RussophobeMyths

ThisisalistofcommonRussophobemythsaboutRussiaanditspeoplecompiledbyAnatolyKarlinat theblogSublimeOblivion.cominJuly2009.Pleasebesuretocheckthesupportingnotesatthebottom beforedismissingthisasneoSovietpropaganda.

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MYTH:Lifehasonlyimprovedforafewoligarchs,whilethepoorandeveryoneoutsideMoscow remainimpoverished. REALITY:DuringPutinsPresidency,povertyratesmorethanhalvedandwagesnearlytripled,fueling anongoingconsumptionboomsharedacrossallregionsandsocialgroups. 2 MYTH:RussiaisinademographicdeathspiralthathasgottenworseunderPutinandwhichwillsoon sinkitseconomy. REALITY:Thebirthratehasincreased,thedeathratehasfallenandmortalityfrommurder,suicide andalcoholpoisoninghasplummeted.ProjectionsofRussiasfuturedependencyratiosarenoworse thanforChinaortheG7. 3 MYTH:Putinabusedhumanrights,personallymurdered200journalistsandreturnedRussiatoits totalitarianpast. REALITY:Toobadthatonly3%ofRussiansagree,despitehavingeasyaccesstosuchviewsviathe press,cableTVandtheInternet.ThenumberofjournalistskilledunderPutin(17)islessthanunder Yeltsin(30),andonlyfiveofthemcanbedefinitivelylinkedtotheirprofessionalwork.Electionshave beenmostlyfreeandfair. 4 MYTH:Russiaseconomyisonebigoilbubble,andtheseverityofRussiasrecessionin2009 confirmsthis. REALITY:TheextractiveindustriescontributedanegligibleamounttoRussiasrealGDPgrowth duringthePutinPresidencyandthebigcollapseinoutputattheendof2008wasmostlydueto WesternbankscuttingoffthecreditflowsonwhichmanyRussiancompanieshadunwiselycometo relyuponduringtheboomyears.Russiaexportsfewmanufacturedgoodsbecauseitscomparative advantageliesinresourceextraction.

5 MYTH:HeroicAmericanswiththeirBritishsidekickswonWorldWarTwo,whiletheRussiansjust threwbillionsofsoldierswithoutriflesinfrontofGermanmachinegunsandrapedeverylastPrussian wenchwhentheyfinallyarrivedinBerlin. ThevastmajorityofGermansoldierswerekilled,takenPOWorotherwiseincapacitatedontheEastern front.TheSoviettoAxislossratiowas1.3:1andtheUSSRoutproducedGermanyineveryweapons systemthroughoutthewar.Thenumberofallegedrapevictimsisvastlyinflatedforpropagandistic purposes,andinanycasedoesnotcomeclosetothescaleofGermanbarbarismwhichresultedinthe deathsoffifteentotwentymillionSovietcitizens. ThispopularmythappearedbecauseselfservingformerWehrmachtofficerswantedtorehabilitatethe GermanArmyafterWorldWarTwoandtheirgoalsweresharedbyAmericanpolicymakersinthe strainedatmosphereoftheColdWar. 6 MYTH:RussiabrutallyinvadedGeorgia,abeaconoffreedomanddemocracyintheEurasian darkness. REALITY:HoursafterPresidentSaakashvilipromisedfriendshiptotheOssetianpeople,hisforces wereinvadingSouthOssetiaandrainingdownindiscriminaterocketfireonsleepingTskhinvali. RussiasretaliationwasajustandproportionateresponsetothemurderofitscitizensandUN mandatedpeacekeepers. ThebeatingofoppositionprotestersandtheshutdownofantiregimeTVnetworksareserious blemishesonGeorgiandemocracy. 7 MYTH:Russianliberalsarealtruisticcampaignersforjusticeandthetruevoiceoftheoppressed Russianpeople. REALITY:TheRussianliberals(orliberasts,astheyareoftencalled)getlowsingledigitapproval ratingsfromtheRussianpopulation,whichisnotatallsurprisinggiventheirreputationformendacious hypocrisy,BolsheviklikerhetoricanddogmaticsupportfortheWestregardlessofRussiasnational interests. 8 MYTH:RussiansaresexistsandxenophobicracistswhohatetheWest. REALITY:Russianwomenlivelongerandarebettereducatedthanmen,enjoyfullabortionrightsand participateextensivelyintheeconomy.FewRussiansarepredisposedagainsttheUSandtherearefar fewerantiSemiticincidentsinRussiathaninFrance,GermanyandtheUK.

9 MYTH:Russiaisanaggressivestatewhichishatedbyitsneighbors. REALITY:Unlikesomesuperpowers,theRussiaFederationhasyettoinvadeanothercountry unprovoked.MostofitsneighborsviewRussiafavorablyandapluralityofUkrainianswouldbehappy tojoinit. 10 MYTH:ThebarbarousstateofMuscovyaroseinthesixteenthcenturywhenIvantheTerribleclimbed outofthetrees. REALITY:Themorethan1000yearoldcivilizationofKievanRuswasliterate,affluent,governedby alegalcodethatabhorredcruelandunusualpunishments(includingthedeathpenalty)andaccorded womenextensivepropertyandinheritancerights. 11 MYTH:RussiaissoongoingtoseeasubSaharanAIDSepidemic,causingmortalityratestosoar further. REALITY:ThesepessimisticmodelsrelyonassumptionsthatHIVtransmissionpatternsinRussia willbesimilartothoseprevailinginAfrica.Thisispatentlyridiculousgivenevenacursory acquaintancewithdifferencesintheirhostpopulationsandepidemicdynamics. ThepercentageofpregnantwomentestingHIVpositivereachedaplateauin2002andtendeddown eversince.Furthermore,sincefewRussiansaremalnourishedtheyhavegreaterimmuneresistancethan Africans.UnlikethecaseinsubSaharanAfrica,inRussiamedicalequipmenttendstobesterilizedand havingmanysexualpartnersissociallyunacceptable. 12 MYTH:Russiansareapackofunculturedilliterates. REALITY:Russialeadstheworldinliteracy,leveloftertiaryattainmentandthequalityofits mathematiciansandprogrammers.Itpossessesaworldclassliterary,musicalandartisticheritageand toclaimotherwiseisinfacttoadmitoneselfignorantanduncultured. 13 MYTH:AnationwithEuropeanbirthratesandAfricandeathratescannothaveafuture. REALITY:Sureitcan.ThepostSovietcollapseinfertilityrateswasaresultofchildbirth postponementcausedbythetransitionshock,notafundamentalvaluesshift,andassuchcanbe expectedtoreverseitselfinthenextdecade.Meanwhile,Russiashypermortalityprimarilyaffects olderRussianmenwhodonotdirectlycontributetopopulationreproduction.

14 MYTH:RussiahasfallentoTsaristlevelsofinequalityandisplaguedbyendemic,Africanlevel corruption.BothofthesehavebecomemuchworseunderPutin. REALITY:Russiaslevelofincomeinequalityandofcorruptionisaveragebyworldstandards.Under Putin,theyhaveregisteredaslightdeteriorationandslightimprovement,respectively. 15 MYTH:Chechnyasheroicfreedomfightersdeservetheirindependenceandwillsoongetit, InshaAllah! REALITY:Whentheyhaddefactoindependence,theChechenscreatedacriminalized,Wahhabistate, practicedethniccleansingagainstlocalRussiansandlaunchedarmedraidsagainstborderregions. MuchastheRussophobesandjihadistsmaywishotherwise,itisdifficulttoseehowChechnyacould repeatthisconsideringthattheregionisstabilized,reconstructionisinfullswingandthewarofficially endedin2009. 16 MYTH:AllSovietspaceprogramsweredevelopedbyGermanprisonersofwar,whoarestillkeptin laborcampsinSiberia. REALITY:Sorry,butwrongcountry.AllGermanleadinghitechprofessionals,includingrocket scientists,surrenderedtotheAmericansandmanyworkedontheirspaceprogram. 17 MYTH:TheWesternmediaisaccurateandobjectiveinrepresentingPutinasarantingautocratand Medvedevspuppeteer. REALITY:Putinisfrequentlymistranslated,quotedoutofcontextandcensoredbytheWesternpress initseffortstoportrayhimasaneoSovietfascistoverlord.Thetandemsrelationshipisbasedon cooperationandtheysharealongtermgoaloftransformingRussiaintoaliberal,affluentsociety. 18 MYTH:ChinesesettlersaretakingovertherapidlydepopulatingRussianFarEastandtheregionis underincreasingthreatfromthePeoplesLiberationArmy. REALITY:AfewhundredsofthousandsofChineseseasonallabormigrantsposenodemographic threattothemorethanfivemillionRussiansintheregion.EvenifChinaabandonsitstraditionalfocus onsoutheastAsiaandtheunthinkablehappens,aChineseconventionalattackonRussiawillbe repelledbytacticalnuclearweapons.

19 MYTH:Russiasindustrialbaseishollowedoutandobsolete,andthestationarybanditswhoruleit havenointerestinmakinglongterminvestmentsintoareaslikehitech.Assuch,itisdoomedto remainaresourceappendageoftheWest. REALITY:Russiahasseenhealthymanufacturingexpansionaidedbyaweakenedruble,thecreation ofspecialeconomiczonesandarobustindustrialpolicygearedtowardsgradualimportsubstitution. Statefundingforeducation,nanotechnologyandotherhitechventureshassoaredinrecentyears. 20 MYTH:TheSovietUnionwasdoomedtocollapsebecauseofitsinternalcontradictionsand dependenceonoilexports. REALITY:TheoreticalworkshowsthattheSovietsystemwasfundamentallystable,albeitstagnant. OutputcollapsewasprecipitatedbyGorbachevsabandonmentofcentralplanningintheabsenceof evolvedmarketmechanisms,whichsimplyledtoruinousinsiderplunderandpoliticalcrisis. 21 MYTH:RussiahasprovenitselfuncooperativeanduntrustworthyasaWesternpartner. REALITY:BearinginminditsrecordofbrokenpromisesandundisguisedaggressiontowardsRussia coupledwitharrogantdismissalofRussianprotestations(asseenonKosovo,NATOexpansion, Georgiasaggression,missiledefense,colorrevolutions,JacksonVanik,etc),perhapsthequestionof justwhoisuncooperativeanduntrustworthyshouldbereconsidered. 22 MYTH:RussiasyouthisliberalandproWestern,andwillsoonkickPutinandhisKGBgoonsoutof theKremlin. REALITY:ThemostproAmericansectionoftheRussianpopulationarethemiddleaged.Russian childrenandyouthareatleastasskepticalastheirgrandparents,despitethatandbecausetheyare themostsophisticatedandgloballymindedagegroup. 23 MYTH:NewschoolbooksaimtorehabilitateStalin,steepingthenextgenerationofRussiansinthe gloriesofsovereigndemocracy. REALITY:Thecontroversialtextbookinquestionhadaverylimitedprintrunandisinanycaseoneof ahugenumberofotherpermittedtextbooks.NordoesitleaveoutStalinsrepressionsandliquidation ofentiresocialclasses.ItsmainsinisthatitalsodarestopointoutStalinspositiveachievementsand refusestounequivocallycondemnhiminthebelabored,moralizingwaycommonlyexpectedofsuch textbooks.

24 MYTH:EthnicRussiansinventgrievancesabouthowtheyarebeingdiscriminatedagainstinEstonia andLatvia, REALITY:ManyhumanrightsorganizationshavedocumentedthattheRussophoneminorityin Estoniaissubjecttoseverelanguageandcitizenshiplaws.Thisresultsinthedisenfranchisementof aroundaquarteroftheirpopulationsanddiscriminationagainstRussophonesinemploymentand education.SSveteransproudlymarchthroughthestreetsofRigawhileantifascistconferencesand protestsarebrutallybrokenup. 25 MYTH:TenmillionUkrainiansdiedfromtheorganizedfaminegenocideof193233,whichRussia continuestodeny.UnderstandablymostUkrainiansyearntobreakfreefromRussiasbalefulorbit. REALITY:Thefaminewascausedbythemisguidedcollectivizationcampaignandaggravatedbypoor harvests.ThoughtherewerearoundtwomillionexcessdeathsinUkraine,overalllossesintheSoviet UnionweretwiceashighbecauseSouthRussia,theVolgaregionandKazakhstanwerealsobadly affected.Russiaspositionisthatthefaminewasdirectedagainstthekulaks(thesocialclass)andnot Ukraine(thenation),whichisanacademicallyvalidpointofview;Ukraineontheotherhandilliberally criminalizesHolodomordenial. ThehardlinepositiononRussiaandtheHolodomorisexclusivelypursuedbythediscreditedOrange elites.Instarkcontrast,thevastmajorityofUkrainianslikeRussiaandPutinwouldprobablywinifhe couldrunfortheUkrainianPresidency. 26 MYTH:Russiasmilitarytechnologyisobsolete,itsdoctrinesareoutdatedanditsarmedforcesare increasinglydecrepit.ItwillgetcrushedifitgoestowarwithChinaorNATO. REALITY:Russiaisdevelopingfifthgenerationcapabilitiesinfighters,surveillance,electronic warfare,informationwarfareandprecisionweapons.UpgradingoldSovietplatformswithmodern electronictechnologymultipliestheireffectiveness.Ithasmajorstrengthsinasymmetriccounterslike airdefense,antishipcruisemissilesandsubmarines.RussiaretainsitsSovieteramilitaryindustrial complex,massivemobilizationcapacityandhugenuclearforces.

