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CHAPTER 13: PROBABILITY I

13.1 Sample Space Important concept: An experiment is a process or action to observe its outcomes. A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes from an experiment. It can be represented in the form of set notation. ( Example : S ={ 1, 2), ( 1, 3), (1, 4 )} Determine the sample space, S, of the following experiments by listing all the possible outcomes. Example 1 Experiment: Tossing a fair coin Sample space, S = {Head, Tail} Example 2 Experiment: A fair six-sided die is rolled. Sample space, S Example 3 Experiment: Drawing a ball from a bag containing three balls of the same size: white, black and green. Sample space, S = {white ball, black ball, green ball} 3.Experiment: Drawing a ball from a bag containing three balls of the same size: white, red and yellow. S={ } 6. Experiment: Randomly drawing a card from a bag containing 4 cards: black, green, red and blue. S= 9. Experiment: Randomly drawing a pen from a box containing three pens: one black, one blue and one red. S= S=

={1,2,3,4,5,6}

5. Experiment: Randomly drawing a card from the five letter cards

L A R G E

S= 7. Experiment: Randomly drawing a marble from the numbered marbles below. 8. Experiment: Randomly drawing a card from the four cards below.
M A

1 2
S=

3 4

T R

13.2 Events
Important concept: An event , A , is the set of outcomes that satisfy certain conditions.

ProbabilityI

An event is a subset of the sample space, S. ( A S ) An event A may or may not occur in an experiment.. An event is possible if its elements are the elements of thye sample space. An impossible event is an empty set.

List all the elements of the event A for each of the following experiments. Example 1 Experiment: Tossing a fair coin. Event A = Getting a head A = { Head} Exercise 1.Experiment: Tossing a fair coin. Event A = Getting a tail A ={ } Example 2 Experiment: A fair six-sided dice is rolled. Event A = Getting odd numbers A = { 1, 3, 5 } Example 3 Experiment: Drawing a ball from a bag containing three balls of the same size: black, red and yellow. Event A = Getting non-black ball. A = { Red ball, Yellow ball} 2.Experiment: A fair six-sided dice is rolled. A = Getting even numbers A={ } 3.Experiment: Randomly drawing a ball from a bag containing three balls of the same size: black, red and white. Event A = Getting non-white ball. A= { } 4. Experiment: Tossing two fair coins. Event A= Getting two faces of the ame number A= { 5.Experiment: A fair six-sided dice is rolled. A = Getting prime numbers. = 6.Experiment: Randomly drawing a marble from the following:
Red marble Green Black Blue marble marble marble

A= Getting a red or blue marble. = 7. Experiment: Randomly drawing a marble from the numbered marbles below. 8. Experiment: Randomly drawing a card from the four cards below.
M A T R H

1 2

3 4

Event A= Getting odd umber =

A = Getting a consonant =

9. Experiment: Randomly drawing a pen from a box containing three pens: one black, one blue and one red. A = Getting a yellow pen =

13.3 Probability of an Event A, P(A)

Important concept:
P ( A) = N ber um of tim es event A occurs N ber of trials um

ProbabilityI

If P(A) = 0, then A will not occur. If P(A) = 1, then A occurs in every trial, that is, it will certainly occur. The probability of an event A has a value between 0 and 1, that is, 0 P ( A) 1 .

Find the probability of the following events. Examples Exercise Example 1 1. Experiment: Tossing a fair Experiment: Tossing a fair coin coin 400 times. 300 times. A = Getting Head Event A = Getting Head Number of times getting the Number of times getting the Head = 200 times Head = 150 times P(A)= 10 5 P(A) = 30 0 1 = 2 Example 2 3. Experiment: A fair six-sided Experiment: A fair six-sided dice dice is rolled 900 times is rolled 600 times. A= Getting number 6 Event A = Getting the number 2 Number of times getting number Number of times getting the 6 = 150 times number 2 = 100 times P(A) = 100 P(A) = 600 1 = 6 Example 3 5. Experiment: Randomly Experiment: Randomly drawing a drawing a card from a box card from a box containing four containing four cards as below: cards as below :
1 2 3 4

