Ending The American Winter Ver 2.0

Running head: ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION
Ending the American Winter: A Green Prescription for the American Economic Malaise Michael David Ballantine Green Party Candidate US Presidential Election 2012 December 17, 2011 Americans Elect Primary Challenge
www.mikeballantine2012.org www.americanselect.org mcamelyne@gmail.com mcamelyne@aol.com
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Abstract This paper provides a growth-oriented solution to current problems that America faces both domestically and internationally. It explores job creation, health-care, tax policy, and consumer debt solutions. Further, it identifies ways to manage our environment and provide
alternative energy strategies based on a pragmatic approach rather than a purely ideological one. Finally, this analysis considers the possible resolutions to some of our most contentious social problems in education and our relations between one another and between the government and the people. The proposals described in this document represent the desires of the CampaignCommittee to Elect Mike Ballantine President 2012 to present to the American people as an alternative vision to those put forward by the Republicans or the Democrats. Whereas, Mike is running as a member of the Green Party, the platform for the Green Party has not been presented for 2012 and there may be some deviations from the official Green Platform.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION
Table of Contents Abstract.page 2 Table of Contents..page 3 Summary on Job Creation.page 6 Summary on Tax Policypage 7 Summary on Debt Consolidation.page 8 Summary on Health Care.page 9 Summary on Educationpage 10 Summary on Energy Independence.page 11 Summary on Budgetpage 12 Summary on Foreign Policypage 13 Summary on Regulationspage 14 Summary on People and Government.page 15 Introduction.page 16 Finding a solution.page 18 Vision for tomorrow.....page 20 Achieving Greatness....page 22 Identifying Groups..page 23 Free-Market Capitalism...page 25 Depression Era Responses...page 27 Industry Commitmentspage 30 Competition with China and India..page 31 Details Infrastructure Program Stimulus Programpage 32 Creating Jobs...page 34 Space Technology...page 36 High Speed Rail......page 39 New Urban Centerspage 40 Stimulus Program/Tax Policiespage 41/42 Jump-Starting the Economy....page 51
Entitlements Medicare/Medicaid.page 54 Dual Currency Regime (Outside the Box).page 56 Educationpage 58 Specific Education Proposalspage 64 Proposals 1 to 10: ...pages 66, 69, 71, 72, 73, 74, 77, 78, 80, 81 Discussion on Educational Standardspage 88 Energy Independence...page 92 Bio-Algae Oil...page 94 Tar-Sands Oil Canada...page 95 Shale-Oil..page 96 State-Owned Oil Company..page 98 Geothermal...page 100 Solar-Mirror Farms..page 102 Solar Panels.page 103 Coal Gasification.page 103 Biomass, Wind and Other..page 104 Balancing the Budget.page 105 Inflation Risks....page 107 Budget Cuts...page 107 Reducing the National Debt...page 110 Foreign Policy.page 111 Europe, OECD, Developing Economies, NAFTA.page 113 Durban Conference and the Kyoto Agreement.page 114 Nuclear Arms..page 116 US Defense Policy..page 117 Space Consortium, Africa, and Middle East..page 119 Muslim Brotherhood and Israel.page 121 Iran.page 123 Southeast Asia, Korean Penninsula, Brics, Latin American Communists, DOHA..page 124
Two Party System, Green Party.........page 127 Immigration and Undocumented Workerspage 130 Constitutional Conventionpage 135 War on Drugs, Decriminalizing Drugs, Legalizing Marijuanapage 138 LGBT Issues, Religion vs Secularism, Teen Pregnancy and Abortion....page 141 Supreme Court, The Patriot Act, and Indefinite Detention..page 145 Occupy Movements, Wolf-Pac, Occupy Assembly, and Wisconsin Protests..page 147 Referencespage 149 Appendix 1: Job-Creation Project List.page 161 Appendix II: Liquidity Trap/Keynes 2.0......page 162 Appendix III: Budget Issuespage 175 Appendix IV: High-Density Ultra-Modern Urban Centers & Climate Change.page 177
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Ending the American Winter: A Green Prescription for the American Economic Malaise Summary Job Creation: Job Creation is one of the most important issues for the American electorate, yet it continues to be ignored by the Republican candidates and gets only token acknowledgement by President Obama. Without a robust job creation program American will remain mired in a slowly deteriorating environment as factory jobs continue to move offshore and workers unprepared for a modern service economy are abandoned. We propose the following measures: 20 million new jobs in 30 months o 8 million jobs associated with infrastructure improvements 3 to 5 years o 5 million jobs associated with long-term construction 5 to 10 years o 2.5 million jobs associated with a new national energy policy 6 to 30 years o 2 million jobs associated with a new space industry 8 to 20 years o 1.5 million jobs in emissions free power plant construction 3 to 6 years o 1 million jobs in education 3 to 30 years 10 million of these jobs are expected to last from one year to three years Financing for these jobs will come from a new 20-year agency obligation bond issue organized by a new infrastructure bank division of the Federal Reserve Initial financing will be in the amount of $2 trillion with an additional $3 trillion in loan guarantees for private companies on specific projects Our project list can be found in Appendix I
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Summary Tax Policy: This represents a proposed simplification of taxes for all Americans. However, our program is not contingent upon any tax revisions and this represents a more progressive tax policy that will support a growth-oriented economy. Eliminate all deductions on personal income tax reporting including the AMT Eliminate taxes on interest income and dividends under $25,000 per year Apply new personal income tax rates on all short-term capital gains Apply a capital gains rate of 30% on 1 to 2 year, 25% on 3 to 5 year, 20% on 6 to 10 year, 10% on any gains held more than 10 years New Income tax brackets applied to individual earnings: o Income 0 to $20,000 No income tax o Income $20,001 to $40,000 3.0% o Income $40,001 to $75,000 6.0% o Income $75,000 to $100,000 8.0% o Income $100,000 to $200,000 13.5% o Income $200,000 to $500,000 20.5% o Income $500,001 or more 27.5% A surcharge on incomes above $500,000 for a period of 5 years of 10% A corporate tax on executive pay exceeding $1,000,000 of 50% Eliminate the Medicare withholding tax once a new Medicare program is approved The objective of the new rate structure is to give a small tax cut to workers earning less than $100,000 a year and a tax increase on those earning $100,000 or more of between $150 billion and $175 billion per year. We will need to confirm the exact rates to yield this amount to the treasury prior to presenting our proposal to Congress.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION A new Corporate minimum tax of 5% on all income
Summary Consumer Debt: We believe that the greatest challenge facing consumers at this time is unmanageable debt levels associated with the implosion of the housing bubble and the explosion in tuition fees. We believe that unless this debt is brought to a more reasonable level that the economy will be unable to overcome its current poor performance. Hence we propose the following actions: Choice 1: Allow homeowners to apply for a write down of up to 30% of their current mortgage balance to bring their outstanding debt below the market value of their home. Choice 2: Allow any homeowner in foreclosure proceedings, unemployed, or on disability to apply for up to a 30% reduction in their mortgage balance. Choice 3: Allow every homeowner to write down their current mortgage balance by 20%. Student Loans: o Write off the first $10,000 owed by every graduate or student o Write down the remaining balance of students by 50% o Issue new repayment terms to include, principal deferment for up to 5 years for new graduates o A fixed interest rate of 3% for the life of the loan on all outstanding and new loans o Principal payments limited to 10% of earned income for up to 20 years o After 20 years, the remaining balance will be forgiven o New guidelines on tuition payments that equate future income to tuition payment Medical debt relief o People with more than $10,000 in medical debts can apply for special relief Consumer credit cards and other debt will have a maximum interest rate of 18%
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION All consumer loans will be converted to Daily Principal and Interest Accrual and alternative interest calculations such as rule of 78s will be eliminated.
Summary Health Care: We believe that affordable health care is a basic right of every citizen and legal resident of the United States and where necessary the government will provide it. To accomplish this, we propose extending Medicare to All, consolidating Medicare, Medicaid, the VA Hospital System, and the Federal employees Health Care into one insurance provider. Medicare and Medicaid will be merged into one program The VA Hospital system will be converted to cooperatives and privatized Veterans will be given access to Medicare with enhanced benefits to reflect their current benefit programs allowing Veterans to go to any medical provider The Federal Employees Health Insurance program will be brought under Medicare The Medicare and Medicaid payroll taxes will be eliminated State contributions to Medicaid will be eliminated freeing up resources for states A National Health Emergency will be declared for one-year until Congress completes this legislation allowing all 50 million uninsured Americans to become immediately eligible for Medicare and all state payments to Medicaid will be waived during the one-year period. A 10% National Sales Tax will be proposed to pay for the Medicare for All program providing a projected $1.2 trillion in revenue or roughly 55% of total health expenditures.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION A commission will be established to compare procedural costs in Europe and Canada against comparable treatment in the United States to identify $500 billion in annual savings. Non-resident aliens can purchase coverage in this program as well as Mexican and Canadian nationals through a NAFTA Medical exchange program. Summary Education: We believe that education is an investment in the nations future and is not a cost. Therefore we propose an expansion of educational opportunities and a reordering of the educational system to produce the highest quality students in the world. We believe that the
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educational policies of the past 50 years while well meaning are a failure and represent a national tragedy. We propose the following changes to be implemented in 2014: Elimination of the NCLB Act and all 7 Title programs Introduction of Individual Education Plans (IEP) for every student o There will be five primary templates with 6 sub-templates for these programs Academic college bound Technical/Professional possibly college bound Vocational/Trade non-college bound Special Education English Language Learner
o Funding will be based on a students IEP plan and a variable cost factor according to where the student lives o Students will advance based on mastery, ending social promotion School days will be lengthened in inner-city communities, including Saturday mornings Year round schooling will be implemented nation-wide Each student will receive 4 hours of in-class learning with a teacher and 2 4 hours of online learning with a proctor
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION All textbooks and paper will be eliminated and replaced with notebooks or notepads Teachers will be responsible for lesson plans within a basic set of standards for each subject, daily standards will be eliminated There will be one merit test given at the completion of 8th grade and one of five graduation tests given at the completion of 12th grade A 90/10 Dual-language Program will be available to all non-English speaking students Schools may provide the Dual-language component through VR or on-line programs
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Summary Energy Independence We do not subscribe to the theory of trade interdependence to avoid conflict, instead we believe it is in the nations long-term interest to provide 100% of its energy requirements from domestic sources or our neighbors in NAFTA. To accomplish this, we propose making strategic long-term investments under our jobs creation program to create jobs, reduce our carbon emissions by 50% by 2020 and 75% by 2030 and 90% by 2040. Construct 1,000 terrawatts of solar-mirror farm capacity in the Southwest Construct 500 terrawatts of solar-panel capacity nationwide Construct a DC power transmission grid nationwide Construct two coal-gasification processing plants to produce natural gas and other byproducts. Purchase half the existing coal power plants and decommission them Construct 20 new nuclear reactors and reinvestigate the requirements of thorium as a fuel Begin large scale production of bio-algae based fuel products Reduce the production of corn based ethanol by 90% Allow the importation of sugar based ethanol from Brazil Impose a $5 per barrel tax on tar-sands oil to establish a reserve for future clean-ups
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Construct a nuclear reactor in Alberta to supply the tar-sands industry with electricity Provide the infrastructure including nuclear reactors to develop American shale-oil reserves in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah along with a new high-density urban center Construct a new 3 million per barrel day refinery in Detroit to process tar-sands oil Construct three new petro-chemical facilities to process domestic oil products Establish a $50 billion foreign aid fund to provide US equipment to developing nations
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Summary Budget: The details of how we arrived at our budget can be found in the text portion of the document as well as additional materials in Appendix III. We propose a balanced budget in year three of our administration. We reach a balanced budget through a mix of spending cuts, tax increases, and revenue increases from employing 20 million more workers. Here are the major changes: Cut defense by $310 billion to 2% of GDP Cut TSA budget by $50 billion reducing it to $10 billion, privatize airport security Cut discretionary nondefense spending by $60 billion; foreign aid, agriculture, etc o Consolidate Department of Commerce, Transportation, Agriculture, Space Development, EPA, Energy, and Labor into a new Composite Department o Break-up Homeland Security and put responsibilities under the FBI Reduction in unemployment reduces unemployment insurance and food stamps $75 billion per year Consolidation of various health programs will cut waste by $12 billion per year Increase personal income taxes by $150 billion per year
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Increase corporate taxes by $200 billion per year Increase the education budget by $100 billion per year Reorganize NASA into three organizations: Space Development, Space Science, and Space Traffic Administration
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Consolidate Health Plans into one Medicare for All program with a 10% National Sales Tax yielding $1.2 trillion per year
Tariff of 40% on all Chinese imports yielding between $105 and $115 billion per year
Summary Foreign Policy We propose a more world friendly foreign policy that treats other countries as equals. To meet our proposed cut-backs in defense spending, we would bring 90% of all overseas deployed personnel including the contractors at the US embassy in Iraq, and those in Afghanistan within the first 90 days. The remaining troops would oversee the return of US equipment and material. We would close all but 50 strategic bases worldwide and exit the Persian Gulf. We would propose the following initiatives: Change the UN Security Council makeup replacing Britain with India and France with the EU to reflect the global changes since 1947. Initiate unilateral reduction in nuclear weapons warheads to 500 warheads and begin negotiations with Russia and China to make similar reductions End sanctions against Iran and begin the process of establishing a consulate office End all drone activity worldwide End negotiations for a two-state solution of Israel/Palestine and begin negotiations to transition the territory into a single-state with a new constitution Renegotiate the WTO to include provisions for fair-trade
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Suspend the sale of military related equipment including crowd control equipment and begin negotiations with Russia, Britain, Germany, France, Israel to follow suit. Sign a new climate change treaty with OECD nations Establish immigration reform in the US for Mexican and Canadian citizens Establish a new work permit program for guest workers and students in the US End all overseas drug enforcement programs and end the war on drugs and terror
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Summary Government Regulations Some of the recent regulations have gone beyond reasonableness with farmers being punished for producing and selling whole milk or government enforcement of drug laws contravening state initiatives. We propose the following programs to reduce regulatory interference with state and personal rights: Set up a commission to review every regulation issued prior to 1980 to determine if it should be considered valid, modified or eliminated. Each regulation will be reissued with a 20 year sunset provision. Set up a commission to review regulations that are currently being challenged to solve immediate problems that have unintended consequences. Place a one-year injunction on new fracking wells until regulations can be issued to address citizen concerns regarding potential pollution hazards. New wells will require a formal geologic survey to be performed prior to issuance of a permit along with a new performance bond requirement for all drillers. Issue new regulations for the shale-oil industry Issue new regulations for the space development industry
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Issue new regulations for the long-term storage of nuclear waste Issue a composite regulation to replace Title I VII in education Decriminalize drugs and move to new categories reflective of the Portugal program Legalize Marijuana and issue new import regulations Revise the Glass-Steagall Act to include Internet Banking and reissue Revise the Federal Reserve Act and require the FED to maintain a zero-inflation policy Tighten up ethics regulations in the financial services industry
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Summary People and Government There is a great divide between the trust that people have in government and the performance on many of our leaders. Corporate and lobbyist money dominates our political circles limiting peoples voices and opportunities. We propose the following actions: Call a constitutional convention to propose amendments and changes to the constitution o Define a person in the constitution to eliminate corporate personhood o Extend equal rights to all citizens regardless of race or gender o Require Federal elections to be publicly financed o Laws that Congress passes must also apply to Congress o Line-Item veto on all budgetary spending bills o Increase the number of Representatives to one Representative per 250,000 people o Repeal the 17th amendment returning Senate elections back to the state houses o Term limits of 12 years for all Congressmen o Define Natural Birth as two-citizen parents at time of birth o A provision allowing the challenge of any legislation by 61% of the electorate o Elimination of the electoral college Challenge the Patriot Act and the new National Defense Act allowing military detentions Challenge DOMA and create a new National Civil Union Registration
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Allow any employed undocumented worker to receive a work permit for 1 year, renewable for three years at the cost of $250 per worker
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Allow any student enrolled at a public or private school in the United States to receive a student visa regardless of entry status
Grant Mexican and Canadian citizens automatic 6 month visas at border entry points To maintain judicial balance, replace retiring judges with judges of similar persuasion No legislative changes to Roe vs Wade
Introduction One of the strengths of being an American is the American insistence on individuality and the right of personal choice as long as Americans do it together (Stewart & Bennett, 1991). When one first becomes a member of the Green Party, one faces the prospect of explaining why one would ever do something so silly. After all, it is not like the Greens will win an election anytime soon. Why would anyone except a Cubs fan root for a team seemingly always at the bottom of the standings? One should be a Democrat or a Republican, be on a winning team, why waste a vote, or as many criticize Greens, throw the election to the wrong party as happened with George Bush in 2000 (Ashton, 2010; Herron & Lewis, 2006). A simple response might be that one continues to have ones pride and self-dignity. What is the point of voting for a predetermined winner picked by an elite group to advance their agenda and not the agenda of the voters casting the ballots? When does winning, trump doing the right thing, or expressing ones utter disdain for a bankrupt system populated by shills trading their votes for 30 pieces of silver? A third party candidate at the very least changes the dialogue and forces the major party candidates to confront issues they may ignore (Herrnson & Faucheux, 1999). No, it is time to
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step out of the dystopian nightmare engineered by Madison Avenue and return to the reality that not only can America move beyond its current travails but also move forward and become that beacon of freedom dreamt of by our forefathers. If one asked any economist, one would universally hear nearly the same response regarding our current problems. They might couch their commentary in unintelligible euphemisms but the consensus is that America has a lack of aggregate demand (Rudd, 2009). In normal speak that means, people stopped buying stuff. Of course Americans have stopped buying products, they are buried under a mountain of debt. Further, a good 15% of them are out of work or working a part-time job to keep food on the table (SGS, 2011). Finally, housing prices have dropped 33% (Streitfeld, 2011) in three years wiping out 60% of home equity or roughly $15 trillion in assets (Weller & Helburn, 2009). It is no wonder Americans have stopped buying things and instead are focusing on paying off their debts.
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(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UPdFVbBprTk/TVmsdOfvMzI/AAAAAAAAAf0 /XMKBV7WaGqg/s1600/consumerdebt+Feb+2011.png) The dilemma is that the economy needs people to buy things to get the economy moving again. How to accomplish this objective is the real battle going on in Washington and on the stage where Republicans bandy about one ill thought-up plan after another. Spouting intellectually barren rhetoric, each candidate spews forth ideas as if they originated on Mount Olympus when, in fact each would simply bring more misery upon a nearly desperate populace by imposing austerity on the poorest and largesse on the richest (Krugman, 2011). The loudest voices clamor for fiscal discipline after years of nonfiscal discipline as some sort of contrarian panacea for everything that ails us. It was wrong to finance two wars on a credit card (Lazzaro,
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2011), let us not compound that stupidity by tightening the belt just as we need to loosen it. We cannot recover the past 10 years by imposing austerity when the nation is on the verge of depression, that would be foolish (Reich, 2011). In 1936, President Roosevelt did exactly that and extended the depression for another five years (NPR, 2011). Why is it that Republicans demand fiscal austerity when the Democrats supporters are receiving the money but scream for fiscal largesse when Republican supporters want more money? Is that really the best way to run a nation composed of more than just Democrats and Republicans? The nation remains divided because our leaders have no vision. Without a vision, one might as well standstill and wait for lightening to strike him or her and that is exactly what the American people will choose to do if they vote for a Republican or a Democrat for President. When one is unburdened by the balkanization and partisanship of the two parties, one can engage in a variety of what if scenarios. Better yet one can dream and envision an America shorn of its self-destructive divisions and cooperating once again for the betterment of mankind, a very John F. Kennedyesque perspective. America has lost that vision but not every American has thrown in the towel. Finding a Solution Every problem has a solution, and this problem facing us has one as well. Maybe it has not been thought of yet, or maybe Americans lack the will to embrace it. Congressman Ron Paul has a vision of free markets and almost no government interference in the economy. It is a seductive siren call to the rocks below because it depends on free markets that do not exist and the willingness of Americans to bankrupt themselves, give up their jobs in mass, and create a new America from the old Americas ashes (Miller, 2011). If one is young and well-educated that might seem just fine but for the poor and the elderly, it is a very frightening vision.
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Then there is the vision in which America is on the verge of being overrun by the hoards of angry Muslims who wish us all dead, at least according to Herman Cain (Friedersdorf, 2011). This apocalyptic narrative is very useful if one wants to support their primary financial contributors, the defense contractors. Keeping the people trembling in terror from an imaginary threat is far better than dealing with real threats as the voters approach the gates of the citadel with their pitchforks in hand. Having the media pundits sow disdain upon the potential pitchfork bearers in Zuccotti Park reflects their desire to cast blame on anyone but those responsible for the nightmare that has descended upon America (Media Matters, 2011). The great disappointment for America has become President Obama. Instead of championing the rights of those in need and a suffering generation, he has engaged in appeasement with those that would strip the floors down to the bare concrete (Broyles, 2011). When dealing with an opponent bound and determined to take whatever one offers, offering him or her anything will simply increase his or her voracious appetite. Appeasement is not an effective negotiating strategy as proven by Neville Chamberlain. The solutions President Obama offers focus on todays immediate problems but not tomorrows. America needs change from the ground up in that respect Ron Paul has some good points but not just an economic change, a political one, too. When asked most Americans would say, they desire a few key things: safe neighborhoods, good schools, a steady job, and to be left alone. That is a life, but it is not a future. The job of the President is to look beyond the immediate needs of the nation and provide a vision of where the nation will be 5 years, 10 years, or even 20 years from now. Without a roadmap for the future, America may as well be a train headed down the tracks oblivious to the dangers ahead barreling along at full speed without any brakes. Our leaders start unwinnable
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION wars, intentionally lie to the American people, take bribes from their favorite corporations (Salmon, 2011), and endlessly tell us what a great job they are doing individually. Unfortunately, that is not how big problems get solved, they get solved by leaders with vision,
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ones with passion, and determination (Roosevelt, 1932). Here are the words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932: In the years before 1929 we know that this country had completed a vast cycle of building and inflation; for ten years we expanded on the theory of repairing the wastes of the War, but actually expanding far beyond that, and also beyond our natural and normal growth. Now it is worth remembering, and the cold figures of finance prove it, that during that time there was little or no drop in the prices that the consumer had to pay, although those same figures proved that the cost of production fell very greatly; corporate profit resulting from this period was enormous; at the same time little of that profit was devoted to the reduction of prices. The consumer was forgotten. Very little of it went into increased wages; the worker was forgotten, and by no means an adequate proportion was even paid out in dividends--the stockholder was forgotten (Roosevelt, 1932, para. 19) Change the dates and those words could have been penned in 2009. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it and the Republican leadership would have us believe turning back the clock to the 1880s when monopolists rampaged across the nation will improve life for America, but it cannot. Allowing corporate greed to embrace our economy simply to increase jobs is a Faustian bargain with the people ever the losers.
Vision for Tomorrow
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Many Americans can relate to the Star Trek vision of the future. After decades of watching the series on television, it is almost difficult to imagine any other future for many Americans. A united world setting out to explore the
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universe, no more warring, no more poverty, a true socialist paradise. It is an inspiration for what could be but not very practical when faced with todays political realities, so stepping it back a bit, what can America become? The best way to solve a complex problem is to start at the solution one desires and work backwards. That may sound counterintuitive, and it is, but every decent planner knows that when one has a large project, one starts at the finish date and calculates the amount of time it will take to complete each step. After doing this one identifies areas of weakness, focuses on bringing them into line, or addresses them by expending additional resources. It is really quite simple, when one views a problem from the finish line and simply steps back through the various stages needed to arrive there. Now instead of focusing on an immediate solution that may create unintended consequences wreaking havoc upon ones fragile existence, each solution is part of a grand scheme with the ultimate prize, our nations future. Each of us is entitled to their own dreams and visions and no one persons dream should supersede anothers. That being said, when given the choice between throwing darts and trusting to luck or sketching out a rough plan of attack, the smart planner prefers paper and pencil, one can leave the darts at the bar. One vision that many others share is one where Americans live in harmony with nature. In point of fact this is a very old vision shared by our forebears Emerson
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION and Thoreau and it has been passed down generation-to-generation forming the genesis of the environmental movement in America today (Wells, 2008). Instead of being in conflict environmentalists desire collaboration with the natural elements. Rather than engage in flowery prose, providing a brief list of the components of this vision helps clarify a Green vision of tomorrow. To make this vision big hairy and audacious one must look forward to 2050 and identify what a desirable America may be like. A nonpetroleum-based pollution-free economy Gleaming urban centers free of crime with fast efficient transport Premier education system providing every student with the tools to succeed Inexpensive health care for all Americans Full-employment in meaningful jobs No racial hatred or bigotry Politicians responsive to the people An end to war as a diplomatic instrument Participatory democracy Weekend getaways on the moon and summers on Mars For some, football 24/7 A Zeitgeist vision of the future (http://www.thezeitgeistmovement.com/)
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These are just a few but very important ones and any one of these would be a reasonable medium-term goal but taken together, they become a vision, an inspiration for Americans to strive for. These goals do not require any special technology or new knowledge, just a commitment to change the circumstances that this nation faces and adapt its world to one that
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION achieves the greatness that it desires. Not everyone shares these ideals but America has a big tent, and it can fit everyones ideas underneath it. If these were worthy goals, and the nation wanted to achieve them, what would it take? Achieving Greatness
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Sometimes it is the simplest answers that are the best, but with a vast diversity of opinion dividing America, probably it will be more complicated than it needs to be. The most difficult challenge is the beginning, overcoming the initial inertia to get everyone working toward the same goal, often times that is usually the end of most great projects. To overcome inertia, Americans need a common reference point, something that will take the nation beyond the things that divide it. First, one needs to identify the various main groups and what objections they might have for this grand enterprise. After identifying each stakeholder, the next thing one does is develop an action plan. By establishing a series of benchmarks through backward planning to identify key points of success to continue to motivate people, a new American Business Plan (ABP) becomes a reality. Traditionally, politicians have scoffed at a National Business Plan calling it an attempt to impose communism on America. Typically, leaders from a neo-Liberal tradition believe in laissez-faire economics and policies depending on the free-market to provide the most efficient outcome. Of course this flies in the face of traditional business thinking because every major corporation in America operates by a business plan (Dunn & Chapman, 2008). One would think that what is good for business is good for the nation. In this case, ideology trumps common
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION sense and yet, candidates like Romney sells himself as a successful executive ready to run the
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country like a business and take the action needed to end its economic woes. It's a strategy that's helped him stay in front of the GOP pack through much of the race (Roche, 2011, p. 1). If one is going to run the nation like a business, where is the strategic plan that lays out the nations objectives, performance measurements, benchmarks, and SWOT analysis? A successful business would be mortified to attempt to manage a $15 trillion enterprise with 300 million stakeholders without a detailed business plan. Leaving the management of the nations economy in the invisible hands of no one is not only short-sighted and myopic but will inevitably lead to continued booms and busts punctuated with recessions and depressions. It is the equivalent of driving down a highway with ones lights turned off at night, wearing a blindfold, and drinking a fifth of whiskey. Inevitably, one will crash and it will only be by miracle if one survives it. Identifying Groups Within America, we have a variety of groups, each with their own personalities. There are the Greens, ever focused on solving climate change. Then there are progressives, more interested in improving social relationships. There are the neo-liberals, interested in restructuring our society. Whereas, there are the neo-conservatives bent on world domination. The Christian right desires to return our nation back to its Christian heritage that it never had. Finally, there is everybody else characterized as moderates, independents, or just frustrated by the whole process. To buy into this vision, each group must see a tangible benefit to allow them to compromise on principles. It cannot be a vision based on coercion, it must be a vision of embracement. As always, the biggest complaint will be, Who is going to pay for it? That is a fair question, and one that will be addressed in due course.