27 MYTH:Stalinkilled62millioninnocentsouls,makinghimafarworsetyrantthanHitler. REALITY:Duringtheentire192153period,some4.1mnpeoplewerecondemnedforcounter revolutionaryactivities,ofthem0.8mntodeathand1.1mnofwhomdiedincampsandprisons.After addingthe3.55.0mnexcessdeathsfromthecollectivizationfamines,itishardtoseehowStalincould havebeenresponsibleformorethantenmilliondeathsattheabsolutemaximum.Figuresinthetensof millionshavenobasisinphysicalevidenceordemographicplausibility. EveninjusttheoccupiedterritoriesoftheUSSR,thereweretherewere13.7mndeathsduetoNazi reprisals,laborrequisitioningandfamine.Evenexcludingthevastwarcasualties,thedeathsofabout 20mnSlavcivilians,6mnJews,34mnSovietPOWsanduptoamillionRomacanbeattributedtothe Nazisduringthefarshorterperiod194145.IfNaziplanshadcometofruition,thenalltheSlavsof easternEuropewouldhavebeenexterminated,helotizedordrivenintoSiberianexile.Assuch,itis hardtoseehowthelattercouldbeconstruedasbeingworseexceptbythemostdiehardRussophobes andfascists. 28 MYTH:PutininstigatedaviciousclampdownonjudicialindependenceandassaultedRussiancivil societywithrestrictiveNGOlaws. REALITY:UnderthePutinadministrationthenumberofplaintiffsseekingredressthroughRussian courtsincreasedsixfoldandacquittalratessoaredfrom0.8%to10%,mainlythankstotheintroduction ofjurytrials,andclaimantswin71%ofcasesagainstthestate.Thereisnowasystemoffreelegalaid, moreprivacyprotectionsandincreasedaccountability. TheinfamousNGOlawsmerelyrequiredtheregistrationofallNGOs,simplifiedtheregistration processandextendedtheirrightsagainstbureaucraticinterference. 29 MYTH:PeoplehavebeensayingRussiawillbegreatinthefuturefornearlyathousandyears.And everyyear,Russiakeepsgettingworse. REALITY:PopularperceptionsofRussianswerealwaysbifurcatedintheWestbetweenoptimisticand pessimisticviewpoints,withlittleroomfornuance.However,Russiatendstoperformbestsoonafter Russophoberhetoricreachesitspeakandithasindeedimprovedbyalmostallmeaningfulmetricssince thelate1990s.

30 MYTH:Becauseoftheabove,Russiaisdoomedtocontinuedstagnationculminatingincollapseand disintegration. REALITY:OnlyinyourdreamsandintheEconomists,whichpredictedfifteenofthepastzero Russiancollapses. Itisfarmorelikelythatitsimpressivehumancapital,macroeconomicrationalismandenergywindfalls standRussiaingoodsteadforconvergencetoFirstWorldlivingstandardsbythe2020s. 31 MYTH:Khodorkovskywasaprogressiveentrepreneurwhoisbeingprosecutedbytheevilsiloviksfor pursuingtransparencyanddemocracy.Evenifhedidstealstateassetsinthe1990s,everyother oligarchwasdoingthesamesothisisselectivepoliticalpersecution. REALITY:KhodorkovskytransgressedagainstPutinsearlydealwiththeoligarchstoleavetheirill gottenfortunesaloneinreturnforhaltingtheirmeddlinginthecountryspolitics.HebribedDuma membersandtriedtostackitwithhisownpeopleinanefforttolowerhistaxes,whichhewasalready evadingonamassivescale.HesubvertedRussiassecuritybyinsistingonhisownpipelineroutetothe east,maintainingclosecontactswithWashingtonneoconsandtryingtomergehisoilcompany YUKOSwithExxon.ThereisstrongevidencethatKhodorkovskysemployeesmurderedthosewhogot inhisway. 32 MYTH:Yeltsinwasaheroicdemocratandheroofthepeople. REALITY:HemighthaveposedonatankaftercheckingthehardlineCommunistcoupin1991,but justtwoyearslaterthosesametankswerebombardingaDumawhichdaredobjecttohiscorrupt privatizationsandassaultonsocialwelfare.HeprosecutedacriminallyincompetentwarinChechnya, usedadministrativeresourcestowinthe1996electionsandsurroundedhimselfwithnepotisticcronies. DespitethisormorelikelybecauseofthishewaspraisedandsupportedbytheWest. 33 MYTH:Russiausesenergyblackmailtointimidateitsneighborsandexploitsitsenergyclouttoproject politicalinfluence. REALITY:Ithasfullrightstochargeitsneighborswhateveritpleasesforitsgas,sothisisnot blackmail.Thesecondpartistrueenough,butignoresthatthisiscommontoallGreatPowersas demonstratedbyWesterncontrolofinternationaltradeandfinanceorganizationsandenergy imperialismliketheIraqWar.

34 MYTH:TheRussianEmpirewasabackwarddespotismpopulatedbyilliteratepeasants. REALITY:Notreallyamyth,butthisperceptionwasbecomingincreasinglydatedduringthelastyears ofTsarism.By1913Russiahadnearuniversalprimaryschoolingenrollment,a(rapidlygrowing) literacyrateof41%andthefastestindustrialgrowthrateinEurope. 35 MYTH:ThomasEdisoninventedthelightbulbandGuglielmoMarconiinventedtheradio. REALITY:ActuallyitwasAlexanderLodyginandAlexanderPopov,respectively. 36 MYTH:RussiawillbecomeanIslamicCaliphateby2050. REALITY:EthnicRussiansstillaccountfor80%oftheFederationspopulation,andsincethefertility ratesofallmajorMuslimethnicgroupshavedeclinedtobelowreplacementlevelratesitiscertainthat Russianswillretainafirmmajorityintotheforeseeablefuture.AndevenifRussiansandTatars magicallyswapdemographicplaces,almostnothingwillchangebecausevodkahaslongsince dissolvedawaytheKoraninRussia. 37 MYTH:StalinwreckedtheRedArmybypurgingallitsofficers,didnotanticipatehisbuddyHitlers attackandblunderedbyconcentratinghisforcesontheSovietbordersinsteadofconductingdefensein depth.ThisresultedinthehugecasualtydisparitiesbetweentheWehrmachtandtheRedArmyin1941. REALITY:ThoughthepurgesweredetrimentaltotheRedArmy,themainreasonitexperienced officershortageswasitsmassiveexpansionfrom1.2mnto5.0mnmenduring193841.Stalinfully anticipatedaneventualGermanattack,butSovietintelligencewasfarfromunambiguousaboutits timing. Defenseindepthatthestrategiclevelwouldhaveledtodefeatindetailandcatastrophe;thepolicyof mountingconstantdiversionaryattacksontheGermanflanks,thoughcostly,distortedtheshapeand sappedthestrengthofBarbarossa.ThisultimatelysavedMoscowandavertedtotaldefeatin1941. Thoughheavilyskewed,RedArmylossratiosin1941werenoworsethanthoseofthePolesorthe FrenchwhenpittedagainsttheWehrmacht.

38 MYTH:ByteamingupwithNaziGermanyintheMolotovRibbentropPact,theRussianswerejustas culpablefortheoutbreakofWorldWarTwoastheGermans. REALITY:Munich.TheUSSRhadbeenpressingforanalliancewiththeWesterndemocraciesto containHitlerasearlyasthe1930s,buttheyrepeatedlysolditdowntherivermostnotablyby betrayingCzechoslovakiain1938,whichwaspartitionedbetweenGermany,HungaryandPolandsoon after. RealizingtheWestwasmostinterestedinhavingGermanyandtheUSSRdukeitoutbetweenthem, StalinstalledfortimebycautiouslycooperatingwithHitlerwhilerapidlybuildingupSovietmilitary industrialpotential. 39 MYTH:UnlikeGermanysreconciliationwithitsNazipast,RussiahasneverapologizedforitsSoviet past. REALITY:WhyshouldmodernRussiansapologizeforpoliciespursuedbythesmallcliquethatruled themalongtimeago,andmanyofwhomwerenonRussianstoboot? NoEuropeanstatehasmademuchefforttofullyaccountforitsimperiallegacies;themainfeatureof Germanexceptionalismwasthatyouweresupposedtoconfineyougenocidestocoloredpeoplesinhot, stickyplaces,andinanycasea)theNaziregimewasnotmorallycomparabletotheSovietUnionand b)evensotheonlyreasonGermanyapologizedsomuchwasbecauseitwasoccupied.Turkey criminalizesaffirmationoftheArmenianGenocide,Japanbrushesoffcomplaintsaboutitsbrutal conductinChinaduringtheSecondWorldWarandtheBalticstateswhitewashtheirinvolvementinthe Holocaust. Speakingofwhom,apologiesimplyacceptanceofresponsibilityandunleashdemandsfor reparationsLatviahasalreadysetupacommissiontocalculateabillforSovieteralossesto presenttoRussia,whichironicallyhadtobedisbandedrecentlybecauseoftheeconomiccrisis. Andyetdespiteallthis,RussiadidapologizeprofuselyunderYeltsin.ThemaindifferenceunderPutin isthathedarestochartamoreobjectivecourseonhistoricaltruth,acknowledgingpastwrongsbut refusingtoonesidedlysmearRussiasproudSovietlegacy,unlikehisalcoholicpredecessorinthe Kremlin. 40 MYTH:ThedifferencebetweenarussophobeandarussophileisthatwhilebothloveRussia, theydefinelovedifferently:therussophiledoeseverythinghecantodestroythecountry,whilethe russophobedoeseverythinghecantosaveitfromdestruction. REALITY:ThedifferencebetweenaRussophobeandaRussophileisthatwhilebothlove Russia,theydefinelovedifferently:TheRussophobedoeseverythingshecantosmearand condemnthecountryandthosewhodefenditfromwithinherownblinkeredframesofreference,while theRussophiledoeseverythingshecantounderstandRussiaonitsownterms.

41 MYTH:Berezovskyisaheroiccrusaderfordemocracy. REALITY:GeneralLebelsaidofhim,Berezovskyistheapotheosisofsleazinessonthestatelevel: thisrepresentativeofthesmallcliqueinpowerisnotsatisfiedwithstealinghewantseverybodytosee thatheisstealingwithcompleteimpunity.Hediedinaplanecrash. ThejournalistPaulKhlebnikovchristenedhim,GodfatheroftheKremlin.Hewasgunneddownon thestreetsofMoscow. Berezovskywasinvolvedinmultiplescamsduringthe1990sandtherearestronglinkstyinghimto severalunresolvedmurdersinthe1990s.Withfriendslikethese,theRussophobesneednoenemies. 42 MYTH:TheFSBgoonLugovoiassassinatedtheheroicdissidentLitvinenkointheheartofLondon usingultrararepoloniumonlyproducedinafewreactorcoresinRussia.Putinsrefusaltoextradite Lugovoimakeshimcomplicitinnuclearterrorism. REALITY:Therearemany,manythingsthatdontfitinthiskitschyfeelgood(forWesterners) account.Usualclaimstothecontrary,plutoniumisnotthatrareandisusuallyamajorbyproductin earlynuclearweaponsdevelopmentprograms.Nonetheless,itwouldhavebeenmuchmoreconvenient, easyandreliabletokillhimwithagunorknife. ThereisalsoevidencethatLitvinenkowasinprolongedcontactwithpoloniumbeforethefatal ingestion.Oneofhisassociates,theshadyItalian,Scaramella,becamecontaminatedbeforemeeting LugovoiorKovtun,thetwomainsuspects.HenceonlyLitvinenkocouldhavecontaminatedhim. (ScaramellawaslaterimprisonedinItalyforattemptingtoplantincriminatingevidenceonasuspected nuclearcomponentsmuggler).RussianrequestsforactualevidenceastotheguiltofLugovoiwere stonewalledbytheBritish,whononethelessarrogantlyinsistedonextraditionincontraventionofthe RussianConstitution. LitvinenkocouldhavebeenanMI6pawntaskedwithinvestigatinganuclearsmugglingring.Orhe couldhavebeencomplicithimself,eitherforprofitortoincriminatecertainRussians.Therearemany possibleinterpretationsandtheJamesBondlikeversionofevilFSBspiessilencingdissentabroad expertlyspunbyBerezovskyandhisacolyteGoldfarbisfarfromthemostlikelyone. 43 MYTH:HumanrightsabusesandauthoritariantrendsinRussiaaretransmittedtopdownfromthe Kremlin. REALITY:Ifanything,Putinismoreliberalthan70%oftheRussianpopulation.Russiaisapost totalitariansocietywithmanyfeaturesoftheoldorderstillhangingaroundininstitutionslikethe police,thepenalsystemandthebureaucracy.Itisfullycapableofevolvingitsownbrandof democracy,butthatrequirestimeandameasureofpoliticalconsolidation.

