DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT

Contents 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Road Networks ............................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Pavement Maintenance .............................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Asset Management ..................................................................................................................... 2 2 DATA AND ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Profiles ........................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Profiles, Data and Profilers .......................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 Profile Variance .................................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2 International Roughness Index............................................................................................. 7 2.2.3 Inertial Profilers.................................................................................................................... 9 3 ANALYSIS, DIFFERENCES AND COMPARISSON ................................................................................. 10 3.1 Differences Between Analysis Techniques ................................................................................ 10 3.2 Similarities Between Techniques .............................................................................................. 10 4. FURTHER ANALYSIS FOR DERIVATION OF DETERIORATION MODEL ............................................... 12 4.1 Construction of Deterioration Model ........................................................................................ 12 4.2 Effect of Errors on Prediction Models ....................................................................................... 12 4.3 Other Factors Affecting Deterioration Model ........................................................................... 13 4.4 Minimizing Error ....................................................................................................................... 13 5 CONCLUSION.................................................................................................................................... 15 5.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 15 5.2 Proposal .................................................................................................................................... 15

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Road Networks Highway networks comprise the most crucial infrastructure of any country or state. Rapid growth in developed countries and the continuous need for time efficiency, regarding most if not all industries has resulted in transportation through vehicle media being essential for the wellbeing of every industry and inevitably every nation, meaning that such infrastructure directly affects the socioeconomic condition and development of every country. Therefore the wide use of most road networks and highway networks in particular, establishes safety and ride quality as top priorities. 1.2 Pavement Maintenance In order to preserve the condition of any network, maintenance must be undertaken. Such a procedure will require conservation of the quality of ride and concurrently the safety which a road provides. Due to the immense size of road infrastructure, the process of servicing requires major sums of money. Hence there is a great need to optimize these procedures, both in terms of timing and money, since maintenance becomes inevitable at some point in the life cycle of a road. 1.3 Asset Management Asset management is generally a very broad term with different interpretation and different understanding from different parties. The term itself could refer to a fixed asset, managed with various techniques, or targeting the right amount of money according to a single strategy (County Surveyors Society, 2004). Asset management is a procedure whereby a systematic process is applied to achieve a long term and cost effective solution. Additionally the overall process has to be strategic and be able to allocate the necessary resources to the right place at the right time, in order to maximise efficiency. These resources include strategies in all aspects, engineering, economic, management and business. Thus it will be possible to achieve continuous improvement framework, by the utilisation of technological means (County Surveyors Society, 2004). As managing administrations become increasingly more constrained by

parameters which cannot control or foresee the necessity for accuracy becomes 2

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis crucial. The continuous limiting of budgets results in a serious shortage both in personnel and economic resources (County Surveyors Society, 2004). Therefore, it is crucial to develop known technological and analytical techniques to maximise the efficiency of road maintenance and assure no unnecessary work is done without jeopardizing the safety of the roads.

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis 2 DATA AND ANALYSIS 2.1 Profiles A profile is a section of the road surface, which stretches along a line and can be both longitudinal and lateral. Both types of profiles can be useful for assessing the condition and quality of the road surface and roughness (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998).

Fig 1. Road Profiles (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998) Longitudinal profiles, illustrate the deviation of the surface of the pavement along the distance it stretches. It is difficult to repeat the same profile twice, although it is highly dependent on the size of the profiler instrument. In order for the most representative profile to be produced therefore, and counteract for the multiple profiles possible on a single stretch of road, measurements are usually recorded along wheel track positions, although accuracy can be further increased by increasing profile lines (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998). 2.2 Profiles, Data and Profilers 2.2.1 Roughness Variance Profiles are represented graphically in terms of an indicator for the condition and surface smoothness of the road. One of the main variants used is Roughness Variance (RV). Following the recording of the longitudinal profile data, by means of a profiler (e.g SCANNER), it is essential to analyse the data, and investigate the wavelength content of the profile. By processing these data further, using 5

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis mathematical equations it will be possible to compute the profile variance (Jamienson, 2008). What profile variance essentially illustrates, is the effect the roughness of the pavement has on any vehicle driving onto it. This is associated with the wavelengths and their range when vehicle suspension interacts with the road surface. This technique investigates the variations in the profile and its moving average, over a selected moving average length. In the United Kingdom there are three averaging lengths used, 3m, 10m and 30m (Jamienson, 2008).

