Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Research Report1

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
2009 12 15
6) /
2013
29
2009-2015
115%
2.5
3.12
2009-2015-2.1
6.1
2009-20156.7
4G
2015
HSPALTE
-0.22012
12Wi-Fi
2015
2.1-3.8
86%
31
6iPhone
iTouch
KDDI NTT docomo
KDDIVerizoniPhone
271
#6
-

4G

2009 12 15
20106AT&T
ATT
Verizon
800
iPhone
11
ATTiPhone
iPhone
ATT/
272

2009 12 15
#6
#6
1)
50 5
2)
5 3G + + + +
3)
4) / +
5) /
#6
6) /
7)
8) /
273

2009 12 15
6
/
Cisco2013 IP 66
130% 3G / +
/ +
+ Wi-Fi
/// Wi-Fi
VoIP
6
/
2013IP66 +130%
.
+ /
: .
274

2009 12 15
735
50MB
200
15 MB
iPhone 150MB 3
10
150MB / iPhone
201350%

/ = 3/
2-3
!
!
Ehud Gelblum
1MB

100ms
3
60% 3/5
3iPhone
150
160
120
80
#6
MB
50
40
30
15
iPhone
iPhone
Ehud Gelblum
275

2009 12 15
511
150MB/
60%3
AT&T+
+ + HSPA 7.2
20102010
Ehud Gelblum
/
:
---+
HSPA+ 4G LTE

Wi-Fi
-
3%
40%
Simon Flannery
276

2009 12 15
/
:
WAN
Mbps

/ DSL / T1 / TDM
Wi-Fi - Wi-Fi
+ HSPA+4G LTE
Ehud Gelblum
#6
277

2009 12 15

+ 2008-2013131%

2008 2013
2008-2013
131%
2,000,000
112%
1,500,000
101%
1,000,000
154%
P2P
500,000
112%
0
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2008-2013 2/09

+ iPhone + 29%
1 1000MB 3G 2
iPhone 200MB 3 20MB
/ iPhone / 2008 2013
1,200
1,000
800
-13
08
%
29
08-13
55%
iPhone
53%
23%
600
400
200
0
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Ovum Katy HubertyiPhone
278

2009 12 15

08-1325% =
2006 2013
500
27%
30%
24%
21%
18%
300
18%
15%
12%
11%
200
12%
8%
100
6%
24%
400
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Gartner

55% =
3G+ / / USB 2008 2013
250
150
100
-13
8
0
5
203MM
150MM
108MM
#6
200
73MM
44MM
50
23MM
0
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Ovum.
279

2009 12 15

115%
/
2008 2013 MS
500
2008-2013
MS
407 MB
115%
98%
P2P
87%
137%
97%
/ /MB
400
300
210 MB
200
100 MB
100
46 MB
9 MB
20 MB
2008
2009E
0
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2008-2013 2/09 Ovum Katy Huberty.
280

2009 12 15
=
2004 2008 8
NTT docomo 4/01 2/09
90
81
70
60
HSDPA
74
//
50
40
30
3G FOMA
20
04-088
80
10
1.2
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3G FOMA
2007
2008
2G Mova
NTT docomo
AT&T =
350
062 09240%
12%50 267%
AT&T3%13 AT&T
40%
AT&T CQ2:06 CQ2:09
5000
100
3000
2000
32
9
90
80
70
1000
60
AT&T MM
4000
#6
AT&T
CQ2:06=100
50
CQ2:06
CQ4:06
CQ2:07
CQ4:07
CQ2:08
CQ4:08
CQ2:09
AT&T.
281

2009 12 15
=
iPhone
75%
/ 3G /
08111GB2.xG 1000
AUPU
1GB
1000
120%
100%
100
iPhone 3G+ &
3G/3G+
10
80%
60%
40%
20%
18%
27%
0%
EDGE
75%
>100%
Orange AUPU 1108 GfK CQ1:08

Ofcom Informa
=
100%
NTT docomo =
90%
80%
60%
=
70%
40%
20%
0%
CQ2:05 CQ4:05 CQ2:06 CQ4:06 CQ2:07 CQ4:07 CQ2:08 CQ4:08 CQ2:09
NTT docomo
= ~12 bits / CQ2:07.

282

2009 12 15
NTT docomo 54%

-2%
NTT docomo / 052
092
140
120
MB / /
100
80
60
40
20
0
CQ2:05
CQ4:05
CQ2:06
CQ4:06
CQ2:07
3G
CQ4:07
CQ2:08
CQ4:08
CQ2:09
Hironori Tanaka
/ CQ2:07 CQ3:09
15
2.5x
VOD
70%
10
#6
CQ2:07
= VOD CQ2:07
45%
09
C
Q
3:
09
Q
2:
C
Q
1:
09
08
C
Q
4:
08
Q
3:
C
Q
2:
08
08
Q
1:
C
Q
4:
07
07
Q
3:
C
Q
2:
07
PB /
CQ2:07
4
283

2009 12 15
69%
4%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
30%
40%
50%
16%
14%
60%
P2P
70%
11%
24%
80%
90%
100%
- 6/09
+
3G / +
INQ /
Last.fm /
Skype +
/
//
/
Palm WebOS
/
3G
SlingPlayer
284

2009 12 15
7/09
- iPhone 3G
/ ?
Netflix?
/
Skype?
#6
285

2009 12 15
//
: 1---
PC World Novarum Ehud Gelblum
30% =
= 30%
5%90%
iPhone
iPhone
iPhone
2010
iPhone
286

