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207-871-8622
Table of Contents
I. Background.. II. Methodology... III. Poll Results Economic Issues..... Maine Public Policy Questions.. National Public Policy Questions................ Technology and Lifestyle Questions........... IV. Key Demographics... 7 14 28 37 42 3 4
Pan Atlantic SMS Group Report to Saint Josephs College of Maine; October 2011
I. Background
3
Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and marketing consulting firm which is currently in its 26th year of successful operation. This Omnibus Poll is the 49th poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public policy, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify the source of information. With the exception of one question, which was commissioned by First Wind Corporation, all other questions reported on herein are non-proprietary and were not commissioned by any party other than Pan Atlantic SMS Group. For further information, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.
II. Methodology
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The 49th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted between November 9th and November 22nd, 2011. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the interest of the public. A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine residents was interviewed by telephone. Each of Maines two Congressional Districts are represented by approximately half of the sample. The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:
Are ages 18 and older Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm Are registered to vote in Maine
This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantics team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used.
II. Methodology
5
It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals. The sample was stratified statewide based on the 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the + 4.9 percent margin of error. The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age and gender. The margins of error for specific subsamples are higher than the + 4.9 percent margin of error for the entire sample. Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of interviewees opinions at a singular point in time.
Economic Issues
STATE OF THE STATE In general, do you think that the State of Maine is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
8 70% 60% 50% [Options were rotated; N=400]
43.5%
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 38.5%
18.0%
Feb. '05 Right Direction 35.0% Wrong Direction 48.0% Don't know 17.0%
Thirty nine percent of Mainers (38.5%) think that the state of Maine is headed in the RIGHT direction, an increase of 9.1 percentage points since the May 2011 Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus PollTM was conducted.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
STATE OF THE STATE In general, do you think that the State of Maine is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
9 [Options were rotated; N=400]
0%
CD1
-25%
CD2
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Registered Republican respondents are the most likely segment to feel that Maine is headed in the right direction (56.8%). This result mirrors results obtained in May 2011 (Republican respondents indicating Maine is heading in the right direction 54.8%). Residents of CD2 are more likely to feel that Maine is headed in the right direction.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
ECONOMIC RESURGENCE Do you think that the Maine economy has come out of or when do you think it will come out of the economic recession?
10 [Options were read and rotated; N=400]
Economic Resurgence
Beyond 2012 75.3% 30% Second half of 2012 10.0% 20% 10% First half of 2012 2.8% 0%
Percent of Respondents who Believe Maine Will Come out of the Economic Recession in 2012
18.2% 12.8%
Nov. 2011
Other
1.5%
Don't know 0%
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Three in four Mainers (75.3%) believe that Maine will come out of the economic recession beyond 2012. The percent of respondents who believe that Maine will come out of the economic recession in 2012 has decreased when compared to results obtained six months ago (18.2% in May 2011 vs. 12.8% in November 2011). Very few respondents believe that Maine is already out of the recession (1.0%).
Compared to November 2010 (one year ago), would you say that the overall status of the United States economy is better, about the same, or worse?
11 [Options were read and rotated; N=400]
Percent of Respondents Who Believe that the United States Economy is Better, About the Same, or Worse Compared to November 2010
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.5% 0% Better About the same Worse Don't know 15.0% 39.8% 44.8%
Forty five percent of respondents (44.8%) believe that compared to one year ago, the overall status of the U.S. economy is worse. Conversely, 15.0% indicated that they believe the U.S. economy has improved over the past year, while forty percent (39.8%) reported that it is about the same.
ECONOMIC RESURGENCE
Compared to November 2010 (one year ago), would you say that the overall status of the United States economy is better, about the same, or worse?
12 [Options were rotated; N=400]
47.0%
47.2%
48.1%
50.0%
Average: 44.8%
Respondents from Congressional District 2, registered Republicans and Independents, and those over the age of 35 are the most likely to report that the status of the U.S. economy is WORSE compared to November 2010.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
HOLIDAY SPENDING Thinking about the upcoming holiday season, do you plan to spend more, less or about the same as you did last year on holiday gifts?
13 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Less, 42.0%
More, 5.0%
More than ninety percent of respondents (93.8%) reported that they plan on spending about the same amount (51.8%) or less (42.0%) on holiday gifts this year as they did last year. A small percent of respondents (5.0%) indicated that they plan to spend more on gifts this holiday season than they did in the previous year.
14
73.8%
21.8%
Very , 8.0% Somewhat , 13.8%
Somewhat , 45.3%
4.6%
Close to three in four respondents (73.8%) indicated that they have a somewhat (45.3%) or very (28.5%) favorable opinion of Senator Snowe. Conversely, one-fifth of respondents (21.8%) said that they have a somewhat (13.8%) or very (8.0%) unfavorable opinion of Senator Snowe.
