Shantanu Shenai and Ajay Venkat Present:

THE ARAB OBSERVER

January 2012 Analysis Issue Middle East Monthly

This Month: Analyzing Recent Events in Syria, Libya, and Iran

MIDDLE EAST LOOK TO STABILIZE
SYRIAN CRISIS CONTINUES TO ESCALATE

The Arab Observer gives you a short summary and analyses major political and religious happenings in the Middle East.

Syria is nowhere close to solving their problems. With military forces attacking citizens, the president denying responsibility on the situation, and a huge civil war just around the corner, things do look like they are getting worse.
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Libyans protesting without a cause in the capital, Tripoli

LIBYA STRUGGLE TO TRANSITION TO POSTGADDAFI PHASE

Following the death of dictator Colonel Muammar Gadda, Libya has struggled to maintain control and order through the nation. Violence continues despite the end to the dictators reign, and ghting between former rebel groups causes unrest.
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President Al-Assads speech at Damascus

Protests against Al-Assad

IRANS NUCLEAR PROBLEMS RISE

There has been a lot of talk of how Iran are trying to get themselves nuclear material. With the whole world against this, it hasnt been easy. With Iranian nuclear scientists dying through bomb blasts etc, there is a suspicion that the other countries opposing the nuclear activity are trying to send a message.
Continued on Page 4

Irans Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

The Arab Observer, United World College of South East Asia East Campus, 1 Tampines Street 73, Singapore

THE ARAB OBSERVER - SYRIA!

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Syrian Crisis continues to escalate

ARAB LEAGUE TO INCREASE NUMBER OF OBSERVERS IN SYRIA

Arab League ofcials have decided on Sunday, 9th January 2012 to strengthen their forces on their mission in Syria, where thousands have been killed by security forces for no apparent reason. With the UN on their side, the Arab League have been strengthened considerably, and they plan on putting it to use. The Syrian deaths are continuing despite international pressure to put an end to this violent civil unrest. The Arab League is an organization of Arab states in based in different regions: North and North-East Africa, and Southwest Asia, popularly known as the Middle East. The main goal of the league is to form a unity between all the Arab states, similar to that of European Countries. They also focus on coordinating collaboration between them, to safeguard their independence and sovereignty, and to consider in a general way the affairs and interests of the Arab countries.
PRESIDENT AL-ASSAD- THERE IS NO ORDER TO SHOOT CIVILIANS

Al-Assad also said international powers were trying to destroy Syria, and vowed to crush "terrorists" with an "iron st". The reaction to this speech has not been what Al-Assad expected, with quite a few people, including the US government, have said that it is just a statement to get himself out of trouble. Even the United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has gone on to say that AlAssads speech was Arab League ofcials monitor the situation cynical, and that instead of taking responsibility Al-Assad only made "excuses, blaming foreign countries and Syria is nowhere their conspiracies.
SYRIAN REBEL ARMY AND OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTY JOIN FORCES

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has denied any order to shoot protesters, and is open to any help from the Arab League ofcials. This uprising has been going on for the past 10 months, and military ofcials have shot over a thousand of these protestors. "We do not close the door for solutions or suggestions, and we do not close any door for any Arab i n i ti ati ve, a s th ey res p ec t Sy r i a n sovereignty and the freedom of our decision and care about the unity of our nation, President Al-Assad disclosed in a speech made at Damascus University and broadcasted on state TV.

An opposite Syrian political party, demanding the end of President Bashar Al-Assad political reign, has recently announced on Friday that they have begun coordinating with the Free Syria Army, a rebel army group against Al-Assads governmental party. Now, people are saying that due to the announcement by the Syria National Council of the merge, and the increase in frequency of protests to support the anti-governmental movement, there has been a shift in the balance. This is also said to be an effort to solidify coordination between groups that say they have been victimized targets of a brutal crackdown of non-supporters by AlAssads forces.

close to solving their problems. With military forces attacking citizens, the president denying responsibility on the situation, and a huge civil war just around the corner, things do look like they are getting worse.

The Arab Observer, United World College of South East Asia East Campus, 1 Tampines Street 73, Singapore

THE ARAB OBSERVER - LIBYA!

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Violence breaks out during a protest in Libya

Abdurrahim el-Keib

WAR BREAKS OUT BETWEEN LIBYAN REBELS

Violence has broken out between former rebels of Misrata and capital city Tripoli. The cause for the ghting according to Libyan colonel Walib Shoaib is a Misratan man arrested by Tripoli rebels for suspect thievery. The Misratan group in which the man belonged attempted to free him, but they failed. As a result, they were also arrested. Eventually, the Miratans were freed, but the man who was captured is still held by Tripoli rebels. Another issue that Libya faces is anger against those who supported or supplied Gadda. Towns or people who had done so are now being punished by rebels. One such town is Tawergha. Gadda had used Tawergha as a temporary base for his troops while they attacked Misrata. The Miratan rebels hit back. The town of 30,000 was destroyed, while its people were driven out. Families of Tawergha are now living in camps across the country.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES RISE RAPIDLY

under 30 years old. That is why it is very important for youths to resume studying and working.
LIBYA FORM INTERIM GOVERNMENT

Libya has formed a new government that is led by interim president Abdurrahim elKeib. The cabinet is being picked from all areas and major cities of Libya. This has been done so that each city will have somebody representing them in different positions of the cabinet. This interim government is tasked to stabilize Libya politically and economically. After this they will draft a constitution for the country. Then, the government must organize a democratic election, the rst one in Libyas recent history. Libya looks to become a stable nation in a few years if all goes well.
REBELS PROTESTING WITHOUT A REASON

As the nation begins to stabilize, Libya faces a new challenge of unemployment. Many of the Libyan rebels were young people who had stopped studying to help their country ght Gaddas rule. As a result, most young people now are jobless, and spend their time protecting Libya. In Tripoli, two out of every three people are

Protesters continue to linger in Tripoli despite the death of Gadda. Common people are irritated by them, and also former rebels who still patrol the roads with rearms. There have been instances of attacks and gunre due to these rogue ghters. The city has had to issue several lockdowns because of this, much to the inconvenience of the people. Tripoli is ne with these protesters in the city, but it is their weapons that the people have a problem against.