2009 12 15

2009 246,0002003 50%
2006E 2010E
2006E
2007E
2008E
2009E
61000 65000 65200 65400
48000 49000 50000 52000
27500 29500 31500 41500
7500
7750
8000
35400 37900 44000 47000
5925
6383
6877
7043
4330
6190
8890 10500
3400
5500
8000 10500
1200
2249
8000 12000
194255 209472 230467 245943
2010E
65500
54000
43500
#6
Sprint
AT&T
Verizon
Alltel
T-Mobile
US Cellular
Leap Wireless
MetroPCS
Clearwire
49000
7250
10750
10750
20000
260750
Verizon2009Alltel
Simon Flannery
287

2009 12 15
Verizon - 3G
AT&T Sprint and T-MobileCDMA
850MHz

2G3G4G

HSPALTE
Simon Flannery
T1s/
T1 Mbit/s
/
TB/
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
243
271
289
301
312
253514
270537
286825
303325
319825
2013E
322
336325
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
31104000 31104000 31104000 31104000 31104000 31104000

6311094
6691054
7075966
7460878
7845790
TB/
//MB/
75709
26
205175
63
492071
142
1091319
302
2419467
646
4777125
1235
TB/
//MB/
145177
50
162372
50
172769
50
180165
50
186729
50
192852
50
TB/
220886
367547
664839
1271484
2606196
4969977
5913968
4%
6%
10%
18%
35%
63%
-T1s 6 Mbps/ 2013

122012
* T1* T1 / 8/ * / / 1MM.
24
Simon Flannery
288

2009 12 15

HSPA 3.6 to HSPA 7.2 T1s

Simon Flannery

/ 5%
90%30%
-
/
#6
Ehud Gelblum
289

2009 12 15
= 21.6 Mbps
3/2/
3.6Mbps
3 * 2 * 3.6 Mbps = 21.6 Mbps
= 21.6 Mbps
3.6Mbps
Ehud Gelblum
290

2009 12 15
= 21.6Mbit/s

75% = 16.2Mbit/s
= 1350
/= 12 Kbit/s
Ehud Gelblum
3 / 2 / HSPA 3.6 Mbps

150 MB /
120%
100%
60%
40%
~25% CQ3:09
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
#6
80-90%
20%
0%
80%
%
75%
Ehud Gelblum
291

2009 12 15
2G / 3G / 4G /
Wi-Fi
T1 / /
Illustration per France Telecom.
292

2009 12 15

+
131% 2013IP
<4% <1%
IP% 2008 2013E
5%
3.9%
4%
IP%
3%
2.5%
2%
1.6%
1.0%
1%
0.6%
0.3%
0%
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Cisco 2008 2013.
/
3
T1 1 1.5 Mbps
12 T1
12 x 1.5 Mbps = 18
Mbps.

3G HSPA 2 x 5 MHz = 10
MHz.
2G 3G 4G
T1
1Gbps
#6

FiberTower TTM
30 T1s45
Mbps400-600 Mbps
293

2009 12 15
Raw Network Capacity Can Be Added in a Variety of Ways

12-24
HSPA
/ +
Wi-Fi /
2-4
LTE
WiChorus 3GPP.org WiMax.org Ehud Gelblum
HSPA
2009 2011
/ +
2009 2011
Wi-Fi /
2009 2011
2010 2012
LTE
$__MMMM2010 2013
$1200
2010 2013
/ /
Simon Flannery Ehud Gelblum
294

2009 12 15
HSPA /
+ + / Wi-Fi
+

HSPA
#6
295

2009 12 15
100%
/MBGPRS %
80%
60%
WCDMA HSPA
50%
HSPA LTE
>>50%
40%
20%
0%
GPRS
EDGE 2.5G WCDMA 3G HSDPA 3.5G
HSPA+
LTE 4G
Ovum Telstra Nokia Siemens Networks 2008.
296

2009 12 15
+ /
TDM
T1 / E1 = T1
1.5Mb/s 400-600
/
Yankee
/ 6001000Mb/s =
4002500 /
YankeeADC Nokia Siemens via 3G Americas
201212 / /
25 Mbps 2012
300 Mbps129%

AT&T- 38%3G + 2009
40% 2011 90%
2009 2012E
300
300
#6
Mb /
250
200
150
100
100
50
50
25
0
Today
2010E
2011E
2012E
AT&T FiberTower
297

2009 12 15
/ DSL/
/ xDSL
100 Mbps
//
>1Gbps
1 Gbps
1 Gbps
1000
ft
>70%
>99.99%
>99.99%
>99.99%
TDM +
DSL
FiberTower Ericsson
TDM
/DSL//

1Gb/s

1000

/ DSL
600Mb/s 400
/2500/
ATT Verizon Qwest Comcast

TimeWarnerCable
FiberTower TTM
DragonWave Ericsson
298

2009 12 15

Wi-Fi /
Wi-Fi
10
Wi
Wi--Fi
Fi
3G
35MM*
70%
3G+
3G
#6
/ /
Wi-Fi
862MM
2008
* 35MM Wi-Fi WeFi275000/ / /
Wi-Fi Wi-Fi AT&T In-Stat Wi-Fi Alliance WeFi.
299

