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Exhibit 1
U. S. Economic Environment
Q4 to Q4
Real GDP (qoq % saar) Real Consumer Spending (qoq % saar) Real Business Equipment & Software (qoq % saar) Core PCE Inflation ( qoq % saar) Unemployment Rate (avg %) Federal Funds Target (%) S&P 500 Operating Earnings (yoy %) S&P 500 Operating EPS ($)
(a) Year-end actual/forecasts source: BEA, Bloomberg, Macroeconomic Advisors, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
2010 3.4 3.0 16.6 1.0 9.6 (a) 0.25 (a) 36.6 85.5
2011 1.9 1.7 8.0 1.8 9.0 (a) 0.25 (a) 13.5 97.0
2012 2.2 2.0 7.5 1.5 9.0 (a) 0.25 (a) 5.0 102.0
Exhibit 2
14 13 12 11 10
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
82
Saving - Monthly Data from 12/80 to 8/11, Debt - Quarterly Data to 11:q2 Debt Service Payments as a % of Disposable Personal Income (left scale) Personal Saving Rate (right scale)
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source:Federal ReserveBoard,BEA,andOmegaAdvisors,Inc.
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60
98
Quarterly Data from 97:q4 to 11:q2 Households Liquid Assets as a % of Household Liabilities
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60
C&I 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Quarterly Data from 90:q3 to 11:q3 Net % of Banks Easing Standards for C&I Loans, avg of Small, Medium & Large Bus. Net Percent of Banks Indicate More Willing to Make Consumer Loans
Source: FRB Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 3
Banking system has gone from insolvency to strong capital ratios. No weak/opaque shadow banking system to contend with. The financial condition of Corporate America is excellent. Profit and revenue growth are still good as is growth in dividends and share buybacks. Business inventories are in excellent shape. There is no bubble in housing as in 2008 and most cyclical sectors of the economy are at a very low percentage of GDP. Household debt/GDP, while still high, has dropped from 95.4% to 85.1%. Debt service ratio substantially improved. The consumer savings rate has gone from 1% to 5.0%. Lower dollar should be a plus for exports. Oil price decline from $115 to $77 WTI ($130 to $102 Brent) per barrel positive for consumers and economy generally. FED policy of zero interest rates will ultimately work. Tame wages and decent productivity. Decent M&A activity and large pool of private equity capital. Investors are conservatively postured. Market valuation very appealing both absolute and particularly relative to alternatives (financial repression).
Exhibit 4 Euro Zone Will Be Okay ? We have been very disappointed in the tardiness and substance of policies offered by the eurozone governments and the ECB to address the European sovereign-debt issue. This tardiness and lack of substance has taken its toll on risk assets. Nonetheless, we do believe that governments and the central bank in Europe, for now, will address the sovereign-debt issue. EFSF permitted to buy weak peripheral debt in the primary and secondary markets EFSF permitted to extend loans to shore up bank balance sheets EFSF/IMF likely to fund Greece through mid-2014 ECB purchasing Italian and Spanish debt ECB providing unlimited liquidity to banks ECB moderating its tight money policy ECB purchasing covered bonds from banks, aiding bank funding Asian governments likely to support euro-zone sovereign debt EFSF lending capacity lifted to 440 billion and likely to increase further Euro-zone bank re-capitalizations coming Increased dollar swap funding available to euro-zone banks
Note: EFSF European Financial Stability Fund
Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Exhibit 6
Historical Bear Market Cycles
% Change Peak to Trough (20.6)% (14.6) (20.7) (13.7) (28.0) (22.2) (32.9) (47.7) (19.1) (27.1) (33.5) (19.9) (19.3) (49.1) (56.8) (28.3)% (19.4) Length of Peak to Trough (months) 12 8 17 15 6 8 19 21 15 21 4 3 1 31 17 13.2 P/E Contraction Peak to Trough (38.4)% (18.3) (15.3) (10.3) (33.8) (26.7) (31.2) (63.2) (26.6) (24.7) (41.2) (20.1) (19.3) (14.9) (48.3)* (28.8)% (21.8)
Peak S&P 500 Date Jun 1948 Dec 1952 Jul 1956 Jul 1959 Dec 1961 Jan 1966 Nov 1968 Dec 1972 Dec 1976 Nov 1980 Aug 1987 Jul 1990 Jul 1998 Mar 2000 Oct 2007 Average Apr 2011 17.06 26.59 49.74 60.62 72.64 94.06 108.37 119.12 107.46 140.52 336.77 368.95 1186.75 1527.46 1565.15 1363.61
Trough Date S&P 500 Jun 1949 Aug 1953 Dec 1957 Oct 1960 Jun 1962 Sep 1966 Jun 1970 Sep 1974 Mar 1978 Aug 1982 Dec 1987 Oct 1990 Aug 1998 Oct 2002 Mar 2009 Current(a) 13.55 22.71 39.42 52.30 52.32 73.20 72.72 62.28 86.90 102.42 223.92 295.46 957.28 776.77 676.53 1099.23
*Excluding financial sector write-downs (a) As of October 3, 2011 Source: Standard & Poor's, UBS Investment Research, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 7
Date May 1949 Aug 1953 Aug 1957 Aug 1959 Aug 1969 Aug 1974 Feb 1980 Nov 1981 May 1989 Aug 2000 May 2007
Date Nov 1949 Nov 1953 Aug 1958 May 1961 Nov 1970 Aug 1975 Aug 1980 Feb 1983 Nov 1991 Feb 2002 Aug 2009
-15.1
Exhibit 8
Exhibit 9
%
6 4 2 0
6 4 2 0
-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Quarterly Data from 69:q4 to 11:q2
-2 -4 -6 -8 -10
PercentagePoints
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 70 72 74 76 78 80
PercentagePoints
4 2 0 -2 -4
82 84 86 88
90 92 94
96 98 00 02
04 06 08 10
-6
CBO NAIRU (Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) less the Unemployment Rate
Source: CBO, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 10
In this same period 10 year U.S. Government Bond, yielded an average of 6.67%
(a) S&P 500 P/E on 12-month forward operating earnings (b) As of October 6, 2011. 12-month forward operating earnings of $100.0 Source: BLS, Standard & Poor's, T homson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 11
Valuation: Attractive versus Core Inflation, Real Bond Rate, and Corporate Bond
(Monthly Data from 1960 to 2009)
22 20
22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6
Average P/E
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 < 1.5% 1.5 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.5 2.5 to 3.5 3.5 to 4.5 4.5 to 6.0 6.0 to 8.0 >8.0%
Average P/E
18 16
Average P/E
Current
14 12 10 8
Average P/E
20
Average P/E
20 18
Average P/E
18 16 14 12 10 8
Source: Standard and Poor's, Thomson Reuters, FRB, BEA, Moody's, and Omega Advisors, Inc
Exhibit 12
3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
-1 SD +1 SD Fair Value
3 2 1 0 -1
Undervalued
-2 -3
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Monthly Data from 1/71 to 10/6/11
20 15 10 5 0 -5
20 15 10 5 0
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Monthly Data from 1/60 to 10/6/11 Earnings Yield on Trend Earnings for the S&P 500 - 10-year Tips Yield
Source:Standard and Poor's, Bloomberg, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
-5
Exhibit 13
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8
6 4 2
Average
0
-1 SD
-2 -4 -6 -8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Monthly Data from 1/90 to 10/6/11
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield less VIX Adjusted 10-year Treasury Yield
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 14
P/E and earnings yield are based on monthend S&P 500 price and 4-quarter trailingoperatingEPS. Treasuruy and corp. bond are average monthly yield.
Source: NBER, St andard & Poor's, T homson/Reut ers, FRB, M oody's, BLS, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
At historical average of earnings yield less investment-grade corp.-bond yield, S&P 500 is discounting 2012 EPS of about $60. At 2009 earnings yield less investment-grade corp.-bond yield, S&P 500 is discounting 2012 EPS of about $72.
Exhibit 15
Source: Standard and Poor's, FRB, Bloomberg, Moody's, Thomson Reuters, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 16
2000 1503 1005 508
S&P 500
10
54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 S&P 500 - Monthly Data from 7/53 to 9/11 S&P 500, shaded areas were recessions S&P 500 Long-term Trend
Source: Standard and Poor's and Omega Advisors, Inc.
10
20 15 10 5 0 -5
20 15 10 5 0 -5
35
40
Annual Data from 1936 to 9/30/11 S&P 500 10-year Rolling Annualized Total Return (%)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Exhibit 17
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
S&P 500 Free Cash Flow Yield - Moody's Investment-Grade Corp. Bond Yield
Source: Standard and Poor's, UBS, Moody's, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 18
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Monthly Data from 12/84 to 10/6/11
Average '70 to '09 10/6 on $82
35 30 25 20
15 10 5
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Avg 70 to 09
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Monthly Data from 1970 to 10/6/11
-6
S&P 500 Earnings Yield (12M forward operating EPS) less 10-Year Gov't Bond Yield
Source: FRB, Standard & Poor's, Thomson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 19
30
30
25
25
20
3/9/09 @19.3%
20
15
15
10
@8.85%
10
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Weekly Data from Sept. 2005 to 10/6/11 The Avg. Yield Weighted by Par, all Bonds in FINRA-Bloomberg US Corp. Bond Index (NBBHYL)
Source: FINRA-Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 20
(a) As of October 6, 2011 Source: Standard and Poor's, Factset, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 21
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Dividend Yield - Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11, Treasury - Monthly Data from 1953 to 9/11
Exhibit 22
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Yield
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 38 41 44
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Moody's BAA Corporate Bond Yield
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
Exhibit 23
20
20
15
15
10
10
-5
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
-5
GDP - Quarterly Data from 79:q4 to 11:q2, Yield - Monthly Data to 9/11
Exhibit 24
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 8/16/'82
-5.37
10 8
Euphoria
6 4 2 0 -2
Panic
10/9/'02 -5.76
-4
11/20/'08 -6 -5.54 10/4/'11 -6.61
-8
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-8
Daily Data from 1982 to 10/6/11 Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index, incl. Equity and Credit
Source: Credit Suisse Fixed Income Research, Thomson Reuters Datastream, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 26 Presidential Platform 1. 2. 3. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Provide every returning soldier with a free four year college education or trade school of their choice. Set up a peace time WPA effort to channel a portion of the saving into rebuilding US infrastructure. Unleash the domestic energy industry to develop domestic energy supplies and reserves. This will create employment and reduce our dependency on foreign suppliers. Government spending should be limited to a growth rate at least 1% below the level of nominal GDP growth. Freeze entitlements and raise the social security retirement age to 70 with an exception of those that work at hard labor. 10% income tax surcharge for three years on those that earn over $500,000 per year. 5% VAT tax to get at the underground economy and deal with the deficit. Tackle health care in a serious way. Reinstate the Up-Tick rule for short sales, ban or curtail High Frequency trading and limit CDS trading to those that own the underlying bonds. The high frequency traders are turning the best capital market in the world into a casino and scaring the public. This is not in the public interest.
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Exhibit 27
Real GDP GDP Price Deflator Nominal GDP Profits Dividend and Buyback Yield Total Return S&P 500 10 Year T -Bond *constant P/E
Next Decade 2%-2.5% 2-2.5 4.0 -5.0 4-5 3-4 7-9* Negative
Exhibit 28
14
Profit Margin
14
12
12
10
Average
10
63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Quarterly Data from 62:q4 to 11:q2 Pretax Corporate Profits as a % of Nominal GDP
Source: BEA, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Exhibit 29
Exhibit 30
Description APPLE INC BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP KKR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LLC QUALCOMM INC SLM CORP ACE LTD TRANSOCEAN LTD ENERGY XXI BERMUDA E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP SUNOCO INC
10/14/11 Price 422.00 5.69 7.92 54.98 13.54 63.15 50.42 26.87 9.80 35.33
2011 EPS 29.00 0.72 1.55 3.28 1.85 6.40 3.40 2.50 0.83 0.75 PE 14.6 7.9 5.1 16.8 7.3 9.9 14.8 10.7 11.8 47.1 EPS 40.00 0.83 1.65 4.16 1.90 7.40 5.85 3.00 1.05 2.75
2012 PE 10.6 6.9 4.8 13.2 7.1 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.3 12.8
Div. Yield 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 1.6% 3.0% 2.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%
Growth Rate 3 to 5 yrs 18.0% 16.0% 7.0% 16.0% 5.0% 7.0% 12.0% 18.0% 36.0% 5.0%
NOTES TO INVESTMENT RESULTS This material is provided for any securit y. educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of offer to buy
This material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad -based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as investment advice. This information may not be current and Omega has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. We have relied u and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information from third party sources. Any reference to a specific company does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities of such company. Opinion s and views expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. They involve a number of assumptions that may not prove to be valid so that actual results could differ significantly. If any of the assump tions used in the example in this presentation do not prove true, results may vary significantly from the examples shown. These examples are for illustrative purposes only and do not purport to show actual results. Alternative Investment such as hedge f unds are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds, may make speculative investments, may be illiquid and can involve a significant use of leverage, making them substantially visible than other investmen ts. No part of this material may, without Omegas prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopies or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director or authorized agent of the recipien t.
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