Fig 2. Measured Profile and Profile Variance (Jamienson, 2008) These different average moving lengths are specifically assessed to represent different features of the quality of the vehicle ride. Variance of 3m average length corresponds to the investigation of smaller undulations on the surface of the pavement, which are more sensed at lower speeds, while 30m average length values correspond for higher speeds. Average length of 10m is used as an average between the two. SCANNER Defects Index Working Group suggests the use of a weighing factor for the above, in the case where SCANNER Road Condition Indicator is to be calculated. These weighing factors are 0.8 for 3m variance and 0.4 for 10m variance. UK department of transport suggest a factor of 0.6 for 10m variance for the same calculation (Benbow et. al, 2006)

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis This method is highly influenced by geometrical factors, especially as the variance length is increased. In order to reduce this there has been an effort to include filters into the whole procedure, to produce the enhanced variance which limits the influence of geometry and similar parameters onto the output. This technique has, since 2004, been established as the standard technique in the UK (Benbow et. al, 2006). When graphically representing these data, it is suggested that, threshold levels are assessed and set by the corresponding authority, although there are indicated levels in the Highways Agency Interim Advice Note 42/02. All values below the lower threshold are automatically changed to 0 and those above the higher threshold are given the value of 100. The values which lie in between are scaled using a linear factor (Benbow et. al, 2006). 2.2.2 International Roughness Index A more internationally used approach of investigating road condition is by means of the International Roughness Index or IRI. In the 1970s the World Bank financed the development of IRIs in order to assess whether developing countries should spend large sums of money in the construction of new infrastructure, or whether it was possible to sustain the road networks they had and save assets for other development (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998). Following this development it was then realised that, due to the differences in techniques, equipment, weather conditions and other factors, it was impossible at the time to compare roughness data from different countries. As a result the World Bank set out an investigation in 1982 to make a calibration and correlation for these measurements. This gave rise to the measuring scale of in/mi, proven to be the most suitable for all measurement instruments (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998). After rigorous research mathematical implementations and computational

methods have been introduced to the technique of calculating IRIs. Perhaps the most fundamental part of these techniques is the use of a quarter car model, which represents the response of the suspension of one wheel of a vehicle. This allows the representation of the true profile and the vehicle response according to surface roughness, and additionally is an indicator of vehicle running cost on

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis that specific road, ride quality, surface condition and dynamic loading effects from heavy vehicles and sudden braking (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998).

Fig 3. Quarter car model (Shahin, 2005)

Fig 4. Different values of IRIs for different types of road (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998)

As can be seen from Fig 4 as the road investigated becomes rougher and has much more surface deviations the value of the IRI increases. Essentially a value of 0m/km would describe the perfect road and a value above 8m/km represents a pavement accessible only at low speeds (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998).

Fig 5 IRI values for a specific road (Benbow et. al. 2006) 8

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis 2.2.3 Inertial Profilers A particularly important technique of assessing the quality of the road roughness, apart from the use of laser or ultrasonic SCANNER, is the use of an inertial profiler. This technique allows for the investigation to be carried out at higher speeds, representing the service speed of a road. When retracting data by means of an inertial profiler, it is essential to carry out investigations at speeds faster than 15km/h since at lower speeds the operation of the system is compromised and are not as representative. Shahin (2005) breaks down the constituents of the inertial profiler in four major components. These are, a height sensor, necessary to record the height of the vehicle from the pavement surface, an accelerometer recording the vertical accelerations of the vehicle, a distance measuring system and a computer. The acceleration data recorded are processed by double integration, and the vertical displacement given by this process is then processed by the computer to give the displacement at each chainage point along the road. This value is reduced by subtracting the height of the vehicle from the pavement at each point recorded and the final profile is then presented, usually in terms of IRI or RV (Shanhin, 2005).

Fig 6. Inertial Profiler (Sayers, Karamichas, 1998)

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis 3 ANALYSIS, DIFFERENCES AND COMPARISSON 3.1 Differences Between Analysis Techniques Similar to any experimental and analytical technique, the techniques of measuring profiles are highly influenced by errors. Apart from the risk of human errors, miscalculations and equipment defects, these techniques have characteristic idiosyncrasies which can affect their significance and utilisation. Roughness Variance clearly shows a large difference in values obtained from specific investigations in New Zealand, compared to those in the UK. For a specific test the corresponding values for three wavelengths were: 3m wavelength 10m wavelength 30m wavelength 0mm2-120mm2 0mm2-7000mm2 0mm2-250000mm2

These

show

dramatic

difference

from

the

UK

threshold

criteria

for

maintenance. This difference is not constant but rather ranges from being 10 times bigger for 3m wavelengths to 1000 times bigger for 30m wavelengths. This is explained as a result of the influence of geometry on the calculation of profile variance and suggests that this should be taken into account, upon further analysis. Although there is a large difference between these values and UK threshold values, no other indicator suggests the bad condition of the road since truck response data do not suggest poor truck ride, according to the UK discomfort factor criteria (Jamienson, 2008). There is a strong suggestion by the above data that the UK standards cannot be applied internationally and that due to other factors there may be necessary to modify this technique accordingly in an attempt to make it global (Jamienson, 2008). 3.2 Similarities Between Techniques Benbow, Nesnas and Wright (2006) carried out an investigation where for the same data, IRIs and profile variance was calculated. In the procedure of recording the data, passengers were asked to record points were they felt discomfort and were they sensed the unevenness of the road. This test is a comparison between profile variance, IRIs and human perception. 10

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis Contrary to what was described earlier, there was a good correlation between the three variables, implying the ability of profile variance to be used globally, since it results in a common profile to the IRI which has been developed for use internationally.

