Interviews with 1,015 adult Americans conducted by telephone

by ORC International on December 16-18, 2011. The margin of

sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or
minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 928
interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage
points).
The sample includes 814 interviews among landline respondents
and 201 interviews among cell phone respondents.

FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20 AT 4 PM

QUESTIONS 42 THROUGH 51 ROTATED. NAMES OF CANDIDATES WERE READ IN RANDOM ORDER.

42/43. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Michele Bachmann were the
Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or
Bachman, the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward?
Obama

Bachmann

Neither
(vol.)

Other
(vol.)

No
Opinion

Registered Voters
December 16-18, 2011

57%

38%

3%

1%

September 23-25, 2011

August 5-7, 2011

54%
51%

42%
45%

2%
3%

1%
*

1%
1%

All Respondents
December 16-18, 2011

58%

37%

3%

1%

September 23-25, 2011

August 5-7, 2011

57%
51%

40%
45%

2%
3%

1%
1%

*
1%

44/45. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Newt Gingrich were the Republican
Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do
you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)
Obama

Gingrich

Neither
(vol.)

Other
(vol.)

No
Opinion

Registered Voters
December 16-18, 2011

56%

40%

2%

1%

Nov. 11-13, 2011

Apr. 29-May 1, 2011
Oct. 27-30, 2010
Apr. 9-11, 2010

53%
57%
49%
55%

45%
40%
47%
43%

2%
2%
3%
1%

*
*
*
*

*
*
1%
*

All Respondents
December 16-18, 2011

57%

39%

3%

1%

Nov. 11-13, 2011

Apr. 29-May 1, 2011
Oct. 27-30, 2010
Apr. 9-11, 2010

54%
58%
50%
57%

43%
39%
45%
41%

2%
3%
4%
2%

1%
*
*
*

*
*
1%
*

POLL 20

-2-

December 16-18, 2011

46/47. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ron Paul were the Republican Party's
candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you
lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)
Obama

Paul

Neither
(vol.)

Other
(vol.)

No
Opinion

Registered Voters
December 16-18, 2011

52%

45%

3%

September 23-25, 2011

Apr. 29-May 1, 2011

51%
52%

47%
45%

2%
3%

1%
*

*
*

All Respondents
December 16-18, 2011

54%

43%

3%

September 23-25, 2011

Apr. 29-May 1, 2011

52%
53%

46%
43%

2%
3%

*
*

*
1%

48/49. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rick Perry were the Republican Party's
candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Perry, the
Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward?
Obama

Perry

Neither
(vol.)

Other
(vol.)

No
Opinion

Registered Voters
December 16-18, 2011

57%

39%

3%

1%

Nov. 11-13, 2011

Sept. 23-25, 2011
Aug. 5-7, 2011

52%
51%
51%

45%
46%
46%

2%
2%
3%

*
1%
*

*
1%
*

All Respondents
December 16-18, 2011

59%

37%

3%

1%

Nov. 11-13, 2011

Sept. 23-25, 2011
Aug. 5-7, 2011

53%
52%
51%

43%
44%
45%

2%
2%
3%

1%
1%
1%

*
*
1%

POLL 20

-3-

December 16-18, 2011

50/51. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican
Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Romney,
the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward?
Obama

Romney

Neither
(vol.)

Registered Voters
December 16-18, 2011

52%

45%

2%

1%

Nov. 11-13, 2011

Sept. 23-25, 2011
Aug. 5-7, 2011
Apr. 29-May 1, 2011
Oct. 27-30, 2010
Apr. 9-11, 2010

47%
49%
49%
54%
45%
53%

51%
48%
48%
43%
50%
45%

2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
1%

*
1%
*
1%
*
*

*
*
*
*
1%
*

All Respondents
December 16-18, 2011

53%

43%

3%

1%

Nov. 11-13, 2011

Sept. 23-25, 2011
Aug. 5-7, 2011
Apr. 29-May 1, 2011
Oct. 27-30, 2010
Apr. 9-11, 2010

48%
51%
49%
55%
47%
54%

48%
46%
47%
42%
48%
43%

3%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%

1%
1%
1%
1%
*
*

*
*
*
*
1%
*

POLL 20

-4-

Other
(vol.)

No
Opinion

December 16-18, 2011

CNN/ORC International Poll -- December 16 to 18, 2011

Question 42/43
Q42. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Michele Bachmann were the Republican
Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- ?
Q43. As of today, do you lean more toward -- ?
Base = Total Sample

Obama/Leans Obama
Bachmann/Lean Bachmann
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------58%
58%
58%
50%
37%
37%
38%
45%
3%
3%
4%
4%
1%
1%
*
1%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5

Obama/Leans Obama
Bachmann/Lean Bachmann
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----58%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Obama/Leans Obama
Bachmann/Lean Bachmann
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Under
Total
$50K
--------58%
59%
37%
36%
3%
4%
1%
1%
*
1%
+/-3.0 +/-5.0