44 MYTH:RussiaisMordor. REALITY:ScratchaRussophobe,andyoufindatalentlessfantasywriter.Sorrytodisappointyou folks,buttherearentbillionsoforcsbeneaththeUralMountainspreparingthefinalphaseoftheir assaultontheWest.NotasfarasIknow,anyway. 45 MYTH:RisingupagainstthecronyproMoscowCommunistswhoriggedtheelectionsinMoldova, massesofheroicyoungdemocratstriedtoTweettheirtheirnationbackintothelightofWestern iCivilization. REALITY:TheCommunistsenjoyabroadlevelofsupportacrossallagegroups,runafully democraticcountryandalwayssteeredacoursebetweenMoscowandtheWest.Oftheirbiggest electoralopponents,onewasaproRomaniannationalistandadmireroffascistdictatorAntonescu,and theotherhadareputationasthebiggestthiefinMoldova.Theunrulyprotesterswereanunholymixof Romaniannationalists,commonhooligans,andliberastprovocateurswithshadowyconnectionsto Atlanticistprodemocracyoutfits. 46 MYTH:TheKremlinsupportsHamasandaidsIraninitspursuitofnuclearweapons. REALITY:PutinhasnevermetwithHamasandForeignMinisterLavrovmadeitcleartheywouldbe treatedasundevelopedteenagersuntiltheyrecognizeIsrael.RussiasrelationswithIranarecomplex ontheonehand,itstronglyopposesnuclearenrichmentonIraniansoilandrefusestoruleout economicsanctions.Ontheotherhand,Iransgasreservesposeasubstantiallongtermthreatto RussianenergyinfluenceinEuropeanditisinRussiasintereststokeeptensionsbetweenIranandthe Westhigh. 47 MYTH:AradarandteninterceptormissilesincentralEuropewillhaveabsolutelynochanceof stoppingRussiashugenucleararsenal,soitsjustusingtheissueasabargainingchiptofurtherits imperialambitions. REALITY:ShouldtheUSacquiresthecapabilitytodecapitateRussiasleadershipanddestroyits decayingnucleararsenalinafirststrike,thenevenasmallABMsystemcouldmopupanyRussian retaliation.Furthermore,oncethebasicAirDefenseGroundEnvironmentisbuiltup,massively expandingthesystembecomesmuchcheaper.Thoughthisisaparanoidwayoflookingatthings,only theparanoidsurvive.Especiallyinthemilitary.

48 MYTH:NationsthathaveembracedtheWestlikeGeorgiaandUkrainearemuchmoreeconomically dynamicthanRussia,whichprovesthebankruptcyoftheKremlinseconomicmodel. REALITY:SinceGeorgiaandUkrainearemuchpoorerthanRussiaandcollapsedfartherafterthe dissolutionoftheUSSR,theyaresupposedtohavehighergrowthrates.Buttheyactuallydont. Ukrainesgrowthrateof7%wassimilartoRussiasduringtheboomyearsfrom20002008anditsyear onyearGDPcollapsedbyastunning20%+inQ12009.ThoughGeorgiasgrowthrateof910%under Saakashvilismarketfundamentalismwassubstantiallyhigher,itstartedfromamuchlowerbaseand wasaccompaniedbyrisingsocialiniquity,deindustrializationandtheremovalofthesocialsafetynet. 49 MYTH:SincemostRussiansarelazy,irresponsibleandsubmissivesovoksheeple,theywillremain backwardsandunderthethumbsofKremlinthugsforalongtimetocome. REALITY:Usheringintheneweraoflegality,marketsandsocialactivismisthesocalledPutin generation,whichhasvastlydifferingvaluesfromthoseofoldergenerationsinitiative,boldness, hierarchy,individualism,cosmopolitanismandpatriotism.Furthermore,manySovieteravalueslike lovefortheMotherland,confidenceintomorrow,communityspirit,socialjustice,courage,tolerance andskepticismremainhighlyrespectable. 50 MYTH:Russiansareextremelypessimistic,unhappyandspirituallydoomed.Apeoplewhodont believeinabettertomorrowcanthaveone. REALITY:Afteralongperiodofdisillusionment,attheendof2006morepeoplebegantobelieve Russiawasmovinginapositivethaninanegativedirection,andfromearly2008morepeoplefelt confidentintomorrowthannot.Thoughtheeconomiccrisisdentedconfidence,socialmoraleisstillfar higherthanduringtheTimeofTroublesinthe1990s.

Notes:
1.AccordingtoRosstat,from20002007povertyrateshavemorethanhalved(from30%to14%).Inrealtermsduring 20002007,pensionshavegrownbyafactorof2.3andwagesbyafactorof2.6(whiletheGiniindexofinequalityhas remainedroughlysteady).Aconsumptionboomhasseensoaringautomobileownership,greateraveragelivingspaces andcellphoneandInternetpenetrationby2008exceed100%andreach28%,respectively. 2.From20002008perthousandpeople,thebirthratehasincreasedfrom8.7to12.1,whilethedeathratehasfallen from15.3to14.8thus,naturalpopulationgrowthhasimprovedfrom6.6to2.6.Similarly,infantmortalityhas tumbledfrom15.3/1000to8.5/1000.(Infact,increasedmigrationmeantthetotalpopulationfallin2008wasjust 0.09%,i.e.,virtuallyflatandnotsubstantiallydifferentfromJapan,GermanyorjustaboutanycentraleastEuropean nation).Duringthesameperiod,mortalityfromalcoholpoisonings,suicideandmurderhasnearlyhalved. However,allofthismissesthepointthatineconomicswhatmattersisntthepopulationoritsgrowthrateperse,but thedynamicsoftheworkingagepopulationasapercentageofthewholepopulationinthisrespect,Russias projecteddeclineisnomoreseverethanthatinthetheG7orChina(seepg.8ofthisGoldmanSachsreport).Fiscal problemswilloccuronlyifa)theoldagedependencyratioishighandb)oldagesocialsecuritysystemsaretoo generousorimproperlystructured.Russiasoldageratioisnotprojectedtogetexcessivelyhighevenby2050,while theWorldBankbelieveslongtermfiscalsustainabilitywillbeassurediftheprimarynonoilbudgetdeficitremains below4.7%ofGDP. 3.TheWesternnotionthatPutinhasstrangledRussiasnascentdemocracyisnotonesharedbythesilentRussian majority.64%ofRussiansthinkPutinhashadapositiveinfluenceondemocracyandhumanrights,whileonly3% thinkitwasverynegative(seerecentBBCWorldServicepollandFediaKriukovsexcellentcommentaryonit).The dataonjournalistsistakenfromtheCommitteetoProtectJournalistsdatabaseandFediaKriukovsauditofit.See alsoNicolaiPetroinRussiathroughthelookingglassandRussiandemocracy:areplytoMischaGabowitsch. NoelectionwatchdoghasbeenabletopointoutanythingotherthanvacuousallegationsthatImawareof.For instance,onthetopicofthe2008Presidentialelections,pleaseconsulttheresponseofindependentRussianelection monitorGOLOS(here): GOLOSAssociationobservedthattheElectionDaywasheldinarelativelyquietatmosphereincontrast totheStateDumaelectionday.Suchlargescaleviolationsobservedthenascampaigningnexttopolling stations,transportingofvoters,intimidationofvotersandotherswerepracticallynonexistent.Polling stationswerebetterpreparedandthevotingprocesswasbetterorganized.Atthemajorityofpolling stationsvoterslistswereproperlybound,therewerefewerrepresentativesofadministrationatinside pollingstations.Ingeneraltheprocessofopeningofthepollingstationswentwellwithoutanymajor incidents. 4.Totake2007asanexample,Russiaseconomygrewby8.1%,drivenbyconstruction(16.4%),retail(12.0%), finance(10.4%)andmanufacturing(7.9%)andweighteddownbytheextractiveindustries(ameager0.3%)(source). Thispatternhasheldsince2005,andeveninthe20002004periodonlyathirdofgrowthwasduetoincreasing hydrocarbonsproductionaccordingtoRudigerAhrendoftheOECD.SeealsotheEconomistIntelligenceUnits (whichunfortunatelytheEconomistitselfignores)Russiasboomingeconomy,whichillustratesthebankruptcyof severalconceptionsaboutRussiaseconomy,includinga)itshydrocarbonsdependenceandb)supposedstagnationin investmentandmanufacturing.Continuingincreasesinoilpricesduring20032008maskedvolumegrowthinnon hydrocarbonsexports.Beforethecrisis,Russiahadahealthycurrentaccountsurplus,600bn$inforeigncurrency reservesandhealthybudgetsurplusesintendedtobreakevenat65$/barreloil. ForaninsightintothevitalimportanceofWesternintermediationtowardsfunnelingcreditintotheRussianeconomy anditsproblemsstemmingfromlackinganindigenousfinancialsystem,checkmyTheImportanceofSelf Sufficiency. Duringthefatyears,Russiaboughtupforeigncurrencyreserves(e.g.TBills,USstateguaranteed mortgagesecurities,etc)topreventanexcessiverublestrengthening,whichwouldhavehurt manufacturersandexporters.However,thisstarvedthelocalmarketofcapital,thusforcingthedomestic corporatesectortoaccessforeigndebtfinancethereforetherapidriseinofficialreserveswerematched

byacorrespondingriseinprivateindebtedness,albeitthelatterproceededataslowerpaceandallowed Russiatoremainalargenetcreditornation.Thiswasaconservativeandpriceychoice,sincetheinterest ontheborrowingwassubstantiallygreaterthantheyieldsonRussiassovereignassets,thusforcing RussiaInc.topayaverysubstantialspreadbetweentheyieldonitsassetsandthecostoftheprivate debtinreturnforthisforeignintermediation.Inlightoftheglobalcreditcrunch,itendedupproviding onlyanillusorydegreeofsecurityforaheftyprice.ThisisbecausenowtheRussiancorporate systemfacedatriplewhammyascreditavailabilitydriedup,existingcreditorsdemanded repaymentsandandthecommoditypricesonwhichtheirbalancesheetsdependedplummeted. 5.Thiscanactuallybesaidtoencompassfourmyths,whichIcomprehensivelyrefutedinThePoisonousMythsofthe EasternFront.Iwillquotesummaries;pleaseseethepostforsupportingnotes: MYTHI:HeroicAmericanswiththeirBritishsidekickswonWorldWarTwo,whiletheRussian campaignwasasideshow. REALITY:AlthoughWesternLendLeaseandstrategicbombingwashighlyuseful,therealityisthat thevastmajorityofGermansoldiersandairmenfoughtanddiedontheEasternFrontthroughout thewar. MYTHII:TheRussiansjustthrewbillionsofsoldierswithoutriflesinfrontofGermanmachineguns. REALITY:ThevastmajorityofGermansoldierswerekilled,takenPOWorotherwiseincapacitatedon theEasternfront.TheSoviettoAxislossratiowas1.3:1andtheUSSRoutproducedGermanyin everyweaponssystemthroughoutthewar.[Forcomprehensivestatsonthematter,checkoutColonel GeneralG.F.Krivosheev'sauthoritativebookSovietcasualtiesandcombatlossesinthetwentieth century;anothergoodsource/summaryisSergeiFedosov'sarticle: ]. MYTHIII:ThoughtheWehrmachtfoughtwithhonoranddignityontheEasternFront,theRussians killedalltheGermanPOWsandrapedandlootedeastGermanywhentheyconqueredit. REALITY:TheGreatPatrioticWarwasanabsolutewarthatwasmorebrutalthananythingseeninthe Westbyordersofmagnitudethroughoutitsentirelength.ThehundredsofthousandsGermancivilian andPOWdeathsatSoviethands,thoughtragic,palebesidestheupto1520mnSovietciviliandead andthe60%mortalityratioofSovietPOWsinGermancamps.Setagainstthesenumbers,theRed ArmyrapesineastGermanyseemalmostirrelevant.[SeeFediaKriukov'srefutatingcommentaboutthe validityof"megarape"estimatesattributedtotheRedArmy]. MYTHIV:ThemainstreamWesternnarrativeontheEasternFrontduringtheSecondWorldWarwas formedbyacademichistoriansandisfundamentallyfairandobjective. REALITY:TheexigenciesoftheColdWar,coupledwithtraditionalUSantiCommunism,meantthat manyAmericanssympathizedwiththeGermannarrativeofthewar.Inparticular,theWehrmacht officerstalked,networkedandwroteabouthowtheGermanmilitarywasnotcomplicitinNaziwar crimessoastocementWestGermany(nottomentiontheirowncareers)intotheWesternallianceon equalterms.ThecomplexitiesandcompromisesofmilitaryinvolvementingenocideintheEastwas whitewashedintoakitschyimageoftheGermansoldierasapatriotbravingtheoddstodefendfamily andHeimatfromtheBolshevikhordes.TheUSmilitaryandpoliticianswerejustfinewiththis,because theyfacedanideologicalstruggleandpossiblelandwarwiththeSovietUnion.Thoughthereisserious andreasonablyobjectiveWesternacademicworkontheEasternFront,popularcultureisstilldominated byGermanmemoirsandahistoricalromanticizers.

