You are on page 1of 32

The Investment Outlook and Some Attractive Values

Presentation by

Omega Advisors, Inc.


Leon G. Cooperman Chairman and CEO Omega Advisors, Inc.
Investment Manager:

Omega Advisors, Inc.


Wall Street Plaza 88 Pine Street, 31st Floor New York, NY 10005 (212) 495-5200

October 18, 2011


PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIMITED TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A POOL OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES Omega Advisors, Inc. TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING OR ANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL.

Exhibit 1

U. S. Economic Environment
Q4 to Q4
Real GDP (qoq % saar) Real Consumer Spending (qoq % saar) Real Business Equipment & Software (qoq % saar) Core PCE Inflation ( qoq % saar) Unemployment Rate (avg %) Federal Funds Target (%) S&P 500 Operating Earnings (yoy %) S&P 500 Operating EPS ($)
(a) Year-end actual/forecasts source: BEA, Bloomberg, Macroeconomic Advisors, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

2010 3.4 3.0 16.6 1.0 9.6 (a) 0.25 (a) 36.6 85.5

2011 1.9 1.7 8.0 1.8 9.0 (a) 0.25 (a) 13.5 97.0

2012 2.2 2.0 7.5 1.5 9.0 (a) 0.25 (a) 5.0 102.0

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 2
14 13 12 11 10

Household Debt Service Ratio and Saving Rate

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

82

Saving - Monthly Data from 12/80 to 8/11, Debt - Quarterly Data to 11:q2 Debt Service Payments as a % of Disposable Personal Income (left scale) Personal Saving Rate (right scale)

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

Source:Federal ReserveBoard,BEA,andOmegaAdvisors,Inc.

95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60

Household Liquid Assets % Liabilities

98

Quarterly Data from 97:q4 to 11:q2 Households Liquid Assets as a % of Household Liabilities

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60

Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Omega Advisors, Inc.

40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

Bank Lending Standards Easing


Consumer

C&I 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

Quarterly Data from 90:q3 to 11:q3 Net % of Banks Easing Standards for C&I Loans, avg of Small, Medium & Large Bus. Net Percent of Banks Indicate More Willing to Make Consumer Loans

Source: FRB Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Why We are Not Likely to Experience Another 2008 Type Decline?

Exhibit 3

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

Banking system has gone from insolvency to strong capital ratios. No weak/opaque shadow banking system to contend with. The financial condition of Corporate America is excellent. Profit and revenue growth are still good as is growth in dividends and share buybacks. Business inventories are in excellent shape. There is no bubble in housing as in 2008 and most cyclical sectors of the economy are at a very low percentage of GDP. Household debt/GDP, while still high, has dropped from 95.4% to 85.1%. Debt service ratio substantially improved. The consumer savings rate has gone from 1% to 5.0%. Lower dollar should be a plus for exports. Oil price decline from $115 to $77 WTI ($130 to $102 Brent) per barrel positive for consumers and economy generally. FED policy of zero interest rates will ultimately work. Tame wages and decent productivity. Decent M&A activity and large pool of private equity capital. Investors are conservatively postured. Market valuation very appealing both absolute and particularly relative to alternatives (financial repression).

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 4 Euro Zone Will Be Okay ? We have been very disappointed in the tardiness and substance of policies offered by the eurozone governments and the ECB to address the European sovereign-debt issue. This tardiness and lack of substance has taken its toll on risk assets. Nonetheless, we do believe that governments and the central bank in Europe, for now, will address the sovereign-debt issue. EFSF permitted to buy weak peripheral debt in the primary and secondary markets EFSF permitted to extend loans to shore up bank balance sheets EFSF/IMF likely to fund Greece through mid-2014 ECB purchasing Italian and Spanish debt ECB providing unlimited liquidity to banks ECB moderating its tight money policy ECB purchasing covered bonds from banks, aiding bank funding Asian governments likely to support euro-zone sovereign debt EFSF lending capacity lifted to 440 billion and likely to increase further Euro-zone bank re-capitalizations coming Increased dollar swap funding available to euro-zone banks
Note: EFSF European Financial Stability Fund
Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 5

