2011 11 20

2012

S1060511010013
0755-22627021
heqingming001@pingan.com.cn

2012

2012 GDP GDP 8.5%

GDP 14%

M2 13-14% 7.5-8
13.8 10 %11

GDP

18-20%

16-17%

12-15%

GDP

CPI 3.5-4%

CPI 4.5-5%
3-4%

12 1-2 PPI

2012

2012
2011 2011
+

1-2

3-6 CPI

12

2012 ........................................ 5
2012 ...................................... 5
1.1 .......................5
1.2 ..................................................7
1.3 ......................................................9
............................ 11
2.1
..........................................................................................................................................11
2.2 .....................................12
2.3 .....................................12
2012 10%-13% ...................................... 13
3.1 ..........................................................................13
3.2 .........................................14
CPI3.5-4% ......................... 16
4.1 2012 ........16
4.2 1-2 ...........................17
2011 ............................ 21
5.1 11 .........................................................................................21
5.2 ............................21

2 / 22

1 2012 ....................................................................................5
2 ...................................................................................6
3 ......................................................6
4 ............................................6
5 .........................................................................7
6 ...........7
7 .............................7
8 M2 ..................................................................8
9 ...............8
10 ........................................................9
11 ....................9
12 2007 ..........................10
17 ..................................................................................................13
18 ................................13
19 ..................................................13
20 11 1-10 ......................................................................14
21 10 .............................................................14
22 .......................................................................................14
23 .......................................................................................14
24 ...................................................................................14
25 ...........15
26 2010 .............15
27 35%
% ..................................................................................................................................16
28 2012 CPI ................................................................................................17
29 2012 1 ...............................................................................17
30 PPI ...........................................................17
31 .................................................................................18
32 ...........................................................18
33 2012 GDP
................................................................................................................................................18
34 3 .....................................................18
35 .......................................................................................19
36 .........................................................................................................19
37 2012 1-2 GDP ...............................................19

3 / 22

38 ............................................................................20
39 ..............................................................................20
40 2-3 ..........................................................................20

4 / 22

2012
1

2
3
2012
4

1 2012

2011 Q1-Q3

2011

2012

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

320692

465000

531000

111085.2

234967.5

368407.8

531000

GDP

16.8%

14. 2%

15.3%

14.9%

14.8%

14.2%

GDP def alt or

107

104. 9

106.2

105.8

105.4

104.9

9.30%

8. 65%

8.58%

8.62%

8.90%

8.65%

16.09%

16.60%

16.30%

16.10%

81.95

83.20

5.2%

4.6%

4.0%

3.5%

GDP (

GDP

9.40%

212273

170608

300600

360000

24.51%

19. 76%

16.37%

14. 17%

233000

271000

21.55%

16. 30%

13.60%

10. 90%

14.2%

14.0%

13% -14%

17.0%

18.85%

16% -17%

11.10%

10. 60%

22.89%

20. 00%

14.85%

14. 40%

M2

13.0%

12.5%-13.5%

13% -14%

56800

72000-75000

75000-80000

25.4%

24.0%

20% -22%

23.6%

22.0%

12. 0% -15. 0%

1500

1000

78.79

CP I

5.7%

5.0%-5.50%

3. 5% -4. 0%

CEIC

2012
2012

1.1
2010

5 / 22

BOT

2010
20%

2-3

2012

60
50
40
30
20
10

201106

201010

201002

200906

200810

200802

200706

200610

200602

200506

200410

200402

200306

200210

200202

200106

200010

200002

199906

199810

199802

199706

199610

199602

CEIC

CEIC

CEIC

6 / 22

CEIC

CEIC

CEIC

1.2
2012 2011

2004 25% 2007

30% 7 25%

2005

7 / 22

M2
2005 1
0.73 2008 1 0.88
12 M2 14% 20%

8 M2
35

M2

60
50

30

40
25
30
20
20
15

10
0

199602
199611
199708
199805
199902
199911
200008
200105
200202
200211
200308
200405
200502
200511
200608
200705
200802
200811
200908
201005
201102

10

CEIC

2011
2009 5.4% 7

2012 10%

CEIC

8 / 22

1.3

10

CEIC

11

9 / 22

CEIC

2008

12 2007

CEIC
GDP1990GDP

13

CEIC

10 / 22

14

CEIC

3.2
2011 2012
18% 18-20%
;