6.ThereisawealthofevidenceforthepositionthatGeorgiainitiatedthe2008OssetiaWarseethesectionon GeorgiainDaRussophile CoreArticles .Forasummary,seeSpiegelsAShatteredDreaminGeorgia:EUProbe CreatesBurdenforSaakashvili:OtherkeyarticlesincludemyTheWesternMedia,CravenShillsfortheirNeocon Masters;HowtoScrepupaWarStorybyMarkAmes;andthisBBCdocumentaryabouttheevidenceofGeorgian atrociesWhatreallyhappenedinSouthOssetia? TherearemanyarticlesevenintheWesternmediacoveringSaakashvilisstrongarmtacticsagainsttheopposition, thoughthedifficultissueofWesterncomplicity(throughsilence)initespeciallywhencontrastedagainstthehowls andcrieswheneveranunsanctionedprotestinRussiaisbrokenupisrarelyraised.Becauseitwouldrevealthemoral bankruptcybehindtheWestssupportforSaakashvili,ofcourse. 7.SeetheLiberastssectioninBestofDaRussophile,andreadRussiasLimousineLiberals(AnatolLieven)andWhy RussianLiberalsLose(NicolaiPetro). 8.Forabortionlaws,seeWikipedia.Forotherstats,seetheWEFGenderGapIndex2007Russiasection,accordingto whichwomenarebettereducated,healthierandconstitute38%ofdecisionmakersand64%ofprofessionalworkers. (Admittedly,thepoliticalsubsectionisntasgood,thoughitshouldbenotedthatsincethelastDumaelections,the percentageofwomeninparliamenthasincreasedfrom10%to14%andtwowomenhaveenteredtheRussian Cabinet).Only8%ofRussiansviewAmericansverynegatively(anattitudenotsharedbymostpeopleinLatin AmericaandtheMiddleEast).In2006,atypicalyear,therewere136violentantiSemiticincidentsintheUK,97in France,74inCanada,38inGermanyand34intheUkraine,comparedtojust30inRussia(accordingtotheStephen RothInstitutefortheStudyofContemporaryAntiSemitismandRacism). 9.81%ofUkrainians,78%ofBulgars,59%ofSlovaksand54%ofChineseviewRussiafavorably(ineachcountry, thatsmorethanthosewhoviewtheUSinapositivelight).Theseopinionpollsarefromthe47nationPEWsurvey GlobalUneasewithMajorPowers.(Ok,admittedlythesamecannotbesaidforPolesandtheCzechs).Some54%of UkrainiansarepositiveaboutjoiningtheUnionofRussiaandBelarus,whileonly24%arenegative(seethispoll). MoreUkrainianswouldprefertojointheUnionofRussian&Belarus(43%)thantheEuropeanUnion(30%)(see Levadapollhere),andthisisstillthecaseasof2009seeWouldtherealUkrainepleasestandup? AUkrainianpublicopinionstudyrecentlypublishedbytheKievbasedResearchandBrandingpolling institutefoundthattopRussianpoliticians,includingDmitryMedvedevandVladimirPutin,enjoysky highpublicapprovalratingsmuchmoreimpressivethanthoseoftheirUkrainiancounterparts. Moreover,thenumberofUkrainianswhowantaunionstatewithRussia,BelarusandKazakhstanis greaterthanthenumberofthoserootingtojointheEuropeanUnion. AccordingtoGalluppollsinrecentyears,alltheformerSovietcountriesexceptArmeniaandGeorgiamassively approveoftheRussianleadershipandinallpostSovietnationsexceptAzerbaijanpluralitieswantatleastaneconomic union, ThoughsomemightquibblewiththeassertionthatRussiahasnotinvadedanysovereignstatesinthepostColdWar period,citingGeorgia.ThisisunfairanddisingenuouspleaseseeMyth#6. 10.ReadtheKievanRuswikiandconsultitssourcesforconfirmationandmoreinformation.Justtopreemptany confrontations,IamawarethatsomeUkrainiannationalistsconsiderthehistoryofRustobeexclusivelytheirs, datingtheemergenceoftheRussianstatetothelatemedievalexpansionofMuscovy.Thisisaridiculousviewpoint. Firstly,KievanRusalsocoveredmoderndayBelarusandmostofEuropeanRussiawestoftheVolga.Secondly,even MuscovycantraceitsancestryfromtheprincipalityofVladimirSuzdal,whichwasnearlyasoldasKievor Novgorod. 11.SeemyarticleMythoftheRussianAIDSApocalypse: In2007[RussiangovernmentantiAIDScrusader]Pokrovskybelievedthattherewereasmanyas 1.3mnpeopleinfectedwithAIDS,veryfarfromthemultimillionrateshewaspredictingjustfiveyears ago,andnotacatastrophicincreasefromexpertestimatesof0.8mnin2000.[Comprehensive]Russian governmentdatashowsthatthepercentageofpregnantwomentestingHIVpositivereachedaplateauin 2002andtendeddowneversince.ThemodelsusedbyEberstadtandco.arethemselvescriticallyflawed,

becauseaccordingtotheinternationalresearchprogramKnowledgeforActioninHIV/AIDSinRussia, theyassumethattheepidemicwouldbeessentiallyheterosexualinnatureandfollowtrendsobservedin subSaharanAfrica,whichisnotborneoutbycurrentsurveillancedatafromRussia.(Theyarealso notborneoutbytheslightestacquaintancewithcomparativedevelopmentandsociology.FewRussians aremalnourishedandhencehavegreaterimmuneresistance,theirmedicalequipmenttendstobe sterilizedanditissociallyunacceptableforthemtohavemanypartnersorengageinanalsex;allthis cannotbesaidforsubSaharanAfricans). 12.Russiahasuniversalliteracy(seeWorldBank).Statisticsonthepercentageofthepopulationwithtertiary educationfromtheOECD.InPIRLS2006(ProgressinInternationalReadingLiteracyStudy),Russiacamefirstinthe worldontheaveragecombinedreadingliteracyscore.Inmathematics,17%ofallFieldsMedalwinners(and36% sincetheRFcameintoexistence)havebeenRussian/Sovietnationals(seeWikipedia).Programmingprowessis indicatedbyarticlessuchasthese(ThenextSiliconValley:Siberia)andreflectedinthingslikeMathsOlympiadand programmingcompetitionresults. 13.SeethePopulation&DemographySectioninBestofDaRussophile,inparticulartheshortintroThroughthe LookingGlassintoRussiasDemography. First,fertilityexpectationstodayarelittledifferentfromthoseofthelateSovietera,whentheTFR wasstillrelativelyhealthy.Accordingtonumeroussurveyssincetheearly1990s,Russiansconsistently saytheywanttohaveanaverageof2.5children.ThisisbroadlysimilartorespondentsfromtheBritish Isles,FranceandScandinavia,whohaverelativelygoodTFRsofaround1.72.1.ThissuggestsRussias postSovietfertilitycollapsewascausedbytransitionshockratherthanavaluesrealignmentto middleEuropeannorms,wherepeopleonlywant1.71.8children. Second,amajorproblemwiththeTFRisthatitignorestheeffectsofbirthtiming.Amoreaccurate measureoflongtermfertilityistheaveragebirthsequence(ABS),whichgivesthemeanorderofall newbornchildren.Ifinonefineyearallwomeninapreviouslychildlesscountrydecidetogivebirthfor somereason,theTFRwillsoartoanabsurdlyhighlevelbuttheABSwillequalexactlyone.InRussia theABSremainedsteadyat1.6childrenperwomanfrom19922006,littlechangedfromSoviettimes, eventhoughtheTFRplummetedwellbelowthisnumber.Thisindicatesthatmanywomenwere postponingchildrenuntiltheysettledintocareersandimprovedtheirmaterialwellbeingahypothesis attestedtobytherisingageofmothersatchildbirthsince1993.Thoughthismaybeafalsepositiveif manywomenremainchildless,the2002Censusindicatedthatonly67%ofwomendidnothaveany childrenbytheendoftheirreproductiveyears.Thisindicatesthatchildlessnessisnotinvogueand worriesaboutwidespreadsterilityareoverblown. Third,anewconfidentconservatismhasrecentlytakenholdinRussiansociety.Aftertwodecadesof disillusionment,attheendof2006consistentlymoreRussiansbegantobelievethenationwasmovingin apositivethaninanegativedirection.ItislikelynocoincidencethatittheTFRbegantoconsistently risejustthenfrom1.3in2006toabout1.5in2008,thoughgenerousnewchildbenefitshelped. HighmortalityratesonlyhaveadirectimpactonreplacementlevelTFRwhensignificantnumbersof womendiebeforeorduringchildbearingage,asinThirdWorldcountries.Russiasinfantmortalityrate of8.5/1000in2008isclosetodevelopedcountrylevelsandnotstatisticallysignificant.Thoughtragic andunnecessary,itshypermortalitycrisismainlyaffectsoldermenandassuchhasnegligibledirect effectsonfertility. Foramoreindepthexplorationsoftheseissues,consultmyRiteofSpring:RussiasFertilityTrends(recommended byThomasPMBarnett),RussiasDemographicResilience(whattheeconomiccrisismeansforRussiasdemography) andFacesoftheFuture(myownmodelsoffutureRussiandemography). 14.RussiasincomeGinicoefficient(astandardmeasureofincomeinequality)ofaround41.3asof2007ishighonly bythestandardsofsocialistEuropeancountries.ItislowerthanintheUS,Chinaandthevastmajorityofdeveloping

