Post-election reflection: Cameroons 2011 Presidential elections

Written by Emil Bischoff (1) Wednesday, 02 November 2011

Cameroons incumbent President, Paul Biya, won a resounding victory in the countrys Presidential election held on 9 October 2011. Biyas 77.9%(2) of the vote confirmed most analysts predictions that a divided opposition would not defeat the aging President. Prior to the release of the results, opposition parties, foremost among them the Social Democratic Front (SDF), had asked the countrys Supreme Court to annul the vote citing numerous incidents of electoral fraud. This petition was handed to the court despite international election observers expressing general satisfaction with the poll. Voter apathy was a serious concern in the poll with only a fraction of the registered voters turning out to cast their ballot. This has been ascribed to the feeling of many Cameroonians that the country is simply going through the motions, with the election outcome already decided.(3) This paper reflects on the conduct of the October 2011 Presidential election in Cameroon as well as the next seven years of Paul Biyas rule.

In the footsteps of his predecessor: The making of Paul Biyas managed democracy in Cameroon
Paul Biya, then Prime Minister of Cameroon, ascended to the countrys top office when long serving President, Ahmadou Ahidjo, stepped down owing to poor health.(4) Biya was an unlikely candidate for the position of Prime Minister at the time, as he is a native of the predominantly Christian South, which is believed to have suffered from Ahidjos pro-Muslim approach to appointments to government positions. Although Ahidjos reason for choosing Biya remains unclear, a rift developed between the two men and Ahidjo was exiled to France. Upon assuming office, Biya set about replacing his predecessors northern Muslim choices with their southern Christian counterparts. One such move met with severe consequences in 1984, as the replacement of Muslim Palace Guards led to an abortive coup against Biya. The coup was widely considered as being orchestrated by Ahidjo. Like his predecessor, Biyas rule became more and more authoritarian under the guise of multiparty democracy. Multiparty elections were introduced in 1992, but opposition groups boycotted the 1997 elections, citing irregularities in the electoral process. Biyas win in the 2004 Presidential elections also lacked credibility in key areas, according to observers.(5) Having been in power for almost three decades, Biya has not seen it fit to relinquish his grip on the Government. Indeed the state bureaucracy has seemingly fused with the Government leading to institutionalised corruption. In 2008, Paul Biya used the overwhelming majority his party enjoys in Parliament to abolish the two-term limit that the Constitution placed on the Presidency.(6) This is seen by many as an attempt to retain a permanent position in power.(7)

ELECAMs impartiality challenged in the run-up to the 2011 Presidential poll

Although opposition parties initially threatened to boycott and disrupt the October 2011 election, they later changed their stance after Biyas administration partially met some of their demands stipulated in a memorandum issued in 2010.(8) Opposition parties stressed the need to be involved in the electoral process but argued that the odds were a stacked against them as the countrys election management body, ELECAM (an acronym for Elections Cameroon), was believed to be forwarding Biyas interests. Despite Biya acceding to some of the demands of the opposition and adding members of the countrys civil society to ELECAMs makeup, ELECAM does not have financial autonomy. It also cannot declare election results and is subordinate to the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralisation (MINATD), which is currently responsible for organising elections.(9) MINATD has been accused of introducing phantom voters to electoral lists in previous polls and as long as the department has control over ELECAM, opposition groups will question its impartiality. Some opposition parties had even asked for the October 2011 election to be postponed for three years, during which a transitional Government would be constituted with the mandate to revise the Constitution, institute a new electoral code and draw up new electoral lists.(10) This idea mirrors those outlined in the SDF memorandum, but is seen by some as a drastic approach to what is perceived as an unfair election system

which lacks credibility in many respects. Opposition parties mistrust of ELECAM seemed to be warranted when a high ranking member of the organisation was fired from his post a few days before the Presidential election for campaigning for Biya.(11) Despite some hitches, election campaigning was peaceful, with Biyas Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement (CPDM) investing in large scale public appearances and banners across the country.(12) Opposition parties, foremost among them the SDF, also embarked on countrywide election tours in the hope that their personal connection with the voting public would prove to make a difference in the poll.

