16 jiong
A 1929 A
A 4000
4000 3000 3000
A
V 50%100%
17.14 50%
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
07
0 7 00 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8 00 8
20
20
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
20
20
20
7
17.1597 V
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
97 97 97 98 98 98 99 99 99 00 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
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100% V
9 10
M1
17.168 M1 11.5% 9
1 7 4
222 22770
2003
2003
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2012 18%
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3
7000 1400
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7 16 9 9 17.6%
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2008 10 8
21
17.6
2008
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9 28
Pelosi
228 205
9 29
10 2
FDIC
Wachovia
Hypo , Bradford & Bingley
74 25
Washington Mutual
2008
10 3
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263 171
10 4
2008
Wells Fargo Wachovia
7000
7000
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never have to fire 7000
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1/4
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()(PMI)
LIBOR, TED Spread, LIBOR-OIS spread
17.17
1600000
1500000
1400000
1300000
1200000
1100000
1000000
900000
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Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
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2000
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2008 10 15
12
2001
70 10
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20012010
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4000
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370
LIBOR LIBOR
9
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2007 2009
2008
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()
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18
09
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2008 10 22
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17.7
GDP
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17.19GDP
2008 10 29
11
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10
6.8
VIX
LIBOR
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17.20VIX
100
vix
80
60
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0
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11
07
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
08
06
07
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
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1800
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26
2010 80100
3050
1/3
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2008 11 5
LIBOR
35 500
238
PE
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http://finance.jrj.com.cn/people/2008/10/2504182477449.shtml
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20052Q
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20051Q
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15.6% 05
17.23
(%)
25%
100%
80%
20%
60%
15%
40%
10%
20%
0%
5%
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20083Q
20082Q
20081Q
20074Q
20073Q
20072Q
20071Q
20064Q
20063Q
20062Q
20061Q
20054Q
20053Q
20052Q
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20051Q
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17.24
35%
30%
25%
20%
20083Q
20082Q
20081Q
20074Q
20073Q
20072Q
20071Q
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20062Q
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20054Q
20053Q
20052Q
20051Q
15%
17.25ROE 9.75% 07
20
ROE
18
ROA
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2008-09-30
2008-06-30
2008-03-31
2007-12-31
2007-09-30
2007-06-30
2007-03-31
2006-12-31
2006-09-30
2006-06-30
2006-03-31
2005-12-31
2005-09-30
2005-06-30
2005-03-31
2004-12-31
2004-09-30
2004-06-30
2004-03-31
2003-12-31
2003-09-30
2003-06-30
2003-03-31
2002-12-31
2002-09-30
2002-06-30
2002-03-31
08
09
1.5%
100
A 1400-1800
8%-50% 12x PE
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PE
09 +
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WTO
A ROE 7-8%
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08 09
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09
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10
3
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3
3
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17.26
2008 11 14
A
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10
17.27
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2008 11 20
10
6 4
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2001 1970
40
100
BETA
ALPHA
2500
BETA
2008 11 27
238
CPI
M2
08
4000
30002800
17.8
3
39
2500 2200 1600
3000
08
6%
09
09 8%
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2
A
500
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2010
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PE15
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09
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09
CRB
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08
A
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2 5060%
2008 12 4
30
17.28
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19
94
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95
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96
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97
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
20
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20
03
20
04
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05
20
06
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25
15
20
15
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17.30
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100
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70
60
50
40
30
20
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
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08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
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08
17.31
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
20
07
20
08
Q1
20
08
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08
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20
05
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06
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20
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06
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VC PE
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1
2000
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2000
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1000
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2004
2005
2006
2007
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800-900650-8001500-1700
800-1200
17.3209-20
2500
2007
2000
1500
1000
500
0
11 21
4
3G
2008 12 31
17.1108 A
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MXX
100
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SMSI
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DAX
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CAC40
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Sensex30
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AEX
ATX
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RTS
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17.332008 12 30
0
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/125716?sort=reverse&start=1&count=5#dtk-c
mtscnt
89%
01 82%
17.34
6
82%!!!
85.5%!!!
0
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85
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93
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A 1800
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17.362009
09
E-mailwyzc@sina.comwangcheng6461@gtjas.com
2010 7