The Golden Group

2011
The Golden Leaflet

Equity Commodity Currency Weekly Updates Column of the Week Column Of The Week
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SPEED MARKET WATCH

EQUITY
INDICES 02/12/2011
(Friday)

09/12/2011
(Friday)

Net Change ( %)

SENSEX NIFTY BANKNI FTY CNX IT

16846.83 5050.15 9172.75 6122.90

16213.46 -633.37(3.90%) 4866.70 -183.45(3.76%) 8811.10 -361.65(4.10%) 6135.25 12.35(0.20%)

COMMODITY
COMMODITY UNI T 02/12/20 09/12/201 11 1 (Friday) (Friday) 29181.00 57159.00 408.10 5148.00 Net Change ( %)

GOLD (Feb 2011) SILVER (Mar 2011) COPPER (Feb 2011) CRUDE OIL (Dec, 2011)

10 g 1 kg. 1 kg. 1 BBL

29153.00 -28.00(1.09%) 56647.00 -512.00(0.90%) 412.30 4.20(1.01%) 5139.00 -9.00(-0.17%)

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AGRI PRODUCTS

COMMODITY

UNIT

02/12/20 09/12/20 11 11
(Friday) (Friday)

Net Change (%)

Ref Soya Oil (Dec, 2011) Chana (Dec, 2011) Guarseed(Dec, 2011) Mentha Oil(Dec, 2011)

10 kgs 1 qt. 1 qt. 1 kg.

642.00 3153.00 5245.00 1324.70

642.00 0.00(0.00%) 3248.00 95.00(2.92%) 5564.00 319.00(5.73 %) 1308.40 -16.30(1.24%)

CURRENCY
CURRENCY 02/12/2011 (Friday) USD/INR EURO/INR EURO/USD Dollar Index 51.0750 68.4100 1.3392 78.7500 09/12/2011 (Friday) Net Change (%)

51.9150 0.8400(1.61% ) 69.4500 1.0400(1.49% ) 1.3386 -0.0006(0.04%) 78.6300 -0.1200(0.15%)

Weekly Updates
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Sensex sheds 274 points; cues from West to set market tone The Indian markets ended this week on a fragile note ahead of the action-packed events lined-up for the upcoming week. Sensex gave up most of its gains it recorded last week. The Sensex shut shop at 16213.46 down 274.78 points or 1.67% at 16213.4 and the Nifty closed at 4866.70 down 76.95 points or 1.56%. About 1131 shares advanced, 1811 shares declined, and 797 shares remain unchanged. Nifty opened well below 4900 mark and persisted to trade sluggishly for most part of the trading session. Asian markets too ended on a weak note. The EU summit failed to secure the full backing of the 27 nations for treaty changes to help fight euro-zone debt crisis.

Chinese companies to bid for India infrastructure projects: Wang The Indian governments plan to invest one trillion dollars on infrastructure projects offers excellent opportunity for Chinese companies to participate. As India plans to invest over one trillion dollars on infrastructure projects in the next five years, Chinese companies are gearing up to participate in the process. Wang Xuefeng, Minister at the Embassy of China in India, said the country has several competitive advantages in manufacturing and infrastructure construction. The Indian governments plan to invest one trillion dollars on infrastructure projects offers excellent opportunity for Chinese companies to participate.He was addressing delegates at a roundtable conference titled India China Economic Cooperation: Win Win Situation organized by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India. Wang brushed aside fears of hike in tariff and non-tariff barriers on imports of some Chinese goods by India or a complete ban on specific items like power and telecom equipment. China has already raced past the United States, Britain and Japan to become Indias largest trading partner. Trade between the worlds most populous nations with 2.5 billion people jumped 20-fold from 2.9 billion dollars in 2000 to more than 60 billion dollars in 2010. It is likely to cross 70 billion dollars this year and reach 100 billion dollars in the next four years Indian exports to China jumped 68.8% to 19.6 billion dollars in 2010-11 from 11.6 billion dollars in the previous year. The imports also increased 41 per cent to 43.5 billion dollars from 30.8 billion dollars in the same period. Most Indian exports to China comprise of metals, ores, iron and steel besides cotton while imports are of electrical machinery and equipment, nuclear reactors and boilers, organic chemicals, fertilisers, iron and steel.

