20 years to the month since the ussR fell apart, crowds of young people have taken to the streets of moskva, protesting against the ruling United Russia Party. The immediate trigger for this crisis was the rigging of the parliamentary elections on December 4th, But the causes lie far deeper. The ruling regime started to its le-gitimacy just as Vladimir Putin, the country's prime minister, declared a final victory for "stability"
20 years to the month since the ussR fell apart, crowds of young people have taken to the streets of moskva, protesting against the ruling United Russia Party. The immediate trigger for this crisis was the rigging of the parliamentary elections on December 4th, But the causes lie far deeper. The ruling regime started to its le-gitimacy just as Vladimir Putin, the country's prime minister, declared a final victory for "stability"
20 years to the month since the ussR fell apart, crowds of young people have taken to the streets of moskva, protesting against the ruling United Russia Party. The immediate trigger for this crisis was the rigging of the parliamentary elections on December 4th, But the causes lie far deeper. The ruling regime started to its le-gitimacy just as Vladimir Putin, the country's prime minister, declared a final victory for "stability"
MOSCOW This week's elections and upheavals in Russia show how hard it is, 20 years after the system collapsed, for the country to put away its Soviet past T WENTY years to the month since the So_viet Union fell apart, crowds of an- gry young people have taken to the streets of Moscow, protesting against the ruling United Russia Party ("the party of crooks and thieves") and chanting "Russia with- out Putin!" Hundreds have been detained, and the army has been brought into the of Moscow "to provide security". Although the numbers are a far cry from the half-million who thronged the streets to bury the ussR, these were the biggest protests in recent years. The immediate trigger for this crisis was the rigging of the parliamentary elections on December 4th (see page ss). But the causes lie far deeper. The ruling regime started to its le- gitimacy just as Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, declared a final victory for "stability", promised to return to the Krem- lin as president and pledged to rebuild a Eurasian Union with former Soviet repub- lics. The Soviet flavour of all this had been . underscored at United Russia's party con- . gress at the end of November, where Mr Putin was nominated for the presidency. "We need a strong, brave and able leader ... And we have such a man: it is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin," enthused a film di- rector. A steelworker told the congress how Mr Putin had "lifted our factory from its knees" and supported it "with his wise ad- vice". A single mother with 19 children thanked Mr Putin for a "bright future". Such parallels with the now idealised late Soviet era were supposed to be one of Mr Putin's selling points. No tiresome po- litical debate, fairly broad personal free- doms, shops full of food: wasn't that what people wanted? Instead, unthinkably, Mr Putin has been booed: first by an audience at a martial-arts event on November 2oth, then at many polling stations, and now on the streets. The Soviet rhetoric conjured an anti-Soviet response. According to Lev Gudkov of the Levada Centre, an independent polling-research organisation, this reaction against the mo- nopolistic, corrupt and authoritarian re- gime is itself part of a Soviet legacy. It is dri- . ven by the lack of alternatives rather than a common vision for change. For Russia is still a hybrid state. It is smaller, more con- sumerist and less collective than the Soviet Union. But while the ideology has gone, the mechanism for sustaining political power remains. Key institutions, including . courts, police and security services, televi- sion and education, are used by bureau- crats to maintain their own power and wealth. The presidential administration, an unelected body, still occupies the build- ing (and place) of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. Morf important, the Soviet mental soft- ware has proved much more durable than the ideology itself. When, in 1989, a group of sociologists led by Yuri Levada began to study what they called Soviet Man, an arti- ficial construct of doublethink, paternal- ism, suspicion and isolationism, they thought he was vanishing. Over the next 20 years they realised that Homo sovieti- cus had mutated and reproduced, acquir- ing, along the way, new characteristics such as cynicism and aggression. This is not some genetic legacy, but the result of institutional restrictions and the skewed economic and moral stimuli propagated by the Kremlin. This mental software was not a genera- . tional