Outline Motivation Activity-based Model Activity-based Mobility Models Experiments Conclusions

An Application of Markov Jump Process Model for Activity-Based Indoor Mobility Prediction in Wireless Networks
Joanna Koodziej1 Samee U. Khan2 Nasro Min-Allah4 Sajjad A. Madani4 Hongxiang Li6
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Lizhe Wang3 Nasir Ghani5

University of Bielsko-Biaa, Poland North Dakota State University, USA 3 Indiana University, USA 4 COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Pakistan 5 University of New Mexico, USA 6 University of Louisville, USA

FIT 2011, Islamabad, Pakistan, December 1921, 2011

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Outline Motivation Activity-based Model Activity-based Mobility Models Experiments Conclusions

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Motivation Activity-based Model Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model Activity-based Mobility Models AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model Experiments Settings Results Conclusions

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Motivation

An eective users motion prediction in indoor environments an important issue in all aspects of peoples daily lives

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Motivation

An eective users motion prediction in indoor environments an important issue in all aspects of peoples daily lives The aim of the users mobility prediction determination the location of the user in the network by the manipulation of the available information about the users activity

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Outline Motivation Activity-based Model Activity-based Mobility Models Experiments Conclusions

Motivation

An eective users motion prediction in indoor environments an important issue in all aspects of peoples daily lives The aim of the users mobility prediction determination the location of the user in the network by the manipulation of the available information about the users activity Markov-based mobility models an eective method for elimination of the random movements of users may be a good solution to the users mobility management in many real-life scenarios (living assistant, evacuation management)

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Activity-based Model Main Modules

list of user's activities

ACTIVITY MODEL

ENVIRONMENT MODEL

MOTION MODULE

SERVICE MODULE

muti-graph of user's paths

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Activity-based Model Main Modules

list of user's activities

ACTIVITY MODEL

Main Modules Activity Model Motion Module Service Module

ENVIRONMENT MODEL

MOTION MODULE

SERVICE MODULE

Environment Model

muti-graph of user's paths

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Activity Model

Activity model is used mainly for the calculation of the concrete activity schedules for a user

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Activity Model

Activity model is used mainly for the calculation of the concrete activity schedules for a user Activity model accumulates and stores information about the mobility behavior of the users in terms of the time sequence in which activities are performed

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Outline Motivation Activity-based Model Activity-based Mobility Models Experiments Conclusions

Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Activity Model

Activity model is used mainly for the calculation of the concrete activity schedules for a user Activity model accumulates and stores information about the mobility behavior of the users in terms of the time sequence in which activities are performed To dene the activity model, rst we have to specify a list of the non-networking users actions, which are classied into several parametrized groups

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Users Activities Criteria

Users' Activities Criteria

Starting Time

Duration

Priority

a fixed point of time, in which the activities either start or are scheduled

the time, in which the activities finish or they are predicted to be completed

may be specified by the user in order to make some preferences in the activities

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Case study: users activities at Computer Science (CS) Department University of Bielsko-Biaa, Poland
9 location nodes: lecture halls, labs, cafeteria, canteen, leisure room, library, sta oces dierent types of users: lecturers, researchers, administration sta, students many types of activities for each class: providing (attending) the lectures, social activities, department management, etc. classication of the users activities according to duration time criterion: activities with xed starting time, free-oating activities

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Environment Graph for CS Department

Transition (Navigation) Nodes Location Nodes

Lab1
LH2 LH2

Lab2
C Of Lib

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Environment Graph for CS Department

Transition (Navigation) Nodes Location Nodes

Lab1
LH2 LH2

Node Notation
C Cafeteria Lib Library LH1, LH2 Lecture Halls Lab1, Lab2 Laboratories

Lab2
C Of Lib

Of Oce

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Environment Model

Environmental Graph G = (V, E(w)) where:

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Environment Model

Environmental Graph G = (V, E(w)) where: Nodes V - set of nodes V =TL

T transition nodes L location nodes

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Activity-based Model Activity Model Environment Model

Environment Model

Environmental Graph G = (V, E(w)) where: Nodes V - set of nodes V =TL

T transition nodes L location nodes

Edges E(w) - set of multiple edges w a width of the path the number of edges connecting a pair nodes in G

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

Activity-based Markov Mobility Models

Activity-based Mobility Prediction model using Markov modeling (AMPuMM)

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

Activity-based Markov Mobility Models

Activity-based Mobility Prediction model using Markov modeling (AMPuMM) Markov Continuous-time Jump Process model (MCJPM)

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

AMPuMM Model
The users activities are classied into navigation activity and location activity Activities Users everyday activities are observed and recorded into six groups based on the regularity with which it occurs and the duration:
Type Regular Duration Short Medium Long Short Medium Long