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US stocks soar on consumer sentiment; Dow Jones up 1.55 percent U.S. stock markets rallied on Friday as investors rushed to equities buoyed by firming consumer sentiment numbers at home and by European progress in tackling the debt crisis across the Atlantic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday up 1.55 percent or 186.56 at 12184.26, the S&P 500 index roared ahead 1.69 percent or 20.84 at 1255.19, while the Nasdaq Composite index was up 1.94 percent or 50.47 at 2646.85. In Europe, 26 of the 27 treaty nations agreed to tighter fiscal integration and discipline measures, with Britain acting as the holdout on grounds it did not get enough concessions and safeguards in exchange for subjecting its financial markets to possible higher taxes. Hopes for an end to the European debt crisis buoyed stock indices in Europe as well. France's CAC 40 rose 2.48 percent, Germany's DAX shot up 1.91 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.83 percent. Next week, the Federal Reserve will hold its Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where monetary policy authorities will discuss what to do with benchmark interest rates, which are down at very low 0.25 percent rates and holding.

EU accepts limited fiscal union...UK stays out An agreement involving all 27 EU members fell through after British Prime Minister David Cameron reportedly demanded concessions that Germany and France were not willing to give.

The European Union (EU) leaders have agreed on new rules for budget discipline among its member nations but failed to reach a consensus on treaty changes on reported resistance

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from few others like the UK. The dollar index rose marginally while the euro surrendered intraday gains. Any deal may now just involve the 17 nations that share the euro, plus others who may want to join, the reports said. An agreement involving all 27 EU members fell through after British Prime Minister David Cameron reportedly demanded concessions that Germany and France were not willing to give.

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COLUMN OF THE WEEK

Govt cuts growth forecast, warns on balance of trade, deficit target

India slashed its full-year growth forecast on Friday amid slowing domestic and global demand, with officials warning the government was facing a serious balance of trade problem and will have a tough time meeting its fiscal deficit target. Asia's third-largest economy is now expected to grow by 7.25 to 7.5 percent in the fiscal year ending next March, the government said in a mid-year review, down sharply from an estimate of 9 percent issued in February. The slowing economy has put government finances under further stress, fueling a recent sell-off in the rupee. While tax receipts so far have lagged the budgeted estimates, expenditures are climbing at a faster clip. "There can be no denial that meeting the target (of fiscal deficit) will not be easy this year," the finance ministry said in its review, without giving a revised forecast. Separately, the trade deficit for the fiscal year ending March 2012 is expected to sharply widen to $155$160 billion from $104.4 billion a year ago, posing further downside risks to the weak Indian currency. Slowing demand for Indian merchandise in overseas market is also making the government uncertain about achieving its annual export target of $300 billion. "There is clear evidence of a deceleration in exports growth," said Rahul Khullar, trade secretary, after releasing the provisional trade data for November "There is a serious balance of trade problem." Net tax revenues have grown at just 7.3 percent year on year in the first seven months of 2011/12, while expenditure has jumped by about an annual 10 percent. Adding to the gloomy outlook, the government said raising a budgeted 400 billion rupees via stake sales in state-run companies in choppy market conditions would be hard to achieve. "There can be no denial that meeting the target (of fiscal deficit) will not be easy this year," the finance ministry said in its review, without giving a revised forecast. With less than four months of 2011/12 still remaining, economists say the full-year fiscal gap may be almost one percentage point higher than the budgeted target of 4.6 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit has already reached nearly 74 percent of the full-year target. Any slippage on the fiscal front is expected to force the cash-strapped government to borrow more from the market. It has already unveiled 528 billion rupees of extra borrowing for the remainder of this year. The government blamed its rising subsidy bill for higher expenditures but said it is

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determined to keep any slippage in the fiscal deficit target to a minimum level. Early this week, the government forecast its subsidy bill for the full year to rise by 1 trillion rupees. India may face its worst financial crisis in decades if it fails to stem the slide in the rupee, leaving the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with a difficult choice over how to make best use of its limited reserves to maintain the confidence of foreign investors. Unlike most of its Asian peers, India has recently been running large current account and fiscal deficits. That means it must attract sufficient foreign money -- namely U.S. dollars -- to close the gap, and a weaker home currency makes that costlier. Europe's festering debt crisis and worries about the U.S. economy have seen global investors pull funds from emerging markets in recent months, adding to pressure on their currencies. The rupee is facing the brunt of this capital flight. The partially convertible currency is down nearly 17 percent against the U.S. dollar this year and is the worst performer in Asia. The government has attributed the depreciation in rupee in part to global reallocation of funds toward safe-haven assets and has reiterated its policy of forex intervention to control volatility rather than alter the trend. The weak rupee is confounding India's inflation management by pushing up the cost imported items. Headline inflation has been steadfast above 9 percent for the past 11 months despite 13 rate hikes by the central bank since March 2010. The government said softening global commodity prices on slowing demand should cool inflation beginning December and slow it further to 7 percent by March.

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