Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 5
Discrete Distributions
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The overall learning objective of Chapter 5 is to help you understand a category of probability
distributions that produces only discrete outcomes, thereby enabling you to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
5.1
5.2
5.3
Binomial Distribution
Solving a Binomial Problem
Using the Binomial Table
Using the Computer to Produce a Binomial Distribution
Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution
Graphing Binomial Distributions
5.4
Poisson Distribution
Working Poisson Problems by Formula
Using the Poisson Tables
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Poisson Distribution
Graphing Poisson Distributions
Using the Computer to Generate Poisson Distributions
Approximating Binomial Problems by the Poisson Distribution
5.5
Hypergeometric Distribution
Using the Computer to Solve for Hypergeometric Distribution
Probabilities
KEY TERMS
Binomial Distribution
Continuous Distributions
Continuous Random Variables
Discrete Distributions
Discrete Random Variables
Hypergeometric Distribution
Lambda ( )
Mean, or Expected Value
Poisson Distribution
Random Variable
(x-)2
2.775556
0.443556
0.111556
1.779556
5.447556
(x-)2P(x)
0.6605823
0.1286312
0.0197454
0.2811700
0.7463152
2
2
= [(x-) P(x)] = 1.836444
= 1.355155
5.1
x
1
2
3
4
5
5.2
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
P(x)
.103
.118
.246
.229
.138
.094
.071
.001
xP(x)
.000
.118
.492
.687
.552
.470
.426
.007
= [xP(x)] = 2.752
=
(x-)2
(x-)2P(x)
7.573504
0.780071
3.069504
0.362201
0.565504
0.139114
0.061504
0.014084
1.557504
0.214936
5.053504
0.475029
10.549500
0.749015
18.045500
0.018046
2
2
= [(x-) P(x)] = 2.752496
2.752496
= 1.6591
5.3
x
0
1
2
3
4
P(x)
xP(x)
.461
.000
.285
.285
.129
.258
.087
.261
.038
.152
E(x) = = [xP(x)]= 0.956
=
(x-)2
(x-)2P(x)
0.913936
0.421324
0.001936
0.000552
1.089936
0.140602
4.177936
0.363480
9.265936
0.352106
2
2
= [(x-) P(x)] = 1.278064
1.278064
= 1.1305
5.4
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
5.5
a)
P(x)
.262
.393
.246
.082
.015
.002
.000
xP(x)
.000
.393
.492
.246
.060
.010
.000
= [xP(x)] = 1.201
.96260
=
n=4
P(x=3) =
b)
n=7
p = .10
(x-)2
(x-)2P(x)
1.4424
0.37791
0.0404
0.01588
0.6384
0.15705
3.2364
0.26538
7.8344
0.11752
14.4324
0.02886
23.0304
0.00000
2
2
= [(x-) P(x)] = 0.96260
= .98112
q = .90
p = .80
q = .20
n = 10
p = .60
q = .40
10
n = 12
p = .45
q = .55
12
5.6
By Table A.2:
a)
n = 20
p = .50
P(x=12) = .120
b)
n = 20
p = .30
n = 20
p = .70
n = 20
p = .90
n = 15
p = .40
n = 10
p = .60
5.7
a)
n = 20
p = .70
q = .30
= n p = 20(.70) = 14
=
b)
n p q =
n = 70
20 (. 70 )(. 30 ) =
p = .35
4 .2
= 2.05
q = .65
= n p = 70(.35) = 24.5
=
c)
n p q =
n = 100
70 (. 35 )(. 65 ) = 15 .925
p = .50
= 3.99
q = .50
= n p = 100(.50) = 50
5.8
a)
n=6
b)
n = 20
n p q = 100 (. 50 )(. 50 ) =
p = .70
p = .50
25
= 5
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Prob
.001
.010
.060
.185
.324
.303
.118
Prob
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
.000
.000
.000
.001
.005
.015
.037
.074
.120
.160
.176
.160
.120
.074
.037
.015
.005
.001
.000
.000
.000
5.9
c)
n=8
a)
n = 20
p = .80
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
p = .78
Prob
.000
.000
.001
.009
.046
.147
.294
.336
.168
x = 14
20
b)
n = 20
p = .75
x = 20
20
c)
n = 20
p = .70
x < 12
5.10
n = 16
10
p = .40
Prob
.084
.039
.014
.004
.001
.142
Prob
.047
.101
.162
.198
.508
n = 13
p = .88
5.11
n = 25
11
p = .60
a) x > 15
P(x > 15) = P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + + P(x = 25)
Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .60
x
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Prob
.161
.151
.120
.080
.044
.020
.007
.002
.585
b) x > 20
P(x > 20) = P(x = 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x = 23) + P(x = 24) + P(x = 25) =
Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .60
.007 + .002 + .000 + .000 + .000 = .009
c) P(x < 10)
Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .60 and x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
x
9
8
7
<6
Prob.
