GCE Examinations Advanced Subsidiary / Advanced Level

Statistics Module S2

Paper D

MARKING GUIDE

This guide is intended to be as helpful as possible to teachers by providing concise solutions and indicating how marks should be awarded. There are obviously alternative methods that would also gain full marks. Method marks (M) are awarded for knowing and using a method. Accuracy marks (A) can only be awarded when a correct method has been used. (B) marks are independent of method marks.

Written by Shaun Armstrong & Chris Huffer

Solomon Press
These sheets may be copied for use solely by the purchasers institute.

S2 Paper D Marking Guide

1. (a) F(5) = 1 k(95 25 34) = 1; 36k = 1 k = P(X > 4) = 1 F(4) 1 = 1 36 (76 16 34) = f(x) = F (x) = f(x) =
1 36 1 36 1 36

M1 A1 M1 A1 M1 A1

(b)

5 18

(c)

(19 2x) 2 x 5, otherwise.

(19 2x),

0, 2. (a) (b) (c)

A1 B1 B2 B1 B2 B1 B2 B1
1 2

(7)

Poisson e.g. J occurs singly, at random, at constant rate continuous uniform e.g. initial lengths random equal chance of any length 0 to 3 left over binomial e.g. fixed no. of spins, two outcomes, fixed prob. of head H0 : p =
1 2

(9)

3.

(a) (b)

H1 : p

1 2

let X = no. with mobile phones X ~ B(25, P(X 7) = 0.0216; P(X 17) = 0.9784 C.R. is X 7 or X 18

M1 M1 A1 A1 A1 B1 M1 A1 M1 A1 M1 M1 M1 A1 A1 M1 A1 A1 (10) (9)

(c) (d)

0.0216 + 0.0216 = 0.0432 H0 : p =

1 2

H1 : p <

1 2

P(X 8) = 0.0539 more than 5% not significant 4. (a) (b) let X = no. of sales per week X ~ Po(8) P(X 4) = 0.0996 let Y = no. of sales per day Y ~ Po( 4 ) 3 P(Y > 2) = 1 P(Y 2) =1 e

4 3

(1 +

4 3

( 4 )2 3 2

= 1 0.8494 = 0.1506 (4sf) (c) P(X 12) = 0.9362; P(X 13) = 0.9658 need 13 in stock

S2D MARKS page 2

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5.

(a) (b) (c)

13

1 90

13 90

or 0.1444 (4sf)
1 90 1 9 1 9

M1 A1 M1 A1 A1 ) ( 1 )2( 8 )8] 9 9 M1 M1 M1 A1 A1 (10)

P(44.5 to 45.5) P(< 10) = 10

1 90

let X = no. of times < 10 X ~ B(10, P(X > 2) = 1 P(X 2) = 1 [( 8 )10 + 10( 1 )( 8 )9 + 9 9 9 = 1 0.9094 = 0.0906 (3sf) 6. (a) (b)

10 9 2

let X = no. absent per lesson X ~ Po(2.5) P(X 6) = 1 P(X 5) = 1 0.9580 = 0.0420 assumes absences occur independently and at constant rate ill students may infect others and rate may vary at different times of year but assumptions fairly reasonable registers for all classes let Y = no. absent per 30 lessons Y ~ Po(75) use N approx. A ~ N(75, 75) P(Y 96) P(A > 95.5) = P(Z > 95.5 75 ) = P(Z > 2.367)
75

M1 A1

B3 B1 M1 M1 M1 A1 A1 A1 M1 M1 A1 (12)

(c) (d)

= 1 0.9909 = 0.0091 less than 5% significant, there is evidence of more absent per lesson 7. (a)

k[ 1 t3 3t2 + 9t] 0 = 1 3 k[(9 27 + 27) (0)] = 1; 9k = 1; k = (b) f(t) 1

1 9

k
0

k(t 3)2 dt = 1
3

t2 6t + 9 dt = 1
3

M1 A1

O (c) E(T) = = =

3 t 1 (t 3)2 dt = 9 [ 1 t4 2t3 + 4 [(
81 4

x
1 9

B3

3 0

1 9 1 9

54 +
3 4

9 2 3 t ]0 2 81 ) (0)] 2

3 0

t3 6t2 + 9t dt
3 4

M1 A1

M1 A1 A1

mean time = (d) E(S) =

10 = 7.5 s
1 12

= =

2 0

1 s 12 (8 s3) ds =

1 12 1 12

[4s2 + [(16
4 5

1 5 2 s ]0 5 32 ) 5

2 0

8s s4 ds

M1 A1

(0)] =

4 5

M1 A1 A1 Total (18) (75)

new mean =

10 = 8 s increased by 0.5 s

Solomon Press

S2D MARKS page 3

Performance Record S2 Paper D

Question no. Topic(s)

1
c.d.f., p.d.f.

2
modelling

3
binomial, hyp. test

4
Poisson

5
rect. dist., binomial

6
Poisson, hyp. test., sampling, N approx.

7
p.d.f., mean

Total

Marks Student

10

10

12

18

75

S2D MARKS page 4

Solomon Press