Crude Oil Price


160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Daily Data from January 2006 to 10/14/11

Crude Oil Price ion US $ - WTI


Source: Bloomberg and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Crude Oil Price in US $ - Brent

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 6
Historical Bear Market Cycles
% Change Peak to Trough (20.6)% (14.6) (20.7) (13.7) (28.0) (22.2) (32.9) (47.7) (19.1) (27.1) (33.5) (19.9) (19.3) (49.1) (56.8) (28.3)% (19.4) Length of Peak to Trough (months) 12 8 17 15 6 8 19 21 15 21 4 3 1 31 17 13.2 P/E Contraction Peak to Trough (38.4)% (18.3) (15.3) (10.3) (33.8) (26.7) (31.2) (63.2) (26.6) (24.7) (41.2) (20.1) (19.3) (14.9) (48.3)* (28.8)% (21.8)

Peak S&P 500 Date Jun 1948 Dec 1952 Jul 1956 Jul 1959 Dec 1961 Jan 1966 Nov 1968 Dec 1972 Dec 1976 Nov 1980 Aug 1987 Jul 1990 Jul 1998 Mar 2000 Oct 2007 Average Apr 2011 17.06 26.59 49.74 60.62 72.64 94.06 108.37 119.12 107.46 140.52 336.77 368.95 1186.75 1527.46 1565.15 1363.61

Trough Date S&P 500 Jun 1949 Aug 1953 Dec 1957 Oct 1960 Jun 1962 Sep 1966 Jun 1970 Sep 1974 Mar 1978 Aug 1982 Dec 1987 Oct 1990 Aug 1998 Oct 2002 Mar 2009 Current(a) 13.55 22.71 39.42 52.30 52.32 73.20 72.72 62.28 86.90 102.42 223.92 295.46 957.28 776.77 676.53 1099.23

*Excluding financial sector write-downs (a) As of October 3, 2011 Source: Standard & Poor's, UBS Investment Research, and Omega Advisors, Inc.
Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 7

The Economic and Profit Cycles


Date of Date of Re ce ssion Economic Economic Duration Trough (month) Pe ak Nov 1948 Oct 1949 11 Jul 1953 May 1954 10 Aug 1957 Apr 1958 8 Apr 1960 Feb 1961 10 Dec 1969 Nov 1970 11 Nov 1973 Mar 1975 16 Jan 1980 Jul 1980 6 Jul 1981 Nov 1982 16 Jul 1990 Mar 1991 8 Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 Ave rage (months) 11 S&P 500 Profit Pe ak Months Afte r Re ce ssion Starte d 6 1 0 -8 -4 9 1 4 -14 5 -7 -1 S&P 500 Profit Trough Months Afte r Re ce ssion End 1 -6 4 3 0 5 1 3 8 3 2 2 % Change in Profit Pe ak to Trough
-3.3 -1.6 -17.0 -11.7 -12.9 -14.8 -4.3 -19.1 -14.9 -22.2 -44.5

Date May 1949 Aug 1953 Aug 1957 Aug 1959 Aug 1969 Aug 1974 Feb 1980 Nov 1981 May 1989 Aug 2000 May 2007

Date Nov 1949 Nov 1953 Aug 1958 May 1961 Nov 1970 Aug 1975 Aug 1980 Feb 1983 Nov 1991 Feb 2002 Aug 2009

-15.1

Source: NBER, St andard & Poor's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 8