2011 2012

2011 2012 16%-17%

2.1

11 / 22

15

CEIC

2.2
2009
2010 1
2011

16 1
8,000

1.2

7,000

6,000

1.0
0.8

5,000

4,000

0.6

3,000

2011-06

2010-06

2009-06

2008-06

2007-06

2006-06

2005-06

2004-06

2003-06

2002-06

2011-06

2010-12

2010-06

2009-12

2009-06

2008-12

2008-06

2007-12

2007-06

2006-12

2006-06

2005-12

2005-06

2004-12

2004-06

2003-12

2003-06

2002-12

2002-06

0.0
2001-12

0.2

0
2001-06

1,000

2001-06

0.4

2,000

CEIC

2.3
10 26

12 / 22

2012 10%-13%
3.1
2012
17

17

CEIC

12
1112

18

15

10

19

60

20

10

50
40

5
0

2
5

10

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

201207

201102

200910

200805

200701

200508

200212

200404

1996

30

200107

1995

20

200003

1994

0
1

199810

1993

10

199706

CEIC

199601

15

30

CEIC

2011 1-10
50% 13

13 / 22

20 111-10

21.10%

50.90%
19.00%

9%

CEIC

12
12 11
6% 12
12 10%-13% 1000

21 10

60%

22

GDP

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%

50%
40%

30%

20%
10%

0%
10%

20%
30%

GDP

80%

4
60%

3
2

40%

GDP

201211

24

201201

23

201103

CEIC

201005

200907

200809

200711

200702

200604

200506

200408

200310

200212

200203

200105

200007

199909

199811

199801

199703

199605

2011-09

2010-11

2010-01

2009-03

2008-05

2007-08

2006-10

2005-12

2005-02

2004-04

2003-06

2002-08

2001-10

2001-01

2000-03

1999-05

1998-07

1997-09

1996-11

1996-01

CEIC

100%
80%

60%

40%

20%

20%
2

0%

0%

20%

4
40%

40%

60%

201211

201201

201103

201005

200907

200809

200711

200702

200604

200506

200408

200310

200212

200203

200105

200007

199909

199811

199801

199703

199605

201211

201103

201201

200907

201005

200711

200809

200604

200702

200408

200506

200212

200310

200105

200203

199909

200007

199801

199811

199605

199703

CEIC

20%

CEIC

3.2
2012 2008

14 / 22

2008

2004
40%

2008

25

CEIC

26 2010

2010 -2011 10
2001 -2009 0.82

0.33

CEIC

15 / 22

27 35%
%

2004

25.0

3.7

24.7

19.9

9.3

5.5

1.3

1.1

2005

27.1

4.3

23.3

9.5

9.6

5.1

1.

1.1

2006

28.2

4.5

22.9

19.9

8.8

5.0

1.1

1.2

2007

30.2

4.5

24.3

18.8

7.7

4.9

1.0

1.2

2008

31.3

4.7

23.8

18.8

7.1

4.9

0.9

1.5

2009

30.3

4.2

22.2

21.2

6.9

5.0

1.0

1.7

2010

30.9

4.0

23.8

20.7

6.0

4.6

1.0

1.6

2011-3Q

34.4

3.6

25.5

16.9

4.7

4.6

1.2

2.3

CEIC

CPI3.5-4%
2011

2012 CPI 3.5-4%

4% 4 3%
CPI 2.78% 3%PPI 1%

2012

12

2012

4.1 2012

CPIPPI CPI PPI 12 4

12 11 CPI
PPI
2122 12 CPI PPI 2012
1 2012 3-4
PPI 4

16 / 22

28 2012CPI
CPI

29 20121
12CPI

PPI

PPI

1
1

9 10 11 12

CEIC

9 10 11 12

CEIC

30 PPI
CRB

PPI
15%

120%
90%

10%

60%
5%
30%
0%
0%
5%

30%

10%

199901
199908
200003
200010
200105
200112
200207
200302
200309
200404
200411
200506
200601
200608
200703
200710
200805
200812
200907
201002
201009
201104

60%

CEIC

4.2 1-2

2008
2012 2
2012
20121.5%302.2%
2012
0912-3.5%30-1.2%

17 / 22

31

32

GDP

G7GDP

12

2.0%

0.0%

09
2.0%

4.0%

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

CEIC

6.0%

1980

1992

CEIC

2012
2012 2012
2011 26

33 2012GDP

1.2%

1.1%

1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.7%
2011

2012

2013

CEIC

34 3
40

PMI
GDP

GDP
9
20

30

15
10

20

5
10
0
0

10

10

20

15

201101
200905
200710
200602
200406
200210
200103
199907
199711
199604
199408
199212
199105
198909
198801
198605
198410
198302
198106
197910
197803
197607
197411
197304
197108
196912
CEIC

18 / 22

35

60

36

PMI

PMI

GDP

GDP

GDP

GDP
4.00%

110.00
4

54

2.00%

102.00

0.00%

48

94.00

2.00%

86.00

4.00%

78.00

70.00

0
42

6.00%

36
30

8.00%
10.00%

2011-08

2010-10

2009-12

2009-02

2008-04

2007-06

2006-08

2005-10

2005-01

2004-03

2003-05

2002-07

2001-09

2000-11

2000-01

2011-10

2011-03

2010-08

2010-02

2009-07

2009-01

2008-06

2007-12

2007-05

2006-10

2006-04

2005-09

2005-03

2004-08

2004-01

CEIC

CEIC

2012

2012 GDP 8.5%-9.0%1-2

37 20121-2GDP
16
14
12
10
8

201212

201203

201106

201009

200912

200903

200806

200709

200612

200603

200506

200409

200312

200303

200206

200109

200012

200003

CEIC

2012

2012
2012 1-2
2011 -2012
2011 2-3
GDP M2/GDP

19 / 22

38

39

25.0%

30.0%

20.0%

25.0%

/GDP

1.1

35.0%

1.0

15.0%

20.0%

0.9

10.0%
15.0%
5.0%

10.0%

201112

201104

201008

200912

200904

200808

200712

200704

200608

200512

200504

200408

200312

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

CEIC

2000

200304

0.7
1999

200208

0.8

1998

200112

5.0%
200104

0.0%
200008

0.0%

199912

5.0%

CEIC

2011 -2012

QE QE ;

QE

75%

2-3
2-3 33

40 2-3

120

110
100
90
80

201203

201109

201103

201009

201003

200909

200903

200809

200803

200709

200703

200609

200603

200509

200503

200409

200403

200309

200303

200209

200203

200109

200103

70

CEIC

57.6%

20 / 22

2011
2012

11

5.1 11
2012CPI3.5-4%5%
43%2
2012
13%
2011
11-2

CPI

2012

5.2
1-2

12

2012

2012A20112011

21 / 22


:
6 300 20%

6 300 10% 20%

6 300 10%

6 300 10%

:
6 300 10%

6 300 5% 10%

6 300 5%

6 300 5%

2011

8
518048
4008866338
(0755) 8244 9257 [DOCID]101105280001 [/DOCID]