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Table of Contents
Section I Section II Section III Sections IV Industry Overview Emerging Trends Industry Breakdown Transactions and Comps
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Mobile platforms are creating opportunities for advertisers to reach customers as they make purchasing decisions in real-time
With mobile internet, customers are never really offline Enabling online advertising to have a greater impact on purchases made in-store
U.S. online ad revenue grew 14.6% to $26.0bn in 2010 over 2009, and is expected to grow at a 13.7% CAGR to reach $49.5bn by 2015
Mobile, video and social advertising are new mediums that are driving industry growth
Summer 2011 Online Advertising Landscape
$9,940
$10,765
$11,815
$12,852
$13,961
2013E
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Source: IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report Full Year 2010 Results, Q1 11 Internet Advertising Revenue Results press release
$50.0
$49.5 CAGR 13.7% $41.2 $45.5 $4.7 $5.6 $4.0 $4.3 $4.9 $7.1
$40.0 $31.3 $30.0 $26.0 $3.8 $1.4 $2.6 $6.2 $10.0 $12.0 $0.0 2010a 2011e Search Banner Ads $14.4 $4.1 $2.2 $3.0 $7.6
$11.0
$11.7
$20.0
$8.9
$17.0
$18.9
$20.2
$21.5
2012e
2014e
2015e
45% 40% 35% 31% 30% 26% 25% 20% 16% 15% 10% 5% 0% Print
Source: Charles Stanley research report Digital Media: The Future is Now (2011)
There is an opportunity to draw ad spend away from shrinking mediums like broadcast TV and print media
39%
28%
12% 9%
3%
TV
Online
Demand Side Mobile Platforms ("DSP"s) Source: ValueClick Media 2011 Advertiser Survey
10
Web 1.0
1990-2000
Websites Keyword Search Directory Portals Lightweight Collaboration SaaS
Web 2.0
2004-2007
Weblogs Office 2.0 Social Media Sharing
Web 2.5
2007-2010
Social Mobile Widgets Networking Applications Semantic Search Semantic Databases
Web 3.0
2010 - ?
Distributed Search Intelligent Personal Agents
Publishing First basic version of the web featuring static HTML only websites Email Text only email
MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service) Allows users to send multimedia content to and from mobile phones Collaboration Shift from flat push publishing web to creativity, secure information sharing and collaboration (social networks, blogs, wikis, etc.) Content Ownership Users own the information SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) Broadband penetration allows for software programs run entirely online but with minimal crosssoftware integration Open-source Software A production and development philosophy promoting open access and review of the final product
Personalization Connection of siloed information to create more personal environments Mobile Applications Digital distribution of rich media and gaming applications Rich Mobile Platforms Widespread adoption of smartphones capable of accessing rich media content on mobile devices Social Media Sharing Robust network of users sharing media across the globe PaaS (Platforms as a Service) AJAX, lower bandwidth and server costs drive emergence of integrated web software suites (GoogleApps, Amazon, salesforce, Microsoft)
Intelligent Web Recommendations automatically develop based upon a users web habits Ubiquitous Connectivity Increased connectivity through widespread broadband adoption, mobile Internet access and mobile devices Open Identity Ability to seamlessly use one screen name to access the entire web Semantic Web Ability of the internet to understand and respond with relevant response Ubiquitous Collaboration Widespread and highly viral creative content collaboration virtuous circle between brands, celebrities and consumers
E-Commerce The start of online shopping Flat Content Early digitization and online availability of news, books, music and other media Siloed Services Early webenabled services such as search agents/shopping agents SMS (Short Message Service) Exchange of short text messages between mobile devices, although it is limited to 160 characters Smartphone Launched in 1993
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Source: LUMAscape
12
Source: LUMAscape
13
Source: LUMAscape
14
Source: LUMAscape
15
Source: LUMAscape
16
Source: LUMAscape
17
Source: LUMAscape
18
Sector
Performance Advertising Large Display Ad Networks Major Agencies Vertical Networks Web Delivery Targeting Platforms Consumer Data Marketing Analytics
Companies
Growth Opportunities
Apply ROI discipline Differentiate with tool and analytics providers Build baseline functionality Continue aggregation of large likeminded audiences Use advertising as an application Leverage increasingly sophisticated technology to better target customers Expand from customer data to customer acquisition Apply rich user data
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Horizontal ad networks reach broad audiences, which can be appropriate for branding campaigns
47.0% of advertisers report reach as one of the most important factors when choosing a media partner
Horizontal networks leverage audience data to provide basic targeting across a broad array of properties
IDG Tech Network specializes in publishers that target business readers in the technology community
Information Technology Small Business Prosumers
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Differentiating Ad Networks
Audience data is now considered more valuable than inventory quality in online media buying decision making Targeting methods that leverage audience data have grown in importance while contextual targeting is declining Advertisers and agencies need greater audience insights, analytics and optimization services
What Metric do You Use to Evaluate Ad Network Performance?