2. Experiment: Tossing a fair coin 500 times A = Getting Tail Number of times getting the Tail = 250 times P(A)=

4. Experiment: A fair six-sided dice is rolled 600 times A= Getting an even number Number of times getting an even number = 300 times P(A)=

6. Experiment: Randomly drawing a card from a box containing four cards as below:
2 3 4 R 6

Replace the card and draw again.The experiment is done 200 times. Event A = Getting the number 1, Number of times getting number 1 is 50 times. 50 1 = P(A) = 200 4

Replace the card and draw again. The experiment is done 300 times. Event A= Getting number D Number of times getting number D is 75 times. P(A)=

Replace the card and draw again. The experiment is done 400 times. Event A= Getting an even number Number of times getting even numbers is 300 times. P(A)=

Important concept: If the probability of an event and the number of trials are given, then The expected number of times the event will occur = P(A) Number of trials Examples Example 1 Tossing a fair coin 600 times Event, A = Getting the Tail Exercise 1. Tossing a fair coin 700 times A= Getting the Tail 2. Tossing a fair coin 500 times A= Getting the Head

ProbabilityI

1 2 Expected number of times getting the Tail, 1 600 = 2 = 300 P(A) = Example 2 Randomly drawing a ball from a box contain a red, a blue and a black ball. Replace the ball and draw again.The experiment is done 450 times. Event A= Getting the red ball 1 P(A) = 3 Expected number of times getting a red ball =
1 4 0 5 3

1 2 Expected number of times getting the Head P(A )= =

3. Randomly drawing a ball from a box contain a green, a yellow, a blue and a black ball. Replace the ball and draw again.The experiment is done 900 times. Event A= Getting the blue ball 1 P(A)= 4 Expected number of times getting a blue ball =

4. Randomly drawing a pen from a box of 3 black, a red and a blue pen. Replace the pen and draw again.The experiment is done 1000 times. Event A = Getting a black pen 3 P(A)= 5 Expected number of times getting a black pen =

= 150 Example 3 A fair six-sided dice is rolled 1200 times. Event A= Getting number3 1 P(A)= 6 Expected number of times getting number 3 1 1200 = 6 = 200 5. A fair six-sided dice is rolled 600 times Event A= Getting number 5 1 P(A)= 6 Expected number of times getting number 5 = = 6. A fair six-sided dice is rolled 900 times Event A= Getting a number greater than 4 1 P(A)= 3 Expected number of times getting number 4

Important concepts: Equiprobable Sample Space A sample space which contains equally likely outcomes. Example : When we toss a fair coin, it is equally likely to get a head or a tail. For an experiment with equiprobable sample space S, the probability of an event A is
P ( A) = n( A) n( S )

where n(A) = number of outcomes in A and n(S) = number of outcomes in S. Examples Exercise

ProbabilityI

Example 1 Tossing a fair coin. S = {Head, Tail} n(S) = 2 Event A = Getting Head A = {Head} n(A) = 1 P(A) =

1. Pick a ball at random from a bag containing 3 red, 2 green and 4 blue balls. n(S) = 9 A = Getting a red ball n(A) = P(A) = B = Getting a blue ball n(B) = P(B)= G = Getting a green ball n(G) = P(G)=

n( A) 1 = n( S ) 2

2. A bag contains 12 sweets, eight of which are red and the rest are yellow. Angela takes a sweet at random from the bag. Find the probability that she takes a yellow sweet. A = Getting a yellow sweet n(S) = n(A) = P(A) = 3. There are 10 books on a shelf,of which 3 are science books and 5 are English books. Ian took a book at random from the shelf. Find the probability that he has taken an English book. n(S) = n(A) = P(A) =

Example 2 Roll a fair six-sided dice. S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} n(S) = 6 Event A = Getting the number 2 A ={2} n(A) = 1 P(A) =

n( A) 1 = n( S ) 6

Example 3 Randomly drawing a card from a box containing four cards as below :
1 2 3 4

