Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department Press Release Dated: 16 September, 2011 Subject: Status

of southwest monsoon 2011 rainfall and weekly forecast (1723 September) and outlook for subsequent week (24-30 September) Highlights of the week (8- 14 September) o During the week, central India and south Peninsula received above normal rainfall on many days. The all India rainfall during the week was 1% above Long Period Average (LPA). o The monsoon trough remained active with embedded cyclonic circulations during the week. o The seasonal rainfall for country as a whole remained 3% above LPA. Synoptic features o Last weeks low pressure area over Orissa & neighbourhood moved across Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, south Rajasthan and south Pakistan till 13th and became less marked on 14th. o A low pressure area formed over northwest Bay of Bengal on 13th, persisted over same area on 14th and lay over Gangetic West Bengal & adjoining north Bay of Bengal on 15th. o Two western disturbances also affected Western Himalayan Region and adjoining northern plains during the week. o Axis of monsoon trough oscillated north to south around its normal position during the week. o The off shore trough ran from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast during the week.
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Rainfall during the week (8- 14 September) During the week, all the four broad homogenous regions received above normal rainfall except east & northeast India, where the rainfall was 40% below LPA. The statistics of the weekly rainfall are given below: Regions Country as a whole Northwest India Central India South Peninsula East & northeast India Actual Rainfall (mm) 46.4 41.6 56.0 36.9 47.2 Normal Rainfall (mm) 45.8 34.1 49.6 30.8 78.6 % Departure from LPA 1 22 13 20 -40

Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess in 14, normal in 11, deficient in 07 and scanty in 04 sub-divisions (mainly in east & northeast India) during the week. In area-wise distribution, 71% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Meteorological sub-divisionwise and week by week rainfall is given in Annexure I & II. Monthly Rainfall Scenario (1- 14 September) The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole from 1-14 September has been 20% above the LPA with above normal rainfall over all homogenous regions except east & northeast India, where the rainfall was 45% below LPA. Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1 June- 14 September) For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon so far upto 14 September has been 3% above LPA. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad homogeneous regions of India are given below: Regions Country as a whole Northwest India Central India South Peninsula East & northeast India Actual Rainfall (mm) 829.2 606.1 1008.6 677.9 1067.1 Normal Rainfall (mm) 807.4 573.0 900.7 621.4 1292.1 % Departure from LPA 3 6 12 9 -17

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 08, normal over 24 and deficient in 04 (mainly over east & northeast India) sub-divisions. 2

In area-wise distribution, 91% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. 466 (77%) out of 603 districts of the country have received normal to excess rainfall. Cumulative Meteorological sub-divisionwise seasonal and week by week rainfall is given in Annexure III & IV. Current synoptic conditions as on 16 September, 2011 o A low pressure area lies over Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto midtropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with height. o The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Pilani, Kanpur, centre of the low pressure area (near Gaya), Kolkata and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. o A western disturbance as an upper air system lies over north Pakistan & adjoining Jammu & Kashmir. o The off shore trough runs from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. Forecast for next one week (17-23 September) o Decrease in rainfall activity over northwest India. Conditions may become favourable for withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of northwest India towards end of the week. o Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over east & adjoining central India and northeastern states during many days of week. o Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would also occur along the west coast during the week. o Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over south peninsula during many days of the week. o Isolated rainfall activity likely over remaining parts of the country. Outlook for the subsequent week (24-30 September) o Further withdrawal of southwest Monsoon is likely from some more parts of northwest India.

Next weekly update will be issued on next Friday i.e. 23 September, 2011

Annexure I

Annexure II

Week-by-week rainfall departure (%) from LPA

Annexure III

Annexure IV

Week-by-week seasonal rainfall departure (%) from LPA