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The accountants will try to estimate the relative cost against the benefit. How does one place a value or quantify a way of life? One could total up military spending and compare the cost of continuing to fight losing wars against the cost of constructing a peaceful society. What are the health benefits of a chemical and pollution free environment? How does one value fullemployment or premier education unless one considers the net-present value and the expected return on investment. For some, it is a rather simple calculation. In their minds, doing anything else costs more than just achieving the dream. Anyone who has ever worked as a professional buyer understands the difference between price and value. Too often people simply look at the bare costs without considering the intangibles. A simple comparison is deciding whether to purchase a cheap Chinese mobile phone or an iPhone 5.0. They both make telephone calls but one costs infinitely more than the other. For some, owning an iPhone brings value whereas for others it is waste of scarce resources. As a nation, people must make value decisions all the time. Does the nation provide health care for those in need or does the nation leave them in the street? How much can America afford for this program versus that program? Unfortunately, when two sides cannot agree, they usually default to the lowest price because everyone can agree that saving money is the most important issue. Another relative issue is deciding the value of people in a society. In a capitalist society, compromises are made between the costs of people versus the profits that must be sacrificed. In a socialist society, all profits are sacrificed for the benefit of the people, however it is probably just as inefficient as sacrificing the people for maximized profits, the current situation facing the nation. Instead, a happy balance must be found between the two extremes, something I call progressive capitalism. Enough profit to motivate the greed gene within us but not so much that
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION the society develops gross inequalities. At the end of the day when one passes on, one cannot take ones money and no one will remember the profits that a person earned, only the way in which one lived his or her life in peoples memories. Free-Market Capitalism
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One of the most overused phrases in the American lexicon is the free-market. A free-market exists when there is perfect competition between buyer and seller. In a free-market, there are no excess profits, government regulation, buyers have maximum choices, and competitors can enter and exit markets at will (Strachan, 1998). What an intriguing idea and the reality that it does not exist anywhere in the world does not stop people from yearning for it (Chang, 2001). The funny thing is that despite lip service, no self-respecting capitalist
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org /pipa/images/apr08/Free_Markets_ April08_graph3.jpg
wants free-markets. Capitalists need scarcity and limited markets to increase profits (Smith, 1776). In essence, capitalists seek to limit competition,
control entry and exit with barriers, and maximize potential profits by creating shortages. Capitalism is about maximizing profit, not maximizing competition (Smith, 1776). Capitalism and free-markets are oxymoronic, and it is a simple exercise to prove. Consider any industry, whether it is the auto industry, the computer industry, or the education industry. There are usually significant barriers to entry, sometimes it is money, other
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION times it is government regulation, and yet other times it is technical knowledge. In a very
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microenvironment of market stands, one may approach a free-market environment but as soon as you scale up, one finds oligopolies (Strachan, 1998). When one listens to someone like Ron Paul touting the wonders of the free-market, one wants to shout, there is the dreamer, not the Greens. The Fortune 500 is never going to permit an open free-market because it would eviscerate quarterly earnings leading to the disemployment of all their CEOs. The only way to approach or mimic a free-market is through government interference and by definition; government interference is not a free-market. Some might characterize this vision as a socialist utopia on the order of the Zeitgeist movement or some socialist paradise. One must admit it has a certain allure but the reality of socialisms limitations are not fictional. Mises, a well-known Austrian economist, made a very poignant case for the limits of socialism and its inability to overcome the altruism deficit (Forgolou, 2000). In discussions with socialists over the years, it has become clear this issue is one that still plagues socialist proponents. Others complain that America will become too European in our governance and that European socialism is sclerotic and will pollute our great nation (Hayek, 1960; Wallace, 2004). Right now, it might be nice to be suffering from the employment problems in Germany. With barely 7% employment (Reuters, 2011), Germany is the wunderkind of the world. Now, if only they had dumped the Euro before Greece imploded, they could have avoided the economic tsunami about to crash in upon them (Reuters, 2011). In a speech earlier this year in Madison, Michael Moore characterized the wealth of the rich as communal property (2011). That is probably an over-simplification but consider America as a living being for a moment. All Americans share the same air, all Americans share the same economy, and all Americans have to work together at companies to produce the goods that earn
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION the money that pay American paychecks. If one takes any of those components out, the American manufacturing machine does not operate at optimum efficiency. If 400 families really do own more than half the nation (Moore, 2011), what would happen if they all left at the same time? Would the traffic lights stop working or the factories shutdown? Would the Earth stop turning on its axis or the banks stop cashing checks? The truth is other than messing up the American economy, those 400 families have as much influence on the comings and
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http://americanandproud. net/wp-content/uploads / 2011/03/Michael_Moore.j pg
goings of everyday Americans as flies do in a backyard barbecue. Sure, they own things and yes they can move markets but when the baby is coming, one has to go to the hospital. When the refrigerator is empty, one must go to market. When election time rolls around, Americans vote for another leader to replace the last one. Certainly, these people possess influence but they, the 1%, do not do the work, the rest of America, the 99%, do. The 1% simply profit from American labor; no labor, no profit. Depression Era Responses It might be nice if during President Roosevelts tenure, a simple solution for escaping financial malaise as the nation faces today had been divined. Some point to his make-work programs supported by another Austrian, Hayek, whereas others credit the Second World War. Roosevelt raised income taxes to dizzying new heights of 79% (Mitchell, 1996), which was probably not the smartest thing to do, but the war did have some influence because it created jobs as well as aggregate demand (Vernon, 1994). At the end of the war, people had been saving for so long that when the war ended, they were ready to splurge and a consumer boom ensued giving
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the nation a jumpstart to move beyond its previous economic malaise (Paul, 2011). The dilemma at present is how does America jumpstart its economy? What combination of programs will provide the same lift unleashing pent-up demand and boosting sustainable aggregate demand nationwide besides a war? How can the nation create 20 million new jobs in short-order without breaking the bank or should America even try? Some suggest that high-unemployment will be the new normal (Carpentier, 2010), instead they propose that Americans accept their impotence and move on with their lives.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_RPTAaOI4RN8/S8XdC4XMcHI/AAAAAAAAAvY/6HLcnShyhE/s320/topmarginalrates.bmp) The classic Keynesian response is to create jobs with government spending. Those are the make-work projects that tide over laid-off workers until new jobs become available. In an ordinary down-turn that normally works but this is not an ordinary down-turn (Feldstein, 2009). In every recession since the Second World War, housing has led the recovery followed by manufacturing. Under the principle of neo-classical economics a service is the same as a good
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so there are no requirements to maintain manufacturing as long as one looks only at value (Hall, 2008). Converting America to a service economy offered savings on consumer goods and improved agricultural export opportunities, however, it left the economy with one less engine. People may forego the use of services but when the refrigerator breaks down, one has to replace it. To continue economic growth under President Bush, Alan Greenspan, pushed rates lower encouraging the formation of a housing bubble (Thornton, n.d.). Chairman Bernanke continued in his footsteps and lowered banking reserve requirements as well as supported changes in regulations to promote home lending. The sub-prime lending fiasco is a direct result of the FEDs desire to extend the good times at the expense of common sense (Thornton, n.d.).
(http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/interest-rates-1950s.png)
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With the popping of the housing bubble in 2007, the economy began a downward spiral that it has yet to escape. Certainly there was a brief pick-up in activity in 2009 supported by stimulus spending but without a new dollop of funds to keep the party going or a bottoming out in the housing market, it became another example of a too little (Krugman, 2010), too late policy decision that has plagued the Obama administration (DaGuerre, 2011). Neo-classicists believe that only minor intervention is necessary to get an economy moving during a recession to avoid overshooting and bouncing back and forth between expansion and contraction. Unfortunately, the nation is not in a recession, it is in a depression (Cox, 2011) kept from becoming more severe by entitlement spending. There is the rub, cut entitlement spending and the economy will drop like a stone (New York Times, 2011).
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I8Je6FUeyaY/TGypLRiKVUI/AAAAAAAAACk/irlZm9VtppI/s400/ chart-of-the-day-effects-of-fiscal-stimulus-on-gdp-growth-2009-2011.jpg)
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To jump-start the economy, one must first clear out the cobwebs and other impediments to starting, namely the housing crisis. Without a concerted effort to stop housing prices from falling further, this economy will continue to move sideways or downwards (Kalita & Timiraos, 2011) mirroring the problems that Japan has faced for the past 20 years (Koo, 2011). Neoclassicists and their Republican sponsors (Blodget, 2011) refuse to accept the facts in front of them because it conflicts with their political ideology. For them, the idea that one must spend great sums of money to stimulate the economy is worse than the economy going nowhere. For the 20 million unemployed, that is cold comfort, most people find that eating ideology is a fairly unsatisfying experience. To further complicate matters, as house prices fall, more and more homeowners find their primary investment is now lower in value than the mortgage they owe on it (Kalita & Timiraos, 2011). The common term for this is underwater.
(http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/csnominal0706091-300x226.gif)
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In a falling market, one does not begin investing until the market reaches bottom. Home prices have fallen 33% on average (Streitfeld, 2011) with some extremes equal to 70% in specific markets. Prices are continuing to fall and they are unlikely to bottom out as long as the foreclosure rate continues to increase. Market prices are influenced by availability and demand. With more than enough houses on the market and no or little demand to buy homes, prices are definitely going down (Olick, 2011). In a controlled economy, the government would just set a floor and housing prices would stop falling in theory, banks would lend based on a government mandated price, and things might stabilize. In the American economy, one believes the invisible hands of the free-market always knows best and in the long-run the economy will find a more appropriate price level reflecting conditions (Zumbrun, 2011). At this point, depending on Caspar the Ghost to manage $15 trillion in assets seems a little foolish. Possibly, Caspar could use a nudge to get him moving in the right direction or a helping hand.
(http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452403c69e20134878c464d970c-800wi)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Industry Commitments Employing laissez-faire economics limits the ability of government planners to support
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key industries and companies. There was tremendous criticism for propping up General Motors during the economic crisis but there are times where saving a million jobs is more important than ideological purity (Economist, 2010). That does not mean that every zombie company should be rescued but to avoid large-scale disruption in the economy, one needs to be flexible. Within the economy, there are key industries and key companies that must be supported. Obviously, the Obama Administration decided the banking industry was one of those key industries (La Roche, 2011). This analysis maintains that companies engaged in clean-energy and renewable-energy are additional companies requiring government intervention from time to time to prevent a loss of key technologies and skills. The space industry is a second one that requires occasional support because the technologies are critical to the nations future development. Oil, coal, and gas are ones that the nation must consider essential because of the role they play in managing the economy and meeting our international obligations on climate change. Finally, key resources such as rare earths, uranium mining, as well as key materials used in manufacturing require the government to step in at times to assist a company, take control of the company, or shut it down. Government intervention has had mixed results and it should not be used to prop-up uncompetitive businesses but should be used to protect jobs during economic downturns (OECD, 1991). As part of a further commercial analysis a list of critical a list of key technologies and related companies will be compiled, and included in a watch-report for business. This analysis will also offer import protection to start-ups in key industries to afford them the time necessary, normally five years, to reach market acceptance for their products without the unscrupulous
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interference by foreign companies seeking to monopolize industries at the expense of American workers (Meehan, 2011). Typically, the restructured SBA will give preference to employeeowned companies. Finally, when necessary the government reserves the right to step in and demand the break-up of companies that are deemed monopolists or too big to fail. When companies create moral hazards for the economy and community, it is the governments role to rebalance the economic climate. In a recent interview Dallas Fed Bank President Fisher called for the break of big banks (Reuters, November 15). America cannot support a banking industry with banks that are too big to fail. These banks should he nationalized to prevent moral hazard or broken up into smaller entities (Kellerman, 2010). However, America is not the only nation facing banking hazards.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-929qcv6hv_8/TppH5v7tZiI/AAAAAAAAE2U/oAFYS8APrE/s320/bankassetsaspercgdp.PNG)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Competition with China and India We have a general concern with the treatment of workers in China and India including
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average wages, work safety, right to organize, pension and health benefits, and work rules. Both countries are becoming a larger part of the global economy and their current practices are distorting the ability of American companies to compete on a level-playing field. This distortion has resulted in American companies fleeing the US and setting up factories overseas to avoid working conditions as well as pollution regulations (ITC, 2004) that all Americans take for granted. This action has resulted in the hollowing out of our cities, an inability to reverse the current economic decline, a substantial reduction in our tax base, and an increase in our current account deficit. Until this situation is remedied to the satisfaction of all parties, we propose suspending the WTO agreement until these issues are negotiated and if unsuccessful, withdrawal fully from the treaty in 2015 at the next five-year anniversary.
(http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/4dfbc4c949e2ae0c27080000/chart.png)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION A major complaint leveled against China is their currency management to promote
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Chinese exports (Morrison & LaBlonte, 2011). Many pundits in America claim this is good for America because Americans benefit from artificially cheap prices on Chinese goods. However, this distortion results in fewer companies being able to compete with Chinese companies, a loss of jobs in the US, a loss of skilled workers such as engineers, and a build up of dollar denominated debt in a foreign country. This situation is not sustainable long-term (Morrison & LaBlonte, 2011) and eventually when China seeks to recover dollars owed to it, it will put tremendous pressure on the US economy if those dollars are dumped into the market. A dollar strained economy would require massive cuts in government spending as well as a reduction in the standard of living for all Americans when interest rates are forced to rise dramatically. Eventually, the trade will need to be balanced and it will not balance in the US favor.
(http://louisvilleky.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/U.S.-China-Trade-Figures-2000-2010.bmp)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION To offset this currency problem, the FED has attempted to push the dollar lower.
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Unfortunately, each time the dollar falls, central bankers around the world adjust their currencies to match changes in the dollar resulting in every nation resorting to the printing press to maintain exports. President Obama famously declared in his State of the Union in January 2010, that America would double its exports demonstrating how far out of touch the US administration is (Cooper, 2010). Without a lower currency, that is an impossible task to achieve and only marginal increases in exports will occur until the world economy grows and US volumes grow with it. Continued weakness in the Eurozone and export oriented policies in Japan and the BRICs prevents an export led expansion. Discovering a way around this barrier is one task that bears consideration.
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(http://reports.gildemeister.com/system/assets/0000/2130/exchange-rate-movements-euro-inrelation-to-us-dollar_-yen-and-renminbi.gif?1312456477) Details of Infrastructure and Job Creation Strategy There are five primary areas of spending that we will concentrate on. First, we are setting aside $2 trillion in spending over a three-year period for roads and bridge repairs. This will create about 8 million jobs around the nation for a period of three-years. These jobs will need to be replaced by private sector opportunities at the end of the three-year period. Should it become necessary, a smaller package of $500 billion will be employed to continue the stimulus efforts after the three-year initial program has expired. The second major program is the space technology investment program totaling $750 billion over eight years. This program will create 350,000 jobs directly and it is estimated that another 2 million jobs over the eight-year period as new companies begin operations to take advantage of the governments directed investments. This program has a secondary benefit of supporting a large pool of engineers that would be available for other manufacturing efforts. The third major area of investment relates to the energy sector where this analysis plans to allocate $600 billion over a five-year period. This program will create another 500,000 jobs nationwide during the construction phase and about one million permanent jobs
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION long-term. The plan to construct a DC transmission system enables the nation to locate power
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plants and energy-based companies throughout the continent allowing remote areas to benefit as much as large urban centers diversifying the employment in rural areas as well. This program is essential to meeting our vision of a carbon-emissions free energy sector and its cost is our investment in the future. To convert the nations transportation network to a modern safe system of transport, this plan calls for the construction of a high-speed (300 mph) rail (HSR) system enabling transport between New York and Los Angeles in less than 24 hours with connections linking 10 major urban centers including Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Orlando, Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, and Chicago. There will be three north-south corridors and two east-west corridors providing fast safe efficient travel. Currently, air travel produces 9% of carbon emissions in the US (EPA, 2006) and the nation has tentatively committed to reducing air travel related emissions by 40% by 2040 (WCR, 2011). This project will result in the creation of 1.5 million jobs over the 10year period. Any jobs lost in air-travel will be recreated in the HSR program as service positions move from one industry to the other.
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(http://terraverde.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/730_ushsr_national_mapsm.jpg?w=300&h=194) Another major investment sector is in education. This program includes increasing the number of minority teachers by 250,000 individuals above the current number of teachers. Further, this program targets one million unemployed minorities for educational support to encourage them to return to school and finish their studies to prepare them for university. These two programs will cost roughly $100 billion over the five-year period. An additional $400 billion is allocated for educational support and block grants during this period which will create 500,000 new jobs. To support other industries and manufacturers in telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and non-space related technologies, this analysis proposes another $250 billion during the fiveyear budget period. These will primarily consist of loan guarantees to open new factories and manufacturing centers to create business opportunities to return offshore factories back to the US mainland. Additionally, $500 billion is allocated for the construction of five-new world-class ultra-modern urban centers. Creating Jobs To overcome the same problems as Japan, America needs a different kind of stimulus program than traditional Keynesian economics calls for. As mentioned previously, neoclassicists consider services and goods to be interchangeable, they also consider government
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION spending to be equal whether it is for investment purposes or general operations because total spending will not change (Hall, 2008). This makes accounting sense but not common sense.
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Anyone who takes care of a household budget will tell you it is better to own that to rent. When the government invests in productive capacities, it eventually will receive a return on that investment. It may not be a market return or it might require additional subsidies or investment dollars, but ultimately, it makes sense to invest in productive capacities rather than just pay salaries (Pollack, 2011). The neo-classicists retort that that is the job of the free-market and that the government is terrible at picking winners and losers (Azizonomics, 2011). Of course that discounts the fact that 9 out of 10 businesses fail in the first 5 years or that large businesses routinely go bankrupt causing large losses for shareholders. That is the same song neoclassicists have been singing for decades without providing any substantive proof.
(http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/7/8/55488-124710866490917-Darrel-Whitten.png)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION When one looks at the free-market it is more survival of the luckiest than it is about picking winners and losers. If as many say, nine out of ten businesses will fail in the first five years, picking winners is about stamina. The government does not have the luxury to wait
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around for decades to determine which products, companies, or industries will be winners. It has to make political compromises based on the facts on the ground. Admittedly, preferences are given or granted to friends of politicians who try to twist the system to their benefit, but that is not the governments fault, but the fault of our elected representatives. Even if the government is wrong 50% of the time, that is still better than the free-market, which operates at 10%. At times, the government is the only one that can pick winners, especially in very large projects that are too risky for ordinary investors (Li, 2011). To decide which investments to make, the government must look at the distribution of the workforce, potential opportunities, and the political realities. Would infrastructure repair and improvements be more suitable for the workforce or factories? Would scholarships to university pay greater dividends or increasing the size of the military? To decide, the government must find a balance between short-term issues and long-term returns. Fixing roads and bridges are short-term projects that do not create permanent jobs. If on the one hand, the expectation is that the nation needs a short-term spike in employment, then this type of work is suitable. If on the other hand, there is an expectation that a long-term position will be needed, then the government must begin to think about factories, mining/resource exploitation, or long-term construction projects. Currently, there are $2 trillion in projects waiting (Gallen, 2011; Carlson, 2011). Here is an OECD long-term development plan that goes to 2030 (OECD, 2005). In any stimulus plan that we craft, we need to do both because constructing a factory will impact one regional area and general repair of infrastructure can take place in countless areas.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Ideally, we need to allocate about 50% to each area or create roughly 10 million short-term
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positions lasting up to 36 months and 10 million long-term positions lasting up to 10 years. This allows investors to identify profit opportunities during the first three-years based on the longterm investments and a ready workforce to meet the needs of investors. Both the Republicans and the Democrats propose continued deficit spending of $11 trillion over the next 10 years (Ryan, 2011). Our proposal allocates $5 trillion of those funds for a stimulus program to create new jobs, not maintain the existing ones. This money will come from these funds not from any new deficit spending. The primary difference is the timing of the spending.
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/10/21/business/21economist-tyson1/21economisttyson1-blog480.jpg)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Current estimates that the nation must spend $2 trillion on repairs to roads, bridges, water-processing plants, and other utilities (Gallen, 2011). This spending would occur over a three-year period and at the end of the third year, America will have repaired its roads and bridges something the nation was going to have to do anyhow. The other $3 trillion will be allocated for long-term projects in several key areas: space technologies, clean-energy, highspeed rail, and new urban centers. In all four areas, there is little or no possibility of a competitive issue with China or any other developing country regarding imports or exports. These are areas where American companies can be the primary contractor, and all work
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performed by Americans. These key industries lend themselves well to attract key investment by private investors leveraging the governments initial seed money. Space Technology The American space program is a shell of its former self. Plagued by cost overruns and Congressional micromanagement NASA has been unable to maintain Americas strategic position in the industry (Cima, 2011; Kramer & Chang, 2011). America is now forced to bargain for seats on Russian rockets and watch helplessly as China leapfrogs ahead. This is not just about maintaining dominance but maintaining key technological leadership for our entire economy. With engineers deserting America by the 10s of thousands to work in factories in Asia, America is losing its knowledge capital just as fast as its leadership position is being eclipsed by the Chinese and India (Lynley, 2011). However, despite NASAs many years of success, we are not recommending giving them more money. Instead, we recommend shrinking NASA to the function of a space FAA and instead awarding contracts to proven suppliers of cost effective space transportation systems to initiate new missions (Pappalardo, 2011). Specifically, we envision constructing a permanent Moon base with a contingent of miners, scientists, and
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION workers to explore the Moon, produce commercial quantities of Helium 3 for fusion reactors,
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develop new material sciences for construction of space faring equipment, and the transportation support to develop tourism (Williams, 2007).
(http://images.spaceref.com/news/2005/FalconChart2.gif) The Moon is an open vista with all the potential of an unexplored continent and unique conditions to provide alternative manufacturing facilities. With companies like Space X driving down launch costs, producing, and developing rockets based on economies of scale, going to the Moon on a daily basis can become a reality (Thompson, 2011). Establishing habitats on the Moon provides the insurance and confidence for companies to develop business plans to exploit
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION these facilities and leverage them for their own benefit yielding new employment demands for the long-term (Foust, 2006). Further, cheaper rocket costs will enable us to launch huge solar-
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panel installations in the sky to transmit electricity back to Earth 24/7 instead of only during the 8 to 10 hours of sunlight each day (Hadhazy, 2009). This will dramatically alter the efficiency concerns and provide clean-renewable energy for national consumption. These two projects alone could employ 500,000 workers for the next 10 years. Ideally, we could return to the Moon in as little as three years (Spaceports, 2011). The next big space project is Mars. Instead of sending a few astronauts to walk around and plant the flag, we begin construction of a colony. Once we change the economics from plans to send astronauts and return them, trips to Mars get dramatically cheaper (Klotz, 2010; Chow, 2010). Once astronauts arrive, they can begin to produce many of the products that they would normally have to bring with them in a round-trip severely limiting the time for science and raising launch costs (Chow, 2010). By constructing a colony, we need to provide them with the seeds necessary to grow the initial crops and the hydroponics units to support them. Air can be produced from the Martian atmosphere and water from the frozen tundra (Chow, 2010). Eventually, a fuel production unit could be sent there for astronauts to produce sufficient fuel for a return trip ( Hepp, Landis & Kubiak, n.d.) and 10 or 15 years later, astronauts can begin returning to Earth if they choose to do so. Imagine all the commercial opportunities that entrepreneurs can dream up from this one activity alone. The possibilities are endless and the demand will be enormous. Investing in space technologies now provides a path to realize the vision set forth in the beginning. It will provide America with new stronger lighter materials (Europa, 2003), new resources to develop in other worlds (Valentine, 2002) without the competitive issues currently
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face by the nation, and a vision that people can point to and say with pride, Americans did that. Without a sustained investment to develop the commercial potential of the moon, it is certain that China will (Beauford, 2011). Is America really ready to surrender space leadership along with the commercial opportunities that the moon presents? This campaign recommends investing $750 billion over an 8 year period to support these activities and provide the seed money for what many believe will provide 10s of trillions of dollars in annual productivity in the future. High-Speed Rail There has been more talk about High-Speed Rail (HSR) over the past several years with President Obama allocating $10 billion in his stimulus plan. This is a nominal amount and represents test-bed projects. To be effective, the nation needs to commit at least 10 times that amount per year for 20 years. At first blush, that seems like a tremendous investment for the nation with little immediate requirement. Keeping in mind that the US invested trillions(OMB, 2010) in its air transport system over the past 50 years, HSR provides one thing that continued investment in air transport cannot, immediate and permanent reductions in carbon emissions. Currently, aircraft produce 9% of manmade carbon emissions (EPA, 2006). With air transport expected to double over the next 20 years, the emissions would nearly double as well offsetting all the reductions made in electricity generation. To tackle this problem, the nation requires true high-speed trains. To make a HSR network cost effective, the network requires DC power. This interrelates with the power plant development and the DC transmission program proposed earlier. In a freemarket, individual companies could choose to build projects that have a direct benefit. These types of projects that offer cross-benefits are unattainable for the average company or even the very biggest ones without pre-guaranteed contracts or government loan guarantees. To
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION encourage corridor development, the nation will create a subdivision within the Department of Transportation to design, award construction contracts employing government guarantees, and oversee the construction of a new nationwide HSR network. The network will create a large hub and spoke system in the central part of the nation between the Rockies and the Appalachian Mountains. There will be two spurs each going out from the main central hub toward both coasts and then two coastal routes connecting the major
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metropolitan areas. Unlike the trains operating between Boston and Washington, these trains will travel at upwards of 300 mph. To encourage commuters to switch to the high-speed network, airport expansion will be limited across the nation. Design considerations will include constructing the main rails from new carbon material processes to reduce maintenance and limit the demands on steel reserves worldwide. It is expected that this will be an American project employing American laborers, and constructing the rails and railcars in American factories. Engaging foreign companies as partners will be acceptable for the design and development phases but the expectation is that all manufacturing will be done in the US.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/91xx/doc9135/Figure2.gif)
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This chart highlights government spending in infrastructure over the past 50 years. Once can clearly see the preference for automotive transport over rail. It is time to adjust the spending to maintenance for automotive and new capacities in rail. New Urban Centers Earlier a new high-density urban center was proposed for the tri-state region of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming with the intention of housing 25 million people. Over the next 40 years, Americas population will grow by 100 million people. It is impractical to house all of these people in sprawling suburbs that cover the land like a blight. High-density urban centers are more energy efficient than vast suburbs and acres of parking lots (Adler, 2011). Instead we propose the construction of four more urban centers over the next 20 years along the new HSR corridor. Specifically, we propose a site near Kentucky in the coal-mining region, one in Alabama, one in New Mexico, and one near Sioux City. These four areas with the addition of the tri-state one are relatively low in population and historically underdeveloped. Land is reasonably priced and resources plentiful with the exception of water in New Mexico. One of the primary reasons New Mexico was chosen is that a large portion of new immigrants will be coming from Mexico and with the establishment of a major space-port in Las Cruces, New Mexico will become a popular destination point with significant demands for new industries and commercial enterprises. Rather than developing this new region haphazardly, providing a large metropolitan area with planned infrastructure will lower the cost for everyone and avoid resource depletion or regional resource disputes. Specifically, water will need to be piped 500 miles from coastal sources and desalinated in the Arizona desert for distribution to Phoenix and this new city near Las Cruces. The water in New Mexico has too high a saline
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content for general use and processing it will create some localized environmental hazards, hence we propose seawater as an alternative (USGS, n.d.) To enhance each the commercial viability of each city, specific manufacturing and processing centers will be constructed and supported to insure a stable economy free from the excesses of normal free-markets. The Colorado tri-state project will be designed around petrochemicals and the by-products of that industry. Las Cruces will develop as a headquarters and manufacturing center for the new space industry leveraging its position as a space-port. Kentucky will concentrate on coal-gasification, steel milling, and industrial carbon manufacturing. Alabama will concentrate on agricultural based products and supplying hydroponically grown foods nationwide. Finally, the Sioux City location will become a new national capital located on the borders of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa. This new capital will reflect the futuristic vision of Americans leaving the former capital to remain as a tourist center. A new America requires a new capital with a capital building designed for a nation of 400 million instead of one designed for a nation of 20 million. It is true that Washington has served as our capital for the past 210 years, however, it is more steeped in history than it is a practical location for the center of American government. It was chosen as the site for a new American nation by Washington as much as being in the center of the new nation as being close to Virginia. Moving it to the center of the nation serves three purposes: first, it provides a boost to the economy by creating jobs; second, it changes the atmosphere of the nation by modernizing America (Schatz, 2003); and third; it becomes more defensible away from the coastlines from seaborne missiles and coastal inundation from rising seas.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION These development projects will touch on 35 different states bringing needed
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development money and encouraging Congressional support for the projects. Additional projects for space technologies and clean-energy will touch on another 6 states providing a needed boost for state revenues from the new business activities. Only the smaller states in the North East and a few along the Gulf coast are left out of the development program. A further discussion regarding the value of these urban centers takes place in Appendix IV. Stimulus Program Without going into a dissertation on economics, a stimulus program is when the government spends money on public works, infrastructure, or other public activities to create temporary jobs until the economy restarts. Unfortunately, the Japanese have been doing this for decades and their economy continues to stand still (CNBC, 2009). A simple stimulus program is not going to work in our case either because not all government spending is equal just as not all taxes are equal (Krugman, 2010). To differentiate traditional Keynesian economics, for the sake of discussion, this analysis will use the appellation of Keynes 2.0. Keynes 2.0 is a refinement of ordinary Keynesian economics promoting solutions that allocate more weight to policies that influence activity disproportionately. Tax Policies There are two specific tenets of Keynes 2.0. The first is that taxes levied on the poor have a greater impact than taxes on the rich (Diamond & Saez, 2011). This is a well-known and undisputed fact but it is often not a primary consideration for policy makers who prefer a notion of fairness based on over simplistic analogies. Specifically, policy makers that call for a flatter fairer tax regime ignore the net cost of the tax policy to the taxpayer focusing instead on the percentage amount. Many policy makers say it is unfair to tax wealthier citizens progressively
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because it places a greater burden on them. Often times, they are practicing political economics based on a starve the beast theology (Krugman, 2003). The short answer is they have greater wealth and so must contribute more to society. If the society were organized around fixed percentages equalizing everyones cost burden then a tax based on fixed percentages would be appropriate as well. For example, if everyone were charged 20% of income for rent, 10% of income for food, 5% of income for education, and 15% of income for retirement, then a flat tax of 9, 15, or 20% would be appropriate. When costs are based on fixed amounts that absorb most of a low-income individuals salary, then the ability to pay a flat tax becomes a greater burden (Diamond & Saez, 2011). The second primary consideration is the effect on the economic equation. When one considers the economic equation: Income = Consumption + Savings/Investments + Taxes, one understands that if 100% of an individuals income is consumed, then any increase in taxes must reduce personal consumption. Neo-classicists get around this problem by pointing out that government consumes for the individual so total consumption does not change but behavior does. Only one with a very narrow vision would equate government consumption as equal consumption to an individuals consumption (Krugman, 2011 December 26). Instead, the Austrians have it correct when they point out that individuals will change their behavior and one is not mutually substitutable for the other in outcomes. Where Austrian economics does not adequately explain the phenomena is the resulting action by groups. Whereas, people do make individual decisions, they do it together. To further consider the impact of a flat-tax on a high-income consumer, the high-income consumer will transfer the tax savings that a flat-tax offers to savings/investments. The highincome consumer may change consumption behavior but the marginal utility of the additional
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION funds lacks the same marginal utility of the first dollars earned resulting in the majority of the savings going into the bank. Jobs are created by demands from ordinary consumers not by tax cuts (Blodgett, 2011, December).
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(http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/4e1c5b08ccd1d50779000000/us-income-tax-topbracket.jpg) The neo-classicists argue that the new savings will chase the greatest returns with some funds invested in the stock market, other funds used to create new companies or expand existing ones, and some will be used to create jobs. At the margin, these are all true statements, however, what happens when the investment interest rate is zero?
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION When the interest rate is zero, there is no incentive to invest in bonds with maturities greater than three to six months (Bernanke & Blinder, 1988; Sissoko, Zemedkun,& Kamiru,
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2011). The only direction for interest rates to go is up, resulting in a loss to the bondholder unless the bond is held to maturity. In that case, there is an opportunity cost of holding the bond that supersedes the advantages of investing in non-cash instruments. Companies finance expansions with debt from either banks or the corporate bond markets. Banks lend on asset values and cash flow. Cash flow depends on profits and expectations. Changing the individual tax rate will produce more liquidity in the market but it does not produce more profits. This liquidity could be inflationary pushing up asset values and create expectations of more profits in real estate or the stock market but not in the general economy (Sissoko, Zemedkun,& Kamiru, 2011). If housing prices are falling, any inflationary expectations caused by the increase in liquidity are ignored. All a tax cut does for the high-income earners is increase the cash balances at the banks (Blodgett, 2011, December). There is little or no trickledown effect to the general economy.
