Probability & Random Process

Lakshman Mahto Roll No- D10005 January 2011

Lecture-3 Abstract: In this lecture we will see conditional probability stoichastic independent events in the same sample space, Bayes theorem and some examples on these terms.

Conditional Probability

In last two lectures we have learnt the method of nding the probability theory of an event. If we two events such that occurnce of one of event aects the probability of the other, then this leads towards conditional probability. For example: Consider the experiment of tossing three coins and let E be the event at least two heads appear and F be the event rst coin shows tail, then probability of E when F is already occurred is 1/4. Denition: If E nad F are two events associated with the same samle space of a random xprimnt, the occurence of the event E given that F has already occurred, is P (E/F ) = P (E F )/P (F ) provided P (F ) = 0. Propertis of Conditional Probability: 1. P(S/F)=P(F/F)=1. 2. If A and B are any two vents of a sample sample S and F is an event of S such that P(F)= 0, then P((AB)) = P (A/F ) + P (B/F ) P ((A B/F )). 3.P (E /F ) = 1 P (E/F ). Example (1) A family has two children. What is the probability that both 1

the children are boys given that at least one of them is a boy ? Example (2) In a school, there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out of 430, 10% of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly studies in Class XII given that the chosen student is a girl? Example 3 Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly and then one card is drawn randomly. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, what is the probability that it is an even number?

1.1

Stoichastic Independence

If A and B are two events in the same sample space S, from denition of conditional probability we have P (A B) = P (A/B)P (B). This is known as multiplication rule. Example 1 An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?. Example 2 Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shued cards. What is the probability that rst two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace? Denition: Let E and F be two events in the same sample space S, then these two are said to be stoichastic independent, if P (E/F ) = P (E)prividedP (F ) = 0 andP (F/E) = P (F )prividedP (E) = 0. Using multiplication rule we can dene independnt events as follows Two events E and F be in the same sample space S are said to be stoichastic independent, if 2

P (F F ) = P (E)P (F ). Remarks: 1. Two events E and F are said to be dependent if they are not independent. 2. Stoichastic independenct and mutually exclusive events are two dierent things. Term independent is dened in terms of probability of events whereas mutually exclusive is dened in term of events (subset of sample space). 3. Two experiments are said to be independent if for every pair of events E and F, where E is associated with the rst experiment and F with the second experiment, the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of the events E and F when the two experiments are performed is the product of P(E) and P(F) calculated separately on the basis of two experiments i.e P (E F ) = P (E)P (F ). 3. Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent, if P (A B) = P (A)P (B) P (B C) = P (B)P (C) P (C A) = P (C)P (A) P (A B C) = P (A)P (B)P (C). Example 1 Prove that if E and F are independent events, then so are the events E and F. Example 2 A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event head appears on the coin and B be the event 3 on the die. Check whether A and B are independent events or not. Example 3 In a hostel, 60% of the students read Hindi news paper, 40% read English news paper and 20% read both Hindi and English news papers. 3

A student is selected at random. (a) Find the probability that she reads neither Hindi nor English news papers. (b) If she reads Hindi news paper, nd the probability that she reads English news paper. (c) If she reads English news paper, nd the probability that she reads Hindi news paper.

1.2

Bayes Theorem

1. Partition of a sample space:A set of events E1 , E2 , ..., En represent a partition of the sample space S if they are pairwise disjoint, exhaustive and have nonzero probabilities. 2. Theorem for Total Probability: Let E1 , E2 , ..., En be a partition of the sample space S nad let Let A be any event associated with S, then P (A) = P (E1 )P (A|E1 ) + P (E2 )P (A|E2 ) + ... + P (En )P (A|En ) P (A) =
n i=1

P (Ei )P (A/Ei ).

Example 1 A person has undertaken a construction job. The probabilities are 0.65 that there will be strike, 0.80 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is no strike, and 0.32 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike. Determine the probability that the construction job will be completed on time. Bayes Theorem:Let E1 , E2 , ..., En be a partition of the sample space S nad let Let A be any event associated with S, then P (Ei /A) = P (Ei )P (A/Ei )/ Remarks: 1 The events E1, E2 , ..., En are called hypotheses. 2. The probability P (Ei )is called the priori probability of the hypothesis Ei .
n i=1

P (Ei )P (A/Ei ).

3. The conditional probability P (Ei /A) is called a posteriori probability of the hypothesisEi . 4.Bayes theorem is also called the formula for the probability of causes. Since the Ei s are a partition of the sample space S, one and only one of the events Ei occurs (i.e. one of the events Ei must occur and only one can occur). Hence, the above formula gives us the probability of a particular Ei (i.e. a Cause), given that the event A has occurred. Application: (1) The Monty Hall problem: We are presented with three doors red, green, and blue from which to choose, one of which has a prize hidden behind it. Suppose we choose the red door. The host of the contest, who knows the location of the prize and will not open that door, opens the blue door and reveals that there is no prize behind it. He then asks if we wish to change from our initial choice of red. Will changing to green now improve our chances of winning the prize? Solution: Let us call the situations where the prize is behind one of the doors door Ar , Ag , and Ab , for the red, green, and blue doors, respectively. It is commonly assumed the prize is placed randomly, hence P (Ar ) = P (Ag ) = P (Ab ) = 1 . 3 Let B be the event that the host opens the blue door, then P (B) = 1 2 * When the prize is behind the red door, the host is free to open the green or the blue door. If the host opens them uniformly at random: P (B|Ar ) = 1 . 2 * When the prize is behind the green door, the host must open the blue door. Thus: P (B|Ag ) = 1. * When the prize is behind the blue door, the host must open the green door. Thus, P (B|Ab ) = 0. Thus, under the condition we have chosen the red door, we get: 1 1 r )P P (Ar |B) = P (B|A(B) (Ar ) = 2 1 3 = 1 P 3 P (Ag |B) =
P (B|Ag )P (Ag ) P (B)

b )P P (Ab |B) = P (B|A(B) (Ab ) = =0 P So, we should change from the red to the green door for the higher probability of winning.

1 2 0 1 3 1 2

1 1 3

2 3

Examples on Bayes Theorem: Example 1 Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another Bag II contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from Bag II. Example 2 Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold ? Example 3 In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is theprobability that it is manufactured by the machine ? References: 1. Matehmatics Part2 Class XII NCERT 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes theorem