Market Peaks versus Economic Peaks


Date of Economic Trough Oct 1949 May 1954 Apr 1958 Feb 1961 Nov 1970 Mar 1975 Jul 1980 Nov 1982 Mar 1991 Nov 2001 Average (months) Average ('49-'81) Jun 2009 Date of Economic Peak Jul 1953 Aug 1957 Apr 1960 Dec 1969 Nov 1973 Jan 1980 Jul 1981 Jul 1990 Mar 2001 Dec 2007 Expansion Duration (month) 45 39 24 104 35 57 11 91 120 73 60 45 Date of S&P 500 Peak Dec 1952 Jul 1956 Jul 1959 Nov 1968 Dec 1972 Feb 1980 Nov 1980 Jul 1990 Mar 2000 Oct 2007 Market Peak Prior to Eco Peak (month) 7 13 9 13 11 -1 8 0 12 2 7.4 8.6

Source: NBER, Standard and Poor's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 9
%

U.S. GDP Gap

6 4 2 0

6 4 2 0

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Quarterly Data from 69:q4 to 11:q2

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10

(Nominal GDP - CBO Potential GDP) as a % of Potential GDP


Source: CBO, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

PercentagePoints
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 70 72 74 76 78 80

U.S. Unemployment Rate Gap

PercentagePoints

4 2 0 -2 -4

82 84 86 88

Quarterly Data from 69:q4 to 11:q2

90 92 94

96 98 00 02

04 06 08 10

-6

CBO NAIRU (Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) less the Unemployment Rate
Source: CBO, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 10

S&P 500 P/E and Inflation(a)


CPI (Y/Y% change) <1% 1% to 3% 3% to 5% 5% to 7% >7% Average (1960 to 2009) S&P 500(b) P/E Ratio 15.79x 17.21 15.59 12.81 8.70 14.98x 11.6x

In this same period 10 year U.S. Government Bond, yielded an average of 6.67%

(a) S&P 500 P/E on 12-month forward operating earnings (b) As of October 6, 2011. 12-month forward operating earnings of $100.0 Source: BLS, Standard & Poor's, T homson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 11
Valuation: Attractive versus Core Inflation, Real Bond Rate, and Corporate Bond
(Monthly Data from 1960 to 2009)
22 20

S&P 500Forward PE versusCorePCE Inflation


Current

22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6

Average P/E

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 < 1.5% 1.5 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.5 2.5 to 3.5 3.5 to 4.5 4.5 to 6.0 6.0 to 8.0 >8.0%

Average P/E

Core PCE, Y/Y %change


18

S&P 500Forward PE versusReal Rate

18 16

Average P/E

16 14 12 10 8 Less than 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 Greater than 8

Current

14 12 10 8

Average P/E

10-Year Treasury Yield less Core PCE Inflation, in percentage points

20
Average P/E

S&P 500 Forward PE versus Corporate Bond Yield


Current

20 18
Average P/E

18 16 14 12 10 8

16 14 12 10 Less than 5% 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 12 Greater than 12% 8

Moody's Long-termIndustrial Bond Yield in %

Source: Standard and Poor's, Thomson Reuters, FRB, BEA, Moody's, and Omega Advisors, Inc

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 12
3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
-1 SD +1 SD Fair Value

Blended Valuation - S&P 500 with Inv.-Grade Corp. Bond Yield


Overvalued

3 2 1 0 -1

Undervalued

-2 -3

72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Monthly Data from 1/71 to 10/6/11

50%Market Valuation to INDUSTRIAL Bond Yields, and 50%to Core Inflation


Source: FRB, BLS, Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

20 15 10 5 0 -5

Equity Risk Premium - S&P 500

20 15 10 5 0

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Monthly Data from 1/60 to 10/6/11 Earnings Yield on Trend Earnings for the S&P 500 - 10-year Tips Yield
Source:Standard and Poor's, Bloomberg, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

-5

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 13

6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Equity Risk Premium (VIX Adjusted) - S&P 500


+1 SD

6 4 2

Average

0
-1 SD

-2 -4 -6 -8

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Monthly Data from 1/90 to 10/6/11

S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield less VIX Adjusted 10-year Treasury Yield
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 14

