Hydrological Assessment Impact of Hurricanes Dennis and Emily on Flooding in the Moneague Lake Area

Water Resources Authority Hope Gardens P.O. Box 91 Kingston 7

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................1

Background..................................................................................................................................1 Objective......................................................................................................................................1 History of Occurrence of the Moneague Lake.............................................................................1 Location and Physiography..........................................................................................................1 Hydrology....................................................................................................................................3
Legend............................................................................................................................................................................4 Rainfall Associated With Hurricane Dennis..............................................................................................................4 Flooding..........................................................................................................................................................................6

Rise in Groundwater Levels.........................................................................................................6 Spring Flows................................................................................................................................9

2.0Flood Monitoring...................................................................................................................................................12 Conclusion and Recommendations............................................................................................................................12 Bibliography................................................................................................................................................................13 Plate 1...........................................................................................................................................................................15 Plate 2...........................................................................................................................................................................15 Plate 3...........................................................................................................................................................................16 Plate 4...........................................................................................................................................................................16 Plate 4...........................................................................................................................................................................17 Plate 5...........................................................................................................................................................................17

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

1.0

Introduction

Background Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricanes Dennis and Emily in July 2005 resulted in the rising and ponding of water in the Moneague Lake Area, which lead to the inundation of a section of the main thoroughfare and a number of houses in the community. There was a similar rising and ponding of water in the community after the passage of Hurricane Ivan in September 2004, which was also due to heavy rainfall in the area, however there was no inundation of the main road and any of the houses that are now affected. Water that was ponded after Hurricane Ivan was not fully drained prior to the passage of Hurricanes Dennis and Emily and could have exacerbated the flooding that now exist. In December 2004, the community raised concerns regarding the ponding of water in the area when an 8-year old boy from the community drowned in one of the depressions. The Minister of Water and Housing requested the Water Resources Authority (WRA) to conducted this hydrological investigation of the impact of Hurricanes Dennis and Emily on the flooding in the Moneague District. Objective The objectives of the investigation are to assess the magnitude and expected duration of the flooding above the normal lake levels caused by these extreme events and to make suitable recommendations for minimizing their impacts. The scope of the investigation includes reviewing past reports on flooding in the area, mapping the area flooded by these events, determining the change in storage of the lake, and the inflow rates from the Rio Hoe. History of Occurrence of the Moneague Lake The known history of the Moneague Lake and its risings goes back to 1678. From the 1800s the Lake has risen seven times namely in 1804, 1810, 1863, 1874, 1886, 1917, and 1933. On the three last recorded occasions, the annual rainfall was more than 105 inches (266.7mm). These are 110in (279.4mm), 124in (314.96mm), and 128in (325.12mm) for 1886, 1917 and 1933 respectively (Technical Report 4, Groundwater Surveys in Two areas of the Interior,
Summary of Findings of Hydrologic Reconnaissance on Moneague Area, UNDP/FAO, 1972).

The most recent rise of the Moneague Lake was in 2004 after Hurricane Ivan. Location and Physiography The Moneague District is located in east-central St. Ann. The Moneague Lake constitutes three main depressions east of the district and is
Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005 1

surrounded by a landscape that rises steeply to the crest of Mount Diablo to the south and on the east and west by terrain that is equally rapid. Northward, the boundary is a low ridge through Walkers Wood. Within these boundaries, the landscape is gently sloping with elevations ranging from approximately 300 to 320 metres a.m.s.l. while the peripheral areas rise to about 460 metres. The Rio Hoe rises east of the depressions at the Riverhead Spring and flows in a north-northwest direction and sinks at Walton. A topographic map of the area showing the depressions and the Rio Hoe is presented in Appendix A.

