Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Groupon
Numbers from your base year below:
Revenues
$
1,290.00
Operating income or EBIT
$
(554.50)
Book value of equity
$
(14.70)
Book value of debt
$
Cash
$
722.70
Number of shares outstanding =
696.00
Current stock price =
$
16.00
Tax rate =
35.00%
The value drivers below:
Compounded annual revenue growth rate over next 5 years 50.00%
=
Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in year 23.00%
10) =
Sales to capital ratio (for computing reinvestment) =
2.00
Market numbers
Riskfree rate
2.05%
Initial cost of capital =
15.00%
Other inputs
Number of options outstanding =
18.40
Average strike price =
$1.11
Average maturity =
5.00
Standard deviation on stock price =
44.00%
S1 Filing: Page 5
S1 Filing: Page 5
Not available (My estimate. Employee options usually have 8-10 ye
S1 Filing: Page 69
Default assumptions
I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption =
Yes
Mature companies generally see their risk levels approach the aver
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 =
8%
Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have higher risk
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10
Do you want to override this assumption =
Yes
Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns that exceed th
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 10
10%
But there are significant exceptions among companies with long-las
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure in the next 10 years
Do you want to override this assumption =
No
Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they have trouble
If yes, enter the probability of failure in the next 10 years =
20%
Tough to estimate but a key input.
I will asssume that you have no NOL coming into the valuation
Do you want to override this assumption =
Yes
Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into year 1 $800.00
An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even after you start ma
Groupon has operating lease commitments, but the numbers are small. If they had been larger, I would have capitalized them and brought t
his spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
gainst the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
Page 43 (1,118 -141+313)
Page 43 (-218.4-(-84.2)+(-420.3)
anies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash (I am being optimistic and assuming that Groupon has no chance of failure)
ome from taxes, even after you start making money (and Groupon has NOLs)
Revenues
2010 10K
First 9 months- 2010 First 9 months - 2011 Trailing 12 month value
$312,941
$140,717
$1,118,266
$1,290,490
Cost of revenue
Marketing
SG&A
Customer acquisition costs
$42,896
$290,569
$196,637
$203,183
$17,705
$89,642
$79,741
$37,844
$162,614
$613,173
$565,686
-$4,793
$187,805
$814,100
$682,582
$160,546
Operating income
-$420,344
-$84,215
-$218,414
-$554,543
Net income
-$389,640
-$76,410
-$214,481
-$527,711
Base year
Revenue growth rate
Revenues
EBIT (Operating) margin
EBIT (Operating income)
EBIT(1-t)
- Reinvestment
FCFF
NOL
$1,290.00 $
-42.98%
$ (554.50) $
$ (554.50) $
$
$
$ 800.00 $
WACC
Discount factor
PV(FCFF)
1
50.00%
1,935.00
-36.39%
(704.07)
(704.07)
