Water Management in Pakistan

8
Climate Change and Water Resources Management in Pakistan

ASAD SARWAR QURESHI
8.1 8.1.1
INTRODUCTION PHYSIOGRAPHY
Pakistan is located between latitudes 24oN and 37oN and longitudes 61oE to 76oE. It is bordered by India in the East, China in the Northeast, Afghanistan in the North, Iran in the Southwest and the Arabian Sea to the South (Fig. 8.1). Pakistan is divided into three major geographic areas: the Northern Highlands, the Indus River Plain, and the Balochistan Plateau. The Northern highlands include parts of the Hindu Kush, the Karakoram Range, and the Himalayas. This area includes famous mountainous peaks such as K2 and Nanga Parbat. The Indus Plain, stretches from the Salt range to the Arabian Sea. This flat plain is largely made up of 300 m deep alluvium, deposited by the Indus River and its tributaries. The Balochistan Plateau is in the Southwest of the country; with an average altitude of about 600 m. Dry hills run across the plateau from Northeast to Southwest. A large part of the Northwest is desert. Administratively, Pakistan is divided into four provinces, namely the Punjab, Sindh, Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan and several areas with special status. These include the State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Federally Administered Northern Areas (FANA). Pakistan has a federal government system and the provinces enjoy fair degree of autonomy. The land area of Punjab is 25.8%, Sindh 17.8%, NWFP 12.8% and Balochistan 43.6% of the total land area of Pakistan. The current population of Pakistan is 145 million with the population growth rate is estimated at 2.7%. Punjab has 56.5%, Sindh 22.6%, NWFP 15.8% and Balochistan has only 5.1% of the total population. The overall population density is 166 persons per sq. km. About 32% of the total population lives in urban areas, while 68% lives in rural areas. The total geographical area of Pakistan is about 80 million hectares (mha), out of which about 27% is currently under cultivation. The forest and desert cover about 4.8% and 14%, respectively. The forest resource is meager but it plays an important role in Pakistans economy by employing half a million people, providing about 3.5 million cubic meters (m3) of wood and one-third of the national energy need. Forests and rangelands support about 30 million herds of livestock, which contribute more than US$ 400 million to foreign exchange earnings. In recent years, forest cover has reduced due to continuous demands for fuel wood and illegal logging.
Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK
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WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN
Fig. 8.1 Map of Pakistan.
8.1.2
AGRICULTURE AND RURAL ECONOMY
Agriculture is the single largest sector of Pakistans economy, although its share to GDP has been steadily decreasing over the years as other sectors have expanded. Agriculture accounts for a large share in GDP, contributing about 25% in 1999/2000. It employs about 44% of the labor force, supports about 75% of the population and accounts for more than 60% of foreign exchange earnings. Over the last decade, agriculture grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% with some fluctuation in growth mainly on account of weather conditions. The arable agricultural resources base of Pakistan is about 22 mha, which is 27% of the total land area. About 17 mha are irrigated and 5 mha rainfed. The irrigated area produces almost 90% of all agricultural productions. The irrigated land is usually located in the river basins of the Indus. Though there are irrigated lands in the Northwest, Northeast to Southwest parts of the country, the proportion is small as compared to that in the Northern areas. The principal crops include wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and pulses. There have been significant increases in the gross production and yields of major crops including wheat, cotton, rice and sugarcane over the last three decades. However, the overall yield per hectare of most crops is still far below their demonstrated potential. Table 8.1 gives the detail of the cultivated area, production and yields of major cereal crops in 2000.
A. S. QURESHI Table 8.1 Cultivated area, production and yields of major crops in Pakistan
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Crops
Area (mha) 8.4 2.1 2.6 0.9
Production (million tons) 18.7 3.9 9.7 35.0
Yield (tons/ha) 2.3 2.0 0.7 46.9
Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane
Despite the marked geographical differences in wealth generating capacities across the country, there is a similarity to village society irrespective of location or agro-ecological zone. This cross-section covers small landholders, landowners, sharecroppers and landless tenants. The average holding is 3.8 hectares (ha). The vast majority of landholding falls in the range of 0.3 ha to 12.7 ha. Holding under 20 ha accounted for 14% of land ownership and those over 60 ha for 10%. Distribution of farm size is given in Table 8.2.
Table 8.2 Farm size distribution in Pakistan
Farm Size (ha) <2.0 2-5 5-10 10-20 20-60 >60
Farms (%) 12 26 22 16 14 10
Average Size of Farm Area (ha) 0.8 3.1 6.6 12.7 28.5 126.0
It is generally accepted that families with less than 0.5 ha of irrigated land have great difficulty in earning their livings solely from agricultural production in most parts of Pakistan. Therefore, off-farm income generating activities serve as an integral part to achieve a modest living. The majority of women in Pakistan work in agriculture. They constitute a large portion of the agricultural labor force. Livestock production plays important roles both in contributing to the national economy and livelihood for a large number of people living in rural and urban areas. Livestock sub-sector contributes to 35%-40% to the total agricultural sector, which is almost equivalent to the contributions of major crops. Livestock production contributes about 10% of total export earnings of the country (GOP, 1999). Total livestock population, including cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, horses, asses and mules, is estimated at 55 million heads. About 23 million or nearly 42% are found in Balochistan province, while NWFP hosts 15 million, Punjab 12 million and Sindh nearly 5 million. The structure of Pakistan rural society is based on numerous settlements many of which have very limited access to basic needs of life. Poverty is an overriding social problem. Although average per capita food availability of 2,700 calories is adequate, malnutrition is widespread, with a reported 8 million malnourished children (ABD, 2002). Average life expectancy is comparable with other South Asian nations, but infant mortality
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rate is above the regional average. Gender inequality is substantial. For example, literacy rate for males is 59% as compared to 35% for females. Majority of the population in Pakistan do not have access to safe drinking water and sanitation. The coverage of sanitation in Pakistan is lower than the water supply i.e., only 13.5% in rural areas (PWP, 2001). In most of the cities in Pakistan, the wastewater from the municipal areas as well as the effluents from the industries are disposed of untreated to the natural surface water bodies. In the country about 2,122 million gallons per day of sewerage is being thrown in the water bodies. Access to water for domestic purposes in the urban areas is limited to about 83% of the population. About 57% of the people have piped supply to their homes whereas in other mainly poor areas people get water either from community taps, hand pumps, wells or pay heavy cost to the water vendors. The present water use for municipal and industrial supplies in the urban sector is of the order of 5.3 BCM. Most urban water is supplied from ground water except for the cities of Karachi and Hyderabad and part of the supply to Islamabad. The demand is expected to increase to about 14.9 BCM by the year 2025. The present domestic water use in rural areas is estimated at 1.0 BCM. Most rural water is supplied from ground water except in saline ground water areas where irrigation canals are the main source of domestic water. Only about 53% of the rural population has access to drinking water from public water supply sources. The remaining population gets their drinking water supply from streams, canals, ponds or springs, etc that is untreated and unsafe for human consumption. 8.1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE CHAPTER
Pakistan is fast turning into a water scare country. The gap between demand and supply of water has increased to the levels creating unrest among the federating units. The extended drought during recent years exacerbated the problem. Future change in climate may impact water resources availability in Pakistan and that may lead to additional stress on the water dependent sectors especially the agriculture sector. This chapter has three broad objectives. First, it provides a comprehensive review of the present water resources of Pakistan and challenges faced by the irrigated agriculture; second, possible impacts on the water resources availability are discussed; and third, it highlights on the strategies to overcome these problems are to ensure sustainability of irrigated agriculture. 8.2 8.2.1 WATER RESOURCES IN PAKISTAN SURFACE WATER RESOURCES
Surface water resources of Pakistan are based on the flows of the Indus River and its tributaries (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej, Beas on the East and Kabul River on the West). The Indus River has a total length of 2,900 km and a drainage area of about 966,000 sq. km. The inflow to these rivers is mainly derived from snow and glaciers melt and rainfall in the catchment areas. Outside the Indus basin most of the rivers are ephemeral streams, which only flow during the rainy season and do not contribute significantly to the surface water resources. After the Indus Basin Treaty of 1960 between India and Pakistan, Pakistan was allowed exclusive use of three Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) and India was entitled to three Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas). This treaty also provided provision for the construction of a number of link canals, barrages and dams on the Indus and its two tributaries. The Indus basin has now developed into the largest contiguous irrigation
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system. The existing surface water system which is now all weir controlled, consists of 4 storage reservoirs (Warsak, Chasma, Mangla and Tarbela), 16 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals, 2 siphons, 44 canal commands (23 in Punjab, 14 in Sindh, 5 in NWFP and 2 in Balochistan), 59,000 km long irrigation canals and 107,000 km long watercourses. The Irrigation System commands a gross irrigable area of 16.85 mha, of which 14 mha is culturable command area (CCA) to which water is allocated. The perennial canal supply is available to 8.6 mha while the remaining area is entitled to irrigation supplies only during the summer (Kharif) season. In terms of the quantum of the surface water resources, the flows of Indus and its tributaries, available to Pakistan, are the most significant. The meager and highly variable flows of all other streams; offer only, a limited potential for adding to the stock of water. The Indus River and its tributaries, on an average, bring 190 BCM of water annually. This includes 179 BCM from the three Western Rivers (Indus, Chenab and Jehlum) and 11 BCM from the Eastern Rivers (Rave, Beas and Sutlej). Most of this, about 129 BCM, is diverted for irrigation. Fifty BCM flows to the sea and about 11 BCM are consumed by the system losses, which include evaporation, seepage and spills during floods (Zuberi, 1997). Although the surface flows of the Indus River and its tributaries available to Pakistan are quite significant, these are characterized by a great variation. Against the average annual inflow of 170 BCM, the historic data from 1922-1997 indicates a high of 230 BCM (34% higher than the average in 1960) and a low of 120 BCM (30% lower than the average in 1975). About 65% of the total river flows comes from the Indus alone, while the share of Jhelum and Chenab is 17% and 19%, respectively. Apart from the large annual fluctuations, there are large seasonal variations in these flows. The average inflow during the six months of summer cropping season is 142 BCM whereas the flow in the remaining six months of winter season is only 27 BCM. Table 8.3 gives history of seasonal variation in the inflow at Rim Stations, diversion and outflow to sea. The water quality of Indus River and its tributaries is generally considered excellent for irrigation purposes. The total dissolved solids (TDS) ranges from 100 ppm-200 ppm in the upper reaches to 350 ppm in the lower reaches of the Indus, which are reasonable levels for irrigated agriculture and also for domestic purposes. The disposal of saline drainage effluents has been a major factor in increased TDS quantity in the lower reaches of the rivers in Punjab. The BOD values of Jhelum, Chenab, Sutlej and Indus range between 2 mg/l to 5 mg/l. The p ollution in river Ravi is the highest of all the rivers in Pakistan. The river presently receives 47% of the total municipal and industrial pollution load discharged into the rivers of Pakistan. The BOD in the river is estimated to be 77 mg/l on the basis of mean annual flow. The DO contents in all rivers are above the acceptable levels of 4 mg/l (Halcrow, 2001; Haq, 1998). 8.2.2 GROUND WATER RESOURCES
The Indus basin is underlain by an extensive unconfined aquifer covering about 16 mha of surface area, of which 6 mha are fresh and the remaining 10 mha are saline (Haider et al., 1999). The aquifer has been built due to direct recharge from natural precipitation, river flow, and the continued seepage from the unlined canals, distributaries and watercourses and application losses from the irrigated fields. The safe ground water yield is estimated to be about 68 BCM, whereas the extraction from agriculture, domestic and industrial sectors is of the order of about 59 BCM. Thus the remaining ground water potential is about 9 BCM (PWP, 2001). The ground water table in most of the fresh ground water areas is falling therefore the potential of further ground water exploitation is very limited.
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The use of ground water for irrigation in Pakistan has a long history. In early days, the ground water abstraction was done by means of open wells with rope and bucket, Persian wheels, karezes, reciprocating pumps and hand pumps. The massive development of ground water from the Indus basin aquifer started in 1960s with the launching of Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs). Under this program, some 15,000 public tube wells of large capacity (60 l/s-150 l/s) were installed to lower the ground water table. This demonstration also led to the proliferation of private tube wells with a capacity of 30 l/s-60 l/s. Subsidized power supply and introduction of country made diesel engines provided an impetus for dramatic increase in the number of private tube wells from 10,000 in 1960 to over half a million in 2002. Category-wise distribution of private tube wells in different provinces of Pakistan is given in Table 8.4. State-wise distribution of tube wells is shown in Figure 8.2. Investment on the private tube wells is of the order of state-wise Rs. 25 billion (Pak Rs. 59 = US$ 1) whereas the annual benefits in the form of agricultural production are to the tune of Rs. 150 billion. The number of users is over 2.5 million farmers, who exploit ground water directly or hire the services of tube wells from their neighbors. Their behavioral patterns are highly variable and they understand little about any adverse interaction, which is likely to result due to unsystematic and erratic nature of ground water exploitation. Due to decreasing surface water supplies and occurrence of drought conditions, the population of private tube wells has taken a quantum jump over the last decade. The density of private tube wells per 1,000 ha in Punjab has increased to 46 in 2002 as compared to only 3 in 1965 (Fig. 8.3). The average utilization factor of private tube wells in Pakistan varies from 9% to 18% (Qureshi and Mujeeb, 2002). This variation in utilization factor is due to factors like cropping patterns, cropping intensity, agro-climatic zones, ground water quality, tube well types and growing seasons. The utilization factor of electric tube wells is almost double than the diesel tube wells. The main reason for higher utilization factor of electric tube wells is due to low operating and maintenance cost as compare to diesel tube wells in Pakistan. 8.2.3 GROUND WATER QUALITY
The ground water quality ranges from fresh (salinity less than 625 ppm near the major rivers to highly saline farther away, with salinity more than 1,800 ppm. About 79% (4 mha) of the area in Punjab province has access to fresh ground water. Saline waters are mostly encountered in Central Doab Areas. Cholistan area in the Southern Punjab is well known for highly brackish waters, which cannot be used for drinking purposes. In some parts of Punjab, there are also reports of high fluoride content (7 mg/l-12 mg/l) and high concentrations of arsenic (50 g/l) in the ground water. Ground water quality in the Indus basin is shown in Figure 8.4. In the Sindh province, about 28% of the area has access to fresh ground water. Large areas are underlain by poor quality of ground water. Indiscriminate pumping has resulted in contamination of the aquifer at different places where salinity of tube well water has increased. The situation is further complicated by the occurrence of high fluoride in some areas. In NWFP and Balochistan provinces, abstraction in excess of recharge in certain areas has lowered the ground water table and resulted in the contamination from underlying saline water. The ground water quality in Pakistan is generally poor and is becoming one of the major water resources issues.
Table 8.3 Inflows of the Indus and its tributaries (BCM)
Year
Rim Station1 Inflow Kharif Rabi Annual 143.5 135.5 113.0 161.6 160.1 135.9 147.1 28.6 32.8 32.1 43.4 35.9 39.6 32.3 172.1 168.3 145.2 204.9 196.0 175.5 179.3
Kharif 79.8 87.8 76.6 85.1 77.5 83.3 82.1
Diversion Rabi 45.4 47.8 45.4 50.3 48.8 44.0 46.7
Annual 125.1 135.6 121.9 135.4 126.3 127.3 128.8
Kharif 46.6 23.1 13.5 47.1 77.1 41.4 47.4
Outflow to Sea Rabi Annual 1.9 17.8 0.1 5.1 1.7 5.6 3.2 48.4 24.8 13.5 52.2 78.8 47.0 50.6
1975-1976 1980-1981 1985-1986 1990-1991 1995-1996 1997-1998 Average
A. S. QURESHI
A rim station, in the context of the Indus Basin Irrigation System, is a control structure (reservoir, barrage, etc.) on the river just when it enters into the Pakistani territory or upstream of the canal-irrigated Indus Plains of Punjab and Sindh provinces. The rim stations for the Indus System Rivers are the Kalabagh Barrage (or sometimes Tarbela Reservoir) for the main Indus River, Mangla Reservoir for the Jehlum River, Marala Barrage for the Chenab River and Balloki and Sulemanki Barrages for the Ravi and Sutlej Rivers.
1
203
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Table 8.4 Category-wise number of tube wells in Pakistan
Province Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Total
Electric Tube Wells 65,354 2,993 5,538 11,913 85,798
Diesel Tube Wells Peter Engine Tractor Operated 379,728 25,086 4,209 10,364 419,387 121,364 1,330 122,694
Total 566,446 28,079 11,077 22,277 627,879
Number of Tube Wells ('000)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1965 Punjab 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 Total
Sindh
NWFP
Balochistan
Fig. 8.2 Historical development of tube wells in four provinces of Pakistan.
50 No. of TWs/1000 ha 40 30 20 10 0 1965 Punjab 1970 1975 Sindh 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002
NWFP
Balochistan
Fig. 8.3 Increase in tube well density in four provinces of Pakistan.
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Fig. 8.4 Ground water quality of the Indus basin.
8.2.4
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE
Rainfall in Pakistan is markedly variable in magnitude, time of occurrence and its aerial distribution. However, almost two-thirds of the rainfall is concentrated in the three summer months of July to September. The mean annual precipitation ranges from less than 100 mm in parts of the Lower Indus Plain to over 750 mm near the foothills in the Upper Indus Plain (Bhatti and Akhtar, 2002). There are two major sources of rainfall in Pakistan: the Monsoons and the Western Disturbances. The Monsoons originate in the Bay of Bengal and usually reach Pakistan, after passing over India, in early July. They continue until September. The Indus Plains receive most of their rainfall from the monsoons. The relative contribution of rainfall in most of the canal commands is low when compared with the two other sources of irrigation water i.e., canal water and ground water. More than 60% of the Kharif season rainfall is concentrated in the month of July for almost all of the canal commands. The winter rains are generally widespread. The contribution of rainfall in agriculture sector is of the order of about 30 BCM (Hussain, 2002). The rainfall varies from the North and Northeast to the South of the country. It is only the canal command areas in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Northern most canal commands of the Punjab Province that receives some appreciable amount of rainfall during the summer as well as the winter season. The canal commands upstream of the rim stations (i.e., in the NWFP) receive almost 55% of their annual rainfall during the Kharif season. The canal commands in the Upper and Lower Indus Plains receive 75% and 85%-90% of the annual rainfall respectively, during the Kharif season. Located in the North of the tropic of cancer, Pakistan possesses a great range of climatic diversity, from some of the hottest in the world in Jacobabad and Sibi Districts to the snowy cold parts of Balochistan and Northern mountain areas. Along the coastal belt, the climate is modified by sea breezes. In plains, the minimum temperature in the month of
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January varies from 4C to 15C and in June/July from 30C to 39C. The maximum temperature in January varies from 17C to 24C and in June/July from 37C to 52C. Based on 10-year (1990-1999) data the average annual rainfall in some major cities of Pakistan is given in Figure 8.5.
1400 1200 1000
Rainfall (mm)
1320
800 600 400

