Introduction:The purpose of writing term paper on the topic of US, China and Pakistan triangular relations is very important

in contemporary world. We see after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in US and after afghan invasion by the US in 2001, the importance of the region going to its top and Pakistan as going to alignment with US on war against terrorism given all assistance to US. On the other hand we see that Pakistan close friendship with china also played a vital role in the region of south Asia. China also worries about the likely expansion of a U.S. military presence closer to China's doorstep1 . China not feel comfortable with the presence of US in Afghanistan, china feel the presence of US in the Afghanistan as security threat for their own country. Beijing
has major stakes in the war against terrorism. It has clearly enunciated that Pakistan is as central to its national security interests as Israel is to Washington.
2

The other important factor is

that we see in historical perspective the relations among china and Pakistan is consistent and relation of Pakistan and US is always in changing faces. US have no other option to make good relation with Pakistan if they want victory in Afghanistan; because Pakistan is the most important neighbouring country of Afghanistan and US most of the actions in Afghanistan are taken place with the help of Pakistan. So it s important for all stake holders in the region a peaceful Afghanistan because instability of Afghanistan could affect the whole region, and for the sake of peaceful Afghanistan it s important for US to stay in Afghanistan until the insurgency is not stopped. Another aspect of writing this term paper is that we see that America always claiming from Pakistan that, Pakistan should take action against terrorist which are in the Pakistan territory. American s always claiming from Pakistan Do More on the war against terrorism. So its really humiliating situation for Pakistan because Pakistan is the most effected country of war against terrorism and Pakistan lost his thirty five thousand
. Mohan Malik, Dragon on Terrorism: China s Tactical Gains and Strategic Losses Post September-11 , Report published by Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, October 2002. Available on the internet at http://www.comw.org/rma/fulltext/0210malik.pdf. 2 . Vijai K. Nair, America s War on Terrorism and Chinese Strategy , Published in China Brief, Volume 2, Issue 5, February 28, 2002 by the Jamestown Foundation. Available on the internet at http://www.jamestown.org/china_brief/article.php?articleid=2373034.
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people civilian as well as military man. And also Pakistan borders from Afghanistan also not secure and NATO allies which are present in Afghanistan many times violating the sovereignty of Pakistan by attacking many of Pakistan military posts near afghan border. So the point is if Pakistan continues under the US threat Pakistan must be free to see the other options instead of only relying on US aid. And china suited the best because of long history of china and Pakistan relations, and we see that wherever Pakistan feel threat from America, china always posing a supporting gesture for Pakistan. It s better for Pakistan to make bilateral and good relation with china which is the now the world 3rd biggest economy and also a neighbour country of Pakistan.

 Sino-Pak Relations in Historical Perspective:Pakistan recognized the People Republic of China in 1950, being the third non-communist state in which the two nations established formal diplomatic relations. Bilateral relations were further emphasized at the Bandung Conference in 1955, where talks between the two heads of state played an important role in promoting understanding, and developing friendly relations and cooperation between the two countries. In 1961, Pakistan furthered relations when it voted for a bill concerning the restoration of China s legitimate rights in the UN. Worsening in Sino-Indian relations, which culminated in the 1962 war, provided further opportunities for Sino-Pak cooperation and in 1963 both countries sign an agreement on border relations, and the construction of a road linking China s XingjianUygur autonomous region with the northern areas of Pakistan. They signed their first trade agreement in 1963 and, in the years that followed, diplomatic exchanges increased significantly. Their strategic partnership was initially driven by the mutual need to counter the Soviet Union and India, and China supported Pakistan in its two wars against India, in 1965 and 1971, with both military and economic assistance. The military alliance led further to the creation of a Joint Committee for Economy, Trade and Technology in 1982, and China soon began, in the late 1980s, discussing the possible sales of M-11 missiles and related technology to Pakistan. Relations since then have continued on the same steady path, especially as the United States, after the events of 9/11, expressed a new strategic commitment to India. In 2005, China and Pakistan signed a landmark Treaty of Friendship and Co-operation,

whereby they committed that Neither party will join any alliance or bloc which infringes upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of either nation, while

