QMS102 Some Discrete Probably Distribution Examples 1. An urn contains 6 red balls and 4 green balls .

If you randomly selected 3 balls from the urn, one at a time with replacement, what is the probability that at most one of the selected balls is green? 2. On a typical evening when you are studying for a QMS test your friends call you on your cell about every 10 minutes. Between 7 and 7:20 pm on the night before a QMS test, what is the probability that you will get at most one call from a friend? How are these questions the same? Different? Same: Since the sample space is not listed it must be numerical. Outcomes are the result of counting. The Sample space is an interval starting at 0. 1. 2. Outcome: Sample Space: Outcome: Sample Space: x= # of green balls in a sample of 3. 0x3 x= # of calls in 20 minutes. 0x<

1. The maximum outcome is limited by the number of repetitions of the binary process ie: picking a ball (with 2 colours). 2. The maximum outcome is theoretically unlimited since the frame of reference is a continuous frame of reference. ie: a period of time (area, volume, length, etc.)

QMS102 Some Discrete Probably Distribution Examples 1. An urn contains 6 red balls and 4 green balls . If you randomly selected 3 balls from the urn, one at a time with replacement, what is the probability that at most one of the selected balls is green?

x= # of green balls in a sample of 3. 0x3 If the probability of getting the counted result is fixed throughout the repetitions (selecting a ball) then distribution is binomial and outcome probabilities can be computed with the following formula.

= P(single occurrence of result being counted)={4/10=.4 for 1.}

n = # of repetitions. So P( x1)=P(0)+P(1)= =
3! . 40 (1 0!(30)!

( ) =

! (1 ) ! ( )!
.4)30 +
3! . 41 (1 1!(31)!

.216

.432

.4)31

= .648

Binomial Notes:
Before you can compute outcome probabilities the 2 parameters n and need to be known. Determining is always another probability question! E(x)==n ie: expected # of greens is 3(.4)=1.2 = (1 ) ie: standard deviation is 3(. 4)(. 6) = .849

QMS102 Some Discrete Probably Distribution Examples 1. An urn contains 6 red balls and 4 green balls . If you randomly selected 3 balls from the urn, one at a time with replacement, what is the probability that at most one of the selected balls is green?

x= # of green balls in a sample of 3. 0x3

= P(selecting a green ball)=.4

Fortunately our calculator can compute individual and cumulative probabilities (starting at 0). Since events are almost always intervals it will usually be easy to compute event probabilities. [Stat][Dist][Binm] bcd [Variable] x 1 n 3 binomial probabilities to compute and add all the probabilities from 0 to some x bcd to compute individual outcome probabilities. to enter values via a menu - event upper limit - number of repetitions ie 3 draws

.4

- probability of a single occurrence ie P(green)

Therefore P(x 1)=.648 Try 1.b. What is the probability of exactly 2 greens? 1.c. What is the probability of more than 1 red? 1.d. What is the probability of between 1 and 4 greens if 6 balls are drawn with replacement?

QMS102 Some Discrete Probably Distribution Examples 2. On a typical evening when you are studying for a QMS test your friends call you on your cell about every 10 minutes. Between 7 and 7:20 pm on the night before a QMS test, what is the probability that you will get at most one call from a friend?

x= # of calls in 20 minutes. 0x< If occurrences in the continuous frame of reference are random and independent with a fixed rate then the distribution is Poisson and outcome probabilities can be computed with the following formula. = expected number of occurrences in the given frame of reference { 20/10*1=2 per 20 minutes} So P( x1)=P(0)+P(1)= =

( ) =
1!

20 2 0!

21 2

.13533

.27067 = .4060

Poisson Notes:
Before you can compute outcome probabilities the parameter needs to be known. Sometimes the required needs to be computed from a given using the fact that rates are proportional. = ie: the standard deviation is 2 = 1.141

QMS102 Some Discrete Probably Distribution Examples 2. On a typical evening when you are studying for a QMS test your friends call you on your cell about every 10 minutes. Between 7 and 7:20 pm on the night before a QMS test, what is the probability that you will get at most one call from a friend?

x= # of calls in 20 minutes. 0x< Fortunately our calculator can compute individual and cumulative Poisson probabilities (starting at 0). Since events are almost always intervals it will usually be easy to compute event probabilities. [Stat][Dist][][Pois] pcd [Variable] x 1 2 Therefore P(x 1)=.4060 Try 2.b. What is the probability of exactly 2 calls in the 20 minute period? 2.c. What is the probability of more than 3 calls in the 20 minute period? 2.d. What is the probability of between 4 and 10 calls between 8 and 9pm? poisson probabilities to compute and add all the probabilities from 0 to some x ppd to compute individual outcome probabilities. to enter values via a menu - event upper limit - expected occurrences if the given frame ie 20/10*1=2calls every 20 min.