countries.Ithasremainedalmostcompletelyconstantfrom19942003,andbyprojection,to2007(seeHDR05RF: Rusiain2015,p.33).Only17%ofRussianspaidabribetoobtainaservicein2007(seeTransparencyInternationals GCB)puttingthemintothesamequintileasBulgaria,TurkeyandtheCzechRepublic,i.e.slapbanginthemiddle ofworldcorruptionratherthanattheend.EvenaccordingtotheWorldBank(controlofcorruption16.5in2000;24.3 in2006)andTransparencyInternational(CPIof2.1in2000;2.3in2007),whichcruciallyrelyonforeignperceptions ofcorruptioninRussia,transparencyhasslightlyimprovedunderPutin.Ihavealreadydiscussedissuesofinequality andcorruption(inparticulartheproblemwithCPI)hereandhere.ToquoteANormalCountry(AndreiShleifer& DanielTreisman,ForeignAffairs,Mar/Apr2004)inextenso: Yetwhataboutsourceslessdependentontheperceptionofoutsiders?Inthesummerof1999,theWorld BankandtheEBRDconductedasurveyofbusinessmanagersin22postcommunistcountries. Respondentswereaskedtoestimatetheshareofannualrevenuesthatfirmsliketheirstypically devotedtounofficialpaymentstopublicofficialsinordertogetthingsdone.Suchpaymentsmightbe made,thequestionnaireadded,tofacilitateconnectiontopublicutilities,toobtainlicensesorpermits,to improverelationswithtaxcollectors,orinrelationtocustomsorimports.Respondentswerealsoasked towhatextentthesaleofparliamentarylaws,presidentialdecrees,orcourtdecisionshaddirectly affectedtheirbusinesses,inthehopeofmeasuringtheextenttowhichpolicymakerswerecooptedby business. Onboththeburdenofbriberyandstatecapturedimensions,Russiarankedrightinthemiddleofits postcommunistpeers.Onaverage,Russianfirmsreportedlypaid2.8percentofrevenuesonbribes,less thaninUkraineandUzbekistan,andfarlessthaninAzerbaijan(5.7percent)andKyrgyzstan(5.3 percent).Thepercentagewhosaiditwassometimes,frequently,mostly,oralwaysnecessaryfor theirfirmstomakeextra,unofficialpaymentstopublicofficialsinordertoinfluencethecontentofnew laws,decrees,orregulationswasalsoaboutaverage:9percent,comparedto24percentinAzerbaijan,14 percentinLatviaandLithuania,and2percentinBelarusandUzbekistan.Inbothcases,Russian responseswereveryclosetowhatonewouldpredictgivenRussiasrelativelevelofeconomic development. HowdoescorruptioninRussiaaffectindividuals?TheUNconductsacrossnationalsurveyofcrime victims.Between1996and2000,itaskedurbanresidentsinanumberofcountriesthefollowing question:Insomecountries,thereisaproblemofcorruptionamonggovernmentorpublicofficials. During[thelastyear]hasanygovernmentofficial,forinstanceacustomsofficer,apoliceofficeror inspectorinyourcountryaskedyou,orexpectedyou,topayabribeforhisservice?Thepercentageof positiveresponsesinRussiawasaboutaverageforthedevelopingandmiddleincomecountries surveyed.Some17percentofRussianssaidtheyhadbeenaskedfororhadbeenexpectedtopaybribes intheprecedingyear,fewerthaninArgentina,Brazil,Lithuania,orRomania.Again,Russiasrelative positionwasalmostexactlywhatonewouldexpectgivenitspercapitaincome. 15.ChecktheChechnyasectionfrommyoldarticleWhatweBelieve. 16.SeeBrotherKaramazovscommentfromtheoriginalTop10RussophobeMythspost: AllGermanleadinghitechprofessionals,includingrocketscientists,surrenderedtoAmericans.Manyof themwereworkingintheUSA;forsometimeashalfprisoners,e.g.WernhervonBrownsteam. WernhervonBrownwasplacedinchargeofAmericanspaceprogrammesintheendof50sinorderto closethegapwiththesoviets.HesuccessfullycompletedthetaskbylandingAmericansontheMoon.In contrast,sovietspaceresearchwasleadbyethnicRussianSergeiKorolev.BorisRaushenbakh,the highestrankedethnicGermaninthesovietrocketprogram,wasborntoanethnicGermanfamilysettled inRussiawellbeforetherevolution.HegrownupandwaseducatedentirelyintheUSSR.Hewas imprisonedinasovietlabourcampintheverybeginningofhisprofessionalcareerduringthewar alongsidewithmanyotherethnicGermanswholivedintheUSSR,similartothedetentionofethnic JapaneseintheUSA.

17.SeeTheUnfathomableDepthsofWesternHypocrisyandIsCNNGettingKickedOutofRussia?byYashaLevine forthefullstoryofCNNsodiouscensorshipofitsPutininterview.Basically,ittransformedhiscoherentlyargued pointsaboutthehistoricaloriginsoftheGeorgianOssetianantagonism,thejusticeofRussianinterventionand inconvenientquestionsaboutUSinvolvementintheaffair,toseemlikeacrazyrantaboutglobalneoconconspiracies andembargoesondeadchickens(incontrastSaakashviligotregular510minslotsatCNN,unedited). AnothergoodexampleisthefamousPutinspeechfrom2008statingthat, ,whichtranslatesasthegreatestgeopoliticaldisasterofthe century.Trueenough.Butnowfortheallvitalcontext:Putinwasacknowledgingthefactthattherewassomegood intheUSSR(e.g.valuesoffairness,idealism,etc),andthatitscollapsewasbroughtaboutincorruptandincompetent waysthatendedupmakingthewholethingcatastrophicformanyfolks(asconfirmedbyamyriadofsocioeconomic statistics).Yetduringthat2005speechhealsostressedthatthedevelopmentofRussiaasafreeanddemocraticstate tobeourmainpoliticalandideologicalgoal,andpraisedthestepstakentowardsthatevenamidstthechaosand disintegrationoftheYeltsinera.SothisishardlytheravingsofaRussianchauvinistdeadsetonresurrectingthe Sovietempire.Anotherexamplethe(in)famousMunichspeechin2007,inwhichhis(rathermeasuredandrational) criticismofUSmilitaryunilateralismwasreinterpretedtosheerabsurditybytheneocons. RePutinandMedvedev,theiroldrelationshipisoneofPutinthementorandMedvedevtheprotege.Assuchitisnot surprisingthatitisgenerallystillPutinwhotakestheinternationallimelight,butthiswillpresumablychangeas MedvedevfindshisownfeetmuchasPutinremainedintheshadowoftheoligarchsinthefirstfewyearsofhis Presidency.MoresourcesaboutthedynamicsattheheartofthePutincircleincludeTheGreatTransformation:How thePutinPlanalteredRussianSocietyandTheMedevedevMomentbyNicolaiPetroandEricKrauscritiqueofideas thatMedvedevisastooge/threattoPutin. Soinconclusion,itpaystobeextremelywaryofWesternmediareportsonanythingPutin,orRussianofficialsin general,say. 18.SeemyMythoftheYellowPeril. 19.Russiasawavigorousmanufacturingrevivalduringthe2000s,withsoaringdomesticproductionofconsumer goodssubstitutingthosepreviouslyimported.Therublewaskeptartificiallyweakened,specialeconomiczoneswere createdandforeignfirmscarryingoutassemblyworkinRussiaweregivenincentivestodrawtheirsuppliesfrom domesticproducers.Automobileproductionrosefrom1.2mnin2000to1.8mnin2008(OICA),thecompanyPower Machines()isoneoftheworldsleadingproducersofturbinesandthecountryhassuccessfully joinedinsupplyingtheregionaljetmarketwiththeSukhoiSuperJet. ThoughitisundeniablethatthereisstillalargedegreeofunproductiverentseekingandcorruptionintheRussian economy(thatithasitsshareofstationarybandits,touseMancurOlsonsterminology),itisfollytodenythe obviousprogressinmanufacturingproductionmadeandtheimprovementsinthebusinessclimatethatmadeit possible.Afterall,unliketherovingbanditsofthe1990s,theirstationarycounterpartsactuallyhaveincentivesto improvetheirassetsandprofitfromthem,insteadofstrippingthemdownandmakingwiththeproceedstoMiami BeachorLondongrad.Furthermore,asprovedbysuccessfulemergingmarketslikeSouthKoreasucheconomic policiescanindeedwork(seePutvedevisRussiasWhiteRider).Finally,iftheresonethingthattheeconomiccrisis revealedisthatWesternersshouldnotbesocomplacentabouttheabsenceofrentseekingandcorruptparasitesin theirowneconomies. TogaugetheseriousnesswithwhichRussiaispursuinganinnovationeconomy,checkoutRussiasNanotechnology crashprogramandthisforumthreadaboutRussiannanotechnologyinvestments,developments,etc.Thoughonecan arguethisisawasteofstateresources,thehistoricalevidencesuggeststhatsomelevelofstatesupportisnecessaryfor incubatingsuccessfulhitechindustries.ThisisespeciallythecaseinRussiawhichhastraditionallypursuedstate backedmodernizationprograms. 20.SeeArecommandeconomiesunstable?WhydidtheSovieteconomycollapse?byMarkHarrison. 21.Justafewexampleswouldinclude:NATObrokeitsearlyguaranteesdisavowingeasternexpansioninreturnfor Germanreunification;criminallyattackedanddismemberedSerbiaonfalsepretensesofgenocidewithoutlisteningto Russianconcerns;encouragedenmityagainstRussiathroughoutthepostSovietspace;possiblyallowedGeorgiatogo

aheadwithitscriminalassaultonSouthOssetia;unilateralabrogationoftheABM(AntiBallisticMissile)Treatyin 2002;financialandmoralsupportforcolorrevolutionsthroughoutthepostSovietspace;pushingaRussophobic agendafromthehighestpoliticallevels;pushingGeorgiaandUkraineintoNATO,despitethefactthatGeorgiahas outstandingterritorialclaimsandmostUkrainiansarefirmlyopposedtojoiningNATO,theretainmentoftheJackson VanikamendmentpenalizingtradewithRussiadespitethefactthatitisnolongeraSovietUnionwhichrestricts Jewishemigration,theblockingofWTOentry,etc,etc,etc ThatsaidRussiacancertainlycooperatewithWashingtoninanatmosphereofmutualrespect,e.g.worktowards containingnuclearproliferation,combatingterrorisminCentralAsia(Moscowrecentlyallowedtransportofgoods, includingmilitarygoods,acrossitsterritorytosupportmilitaryeffortsinAfghanistan). 22.ThesocialgroupmostdisillusionedwiththeWestareyoungMuscoviteuniversityeducatedmen.SusanRichards inRussiansdontmuchliketheWest: Theobviousresponsetothesefindingsisthatattitudeswillchangeovertime,aspeoplegetricher.But thisstudyappearsnottobearoutthesehopes.ForwhereyoumighthaveexpectedyoungRussianstolike theWestmorethantheirparents,infact,theoppositeistrue.Theyoungestrespondents(20yearolds) showedthesamedegreeofdislikeoftheUSastheirgrandparents,whilethe3545yearoldswereless hostiletotheUS. Thisisnot,however,becauseofPutinistbrainwashingcontrarytowhatonemightbelieve.NicolaiPetroinRussias NewCyberwarriors: unliketheirelderswhowereuncomfortabledealingwiththeoutsideworld,todaysyoungRussians arenotabouttoletinsultingstereotypesabouttheirlivesandtheirvaluespasstotallyunchallenged.To earntheirrespect,onehastogiveit. Untilrecently,RussiansrarelyeversawwhatwassaidaboutthemintheWesternmedia.Whentheydid, languagebarriersandscarcityofinternetaccessmeanttheyhadnowaytorespondinatimelymanner, andtosettherecordstraight. Butnowthataquarterofthepopulationhasregularinternetaccess,theycanreadwhatisbeingwritten abouttheircountryinrealtimeonRussiantranslationsites,andtheyarefindingout,asDaniel Thorniley,SeniorVicePresidentoftheEconomistGrouprecentlyputit,thatitis95percentrubbish (true,hewastalkingaboutbusinessanareawherethecoverageisstillrelativelyfavorable). Forthefirsttimeinhistory,theglobalreachoftheinternetisallowinglargenumbersofRussians(and otherswithintheformerSovietUnion)totalktotheWestdirectly,ratherthanonlythroughthefilter providedbyvisitingjournalistsandpundits.ThismeansthefreepassgivenbyRussianstothosewho writeaboutthem,somethingthatmostofusherehavelongtakenforgranted,israpidlycomingtoan end.WealreadyseethefirstsignsoftheneweraintheblisteringcommentsfromoutragedRussian readersthatnowappearregularlyonthewebsitesofmajorBritishnewspapers ThereattitudesarebecomingprevalentevenamongstRussianschoolchildren,butunfortunatelytheWesthasnoone butthemselvestoblame(see#21). 23.SeemytranslationofthecontroversialchapterinquestionTheCaseoftheStalinistTextbook,aswellasa summaryofmyargumentsaboutthetextbookandtheWesternmediasmalevolentapproachtoitinManipulating RussiasManipulationofHistory. 24.AccordingtotheAmnestyInternationalreportEstonia:LinguisticMinoritiesDiscriminationmustend, RussophoneswhoarrivedafterEstoniasincorporationintotheUSSR,andtheirchildren,weredeniedcitizenship exceptuponthecompletionofstrictlanguageproficiencyexams.Thisisunrealisticforthemanyolderfolkswho arrivedinthe1950s1960sandhelpedbuilduptheEstonianindustrialeconomy,whohavenowbeendiscardedas worthlessdetritus.TheyareunabletovoteinnationalorEuropeanelections.Unemploymentistwotothreetimes