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of MAINE SENATOR OLYMPIA SNOWE.
16 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Republican 4.5%
12.1%
41.7%
37.1%
4.5%
Independent
6.6%
12.3%
57.5%
22.6%
0.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Very unfavorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable
Republicans and Independents have a more favorable opinion of Senator Olympia Snowe than registered Democrats do (favorable overall Independents: 80.2%, Republicans: 78.8% vs. Democrats: 66.7%).
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS In November 2012, Senator Olympia Snowe will be up for re-election. Do you think that she deserves re-election to the U.S. Senate?
17 [Options were rotated; N=400]
No, 28.0%
50%
25%
0%
Close to six in ten respondents (59.3%) indicated that they think Senator Snowe deserves re-election to the U.S. Senate in the November 2012 elections, while about three in ten think that Senator Snowe does not deserve re-election (28.0%). Respondents in Congressional District 2; Republicans and Independents; and those 18-34 years of age are more likely to think that Senator Snowe deserves re-election than their counterparts. However, even the segments that are less likely to think Senator Snowe deserves re-election (respondents in Congressional District 1, Democrats, and those aged 35 and older) had over 56% of respondents feeling that Senator Snowe deserves re-election (56.7%, 56.5%, and 57.9% respectively).
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43.5%
Very , 15.5%
43.3%
Very , 11.0%
35.6%
35.6%
21.0%
Very , 5.5% Somewhat , 15.5% Unfavorable overall Somewhat , 28.0%
21.2%
Very , 7.2% Somewhat , 14.0% Unfavorable overall Favorable overall Don't know / No response / Refused Somewhat , 32.3%
Favorable overall
Forty four percent of responding Maine voters have an overall favorable opinion of 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler (43.5%), while 21.0% have an unfavorable opinion. More than a third (35.6%) do not know or refused to answer the question. Favorability levels of Eliot Cutler obtained in this poll are almost exactly the same as those garnered in October 2010 when this question was last polled.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
Republican
9.8%
25.0%
20.5%
9.1%
35.6%
30.2%
16.0%
42.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Very unfavorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable
Democrats and Independents have a more favorable opinion of Gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler than Republicans (favorable overall Democrats: 55.8%, Independents: 46.2% vs. Republicans: 29.5%). Of note, a large percentage of voters dont know their opinion of Eliot Cutler.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of GOVERNOR PAUL LEPAGE.
20 [Options were rotated; N=400]
39.0%
Very , 39.4% Very , 14.5%
5.0%
Somewhat 16.6%
Somewhat 21.2%
11.2%
Unfavorable overall
Favorable overall
More than four in ten respondents (42.5%) have a very (17.5%) or somewhat (25.0%) favorable opinion of Governor LePage. More than half of respondents (52.0%) have a very (36.0%) or somewhat (16.0%) unfavorable opinion of the Governor. Governor LePages favorability level has increased since this question was polled: up from 41.4% in October 2010 and 39.0% in May 2011 to 42.5% in November 2011.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of GOVERNOR PAUL LEPAGE.
21 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Democrat
59.4%
16.7%
12.3%
5.1% 6.5%
Republican
10.6%
10.6%
38.6%
36.4%
3.8%
Independent
37.7%
23.6%
24.5%
11.3%
2.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Very unfavorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable
Democrats and Independents have a less favorable opinion of Governor Paul LePage than Republicans and vice versa on favorable (unfavorable overall Democrats: 76.1%, Independents: 61.3% vs. Republicans: 21.2%; favorable overall Democrats: 17.4%, Independents: 35.8% vs. Republicans: 75.0%).
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of GOVERNOR PAUL LEPAGE.
22 [Options were rotated; N=400]
19.8%
14.7% 20.8%
70%
80%
90%
Somewhat unfavorable
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable
Respondents in Congressional District 2 have a more favorable opinion of Governor LePage than those in Congressional District 1 (favorable overall Congressional District 1: 31.4% vs. Congressional District 2: 52.9%). Male respondents have a more favorable opinion of Governor LePage than female respondents (favorable overall Males: 51.9% vs. Females: 34.6%).