simultaneously positing that both parties would not conclude treaties of this nature with any 3rd party. 3 In sum, during the post Cold War era, China emerged as Pakistan s most important strategic backer against the Indian aggression India. China was the source of initial design information for Pakistan s nuclear weapons and assisted with the building of the latter s nuclear technology complex. On the whole, China has been Pakistan s most important source of modern conventional weaponry and a vital source of trade and investment. 4 China found in this military relationship with Pakistan a useful bargaining tool against Washington while discussing issues important to China like US arms sales to Taiwan etc. China s close ties with Pakistan allowed the form a greater sphere of influence extending to South Asia, as well as a bridge between the Muslim world and Beijing. It is within such a framework by Dr. Kenneth Lieberthal, Lieberthal is director of the John L. Thornton China Centre and senior fellow in Foreign Policy argue that, traditionally, the major factor for China was a hedge against India and for Pakistan, aside from providing strategic leverage against India; relations with China gave Pakistan access to civilian and military resources. The relationship, Lieberthal continues, is still of great strategic importance today where, for the past 40 years, the cornerstone of Pakistan s foreign policy has been its military relationship with China, and Now that China is trying to build its global sphere of influence- for which it needs Pakistan- it doesn t mind if Pakistan becomes a regional power in the meantime5 . China need of Pakistan is beneficiary in the context of international scenario and for Pakistan its benefit in the regional perspective as well as international.

Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good Neighbourly Relations between the People s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan , Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People s Republic of China, 5 April 2005.<http://fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zilao3602/3604/defa ult.htm> 4 Pakistan: Foreign Security Relationships, US Library of Congress- Country Studies, April 1994. <http://lcweb2.loc/cgibin/query/D?cstdy:14:./temp/~frd_WJdn ::> 5 Kenneth Lieberthal as quoted in Ester Pan, China and Pakistan: A deepening bond, Council on Foreign Relations, 8 March 2006.<http://www.cfr.org/publication/10070/china_and_pakistan.html>

 Sino-Pak Relations in Contemporary World:After the establishment of newly elected democratic government in Pakistan after 2008 elections, its seems that instead of military govt of Mushraff, the new govt developed more good relations with china. Pakistan under the shift on the policy on war against terrorism and their relations with US is also in state of confrontations. So Pakistan knows in the position to take a total shift in his policy from US alignment to see his own interests in the region. On 17 October 2008, a website text stated that the new Pakistani President s visit to China and his signing of a 15-point agreement including military and economic partnership was indicative of Pakistan s total dependence on China. It also said that China felt happy that Pakistan was no longer wavering between China and the US. China considers Pakistan as its mutually-complementary strategic partner in terms of

economic cooperation ; and as a faithful ally in forming military strategy. 6 The main achievements and concerns of Sino-Pak relations are as the following:

All Weather Partners:y

Pakistan and china because of their long term friendship call each other all-weather friends and their close ties have been underpinned by longstanding wariness of their common neighbor, India, and a desire to hedge against US influence across the region.

After the United States killed Osama bin Laden September 11, 2001, attacks

the mastermind of the

in Pakistan on May 2, China called the

event a progressive development but also defended the Pakistani government, which has been criticized in the United States for failing to find bin Laden, if not harboring him.

. Priyadarshi-Mukherji The Chinese vision of Sino-Pak strategic partnership : I http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlight/The-Chinese-vision-of-Sino-Pak-strategic-partnership-I.html

 Conventional Arms, Nuclear Power, Port Access :y

China has been Pakistan s biggest supplier of conventional arms, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute s database, and many analysts believe China supported Pakistan s nuclear weapons program in past decades.

China has helped Pakistan build its main nuclear power generation facility at Chashma in Punjab province, where a second, 330 MW unit started last week, and it has plans to build two more there, despite international misgivings about risks to nuclear safety and the integrity of nonproliferation rules.

Last year, the China National Nuclear Corp said it was also in talks about building a separate 1-gigawatt atomic plant in Pakistan.

China has helped build the deep-sea Gwadar port on Pakistan s Arabian Sea coast, partly with a view to opening up an energy and trade corridor from the Gulf, across Pakistan, to western China.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has visited China frequently, and urged China to invest more in his country.

 Trade Hopes:y

Annual two-way trade was worth $8.7 billion in 2010, a rise of 27.7 percent on the previous year, according to Chinese statistics.

Trade flows go heavily in China s favor, and last year it exported goods worth $6.9 billion to Pakistan, a rise of 25.5 percent on 2009, while Chinese imports from Pakistan were worth $1.7 billion, a rise of 37.2 percent.

Pakistani officials have recently said the neighbors could increase bilateral trade to $15 billion a year by the end of 2012.

China helped build Gwadar port in Baluchistan, and the Karakoram Highway, connecting northern Pakistan to far western China, which could be upgraded to provide a conduit for Chinese energy imports from other markets.