(http://www.wtffinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/399_growth-federal-spendingrevenue-600.jpg)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION When the government borrows money to finance a deficit, those funds come out of the savings/investment pool and move over to consumption. When this deficit is used to finance
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entitlements, these payments act as a subsidy for the poor directly increasing consumption. This is the negative relationship of deficit spending. Borrowing money to increase consumption provides short-term stimulus but eventually the government must repay the debt or raise taxes and reduce the stimulus causing a decline in growth (Coga, Cwik, Taylor, & Wieland, 2009). Entitlement programs must be financed by non-deficit spending better known as taxes to prevent the future problem of having to dramatically cut consumption when it is not particularly convenient. Unfortunately, the budget is often commingled and funds allocated by various programs become entangled and it confuses the electorate regarding exactly what they are paying for. During short-term downturns, it makes perfect sense to continue to finance entitlements to smooth out the valleys and peaks (Pakko, 2009). The US Congress has been willing to spend during downturns but except for two-years during the Clinton administration unwilling to use the peaks to pay down accumulated debt. This is where traditional Keynesianism fails to predict real-world behavior.
(http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2009/a/images/Fig2a.gif)
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To insure that excess funds collected during economic peaks go to debt reduction many states establish a reserve or rainy day fund. The US Government can follow the same principle by mandating excess taxes collected be used to reduce the deficit before any tax cut could be implemented. Whereas, many economists point to the ability of the Federal Reserve to simply print money and eliminate the debt if need be, there is an expectation by the voters and international institutions that America will not print its way out of financial difficulties. Recognizing that actions that influence behavior determine economic outcomes is essential to making Keynesian policies work in the real world. Policy makers cannot pick and choose which part of an economic theory they like and ignore the other parts because it does not coincide with their political ideology. The Earth revolves every 24 hours from morning until night and 365.25 days a year around the sun. Wishing it were different does not make it so. The same rules apply to economics and peoples behavior. A flat tax sounds fair but its application is not. It will result in a decrease of personal consumption and an increase in bank balances providing no stimulus to the economy (Coga, Cwik, Taylor, & Wieland, 2009) and causing additional pain and misery resulting in a negative growth in GDP. In the long-term, it may result in a better allocation of funds and tax policy but if the nation never gets there, then what the policy may do in the long-run is irrelevant. One can only look out three years for tax policy to understand the impact it will have on the immediate economic reality. The same is true for driving a car, too much gas and one loses control of the car, too little gas and it takes forever to achieve the desired outcomes. A flat-tax is the equivalent of stomping on the brakes. Others propose a less progressive flatter tax policy with significant changes between brackets which would make sense if there were layers of income. If people typically make
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION $40,000 a year, or $100,000 a year, or $200,000 a year, then bracketing income around these points of conversion adds some predictability. If in fact, there is no stratification of income, a
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flatter tax policy affects decision-making and pushes people just below the next bracket to push off income to avoid the much higher marginal tax. This limits income generating activities that might otherwise take place. For example, if one suggests a 5%, 15%, 25% type bracketing tax regime, there is a substantial penalty to move up to the next bracket and at the margin, the tax payer will choose to defer the income to the future. That is the primary reason why taxpayers object to bracket creep caused by inflation and demand brackets reflect actual inflation. A tax policy should minimize potential behavioral responses by employing small changes to tax brackets over smaller changes in income. In 1954 under President Eisenhower, the nation had the most progressive tax structure in its history and one of the best economic performances. A gradual return to that system may not yield the same results but it will help solve the deficit problem. In 1954, there were 24 brackets ranging from 20% to 91% with each bracket either 3 or 4% higher. The bottom income rate was $2,000 and the top income rate was $200,000. To listen to Republicans, one would think progressives were trying to murder their children when they talk about taxation. We propose a similar tax structure although one with not as high a tax rate as the Eisenhower years. We believe that all deductions should be eliminated and an individuals tax calculated based on direct income. This eliminates the subsidy for housing that helped drive the mortgage crisis and the benefits to states with high income taxes over states with low income taxes. With Medicare for All, there will no longer be a need to claim health coverage exemptions. Finally, since most spouses work and families are dual income, we believe that
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each individual should file his or her own tax return. Without a dependent deduction, there is no need to worry about households. Here is a table from 2009 with bracket breakdowns:
Tax Chart - 2009 Incomes Number of Returns (1) Size of Adjusted Gross Income All returns No adjusted gross income $1 under $5,000 $5,000 under $10,000 $10,000 under $15,000 $15,000 under $20,000 $20,000 under $25,000 $25,000 under $30,000 $30,000 under $40,000 $40,000 under $50,000 $50,000 under $75,000 $75,000 under $100,000 $100,000 under $200,000 $200,000 under $500,000 $500,000 under $1,000,000 $1,000,000 under $1,500,000 $1,500,000 under $2,000,000 $2,000,000 under $5,000,000 $5,000,000 under $10,000,000 $10,000,000 or more 140,494,127 2,511,925 10,447,635 12,220,335 12,444,512 11,400,228 10,033,887 8,662,392 14,371,647 10,796,412 18,694,893 11,463,725 13,522,048 3,195,039 492,568 108,096 44,273 61,918 14,322 8,274 7,626,430,723 -198,958,452 27,218,608 92,407,278 155,465,805 199,017,560 225,167,737 237,994,230 499,879,773 483,088,798 1,149,068,817 990,337,913 1,801,446,897 905,347,402 332,037,478 130,149,237 76,148,200 182,986,391 97,493,167 240,133,885 865,948,271 85,376 40,278 379,851 848,075 2,516,274 4,669,410 6,827,564 20,151,883 25,404,274 77,962,073 80,492,622 212,290,589 176,322,148 80,458,186 32,755,871 19,393,235 46,943,489 24,617,005 53,790,072 10,575 22,350 131 200 294 517 1,007 1,483 2,101 3,031 4,740 7,326 15,873 55,475 164,233 304,944 440,605 762,877 1,729,208 6,551,008 11.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% 4.0% 5.3% 6.8% 8.1% 11.8% 19.5% 24.2% 25.2% 25.5% 25.7% 25.2% 22.4% Total Income (3) Total Tax Paid (14) Average Tax (20) Average Tax Rate
(http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/indtaxstats/article/0,,id=96981,00.html) We propose a progressive tax structure based on 7 brackets with the intention of remaining revenue neutral except for the top bracket. For the top bracket, we propose a 10% surcharge for five years that will expire at the end of five years to help the nation get through its current difficulties. That translates to an additional $106 billion per year or $530 billion over five years. Here is our proposed chart:
Tax Chart - 2009 Incomes Number of Returns Total Income Total Tax Paid Average Tax Average Tax Rate Proposed Tax Rate Estimated Tax Collected Change in Receipts
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No Adjusted Gross $1 under $20,000 $20,000 under $40,000 $40,000 under $75,000 $75,000 under $100,000 $100,000 to$200,000 $200,000 to $500,000 $500,000 or more Sub-Totals Surcharge on $500,000+ Grand Total
2,511,925 46,512,710 33,067,926 29,491,305 11,463,725 13,522,048 3,195,039 729,451 140,494,12 9
-198,958,452 474,109,251 963,041,740 1,632,157,615 990,337,913 1,801,446,897 905,347,402 1,058,948,358 7,626,430,724 1,058,948,358 7,626,430,724
85,376 3,784,478 31,648,857 103,366,347 80,492,622 212,290,589 176,322,148 257,957,858 865,948,275
22,350 1,142 4,591 7,771 7,326 15,873 55,475 9,952,875 11.4%
-0.04% 0.80% 3.29% 6.33% 8.13% 11.78% 19.48% 24.36%
N/A 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 8.0% 13.5% 20.5% 27.5% 12.1% 10.0% 13.5%
0 0 28,891,252 97,929,457 79,227,033 243,195,331 185,596,217 291,210,798 926,050,089 105,894,836 1,031,944,925
(85,376) (3,784,478) (2,757,605) (5,436,890) (1,265,589) 30,904,742 9,274,069 33,252,940 60,101,814 105,894,836 165,996,650
Based on initial projections our plan will provide a tax break for 123 million tax filers/families. The specific rates for each bracket will need to be reevaluated by the GAO to account for dual income filers and rates may need to be adjusted up or down to maintain our revenue objectives. However, we believe these numbers approximate what we will present to Congress for their approval. To help the reader understand the differences between our proposal and those presented by other candidates, we have included two additional tables.
Tax Chart - 2009 Incomes Flat Tax of 9% No Adjusted Gross $1 under $20,000 $20,000 under $40,000 $40,000 under $75,000 $75,000 under $100,000 $100,000 to $200,000 $200,000 to $500,000 $500,000 or more Totals Number of Returns 2,511,925 46,512,710 33,067,926 29,491,305 11,463,725 13,522,048 3,195,039 729,451 140,494,12 9 Total Income -198,958,452 474,109,251 963,041,740 1,632,157,615 990,337,913 1,801,446,897 905,347,402 1,058,948,358 7,626,430,724 Total Tax Paid 85,376 3,784,478 31,648,857 103,366,347 80,492,622 212,290,589 176,322,148 257,957,858 865,948,289 Average Tax 22,350 1,142 4,591 7,771 7,326 15,873 55,475 9,952,875 0 Average Tax Rate 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 6.3% 8.1% 11.8% 19.5% 24.4% 11.4% Proposed Tax Rate 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.7% Estimated Tax Collected 0 0 86,673,757 146,894,185 89,130,412 162,130,221 81,481,266 95,305,352 661,615,193 Change in Receipts (85,376) (3,784,478) 55,024,900 43,527,838 8,637,790 (50,160,368) (94,840,882) (162,652,506) (204,333,082)
(Herman Cain 9-9-9 Plan) The Herman Cain flat tax of 9%, not including the sales tax would lower income taxes for everyone making $100,000 or more as well as those making less than $22,000. That puts the
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION entire tax increase burden on the middle class. The Cain plan eliminates some taxes on capital gains and treats some things differently so the results would be slightly different but this chart provides a fair analysis of what people can expect. When one includes the 9% sales tax in the calculations, it becomes more complicated because different income earners consume different
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amounts of income. However, for the middle-class, they will definitely pay an additional 5% to 7% of income in taxes and those earning between $100,000 and $200,000 may face only a 3% to 5% increase in taxes with income earners of $200,000 or more receiving a tax cut. People with incomes of $200,000 or more would be foolish not to support the Cain plan. A second flat-tax proposal was offered by the Perry Campaign of a 20% flat-tax and the tax payer chooses the best option:
Tax Chart - 2009 Incomes Flat Tax of 20% No Adjusted Gross $1 under $20,000 $20,000 under $40,000 $40,000 under $75,000 $75,000 under $100,000 $100,000 to $200,000 $200,000 to $500,000 $500,000 or more Totals Number of Returns 2,511,925 46,512,710 33,067,926 29,491,305 11,463,725 13,522,048 3,195,039 729,451 0 Total Income -198,958,452 474,109,251 963,041,740 1,632,157,615 990,337,913 1,801,446,897 905,347,402 1,058,948,358 7,626,430,727 Total Tax Paid 85,376 3,784,478 31,648,857 103,366,347 80,492,622 212,290,589 176,322,148 257,957,858 865,948,289 Average Tax 22,350 1,142 4,591 7,771 7,326 15,873 55,475 9,952,875 0 Average Tax Rate 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 6.3% 8.1% 11.8% 19.5% 24.4% 11.4% Proposed Tax Rate 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 6.3% 8.1% 11.8% 19.5% 20.0% 10.7% Estimated Tax Collected 85,376 3,784,478 31,648,857 103,366,347 80,492,622 212,290,589 176,322,148 211,789,672 819,780,089 Change in Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (46,168,186) (46,168,186)
(Governor Rick Perry Optional 20% Flat-Tax Plan) Governor Rick Perrys plan provides a tax cut for the top earners that we believe will simply transfer from the treasury to the bank accounts of the wealthiest Americans. Governor Mitt Romney and President Barak Obama do not propose any substantive changes to tax rates, although one may expect them to promise something closer to the election. Governor Jon Huntsman proposes a three-bracket plan with brackets of 8%, 14%, and 23%.
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Tax Chart - 2009 Incomes No adjusted gross income $1 under $5,000 $5,000 under $10,000 $10,000 under $15,000 $15,000 under $20,000 $20,000 under $25,000 $25,000 under $30,000 $30,000 under $40,000 $40,000 under $50,000 $50,000 under $75,000 $75,000 under $100,000 $100,000 under $200,000 $200,000 under $500,000 $500,000 under $1,000,000 $1,000,000 under $1,500,000 $1,500,000 under $2,000,000 $2,000,000 under $5,000,000 $5,000,000 under $10,000,000 $10,000,000 or more
Number of Returns 2,511,925 10,447,635 12,220,335 12,444,512 11,400,228 10,033,887 8,662,392 14,371,647 10,796,412 18,694,893 11,463,725 13,522,048 3,195,039 492,568 108,096 44,273 61,918 14,322 8,274 140,494,129
Total Income -198,958,452 27,218,608 92,407,278 155,465,805 199,017,560 225,167,737 237,994,230 499,879,773 483,088,798 1,149,068,817 990,337,913 1,801,446,897 905,347,402 332,037,478 130,149,237 76,148,200 182,986,391 97,493,167 240,133,885 7,626,430,724
Total Tax Paid 85,376 40,278 379,851 848,075 2,516,274 4,669,410 6,827,564 20,151,883 25,404,274 77,962,073 80,492,622 212,290,589 176,322,148 80,458,186 32,755,871 19,393,235 46,943,489 24,617,005 53,790,072 865,948,275
Average Tax Rate
New Tax (0)
Average Tax Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 14.0% 14.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0%
0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% 4.0% 5.3% 6.8% 8.1% 11.8% 19.5% 24.2% 25.2% 25.5% 25.7% 25.2% 22.4%
0 0 0 0 0 0 39,990,382 38,647,104 91,925,505 79,227,033 252,202,566 126,748,636 76,368,620 29,934,325 17,514,086 42,086,870 22,423,428 55,230,794 872,299,348
(The Huntsman Plan Three-Brackets of 8%, 14%, and 23%) We estimated the brackets based on the IRS data and the limited information provided by the Huntsman campaign about where those brackets would fall. Governor Jon Huntsman proposed that his plan would be revenue neutral and we considered that when making our analysis. The Huntsman plan simplifies tax policy but it does not offer any advantages beyond simplification, a not unworthy goal, but nonetheless a low-priority for many people faced with a difficult tax burden. The Ron Paul plan was not discussed because it is simply too complicated to predict the outcome. We believe our plan is the most attractive and offers the best stimulus potential. It lowers taxes on average for 88% of taxpayers and raises taxes on the wealthy who can most afford to
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pay higher taxes. With a large portion of the high-income earners assets invested in cash sitting idle in the bank, there will only be a marginal immediate impact to the economic activity of highincome earners. We propose preferential treatment for long-term capital gains which would reduce the burden for high-income earners in our proposal. Our proposal results in an additional $166 billion in revenues that will help close the budget gap. Jump-Starting the Economy Debt Relief When a car has a dead battery one has to get out the jumper cables and get another battery to jump-start it. Sometimes in an old truck, one has to spray some carburetor fluid in as well to get it to turn over on really cold mornings. When the engine is running backwards, which is what the housing market is doing as it continues to fall, one has to first shut down the engine and then restart it before one can get it going in the right direction or the engine will explode. Essentially, the government must intervene in the markets to stop housing prices from falling and bottom-out the market before stimulating the market to begin advancing. There are several ways to do this but the main impediment right now is the oversupply of houses (Stanlib, 2011). A simple remedy is just take the properties off the market (Berg, 2011). If the inventory of houses shrinks by three or four million, then people looking for homes will demand more new homes driving new construction. The second concern relates to new foreclosures entering the market so one must stop the foreclosure activity as well (Blinder, 2011; Harding 2011). No one is suggesting that people be rewarded for bad behavior. That horse already left the barn when the FED reimbursed the banks at 100%. Penalizing borrowers for the mistakes of the lenders is just cutting off our noses to spite our faces. Recognizing the need for fiscal
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(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CpELucysSuo/Ted2MfInS2I/AAAAAAAAApM/xIxFRmRKbRY/s 1600/Case-Schiller%2BJune%2B2011.PNG) probity, one is still left with the unenviable situation of rewarding a few miscreants to benefit those who did nothing wrong but caught in the downward price spiral. The only way to stop the foreclosure process is to write down the debts (Blinder, 2011; Harding, 2011). If someone loses his or her home, the bank/government is going to absorb 100% of the cost because the home is currently unmarketable. If the bank/government takes a 20 35% haircut, total loss is avoided, one less home is on the market exerting downward pressure, and a family avoids losing something they may have invested a tremendous amount of time and money in over the many years (Javetski & Koller, 2011). If this only involved 10s of thousands of people, this would be an easy decision but it involves 10s of millions of people and it is not going to be cheap.
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(http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/01%202011%2003%20Posts/lps_2_2011_s quatting-statistics.png) To be fair, this program has to be open to the majority of Americans who are either in foreclosure, past due on their mortgages, or faced with underwater mortgages (Blinder, 2011). At least 25% of homeowners, and possibly as many as 35% of homeowners, would qualify for this program. If the government does nothing, no one knows when prices will bottom out or if they will begin moving in a positive direction any time this decade. If one looks at the Japanese experience the prognosis is not good (Hubescher, 2011). The remaining homes currently on the market resulting from foreclosure should be offered at quick sale prices to qualified buyers and sold to reduce current inventories. In our example of jump-starting the economy, this is the carburetor fluid being sprayed into the stopped engine. All this action does is remove the blockage, America still has 20 million people unemployed exerting a drag on the economy.
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(http://mail.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2011/Oct/us-housing-27-1.jpg) The primary concern with a homeowners debt reduction plan is where the money will come from and like all things the government does, the money has to come from the people. Specifically, the money will come from the Federal Reserve from its pool of assets reserved for future monetary tightening. Currently, the FED has approximately $3.5 trillion in reserves held as treasury bonds or mortgage backed securities (FED, 2011). Many of the mortgages currently in foreclosure or distress are held by the FED already simplifying this process for borrowers. The FED has the authority to renegotiate these debts without Congressional approval under previous authorizations related to the banking crisis. In fact, there is no reason for the FED not to be doing it right now except for ideological objections (Weisenthal, 2011). Instead of an organized process, the FED is allowing individuals to self-choose who will walk away from
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION homes, clog the bankruptcy courts, and continue the steady drop in real estate values for all Americans.
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(http://mail.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2011/Oct/us-housing-27-2.jpg) A related problem concerns student loans. Student loans have grown beyond any reasonable expectation of repayment and one needs to seriously consider debt forgiveness (Applebaum, 2011). Many people remark that they paid their student loans so todays students must pay theirs. This is not a fair comparison for several reasons. First, public schools did a better job of preparing students for university studies and a greater percentage of students graduated. Now with little or no alternative employment, students who may have preferred a career that did not require a college diploma must make an effort to get one despite poor educational preparation. Invariably, these students drop out saddled with unpayable debts
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(http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/files/2011/10/debt.jpg) (Gladieux & Perna, 2005). Second, the cost of education has continued to go up, whereas incomes have not matched the same pace leaving students with much higher debt loads IBT, 2011). Much like the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, money has been lent to students without any consideration for repayment (Kennard & Bond, 2011). In todays limited jobs market, students are faced with crushing debt loads but unlike homeowners, they cannot walk away from these debts (WJLA, 2011). Finally, the high cost of education is not driven by the potential earnings of a diploma, but the governments willingness to finance it (Carey, 2011) a theme actively promoted by Ron Paul (Stull, 2011). Others point to the low productivity of universities compared to the rest of the private sector (Salmon, 2011, November 21). Without the government to provide these loans, Carey along with Ron Paul claims university costs would be much closer to an affordable cost and students would not need to bear the burden of bad policy
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decisions (Carey, 2011; Stull, 2011). Returning to a national vision, do we want a vision where students toil for decades to repay student loans limiting their ability to fully participate in society or one where education is an affordable right available to all citizens? The student loan debacle is another piece of the puzzle preventing the nations economy from moving forward. Providing relief through principal reduction, payment adjustments, and deferments is necessary to free up the creative engines of what should be our future middle class (Devaney, 2011). Relative to repayment, the students of today will be the taxpayers of tomorrow, so any loan forgiveness program will be borne by them in future tax payments just as much as anyone when one considers college graduates will pay more in income tax than others on average. There are no simple solutions and some will benefit that should not, whereas others will not benefit that should, that is the nature of national programs.
(http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_student_loan_delinquency.jpg)
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Entitlements At present, we are not recommending any changes to Social Security. We believe that long-term, the program should allow individuals to invest in their accounts as well by segregating funds that could be passed on for inheritance. There are plenty of interesting proposals and we would consider them during the 2nd or 3rd year of our administration. We
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believe that the current fund is sufficiently solvent and with the additional revenues generated by our job creation program that any substantive changes could be delayed for another five to ten years.
(http://reason.com/assets/mc/jtaylor/VeroSocialSecurity.jpg) Medicare - Medicaid Medicare and Medicaid on the other hand would see dramatic changes in funding and resource allocation under our plan. We believe that continuing to fund these programs through payroll deductions puts an unequal burden on workers and for long-term stability we need to
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION move to a consumption tax (Hubbard, 2010). Further, we maintain that to be fair this type of program should be paid for by all Americans, not just half of them. Hence, we are recommending a 10% National Sales Tax to be used to fund Medicare and Medicaid. This tax will not only pay for the existing recipients but every American citizen as well. Further, this program can expand naturally at the rate of growth of the economy without necessitating expensive tax increases in the future. It is estimated that a 10% tax will yield 80% of the US
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) currently estimated at $15 trillion per year. This would provide $1.2 trillion in funding for the entire program. Currently, payroll taxes yield approximately $500 billion and the states provide $275 billion. This tax would eliminate the state contributions because the programs would be consolidated freeing up desperately needed tax revenues for states to reinvest in education and state services. The Veterans Administration Medical Care program would also be consolidated into this budget as well, providing Veterans with enhanced services in a larger network.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION (http://econproph.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/ushealthcarespending2009whereitcamefrom.png)
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The first criticism is that this is a very regressive tax on the poor. We propose an earned income credit for wage earners below $12,000 per year to offset the cost of insurance. We believe that the total cost will be lower for employers and employees because the average premium for a family of four now exceeds $10,000 per year. With the premium savings, employers will either lower prices, increase employee wages, or invest in their companies yielding growth. For a family of four earning an average of $50,000, we estimate total sales tax of $4,000 against a premium of $10,000 paid partly by the employer and partly by the employee. We believe that it will be a savings for everyone earning under $125,000. For individuals not currently covered under health insurance, they will have a higher tax burden but less than they would face under the Affordable Health Care Act.
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(http://lh3.ggpht.com/_eM-gxcLi0Og/TAPiJOgz3eI/AAAAAAAAAao/o3Lqdr8lfV4/Inflationreduced%20Medicare.jpg) Both the Republicans and the Democrats propose cuts of between 25% and 50% in benefits for Medicare and Medicaid recipients depending on which candidate and which plan. Recently, Congressman Paul Ryan and Senator Ron Wyden came up with a compromise voucher plan that provides a fixed premium to seniors through a voucher that they can use with a private insurer (Montopoli, 2011). This plan meets the desires of neoliberals who believe that only by privatizing government services can we improve them. Instead this plan will raise costs for seniors and reduce the quality of care that they can receive in retirement (Baker, 2011). Our plan is the only plan that does not reduce benefits and enhances the program for all Americans. We believe that this is both affordable and equitable. Everybody pays and everybody benefits. Those that spend more will pay more but no American will ever go without proper health care.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION (http://baselinescenario.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/screen-shot-2011-11-07-at-4-59-40pm.png) In the debates, Governor Huntsman brought up a valid point. Health care in America
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costs on average three to four times as much as health care in OECD countries. To address this issue, rather than cut payments to doctors across the board, we will setup a review board to compare the most common procedures performed against equivalent procedures in specific OECD countries. We will then develop intervention strategies that drive down those costs to OECD averages. We estimate that we can save upwards of $750 billion from health care spending over a two-year period. Once we achieve these savings, we will eliminate the payroll deduction. Reducing this tax permanently will provide sufficient stimulus to offset the loss of spending in the health care industry allowing these funds to be redeployed into personal consumption. Dual-Currency Economy (Outside the Box) One idea that has not been discussed but needs a critical analysis is the possibility of reserving the US dollar for international transactions and settlements. As the defacto reserve currency of the world, it is important that the dollar maintain a stable value. This allows trade to be conducted without consideration for changes in prices. However, with the Quantitative Easing programs promulgated by the Federal Reserve to maintain the zero-interest rate policy, the FED has exported inflation to the developing world. The constant printing of dollars to purchase US bonds has resulted in too many dollars floating around the world pushing up commodity prices, specifically food, steel, oil, and cement. Further, none of this stimulus has resulted in lower production costs for American manufacturers. Hence, this analysis proposes
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION the consideration of a dual-currency regime; one for international settlements and one for domestic settlements.
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A non-convertible currency (the Eagle) issued in the United States would be used to pay all domestic bills, salaries, and debts to the US government. All dollar funds during a 90-day window would be converted at a one-to-one ratio in savings accounts or by presentation of cash. After the 90-day window expires, the Eagle would be devalued by 20% against the dollar to reduce wages allowing companies to benefit when manufacturing for exports. Since American made goods will be priced in the same currency, there would only be an inflationary impact on imports providing an advantage to American manufacturers. Inflation would be mitigated because locally produced goods would not specifically change in price. This would be one alternative to suspending the WTO agreement. Debt denominated in the US dollar would become more expensive encouraging American companies to convert their debt to the new currency. Overseas wire transfers would be limited during the 90-day period to minimize profiteering. A second program would relate to debt reduction programs. Instead of renegotiating loan terms on home mortgages, each mortgage could be converted to Eagle denominations with an automatic reduction of 20% as part of the process allowing every mortgage holder to benefit from the program. This would be a cleaner and less controversial method to provide homeowners with debt relief. Our current proposal is to identify homeowners underwater and provide debt relief, however, this would require the reappraisal of nearly every home. One of the features of a non-convertible currency is the restriction on issuing dollars locally. Companies apply for dollars to pay for imports allowing the central bank to better manage the monetary commitments of the economy. For small businesses this is usually not a
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION big problem but for large importers, companies could find themselves facing cash restrictions
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from time-to-time. Consumers would be limited to a pre-defined amount of exchange normally used for travel overseas, overseas expenditures, and other purchases. Typically, this could be $1,000 per month or $2,500 per trip depending on the needs of the economy. Most Americans never need to go abroad and would not personally be impacted by these restrictions. Ultimately these measures could be eliminated in the future when the economy recovers. Craig and Waller in a report on the implementation of a dual-currency regime remark that one of the factors that made acceptance possible in Ukraine was the widespread ability of people to change money (2000). After an initial cut-over period while the government seeks to minimize profiteering, a similar program could be implemented in the US. By issuing currency trading licenses much like money order licenses, traders could alleviate any currency fears by the populace (Craig & Waller, 2000). Currently there are about a dozen local currencies used in the United States but none of them are nationwide (Krone & Snyder, 2007). The dual-currency is one way to get around the Chinese peg and the ability of other countries to practice mercantilism by devaluing their currency against the dollar. Imposing tariffs on imports would have the same effect as the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s and create massive dislocations in global markets potentially leading to trade-wars. Abrogating the WTO could have severe negative repercussions, whereas a dual-currency would not invalidate any current treaties in place, nor would it impose any currency losses on foreign holders of debt. Countries attempting to revalue their exports to match devaluations of the Eagle would face real losses on their dollar denominated trade limiting currency manipulation as a tool of competition. Education
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION During the 1950s and 60s, there was a progressive movement in the American school
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system to move education from a teacher-centered environment to a student-centered one leading to a more socially oriented educational model. The expectation was that students would perform better in an environment where they were actively involved in exploration and analysis improving critical-thinking skills. For many students this proved accurate and they excelled, however, not all students learn in the same way and with the abandonment of teacher-centered learning, the pendulum swung too far away from traditional learning. This resulted in a disparity between classes with higher income areas producing positive results and lower-income and inner-city areas producing negative results. To combat this discrepancy, the presumption was that race was the key difference and programs to improve race relations proliferated in the schools. After 50 years of experimentation and attempts to reverse the steady decline of educational outcomes, it appears that all the changes and fixes have been ineffective and that a serious discussion needs to take place around returning some teacher-centered programs back to schools. This notion contradicts many educational experts opinion on what is best for students and there is of course a grain of truth but what is best for the students is to graduate with a strong enough education to be successful in the workplace, not meet someones ivory tower expectations. Our students are failing and failure is no longer an option. The countries that are beating the US in global competition employ teacher-centered learning, whereas other countries employing student-centered learning are falling behind alongside the US. However, it is important that when the pendulum swings back that students and parents are given an option for which learning environment they prefer.