Opposition parties reject results even before they are released

Voting got off to a slow start with certain polling stations only opening hours later than scheduled. Voters had the choice between Biya and a record 22 opposition candidates.(13) Although official results indicate that there was a 66% voter turnout, observers noted that the turnout was extremely low and it is believed that only 15% of registered voters turned up to vote in some constituencies.(14) Voting generally passed peacefully although two soldiers were killed in an apparent militant attack in the restive Bakassi peninsula.(15) Sporadic attacks, ascribed to disgruntled Nigerians fighting to reclaim the Bakassi Peninsula from Cameroon, are occasionally reported on in the area. Opposition parties were quick to cry foul after voting concluded. In the days following the poll almost all opposition parties filed petitions with the countrys Supreme Court to have the vote annulled, citing numerous instances of electoral fraud. Opposition parties and civil society groups noted evidence of double-voting and a lack of ballot papers in some polling stations and called for fresh elections in six months.(16) Furthermore, opposition groups pointed to ELECAMs incompetence, blaming the election institution for mishandling voter material.(17) ELECAMs chairman, Samuel Fonkam, defended the institution, insisting that opposition groups participated in all stages of the electoral process and could, if necessary, file complaints with ELECAM.(18) John Fru Ndi, leader of the SDF, along with several other opposition leaders went further, calling for mass street protests should the Supreme Court not annul the poll and hold fresh elections.(19) The ruling CPDM stated that although there were irregularities they were not aiming to cheat a victory and called for restraint while the Supreme Court assessed the allegations. Following deliberations, the Supreme Court rejected all 18 requests from the opposition for lack of evidence.(20) While 15 counts were outright rejected, the remaining three were withdrawn by the candidates concerned. According to Bernard Muna of the Alliance for Progressive Forces, those candidates who withdrew their objections did so because they received invitations for the proclamation of the results while their request for annulment were still with the Supreme Court.(21) The courts decision might have a financial reason, as many query whether Cameroon can afford the cost which will be incurred should another election have been called. The country is scheduled to hold municipal and legislative elections in early 2012 against the backdrop of an economic downturn, casting doubt on its financial capacity to organise a re-run of the Presidential election.(22) Responses from the international community regarding the vote have generally been positive, with Frances foreign minister stating that the elections took place in acceptable conditions.(23) The United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, also praised the peaceful manner in which the poll was conducted.(24)

A divided and incompetent opposition blamed for Biyas re-election

Following the Supreme courts ruling on fraud claims, the institution decided to release the election results on 21 October 2011, days before the constitutionally mandated deadline of 25 October 2011.(25) The results indicate that Biya had managed another resounding win. The incumbent President was awarded 77.9% of the vote, with his closest challenger, John Fru Ndi, only garnering 10.7%.(26) This is an even greater win margin for Biya who received 70% of the vote in 2004.(27) Opposition groups have cause to complain about fraud but are themselves to blame for their historical poor showing at the polls. Biyas CPDM has had little difficulty securing election wins as opposition groups have remained fractured while issuing incoherent and often contradictory electoral promises. The SDF in particular has had difficulty sticking to its strategies, leading to a significant drop in the number of opposition party

members represented in the National Assembly.(28) Furthermore, SDF chairman, John Fru Ndi, has remained unchallenged, openly sidelining or firing possible challengers.(29) The same can be said about Ndam Njoya, leader of the second largest opposition party, the Cameroon Democratic Union, as well as Bello Bouba Maigari of the National Union for Democracy and Progress. It is this weakness in the opposition that has been blamed for voter apathy in recent years as voters feel elections will inevitably be won by Biya and his CPDM party.

Calls for mass protests from the opposition go unheeded

It still remains to be seen what the next response of the opposition will be. Calls for mass protests have thus far not been heeded but security has been tightened across the country.(30) Protests are not uncommon in the country, with pro-reform rallies having been held across Cameroon in February 2011.(31) These were brutally suppressed by the police. Similar protests in the west of Cameroon in 2008, inspired by rising food and fuel prices, as well as Biyas move to abolish presidential term limits, resulted in the death of at least 31 people, according to official figures.(32) The run-up to the October 2011 vote also saw sporadic incidents of civil unrest, most notably in September 2011, when a group of armed men dressed as soldiers and claiming to represent a previously unknown group, the Cameroonian Peoples Liberation Army, stopped traffic in Douala calling on Biya to step down.(33) Despite his pro-southern approach to politics, Biya is experiencing his most severe opposition from this region. A separatist movement, the Southern Cameroons National Council, which is calling for the secession and independence of Cameroons two English-speaking regions also staged demonstrations and clashed with security forces on 1 October 2011, the 50th anniversary of the reunification between the former English and French Cameroons.

Biyas sixth term due to be tenuous

Biyas next term as President will be a difficult one, as opposition groups have become more vocal in their resistance to his rule. Cameroon is facing rising unemployment and a steady rise in the cost of living. Economic growth has been slower than expected, with corruption and nepotism scaring investors away.(34) Furthermore, the mining sector has been plagued by an inefficient power supply, hindering a massive employment opportunity. These economic weaknesses, coupled with the high rate of literacy that the country enjoys, could provoke massive unrest should Biya not drastically improve the living conditions of Cameroonians. Besides, Biya also has to contend with a rising radical element within the CPDM. In his attempt to destabilise opposition groups and appease growing discontent, Biya has elected to include opposition politicians in high ranking positions within the CPDM. The restlessness that has consequently developed within the party, as far as power struggles are concerned, has manifested itself in a more radical element arising within the party structure.(35) Many within his party feel that the President, who is currently 78 years old, is too old to complete another seven-year term as President. It has been claimed that Biya is using a series of anti-corruption campaigns to combat the radical elements within his party and various members of the CPDM have thus far been affected by targeted financial probes. Paul Biyas hold on his CPDM party is also bound to be lessened by his frequent foreign sojourns.(36)