2009 12 15
Wi-Fi = 3G10
Wi-Fi4G2
Wi-Fi 3G10 Wi-Fi22Mbits3G1-3Mbit/s
= Wi-Fi1001.5-5+
Mbit/s
-100
100
200
300
400
500
600
Wi-Fi
LTE
WiMax
Wi-Fi
3G
EDGE
Wi-Fi 802.11n 20099IEEE 802.11n 2008 / 2009

//

Wi-Fi
/
Wi-Fi70% AT&T70%3G
Wi-Fi 2.4Ghz +
+ Wi-Fi 50-100
3G 2000/+ 150/T1
Wi-Fi
/ Wi-Fi
203G30 Wi-Fi
<50 + 5/Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi 802.11n +
LTE + 4G
Wi-Fi
AT&T
300

2009 12 15
Wi-Fi 20%
2013 Wi-Fi
864MM Wi-Fi2008 20132B 2013Wi-Fi
/ 19%747MM2008319MM
Broadcom / Atheros
/ Wi-Fi
201382% 20MM Wi-Fi 201344%
350MM 201325% 37MM
Wi-F 2013 80%Wi-Fi

200840%
Wi-Fi 3G AT&TiPhone CQ2:09 iPhone
OS 3.0 3G Wi-Fi
+ Wi-Fi74%
Wi-Fi77%/--- Wi-Fi
ABI20093
ABI Research Informa
Wi-Fi/
iPhone70%Wi-Fi iPhone
38 75000 45%iPhone90000
// Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi // 2008Wi-Fi16% / 28% /
17% 20088MM Wi-Fi / 38MM /29MM 2008
64% / 63% / 63%Wi-Fi201150%
+ Wi-Fi AT&T + T-Mobile
/// Wi-Fi AT&T20K+7000
2009411000/
#6
35MM / Wi-Fi59K
40K
WeFi JiWire ITU IDC Impress R&D
301

2009 12 15
Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
14%
AT&T/3G
AT&T / Verizon / Sprint 12
12%
iPhone / /
Wi-Fi
8%
6%
4%
2%
H
ou
st
on
Se
at
tle
B
os
to
n
la
s
D
al
ph
ia
ca
go
Ph
il a
de
l
Sa
C
hi
n
n
Fr
a
D
C
LA
Yo
rk
0%
N
ew
% Wi-Fi
10%
Wi-Fi AdMobIP AdMob 1/09
7000 AT&T Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
2Wi-Fi Google Maps.
302

2009 12 15
Wi-Fi 1
AT&T
AT&T1500Wi-Fi 200923 AT&T
3G / 2G 4Wi-Fi
AT&TWi-Fi2009
74003
AT&T Wi-Fi 20091-20096
6
Wi-Fi
iPhone 3.0 OS Wi-Fi iPhone Wi-Fi

20096M/M330%
0
1/09
iPhone
2/09
3/09
LaptopConnect /
4/09
5/09
6/09
/
AT&T
Wi-Fi 2
Iliad
Iliad TV / DSL Wi-Fi
300
90%176
/ / IP/ Wi-Fi
1Mbps25%
Wi-Fi + 2009
2Iliad51%
2006241%
IliadWi-Fi = =
#6
Iliad freebox-wifi.fr
303

2009 12 15
Wi-Fi 3
Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
Iliad BT
Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
O2BT50BTFon
Openzone POPiPhone
BTO2/Wi-Fi
T-Mobile USA1AT&T
Barnes & Noble
Wi-Fi
Nick Delfas
=
Wi-Fi
+
2013 1,400 PB / 64% /

Wi-Fi
iPhone42%+ iTouchWi-Fi100% = 65%

Wi-Fi
2008 2013
AT&T Wi-Fi
1,500,000
TB /
1,200,000
900,000
600,000
300,000
0
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Cisco Visual Networking Survey AT&T Ehud Gelblum
304

2009 12 15

2010 HSPA 60-70%
3 /2 /HSPA 7.2 Mbps
300 MB
100%
80%
40%
2010
40%
60-70%
20%
#6
60%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%

75%
Ehud Gelblum
305

2009 12 15

/ LTE / +
306

2009 12 15
Starent Networks 5.5 /

2010
WiChorus 6.5
/ 2010E*
3G4G
* WiChorus
Starent WiChorus Ehud Gelblum
=
50%
%
60%
T-Mobile UKO2
UK
50%
40%
30%
20%
#6
50%
10%
0%
T-Mobile UK
O2
UK
Orange UK
Orange.co.uk
3UK
O2
Informatm.com
O2 O2 O2
Informa Telecoms & MediaUK Mobile Broadband Measurements
307

2009 12 15
DPI /
DPI / / /

/
DPI / /
DPI / / /
+ /
/ / /
/ /
DPI
3
Mbps

P2P
1Mbps
7
Mbps
512
Kbps

P2P
64Kbps
Arbor Networks DPI

LTE
308

2009 12 15
LTE 4G 3G
/ 2010/2011
1995 2010
100Mbps
HSPA
Evolution
22/44Mbps
HSDPA
UMB
100Mbps
14.4Mbps
10Mbps
LTE
100Mbps
7.2Mbps
3.6Mbps
EV-DO Rev.A
3.1Mbps
4G
EV-DO Rev.0
2.4Mbps
1Mbps

NTTdocomo
W-CDMA LTE
Softbank Mobile : W-CDMA LTE
KDDIau
CDMA2000 LTE
eMobile
W-CDMA LTE