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
23 [Options were rotated; N=400]
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING, Fall 2011 Poll: Rating of Job Performance of Governor LePage
48% 43%
9%
Disapprove overall
Approve overall
More than four in ten respondents (43.3%) strongly (18.5%) or somewhat (24.8%) approve of Governor LePages job performance. Conversely, more than half of respondents (50.3%) strongly (34.8%) or somewhat (15.5%) disapprove of his job performance. Governor LePages job performance rating in this poll (43%) is similar to that recorded in a recently conducted poll by Public Policy Polling of North Carolina. In that poll, 43% approved and 48% disapproved of his job performance, and 9% did not know.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
24 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Republican
7.6%
14.4%
33.3%
37.9%
6.8%
Independent 0% 10%
4.7% 100%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Eighteen percent of responding Democrats (18.1%) indicated that they somewhat or strongly approve of Governor LePages performance to date. In contrast, 71.2% of Republicans surveyed reported that they somewhat or strongly approve of Governor LePages job performance. Forty percent of Independent voters (39.6%) somewhat or strongly approve of Governor LePages job performance.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
25 [Options were rotated; N=401]
19.4%
16.1% 21.3%
70%
80%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Males (52.5%) and respondents residing in Congressional District 2 (52.4%) are more likely than their female and CD 1 counterparts to strongly or somewhat approve of Governor LePages job performance (females : 35.5%, Congressional District 1 : 33.5%).
Maines Best Pollster 2008
MAINE PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS If you could vote in last falls gubernatorial election over again, who would you vote for? [Candidates names were provided]
26 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Candidate that Respondents Would Vote For If They Could Vote in Last Falls Gubernatorial Election Over Again
33.3%
14.5% 12.3%
4.0% 0.3% Eliot Cutler Paul LePage Libby Mitchell Shawn Moody Kevin Scott Don't Know
About a third of respondents (35.8%) would vote for Eliot Cutler (I) if they could vote (again) in last falls gubernatorial election over again, followed very closely by Paul LePage (R) (33.3%). Fifteen percent (14.5%) would vote for Libby Mitchell (D), while 4.0% would vote for Shawn Moody (I). Given the polls margin of error, this represents a dead heat. Twelve percent (12.3%) of respondents did not know who they would vote for.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
WIND TURBINES IN MAINE Overall, do you favor or oppose having wind turbines in Maine so that wind power can be used to generate electricity? Is that strongly or somewhat [favor/ oppose]?*
27 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Eighty six percent of respondents (86.3%) strongly (57.3%) or somewhat (29.0%) favor having wind turbines in Maine so that wind power can be used to generate electricity. One in ten respondents (10.0%) somewhat (4.0%) or strongly (6.0%) oppose having wind turbines in Maine. This high level of public support for wind power is consistent with data recorded in other Pan Atlantic SMS Group polls on this issue over the past 3-4 years. Democratic and Independent respondents are more likely to favor having wind turbines in Maine than Republican respondents (92.8% of Democratic respondents and 90.6% of Independent respondents strongly or somewhat favor having wind turbines in Maine, vs. 78.0% of Republican respondents).
28
NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
29 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job Nov. 2011
35% 29.8% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove Somewhat approve Strongly approve Dont know/ No response 2.8% 18.8% 17.0% 31.8%
Respondents were split evenly between those who somewhat or strongly approve of the way President Obama is handling his job (48.5%) and those who somewhat or strongly disapprove of how he is doing his job (48.8%). The Presidents approval numbers in Maine are approximately 5 percentage points higher than data recorded in recent national polls.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
30 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job* Oct. 2009, and Nov. 2011
57.9% 48.8% 37.9% 48.5%
Fall 2009
Fall 2011
Approve
Disapprove
The percentage of respondents approving of how President Obama is handling his job/ his presidency has decreased by 9.1 percentage points since October 2009 (from 57.9% to 48.8%).
*Note: In October 2009, respondents were asked the following: President Barack Obama has been in office for approximately 9 months. Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obamas presidency thus far? The response options, approve and disapprove, were rotated. The November 2011 question wording is somewhat different, and the response options were strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, and strongly disapprove. The November 2011 percentages shown in the chart for approve and disapprove are the sum of the percentages for strongly and somewhat approve and strongly and somewhat disapprove.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
31 [Scale was rotated; N=400]
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job, by Political Party Affiliation
Democrat 10.1% 14.5% 41.3% 31.9% 2.2%
Republican
55.3%
25.8%
11.4%
6.8%
Independent 0%
11.3% 90%
3.8% 100%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
About three quarters of responding Democrats (73.2%) indicated that they somewhat or strongly approve of how President Obama is handling his job. In contrast, only 18.2% of Republicans surveyed reported that they somewhat or strongly approve of President Obamas performance. Over half of Independent respondents (56.6%) somewhat or strongly approve of the way President Obama is handling his job.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
32 [Options were rotated; N=400]
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job, by Congressional District and Gender
Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2 28.4% 31.1% 16.0% 21.4% 37.1% 26.7% 17.0% 17.0% 1.5% 3.9%
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Respondents in Congressional District 1 are more likely to approve of the way President Obama is handling his job than respondents in Congressional District 2 (approve overall Congressional District 1: 54.1% vs. Congressional District 2: 43.7%). Female respondents are more likely to approve of how President Obama is doing his job than male respondents (favorable overall Females: 56.7% vs. Males: 39.3%).