Irregular

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

AMPuMM Model
The users activities are classied into navigation activity and location activity Activities Users everyday activities are observed and recorded into six groups based on the regularity with which it occurs and the duration:
Type Regular Duration Short Medium Long Short Medium Long

Irregular

Each day of activities observation is segmented into 9 dierent time slots

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

AMPuMM Model
The users activities are classied into navigation activity and location activity Activities Users everyday activities are observed and recorded into six groups based on the regularity with which it occurs and the duration:
Type Regular Duration Short Medium Long Short Medium Long

Irregular

Each day of activities observation is segmented into 9 dierent time slots For each time slot, the transition probabilities from one activity to next can be extracted from users trace
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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

States and Transition Probabilities

Vector of states A = [a1 , a2 , . . . , a7 ] Transition probabilities pij =
N(ai aj ) N(ai aj )

Transition matrix p11 p 21 P= . . . p71

... ... . . . ...

p17 p27 . . . p77

N(ai aj ) N(ai aj )

the number of time slots in which the activity aj follows activity ai the number of time slots in which the activity aj doesnt follow the activity ai

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

AMPuMM Extension MCJPM Model

State vector: A = [a1 , . . . , ak ] Transition Probabilities r(aj , ai ) = pg (i)
aj p(aj ,ai ) pg (i)

Transition Matrix p(a1 ,a1 ) p(a2 ,a1 ) = P . . . p(ak ,a1 ) ... ... . . . ... p(a1 ,ak ) p(a2 ,ak ) . . . p(ak ,ak ) .

j i

p(aj ,ai )

r(ai , ai ) = 0 r(aj , ai ) = 1

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AMPuMM Model MCJPM Model

AMPuMM Extension MCJPM Model

State vector: A = [a1 , . . . , ak ] Transition Probabilities r(aj , ai ) = pg (i)
aj p(aj ,ai ) pg (i)

Transition Matrix p(a1 ,a1 ) p(a2 ,a1 ) = P . . . p(ak ,a1 ) ... ... . . . ... p(a1 ,ak ) p(a2 ,ak ) . . . p(ak ,ak ) .

j i

p(aj ,ai )

r(ai , ai ) = 0 r(aj , ai ) = 1

Transition probability distribution P( t, X() = aj , X(0) = ai ) = = r(aj , ai ) Fai (t)

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Time and Density functions Fai (t) = 1 eai t time, in which the system remains in the state ai fai (t) = ai eai t density function for Fai
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Settings Results

Experiments Settings

Environment: - CS Department (U Bielsko-Biaa) area 500m 400m Users: 35 undergraduate students of the 6-th semester in computer science (1 semester=5 months) Period: 4 weeks between March 7, 2001 and April 3, 2011; the rst three weeks worth of activity data was separated from the last week worth Data collection: everyday from Monday to Friday the students had to specify where they had been or will be at given points in time (8, 10, 12, 13, 14, 16, 18 oclock)

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Settings Results

Performance measures
For each user, based on the results collected in the rst three weeks of the experiment, the probabilities of moving between the location states distinguished for both Markov jump and AMPuMM models have been estimated Metrics:
distance measure determines the optimal average deviation between the generated users motion patterns and those calculated by using the data collected in the fourth week of experiment predictability rate relative error of the prediction of the users activities in the fourth week

The executions of the models have been repeated 30 times under the same conguration of parameters

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Settings Results

Optimal average distance deviation per weekday [m]

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Settings Results

Optimal average distance deviation per weekday [m]

Interpretation
On average the generated users are about 115250 meters from their real positions (signicant error); Reasons: some nodes are located in dierent buildings at the campus; both Markov-based model tries to ll the whole simulation area uniformly.
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Settings Results

Users activity prediction error per weekday [%]

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Settings Results

Users activity prediction error per weekday [%]

Interpretation
The prediction errors are much smaller for jump process (ab. 515 %) than AMPuMM (ab 7.523.5 %); The users preferences may change signicantly on Mondays and Fridays.

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Conclusions

This model derives the necessary movements for a given users activity

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Conclusions

This model derives the necessary movements for a given users activity This model supports the needful services for the users activity

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Conclusions

This model derives the necessary movements for a given users activity This model supports the needful services for the users activity The environment model, which is usually represented as a multi-graph, provides the necessary information about the paths and activity location in the simulation area

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Conclusions

This model derives the necessary movements for a given users activity This model supports the needful services for the users activity The environment model, which is usually represented as a multi-graph, provides the necessary information about the paths and activity location in the simulation area This model can be useful in modern intelligent building automation systems, which can make it a crucial issue especially in the disaster management

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! QUESTIONS ?

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