:
W-CDMA
LTE
Orange
W-CDMA LTE
T-Mobile
W-CDMA LTE
O2
W-CDMA LTE

AT&T
W-CDMA LTE
Verizon
CDMA2000 LTE
W-CDMA
384kbps
CDMA2000 1x
144kbps
100kbps
cdmaOne
64kbps
10kbps
PDC
28.8kbps
PDC
9.6kbps
1995
2000
2005
2010
HSPA / LTE
/
3.5G + 4G 2009 2012
300M
250M
AT&T HSPA 3.6
AT&T HSPA 7.2
T-Mobile HSPA 7.2
150M
VZ EV-DO Rev. A
T-Mobile HSPA 21.1
#6
POP
200M
100M
AT&T LTE
VZ LTE
50M
0M
2009
1
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
309

2009 12 15
100%
GPRS
80%
60%
HSPA LTE
50%
WCDMA
HSPA
50%
40%
20%
0%
GPRS
EDGE 2.5G WCDMA 3G HSDPA 3.5G
LTE 4G
HSPA+
OvumTelstra2008
LTE = 3G24
HSPA
LTE
4x
5MHz
20MHz
1.5 x
16-QAM
64-QAM
4-
6-
4 x
MIMO
4x4 MIMO
MIMO
24
Hironori Tanaka
310

2009 12 15
LTE
2G
GSM / GPRS /
EDGE 200
KHz
3G
WCDMA / HSPA 5 MHz
4G
LTE 10-20 MHz
GSM
CDMA / IS-95
1.25 MHz
1X / EV-DO 2 x 1.25
MHz
CDMA
3G
Ehud Gelblum
1939 LTE
LTE
#6
GSMA
311

2009 12 15
LTE 2014
HSPA42Mb/s1000Mb/s
LTE / 2009-2014
1000
1000
Kbps
800
600
600
500
400
300
200
150
150
75
50
0
2009
2010
2011 2013
2014
OFDM
4x MIMO
20+20 MHz BW
100MHz BW
64/16 QAM DL / UL
MU-MIMO UL
64 QAM UL
8x MIMO
MU-MIMO DL
2x MIMO
OFDM = QAM = DL = UL = MIMO = MU =

BW = Ericsson
LTE WCDMA
=
PDC WCDMA LTE
PDC
WCDMA
LTE
LTE
WCDMA
2002
2010
Hironori Tanaka Kyoko Sano
312

2009 12 15
700MHz
700 MHz
850 MHz
2100 MHz
2500 MHz
2
3
Mi
Prec =
Psent =
freq =
dist =
#6
1900 MHz
5
Ehud Gelblum
313

2009 12 15
700MHz
/
1900 MHz
700 MHz
1900 MHz
700 MHz
1900 MHz
= 1
700 MHz
= 2-3
Ehud Gelblum
SE Bit/S/Hz
25
20
15
10
0
GSM
EDGE
WCDMA
HSDPA
Wi-Max
Wi-Fi
LTE

Ehud Gelblum
314

2009 12 15
LTE
LTE Verizon + AT&T 2010VZ

2011AT&T 700 MHz
800 MHzLTE

400 MHz 700 MHz
20097
MHz
LTE
At&t
Verizon
NTT
docomo
VOD UK +
Italy +
Germany
China
Mobile
700 MHz
20
32
--
--
--
800-900 MHz
25
25
58
80
48
1700-1900 MHz
34
21
30
52
70
2100 MHz
12
13
40
70
15

Ehud Gelblum
#6
315

2009 12 15
=1GB
/ / 50%
3 /2 /HSPA 21.1 Mbps
1 GB
100%
80%
60%
40%
2012
50%
50%
20%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
75%
1GB
2.5G 3G
316

2009 12 15
2.1 GHz
UMTS-900
2G
+ ASP

20012008
$3,000
$2,500
80%
60%
ASP
$2,000
$1,500
40%
#6
GPRS
100%
$1,000
20%
$500
$0
0%
GPRS
EDGE WCDMA HSDPA HSPA+

2.5G 3G 3.5G
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

WCDMA
GSM/GPRS/EDGE
CDMA
Dell OroTelstra 2008
317

2009 12 15
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
25
50
100
300
600
17
$2500
33
$5000
67
200
400
$10000 $30000 $60000
1000 Mbps 2
= $2500
$5000
2
$5000
2
$5000
Mbps

T1 1 T1 = 1.5 Mbps
1 T1 = $150
400 Mbps
= $400
3G 4G
3G HSPA 3.6
2
$800
2
$800
2
$800
2
$5000
2
$800
2
$5000
2
$800
$100000 $97000 $94090 $91267 $88529
HSPA 7.2 = 2
$25000 $24750 $24503 $24257 $24015
HSPA 21.1 =5
$80000 $77600 $75272 $73014 $70823
LTE = +10x
$85000 $83300 $81634 $80001 $78401
T1 OPEX
3G
HSPA 7.2 HSPA 3.6 25%
Simon Flannery
2010 AT&T
850 MHz
$1200 MM
+50%
HSPA 7.2
$1000 MM
+100%
$1200 MM
+50%
Wi-Fi
$100 MM
$1200 MM
$__MM
$1200 MM
592%
*
318