4. Draw a card at random from the letter cards below. H A P P Y Find the probability of getting a vowel card. S={ } A ={ } n(A) = n(S) = P(A) =

S = {1, 2, 3, 4} n(S) = 4 Event A = Getting the number 1 A = {1} n(A) = 1

5. A two digit number less that 21 is chosen at random. Find the probability that (a) the number chosen ends with 0, (b) the number chosen is even. S = { 10, 11, } A={ P(A) = B={ P(B) = } }

n( A) 1 = P(A) = n( S ) 4

13.4 Complement of an Event A

Important concept: The Complement of an event A is the event that A does not happen. Symbol : The complement of A is A (read as A prime)

A A
.

ProbabilityI

The probability of A is P ( A) = 1 P ( A) Example 1. Roll a fair six-sided dice. Find the probability of (a) getting a multiple of 3 (b) not getting a multiple of 3. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} n(S) = 6 (a) A = {3, 6} n(A) = 2 Exercise 1. Roll a fair six-sided dice. Find the probability of (a) getting a number greater than 2 (b) getting a number not greater than 2. 2. Roll a fair six-sided dice. Find the probability of (a) getting number 6 (b) getting a number other than 6.

2 1 = 6 3 1 (b) P ( A' ) = 1 3 2 = 3 P ( A) =
2. The probability of Ali 3. The probability that an

3 winning a game is . What is 5

the probability of him not winning the game? P(win) =

1 express bus will be late is . 15

Find the probability that the express bus is not late.

3 5 3 5

4. There are 24 girls and 16 boys in a class. 15 of the girls wear spectacles. If a student is chosen at random from the class, find the probability that the student chosen is a girl who does not wear spectacles.

P(did not win) = 1=

2 5

ProbabilityI

13.5 Questions based on Examination Format Multiple Choice Questions: 1. A bag contains six red and four white marbles. The probability of getting a black marble is 3 A 0 C 5 2 B D 1 5 2. A fair six-sided dice is rolled 840 times. Given 1 the probability of getting the number four is . 6 Calculate the expected number of times getting the number four. A 840 C 210 B 420 D 140 3. Ali rolled a fair six-sided dice 500 times and found that there were 85 times of getting the number 6. The probability of getting the number 6 is A 0.17 C 0.50 B 0.20 D 0.85 4. A box contains 20 different types of colour pencils. Find the probability of getting a colour pencil in the box. 1 A 0 C 2 1 B D 1 20 5.A fair six-sided dice is rolled 900 times. Given that the probability that a prime number appears is 1 . Calculate the expected number of times 2 getting a prime number. A 450 C 200 B 300 D 150

1 , find the 2 500 1000

C D

7. A box contains some letter cards of which 3 are vowels and the rest consonants.When a letter card is drawn at random from the box, the probality of getting a consonant is

C D 10 12

consonants cards in the box. A B 8 9

8. A box contains 5 red pens, x blue pens and 8 black pens. A pen is picked at random from the box. The probability of getting a red pen is Find the value of x. A 7 B 8 C D 9 10

5 . 22

9. Given the probability of picking up an orange2 flavoured sweet randomly from a bag is , find 5 the probability of picking a non-orange flavoured sweet. 5 3 A C 2 5 2 B 1 D 5 10. In a class of 36 students, 24 are girls. 7 boys wear spectacles. If a boy is chosen at random, calculate the probability that he wears spectacles. 7 7 A C 1 2 36 B

7 24

2 3

6. A fair coin is tossed x times and it was found that the Headappeared 250 times. Given that the

11. Suria has 50 table tennis balls which are red, green and blue in colour. If a ball is picked at random, the probability of obtaining a red ball is 3 . Given that there are 12 green balls. Calculate 5 the probability of obtaining a blue ball.