 Security Concerns:y

China has urged mainly Muslim Pakistan to take action against Uighur militants from the western Chinese region of Xinjiang who has slipped in to Pakistan in past years.

On July 5, 2009, violence broke out between Muslim Uighurs and Han Chinese in Xinjiang, killing 197 people, many of them Han residents attacked by Uighurs. Pakistan deplored the riots, winning praise from China for its stance.

During a visit to Xinjiang in August, President Zardari promised to work closely with China in the fight against terrorism, after Chinese officials blamed militants trained in Pakistan for an attack in the region.

The safety of Chinese nationals working in Pakistan has also been a major concern for China. Several Chinese workers were killed in militant attacks in Pakistan in recent years.
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 Threats to Sino-Pak Relations i.

American Factor:Maintaining friendly relations with two rival nations is not an easy task, and it s no different for Pakistan, with respect to China and the US. Since the USA and China have been traditional rivals, Pakistan is required to do a fine balancing role to keep both nations happy with it. Mutual suspicion between the US and China makes each of these two allies of Pakistan look at any developmental
7

.Reuters, Sino-Pak friendship: All weather partners http://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/132877-sino-pak-relations-us-pak-tensionsrise-9.html. Accessed Date 1-1-2012

measure of the other with Pakistan with a sense of panic and doubt. To quote an example for the above, the American s suspicion of Chinese intentions at Gwadar is corroborated by an internal report prepared for the Pentagon entitled Energy Futures in Asia , which states that Beijing has already set up electronic eavesdropping posts at Gwadar which monitor ship traffic through the Straight of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea. Pakistan will have to play its cards carefully in the international arena, so has to keep both the US and China appeased, without making personal compromises. ii.

Indian Factor:In the past, India was a catalyst to relations between Pakistan and

China, due to its hostilities and border disputes with China. But in recent times, relations between India and China have improved significantly even leading up to cooperative measures in business and other fields. This does not promise too well for Pakistan, considering that China s siding with Pakistan has been a god-send at times Indo-Pak hostilities. Good relations between India and Pakistan could lead to China being non-committal or neutral at such times, which is naturally a disadvantage. That apart, improved economic and business relation between India and China will provide a new competitor for Pakistan in Chinese markets. This can be a big disadvantage considering India s natural resources and current standing in the world market.

iii.

Terrorism:In recent times, Pakistan has been plagued by terrorism, especially in

areas NWFP. That, in general, is bad news for the internal situation in Pakistan, which makes it a detractor for investments by Chinese business entities in the Pakistani market. Huge losses are suffered in attacks of terrorists. Apart from these indirect threats, in a tragic incident in 2006, 3 Chinese Engineers were killed by terrorists in an attack in Quetta, near the site of the Gwadar sea port construction. Before this, in 2004, 3 other Chinese engineers were killed in a similar

attack. And 5 months later, 2 Chinese engineers were abducted by militants, out of which, one was rescued and the other was killed in the course of the rescue operation. Chinese citizens killings in Pakistan are a real threat to Sino-Pak relations and a source of embarrassment for Pakistan. It is no exaggeration to state that Pakistan desperately needs to handle the threat of terrorism within its territory, to improve the internal situation as well as provide smooth relations with China.

iv.

Trade Imbalance:Chinese products have a strong and popular market, not only

in Pakistan, but the entire world. Now this imbalance between Chinese and Pakistani products for trade might prove a hindrance in Sino-Pak relations. This risk is realistic especially in the face of a prospective FTA agreement between Pakistan and China. A possible situation as a result might be that Pakistani markets are flooded by Chinese products, they being superior in quality and low on price. As a result, Pakistan would gain nothing out of this deal and would lose out on tax etc. that the Chinese sellers would have to pay, if Free Trade were not in place. Further, this could cripple Pakistan s own economy as a fall of Pakistani products in the market. This could force Pakistan to call for a reduction in Chinese products in the Pakistani markets. In order for harmonious relations to be maintained, such an imbalance has to be avoided and this takes a very high priority.

 SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:It is very clear to us that The People s Republic of China emerged on the globe as a communist ideological state on 1949. Due to its communist ideology, its recognition as a state to capitalist economy was a bit difficult. Thus, the relations to United States by China were established in 1970 s when the visit of Henry Kissinger and President Nixon took place to China. Henry Kissinger personally met the Head of the State of China. President Nixon and His wife along with the team of Foreign Office, tried to established good trade and diplomatic relations between the states.