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A second problem that concerns conservatives is the employment of hidden curriculum to encourage good social values. This is a valid criticism because the parental influence is removed from the process and decisions are made in Washington. Programs that support anti-bullying, combating global warming, and appreciation for alternative life choices may seem perfectly reasonable and appropriate by many parents but for others, they represent a gross infringement on their parental rights. Often times, children of concerned parents remove their children from the school system and engage them in home schooling. Currently, about 5% of American children are home schooled and by and large, these programs have been very successful making a mockery of the expensive public school system. To combat the decline in quality, President Bush implemented the No-Child-Left-Behind Act. The primary objective of the act was to raise student performance through a mixture of carrot and sticks by rewarding or punishing teachers for bad performance. However, this puts the entire burden of student performance on teachers and administrators who have little or no control over the types and kinds of students or the study habits of students. What was perceived as a reasonable response became the rights effort to privatize schools and move students into charter programs through vouchers and other efforts. The neo-classicists desire to privatize all government functions and with public schools being a juicy target and mostly populated by Democrats, it became a cause belli for the Republican Party. During the first 12 years of the program, the NCLB act has had only a minor impact on total student performance, one could accurately characterize it as a complete failure. Surprisingly, Democrats have been unwilling to entirely abandon the NCLB supporting President Obamas efforts to make reforms. Administrators have invested tremendous efforts into making the system work. Further, the system has led to educational standards becoming
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION routinized throughout the educational system with a state movement towards common-core standards in 40 states. This movement toward a national standard, one-size fits all plan on the face of it, sounds perfectly logical. We want our students to compete on a global stage so we
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need a national curriculum and standards to judge students by. Unfortunately, with vast regional differences in culture and ability, we run into the round-hole, square-peg problem. Each student learns in a unique way and forcing students to learn the same thing despite being at different development speeds ultimately results in failing students. To compensate for this problem, failing students are socially promoted to minimize stigma and reduce the potential that students view themselves in a negative way. However, promoting students without the necessary skills guarantees future failure in much the same way that the NCLB act fails schools. Continuing this model of education is untenable for most educators and students. For special education children, each child has an Individual Education Plan (IEP) to help manage the uneven educational development of these students. The IEP program has been fairly successful at managing the needs of at risk students. A simple way to approach this problem is to put all students in IEPs. Instead of promoting students from grade to grade each year, students should be enrolled in mastery programs. When a student masters a subject, then the student moves on to the next level. This puts some of the accountability back on the student and parents to ensure student progression. Students falling behind can quickly be identified leading to intervention strategies to help a drifting student catch-up. Theoretically, a student could be ahead in one subject, behind in another, and working with classmates at a normal expected grade-level on a third subject. No child should be promoted ahead of his or her abilities nor should that child be stigmatized for natural differences in development pace. To further enhance the benefits of the program,
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION students would be assigned to a master teacher to monitor progress on the IEPs and manage
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intervention strategies during three-year increments. This will enable a teacher to understand the needs of each child and work through problems over a longer period of time rather than hand off the problem in the middle. Designing a program in three-year increments of K-2, 3-5, and 6-8 focuses on three periods of development for students and allows students to work on programs over a multi-year period. Some students will progress faster and move ahead, whereas other students will ultimately fall behind. To compensate, once students complete their ninth-year in the program, each student will be tested and then assigned one of three tracks. There is an expectation among senior educators that all children must go to college, that makes little sense given historical preferences. Instead, 50% of students will be accepted in academic programs, and 25% each in vocational and technical programs. None of these programs would inhibit a student from attending university but the day-to-day studies in vocational and technical programs would be oriented towards developing basic employment skills instead of standard preparation for a college track. Germany and Switzerland follow this type of program but have students divided in 4th grade into various tracks. For many that seems too early to accurately determine a students potential for the future and in truth it is. The main criticism of merit-based programs is that minorities will be underrepresented in participation. However, with the mastery program and intervention strategies, students that fall behind have opportunities to catch-up. Determining regional participation in different tracks would give inner-city minorities an equal chance to participate in academic programs as students in the suburban areas. The primary at-risk groups in this program are immigrants and ESL students. To compensate for language proficiency problems, ESL students would have a five-
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year dual language transition program. The current three-year program is too short for Hispanic students to fully acclimate with English studies because of the cultural preferences to retain Spanish heritage and language skills. This program would be designed with half-day in-class periods and half-day online periods including virtual classes to support non-traditional language programs for immigrants. To graduate, each student would be required to pass a merit-test to first determine mastery of expected high school expectations and second to determine the eligibility for various university programs. Students graduating from a vocational or technical program would receive a diploma equal to their course of study. These students would be permitted to take a supplemental test to determine eligibility for entrance to university and or post-secondary schools. There is a national expectation that all students have the same opportunities with university open to all comers. Currently, the government funds these aspirations without serious consideration of the students ability to repay the funds. This provides an equitable situation for students but an inequitable situation for taxpayers who must underwrite the expected losses. Currently, the debt for students has risen to $1 trillion and is virtually unrepayable. This is a situation that must be rebalanced and restructured for the future. Universities should receive funds based on the potential earnings of students from specific programs. For example, if a student studies history at X university for four years and the tuition costs $15,000 each year but history graduates from that university typically only earn $24,000 per year upon graduation. If reimbursable tuition fees are set at 1.5 times the average annual wage then the government would negotiate with the school to set the tuition fees at $36,000 for this program. Universities would then have to make the decision whether to offer this program or to rationalize their programs to make them more cost-effective. A second
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criteria relates to the demands of industry and allocating student aid for specific programs. For example, if the projected requirements for industry is 120,000 mechanical engineers, the government would be limited to financing 180,000 engineers. If there was a requirement for more workers in a specific industry and not enough students entering it, then the government could adjust the funding program to support those areas if there were not enough students applying for programs. The goal is to develop a better match between students preparing for the work environment and the future jobs available. The weakness of the American system is a failure to match graduates with employment. Students graduating from a program expect to find employment in areas they have studied. This may necessitate in some cases the creation of jobs by the government to guarantee employment for new graduates for the first two years. This can be done through subsidies to local businesses and apprenticeship programs. This has worked well for many countries balancing the needs of the community with the needs of new graduates. Once a student develops work experience or completes an apprenticeship program, these workers are highly employable and their opportunities for success are much higher. One of the social issues that results in students quitting schools is the dearth of jobs available to recent graduates. Students feel a work opportunity is more valuable to them than continuing to stay in school for a few more years. The current free-market environment does not permit a managed employment program for recent graduates. This would require some structural adjustments to support companies locally that would continue to provide a stable employment base. One of the biggest negatives of the free-trade movement has been the hallowing out of the manufacturing sector in small communities around the country. The intent of this program is to support keystone companies that provide work and work training opportunities for graduates in communities. It is not meant
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION to create a managed economy or centralized economy but a more stable one centered around
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American manufacturing. The jobs program proposed in this plan provides ample opportunity to manage the needs of the new graduates. Specific Proposals: The committee to elect Mike Ballantine 2012 believes that we should transfer $100 billion from our annual military spending to invest in our children. Instead of promoting war and destruction we believe education both here and abroad will be the catalyst to achieve peace. Our program includes the following proposals: 1. Provide scholarships and guaranteed employment to 250,000 Hispanic, African American as well as other minorities to go to university for 5 years for teacher training. We estimate the cost to be about $120,000 per student. This price includes tuition, room and board, and a small stipend. Upon graduation, these teachers will be assigned specific schools facing challenges. 2. Financial aid at university will be tied to the average wage that someone with that degree will earn upon graduating. We will work with universities to restructure how they charge tuition to reflect the real value of the program. We recommend that students receive a five-year deferment on the principal payment of student loans to avoid the current problems faced by many graduates and that payments be limited to 10% of the graduates income. 3. A new two-year preparatory program be offered by colleges and universities for 5 years to assist inner-city graduates overcome the educational obstacle that our failure to provide a quality education has created. This program will be available to 1 million qualifying students each year. We estimate the cost of this program to be $20,000 per
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION student, $20.0 billion the first year and $40 billion the second year. 4. We support the payment of block grants to local community schools to pay for additional teaching hours to improve student scores. Instead of a 6 hour/5 days a week schedule, we propose an 8 hour/5 days with 4/hours on Saturday for children at risk. 5. We believe that by offering students a bonus at graduation, we can dramatically reduce drop-out rates among inner-city students. We propose a $2,000 bonus to
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encourage students to stay in school and an additional $1,000 for students that achieve an average of 3.5 or above in their GPA. 6. Eliminate the No-Child-Left-Behind Act (NCLB) and all the Title programs: Titles I VII. Instead we would craft new legislation that required schools to provide an Individual Education Plan (IEP) for every student requiring subject mastery based on state approved standards. Students would take national merit exams at the end of 8th grade and 12th grade. Each student would attend either a vocational training program, a technical/professional training program, or an academic training program based on his or her performance on the 8th grade merit exam. A student's high school diploma would reflect enrollment in a particular program. 7. Provide block grants to support 5-year dual-language instruction for immigrants and non-native speakers. 8. Tax and minimum wage incentive programs to hire recent high school and college graduates for two years. 9. Provide block grants to support virtual academies in our public schools. 10. Debt forgiveness for holders of student loans of $10,000 plus 50% of additional debt. Proposal 1
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION During the 70s and the 80s, America went through a period when we attempted to use
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Affirmative Action to promote the hiring of minorities to offset former prejudices that commonly prevented minorities from moving up the corporate ladder. Whereas, glass ceilings still exist, America has made improvements. Surprisingly, education is a field which is often overlooked when considering discrimination. The fact that teaching provides balanced opportunities to all applicants goes without saying. Unfortunately, statistics paint a much different picture, one that a reasonable person might find concern with. Noted psychologist Albert Bandura believed that behavior comes from modeling important people in our lives like parents or friends, public figures, and especially teachers. These role-models provide a pattern of behavior that a child copies to alter his or her social relationships. When sports stars like Tiger Woods or Michael Phelps do something immoral then as parents we get upset because he or she is providing bad role-models for kids. Further, many celebrities with their emphasis on money, drugs, and sex provide poor role-models for our children. Hence, it is important that students have culturally relevant role-models in schools. The first criticism that one hears is that being a good teacher should be all that matters. However, teaching is like any occupation, you have great teachers, good teachers, average teachers, and some that need to go. Like any other occupation, you are going to have more average teachers than great teachers. Nostalgically reminiscing the old days, one remembers the great teachers and the very worst, but does anyone really remember the average ones. We have some great teachers of all races but we do not have enough of the right teachers for all races. We are not proposing a racial quota for teachers, that does not make much sense but here are the facts. 83% of teachers are white, against about an average population of 70% whites. A
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second fact is that 84% of teachers are female against an average population rate of about 52%. One does not need to be a statistician to see there is an imbalance. Some might say it is justified but after 50 years of the civil rights movement, why aren't minorities becoming teachers at the same rate as whites? Why aren't men interested in becoming teachers? Certainly, the issue of affirmative action for men is almost laughable but should more men become teachers and how do we encourage them to enter teaching as a profession? When one looks at the statistics, one finds that America is hiring more minority teachers on average than whites but losing more minority teachers every year than are being hired. To employ a colloquial saying, WTF? It turns out that when minority teachers are faced with intractable administrations unable to engage in intervention solutions because of Title requirements or test performance requirements, they get frustrated and quit at the end of the year. Nobody wants to beat a dead horse, and teachers are no different. It turns out, its not pay, its not location, and its not the students, its the system that is causing them to quit. (http://www.ncsu.edu/mentorjunction/text_files/teacher_retentionsymposium.pdf) One solution is to change how we license teachers. Right now, there is a cultural bias that men should go into business or occupations that will pay well. Despite Republican attempts to cast teachers as overpaid, it simply is not true. Instead of having the only route to teaching existing through college and university teaching programs, there is much to be said for real world experience. We propose that teachers receive their teaching license after a three-year trial period allowing non-traditional teachers access as well. This opens the door for professionals who chose a different occupation but find teaching to be a more attractive alternative in life. Further, like CPAs and other professionals, teaching is something that is learned on the job as much as in the university. Allowing experienced professionals to study online at night whilst working
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION during the day offers non-traditional teachers, particularly minority males, entrance to an
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occupational alternative currently closed to them. Further, local schools could recruit successful professionals looking to change occupations in mid-life. A second alternative is scholarships. We propose 250,000 scholarships for promising minorities to go to school for up to five years to study to be a teacher. These would be full scholarships at the cost of about $120,000 per student. Further, upon graduation, these students would be guaranteed employment for an initial training period of three years at a salary equal to 150% of the community average. This program would not solve the entire imbalance within our system but would begin to move us toward a more representative teacher workforce. Without intervention, there is no possibility that the current imbalance will adjust. Providing strong rolemodels within our schools should be a national priority. The total cost of this program would be $6.0 billion per year with a total cost of $30 billion over five years. At first glance, that seems like a lot of money. The trade off is that we will continue to have 40-50% drop-out rates in inner-city schools because our students do not have positive role-models. The social cost of drop-outs and the resultant reduction in income tax revenues make this program a smart investment. We further estimate the salary subsidy to be about $20,000 per teacher for three years. The cost of this program beginning in year six would average about $5 billion per year, bringing the total cost to $15 billion for this additional program. Our failure to invest in quality education over the past 50 years is why we must make these investments today. Education is not a cost but an investment in the future or our nations workforce. Here are some statistics: US Government Employment Report Articles on this topic:
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Teacher Grading Values of Culturally Relevant Role-Models Strengthening Children's Success Marcus Jones talks about role-models Alternative Routes to teaching Proposal 2 The cost of college tuition has increased substantially over the past 30 years. Whereas,
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publicly funded universities have increased at a rate approximating inflation, private tuition fees seem to have become detached from reality. The student loan program like the sub-prime mortgage program did not consider the ability of the borrower to pay back the loan. The goal to have every American child receive a quality university education is laudable but not at any price. There has to be a relationship between cost and benefit in education as there is in everything else or the nation ends up with students who owe unimaginable amounts for educational training that will never provide sufficient income to repay their debts. That is not educating someone, that is enslaving them. Students who do not meet the minimum merit standards based on the high school merit exam will be required to enroll in a two-year preparatory program before enrolling in a 4-year institution. These programs will be financed under a different system and may include full scholarships to targeted groups. Upon successful completion of the two-year preparatory program, a student could apply to a regular 4-year institution and complete their degree in three years receiving credit for basic English, Mathematics, and Science courses taken in the 2-year preparatory program. This helps reduce the current problem of students enrolling in profitoriented schools only to find they cannot meet the requirements to complete the program.
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A second concern with this program is that schools will drop unprofitable programs and majors. In some cases, universities are offering too many programs and we need some rationalization in what a school offers. This will force universities to look at the economic cost of each program instead of just raising tuition each year to support unpopular programs, concentrating them into a few schools where they can enjoy economies of scale. This will improve tuition costs for everyone and end the current subsidies by the taxpayer for unprofitable programs. Graduate programs need to be evaluated under different criteria and we look forward to suggestions on how we can improve graduate programs nationwide. This program would include opportunities for non-citizens as well as citizens. Proposal 3 Marshall Plan for Inner-City Youth Given America's failure to educate our students, it is no wonder that youth unemployment is so high. Expecting the unemployed to find high paying occupations for highschool graduates or drop-outs from the American public school system is intellectually dishonest. We are not going to solve our unemployment problem as long as we have graduates that can only read and write on an eighth grade level. We propose a two-year college preparatory program for qualifying minorities from inner-city communities. We consider this a "Marshall Plan" for inner-city youth to give them an option other than hanging out on street-corners or engaging in small petty crime to put food on the table. Our program would support 1 million unemployed young adults between the ages of 18 and 25 to return to school and complete a college preparatory program. Upon successful completion, students would be offered financial aid to go to college or university based on their performance.
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This program would provide tuition as well as a stipend during the students' enrollment. We are budgeting $20,000 per student per year for this program. Many of these youths have personal commitments to support children or other family members, simply paying their tuition is not enough, we need to support them financially as well. We recommend a stipend of $750 per month to cover the living expenses of program participants. The total cost of this program is $20 billion per year for the two years this program will be operating. With proven success, we propose continuing this program on a smaller scale over future years. As a nation we must bear this cost because we did not properly provide for these students when they were in school. Who is at fault is irrelevant, these young Americans need a helping hand and as a nation it is our obligation to provide the tools necessary for each citizen to reach their full potential. With advanced education, these 1 million disaffected and disenfranchised youth will be able to find better jobs, provide for their families, and help grow our economy in the 21st century. The resultant reduction in entitlements and crime will more than offset this one time expense. Proposal 4 The current education system relies on a historic model developed from the days of agriculture. It also reflects a previous environment where the mother often stayed home and took care of the house and watched the children. Sending kids home at 3:00 pm or 3:30 pm to an empty house makes no sense, nor does expecting working parents to pay for after school care for children placing an additional burden on families already stretched by difficult economic circumstances. For some children, afterschool represents a time for sports and extracurricular activity and for others, they become latch-key victims. With children struggling to meet the requirements of school and communities, extending the school day to 5:00 or 6:00 pm provides additional opportunities to teach, study, and improve grades. A common excuse is that students
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION should get home before traffic. Which do we value more traffic or our childrens education. It seems traffic might have other solutions but our children are suffering now. The typical program is designed for a 6-hour day and 5 days a week. This meets the needs of a majority of students. For these students, the additional time could be spent doing
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extracurricular activities, whereas for students requiring intervention, this time is better spent on additional studies. The primary concern revolves around cost, however, home schooling provides us with some ways to cut those costs. To reduce costs, we recommend a mixture of inclass studies coupled with online studies. Already, students engage in webquests, develop Power Points for presentations, and prepare their assignments on the computer. We propose moving to a 4x2x2 day for students. Each student would have 4 hours with a teacher completing direct studies, 2 hours a day completing online tasks, and 2 hours a day completing either, additional intervention studies online or engaging in extra-curricular activities. Further, for at-risk students, they would have a 4 hour Saturday session of 2 hours of class-time and 2 hours of online time. School would take place year round with periodic breaks. Since students are mastering each subject, they would not specifically fall behind when they take vacations out of sequence. The objective of this program is to provide the additional time needed for studies without any stigma, reduce costs on parents, and improve student performance at very little additional cost to the program. Online sessions would be monitored/protored by teaching assistants or teachertrainees allowing schools to balance their labor costs over a greater number of hours. Proposal 5 Roughly 40 to 50% of inner-city students drop-out during high school. Many of these students do not see a benefit to finishing school. With jobs hard to come by and families to support, these students see no value in completing a diploma. We propose offering a financial
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reward or bonus for graduating to every student. There are approximately 2 million graduating students each year and we propose a bonus of $2,000 for normal graduating students and $3,000 for students with a GPA of 3.5 or better. The expectation is that much of this money will be used to fund college studies. In a study called A Nation at Risk, the authors found that: The level of cognitive skills of a nations students has a large effect on its subsequent economic growth rate. Increasing the average number of years of schooling attained by the labor force boosts the economy only when increased levels of school attainment also boost cognitive skills. In other words, it is not enough simply to spend more time in school; something has to be learned there. (Education Next.org) The first step is getting the students to stay in school, the second step is teaching them something useful. In proposal 6, we talk about how to reorganize our schools. Proposal 6 If you were to ask most teachers and administrators if the No-Child-Left-Behind act was a good piece of legislation, they would walk away in disgust. This piece of legislation should be called the every-child-left-behind act because of its unintended consequences or rather unexpected consequences. Currently, 80% of schools are unable to meet the requirements of the legislation, and even though President Obama has made some welcome improvements, the legislation does not work. The history of American school legislation begins in the civil rights era in 1965 when Lyndon Johnson began the Title programs. These initiatives had the intention of forcing schools to provide an equal education to all students, a not unworthy ambition. Unfortunately, for every winner, there is a loser and the system has begun to collapse under its own legislative weight.
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The Supreme Court famously ruled that equal but separate was not acceptable ending segregation in schools. This led to busing programs initiated in the mid 70s, followed by white flight as whites decided to leave inner-cities and move to the suburbs resegregating schools. This white flight was responsible for the hallowing out of city tax bases as people took their money with them leaving urban centers blighted and suburban schools wealthy. This does not in any way mean that we should not have ended desegregation, only that there are always unintended consequences when we try to legislate social behavior. To end the need to prove racial balance, we propose a school of one. Each student will receive an Individual Education Plan (IEP) based on a preconfigured template of 5 choices. The primary choices would be academic/college bound, technical/professional, vocational/agriculture, special education, and ESL. Each program would have sub-templates that students could move between based on performance and ability. Naturally, most parents would choose academic/college bound but as a student fell behind, they would move among the sub-templates or down one tier to technical/professional and then possibly down to vocational/agriculture. This puts the educational burden on parents and the student, transferring it from the teacher. The current educational system puts all the responsibility on the teacher, converting teachers into surrogate parents, counselors, and baby sitters. Unless a teacher has 24/7 supervision of a student, it is impossible for that teacher to insure a student will perform adequately. We need to put accountability back on the student and parents. The IEP allows us to tailor a program suitable for each student without resorting to social promotion. One of the greatest problems that schools face is a lack of intrinsic motivation by students. If everyone knows that everyone will pass, why work harder or perform better? This way performance is recognized and rewarded by future scholarship opportunities and preferences for high-demand
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION subjects. Teacher performance can be measured by improvements of each student against previous performances and not against a national average that bares little resemblance to the small community that a teacher exists in. We can still have teacher accountability, but a fair
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accountability. Further, each student will receive the proper support to meet the needs of his or her IEP, avoiding the situation of separate but equal. Students can attend neighborhood schools without judicial interference and funds from block grants will be distributed based on the IEPs providing sufficient funds. There is no question that the cost to educate a student who does well is dramatically lower than that of a special education student. Under the charter program, when a student accepts a voucher, that voucher is based on the average cost of a student. That belies the actual cost because the average fee includes all students and the ones leaving for charter schools are the best students and least costliest to educate forcing public schools to educate lower performing or special needs students with less money on average. Charter schools are not providing choices, they are killing public education. For some, that solution is the one they want because they believe that only the private market can provide services at the lowest cost and in an efficient manner. The business of education is about making investments in future taxpayers, it should not be at the lowest cost but at the best value. For profit companies, cannot determine value because they seek to maximize profit. There is an inherent conflict that will result in two classes of students, those educated privately in wellfunded programs and those educated in bare-bones public schools. This situation will continue to deteriorate until the public school system can no longer educate our poorest citizens or provide schooling to new immigrants. Whereas, many right-wing pundits support that outcome, doing so only creates future entitlements that continue unending for a persons entire life, contributes to crime, and violates the right to equal treatment under the law. Certainly, charter schools will
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION exist for the less fortunate but without sufficient funding, their performance will reflect our current public school programs. We propose eliminating all of the title programs and establishing IEPs for children
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beginning at age 5 with review periods twice a year within sub-templates, and three-year reviews to determine proper positioning in the system. Upon taking a national merit exam at age 14, each student will be offered the opportunity to attend one of three high school programs based on test performance. A student has the option of attending school privately under any arrangement deemed appropriate but for public school students, allocating resources effectively allows schools to educate for success. Many educators desire to have 100% of children go to university. This is a noble desire but ultimately unsustainable because there are not enough jobs waiting for 2 million university graduates each year now and the nation still needs trained professionals and tradesmen. Instead of wasting time in high school preparing for something many students neither desire nor aspire toward, this program provides educational opportunities suitable to students and the economy. To find a comparable program, one can look at Germany or Switzerland. In the German program, students are culled in fourth grade and diverted to one of three concentrations. Once placed in a particular program, it is very difficult to change programs. We propose waiting until eighth grade to allow sufficient time for all students to develop and mature sufficiently to predict their high school performance. To further improve their program, the Germans provide community support for apprentice programs with local companies and we propose to do the same. Under our program, all children would begin literacy programs at age 5 and we would continue to support the Head-Start programs as well as other pre-kindergarten programs for working parents. Ideally, literacy development begins at age 3 and we believe that
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neighborhood mini-schools school can provide a valuable service to working parents and begin developing literacy to our most vulnerable citizens, children from low-income families. Proposal 7 With all the debate about immigration, declaring English as the national language, or Arizonas declaration that students must study American based studies, rationality and intelligence seems to have become a scarce commodity. We have a duty and an obligation to educate all of our citizens and guests to be successful in the future. Most of these children will be living and working in America. It is important to improve all childrens education, resulting in higher income levels, resulting in more taxes collected over a peoples lifetime. America needs to educate its students not just for the sake of humanity but for its tax base as well. It is in the nations financial interest to do so and the nation should make every effort to ensure students move quickly from their native languages to American English. Learning English takes time and expecting students to comprehend classes taught in English before they learn English is a fools errand. We believe a robust dual-language curriculum is appropriate and necessary to solve our current education crisis. A famous educator in Toronto, Jim Cummins estimates that it takes 4 to 7 years for students to become competent in English. During this time, the student needs to continue learning all subjects in their native language while progressing in English skills. Current American programs often employ a three-year rule with intervention strategies that are ineffective or they place the student several years behind until their English catches up. Neither program meets the needs of our immigrants. We recommend a five-year program requiring a student to attend 45 hours a week of school year-round until achieving English competency. Canada currently offers a 10-year program to select groups of immigrants for comparison. A
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION further benefit to society is that students successfully completing a dual-language program out perform their peers on standardized tests.
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It is unreasonable to expect every school district to offer every possible language in a dual-language program so we propose that each school district concentrate on up to five primary languages and then place other children in supplemental online programs to support nationwide schooling. Whereas, online schooling in public schools might be considered unusual, this offers children the best opportunity to achieve success in a cost-effective manner. The public should not bear the burden of education at any price, neither should the student suffer from the neglect of a miserly public. The ESL program is designed as a temporary program that an aggressive hard-working student could move out of as early as three years. During a students participation, a student will study all subjects normally in their native language with supplements in English, gradually increasing the English content as performance improves, and reversing towards the end of the program with the majority of instruction in English and only supplementing native language skills. Relative to the cost of delivery, with a large majority of the increase provided through on-line learning, it will not be a budget buster and can be financed through block grants. Proposal 8 To encourage students to finish school and graduate there has to be a prize at the end of the race. A high school diploma is insufficient incentive because we have devalued it. If a student attends school, the probability is that student will graduate, that is a travesty. To provide greater incentive, we need to provide employment opportunities as well. Each community knows a year in advance how many students will be graduating and each student has been preparing for four-years for specific occupations, there should be little or no surprises at the end of a school year which students will need employment and which students will be going on to
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION college. We propose tax incentives for employers to hire new graduates as well as wage supplements. Once recent graduates have acquired experience and proven themselves in the
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workplace, they should have little trouble finding reasonably paying long-term employment. We propose a two-year support program to enable all high school graduates to find work at local companies upon graduation. Instead of graduating students and dumping them into the work environment akin to giving them the boot, we will provide a steppingstone for future success. We believe that if students know there is a job waiting for them at the other end of a high school diploma, they will be encouraged to remain in school and complete the diploma requirements. Proposal 9 Over the next 10 years, education like business will become more and more computerized leading to virtual reality (VR) training programs. These programs already prepare military trainees and teachers for different environments and skills training. Eventually, virtual academies will become the normal delivery method for online education throughout the world. As bandwidth increases and artificial-intelligence based teaching programs become more efficient and effective, learning through simulation will deliver better performance at lower costs. We propose funding to support VR laboratories in inner-city communities with a goal of providing 50% of a students education through VR by the year 2020. Learning to function, manage, and succeed in a VR environment will be critical to future student success. VR represents the future in the service industry as well as in education. To maintain American leadership in commerce, it is essential that American students prepare for a new paradigm. Eliminate all textbooks and printed materials Currently, South Korea has engaged upon an experiment to replace textbooks in their schools with electronic notebooks. We propose that by 2016, all textbooks and printed materials
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION will be eliminated in US schools and replaced with inexpensive notebooks made in the USA. The savings in water used to produce paper alone nationally will more than justify the elimination of paper from schools. Further, assignments will be automatically uploaded and graded by computers allowing teachers to focus on lesson plans instead of assessments. Each
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students record will be constantly updated and performance forecasted to suggest intervention strategies before problems become to big to manage. Given the current speed of computing, Internet services, and cheap disk space, it is a natural extension of the technology revolution to finally automate mundane tasks and truly eliminate the vast amount of paper generated by our old 20th century systems. Proposal 10 Currently, students and graduates of post-secondary school have amassed a debt of more than $1 trillion for school expenses. This debt is unpayable without placing a huge burden on the economy and limiting growth far into the future. This debt was incurred without consideration to the borrowers ability to pay, future economic circumstances, or potential future earnings. The assumption was made that every American is entitled to a college education and that affordability should not be a primary consideration. For profit schools and private colleges abused the public trust and accepted students unprepared for university resulting in a tremendous increase in student debt. To rectify this sorry state of affairs that we find ourselves in, we recommend that the Federal Reserve allocate $575 billion of its assets to forgive a substantial portion of this debt. Specifically, we propose as part of our economic stimulus package the forgiveness of the first $10,000 in debt for each student debt holder, and 50% of the remaining balance. With a large majority of recent grads unemployed or underemployed, this debt is a millstone around
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION their necks and is holding the economy back from returning to economic growth. Should the economy move back to sustained growth in short-order, forgiving this debt will benefit all Americans. A growing economy will benefit everyone, especially holders of real estate who have been hit hardest by this downturn and general economic malaise. Our college graduates will form the backbone of our future economic progress and keeping them from fully participating because of past policy mistakes demonstrates a myopic vision of their future contribution.
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Some suggest that because they had to pay their college loans, current borrowers must pay theirs. If the economy was operating at reasonable growth rates and there were plenty of employment opportunities, we would agree. However, the economy continues to spiral downward despite puffed up government statistics and jobs will be hard to come by for the medium-term. It is essential that we reduce the burden on these workers and free them up to concentrate on what they can do best to make America successful. In short, like in any financial transaction, one must recognize bad debts, negotiate a reasonable deal, and move on. This is part of our proposal to get the economy moving again. Discussion on Standards in Education - Document Link Changing How We Teach Over the past 50 years, America has spent untold sums trying to find the right formula to teach our youth. In essence, we are fitting square pegs into round holes. No one-size fits all plan will meet the needs of a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic society. Further, with differing levels of development, no one set of standards can meet the needs of students who mature at varying rates. Hence, our proposal to move to Individual Educational Plans (IEP) for each student.