Fig 7. Comparison of IRIs and Profile Variance for the same road (Benbow et. al, 2006) As illustrated in figure 7, there is good agreement between results and an encouraging visual relationship of dial presses, considering that there is expected delay due to human response time (Benbow et. al, 2006).

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DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis 4. FURTHER ANALYSIS FOR DERIVATION OF DETERIORATION MODEL 4.1 Construction of Deterioration Model Following the assessment of experimental information and mathematical computations, constructing a road profile, is then possible to make direct decisions concerning the maintenance requirements of a road at that point. The question which then arises is whether it is possible to manipulate these data to produce estimation for the behaviour of the road, and to what extent this can be utilised in order to assess an asset management system and use this data in order to save assets according to these predictions. 4.2 Effect of Errors on Prediction Models Producing a prediction model is highly influenced by the quality of the available data and their abundance, since the ability of producing such a model is dependent on the quantity and quantity of data. The ability of an assessor to prepare and analyse historical data by several methods, will also have a great impact on the error of the estimation and the extent of reliability of the model as illustrated in figure 8 (Byrne, Parry, 2009).

Fig 8. Error in final estimation (Byrne, Parry, 2009) Furthermore, any effects of miscalculations and misinterpretations of present data will have an effect on their future applications. In such case there will be extra error in the prediction, which will be imposed to the model. Figure 9 shows the impact of such error on the prediction model. So far prediction models have been assumed to be linear and the effect of error factors and very similar. This is not the case (Byrne, Parry, 2009). 12

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis

Fig 9. Effect of present and future errors on prediction model (Byrne, Parry, 2009) Deterioration is non-linear, and in such case there will be an additional effect which will alter the value of by an extent of x (where x is a factor) due to the effect of current data errors in the estimation error. Therefore, it can be argued that it is much more important, according to what was mentioned earlier, to give more attention to the errors and miscalculations of current data, rather than focusing on the competence of a deterioration model, since current data will have a major effect on the derivation of the result (Byrne, Parry, 2009). 4.3 Other Factors Affecting Deterioration Model Frequency of measurements has a significant effect on the quality of a deterioration model. Absence of data, obligates the assessor to extrapolate data from older records increasing the risk of error occurrence which will be dependent on the competence of the extrapolation technique and the quality of the historic data (Byrne, Parry, 2009). 4.4 Minimizing Error In the process of the computation of a reliable technique for predicting the deterioration rates of different roads, researchers have produced data mining criteria, in order to exclude outliers from the data pool. By using such techniques, the competence of the information retrieved from such model can be quantified, since there has been an exclusion of outliers and miscalculations. Therefore it will be possible to produce much more accurate models, reducing errors and inaccuracies and promote a much more efficient process of asset management (Byrne, Parry, 2009). 13

DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis Complicated mining algorithms, such as the Minimum Message Length Two Dimensional Segmenter and advanced computer software have been developed and are under development. These techniques are responsible for minimizing the effect of errors on the forecasting procedure. Utilising them will allow for the most reliable information to be retracted for a given road, according to data derived from present and past records (Byrne, Parry, 2009).

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DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis 5 CONCLUSION 5.1 Discussion Current economic conditions and the rapid change of public expectation from the road networks in developed countries, have led to the demand of producing a model which can predict when any road will require maintenance, in advance. Shortage of budgets and other resources have led governments and other institutions to promote initiatives which will allow for accurate forecasting road maintenance requirements and timing. From the above analysis it is evident that Highway Asset Management can be highly dependent on specific and complicated techniques which give rise to the most suitable management of maintenance timing and cost. There has been extensive research on the ways of analysis and an abundance of techniques is available to derive decisions based on them. Therefore it is possible to calculate accurate predictions for the deterioration of a road and plan according to these, in order to manage a countrys finances and be prepared for maintenance without jeopardising the economic balance or the safety of the network. 5.2 Proposal Utilising more than one techniques of data collection, (ie SCANNER and Inertial Profiler) it will be possible to create a forecasting model which will implement both the ride quality as perceived by the passenger and the pavement quality, derived from laser or ultrasonic inspection. By combining the two it is considered that it will be possible, using analysis techniques and data processing mentioned earlier, to produce a grading model for the deterioration of a road. This model will be used as a reference to the deterioration rate of a road and also give an indication of the effect of rehabilitation or maintenance on a specific road and its different segments, therefore acting as a planning tool not only for asset management in terms of maintenance but asset management in terms if inspection and investigation since it will allow for monitoring using these complicated techniques when they will be necessary. Word Count: 2,886

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DATA ANALYSIS FOR PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT Marios Papayiannis

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