Effective Decision Making

AISE 3803

Objectives
„ Discuss and define group decision making
models and processes.
„ Discuss two problem-solving models.
„ Discuss conceptual blocks.
„ Examine methods for overcoming
conceptual blocks.
„ Discuss fostering innovation among others.

Decision Making
„ Definition:
„ A multi-step process through
which problems are
recognized (identified),
diagnosed, and defined;
„ solutions are generated and
selected; and.
„ solutions finally are
implemented.
Difficult Decisions
„ Sometimes, making a
decision is not an
easy task.

Types of Decisions
„ Programmed Decision:
„ A highly routine decision made according to
pre-established organizational policies and
procedures.
„ Non-Programmed Decision:
„ A decision made about a highly novel
problem for which there is no pre-specified
course of action.

Types of Decisions
„ Satisficing Decision:
„ A decision made after selecting alternatives
as they become available, then selecting the
first one that satisfies the decision maker’s
minimal requirements.
„ Rational Decision.
„ Decisions that maximize the achievement of
an individual’s, group’s, or organization’s
goals.
Facilitating Group Decision
Making Processes

Facilitating Group Decisions

„ Factors to be considered:
„ Group Background
„ Group Participation Patterns
„ Group Communications
„ Group Cohesion
„ Sub-Groups
„ Group Atmosphere
„ Group Standards
„ Group Procedures
„ Designated Leadership
„ Member Behavior

Planning and Organizing

„ What is the purpose of the group?
„ What is the group’s charge?
„ What goals or objectives must be met?
„ What tasks must be completed?
„ To facilitate group organization?
„ To realize goals or objectives?
 Planning and Organizing
„ When must task(s) be completed?
„ Short range completion?
„ Long range completion?
„ What are the desired outcomes?
„ What should the result be or look like?

Planning and Organizing

„ How will it get done?
„ Individual/group efforts?
„ Volunteers/contract work?
„ Who will do what?
„ Assignment of tasks?
„ Matching jobs and member talents.
„ Projection of Results?
„ Uncertainty absorption.
„ Recognition of bias.
„ Risk analysis.

Group Decisions
Require Advanced
Planning and
Unity
Uncertainty Absorption
„ All the estimates used in decision making
deal with the future, and all involve some
uncertainty.
„ Uncertainty is absorbed through:
„ Clarification.
„ Expert judgment.
„ Expert estimates.

Recognition of Bias
„ When we rely on experts or others to absorb
uncertainty, bias may be a problem.
„ Bias results from:
„ Differences in perceptions.
„ “Persuasive” advisors.
„ Internal/external group pressures.
„ Personal needs, goals, or beliefs.
„ How to reduce bias and uncertainty:
„ Increase credibility.
„ Identify reliable projections.

Risk Analysis
„ Factors to consider:
„ Benefits of action.
„ Consequences of action.
„ Affect on group.
„ Relationship to goals and objectives.
Quality of Group Decisions

Quality of Decisions
„ The quality of group decisions depends on:
„ The manner in which group members attempt to
evaluate the validity of opinions and assumptions
advanced by fellow members.
„ The manner in which group members attempt to
evaluate alternative choices in light of established
criteria.
„ The nature of the decisional premises employed by
the group.
„ The nature of influence exerted by influential
members of the group.

Decision Making Modes

„ Schein (1969) stated that groups typically
make decisions in one of six ways.
„ Lack of Response.
„ Authority Rule.
„ Minority Coalition.
„ Majority Rule.
„ Consensus.
„ Unanimity.
Decision Making Models
„ Parliamentary Procedure
„ Reflective Thinking
„ Brainstorming
„ Delphi
„ Quality Circles

Parliamentary Procedure
„ Common in Western societies.
„ Rooted in English parliamentary law-700 years old;
involving:
„ Presentation of proposals in the form of motions.
„ Debate on motions.
„ Amendments to the motion.
„ Votes on the amendments, then motions.
„ Protects the minority, while enforcing the majority
vote.