2009 12 15

2010 AT&T
T1
30%
30%
30%
*
AT&T + + HSPA 7.2
AT&T 2
2010 2
2 4 RAN
AT&T
AT&T 850 MHz 10 MHz
AT&T HSPA 7.2
RAN
#6
RAN 2010
2009850 MHz 10 MHz
3G 20 MHz RNC
75-80% 30
MHz 2010 AT&T
HSPA 7.2
319

2009 12 15
/ +
55%
+ HSPA+ 21.6Mbps7.2 Mbps50%
2010215 PB
200825 PB
GBP B
2.5B
2.0B
1.5B
14%
2007
2010
12.9%
12.4%
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.5
1.2
1.2
CH1: 08/09
CH1: 09/10
12%
3.0B
2008/2009
2009/2010
1.0B
12.1%
12.0%
11.2%
11.2%
10.5%
10%
8%
0.5B
0.0B
6%
FH1:07
FH2:07
FH1:08
FH2:08
FH1:09
FH2:09
FH1:10
+ +

Telenor + Tele2 2010LTE
T-Mobile UK + 3UK 1Q08
1Q09

+ Orange /
Telefnica O2 1Q09

Bell Canada + TELUS
+ SaskTel 3Q09

+ Telefnica O2 1Q09

+
Telefnica O2
1Q09

+ Telefonica O2 1Q09

+
Telefnica O2
1Q09

+ Orange 4Q07
+ Bharti
Intratel / Idea Cellular 1Q07

+ 4Q07
/
/ Informa ICT
320

2009 12 15
#6
Wi-Fi
321

2009 12 15
86%31%
/20082013
100%
80%
60%
14%
8%
20%
69%
40%
2.5
20%
95%
78%
31%
0%
2008
$189B
SMS Revenue
Data Revenue
Voice Revenue
5%
2008
2013E
6.1 PB / Voice Revenue
388.3 PB /
Data Traffic
Voice Traffic
SMS/
AT&T MobilityVerizon WirelessSprint NextelT-Mobile USA
Bell WirelessRogers Wireless
200879%201260~70%
20072012/
/
6%
10%
8%
14%
USA
Revenue Share
80%
8%
18%
8%
23%
8%
27%
31%
60%
40%
84%
79%
74%
69%
65%
100%
8%
61%
10%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
11%
13%
16%
18%
21%
79%
77%
74%
72%
70%
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
80%
W. Europe
Revenue Share
100%
20072012
//
60%
40%
82%
20%
20%
0%
0%
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
Voice Revenue
Data Revenue
SMS Revenue
2007
2008
Voice Revenue
Data Revenue
SMS Revenue
322

2009 12 15
20072012
0712
$130
$125
-4%
$120
$115
$110
-2%
$105
$100
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
Simon FlanneryNick Delfas
Wi-Fi
5.21Skype09241%093
Skype-to-Skype260
72%Skype30Skype57%
35%Skype
0.12SkypeWindows0.05SkypeiPhone
iTouch89%Skype
AT&T3GSkype0910
4500iPhone + iTouch 60%Wi-Fi Wi-Fi 31%3600
#6
Skype
2008Skype
$0.190
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.080
$0.060
$0.05
$0.021
Free
$0.00
Skype-to-Skype
SkypeOut
FCC CRMS091
323

2009 12 15
200121700/
042093
1Q04A
4Q04A
3Q05A
2Q06A
1Q07A
4Q07A
3Q08A
2Q09A
0%
500
-2%
1,000
-4%
1,500
-6%
2,000
-8%
2,500
-10%
+
3,000
000
-12%
0120931700
2008ILD
31%
20052008SkypeSkype
2005
2006
2007
2008
05-08
CAGR
12%
272
313
343
385
--
15%
10%
12%
ILD B
219
237
250
266
ILD %
81%
76%
73%
69%
--
ILD B
ILD %
Skype ILD B
ILD %
Skype ILD B
ILD %
Skype B
ILD Skype
53
76
93
119
19%
24%
27%
31%
--
44
22
29
45
62
72
89
17%
20%
21%
23%
--
37
16
23
14
21
31
3%
4%
6%
8%
--
81
49
50
--
36
49
73
--
38%
42%
42%
7%
6-8%
31%
19980%31%
25%
/ / 3
ILD
23%19980%
59%
Skype8%
20030%
Skype42%

Skype
Telegeography / PriMetrica
324

2009 12 15
Wi-FiiPhoneiTouch6%
A
40%
=Wi-Fi
35%Wi-Fi 90% 100%

= 40%
A
= 40%
X
= 30%Wi-Fi
= 50%

=
=6.0%
B
50%
/50%
30%Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi
30%
Wi-Fi
Nick Delfas
20072012
0712
$20
-2%
$15
10%
#6
$10
$5
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
325

2009 12 15
126750092
6
081092
$210B
$180B
$172B
$181B
$187B
MEA
$167B
$157B
$164B
$150B
$120B
$90B
$60B
$30B
$B
CQ1:08
CQ2:08
CQ3:08
CQ4:08
CQ1:09
CQ2:09
Informa WCDM.
108
326

2009 12 15
12/
108009223%
081092
$29B
$30B
$27B
$27B
MEA
$25B
$24B
$25B
$23B
$20B
$15B
$10B
$5B
$B
CQ1:08
CQ2:08
CQ3:08
CQ4:08
CQ1:09
CQ2:09
08288023%
Informa WCDM.
-
/
#6
327