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Prior to current computer capabilities, the idea that we could offer an IEP for each student would have been crazy. However, we are in the 21st century and computer processing speed along with the availability of wi-fi make offering this type of program affordable and accessible to nearly every student in America. The current system of moving students through grade levels with expected standards for each grade level bears little resemblance to how children actually learn. Some children learn faster and some learn more slowly, whereas other children have personal difficulties that inhibit performance. Despite this, teachers are expected to teach 40 students based on rigid standards with the expected outcome that all 40 students will master the material at the same time and perform well on tests to determine if the teacher is re-hired. That is just crazy. If a few students have trouble, it slows down the class and all the students fall behind. The solution by teachers has been to dumb down the lessons and teach to the test. Can you blame them? Our students fall behind each year despite the fact that we continue to throw huge money at this problem. It's time to break the paradigm. It's time for IEPs. We should require all students to master a subject before moving on to the next level. Watch Sir Ken Robinson, a California educator, explain how our current system is failing students: Long detailed version Short, fun, interesting version We propose changing our school system to be more European. We know that is a "bad" idea because Europeans are not like us but their students are finishing school and are more successful in life. In fact, the German economy is humming along because the Germans have invested in their students. Our proposal is for an IEP plan for every student from the age of 3 until about 14 when a student normally completes the eighth grade. All students will follow the same basic educational track although some students could be advanced and some slower. At the
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end of eighth grade, every student would take a national merit exam to determine which program he or she would attend. In high school, there would be three tracks. The first track is for students who do not perform well on the merit exam, the second for moderate performance, and the third for high-achievement. Students who do not achieve well would be offered a variety of vocational/trade programs with 50% class-time and 50% real-world apprenticeships. Students would work in local companies at a sub-minimum wage and employers would receive tax credits to support this program. Those students achieving moderate performance would be given opportunities to study technical and professional programs which may or may not lead to college. Finally, the third-tier students would attend college-preparatory programs with the intention of going on to university after graduation. Criticisms of this type of program are valid. Our intention of putting students into educational tracks is not to deny students the opportunity to go to college but to insure that upon graduation, each student has sufficient skills to earn a living. We believe that motivated students can overcome earlier difficulties and eventually go on to college. We want to support those students as well but the current system of emphasizing college over work makes no sense. Statistically, nearly 70% of high school graduates go on to college but only half will graduate. How many of those students have to bear the expense of reeducating themselves at night or accept employment below what they might have achieved had they had the opportunity to learn a trade or technical skill as a youth. We consider the failure to adequately prepare students for jobs upon graduation to be ethically immoral. We propose allocating $50 billion per year for 5 years in block grants to local schools to help with transition to our "ABC" program. We do not believe that Washington should tell local schools how to meet their goals. We believe local schools can best determine how to educate
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their students for the 21st century. The current common-core standards are an excellent start for determining acceptable educational outcomes. However, we believe that grade content standards should be eliminated and replaced with content standards that determine mastery. Further, the entire NCLB act should be annulled and neighborhood schools granted exceptions from compliance with the many educational laws that current add costs instead of improve student performance. Professionals like Sal Khan and his Khan Academy have proven that education can be delivered in a cost effective fun way. Sal Khan Achieving Mastery Other nations are moving beyond America: South Korea replaces textbooks with notebooks South Korea uses robots to teach English How we deliver education is changing. We have to think beyond the traditional four walls and think instead of unlimited possibilities. As long as we are stuck with a 19th century model of education, the American public school system can never regain its former preeminence. We need to begin thinking of virtual reality education and teachers as Avatars if we are going to prepare our students for the competition of the 21st century. Virtual classrooms If, you think we cannot afford this, then you do not understand the problem. America cannot afford to be number 20 in the world when it comes to education. We need to be either number one or number two. Ceding educational leadership to any other nation is the same as ceding economic strength. Education is not a cost, it is an investment. It is an investment in our
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citizens, in our future, and in our society. We need to stop pointing fingers and start pointing to solutions. We believe our proposals are steps in the right direction and we ask your support as well as for your ideas on how we can educate our students for the 21st century. Let the past 50 years become a lesson not repeated. The Effectiveness of Standards The civil rights legislation of the 1960s ushered in a new period of educational exploration. Educators began to implement ideas developed during the previous decade to enhance the learning experience and prepare students for a more diverse multi-cultural society. This led to organizing and institutionalizing hidden curriculum, also known as critical pedagogy. Educators made a number of changes in curriculum at the same time as implementing desegregation policies (Orfield, 2010, p. 337). Unfortunately, the curriculum used lacked the relevant cultural comparatives necessary to educate minorities. When coupled with new hidden curriculum designed to increase the secular nature of students, conflict developed within the psyche of inner-city schools leading to poor performance among inner-city youth. This conflict resulted in demanding students choose between a parents worldview and a teachers (Li, 2005). In the majority of cases, students preferred their parents worldview classifying teachers as out of touch or teaching useless stuff. This situation continued to deteriorate throughout the 1980s and eventually a decision was made to create a standard for education to attempt to improve student performance. During the Clinton Administration, legislation requiring schools to implement a standards regime for both content and assessment was passed (NAE, 2009). The intent of this legislation while well-meaning, resulted in an emphasis on standards at the expense of curriculum and teaching. In effect, standards became rigid forcing curriculum to adapt and fit within the constructed context
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instead of being used as measurement of end result. Teaching in a standards driven environment created unintended consequences of school districts trying to game the results or teach to the test. This unhealthy focus on meeting standards changed the objective of education from one of learning, to one of meeting standards. There is no room for excellence in this type of program. In response to the failure of the Clinton Administrations reform efforts, President Bush proposed the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act. Many, including the author, consider the NCLB a blatant attempt to abuse the standards process to destroy the public teachers unions as well as privatize public schools for the benefit of corporate donors. Continuing the reform effort, President Obama made several cosmetic modifications to the program to address the worst side effects of the program but no one can show that the movement to standards has improved educational outcomes. One might surmise that standards where never the problem. Some, like the author, believe that desegregation was done without consideration of any potential negative side effects and was presumed to be inherently the right thing to do. To gain better control over expected standards, a majority of states have banded together to form what is better known as Common-core Standards to be applied throughout the United States. Objective of Standards President Clintons legislation, the Educate America Act of 1994 attempted to prescribe standards of content broadly in a variety of subjects without being too specific (NAE, 2009). The NCLB act focused on implementing assessment standards to provide accountability to stakeholders and force public schools into compliance or face closure. Whereas, the objective of the standards legislation was to improve school performance, instead of the standard being seen as the minimum, it became the maximum (NAE, 2009). A second objective of the standards movement was to provide a measurement of school improvement and reward teachers and
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION schools that performed well. To encourage schools to continually improve, each year the standard of measure increases. This had the unfortunate effect of creating a moving target for failing schools to hit with little regard for the make-up of a schools student-body. Given the continued poor performance by American students when compared to OECD countries,
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American students continue to rank near the bottom in math and science (Alliance, 2008). It is still too early to say whether the latest modifications will have a positive impact but many, including this author, believe it is too little, too late. Effectiveness of Standards One of the primary criticisms is the efforts by many teachers to teach to the test (NAE, 2009). With so much at stake, including potential loss of employment, school closure, and loss of students to Charter schools, many administrators and teachers feel they must perform well. Instead of continuing to teach a broad range of subjects to their students, teachers limit classes to mandatory curriculum and test preparation reducing the time normally devoted to Humanities and Social Sciences (NAE, 2009). This distortion of purpose has reduced the ability of students to critically think or apply knowledge learned in class to future problems (McClaren & Farahmandpur, 2006). However, in some areas, there is progress in basic skills. Assuming the test results are not inflated or cheating does not take place, overall test scores have begun to rise (NAE, 2009). The question remains are test scores really going up, or has the standard been lowered to improve student opportunities to make the grade? Criticism of Standards Like in most decisions, the effectiveness of standards depends on the type or quality of students. Students performing at expectation value the influence standards have brought to the classroom. Aligning the curriculum to expected-standards resulted in improvements in teaching
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION methods and the introduction of rubrics throughout the system reducing subjectivity. This has
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resulted in a stronger program for a large majority of students (NAE, 2009). For students with learning disabilities, slow-learners, non-English speakers, and fast-learners, the rigidity of standards interferes with devising alternative curricula to meet the needs of these students (McClaren & Farahmandpur, 2006). Obviously, school administrators need the ability to either adapt standards to meet their specific requirements or schools must implement at least three levels of standard. For many slow-learners or special-needs-students, modifications offer an opportunity to provide a different expected outcome without penalizing the student (APA, 2011). For advanced students, magnet schools as well as gifted programs attempt to fill this gap. However, many schools desperate to bring slow-learners and special-needs-students up to speed sacrificing gifted programs to husband scarce resources. This author maintains that a National Standard should be established for three levels of performance. The chart above shows the model used in Switzerland, the author believes we can learn a lot from our more successful neighbors. The first tier would be assigned to college and university bound students and provide the guidelines necessary for successful entry into higher education. The second tier would encompass students bound for professional or technical careers necessitating a basic apprenticeship or two-year degree program. The third tier would be made up of students attending traditional vocational training for trades such as brick laying, electricians, plumbers, carpenters, and auto mechanics. These students would engage in formal apprenticeship programs that meet the national standard to develop mastery in a trade as well as the expected related academic requirements. To ascertain a students readiness for these programs, tests would be given at the end of 5th and 8th grade. To graduate, students would be
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION required to pass a national high school examination demonstrating competency in their completed course work.
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To ascertain the best way to meet standards, local schools would adapt state curriculum for their own circumstances. If necessary, school days could be lengthened as well as school years. Students would be encouraged to participate in online as well as platform education providing the best mix of learning along with differentiated instruction. Standards should be there much like guide-rails on a highway, keeping teachers and schools from straying too far without locking them into specific speeds or outcomes. Standards outside the US Before committing to one or another level of standard, American educators must keep in mind standards found in other countries. Americas inability to maintain a high quality education over the past 40 years has led to a reduction in economic performance and ceiling on industries ability to respond to competitive threats. Employees in shuttered industries lack the necessary skills immediate move to alternative employment opportunities. Any standard adopted by the United States must consider the international implications. One common refrain many people suggest is that America should adopt the Finnish or Singapore models. Unfortunately, these are very small countries with the ability to tailor their programs to specific needs or leverage the monoculture nature of their societies. One standard that bears consideration is the German and Swiss standard employing what is referred to as the ABC track system. In secondary school students are directed into one of three tracks, academic, professional, and vocational (Just Landed, n.d.). Recommendations
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Absent from the discussion are methods to motivate and involve parents in student outcomes. Whereas, teachers and administrators lament the seeming lack of involvement by
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parents, the standards movement focusing squarely on the teacher who happens to have limited influence on a childs motivation (NAE, 2009). To motivate children, the author recommends that students be required to master basic skills based on a standard before advancing to the next level. Instead of following a class system, students should follow an independent educational plan. This plan ends the production model of the modern public school developed during the 1950s and replaces it with a flexible model able to adapt to a students changing circumstances and abilities (Robinson, 2010). A second recommendation is to base acceptance on entering any of the three alternatives for high school on merit. Students decide which track to follow based on their performance on the 5th and 8th exam. Parents and students understanding the high stakes nature of the test will be encouraged to study more relieving teachers of much of the burden for increasing student performance. To avoid the issue of racism, there would be alternative track for promising minority students to supplement performance permitting schools to offset the historical imbalance of minorities in college preparatory programs. This alternative track would be open to students whose communities faced historical discrimination as well as talented nonnative English speakers. The final motivator to get students to remain in school and do well would be a bonus of $2,000 for graduation and the possibility of a second bonus of $1,000 for students meeting a pre-defined score on the national high school exam. Wrap-Up The movement towards more standards based education during the Clinton Administration has failed to achieve its primary goal, improving the quality of education in America (NAE, 2009). Results have been mixed and one must conclude that standards alone will
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not achieve the desired outcomes. President Obamas recent changes are as stated previously to new to evaluate their influence. Stakeholders are impatient and expect tangible results in a short time. With the implementation of Common-core Standards between states, a national movement to impose a national standard has developed (NAE, 2009). The author believes this movement will have the opposite effect and reduce creativity and learning in the classroom. In the coming election of 2012, a number of issues will be presented. The author expects the general publics attitude to support wholesale reform of what appears to be a broken system. During the campaign, the author will be promoting the idea of the A, B, and C system, apprenticeship programs, and bonuses for graduating to improve the performance of students. The adoption of a National Standard with three assessments based on university entrance requirements as well as employers in the marketplace will provide a general standard for teachers and administrators to prepare appropriate pedagogy. Valid Concerns A valid criticism of the authors recommendations is that the ABC system results in pigeon-holing (Just Landed, n.d.). Students are directed to one or another track early on in education limiting opportunities. The hope is that through well-managed curriculum, this particular problem could be avoided. A second criticism will be the appearance of unequal outcomes because some students go to college and others do not have the opportunity (McClaren & Farahmandpur, 2006). That situation exists today with many students unable to go to college because they did not complete a proper educational program. Students continue to have the opportunity to attend college through evening and weekend programs much like many students do today. To reduce the negative impact, a one-year preparatory program could be offered to high-performing vocational and professional students to offer college as an additional alternative.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Energy Independence and Clean-Energy Whether one believes that global warming and climate change are caused by man, the
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sun, or both belies the real crisis facing our nation. America is fighting multiple wars to secure an oil network resulting in the destabilization of numerous countries including Americas economy. Energy independence should be the nations first priority and the second one should be to reduce oil and other fossil fuels as primary energy sources. The simple expediency of promoting world peace makes this a priority, not to mention the advantages to the environment. Regardless of ones position on climate change, all Americans can agree it is time to stop the fighting and move on to peaceful coexistence. If America does not achieve energy independence then all the treasure consumed and all the lives lost will have been in vain. Interestingly, some would say that energy independence would lead to greater instability and war because countries that would normally not be friends become friends to promote trade (Dirmeyer, 2011). Whereas, a certain logic exists in this thought, the US has been fighting resource wars for the better part of the 20th century and it appears that they will continue well into the 21st century. One may feel that the risk of a future war is less risky than continuing to fight the ones America is fighting now. Only a neo-classicist could suggest fighting a war to avoid a war is the best solution. With America poised to go to war with Iran after two debilitating wars in Ira and Afghanistan, one may consider this theory to be invalid. Others suggest that energy autonomy is the most important goal but how does America determine which countries should be included in an autonomous region? Certainly, Canada and Mexico should be included because they are large suppliers of petroleum now. Analysts suggest including the OECD as reliable partners and working towards a goal of energy autonomy for the OECD members (Strauss, 2011). Ultimately, the broader the autonomous group, the more
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difficult it is to support. The preference of this analysis is for a NAFTA only program with the goal of ultimately developing energy independence through renewables. The first step on this path to independence is to replace the oil imports that America receives from non-NAFTA countries. Specifically, America receives an average of 3.5 million barrels a day from Arab countries (EIA, 2011). Ultimately, as a nation we should produce this oil from algae feed-stocks through a process of enzymatic conversion but we are still a few more years from going into commercial production (Algae, n.d.) and a decade away from complete substitution. Most algae processes produce bio-diesel for use in commercial vehicles. To fully exploit the potential of bio-diesel, America would need to convert its automotive fleet over to diesel-based engines. In the meantime, we can begin developing some of our own home-based oil reserves trapped in the tar-shale and tar-sands fields in an environmentally friendly way. This is a dirty process and one must take into consideration the environmental factors. With proper forethought, planners can provide alternative supplies of water, construct nuclear power plants to provide electricity, and create a reserve fund to mitigate damage to the environment. Tailings can be used in construction as raw material and other environmental waste processed safely and efficiently. This means that profits will be lower than they could be requiring some price protection for investors. However, with the war costs running an average of $2 billion a week for Afghanistan alone, it would seem we can afford some price protection. Further, developing these sources of crude oil to a flow-rate of 10 million barrels per day production level would replace a significant amount of our daily imports without having to drill in the ocean or Arctic Reserves. Bio-Algae Oil
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Bio-Algae oil presents an attractive alternative to food or vegetable-based oils because it takes far less land to convert to production. When one looks at oil seed crops, palm oil has the best yields producing roughly 5,000 liters per hectare, whereas canola oil and others produce about 2,000 liters per hectare. Corn oil is one of the lower producing oil seed plants and like ethanol production requires subsidies that America cannot afford. The problem with palm oil is that it gels at low temperatures presenting distribution problems in temperate zones. Bio-Algae on the other hand can produce as much as 40,000 liters per acre with advanced processing technology. This increased yield makes it an attractive alternative and preferable from a resource consideration. A valid criticism of using oil seed plants for fuel is the removal of the land from food production. One of the reasons cited for the food riots in 2008 were government subsidies to produce ethanol to meet proposed fuel guidelines. The production of corn ethanol reduced the total crop size available for export in the US and led to riots in Haiti and other countries resulting in government turn-over. It would seem that in the interest of stability an alternative to oil-seed crops must be found that does not displace food production. Bio-algae meets those requirements and is well developed technologically for large commercial investments. This analysis targets bio-algae based products to displace 10 to 15% of Americas petroleum requirements as well as 50% of the natural gas used for generating electricity. Bio-algae should be considered a suitable replacement for the gas currently produced through fracking. Tar-Sands Oil in Canada No self-respecting environmentalist can remotely consider this project to be conducive to the ecology of Canada. Unfortunately, the oil exists and no amount of activism of judicial deterrence is going to stop this resource from being exploited. The money is just too big and the
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potential profits too huge for people to ignore. Environmentalists need to not aid and abet but find ways to reduce the environmental impact. One of the biggest problems will be watershed damage as ash and byproducts leech toxic sludge into local rivers and streams killing fish and other animals dependent on the watershed. To mitigate this environmentalists should push for a $2 to $3 per barrel tax to be set aside for a water processing system to improve the water quality currently being dumped into the river. A bigger concern is the use of by-products to fuel the retort processors that consume an estimated 1 energy unit for every three energy units produced. This process creates a huge amount of CO2 as well as other heavy metal particulates that are being released into the atmosphere thwarting all of Canadas efforts to meet the Kyoto Protocol mandates and in fact partly responsible for torpedoing the most recent conference in Durban during December 2011. To better manage the energy requirements of the processing sites, Canada should construct a minimum of a 750MW nuclear power plant to provide electricity to the processing centers. The power plant could be financed with Federal loan guarantees and bonds over a 10year period with a plant expected life of 30 years, equivalent to the expected production life of the tar-sands projects. By placing a $5 tax on each barrel of oil produced, the power plant could be paid for over a 6-year period and the cost of infrastructure improvements funded by the balance. This would dramatically curtail the production of CO2 in the production process and generate a greater yield from the field benefiting the environment, allowing Canada to meet its treaty obligations and reduce the cost of tar-sands production by upwards of 50%. America should insist on this type of improvement by placing a carbon tax of $10 on each barrel of tarsands oil to encourage Canadian producers to lobby the government to begin construction. Once ground has broken, the import tax could be reduced by $5 to support the Canadian efforts.
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These activities would take place in the northern portion of the states and in Alberta. We recommend the construction of two oil refineries, one for shale oil and one for tar-sand oil in Detroit to avoid transporting this toxic crude across the United States in an unrefined state. Tarsand oil is heavy oil characterized by high bitumen content, whereas shale-oil is lighter and supports a broader variety of by-products such as jet fuel and parrafins. Until large quantities of oil were discovered in the middle east, shale-oil was commonly produced in the United States. Shale-Oil Producing shale-oil in the United States is every environmentalists nightmare, second only to drilling for oil in ANWAR or the Gulf of Mexico. However, to achieve energy independence, one must consider the vast potential of shale-oil in three locations, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Within these three sites, there is more oil than all the proven liquid reserves in the world. Essentially, exploiting these resources moves peak-oil back 100 years. Further, it is sure that when oil supplies tighten due to increased global demand raising prices, the oil companies will be clamoring to bring these resources online. There have been two major studies of the potential of shale-oil to meet world demands, one by the European Union in 2006 and one by the Rand Corporation in 2005. The EU report provided significant detail about the process and cost estimates of $25 to $30 per barrel to produce the oil in Europe. When Rand looked at the cost numbers, they estimated $75 to $90 per barrel during the first 12 years of a pilot project and then dropping to $48 per barrel thereafter. The numbers in the Rand report did not seem well presented and a deeper study may find the results are closer to the European numbers than the Rand numbers. One might say that the Rand study used overly conservative numbers to under represent the vast potential of these resources.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION At present 70 to 80% of the recoverable oil is on public lands and it is in the interest of oil companies to minimize the royalty to be paid to the government for exploiting this resource.
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Just to highlight the findings of the Rand report, approximately 2.5 million barrels of oil can be recovered from one acre of land on much of the site in Colorado. That is a phenomenal amount of oil and more prolific than any liquid field. The site has roughly 500 to 1,000 feet of soil covering most the terrain with another 1,000 to 2,000 feet of shale that must be dug-up and processed. The problem with this type of work is that the site needs to be completely scooped out, ground up and processed for the retorts creating a waste pile 50% larger than the original material. This will destroy the local flora and fauna as well as any historic scenery in the immediate area. Like any strip-coal mining operation, it will create tremendous dust and water pollution issues. This is a huge project entailing massive investment, infrastructure development, and community planning. In fact, this project is so big that this analysis recommends that the government create a state-owned oil company to manage it. State-Owned Oil Company The biggest threats to oil companies has been state-owned enterprises emerging as strong well-financed competitors. These three production sites could easily yield 24 million barrels of oil a day for 150 years meeting the entire requirements of the United States assuming static growth. At a projected 10 million barrel per day capacity, this analysiss recommendation, the company would have gross revenues of $1.1 billion per day at todays price of $110 per barrel. This would produce between $400 and $500 billion per year in profits for the nation. If these lands are leased to private companies to develop, the taxpayer will receive estimated royalties of about $100 billion a year plus tax receipts of about $50 billion if the tax payers are lucky.
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Leasing these lands to private investors is simply giving the nations wealth to the oil companies in exchange for glass beads. The primary advantage of a state-owned company besides retaining the profits is the ability to manage the environmental issues directly without having to go through the courts every time there is a spill due to cost cutting by private companies. The project could be designed from the start keeping in mind watershed issues, water-sourcing issues, power plants, and minimizing impact on wildlife in an ecologically friendly fashion. Make no mistake, it is still a strip mine with all that entails but some profits would be sacrificed to insure best practices and to minimize environmental impact. To meet some of the requirements, this analysis proposes the construction of 12 nuclear power plants over a 12-year period to supply clean-energy to the project. To meet the annual water requirements of 75 million barrels per year, this analysis proposes pipelines from distant water reservoirs in neighboring states where water is more plentiful, processing the water on site to remove any waste and then releasing it into the Colorado River improving the rivers flow. The biggest environmental concern for most people will be the potential poisoning of the Colorado River. Currently, there is a tremendous demand on the Colorado River limiting the ability of this project to take water directly from the river. Currently, there is sufficient ground water at the site to meet the projects requirements. The concern is that over time the water table will go down affecting the entire region, especially in years of light rainfall. Recent snowfall has replenished local aquifers but that situation cannot be considered normal and the region could easily return to previously experienced drought conditions. The pipelines obviate the need for tapping local watersheds and despite their projected $4 billion price tag, the pipelines will serve a secondary
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION purpose. This analysis proposes the construction of an ultra-modern high-density city on the reclaimed sites.
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A shale-oil processing industry of 10 million barrels per day in the tri-state region will produce 800 jobs per 50,000 barrels according to the EU study. That equates to 160,000 direct jobs and another 400,000 indirect jobs to support the projects. That will be a huge influx of people necessitating the construction of three small cities. This analysis proposes the construction of a joined metropolis spanning the tri-state area utilizing the nuclear power stations constructed to supply electricity, the independent water supplies, and the new surface transportation routes. Instead of piling up the waste by-products, the waste material could be converted to cheap building material, processed on site, and used to construct an emissions free living environment for upwards of 25 million people over the next 50 years. With close proximity to Denver and located along one of the proposed routes for a high-speed rail network, leveraging the infrastructure of this project reduces the invested cost and returns to the taxpayer a significant portion of the initial investment in infrastructure. These projects are going to last 100 years and planning an urban component demonstrates a long-term perspective instead of the narrow myopic one private companies follow. The advantage of building a city in the vicinity of the mining operation is that once the land has been mined, the site is already prepared for new construction and instead of returning it to a pristine wilderness, a difficult prospect in the best circumstances, the site will become the new plastics and technology manufacturing center needed for 21st century manufacturing employing 100s of thousands of workers. This type of urban planning is what is missing from the American system of development. Currently, there are 10s of thousands of coal-miners in Wyoming that will lose their jobs when we reduce our demands for coal. These workers could
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easily transition over to the new shale-oil industry providing a ready-trained workforce to meet the growth requirements. Constructing a coal-gasification plant in the Wyoming area would continue to support the coal mine reducing its need to sell coal overseas and export our pollution to the developing world. Only a state-owned enterprise could capture this big a project and manage it to completion without sacrificing the environment on the altar of quarterly earnings. Many Greens and environmentalists will find fault with this proposal but unless a Green managed enterprise directs the exploitation of these resources for the benefit of all Americans in an ecologically friendly manner, an executive of one of the major oil companies will. It is better to be at the head of the table, than outside the room looking in. Geothermal Energy There are still valid questions about the best way to produce clean-energy from a multitude of sources including solar, wind, wave, and geothermal. There are significant opportunities to produce geothermal energy in the Northwest, the Mojave, near Yellowstone, as well as countless other places in America. Specifically, the super-volcano near Yellowstone has enormous reserves of geothermal energy that could be captured, converted to steam, and used to replace coal-fired furnaces throughout America. Iceland provides nearly 90% of its electricity from geothermal sources throughout the island. Iceland has made tremendous strides in harnessing this power and America should do so as well. Sites with commercial potential should be identified, projects proposed with loan guarantees, and once approved constructed at all possible speed. Iceland has shown us the way and we must follow to achieve emissions free energy production. Ideally, 10 to 15% of our electricity could be produced through geothermal heat capturing processes. The one sticking point is transmitting this power. To avoid power losses, America will need to construct a
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION nationwide DC distribution system to transport electricity from remote sites to urban centers.
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Successful completion of this distribution system can be carried out by private companies again with loan guarantees and will form the backbone of our clean-energy plan. Most of America runs on AC power which is used by residences throughout America. The primary drawback of AC power is that there is a significant loss of power the further one gets from the power station. With DC, the power can be transmitted over long distances with very little loss. The problem is when one converts to AC, then there is a loss of power. Building a DC grid to supplement the AC grid with strategically located transformers allows small producers of solar, wind, and geothermal to tap into the system and produce power to meet the needs of the entire nation instead of only in their backyard. This would allow a greater participation rate by small producers enabling higher yields. Excess power generated during the day could be stored in large fuel cell depots and then redistributed at nighttime to meet spot requirements. This would insulate the system from power outages provided an automatic backup in the event of storms or other nefarious actions that might interrupt power. Solar-Mirror Farms The next step is to build 1 trillion megawatts of electric generating capacity from solarmirror farms. This represents about 28% of total generating capacity and 55% of current coalfired electricity generation. The plan is to invest seed money for site preparation and lease the sites to qualified companies and construct the farms with production guarantees to support bank lending. With purchase contracts, these companies should be able to get normal financing from investors without the need to provide loan guarantees. By retaining title to the land, the government will be able to seize the property if the power companies fail to perform as expected. With a two-year lead-time, one could expect working systems to begin coming on stream in 2015
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION and over a five-year period replace a substantial portion of our electric production from dirty coal to clean-renewable based sources. Between geothermal and solar mirror farms, the
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objective of our administration is to replace 70% of our current coal-fired power plants by the year 2018. To avoid a glut of electric generating capacity, the government will begin purchasing existing coal-fired plants from owners based on a formula to consider the current book value of the power plant and the market value of the plant given the expectation that the nation will eliminate all coal-fired plants by the year 2030. A number of companies have already begun site preparation in the deserts east of California to construct large solar-mirror farms. With a DC power grid initiated in the Southwest and extending across to Dallas and up to Colorado, the nation will be able to tie together its nascent new power systems and leverage this capacity to support new factories and cities in the Southwest. A large solar-mirror farm currently produces electricity in Spain and this analysis employs the commercial results from that facility to project the requirements for an American program. It is certain that the electrical requirements of the nation will continue to grow as temperatures continue to climb. Meeting these additional needs will be the major challenge of this program. Solar Panels There are good opportunities employing solar panels throughout the southwest and we support investments in this technology in this region of the country. It is felt that a base-level of support should be provided to this industry and continued efforts made over the next 5 to 7 years to cut the cost of kw production to $.50/kw instead of the estimated $3/kw now. Unlike the Obama Administrations abandonment of Solyndra to the vagaries of the market, this analysis proposes a captured manufacturer that will produce the first five-years of product under contract
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION for the state-owned power company allowing it to have a guaranteed customer enabling the
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company to develop primary markets with economies of scale instead of building revenues over time and facing stiff competition from the Chinese. This support will only be for the first fiveyears of the companys operations. Once we can achieve economies of scale and drive the costs to $.50/kw, solar panels will begin to be competitive with other forms of energy generation. There are a number of proposals including embedding panels in roads that provide exciting opportunities, however, we want to focus initially on technologies that have the best immediate applications. Coal Gasification Anyone that works in the coal-mining industry has to recognize that the future will not be in coal for our nation. Understanding that and finding alternative employment during these difficult times could be a very frightening prospect. To offset the decline in demand for coal, we propose the construction of two coal gasification plants to be financed by a mix of government funding and loan guarantees. The purpose of these processing facilities is to convert coal to either natural gas or petroleum. This process allows miners to continue working during the transition in our economy from coal to solar and geothermal power affording them time to locate alternative employment opportunities in one of the new high-density urban centers or continue working until retirement. These conversion plants are also part of our independence strategy and will provide an alternative source of natural gas to reduce the need for fracking. One advantage of these facilities is that waste CO2 could be captured at two installations and reprocessed instead of at 100s of coal-fired power plants across the nation. We believe that the technology necessary to take carbon out of exhaust stacks is less than 10 years away based on preliminary
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION designs enabling America to recapture carbon and reprocess it cheaply for the material requirements of carbon composite manufacturers.