Probability I

1 5 2 5

4 5 4 25

16. Jill has a collection of stamps from United States, Britain and Japan. She picks a stamp at random. The probability of picking a Britain stamp

12. There are 40 red and yellow fish in an aquarium. If a fish is caught at random, the 2 probability that it is a red fish is . Later 14 red 5 fish and 10 yellow fish are added to the aquarium. Calculate the probability of catching a yellow fish. 15 3 A C 32 5 17 1 B D 32 4 13. There are some yellow and purple beads in a box. If a bead is picked at random from the box, 4 the probability that it is a purple bead is . 7 If there are 36 purple beads in the box, calculate the number of yellow beads in the box. A 15 C 27 B 20 D 48 14. There are 6 red shirts, 3 yellow shirts and x green shirts in a bag. When a shirt is drawn at random from the bag, the probability that it is a 3 yellow shirt is . Find the value of x. 1 4 A 2 C 7 B 5 D 19

5 and the probability of picking a Japan stamp 9 1 is . Given that Jill has 60 United States stamps. 3
is Find the total number of stamps in her collection. A B 450 480 C D 540 630

17. The table below shows the distribution of a group of 90 students from the rural and town areas. Male Female Rural 20 25 Town 35 10

A student is chosen at random from the group. What is the probability that a female student from the rural area is chosen? A B

2 9 3 18

C D

5 18 2 3

13.6 Past Year SPM Questions 15. Twenty receipts with serial numbers from 11 to 30 are put into a bag. A receipt is drawn at random. Calculate the probability that the receipt drawn has a serial number which is not a multiple of 3. 13 7 A C 20 1 0 3 3 B D 5 4 November 2003 1. In a group of 90 students, 70 are girls. A further 10 boys then join the group. If a student is chosen at random from the group, State the probability that the student chosen is a boy. 2 1 A C 9 1 0

Probability I

7 9

3 1 0

November 2004 5. Diagram below shows some number cards. A card is picked at random. State the probability that a prime number is picked. 2 1 A C 3 2 1 1 B D 3 6 6. Irma has a collection of stamps from Kelantan, Perak and Sarawak. She picks one stamp at random. The probability of picking a Perak stamp 4 is and the probability of picking a Sarawak 9 stamp is 21 27 35 1 13 33 29 . Irma 3 has 10 Kelantan stamps. Calculate the total number of stamps in her collection. A 20 C 45 B 25 D 90 7. 20 coupons with serial number 21 to 40 are put in a box. One coupon is drawn at random. The probability of drawing a coupon with a number which is not a multiple of 5 is 1 3 A C 5 5 2 4 B D 5 5 July 2005 8. A bag contains 4 green balls, 2 red balls and 7 blue balls. A ball is picked at random from the bag. What is the probability that the ball picked is not green? 4 7 A. C. 1 3 1 3 6 9 B. D. 1 3 1 3 9. The table below shows the number of pupils in the science and art stream in one year group in a school. Stream Number of Pupils

2. A jar contains 240 sweets of orange, lychee, and coffee flavour. There are 90 orange flavoured sweets. If a sweet is picked at random from the jar, the probability of picking a lychee flavoured sweet 1 is . How many coffee flavoured sweets are 3 there? A 10 C 70 B 50 D 80

July 2004 3. A box contains a total of 60 pens. Some of them are red pens and some of them are blue pens. The probability of choosing a red pen from the box at 3 random is . Some red pens are taken out of the 5 box and replaced by the same number of blue pens. The probability of now choosing a red pen from 1 the box at random is . Calculate the number of 3 red pens that were taken out. A. 8 B. 12 C. 16 D. 20

4. A box contains a total of 90 Hari Raya, Christmas and Deepavali cards altogether. There are 38 Hari Raya cards in the box. The probability of picking a Christmas card from the box at 2 random is . Calculate the probability of 1 5 picking a Deepavali card. 1 1 3 A. C. 3 1 5 4 19 B. D. 9 45