higheramongstRussophonesthanethnicEstonians,andmanyoftheformerhavelefttofindworkinothercountries oftheEUorreturnedtoRussia.Allpublicsectorjobsandthevastmajorityofnonmanualprivatesectorjobs,evenin almostcompletelyRussiancitieslikeNarva,requirecertificatesoflanguageproficiencyinEstonian.Thereisalotof pettydiscriminationagainstRussiansonthepartofethnicEstoniannationalists.Theominouslynamedoutfitthe LanguageInspectorategoesaboutmakingunannouncedvisitstoworkplacestocheckuplanguageskillsandfine employersandfireworkerswhodonotshowtherequisiteEstonianlanguageabilities.ThePolityIVprojecthasgiven Estoniaademocracyscoreof6/10,makingitonlymarginallydemocraticbytheirdefinition.TheLSEstudy DiscriminationagainsttheRussophoneMinorityinEstoniaandLatviacharacterizesthetwoBalticstatesasethnic democracieswhoplaceextensivepolicyregimesofdiscriminationbasedonrestrictionsonRussophonesunder threepolicypillarscitizenship,language,andparticipation.ThisisdespitethefactthatthevastmajorityofBaltic Russians,perhapsnaivelyintermsoftheirowninterests,supportedtheindependenceoftheirnewlyadoptednation, notknowingthatitwouldrefusetoreciprocatethefavor. NicolaiPetroinRussianrightsandEstonianwrongs: Thegovernmentsdiscriminatorypolicieshaveincluded:thepassageoflawsrequiringthatallpolitical meetingsandprivatebusinessesbeconductedbyfluentspeakersofEstonian,theremovalofthe popularlyelectedmayorofthetownofSillamaefornotspeakingEstonianwellenough,theprosecution ofelectedofficialsinthetownofNarvaunderhatecrimesstatutesfortakingpartinaWorldWarII memorialserviceunderthesloganNarvaisagainstfascism!andtheabruptcancellationofall25 Russiantelevisionchannelsbycableoperatorsinthecapital,Tallinn(watchedbyaquarterofcitys population). Intheearly90sitwasdeemedmoreimportanttoencouragethedisintegrationoftheSovietUnion. Later,inthemid90s,duringthedebatesoverexpansionoftheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,it wassaidthatsecurityconcernsshouldbeparamount.Attheturnofthecentury,EuropeanUnion expansionwasgivenprecedence.Ateachturn,nonnativeresidentswereassuredbyWesternleadersthat Estoniasinclusionintheseorganizationswouldsoontakecareofalltheirproblems.Instead,however, EstonianleadershavetakenapprovalofmembershipinWesternorganizationsasproofthattheycan safelyignorethecivilrightsoftheirnonnativeminority Giventhishistory,itisscarcelysurprisingthatminoritysensitivitiesregisteredsolittlewiththe governmentthatamonumenttothefallenofWorldWarIIwasdismantlednearlyontheeveofVictory Day,theoneholidayuniversallyreveredbyformerSovietcitizensofallnationalities. HowcananyonetakehumanrightsseriouslyifWesternpoliticiansscreambloodymurderatthe detentionofafewscoredemonstratorsinMoscow,butthentrytosweepthearrestofmorethan1,000 andtheinjuryofseveralhundredinEstoniaquietlyundertherug. TheseissuescametotheforewhentheTomboftheUnknownSoldierwasdismantled,resultinginvigorous Russophoneprotestsagainstdiscriminationthatwerebrutallycrushed.Toaddinsulttoinjury,Russiawasalso baselesslyaccusedofconductingcyberterrorismagainstEstoniaandaNATOcyberwarcenterisbeingbuiltinthat country. Latviaalsoprosecuteseconomicsaboteurswhosuggestitmayhavetodevalueitscurrency. 25.SeriousestimatesofUkrainiandeathsrangefrom3.03.5mn(StanislavKulchytsky),whoischampionedbythose claimingitasgenocide(thus3.5mnistheabsoluteupperlimited).Amoremodernestimateis2.2mn(JacquesVallin). DeclassifiedSovietstatisticsindicateexcessdeathsinUkrainefrom193233numbered1.5mn,outof3.2mndeaths acrossthewholeSovietUnionthoughtheyhaveproblemsofreliability.Thestatisticaldistributionoffamines victimsamongtheethnicitiescloselyreflectstheethnicdistributionoftheruralpopulationofUkraine.Though Ukrainewasundeniableoneoftheregionsmostaffected,areaslikeSouthernRussia,theVolgaregionand Kazakhstanalsosufferedgreatly.Assuch,thereisnogroundsforcallingthisaRussianchauvinistorganizedfamine genocideagainstUkrainians(especiallysinceRussianswereevennotthatprominentamongsttheSovietleadership, e.g.StalinandBeriawerebothGeorgians).

In2008,RussiacondemnedtheSovietregimesdisregardforthelivesofpeopleintheattainmentofeconomicand politicalgoals,alongwithanyattemptstorevivetotalitarianregimesthatdisregardtherightsandlivesofcitizensin formerSovietstates.yetstatedthatthereisnohistoricevidencethatthefaminewasorganizedonethnicgrounds. Thisisavalidpositiontotakethatisnotatoddswithacademicviewsonthesubject;ontheotherhand,Ukraines criminalizationofHolodomordenialbyafineof100to300untaxedminimumsalaries,orimprisonmentofupto twoyearspushedthroughtheRadabyaslenderthinmajorityin2006isextremelyantihistoricalandideological innature. InrealitytheHolodomorwascausedbywillfulnegligence,poorclimaticconditionsandanideologicalfervoragainst kulaksinthemidstofthecollectivizationcampaignwhichaimedtoproduceafoodsurplustofundindustrialization. Thatsaid,thoughIshouldsaythatitwasoverallineffectivesinceitwasfollowedupbyahalvingoflivestock numbers,lossesofthemostexperiencedfarmersanda66%fallingrainexportsin193334from193132,whichkind ofdefeateditspurposeofincreasingforeigncurrencyearningstofundindustrialization(thoughitwaspartiallymade upbyincreasingelectrificationandmechanizationbythelate1930s). AsfortheallegedUkrainiandislikeofRussia,pleaseseeMyth#9. 26.NewRussianversionsofIntegratedAirDefenseSystemsareabletocounterallaircraftintheUSfleetexceptthe F22RaptorandB2heavybomber,whicharereliantonprohibitivelyexpensivestealthfeatures,andarehighly mobileandsurvivable;inanycase,eventheywillbecomeincreasinglyvulnerable.Russiaisrapidlydeveloping/ stealing/implementingstealthtechnologies,resultinginthatupgradedRussianfourthgenerationfighters: thenotionthatcontemporaryproductionRussianfightersareinferiorintechnology,performanceand overallcapabilitytotheirUS/EUpeersislargelynotcorrect,andpredicatedonassumptionsabout Russiantechnologicalcapabilitieswhichceasedtobetrueadecadeormoreago. Onthehighseas,USaircraftcarriersthebedrockofUSmaritimesupremacyareunderincreasingthreatfromnew developmentsinsupersonicantishipcruisemissiles,silentdieselsubmarinesarmedwithsupercavitatingtorpedoes, UAVs/drones,andmodernizedfourthgenerationfighterslikeFlankers.NotonlycanRussiamanufactureanduse thesethingsitself,butitcanalsosellthemontounfriendlynationslikeIran.Inthelongrunthismayspelltheendto globalUSmilitaryhegemony. ItistruethatRussiaishobbledbyalackofaprofessional,motivatedarmy,organizationalinefficienciesandthelack ofgreatpowerprojectioncapabilities.Nonetheless,itisinthemiddleofmajormilitaryreformsthataimtoaddress theseproblemsbydecreasingthenumbersofofficersintheranks,movingtoabrigaderatherthandivisionalsystem andinstitutingastateofpermanentreadinessamongstitsmilitaryunits. Russiacontinuestohaveoneoftheworldstwogreatestnucleararsenalsandfullyindependentmilitaryindustrial complexes(alongwiththeUS).Shouldtherebesevereinternationaltensions,itcanreturntothepermanentwar mobilizationfootingoftheUSSR,foritretainsadormantstructurallymilitarizedpotential(Russiainthe21st Century:TheProdigalSuperpower,StevenRosefielde).Thoughnoonewillwin,itwilldestroyitsenemiesatleastas thoroughlyasitisdestroyeditselfinthecaseofanuclearwar. 27.Archivalevidencehere.Notealsothata)notallsentenceswerecarriedoutduetothesystemsinefficiencyandb) thedeathrateintheGulaglaborcampsneverexceeded10%ayearexceptinthedearthyearsof1934and194344so intotaloutofthec.3.3mnimprisoned,around1.1mnorathirddied. AsforthescaleofHitlersdemocide,consultMythIIIinThePoisonousMythsoftheEasternFront. 28.SeeRussiathroughthelookingglassandTheGreatTransformation:HowthePutinPlanalteredRussianSociety byNicolaiPetro.NotethatthehighconvictionratesarenotuniquetoRussia:Japanisinfamousforforcedconfessions and99%+convictionrates.AsfortheNGOlaws,seeRussiathroughthelookingglass(NicolaiPetro): Forexample,registrationcannolongerbedeniedonthewhimoflocalofficials;andwithoutoneoffour specificreasons,registrationhastobegrantedwithinthirtydays.Theproposalalsolimitsreviewof NCOactivitiestoonceayear,andstipulatesthatanyadministrativeactionshavetobedoneundercourt supervision.Themuchtoutedissueoftheclosingofforeignorganisationsisaredherring,sincethe proposedlegislationspecificallydeprivesbureaucratsoftheabilitytoactontheirowninthisregard.

29.Afewquotestoillustratethepoint. Atpresent,allweseeischaos,struggle,economiccollapse,ethnicdisintegrationjustastheobservers of1918did.HowcouldtheyhaveforeseenthenthatadecadeorsolatertheUSSRwouldhavebegunto producechemicals,aircraft,trucks,tanks,andmachinetoolsandbegrowingfasterthananyother industrializedsociety?Byextension,howcouldWesternadmirersofStalinscentralizedeconomyinthe 1930sknowthattheverysystemcontainedtheseedsofitsowncollapse?[PreparingfortheTwenty FirstCentury,Ch.11,TheErstwhileUSSRanditsCrumbledEmpire,pp.249,PaulKennedy(1993)] AndfromJohnScottinBehindtheUrals,whospentafewyearslivingandworkingintheUSSRduringthe1930s: IntalkingwithpeopleinFranceandAmericaIwasimpressedbytheinterestintheSovietUnionandthe widespreadmisinformationaboutRussiaandallthingsRussian.EveryoneImetwasopinionated[aren't wealllol!].TheCommunistsandtheirsympathizersheldRussiaupasapanaceaOtherpeoplewere steepedinEugeneLyonsstoriesandwouldnotconcedethepossibilitythatRussiahadproduced anythingduringrecentyearsexceptchaos,sufferinganddisorder.Theydismissedtheindustrialand materialsuccessesoftheRussianswithanangrywaveofthehand.Anyeconomistorbusinessman shouldhavebeenabletoseethatthetriplingofpigironproductionwithinadecadewasaserious achievement,andwouldnecessarilyhavefarreachingeffectsonthebalanceofeconomicandtherefore militarypowerinEurope. 30.ReTheEconomist,fromPressReview:PressReview:TheEconomistsThreeStoogesbyKirillPankratov: Ofcourse,itsRussiancoverageisfarfromtheonlyofmagazinesbloopers.Thelistislong.Theresthe famousMarch1999coverstorypredictinganendlesseraofcheapoil,whichappearedthesameweek thatoilpricesbegantheirsteadyascentfromthelowestpointinaquartercentury.Perfecttiming!Then therewereTheEconomistsstridenteditorialsinfavorofBushsinvasionofIraqin2003. FirstupisEdwardLucas,theMoscowcorrespondentwhointheannualglossyTheWorldin1999 issue,issuedthispredictionforRussia,atoncegloatingandapocalyptic: 1999willbetheyearofRussiasdisintegrationTradebetweenRussiasregionswillplungeatleast untiltheyhitonastable,trustedcurrencyinwhichtodobusiness.Thatishardlylikelytobetherouble, andtheplannedcouponsandcurrencieswhichsomeregionshavebeenplanninglookequally unattractivesubstitutesforeigninvasion,albeitofapeacefulandbenevolentkind,isexactlywhat RussiasregionsshouldwantTheprobabledeclineinRussiaswealthin1999willbearound10% expectyetanotherbleakandmiserableyear. ForwhyIambullishoncontinuinghighgrowthinthefuture,seemyownarticleKremlinDreamssometimescome trueandGoldmanSachsthinksthatRussiaistheonlymemberoftheBRICs(Brazil,Russia,China,India)withthe potentialtoreachWesternlevelsofGDPpercapitaintheforeseeablefuture. 31.LotsofsourcesonthisontheInternet.Remurders,IdmentionFormerYUKOSSecurityChiefGets20Yearsfor Murder.AlsofromRussiaBlogin10WesternMediaStereotypesAboutRussia:HowTruthfulAreThey? YUKOSwaspracticingtaxevasiononamassive,multibilliondollarscale.Adeeperinvestigationis nowunderway,andKhodorkovskysaidesfacechargesofmurderandattemptedmurderintheprocessof conductingcompanybusiness.Theywerealsochargedwithunlawfulbusinesspractices,suchastax evasion,fraudandmoneylaundering.Inaddition,IsraelilawyersareworkingwithRussianprosecutors toextraditeKhodorkovskysformerpartnerLeonidNevzlin,asmanypoliticalcirclesinIsraelfindhis presenceharmfultotheircountrysimage.IsraelilawyersareinvestigatingallegationsthatNevzlin fraudulentlyobtainedhisIsraelicitizenshipin2003afterRussianprosecutorsindictedMikhail Khodorkovsky.InMarch2005,AlexeiPichugin,theformerchiefofsecurityforYUKOS,wassentenced toprisontimeformultiplecountsofmurder.Manyoligarchsdofaceprosecution,butnotbecauseof theirpoliticalbeliefs;rather,theyfacepunishmentforactualcrimestheyhavecommitted