Reflective Thinking
„ Based on John Dewey’s model.
„ Characterized by:
„ Definition of the limits of the problem.
„ Analysis of the problem.
„ Suggestions for possible solutions.
„ Consideration of advantages and
disadvantages in each solution.
„ Implementation of the best solution.
Brainstorming
„ Brainstorming - designed to help people generate
alternatives for problem solving without
prematurely evaluating.
„ Not a complete problem solving process.
„ Rules include:
„ Adverse criticism is taboo.
„ Freewheeling creation of ideas is encouraged.
„ The quantity of ideas takes precedence over quality.
„ Participants build on or modify the ideas of others.

Delphi
„ Developed in 1950s by Rand Corp.
„ Involves interaction between a monitor team and
respondents.
„ Process includes:
„ Monitor team develops a survey for respondents.
„ Respondents complete the survey, individually.
„ Monitor team summarizes data, returns survey to
explore areas of agreement and disagreement within
the group.
„ Monitor team develops final summary of results,
based on several respondent interactions.

Quality Circles
„ An informal problem solving group of workers
and supervisors.
„ Basic features include:
„ Assumption that neither managers nor workers know
existing problems in quality or productivity.
„ Operates as an ongoing study group.
„ All participants are volunteers.
„ Emphasizes practical applications for actual
problems.
„ Organizational support is paramount to QC success.
 Synergy Effect
„ The intellectual stimulation of group
members resulting from their interaction
with one another.

Group Polarization
„ The tendency for group members to shift to
more extreme positions (in the direction
they originally favored) following group
interaction.

Jungle Survival
Your Your Expert Group Group
Items Difference Ranking Ranking Ranking Difference
First aid kit
Portable transistor radio
Disposable cigarette lighter
Three golf clubs
Seven large green garbage bags
Compass
Gift wrapped decorative candle (3” circumference)
.38 caliber pistol (loaded)
Bottle of liquid GI-type insect repellent (2 oz.)
Machete
Snake bite kit
One quart of Rum
One box of granola bars
Plastic space blanket (7 x 5.5 feet)
One gallon thermos (empty)
Totals
 Jungle Survival
Your Your Expert Group Group
Items Difference Ranking Ranking Ranking Difference
First aid kit 6
Portable transistor radio 13
Disposable cigarette lighter 2
Three golf clubs 11
Seven large green garbage bags 7
Compass 15
Gift wrapped decorative candle (3” circumference) 3
.38 caliber pistol (loaded) 12
Bottle of liquid GI-type insect repellent (2 oz.) 5
Machete 1
Snake bite kit 10
One quart of Rum 14
One box of granola bars 8
Plastic space blanket (7 x 5.5 feet) 4
One gallon thermos (empty) 9
Totals

Creative Problem Solving

Rational Problem Solving Steps

„ Define the problem.
„ Generate alternative solutions.
„ Evaluate and select an alternative.
„ Implement and follow up on the solution.
Define the Problem
„ Gather factual information.
„ Involve all individuals.
„ Specify the problem.
„ Identify what standards or expectations has
been violated.
„ Identify who has the problem.

Generate Alternatives
„ All alternatives should be proposed before an
evaluation is allowed.
„ All individuals involved should propose
alternatives.
„ Alternative solutions are consistent with
organizational goals.
„ Examine both short- and long-term consequences.
„ Alternatives build on one another.

Evaluate Alternatives
„ Alternatives are evaluated relative to an
optimal standard.
„ Evaluation of alternatives occurs
systematically.
„ Alternatives are evaluated in terms:
„ Organizational goals.
„ Probable effects.
„ Specific the ultimate alternative.
Implement the Solution
„ Implementation occurs at the right time.
„ The implementation process includes
opportunities for feedback.
„ The implementation is supported and
accepted by those affected.
„ An ongoing monitoring system is set up for
the implemented solution.

Conceptual Blocks
„ Conceptual blocks are mental obstacles that
constrain the way the problem is defined
and limit the number of alternative
solutions thought to be relevant.
„ Conceptual blocks result largely from
individual thinking processes and the way
problem-solvers use their minds when
facing problems.

Conceptual Blocks
„ Constancy
„ Commitment
„ Compression
„ Complacency
Constancy
„ Constancy means that an individual becomes
wedded to one way of looking at a problem or to
using one approach to define, describe, or solve
it.
„ Vertical Thinking- refers to defining a problem in
a single way, then pursuing that definition
without deviation until a solution is reached.
„ Single Thinking Language- people think about a
problem and its solution in terms of verbal
language.