CTR CPC CPA Ability to Drive Brand Awareness Interaction Rate Ability to Drive Brand Favorability 25% 35% 33% 48% 64% 61%
What Are the Most Important Factors When Choosing a Media Partner?
Performance/ROI Audience Targeting Price Transparency Optimization Reach Products Proprietary Data Sets Unique Content 20% 19% 17% 47% 55% 55% 67% 67% 84%
Source: Collective 2010 Display Advertising Study, ValueClick Media 2011 Advertiser Survey
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EMERGING TRENDS
As this shift in market focus continues to materialize, two distinct sets of companies will continue to grow in importance to both agencies and publishers
Ad Exchanges/DSPs Distributors of valuable information for enhanced advertising Data Source Companies Aggregators of information and consumer feedback
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$6,000
$5,640
10.0%
$4,000
$3,090
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
$0 2010a 2011e 2012e Annual Amount ($mm) 2013e % of Total U.S. Online Ad Spending 2014e 2015e
0.0%
24
European and U.S. online video marketing spending is expected to reach approximately $3.0bn each by 2012, representing a CAGR of 78.0% and 50.0%, respectively Online video ads decisively outperform television ads across key verticals and on-critical metrics, such as general recall, brand recall, message recall and likeability
Global Online Video Advertising Spend
$3,500 $3,000 $3,300 $2,800 $3,000
Online Video Ads Outperform TV Ads on All Key Brand Impact Metrics
70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0%
$590
$2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $Asia 2008a Europe 2012e U.S. $300 $280
46.0%
20.0% 10.0% 0.0% General Recall Brand Recall Online Video Message Recall TV
Likeability
Source: eMarketer, ComScore Video Metrix and Nielsen IAG Cited in ARF 2010 speech Variations in Video Advertising Impact March 2010, Break Media 2011 Video Advertising Study
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What Are the Most Important Factors to Consider When Using an Ad Exchange?
55.0% 52.0% 46.0% 44.0% 41.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Targeting
Price
Optimization
Analytics
Reach
No Yes
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RTB introduces a new participant into the advertising value chain, the demand-side platform
DSPs instantaneously place bids on impressions to maximize ROI 2011 Expected U.S. Display Media Spending ($mm)
5.7%
$592.0
7.9%
86.4%
$823.0
2011e
RTB
Other
Source: A commissioned study by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Admeld, Q4 2010, as cited by a February 2011 study published by WARC
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75.0% of respondents in a 2011 IAB survey reported that buying and selling ads in social media and mobile platforms is important Advanced smartphones with sophisticated graphics enable rich media advertising on mobile platforms Mobile video is emerging as an important element of mobile Internet use
In addition to YouTube, applications for ESPN, Netflix, Hulu and HBO are now available on Android and iOS devices Mobile video use is forecasted to grow at a 131.0% CAGR from 2009 to 2014 Mobile video will reach 66.0% of mobile Internet traffic by 2015
Advertising revenues follow audiences, and Internet users are increasingly migrating to mobile platforms
By 2014, half of U.S. web browsing will be done on mobile devices
28
800
$3.1bn
750
700
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 7.5 Foursquare 39 Yelp LinkedIn Twitter Facebook 100 200
$1.3bn
Source: IDC U.S. Consumer Online Behavior Survey results, Yelp Weblog, BBC News Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey re-joins company, Business Insider Foursquare users doubled and www.linkedin.com
