ANZ RESEARCH

MEDIA RELEASE

For Release: 11:30am, Monday 5 December 2011

JOB ADVERTISEMENTS FLAT IN NOVEMBER

Highlights
The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers was unchanged in November compared to the previous month. Annual growth in total job advertisements slowed to 0.2% y/y. Newspaper job ads were 0.6% higher in November, while internet job advertising was broadly unchanged. Newspaper advertising is now 15.9% lower than a year ago, while internet advertising is 1.0% higher over the same period, in part reflecting the continuing trend towards advertising online. In trend terms, total job ads fell by 0.3% m/m in November and are now 0.5% lower than year-earlier levels. Job advertising began slowing in January 2011 and growth has been negative since April.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics and Property Research Ivan Colhoun said: The number of job advertisements was broadly unchanged in November compared to the previous month. While the pace of monthly falls in trend job advertisements have slowed since June, November was the eighth consecutive month of trend decline. The tentative slowdown in the pace of job advertising decline, if sustained, is an encouraging development as it would signal only mild upward pressure on the unemployment rate, as well as less pressure for Australian interest rates to fall much further. The negative trend in job advertisements points towards only modest employment gains for the Australian economy over coming months. Indeed, the current trend rate of employment growth is unlikely to be fast enough to absorb the forecast growth in the labour force over coming months. As a result, ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5% by mid-2012. The unemployment rate is then expected to fall at a modest pace, supported by strong mining and infrastructure investment. The geographic disparities in job advertising were again evident in the November data. The mining states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory continued to outperform the more populous states of New South Wales and Victoria (see table 3). As a result, employment growth disparities between states are expected to continue in the short-term. The Australian economy continues to experience large and conflicting cross currents. Mining and infrastructure investment is rising strongly at the same time as the global economic outlook has continued to deteriorate. The European sovereign debt crisis and weaker Chinese outlook are likely to increasingly weigh on local interest rate decisions, notwithstanding the strength in investment. Together with a more benign inflation outlook, ANZ on balance expects an insurance rate cut of 25bps by the RBA in

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December, though this is not as high a conviction call as the expectation of a rate cut in November. The ABS publishes November labour force data on Thursday. ANZ expects total employment to rise by 5,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 5.3%.

TOTAL JOB ADVERTISEMENTS The ANZ Job Advertisements Series shows the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet was broadly unchanged in November at an average of 181,461 advertisements per week (seasonally adjusted). Job advertising is now only 0.2% higher than a year earlier. In trend terms, total job advertisements declined by 0.3% m/m in November, recording their eighth consecutive monthly decline. Annual trend growth is now negative at -0.5% y/y, the first trend decline in annual terms since February 2010. NEWSPAPER JOB ADVERTISEMENTS The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers rose 0.6% in November, the first monthly rise in newspaper job advertising since February 2011. Newspaper job advertisements are now 15.9% lower than a year ago, in part reflecting the continuing shift towards internet advertising. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell by 0.8% m/m in November and is now 15.6% lower than this time last year. In November, newspaper job advertisements rose in the mining states of Queensland (+10.1% m/m), Western Australia (+4.5% m/m) and the Northern Territory (+2.2% m/m). Job advertisements also rose in Tasmania (+2.5% m/m). Job advertisements fell in the more populous states of New South Wales (-2.9% m/m) and Victoria (-1.7% m/m) as well as in South Australia (-4.6% m/m) and the ACT (-0.7% m/m). This suggests something of a return to the more geographical two-speed economy that was prevalent in the first phase of the commodities boom. INTERNET JOB ADVERTISEMENTS The number of internet job advertisements was broadly unchanged in November. Internet advertising is now 6.6% lower than the recent peak in April this year. While remaining 1.0% higher than a year ago, this is the slowest pace of annual growth since February 2010 (see Table 4). In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell 0.3% m/m, recording the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Annual trend growth has now slowed to 0.3% and is sitting well below its long-term average.