2009 12 15
/
+
30
600
25
500
20
400
15
300
19985
10
200
100
AT&T
954034AT&T
0
12/95
9/96
6/97
3/98
12/98
9/99
AT&T
6/00
3/01
12/01
9/02
6/03
CTIAFCC
/
Internet
944002AOL
25
70
60
AOL
50
15
199610
40
30
10
20
/ /
20
5
10
0
9/94
3/95
9/95
3/96
9/96
3/97
AOL
9/97
3/98
9/98
3/99
9/99
3/00
9/00
3/01
//

328

2009 12 15
/
NTT Docomo3G
024091NTT Docomo3GFOMA3G
60
80
70
043
60
40
50
30
40
30
20
20
NTT docomo 3G
50
10
10
0
0
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/04
6/05
12/05
6/06
NTT docomo 3G
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08

NTT docomo
2/08
4/08
6/08
8/08
10/08
12/08
#6
082092Google
2/09
Vic GundotraGoogle.
329

2009 12 15
PeersKDDI
ARPU
031054
1,000
200311
KDDI
$75
800
$70
600
$65
400
$60
200
$55
$50
000
ARPU
$80
-200
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
KDDI au ARPU
NTT DoCoMo ARPU
Softbank ARPU
KDDI
NTT DoCoMo
Softbank
092
5%
5%42%P2P
40%
5%
30%
42%
20%
32%
22%
10%
15%
21%
22%
19%
13%
6% 8%
0%
P2P
P2PBitTorrent
eDonkeyGnutella
Allot Communications20092
330

2009 12 15
445
/
1GB
Nick Delfas
1
Virgin Media/
10 Mb/s
20 Mb/s
50 Mb/s
15 /
25 /
33 /
5 GB
10 GB
20001000
40002000
12
#6
CTIA
331

2009 12 15
1 Virgin Media

Virgin Media200MBbeta
091093Virgin
Media
091093Virgin
Media
3,200
3,626
3,646
3,735
3,770
3,563
3,730
3,502
9%
10%
10%
11%
12%
13%
8%
17%
17%
19%
21%
25%
30%
5%
74%
71%
68%
22%
64%
53%
800
12.77
12.70
12.50
12.29
12.27
CQ4:08
CQ1:09
12
11
29%
10
0
CQ1:08
CQ2:08
2MB
CQ3:08
2-10MB
CQ4:08
CQ1:09
10 MB
CQ2:09
CQ1:08
CQ3:09
CQ2:08
CQ3:08
CQ2:09
CQ3:09
20/50 MB
092Virgin Media2MB2-10MB093
834K
Virgin Media
KDDI

KDDI1K
$50
$40
$
000s
2,400
75%
13.26
13.12
13
36%
1,600
14
ARPU GBP
4,000
Double-Teigaku-SuperLight =
Double-Teigaku =
$30
$20
Double-Teigaku-Light =
$10
$0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
000s
Double-Teigaku-Super-Light
Double-Teigaku-Light
Double-Teigaku
100=1
332

2009 12 15
Verizon
5 GB
250 MB
$59.99 /
$39.99 /
153050
75 MB1 250 MB
500 MB
7-8
Verizon
BelliPhoneiPhone
0911iPhoneBell
Wi-FiiPhone
AT&TiPhone
C$0.03 / MB
C$95
C$75
$6 / MB
2 GB
C$55
1 GB
500 MB
100
50
#6
2 GB
C$45
300
50

400
50

500
50

BCE
333

2009 12 15
/
2013
CAGR2%
1%
/ -
20132%2008
15101750
09393%
200980020133200 netbooks
eReaders5%Verizon
400-500%
20136%
201315%
20081030
20131%
SIMSIM5%
netbookseReaders20092013
OvumVerizonSimon FlanneryNick Delfas
334

2009 12 15
-
20022015
6.7% '09-'15E CAGR

$236B
$225
2.5% '09-'15E CAGR
$200
$168B
$175
$175B $181B
$156B
$141B
$150
$115B
$125
-2.1% '09-'15E CAGR

$132B
$90B
$100
2015E
2014E
2013E
2012E
2011E
2010E
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
$50
2009E
$75
2002
$250
M2M
CTIA Simon Flannery
6.7%
2009
2015
CAGR
2.5%
2009
2015
CAGR

4G4G
0915CAGR20.1%
2015M2M97%
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2009CAGR2015CAGR3.1%
2011
30%16%0915CAGR2.0%
201560%
20134G
#6
2.1%
2009
2015
CAGR
20092015
CAGR6.1%
IP
Simon Flannery
335

2009 12 15
//
20022015EBITDA
$100
7.8% '09-'15E CAGR

$93B
EBITDA $B
$90
$80
3.0% '09-'15E CAGR
$70
$64B
$69B
$67B
$57B
$60
$52B
$50
$41B
$40
-2.1% '09-'15E CAGR

$48B
$29B
$30
$20
$10
2015E
2014E
2013E
2012E
2011E
2010E
2009E
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
$0
CTIA Simon Flannery
20022015
20%
1%
15%
1% 3%
4%
16%
14% 13%
6% 6%
5%
2015E
2014E
2013E
2012E
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-5%
2%
-2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -1%
2011E
0%
0%
6% 6% 6% 5%
4% 4%
2010E
6%
5% 5%
2009E
7%
2002
10%
Simon Flannery
336