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

Hydrology The Moneague sub-basin is located in the Dry Harbour Mountains Hydrologic Basin and is topographically controlled by a drainage area of approximately 26km2 [1]. The UNDP/FAO report1 estimates the sub-surface drainage area to be about 137km2[1] based on the assumption that the perimeter of the subsurface drainage lies along the outer limits of the peaks of the ridges that surround the lake area1. However the high nitrate content in the Rio Hoe River suggests that there is also sub-surface flow from Mount Rosser. The region is underlain by the Walderston-Browns Town White Limestone Formation (Map 1), which is classified as an aquifer. An aquifer is a saturated permeable geologic unit that can store and transmit enough water to yield economic quantities to wells or springs under ordinary hydraulic gradients. The limestone is very karstified and shows extensive faulting and fracturing that follows a general E W and NE SW pattern (Map 1). The area is also characterized by the occurrence of numerous sinkholes, which according to the UNDP/FAO report on Groundwater Surveys in the Moneague Area, 19721, constitute the most common topographic form in the karstic terrain and that there is a tendency for them to be concentrated along the fault and fracture zones. These features significantly increase the permeability of the limestone and allow nearly all rainfall to infiltrate into the sub-surface and join the groundwater reservoir instead of running off the surface to the depressions. Under conditions of excessive rainfall, the capacity of the underground reservoir may be exceeded and hence force groundwater levels to rise to or above the land surface in the depressions forming a lake in the basin. Sinkholes may also reverse flow leading to increased flooding in the area.
Map 1: Geology Map of the Moneague Area

Technical Report 4, Groundwater Surveys in Two areas of the Interior, Summary of Findings of Hydrologic Reconnaissance on Moneague Area, UNDP/FAO, 1972. Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005
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Legend Faults Owb Walderston Browns Town Limestone Fm.

Highly impermeable bauxitic clay that may vary in thickness from a few feet to over 100ft[1] overlies the karstic limestone in the Moneague Lake Area and impedes water ponded in the lake from infiltrating into the sub-surface. Many of the sinkholes are also blocked by soil brought in as mud and clay from the weathered tuffs from the higher Cretaceous Inlier1 as well as from other possible activities such as farming and housing development. The UNDP/FAO report1 mapped 67 sinkholes in the lake area with remarks that it is probably not the full total as many suspected depressions were not included in the count and that some may have been covered by soil and vegetation. Some of these sinkholes may act as areas of upwelling whenever there is significant rise in the water level in the area. Rainfall Associated With Hurricane Dennis Rainfall data provided by the Meteorological (MET) Office from rainfall stations in Northern St. Catherine was used to analyze the impact of rainfall associated with Hurricane Dennis in the Moneague District. The rainfall data obtained showed 3-day totals for the period July 6 8, 2005 and how they compare with the 30-year (1951 1980) monthly mean for the respective stations (Table 1).
Table 1: Rainfall Associated with Hurricane Dennis in Northern St. Catherine RAINFALL RECORDED ON JULY 6-8, 2005 Three 30- Year Date 3-Day
Rainfall Depth Day (1951-1980)

PARISH/STATION

24 Hour Return

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

(mm) Monthly Mean 6th 7th 8th Total Northern St. Catherine (mm) (mm) 8.0 155.5 36.0 199.5 152 Bybrook (Trade Winds) 25.0 269.0 90.0 384.0 152 Charm Hole (Worthy Park) 20.0 236.0 16.0 272.0 154 Enfield 17.3 207.2 36.0 260.5 140 Grass Piece 19.0 212.0 25.4 256.4 180 New Hall 14.0 222.0 22.5 258.5 178 New Works 11.1 230.2 67.0 308.3 121 Swansea " 15.0 155.0 23.0 193.0 151 Wakefield " 10.0 140.0 50.0 200.0 118 Worthy Park Estate Source: National Meteorological (MET) Office (Jamaica).

Percentage Period on of Mean the 7th 131 253 <25 177 <25 186 142 145 <10 255 128 <5 169 <5

The data shows the average 3-day total rainfall to be 259mm with a minimum of 193mm at the Wakefield station and a maximum of 384mm at Charm Hole station in Worthy Park. When compared with the 30-year monthly mean, the 3-day total exceeded the monthly mean by a minimum of 128% at the Wakefield station and a maximum of 255% at the Swansea station. The Swansea rainfall station recorded the second highest rainfall depth (308.3mm) for the three days. The 3-day totals, when compared to the annual rainfall for the periods of risings in Section 1.3, were, on average, approximately 50mm less than the total annual rainfall for those years. The 3-day total rainfall at the Charm Hole rainfall station was greater than the total annual historical rainfalls for which the lake rose. Return periods were estimated for the July 7, 2005 24-hour rainfall for each of the above stations from the Met Office Table of Return Periods based on data up to 1987. The return periods did not exceed 25yrs at any of the stations listed in Table 1. The highest return periods (< 25yrs) were computed at the Charm Hole and Enfield rainfall stations. Map 2 shows the locations of the rainfall stations in North St. Catherine relative to the Moneague District, the area impacted by flooding.
Map 2: Location of Rainfall Stations in N. St. Catherine Relative to the Moneague District