322.50
(1,026.57)
1,504.07
$
$
$
$
$
$
2
50.00%
2,902.50
-29.79%
(864.59)
(864.59)
483.75
(1,348.34)
2,368.66
$
$
$
$
$
$
3
50.00%
4,353.75
-23.19%
(1,009.60)
(1,009.60)
725.63
(1,735.22)
3,378.25
$
$
$
$
$
$
4
50.00%
6,530.63
-16.59%
(1,083.48)
(1,083.48)
1,088.44
(2,171.91)
4,461.73
$
$
$
$
$
$
5
50.00%
9,795.94
-9.99%
(978.83)
(978.83)
1,632.66
(2,611.49)
5,440.56
15.00%
15.00%
15.00%
15.00%
15.00%
0.870
0.756
0.658
0.572
0.497
(892.67) $ (1,019.53) $ (1,140.94) $ (1,241.80) $ (1,298.37)
(737) $
75.20%
2.00
2.00
2.00
(415) $
69 $
794 $
169.70%
-1255.75%
-127.08%
2.00
1,883 $
-57.54%
2.00
3,516
-27.84%
$
$
$
$
$
$
6
40.41%
13,754.48
-3.39%
(466.80)
(466.80)
1,979.27
(2,446.07)
5,907.36
$
$
$
$
$
$
7
30.82%
17,993.61
3.20%
576.63
576.63
2,119.56
(1,542.93)
5,330.73
$
$
$
$
$
$
8
21.23%
21,813.65
9.80%
2,138.41
2,138.41
1,910.02
228.39
3,192.32
$
$
$
$
$
$
9
11.64%
24,352.76
16.40%
3,994.23
3,713.56
1,269.55
2,444.01
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
10
2.05%
24,851.99
23.00%
5,715.96
3,715.37
249.62
3,465.76
-
Terminal year
2.05%
$ 25,361.45
23.00%
$ 5,833.13
$ 3,791.54
$
777.27
$ 3,014.27
$
8.00%
13.60%
0.438
$ (1,070.54) $
12.20%
0.390
(601.85) $
10.80%
0.352
80.40 $
9.40%
8.00%
0.322
0.298
786.47 $ 1,032.66
2.00
5,495 $
-8.50%
2.00
7,614 $
7.57%
2.00
9,524 $
22.45%
2.00
10,794 $
34.40%
After year 10
$
2.00
11,044
33.64%
10.00%
VALUATION DIAGNOSTICS
Invested capital at start of valuation
$
Invested capital at end of valuation
$
Change in invested capital over 10 years
$
Change in EBIT*(1t) (after-tax operating income) over 10 years
$
Marginal ROIC over 10 years
ROIC at end of valuation
Average WACC over the 10 years
Your calculated value as a percent of current price
Inputs
Revenue growth rate
Last period EBIT as % of revenue
(737.40)
11,043.59
11,780.99
6,270.46
53.23%
33.64%
12.90%
91.38%
If calculated value is
negative or looks too
Increase revenue growth
rate
23%
3.30640889
0.9995275
d2 =
N (d2) =
2.32253898
0.98989803
$275.53
18.4
696
2.05%
0.1936
0.00%
2.05%
Revenues
Cost of revenue
Marketing
SG&A expenses
Acquisition related costs
Pre-tax operating margin
2010
$312,941
$42,896
$290,569
$196,637
$203,183
$162,614
$613,173
$565,686
-$4,793
14.54%
54.83%
50.59%
-0.43%
-19.53%
15.00%
12.00%
45.00%
5.00%
23.00%
Industry Name
Number of FirmsAverage BetaUnlevered Beta corrected for cashMarket D/E Ratio Cost of Equity
Advertising
28
1.79
1.55
36.55%
11.80%
Aerospace/Defense
63
1.15
1.07
23.64%
8.74%
Air Transport
40
1.21
0.95
52.64%
9.01%
Apparel
48
1.35
1.32
15.80%
9.70%
Auto Parts
47
1.78
1.58
24.67%
11.71%
Automotive
19
1.50
0.93
108.58%
10.40%
Bank
418
0.75
0.47
85.86%
6.82%
Bank (Canadian)
7
0.86
0.84
13.77%
7.39%
Bank (Midwest)
40
0.96
0.68
69.03%
7.84%
Beverage
34
0.92
0.86
13.09%
7.63%
Biotechnology
120
1.13
1.20
13.24%
8.66%
Building Materials
47
1.33
0.88
71.38%
9.60%
Cable TV
24
1.43
0.97
68.40%
10.07%
Canadian Energy
10
1.14
0.94
28.44%
8.69%
Chemical (Basic)
17
1.28
1.19
18.75%
9.38%
Chemical (Diversified)
31
1.51
1.39
21.07%
10.46%
Chemical (Specialty)
83
1.37
1.20
23.06%
9.78%
Coal
25
1.59
1.45
16.16%
10.82%
Computer Software/Svcs
247
1.06
1.12
4.68%
8.31%
Computers/Peripherals
101
1.27
1.31
9.13%
9.33%
Diversified Co.