.009
.003
.001
.000
.013
5.12
n = 16
p = .50
12
x > 10
p = .87
Prob.
.067
.028
.009
.002
.000
.000
.106
x=6
10
5.13
n = 15
a) P(x = 5) =
p = .20
C5(.20)5(.80)10 = 3003(.00032)(.1073742) = .1032
15
15
5.14
13
n = 18
a)
p =.30
= 18(.30) = 5.4
p = .34
= 18(.34) = 6.12
P(x > 8)
n = 18
b)
p = .30
Prob
.081
.039
.015
.005
.001
.141
p = .34
18
C3(.34)3(.66)15 +
18
C4(.34)4(.66)14 =
18
p = .30
x=0
C0(.30)0(.70)18 = .00163
18
n = 18
p = .34
x=0
C0(.34)0(.66)18 = .00056
18
Since only 30% (compared to 34%) fall in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 category, it is
more likely that none of the CPA financial advisors would fall in this category.
5.15
2 .3 5 e
a) P(x=5 = 2.3) =
5!
2 .3
3 .9 2 e
b) P(x=2 = 3.9) =
2!
( 6 . 34 6
3 .9
14
)3 1( 4 . 0 3 0 ) 2 5 9
= .0538
1 2 0
( 1 . 25 ) 1 (0 . 2
2
0) 2
4 2
= .1539
4 .1
4 .1 2 e
2!
4 .1
4 .1 1 e
1!
4 .1
( 6 . 98 2) (01 . 1
6
( 1 . 86 ) 1 (0 . 1
2
( 4 . 1 ) (0 . 1
1
6) 5 7 3
= .1904
6) 5
6) 5
4 .1 0 e 4 . 1
( 1 ) (0 . 1
=
0 !
1
6) 5
7 3
= .1393
7 3
= .0679
7 3
= .0166
5 .4
( 5 . 4 ) (0 . 0
1
4 .4
4 )5
1 6 6
= .0244
4 .4 6 e 4 .4
4 .4 7 e
+
6 !
7!
6 . 1 4 6 9 ) 2 (0 .2 1
1 2 0
4 .4
2 ) 7 ( 77 23 . 3 54 1 6 ) 3 (0 .9 1
+
7 2 0
2) 7
5.16
Prob
.0068
.0022
.0006
.0002
.0000
.0098
Prob
.1852
.1944
.1633
.1143
.0686
.0360
.0168
.7786
Prob
.0550
.1596
.2314
.2237
.1622
.0940
.0455
.9714
Prob
.1594
.1298
.0925
.3817
15
5.17 a) = 6.3
mean = 6.3
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Standard deviation =
Prob
.0018
.0116
.0364
.0765
.1205
.1519
.1595
.1435
.1130
.0791
.0498
.0285
.0150
.0073
.0033
.0014
.0005
.0002
.0001
.0000
16
6 .3
= 2.51
b) = 1.3
mean = 1.3
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
17
standard deviation =
Prob
.2725
.3542
.2303
.0998
.0324
.0084
.0018
.0003
.0001
.0000
1.3
= 1.14
c) = 8.9
mean = 8.9
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
18
standard deviation =
Prob
.0001
.0012
.0054
.0160
.0357
.0635
.0941
.1197
.1332
.1317
.1172
.0948
.0703
.0481
.0306
.0182
.0101
.0053
.0026
.0012
.0005
.0002
.0001
8.9
= 2.98
d) = 0.6
mean = 0.6
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
standard deviation =
Prob
.5488
.3293
.0988
.0198
.0030
.0004
.0000
0.6
= .775
5.18
20
= 2.84 minutes
a) P(x=6 = 2.8)
from Table A.3 .0407
b) P(x=0 = 2.8) =
from Table A.3 .0608
c) Unable to meet demand if x > 44 minutes:
x
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Prob.