Probability I

Science Arts

girls 80 64

Boys 116 x

The probability that a pupil is chosen at random 2 from the year group is a girl is . Calculate the 5 value of x A. 100 C. 132 B. 104 D. 156 10. A bag contains blue, red, green and yellow buttons. There are 2 blue buttons and 8 green buttons in the bag. A button is picked at random from the bag. The 1 probability of picking a blue button is and the 24 1 probability of picking a red button is . Find the 3 probability of picking a yellow button. 1 11 A. C. 6 24 5 13 B. D. 8 24

random from the container. The probability of 7 picking a yellow marble is . How many green 8 marbles are there in the container? A 4 C 21 B 8 D 24 July 2006 13. Ahmad buys three boxes of pens. Each box has 180 pens in it. All the pens are put inside a container. A pen is chosen at random from the container. The probability of choosing a spoilt pen 1 is . How many of the pens bought are not 90 spoilt? A. 531 C. 537 B. 534 D. 538 14. A box contains a number of red marbles and 6 blue marbles. A marble is chosen at random from the box. The probability of choosing a red marble 2 is . How many red marbles are there in the 5 box? A. 2 C. 4 B. 3 D. 9 November 2006 15. It is given that set G is {1,2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13, 14, 15}. A number is chosen at random from the elements of set G. Find the probability that the number chosen is a prime number.

November 2005 11. Table below shows the distribution of a group of 90 pupils playing a game. Form Four Form Five Girls 33 15 Boys 18 24 A pupil is chosen at random from the group to start the game. What is the probability that a girl from Form Four will be chosen? A B 11 30 7 1 5 C D 8 1 5 11 17

4 11 5 B. 11
A.

6 11 7 D. 11
C.

16. A box contains 4 red marbles, 2 white marbles and a number of blue marbles. A marble is chosen at random from the box. The probability of choosing a white marble is

1 . 8

12. A container holds 28 yellow marbles and a number of green marbles. A marbles is picked at

Find the probability of choosing a blue marble.

Probability I

10

1 4 3 B. 8
A.

5 8 3 D. 4
C.

A B C

SPM June 2007 17. Table shows the results of a Mathematics test for a group of students Boys Girls Pass 8 20 Fail 4 x

5 31 9 31 5 26 9 26

A student is chosen at random from the group. The probability of choosing a student who 1 failed the test is . 5 Find the value of x. A 1 B 3 C 4 D 5 18. 24 students in a class are computer club members. A student is chosen at random from the class. The probability of choosing a student 1 who is not a computer club member is . 3 Find the total number of students in the class. A B C D 32 36 40 72

20. In a training session, Ann has many trials to score a goal. The probability that Ann 9 . scores a goal in a trial is 20 In 60 trials chosen randomly, how many times does Ann fail to score a goal? A B C D 11 27 33 49

SPM Nov 2007 19. A box contains 5 red marbles and 21 green marbles. Lim puts another 4 red marbles and 1 green marble inside the box. A marble is chosen at random from the box. What is the probability that a red marble is chosen?

Probability I

11

SPM June 2008 21. Form Five Bestari had 40 students. When a student was chosen at random from this class, the probability of 3 choosing a girl was . 4 A group of girls is transferred to another class and replaced by 7 boys. A student is then chosen at random from this class. Calculate the probability of choosing a boy from this class. A B C D 17 47 10 47 17 43 10 43

23. A box contains 48 cups. There are blue cups and white cups. A cup is chosen at random from the box. The probability that a 1 blue cup is chosen is . 6 How many blue cups need to be added to the box so that the probability that a blue cup is 1 chosen is ? 2 A B C D 8 16 24 32

24. Diagram shows 16 identical cubes, labeled X, Y and Z.

Z X
Y Y

X X
Y Y

Y Y

Z X

22. Table shows the number of students in the Science stream and the Arts stream in a school. Stream Number of students Science 55 Arts 65

Z A cube is chosen at random. State the probability that the cube chosen is not labeled Y.

A A group of k students is transferred from the Arts stream to the Science stream. A student is chosen at random from the group. The probability of choosing a student from the 3 Science stream is . 5 Calculate the value of k. A B C D 17 26 33 72 B C D

3 16 5 16 7 16 9 16

Probability I

12