Obama/Leans Obama
Bachmann/Lean Bachmann
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----58%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Democrat
----90%
7%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Leans Obama
Bachmann/Lean Bachmann
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----58%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

North
east
----66%
26%
5%
1%
1%
+/-6.5

Midwest
----56%
38%
5%
1%
*
+/-6.5

South
----53%
46%
1%
*
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Leans Obama
Bachmann/Lean Bachmann
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----58%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Tea Pty
Support
------14%
81%
3%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Tea Pty
Neutral
------59%
36%
4%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Tea Pty
Oppose
------89%
9%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

1834
----66%
28%
4%
1%
*
+/-8.5

3549
----56%
41%
2%
*
*
+/-7.0

Non-White
--------79%
18%
2%
*
*
+/-7.0

5064
----61%
36%
3%
*
*
+/-5.5

$50K
or more
------60%
37%
2%
1%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----46%
48%
4%
1%
1%
+/-5.5

No
College
------54%
44%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

Independent
-----56%
38%
5%
1%
*
+/-4.5

Under
50
----62%
34%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.5

50 and
Older
-----55%
41%
4%
1%
*
+/-4.0

Attended
College
-------61%
33%
4%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Republican
-----21%
77%
2%
*
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----86%
12%
1%
*
1%
+/-7.0

West
----62%
35%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

Moderate
----66%
31%
3%
*
*
+/-5.0

Urban
----64%
32%
4%
*
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------36%
60%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Suburban
----57%
37%
4%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----43%
54%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL 20

-5-

December 16-18, 2011

CNN/ORC International Poll -Question 44/45

Q44. If Barack Obama were the
candidate, who would you
Q45. As of today, do you lean

December 16 to 18, 2011

Democratic Party's candidate and Newt Gingrich were the Republican Party's
be more likely to vote for -- ?
more toward -- ?

Base = Total Sample

Obama/Lean Obama
Gingrich/Lean Gingrich
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------57%
54%
60%
46%
39%
41%
37%
49%
3%
4%
2%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Gingrich/Lean Gingrich
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----57%
39%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Gingrich/Lean Gingrich
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Under
Total
$50K
--------57%
61%
39%
35%
3%
3%
1%
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-5.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Gingrich/Lean Gingrich
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----57%
39%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Democrat
----92%
6%
1%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Gingrich/Lean Gingrich
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----57%
39%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

North
east
----64%
30%
4%
2%
*
+/-6.5

Midwest
----51%
44%
4%
1%
*
+/-6.5

South
----55%
42%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Gingrich/Lean Gingrich
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----57%
39%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Tea Pty
Support
------13%
85%
2%
*
*
+/-6.0

Tea Pty
Neutral
------60%
35%
4%
2%
*
+/-5.0

Tea Pty
Oppose
------85%
12%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

1834
----63%
31%
3%
2%
*
+/-8.5

3549
----59%
38%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

Non-White
--------83%
15%
2%
*
*
+/-7.0

5064
----58%
38%
3%
*
*
+/-5.5

$50K
or more
------55%
41%
3%
1%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----43%
55%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

No
College
------57%
41%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

Independent
-----53%
41%
5%
1%
*
+/-4.5

Under
50
----61%
34%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.5

50 and
Older
-----52%
45%
3%
*
*
+/-4.0

Attended
College
-------57%
38%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Republican
-----19%
80%
1%
*
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----88%
10%
2%
*
1%
+/-7.0

West
----60%
38%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

Moderate
----65%
32%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Urban
----65%
31%
4%
*
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------33%
63%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Suburban
----52%
44%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----46%
51%
2%
1%
*
+/-6.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL 20

-6-

December 16-18, 2011

CNN/ORC International Poll -Question 46/47

Q46. If Barack Obama were the
candidate, who would you
Q47. As of today, do you lean

December 16 to 18, 2011

Democratic Party's candidate and Ron Paul were the Republican Party's
be more likely to vote for -- ?
more toward -- ?

Base = Total Sample

Obama/Lean Obama
Paul/Lean Paul
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------54%
50%
57%
46%
43%
46%
41%
51%
3%
4%
2%
3%
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Paul/Lean Paul
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----54%
43%
3%
*
*
+/-3.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Paul/Lean Paul
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Under
Total
$50K
--------54%
57%
43%
41%
3%
2%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-5.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Paul/Lean Paul
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----54%
43%
3%
*
*
+/-3.0

Democrat
----89%
10%
1%
*
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Paul/Lean Paul
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----54%
43%
3%
*
*
+/-3.0

North
east
----58%
38%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

Midwest
----49%
46%
4%
*
*
+/-6.5

South
----52%
46%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Paul/Lean Paul
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----54%
43%
3%
*
*
+/-3.0

Tea Pty
Support
------16%
79%
3%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Tea Pty
Neutral
------57%
39%
3%
*
*
+/-5.0

Tea Pty
Oppose
------75%
23%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