Following the death of dictator Colonel Muammar Gadda, Libya has struggled to maintain control and order through the nation. Violence continues despite the end to the dictators reign, and ghting between former rebel groups causes unrest.

The Arab Observer, United World College of South East Asia East Campus, 1 Tampines Street 73, Singapore

THE ARAB OBSERVER - IRAN!

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Irans nuclear problems rise

WHO IS KILLING THE IRANIAN SCIENTISTS?

A lot of people have been asking this question: Who is killing the nuclear scientists in Iran? On Wednesday, a bomb blast claimed the life of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who was a scientist at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. This has also been conrmed by Iranian ofcials. Mr Roshan has been the 3rd nuclear scientist to be mysteriously killed by bomb blasts in the past 2 years. In this period of time, a 4th nuclear scientist has also survived an assassination attempt. In return, Iranian ofcials have gone off the fence and blamed Israel and the United States of America. In return, "I want to categorically deny any United States involvement in any kind of act of violence inside Iran," United States of Americas Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denied on Wednesday. "We believe there has to be an understanding between Iran, its neighbors and the international community that nds a way forward for it to end its provocative behavior, end its search for nuclear weapons and rejoin the international community and be a productive member of it, she informed.
PROSPECTS OF IRAN ENTERING WAR WITH THE WEST

end, these tensions will cause something similar to) a game of chicken fraught with unintended consequences. Most denitely, these views show a stark difference in the opinions coming from Iran and its allies, with Mojataba Sedehgian, from the Tehran Times, writing that the West is looking for an excuse to start another war in the region because the United States is concerned about the massive inuence Iran Mostafa Ahmadi Roshans blown up car has gained over the past few years. With differing opinions, this problem just elevates all the There has been a time.
ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER DENIES INVOLVEMENT

Just when people thought the tension between Iran and the West could not increase, the hot kettle has overowed. Lots of people, including writers, have indicated that the ongoing war-of-words and accusations may lead to military action. This was also mentioned by Linda Heard, from the Gulf News in Dubai. She said, (While a) full scale military face off between Washington, London, Tel Aviv and Tehran is quite the unthinkable........ history tells us that the unthinkable does take place when muscle-exing is taken to an extreme. (In the

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said that a decision to strike Irans nuclear problem was very far off . While speaking to Israeli Army Radio, Minister Barak did not give any prediction regarding when Iran may create a weapon, saying I dont know, its a long way off. Some will say a few years, some will so six months. It really doesnt matter. After being pressed on whether forceful decisions will have to be taken in the upcoming weeks or months, he mentioned, I wouldnt want to make any estimates. Its not urgent. Minister Baraks comments have come a day before American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey visits Israel to take about regional security, days after Israel and the US announced that they would be postponing a large-scale joint missile defense drill dubbed the Austere Challenge 12.

lot of talk of how Iran are trying to get themselves nuclear material. With the whole world against this, it hasnt been easy. With Iranian nuclear scientists dying through bomb blasts etc, there is a suspicion that the other countries opposing the nuclear activity are trying to send a message.

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THE ARAB OBSERVER - ANALYSIS!

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Is the situation in the Middle East really improving?

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ARAB CRISIS; GOING FURTHER THAN THE FACTS
SYRIA ON THE VERGE OF A CIVIL WAR

Syria is suffering heavily from thousands of deaths. Their nation is in pandemonium as they attempt to free their country from the rule of Bashar al-Assad. This had to happen to the Arabian nations, with many dictators among them. President alAssads reaction to these protests is what has been disappointing. Despite over ve thousand deaths in Syria, the president refuses to claim responsibility for their lives. He has been saying that the protests are threatening Syrias safety and economy. If these protests continue, and thus the deaths on both Assads and the rebels side, things could get serious. Are we actually looking at a repetition of what happened in Libya? If the ghting doesnt end soon, or the president doesnt step down, the situation could break out

into a full-scale civil war. We just have to hope that Syria can learn from Libya, and not repeat the same mistakes.
LIBYAN SITUATION UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE SOON

Libyas security, life can nally return to normal.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN IRAN?

Libyas main issue has been resolved. Colonel Gadda has died, and the worst is behind them. Or is it? Libya face a new string of problems that were bound to come. Rebels who dont know what to do now that their enemy has perished. Unemployed people who struggle to adapt back to regular lives. Clashes between former protesters. Are things really getting better? This question will only be answered with time. Where they will go from here mostly depend on the governments actions. If they can successfully organize a fair democratic election, and stabilize

The situation in Iran remains the most confusing of all of the Middle Easts issues. Iran have bought nuclear material, but what will they do with it? Whatever the reason may be, nuclear power is dangerous, and Iran has a very violent history. If Iran created nuclear material, just imagine the devastation that it could cause. Another very disturbing thing is the deaths of the nuclear scientists, and the fact that no one has claimed responsibility. Who are these mysterious killers? Opposers in the nation, or in other nations who dont like Irans purchases? Right now, there is nothing that anybody can do about this. We just have to trust that Iran can make the correct decision.

Snippet of Arab League Emblem

Gadda gone for better or worse?

The Arab Observer, United World College of South East Asia East Campus, 1 Tampines Street 73, Singapore