11th

October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

432000 272
lcs5678@163.com

Introduction to Grey Extension

LI Chun-Sheng
Xiaogan University,Crop Disease Monitoring and Safe Control Laboratory of Hubei Province
Mailing address: No 272, Jiaotong Xilu, Xiaogan, Hubei Province, China.
Postcode: 432000, lcs5678@163.com

Abstract
The crops production system which was consisted by the crop variety, the ecological
environment and the cultivation measure was the main research object, the research proposed the
agricultural extension Grey system. By the way of contrasting the crop variety field plot experiment
and the big area which as demonstration, utilized statistics investigation research techniques, utilizing
Grey system theory, the research proposed the agricultural extension Grey system analysis method, has
established the agricultural extension Grey system connection, the decision-making, the forecast and
the control model, promoted the agricultural extension quantitative, the simulation, the optimization
and the scientific style.

Key word: Grey system; Agricultural extension; Grey Extension; Introduction

1.1

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October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

1.3
1.3.1

1982

1.2

1.3.2

GM

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October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

1.4

1.3.3

1.3.4

2.1

2.1.1

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October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

2.2

2.1.2

2.2.1

xik

2.2.3

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October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

S S=ab

3.2

()

()()

3.2.1 ()

3.1

()

GM

()xik

0.9581

0.9427 0.6151

x0k

11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
()xik

0.9113 0.9024

1 1

0.5996

1.0000

2 1
0.6273

1 1

3.2.2 ()

1.0000
2 1
0.9705
3 1

a1

0.4752

a2

,()

b1
b2
b3
,
S11(a1b1)(,)
S21(a2b1)(,)
S12(a1b2)(,)
S22(a2b2)(,)
S13(a1b3)(,)
S23(a2b3)(,)
,

S11(
)
S21(
)

5
,

S11(a1b1)(
)
S12(a1b2)(

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.0667

0.0667

0.0667

S13(a1b3)(
)

1.0000

0.9705

0.4752

0.6273

0.6195

0.2801

:
S11(

11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

x(1)(t+1)=314265.3603e0.0065t-312046.8703
C=0.26670.35P=10.95,
GOOD

2006-2010 2117.60, 2131.42,

2145.32, 2159.31, 2173.40
4.2.2

)
S21(
)

4.1

(Grey System Theory) GM(mn)

[31]
,
,

,
C0.35 P0.95
(GOOD),

x(0)

GM(1,1)

d x1(1) / dt + a x1(1) = b2 x (21) +b3x(31) +

4.2.3

+ b N x (N1)

(x0)

a b
GM(1,N) N 1

GM1,1

x (0) = (x ((01)) , x ((02)) , , x((n0)) )

dx(1)/dt+ax(1)=u[a
u]T a u

x(1)(t+1)=x(0)(1)-u/ae-at+u/a
x(0)(t+1)=x(1)(t+1)-x(1)(t)
4.2
4.2.1

6
GM1,1
dx/dt-0.0065x=2028.7924

(x1)(x2)
(x3)(x4)(x5)

84.7% 69.9%
23.11% 40mm

x0(k)
xi(k)
R

11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

84.7 69.9 23.11 40

x0(k)
xi(k)

81.0 66.0 18.00 80

79.0 64.0 19.00 70

77.0 62.0 20.00 60

5.3
5.3.1

0.6489

0.7038

0.7785

R=

0.7785
0.7038
0.6489

,,,
,,

5.1
(Control)
,
,

,
,
,:
,

,
,,
,
,
,
,

5.3.2

0.9527, 1
0.7188,
2

5.2

0.6909, 3

0.6451, 4
0.6381, 5

11th
October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.
,

5.3.3

GM(1,1), GM(1,1)

, GM(1,N)

, GM

x1=x2x3=x2u1u2u3

0.8594 1

0.8453 2

0.6692 3

0.5821 4

x1(x2 )

(x3)(u1)

u2u3

u4u5

5.4

GM(1,N)
GM(1,N)
5.6

GM(1,N)

-(Runge-Kutte)

(xi) x1 x2

x3

(x1)

u1,u2,u3,u4,u5 ,

(x2)(x3)

,,,

x1=(x2)
(x3)(ui), u1

(
),u2 ,u3 ,u4

(
),u5 ()

5.5

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October 28, 2006. Hsinchu, Taiwan.

5.
6.
7.
8.

9.

10.

11.

1.
2.
3.
4.

( 79 )

( 77 )

( 94 )

( 76 )

( 89 )

( 81 ):

:
( 82 )
:
( 74 )(
)
( 85 )
:
( 75 )
:

( 80 )
:

12.

13.
14.

( 85 )
:

( 89 )

( 89 )