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Table of Contents
I. Valuation Overview II. Comparable Public Companies III. Precedent Transactions V. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis VI. Conclusions
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What Is Valuation?
How much is Computer Retailer Company A worth? (i.e. what is its valuation?) Company A will have different values to different buyers Would the following buyers be willing to pay more or less for a piece of the Companys equity?
An individual or fund looking to buy stock in the public market and be a minority shareholder (i.e. does not have much influence on the companys management, operations, strategy, etc., other than the occasional shareholder vote) A competitor looking to acquire 100% of the company and merge it into its own company, with the intention of attaining synergies such as price increases to customers, operational efficiencies, savings from shutting down one corporate headquarters and firing redundant employees, etc. A private equity firm that wants to buy 100% of the company for its own investment portfolio, and therefore have strong influence and control over the companys management team, strategy, operations, etc.
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The Public Market Valuation provides one perspective on the Companys valuation: it illustrates at what price minority shareholders are willing to buy and sell the equity shares of that company In addition to the Public Market Valuation, there are three methodologies commonly used to derive a companys valuation, providing three different valuation perspectives:
(1) Comparable Public Companies (aka Trading Multiples) (2) Precedent Transactions (aka Acquisition Multiples) (3) Discounted Cash Flows (DCF)
These three methodologies allow for the valuation of both publicly traded companies and privately held companies, provided you have some or all of the following information for the company that you want to value:
Recent income statement information (Revenues, EBIT, EBITDA, Net Income, etc.) for the company that you want to value Recent balance sheet information (cash balance, debt balance, minority interest balance, preferred and common equity information, number of equity shares outstanding, etc.) Projected income statement information (for next 1 2 years)
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MVE
aggregate value
MVE represents only the value from stockholders What about the value contributed by other stakeholders? Aggregate or total enterprise value (TEV) is the value attributed to ALL providers of capital
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To further understand the exclusion of cash, think of two (2) runners of equal ability
Runner 1 has $5.00 in his pocket Runner 2 has $100.00 in his pocket Is Runner 2 necessarily a better or more valuable runner than Runner 1?
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Table of Contents
I. Valuation Overview II. Comparable Public Companies III. Precedent Transactions V. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis VI. Conclusions
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Industries Business Models Profitability Size Growth Geography (International vs. Domestic) Equity research reports Competitors section from 10-K SIC codes Internet Senior bankers
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Sources include:
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Multiples Analysis
Relative valuation is a method based on applying multiples
A valuation multiple is a ratio between a value and an operating metric (financial institutions may look at balance sheet metrics)
For example: P/E ratio; price = value, earnings = operating metric Therefore, with a given multiple and a variable, you can determine the missing variable P/E = 25.5x, Earnings = $30 million; MVE = ?
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Operating Multiples
Why is TEV a part of operating multiples and not MVE?
Apples to Apples Remember, TEV ignores specific capital contribution Line items before interest are considered debt-free MVE is value to only stockholders and is affected by leverage
Lets say our subject company, a widget maker, has annual financials of the following:
Revenue: $19,426 million EBITDA: $1,369 million
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Equity Multiples
Unlike operating multiples, equity multiples are a function of MVE Since the general public owns common stock and not other types of securities, analysts speak in P/E ratios
Price per Share / Earnings per Share Market Cap / Earnings
Again P/E is a function of MVE, which is not a good indicator of company valuation Equity multiples require the denominator to be below the interest line (i.e. net income)
Again, Apples to Apples Wrong: TEV / Earnings Wrong: Market Cap / EBITDA
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Spreading Comps
Spreading comparable public companies and precedent transactions require an apples to apples comparison
Same time frame Last Twelve Months (LTM), Fiscal Year End (FYE) or latest quarter annualized (LQA)
Always use most recent financials Companies have different fiscal year-ends
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Market Capitalization and TEV should always be calculated using fully-diluted shares
Using basic shares outstanding will undercut the valuation, sometimes significantly In certain industries where options are a large part of employee compensation and incentive, the amount of dilutive shares can be sizeable
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Weighted-average dilutive shares assumed by management The Treasury Stock Method (TSM) Looks at the weighted-average number of new shares created from unexercised in-the-money warrants and options over a period of time
Commonly used in the calculation of diluted EPS Applies greater weight to those periods of higher earnings Does not provide an accurate spot account of the total number of inthe-money securities Most recent account of dilutive data (available in the 10Q and 10K) Lack of transparency or support - based on management discretion Ignores the effect of proceeds received from exercising dilutive securities
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Exercisable Options Outstanding represents the portion of Total Options Outstanding which is vested or earned
Note: Total Options Outstanding is used in the TSM for Precedent Transactions due to change of control provisions (to be explained in the next section)
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If convertible securities are in-the-money, they are converted in equity as a form of dilutive securities In the calculation of TEV, be careful not to double count preconverted and post-converted values of the same security
The conversion of a convertible security into equity means that its preconverted form can no longer exist For example, if you convert $500 million of convertible debt into dilutive shares, you must remember to remove $500 million from total debt
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Risk Rankings
Emphasis towards companies with closer business models, size, growth and profitability, etc.