32.E.g.seeRememberingYeltsinforahardlookatYeltsinsreal,antiRussiancharacter.Hewonthe1996elections despitelosingawarandhavingapprovalratingsinthesingledigits,whichwereimmediatelyendorsedbyWestern electionobserverslikeOSCE.SeeWhoKilledTheOSCE?byAlexanderZaitchikandMarkAmes. Well,thatsonewayoflookingatit.AnotherwayisthattherecentRussiaOSCEdoorslamming episodeistheinevitableoutcomeofyearsofcynicalWesternmanipulationofanorganizationthatonce heldenormouspromiseandimpeccablecredentials,butisnowwithgoodreasonconsidereda propagandatoolfortheWest. IfthatlastsentencesoundsliketheparanoidrantofaPutinerasilovikrevanchist,thenthinkagain.Its theviewheldbynoneotherthanthemanwhoheadedtheOSCEs1996electionmissioninRussia, MichaelMeadowcroft.TheWestletRussiadown,anditsashame,saidMeadowcroft,aformer BritishMPandveteranof48electionmonitoringmissionsto35countries. InarecenttelephoneinterviewwithTheeXile,MeadowcroftexplainedhowhewaspressuredbyOSCE andEUauthoritiestoignoreseriousirregularitiesinBorisYeltsinsheavilymanipulated1996election victory,andhowEUofficialssuppressedareportabouttheRussianmediasneartotalsubservienceto proYeltsinforces. UptothelastminuteIwasbeingpressuredby[theOSCEhigherupsin]WarsawtochangewhatI wantedtosay,saidMeadowcroft.IntermsofwhattheOSCEwaspreparedtosaypubliclyaboutthe election,theywereveryopposedtoanysuggestionthattheelectionhadbeenmanipulated.Infact,he says,theOSCEandtheWesthadmadeitsmindupabouthowwonderfullyfreeandfairBorisYeltsins electionwasbeforevotingevenstarted. ThoughitistruethatPutinalsoprobablyabusesadministrativeresourcestowinelectionsthoughtheextentand scalearesmallandshouldnotbeexaggerated,asIpointoutinLyingLiarsandtheirLiesandMoreReflectionson ElectionFraud,a)OSCEandtheWestnowcondemnshimforthisbecausePutinisnottheirstoogeandb)itdoesnt matternearlyasmuchbecausePutinhastheoverwhelmingsupportofthepeopleandwouldwininanycase. 33.Yes,Russiauses(attimesunderhanded)meanstotieupworldenergysourcesandusesitsenergyclouttoexert economicandpoliticalpressure.ButtheUSandallotherGreatPowersdotheexactsamething,inwaysrangingfrom theIraqWartosupportofeconomicallysubordinatetheocraticorauthoritarianregimeslikeSaudiArabiatothe ChiquitaBananacase.NotethatthecounterrefutationtotheIraqWarasenergyimperialismthesisthatUS companiesdidnotparticularlybenefitfromnewcontractsdoesntreallyholdwater,becausethewholepointwasto unlockIraqsoilsuppliesintotheworldmarketandtoestablishafirmmilitarypresenceinthecritical(forenergy) MiddleEastregion. 34.Reeducation,seeNationalLiteracyCampaigns(ByRobertF.Arnove,HarveyJ.Graff).Reindustry,thefastrate oflateTsaristgrowthisprettywellknowntoeconomichistorians. 35.SeeSergeiFedosovssite. 36.ConsulttheMythofDhimmitudepartofmyRiteofSpring:RussiaFertilityTrendsarticle. 37.SeethispostandcommentsatFediaKriukovsblog. Rearmypurges,therearerevisionistargumentsthattheydidnothaveamajoreffectinabsoluteterms,e.g.fromthis bookreview(althoughitistruetheycontributedtogreaterrigidityinmilitarythoughtpriortothewar,whichwould havebeendamagingthatsaid,itseffectsshouldnotbeoverstated): StalinsReluctantSoldiersmakestwofundamentalpointsaboutthehistoryoftheRedArmy,aswellas severalimportantobservations.Thefirstfundamentalpointisthattheimpactofthepoliticalterrorofthe 193738was,inabsoluteandrelativeterms,lessthanitisgenerallytakentohavebeen.Anumberof newlyuncoveredsources,notablyGeneralE.A.ShchadenkosreportofMay1940,makeitpossible toconcludethatnetlossesofofficersandcommissars(takingintoaccountreinstatements)was

some23000.Reesealsoreassessesthesizeofthetotalofficercorps,makingit150000in1937. Previoushistorianshaveestimatedhigherlossesandassumedamuchsmallerofficercorps,andReese convincinglyshowsasmallerpercentageloss. Thesecondfundamentalpointisrelatedtothefirst.ThebasicreasonwhytheRedArmyfoughtsobadly in1941.Reeseargues,wasnotthepurges.Whatreallymatteredwasthearmysincohesiveness, whichresultedfromshortcomingsacrosstheinterwaryears,butespeciallythetoorapidexpansion inthelate1930s.ThecrucialweaknessesoftheRedArmywereinadequatelytrainedjuniorofficersand poorplatoonlevelorganization.BothweaknesseswereaccentuatedbyalackofcareerNCOs.This generalpointisdevelopedespeciallywellbyReeseinanarchivallybasedcasestudyoftheKievmilitary district. ReunanticipatedattackofHitler.Stalindidnotdismissintelligencereports.NotethatSovietintelligencedidnot unambiguouslypredicttheGermanattackthereweremanycontradictoryreportsandsophisticatedGerman disinformation.HewasunderstandablycautiousabouttrustingBritishsourcesgiventheirpastduplicityandlatent interestindrawingtheUSSRintothewar.Second,Stalinfinallyerredonthesideofcautionandauthorizedthe forwarddeploymentofthesecondoperationalechelonaroundJune17,whichhoweverdidnotreachtheirdestinations whenthewarbrokeout.Moreover,onJune21Stalinsignedadirective(whichlatercametobeknownasDirective No1)authorizingallformationsdeployedalongthebordertotakeupdefensivepositions(ineffect,partially implementcoveringplans).Unfortunately,whenthewarstarted,thisdirectivewasstillstuckbeingdecrypted somewhereattheMDandarmylevel. Redefenseindepth.Itsasomewhatoverusedclichenowadays. First,weneedtolookatwhatitisexactly.Atthetacticallevel,itmeanscreatingaclusterofstrongpointsseparated bygapsfilledwithmines,dragonsteeth,andotherobstacles,suchthatenemywouldbechanneledintoassaultsonthe strongpointsonebyone.ButtheRedArmyof1941wastoounwieldyandunpreparedforthis,andthequestionof why?shouldbedirectedmoretowardsthemilitaryestablishmentthantoStalin. Andnotonlyforthem,buttothemilitariesofallcountries.Norifleformationofthetime,theWehrmachtincluded, hadtheabilitytorepulseasinglePanzerdivisionconcentratedonanarrowfront.Itwouldinevitablybeslicedupand the(slow)remnantsenvelopedanddestroyedbymobileenemyforces(i.e.theoneswhichspearheadedBarbarossa thoughitistrueasyousaythatthebulkoftheGermanarmywasrelativelyimmobile,itwasstillmuchmoresothan theSovietin1941anditsmobileelementswereextremelywelltrainedwithplentyofRLexperience). ThiswasthemajorbaneofSovietforceswhichwasonlysignificantlyreversedinKursk,twoyearsintothewar,when theSovietArmyreachedalevelofcompetenceandorganizationanorderofmagnitudehigherthanwasthecasein 1941.(itshouldbenotedalsothatitwasonlyafter1943thatAxisSovietlossesontheEasternFrontequalized). Butifyouretalkingoftheoperationallevel(whichisaquestionthatrelatesmoredirectlytoStalinsrole), defenseindepthisutterlybankruptsincethedepthtothedefensecanonlybeprovidedatthetacticallevel, andtryingthisontheoperationalscaleimpliessplittingupyourdivisionsandsufferingdefeatindetail. Againstsuchanarmy,tradingspace,defendingindepth,wastheappropriatemethod.EventuallytheSovietslearned this,andimplementeditatKurskin1943. Andfromabove,weseeitwouldhaveledtoutterdisasterin1941anditistotheircreditthattheSovietmilitary leadershiprecognizedthis(unlikeallpriorGermanopponents).Thustheyinsteadpursuedanactivedefensebased onconstantinitiativeseizingcounterattacks,whichalthoughpredictablyafailureonthetacticallevelsdistortedthe shapeandflowofBarbarossabyforcingtheGermanstoreinforcetheirflanksatthecostoftheirpointsandwasa muchbetterideathansimplythrowingrifledivisionafterdivisionagainstarmoredspearsthatwouldjusteffortlessly slicethroughthem. Atthetime,encirclementswereinevitablebecausetheGermanPanzerdivisionswerequickerthanSovietrifle divisions,andstoppingthemwashopeless(nocountryhadmanagedthatbefore,anditwasnotuntil1943thatthe SovietsfirstmanagedtocontainaGermanarmoredassault).Theidearatherwastolaunchconstantcounter