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For further comment contact:

For data enquiries contact:

For media and distribution enquiries contact: Ingrid Nugent Media Relations Advisor Tel: (03) 8654 3635 Email: Ingrid.Nugent@anz.com

Ivan Colhoun Head of Australian Economics and Property Research Tel: (02) 9227 1780 Email: Ivan.Colhoun@anz.com Next release: December 2011

Andrew McManus Economic Analyst Tel: (02) 9227 1742 Email: Andrew.McManus@anz.com

Expected release date: Monday 9 January 2012

Note for editors: For some of the newspapers surveyed, the ANZ Job Advertisements series counts the number of advertisement bookings. Each booking may contain multiple advertisements. In addition, the ANZ series counts classified advertisements only, and does not include display advertisements. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to draw any inference or correlation from the ANZ series regarding advertising volumes or revenues from employment advertising in the newspapers surveyed. The ANZ series is not intended to, and should not, be used to assess the financial performance of any of the newspapers included in it.

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ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS SERIES Change in newspaper job advertisements and employment

80 % change from year earlier ... (seasonally adjusted) 60 Employment (RHS) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Newspaper job ads, 6 months forward (LHS)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 % change from year earlier ... (seasonally adjusted) % of labour force

Job advertisements and unemployment rates

303 Index 1975 = 100 ... 253 203 153 103 53 3 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 ANZ Job Ads (LHS)

12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Unemployment Rate (RHS)

*Newspaper Job Ads till 2004. Total Job Ads from 2004.

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Change in newspaper, internet and total job advertisements

60 Internet % change from year earlier ... (seasonally adjusted) 40 Total 20 0

-20 Newspapers -40 -60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Australia - Total Job Ads (newspaper & internet) 300 250 '000 per week 200 Trend 150 100 50 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted

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State and Territory newspaper data

New South Wales 16,000 14,000 12,000 Ads per week 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Victoria 10,000 9,000 8,000 Ads per week 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

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Queensland 4,000 3,500 3,000 Ads per week 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Western Australia 5,000 4,500 4,000 Ads per week 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

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South Australia 2,000 1,800 1,600 Ads per week 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Tasmania 800 700 600 Ads per week 500 400 300 Seasonally Adjusted 200 100 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Trend

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ACT 1,200 1,000 Ads per week 800 600 400 200 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Northern Territory 600 500 Ads per week 400 300 200 Seasonally Adjusted 100 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Trend

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Table 1: Average total number of newspaper and internet job advertisements per week Australia
Original Seasonally adjusted (a) P.c. change over Number Number Month Year Number Trend estimate (b) P.c. change over Month Year

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011

210,092 262,423 192,465 146,414 145,134 145,010 131,211 109,220 158,611 162,488 154,780 169,618 171,101 174,510 185,495 194,390 195,076 193,266 175,905 153,022 188,451 193,363 186,146 183,549 187,743 188,891 196,989 200,875 198,360 194,036 132,385 136,527 141,752 133,852 161,649 163,828 161,745 168,107 171,997 173,256 175,734 176,898 178,204 181,174 185,446 190,763 192,818 195,192 194,820 182,034 188,946 187,690 186,466 182,472 181,380 181,461 -0.2 3.1 3.8 -5.6 20.8 1.3 -1.3 3.9 2.3 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.9 1.1 1.2 -0.2 -6.6 3.8 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1 -0.6 0.0

21.4 24.9 -26.7 -23.9 -42.3 -34.6 -28.2 -24.9 -2.1 8.3 15.0 21.7 32.6 36.5 35.9 33.3 34.6 32.7 30.8 42.5 19.3 19.1 20.4 8.3 9.9 8.3 6.1 3.2 1.8 0.2 132,245 135,839 140,681 146,476 152,856 159,111 164,491 168,590 171,391 173,262 174,978 177,142 179,568 182,750 186,394 189,608 191,651 192,273 191,566 189,969 188,049 186,323 184,873 183,653 182,482 181,868 1.7 2.7 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.1 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -41.6 -35.8 -28.0 -18.5 -7.5 4.2 15.3 24.4 30.8 34.1 35.6 36.2 35.8 34.5 32.5 29.4 25.4 20.8 16.5 12.7 9.7 7.5 5.7 3.7 1.6 -0.5

(a) Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details). (b) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. This smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, but is also results in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available.