.0872
.0407
.0163
.0057
.0018
.0005
.0001
.1523
21
5.19
x
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Prob.
.1697
.1584
.1267
.0887
.0552
.0309
.0157
.0073
.0032
.0013
.0005
.0002
.0001
.6579
22
e) P(x = 8 15 minutes)
Change Lambda for a 15 minute interval by multiplying the original Lambda by 3.
= 10.5 15 minutes
P(x = 815 minutes) =
5.20
x e
x!
(10 .58 )( e 10 .5 )
8!
= .1009
Prob.
.0005
.0002
.0001
.0008
5.21
23
x
2
3
4
5
6
Prob.
.0988
.0198
.0030
.0004
.0000
.1220
x
0
1
2
3
e) P(x=46 years):
The interval has been increased (6 times)
New Lambda = = 3.6 trips6 years
P(x=4 = 3.6):
from Table A.3 = .1912
Prob.
.1653
.2975
.2678
.1607
.8913
5.22
24
x
0
1
Prob.
.1653
.2975
.4628
The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel and
weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness is
about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the
lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1
collisions per 6 months.
5.23
25
= 1.2 penscarton
a) P(x=0 = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .3012
b) P(x > 8 = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .0000
c) P(x > 3 = 1.2):
from Table A.3
x
4
5
6
7
8
Prob.
.0260
.0062
.0012
.0002
.0000
.0336
5.24
n = 100,000
26
p = .00004
x
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Prob.
.0595
.0298
.0132
.0053
.0019
.0006
.0002
.0001
.1106
x
11
12
13
14
Prob.
.0019
.0006
.0002
.0001
.0028
Since getting more than 10 is a rare occurrence, this particular geographic region
appears to have a higher average rate than other regions. An investigation of
particular characteristics of this region might be warranted.
5.25
p = .009
27
n = 200
5.26
If 99% see a doctor, then 1% do not see a doctor. Thus, p = .01 for this problem.
n = 300,
p = .01,
= n(p) = 300(.01) = 3
a) P(x = 5):
Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008
b) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =
.0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472
c) The expected number = = = 3
5.27
28
a) P(x = 3 N = 11, A = 8, n = 4)
8
C 3 3 C1 (56 )(3)
=
= .5091
330
11 C 4
C1 10 C 5
+
15 C 6
C 0 10 C 6
(5)( 252 ) (1)( 210 )
+
=
5005
5005
15 C 6
C 0 7 C 3 (1)(35)
=
= .4167
84
9 C3
C5 15 C 2
+
20 C 7
C 6 15 C1
+
20 C 7
C 7 15 C 0
=
20 C 7
(1)(105 )
+ 5C6 (impossible) + 5C7(impossible) = .0014
77520
5.28
N = 19 n = 6
a) P(x = 1 private)
11
A = 11
C1 8 C 5
(11)( 56 )
=
= .0227
27 ,132
19 C 6
b) P(x = 4 private)
11
C 4 8 C 2
(330 )( 28 )
=
= .3406
27 ,132
19 C 6
c) P(x = 6 private)
11
C 6 8 C 0
(462 )(1)
=
= .0170
27 ,132
19 C 6
d) P(x = 0 private)
11
C 0 8 C 6
(1)( 28 )
=
= .0010
27 ,132
19 C 6
29
5.29
N = 17
A=8
8
a) P(x = 0) =
b) P(x = 4) =
n=4
C 0 9 C 4
(1)(126 )
=
= .0529
C
2380
17 4
C 4 9 C 0
(70 )(1)
=
= .0294
2380
17 C 4
5.30
N = 20
30
A = 16 white
a) P(x = 4 white) =
b) P(x = 4 red) =
16
C 2 8 C 2
(36 )( 28 )
=
= .4235
2380
17 C 4
N - A = 4 red
n=5
C 4 4 C1
(1820 )( 4)
=
15504
20 C 5
= .4696
C 4 16 C1
(1)(16 )
=
= .0010
15504
20 C 5
C 5 16 C 0
= .0000 because 4C5 is impossible to determine
20 C 5
The participant cannot draw 5 red beads if there are only 4 to draw from.