feature, as the Levada group at first suspected. The elections were rigged in Moscow not only by middle-aged people with Soviet memories, but by thousands of pro-Kremlin younger folk gathered from across the country and dispatched to cast multiple ballots around the city. Symboli- cally, they made their camp in an empty pavilion of the Stalinist Exhibition of Peo- ple's Achievements. Most of them had no memories of the Soviet Union; they were born after it had ceased to exist. Yet the election results also revealed the reluctance of a large part of Russian society to carry on with the present system. Thou- sands of indignant men and women, young and old, tried to stop the fraud and protect their rights. One election monitor, who was thrown out of the polling station, wrote in his blog that "I thought I would die of shame .. .I did not manage to save your votes ... forgive me." Such voices may still be a minority, but the clash between these two groups was essentially a clash of civilisations-and a sign that the process of dismantling the Soviet system, which started 20 years ago, is far from over. A moral vacuum When the Communist regime collapsed in 1991 there was an expectation, both in the West and in Russia, that the country would embrace Western values and join the civi- lised world. It took no account of a ruined economy, depleted and exhausted human capital and the mental and moral dent by 70 years of Soviet rule. Nobody knew what kind of country would suc- ceed the Soviet Union, or what being Rus- sian really meant. The removal of ideologi- cal and geographical constraints did not add moral clarity. In particular, the intelligentsia-the en- gine of Soviet collapse-was caught unpre- pared. When their "hopeless cause" be- came reality, it quickly transpired that the country lacked a responsible elite able and willing to create new institutions. The So- viet past and its institutions were never properly examined; instead, everything Soviet became a subject of ridicule. The very word "Soviet" was shortened to so- vok, which in Russian means "dustpan". In fact, says Mr Gudkov of Levada, this self- mockery was not a reasoned rejection of the Soviet system; it was playful and flip- pant. Sidelined by years of state paternal- ism and excluded from politics, most peo- ple did not want to take responsibility for . the country's affairs. The flippancy ended when the govern- ment abolished price regulation, revealing the worthlessness of Soviet savings, and Boris Yeltsin, faced with an armed rebel- lion, fired on the Soviet parliament in 1993. Soon the hope of a miracle was replaced by disillusion and nostalgia. As Mr Le- vada's polling showed, it did not mean that most people wished to return to the Soviet past. But they longed for order and stability, which they associated with the army and security services rather than with politicians. Enter the hero Mr Putin- young, sober, blue-eyed and calm-was a perfect match for people's ex- pectations. Although picked by Yeltsin, he made a striking contrast with the ailing leader. Though he owed his career to the 1990s, he stressed that his own times were very different. Two factors made him pop- - ular: a growing economy, which allowed adopted by the West. What mattered in the him to pay off salary and pension arrears, world-East or West-were money and and the prosecution of a war in Chechnya. power, and these were the things he set out Both symbolised the return of the state. to consolidate. ' In the absence of any new vision or The country was tired of ideology, and identity, the contrast with the 1990s could he did not force it. All he promised (and only be achieved by appealing to a period largely was to raise incomes; to that preceded it-the late Soviet Union. Yet restore Soviet-era stability and a sense of although Mr Putin exploited the nostalgia worth; to provide more consumer goods; for an idealised Soviet past and restored and to let people travel. Since these things the Soviet anthem, he had no intention of satisfied most of the demands for "Free- rebuilding the Soviet Union either eco- dom" that had been heard from the late nomically or geographically. As he said re- 1980s onwards, the people happily agreed peatedly, "One who does not regret the to his request that they should stay out of passing of the Soviet Union has no heart; politics. Though Mr Putin was an authori- one who wants to bring it back has no tarian, he seemed "democratic" to them. brain." The ease with which Mr Putin eliminat- As a KGB man,MrPutinknewperfectly ed all alternative sources of power was a well that the state-controlled Soviet econ- testimony not to his strength but to Rus- omy did not work and that the ideology sia's institutional weakness. Yeltsin, who was hollow. But also as a KGB man, he be- hated