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Social game advertising reaches the enormous Facebook audience of more than 700.0mm
The average American spends more time on Facebook than Google, Amazon, Yahoo and YouTube combined Social Gaming vs. Primetime TV: Weekly Audience (7/17/11-7/23/11)
(Millions of Weekly Viewers/Active Users)
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
38.1
18.3 17.7
14.1 8.9 8.7 8.2 8.1 7.5 7.4 7.3 6.8 6.6 6.5
(Millions of Users)
2011e
Social Gaming
Primetime TV
30
(% of Internet Users)
25.0%
VC Investment Targets by Internet Advertising Sub-Sector Location-targeted advertising solutions Technologies that exploit the mobile-social connection Rich media advertising for mobile devices Monetization technologies that go beyond the preroll ad Video ad networks with access to premium content Video yield management technology Interactive video advertising Social media customer targeting Platforms optimized to exploit rich audience information from social networks Social application monetization Social listening market research Real-time bidding platforms Ad exchanges that enable access to broader audiences Demand-side platforms that optimize return on investment for advertisers Data management to enable targeted advertising Targeted ad networks that provide audience data Ad networks that reach the rapidly growing Chinese market Geographically-targeted ad networks
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INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN
Infrastructure
Social Tools Ad Ops/Other Infrastructure Ad Servers Content Delivery Networks
33
Sell Side
Ad Exchange
Publisher
Media Agency
Ad Network
34
Media Agency
To Ad Exchange(s) or Ad Network(s)
35
Ad Exchange(s)
Ad Network(s) Ad Network(s)
Other Infrastructure
36
To/From Ad Network/Exchange
Publisher(s)
37
Ad Networks (Inefficient)
Advertiser
Publisher
Ad Exchanges (Efficient)
Ad Network1 Ad Network4
Ad Network3 Ad Network6
38
Business Description
Ad Network Lead Generation Mobile Ad Targeting Social Ad Solutions Ad Network Social Gaming Advertising Mobile Ad Platform Mobile Ad Network Vertical Ad Network Social Advertising Search Advertising Video Advertising Marketing Agency Social Advertising Ad Network Video Advertising Social Advertising Classifieds Demand Side Platform Mobile Ad Network Marketing Agency Video Ad Network Targeted Advertising
Round ($mm)
$10.0 10.0 1.6 4.2 0.6 30.0 25.0 7.0 7.0 7.8 2.1 27.0 15.1 20.0 34.0 30.0 4.4 0.0 1.5 1.0 2.0 10.0 16.4
(1)
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Target
JumpTap RadiumOne AdTriad Mediazest Simplifi Holdings YoYi Media (Beijing) Interactive Advertising GraphEffect Adknowledge Strike New Media Millenial Media The Worldwide Exchange Digital Advertising Consortium Beijing Phorm Image Space Media SpotXchange Integrate Media6Degrees mInfo JumpTap Turn plista YuMe Avito.ru
Business Description
Mobile Advertising Social Ad Network Ad Network Marketing Agency Demand Side Platform Targeted Ad Network Social Advertising Performance Ad Network Online Advertising Mobile Ad Network Classifieds Marketing Agency Targeted Ad Network Ad Network Video Ad Network Lead Generation Social Advertising Search Advertising Mobile Advertising Data Management Platform Video Ad Network Video Ad Network Classifieds
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
41
Target
Rubicon Project Individual Digital PlaceIQ AdChina Netshelter Technology Media Adstruc Tro Media OPMS Polygone International Rent Marketer Adsit Media Oggifinogi Beijing Herun Detang Media and Advertising Netsertive Adstruc Outdoor Advertising Storage & Integrated Systems eXelate Media AdChina Phorm Tremor Media TechMediaNetwork Giant Realm Technorati Federated Media Publishing, Inc.