183 310 147 130 155 322
724 528 276 346
247
200 0 Bahawalpur D.I.Khan
Fig. 8.5 Average 10-years (1990-1999) rainfall data of the 12 major cities of Pakistan.
Hyderabad
Jacoabad
Karachi
Khuzdar
Lahore
Multan
Peshawar
Quetta
Rawalpindi
Zhob
8.2.5
SMALL-SCALE WATER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FLOODS
Apart from the major surface water development based on the flows of Indus and its tributaries, the infrequent flows in the smaller streams have been developed through traditional means such as Rod Kohi, hill torrents and more recently attention has been paid to the construction of small dams in the upland areas for local uses. All these developments are typical of water scarce environments and are subject to the extreme variability in precipitation. Spring and floods contribute about 40 BCM as an additional source of surface water for agricultural purposes (Hussain, 2002). Hill torrents in the hilly areas of the country especially in NWFP and Balochistan provide another source of surface water, which has not been developed to its full potential. There are about 14 distinguishable hill torrents areas in all the four provinces of Pakistan offering a total potential of about 23 BCM at about 1,200 sites. Out of this almost 60% can be developed for crop production. This water offers excellent opportunity to irrigate about 2.5 mha of culturable wasteland in the hill torrent area (Halcrow, 2001). Flood irrigation (locally called as Rod Kohi) is widely practiced particularly in areas of hill torrents. Small dams, recharge dams and delay action dams have constructed by small communities to meet their local irrigation needs on a number of small streams. Rod Kohi is of immense value to small settlements and such irrigation has been serving as the main occupation and source of food needs. Floods are also a natural means of irrigation for riverine forests and other ecosystems with rich bio-diversity such as Manchar Lake, Haleji Lake and riverine ecosystems.
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8.3 8.3.1
MAJOR CHALLENGES LOSS OF STORAGE CAPACITY DUE TO SILTATION
The main source of surface water in Pakistan is the Indus River and its tributaries, all of which are perennial and have their origins in the mountains. The sources of supply of water to these rivers are snowmelt, seepage from geological formations and runoff generated by seasonal rains in the watershed areas. The runoff generated by rain erodes the soils and picks up the sediment and transports it into the reservoirs and dams. The scale of Indus and its potential effects are quite significant because of its size. The Indus River has the 7th largest delta in the world, and the 12th largest drainage area. Its annual water runoff places it 10th, and its annual sediment discharge places it 6th in the world. It is estimated that the Indus and its tributaries carry about 0.435 BCM of sediment annually of which nearly 60% remain in the system where it deposits in reservoirs, canals and irrigation fields. In 1990, the Indus River carried the 5th largest sediment load of the world, estimated over the whole basin of 16 mha at 4.5 tons of silt per hectare. In the Tarbela catchments area, it has been estimated that 167 m3/km2 per annum of silt are produced (PWP, 2001). The Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma Dams/Reservoirs play an important role in the economy of the country. Not only do they provide water for irrigation, but also generate cheap hydroelectric power. As in the case with most reservoirs, both the Mangla and Tarbela Reservoirs are facing the problems of sedimentation. According to recent investigations, the rate of loss in live storage capacity is 0.14 BCM per year for Tarbela and 0.031 BCM per year for Mangla Dam (PWP, 2001). Sedimentation in the three major reservoirs Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla is going to decrease their storage capacities and it will be 32% by the end of the year 2020. Table 8.5 gives the detail of the estimated loss of the storage capacity of the three major reservoirs until 2020 (WAPDA, 1999; Warsi, 1991; PWP, 2001). There was no provision of silt exclusion in the design of Warsak Dam, which resulted in silting up of the reservoir after three years of operation of the dam. Currently, the riverbed on the upstream side of Warsak Dam has been raised to the extent that the dam is essentially run-of-the-river, with no capacity for storage. 8.3.2 INCREASING GAP BETWEEN WATER AVAILABILITY AND DEMAND
Pakistan is also one of the countries that could face severe food and water crises in the 21st century. Continuous population growth with limited land and water resources has put an enormous pressure on the economy of the country. These pressures are the result of the increasing demand for food and ever limited possibilities for the extension of irrigation to other areas due to scarcity of water and costs of development. The population in Pakistan is increasing at a rate of 2.8% per year and has reached about 140 million. It is projected that the population will increase to 250 million in 2025. The percentage of urban population will increase from the current 35% to 52% by 2025. Compared to irrigation the current demand for domestic and industrial use is minimal. Because of continuous rise in population, water demand for domestic, industrial and non-agricultural uses will increase by about 8% and is expected to reach 10% of the total available water resources by the year 2025 (Bhutta, 1999). Water availability per capita will reduce to less than 600 cubic meters per capita in year 2025 (Fig. 8.6). This is roughly the value below which water availability becomes a primary constraint to life (Engelman and Leroy, 1993).
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Table 8.5 Capacity loss of on-line storage reservoirs
Reservoir
Year Live storage capacity (BCM) Decrease (%) Commissioned Initial 1997 2000 2010 2020 1997 2000 2010 2020 1967 1971 1974 6.5 0.9 11.9 5.7 0.5 10 5.5 0.4 9.8 5.2 0.2 9 4.9 0.1 8.1 12 44 16 16 15 56 18 19 20 78 24 25 25 89 32 32
Mangla Chashma Tarbela Total
19.3 16.2 15.7 14.4 13.1
In Pakistan, irrigation dominates water use and it is expected to continue as the major use of both surface and ground water resources in the future. The water requirements for irrigation are estimated at 250 BCM in 2025. The total water availability in the Indus basin is estimated at 185 BCM by the year 2025. Even by exploiting the full ground water resources, the water availability will not be more than 190 BCM. Considering the reduction in present storage capacities and non-availability of additional storage facilities, the shortfall of water requirements would be about 32% by the year 2025 (ADB, 2002). This shortfall of water will result in serious food shortages in the years to come and will severely hurt the national economy.
300 Population (millions) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1961 1968 1978 1987 Years
Fig. 8.6 Population growth and water availability per capita per year in Pakistan.
1600 1400 m water person 1000 800 600 400

