Predictability & Measurement

with Kanban
Agile Cambridge September 2011
David J. Anderson David J. Anderson & Associates dja@djandersonassociates.com

Book Published April 2010

A 72,000 word intro to the topic Available from djandersonassociates.com

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http://leankanbanuniversity.com

http://www.limitedwipsociety.org

LinkedIn Groups: Software Kanban Yahoo! Groups: kanbandev

Yahoo! Groups: kanbanops

Delivering predictability with Kanban

requires some different techniques for different types of work such as software maintenance and support

or
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major project work

Service-oriented work

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Create a regular delivery cadence

Develop a strong config management capability

Develop capability to deploy effectively

Build code with high quality

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Understand capability by studying the natural philosophy of the work

Lead Time Distribution
2.5 2

MARCH

# CRs

1.5 1 0.5 0

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

96

101

Days

Lead Time Distribution

3.5 3

106

APRIL

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2.5

CRs & Bugs

Majority of CRs range 30 -> 55

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Outliers

1 14

15

22

29

36

43

50

57

64

71

78

85

92

99

10

11

12

12

13

Days

14

For standard class items, offer a target lead time based on the 2nd confidence interval

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Lead Time Distribution

3.5 3 2.5

CRs & Bugs

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

1 14

15

22

29

36

43

50

57

64

71

78

85

92

99

10

11

12

12

13

Days

For example, SLA of 51 days with 98% on-time (+2 sigma from mean)

14

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51 days will not be good enough for some feature requests, so offer a package of classes of service

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Package of Classes with SLAs

As soon as possible

Full transparency

100% on-time

providing 24 days advance notice

Up to 51 days

98% on-time guarantee

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Up to 51 days

50% on-time

Lead time

Standard Class Items

Fixed Date Items

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Expedite Item

Features Delivered

Allocate capacity across classes of service in order to deliver against anticipated demand
5 4 3
4 2 2 = 20 total

Analysis Input Queue In Prog Done

Development Dev Ready In Prog Done

Build Ready

Test

Release Ready

...

Allocation

+1 = +5%
4 = 20% 10 = 50%

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6 = 30%

John Seddon has observed that allocating capacity in this fashion damages capacity!
While this is theoretically possible it will almost never happen because

(a) a simple policy can be implemented to temporarily re-allocate

(b) demand is rarely zero for a given type, though Fixed Date class of service can be seasonal

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(c) the tickets represent work, not workers, the workforce is flexible. Classes of service & capacity allocation insure people can keep busy improving utilization not damaging it

Major Project Work

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Requires all the same underlying data as used in service oriented work
plus

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Major Project with two-tiered kanban board

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Cumulative Flow and Predictive Modeling with S-Curve

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Features

Typical S-curve

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2M ar

9M ar

eb

eb

eb

16 -M ar

23 -M ar

Time
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

30 -M ar

10 -F

17 -F

24 -F

Simulating S-Curve with a Z

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow

240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

60%
Slope in middle 3.5x - 5x slope at ends

Features

5x 20%

20%

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2M ar

9M ar

eb

eb

eb

16 -M ar

23 -M ar

Time
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

30 -M ar

10 -F

17 -F

24 -F

Track actual throughput against projection

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Features

Track delta between planned and actual each day

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2M ar

9M ar

eb

eb

eb

16 -M ar

23 -M ar

Time
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

30 -M ar

10 -F

17 -F

24 -F

Unplanned Work Report

Scope Creep

Dark Matter

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Make a long term plan to build platform replacement

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
Required throughput (velocity)
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Features

Slope in middle 3.5x - 5x slope at ends

5x

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2M ar

9M ar

eb

eb

eb

16 -M ar

23 -M ar

Time
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

30 -M ar

2006
17 -F

2008

10 -F

24 -F

We need average throughput (velocity) to peak at 13 features per month over 24 months.

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Littles Law

Target to achieve plan

Determines staffing level

Throughput

WIP Lead Time

From observed capability Treat as Fixed variable

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Changing the WIP limit without maintaining the staffing level ratio represents a change to the way of working. It is a change to the system design. And will produce a change in the observed common cause capability of the system
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Plan based on currently observed capability and current working practices. Do not assume process improvements. If changing WIP to reduce undesirable effects (e.g. multitasking), get new sample data (perform a spike) to observe the new capability

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Littles Law

Target to achieve plan

Determines staffing level

13 / month

WIP 0.25 months

WIP = 3.25, round up to 4. Might be safe to From observed capability round down to 3. If current working practice is 1 unit WIP per person then 3 people are needed

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Slightly over-allocate the intangible class of service (green) to compensate against expediting
5 4 3
4 2 2 = 20 total

Analysis Input Queue In Prog Done

Development Dev Ready In Prog Done

Build Ready

Test

Release Ready

...

Allocation

+1 = +5%
4 = 20% 12 = 60%

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4 = 20%

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Conclusions

For Service-oriented work, create predictability with

a regular delivery cadence a strong config management capability capability to deploy effectively code with high quality

For major projects

understand peak throughput (velocity) model the s-curve on work complete treat the avg. lead time as the fixed variable use Littles Law to calculate WIP limits and staffing levels

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Thank you!

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dja@agilemanagement.net http://www.agilemanagement.net/

About
David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a consulting firm dedicated to improving economic performance of knowledge worker businesses improving agility, reducing cycle times, improving productivity and efficiency in technology development. He has 25+ years experience in the software industry starting with computer games in the early 1980s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods. He developed MSF for CMMI Process Improvement for Microsoft. He is a co-author of the SEI Technical Note, CMMI and Agile: Why not embrace both! Davids book, Agile Management for Software Engineering Applying the Theory of Constraints for Business Results, introduced many ideas from Lean and Theory of Constraints into software engineering. David was a founder of the Lean Software & Systems Consortium, a not for profit dedicated to promoting better standards of professionalism and effectiveness in software engineering. Email dja@agilemanagement.net

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