Business Description
Supply Side Platform Demand Side Platform Mobile Advertising Ad Network Vertical Ad Network Classifieds Ad Exchange Demand Side Platform Marketing Agency Classifieds Video Ad Network Video Ad Network Vertical Ad Network Demand Side Platform Classifieds Ad Network Data Management Platform Ad Network Targeted Advertising Video Ad Network Ad-Supported Content Ad Server Ad Exchange Media Agency
Mean Median
(1)
(1)
(1)
42
43
44
Online Advertising 1000mercis ad pepper media International N.V. Blinkx plc DG FastChannel, Inc. Hi-Media S.A. interCLICK, Inc. Local.com Corp. Marchex, Inc. ReachLocal, Inc. Sedo Holding AG TradeDoubler AB ValueClick, Inc. Velti Plc Weborama
Ticker ALMIL APM BLNX DGIT HIM ICLK LOCM MCHX RLOC LKI TRAD VCLK VELT ALWEB
Share Price $52.49 1.95 1.85 22.18 5.17 5.74 2.68 10.05 14.93 4.04 4.26 15.45 9.72 21.11 Mean Median
Market Cap $163.2 41.4 653.4 608.7 228.6 141.9 59.0 370.9 436.5 123.1 182.0 1,222.8 598.3 72.1
Enterprise Value (EV) $132.8 28.1 599.8 549.5 279.0 135.2 45.5 342.6 342.8 92.5 148.3 1,080.3 460.9 68.9 $307.6 $213.6
EV / FYE Revenue EBITDA 2.7x 0.4x 8.9x 2.2x 0.9x 1.3x 0.5x 3.5x 1.2x 0.6x 0.3x 2.5x 4.0x 2.9x 2.3x 1.8x 7.0x 18.4x 69.2x 4.9x 10.4x 14.7x 4.5x NM NM 8.0x 9.0x 9.0x 24.1x 15.8x 16.2x 9.7x
EV / LTM Revenue EBITDA 2.7x 0.4x 8.9x 2.0x 0.9x 1.1x 0.6x 2.9x 1.0x 0.5x 0.3x 2.3x 3.2x 2.9x 2.1x 1.6x 7.0x NM 69.2x 4.6x 10.4x 12.5x 63.3x 171.1x NM 8.0x 7.2x 7.9x 64.6x 15.8x 36.8x 11.4x
EV / NFY Revenue EBITDA NA NA NA 1.7x NA 1.0x 0.6x 2.3x 0.9x NA NA 2.0x 2.6x NA 1.6x 1.7x NA NA NA 3.9x NA 7.2x 3.8x 14.7x 25.6x NA NA 6.7x 8.5x NA 10.1x 7.2x
LTM Annual Revenue Growth NM 8.9% 96.4% 24.1% 28.9% 64.0% 2.4% 31.9% 35.8% 2.6% 3.8% 16.1% 24.5% 41.5% 29.3% 24.5%
Direct Marketing/Lead Gen Harte-Hanks Inc. InsWeb Corp. (1) LoopNet, Inc. Market Leader, Inc. Moneysupermarket.com Group PLC Move, Inc. QuinStreet, Inc. Rainmaker Systems Inc. Tree.Com, Inc. XO Group Inc. zipRealty Inc.