Table of Contents
I. Valuation Overview II. Comparable Public Companies III. Precedent Transactions V. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis VI. Conclusions
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Precedent Transactions
Another form of relative value is precedent transactions
Many argue the most accurate way of determining valuation is observing what has been recently paid for comparable businesses in the same space
Rather than looking to the public markets for comparable company valuations, you look at valuations based on acquisitions
Precedent transactions yield an acquisition or control premium (approx: 20-25% depending on the industry)
Remember to adjust for minority interest-based valuations
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Typical information
Announce date vs. transaction date
The price at which a transaction closes at can sometimes be materially different from the original price offered at announce date The spread can be associated to:
Change in target or acquirer stock price Transaction-related adjustments
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Earn-out provisions
Portion of the consideration withheld until operational milestones are achieved
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Table of Contents
I. Valuation Overview II. Comparable Public Companies III. Precedent Transactions V. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis VI. Conclusions
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A DCF typically projects five (5) years of FCF plus a terminal value but it can be longer or shorter
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Terminal Value
The terminal value represents the value of an investment at the end of a period, taking into account a specified rate of interest (perpetuity)
In other words, it looks at a companys cashflow projected infinitely into the future at a particular growth rate There are two (2) generally accepted methods for calculating the terminal value
1. Gordon Growth Model 2. Terminal Multiple
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Apply the LTM multiple if using the cash flow multiple method
Terminal Value = (LTM Multiple from Comps) x (EBITDA)
Certain industries may require the use of Revenue, EBIT or Net Income multiple
The Gordon Growth Model is exactly what the definition of terminal value states
It is a constant rate projected forward - a perpetuity Terminal Value = (Ending Cashflow x (1 + Growth Rate)) / (Discount Rate - Growth Rate) Good sanity check when backed into Terminal Multiple approach
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Cost of Capital
Future cash flows need to be discounted at an appropriate rate in order to calculate present value
PV = FCF / (1 + discount rate)^year DCF = PVFCF(1) + + PVFCF(5) + PV Terminal Value
Cost of capital (aka, discount rate) is an investors required rate of return or opportunity cost for investing in a particular risk profile
That is to say, what return would I require in another investment of similar risk? Higher risk = higher required return
Common sense is the most important factor in determining the appropriate cost of capital
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Due to the combination of these two (2) types of capital on a companys balance sheet, the discount rate is usually referred to as the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
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Company-specific risk
Size risk Key-man risk Business model or projection risk
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Cost of Equity
The cost of equity is calculated using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) CAPM = Rf + Beta x (RM Rf)
Rf = risk-free rate (10, 20 or 30 year treasury notes) RM = market rate (Expected return on the market portfolio) RM Rf = market risk premium (return above the risk-free rate)
Calculated by taking an average of data points over many years in order to incorporate a large sample of events Most banks get this rate from Ibbotson Associates (source for risk premium)
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Betas outside of a range of 0.5 to 2.5 should be reviewed for reasonableness Firms use 2 year betas to 5 year betas
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Cost of Debt
Similar to the cost of equity, the cost of debt represents the return a lender would require in a security of similar risk
All things being equal, the cost of debt is lower than the cost of equity for the following two (2) reasons:
(1) Senior to equity less risk and therefore less required return (2) Interest is paid out before taxes
Under certain situations where a company is over-levered, raising debt may be more expensive due to default risk
There are two main categories of debt which may be valued separately
Non-convertible debt (includes capital leases) Convertible debt, which can be treated as equity if the convertible is in-the-money and as debt if it is out-of-the-money
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Homework
Best Buy Co., WACC example Best Buy Co., DCF example
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Table of Contents
I. Valuation Overview II. Comparable Public Companies III. Precedent Transactions V. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis VI. Conclusions
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Conclusions
Pros
Highly efficient market Easy to find information (public access) Arguably, the most accurate method
Cons
Size discrepancy Liquidity difference Hard to find good comps in niche market
Precedent Transactions
Poor disclosure on private and small deals Hard to find good comps in niche or slow M&A market Highly sensitive to discount rate and terminal multiple Hockey Stick tendencies projection risk
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