Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Singapore
Sector Update
8 December 2011
Property Sector
Brace for impact
OOI Yi Tung ooiyitung@kimeng.com (65) 6433 5712 New round of tightening. The government rolled out a fifth round of property cooling measures to keep a lid on investment demand from locals and foreigners. Effective today, an Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) will be imposed over and above the current Buyers Stamp Duty (approximately 3%) on selected transactions. Foreigners and non-individuals will pay a 10% ABSD on all residential property purchases, permanent residents will pay a 3% ABSD on second and subsequent residential property purchases, and Singapore citizens will pay an ABSD of 3% on third and subsequent residential property purchases. Moderated land supply. The government also released details on the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for 1H12. Fourteen sites are placed on the Confirmed List, and these are expected to yield 7,020 residential units, down from 8,115 residential units in 2H11. Of note is the supply in the Executive Condominium (EC) segment, which will be ramped up to 2,900 units, compared with 1,115 units in 2H11. The supply of private residential units, however, has been cut to 4,120 units, from 7,000 units in 2H11. Double whammy for mass market. Against the new backdrop, we expect mass market projects to see prices slip by at least 10-20% going into 2012. The full impact of the ramped-up supply under the GLS programme will be felt only next year. This is when a minimum of 16,000 residential units from the record-high land sales this year will be launched for sale. We also note that all 14 sites in the GLS 1H12 are found in the mass market districts, with 10 located next to existing launches. These sites are likely to attract lower bids because of the stiff competition to be expected in a segment where margins are already slim. Recent tender prices have implied pre-tax margins in the region of 15% and price cuts to drive sales is a probable strategy if the property market turns frosty. The latest round of cooling measures is also a demand dampener for this segment, even though the impact is unlikely to be very significant as up to 80% of the buyers are generally locals. That said, we observe that some projects such as euHabitat in Eunos, which offers a mix of housing types, has attracted higher foreigner interest. High-end segment to take longer to recover. About 40-80% of the units in the high-end segment are sold to foreigners. This means the 10% ABSD is applicable to a majority of transactions in this market. But we hold the view that developers will not cut prices, given the rising replacement cost of their inventories. The already sluggish sales in this foreigner-led segment will be further stifled and a pickup in the near term has been nipped in the bud by the rollout of the ABSD. However, we note that developers margins in the luxury segment are higher due to the low cost of land from the last en bloc cycle and inventories are largely freehold. In any case, a slowdown in sales has been anticipated.
Kim Eng Research is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad
Property Sector
Private 4,120 7,000 6,255 5,775 1,975 502 2,964 3,014 275
Hotel rooms 4,750 3,315 3,735 3,435 4,515 4,430 5,160 5,050 4,185 4,650 4,200
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Property Sector Table 4: Foreigner as a percentage of total buyers for selected projects
Project SC A Treasure Trove 384 Boathouse Residences 210 Canberra Residences 220 dLeedon 258 Eight Courtyards 320 EuHabitat 185 Foresque Residences 151 H2O Residences 264 Hedges Park Condominium 232 Nin Residence 114 NV Residences 440 Seastrand 196 Silversea 41 Spottiswoode 18 185 Spottiswoode Residences 243 Terrasse 230 The Cascadia 222 The Estuary 487 The Greenwich 228 The Interlace 219 The Lakefront Residences 438 The Laurels 74 The Luxurie 143 The Miltonia Residences 217 The Minton 574 The Scala 330 The Tennery 229 Thomson Grand 57 Tree House 332 Waterbank At Dakota 492 Waterfront Gold 210 Waterfront Isle 263 Waterview 452 Source: URAs 2010-2011 new sale data PR 29 19 29 41 76 45 16 21 21 8 71 31 48 17 21 17 40 53 9 61 71 22 12 22 49 35 13 15 38 49 32 57 53 Foreigner 15 15 15 78 29 140 17 15 14 13 66 37 120 12 21 13 42 24 4 91 35 65 20 16 71 34 43 27 17 35 59 100 21 Nonindividual 11 Total caveats 439 244 264 387 426 375 184 300 268 143 577 264 214 215 294 260 305 564 241 384 550 181 176 256 695 403 290 100 394 582 305 420 529 SC (%) 87% 86% 83% 67% 75% 49% 82% 88% 87% 80% 76% 74% 19% 86% 83% 88% 73% 86% 95% 57% 80% 41% 81% 85% 83% 82% 79% 57% 84% 85% 69% 63% 85% PR (%) 7% 8% 11% 11% 18% 12% 9% 7% 8% 6% 12% 12% 22% 8% 7% 7% 13% 9% 4% 16% 13% 12% 7% 9% 7% 9% 4% 15% 10% 8% 10% 14% 10% Foreigner (%) 3% 6% 6% 20% 7% 37% 9% 5% 5% 9% 11% 14% 56% 6% 7% 5% 14% 4% 2% 24% 6% 36% 11% 6% 10% 8% 15% 27% 4% 6% 19% 24% 4% Nonindividual (%) 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 11% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%
10 1 5
1 8
5 1 9 1
13 6 20 1 1 1 4 5 1 7 6 4 3