c) P(x = 5 red) =
5.31
N = 10
31
n=4
a) A = 3 x = 2
3
P(x = 2) =
C 2 7 C 2 (3)( 21)
=
= .30
210
10 C 4
b) A = 5 x = 0
P(x = 0) =
C 0 5 C 4 (1)(5)
=
= .0238
210
10 C 4
c) A = 5 x = 3
P(x = 3) =
5.32
N = 16
a) P(x = 0) =
C 3 5 C1 (10 )(5)
=
= .2381
210
10 C 4
A = 4 defective
4
n=3
C 0 12 C 3 (1)( 220 )
=
= .3929
560
16 C 3
C 3 12 C 0 ( 4)(1)
=
= .0071
560
16 C 3
4 C 2 12 C1
c) P(x > 2) = P(x=2) + P(x=3) =
+ .0071 (from part b.) =
16 C 3
(6)(12 )
560
+ .0071 = .1286 + .0071 = .1357
b) P(x = 3) =
C1 12 C 2
( 4)( 66 )
+ .3929 (from part a.) =
+ .3929 = .4714 + .3929 = .8643
560
16 C 3
5.33
N = 18
A = 11 Hispanic
32
n=5
C1 7 C 4
+
18 C 5
11
C 0 7 C 5
=
18 C 5
(11 )( 35 ) (1)( 21 )
+
= .0449 + .0025 = .0474
8568
8568
It is fairly unlikely that these results occur by chance. A researcher might want to
further investigate this result to determine causes. Were officers selected based on
leadership, years of service, dedication, prejudice, or some other reason?
5.34
11
14
C1(.70)1(.30)13 + 14C0(.70)0(.30)14 =
14
(364)(.3430)(.00000177) + (91)(.49)(.000000531)=
(14)(.70)(.00000016) + (1)(1)(.000000048) =
.0002 + .0000 + .0000 + .0000 = .0002
5.35
33
Prob.
.028
.121
.233
.267
.200
.849
Prob.
.063
.022
.005
.000
.090
Prob.
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
34
5.36
a) P(x = 4 = 1.25)
( 1 .2
5) e( 1 . 2 )5 ( 2 . 4
=
4!
4 ) 1 (2 .4 8 ) 6 5
= .0291
2 4
6 .3
( 6 .3
7 ) e( 6 . 3 7) ( 6 . 3 ) 7 (0 . 0 ) 1 ( 71 ) (0 . 0 ) 1
=
+
0 !
1
1
5.37
35
Prob.
.0369
.1217
.2008
.2209
.1823
.7626
Prob.
.1890
.0992
.0417
.0146
.0044
.0011
.0003
.0001
.0000
.3504
Prob.