 Sino-American Relations In Contemporary World:The United States and the People's Republic of China are neither allies nor enemies; the U.S. government and military establishment do not regard the Chinese as an opponent, but as a competitor in economic field. On the basis of GDP, China is the third largest economy with $7800, 000,000,000 competing with USA by $14,580,000,000,000. By the end of Cold war, the end of common enemy (USSR) took place and then the cooperation to fight against a common enemy was over. In the contemporary world PRC and United States are major trade partners and have common interests in the prevention and suppression of terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Bilateral Relation during the recent years has taken a very interesting and cooperating touch. On July 28, 2009, the Vice Premier of China had a visit to Washington to discuss the outcomes of the first US China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. In the particular meeting the outcome was to make agreements but not just dialogues. During the Presidential Election Campaign of United States, John McCain and Barack Obama enthusiastically talked about policy towards China on friendly economic, diplomatic basis and other major issues, but they had a different opinion towards trade relations with China. President Obama and administration along with President Hu Jintao has increased co-operation and levels of friendship between the two states. Especially in the context of Greenpeace, both states are dealing with this issue on friendly basis. Both are the most influential and powerful country in the world, there are very strong suggestions that both countries should establish G2 (Chimerica) relationship for the US and China to solve out the global problems together. The Strategic Economic Dialogue initiated by Former US President Bush and Chinese President Hu led to a variety of issues. Obama Administration observed and adds more relevant and appropriate previous issues in the present scenario, to have focused on the economic crisis, finding ways to cooperate to stop global warming and addressing issues such as the proliferation of nuclear weapons and humanitarian crises. President Barack Obama visited China in November 2009 to discuss economic threats, nuclear weapon proliferation, and the need for action against climate change.

When there is cooperation in relations, there are constraints too. In January 2010, the US proposed a $6.4 billion arms sale to China. This could be a good support to the world largest army, China, but in response, China threatened to impose sanctions on US arms supplying companies in Taiwan. China, then, also suspended cooperation on certain regional and international issues because of this step. The biggest problem was that Dalai Lama, who caused constraints in the relations. It happened in February 2010, when President Obama met with Dalai Lama, who was accused of creating unrest in Tibet. At that point in time the Officials of China warned American government to not come into the domestic and regional politics of the states and they must keep themselves away from such relations on personal basis. China is the major state to lend debts to US; it is the largest foreign holder of US public debt. That s why it criticizes the US deficit and Fiscal Policies. China has secured their investment in US treasuries and asked them for the policies that maintain the purchasing value of dollar. Because China is the largest creditor of the world's

superpower so it has every right to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and United States must ensure the safety of China's dollar assets. Taiwan is a major cause of tension in relations between the US and China. PRC never governed Taiwan but it claims Taiwan as its 23rd Province and has repeatedly threatened to take it by coercion. US sales large amount of weaponry to Taiwan, and it has sympathy for Taiwan because she has transformed into a pluralistic society with liberal democracy. Any accession to the China may also change the balance of power in the region in both political and military terms. US has stated a commitment to China s Policy, in which it knows the China's position that Taiwan is part of China, but does not give clear perception whether it agrees with this stance or not. In Taiwan, Public polls stated the existence of status quo. Some leaders in Taiwan have expressed the idea that Taiwan must act quickly and should formally declare independence, because of longterm interest of China in the favour of Chinese economic and military power, will let them suffer their freedom. In case Taiwan declares Independence and to counter it China Attacks on it then there would be a greater problem for United States to Either Support China or Taiwan. We observe that if US tend to support China then the Arms Supplying companies of US will suffer a great deal of loss. If US tries to support Taiwan

then the Diplomatic and Economic relations will be affected; moreover China is the major creditor to US so there would be a really big pressure to go for any of the one state. To an extent we can assume that it should remain neutral but still then it would face problems like arms and diplomatic. During 2010, China warned the United States that their cooperation on international and regional issues could suffer over the administration's decision to sell arms to Taiwan. China further announced that it might penalize some of the companies involved in building the arms hardware for Taiwan. China was willing to engage with the US on human rights after 2005, but then China agreed but could not fulfil the requirements on the basis of ideology. The Chinese government acknowledged the principle of the importance of protection of human rights in mainland China and accepted to have taken steps to bring its human rights practices into socio-cultural values with international norms, which has not yet been ratified. China released a significant number of political and religious prisoners and agreed to interact with United Nations experts on torture, random imprisonment, and religion. In 2008, the State Department found much to criticize about the Chinese government's human rights record, but they dropped the name of China from its list of states with the greatest human rights violations. China's economic rise has led to some geo-political friction between the US and China in the East Asian region. For example, in response to the increased American attacks on Pakistan during the Obama administration, the PRC has offered additional fighter jets to Pakistan. The ultimate purpose of China is to provide a gateway to US to not have any sort of influence in the region or to the neighbouring countries through its aggressive policies. South East Asian nations have responded to Chinese claims for sea areas by seeking closer relations with the United States which means they are not in the favour of naval control of China, as its influence is dominating the regions and the world politics too.