2009 12 15
ARPU ARPUARPU
$70
051092ARPU
$60
$50
$50
$50
$49
$47
$46
$46
$45
$44
$43
$43
$43
$41
$39
$40
$39
$39
$37
$36
$36
$30
$20
$10
$3
$4
$5
$6
$5
$8
$8
$7
$6
$9
$10
$10
$11
$12
$12
$13
$13
$14
$0
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
ARPU
1Q07
3Q07
ARPU
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
ARPU
Simon Flannery
2011ARPU
$60
20022015ARPU
$52 $53
$54
$51
2
$50
$50
4
$40
$50 $50 $49

5
7
9
3
4
4
$49 $50
$50 $50
$50
11
13
17
19
20
29
27
27
$30
52
52
51
$20
48
44
42
39
36
34
32
16
30
#6
$49
$10
$0
2002
2004
2006
ARPU
2008
2010E
ARPU
2012E
2014E
ARPU
Simon Flannery
337

2009 12 15
2008 0913CAGR13%
CAGR2.6%
200
20022015
160
$151
$156
$162 $168
$181
$175 $178
$172
$141
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$127
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120
$104
23
32
41
50
60
68
75
81
85
97
96
15
$90
$78
80
40
112
100 107
118 118 115
2004
2006
2008
88
77
112 108 105

100
0
2002
2010E
2012E
2014E
Simon Flannery
20022015
$100
$85
$81
$80
$75
$B
$68
$60
$60
$50
$41
$40
$32
37
$23
$15
$20
$1
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3
$0
2002
2004
54
67
71
14
14
29
21
14
$9
6
46
61
10
6
2006
11
2008
12
13
2010E
14
14
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14
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Simon Flannery
338

2009 12 15
7500
18003G
1.03
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5700
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8800
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$200
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$173B
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$147B
$146B
$146B
$145B
$140
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$180
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$100
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Nick Delfas
339

2009 12 15
- 200808
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$160
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$15
$15
$120
$20
$15
$23
$14
$27
$30
$14
$13
$80
$125
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$105
16%
-4%
-4%
$102
$40
$0
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
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Nick Delfas
EBITDA//
20072015EBITDA
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$57B
0915CAGR 0.8%
$58B
$55B
$53B
$55
$52B
$51B
$50B
$49B
$50
$49B
$48B
0915CAGR 1.5%
$45
$40
0915CAGR 5.0%
$39B
$35
$30
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
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EBITDA
Company dataNick Delfas
340

2009 12 15
0915
CAGR
0.8%
LTE4G
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2009 12 15
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2009 12 15
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343

2009 12 15

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25
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91
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27
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17
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344

2009 12 15
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2005
2006
2007
2008
5,000
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2,500
0%
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3G
Skype
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2003
10%
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345

2009 12 15
ChangWaveiPhoneAT&T
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071
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091
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AT&T USB
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346

2009 12 15
iPhoneAT&TARPU
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iPhone
ARPU iPhone$30 -$45

ARPU$95 ARPU
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$51ARPU
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0.11
/
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iPhone

iPhone
3G
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#6
-- Tom AlexanderOrangeCEO0710
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159,000
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The Telegraph09210091
347

2009 12 15
iPhoneAT&T
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Simon Flannery
iPhoneAT&TVerizon
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11961% 722009
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Simon Flannery
348

2009 12 15
iPhoneAT&TVerizon
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16
072093AT&TiPhone
19% 20%
12
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10%
8%
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4
4%
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2Q08
4Q08
iPHONE 000s
iPHONE
2Q09
106
iPhone 000
15%
4,000
iPhone as % of Postpaid Base
AT&TiPhone
17%
3,200
3,000
2,400
2,315
2,000
2,400
1,900
1,600
1,440
1,119
1,000
688
000
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
iPhone 000s
Simon Flannery
#6
349

2009 12 15
1) LTE
2)
3)
20012011
Worldwide Wireless Equipment Average Selling Prices 2001 2011E
$2,500
$2,000
ASP
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2001
2003
2005
WCDMA
2007
GSM/GPRS/EDGE
2009e
2011e
CDMA
DelloroPatrick Standaert
ASP0913
20012013
$50
LTE
$40
WiMAX
$30
WCDMA
$20
CDMA
TDMA
$10
GSM/GPRS/E
DGE
$0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

WCDMAHSPAWiMAXFixed WiMAX802.16d
Delloro
350

2009 12 15
1) 2G3G4GIP
3)
2)
4)
100
80
530%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
40
20
-2.5%
-5.0%
Patrick Standaert
800
11%
20062008-
$250
$21
$19
$18
$200
$48
$54
$60
-
800
11%
$150
$100
$146
$152
$156
#6
$B
60
$50
$0
2006
2007
2008E
EricssonE&Y2007
351