1834
----53%
47%
*
*
*
+/-8.5

3549
----56%
39%
5%
*
*
+/-7.0

Non-White
--------72%
25%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

5064
----57%
40%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

$50K
or more
------53%
44%
4%
*
*
+/-4.5

65+
----46%
47%
6%
1%
*
+/-5.5

No
College
------53%
44%
3%
*
*
+/-5.5

Independent
-----47%
48%
4%
*
*
+/-4.5

Under
50
----55%
43%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

50 and
Older
-----53%
43%
4%
*
*
+/-4.0

Attended
College
-------54%
43%
3%
*
*
+/-3.5

Republican
-----18%
79%
3%
*
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----84%
13%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

West
----56%
41%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

Moderate
----56%
42%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

Urban
----60%
38%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------35%
61%
4%
*
*
+/-5.0

Suburban
----50%
45%
4%
*
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----44%
52%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL 20

-7-

December 16-18, 2011

CNN/ORC International Poll -Question 48/49

Q48. If Barack Obama were the
candidate, who would you
Q49. As of today, do you lean

December 16 to 18, 2011

Democratic Party's candidate and Rick Perry were the Republican Party's
be more likely to vote for -- ?
more toward -- ?

Base = Total Sample

Obama/Lean Obama
Perry/Lean Perry
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------59%
57%
60%
50%
37%
39%
35%
46%
3%
3%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Perry/Lean Perry
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----59%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Perry/Lean Perry
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Under
Total
$50K
--------59%
61%
37%
36%
3%
3%
1%
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-5.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Perry/Lean Perry
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----59%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Democrat
----92%
5%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Perry/Lean Perry
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----59%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

North
east
----66%
27%
5%
2%
*
+/-6.5

Midwest
----56%
39%
5%
*
*
+/-6.5

South
----54%
43%
1%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Perry/Lean Perry
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----59%
37%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Tea Pty
Support
------16%
83%
1%
*
*
+/-6.0

Tea Pty
Neutral
------60%
34%
5%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Tea Pty
Oppose
------87%
10%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

1834
----69%
28%
3%
1%
*
+/-8.5

3549
----58%
38%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

Non-White
--------80%
17%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

5064
----59%
37%
4%
*
*
+/-5.5

$50K
or more
------58%
38%
3%
1%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----43%
53%
4%
*
*
+/-5.5

No
College
------52%
45%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Independent
-----59%
35%
5%
1%
*
+/-4.5

Under
50
----64%
33%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.5

50 and
Older
-----53%
43%
4%
*
*
+/-4.0

Attended
College
-------63%
32%
4%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Republican
-----15%
85%
1%
*
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----89%
8%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

West
----62%
35%
2%
*
*
+/-6.5

Moderate
----66%
30%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Urban
----64%
31%
4%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------35%
61%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Suburban
----55%
40%
4%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----49%
49%
2%
*
*
+/-6.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL 20

-8-

December 16-18, 2011

CNN/ORC International Poll -Question 50/51

Q50. If Barack Obama were the
candidate, who would you
Q51. As of today, do you lean

December 16 to 18, 2011

Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's
be more likely to vote for -- ?
more toward -- ?

Base = Total Sample

Obama/Lean Obama
Romney/Lean Romney
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------53%
51%
56%
43%
43%
45%
42%
53%
3%
3%
2%
3%
1%
1%
*
1%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Romney/Lean Romney
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----53%
43%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Romney/Lean Romney
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Under
Total
$50K
--------53%
57%
43%
39%
3%
3%
1%
1%
*
*
+/-3.0 +/-5.0

Obama/Lean Obama
Romney/Lean Romney
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----53%
43%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Democrat
----89%
8%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Romney/Lean Romney
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----53%
43%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

North
east
----59%
34%
5%
2%
*
+/-6.5

Midwest
----53%
42%
5%
1%
*
+/-6.5

South
----49%
50%
1%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Obama/Lean Obama
Romney/Lean Romney
Neither
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----53%
43%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.0

Tea Pty
Support
------9%
88%
2%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Tea Pty
Neutral
------55%
40%
4%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Tea Pty
Oppose
------82%
16%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

1834
----60%
36%
2%
1%
*
+/-8.5

3549
----55%
41%
4%
*
*
+/-7.0

Non-White
--------77%
20%
3%
*
*
+/-7.0

5064
----53%
44%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

$50K
or more
------51%
46%
2%
1%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----39%
57%
3%
1%
1%
+/-5.5

No
College
------51%
47%
2%
*
*
+/-5.5

Independent
-----49%
46%
4%
1%
*
+/-4.5

Under
50
----58%
39%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.5

50 and
Older
-----47%
49%
3%
1%
*
+/-4.0

Attended
College
-------54%
41%
3%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Republican
-----13%
85%
1%
*
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----88%
10%
2%
*
*
+/-7.0

West
----56%
43%
1%
*
*
+/-6.5

Moderate
----58%
40%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

Urban
----60%
37%
3%
*
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------30%
65%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Suburban
----48%
47%
3%
2%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----41%
56%
3%
*
*
+/-6.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL 20

-9-

December 16-18, 2011