 Pak-US Relations IN Contemporary World:Pakistan presents the picture of a split nation and a failing state in mid-2011. Pakistan has presented this picture in the past many times over but was pulled from the brink by the United States

by a providential coincidence of Pakistan Army reinventing its strategic utility to serve United States strategic interests and the United States readily exploiting the mercenary instincts of the rentier Pakistan Army.
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The strategic importance of the Pakistan Army to serve United States strategic interests in the region has worn particularly since 2007 and the United States going by the record of Pakistan Army s duplicitous performance has belatedly realized that its policy formulations on Pakistan Army were grievously misplaced. For far too long the United States policy establishment had labored under the misimpression that the key to handling and managing Pakistan to serve United States interests was the Pakistan Army and its Generals. This took place despite all the damning evidence to the contrary. Whether the United States in mid-2011 cares to admit or not the ground realities in Pakistan suggest that the United States has been using the wrong key to manage Pakistan through the Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army today has fully emerged in the open as not the solution to bring stability in Pakistan but it is the predominant part of the problem.

y America's war:The US also accuses Pakistan of failing to stop the movement of Taliban fighters to Afghanistan from sanctuaries in Pakistan. But it is true that policing a mountainous border 2,400 km (1,500 miles) long is an enormous challenge, especially when the Afghan government refuses to recognize the frontier. "As long as it is the army that is leading the way, many Pakistanis will continue to see this as America's war""We can't do it," the same general told us. "The only way is to put up a sophisticated fencing system, and that's an international responsibility." Pakistan does face a serious threat from Islamist militancy. But as long as it is the army that is leading the way, with little apparent support from the people, many Pakistanis will continue to see this as America's war.

, Dr Subhash Kapila, PAKISTAN FRACTURED AND FAILING: UNITED STATES POLICY OPTIONS /Journal of the South Asia Analysis Group, no 4588,( 07-July-2011), Available on the internet at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers46%5Cpaper4588.html

That is why the army itself is advocating a debate in parliament, so the country can evolve its own policy. Some say the only way to win crucial public backing for the battle against Islamist violence, is to de-link it from America's war in Afghanistan. That seems impossible. No matter how much the people here oppose America's Afghan policies, no Pakistani government or army can scupper the relationship with Washington. They depend too much on US assistance. It is a fundamental contradiction that is fuelling tensions and explains why families feel proud that their soldier sons were martyred by Pakistan's most important ally. Pakistan is an indispensable ally in the war on terror, our desire for long-term relationship is not confined to military aspect alone, we are working very hard to find ways to increase our economic and social development programs in Pakistan and find ways to demonstrate to the people of Pakistan the value of the strategic relationship

 United States-Pakistan Army Contemporary Relationship: The Widening Trust Deficit & Its Implications:The United States for over half a century never evolved or focused on any substantive political relationship in comprehensive terms with Pakistan as a nation-state. The United States policy approaches towards the Pakistani nation state stood rested and based overwhelmingly on a strategic and military considerations -based United States-Pakistan Army relationship. In 2011 the picture and state of United States-Pakistan Army relationship is dismal. Gone is the fizz which characterized this much vaunted strategic partnership and even the superficially contrived colorations given by the United States so far to this relationship stands today replaced by a yawning trust deficit between the United States and the Pakistan Army. Media reports and analyses in the United States and within Pakistan abound testifying to this trend. It began more noticeably in 2007 and the tipping point was reached when the United States targeted liquidation of Osama bin Laden took place in the Pakistan Army major garrison city of Abbottabad in early May 2011.