Commitment
„ Once an individual become committed to a
particular point of view, definition, or
solution, it is likely that they will follow
through on that commitment.
„ Stereotyping Based on Past Experience.
„ Ignoring Commonalities.

Commitment Example
„ To test your ability to see commonalties,
answer the following question:
„ What are some common terms that apply to
both water and finance?
„ Banks, currency, cash flow, wash up, deposits,
frozen assets, float a loan, underwater pricing,
capital drain, sinking fund, liquid assets and slush
fund.
Compression
„ When one looks at a problem too narrowly;
screening out too much relevant data, or making
assumptions that inhibit problem solutions are
common examples.
„ Artificially Constraining Problems - the problem
definition and the possible alternatives are limited
more than the problem requires.
„ Separating Figure from Ground - the inability to
sufficiently constrain problems so that they can
be solved.

Complacency
„ Complacency occurs because of fear, ignorance,
insecurity or just plain mental laziness.
„ Non-inquisitiveness - declining to ask questions.
„ Bias Against Thinking - the inclination to avoid
doing mental work.
„ Left-hemisphere thinkers - logical, analytic, linear, or
sequential tasks.
„ Right-hemisphere thinkers - intuition, synthesis,
playfulness and qualitative judgment.

Conceptual Blockbusting
„ A product of years of habit-forming
thought process.
„ Requires practice in thinking in different
ways.
Creative Problem Solving
„ Preparation stage.
„ Includes gathering data, defining the problem,
generating alternatives and consciously
examining all available information.
„ Incubation stage.
„ Involves mostly unconscious mental activity
which the mind combines unrelated thoughts
in the pursuit of a solution.

Creative Problem Solving

„ Illumination.
„ Occurs when an insight is recognized and a
creative solution is articulated.
„ Verification.
„ Involves evaluating the creative solution
relative to some standard of acceptability.

Improving Problem Definition Methods

„ Make the strange familiar and the familiar
strange.
„ Synectics - put something you don’t know
in terms of something you do know and
vice versa.
„ Use of analogies and metaphors.
Improving Problem Definition Methods
„ Four types of analogies:
„ Personal - where individuals try to identify
themselves as the problem.
„ ("If I were the problem, how would I feel, what would I like,
what could satisfy me?").
„ Direct - where individuals apply facts, technology
and common experience to the problem.
„ ("Bruner solved the problem of underwater construction by
watching a shipworm tunneling into a tube.).

Improving Problem Definition Methods

„ Four types of analogies (continued):
„ Symbolic - symbols of images are imposed on the
problem.
„ (Modeling the problem mathematically or diagramming the
logic flow.).
„ Fantasy - an individual asks, "In my wildest dreams,
how would I wish the problem resolved?"
„ (I wish all employees would work with no supervision.).

Improving Problem Definition Methods

„ Elaborate on the definition.
„ Specify at least two plausible definitions of
the problem.
Improving Problem Definition Methods
„ Use a checklist.
„ Is there anything else?
„ Is the opposite true?
„ Is there a more general problem?
„ Can it be stated differently?
„ Who sees if differently?
„ What past experience is this like?
„ Reverse the definition - turn the problem upside
down, inside out, or back to front.

Generate More Alternatives

„ Defer judgment.
„ Brainstorm.
„ Expand Current Alternatives.
„ Subdivision - simply means dividing a
problem into smaller parts.
„ Combine Unrelated Attributes.

Generate More Alternatives

„ Morphological forced connection.
„ First the problem is written down.
„ Second, attributes of the problem are listed.
„ Third, alternatives to each attribute are listed.
„ Fourth, different alternatives from the attributed
listed are combined together.
„ Relational algorithm.
„ Involves applying connecting words that force a
relationship between two elements in a problem.
Summary
„ Many group decision making and problem-
solving models exist.
„ Conceptual blocks may hinder the
problem-solving process.
„ Constancy.
„ Commitment.
„ Compression.
„ Complacency.
„ Methods of overcoming conceptual blocks.

Evaluation
„ Quizzes, Exams, but most of all, LIFE!