.1852
.1944
.1633
.5429
5.38
a) P(x = 3N = 6, n = 4, A = 5) =
36
C 3 1 C1 (10 )(1)
=
= .6667
15
6 C4
C1 5 C 2
+
10 C 3
C 0 5 C3
(5)(10 ) (1)(10 )
+
=
120
120
10 C 3
5.39
C 2 10 C 3
+
13 C 5
C 3 10 C 2
(3)(120 ) (1)( 45 )
+
=
= .2797 + .0350 = .3147
C
1287
1287
13
5
n = 25 p = .20 retired
from Table A.2: P(x = 7) = .111
P(x > 10): P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 25) = .012 + .004 + .001 = .017
Expected Value = = n p = 25(.20) = 5
n = 20 p = .40 mutual funds
P(x = 8) = .180
P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 5) =
.000 + .000 + .003 +.012 + .035 + .075 = .125
P(x = 0) = .000
P(x > 12) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 13) + . . . + P(x = 20) = .035 + .015 + .005 + .001 = .056
x=8
Expected Number = = n p = 20(.40) = 8
5.40
37
Prob.
.0176
.0047
.0011
.0002
.0236
Either a rare event occurred or perhaps the long-run average, , has changed
(increased).
5.41
N = 32
A = 10
a) P(x = 3) =
10
b) P(x = 6) =
10
c) P(x = 0) =
10
38
n = 12
C 3 22 C 9
(120 )( 497 ,420 )
=
= .2644
225 ,792 ,840
32 C12
C 6 22 C 6
( 210 )( 74 ,613 )
=
= .0694
225 ,792 ,840
32 C12
C 0 22 C12
(1)( 646 ,646 )
=
= .0029
225 ,792 ,840
32 C12
d) A = 22
P(7 < x < 9) =
22
C 7 10 C 5
+
32 C12
22
C8 10 C 4
+
32 C12
22
C 9 10 C 3
32 C12
5.42
Prob.
.2466
.3452
.2417
.1128
.9463
5.43
39
a) n = 20 and p = .25
The expected number = = n p = (20)(.25) = 5.00
b) P(x < 1n = 20 and p = .25) =
P(x = 1) + P(x = 0) =
C1(.25)1(.75)19 + 20C0(.25)0(.75)20
20
5.44
Prob.
.233
.121
.028
.382
15
c) n = 7
p = .53
5.45
40
n = 12
a.) P(x = 0 long hours):
C0(.20)0(.80)12 = .0687
p = .20
12
C5(.25)5(.75)7 = .1032
12
5.46
n = 100,000
p = .000014
Worked as a Poisson:
= n p = 100,000(.000014) = 1.4
a) P(x = 5):
from Table A.3 = .0111
b) P(x = 0):
from Table A.3 = .2466
c) P(x > 6):
x
7
8
Prob
.0005
.0001
.0006
5.47
41
Prob.
.001
.008
.041
.124
.174
17.4% of the time in a sample of eight, three or fewer customers are walk-ins by
chance. Other reasons for such a low number of walk-ins might be that she is
retaining more old customers than before or perhaps a new competitor is
attracting walk-ins away from her.
5.48
n = 25
p = .20
.062
Prob.
.004
.001
.000
.005
c) Since such a result would only occur 0.5% of the time by chance, it is likely
that the analyst's list was not representative of the entire state of Idaho or the
20% figure for the Idaho census is not correct.
5.49
42
Prob.
.0198
.0030
.0004
.0232
Assume one trip is independent of the other. Let F = flat tire and NF = no flat tire
P(NF1 _ NF2) = P(NF1) P(NF2)
but P(NF) = .5488
P(NF1 _ NF2) = (.5488)(.5488) = .3012
5.50
N = 25
n=8
a) P(x = 1 in NY)
4
A=4
C1 21 C 7
( 4)(116 ,280 )
=
= .4300
1,081 ,575
25 C 8
A = 10
C 4 15 C 4 (210 (1365 )
=
= .2650
1,081,575
25 C 8
c) P(x = 0 in California)
5
C 0 20 C 8 (1)(125 ,970 )
=
= .1165
1,081,575
25 C 8
d) P(x = 3 with M)
3
5.51
A=5
A=3
C 3 22 C 5
(1)( 26 ,334 )
=
= .0243
1,081,575
25 C 8
N = 24
n=6
A=8
a) P(x = 6) =
b) P(x = 0) =
43
C 6 16 C 0
(28)(1)
=
= .0002
134 ,596
24 C 6
8
C 0 16 C 6 (1)(8008 )
=
= .0595
134 ,596
24 C 6
d) A = 16 East Side
P(x = 3) =
5.52
n = 25 p = .20
16
C 3 8 C 3 (560 )(56)
=
= .2330
134 ,596
24 C 6
= 25(.20) = 5
n p q =
25 (. 20 )(. 80 )
= 2
x Prob
13 .0000
The values for x > 12 are so far away from the expected value that they are very
unlikely to occur.
P(x = 14) = 25C14(.20)14(.80)11 = .000063 which is very unlikely.
If this value (x = 14) actually occurred, one would doubt the validity of the
p = .20 figure or one would have experienced a very rare event.
5.53
44
.3293
.5488
.8781
Prob.
.0241
.0083
.0025
.0007
.0002
.0000
.0358
5.54
n = 160
45
p = .01
x
8
9
Prob.
.0002
.0000
.0002
x
2
3
4
5
6
Prob.
.2584
.1378
.0551
.0176
.0047
.4736
5.55
p = .005
n = 1,000
= n p = (1,000)(.005) = 5
a) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =
.0067 + .0337 + .0842 + .1404 = .265
b) P(x > 10) = P(x = 11) + P(x = 12) + . . . =
.0082 + .0034 + .0013 + .0005 + .0002 = .0136
c) P(x = 0) = .0067
5.56
n=8
p = .36
46
x = 0 women
It is unlikely that a company would randomly hire 8 physicians from the U.S. pool
and none of them would be female. If this actually happened, figures similar to these
might be used as evidence in a lawsuit.
5.57
N = 34
a) n = 5
13
x=3
A = 13
C 3 21 C 2 (286 )( 210 )
=
= .2158
278 ,256
34 C 5
b) n = 8 x < 2
5
C 0 29 C8
+
34 C 8
A=5
5
C1 29 C 7
+
34 C 8
C 2 29 C 6
=
34 C 8
c) n = 5
x=2
A=3
5.58
47
N = 14 n = 4
a) P(x = 4N = 14, n = 4, A = 10 north side)
10
C 4 4 C 0 ( 210 ((1)
=
= .2098
1001
14 C 4
C 4 10 C 0
(1)(1)
=
= .0010
1001
14 C 4
5.59
C 2 10 C 2 (6)( 45)
=
= .2697
1001
14 C 4
a) = 3.841,000
P(x = 0) =
3.84 0 e 3.84
0!
= .0215
b) = 7.682,000
7.68 6 e 7.68
(205 ,195 .258 )(. 000461975 )
=
P(x = 6) =
= .1317
6!
720
5.60
48
= n p = 15(.36) = 5.4
=
15 (. 36 )(. 64 )
= 1.86
The most likely values are near the mean, 5.4. Note from the printout that the
most probable values are at x = 5 and x = 6 which are near the mean.
5.61
This printout contains the probabilities for various values of x from zero to eleven from a
Poisson distribution with = 2.78. Note that the highest probabilities are at x = 2 and
x = 3 which are near the mean. The probability is slightly higher at x = 2 than at x = 3
even though x = 3 is nearer to the mean because of the piling up effect of x = 0.
5.62
n p q =
22 (. 64 )(. 36 )
= 2.25
5.63
This is the graph of a Poisson Distribution with = 1.784. Note the high
probabilities at x = 1 and x = 2 which are nearest to the mean. Note also that the
probabilities for values of x > 8 are near to zero because they are so far away
from the mean or expected value.