In the wake of the Abbottabad operation by the United States Special Forces in which fingers stood pointed to Pakistan Army & ISI complicity in hiding Osama within a Pakistan Army major garrison cantonment for five years and Pakistan Army feigning no knowledge, trust deficit between the two strategic partners have gone into a tailspin. More noticeably, the following need to be highlighted:
y

United States continues with its drone strikes despite Pakistan Army Chief s declaration that the United States ceases to do so

United States has refused to vacate Shamsi Air Base from where US drone strikes are mounted

Pakistan Army border posts are being attacked from the Afghan side of the border, now for a change

United States has sidelined Pakistan Army from its direct talks with the Afghan Taliban

y y

United States has withheld Coalition Support Funds to the Pakistan Army Intensified US media criticism of Pakistan Army/ISI involvement with Al Qaeda and other Islamic militant organizations targeting USA

For the first time calls are being made by US dignitaries/officials demanding greater accountability by the Pakistan Army.

The major implications of the growing trust deficit in United States-Pakistan relationship can be visualized as under:
y

Current indicators do not provide any optimism of United States attempting to retrieve the strategic partnership

Pakistan Army would increasingly play the China Card to offset strong US pressures for accountability and restricting inflow of US military and financial aid

Pakistan Army attempts to play the Iran Card against the United States

Pakistan Army returns to a greater proxy use of Al Qaeda and Taliban surrogates that it has nurtured against the United States and the West

Pakistan Army without a US leash may be tempted to resort to military adventurism against India to divert greater domestic loss of Army s image

 Assessment of Pak-US & China Triangular Relations:As far as the relationship of China and America is concerned, in this perspective the Book of Henry Kissinger On China owns a great importance. He has related that the future relations with china will cause a smooth financial and good diplomatic relations. He has said that the superpower and big power must have cooperative relations. In the personal review to this whole study of China and US relation in the favour of Pakistan, I have come across the fact that China is a sole supporter of Pakistan and it wants to have good diplomatic and cooperative relations with Pakistan. At the same time, it has some reservations from Pakistan to have not taken any step against the violation of its territory. China is an Emerging power but there is a fear in the context of economy as well that if it remain on the same path then it will have to face problem in the context of dollar s value and its minor economy. Overall, if in International relations we see that Both the state are playing good role in securing their interest but they are going to face severe problems over the issue of Economy, Korea, and Taiwan, human rights, and for US to maintain its hegemony and for China to creates it Hegemony. China has begun to dominate the economy of the bigger states and it is soon going to have a lasting impact on the fiscal and monetary policies of America. The United States under President Obama needs to craft newer beginnings in its policy approaches towards Pakistan. The Pakistan Army is no longer relevant and capable of serving United States strategic interests in the region. The Pakistan Army has proved itself otherwise. The United States needs to learn the relevant lessons from the recent upheavals in the Arab World where changing political dynamics have rendered irrelevant the authoritarian and military or military-dominant regimes. People s power swept away such regimes backed by the United States. Coming to Pakistan, the eventuality of Pakistan peoples street power prevailing over the Pakistan Army in the

near future cannot be ruled out and especially in light of the events of May 2011.In terms of crafting policy options to deal with a fractured and failing Pakistan, the United States would be well advised to politically and economically invest in the people of Pakistan and their civilian democratic governments rather than a politically meddlesome Pakistan Army unworthy of US strategic trust. While there exists no doubt that the Pakistan-China and Pakistan-US relations are at critical moment and any change in either is bound to impact the other, an objective analysis of the prevailing situation and the ground realities leads one to the following conclusions:
y

According to a Pew Global Attitudes Project (pewglobal.org) survey of Pakistani public opinion in 2010, 85 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of China, and 3 percent said they had an unfavorable view. By contrast, 17 percent had a favorable view of the United States, and 68 percent had an unfavorable view

Pakistan s democratically elected government would continue to support the US in the War on Terror. It would simultaneously strive to ensure that the Uighur separatists from Xinjiang are neither afforded any help nor safe havens on Pakistani soil.

Pakistan

would adopt a middle-of-the-road foreign policy aimed at

accommodating the needs and requirements of both, China and the United States. Under the present circumstances, Pakistan cannot afford to distance itself from either.
y

Since financial constraints dictate that Pakistan resort to a suitable qualityquantity mix in its military weapons, it would continue to rely on the US for quality while depending on China for quantity.

With the foundations of democratic order having been laid in Pakistan, one could conclude that the role of the military in affairs of state would gradually reduce. As regards the ISI, since it is a military-operated institution, one could expect its

role on the international scene also reducing correspondingly with an element of civilian control over its activities.

The End