2009 12 15
/DPI
/DPI

IP

//

/

P2P
DragonWave
Ehud Gelblum
//3G
352

2009 12 15
//3G
093
093
3G
698
508
143
47
73%
21%
7%
5
1.7
0.5
2.4
37%
10%
53%
Bharti
Reliance
Essar
BSNL
Idea Cellular
Tata Teleservices
Aircel
452
111
84
83
53
51
35
26
24%
19%
18%
12%
11%
8%
6%
--------
--------
--------
Verizon
AT&T
Sprint / Nextel
T-Mobile USA
279
89
82
47
33
32%
29%
17%
12%
112
55
41
13
3
49%
36%
11%
2%
Mobile TeleSystems
VimpelCom
MegaFon
Tele2
205
69
51
48
13
33%
25%
24%
6%
7
2.8
2.7
0.7
--
39%
39%
10%
--
--
Vivo
Claro
TIM Brasil
Telemar PCS
168
49
42
40
28
29%
25%
24%
17%
7
2
3
1
1
35%
42%
13%
8%
Telkomsel
Indosat
Excelcomindo
3 Indonesia
148
72
29
27
7
49%
19%
18%
5%
14
8
3
1
1
57%
21%
6%
6%
30300032
Informa WCIS
//3G
093
093
3G
110
55
31
21
50%
28%
19%
98
51
24
20
53%
25%
21%
T-Mobile
D2
E-Plus
O2
103
39
31
17
15
38%
31%
17%
15%
22
6
10
2
5
27%
43%
8%
23%
Viettel
MobiFone
VinaPhone
97
46
25
20
47%
25%
20%
<1
----
----
----
PMCL
Telenor
PTML
Warid Telecom
China Mobile
96
30
22
19
18
7
31%
22%
20%
19%
7%
------
------
------
Telecom Italia
Italia
Wind
3 Italia
82
32
26
18
6
39%
32%
22%
7%
28
7
11
3
6
26%
41%
11%
22%
Radiomovil Dipsa
Telefonica Moviles
Lusacell
Nextel
81
58
17
3
3
72%
20%
4%
4%
2
0.7
0.1
0.7
--
48%
4%
48%
--
--
#6
NTT docomo
KDDI
Softbank
30300032
Informa WCIS
353

2009 12 15
//3G
093
093
3G
O2
T-Mobile
Orange
3 UK
77
22
17
17
17
5
28%
22%
22%
22%
6%
24
5
2
7
5
5
22%
8%
30%
20%
20%
Smart Communications
Global Telecom
Digitel Mobile
72
39
23
10
54%
32%
13%
2
2
0.5
--
78%
22%
--
--
MTN Nigeria
Globacom
Zain Nigeria
69
29
16
15
42%
24%
22%
1
0.6
0.3
--
66%
34%
--
--
AIS
DTAC
True Move
64
28
19
15
44%
30%
24%
<1
----
----
----
Turkcell
AVEA
64
36
16
12
56%
25%
19%
----
----
----
TCI
MTN Irancell
62
35
21
56%
33%
---
---
---
Orange
SFR
Bouygues
59
27
21
10
47%
36%
17%
16
7
8
1
44%
50%
6%
3030003
2 Informa WCIS
//3G
093
093
3G
Telefnica Mviles
Espana
Orange
54
24
16
12
45%
30%
23%
22
8
8
5
38%
35%
21%
ECMS
Egypt
Etisalat Misr
52
23
22
6
45%
43%
12%
3
0.7
1.5
1
22%
48%
30%
GrameenPhone
Orascom
Axiata
51
22
12
11
43%
24%
22%
----
----
----
Kyivstar
MTS Ukraine
Astelit
51
22
18
8
44%
35%
15%
<1
----
----
----
Vodacom
MTN
Cell C
50
26
16
8
51%
33%
15%
6
3
2
--
59%
41%
--
--
SK Telecom
KTF
LG Telecom
48
24
15
9
50%
31%
18%
----
35
20
13
2
57%
38%
5%
3030003
2 Informa WCIS
354

2009 12 15
//3G
093
093
3G
AMX
Telefnica Mviles
Telecom Personal
47
17
15
14
35%
33%
30%
<1
0.2
0.3
0.2
29%
40%
32%
Polkomtel
Orange
Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa
P4
44
14
14
13
3
32%
31%
30%
6%
12
2
5
2
3
17%
43%
18%
23%
Comcel
Telefnica Mviles
Colombia Movil
40
27
9
4
69%
22%
9%
<1
0.4
0.2
0.2
55%
23%
22%
Saudi Telecom Company

Etihad Etisalat
SMTC
35
18
13
4
51%
36%
12%
5
1
3
1
17%
64%
20%
Movilnet
Telcel
Corporacin Digitel
30
13
11
7
43%
35%
22%
1
0.9
0.3
0.1
73%
23%
5%
3030003
2 Informa WCIS
#6
355

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KDDI NTT docomo

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MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

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Ovum Katy HubertyiPhone

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2008-2013 2/09 Ovum Katy Huberty.

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iPhone 3G+ &

Orange AUPU 1108 GfK CQ1:08

= ~12 bits / CQ2:07.

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NTT docomo 54%

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MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

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31104000 31104000 31104000 31104000 31104000 31104000

-T1s 6 Mbps/ 2013

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3 / 2 / HSPA 3.6 Mbps

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Illustration per France Telecom.

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Cisco 2008 2013.

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Raw Network Capacity Can Be Added in a Variety of Ways

WiChorus 3GPP.org WiMax.org Ehud Gelblum

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MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

EDGE 2.5G WCDMA 3G HSDPA 3.5G

Ovum Telstra Nokia Siemens Networks 2008.

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YankeeADC Nokia Siemens via 3G Americas

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ATT Verizon Qwest Comcast

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Wi-Fi 802.11n 20099IEEE 802.11n 2008 / 2009

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Wi-F 2013 80%Wi-Fi

ABI Research Informa

WeFi JiWire ITU IDC Impress R&D

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Wi-Fi AdMobIP AdMob 1/09

7000 AT&T Wi-Fi

2Wi-Fi Google Maps.

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iPhone 3.0 OS Wi-Fi iPhone Wi-Fi

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