Some Recent Major Events and Considerations for Modelling and Simulation

(Invited Paper)

Richard Zobel
Dept. of Computer Engineering Prince of Songkla University Phuket Thailand

Volcanoes and Modelling

The following slides indicate the enormous variation in time scale, complexity, magnitude and severity of volcanoes around the world. Modelling and simulation of such a wide range of volcanic activity present a big challenge. Developing and using such models is important in relation to emergency planning for organising local measures to minimise loss of life, injury and damage to property. Use of data from previous local events and of historic events associated with similar volcanic activities at other sites can be used to good effect. The following slides illustrate a number of different scenarios collected by the author in his travels.

Volcano, Bali, Indonesia

Volcano Crater, Bandung, Indonesia

Nissyros Volcano, Greece

Taal Lake, Tagatai, Philippines

Mount Vesuvius, Napoli, Italy

Copyright and Courtesy of Dr. Tom Pfeiffer, Volcanologist and Manager of VolcanoDiscovery and his Colleague Stephen Hunt

Mount Vesuvius Crater, Napoli, Italy Mount Vesuvius Crater, Italy

Copyright and Courtesy of Dr. Tom Pfeiffer, Volcanologist and Manager of VolcanoDiscovery and his Colleague Stephen Hunt

Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, Iceland Mount Vesuvius Crater, Italy

Copyright and Courtesy of Stephen Hunt, Copyright and Courtesy of Dr. Tom Pfeiffer, Volcanologist and Manager of VolcanoDiscovery andAssociate Volcanologist, VolcanoDiscovery his Colleague Stephen Hunt

Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, Iceland, Showing Both Craters Mount Vesuvius Crater, Italy
Copyright and Courtesy of Dr. Tom Pfeiffer, Copyright and Courtesy of Stephen Hunt, Volcanologist and Manager of VolcanoDiscovery andAssociate Volcanologist, VolcanoDiscovery his Colleague Stephen Hunt

Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, Iceland, Showing Lava Flow into Glacier

Copyright and Courtesy of Stephen Hunt, Volcanologist, VolcanoDiscovery Associate

Simulation of Very Complex Systems

As is clear from the previous slides, there is an enormous variation in size, activity, frequency, consequence and type of volcanic eruption and earthquake. Consequently, there needs to be a large variety of models to represent these types. Classification of such types, their activities and frequency is necessary to be able to model them and to subsequently predict possible consequences of eruptions. Some types give rise to fairly predictable minor activities. Many, like supervolcanoes such as Yellowstone Caldera, do not! There remains much work to be done to improve the current situation. An interesting scenario is that of an earthquake swarm as is predicted for the Anatolian region of Turkey. Predictions suggest that possibly Istanbul is due next for a major earthquake in the near future.

Simulation of Earthquake Related Events

Major earthquakes occur around the world at the rate of several every year. However, they are mainly regional in a confined area, but often result in major damage and loss of life. The well recorded and documented Indian Ocean subduction zone earthquake of December 26, 2004 gave rise to massive damage and loss of life in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand. The following slides illustrate some of the damage done in Phuket, Thailand and the risks associated with coastal areas subject to earthquakes. Pre-event simulation of such events can be used to predict the consequences of tsunami attack of specific amplitude and direction arising from subduction zone earthquakes. This can allow some protective measures to be put in place.

Tsunami wave, arriving at Phang Nga Beach, Thailand, Dec. 2004

Phuket Beach, Thailand, with Damaged Palms One Year On

Shallow Sea at Risk, East Phuket, Thailand

Earthquake Area, Samos Greece

Simulation of Very Complex Man Made Systems

Examples of very complex man-made systems include: Self sustaining fresh water and salt supply for local coastal waters. A key feature is a complete life cycle including all cyclic routes A second example is the modelling and simulation of nuclear power plants. Key features here include: 1. Full approval by IAEA 2. Use for training purposes 3. Use for balancing the regular replacement of spent elements 4. Development of simulators for newer types of fast breeder reactors

Self Sustaining Fresh Water and Salt Supply for Local Coastal Waters.
Sea Water Sea Water

Wave Energy System

Offshore Energy Energy Offshore WindWind System System Desalination Plant Desalination Plant

Sea Water SeaWater

Fresh Water Fresh Water

High Salinity Water High Salinity Water

Reservoir Reservoir Evaporation

Naturally Evaporating Naturally Evaporating SaltSalt Pans Pans

Fresh Water Supply Usage Fresh Water Supply

Salt Supply for: Usage Food, Salt Supply Industry, for: Roads Industry, Food, Roads

Sewer

Original Full-Scope Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Paks, Hungary

Hungarian Nuclear Power Plant: Digital Operations Control Desk and Displays Courtesy: Janos Sebestian-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest

Hungarian Nuclear Power Plant: Instructors System Displays Courtesy: Janos Sebestian-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest

Conclusions
Rare Large Scale Events are Very Difficult to Model and Simulate However, it is becoming increasingly obvious that this is necessary for the survival of the Human Race. Advanced modelling and simulation can minimise death, damage and destruction. Future research into systems similar to the tsunami advanced warning system with prediction of consequences for specific areas, can be applied to other disaster scenarios. The lessons learned from the 2004 tsunami event can be extended into other areas of the World and to other types of major disaster event. Complex system simulations are valuable for use in system planning and development and for training purposes, especially for major incident recovery.