Table 5: Who will have to cut prices? Implied margins for GLS residential sites sold in 2011
Location Bishan Street 14 Bedok Reservoir Road Sengkang Square / Compassvale Road Choa Chu Kang Drive Bartley Road / Lorong How Sun Bendemeer Road / Whampoa East Tampines Central 7 Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Drive 4 Sembawang Road / Jalan Sendudok Buangkok Drive / Sengkang East Drive Woodlands Avenue 2 / Rosewood Drive Flora Drive West Coast Link / West Coast Crescent Choa Chu Kang Road / Phoenix Road Punggol Way / Punggol Field Upper Serangoon Road / Pheng Geck Avenue Sep-11 Punggol Field Walk Sep-11 Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road Oct-11 Jln Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise Oct-11 Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Rise (EC) Oct-11 Flora Drive Oct-11 Yishun Avenue 7 / Canberra Drive (EC) Nov-11 Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains Nov-11 Yishun Avenue 1 / Miltonia Close Nov-11 Chestnut Avenue Dec-11 Alexandra Road Source: URA, HDB, Kim Eng Tender close Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 May-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Type Residential Residential Residential EC Residential Residential EC Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential EC Residential Residential Residential Residential EC Residential EC Residential Residential Residential Residential Top bid $psf ppr 869.4 465.4 501.8 320.9 620.6 774.1 392.4 402.4 460.0 391.3 367.2 325.1 460.6 410.5 270.1 567.3 Developer CapitaLand UOL Keppel Land CDL CDL UE Sim Lian MCL Land Hao Yuan Qingdao Fragrance / Aspial Frasers Centrepoint Far East Far East + China Construction Frasers Centrepoint / Keong Hong Tuan Sing Breakeven $psf 1,322 825 864 612 997 1,163 689 753 816 742 715 669 819 763 557 989 667 634 709 580 707 581 680 711 834 1,196 Assumed Pre-tax ASP margins $psf % 1,500 12% 1,000 18% 1,000 14% 700 13% 1,200 17% 1,200 3% 700 2% 850 11% 850 4% 900 18% 850 16% 850 21% 1,000 18% 900 15% 700 20% 1,200 850 900 900 700 800 700 850 850 1,100 1,400 18% 22% 30% 21% 17% 12% 17% 20% 16% 24% 15%
323.0 Capital Development / ZACD 291.4 Allgreen 361.0 291.1 361.2 292.6 334.6 363.6 425.8 754.4 Hoi Hup + Sunway EVIA / UE / Ho Lee / GPS Koh Brothers MCC Land Qingjian TG Development SP Setia CDL / Hong Leong
8 December 2011
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Keppel Land
01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22
Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive)
CapitaLand
03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26
The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Bishan GLS site (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd)
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove)
UOL
02 16
Allgreen
02 05 09 12 12 19 21
Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) Upper Serangoon Road The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road)
Wheelock
09 10
Guocoland
02 10 26
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd)
Bukit Sembawang
09 09 09
The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk)
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Wing Tai
03 09 09 10 10 11 23
Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road)
MCL Land
10 15 17 19
NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Pasir Ris GLS site (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2)
SC Global
9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove)
Table 7: Valuations
Name CapitaLand CityDev Ho Bee HPL KepLand SC Global SingLand UOL Wheelock Wing Tai N.A. = No Coverage Price 2.43 9.22 1.135 1.78 2.44 1.095 5.85 4.04 1.585 1.005 *As at latest reported RNAV 3.92 13 2.69 4.39 5.08 4.74 9.82 N.A. N.A. 2.85 Disc/ Prem to RNAV -38% -29% -58% -59% -52% -77% -40% N.A. N.A. -65% NTA/share* 3.18 7.31 2.22 2.7 2.78 1.6 10.74 6.43 2.35 2.49 Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -24% 26% -49% -34% -12% -32% -46% -37% -33% -60%
8 December 2011
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Property Sector
ANALYSTSCOVERAGE/RESEARCHOFFICES
MALAYSIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com Strategy Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CHNG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com Banking - Regional LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com Oil & Gas Automotive Shipping ONG Chee Ting (603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com Plantations Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com Aviation Petrochem Power YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com Gaming Regional Media Power WONG Wei Sum (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com Building Materials Manufacturing Technology Farouq Azizul MAHMUD (603) 2297 8687 farouq@maybank-ib.com Automotive LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com Technicals
SINGAPORE
