Price Elasticity of Demand

An important aspect of a product's demand curve is how much the quantity demanded changes when the price changes. The economic measure of this response is the price elasticity of demand. Price elasticity of demand is calculated by dividing the proportionate change in quantity demanded by the proportionate change in price. Proportionate (or percentage) changes are used so that the elasticity is a unit-less value and does not depend on the types of measures used (e.g. kilograms, pounds, etc). As an example, if a 2% increase in price resulted in a 1% decrease in quantity demanded, the price elasticity of demand would be equal to approximately 0.5. It is not exactly 0.5 because of the specific definition for elasticity uses the average of the initial and final values when calculating percentage change. When the elasticity is calculated over a certain arc or section of the demand curve, it is referred to as the arc elasticity and is defined as the magnitude (absolute value) of the following: Q2 - Q1 ----------------------( Q1 + Q2 ) / 2 ------------------------------P2 - P1 ----------------------( P1 + P2 ) / 2 where Q1 Q2 P1 P2 = = = = Initial quantity Final quantity Initial price Final price

The average values for quantity and price are used so that the elasticity will be the same whether calculated going from lower price to higher price or from higher price to lower price. For example, going from $8 to $10 is a 25% increase in price, but going from $10 to $8 is only a 20% decrease in price. This asymmetry is eliminated by using the average price as the basis for the percentage change in both cases. For slightly easier calculations, the formula for arc elasticity can be rewritten as: ( Q2 - Q1 ) ( P2 + P1 ) ( Q2 + Q1 ) ( P2 - P1 )

To better understand the price elasticity of demand, it is worthwhile to consider different ranges of values.

Elasticity > 1
In this case, the change in quantity demanded is proportionately larger than the change in price. This means that an increase in price would result in a decrease in revenue, and a decrease in price would result in an increase in revenue. In the extreme case of near infinite elasticity, the demand curve would be nearly horizontal, meaning than the quantity demanded is extremely sensitive to changes in price. The case of infinite elasticity is described as being perfectly elastic and is illustrated below: Perfectly Elastic Demand Curve

From this demand curve it is easy to visualize how an extremely small change in price would result in an infinitely large shift in quantity demanded.

Elasticity < 1
In this case, the change in quantity demanded is proportionately smaller than the change in price. An increase in price would result in an increase in revenue, and a decrease in price would result in a decrease in revenue. In the extreme case of elasticity near 0, the demand curve would be nearly vertical, and the quantity demanded would be almost independent of price. The case of zero elasticity is described as being perfectly inelastic.

Perfectly Inelastic Demand Curve

From this demand curve, it is easy to visualize how even a very large change in price would have no impact on quantity demanded.

Elasticity = 1
This case is referred to as unitary elasticity. The change in quantity demanded is in the same proportion as the change in price. A change in price in either direction therefore would result in no change in revenue. Applications of Price Elasticity of Demand The price elasticity of demand can be applied to a variety of problems in which one wants to know the expected change in quantity demanded or revenue given a contemplated change in price. For example, a state automobile registration authority considers a price hike in personalized "vanity" license plates. The current annual price is 35 per year, and the registration office is considering increasing the price to $40 per year in an effort to increase revenue. Suppose that the registration office knows that the price elasticity of demand from 35 to 40 is 1.3. Because the elasticity is greater than one over the price range of interest, we know that an increase in price actually would decrease the revenue collected by the automobile registration authority, so the price hike would be unwise.

Factors Influencing the Price Elasticity of Demand:

The price elasticity of demand for a particular demand curve is influenced by the following factors: 1. Availability of substitutes: the greater the number of substitute products, the greater the elasticity. 2. Degree of necessity or luxury: luxury products tend to have greater elasticity than necessities. Some products that initially have a low degree of necessity are habit forming and can become "necessities" to some consumers. 3. Proportion of income required by the item: products requiring a larger portion of the consumer's income tend to have greater elasticity. 4. Time period considered: elasticity tends to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behavoir to price changes. 5. Permanent or temporary price change: a one-day sale will result in a different response than a permanent price decrease of the same magnitude. 6. Price points: decreasing the price from 2.00 to 1.99 may result in greater increase in quantity demanded than decreasing it from 1.99 to 1.98.