Population
-1
Water/person
1200
200 0 2013 2025
2000
Due to increase in life expectancy and migration from rural to urban areas, the demographic profile of the country will undergo major changes in the next 25 years. Therefore the need of the population for agricultural products especially food grains, edible oil, milk, meat, fruits and vegetables will also increase. Estimated requirements of the agricultural commodities for the project population in 2025 are given in Table 8.6.
yr
-1
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Table 8.6 Agricultural requirements and projected productions and shortfalls of different crops for the year 2025 (million tons)
Crops Food-Grains Sugarcane Cotton (lint) Pulses Oilseed Vegetables Fruits Total
Requirement 50 82 3.5 1.9 3.3 14.3 16.1 171
Production 31.5 46.4 2.7 1.4 1.5 9.0 9.0 102.8
Shortfall 18.5 35.4 0.8 0.5 1.8 5.3 7.1 69.4
8.3.3
WATER LOGGING AND SOIL SALINIZATION
The introduction of large-scale irrigation without adequate drainage altered the hydrological balance in the Indus basin. At the time of construction of irrigation canals about a century ago, the ground water table depth in different canal command areas ranged between 20 m to 30 m below the soil surface. Therefore the need for provision of sub-surface drainage as a part of irrigation system was not felt. Persistent seepage over the years from unlined earthen canals and from a large network of distributing channels and percolation losses from irrigated fields, increased the ground water recharge substantially. In the absence of drainage in the canal command areas, the ground water table rose rapidly in vast irrigated areas to within 1.5 m of the soil surface. This created water logging and, consequently, soil salinity. These problems are more serious in saline ground water areas. The rise of the ground water table after the introduction of the irrigation system in Punjab is shown in Figure 8.7. The ground water table in the Indus basin fluctuates seasonally. In general, ground water tables are deepest at the end of the dry season (May-June) and shallowest immediately after the wet season (September). It is presently estimated that after the monsoon season, about 4.7 mha (30% of the irrigated area) have a ground water table within 1.5 m of the soil surface (severely waterlogged). Prior to monsoon, this area is reduced to about 2 mha i.e. 13% of the irrigated area (Tarar, 1995). The Punjab province has about 25% of its irrigated area severely waterlogged and Sindh has about 60% in the same category. Due to the presence of this shallow and saline ground water, about 40,000 ha are annually abandoned within the Indus basin due to secondary salinization. Figure 8.8 shows that about 46% of the irrigated land has ground water tables deeper than 3 m and this proportion is not affected by the season. To arrest and reverse the process of water logging and associated salinity problem, the Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs) were launched in 1960. Under this program, 57 SCARPs were planned and 15,000 public tube wells (with a capacity of 60 l/s-150 l/s) were installed. These SCARPs tube wells were pumping about 12 BCM of ground water per year. This scheme brought green revolution in 1970s and area under crop cultivation was doubled. However in late 1980s the performance of SCARPs started declining due to improper operation and maintenance, as well as, the ground water table started rising again. Since then the extent of problem keeps on changing and the present
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estimates show that about 13% of the area in the Indus basin has ground water table within 1.5 m from the surface and about 50% within 3 m from the surface (Fig. 8.9).
Fig. 8.7 Rise of the ground water table after the introduction of canal irrigation in the Punjab, Pakistan (after Sarwar, 2000). The ground water profiles are shown for the years 1920 and 1960.
50 Percent of Irrigated Area 40 30 20 10 0 0-1.5 1.5-3.0 >3.0 Ground Water Table Depth Range (m)
Fig. 8.8 Seasonal effects on ground water table depths in the Indus basin.
Before monsoon After monsoon
The Indus basin is faced with a considerable salt balance problem. The salts are brought in by the rivers and their tributaries. The average annual salt inflow by the Indus River water is estimated to be 33 million tons while the outflow to the sea is only 16.4 million tons. This means an annual average addition of some 16.6 million tons to the salt storage in the Indus basin. Out of this only 2.2 million tons is deposited in a series of evaporation ponds and the remainder of salts accumulates in the soil profiles in the irrigated lands and its underlying strata and aquifer (Nespak/MMI, 1993). This implies that, annually, an average of one ton of salts is added to each hectare of irrigated land. This salt
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accumulation is mainly causing salinization of the land. Therefore about 35% to 40% of the irrigated areas are affected by salinity. Out of this, 8% is severely affected and 6% moderately affected by salinity. Of course, the scale of the problem of salt accumulation in the root zone is even greater if saline ground water is used for irrigation.
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978 1982 1986 1988 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Years Percent of area of CCA less than 1.5 m Percent of area of CCA greater than 3.0 m
Fig. 8.9 Historical trends of waterlogged area in Pakistan.
Most of the soil salinity in the Indus basin is inherent, as it was produced during the process of soil formation. The secondary salinization associated with the shallow ground water tables and use of poor quality ground water for irrigation has further compounded the problem. Therefore salt-affected soils have become an important ecological entity in the Indus basin of Pakistan. It is estimated that nearly 6 mha are already afflicted with this menace, of which about half is in irrigated areas. An estimated 2 mha are abandoned due to severe salinity (Wolters and Bhutta, 1997). The extent keeps on changing due to dynamic nature of the problem. The problems of soils in the Indus basin are not only of salinity but also of sodicity. About 70% of the tube wells in the Indus basin pump sodic water, which contain high concentrations of carbonate and bicarbonate. Application of this quality of water for irrigation turn the soils to saline-sodic affecting soil structure and infiltration rates thereby restricting the growth of conventional crops. Salt-affected soils of the Indus basin are usually classified into four types (Qureshi and Barret-Lennard, 1998). The area affected and the characteristics of these four soil types are given in Table 8.7. The above facts indicate that the agricultural sector suffers deeply from both water logging and salinity. About 75% of the population and about half of the Gross National Product (GNP) are directly or indirectly related to the agricultural sector. This shows that the problems of water logging and salinity are not just agricultural problems, but that they do affect the country as a whole and ultimately the social fabric of Pakistani society. Water logging and salinity have very adverse social and economical effects on communities in Pakistan, causing poor living standards in affected areas and health problems for humans and animals. This situation has forced the local population to migrate to other areas.
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Table 8.7 Classification of salt-affected soils in the Indus basin (after Qureshi and Barret-Lennard, 1998)
Classification of Salt-Affected Soils Slightly saline-sodic Porous saline-sodic Severely saline-sodic Soils with sodic tube well water
Area Affected (million ha) 0.7 1.9 1.1 2.3
Characteristics
Slight salinity-sodicity problem, occurring as patches (about 20% of the area) in cultivated fields. Saline-sodic throughout the root zone, porous and pervious to water. Have high ground water tables, dense and nearly impervious to water. Severely sodic due to application of sodic tube well water. Contain high concentrations of carbonates and bicarbonates. Almost impervious.
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8.3.4
POOR GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT
Development of ground water has been a key contributor in enhancing agricultural productivity and drought mitigation. Ground water irrigation has largely supported employment generation, rural development and poverty alleviation. The flexibility provided by ground water has largely helped in providing confidence in the farmers and they are enjoying the benefits of ground water use. However, due to unsystematic and erratic nature of pumping, a number of problems have emerged in many areas. Under the prevailing circumstances the excessive use in certain areas has resulted in mining of the aquifers and/or deterioration of the ground water quality. There are, however, areas where the ground water development has lagged behind or where new technologies may be needed for skimming the shallow useable ground water. It has been estimated that by adopting appropriate technologies, 14 BCM of additional ground water can be exploited. Thus, there is a need for control on ground water pumpage in some areas, whereas in some areas, its use has to be encouraged. In Pakistan, ground water is considered as a Gods gift and there is no restriction or control on its abstraction. There is neither any mechanism for allocating ground water rights nor for regulating its use. Anybody can install a tube well anywhere in his land and extract any amount of water at any time without consideration of detrimental effects of his action on the resource and on others. Ground water abstraction from 1965 to 2000 has increased from 10 BCM to 69 BCM. Over 80% of ground water exploitation taking place in Pakistan is in the private sector. This unplanned pumpage of ground water is creating an array of management and equity problems. Due to continuous lowering of water table, the ground water has become inaccessible to the small poor farmers, which has questioned the sustainability of irrigated agriculture. Already 5% area in Punjab and about 15% in Balochistan have gone out of the reach of poor farmers (Qureshi and Mujeeb, 2002; 2003). This area is likely to increase to 15% in Punjab and 20% in Balochistan in the next decade. Excessive lowering of the ground water tables is making pumping more expensive and wells are going out of production. These problems have questioned the sustainability of this resource for various uses especially for agriculture. The average ground water table in the Indus basin has declined from 3.6 m in 1988 to over 7 m in 1996; and is declining at a rate of 1.5 m per year in some areas. Analysis of ground water table data of the Indus basin has shown that water tables are falling in 26 canal commands out of 45 (PWP, 2001). Depletion of ground water is occurring in those canal commands where water-allowance is low and crops are heavily dependent on ground water. Figure 8.10 shows the ground water depletion in the Indus basin during the last decade. 8.3.5 LOW SYSTEM EFFICIENCY AND CROP PRODUCTIVITY