Bear Market Valuation


Date of Date of Re ce ssion Economic Economic Duration Trough (month) Pe ak Apr 1960 Dec 1969 Nov 1973 Jan 1980 Jul 1981 Jul 1990 Mar 2001 Dec 2007 Ave rage Feb 1961 Nov 1970 Mar 1975 Jul 1980 Nov 1982 Mar 1991 Nov 2001 Jun 2009 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 18 12 Curre nt (10/6/11) S&P 500 P/E at Its Lowe st in the Re ce ssion Date P/E Apr 1960 Jun 1970 Sep 1974 Mar 1980 Feb 1982 Oct 1990 Mar 2001 Feb 2009 16.04 13.17 6.97 6.68 7.36 12.15 21.30 12.15 12.0 12.3 10-Ye ar Tre asury Yld 4.28 7.84 8.04 12.75 14.43 8.72 4.89 2.87 8.0 1.99 LT Corp. Bond Yie ld 4.61 8.55 9.44 13.11 15.53 10.10 7.23 6.56 9.4 4.56 Earnings Yie ld le ss Tre asury Corp. Bond Y/Y %ch in Core CPI 1.96 -0.25 6.30 2.23 -0.85 -0.49 -0.19 5.36 1.76 6.15 1.63 -0.96 4.90 1.86 -1.95 -1.87 -2.54 1.67 0.34 3.58 4.24 1.06 4.12 2.37 4.38 2.87 2.08 6.44 3.45 6.19

P/E and earnings yield are based on monthend S&P 500 price and 4-quarter trailingoperatingEPS. Treasuruy and corp. bond are average monthly yield.
Source: NBER, St andard & Poor's, T homson/Reut ers, FRB, M oody's, BLS, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

At historical average of earnings yield less investment-grade corp.-bond yield, S&P 500 is discounting 2012 EPS of about $60. At 2009 earnings yield less investment-grade corp.-bond yield, S&P 500 is discounting 2012 EPS of about $72.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 15

Current versus March 2009


10/6/2011 S&P 500 Index PE (4Q trailing operating EPS) Dividend Yield 10-Year T. Bond Yield Long-term Corp. Bond Yield High-yield Bond Yield Earnings Yield - T. Bond Yield Earnings Yield - Corp. Bond Yield S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 DPS 1164.97 12.3 X 2.2 % 1.99 4.56 8.85 6.15 p.p. 3.58 94.80 25.18 3/9/2009 676.53 12.4 X 4.0 % 2.89 6.74 19.35 5.15 p.p. 1.30 54.37 27.25

Source: Standard and Poor's, FRB, Bloomberg, Moody's, Thomson Reuters, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 16
2000 1503 1005 508

S&P 500

2000 1503 1005 508

10

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 S&P 500 - Monthly Data from 7/53 to 9/11 S&P 500, shaded areas were recessions S&P 500 Long-term Trend
Source: Standard and Poor's and Omega Advisors, Inc.

10

20 15 10 5 0 -5

S&P 500 10-Year Return

20 15 10 5 0 -5

35

40

Annual Data from 1936 to 9/30/11 S&P 500 10-year Rolling Annualized Total Return (%)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

Source: Standard and Poor's, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 17

4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Free Cash Flow Yield over Corporate Bond Yield

4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

Annual Data from 1995 to 9/30/2011

S&P 500 Free Cash Flow Yield - Moody's Investment-Grade Corp. Bond Yield
Source: Standard and Poor's, UBS, Moody's, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 18
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Monthly Data from 12/84 to 10/6/11
Average '70 to '09 10/6 on $82

S&P 500 PE Ratio

35 30 25 20

15 10 5

S&P 500 P/E on 12-month Forward Operating EPS


Source: Standard and Poor's, Thomson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Avg 70 to 09

Stock - Bond Spread


#
10/6/30 on EPS $82

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Monthly Data from 1970 to 10/6/11

-6

S&P 500 Earnings Yield (12M forward operating EPS) less 10-Year Gov't Bond Yield
Source: FRB, Standard & Poor's, Thomson Financial, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 19
30