communism, had refused to censor lieved that democracy and civil society the media or interfere in the court system. were simply an ideological . cover-up Mr Putin had no such qualms. First he brought television under his control, then oil and gas. Igor Malashenko, who helped to establish NTV, the first private television channel in Russia, says he thought that "there would be enough young journalists who would not want to go back to the sta- bles. I was wrong." Russia was much freer in the 1990s than it became Mr Putin. But the change was gradual rather than sudden, and was based on a relationship between money and power inherited from a previous era. The privatisations of the 1990s put proper- ty in the hands of the Soviet officialdom and a small group of Russian oligarchs. As Kirill Rogov, a historian and analyst, has observed, the real problem was not that the accumulation of capital was unfair- it usually is-but that clear rules of competi- tion and a mechanism for transferring property from less to more efficient own- ers were never established. Under Yeltsin, the oligarchs were shielded from competition by their politi- cal clout. Mr Putin simply flipped the for- mula, turning owners into vassals who were allowed to keep their property at his discretion. From now on it was the power of the bureaucrat, not the wealth of the owner, that guaranteed the ownership of an asset. The nexus between political pow- er and property was never broken-as it must be in a functioning democracy. Monetising privilege Under communism, the lack of private property was compensated for by power and status. A party boss did not own a fac- tory personally-he could not even buy a flat-but his position in the party gave him access to the collective property of the state, including elite housing and special food parcels. The word "special" was a fa- vourite one in the Soviet system, as in "spe- cial meeting", "special departments" and "special regime". The Soviet system collapsed when top officials decided to "monetise" their privi- leges and turn them into property. The word "special" was also commercialised, to become eksklusivny (exclusive) and elitny (elite). It was used to market almost anything, from a house to a haircut. Under Mr Putin, "special" regained its Soviet meaning without losing its commercial value. A black Mercedes with a blue flash- ing light, ploughing its way through pedes- trians, became the ultimate manifestation of power and money. It was also one of the symbols of injustice which helped to trig- ger the latest protests. Stories of bureaucrats, and especially the security services, putting pressure on businesses are now common. The most famous example is that of Mikhail Khodor- kovsky and the dismembering of the Yu- kos oil company. But there are thousands of others. The statistics are staggering: one in six businessmen in Russia has been ~ 0 ~ prosecuted for an alleged economic crime over the past decade. Most of the cases have no plaintiff and the number of ac- quittals is close to zero, according to studies by Russia's Centre of Legal and Economic Research. This means that the vast number of Russian businessmen in jail are victims of corrupt prosecutors, police and courts, which can expropriate a business with im- punity. As Yegor Gaidar, a prominent liberal economist, warned in 1994, "The carcass of a bureaucratic system can become the car- cass of a mafia system, depending on its goals." By the time his book appeared in 2009 his warning had become reality. In the past few years this "monstrous hybrid" has started to extend its tentacles into ev- ery sphere of public life where money can be made. Examples of violence against businessmen abound. This adds up to a So- viet-style policy of negative selection, where the best and most active are sup- pressed or eliminated while parasitic bu- reaucrats and law enforcers are rewarded. What Stalin wrought by repression and ex- termination, today's Russia achieves by corruption and state violence. The bureaucracy's main resource is par- ticipation in the rent-distribution chain. While this allows it to channel money to- wards sensitive regions and factories, it also increases the country's addiction to oil and gas and fans paternalism. Mr Putin has worked hard to build up the image of thestate as the sole benefactor, taking cred- it for rising incomes generated by high oil prices. As he stressed at the United Russia congress, only the state and its ruling party are capable of sorting out people's pro- blems. "No one else is responsible for af- fairs in a village, town, city or region or the whole country. There is no such force." This idea was spread by local gover- nors, who told their citizens before the elections that regional funding depended on voting for United Russia. "If we are