Ticker Symbol HHS INSW LOOP LEDR MONY MOVE QNST RMKR TREE XOXO ZIPR
Share Price $8.10 6.21 17.49 2.25 1.77 1.75 12.36 1.05 5.31 8.82 2.15 Mean Median
Market Cap $508.6 35.6 713.9 56.9 902.9 280.3 587.8 26.1 58.6 267.5 44.1
Enterprise Value (EV) $626.2 29.5 605.8 20.0 850.5 239.0 526.7 18.8 24.3 172.8 20.1 $284.9 $172.8
EV / FYE Revenue EBITDA 0.7x 0.7x 7.8x 0.8x 3.5x 1.2x 1.3x 0.4x 0.1x 1.5x 0.2x 1.7x 0.8x 5.5x 11.7x 27.4x NM 12.9x 19.2x 6.9x NM 3.3x 15.0x NM 12.7x 12.3x
EV / LTM Revenue EBITDA 0.7x 0.6x 7.4x 0.7x 3.1x 1.2x 1.3x 0.5x 0.1x 1.5x 0.2x 1.6x 0.7x 5.8x 12.0x 29.7x NM 10.7x 17.6x 6.9x NM NM 13.2x NM 13.7x 12.0x
EV / NFY Revenue EBITDA 0.7x NM 7.0x 0.6x NA 1.2x 1.1x 0.5x NM 1.4x 0.2x 1.6x 0.9x 6.2x NM 22.2x 0.0x NA 9.6x 5.6x NM NM 11.4x NM 9.2x 7.9x
LTM Annual Revenue Growth 3.8% 37.7% 9.1% 23.0% 20.8% -1.8% 20.4% -24.1% 31.8% 5.2% -25.6% 9.1% 9.1%
(1) LoopNet is being acquired by CoStar Group, but the deal has yet to close Source: Industry estimates, Capital IQ and S&A proprietary research
45
Internet Media/Marketing AOL, Inc. Baidu, Inc. Demand Media, Inc. Google Inc. IAC/InterActiveCorp. Microsoft Corporation Naspers Ltd. NetEase.com, Inc. Sina Corp. Sohu.com Inc. Tencent Holdings Ltd. Tomorrow Focus AG WebMD Health Corp. Yahoo Japan Corporation Yahoo! Inc.
Ticker AOL BIDU DMD GOOG IACI MSFT NPN NTES SINA SOHU 700 TFA WBMD 4689 YHOO
Share Price $15.31 148.35 8.89 540.70 39.29 26.23 50.11 49.04 105.34 81.55 23.31 5.14 35.29 320.67 13.84 Mean Median
Market Cap $1,637.7 51,765.1 746.1 174,585.4 3,338.2 219,761.9 18,813.4 6,402.8 6,938.4 3,123.9 42,479.3 272.4 2,070.6 18,598.2 17,474.6
Enterprise Value (EV) $1,298.9 50,218.0 642.5 141,604.4 2,578.7 181,528.9 20,130.0 4,659.8 6,116.4 2,584.1 40,506.2 287.8 1,722.0 16,195.6 15,001.0 $32,338.3 $6,116.4
EV / FYE Revenue EBITDA 0.5x 41.8x 2.5x 4.8x 1.6x 2.6x 4.3x 5.6x 15.2x 4.2x 13.6x 1.5x 3.2x 4.2x 2.4x 7.2x 4.2x 1.8x 75.6x 12.6x 12.0x 18.0x 6.0x 13.6x 11.1x 48.6x 10.1x 25.6x 16.1x 13.1x 7.3x 8.3x 18.7x 12.6x
EV / LTM Revenue EBITDA 0.6x 30.8x 2.2x 4.2x 1.4x 2.6x 4.3x 4.8x 14.0x 3.6x 11.0x 1.4x 3.0x 4.2x 2.7x 6.1x 3.6x 2.8x 54.3x 10.5x 11.1x 12.2x 6.0x 13.6x 9.7x 64.3x 8.8x 21.8x 13.9x 11.4x 7.3x 8.2x 17.1x 11.1x
EV / NFY Revenue EBITDA 0.6x 23.3x 2.0x 3.8x 1.3x 2.4x NA 4.3x 12.9x 3.1x NA NA 2.9x NA 3.4x 5.5x 3.1x 3.8x 40.3x 7.6x 9.0x 7.3x 5.6x NA 8.7x 102.1x 8.2x NA NA 8.6x NA 10.5x 19.2x 8.6x
LTM Annual Revenue Growth -21.1% 83.7% 34.7% 27.1% 25.1% 11.9% 18.2% 36.5% 15.4% 29.6% 49.4% 22.8% 20.1% 3.9% -14.4% 22.9% 22.8%
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Subsector Relative Performance as of 8/30/2011 Direct Marketing/ Internet Media/ S&P 500 Dow Jones NASDAQ Composite Lead Gen Index Marketing Index Index Industrial Average Index -5.7% 0.2% -9.8% -8.0% -9.1% -12.9% -5.4% -8.6% -5.5% -7.4% 19.7% 19.0% 15.6% 15.5% 21.5%
60.0%
50.0%
% Relative Performance
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0% Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Online Advertising Index
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Source: Capital IQ
47
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