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29.0%
26.9%
18.3%
2.5%
Favorable, overall Unfavorable, overall Never heard of No opinion/ this movement Don't know/ No response
Approve
Disapprove
A little less than half of respondents (44.8%) have an overall favorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, while about a third (34.5%) have an unfavorable opinion overall. Roughly a fifth of respondents (18.3%) do not know/did not voice an opinion regarding the movement. Of those who are aware of the Occupy Wall Street movement (N=390), 44.1% approve and 29.0% disapprove of how it is handling protests in Maine. A further 26.9% do not know.
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NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement?
34 [Scale was rotated; N=400]
Opinion of Occupy Wall Street Movement, by Political Party Affiliation and Congressional District
Democrat Republican Independent 22.7% 45.3% 67.4% 58.3% 30.2% 2.8% 18.1% 2.2% 12.3% 2.3% 16.7% 21.7%
30.9%
1.5% 3.4%
70%
80%
Unfavorable, overall
Almost seven in ten responding Democrats (67.4%) indicated that they have a favorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement. In contrast, only about a fifth of Republican respondents (22.7%) reported that they approve of the movement. A little less than half of Independents (45.3%) have a favorable opinion of the movement. About half of respondents in Congressional District 1 (51.0%) have a favorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement vs. 38.8% of respondents in Congressional District 2.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement?
35 [Options were rotated; N=400]
6.0% 2.7%
80%
90%
100%
Unfavorable, overall
18-34 year old respondents were the most likely to rate the Occupy Wall Street movement favorably (54.9% did so vs. 40.4% of 35 to 54 year olds and 44.6% of those 55 years or older). Those with incomes of $75,000 or more are the most likely to have an unfavorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement (42.6% vs. 30.1% for those with incomes between $35,000 and $75,000 and 31.0% for those with incomes below $35,000).
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36
TECHNOLOGY AND LIFESTYLE QUESTIONS How much time, if at all, do you personally spend using the internet?
37 [Options were rotated; N=400]
About a third of respondents (30.8%) spend 1-3 hours per day using the internet. Another 18.5% use the internet for up to one hour per day, and 20.5% use the internet a few hours per week. Less than a fifth of respondents (17.8%) use the internet for more than 3 hours a day. Thirteen percent (12.5%) of respondents do not use the internet.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
TECHNOLOGY AND LIFESTYLE QUESTIONS How much time, if at all, do you personally spend using the internet?
38 [Options were rotated; N=400]
22.6%
70%
80%
90%
Time spent using the internet decreases with age. Over seven in ten (70.7%) 18-34 year old respondents use the internet one or more hours a day. In contrast, 33.8% of respondents ages 55 and older use the internet 1 or more hours a day, and roughly three in ten respondents (28.5%) in this age group do not use the internet at all. Time spent using the internet increases with income. Over half of respondents with household incomes of $75,000 or more (52.8%) use the internet for one or more hours a day, vs. 38.1% for those with household incomes below $35,000. Almost three in ten respondents with household incomes under $35,000 do not use the internet at all.
Maines Best Pollster 2008
TECHNOLOGY AND LIFESTYLE QUESTIONS How much time, if at all, do you personally spend using the internet?
39 [Options were rotated; N=400]
15.5%
15.5%
20%
30%
90%
100%
The percentage of females and males using the internet one or more hours a day is about the same (49.3% vs. 47.5%). However, more female respondents use the internet up to one hour per day (23.5% vs. 12.6% for males), while more male respondents use the internet a few hours per week (26.2% vs. 15.7% for females). Respondents in Congressional District 1 use the internet more than respondents in Congressional District 2 on average, with 58.2% of those in Congressional District 1 using the internet 1 or more hours per day vs. 39.3% in Congressional District 2. About a fifth of respondents in Congressional District 2 (17.0%) do not use the internet, vs. 7.7% for respondents in Congressional District 1.
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Should website advertisers on the internet be allowed to collect data that shows what websites you have seen in order to match advertisements to your specific interests?
Yes, 28.8%
No, 62.3%
Almost two thirds of respondents(62.3%) do not believe that website advertisers should be able to collect data on which websites they have seen in order to match advertisements to their specific interests. About three in ten respondents (28.8%) think that website advertisers should be allowed to do this.
% 54% 46%
INCOME LEVELS Under $35,000 $35,000 to $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 + Dont know/ Refused
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POLITICAL AFFILIATION Democrats Republicans Independents / Unenrolled Other Dont know/ Refused