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

Flooding The flooding in Moneague seems to have resulted from the combined effect of elevated groundwater levels (Table 2) in the aquifer that was expressing itself on the surface as springs, and increase flow from the Rio Hoe River into the Moneague Lake. Rise in Groundwater Levels The elevated groundwater level was as a result of heavy rainfall in the recharge areas for the Rio Hoe and the Lake. Groundwater levels in the aquifer as measured in several boreholes in the area are shown in Table 2. The table illustrates that groundwater levels had risen by as much as 9m (30ft) since July 2004 and 24m (80ft) since June 2000. The average rise in groundwater levels for the stations listed is 7m and 20.81m since July 2004 and June 2000 respectively.
Table 2: Groundwater Levels in the Moneague Area (June 2002 July 2005) GROUNDWATER LEVELS (GWL) (m) amsl RISE IN GWL (m) BOREHOLES

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

Ground Elevatio Borehohe #1 Borehole #2A Borehole #3 Borehole #3A Borehole #4 (Hadden) Borehole #5 (Walkers Wood) Borehole #6 (Walkers Wood) Borehole #7 (Walkers Wood) Borehole #8 (Walkers Wood) Borehole (Unity Valley) Borehole #9 (Hopewell) Borehole #10 (Friendship) Borehole #11 (Endeavour) Borehole #12 332.94 313.34 310.64 310.29 397.53 375.52 372.20 346.98 398.29 343.81 355.40 353.56 330.76 409.04

June 2000 289.2 6 281.3 3 277.3 5 364.2 4 247.2 4 262.3 5 234.3 3 313.7 1 207.8 8 293.0 3 260.8 6 258.7 1 267.8 2 290.1 3

Pre Hurricane Ivan (July 2004) 303.30 295.29 290.05 376.94 263.77 275.89 246.15 326.51 220.86 306.11273.18 268.44 282.81 305.73

Post Hurricane Ivan (Oct. 2004) 308.32 300.78 295.84 382.75 268.04 268.69 246.58 327.03 221.31

Post Hurricane Dennis & Emily (July 2005) 310.34 302.41 299.05 385.96 271.50 281.89 251.70 332.08 227.40 -

Jul 04 Jul 05

Jun 00 Jul 05

21.0 8 21.0 8 21.7 0 21.7 2 24.2 6 19.5 4 17.3 7 18.3 7 19.5 2 18.4 2 14.6 2 22.9 2 22.9 0

7.04 7.12 9.00 9.02 7.73 6.00 5.55 5.57 6.54 6.10 4.89 7.93 7.30

273.53 268.62 284.99 307.03

279.28 273.33 290.74 313.03

Figure 1 presents a graphical illustration of the difference in the groundwater levels for July 2004 (pre Hurricane Ivan) and July 2005 (post Hurricanes Dennis and Emily).

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

Groundw ater Levels (GWL) - Moneague Pre - Ivan (Jul 04) - Post Dennis & Em ily (Jul 05)
P re Hurricane Ivan (J uly 2004) 400.00 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 1 50.00 1 00.00 50.00 0.00 P ost Hurricane Dennis & Emily (J uly 2005)

Boreholes

Figure 1: Graphical Illustration of Rise in the Groundwater Levels in Moneague

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

Spring Flows The springs that arise flow into depressions #3 and #2 (Map 2a), which act akin to detention ponds. Once the capacities of the depressions are exceeded, they flow into main depression #1 as illustrated by the blue arrows. Depression #2 flows into depression #1 via a culvert constructed under the road at Point A (Map 2b). The flow from depression #2 was however backed up as a result of elevated water levels in the main depression #1 which was caused by increased discharge from the Rio Hoe (Table 3) into the depression as well as possible upwellings and a high water table in the Lake area. This backwater effect on depression #2 caused elevated water levels and lateral spreading in the depression, which resulted in the inundation of up to 1.2m (4ft) of a section of the roadway and impacting approximately 3 houses. Residents say that sometimes there is reverse flow from the main depression #1 into depression #2 however this was not observed. Photographs of areas inundated are shown in Appendix B
Map 2a: Moneague Lake Extent of Inundation