What is a demand forecast? A demand forecast is the prediction of what will happen to your company's existing product sales. It would be best to determine the demand forecast using a multi-functional approach. The inputs from sales and marketing, finance, and production should be considered. The final demand forecast is the consensus of all participating managers. You may also want to put up a Sales and Operations Planning group composed of representatives from the different departments that will be tasked to prepare the demand forecast. Determination of the demand forecasts is done through the following steps: Determine the use of the forecast Select the items to be forecast Determine the time horizon of the forecast Select the forecasting model(s) Gather the data Make the forecast Validate and implement results

Simple Survey Method: For forecasting the demand for existing product, such survey methods are often employed. In this set of methods, we may undertake the following exercise. 1) Experts Opinion Poll: In this method, the experts on the particular product whose demand is under study are requested to give their opinion or feel about the product. These experts, dealing in the same or similar product, are able to predict the likely sales of a given product in future periods under different conditions based on their experience. If the number of such experts is large and their experience-based reactions are different, then an average-simple or weighted is found to lead to unique forecasts. Sometimes this method is also called the hunch method but it replaces analysis by opinions and it can thus turn out to be highly subjective in nature. 2) Reasoned Opinion-Delphi Technique: This is a variant of the opinion poll method. Here is an attempt to arrive at a consensus in an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly until the responses appear to converge along a single line. The participants are supplied with responses to previous questions (including seasonings from others in the group by a coordinator or a leader or operator of some sort). Such feedback may result in an expert revising his earlier opinion. This may lead to a narrowing down of the divergent views (of the experts) expressed earlier. The Delphi Techniques, followed by the Greeks earlier, thus generates reasoned opinion in place of unstructured opinion; but this is still a poor proxy for market behavior of economic variables. 3) Consumers Survey- Complete Enumeration Method: Under this, the forecaster undertakes a complete survey of all consumers whose demand he intends to forecast, Once this information is collected, the sales forecasts are obtained by simply adding the probable demands of all consumers. The principle merit of this method is that the forecaster does not introduce any bias or value judgment of his own. He simply records the data and aggregates. But it is a very tedious and cumbersome process; it is not feasible where a large number of consumers are involved. Moreover if the data are wrongly recorded, this method will be totally useless. 4) Consumer Survey-Sample Survey Method: Under this method, the forecaster selects a few consuming units out of the relevant population and then collects data on their probable demands for the product during the forecast period. The total demand of sample units is

finally blown up to generate the total demand forecast. Compared to the former survey, this method is less tedious and less costly, and subject to less data error; but the choice of sample is very critical. If the sample is properly chosen, then it will yield dependable results; otherwise there may be sampling error. The sampling error can decrease with every increase in sample size 5) End-user Method of Consumers Survey: Under this method, the sales of a product are projected through a survey of its end-users. A product is used for final consumption or as an intermediate product in the production of other goods in the domestic market, or it may be exported as well as imported. The demands for final consumption and exports net of imports are estimated through some other forecasting method, and its demand for intermediate use is estimated through a survey of its user industries. Complex Statistical Methods: We shall now move from simple to complex set of methods of demand forecasting. Such methods are taken usually from statistics. As such, you may be quite familiar with some the statistical tools and techniques, as a part of quantitative methods for business decisions. (1) Time series analysis or trend method: Under this method, the time series data on the under forecast are used to fit a trend line or curve either graphically or through statistical method of Least Squares. The trend line is worked out by fitting a trend equation to time series data with the aid of an estimation method. The trend equation could take either a linear or any kind of non-linear form. The trend method outlined above often yields a dependable forecast. The advantage in this method is that it does not require the formal knowledge of economic theory and the market, it only needs the time series data. The only limitation in this method is that it assumes that the past is repeated in future. Also, it is an appropriate method for long-run forecasts, but inappropriate for short-run forecasts. Sometimes the time series analysis may not reveal a significant trend of any kind. In that case, the moving average method or exponentially weighted moving average method is used to smoothen the series. (2) Barometric Techniques or Lead-Lag indicators method: This consists in discovering a set of series of some variables which exhibit a close association in their movement over a period or time. For example, it shows the movement of agricultural income (AY series) and the sale of tractors (ST series). The movement of AY is similar to that of ST, but the movement in ST takes place after a years time lag