111
1.22
0.76
99.77%
9.07%
Drug
301
1.11
1.08
14.10%
8.55%
E-Commerce
52
1.14
1.19
4.58%
8.68%
Educational Services
37
0.79
0.84
8.89%
7.05%
Electric Util. (Central)
23
0.78
0.46
96.84%
6.99%
Electric Utility (East)
25
0.73
0.49
74.73%
6.74%
Electric Utility (West)
14
0.75
0.49
83.18%
6.83%
Electrical Equipment
79
1.32
1.29
10.91%
9.54%
Electronics
158
1.13
1.13
18.40%
8.63%
Engineering & Const
17
1.65
1.85
7.93%
11.12%
Entertainment
75
1.72
1.38
37.99%
11.44%
Entertainment Tech
31
1.39
1.55
7.80%
9.87%
Environmental
69
0.85
0.64
41.13%
7.32%
Financial Svcs. (Div.)
230
1.37
0.75
135.83%
9.79%
Food Processing
109
0.87
0.74
28.98%
7.41%
Foreign Electronics
9
1.14
1.23
29.55%
8.68%
Funeral Services
5
1.22
0.94
50.78%
9.08%
Furn/Home Furnishings
30
1.67
1.49
26.18%
11.19%
Healthcare Information
26
0.94
0.96
4.86%
7.76%
Heavy Truck/Equip Makers
8
1.94
1.55
46.41%
12.50%
Homebuilding
24
1.39
1.05
89.05%
9.88%
Hotel/Gaming
52
1.76
1.33
49.08%
11.63%
Household Products
22
1.17
1.05
18.38%
8.82%
Human Resources
24
1.44
1.57
9.14%
10.13%
Industrial Services
137
0.96
0.86
26.26%
7.83%
Information Services
26
1.10
0.98
20.21%
8.49%
Insurance (Life)
31
1.39
1.44
18.28%
9.86%
Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
67
0.92
0.94
11.12%
7.66%
Internet
180
1.11
1.21
1.57%
8.54%
Machinery
114
1.22
1.05
28.52%
9.05%
Maritime
53
1.37
0.64
138.71%
9.79%
Medical Services
139
0.88
0.80
38.70%
7.47%
Medical Supplies
231
1.02
1.01
11.48%
8.13%
Metal Fabricating
30
1.44
1.44
18.24%
10.12%
Metals & Mining (Div.)
69
1.33
1.25
11.01%
9.59%
Natural Gas (Div.)
32
1.25
0.99
34.98%
9.23%
27
13
24
12
95
27
37
23
163
19
11
68
74
83
27
8
23
6
14
52
8
60
143
15
8
38
29
25
115
14
18
19
13
104
85
28
181
13
15
33
5
12
48
5928
0.65
1.71
1.45
0.97
1.48
1.06
1.52
1.21
1.36
0.96
0.85
1.34
1.18
1.27
1.20
2.18
1.30
1.29
1.28
1.50
0.98
1.33
1.54
1.44
0.92
1.33
0.74
1.25
1.56
1.79
1.31
1.59
1.72
1.04
1.01
1.03
0.70
0.73
1.27
1.20
0.99
0.70
1.25
1.15
0.45
1.34
1.19
0.61
1.34
0.85
1.01
1.12
1.17
0.87
0.61
0.78
1.15
1.31
0.58
1.20
0.96
1.07
1.10
1.21
1.09
1.21
1.48
1.25
0.85
1.19
0.63
0.75
1.68
1.97
1.48
1.43
1.43
1.22
0.84
0.66
0.74
0.66
1.19
0.97
0.70
0.47
1.15
0.96
62.04%
46.80%
45.11%
75.32%
18.94%
44.52%
71.26%
18.37%
22.47%
20.38%
42.18%
98.86%
6.76%
11.20%
144.04%
104.42%
57.88%
30.86%
27.19%
37.21%
15.27%