The contiguous Indus Basin Irrigation System was designed about a century ago. The major objective of irrigation development at that time was to prevent crop failure and avoid famine (Jurriens and Mollinga, 1996). Another design feature was the low management and operational requirements, which is an advantage, with an inherent disadvantage of inflexibility. Increasing demand for food to cope with the ever-increasing population has caused the annual cropping intensities to rise to about 150%. Moreover, many canals can even no longer convey their official design capacity, due to siltation and erosion of banks. From the scarcity by design and the intensified farmer practices, over time canal water availability per unit of irrigated land has become even more limited.
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Fig. 8.10 Ground water depletion in the Indus basin during the last decade.
The Indus Basin Irrigation System consists of the perennial rivers, a network of unlined canals, distributaries and watercourses therefore an appreciable amount of water is lost through evaporation and seepage. Due to age and poor maintenance, the delivery efficiency of irrigation system is low, ranging from 35% to 40% from canal head to the crop root zone (Tarar, 1995). In practical terms, therefore, much surface water is currently lost enroute, which, if salvaged, could be profitably used by the farmers. The principal crops grown in Pakistan include wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize. There have been noteworthy improvements in gross production and yields of these major crops during the last three decades (Table 8.8). The growth in yields has ranged from
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0.9% per annum for rice to 3.4% for cotton. Increases in production and yield result from the introduction of new agronomic practices and technologies, improved crop management, higher use of agro-chemicals and increases in the availability of irrigation water. However, increases in gross production are mainly due to increase in area rather than crop yields. Although the yields of most crops have increased since the advent of green revolution in 1965, the overall per hectare yield for most crops except cotton are, however, still far below their demonstrated potential and yield in other countries.
Table 8.8 Increase in production (million tons) and yield (tons/ha) of major crops
Year
Wheat Prod. 3.92 21.08 538
Yield 0.76 2.50 328
Rice Prod. 1.32 5.16 391
Yield 0.94 2.05 218
Sugarcane Prod. Yield 22.31 46.33 207 37.37 45.9 123
Cotton (lint) Prod. Yield 0.41 1.92 468 0.26 0.46 177
1966 2000 % increase
Table 8.9 shows a comparison of major crop yields in several countries of the world. Under almost similar agricultural conditions, the average wheat yield in Egypt is more than double than in the Indus basin of Pakistan. Major reasons for these low crop yields are uncertain policies in marketing and pricing, poor dissemination of technologies to the farmers, inefficient post harvest processing and storage. Improvements in these areas can bring a major economic gain to the farmers in a relatively short period.
Table 8.9 Comparison of different crop yields in (tons/ha) different countries
Country Pakistan India Egypt China USA World
Wheat 2.5 4.9 5.9 3.8 6.5 4.8
Rice 3.07 2.97 8.49 6.34 6.69 3.83
Sugarcane 47.8 69.0 107.4 64.2 64.7
Cotton 1.92 0.85 2.26 2.87 1.79 1.62
Despite the shortage of water, the overuse of water in irrigation is a major problem in Pakistan. The impact of this is not only the wastage of water, which could be directed to other sectors or expansion of agriculture, but it also leads to water logging and salinity. This, in turn, reduces crop yields (a reduction of 25% overall and a high of 40% in Sindh). Irrigated agriculture yields can be increased through the use of improved technology and better management of the highly complex agricultural management system. It is estimated that to meet the food requirements of the country, cultivated area of wheat would need to increase by 46% at present yield levels. Similarly areas for other crops will need to be increased. However, given the present situation water resources, it will not be possible. Therefore the only way to achieve this food target is to increase the water productivity. The productivity of water in Pakistan is amount the lowest in the world. For
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wheat for example it is 0.5 kg/m3 as compared to 1.0 kg/m3 in India and 1.5 kg/m3 in California (IWMI, 2000). The maize yields in Pakistan are very low and there is a tremendous scope for substantial improvements in the maize yields. In terms of water productivity, maize has a factor of nine between lowest in Pakistan (0.3 kg/m3) and highest in Argentina (2.7 kg/m3). This reveals that there is a substantial scope for increasing water productivity in Pakistan. 8.3.6 DROUGHT
Due to global climatic changes, frequency of droughts has increased in recent years. The drought phenomenon (dry year) has been observed to occur in 4 out of 10 years instead of 3 out of 10 years. The precipitation during 1997-2000 has been exceptionally low i.e. 50% of the normal. This resulted in low river flows and not only precious human lives were lost but also thousands of livestock heads died due to shortage of fodder crops. According to one estimate, only during 1999-2000, 143 humans and 2.48 million livestock died due to severe drought conditions. The drought of the year 2001 has been termed as one of the worst in the history of the country and can be judged from the fact that it was the major cause behind the low economic growth rate of 2.6% of last year. Agricultural growth has, however, suffered a severe setback during 2000/2001 due to the unprecedented drought situation and shortage of irrigation water, causing a decline of 2.5% as against an impressive growth of 6.1% last year (PWP, 2001). This drought caused a loss of Rs. 25 billion to the national exchequer in the year 2000-2001 (UN, 1999). The loss of livestock to drought was about 43% in Punjab, 40% in Balochistan and NWFP, and 66% in Sindh. The cumulative loss, in the last three drought years, is estimated at 43% of the countrys livestock population. Heavy direct losses due to animal mortality, production losses and distress sales of animals have been widely reported. If the productivity levels can be restored to levels similar to the rest of the region, then Pakistan should be able to resolve medium to long-term food security concerns. Meteorologists, who blame the prolonged drought on the La Nina weather phenomenon, warn that the country has entered a dry cycle and can expect drought-like conditions to return every 3 to 4 years. Experts predict that with the prevailing consumption rates and a population growth of 4 million people a year, 1 out of 3 people in Pakistan will face critical shortages of water, threatening their very survival. Environmental experts suggest that underground aquifers of Balochistan province are dropping at 3.5 m annually, and will run out in 15 years. Massive internal displacement is expected. According to the United Nation (1999) the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh continue to be under the stress of drought along with Cholistan region in Punjab and the Southern Districts of NWFP. In the province of Balochistan, for the last three years, the monsoon rains, which generally occur in the months of July-September, have touched only Eastern areas of the province with limited and scattered precipitation whereas large parts of the Central and Western areas received no rain. The Sindh province and rainfed regions of Punjab and NWFP are suffering equally from the shortage of water due to the below normal monsoon of last year and nearly 40% below normal current winter rains. Figure 8.11 shows the severely drought hit areas of Balochistan and Sindh provinces.
8.3.7
DISPOSAL OF SALINE DRAINAGE EFFLUENT
The Indus Plain is characterized by a lack of any well-defined natural surface drainage and differences in micro-relief define the pathways for surface runoff during the monsoon
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Fig. 8.11 Map of severely drought hit areas of Pakistan.
season. The surface drainage problems are further aggravated by the construction of infrastructures like roads, railways, flood embankments and the irrigation system. Due to the flat nature of the Indus basin, natural sub-surface drainage through down valley movement of ground water is also restricted. Therefore, ponding of agricultural lands following intense rainstorms, with consequent crop and property damages, has become a recurrent phenomenon in many parts of the Indus Plains. The need for surface drainage of agricultural lands has long been recognized and measures were taken to construct surface drains in areas prone to severe damage. Even though about 15,000 km of surface drains have been constructed to date, crop losses because of rain flooding remain excessive, especially in the Punjab and Sindh provinces (Afzal, 1992). The Indus River and its tributaries is the only natural drainage outlet to the sea and also the major source of irrigation water supply. The capacity of the river system to accept saline drainage effluent is therefore limited and depends upon the water quality standards adopted both for irrigation and other uses. The Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) takes the drainage water from the areas on the left bank of the Indus River in Sindh. Construction of the Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD) is planned to take the drainage water from the areas on the right bank of the Indus River in Sindh to the sea. Economic disposal arrangements of saline effluent to the sea are possible if the drainage system is designed and regulated in the same way as the canal system. The ultimate drainage requirements of saline drainage effluent are 13.5 BCM i.e. 3.63 BCM from Punjab and 9.82 BCM from Sindh and Balochistan. The requirements of drainage in Sindh are high due to extent of saline ground water as well as relatively high water allowances for the crop grown, particularly rice (Halcrow, 2001).
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8.4 8.4.1
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES: THE WAY FORWARD CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
CICERO (2000) has estimated 0.9oC increase in temperature by 2020, doubling to 1.8oC by 2050. There is an uncertainty about precipitation, which may change by 3% by 2020, and 6% by 2050. Scenarios for sea level may be 20 cm by 2020 and 30 cm by 2050. These synthetic scenarios are consistent with the results from climate models. The CSIRO9 model predicts a 17% increase in wet (summer) season rainfall in South Asia for doubling of CO2. When the CSIRO9 scenarios have been scaled to correspond to the low, medium, and high IS92 emissions scenarios of the IPCC, the range lies between 5% and 50%. These results are supported by some other climate models, including the CCC (now CCCma), UKMOH and GFDLH, which project 20%, 24%, and 59% increases, respectively. Temporal changes in extreme precipitation events are also expected. The CSIRO9 model projects that the average time period between heavy rainfall events may be reduced by more than one-half (Watson et al., 1998). CICERO (2000) has suggested that the impacts of climate change should consider the differences between the projected socio-economic conditions without climate change (the reference case) and those that are projected with climate change. The socio-economic conditions are significant determinants for reduced vulnerability and adaptive capacity. 8.4.2 8.4.2.1 IMPACTS ON WATER AND OTHER ASSOCIATED SECTORS IMPACTS ON THE INDUS RIVER BASIN
