Vietnam sSecurityOutlook Vietnams Security Outlook

ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer PresentationtoInternationalWorkshoponAsia PacificSecurity,NationalInstituteofDefense y Studies,Tokyo,Japan,January1718,2012

OutlineofPresentation Outline of Presentation

Introduction

SecurityChallengesFacingVietnam S it Ch ll F i Vi t

ImplicationsforDefenseSector

ProspectsforRegionalCooperation

1.Introduction 1. Introduction
14th mostpopulous country 90m(2010) country 90m (2010) GDP(ppp)US$277 billion(2011)ranking billion (2011) ranking 42nd inworld GDP(officialexchange rate)US$104billion t ) US $104 billi LowerMiddleIncome Countrywithper Country with per capitaincomeofUS $3,100(ppp)

VietnamPeoplesArmy
MilitaryService Army Navy NavalInfantry Air AirDefenceForce AirAir Defence Force subtotal BorderDefence Command Total Size 412,000 412 000 13,000 27,000 30,000 30 000 482,000 40,000 522,000

2.SecurityChallengesFacingVietnam
Impactglobalfinancialcrisis

Threatby hostileforces Threat by hostile forces

Disputesoversovereignty

Nontraditionalsecurityissues
2009Defence WhitePaper

CurrentSecurityChallenges y g
Managingexternalrelations

SouthChinaSeasovereigntydisputes

Forcemodernization

Borderissues

Internationalpeacekeeping International peacekeeping

ManagingExternalRelations Managing External Relations

independence selfreliance cooperation and independence,self reliance,cooperationand development openness multilateralization and openness,multilateralization and diversificationofrelationsafriendand crediblepartnerofallnations credible partner of all nations SecuritythroughASEAN VietnamasthepivotinU.S.Chinarelations p , , RelationswithJapan,India,FranceandUK

VietnameseNavalModernisation

SvetlyakclassFastAttackCraft

BPS500MissileBoat

GepardclassGuidedMissileFrigates

CoastalDefence Coastal Defence

ExtendedRange ArtilleryMunitions

BastionAntiShip Missile Mi il

BrahMos CruiseMissile

SouthChinaSeaDisputes

VietnamsMaritimeDevelopmentStrategyto2015

OtherSecurityChallenges Other Security Challenges

Border Issues BorderIssues
China Laos Cambodia M iti Maritime

InternationalPeacekeeping
CommitmenttoserveunderUnitedNations

3.ImplicationsforDefence 3. Implications for Defence Sector

ImplicationsforDefence Implications for Defence Spending

ImplicationsforDefence Implications for Defence Sector

12
Funding Modernizenationaldefence industry Internationaldefence cooperation Revolution in Military Affairs RevolutioninMilitaryAffairs DevelopingJointOperationsForces l Reducesizeofstandingarmy

34 34

56

ImplicationsforDefence Implications for Defence Sector

78
Transferbordersecurityduties ExpandcapabilitiesMaritimePolice Divestitureofcommercial enterprises UpgradeProfessionalMilitary Education

10

4.ProspectsforRegionalCooperation 4 Prospects for Regional Cooperation

ASEAN
ADMM
ADSOM ServiceChiefs

ARF
ISMMS

ASEAN+
ADMMPlus
EWGMS

APSC
AMF

AMFPlus? l ?

ASEAN centricSecurityArchitecture ASEANcentric Security Architecture

ASEANDefence MinistersMeeting(2006) ASEAN D f Mi i M i (2006)

EvolvingRegionalSecurityArchitecture

Vietnam sSecurityOutlook Vietnams Security Outlook

ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer PresentationtoInternationalWorkshoponAsia PacificSecurity,NationalInstituteofDefense y Studies,Tokyo,Japan,January1718,2012