offensivestobluntanddiverttheoverallGermanattack,whichthoughafailureattacticalandoperational levelssucceededatthestrategiclevel. Stalineffectivelydidthesamethingbymassingneartheborder.Itwasnecessarytotradespacefortime.Spacewas whattheUSSRhadinabundance. Onthispoint,Iwouldrepeattheabovepointthata)intelligencewashighlycontradictoryaboutGermanintentions, especiallysincethelattermountedawellplanneddisinformationcampaign,andb)mostfortificationsneartheborder wereinthestageofconstructionagain,becausetheSovietleadershipgenuinelybelievedthatHitlerwasnotreadyto attackuntil1942attheearliest(andmorelikelythemid1940s)andc)youcantreallysaytheywerethatmassedat theborder,whentheearliestreallybigencirclementstookplaceinMinsk/Kiev(placeswhicharegatewaystothe Sovietheartlandsandreallyneededtobedefendedforstrategicandpoliticalreasons). IwouldalsonotethatevenwithconstantSovietcounterattacksanddiversions,theGermansstillmanagedtoreach thegatesofMoscow,andagaingotuncomfortablyclosetocuttingofftheCaucasusoilsupplyin1942.Russiashasa lotofspacebutitsnotinfinite. 38.SeehereatSergeiFedosovssiteforafullaccountofthediplomaticeventsintherunuptoWorldWarTwo. 39.NoEuropeanstatehasmademuchefforttofullyaccountforitsimperiallegacies;themainfeatureofGerman exceptionalismwasthatyouweresupposedtoconfineyougenocidestocoloredpeoplesinhot,stickyplaces(e.g.the BelgiansintheCongo,theVictorianHolocaustsundertheBritishRaj,theIrishPotatoFaminewhichwasno differentfromtheHolodomorexceptthattheideologythatitwasconductedunderwaslaissezfairecapitalism) TheBalticstateswhitewashtheirinvolvementintheHolocaust,TurkeycriminalizesaffirmationoftheArmenian GenocideandJapanbrushesoffcomplaintsaboutitsbrutalconductinChinaduringtheSecondWorldWar.Theonly reasonGermanyapologizedwasbecauseitwasoccupied,andinanycasetheNaziregimewasnotmorally comparabletotheSovietUnion.Andapologiesimplyacceptanceofresponsibilityanddemandsforreparations LatviahadalreadysetupacommissiontocalculateabillforSovieteralossestopresenttoRussia,whichironically hadtobedisbandedbecauseoftheeconomiccrisis. OneexampleofRussiasapologies:WhenPresidentYeltsinvisitedtheCzechRepublicin1993hewasnotspeaking justforhimself,hewasspeakingfortheRussianFederationandfortheRussianpeople.Today,notonlydowerespect allagreementssignedpreviouslywealsosharealltheevaluationsthatweremadeatthebeginningofthe1990sI musttellyouwithabsolutefranknesswedonot,ofcourse,bearanylegalresponsibility.Butthemoralresponsibility isthere,ofcourse. ForRussianattitudestotheirhistoryunderPutin,IrecommendmyarticleManipulatingRussiasManipulationof HistoryandAirbrushingHistorybyPatrickArmstrong. 40.SeemyResponsestocommonRussophobeargumentsforaninsightintothesheerintellectualbankruptcyofthe Russophobeworldview. 41.SeetheseminalForbesarticleGodfatheroftheKremlin(PaulKhlebnikov)orreadthebookofthesamename. 42.TheSpecterthathauntstheDeathofLitvinenko(EdwardJayEpstein)andTheAlexanderLitvinenkoStory Revisited(DavidHabakkuk)arevitalprimersontheverymurkycircumstancesofhisdeath. Beforetheextraditiondispute,Russianinvestigators,intheory,couldhavequestionedrelevantwitnesses inLondon.TheirproposedrosterofwitnessessuggestedthatRussianinterestextendedtotheRussian expatriatecommunityinBritain,orLondongrad,asitisnowcalled.TheLitvinenkocaseprovidedthe Russianswiththeopportunityforafishingexpedition,sinceLitvinenkohadatthetimeofhisdeath workedwithmanyofRussiasenemies,includingMr.Berezovsky;hisfoundationhead,Mr.Goldfarb, whodispensedmoneytoawebofantiPutinwebsites;hisChechenallyAkhmedZakayev,whoheadeda commissioninvestigatingRussianwarcrimesinChechnya(forwhichLitvinenkoactedasan investigator),andformerownersoftheexpropriatedoilgiantYukos,whowerebattlinginthecourtsto regaincontrolofbillionsofdollarsinitsoffshorebankaccounts. TheRussianinvestigationcouldalsohaveveeredintoLitvinenkosactivitiesintheshadowyworldof

securityconsultants,includinghisdealingswiththetwosecuritycompaniesinMr.Berezovskys building,ErinysInternationalandTitonInternational,andhisinvolvementwithMr.Scaramellainan attempttoplantincriminatingevidenceonasuspectednuclearcomponentsmuggleraplotforwhich Mr.ScaramellawasjailedafterhisphoneconversationswithLitvinenkowereinterceptedbytheItalian nationalpolice. TheRussianshadaskedformoreinformationaboutradiationtracesattheofficesofthesecompanies, andMr.Lugovoihadsaidthatatoneofthesecompanies,Erinys,hehadbeenofferedlargesumsof moneytoprovidecompromisinginformationaboutRussianofficials.Mr.Kovtun,whoalsoattendedthat meeting,backsupMr.Lugovoisstory.Suchchargeshadthepotentialforembarrassingnotonlythe securitycompaniesthathademployedLitvinenkoandemployedformerScotlandYardandBritish intelligenceofficers,buttheBritishgovernment,sinceithadprovidedLitvinenkowithapassportunder thealiasEdwinRedwaldCartertotraveltopartsoftheformerSovietUnion. TheBritishextraditiongambitendedtheRussianinvestigationinLondongrad.ItalsodiscreditedMr. Lugovoisaccountbynaminghimasamurdersuspect.Intermsofapublicrelationstactic,itresultedin abrilliantsuccessbyputtingtheblameonRussianstonewallingforthefailuretosolvethemystery.What itobscuredistheelephantintheroomthathauntsthecase:thefactthatacrucialcomponentfor buildinganearlystagenukewassmuggledintoLondonin2006.Wasitbroughtinmerelyasamurder weaponoraspartofatransactionontheinternationalarmsmarket? Thereislittle,ifany,possibility,thatthisquestionwillbeansweredinthepresentstalemate.TheRussian prosecutorgeneralhasdeclaredthattheBritishcaseisbaseless;Mr.Lugovoi,electedtotheRussian ParliamentinDecember2007,nowhasimmunityfromprosecution,andMr.Scaramella,underhouse arrestinNaples,hasbeensilenced.Thepress,foritspart,remainslargelyfixatedonarevengemurder theorythatcorrespondsmorecloselytotheSMERSHvillaininJamesBondmoviesthantotherealityof thecaseofthesmuggledPolonium210. Afterconsideringalltheevidence,myhypothesisisthatLitvinenkocameincontactwithaPolonium 210smugglingoperationandwas,eitherwittinglyorunwittingly,exposedtoit.Litvinenkohadbeena personofinteresttotheintelligenceservicesofmanycountries,includingBritainsMI6,RussiasFSB, AmericasCIA(whichrejectedhisoffertodefectin2000),andItalysSISMI,whichwasmonitoringhis phoneconversations. Hismurkyoperations,whatevertheirpurpose,involvedhisseekingcontactsinoneofthemostlawless areasintheformerSovietUnion,thePankisiGorge,whichhadbecomeacenterforarmssmuggling.He hadalsodealtwithpeopleaccusedofeverythingfrommoneylaunderingtotraffickinginnuclear components.Theseactivitiesmayhavebroughthim,orhisassociates,incontactwithasampleof Polonium210,whichthen,eitherbyaccidentorbydesign,contaminatedandkilledhim. Tounlockthemystery,Britainmustmakeavailableitssecretevidence,includingtheautopsyreport,the comprehensivelistofplacesinwhichradiationwasdetected,andthesurveillancereportsofLitvinenko andhisassociates.IfBritainconsidersittoosensitiveforpublicrelease,itshouldbeturnedovertoan internationalcommissionofinquiry.Thestakesaretoohighheretoleaveunresolvedthemysteryofthe smuggledPolonium210. 43.Rethefirstsentence.ThisisonerarethingonwhichKhodorkovskyandIareinperfectconcord.SeePutins politicalreformsneednotbeviewedasantidemocraticbyVladSobellandNicolaiPetrosworkonthesubjectfor more. 44.Thislastmythisabittongueincheek,althoughonthetopicofMordorIveactuallymanagedtofinda Russophobewhomakesthecomparisonexplicitly.

Butastimesince1991passedandthetwocountriesdriftedintheirdevelopmentfurtherandfurther awayfromeachother,thecitywasincreasinglyattachedtoEstoniabecauseofthedarkpresenceofits eviltwin,RussianIvangorod(right). CrossingtheriverbridgeintoIvangorodmakesthosenumbersquicklygrowinfleshandobtainformin miriadofdifferences,whichsetRussiaapartfromEurope,startingwithsickeningpublictoiletsand endingwiththehopelessnessinthepeopleseyes.Thisiswhylookingagainatthecrudelimestone fortressalmostinvisibleatnightwithonlythehowlingofwildbeastsgivingawaythepresenceoflifeon theothersideofthevastbodyofwaterIcanthelpitbutrecollectthefollowingverse: tobringthemallandindarknessbindinthelandofMordor,wheretheshadowslie. Ihaveafeelingthatthisattitudecouldbejustoneofseveralthingsunitingmyselfandmanydecent Narvainhabitants.Andthisfeelingisgood. Andthentheresthisgem(orrather,aRing)fromdeadoldEdLucas,whoexplicitlycomparesRussiatoMordor, PutintoSauronandthehissilovikhenchmentotheOrcs. ButastheskiesdarkenonceagainovertheEuropeancontinent(orMiddleEarthifyouprefer),the temptationtofindanalogiesintheLordoftheRingstrilogyisoverwhelming.Mordorisclearlythe RussianFederation,ruledbythedemonicoverlordSauron(Putin).Hisemailaddress,togivea contemporarynote,mightbesauron@gov.morder.me(thesuffixisforMiddleEarth).Thethreatfrom MordorsymbolisedbytheRingisthecombinationofdirtymoneyandauthoritarianpolitical thinking. AndSauronshenchmentheOrcsareclearlythemurderousgoonsoftheoldKGB.Thenewtwistthe UrukHai,isthemutationoftheoldSovietintelligenceservicewithorganisedcrimeandbigbusiness. SauronsalliestheNazgularetheSiloviki,thesinisterchieftainsoftheKremlinsauthoritarian capitalistsystem.LiketheNazgul,weseldomseetheirfaces. PickingoutthecastonthebadsiderunstheriskanencounterwithEnglandsferociouslibellaws.Itis nottoohard,however,toseecandidatestobeWormtongue,theslimypropagandistforMordorwho weakensthewilloftheKingofRohan,Theoden.HiskingdomcouldbealmostanycountryinEurope, buthadbetterbeGermany.AnditiseasytothinkwhomightcountasGermanysforemostexperton RussiaandabiographerofSauron.Sarumanismoredifficultstillaheroofpastwarswhohas switchedsidestodisastrouseffect.HecouldbeanyoneofthetopWestEuropeanleaderswhohaveso disastrouslyforgottenthelessonsoftheColdWarandhavebeenseducedbyMordorsdirtymoney 45.ReadmyarticleTwitterTerrorinMoldovaforinsightintojusthowconvuluted,murkyandvirtualtheeventsin Moldovareallywere. 46.ReHamas,see10WesternMediaStereotypesAboutRussia:HowTruthfulAreThey?fromRussiaBlog.ReIran, seeTheMedvedevDoctrineandAmericanStrategyfromStratfor.TheUSpotentiallyfacesatradeoffbetweena hegemonicthreatfromEurasiaandinstabilityandaterrorthreatfromtheIslamicworld,andthekeystothesethreats areRussiaandIran,respectively.ItisinRussiasinterestsfortheUStokeepfocusedontheMiddleEast,soastogive itselfafreerhandinEurasiaandinflamingrelationsbetweenIranandtheWestisanexcellentwaytodoit. 47.SeetheclassicForeignAffairsarticleTheRiseofUSNuclearPrimacy(KeirA.LieberandDarylG.Press). ReRussianICBMswouldbelaunchedovertheNorthPole,socentralEuropewouldntplayaroleargument.Not really,becausetheUShasradarinstallationsatThule,Greenland,andhassubstantialnumbersofgroundbased interceptormissilesatFortGreely,Alaska.ItalsohasrapidlyincreasingseabasedABMcapabilities.Thisisnotto saythattheUShasplanstolaunchadebilitatingfirststrikeonRussiaorotherstrategiccompetitors,butABMis certainlyadestabilizingforceinworldsecurityandrisksunleashinganarmsraceinwhichcountrieslikeRussiaare

forcedtoupgradethepenetrationcapabilitiesoftheirnucleardeliverysystems. 48.ThenationsoftheformerUSSRarestillverymucheconomicallyintegratedwithRussia,meaningthattheyare subjecttoRussiascycles;furthermore,almostallofthemaresignificantlypoorersotheyshouldgrowfasterbecause oftheirgreaterpotentialforeconomicconvergence. SeetheGeorgianEconomyunderSaakashvili,whichassertsthatmuchofGeorgiasgrowthwasoneoffbasedonstate assetsaleandgovernmentlayoffs,whichwereaccompaniedbyacceleratingdeindustrialization,continuedemigration andpoverty,thedestructionofallremainingsafetynetsandthepressureputbythegovernmentonindependent businessestoprovidevoluntarycontributionsinreturnfornotbankruptingthemunderprosecutionsforcorruption. StatsongrowthratestakenfromIMF. 49.Usheringintheneweraoflegality,marketsandsocialactivismisthesocalledPutingeneration,whichhasvastly differingvaluesfromthoseofoldergenerationsinitiative,boldness,hierarchy,individualismandWesternized patriotism(consultEconomicModernizationandSystemofValuesbyEvgenyYasinforaninterestingstudythat showsthatthevaluesofthenewRussiadiffermuchmorefromtraditionalist/TsaristandSovietvalues,whichare surprisinglysimilar). AlsoasIoncepointedout,thereareplentyofgoodsovokattributesandevensomeofthebadonesarentactuallyall thatbaduponcloserexamination. 50.IveaggregatedLevadasmeasuresofRussiassocialmoodsincethelate1990shere.MylettertotheMoscow Timescitesrecentopinionpolls,againfromLevada,todisprovethecontentionthatmoraleduringthiscrisishas collapsedbackto1990s/preoilboomlevels.