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Currently, there are a number of designs for large induction towers to be located around the nation employing Calcium Hydroxide to bond with Carbon Dioxide in the air employing cooling tower technology at low costs and low maintenance requirements. This analysis supports the rapid construction of these towers across the nation in large metropolitan areas to begin removing CO2 from our atmosphere. The captured carbon will be reprocessed and used. Bio-Mass, Switch Grass, and Wind Other potential renewable energy sources include processing biomass and switch grass into ethanols and fuels. We want to be cognizant of the associated costs of producing these fuels and seek new technologies that use less energy than these processes currently consume. Wave power has some applicability in coastal communities and will receive funding as well as offshore wind farms. However, we do not anticipate any more than 5% of our national requirements coming from these alternative sources and will look for ways to enhance the technological development to make them more attractive. Balancing the Budget The largest criticisms of our policies are that we raise taxes during an economic downturn. This is true and increasing taxes will hurt growth prospects by reducing personal consumption or investment. These taxes are used to reduce the deficit by reducing borrowed money for government operations. This is a demand of the American taxpayer and we cannot ignore it despite the negative fiscal impact. We believe that we must change the character of the American budget so we propose a mixture of tax increases, spending cuts, and adjustments to the budget. In reviewing our proposals, we desire to increase taxes on high earners while decreasing
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION taxes on the poor and middle class. We believe that every $1 in tax cuts for the middle class
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provides enough stimulus to offset $3 in tax increase on the wealthy. This is related to changes in behavior. The $1 in tax cuts for the poor and middle-class will be spent right away, whereas the $3 in tax increase on the wealthy will come from bank savings currently doing nothing. Fiscally, that means that these tax increases are revenue neutral. The national sales tax is far different in character and effect. This increase will reduce some government borrowings, we estimate about $400 billion reduction in the budget deficit initially and the total impact will be about $1.2 trillion on the economy. This will produce a drag on the economy initially and we propose to delay this tax until January 1, 2014 to minimize its initial impact on the consumer. To offset this drag on the economy, we employ our job creation program and infrastructure plan. This program represents $2 trillion in spending. According to Paul Krugman, $100,000 in government spending represents the creation of one job at an average wage of $40,000, then this program will create 20 million jobs with incomes averaging $40,000 per year, this represents an additional $800 billion per year in personal income. It is this new income that will offset the negative action of raising taxes allowing the economy to continue to grow. Initially, this money will come from agency bonds issued with government guarantees representing a contingent liability for the taxpayer as well as from assets held by the FED. The third major impact on the economy is represented by the reduction in consumer debt. The debt reduction will provide a positive behavioral change as well as some stimulus. With lower mortgage balances, mortgage payments, student loan forgiveness, and debt relief, the average consumer will be more inclined to spend money. This will offset the two negative growth aspects of the economy by freeing up the bonds that are holding consumers back.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Removing the uncertainty even though it involves a tax increase is better for the markets than continued uncertainty when individuals make their decisions.
Projected Action - millions Debt Reduction for homeowners Debt Reduction for students Tax Increase on wealthy National Sales Tax Job Creation Package Totals Net Stimulus Total US Economy Stimulus as % of US Economy 2,000 ,000 3,875 ,000 2,509 ,000 15,000 ,000 16.7% Stimulus 1,300 ,000 57 5,000 Reduction
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166 ,000 1,200 ,000 1,366 ,000
(Projected total effects of stimulus package) The reality of stimulus programs is there is a lag between implementation and impact. That lag can be anywhere from six to eighteen months. Taking that into consideration, we estimate a net stimulus of only $750 billion the first year or 5% of the economy resulting in a net inflationary impact of 8% for 2013. With continued infrastructure spending during the first 3 years of our administration, the economy will eventually develop inflation necessitating higher interest rates and monetary responses to bring inflation under control. However, we believe the effects of inflation will be offset by productivity improvements resulting from investments in the economy reducing the need to raise interest rates above 5%. We also believe that with economic growth approaching 10% driven by government investment in the economy, investors will be encouraged to make investments in key areas complimenting the governments efforts.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Inflation Risks
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In any stimulus program, there is always the risk of inflation and in fact, in this case it is desirable initially. Currently, housing prices are falling and people are paying off debt, this creates a deflationary environment. The hazard of a deflationary environment is that we cannot grow and deflate at the same time. Paying down debt is a good thing but falling home values is not, so we must create some inflation to reverse that trend. If one creates the inflation without growth then one gets stagflation, a very negative outcome that the nation experienced under former President Carter. That is why it is critical to create growth while inflating the economy and why this stimulus program will be successful. The largest concern by policy makers now is how to escape the liquidity trap that the nation finds itself. (Attached to the end of this document is a thorough discussion on the nations liquidity trap and how stimulus helps correct for this.) Budget Cuts Thus far, this analysis has focused on stimulus activities and income tax changes but has not focused on budget cuts needed to enhance the operations of the government. The budget has continued to grow even though revenues have not presenting the taxpayers with a substantial deficit and funding problem. The anticipated deficit for 2012 is approximately $980 billion. This proposal includes tax increases of $166 billion from personal income taxes. That would reduce the deficit to $814 billion. By creating 20 million jobs, we will further reduce the deficit to about $750 billion by reducing unemployment and food stamp payments. The newly employed workers will contribute on average about $170 billion in employment and income taxes further reducing the budget deficit to $580 billion. We propose a minimum corporate income tax of 6%. Currently, corporations pay on average 3.5% tax on their earnings. The
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additional 2.5% tax will yield between $200 and $250 billion in revenues. If one uses the lower estimate, then the deficit will shrink to $380 billion. To eliminate this remaining deficit, one has to explore the general make-up of the Federal budget. The annual budget is about $3.8 trillion. Of that $780 billion is for Social Security payments. Even with a COLA of 5 to 10%, this analysis estimates that the Social Security fund will be cash flow positive during the first four-years of the administration so there is no need to make any immediate changes in the program. $490 billion represents discretionary-spending, $850 billion represents security and defense spending, $160 billion for interest payments, and the balance toward entitlements. By merging the Federal retirement program into Social Security, one can shore-up both programs and consolidate costs. By merging Medicare and the Federal Health Programs, one can consolidate costs and revenue sources. Social Security will be paid through normal payroll deductions, whereas Medicare/Medicaid/VA/Federal Health will become one program with both the 10% National Sales Tax and a continued payroll deduction to fund them for two years. That leaves personal income taxes and corporate taxes to support the general budget. Ideally, one needs to find $380 billion in spending cuts from the military and discretionary spending. One of the security programs that has grown out of control over the past 10 years is the TSA. This program has climbed from almost nothing in 2001 to about $60 billion a year in 2012. This analysis considers this program to be a gross violation of peoples civil rights and support the privatization of it and transfer of control back to the airports where it belongs. Eliminating this department will save at least $50 billion a year from our security budget. By transferring Veterans health benefits, the nation will also reduce costs by another $30 billion each year from the defense budget and the operating deficit. The $490 billion discretionary
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budget will drop by $75 billion to reflect unemployment and food stamp savings. This reduces the available funds to consider for cuts to $415 billion. The analysis proposes cuts of $25 billion for foreign aid and $25 billion from the agriculture department along with $15 billion in other departments bringing total non-defense discretionary spending to $350 billion. This will reduce our deficit balance to $235 billion per year. Currently, the defense budget is $750 billion. This analysis proposes cutting that to 2% of GDP and pegging it there. As the economy grows the defense budget will grow with it. Cutting defense will produce $400 billion in annual savings producing a surplus of $165 billion. However, it is anticipated that interest rates will go up by 2% adding $320 billion to the deficit leaving the nation with a net deficit of $155 billion after two years. It is expected that with economic growth, the deficit will be eliminated and a net surplus will occur in year 4. Reducing the deficit will act as a drag on our economy. If one simply cut the deficit, without providing stimulus, one would cause another 10 million jobs to be lost, the Ron Paul plan. That is why America must continue to support infrastructure spending for three years until the economy rebalances and tax receipts begin to improve. Once tax receipts return to a normal level, the nation should have a similar spending environment that occurred during the second Clinton term, small budget surpluses and strong economic performance.
Reducing the National Debt Heretofore, there has been no discussion regarding the national debt which seems to be attracting unusual attention in the media. This discussion is driven by a natural desire for people to see debt as bad and savings as good. This idea becomes particularly poignant in times of economic hardship when people are struggling to pay personal debts. Profligate spending by
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government at these times is impolitic and a common conservative concern. The truth is that the government has the option at any moment to simply print money and repay the debt. For many, that kind of thinking is considered heresy and illustrative of out of control Keynesianism. Any bond manager that has bet on the collapse of the US Treasury market soon discovers to his or her regret that the US can and will print money as needed preventing any collapse in the Treasury market. However, it is not in the nations interest to present itself as irresponsible so repayment of the debt must be considered. It is not possible to maintain a zero-interest rate policy indefinitely forgoing all monetary policy so scheduling a repayment of the debt must be considered. The outstanding national debt is somewhere between $15 and $15.5 trillion. At the end of 2012, the debt is expected to climb to $16 trillion. This provides a good working number to amortize over a reasonable time period. If interest rates rose to 5%, an approximate average of the past 40 years, then a payment of $1.05 trillion a year would pay off the debt in 30 years. Current personal income tax receipts are about $950 billion, so if the nation doubles the income tax rate for the next 30 years, it is possible to pay back the debt. If one were a spendthrift politician one might propose that but would find most voters disserting him or her on electionday. There is no possible way under the current budget structure and tax system that this debt could be repaid in the next 50 years. Instead, this analysis proposes using the revenues from the national oil company that would be created by the oil-shale projects. It is estimated that once the projects reach 10 million barrels a day, that the oil company would yield $400 to $500 billion. This analysis proposes that these funds be used to retire half the national debt over a 20-year period. This would not put any burden on the economy and provide a steady source of funds unrelated to normal taxes and
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outside the general revenues to avoid the inevitable sticky fingers of future politicians. To payoff the balance of the debt, the government would need to operate with a substantial surplus over many years, an unlikely prospect given the proclivity of politicians to cut taxes during good times to win votes. An alternative use of these excess profits would be to fund entitlements or tax rebates to taxpayers. This analysis considers that a short-sighted use of the funds because of the ecological damage that these projects will inflict upon the environment. To build support between conservatives and environmentalists for a state-owned oil company, there must be a mutually committed purpose other than making lots of money. A national commitment to reduce the national debt, provide energy independence, and 10s of millions of jobs would be a worthwhile effort to unite disparate parties behind a project that would otherwise be fraught with angst. Foreign Policy One of the greatest challenges facing America at this time is winding down its overseas deployments. To reach the goal of reducing the defense budget to a more sustainable level, the US must withdrawal its overseas forces from all theaters. That includes Germany, Japan, Korea, Columbia, the UK, Turkey, Libya, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Pakistan, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Afghanistan, and now Australia. Not only must America return its troops to the barracks but also bring the mercenaries home as well. The Dutch Navy supported the Dutch East India Company, and the US has been following that model for the past decade. The American military cannot be the protector of US commercial interests globally. America must rely on host countries to provide basic security just like everyone else relies on host countries. This security is a direct subsidy to Eurozone countries as well as Japan that is not reflected in trade values. Currently, the US forward deployment is unaffordable and hinders the
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normalization of relations with hostile countries. The US propensity to bomb (drones) first and ask questions later has made the US a pariah around the world. People fear America but they do not like America and that is a poor basis for a relationship. Acknowledging that America will continue to have some security commitments with various countries, America needs to wind those down in a speedily manner and begin the process of rebuilding a smaller leaner elite fighting force instead of a one designed to bludgeon enemies with large divisions of troops. During the first six months of a new administration, America will begin the draw down of overseas forces with a goal of 90% of the troops out in 90 days. America will retain a residual force of 10 - 15% to continue returning the equipment and stores that belong to US military forces and in some cases redeploying equipment and personnel to key bases maintained for humanitarian aid shipments. At the end of this process, America will have targeted 50 bases to remain under US military control with approximately 10,000 soldiers committed to operating and maintaining those bases. This drawdown will create an immediate change in the International arena allowing discussions with parties including the Iranians and others who refuse to negotiate with us until we reverse our offensive posture. A primary goal must include normalizing relations with countries like Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela to insure continued world peace. Maintaining a hostile profile costs the nation money, limits the ability of diplomacy to solve problems, hurts trade relations, and invites terrorist attacks. After rebalancing the military posture, the US will take the lead on climate change and reducing carbon emissions throughout the world. The US will work on a country-by-country basis to develop an agreed upon strategy to reduce carbon emissions without putting an undue burden on developing countries or damaging the US economy. Programs that increase the number of acres of forestation will be promoted as well as installing solar-power facilities
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worldwide. When economical, the US will subsidize the installation of solar-power installations to replace coal burning to encourage more solar-power in the developing world and reduce the reliance on coal as a primary fuel. This will have the secondary benefit of providing greater production demands for our own solar-panel manufacturers improving economies of scale offering savings for everyone. Europe, OECD, and Japan Despite occasional currency issues, we believe that trade between the US, Europe, and Japan is largely one of equality and does not need any immediate initiatives to facilitate a change. Germany has demonstrated time and again that companies paying decent wages can still compete in the new economy. Reducing regulations or average wages might be necessary to compete with China on an unfair field but based on the European experience it is obvious that when all things are equal, American companies can hold their own. Developing World including Brazil and Russia There continue to be conflicts with individual countries that require attention but none so great as with China and India. America should resolve most disputes through bi-lateral agreements and propose opening negotiations to resolve these disputes rather than include them in our current disputes with China and India. It is hoped that by working closely with the various developing countries America can use trade as a tool to reduce carbon emissions worldwide. NAFTA The special relationship that America enjoys with its neighbors Canada and Mexico is a critical part of its energy independence strategy. Canada and Mexico will remain the nations primary suppliers of petroleum, wood products, and cost effective manufacturing. Currently, 10% of the Mexican population is living and working in the US and one can expect that number
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION to double over the next 40 years. It is vital that America maintains good relations with both
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neighbors and coordinates its economic policies to avoid disruptions. At this time there is little benefit to a NAFTA currency union, nor is there any support for a political union at this time. America should support the open movement of labor between these nations as a positive way to build trust and goodwill as well as balance future labor shortages created by future growth and declining birthrates. Durban Conference and the Kyoto Agreement The failure of the Durban conference resulted from Chinese and American disagreements resulting from current unfair trade practices exhibited by China and poor American policy responses. The Obama Administration demonstrated a lack of vision and leadership by not offering a positive way to meet the needs of developing countries. Certainly donating large sums of money to an international organization without strings attached is a difficult proposition during the current economic malaise faced by the US and its trading partners but that is no excuse for not advancing the agenda. America is foremost the biggest polluter and the largest economy necessitating its participation for any global initiative to succeed. The focus on shortterm profits at the expense of long-term relationships by the US, Canada, and China is appalling. Instead of acting like mature global actors, America and Canada demonstrated a childish selfish response to a very real problem, increasing carbon concentration in the atmosphere. Putting this problem off for 8 years is not a resolution. Instead, America should have committed to providing $50 billion a year in in-kind support. This is not a blank check to fund someones pet projects but a directed development program to support American foreign policy objectives, American manufacturers, and American workers. America could fund nuclear power plants through loan guarantees to be repaid or
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION partially paid by future power generated in developing nations. America could supply solarpanel installation to remote areas with good solar days to developing countries from its new factories in the US. America could supply large bio-mass conversion plants to agriculturally based nations to accelerate the development of non-fossil fuel renewable energy. There are a
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host of ways that the US could have met the needs of the world community without damaging the US economy. In the future, America must be willing to step-up to the plate and offer an attractive package defying other developed nations not to follow. This administration did not show leadership, only petulance, missing an opportunity to promote US exports and avoid charges of subsidizing them. The US should agree to a 10,000 ton target for each citizen in 10 years based on todays population, resulting in a 40% reduction and demand that China and India agree to the same number. America can achieve this much more cost efficiently than China can hold their production of carbon emissions back. Simply by eliminating much of Americas coal power plants, America can reach this target and it can do so profitably. Allowing China the additional growth allows America to appear to be compromising when America is placing a real future drag on the Chinese economy. Currently, China is producing roughly 5,800 tons per person per year. Now China will be put in the position of spoiler in the Durban treaty talks instead of the US and Canada. Nuclear Arms The US should engage in a unilateral reduction of its unaffordable nuclear stockpile to 500 warheads with an ultimate goal of 20 warheads in future negotiations. The US should invite Russia to match its reduction and negotiate with the other nuclear powers to reduce stocks and/or cease production of new weapons. These weapons are costly to maintain, offer no appreciable
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security, and are undeployable in a real conflict. In short, they are white elephants and the US space program can put the recovered plutonium to use in its efforts to explore the universe. The US will continue to purchase plutonium and enriched uranium to reduce worldwide stockpiles and redeploy into space activities. The current rush by the Iranians to develop nuclear weapons, results from the proliferation of nuclear weapons by Israel and Pakistan. To reverse this trend and reduce the drag that weapons development places on the global economy, America must take the first step. From simple practicality, if the US and Russia abandon nuclear weapons that other nations would have a reason to abandon their weapons as well. The US possesses sufficient conventional weaponry just as devastating and deployable as nuclear weapons. China is adding to its stockpile from fear that the US is intent on isolating it and attacking it through proxies. This neo-conservative need to control the worlds resources is reflective of an out-dated paradigm. It will be decades before the Chinese military could reach parity with the US military and within that span, the US could improve its weapon systems substantially minimizing the Chinese advancements.
US Defense Policy A stated goal prior to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars was the ability to fight two medium or small wars in different theaters of operation. In the future, most military engagements will be limited to short-peace keeping assignments, regional disaster relief efforts, and minor brush wars. This type of conflict or engagement requires a different military strategy and force configuration. Instead of large carrier battle groups, divisions of heavy armor, and large bomber
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fleets, America needs a light highly mobile specialized force composed of special purpose units including a civilian component. The American military of the 21st century should continue to support a medium-sized Navy of 8 carrier groups to maintain a superpower position but supplement the Navy with smaller mini-carriers for evacuations during disasters with special purpose ships including hospitals and food supply tenders. The Air Force should be scaled back to provide US border defense and airlift capability for peace-keeping missions. Less attack aircraft and more support aircraft for the emerging requirements. There is no immediate requirement for an advanced fighter and this analysis will recommend the cancellation of the F-35 and F-22 programs. These aircraft are ridiculously expensive and represent a capability to fight a nonexistent enemy. Neither Russia nor China are currently investing in huge quantities of aircraft, instead both are upgrading aircraft to defend their borders but not project beyond them. The pundits saberrattling in response to Chinas first aircraft carrier not withstanding. To win the battles of the 21st century, one must win economically, not militarily. The proposed cuts represent a 40% reduction in Naval assets with the intention to mothball a portion of the fleet removed from active duty reducing the number of carrier fleets to 8. New construction will be initiated on 6 new mini-carriers for relief support to replace 6 supercarriers removed from active duty with the oldest carrier scrapped completely. Line ships will be redistributed to allow the newest craft to continue operation with portions of the previous carrier groups allocated to the new peacekeeping/relief missions. It is not expected that the Marines will see any major changes in force components. The Air Force would have a reduction of 30% of its fighter aircraft capability and 50% of the bomber fleet would be mothballed. We would increase the number of tankers and transports
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION by 25% to reflect the change in mission requirements. The rest of the fleet would see a
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reevaluation to reflect new mission objectives but it would be expected that helicopters would get an increase along with unmanned craft and trainers would decrease by 30% to reflect the need for fewer pilots. The Army would see the largest decrease in size eliminating all but one combined arms division. Special purposes units such as the 82nd and 101st Airborne along with Ranger battalions would become mechanized but maintained as light infantry for quick deployment. Special forces units would continue the same mission profile and could see staffing increases. The primary mission of the combined arms division will be the protection of the US mainland. This will present a posture change in central Asia by those nations, however, it is expected that Russia will respond positively to the reduced American presence and respond by reducing its need to posture in the region. To augment US military forces a new hybrid civilian component comprised of police, search and rescue, medical personnel, teachers, and sociologists will be created. The purpose of this force is to provide emergency relief and support functions in peacekeeping operations. Civilian personnel will train with their military counterparts to improve deployments and cooperation in the field. It is expected that this force could number upwards of 100,000 personnel. However, it will remain a civilian component without the rigorous discipline commonly found in military units. Making these changes will be difficult for many people in the nation. Some will feel that the nation is opening itself to attack or allowing itself to become complacent in the face of a resurgent Chinese military build-up. Unfortunately, past administrations have created phantom boogie-men to justify huge military budgets. The US currently spends nearly as much as the
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION entire world combined on its military. Even at 2% of GDP, the US military will spend 50% more than China and Russia combined. That is an extraordinarily expensive white elephant
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when one considers there are no nation-states currently at war with the US. Instead our military is engaged in police actions and terrorist hunting expeditions that create as many terrorists as it neutralizes. The current expenditure in the face of the economic problems now facing the US requires deep cuts in military spending. Without a declared enemy, America does not need to spend exorbitant sums on defense so a few hawks can sleep peacefully. A nations strength is not only measured by the size of its military but by its economic strength to support it. Space Consortium The US along with 20 nations continues to support the International Space Station (ISS). The US considers our participation to be a benefit to our international relationships and will continue to support the ISS and its partnerships. Under the new space program, the US will be unilaterally expanding the ISS to accommodate more scientists. The US will request that other countries participate in this expansion if they want to increase their astronaut presence on the ISS. America will offer partnerships to our ISS partners to participate in the new Moon base as well as the Mars missions. It is the intention of the US to leverage its increased emphasis on space technologies to improve relationships with developing countries. Africa The continent of Africa has all but been forgotten. Under a new administration, the US should make a stronger effort to support development projects through joint projects and financing. The nation of the Democratic Republic of Congo is especially in need of support and the US should attempt to increase American commercial participation in Africa to counter
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION balance the activities of the Chinese. Through the US program to reduce carbon emissions, America should seek to reestablish relationships and reinvigorate friendships. Middle East
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Nothing seems more intractable than the Middle East and all its quagmires. On the one hand, the US has given unswerving support to dictators and potentates alike paying lip service to democracy and crushing any nascent democratic movement. Ending the brief democratic government in Iran in the mid 50s led to the current impasse America now faces. Installing Saddam Hussein as a CIA errand boy may have brought a kind of stability but led to a reduction in American influence just when America needed to increase its influence. Continuing to propup unsustainable kingdoms in the Persian Gulf will only lead to a further decline in US prestige and influence. With limited options, now is not the time to double down and start an unwinnable war with Syria. To prosecute a war in Syria and Iran, the US would need to commit millions of soldiers, not the token forces needed to oust Saddam or overrun the Taliban. Any aggressive action on the part of the US will create negative responses from both Russia and China forcing the US to maintain troops in three theaters if for no other reason to provide deterrence. The US has neither the treasure nor the troops to sustain combat for any length of time and must ultimately fail. If the US were at the height of its economic power and it were the year 2000, then maybe, but now Russia and China are both on the ascendance, whereas America is descending economically. Muslim Brotherhood and Israel Despite the media pundits and President Obamas characterization of the Muslim Brotherhood and their Salafist allies as being peace loving and benign, nothing in the past 80 years of the Muslim Brotherhoods existence justifies that interpretation. In fact, just the
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION opposite can be perceived by their pronouncements and their association with Hamas. These
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organizations seek a political version of Islam including the imposition of Sharia Law throughout the Islamic world with the eventual domination of the world by a united caliphate. This is not some fanciful notion promoted by a few isolated clerics but the dominate theme of their combined message. With the intentional toppling of many of the regional power structures, a vacuum was created to allow the Islamic movements to take control. The obvious intention was to further radicalize the environment and create instability forcing a confrontation between the west and the Islamacists before the Islamacists can achieve critical mass. An early confrontation is deemed more advantageous than a later one but that horse left the barn a decade ago. The nation that will profit most from the instability is Israel and its territorial expansionism. With all eyes turned towards the surrounding Arab states engaged in political upheaval, Israel will continue to have a free hand in its policies toward the Palestinian people. Israel needs the water of the West Bank to support its settlement communities along with taking the Palestinian share of the water from the Kinnert. Israel cannot afford to lose those reservoirs or aquifers. Regardless of any existential threat, without sufficient water resources, Israel will be forced to engage in expensive desalinization. It is easier and cheaper to continue to annex the West Bank until it becomes impossible to separate the communities. Palestinians with limited earning potential will continue to be forced out either by lack of work or taking the Israeli bribe money to sell their land. In the end, Israel wants the Arab states to attack it justifying its requirement to retain the West Bank to act as a defensive buffer between it and Israel proper. This of course is sophistry given the large number of Israelis living within the buffer zone. Just as Arafat was unwilling to make peace with Israel likening himself to a modern Saladin, no Israeli leader wants to enter the
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION history books as having given up Judea and Samaria to the Caananites/Philistines. This is an
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unthinkable proposition and all of the parties in the negotiations understand this reality and pay lipservice to the two-state solution. Whenever it appears the two-sides are close to a settlement to keep their respective populations hopeful, some action interrupts the process providing a convenient scapegoat for the leaders to point to end the current progress and require a restart from the beginning. It is time to end this charade and get beyond the current strategy by acknowledging a common interest by both parties that was ignored by the original UN declaration. Had a proper plebiscite been conducted the partition would have been rejected out of hand. Whatever European guilt that possessed the decision-makers to force this partition on the Arab residents, it clouded their judgment precipitating this unhappy affair for the past 60 odd years. Continued instability is not in the economic interest of the American people. Certainly a few defense contractors and some speculators will profit from the instability but the future expected cost of negotiating a peaceful settlement exceeds what the American people can afford to pay in treasure, and in injured soldiers. Instead, America should begin a year-long process to merge the two governments, provide financial assistance to build infrastructure in the West Bank to support an influx of refugees and then allow the two peoples to learn to live among one another just the same as has happened in many other nations including the United States following its civil war. Israel maintains a pyrrhic victory only so long as the US is willing to underwrite their intransigence. However, the experience of South Africa should be a lesson for them that American support cannot be guaranteed forever and that an accommodation is in their best longterm interest. They should worry about the demographics later. Iran
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION When it comes to Iran there is no military solution that is practical or even imaginable
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short of employing weapons of mass destruction. With a population of 74 million, and a terrain nearly as foreboding as Afghanistan, Iran is well positioned to resist all but the most determined invasions. Whereas, America and Israel might be able to suppress the Iranian Air Force and rocket systems, it cannot be done without great cost and loss of aircraft. The bulk of those aircraft could be pilotless drones but some of them will inevitably include pilots. The American people are in no mood to watch American pilots paraded across the television screens in the same manner as the American hostages were during the1979 hostage crisis. Instead, it would seem retreat is the better option in the short-run to regroup our forces, provide them rest, and replenish our reserves. Once America ascertains the long-term intentions of the Iranian regime, America can more efficiently position a rested fighting force to meet future demands. A force of 20,000 in Kuwait is unable to deter a determined assault by Iranian armor and would be overrun very quickly leading to their capture and internment. This situation requires a political solution. It is inevitable that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons capability. With the plans in hand and the ability to enrich uranium, breakout from the current nuclear treaty is a foregone conclusion. As long as the US continues to impose tougher and tougher sanction regimes, America justifies Irans nuclear ambitions. Iran can claim victimhood and rightly so, on the world stage. Americas profligate use of drones to suppress any burgeoning Islamicists and impose its politically correct version of political Islam is transparent to the international audience. Imposing sanctions is an act of war and the resistance to those sanctions makes Iran a martyr in the eyes of Americas enemies overseas. Instead of winning allies to Americas cause the US continues to push more and more people away from it. Soon America will be the one asking Israel for support at the UN as the western nations finally recognize that Americas
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imperialistic ambitions are no longer in their interest. There is no upside to this conflict unless one is an oil trader. Southeast Asia Probably the most volatile region after the Middle East for American policymakers is ASEAN. With an ascendant China looking to expand its dominion over the South China Sea and claim its vast energy resources for its own, it is important that America remain a silent partner in resisting this endeavor. The various members of ASEAN want US support but they do not want the US to take a lead position, just remain a powerful friend ready to provide a bulwark against Chinese expansionism. These nations do not want to become embroiled in other disputes and used as pawns in superpower politics so American policy must be sensitive enough to influence decision-making without dictating policy. The US must maintain an observer status and develop bi-lateral agreements to support trade initiatives that preempt Chinese moves to dominate the economies of the region. America must be prepared to purchase goods from the region despite any negative consequences on the US economy. Of a particular concern is the recent Chinese moves to intimidate Vietnam. China has made substantial claims to Vietnamese territorial waters, including engaging in naval skirmishes and confrontations on at least five occasions in the past 10 years. These incursions into Vietnamese waters creates instability in the region as well as uncertainty for investors considering various opportunities. The US should seek a limited base agreement to provide servicing of its fleet reducing its presence in the Indian Ocean as the war in Afghanistan winds down and redistributing it to ASEAN waters. To offset this heightened presence, the US should reduce its forces in Okinawa and encourage Japan to increase its military commitment. This offers a balanced response where America can claim on the one hand that it is reducing its
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presence in Asia, while on the other hand improving its position within the areas most likely to experience hostilities. Korean Peninsula North Korea continues to be a minor flashpoint and irritant to regional stability. US troops should be withdrawn in concert with troop withdrawals in Okinawa. The Korean military is more than adequate to manage their North Korean brothers and without the American presence to demagogue, one may assume that the government of North Korea would quickly fall to internal pressures. Without an enemy to point to, the dear-leader would be recognized for the anachronism he has become. One might consider the influence China might be able to exert on South Korea but that influence would not suddenly change because China has not made any aggressive moves toward South Korea and would not profit by making any now. South Korea lacks natural resources and presents no threat to China. As a trading nation, South Korea is more important to China as an independent nation much like Hong Kong. Over time, Chinese influence will grow but that will happen anyway with or without US presence. BRICS In general, the US should support the ascendance of the new developed nation group known as the BRICS. With China and Russia being the primary movers, the US must provide a counter-weight to justify continued support from Brazil and India. Specifically, the US should support replacing the UKs voting seat on the Security Council by India and arranging a permanent seat for Brazil. To offset Britains loss, the seat of France should be given to the EU for the EU to determine an appropriate representative. Currently, too much influence and power is wielded by France and the UK without the ability to enforce decisions militarily. To be a veto member of the Security Council, a nation must be prepared to commit its military to enforce the
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votes of the Security Council. In practicality, the UK and France are punching way below their expected contribution and one could expect the EU to provide enhanced military participation when including Poland and Germany into the equation. Finally, giving India, the UKs seat is the last step to ending Britains colonial past. It was India that gave the UK its power and it is India that the UK must yield to. If India is going to be expected to cooperate with the US in the future to provide a counterweight to China, then the US is going to have to put something on the table. Given the UKs current economic difficulties, the hallowing out of its manufacturing environment and the dramatic reduction in its military capability, it can no longer shoulder its burden on the world stage. Latin American Communists These movements are a social reaction to American dominance in the region and the failure of democratic governments to overcome corruption. What is good for American business interests is not always good for politics. America should seek a rapprochement with Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. All three nations have large oil and gas reserves that could be exploited for mutual benefit. Encouraging revenue sharing with indigenous people and by supporting sovereign investment funds would do more for relations with these nations than continued aggressive conflict. Co-opting these nations into becoming more inclusive socialdemocracies does not in any way change our own position, it only takes away the potential for conflict in the future. Allowing these nations to naturally adopt market enhancement programs and supporting their passage into market-based relationships will provide greater stability and long-term profits for the region. It is essential that America retain a partnership relationship with local regional blocs particularly regarding Bolivian Lithium resources. America can always pull
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out its billyclub and restore its historic confrontational relationship but at this time of economic weakness, a friendly wave might do far better in achieving US medium-term goals. DOHA Treaty Despite the limitations of the treaty, America should appear ready to sign it to advance the agricultural potential of the third world. This will put the Europeans on the spot and place them in a more difficult position. Instead of funding Ethanol subsidies for corn, these subsidies should be redirected to tree planting providing funds to farmers to plant trees on lower yielding land. These subsidies would not be effected by the DOHA treaty and the reduction in Ethanol production will help America meet its carbon emissions goals. The sugar industry should be deregulated allowing Brazilian sugar imports as well as Brazilian Ethanol to trade freely. This would improve our relationship with Brazil and provide cheaper less carbon demanding Ethanol in the US. Finally, a new small farmer program should be initiated to encourage hydroponic farming under the impetus to reduce carbon emissions related to transport. A carbon tariff could be added to the DOHA treaty that would kick-in after ten-years to encourage nations to sign but provide the incentive to improve transportation efficiencies by exporters. The Two-Party System Prior to Ronald Reagans election in 1980, both parties seemed to compete along predetermined lines of interest. The Republicans represented small government but responded to social concerns and issues. Had President Nixon not been forced out of office, generating a cloud over Republican politics, the conservative wing may not have taken power. In response, the Democrats seemed to have become more Liberal encompassing a collection of disparate interests under one tent. That seems to be the Achilles heel of the Democrats, their primary uniting factor is that they are not Republicans. Under the big-tent, you have minority interests
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which often conflict with one another, progressives, blue-dogs, and a coterie of special interests. Rarely can Democrats find common cause beyond their dislike for Republicans. Despite being smaller, the Republicans manage to practice divide and conquer policies on the Democrats leaving them high and dry. With Reagans presidency, the Republicans steadily moved to the right and forced out many of the former Rockefeller Republicans which represented a liberal strain in the party. These Republicans are socially liberal and economically conservative but find themselves cast in the wilderness by the conservative Christians who dominate party decision-making. This inexorable march to the right has left the party with a narrow base to choose candidates from that rarely reflect the national mood. Without employing demagoguery, it is nearly impossible for Republicans to generate enough electoral support to win in presidential contests. The election of George Bush still remains a question because of his failure to win the popular vote. As the nation has moved steadily leftward, it is even more unlikely that such a conservative Christian base could support a candidate moderate enough to do well in the general election. Democrats recognizing the success of George Bush and other candidates concern themselves with appearing moderate and often ignore the progressive side of the party. This creates a certain amount of angst among supporters because they perceive their views as not being important to party leaders. Often times, progressives are much more ideologically based rather than practical with their demands which comes from an intellectual approach to problem solving. This attitude often creates conflict with other groups who resent an appeal to intellect over what they deem is common sense. Whether progressives are right or wrong becomes lost in the arguments between disparate groups and very little gets accomplished politically. President Obama has all but ignored progressives in his efforts to appear mainstream and as a moderate.