The small changes in the climate could have a significant effect on water availability, as experienced in recent years, in some parts of the world. Climate changes could have major effects on precipitation and runoff. With increase in temperature, evaporation is expected to increase. Wigley and Jones (1985) showed that a modest change in precipitation in the river basins with low precipitation could have proportionally large impact on water supplies. This is particularly important for the arid and semi-arid regions like Pakistan. Masood and Ullah (1991) examined impacts of future climate change on water availability in the Indus River basin. They used a 30-year historical discharge data for comparing the results. The UBC-Mongla watershed model was used to forecast inflows to the Mongla reservoir. The model requires daily temperature and precipitation data as inputs. Three arbitrary climate change scenarios were used for the assessment. Results are presented in Tables 8.10, 8.11, 8.12 and 8.13 and they demonstrate few observations. Negative changes occur in the Kharif season, and positive changes occur in the rabi season. Nevertheless, without a change in precipitation, the net change is negative in both 2020 and 2050. Based on water requirements for crops and current yields, efficiency of both water and land-use has to be doubled by 2020. Evaporation rates from lakes, ponds, ground water, flowing water and water supply systems are expected to increase as a result of rise in temperature (Table 8.13). It is estimated that an additional 1.476 mha-m and 1.845 mha-m must be added to the system by 2020 and 2050, respectively to meet increasing water demand of the key economic sectors.
Table 8.10 Summary of regional, seasonal and monthly inflows (in mha-m) and variations
Flow Inflow Change With base% Month Inflow Change With base%
Main 16.04 -0.05 -0.34 1 0.67 0.004 -0.70 2 0.40 0.009 -2.28
Main scenario-2020 (0.3 C and o% PPT per decade) Eastern Others Rabi Kharif 1.23 0.59 2.99 14.87 --0.02 -0.01 0.01 -0.11 -2.17 -2.37 0.48 -0.74 3 0.38 0.007 -1.94 4 0.37 0.003 0.91 5 0.40 0.009 2.41 6 0.76 0.023 3.14 7 1.12 0.021 2.00 8 1.67 0.002 -0.17 9 2.67 0.059 -2.18 10 3.74 0.109 -2.84
Total 17.86 -0.07 -0.54 11 3.85 0.023 0.60 12 1.81 0.016 0.92
Flow Inflow Change With base% Month Inflow Change With base%
Main 15.99 -0.11 -0.679 1 0.664 0.077 -1.41 2 0.394 0.153 -4.56
Main scenario-2050 (0.3 C and o% Eastern Others 1.21 0.571 -0.054 -0.028 -4.341 -4.750 3 0.375 0.123 -3.88 4 0.377 0.055 1.81 5 0.413 0.155 4.83 6 0.779 0.375 6.29
PPT per decade) Rabi Kharif 3.00 14.76 0.028 -0.221 0.954 -1.474 8 1.669 0.047 -0.34 9 2.618 0.972 -4.37 10 3.632 1.778 -5.68
Total 17.76 -0.193 -1.07 11 3.874 0.377 1.21 12 1.827 0.268 1.84
7 1.138 0.356 4.00
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220 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN
Table 8.11 Monthly change (%) from baseline for the three climate scenarios
Year Month
0.3 C & 0%PPT 0.91 2.41 3.14 2.00 -0.17 -2.18 -2.84 0.60 0.92 -0.70 -2.28 -1.94 -0.54
2020 o 0.3 C & +1%PPT 6.19 10.27 6.03 5.85 3.63 0.25 0.82 4.68 -4.58 3.15 -0.30 2.42 2.21
0.3 C & -1%PPT -2.25 -1.88 -0.78 -1.92 -2.95 -4.71 -5.49 -1.99 -1.90 -3.12 -4.68 -4.59 -3.35
0.3 C & 0%PPT 1.81 4.83 6.29 4.00 -0.34 -4.37 -5.68 1.21 1.84 -1.41 -4.56 -3.88 -1.07
2050 o 0.3 C & +1%PPT 15.29 24.11 18.03 22.76 9.91 0.64 2.00 11.05 12.28 7.82 0.87 7.14 8.47
0.3 C & -1%PPT -4.50 -3.75 -1.56 -3.85 -5.89 -9.42 -10.98 -3.98 -3.80 -6.24 -9.35 -9.18 -6.69
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
A. S. QURESHI Table 8.12 Total water availability
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Base Source Available at rim stations Rainfall in the canal command areas Total inflow 1 Required below Kotri Evaporation @10% 2 Seepage losses@30% Total surface water 3 Ground water Total available Total water availability in 2020* o 0.3 C and 0%PPT/decade o 0.3 C and 1%PPT/decade o 0.3 C and -1%PPT/decade Total water availability in 2050* o 0.3 C and 0%PPT/decade o 0.3 C and 1%PPT/decade o 0.3 C and -1%PPT/decade Total 17.96 3.08 21.03 1.23 1.98 5.35 12.48 5.41 17.89 17.43 18.03 17.07 17.03 18.21 16.28 Rabi 2.98 0.58 3.56 0.62 0.30 0.80 1.86 1.35 3.21 3.13 3.25 3.06 3.06 3.29 2.92 Kharif 14.98 2.49 17.47 0.62 1.69 4.55 10.62 4.06 14.68 14.32 14.79 14.01 13.96 14.92 13.37
Nazir (1993), 1water accord, 2assumed 30% safe potential by Tarar (1997), 3evaporation from ground, @ general mean evaporation. Table 8.13 System evaporation
Year Growth Rate Dams Lakes/ponds From ground From flowing water Water supply @15% Net losses
Base 1990
0.9 C 2020** High Low 0.36 0.54 1.30 3.87 0.20 6.27 0.36 0.54 1.30 3.87 0.20 6.29
1.8 C 2050** High Low 0.369 0.5781 1.3776 4.0713 0.3075 6.7035 0.37 0.58 1.38 4.07 0.38 6.78
0.33 0.52 1.23 3.69 5.77
*Based on existing rate of evaporation in the system (Nazir, 1993), ** mean evaporation for climatic scenarios. Water supply served to 50% of the population in 2020 and 75% in 2050. 1.23 ha-m storage added to the system in 2020.
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Increases in precipitation may result in higher inflow. This may open an oppportunity of construction of small dams. However, higher precipitation may also result in increased silt loads, which may affect the structural stability of the dams. A decrease in precipitation would increase evaporation losses, and shallow ponds would dry more quickly. HYDROPOWER GENERATION
8.4.2.2
Climate change may have some effects on the hydropower generation. Currently hydropower contributes 28% to the countrys total generation of 17,651 MW. The share of hydropower may increase in future as the government of Pakistan is planning to reduce the overall cost of generation. Note that the cost of generation has increased due to fossil fuel based generation, which constitutes 72% of the supply (MOE, 2003). The MOE (2003) estimated the likely effect of climate change on the hydropower with some arbitrary scenarios (Table 8.14). In the 2020, under no change in precipitation scenario, the increase in hydropower is 1.5 MW. However, with only 1% increase in precipitation, the generation may increase by 50 MW. With a drought scenario, the generation may be reduced by as much as 200 MW. Therefore any reduction in precipitation will have a significant impact on the hydropower generation (MOE, 2003).
Table 8.14 Changes in hydropower generation at main dams
Scenarios 2000 0.3oC + 0% PPT* 0.3oC + 1% PPT 0.3oC - 1% PPT 0 0.02 -0.01
Changes (in %) 2010 2020 0.04 0.86 -0.83 0.03 1.98 -1.46
2050 0.22 4.32 -3.85
* These scenarios are at the low end. GOP/UNEP (1998) constructed climate change scenarios for Pakistan, which showed +0.9oC temperature increase and 3% increase in precipitation for 2020.
8.4.2.3
IMPACTS ON THE COASTAL REGION
Pakistan, with its thousand kilometers long coast is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Karachi, the largest city of Pakistan where almost 10% of the total population lives, and about 40% of all manufacturing units is situated on the coast. Analysis of tide gauge data processed at the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) shows that along the coast, sea level rise is approximately 1.1 mm/year. This is similar to the global mean sea level rise of 0.1 m-0.2 m reported by the IPCC (2001). Therefore, Pakistan may experience a sea level rise similar to the maximum global projected rise of 90 cm by 2100 (MOE, 2003). The primary impacts of sea level rise impacts may include increased risk of erosion, coastal flooding, permanent inundation and displacement of wetlands and lowlands and degradation of water quality through salinization of ground and surface water (MOE, 2003). Increased risk of occurrence of severe cyclones and storm-surges is also expected due to changes in air and sea surface temperatures. Cyclones are associated with high-pressure gradients and consequent strong winds and heavy rains, while a storm-surge is an abnormal rise of sea level near the coast caused by a severe cyclone. As a result seawater inundates vast stretches of low lying coastal area and cause extensive
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damage to life and property by drowning human beings and livestock, eroding beaches and embankments, destroying vegetation and reducing soil quality and fertility. 8.4.2.4 COASTAL EROSION
Severe erosion has been reported in the islands at the approaches of the creeks in the Indus Delta (MOE, 2003). The creeks which are near the present outfall of the Indus River, at the concave bulge of the delta are facing erosion due to natural hydraulic forces which include reduction in the supply of sediments by the river and wave actions in the comparatively recently formed delta together with the arid condition of the delta itself. On the West (Makran) Coast, erosion already threatens coastal property, coastal agriculture land and habitats, and a further sea level rise may intensify such damaging effects (MOE, 2003). 8.4.2.5 IMPACTS ON THE INDUS DELTAIC COAST
Until now, it is not clear whether the combined effects of climate change and water development will yield more or less water for the Indus Delta (MOE, 2003). If freshwater inflows to the delta were reduced by climate change and upstream water development, the historical processes of economic and ecological degradation would continue. Establishment of minimum flows from Kotri Barrage to the Indus Delta is an urgent policy issue to offset the likely effect of climate change. 8.4.2.6 INUNDATION OF COASTAL AREAS
Sea level rise can cause significant flooding impacts in the coastal zone, particularly in the low-lying deltaic regions. These areas would become more vulnerable to flooding because a higher sea level provides a higher base for storm-surges to build upon. For example, the shoreline of Karachi has retreated in recent decades. More severe monsoons and a rise in sea level may inundate citys street for longer periods by reducing coastal drainage. The Indus Delta, South of Karachi, already retreating because of a sharply reduced silt load, could lose up to 25% of its area due to sea level rise (climate.org, 2004). 8.4.2.7 SALINIZATION OF SURFACE AND GROUND WATER