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ANZ RESEARCH

Table 2: Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week Australia

Original

Seasonally adjusted (a) P.c. change over

Trend estimate (b) P.c. change over Number Month Year

Number 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 20,024 19,346 11,490 9,199 10,122 10,180 6,283 8,382 11,027 10,149 8,651 9,281 8,882 9,506 10,383 10,671 10,864 10,296 5,855 7,779 10,620 9,807 7,981 8,780 7,887 8,322 8,763 9,329 9,053 8,661

Number

Month

Year -6.5 -3.4 -40.6 -19.9

8,834 9,382 9,938 9,499 9,806 9,863 9,627 9,242 9,410 9,505 9,600 9,269 9,468 9,438 9,078 9,062 9,440 9,418 9,037 8,735 8,375 8,316 8,102 8,076 7,885 7,933

1.6 6.2 5.9 -4.4 3.2 0.6 -2.4 -4.0 1.8 1.0 1.0 -3.5 2.1 -0.3 -3.8 -0.2 4.2 -0.2 -4.0 -3.3 -4.1 -0.7 -2.6 -0.3 -2.4 0.6

-33.6 -19.2 -8.5 -4.9 14.6 21.8 17.9 11.7 13.1 16.3 12.0 6.6 7.2 0.6 -8.7 -4.6 -3.7 -4.5 -6.1 -5.5 -11.0 -12.5 -15.6 -12.9 -16.7 -15.9

9,031 9,322 9,566 9,713 9,747 9,700 9,608 9,519 9,468 9,449 9,434 9,410 9,370 9,327 9,302 9,289 9,254 9,161 8,999 8,782 8,538 8,317 8,149 8,032 7,938 7,876

3.2 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8

-31.3 -22.2 -11.5 -0.4 9.0 15.3 17.9 17.7 16.2 13.8 10.8 7.5 3.8 0.1 -2.8 -4.4 -5.1 -5.6 -6.3 -7.7 -9.8 -12.0 -13.6 -14.6 -15.3 -15.6

(a) Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details). (b) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. While this smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, it does result in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available.

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Table 3: Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week - States and Territories
Original Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over Number New South Wales Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Victoria Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Queensland Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 South Australia Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 653 698 749 774 739 706 729 731 704 694 670 639 -1.2 0.3 -3.7 -1.4 -3.4 -4.6 -6.8 -7.6 -6.4 -6.8 -13.4 -19.4 727 718 705 689 673 658 -0.7 -1.2 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -9.1 -6.6 -7.2 -9.6 -12.3 -14.5 681 721 777 907 924 917 723 715 695 746 778 856 -6.3 -1.1 -2.8 7.3 4.3 10.1 -6.1 -4.7 -12.8 -2.9 5.5 9.7 746 726 731 749 772 796 -4.1 -2.6 0.6 2.5 3.1 3.1 -3.5 -6.3 -4.9 -0.8 3.7 6.7 1,563 1,589 1,627 1,680 1,612 1,480 1615 1553 1508 1476 1397 1374 -5.5 -3.9 -2.9 -2.1 -5.3 -1.7 -17.8 -21.3 -23.2 -17.2 -26.1 -27.7 1655 1574 1506 1456 1413 1381 -4.8 -4.9 -4.3 -3.4 -2.9 -2.3 -14.7 -18.5 -21.2 -22.9 -24.4 -25.7 2,306 2,502 2,534 2672 2,584 2,411 2449 2439 2343 2287 2249 2185 -3.4 -0.4 -4.0 -2.4 -1.6 -2.9 -4.8 -8.4 -15.3 -12.1 -14.0 -15.4 2494 2420 2352 2295 2243 2207 -2.6 -2.9 -2.8 -2.4 -2.3 -1.6 -3.6 -7.6 -10.9 -12.9 -14.0 -14.5 Number Month Year Number Trend estimate (a) P.c. change over Month Year

The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The Sydney Morning Herald and The Daily Telegraph (NSW); The Age and The Herald-Sun (Victoria); The Courier-Mail (Queensland); and The Advertiser (South Australia).

