CS China Commodity Report 20111122

21 November 2011 Fixed Income Research
http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics
China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

Commodities Research
Research Analysts Ric Deverell +44 20 7883 2523 ric.deverell@credit-suisse.com Martin Yu + 44 20 7883 2150 martin.yu@credit-suisse.com Joachim Azria +1 212 325 4556 joachim.azria@credit-suisse.com Tom Kendall +44 20 7883 2432 tom.kendall@credit-suisse.com
Coal imports remain robust; nickel imports jump higher

The Chinese authorities release their monthly trade data in two stages. The second tranche for the month of October was released today, including imports for coal, LNG, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and various agricultural products. We observe that:1 Total coal imports fell compared to September, but remained robust after accounting for seasonality (Exhibit 1). 2011 year-to-October imports continue to stay slightly above 2010 year-to-October imports; LNG imports increased further in October, following its trend growth pattern since early 2008. Year-on-year YTD imports are 23.8% higher; Imports of unwrought copper and alloys continued to strengthen even further, confirming the large increase in imports of copper and copper products reported earlier in the month; Imports of unwrought nickel and alloys (Exhibit 2) rose to a new recent high (since the surge in the summer of 2009); Tin imports continued to rise higher despite the strong reading in September. However, lead and zinc imports trended sideways; In agriculture, corn imports reached a new high for the year (in nonseasonality adjusted terms), while sugar imports remained close to the new highs reached last month. Cotton imports continued to rise.
Exhibit 1: Chinese coal imports remain high

Millions of tonnes, seasonally adjusted
20.0 Exports 15.0 Imports Net Imports
Exhibit 2: Chinese nickel imports rise again

Thousands of tonnes, seasonally adjusted
50.0 Exports 40.0 Imports Net Imports
10.0
30.0
5.0
20.0
0.0
10.0
-5.0 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse
Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse
All discussion refers to seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise stated.
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE REFER TO https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.com.
21 November 2011
Exhibit 3: Summary of Trade Figures