re- sponsible, we have no choice," the gover- nor of impoverished U dmurtia told his people. "We must go and vote for the [Un- ited Russia] party candidates 99.99%. This is how it was in Soviet times, and if we had not broken this order, we would still be liv- ing in the Soviet Union ... much better than now." In practice, critics say, the state has failed to perform many of its functions, such as providing adequate health care, education, security and justice. But in Rus- sia words and symbols often count for more than experience. A fortress mentality Among Mr Putin's rediscovered Soviet symbols, none is more important than that of Russia as a great power surrounded by enemies. Having promoted a version of history in which Stalin represents Russia's greatness (his repressions just an unfortu- nate side-effect of a cold war forced upon him by America), Mr Putin has employed one of Stalinism's favourite formulas: Rus- sia as an isolated and besieged fortress. Although Russia has no iron curtain and the internet is free, "it is as though an invisible wall still counterpoises every- thing that is 'ours' to everything 'foreign'," M ~ Levada has written. Indeed his polling showed that, by 2004, the number of Rus- sians who considered themselves no dif- ferent from people in other countries had fallen, while the opinion that Russia is sur- . rounded by enemies had grown stronger. The recenf parliamentary elections were accompa.nied by a heavy-handed propaganda campaign that portrayed America's anti-missile system as an exis- tential threat to Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, made belligerent state- ments and state television showed lengthy footage of Russian missiles, radars and oth- er threatening stuff, accompanied by a tense soundtrack. It was as though Russia was about to be attacked. The target of this campaign was not the West, where the Russian elite spends much of its time and money, but the domestic audience. Anyone who criticises the government from within Russia gives aid to the enemy without. In his speech to the party con- gress Mr Putin particularly attacked NGos which receive money from the West "to in- fluence the course of the election cam- paign in our country". The "so-called grant receivers" were like Judas, he said, ending his speech with a quote from Stalinist times: "Truth is on our side. Victory will be ours!" He conspicuously left out the third bit: "The enemy will be destroyed!" But no sooner had he spoken than Russia's slav- ish television (which has shown none of the current protests) aired a propagandist film about Golas, a leading independent election monitor, trying to frame its staff as Western agents. Such tactics, in which enemies are everywhere and no one is allowed a noble motive, breed a general cynicism. In this, post-Soviet Russia feels very different from the Soviet Union. Leaders then had values, not just interests. The Communist Party might have been sclerotic and repressive, but it was not called "a party of thieves and crooks". Soviet leaders did not encourage cynicism: they took themselves and their words seriously. It would have been im- possible, for example, for a chief Soviet ideologist to write an anonymous novel exposing the vices of the system he him- self had created, as Vladislav Surkov, the chief Kremlin strategist, has just done. Many Kremlin politicians in fact per- ceive themselves as progressive Westernis- ers struggling with a backward, inert popu- lation which has neither the taste nor the skill for democracy. They assume people will swallow anything as long as their in- comes keep rising. But when Mr Putin said that his job swap with Mr Medvedev had been planned long ago, people felt duped. These blatant machinations, where every- thing was imitation and nothing was real, leached away support for United Russia even before the elections. When the Krem- lin decided to rig the ballot openly, fury boiled over. After a decade of "stability", Russia now looks as vulnerable to shock as the Soviet Union was at the end of its days. The big difference, however, is that the So- viet Union had a clear structure and, in Mikhail Gorbachev, a leader who was not prepared to defend himself with force. To- day's circumstances are very different. Mr Putin is unlikely to follow the advice of Mr Gorbachev and cancel the results of the rigged election. He may instead resort to more active repression, there by making the country look a lot more Soviet. This would only make the crisis worse. How Mr Putin's highly personalised power might be challenged, and what the consequences would be, remain unanswerable ques- tions. But it is obvious that unless Russians create a system that promotes honesty, openness, tolerance and initiative, no change of leader will free their country from the Soviet grip.