16.09%
17.17%
27.52%
13.61%
25.22%
42.10%
149.83%
6.24%
5.84%
1.71%
23.47%
36.84%
10.71%
34.06%
84.06%
7.81%
21.57%
19.52%
42.14%
58.68%
77.89%
18.19%
36.04%
6.35%
11.40%
10.17%
7.90%
10.32%
8.32%
10.48%
9.03%
9.76%
7.85%
7.34%
9.64%
8.90%
9.32%
8.99%
13.62%
9.47%
9.40%
9.38%
10.40%
7.91%
9.58%
10.57%
10.10%
7.64%
9.61%
6.82%
9.21%
10.68%
11.77%
9.52%
10.83%
11.44%
8.24%
8.10%
8.16%
6.61%
6.77%
9.31%
8.97%
7.97%
6.61%
9.24%
8.72%
Cost of Debt
6.29%
4.79%
5.29%
5.29%
5.79%
4.79%
4.79%
4.29%
4.29%
5.29%
6.29%
5.79%
4.79%
4.29%
4.79%
5.29%
5.29%
5.29%
5.79%
7.29%
5.29%
7.29%
5.29%
5.29%
4.29%
4.29%
4.29%
5.29%
5.79%
5.29%
6.29%
6.29%
6.29%
5.79%
4.79%
4.29%
4.29%
5.29%
5.29%
5.79%
5.29%
5.79%
4.79%
5.29%
5.29%
4.29%
5.29%
4.29%
7.29%
5.29%
5.29%
5.79%
5.79%
5.29%
7.29%
4.79%
ROC
9.79%
23.55%
12.96%
17.16%
14.31%
12.11%
NA
NA
NA
23.26%
13.79%
11.22%
14.10%
18.03%
21.71%
18.99%
17.58%
24.20%
41.96%
41.12%
10.98%
22.06%
16.02%
33.53%
10.21%
11.25%
10.78%
18.44%
15.92%
20.10%
11.56%
6.84%
12.00%
6.82%
15.80%
11.68%
10.66%
11.99%
17.97%
12.58%
-17.00%
8.66%
18.46%
10.12%
15.41%
15.75%
NA
NA
33.77%
15.27%
11.34%
16.71%
22.36%
18.19%
18.61%
14.08%
4.29%
5.79%
5.29%
5.29%
4.79%
4.79%
6.29%
4.29%
6.29%
5.29%
4.29%
6.29%
6.29%
5.29%
5.29%
5.79%
4.79%
4.79%
4.29%
5.79%
4.29%
5.29%
5.79%
4.79%
4.29%
4.79%
4.29%
4.79%
5.29%
5.29%
4.79%
4.79%
5.29%
5.79%
5.29%
4.79%
4.79%
5.79%
4.79%
5.29%
4.29%
3.79%
5.29%
5.29%
38.29%
31.88%
31.09%
42.96%
15.92%
30.80%
41.61%
15.52%
18.35%
16.93%
29.67%
49.71%
6.33%
10.07%
59.02%
51.08%
36.66%
23.58%
21.38%
27.12%
13.25%
13.86%
14.65%
21.58%
11.98%
20.14%
29.63%
59.97%
5.87%
5.52%
1.68%
19.01%
26.92%
9.68%
25.41%
45.67%
7.25%
17.74%
16.33%
29.65%
36.98%
43.78%
15.39%
26.49%
5.17%
9.06%
8.41%
6.44%
9.31%
6.93%
8.34%
8.11%
9.02%
7.20%
6.40%
7.74%
8.70%
8.85%
6.32%
9.61%
7.31%
8.20%
8.05%
8.88%
7.35%
8.82%
9.71%
8.62%
7.10%
8.39%
5.63%
5.78%
10.34%
11.40%
9.42%
9.56%
9.55%
7.93%
7.19%
6.09%
6.43%
6.36%
8.40%
7.48%
6.29%
4.79%
8.53%
7.60%
11.38%
10.07%
14.74%
11.66%
19.02%
17.60%
13.13%
15.12%
22.24%
14.08%
12.52%
11.83%
9.87%
15.47%
7.63%
-10.39%
23.00%
16.46%
12.95%
11.44%
NA
23.32%
20.14%
13.11%
15.06%
15.82%
16.96%
10.87%
23.32%
8.64%
30.79%
4.75%
14.67%
23.21%
22.89%
22.72%
NA
29.29%
27.12%
11.58%
9.53%
7.53%
15.42%
16.59%
11.10%
5.86%
10.85%
13.13%
16.75%
15.15%
-6.09%
11.93%
9.69%
12.83%
14.89%
7.94%
5.44%
8.05%
3.23%
-6.59%
55.74%
9.77%
12.84%
8.99%
13.06%
27.13%
11.19%
15.84%
12.48%
15.70%
13.81%
11.17%
6.99%
-1.32%
15.53%
-2.01%
10.55%
6.63%
13.75%
16.35%
-1.59%
48.24%
32.29%
-0.38%
3.80%
7.07%
10.03%
10.28%
2.49%
2.82%
3.66%
4.19%
5.00%
5.25%
1.04%
7.10%
4.41%
2.58%
7.47%
1.50%
12.43%
5.71%
3.66%
18.10%
3.47%
68.47%
8.68%
3.85%
NA
5.12%
2.05%
3.99%
4.71%
1.63%
1.73%
8.29%
10.57%
22.97%
8.95%
3.58%
2.11%
4.34%
4.85%
3.77%
NA
5.60%
6.50%
1.73%
0.31%
6.08%
5.65%
4.47%
11.26%
8.25%
5.75%
20.98%
23.32%
10.66%
12.31%
8.91%
32.05%
4.32%
14.78%
15.44%
25.01%
11.77%
22.07%
-83.38%
12.72%
138.72%
24.70%
14.10%
NA
13.45%
5.86%
5.07%
6.49%
4.41%
3.63%
19.56%
18.35%
7.18%
8.66%
3.01%
15.05%
9.10%
28.64%
26.67%
NA
15.70%
8.81%
6.09%
8.62%
24.33%
14.73%
14.84%
16.80%
16.18%
8.14%
24.80%
30.58%
14.40%
14.96%
14.73%
43.05%
6.84%
15.13%
22.74%
36.82%
15.32%
31.67%
20.69%
18.87%
151.62%
37.26%
19.07%
NA
19.04%
9.76%
7.87%
10.03%
6.76%
5.44%
27.29%
27.31%
9.81%
12.00%
4.31%
19.54%
14.56%
39.07%
38.83%
NA
22.96%
12.77%
11.78%
14.64%
37.41%
21.16%
20.44%
Sales/CapitalReinvestment Rate
1.27
-21.48%
2.94
2.92%
2.22
25.03%
1.97
7.62%
2.47
-0.44%
1.82
4.63%
NA
0.00%
NA
0.00%
NA
0.00%
1.44
2.52%
0.91
-3.96%
0.81
-11.33%
0.67
-7.87%
0.54
36.94%
1.51
17.10%
1.45
26.08%
1.67
7.86%
1.28
13.98%
2.14
-6.93%
3.89
-5.57%
0.64
-6.31%
0.92
-29.03%
1.97
-1.19%
2.85
-1.61%
0.55
55.36%
0.59
63.04%
0.56
63.94%
1.46
9.49%
2.83
10.53%
4.38
0.82%
0.75
-5.43%
1.07
-62.93%
0.84
-2.37%
0.33
24.40%
2.02
11.36%
2.17
-18.30%
0.81
-6.00%
2.01
-24.99%
1.80
-23.43%
1.88
-22.53%
0.99
NA
0.65
39.18%
1.19
2.10%
5.54
-12.80%
2.16
12.53%
0.96
-8.83%
NA
0.77%
NA
72.42%
2.18
-7.15%
1.51
13.86%
0.37
76.91%
2.73
0.33%
2.48
0.02%
1.53
26.23%
0.83
45.02%
0.43
99.83%
1.01
1.22
2.56
0.56
0.82
1.65
1.07
1.70
0.69
3.26
0.85
0.77
0.39
1.31
0.35
0.12
1.81
0.12
0.52
0.81
NA
1.73
3.44
2.58
2.32
3.59
4.68
0.56
1.27
1.20
3.56
1.58
0.97
2.55
0.80
0.85
NA
1.87
3.08
1.90
1.11
0.31
1.05
1.12
29.96%
-59.73%
-8.37%
87.33%
41.47%
-7.84%
-23.96%
61.48%
54.97%
1.22%
32.68%
81.59%
79.31%
-14.52%
47.28%
NA
-12.51%
-7.77%
32.15%
45.40%
9.74%
14.02%
41.81%
134.58%
-2.31%
19.03%
14.38%
-105.93%
-9.91%
225.40%
10.68%
121.34%
2.80%
-20.24%
-5.14%
-14.93%
0.00%
-1.38%
6.86%
38.78%
64.81%
90.25%
-62.83%
7.80%