Units as indicated below
Raw Figures
Coal Imports Total Coal Coking Coal Thermal Coal Exports Total Coal Iron Ore and Steel Imports Iron Ore and Concentrates Steel Products Steel Scrap Exports Iron Ore and Concentrates Steel Products Energy Imports Crude Oil Petroleum Refined Petroleum Products Middle Distillates Liquified Natural Gas Exports Crude Oil Petroleum Refined Petroleum Products Middle Distillates Scrap Imports Metal Scrap Copper Scrap Aluminum Scrap Base Metals Imports Copper & Copper Products Copper & Alloys Copper ore & concentrates Aluminium & Al Products Aluminium & Alloys Nickel & Alloys Zinc & Alloys Lead & Alloys Tin & Alloys Exports Copper & Copper Products Copper & Alloys Aluminium & Products Aluminium & Alloys Nickel & Alloys Zinc & Alloys Lead & Alloys Tin & Alloys Agriculture Imports Corn Wheat Soybean Rice Sugar Cotton Exports Corn Wheat Soybean Rice Sugar Cotton Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons 13.29 30.77 10.00 21.13 3.86 1.10 10.20 39.46 10.00 27.62 4.02 0.46 41.42 41.79 10.00 36.74 3.04 0.00 46.8% 114.1% 0.0% 8.4% -18.5% 4.3% 77.0% 40.4% 0.0% -15.7% -16.3% -63.2% 757.6% 31.7% 0.0% -29.5% -50.9% 0.0% 10.31 28.84 20.26 35.50 3.92 0.68 25.08 23.85 19.87 38.39 4.47 0.50 62.08 40.03 22.00 33.18 3.85 0.00 132.11 267.05 170.00 347.12 51.11 25.45 112.24 205.32 150.00 505.23 77.83 6.11 17.7% 30.1% 13.3% -31.3% -34.3% 316.4% Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons Thousand tons 244.55 128.66 4,510.00 58.41 420.00 210.00 181.22 177.66 4,130.00 26.95 470.00 250.00 304.41 60.65 3,810.00 18.24 340.00 250.00 -43.4% 42.6% -5.5% 290.1% 40.0% -12.5% -64.7% 94.5% -11.0% 10.3% 34.3% 25.0% 20.8% 395.6% 2.1% 109.8% 36.0% 150.0% 191.41 95.76 4,249.05 122.71 341.93 192.78 116.97 126.69 4,897.73 30.42 379.80 312.94 152.33 103.31 4,791.65 27.46 330.75 414.15 938.93 1,030.98 41,510.00 521.17 2,010.00 2,190.00 1,479.36 1,216.77 43,890.00 253.22 1,620.00 2,250.00 -36.5% -15.3% -5.4% 105.8% 24.1% -2.7% Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Units 41,800 469 340,000 62,227 2,758 3,800 616 1 August 40,612 2,608 290,000 60,715 2,335 3,443 83 3 September 34,992 342 290,000 64,650 2,977 2,406 504 0.0% October 4.8% -18.6% 25.9% 6.1% -17.6% 643.6% -66.6% -97.5% August -5.6% -13.1% 31.8% 10.2% -63.5% 223.9% -95.8% n/a September -4.2% -78.3% 16.0% -6.3% -35.1% 153.3% -84.6% 0.0% October 38,373 613 315,389 58,121 2,426 3,783 1,107 0 August 39,179 2,781 279,031 57,637 2,608 4,459 102 2 September 36,914 381 284,474 63,185 2,475 2,554 468 0.0% October 575,151 154,324 3,180,000 618,286 31,248 47,238 11,813 977 2011 452,912 25,721 2,380,000 601,877 48,641 36,885 21,269 108 2010 27.0% 500.0% 33.6% 2.7% -35.8% 28.1% -44.5% 804.6% % diff Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons 340,398 270,470 680,000 70,983 22,463 16,902 39,766 3,679 1,605 380,526 314,008 560,000 66,163 20,161 19,698 42,881 5,074 3,791 383,507 330,276 520,000 60,186 17,707 24,616 39,492 4,592 4,122 -10.3% -10.8% 44.7% -2.3% 0.8% -7.3% -20.2% -49.0% -6.8% 3.3% 7.8% -17.6% 0.6% 8.5% 24.7% 3.0% -32.6% 157.2% 40.2% 59.7% 10.6% -14.9% -30.7% 29.3% 21.3% 6.2% 429.8% 347,078 291,393 714,779 67,309 18,858 18,111 40,278 4,506 1,751 345,349 318,208 496,524 68,348 23,234 18,466 40,216 5,083 3,256 459,491 352,932 604,055 67,745 21,585 23,611 46,817 6,036 4,693 3,112,428 2,456,357 5,170,000 728,054 240,888 179,519 392,770 42,352 15,909 3,596,254 2,829,254 5,430,000 796,036 306,526 155,046 393,023 49,604 16,496 -13.5% -13.2% -4.8% -8.5% -21.4% 15.8% -0.1% -14.6% -3.6% Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons Units 1,100,000 380,000 200,000 August 1,340,000 420,000 220,000 September 1,160,000 380,000 220,000 October -7.6% -5.0% -23.1% August 17.5% 2.4% -8.3% September 50.6% 22.6% 15.8% October 1,049,089 344,719 176,619 August 1,216,327 362,626 178,175 September 1,324,072 414,228 232,734 October 11,290,000 3,810,000 2,110,000 2011 10,740,000 3,520,000 2,330,000 2010 5.1% 8.2% -9.4% % diff Million tons Million tons Million tons Units 0.1200 2.1700 0.7859 August 0.3300 2.2400 0.6467 September 0.1100 1.5900 0.0000 October -52.0% 4.8% -10.5% August -15.4% 7.2% -27.0% September -57.7% -15.4% 0.0% October 0.1279 2.0531 0.7925 August 0.3493 2.3212 0.6787 September 0.0854 1.7206 0.0000 October 2.0700 21.4100 6.7025 2011 2.2100 22.9300 8.6272 2010 -6.3% -6.6% -22.3% % diff Million tons Million tons Million tons Million tons 21.0400 3.4100 0.7840 1.0500 20.4500 2.7700 0.7188 1.1500 20.8000 2.9100 0.0000 0.8500 0.7% 33.2% 63.8% 5.0% -12.2% -1.1% 27.3% 17.3% 26.9% 7.0% 0.0% 2.4% 20.1760 3.6007 0.7148 0.8611 19.3027 3.1450 0.7280 0.8892 21.4662 3.8497 0.0000 0.9376 207.9300 33.2100 5.6594 9.4000 197.5300 29.4100 4.7976 7.5900 5.3% 12.9% 18.0% 23.8% Million tons Million tons Units 0.0008 4.1900 August 0.0008 4.2100 September 0.0003 3.8200 October -93.0% 49.6% August n/a 39.9% September -89.4% 33.6% October 0.0012 3.7796 August 0.0012 3.6673 September 0.0005 3.8118 October 0.0040 40.9900 2011 0.0152 36.8000 2010 -73.6% 11.4% % diff Million tons Million tons Million tons 59.0900 1.3500 0.5200 60.5700 1.3300 0.7000 49.9400 1.2000 0.5600 32.5% 0.0% -1.9% 15.2% 0.8% 42.9% 9.2% 5.3% 115.4% 61.4740 1.2981 0.4893 56.9470 1.2168 0.6299 59.1372 1.3103 0.7892 558.6800 13.1600 5.3400 503.6200 13.6500 4.8400 10.9% -3.6% 10.3% Million tons Units 1.2500 August 1.2100 September 0.7900 October -26.5% August -34.9% September -34.7% October 1.1805 August 1.0240 September 0.8117 October 12.9100 2011 16.3000 2010 -20.8% % diff Million tons Million tons Million tons 16.5900 3.2843 13.3032 19.1200 3.8908 15.2271 15.6900 0.0000 0.0000 25.1% -15.3% 41.7% 24.8% -6.6% 36.5% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9382 3.1517 13.3800 18.1809 3.3642 13.9225 17.4941 0.0000 0.0000 139.7000 30.3807 93.6250 135.0200 33.5313 89.1679 3.5% -9.4% 5.0% Units August September October
Year on Year Change