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

Map 2b:

Main Area Impacted by Flooding

The discharge from the springs that arise and flow into depressions #3 and #2 were not determined, however three flow measurements were done on the Rio Hoe and are presented in Table 3. The measurements on June 10 and 14 are pre- and post- Hurricane Dennis respectively. The flow on November 22, 2001 is the highest flow measured on the river in recent time.
Table 3: Flow Measurements on the Rio Hoe DATE OF MEASUREMENT June 10, 2005 July 14, 2005 November 22, 2001 DISCHARGE (m3/s) (ft3/s) 1.16 40.89 4.60 162.62 5.12 180.75

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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2.0

Flood Monitoring

A staff gauge was setup in the main depression #1 (Plate 1 - Appendix) on July 26, 2005 to monitor the rise and fall in the water levels. The initial gauge reading was set at 0.30m. Subsequent gauge readings on July 30 and August 3 indicate that the water level fell by 0.067m, which approximates to 0018m/day. The gauge readings are presented in Table 4. There was also indication that the flow in the Rio Hoe was falling, as the staff gauge, which was covered by approximately 0.61m of water, was visible on August 3, 2005 and had a gauge reading of 8.96m. With the maximum gauge height being 9.25m, the fall in water level at the Rio Hoe between July 30 and August 3 was 0.29m or approximately 0.073m per day.
Table 4 DATE (2005) Gauge readings of Flood Levels at the Moneague Lake GAUGE HEIGHT (m) Rio Hoe July 26 July 30 August 3 August 19 Gauge covered by app. 0.61 of water Gauge covered by app. 0.61 of water 8.96 8.76 Lake 0.30 0.30 0.24 -0.079 RISE OR FALL (m) Rio Lake Hoe 0 -0.90 -0.20 0 -0.067 -0.38 RATE OF RISE OR FALL (m/day) Rio Hoe 0 -0.23 0.01 Lake 0 0.018 0.018

Conclusion and Recommendations The Moneague Lake Area constitutes natural depressions that pond water from springs that arise as a result of elevated water table in the aquifer after heavy and prolonged rainfall. The ponded water takes a long time to recede due to the highly impermeable bauxitic clay that overlies the limestone aquifer and the blocked sinkholes that naturally drain the area. Monitoring activities indicate that the water level peaked at approximately 1.2m or 4ft on July 30 and is falling slowly at approximately 0.018m per day. At this rate of fall and assuming that the depth of inundation to the road level has a uniform surface area, it is estimated that the water will take 67days from July 30, 2005, that is, it will take until the first week in October 2005 to recede to the level of the road provided that no significant rainfall occur in the area. The water in the depressions will remain for a much longer period before it is fully receded. The UNDP/FAO report on Groundwater Surveys in the Moneague Area, 1972, suggest that the lake is likely to remain for more than a year before it drains away because of the limited capacity of the sinkholes. The flooding will also be exacerbated if events akin to Hurricanes Dennis and Emily, in terms of the rainfall intensity, should occur before there are significant reductions in the water levels in the depressions.
Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005 12

It is therefore recommended that: 1. future housing development should not be allowed within the areas currently inundated or below an elevation of 320 metres (1,050ft) a.m.s.l. 2. the main thoroughfare through the community, in the areas that were inundated, to be raised by 1.5 to 2 metres to allow access to the community for the present and future floods. Bibliography
1. Technical Report 4, Groundwater Surveys in Two areas of the Interior, Summary of Findings of Hydrologic Reconnaissance on Moneague Area, UNDP/FAO, 1972.

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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APPENDIX B Photo Gallery

Plate 1 Staff Gauge being installed by members of the community supervised by a WRA officer.

Plate 2 Section of main thoroughfare where a culvert exist to allow flow from depression #2 into the main depression #1

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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Plate 3 Another section of the Main thoroughfare inundated up to 1.2m (4ft). This section of the road was impassable.

Plate 4 Houses inundated

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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Plate 4 Rio Hoe at Riverhead. Water is noticeably turbid

Plate 5 Local farmer filling his tank from the lake

Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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Hydrological Assessment, Moneague Lake, Post Hurricane Dennis and Emily WRA HBIX 9, August 2005

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