Stephanie WONG Head of Research (65) 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Strategy Small & Mid Caps Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com Conglomerates Technology & Manufacturing Telcos - Regional Rohan SUPPIAH (65) 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Airlines Marine & Offshore Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Hotel & Resort Property & Construction Anni KUM (65) 6432 1470 annikum@kimeng.com Conglomerates REITs James KOH (65) 6432 1431 jameskoh@kimeng.com Finance Logistics Resources Eric ONG (65) 6432 1857 ericong@kimeng.com Marine & Offshore Transportation Energy OOI Yi Tung (65) 6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com Property & Construction YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6433 5730 yeakcheekeong@kimeng.com Retail & Consumer Engineering Infrastructure Alison FOK (65) 6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com Services
PHILIPPINES
Luz LORENZO Head of Research +63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@atr.com.ph Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@atr.com.ph Consumer Media Cement Mining Kenneth NERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@atr.com.ph Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 kat_tan@atr.com.ph Banks Construction
VIETNAM
Michael Kokalari, CFA Head of Research (84) 838 38 66 36 x 116 michael.kokalari@kimeng.com.vn Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen (84) 838386636 x163 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn Conglomerates Confectionary and Beverage Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van (84) 838 38 66 36 x 171 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn Banking Insurance Nguyen Quang Duy (84) 838386636 x162 duy.nguyenquang@kimeng.com.vn Industrial Property Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 422 21 22 08 x 102 diep.trinh@kimeng.com.vn Property & Construction Power Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 838 38 66 36 x 164 thoa.dang@kimeng.com.vn Consumer Services
INDONESIA
Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id Consumer Strategy Telcos Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 rmarina@kimeng.co.id Banking Multifinance Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 lariesandi@kimeng.co.id Base metals Coal Heavy Equipment Oil & gas Adi N. WICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Generalist Arwani PRANADJAYA (62) 21 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id Technicals
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist (603) 2297 8682 suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com Luz LORENZO Economist (63) 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph Philippines Indonesia
REGIONAL
ONG Seng Yeow (65) 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com Regional Products & Planning
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 jigar@kimeng.co.in Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 anubhav@kimeng.co.in Metal & Mining Capital goods Property Haripreet BATRA (91) 226623 2606 haripreet@kimeng.co.in Software Media Ganesh RAM (91) 226623 2607 ganeshram@kimeng.co.in Telecom Contractor
THAILAND
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN Head of Research (66)-2658-6300 ext 1440 mayuree.c@kimeng.co.th Strategy Suttatip PEERASUB (66)-2658-6300 ext 1430 suttatip.p@kimeng.co.th Media Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66)-2658-6300 ext 1400 sutthichai.k@kimeng.co.th Energy Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66)-2658-6300 ext 1520 termporn.t@kimeng.co.th Property Woraphon WIROONSRI (66)-2658-6300 ext 1560 woraphon.w@kimeng.co.th Bank Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66)-2658-6300 ext 1404 jaroonpan.w@kimeng.co.th Transportation Small cap.
8 December 2011
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Property Sector
APPENDIX 1
Definition of Ratings
Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system: BUY HOLD SELL Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months Total return is expected to be between -5% to 10% in the next 12 months Total return is expected to be below -5% in the next 12 months
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
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Property Sector
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Malaysia
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APPENDIX I
Additional information on mentioned securities is available on request. Jurisdiction Specific Additional Disclaimers: THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA, OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY KOREAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO MALAYSIA OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY MALAYSIAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN MALAYSIA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Singapore. As of 8 December 2011, Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. and the covering analyst do not have any interest in the companies. Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. 2011 Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
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