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The two-party dichotomy has led to an incestuous relationship between the two with each party alternating control of the executive branch providing voters with the belief that they are making real choices. At times it appears that the candidates go out of their way to torpedo their own campaigns at the very last minute. Despite winning the popular vote, and real disputable issues in the general election, Vice President Al Gore did not challenge the Bush results allowing Bush to become President. When it appeared that John McCain was going to win handedly against young upstart Barack Obama, McCain chose Sarah Palin a virtual novice to be his running mate dooming his election. In 2012, the Democrats have all abandoned the contest to President Obama despite his glaring weaknesses and the many potential candidates that could easily defeat him in a bruising primary. This has allowed President Obama to present a unified front against a divided Republican front-line. The Republicans for their part have fielded second-tier candidates in 2012 with the party favorites choosing to sit out and watch from the sidelines. Had the party fielded more popular candidates, President Obama would stand little chance of victory. Whereas, the election will not be a sure-win, President Obama will have to work for it. Others might conclude the Republicans prefer not to be in power during the continued downturn preferring to lay blame for the economic malaise at the feet of the Democrats. Through restrictions and preferences, the two-parties limit the ability of third parties to present a viable alternative. Green Party The Green party originates in Europe and promotes a more socialistic agenda putting peoples welfare, reducing pollution, and the negative effects of rampant consumerism ahead of the needs of commercial interests. This party remains popular with far-left progressives and young college students but rarely can attract more than 2% of the general population. Many
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blame Ralph Naders campaign in 2000 for the loss suffered by Al Gore. Had Al Gore been less centrist and more responsive to progressives, that would have never been an issue. The one attraction for some voters is the Greens steadfast opposition to the wars. Some of the Green Party platform could be considered socialist in nature with its support for the Green New Deal. One should consider the party platform a future goal and vision statement. Whereas, there are some members that are difficult to negotiate with, the majority have a primary concern with making social relationships better, treating one another equally, and changing from a consumer driven society to one based on respect for nature. Most Americans can identify with these goals and in truth, Green party supporters represent a frontier tradition of Americanism that existed before big business began taking over the nation. Immigration and Undocumented Workers Let us offer a proposal and then tell you why. We believe that it would be a humanitarian disaster to try and deport 12 million undocumented workers from the US. Further, it would be hugely expensive at a time when every penny counts. Therefore we propose the following: 6 month tourist visas for Mexicans and Canadians, an initial 1 year work permit with the possibility of getting 3 year renewals for all workers that are employer sponsored from Mexico and Canada with a fee of $250 per permit, a reduction in the minimum wage to $5/hour for workers in this program, and 500,000 H1B visas for graduates of US colleges. We are all immigrants For many, the immigration issue creates one of the most racially divisive issues in America today. Whereas it is natural for people to view new comers with suspicion, especially when they dress a funny way, talk a funny way, and do funny things. America has always looked askance at immigrants despite the fact that 95% of us come from immigrants.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Puritan Invasion
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The first famous immigrants came from England and Holland to escape persecution for their religious beliefs. Their political leader Oliver Cromwell had led a revolution in England deposing the king and created a new government based on a President. Sadly, he was unable to get beyond his religious dogma and was deposed by the English people and replaced with a new king. After he was deposed, Puritans began fleeing religious persecution along with others and landed at Plymouth Rock. Democracy came from England These people brought with them their notions of democracy and eventually led another revolution against another English king. These men felt that they had a special relationship and earned the right to run their new country. As successive waves of immigrants came to run their factories and do their labor, they accepted them begrudgingly. However, eventually the kind of immigrant began to change from white to brown to Asian and finally Mexican. For ironic entertainment watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhEl6HdfqWM End of slavery brings Chinese The first immigrants after the revolution were mostly western Europeans. There was a similarity in culture and belief and they were readily accepted. America needed more people to farm and expand its territories. African slaves were no longer permitted to be imported so immigrants filled the gaps. Then western companies needed cheap labor to build the railroads and imported large numbers of Chinese trying to escape the western and Japanese aggression there. Suddenly, people became concerned about who was coming to America. To deny this was a racial issue would be intellectually dishonest. The Jewish Invasion
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Beginning in the 1870s, the Russians decided to solve their Jewish problem by expelling 1/3rd of the them, killing 1/3rd of them, and keeping the rest as indentured slaves on farms. This happened repeatedly with each pogrom bringing new immigrants to American shores. The new native Americans were now becoming really concerned. With the onset of WW I, eastern Europeans began to arrive in large numbers and finally, Congress closed the doors to open immigration. The nation that built itself on the backs of immigrants had put up a wall against new immigrants, no longer a refuge for the worlds poor and hungry, just another country in the global network. It's about culture not color After WW II, the nature of immigration began to change with mostly South Asians and Chinese desiring to come to America and of course our neighbors to the south. Because immigrants of the past 50 years are not white, any opposition to their arrival is cast as racist. The truth is somewhere in the middle. It is our position that this is not so much a racial issue as one of culture. Look at peoples responses. They want an English Only school system. They complain that people dont follow the same customs or respect the same rules. These are all evidence of a cultural struggle as much as a racial one. Return civility to the dialogue With nearly 12 million undocumented immigrants, what we used to call illegal aliens, from Mexico, it is impossible to object to immigration without appearing racist. The supporters of these immigrants have used this as a wedge to try and divide the opposition with only limited success. Eventually, the cry of racism lost its sting and has become a badge of honor among many Tea Partiers. To improve the tone of the dialogue, we recommend that we stop calling everyone racist and at least give people an opportunity to voice their opinion in a civil manner.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Lets strip out the racial component and just deal with the facts. We have 12 million
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undocumented people living in the US. That is a problem. Further, some would confer special treatment on these people but that violates the norm of one law for everyone. Like the Israeli/Palestinian problem, at some point we have to acknowledge facts on the ground. The people are here and it is too expensive to send them home. I prefer to fix the system to avoid repeating the same problem over and over again. To deport every undocumented worker would cost at least $16.8 billion dollars. We don't have the money. Do Americans want these jobs? The first issue, people are not coming to America because we dont want them. We need cheap labor or labor willing to do the dirty work no one wants to do. Honestly, who likes cleaning toilets or digging ditches in the hot sun? We believe that if someone has a job and that employer is willing to sponsor an immigrant, that person should get a work permit. Does that take jobs away from Americans, sure it does. For Americans, we are proposing a new jobs program to provide jobs for Americans that will leave plenty of the less than desirable jobs for immigrants. Give tourist visas, spend money Second, they snuck in illegally. Many immigrants did break the law but when it comes to Mexicans, they are our neighbors and we have to find a way to live in peace with them. We propose that we grant all Mexican citizens an automatic 6 month tourist visa which is the same thing Americans get when we go to Singapore, South Africa, and a host of other countries. We want Mexicans to come here and spend their money. Of course, we would do the same for Canadians. Let them pay taxes
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION We cant blame our immigrants for our governments stupidity. That is the same as
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blaming the baby because the diaper leaked. Others say they cost money and reduce government services for everyone. Maybe. If Mexicans are brought into the system, then they will be paying their fair share of taxes and their kids will grow up to be American workers and pay their taxes and continue to prop up our social security Ponzi scheme for another generation. Conclusion More to the point we should not punish others for our lack of creativity and vision. Would we confer citizen on these workers? Only if they met the rules required for obtaining citizenship. Will they bring change to our culture and society, We hope so? We managed to survive the wave of Germans, Chinese, Irish, Jews, and Eastern Europeans, we think we can survive a few million Mexicans. Full disclosure Mike Ballantine has a son in Madagascar that cannot come live in America because his mother cannot get a visa. We dont think separating a child from his or her mother is a very smart thing to do. As Americans we routinely overcome our differences. It is what makes us strong. Lets be intelligent about this and do the right thing. We believe that when one does the right thing no matter the personal cost, everybody eventually wins. Mike's son would not benefit from this program, this program is primarily for Mexicans and Canadians currently working in the US. Constitutional Convention One of the most distressing things for every American is the seeming inability of Congress to do what is in the best interest of the people. Our campaign believes the best way to do this is through a series of amendments to the constitution. Whereas some may think that this
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is dangerous because it opens up the constitution to many different changes, the Committee to Elect Mike Ballantine President 2012 knows that all Americans are patriots and together we will do the right thing. Here are a few amendments we support: a line-item veto of spending bills, term limits on Congress, public financing of elections, returning Senate elections back to state governments, defining a person (man or men) as an "organic Homo Sapiens of any gender," and a discussion on a balanced budget requirement. Specifically, our campaign seeks the following changes in the constitution: 1) Public financing of elections and the elimination of private money 2) A line-item veto on spending bills 3) Repeal of the 17th amendment to return the power to chose Senators to the states 4) Increase the number of Representatives to allow representation 250,000 people per 5) Define Homo Sapiens as people, not corporations or artificial constructs 6) Term Limits of 12 years for any member of Congress 7) Requiring Congress and their staff to be subject to the laws they create 8) Allow a plebiscite to overturn legislation 9) Eliminate the Electoral college and allow a recall vote within the first two years 10) Extend the following rights to all Americans a. Right to a basic education b. Define the word men to mean women and transgender people c. Right to affordable housing d. Right to work in an occupation suitable to skills and abilities e. Right to health care for all citizens f. Right to a pension sufficient to live on
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11) The requirement that the government submit a 5 year and 10 years business plan for the nation including anticipated investments and taxation 12) Define a natural born citizen as someone born in American territory to two citizen parents at the time of birth to eliminate any question about loyalty or affinity a. All aspirants for the office of President must provide certified copies of birth and parents birth prior to being accepted by the states for consideration b. Two citizen witnesses may be substituted where documents do not exist 13) Once elected to President, the President must sever all political party affiliations for the duration of their term of office 14) All states must treat all aspirants for Federal office equally and may not give priority to historical party affiliations 15) Federal elections will take place on two occasions, the first on a Sunday to choose the two most successful aspirants and the second two weeks later for the final contest. There are many other proposed changes to our constitution, these are only a few that this campaign favors and promotes. We do not support a balanced budget amendment because it would force cuts in programs without consideration for their impact on people. We favor instead a program requiring legislators to craft a rainy day fund for surplus revenues. Given the substantial debt that encumbers our nation, we propose that no permanent tax cuts can be approved until the debt is paid in full. We do support temporary tax cuts during economic downturns and would recommend legislation that allows for this occurrence. Occupy Assembly Here is a group of Patriots that want to initiate positive change to our nation. "OccupyAssembly.org will recreate the direct democracy and open debate of the Occupy Wall
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Street General Assembly for the Internet. Together the 99% will change the world! But first, we must unite. Help us create a space for facilitated discussion so we can make this a truly 21st century movement" Occupy Assembly.org The rules for establishing a constitutional convention are quite clear and the Occupy Assembly does not meet them. However, we consider their efforts to be a starting place for discussions between the disparate groups around the nation and welcome their ideas which would be presented to a formal convention as a starting place. Until America resolves the current problems in our constitution, our nation will continue to be gripped by anger and hatred on all sides of the issues. Rebuild America Movement We support Van Jones's efforts to rebuild America. We believe his contract's principles provide definition to our program policies. Support him and his team in their efforts to get the word out. Rebuild America Dream Here is what he has to say: " "America and the world owe a great debt to Occupy Wall Street for making the problem of economic inequality impossible to ignore. The tiny spark that began in Zuccotti Park just six weeks ago has triggered a major shift in the national dialogue on inequality, our economy and our democracy. Now it's time to begin a conversation about solutions -- solutions big enough to fit the scale of the problems that Occupy Wall Street has highlighted. Fortunately, the American Dream Movement spent this last summer taking on this very challenge. We are a vast, growing network
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of progressive organizations and individuals. We are fighting to renew the American Dream and return our country to the principle of liberty and justice, for ALL (not for some)." (Van Jones, 2011) The Rebuild America movement is another expression of the need for a constitutional convention and like the Occupy Assembly organization and Wolf-Pac, these movements are necessary to create an environment of dialogue and understanding. There are similar movements among Libertarians and Conservatives. Some people are concerned that a Constitutional Convention could destroy the Constitution and replace it with a government unacceptable to the people. That fear is nonsense because it takes a super majority to amend the constitution not a simple majority. Hence, whatever is approved is the will of the people. War on Drugs In the early 1970s, President Nixon declared a war on drugs much like the war on alcohol during Prohibition. The number of lives that have been destroyed in this war both here and abroad is uncountable. This war has led to vast corruption among law enforcement and the courts, a complete loss of control at our borders, and incarceration of a significant number of minorities in our prison systems. This incarceration has had a damaging effect on our society and resulted in higher divorce rates, greater poverty, lower performance in schools, a high cost to manage the prison system, and a near state of war on out borders. Without a demonstratable benefit to the government or society, this war has to end. Whereas, drug addiction is a social problem and can lead to negative outcomes, those mostly reflect on the individual. However, the problems created by the War on Drugs carries over to the society in general putting an unaffordable burden on society. Instead we propose offering an American variation of the Portugal program decriminalizing drugs and legalizing Marijuana consumption.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Decriminalizing Drugs
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One of the great travesties of the past 40 years is the war on drugs. This war has been an utter failure for our citizens and for those living in countries where drugs are produced. The committee to elect Mike Ballantine President 2012 supports the decriminalization of drugs and when elected, Mike Ballantine promises to work with Congress to develop alternative treatment regimens involving counseling and therapy. No American should go to prison for a crime he or she commits against him or herself. We do not support the indiscriminate sale of narcotics or dangerous substances, however we do support the right of each adult to make their own decisions. We support the right of adults to receive some drugs while under the care of a physician. This is an individual decision and the Federal Government has no right to limit an individual's liberties or their right to pursue happiness. Legalizing Marijuana We believe that classifying Marijuana as a drug to restrict its sale or consumption is unconstitutional. The government has yet to demonstrate the harm that would be caused by allowing individuals to consume Marijuana in the privacy of their own home. Marijuana should be reclassified similarly to tobacco and every adult American should have the right to grow and consume this plant as they see fit. During the first year of our term, we will submit to Congress a bill reclassifying Marijuana as a tobacco like substance allowing every adult American to grow Marijuana on their property and to consume it on their property without restriction or license. We recommend that the states introduce legislation governing the sale, transport, and trade of Marijuana. We will recommend that all imports of Marijuana have an import tax of 30% to support drug addiction programs. Pardoning all non-violent drug offenders
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION One of the greatest crimes against minorities has been the governments efforts to imprison them for minor drug offenses. America's prisons are full of people who have done
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nothing more than want to escape for a moment from the darkness of their lives. As President, once the Congress has reclassified drugs and decriminalized them, Mike Ballantine promises to pardon all non-violent drug offenders. Whereas, we recognize that some potentially dangerous criminals may be released, we feel that the majority of drug offenses are committed by ordinary people disillusioned with our society. These people need our compassion, our understanding, and our forgiveness. Keeping them in prison for having committed a crime that is no longer a crime would be a miscarriage of justice. Further, the nation will save 10s of billions in dollars. Private Prisons The private prison system has become a serious concern for all Americans. These prisons engage prisoners in labor activities that produce products at a fraction of the cost of competing products in the United States. This competition undercuts the nations efforts to create jobs. Prison labor should be paid at a sub-minimum wage determined by the state no less than 50% of the prevailing wage. Companies employing the workers should pay the difference between the minimum wage and the amount paid to the worker as compensation for the prisoners room and board expense as well as any outstanding fines. To do less would be no different than employing prisoners as slaves. Paying a token wage does not change the state of bondage that prison workers face. Whereas, we acknowledge that convicted criminals have lost some rights, that does not eliminate the need to respect their dignity. LGBT issues There are lots of discussions about what rights people should or should not have. The bottom line is that we all have the same rights and you cannot deny anyone a right because you
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do not like their social behavior, their thinking, their life-style choice, or their sexual preference. We are all adults and we need to accept people who are different. The campaign to elect Mike Ballantine President 2012, supports suspension of DOMA, its challenge in the Supreme Court and its repeal. Further, Mike Ballantine will work with Congress to pass a National Civil Union law that would be recognized by all 50 states providing equality in partnership throughout the nation. No one should ever feel discriminated against especially by the government and all Americans should be entitled to the same benefits, especially our military. Conservative Christians express dismay at the appearance of a society allowing rampant anti-social behavior which will pollute their childrens thinking. If ones religious values are truly enshrined in ones thinking and beliefs then deviant behavior as many term it should not have any influence on their children. People have been gay for a very long-time and there will be gay people long after all of us have passed on. This is not a problem that can be solved through counseling or walling oneself off from humanity. It is reality that everyone must accept, learn to live with, and move on to the many other problems that dominate the landscape. For too long, social control based on religious dogma has caused untold pain and suffering among our brothers and sisters and the nation must recognize the secular nature of its governance. Each American is entitled to his or her own religious beliefs but no American can impose those beliefs or practices on another without violating the Bill of Rights. Religion versus Secularism With the Republican candidates campaigns' emphasis on religious values and returning religious values back to American society, the Committee to elect Mike Ballantine President 2012 believes that religion has no place in American government. America was founded as a secular nation by men who strongly believed in freedom of religion regardless of whether one is
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION a Christian, Jew, or Muslim. Since then, the people of America have welcomed 100s of other religious traditions. When one religious group seeks to impose its views on other religious
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groups or non-religious people, it violates the spirit of our founding fathers ideals. Like many of our founding fathers such as George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Thomas Paine and Benjamin Franklin, Mike Ballantine is a Deist believing in God but not his/her influence on mankind. Under a Ballantine administration no attempt will be made to engage in any legislation that promotes religious issues or takes away from them. Religion should not really be a part of the nations political discussion. A person's faith and belief is a private matter for the individual and should not be subjected to the whims of the paparazzi or pundits. During this campaign, the nation has seen strong references by some candidates who insist on wearing their religion on their sleeves as a litmus test or proof of their rightness for leadership. If that were the case, we would only elect ministers, rabbis, imams, or priests. Our founding fathers were largely Deists believing not in a specific religion but in a creator uninvolved in the day-to-day lives of each of us. For some, that is not very comforting but once you get past the dependence on a Sunday morning televangelist to tell you have to live your life and decide to just do the right thing, it is liberating. This liberation is what propelled men like Thomas Paine, Henry Thoreau, Teddy Roosevelt, Mahatma Ghandi, and Martin Luther King. When one knows instinctively what is right or wrong, one does not need the threat of hell and damnation to do the right thing. Recently, a brave American fighting in some forgotten corner of the world posted his ideas on Deism. Having stared at the veil that surrounds life and death on more than one occasion, like him, I put my trust in beliefs earned rather than learned. I include his statement
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION and ask that you read it and take it to heart: Staff Sergeant Brian Jamison
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We must not forget who and what we are. All of us are Americans and that must come first. If we let religion divide us then Americans are no better than the crusaders who fought Muslims or the Inquisition that brutally murdered the native Americans. What is in ones heart is what matters and if that heart is filled with hate over something so simple as the name of ones God, what does that say about America as a society. Do people really deserve the blessings of a God or his vengeful wrath? When Americans hear noises about Gov Romney not being a Christian, or the right kind of Christian, what does that say about ones Christianity? If a man believes in Jesus, then naturally he must be a Christian but it becomes irrelevant because he is an American first and foremost. There is no constitutional religious qualification in America and there never has been. If Gov Romney has the best plan to return our nation to prosperity then people should vote for him. If Congressman Paul has the best plan, then vote for him. If President Obama has the best plan, then vote for him. And, if like us you believe our campaign has the best plan, then support our campaign. If religion becomes the litmus test for a secular nation, how long will it be until we devolve into a theocracy much like Iran or Saudi Arabia. Our nation faces many challenges economically, socially, and spiritually. If the nation acts like unruly children, then the people should not be surprised when the world grows impatient with America and treats Americans like children. Join with our campaign and let us heal our nation together. First we fix our economy, create jobs, put food back on the table. After that, we fix our schools and restore a social balance of equality in our nation, and finally when we do not have the distractions of life beating down upon us every day, we sit down and talk about the hard issues that divide us, and how as a nation
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we can find common ground. Every problem has a solution, we just have not found everyone of them yet. Teen Pregnancy and Abortion The United States has one of the highest teen pregnancy rates of most modern nations. In order to reduce these numbers, we are promoting a program to provide effective birth control to teenagers (parental consent where required). The plan involves providing an implant that goes into the arm and can last from three to five years. The non-surgical procedure takes only a few minutes and is considered one of the most effective forms of birth control available. Our program will also offer a cash incentive of $50 to every teenager who receives the implant during the first year of the program. We believe that this can help reduce the number of teen pregnancies and the number of abortions in the U.S. Our goal is not to promote promiscuous behavior but to reduce the need for young women to ever have an abortion in the first place. A pregnancy avoided is an abortion avoided. We believe this is the best way to manage our current difficulties. The cost of this program is estimated at $200 million, but much of the cost will be offset by a decrease in healthcare costs and other assistance programs. Cost avoided is cost saved. It is hypocrisy to demand that women choose between the life of a child and their future if the society is not willing to provide adequate support for that child. Too often, religious conservatives lecture about the need to end abortion and then turn around and lecture about the need not to provide funds to support single mothers. They go on about a loss of morality while locking up the fathers in prison for minor drug offenses. Further, once a child is born, the right concludes they no longer have responsibility for that childs development or support. The right only cares for the unborn child not the living one and this is a social tragedy. Without adequate support for newborns and their mothers it is unconscionable for the right to demand a cessation
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION of abortions. Very few women see abortion as the right thing to do and blaming them for the failure of society to provide adequate safety nets will not solve this problem. It is hoped that
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through discussion, a solution to meet the needs of the Christian right and young mothers can be found. Abortion Roe vs Wade is the law of the land and this administration will support a woman's right to choose. This is an issue that is best decided by women and as a male, Mike Ballantine does not think he is ultimately qualified to make it. Supreme Court Justices Currently there is a slight Liberal bias on the court. To avoid social dislocation, the Committee to elect Mike Ballantine President 2012 supports the idea of maintaining the balance that currently exists. If a conservative jurist chooses to retire, Mike Ballantine will give preference to a jurist of similar persuasion. However, this committee believes that preference should be given to women and minority candidates to better reflect the demographics of our society. The Patriot Act This committee considers the Patriot Act to be a miscarriage of justice and as President, Mike Ballantine will instruct the DOJ to challenge it in the courts to insure that it never rears its ugly head again. As President, Mike Ballantine will suspend its enforcement on his first day in office. In addition within 90 days, where possible the TSA will be disbanded and replaced with private security firms at every major airport. The use of full-body scanners will be limited to cases where actual criminal action is believed to have occurred and there is sufficient probable cause. The process of doing pat-downs will be considered a violation of privacy and limited
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much like the body scans. No person should ever have to endure the gross violation of privacy that the TSA commits against honest Americans on a daily basis. All American citizens will be removed from the no-fly list. To put someone on the no-fly list, the government must have a proper hearing before a judge and probable cause must exist. This placement must be reviewed within 90 days and if there is no evidence of bad intent, that person will be dropped from the list. Indefinite Detention This particular act proposed by President Obama and passed by the House on the 200th anniversary of the Bill of Rights violates everything the American nation stands for. Through this act, the President can order indefinite detention for any American by the military. Supposedly enacted to fight terrorism, this act is rife for abuse, and represents the end of habeua corpus in America. This act must be resisted at all costs and a new administration elected to replace the current one to repeal this act with all possible speed. Not only will this act stifle the voices of dissent, it could very well lead to permanent detention without trial for political opponents. There can never be a reason for any American to be placed in prison without trial indefinitely. The constitution strictly prohibits this and no act of Congress nor the President supersedes the Constitution, ever. Occupy Wall Street This campaign gives its 100% backing to all the Occupy movements around the nation. We believe that protests are a necessary part of today's political climate to return accountability to Washington. For the past three years, Americans have been in shock from President Obama's seeming turn to the right and abandonment of those values Americans hold dear. If Washington is not going to respond to the many problems plaguing this nation, then they should not be surprised when people take to the street. We support a boycott of all large banks and request that
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION people move their money and credit cards to local small town banks. By moving your money
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you will help local banks support small business instead of Wall St speculators at the big banks. Wolf-Pac Cenk Uyger and www.theyoungturks.com are calling on all members of the TYT Army to ban together and support the Occupy Wall St movement with money and time by forming the WolfPac. We support Cenk's efforts to rally the people and fight corporate control in Washington. We hope that you will go assist them as they prepare for a constitutional convention in Philadelphia on July 4th, 2012. At this convention, 870 delegates, a man and woman from each congressional district will meet to decide which amendments to put in the new "Bill of People's Rights." Occupy Assembly Here is a group of Patriots that want to initiate positive change to our nation. "OccupyAssembly.org will recreate the direct democracy and open debate of the Occupy Wall Street General Assembly for the Internet. Together the 99% will change the world! But first, we must unite. Help us create a space for facilitated discussion so we can make this a truly 21st century movement" Occupy Assembly.org Wisconsin Protests Earlier this spring, ordinary teachers and other government workers were forced to protest to protect their pensions and right to organize. The right to organize a union was won more than 60 years ago. Despite this, Gov Scott Walker took advantage of difficult economic circumstances to attack teachers' unions. Jon Stewart on The Daily Show put things into perspective when he accused teachers of making too much money, like $45,000 a year is too much money. I agree with Jon, teachers are not the problem, government give-aways to the top 1% are. It is a tragedy
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that politics has stooped slow low that rights earned by our grandfathers can so casually be taken away. Let that be a lesson and support our campaign's call for a constitutional convention to put people back into the constitution.