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ANZ RESEARCH

Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week - States and Territories
Original Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over Number Western Australia Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Tasmania Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 ACT Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Northern Territory Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 328 333 449 385 367 359 320 326 397 337 327 335 -6.4 1.9 21.9 -15.3 -2.8 2.2 9.4 -6.2 11.0 -0.2 -0.2 4.3 340 343 345 345 344 340 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -2.3 2.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.1 447 493 502 522 450 444 480 493 468 449 413 411 -6.0 2.6 -5.0 -3.9 -8.0 -0.7 -15.1 -10.9 -8.9 -17.3 -26.9 -26.2 496 479 462 445 430 416 -2.6 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.4 -11.1 -13.3 -15.7 -17.9 -20.2 -22.5 361 367 398 369 433 427 397 375 368 330 378 388 -6.9 -5.3 -1.9 -10.4 14.6 2.5 -20.0 -16.4 -18.8 -32.4 -24.1 -19.6 395 381 371 365 362 364 -4.1 -3.6 -2.7 -1.6 -0.7 0.5 -16.9 -19.4 -21.5 -23.4 -24.6 -24.2 1548 1619 1728 2021 1943 1917 1662 1684 1620 1757 1671 1746 -2.5 1.3 -3.8 8.5 -4.9 4.5 -15.5 -14.9 -18.9 -12.2 -18.8 -13.8 1685 1675 1678 1688 1701 1715 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 -15.1 -16.0 -16.3 -16.4 -16.3 -15.5 Number Month Year Number Trend estimate (a) P.c. change over Month Year

The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The West Australian (Western Australia); The Mercury, The Examiner and The Advocate (Tasmania); The Canberra Times (Australian Capital Territory); and The NT News (Northern Territory).

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Table 4: Average number of internet job advertisements per week Australia

Original

Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over

Trend estimate (a) P.c. change over Number Month Year

Number 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Sep 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 190,068 243,092 181,273 137,215 135,362 134,831 124,929 100,837 147,584 152,339 146,129 160,337 162,219 165,003 175,112 183,720 184,212 182,970 170,050 145,243 177,832 183,556 178,165 174,769 179,857 180,569 188,226 191,545 189,307 185,375

Number

Month

Year 26.7 27.9 -25.4 -24.3

123,982 127,146 131,814 124,353 151,843 153,965 152,118 158,866 162,587 163,752 166,134 167,629 168,736 171,736 176,368 181,701 183,377 185,775 185,783 173,299 180,572 179,374 178,364 174,396 173,496 173,528

2.7 2.9 3.7 -5.7 22.1 1.4 -1.2 4.4 2.3 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.8 2.7 3.0 0.9 1.3 0.0 -6.7 4.2 -0.7 -0.6 -2.2 -0.5 0.0

-45.4 -35.5 -29.3 -26.1 -3.0 7.6 14.8 22.4 34.0 37.9 37.6 35.2 36.6 35.1 33.8 46.1 20.8 20.7 22.1 9.1 11.1 9.5 7.4 4.0 2.8 1.0

121,290 126,517 131,115 136,763 143,109 149,411 154,883 159,071 161,923 163,813 165,544 167,732 170,198 173,423 177,092 180,319 182,397 183,112 182,567 181,187 179,511 178,007 176,724 175,622 174,544 173,991

0.6 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.4 3.7 2.7 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3

-46.3 -36.6 -29.0 -19.5 -8.4 3.6 15.1 24.8 31.8 35.5 37.3 38.3 38.1 37.1 35.1 31.8 27.5 22.6 17.9 13.9 10.9 8.7 6.8 4.7 2.6 0.3

The internet series counts the average number of advertisements carried by each of the sites contributing to the series on the same day of each week in the month indicated. The day (which is not necessarily the same for each site) is selected by the site operator as broadly representative of its activity levels. The above data are based on information provided by the operators of the following sites: seek.com.au; and the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) Australian JobSearch site, jobsearch.gov.au.

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TECHNICAL APPENDIX

The ANZ Job Advertisements Series now uses a concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology to derive the seasonal adjustment factors. This means that data from the current month are used in estimating seasonal factors for the current and previous months. Concurrent seasonal adjustment replaced the forward factor methodology from the June 2010 reference month. The concurrent adjustment methodology uses the most recent data every month whereas the forward factor approach only used it once a year. Under concurrent adjustment, the seasonal factors will also be more responsive to underlying dynamic changes than forward factors. Concurrent adjustment can result in revisions to the seasonal factors each month to estimates for earlier periods. However, in most instances, the only noticeable revisions will be to the seasonal adjustment factors for the current month, the previous month and the same month a year ago. The concurrent seasonal adjustment brings the ANZ Job Advertisements Series in line with the methodology used by the ABS for its monthly employment data.

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IMPORTANT NOTICE
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