Concluding remarks
Paul Biyas overwhelming victory in the October 2011 poll only proves that opposition strategies are not effective. Few doubted the general election outcome, although a better showing by opposition groups was expected, with Biyas government coming under increasing pressure to deliver economically. However, an effective campaign by Biya and his CPDM party and a fractured opposition seemingly paved the way for a landslide victory. Biya has been successful in achieving another seven years in power but his next tenure will be more difficult - especially as Cameroons economy continues to suffer. Biyas age also counts against him and his grip on power is further complicated by a new radical element within his party. Cameroon is scheduled to organise legislative and municipal polls in 2012, which should give opposition parties another chance to organise themselves and take advantage of the cracks that are becoming evident in Paul Biyas 29 year strong dictatorship.

NOTES: (1) Contact Emil Bischoff through Consultancy Africa Intelligences Election Reflection Unit (election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com ). (2) Longtime Cameroonian leader wins reelection, Xinhuanet, 21 October 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com. (3) Turnout low in Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 9 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (4) US State Department, Cameroon, 22 April 2011, http://www.state.gov. (5) Cameroon: Country Profile, BBC News, 19 April 2011, http://news.bbc.co.uk. (6) Aloysius Agendia, Cameroon: Why participation in the 2011 Presidential election may be poor, Participating in Positive Change, 24 July 2010, http://agendia.jigsy.com. (7) Ibid. (8) Divine Ntaryike, Cameroons leading opposition party backtracks on election boycott threat, Voice of America News, 12 August 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (9) Bisong Etahoben, Parties renew calls for Cameroon to postpone elections, Daily Nation, 3 August 2011, http://www.nation.co.ke. (10) Ibid. (11) Turnout low in Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 9 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (12) Anne Look, Campaign underway for Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 28 September 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (13) Turnout low in Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 9 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (14) Ibid. (15) Cameroon policemen on poll duty killed, Aljazeera, 10 October 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net . (16) Cameroon opposition to ask court to annul vote, Reuters, 12 October 2011, http://af.reuters.com. (17) Peter Clottery, Cameroon opposition demands annulment of poll, Voice of America, 18 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (18) Ibid. (19) Cameroon ruling party slams opposition, News24, 18 October 2011, http://www.news24.com (20) Cameroon court rejects request to annul Presidential poll over fraud claims, The Associated Press, 20 October, http://www.washingtonpost.com. (21) Ibid. (22) Bisong Etahoben, Parties renew calls for Cameroon to postpone elections, Daily Nation, 3 August 2011, http://www.nation.co.ke. (23) Xavier Bourgois, Cameroon opposition wants vote nullified, AFP, 11October 2011, http://www.google.com. (24) Scott Stearns, Cameroons Presidential vote tally challenged, Voice of America, 12 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (25) Bisong Etahoben, Parties renew calls for Cameroon to postpone elections, Daily Nation, 3 August 2011, http://www.nation.co.ke. (26) Rennier Kaze, Cameroons Biya re-elected president for sixth term: court, AFP, 21 October 2011, http://www.google.com. (27) Xavier Bourgois, Cameroon opposition wants vote nullified, AFP, 11 October 2011, http://www.google.com. (28) Divine Ntaryike, Cameroons leading opposition party backtracks on election boycott threat, Voice of America News, 12 August 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (29) Aloysius Agendia, Cameroon: Why participation in the 2011 Presidential election may be poor, Participating in Positive Change, 24 July 2010, http://agendia.jigsy.com. (30) Longtime Cameroonian leader wins reelection, Xinhuanet, 21 October 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com. (31) Faith Karimi, Cameroonians plan anti-government protests, CNN, 23 February 2011, http://edition.cnn.com. (32) Anti-government rioting spreads in Cameroon, The New York Times, 7 December 2008, http://www.nytimes.com. (33) Rennier Kaze, Cameroons Biya re-elected president for sixth term: court, AFP, 21 October 2011, http://www.google.com. (34) Cameroon opposition to ask court to annul vote, Reuters, 12 October 2011, http://af.reuters.com. (35) Aloysius Agendia, Cameroon: why participation in the 2011 presidential election may be poor, Participating in Positive Change, 24 July 2010, http://agendia.jigsy.com. (36) Rennier Kaze, Cameroons Biya re-elected president for sixth term: court, AFP, 21 October 2011,

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