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ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Appendix I Job Creation List
Project Five cities - construction Transport systems/Hispeed Rail Service/support of construction Small Business Textile Factories Software and IT Restaurant and Food Service Electronics Factories New Nuclear Reactors Hospital and Health Care New Schools construction New Teachers DC Powerlines construction Moon Space Program Architectural and planning Electric Car Factory Solar Mirror Farms Renewables Pipeline construction Hydroponics Farms Community Police 2 - oil refineries - Detroit 2 - Steel Mills Mars Space Program Plastics and Petrochemicals Tree Planting Rare Earth Minerals Mines 1 - coal gasification Midwest 1 - coal gasification Kentucky 1 - Electric battery plant 1 - shale oil processing mine Totals Number of workers 4,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,115,000 800,000 750,000 600,000 600,000 500,000 500,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 250,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 125,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 35,000 20,000,000 Project Life 10 years 10 years 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 years years years years years years years years Permanent Workers 1,000,000 500,000 3,000,000 1,800,000 1,200,000 1,115,000 800,000 350,000 200,000 600,000 50,000 500,000 75,000 200,000 150,000 120,000 120,000 225,000 50,000 200,000 250,000 75,000 75,000 150,000 50,000 100,000 125,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 13,220,000
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3 years 10 years 5 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 8 years years years years years years years years years years years years
3 years 10 years 10 years 3 years 3 years 3 years 10 years
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Appendix II Liquidity Trap Keynes 2.0 Unless one has been sleeping these past three years, it is blindingly obvious that the American economy is very troubled. Further, it appears that the so-called experts lack the means to change or repair the damage. Despite multiple efforts to stimulate the economy and provide quantitative easing (QE), the economy continues to stumble along much like a drunken sailor. Government officials announce that everyone must be satisfied with a jobless recovery and that jobs formerly held a bare three years past would not be coming back. That is the state of affairs that one finds oneself in and one must ask the question, why? The most common refrain heard among the pundits and candidates in the Presidential primary campaigns is that we must accept cuts to entitlements and elimination of regulations. Only by gutting our programs for the poor and the elderly will the nation begin its long recovery. Further, the draconian regulations imposed recklessly upon business over the past thirty years are responsible for the nations difficulties. There is no mention of the cost and burden of fighting multiple wars in multiple theaters without having allocated funds sufficient to cover those costs. Nor, is there mention of the many tax cuts provided to the wealthy at the expense of the poor. The tragic result of the current proposed cuts will be to cut benefits for the poor so the rich can receive tax cuts. That seems suspiciously like class warfare but it depends on a point of view.
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One of the key characteristics of this crisis is its similarity to the one faced by Japan over the past 20 years. Then as now, Japans real estate market crashed initiating a 20-year period when economic activity barely changed despite massive infrastructure spending and ample monetary easing. In 1998, Paul Krugman described the Japanese malaise as a liquidity trap. He posited that no matter how much spending Japan initiated, Japans economy could not escape its monetary trap. Another decade has passed and Japan continues to suffer the consequences of its failure to find a relevant solution. America faces the same malaise today. One could do a lot of graphs and render some interesting tables but for the sake of arguing, this analysis assumes a liquidity trap exists and proposes some novel solutions to repair the damage. This analysis includes a review of the current policies, their economic theoretical underpinnings, and the negative impact of their initiation. Further, a presentation of out of the box recommended solutions provides strong proposals to overcome the cancer that is spreading through our economy. Defining a Liquidity Trap In his paper from 1998 titled Japans Trap, Paul Krugman describes a liquidity trap as a situation when monetary policy becomes ineffective because you cant push interest rates below zero (p. 1). Essentially, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) once it had set interest rates near zero was unable to stimulate the economy because real interest rates were below zero. To get nominal interest rates below zero, banks must pay borrowers for borrowing money or the government must offer a subsidy to borrowers. This type of action is unprecedented and violates the common sense clause of most conservative people. Without any political support for a borrower subsidy program, the BOJ remains helpless to effect any change in the economy.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION The Japanese government in keeping with Keynesian thinking began fiscal stimulus programs building roads, bridges, rail transport, airports, and other infrastructure projects to provide support for the economy. Despite this unprecedented stimulus over the past 20 years,
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Japans economy continues to move sideways. There are many valid criticisms of the Japanese policies and each will be reviewed in turn. The primary question is whether Americas current problems mirror the Japanese ones, and are there lessons to be learned? Over the past three years, the Federal Reserve (FED) under Ben Bernanke provided three QE packages as well as promoting a stimulus package and bank recapitalization programs (TARP). Despite these efforts, investors piled up dollars at a record pace with nearly $7 trillion deposited in commercial banks as of November 2011. The end result of any QE program is to keep nominal interest rates at zero. According to a paper co-authored by Ben Bernanke and Alan Blinder in 1988, they proposed the idea that by purchasing deposits from commercial banks, the FED could issue unlimited funds to maintain interest rates near zero. Acting on his original theories, Bernanke implemented policies at the FED to achieve zero interest rate stability and dramatically expand bank deposits held at the FED. Bernankes public pronouncements are that the zero-rate interest policy will continue for at least two years to support a nascent recovering economy. In effect, Bernanke is copying the BOJs policies. Crazy Banker Theory To escape a liquidity trap, Krugman proposes that a central bank adopt a policy of craziness. Essentially, the central banker must create the belief in the market that it will not control inflation (Krugman, 1998). The objective of the crazy banker theory is to create expectations of inflation and drive investors to convert cash into investments in a rush to minimize the potential that inflation will eat away at the value of cash (Krugman, 1998).
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Bernankes paper suggests that at zero percent, investors treat cash and bonds indifferently. This makes sense because at zero, rates can only go up so investing in long-term bonds unless held to maturity will result in a loss. The obvious problem with the crazy central banker theory is getting people to believe it. First, the FED has been purchasing US Treasuries, mortgage securities and municipal bonds with quantitative easing efforts. These assets are held by the FED and presumably will be sold eventually once inflation reasserts itself in the economy. As long as these assets remain on the books, the FED can intervene at any time to combat inflation limiting the crazy banker theorys utility. A second area of concern is the political classs response to crazy banking. Should Bernanke go off the wagon and start acting out of character, the political class would intervene and reverse his actions. Finally, while many may differ with Bernankes solutions for the crisis, no one opines that he is flamboyant or crazy, instead he is rather dull and boring. The Chairman of the FED has some flexibility but most of the decisions are made in concert with the 12 member banks of the FED and its governing board. Congress scrutinizes every decision made by the FED Chairman and would immediately attack any movement that would jeopardize their political careers. The 2012 campaigning is well underway and the economy is the number one concern of most people. During this time, the FED has often provided monetary easing to avoid a recession in the middle of a campaign. This imparts a mild competitive advantage to the incumbent. However, with incipient inflation beginning to take hold, Bernanke has to navigate a policy of easing while simultaneously appearing to combat inflation to avoid the problem faced by Volker in the 70s, stagflation. If stagflation were to take hold, then the efforts to maintain a zero% interest rate policy would collapse dramatically expanding the budget deficit.
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION Austerity as Public Policy
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The combined wisdom of politicians and many economic sages is that America has lived beyond its means and must pull back and regroup as a smaller more efficient government. This largely comes from the same party that brought us Vice-President Cheneys famous adage, Deficits dont matter. Further, profligate war spending and unwise tax cuts precipitated this problem to begin with. If there are any spending cuts to be made in the name of austerity, they should be made in the defense department which has doubled in size in 10 years. Further, there is strong justification to raise income tax levels to previous levels to increase revenue. Republican rhetoric that President Obama ineffectually combats in his speeches puts the blame squarely on entitlements for our budget problems referring to them as expensive handouts. In every proposal, the Republicans hope to cut 35% from Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid programs without considering the cost born by recipients. They treat entitlements as a thing without regard for the people side of the equation. Not only is this bad public policy, it is bad economic policy as well. In the basic macroeconomic equation, Income is equal to consumption plus investment plus taxes. When the government borrows to finance its deficit, it takes money from the investment side reducing investments and uses it to increase consumption. Consumption is generally measured as GDP. If the Republicans succeed in cutting entitlements to reduce the deficit, they will increase funds available for investment and directly reduce consumption, $1 for $1. If every $100,000 of government spending represents one job as Krugman maintains (n.d.), then reducing the deficit by $1 trillion will result in the loss of 10 million government jobs plus the loss of secondary and tertiary employment. Cutting entitlements will make the unemployment situation worse and impose a hidden tax on the poor and the elderly. The one
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION certainty is that the poor and elderly will have to adjust their spending to replace the loss in benefits.
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This policy might make sense in a market starved for funds needed for investment but in a market with dollars piling up in the banks, it will only pile them higher. The knock-on effect is that government entitlement spending will increase to support the newly unemployed exacerbating the situation requiring more austerity (Stiglitz, 2011). The increase in costs for the poor translates to higher inflation. Unless costs go down, workers will see increased costs as a potential threat and demand higher wages, setting in place the potential for stagflation to take hold. The final criticism of this policy is that it does not address the currently unemployed workers looking for work, only the fiscal side of the equation. To reduce the deficit, the easiest way is to collect tax revenues from newly employed workers and reduce benefits paid to them while unemployed. With the trust deficit between the voters and the Congress very high, the voters believe it is important to cut governments influence on the economy. There is some merit to this argument. However, Congress offers to cut spending for the poor but not cut spending for the corporate welfare recipients, defense contractors. The threat of Muslim extremism is maintained to deflect any demands for cuts in defense spending. Whereas, cuts in defense would result in job losses, they would not be as great as in other areas of the budget or the economy $1 for $1. A second area of concern is the growth of government spending and its associated debt. People are frightened and it is always easier to say cut than it is to say invest which is what they do in their personal lives. To further complicate the process, a variety of economists provide mixed solutions that cater to the political flavor of the month.
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Neo-classical economists believe that unemployment results from an inability of the labor market to adjust to changing circumstances either caused by regulation, union influences, or structural employment issues (Hoover, 2008). They believe that if one removes these issues or mitigate them, that full employment can be achieved, hence the big push to deregulate. What they do not address is the pain that unemployment will cause the workers. Whereas, one might be able to tighten ones belt for a short-time, most household expenses are fixed and the savings rate has been below 10% for the better part of 30 years (Guidolin & La Jeunesse, 2007). Workers are unable to adjust significantly without dramatically reducing aggregate demand and returning the economy to recession. Workers would need to sell houses, file bankruptcy, or change lifestyles more often than is comfortable creating a significant drag on economic activity. Austrians take a different tack and suggest that people make decisions as individuals (Boettke, 2008). Americans are individualists but demand group conformity (Stewart & Bennett, 1991). Every American declares the right to make individual decisions but then joins a halfdozen groups that promote ideas or activities that they enjoy adopting that groups thinking and culture. Americans are very fluid in their friendships and groups but they still follow one another in herds (Stewart & Bennett, 1991). This herd instinct counters the individualness preventing Austrian economics from accurately predicting behavior in the short and medium terms. Austrian solutions invariably rely on free-markets and the elimination of regulations much like neo-classicists but the reality is that there are no free-markets (Stiglitz, 2011). A solution predicated upon something that no longer or never existed is doomed to failure. Another difference between neo-classicists and Keynesian economists is their preference for small changes in policy that focus on tweaking or nudging markets in the direction they want to go (Hoover, 2008). When President Obama first responded to the crisis, knowing the
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION seriousness of it, his advisers recommended a stimulus package of $780 billion of which only $80 billion was actual stimulus (Economist, 2010). Even now, they are recommending a
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stimulus package of $60 billion. In an economy with a GDP of $15 trillion, this is the financial equivalent of a rounding error. Currently, there are 14 million unemployed and another 6 million working in part-time positions looking for full-time (BLS, 2011). A further 4 million workers have left the system entirely. A stimulus package may create upwards of 600,000 jobs if one uses Krugmans metric, a welcome effort but too little, too late. The bulk of the stimulus funds from 2009 were used to protect government employees from layoffs and to continue government services. That is not stimulus, that is maintenance. TARP Early in the crisis, then Secretary Paulson negotiated funds to support a number of activities but chose to use these funds almost entirely to provide capital for banks (CNBC, 2008). As part of this program, the treasury bought up loans potentially in default at 100% value to inculcate banks from damage. This allowed banks to remain open and avoided any more unhappy events like Bears, Sterns or Lehman Brothers closures (CNBC, 2008) but it did nothing to solve the underlying problem. Instead of giving those funds to the banks directly, they should have been used to pay down delinquent or troubled loans allowing borrowers to remain in their homes (Merle & ElBoghdady, 2010), avoid mass foreclosures, and prop up home prices. Instead we have all the problems and the losses were transferred to the taxpayers. Some claim malfeasance on the part of Hank Paulson, one might instead interpret his actions as driven by fear of the unknown. The TARP program worked initially to stabilize banks but as the years have gone by, more and more homeowners fallen behind in their payments, housing prices are down 32%
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across the board with some regions experiencing 70% losses. In 2006, there was an estimated value of $22 trillion in housing stock, that number today is closer to $15 trillion. Further, mortgage debt is somewhere between $11.5 and 12.5 trillion depending on how one calculates the value of sub-prime mortgages currently facing 45% default rates. This situation is unsustainable. If housing prices continue to fall further, eventually average equity will approach zero. At that point the economy will face the prospect of 10s of millions of additional homeowners walking away from their homes extending the crisis indefinitely. To attempt to re-inflate the housing market and avoid Armageddon, Bernanke instituted several quantitative easing (QE) programs. It was hoped that monetary policy would reignite inflationary expectations avoiding the worst aspects of asset deflation currently taking place. This policy caused worldwide inflation raising food prices and oil prices globally. Developing countries often peg the value of their currency to the dollar forcing them to print money to avoid losing export markets to a weaker dollar. This beggar thy neighbor approach to currency management has put the largest burden of QE policies on the poorest people making life intolerable in many parts of the globe. Since the government does not include energy and food prices in its inflation calculations, the FED maintains the fiction that inflation is nearly nonexistent when it is closer to 11%. Reserve Currency For most countries, the dollar is a reserve currency. This means that international transactions are settled in dollars as opposed to dinars or francs. Countries desirous of importing steel or other commodities necessary to build infrastructure, housing, or factories must sell goods overseas to pay for the imports. If a country is facing an import bill over multiple years to support development projects, it does not have the luxury to quickly adjust policies to reduce
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these imports or accelerate exports. When the value of the dollar changes, a developing country must adjust its monetary policy to reflect the new dollar environment either by raising or lowering its interest rates. The US has the luxury of high dollar demand allowing it to finance its dollar deficits with excess dollars worldwide. This has put the burden of the US deficit on developing countries slowing down their own investment programs. Eventually, it must selfcorrect and those dollars will flow back to the developing world causing the US economy to plummet. The current expectation is that the US will repay those debts with cheaper dollars. Despite this, the world remains hungry for the dollar. The economic crisis is not limited to the US. The Eurozone is suffering through a crisis of confidence caused by high deficits in smaller European countries and currency speculation. One of the weaknesses of the currency union is the inability of individual countries to adjust monetary policy during times of crisis. Instead, Germany is getting a labor subsidy and Greece is forced to compete at German wage rates. Were Greece free to devalue its currency, it could quickly return to economic stability and the crisis would have been averted. At present it appears that a number of Eurozone countries will default creating a cascade failure throughout the zone bringing down good countries with the bad ones. This fear of a cascade failure has made the dollar a temporary safe-haven. Demands for a global currency would only magnify this problem and export it worldwide as developing countries fail to adjust to the new cost regimes. One of the principle complaints is Chinas failure to allow its currency to float freely. This is one reason firms chose to move to China because they knew that with currency stability, they could plan cost structures for the future. The other primary reasons firms moved to China are access to bigger markets, reducing costs of production by paying workers less, a loose
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regulatory environment, few regulations regarding pollution or worker safety, and requirements by Chinese officials to make partnerships in China to achieve market penetration. When politicians claim regulations are the reason why firms have moved to China, they are oversimplifying a complex issue. Simply lowering wages and removing regulations will have little or no impact on many of these firms. Those jobs are gone for good. Suggestions to counteract Chinas policy by imposing tariffs have merit if one intends to build factories to compete with the Chinese. If it is simply a punitive exercise, then it will raise costs for Americans, impose a one-time increase of 4% inflation, and reduce the budget deficit by about $105 billion. However, the current relationship needs to change, including how currency values are managed by the US and China. It may require pegging of currencies to a valuation of a basket of commodities or some other similar vehicle to end the currency wars currently taking place globally. As long as nations can lower their currency with impunity, America cannot escape its liquidity trap by increasing exports. The more QE that takes place, the lower the currencies will get in other countries, exacerbating their inflation and reimporting the inflation in food and energy prices supporting stagflation in the US without changing the behavior of investors. Fear is a Disincentive to Invest The primary fear overshadowing the market is the anticipated collapse of the Eurozone. With the sovereign debt market imploding, interest rates are rising in individual countries forcing massive cuts in government spending at the same time the economies are collapsing. These austerity measures magnify the impact of economic collapse creating waves of cuts to meet the continual reductions in tax receipts. Its as if an economic vortex is sucking the life out of the Eurozone economies specifically the PIGS, Portugal, Ireland/Italy, Greece and Spain. However,
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there are no safe harbors from this economic catastrophe as French and German banks are caught up in the mounting loan losses through their sovereign debt investments. Without immediate intervention, this crisis will spread worldwide deepening the recession in the US and finally pushing China into recession.
References Bernanke, B. S. & Blinder, A. S. (1988, May). Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand. Retrieved from: http://paper.blog.bbiq.jp/Bernanke_and_Blinder_1988.pdf BLS. (2011, November). Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Retrieved from: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Boettke, P. J. (2008). Austrian School of Economics. Retrieved from: http://www.econlib.org/ library/Enc/AustrianSchoolofEconomics.html CNBC. (2008, November). Paulson: Worsening Crisis Forced Change in Strategy. Retrieved from: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27721218/Paulson_Worsening_Crisis_Forced_ Change_in_Strategy Economist. (2010, October). False Expectations: The historic infrastructure investment that wasnt. Retrieved from: http://www.economist.com/node/17311851 Guidolin M. & La Jeunesse, E. A. (2007). The Decline in the U.S. Personal Savings Rate: Is it Real and Is it a Puzzle? Retrieved from: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review /07/11/Guidolin.pdf Hoover, K. D. (2008). New Classical Macroeconomics. Retrieved from: http://www.econlib.org /library/Enc/NewClassicalMacroeconomics.html Krugman, P. (1998, May). Japans Trap. Retrieved from: http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION /japans_trap.pdf Krugman, P. (n.d.). Job Creation. Retrieved from: http://www.wanderings.net/notebook/ Main/BadFaithEconomicsPaulKrugman Merle, R. & ElBoghdady, D. (2010, March). Obama readies steps to fight foreclosures, particularly for unemployed. Retrieved from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/03/25/AR2010032502426.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR Stewart, E. C, & Bennett, M. J. (1991). American Cultural Patterns: A Cross-Cultural Perspective. Nicholas Brealey Publishing Co. Boston. ISBN-13: 978-1-877864-01-8 Stiglitz, J. (2011, July). The Ideological Crisis of Western Capitalism. Retrieved from: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz140/English
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Appendix III Budget Issues (Old Budget from September 2011 Needs revision to December 2011 adjustments)
In Billions Budget Outlays Mandated Programs Social Security Medicare Medicaid TARP Other Mandatory Programs Subtotal Net Interest Discretionary Programs Security/Defense Non-security Interest Subsidy for Jobs Bank Education NASA Renewables (Batteries, Trees) Subtotal Total Outlays Receipts/Revenues National Sales Tax (15%) Individual Income Taxes - New jobs - Millionaire Tax - Reverse Bush Tax Cut Obama's Budget 2012 762 504 274 10 532 2082 340 America Inc. Budget 2012 762 2200 0 10 532 3504 660
850 490 0 0 0 1340 3762
300 440 125 100 100 75 1140 5304
1271
1700 1200 52 100 225

Corporate Income Taxes Social Security Payroll Taxes Medicare Payroll Taxes Unemployment Insurance Other retirement - Financial Transaction tax Excise taxes - Tariffs (China, Oil Imports) Estate and gift taxes Customs Duties Federal Reserve Earnings Other earnings Subtotal Deficit/Surplus 333 720 208 66 9 83 21 33 67 18 2829 933 535 820 0 66 9 150 89 236 21 33 50 18 5304 0
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Appendix IV Discussion about High-Density Ultra-Modern Urban Centers Climate Change Many pundits will claim that if we all work together, we can stop the deleterious effects of climate change. The presumption is that man is completely responsible for the cause of climate change and that man by changing his behavior can reverse its effects. This analysis takes the middle position and states that man is partly responsible and that natural solar cycles combined with axial shifts are also responsible. That creates a rather sizable problem that Americans as a nation must manage. Through coordinated global action, America may be able to slow down the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere. In fact, with concerted action, globally it is possible to halt the accumulation and even begin to reverse it with sufficient advancement in carbon atmospheric extraction technology. However, that assumes that during a global economic slow-down countries look beyond their parochial interests and sacrifice growth for the benefit of all mankind. It is possible but are people willing to bet the ranch on it? Hence, to build for the future, this analysis proposes the construction of five new ultra-modern urban centers on poor quality land currently not offering any productive benefit to America. These cities will hold upwards of 25 million people each. In the past, cities were constructed along major waterways to take advantage of cheap transport. Further, these cities served as transportation hubs for trading and commerce. With the construction of HSR, and the ability to provide DC power anywhere in the continental US at low
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION costs, a city is no longer tied to a traditional waterway construction. Instead, a city could be constructed in areas formerly exploited for coal such as West Virginia or Kentucky, North Dakota, Wyoming, Nevada, and Tennessee. These areas have low populations and would
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benefit from the demands that a large population center would bring them. Further, constructing these cities along the routes of the two east-west HSR corridors improves the utilization of these transport networks. The continental American population is currently 300 million people. This number is expected to grow to 400 million over the next 40 years. Either America can expand its existing cities along the coasts, continue to pave over valuable farmland in its suburbs or concentrate the growth in these five-urban centers. As sea-levels rise over the next 100 years, coastal areas will begin to disappear reducing total farmland and forcing current urban centers to concentrate more people in a smaller footprint. If people simply move to suburbs in-land, it will result in a dramatic reduction of arable land in the nation. This could result in food shortages and higher prices at the same time consumers are put under financial stress from loss of lands and homes. It is unlikely insurance companies are going to cover the loss of land and homes to rising sea levels brought on by climate change. America can approach this from the laissez-faire attitude of many people and say that the market will some how organize the nation into a proper response. Some could even argue that climate change may suddenly reverse itself, defy science and sea levels will fall. However, what is certain is that the nations population will go up and the nation will need housing for another 100 million people. Do Americans really want to pave over the nation and create one giant suburb stretching from New York to the Rockies? Some of the best farmland in the world is right here in the United States and Americans cover it with useless grass that they cut, mulch,
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and barbecue upon. It does not feed livestock or produce anything. Every American is entitled to their 1/3rd acre of freedom and their indigenous right to pollute the environment with lawn mowers, barbecues, and pool parties. As a nation, can America afford to give another 100 million Americans the same opportunities or should it begin to start real urban planning, provide incentives for people to move to these centers, and prepare for the potential impact of rising seas? If rising seas were the only consideration then it would be foolish to make a plan to redistribute the population of the United States. As it stands there is no specific deadline and what is most important is beginning a trend. Over the past decade, China has constructed 10 new urban centers in preparation for income growth. Whereas, one may not always find Chinese ideas appropriate, this one is a pretty good idea. America needs to build the roads, power plants, water treatment facilities, and the communications systems to support these new cities. That is the investment the government will make in these cities. The non-governmental buildings for housing, offices, and factories would be built with private funding. The budget for each city is $100 billion over five years. That is more than enough to create world-class transit systems, education facilities, and sports stadiums along with all the infrastructure needed by a highdensity modern city. Developers would be expected to invest another $200 billion in each city to create factories, apartment buildings, hospitals, museums, and shopping centers. As each city grows to 20 million people, the property value of each metropolitan area will reach roughly $3 trillion. The construction of these five cities will add at least $10 trillion to GDP over the next ten years. The economic activity in each city will double or triple those numbers. America can fuel a sustained recovery by building its way out of recession. Instead of focusing on short-term measures to battle the nations way out of the current economic crisis, a
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION sustained construction plan provides employment, room for growth for children and future
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immigrants without sacrificing the American way of life or valuable cropland. This is not about picking winners or losers but choosing the way America wants to organize the nation for the future. With 10 million construction workers and 1 million veterans looking for work, the timing is fortuitous to begin migrating society from a suburban wasteful consumer driven one to a highly efficient ultra-modern urban lifestyle designed around energy and resource efficiency. How to Organize a City for Efficiency There are a number of high-density cities that America can model. Singapore stands out as a model because as an island it has unique problems that a city in the desert or one in the mountains might face. It has to manage its water and food resources carefully recycling and supporting efforts to improve transportation. When building a high-density city, the streets and thoroughfares have to be laid out precisely with an underground transport network connecting all the main distribution points. A second criteria for these cities is that the factories and working spaces will be underground along with shopping and entertainment centers. The above ground area is reserved for housing, schools, hospitals, parks, and hydroponics gardens. Heat generated by commercial activities is collected and reused to heat residences during the winter. Sunlight is piped into office complexes to provide supplemental lighting. A third criteria for these cities is that they employ emissions free transport. This provides a ready market for automobile manufacturers to create electric or hydrogen fueled vehicles. Instead of worrying about managing a variety of fueling systems, car owners will be required to have emission free vehicles reducing air and noise pollution. With well-planned public transport, most residents can avoid owning a car reducing the cost of living within the city. A final criteria for these new urban
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centers is the elimination of all fire-arms within the city, including police. All firearms will need to be stored at designated storage facilities for safe-keeping on the outskirts of the city. Financing the Purchase of Residences Singapore has developed a model for financing apartments for its citizens. It follows many of the FHA principles. Each resident is allowed to buy an apartment based on their income levels and family size through a government sponsored lender. Payments are based on the income of the borrower and amortized over 20 years and fixed as a percentage of income. The government uses the payments of all the participants to average the total revenue providing subsidies when necessary as incomes fluctuate. This type of lending promotes home ownership and creates a steady demand for residences that reduce potential market imbalances that lead to booms and busts. Construction is determined by expected demand instead of rising prices reducing the potential for losses or sudden drops in the market. This allows construction to occur in an orderly manner rather than getting in front of infrastructure requirements like most cities. The island environment forces better planning and space utilization than American urban planners are accustomed to following. When planning a city for 25 million, managing every square foot becomes important to keep the city from developing sprawl. Utilities Electric for these cities will come largely from the planned desert solar-mirror farms for daylight requirements and nuclear power for nighttime needs. Proper resource planning suggests that 200 to 250 terrawatts should come from nuclear and another 500 to 600 terrawatts from solar desert-farms. This will ensure that there are no carbon emissions associated with these cities from power generation and that each city has two sources of power in the event of grid
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dislocation. Eventually, the nuclear power reactors will be converted from uranium to thorium designs reducing the amount of radioactive waste produced. Water will need to be piped from distant reservoirs and presents the greatest challenge and highest initial cost to construct the cities. A large pipeline will need to be constructed to supply water fresh water from the Great Lakes or other resources to supplement local water sources. To conserve water, all wastewater must be treated and returned to industrial use before being processed for release into the environment. Strict pollution controls including household detergents and chemicals must be maintained to manage the quality of the water. Singapore has developed highly efficient filtration systems to clean and purify toilet water for industrial use. Applying these same systems will significantly reduce the need for fresh water. Employing hydroponics systems to grow food throughout the city also reduces the need for irrigation water used in farming to provide fresh vegetables and fruits. This raises the cost to live there but each city can operate as its own independent economic unit limiting the need to compete with external suppliers. Placing a carbon tax on transport would make local producers more competitive. Each home, office, and public place will be connected to a high-speed internet service equivalent to a T-1 line. This connection provided by the city will allow every citizen to access the Internet and a plethora of programs for free. Individuals desirous of premium services can contract with local providers offering bundled channels and programs. All mail and correspondence will be delivered online to a household terminal eliminating the need for a postal service. These terminals will act as video communication terminals between the household and the local community. This is especially useful for teacher parent conferences as well as communicating with health officials. Each household will be entitled to individual bank accounts with the local bank for the payment of bills and other transactions electronically at no
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION charge. Refuse and recycling will be collected at a collection point at each apartment tower eliminating the high cost of curbside pickup faced by suburban communities. Public Schools
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Schools will provide all day instruction eliminating the need for after school programs. These programs will include sports, clubs, and other activities to balance the time between study and recreation. Schools will operate six days a week with a short day on Saturday. Each student will attend a neighborhood school and participate in a blend of in-class and online class activities. To insure that each child receives culturally relevant and in some cases dual-language instruction, half the class day will be spent online and in virtual environments. The biggest problem for local schools is providing support for the more than 100 languages spoken by immigrants and their children. By employing virtual classrooms, students can attend classes designed specifically for their particular cultural heritage, study in their native language, and engage with fellow students in a natural fun environment. By employing individual education plans monitored by a guidance counselor, students can move at their best pace mastering each subject prior to moving on to the next level of difficulty. This type of program provides a highquality education at the lowest possible price. Classes arranged around a students ability will insure successful outcomes. Day-Care for Children and Seniors Each group of apartments will have space reserved on the first floor for health clinics, dentists, day-care, play areas, recreation, and senior centers. The hope is that by mixing a variety of age groups together, seniors will be willing to help manage the local children and children will redevelop respect for older members of the community. Instead of sending seniors off to retirement villages, they will be encouraged to remain sprinkled through out the community
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supporting and engaging other community members. Seniors can provide a constant presence to deter mischief and petty criminal activities as well as encourage youth by example. Instead of sending everyone to large integrated hospitals, each complex will have a health clinic staffed by nursing professionals to provide immediate and regular health care, only referring the seriously ill to hospitals. This will reduce the cost of delivery for health care and provide opportunities to engage in preventive medicine with much lower costs. Clinics will dispense most medicines except for highly addictive drugs which must be prescribed by a licensed physician. Additionally, dental services will be provided at the housing complexes to encourage use. These facilities will be supplied at no rental cost to the operators to encourage professionals to support these activities and provide them at affordable rates. The cost of the space will be included in the purchase price of the complexs apartments and rental units. Security and Fire Protection Each complex will have a security office responsible for local security and dispute management. These community police will act as a go between for the local neighborhood and regular police who will investigate crimes. The intention is that community police will know all the residents allowing them to anticipate problems before they become serious. Eventually, it is hoped that these community police will restore trust in the police and develop good will in their communities. The community police will also double as firemen in the event of a fire. Professional police trained in criminal law will operate out of a central location and support multiple communities along with firemen. When designing a high-density city, it is important to manage the interrelationships between the different stakeholders to minimize conflict. Each neighborhood will develop its own characteristics and flavor, people are free to live their lives as they choose. The primary
ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION consideration is providing the expected services cost effectively and with the least possible
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impact on the community. Government should be a tool of the people to provide them with basic services, reduce risk, and be available when needed for emergencies.

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ENDING THE AMERICAN WINTER: A GREEN PRESCRIPTION

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