Average Yield of High Yield Corporate Bonds


11/21/08 @25.0%

30

25

25

20

3/9/09 @19.3%

20

15

15

10

@8.85%

10

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Weekly Data from Sept. 2005 to 10/6/11 The Avg. Yield Weighted by Par, all Bonds in FINRA-Bloomberg US Corp. Bond Index (NBBHYL)
Source: FINRA-Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

SPX 500 P/E 11/08 = 900/65 2/09 = 800/62 = 13.9x = 12.9x

Current = 1165/97.0 = 12.0x 1165/102.0 = 11.4x


Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 20

S&P 500 Companies Excluding Financials


Dividend Yield Higher Than 10-Yr T-Note Yield % of Companies % of Companies 2011 (a) 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 45.3 14.7 11.4 45.5 6.6 1.7 4.8 5.5 5.6 10.1 3.6 3.1 4.7 3.8 2.2 3.6 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 4.5 2.3 5.0 0.9 1.0 4.0 2.0 3.4 3.2 5.4 3.0 1.9 3.5 7.7 2.4

(a) As of October 6, 2011 Source: Standard and Poor's, Factset, Bloomberg, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 21

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Dividend Yield - Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11, Treasury - Monthly Data from 1953 to 9/11

S&P 500 Dividend Yield

10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: Standard and Poor's, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 22
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10

S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Yield

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

S&P 500 Dividend Yield


Source:StandardandPoor's,Moody's,andOmegaAdvisors,Inc.

Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Yield

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 38 41 44

S&P 500 Dividend Yield and Moody's BAA Corporate Bond Yield

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

47

50

53

56

59

62

65

68 71 74 77 80 83 Monthly Data from 1938 to 9/11

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07

10

S&P 500 Dividend Yield


Source:StandardandPoor's,Moody's,andOmegaAdvisors,Inc.

Moody's BAA Corporate Bond Yield

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 23

20

Nominal GDP Growth and 10-Year G. Bond Yield

20

15

15

10

10

-5

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

-5

GDP - Quarterly Data from 79:q4 to 11:q2, Yield - Monthly Data to 9/11

Nominal GDP Growth, year-over-year %change 10-year Gov't Bond Yield


Source: BEA, FRB, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

10-year Treasury yield approximates year-over-year %change of nominal GDP growth

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 24

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 8/16/'82
-5.37

Global Risk Appetite

10 8

Euphoria

6 4 2 0 -2

Panic
10/9/'02 -5.76

-4
11/20/'08 -6 -5.54 10/4/'11 -6.61

-8

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

-8

Daily Data from 1982 to 10/6/11 Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index, incl. Equity and Credit
Source: Credit Suisse Fixed Income Research, Thomson Reuters Datastream, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 25 Risks to Our Equity Market Outlook


The opportunity for a self-sustaining economic expansion is threatened by weak employment growth and/or the feedback to the economy from lower equity prices/euro-zone sovereign-debt issues. The result is the possibility of recession The core euro-zone governments, IMF, and ECB fail to contain the sovereign-debt issue and instigate further sustained contagion to Italy and Spain, in turn causing a global recession and weaker than expected corporate profits A dent to global growth if there is a hard landing in Chinas economy Home prices enter another phase of accelerating decline, denting consumer confidence and spending Middle East turmoil intensifies and energy prices spike, constraining real income and spending Budget deficit issues in the U. S. and the unwillingness of Washington to fully address the deficit constrain U.S. growth The uncertain effects in the U.S. surrounding consumer and financial-sector deleveraging and the collision of this deleveraging with public-sector balance-sheet leveraging The uncertain economic and capital-market effects of heightened global regulation on financial markets A continuing significant reliance of the U.S. on foreign capital, particularly Chinese capital at a time when there are differences in currency policy between the U.S. and China Capital controls imposed by emerging economies to stem the rise in their currencies and protect against asset bubbles A still not friendly Administration, re the corporate sector
Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 26 Presidential Platform 1. 2. 3. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Provide every returning soldier with a free four year college education or trade school of their choice. Set up a peace time WPA effort to channel a portion of the saving into rebuilding US infrastructure. Unleash the domestic energy industry to develop domestic energy supplies and reserves. This will create employment and reduce our dependency on foreign suppliers. Government spending should be limited to a growth rate at least 1% below the level of nominal GDP growth. Freeze entitlements and raise the social security retirement age to 70 with an exception of those that work at hard labor. 10% income tax surcharge for three years on those that earn over $500,000 per year. 5% VAT tax to get at the underground economy and deal with the deficit. Tackle health care in a serious way. Reinstate the Up-Tick rule for short sales, ban or curtail High Frequency trading and limit CDS trading to those that own the underlying bonds. The high frequency traders are turning the best capital market in the world into a casino and scaring the public. This is not in the public interest.