August September October
Seasonally adjusted
August September October 2011
Year to date*
2010 % diff
*Year to date figures equate months with latest data to make both years comparable, based on raw figures. Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
21 November 2011
China Commodity Trade Report

Coal
Total Coal (millions of tonnes) 20 Exports Imports Net Imports Total Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 20 Exports Imports Net Imports
15
15
10
10
-5 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-5 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration
Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Coking Coal (millions of tonnes) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jan-07
Source: GTIS
Coking Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted Imports 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jan-07
Source: GTIS, Credit Suisse
Imports
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Thermal Coal (millions of tonnes) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-07
Source: GTIS
Thermal Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted Imports 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-07
Source: GTIS, Credit Suisse
Imports
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
21 November 2011

Iron Ore and Steel

Iron Ore and Concentrates (millions of tonnes) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 Imports Iron Ore and Concentrates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Steel Products (millions of tonnes) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 Exports Imports Net Imports
Steel Products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Exports Imports Net Imports
2.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 2007 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) 2.0 Imports
Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 2.0 Imports
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
21 November 2011

Crude and Refined Petroleum

Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) 25 Exports Imports Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 25 Exports Imports
20
20
15
15
10
10
0 2007
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) 5.0 Exports Imports
Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 5.0 Exports Imports
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0 2007
0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) Net Imports 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) Net Imports 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
21 November 2011

Middle Distillates and LNG

Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2007 Exports Imports Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2007 Exports Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) Imports 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011
Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted Imports 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011
Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) Net Imports 1.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) Net Imports 1.4 1.2 2008 2009 2010 2011
1.0 1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.5 0.2 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
0.0
-1.0
21 November 2011

Scrap
Total Metal Scrap (metric tonnes) 2,500,000 Imports Total Metal Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted 2,500,000 Imports
2,000,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
500,000
0 2008 2009 2010 2011
0 2008 2009 2010 2011
Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Imports
Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Imports
200,000 100,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011
200,000 100,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011
Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 Imports
Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Imports
200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 100,000 50,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011
21 November 2011

Copper
Copper & Copper Products (metric tons) 500,000 Exports Imports Net Imports Copper & Copper Products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted 500,000 Exports Imports Net Imports
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Unwrought Copper & Alloys (metric tons) 500,000 Exports Imports Net Imports
Unwrought Copper & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted 500,000 Exports Imports Net Imports
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Copper Ores & Concentrates (metric tons) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2007 Imports
Copper Ores & Concentrates (metric tons) seasonally adjusted 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2007 Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
21 November 2011

Aluminium and Nickel

Unwrought Aluminium & Aluminium Products (metric tons) 460,000 360,000 260,000 160,000 60,000 -40,000 -140,000 -240,000 -340,000 2007 Exports Imports Net Imports Unwrought Aluminium & Aluminium Products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted 460,000 360,000 260,000 160,000 60,000 -40,000 -140,000 -240,000 -340,000 2007 Exports Imports Net Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Unwrought Aluminium & Alloys (metric tons) Exports 450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 50,000 -50,000 -150,000 2007 Imports Net Imports
Unwrought Aluminium & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted Exports 450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 50,000 -50,000 -150,000 2007 Imports Net Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Unwrought Nickel & Alloys (metric tons) 50,000 Exports Imports Net Imports
Unwrought Nickel & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted 50,000 Exports Imports Net Imports
40,000
40,000
30,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administration
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
21 November 2011

Zinc, Lead and Tin

Unwrought Zinc & Alloys (metric tons) 150,000 Exports Imports Net Imports Unwrought Zinc & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted 150,000 Exports Imports Net Imports
110,000
110,000
70,000
70,000
30,000
30,000
-10,000
-10,000
-50,000 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-50,000 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Unwrought Lead & Alloys (metric tons) Exports 50,000 Imports Net Imports
Unwrought Lead & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted Exports 50,000 Imports Net Imports
30,000
30,000
10,000
10,000
-10,000
-10,000
-30,000
-30,000
-50,000 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-50,000 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Unwrought Tin & Alloys (metric tons) Exports 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 2007 Imports Net Imports
Unwrought Tin & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted Exports 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 2007 Imports Net Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
21 November 2011

Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

Corn (thousands of tonnes) Exports 1,300 Imports Net Imports 1,300 Corn (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted Exports Imports Net Imports
800
800
300
300
-200
-200
-700
-700
-1,200 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-1,200 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Wheat (thousands of tonnes) Exports 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 2007 Imports Net Imports
Wheat (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted Exports 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 2007 Imports Net Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Soybean (thousands of tonnes) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 Exports Imports Net Imports
Soybean (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 Exports Imports Net Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
11
21 November 2011

Rice, Sugar and Cotton

Rice (thousands of tonnes) Exports 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 2007 Imports Net Imports Rice (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 2007 Exports Imports Net Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sugar (thousands of tonnes) 500 Exports Imports Net Imports
Sugar (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 400 350 Exports Imports Net Imports
400 300 300 250 200 200 150 100 100 50 0 0 -100 2007 -50 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cotton (thousands of tonnes) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Exports Imports Net Imports
Cotton (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted 600 Exports Imports Net Imports
500
400
300
200
100
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
12
21 November 2011

Chinese Net Imports (Exports) as Percentage of Global Imports 2010*

Crude Oil China 12% Petroleum Products China 4% Iron and Steel (SITC 67) China 3%
Rest of World 88%
Rest of World 96%
Rest of World 97%
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BP Statistics, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
Iron ore and concentrates
Coal China 12%
Copper
China 22%
Rest of World 37%
China 63% Rest of World 88% Rest of World 78%
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
Aluminum China 5%
Soybeans
Cotton
China 31% Rest of World 42% China 58% Rest of World 69% Rest of World 95%
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, UNCTAD, USDA, Credit Suisse *Red pie charts indicate net imports, blue pie charts indicate net exports
13
21 November 2011

Chinese Imports as Percentage of Global Imports

Crude Oil, Oil Products, Natural Gas and Coal 16% Crude Oil 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1995 5% 20% Oil Products Natural Gas Coal 25% Copper, Aluminum and Lead 30% Copper Aluminum Lead
15%
10%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0% 1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BP Statistical Yearbook, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
Source: UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
Nickel, Zinc and Tin 30% Nickel 25% Zinc Tin
Iron Ore & Concentrates, Iron & Steel 70% 60% 50% 40% Iron Ore & Concentrates Iron & Steel
20%
15% 30% 10% 20% 10% 0% 1995
5%
0% 1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Soybean, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal 70% Soybean 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal
Sugar, Corn, Wheat and Cotton 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 Sugar Corn Wheat Cotton
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, USDA, Credit Suisse
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, USDA, Credit Suisse
14
GLOBAL COMMODITIES RESEARCH

Ric Deverell, Director Global Head of Commodities Research +44 20 7883 2523 ric.deverell@credit-suisse.com Eric Miller, Managing Director Global Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research +1 212 538 6480 eric.miller.3@credit-suisse.com
LONDON
Tom Kendall, Vice President +44 20 7883 2432 tom.kendall@credit-suisse.com Marcus Garvey, Analyst +44 20 7883 4787 marcus.garvey@credit-suisse.com
One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, United Kingdom
Martin Yu, Analyst +44 20 7883 2150 martin.yu@credit-suisse.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Cilline Bain, Associate +44 20 7888 7174 cilline.bain@credit-suisse.com
NEW YORK
Jan Stuart, Managing Director Head of Energy +1 212 325 1013 jan.stuart@credit-suisse.com Joachim Azria, Associate +1 212 325 4556 joachim.azria@credit-suisse.com
11 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010
Stefan Revielle, Associate +1 212 538 6802 stefan.revielle@credit-suisse.com
SINGAPORE
Andrew Shaw, Director +65 6212 4244 andrew.shaw@credit-suisse.com Ivan Szpakowski, Associate +65 6212 3534 ivan.szpakowski@credit-suisse.com
One Raffles Link, Singapore 039393
Disclosure Appendix
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CS China Commodity Report 20111122

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CS China Commodity Report 20111122

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21 November 2011 Fixed Income Research

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

Coal imports remain robust; nickel imports jump higher

Exhibit 1: Chinese coal imports remain high

Exhibit 2: Chinese nickel imports rise again

-5.0 2008 2009 2010 2011

0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse

Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse

All discussion refers to seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise stated.

Exhibit 3: Summary of Trade Figures

Year on Year Change

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade Report

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade Report

Iron Ore and Steel

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) 2.0 Imports

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade Report

Crude and Refined Petroleum

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) 5.0 Exports Imports

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade Report

Middle Distillates and LNG

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

1.0 1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.5 0.2 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade Report

0 2008 2009 2010 2011

0 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Imports

200,000 100,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011

200,000 100,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 Imports

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade Report

Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration