Technical Research | December 16, 2011

Daily Technical Report

Sensex (15836) / NIFTY (4746)
Markets opened on a pessimistic note in-line with negative global sentiment but recovered from the lows to close above the 4700 / 15800 mark. On the sectoral front, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Auto counters were among the major losers, whereas FMCG and Power sectors ended with a marginal gain. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=896 D=1818). (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
No specific formation is seen on the chart.
Source: Falcon

Trading strategy:
Weakning currency and negative global cues continued to hurt our markets in yesterdays session. However, buying interest near to crucial support level of 15700 / 4700 helped indices to close marginally in negative territory. Going forward, yesterdays low of 15596 / 4674 would act as support in coming trading sessions. A breach of this low may intensify selling pressure and indices may slide to test 15478 / 4639 level. Conversely, yesterdays high of 15908 / 4769 may act as immediate resistance level. A move above this level may take indices to test 16142 / 4841 level. Traders are advised to trade with caution as the RBI monetary policy would be declared during the session. Volatility is expected to increase during the announcement of the monetary policy.

Actionable points:
View Resistance levels Support levels Neutral 4769 4841 4674 4639

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Technical Research | December 16, 2011

Bank Nifty Outlook - (8445)

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
Bank nifty opened with a minor downside gap and traded in a narrow range throughout the session to close near initial opening level. Once again, in todays session the index has formed a Doji candle pattern which is a sign of indecisiveness prevailing at current level. The RBI monetary policy is expected to have a significant impact on the Bank Nifty and we expect clarity of trend for the further sessions. From the past three sessions, the index is constantly taking support near 78.6% retracement of the rise from 8240 9273. If the index sustains below yesterdays low of 8376 then it is likely to test 8295 8240 levels. On the upside, 8536 8630 levels are likely to act as resistance in coming trading session.

Actionable points:
View Resistance level Support levels Neutral 8536 8630 8376 8295 8240

Source: Falcon

Stock Recommendations:
Stock Aban Offshore (December Futures) Action Sell Last close ` 313

Exhibit 3: Aban Offshore (December Futures)

Selling Range ` 314 - 318 Stop Loss Target ` 327 ` 290

Justification On the daily chart, we are witnessing a bearish Cup and Handle pattern breakdown at ` 320 with significant rise in volumes. Further, the momentum oscillator RSI Smoothend on the Daily as well as Weekly chart has given a negative crossover. Hence, we advise selling this stock in a range of ` 314 to ` 318 for a target of ` 290 in coming 3 - 4 days.

Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | December 16, 2011

Positive Bias:

Stock Name Welspun Corp BPCL

CMP 84.5 529.6

5 Day EMA 78.2 533.3

20 Day EMA 77.7 543.9

Expected Target 95 560

Remarks View will change below 76 View will change below 505

Negative Bias:

Stock Name PTC

CMP 45.3

5 Day EMA 46.7

20 Day EMA 50.5

Expected Target 40

Remarks View will change above 48

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Technical Research | December 16, 2011

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 15,468 4,635 8,310 1,115 146 927 1,612 327 241 511 288 318 193 1,562 361 402 613 422 1,888 119 377 681 100 2,636 195 498 58 473 1,090 651 899 156 245 853 93 369 66 255 712 340 72 75 1,700 158 652 91 511 19 164 83 362 1,140 394 S1 15,652 4,691 8,377 1,128 150 938 1,632 332 245 520 294 324 198 1,574 366 408 625 427 1,922 123 386 690 104 2,676 198 513 60 478 1,112 658 915 161 248 861 96 376 68 259 731 349 74 76 1,718 161 660 92 517 20 168 87 368 1,161 400 PIVOT 15,780 4,730 8,443 1,138 152 945 1,646 337 249 528 299 327 201 1,583 371 412 634 431 1,944 126 392 698 106 2,705 200 523 61 483 1,134 666 928 164 251 873 98 387 69 263 743 357 76 77 1,745 164 670 94 521 20 172 89 374 1,176 409 R1 15,964 4,785 8,511 1,150 156 956 1,666 342 253 537 306 333 206 1,594 376 418 645 436 1,978 130 400 707 110 2,745 202 537 63 488 1,156 673 944 170 254 881 102 395 71 267 762 366 78 78 1,764 168 678 95 527 21 177 93 381 1,197 416 R2 16,092 4,824 8,577 1,160 158 963 1,680 347 257 544 310 336 209 1,603 380 422 654 440 2,000 133 406 715 112 2,775 204 548 64 493 1,178 682 956 173 257 893 104 406 72 272 774 374 80 79 1,791 171 688 97 531 22 181 95 387 1,211 425

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | December 16, 2011 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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