4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 27

The Investment Environment


Economic Outlook: Slow growth owing to economy wide deleveraging . Tame inflation owing to substantial output and labor excess capacity . Sub -par employment growth owing to regulation/slow growth in final demand. Slow profit g rowth owing to elevated profit margins and slow nominal GDP growth Economic expansions average in duration and below average in magnitude. Changing composition of GDP with consumption declining as a percentage of output and capital spending, residential i nvestment, and exports increasing as a share of output.

Real GDP GDP Price Deflator Nominal GDP Profits Dividend and Buyback Yield Total Return S&P 500 10 Year T -Bond *constant P/E

1960 -2007 3.3% 3.7 7.2 8.2 3.4 10.4

Next Decade 2%-2.5% 2-2.5 4.0 -5.0 4-5 3-4 7-9* Negative

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 28

14

Profit Margin

14

12

12

10
Average

10

63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Quarterly Data from 62:q4 to 11:q2 Pretax Corporate Profits as a % of Nominal GDP
Source: BEA, and Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 29

Omega Advisors, Inc.

Exhibit 30

Omega Advisors 10 Long Ideas


Ticker
AAPL BSX KFN QCOM SLM ACE RIG EXXI ETFC SUN

Description APPLE INC BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP KKR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LLC QUALCOMM INC SLM CORP ACE LTD TRANSOCEAN LTD ENERGY XXI BERMUDA E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP SUNOCO INC

10/14/11 Price 422.00 5.69 7.92 54.98 13.54 63.15 50.42 26.87 9.80 35.33

2011 EPS 29.00 0.72 1.55 3.28 1.85 6.40 3.40 2.50 0.83 0.75 PE 14.6 7.9 5.1 16.8 7.3 9.9 14.8 10.7 11.8 47.1 EPS 40.00 0.83 1.65 4.16 1.90 7.40 5.85 3.00 1.05 2.75

2012 PE 10.6 6.9 4.8 13.2 7.1 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.3 12.8

Div. Yield 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 1.6% 3.0% 2.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%

Growth Rate 3 to 5 yrs 18.0% 16.0% 7.0% 16.0% 5.0% 7.0% 12.0% 18.0% 36.0% 5.0%

(1) Cash Flow Source: Omega Advisors, Inc.

Omega Advisors, Inc.

NOTES TO INVESTMENT RESULTS This material is provided for any securit y. educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of offer to buy

This material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad -based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as investment advice. This information may not be current and Omega has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. We have relied u and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information from third party sources. Any reference to a specific company does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities of such company. Opinion s and views expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. They involve a number of assumptions that may not prove to be valid so that actual results could differ significantly. If any of the assump tions used in the example in this presentation do not prove true, results may vary significantly from the examples shown. These examples are for illustrative purposes only and do not purport to show actual results. Alternative Investment such as hedge f unds are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds, may make speculative investments, may be illiquid and can involve a significant use of leverage, making them substantially visible than other investmen ts. No part of this material may, without Omegas prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopies or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director or authorized agent of the recipien t.

pon

Omega Advisors, Inc.

You might also like