compared to the movement in AY. Thus if one knows the direction of the movement in agriculture income (AY), one can predict the direction of movement of tractors sale (ST) for the next year. Thus agricultural income (AY) may be used as a barometer (a leading indicator) to help the short-term forecast for the sale of tractors. Generally, this barometric method has been used in some of the developed countries for predicting business cycles situation. For this purpose, some countries construct what are known as diffusion indices by combining the movement of a number of leading series in the economy so that turning points in business activity could be discovered well in advance. Some of the limitations of this method may be noted however. The leading indicator method does not tell you anything about the magnitude of the change that can be expected in the lagging series, but only the direction of change. Also, the lead period itself may change overtime. Through our estimation we may find out the best-fitted lag period on the past data, but the same may not be true for the future. Finally, it may not be always possible to find out the leading, lagging or coincident indicators of the variable for which a demand forecast is being attempted. 3) Correlation and Regression: These involve the use of econometric methods to determine the nature and degree of association between/among a set of variables. Econometrics, you may recall, is the use of economic theory, statistical analysis and mathematical functions to determine the relationship between a dependent variable (say, sales) and one or more independent variables (like price, income, advertisement etc.). The relationship may be expressed in the form of a demand function, as we have seen earlier. Such relationships, based on past data can be used for forecasting. The analysis can be carried with varying degrees of complexity. Here we shall not get into the methods of finding out correlation coefficient or regression equation; you must have covered those statistical techniques as a part of quantitative methods. Similarly, we shall not go into the question of economic theory. We shall concentrate simply on the use of these econometric techniques in forecasting. We are on the realm of multiple regression and multiple correlation. The form of the equation may be: DX = a + b1 A + b2PX + b3Py You know that the regression coefficients b1, b2, b3 and b4 are the components of relevant elasticity of demand. For example, b1 is a component of price elasticity of demand. The reflect the direction as well as proportion of change in demand for x as a result of a change in

any of its explanatory variables. For example, b2< 0 suggest that DX and PX are inversely related; b4 > 0 suggest that x and y are substitutes; b3 > 0 suggest that x is a normal commodity with commodity with positive income-effect. Given the estimated value of and bi, you may forecast the expected sales (DX), if you know the future values of explanatory variables like own price (PX), related price (Py), income (B) and advertisement (A). Lastly, you may also recall that the statistics R2 (Co-efficient of determination) gives the measure of goodness of fit. The closer it is to unity, the better is the fit, and that way you get a more reliable forecast. The principle advantage of this method is that it is prescriptive as well descriptive. That is, besides generating demand forecast, it explains why the demand is what it is. In other words, this technique has got both explanatory and predictive value. The regression method is neither mechanistic like the trend method nor subjective like the opinion poll method. In this method of forecasting, you may use not only time-series data but also cross section data. The only precaution you need to take is that data analysis should be based on the logic of economic theory. (4) Simultaneous Equations Method: Here is a very sophisticated method of forecasting. It is also known as the complete system approach or econometric model building. In your earlier units, we have made reference to such econometric models. Presently we do not intend to get into the details of this method because it is a subject by itself. Moreover, this method is normally used in macro-level forecasting for the economy as a whole; in this course, our focus is limited to micro elements only. Of course, you, as corporate managers, should know the basic elements in such an approach. The method is indeed very complicated. However, in the days of computer, when package programmes are available, this method can be used easily to derive meaningful forecasts. The principle advantage in this method is that the forecaster needs to estimate the future values of only the exogenous variables unlike the regression method where he has to predict the future values of all, endogenous and exogenous variables affecting the variable under forecast. The values of exogenous variables are easier to predict than those of the endogenous variables. However, such econometric models have limitations, similar to that of regression method.