Because of sea level rise, saltwater will penetrate further upstream and inland, as was the case in the lower Indus Plain (Fig. 8.12). This effect would be particularly evident during a drought. Sea level rise would also enable saltwater to ingress farther inland, and upstream into the rivers, wetlands, and aquifers, which would be harmful to aquatic flora and fauna, and would threaten human uses of water (MOE, 2003). Increased salinity has already been reported in most of the coastal areas especially in the lower deltaic plain region. A rising sea level, combined with decreased river flow and sediments dispersal, would result in a land ward penetration of the saltwater wedge within the columns of ground water aquifers. This would have significant implications for communities living in the coastal regions. 8.4.2.8 CYCLONES AND STORM-SURGES
The Indus deltaic creeks are critically located on the path of cyclones of the Arabian Sea (MOE, 2003). One cyclone/year is usually generated in the Arabian Sea. About 75% of
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these cyclones lands at the Omani Coast on the Western Arabian Sea and the remaining 25% move clockwise and cross the coast near the Rann of Kutch. Sometimes the cyclones cross the Indus deltaic coast. The frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea was 0.86 per year for the period 1891 to 1960 and 1.25 per year for the period 1967 to 1970 (MOE, 2003). Analysis of five years data (1992-1996) shows that the frequency has increased significantly to 2.2 cyclones per year. In the last seven years (1996-2003), two cyclones have crossed the Indus deltaic coast, whereas in the period from 1891 to 1960, only six cyclones crossed the Indus deltaic coast. Climate change is postulated to increase the frequency and severity of cyclones and storm-surges along the coast of some areas (IPCC, 2001). Table 8.15 gives the maximum surges at different sites. The model was calibrated using this basic data.
Fig. 8.12 Seawater Intrusion Observed from Satellite (Source: MOE, 2003). Table 8.15 Maximum surge at selected sites
Location Gwadar Pasni Ormara Sonmiani Karachi PQA Keti Bander
Coastal Surge Height (m) 0.82 1.40 1.00 1.70 2.56 2.40 2.01
The problems of water resources management in Pakistan are complex and a straightforward solution seems impossible. In order to increase agricultural production and sustainability of irrigated agriculture, the overall strategy should be to increase water capital and make better use of water. For quick recovery of water sector, increase in crop
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production and improvement in water use efficiency and environmental sustainability, following steps may be identified. 8.4.3 IMPROVEMENTS IN THE WATER USE AND SYSTEM EFFICIENCIES
Future prosperity will depend to a considerable extent on how well we harness our freshwater resources and how efficiently we use them. The way water is being used will have to change significantly if sustainable development is to be achieved in Pakistan. Despite the overall shortage, the overuse of water in irrigation is a major problem in Pakistan. Farmers are ignorant of actual crop water requirements and irrigation practices are still largely based on the maximum amount of water a farmer can capture. Therefore present irrigation practices of farmers include a tendency to over-irrigate, whereas the opposite should be accomplished. The impact of this is not only the wastage of water, which could be directed to other sectors or expansion of agriculture, but it also leads to water logging and salinity. This situation is directly related to the low efficiency of irrigation system and poor irrigation management at farm and system levels. This, in turn, has led to a reduction in crop yields (a reduction of 25% overall and a high of 40%-60% in Sindh) lower overall agricultural productivity and loss of cultivable land. It is estimated that about 50% of the water is lost from canal heads to the root zone. Increasing irrigation efficiency, therefore, will result in improved crop yield and overall agricultural productivity as well as reduced water use. There is also a need to reduce the water losses from the water supply systems. The water use efficiency both in irrigation and water supply sub-sectors in Pakistan are very low. Therefore water conservation is critical to meet the needs of all water sub-sectors. This will require a concerted effort in watershed management to reduce degradation of upper catchments so that runoff is moderated and sedimentation is minimized. The greatest effort in water conservation should be made in the irrigated agriculture sub-sector because this is by far the greatest user of water. Even relatively modest improvements in irrigation efficiency will result in significant reductions in water use, which can then be reallocated to other uses, primarily urban and rural domestic water supplies. Improved water management through institutional strengthening and increasing participation of water users in water management will likely have the greatest impact. 8.4.4 SUSTAINABLE GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT
Increasing demand for water has put enormous pressure on the ground water resources. Consumption of ground water has reached the upper limit in most parts of Pakistan. The ground water tables in most of the freshwater areas are falling and therefore the potential of further ground water exploitation is very limited. In Balochistan, ground water tables are falling at a very fast rate and it is estimated that deficit in Quetta sub-basin is about 26 million cubic meter (mcm) per year. With this frequency, aquifer storage will be exhausted in 20 years. The overexploitation of this resource has caused devastating impacts on drinking water supplies for urban and rural population. For the preservation of this future resource, the government needs to develop appropriate policies to effectively manage and monitor ground water development and use. Steps should be taken for the revision and enforcement of ground water regulatory laws. Communities should be directly involved in the campaign of artificially recharging the aquifers and in the conjunctive use and management of surface and ground water resources.
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8.4.5
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LAND-USE PATTERNS
The types of crops grown need to be rationalized to ensure that the crops grown are efficient in terms of water use and economic productivity. The traditional cropping pattern of rice and wheat has benefited from increased irrigation supplies. Since rice is a water-intensive crop, it is essential to review whether Pakistan should continue to grow rice for export or instead use this water for other crops where the country has a comparative advantage. A review of the past five years of agriculture in all four provinces clearly demonstrates that the traditional cropping patterns are economically taxing. Modern research has shown several alternative cropping patterns that can raise productivity of existing farm systems. In the intensive agriculture systems of Punjab, Sindh and NWFP there are ample opportunities to increase farmers income from technologies such as zero tillage, introduction of high value crops like sunflower, pulses, vegetables and orchards, etc. 8.4.6 INTRODUCTION OF IMPROVED IRRIGATION AND CULTURAL PRACTICES
The major concerns regarding performance of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan are low crop yields and low water use efficiencies at the farm level. The overall irrigation application efficiency in Pakistan is only about 60%. Farmers in Pakistan use basin or flooding method irrigation. The distribution of water in the field is also not uniform due to inadequate land leveling and irrigation application practices. This uneven distribution of irrigation water produces patches of low and high infiltration rates, which in turn produces patches of low and high salinity within the same field. Farmers usually do not have enough knowledge of crop water requirements and their irrigation amounts are based on estimates. Therefore efforts should be made to educate farmers through extension services about the exact amount of irrigation water required for optimizing crop production. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt water conservation measures. Adaptation of water conservation strategies can save up to 25% of the water resources without compromising on crop yields (Sarwar and Bastiaanssen, 2001). The water saved through conservation measures can be used to bring more areas under irrigation. Improved cultural practices such as precision land leveling, zero tillage, bed and furrow planting can also help a great deal for on-farm water saving. Furrow-bed method of irrigation can save up to 40% of irrigation water as compared to basin irrigation method (Qureshi et al., 2002). Farmers should also be encouraged to use water efficient irrigation techniques such as sprinkler and drip irrigation systems. These techniques have been very successful in saving considerable amounts of irrigation water. The sprinkler irrigation for crops and drip irrigation for fruits/forests plants provide an alternate option for farming and resource conservation in these areas. Therefore, there is a need to introduce these systems with operations that are cost effective and adaptable to farmers, crops and physical local conditions. Now a days small and cost-effective pressurized irrigation systems are available. Considering the costs involved in the land development, the investments required for the installation of these systems is feasible. 8.4.7 DROUGHT FORECASTING AND MANAGEMENT
Pakistan has a history of droughts of varying severity and will continue to experience in the coming years due to climatic changes, which are occurring in the region. Given the
A. S. QURESHI
227
countrys variable climatic conditions and vulnerability to drought, water availability for agriculture is likely to be a subject of debate both for rainfed as well as for irrigated agriculture. Therefore the efficient use of water must be the foundation for a fully productive agriculture sector. Traditional coping and mitigating strategies have been broken down under growing population pressures and the collapse of the rural economy. For poverty alleviation, farmers should be provided with the opportunities to generate off-farm incomes. 8.4.8 PROMOTION OF RAINWATER HARVESTING TECHNOLOGIES
Farmers in the rainfed areas should be encouraged to use water harvesting and watershed management, including more water storage structures both small and large. Farmers should be introduced and trained in the use of modern water saving technologies and crop varieties, which has proven successful in other arid environments similar to Pakistan. One mode of rain harvesting is to channelise rainwater from rooftops through drainpipes into a pit. The terraces and roofs of houses and building complexes can be converted into catchment areas for rainwater by this simple technique. Rainwater harvesting can also be introduced in public and community wells situated near slums and in villages, draining water from nearly rooftops and streets into them. Connecting storm water drain lines to tanks and rivers can greatly improve the water position of a city with little effort and maintenance. 8.4.9 USE OF WASTEWATER FOR AGRICULTURE
The total annual quantity of wastewater produced in Pakistan is estimated at 4.5 BCM. This amount of wastewater can effectively be used for augmenting the water resources. South Africa is currently supplementing its water supplies by the reuse of 4.6 BCM per year of wastewater. Similar approach can be used in Pakistan. The use of wastewater will not only increase the water availability but also reduce the requirement of reducing these pollutants to environmentally acceptable limits. The lack of treatment of wastewater is caused by the lack of investment in this sector and the non-functioning of plants is mainly related both institutional problems and inadequate maintenance. Major industries responsible for the generation of wastewater should be forced to treat it before disposing it into the main water bodies. 8.4.10 USE OF SALINE WATER FOR AGRICULTURE
Presently, the use of saline water is restricted to growing salt resistant crops. Such crops as grasses for fodder, bushes and trees such as eucalyptus have proved in providing a reasonable economic return to the farmers of the saline areas. While this may not have a widespread benefit, there is likely a potential for local improvements in farmer income. There is a strong need to develop techniques for using saline lands and brackish water for major crops. Techniques like sequential biological concentrations have proved to be very successful in growing valuable crops using highly saline waters by providing extra leaching through the installation of efficient drainage systems. These technologies should be tested for local conditions. 8.4.11 IMPROVEMENT OF INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS
Lack of coordination between inter-departments at the provincial and federal level has
228
been one of the major bottlenecks in successful and effective implementation of various water management strategies. In Pakistan, water resources are managed by different organizations therefore appropriate institutional arrangements should be made for proper coordination of different ministries and line agencies involved in the management of water resources. The roles and responsibilities of these organizations should be clearly defined to avoid overlapping and to ensure effective management of water resources at all levels. 8.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS
Pakistan, once a water surplus country due to extensive water resources of the Indus River and its tributaries, is now fast turning into a water scarce country. It is estimated that to feed the increasing population, 40% more food would be required by the year 2025. On the other hand, due to reduction in present storage capacities and lack of compatible development of water resources, per capita water availability will be reduced to 600 m3 by that time. The scope of expansion in irrigated area will also be limited due to shortage of land and water resources. The problems of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan are complex and no straightforward solution is possible. Large tracts of irrigated lands are salinized and others are under threat. Areas where proper drainage facilities are rare. Due to an overall shortage of canal water, use of poor quality ground water for irrigation has become a necessity. This practice is adding huge amounts of salts in root zone, which are not only aggravating the problem of soil salinization but also reducing crop yields. Therefore Pakistan has to fight at many fronts at the same time. In order to increase sustainability of irrigated agriculture to ensure future food security, the following potential solutions can be suggested: Improve irrigation efficiencies to save more water for irrigation; Conserve water at all levels and increase productivity of water; Minimize drainage requirements to reduce disposal problems; Evacuate salts from the root zone to arrest soil salinization; Manage water quality to maintain acceptable salt balance at field and system levels; Improve irrigation water distribution to increase reliability of water supply at farm.
The absence of institutional arrangements is perhaps the greatest barrier for the formulation and evaluation of strategic options and monitoring the implementation of national policies for public water sector. Therefore in addition to technical solutions, strong linkages between different organizations involved in the management of land and water resources need to be developed. This will help for consistent planning, coordination and monitoring of policy implementations.
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REFERENCES
Asian Development Bank (ADB): Water Resources Strategy Study, Draft Report Vol. 1, Islamabad, Pakistan, 2002. Afzal, M.: Economics of Drainage and Reclamation Measures: A Case Study from Pakistan. Proceedings of 5th International Drainage Workshop, Lahore, Pakistan, ICID-CIID, IWASRI, Vol. III, 6.185-6.194, 1992. Bhutta, M. N: Vision on Water for Food and Agriculture: Pakistan Perspective: Regional South Asia Meeting on Water for Food and Rural Development, New Delhi, June 1-3, 1999. Bhatti, M. A. and Akhtar, M. J. U.: Increasing Irrigated Agriculture Productivity for Poverty Reduction in Pakistan. Proceedings of the 2nd South Asia Water Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan, December 14-16, 2002. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Olso (CICERO): Developing Strategies for Climate Change: The UNEP Country Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessment, Report 2000:2, CICERO, Oslo, Norway. Climate.org: Pakistan Country Report (www.climate.org/pubs/climate_alert/articles/7.4/ pakistan.shtml), 2004. Engelman, R. and Leroy, P.: Sustaining Water: Population and Future for Renewable Water Supplies. Population and Environmental Program, Washington, D.C.: Population Action International, 1993. Government of Pakistan (GOP): Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1997-1998. Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Food, Agriculture 7 Livestock, Food, Agriculture & Livestock Division (Economic Wing), Islamabad, 1999. Government of Pakistan (GOP)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP): Pakistan Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment, UNEP, Nairobi, 1998. Halcrow, S. W.: Pakistan National Water Sector Profile. Report Submitted to Asian Development Bank Under Water Resources Strategy Study-ADB TA 3030 Pak, 2001. Hussain, M.: Water Conservation and Role of Youth. Proceedings of the 2nd South Asia Water Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan, December 14-16, 2002. Haider, G.; Prathapar, S. A.; Afzal, M. and Qureshi, A. S.: Water for Environment in Pakistan. Paper Presented in the Global Water Partnership Workshop Held on April 11, Islamabad, Pakistan, 1999. Haq, A. U.: Case Study of the Punjab Irrigation Department. Pakistan National Program, International Irrigation Management Institute, Lahore, Pakistan, Report No. C-12, 1998. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisSummary for Policy Makers and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, IPCC, Geneva, 2001. International Water Management Institute (IWMI): Water Issues for 2025, A Research Perspective. Research Contribution to the World Water Vision, Colombo, Sri Lanka, International Water Management Institute, 2000. Jurriens, R. and Mollinga, P. P.: Scarcity by Design: Protective Irrigation in India and Pakistan. ICID Journal 45(2) (1996), pp.31-45. Khan, S. R. and Iqbal, F. Y.: Pakistan. In: Confronting Climate Change: Economic Priorities and Climate Protection in Developing Nations (B. Biagini Editor), National Environmental Trust, Washington D.C., 2000, pp.63-92. Ministry of Environment, Local Government and Rural Development (MELGRD)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF): Study on Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Pakistan, 1998. Ministry of Environment (MOE): Pakistans Initial National Communication on Climate Change, MOE, Islamabad, 2003. Nazir, A.: Water Resources of Pakistan, Gulberg, Lahore, 1993. Nespak/MMI: Feasibility Study National Drainage Program I, Executive Summary, NESPAK and Mott MacDonald, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, 1993.
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Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP): Supplement to the Framework For Action (FFA) For Achieving the Pakistan Water Vision 2025, 2001. Qureshi, A. S.; Akhtar, M.; Masih, I. and Bilal, M.: Sustaining Ground Water Boom: Protecting Food Security and Small Holder Livelihooh in Punjab, Pakistan. Proceeding of the 2nd South Asia Water Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan, 2002. Qureshi, A. S. and Barret-Lennard, E. G.: Saline Agriculture for Irrigated Lands in Pakistan: A Handbook. ACIAR Monograph 50 (1998), p.142. Qureshi, A. S. and Mujeeb, A.: The Impact of Utilization Factor on the Estimation of Ground Water Pumpage, Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, PARC, Islamabad, Pakistan (in press), 2002. Qureshi, A. S. and Mujeeb, A.: Ground Water Economy of Pakistan. Paper Presented at the Workshop on Water, Livelihoods and Environment in India: Frontline Issues in Water and Land Management and Policy. Annual Partners Research Workshop-IWMI-Tata Water Policy Program, Institute of Rural Management Anand, Gujrat, INDIA, January 26-29, 2003. Sarwar, A.: A Transient Model Approach to Improve On-Farm Irrigation and Drainage in Semi-Arid Zones. Ph.D Dissertation, Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 2000, pp.147. Sarwar, A. and Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.: Long-Term Effects of Irrigation Water Conservation on Crop Production and Environment in Semi-Arid Areas. ASCE Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Vol. 127, No. 6:331-338, 2001. Tarar, R. N.: Drainage System in Indus Plains - An Overview. In: Proceedings of the National Workshop on Drainage System Performance in Indus Plains and Future Strategies, Tandojam, Pakistan, January 28-29, 1995, Vol. II, pp.1-45. Tarar, R. N.: Surface Water Scenarios in the 21st Century and Needed Actions. Proceedings of the International Symposium of Water for the 21st Century: Demand, Supply, Development and Socio-Environmental Issues. Center of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, UET, Lahore, Pakistan, June 17-19, 1997. United Nations (UN): World Population Prospect: 1998 Revision, New York: UN Department of Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development, 1999. Warsi, M.: Indus and Other River Basin of Pakistan, Stream Flow Records. Case Study Report, WAPDA, 1991. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA): Water Sector Investment Planning Study. Federal Planning Cell/Consultants, Lahore-Pakistan, 1999. Wigley, T. M. L. and Jones, P. D.: Influences of Precipitation Changes and Direct CO2 Effects on Stream Flow. Nature 314 (1985), pp.149-152. Wolter, W. and Bhutta, M. N.: Need for Integrated Irrigation and Drainage Management, Example of Pakistan. Proceedings of the ILRI Symposium. Towards Integrated Irrigation and Drainage Management, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 1997. Zuberi, F. A.: Integrated Surface and Ground Water Management Programme for Pakistan-Ground Water Resources, Interim Report, IWASRI, 1997.

Water Management in Pakistan

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8

Climate Change and Water Resources Management in Pakistan

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Fig. 8.1 Map of Pakistan.

AGRICULTURE AND RURAL ECONOMY

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

Area (mha) 8.4 2.1 2.6 0.9

Production (million tons) 18.7 3.9 9.7 35.0

Yield (tons/ha) 2.3 2.0 0.7 46.9

Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane

Farm Size (ha) <2.0 2-5 5-10 10-20 20-60 >60

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

Table 8.3 Inflows of the Indus and its tributaries (BCM)

Kharif 79.8 87.8 76.6 85.1 77.5 83.3 82.1

Diversion Rabi 45.4 47.8 45.4 50.3 48.8 44.0 46.7

Annual 125.1 135.6 121.9 135.4 126.3 127.3 128.8

Kharif 46.6 23.1 13.5 47.1 77.1 41.4 47.4

1975-1976 1980-1981 1985-1986 1990-1991 1995-1996 1997-1998 Average

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Table 8.4 Category-wise number of tube wells in Pakistan

Province Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Total

Electric Tube Wells 65,354 2,993 5,538 11,913 85,798

Total 566,446 28,079 11,077 22,277 627,879

Number of Tube Wells ('000)

Fig. 8.2 Historical development of tube wells in four provinces of Pakistan.

Fig. 8.3 Increase in tube well density in four provinces of Pakistan.

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Fig. 8.4 Ground water quality of the Indus basin.

RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

800 600 400

724 528 276 346

200 0 Bahawalpur D.I.Khan

SMALL-SCALE WATER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FLOODS

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MAJOR CHALLENGES LOSS OF STORAGE CAPACITY DUE TO SILTATION

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Table 8.5 Capacity loss of on-line storage reservoirs

Mangla Chashma Tarbela Total

19.3 16.2 15.7 14.4 13.1

1600 1400 m water person 1000 800 600 400

200 0 2013 2025

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Requirement 50 82 3.5 1.9 3.3 14.3 16.1 171

Production 31.5 46.4 2.7 1.4 1.5 9.0 9.0 102.8

Shortfall 18.5 35.4 0.8 0.5 1.8 5.3 7.1 69.4

WATER LOGGING AND SOIL SALINIZATION

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WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Before monsoon After monsoon

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Fig. 8.9 Historical trends of waterlogged area in Pakistan.

Copyright 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

212 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Area Affected (million ha) 0.7 1.9 1.1 2.3