Short Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 6, No.

1, Nov 2011

Energy Mix In Jordan - Current Situation and Future Trends

Hani Obeid1, and M.S.Y. Ebaid2
1

Applied Science University/Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Amman, Jordan Email: Haniob@gmail.com 2 Philadelphia University/Faculty of Engineering, Mechanical Department, Amman, Jordan Email: mebaid2@philadelphia.edu.jo

AbstractThis paper presents the current energy and power situation in Jordan and the possible future options in terms of energy and power mix and the potentials, trends, and various scenarios to be adopted in the electrical power sector. Index TermsEnergy and power, wind energy, solar energy, biomass, hydropower, geothermal, oil shale.

TABLE I. ELECTRICAL ENERGY GENERATED BY TYPE OF (20 09 )

GENERATION IN

GWH

I. INTRODUCTION Jordan lies in the Middle East within latitude 290 11 and 330 22 north and longitude 340 59 and 390 east. Its total area is 89213 km2, and it has a population of 6.133 m (2010) with Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of US$27.534 bn (2010) and annual growth of 7% (2000-2009) [1, 2, 3]. Thus, the per capita annual income is US$4,490. Jordan has very limited conventional energy sources (gas and oil). The energy needs of Jordan rely completely on imported oil and gas from neighboring countries, and this constitutes a burden on its financial situation. The main challenge facing the country is the high annual growth rate of electricity consumption, which is estimated to be around 6% during the period (2009-2040). The main drivers for this high demand growth are population growth and economic growth. Energy security is a major challenge facing the country and several plans and studies were conducted to satisfy these needs, including the nuclear option to generate electricity [4]. II. CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION The total primary energy consumption was 7357 thousand ton of oil equivalent (toe), and the per capita consumption was 1200 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) (2010). The energy bill was 12% of GDP and consumed 52.2% of the foreign exchange earned by export of all Jordanian commodities [3]. Jordan is considered one of the low-middle income countries according to World Bank classification, which defines low-middle income countries as developing countries for which annual gross national production is US$ 5999 or less and consumes less than 3300 kgoe/capita. The total electrical energy generated was 14208 GWh (2009). Table I shows the total energy generated by type of generation. The energy mix (2009) in Jordan consisted of 1% electrical import, 1% from renewable resources, 40% from natural gas, and 58% from oil products. 2011 ACEEE DOI: 01.IJRTET.06.01. 224

Table II shows the electricity consumption for various sectors.

TABLE II. ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF VARIOUS SECTORS

III. ENERGY RESOURCES IN JORDAN Energy resources in Jordan are limited. Domestic energy, including oil and gas, cover only 3-4% of the countrys energy needs [4]. The production of crude oil was 1200 ton, and gas production was 6.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) in 2010. The total production of oil from 1989 until 2010 was 65.2 thousand ton, while total gas production for the same period was 186.1 bcf. Thus, the total production from oil and gas resources in Jordan from 1989 until 2010 was 3973 thousands of oil equivalent, which constitutes 50% of what was consumed in 2010 from primary energy resources. Therefore, decision makers and policy planners are directing their efforts towards other types of energy resources, namely renewable energy resources, to satisfy the countrys needs for the coming 30 years. A. Oil Shale Oil shale reserves in the country are 40 billion ton with average oil content of about 10%. Preliminary studies concluded that oil shale reserves at Lujjun site are enough for a 50000 b/d oil shale retorting plant for 30 year, and surface retorting would be more appropriate the oil shale in Jordan [5]. Moreover, the prefeasibility studies indicated a potential for direct burning in a 300 MW power plant [6]. While we are confident that mining followed by surface retorting is a

Short Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 6, No. 1, Nov 2011 technically viable approach to producing oil shale, we are less sanguine about projecting the costs of first-of-a-kind commercial plants that use this technology. The cost estimates for a 50,000 b/d production plant is between US$5 billion and US$7 billion (2005 dollars). If we assume operating and maintenance costs to be between US$17 and US$23 per barrel, then in order for this plant to be profitable, the oil price per barrel should be between $70 and $95 [7]. B. Wind Energy Jordan has a high potential of wind energy as annual average wind speed exceeds 7 m/s in some areas, and according to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) this a good site (a good site is a site with the average wind speed at 6.9 m/s at 50m height above ground level). Wind energy is considered the most feasible and reliable among renewable energy technologies after hydropower because these two energy technologies have zero fuel cost (low marginal cost technologies). At present time, wind energy is used mainly for electricity generation. There are two wind farms connected to the electrical grid with installed capacity of 320 KW and 1125 KW respectively. The energy generated from these two wind farms is 3 GWh (2009) [8,9]. The future energy plan for the years 2010-2020 is expected to have 700 MW installed capacity from wind farms as shown in the following table:
TABLE III. W IND ENERGY

D. Hydroelectric Energy Hydroelectric energy resource in Jordan is very limited. There are two small hydro stations in Jordan. King Talal Hydrostation with installed capacity of 6 MW and total generated electrical energy is 14 GWh (2009), and the other one is at Aqaba power station with 4 MW installed capacity. The potential of hydropower generation will be 600 MW when connecting the Red Sea and the Dead Sea (RSDS) canal [13,14]. E. Biomass Energy Biomass energy in Jordan is limited to the utilization of Municipal Solid Wastes for electricity generation. The per capita of waste generated in Jordan is about 0.9 kg/d and the total generation of waste is estimated at 3.5 million tons per year [11]. The Jordan Biomass Company JBCo owned and operated a 1 MW plant and the annual energy generated was GWh (2009). The total capacity of biogas plant currently installed in Jordan is 3.5 MW. It is planned to expand it to 5 MW. The potential of biogas generation is about 50 MW [15,16]. F. Geothermal Energy There are many thermal resources spread along the Jordan Rift in addition to wells in the Eastern Plateau [status of Jordan renewables]. The results of studies showed that the thermal resources are of the low enthalpy type ( 1500), and their optimum use is for space heating, greenhouses and fish farming. At present time the potential of geothermal energy in Jordan is under investigation. IV. ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECAST

The average cost per KW of installed wind power capacity currently varies from US$1300/KW to US$1650/KW, where the turbine itself comprises about 80% of this total cost [10]. The total capital investment in wind energy plants is between US$910 to US$1155 million. If we estimate the cost construction of wind turbine (100 units x 1 MW) between US$530 to US$790 million (1999 dollars), then the total capital required for wind energy utilization will be in the range of US$3.71 and US$5.53 billion. C. Solar Energy The daily average solar irradiance (average insulation intensity on a horizontal surface) ranges between 4-7 KWh/ m2, which is one of the highest in the world. This corresponds to a total annual of 1400-2300 KWh/m2. The average sunshine duration is more than 300 d/y. The capacity of PV installation in 2006 is 0.5 MW, produced energy is 1 GWh, which is equivalent to 78 toe, saving in primary energy of 226 toe. These systems are used for waterpumping systems, powering radio-telephone stations, as well as supplying electricity to clinics and schools of very small communities in remote areas [11,12]. It is planned to install 130 MW of solar energy plants in 2020 to generate electricity. 2011 ACEEE DOI: 01.IJRTET.06.01. 224

The total electricity generated in 2000 and 2010 was 7378 GWh and 14777 GWh respectively, with annual growth of 5%. It is estimated that this trend of annual growth of demand in electrical energy in the period between 2010 and 2030 will be increased to 6.5% annually [3, 4]. Table IV. shows the installed power and peak load in the period from 2006 to 2010.
TABLE IV. I NSTALLED
POWER AND PEAK LOAD

2006-2010

The average annual growth of peak load will be 3.4% for the period from 2010 to 2030, while the annual growth of the electricity generated for the same period will be 3.52%. Table -V shows the dynamic change of peak load and electricity generated.
TABLE V. PEAK
LOAD AND ELECTRICTY GENERATED

2010-2030

Short Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 6, No. 1, Nov 2011 Fig. 1 shows in graphical form the peak load and electricity generated from 2010 to 2030. AKNOWLEDGEMENT The work presented in this paper has been performed by financial grant from Applied Sciences University, AmmanJordan REFERENCES [1] R. Chedid and others. A sub-regional outlook of renewable
energy potential: the case of Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. Draft conference paper prepared for Renewable energy working group global network on energy for sustainable development. [2] Kamel Araj. Jordans nuclear power program. First Arab conference on the prospects of nuclear power for electricity generation and seawater desalination. Tunsia, June 23-26, 2010. [3] Annual report of National Electric Power Company, 2010. [4] Updated master strategy of energy sector in Jordan, Dec. 2007, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. [5] Musa Resheidat & others. Results based management for energy in Jordan with reference to the use of oil shale. 26th oil shale symposium, Colorado School of Mines, 16-19 Oct., 2006. [6] Munther S. Bsieso. Jordans experience in oil shale studies employing different technologies. 26th oil shale symposium, Colorado School of Mines, 16-19 Oct., 2006. [7] J.T.Bartis. Oil shale developments in the United States. Prospects and Policy issues. Rand Publications, 2005. [8] Z. Sabra. Wind energy in Jordan use and perspectives. DEWI magazine, No. 15, Aug. 1999. [9] Omar Badran. Wind energy research and development. [10] Soren Krohn. The economics of wind energy. A report by EWEA, March 2009. [11] O. Badran, E. Abdulhadi, R. Mamlook. Evaluation of solar electric power technologies in Jordan. Jordan journal od mechanical & industrial engineering society JJMIE. Vol. 4, No. 1, Jan. 2010. [12] G. Halasa. Wind-solar hybrid electrical power generation in Hordan. Jordan journal od mechanical & industrial engineering society JJMIE. Vol. 4, No. 1, Jan. 2010. [13] M. kabariti. Identification of National energy policies and energy access in Jordan. Energy Research Group-AUB, 25 Jan. 2005. [14] Deepika Sagi and Jason Brown. Red sea / Dead sea hydro and water project. ECE 445 Senior design proposal, Sept. 2004. [15] Z.S.H. Abu Hamatteh and others. Biogas energy: unexplored source of renewable energy in Jordan. International conference on renewable energies and power quality (ICREPQ 10), GranadaSpain, 23-25 March, 2010. [16] Annual report of Central Electrical generating Company, 2010.

Fig. 1 Peak Load and Electricity Generated

V. SCENARIOS OF FUTURE EXPANSION In order to meet the requirements for future demand in electrical energy, different scenarios were studied. These studies focused on expanding generation rather than importing energy from neighboring countries. In recent years the nuclear option became a major choice of government plans despite public opinion and green peace activists standing against it. It is estimated that 300 MW is needed every year up to 2020 to meet the demand in electrical energy. The investment required in the energy sector is estimated about US$18 billion in the coming decade. It is important to note in this regard that certain technical issues should be solved as the system expands. Technical problems include the increasing of fault levels at main bus bars, the interconnection of 600 MW wind energy, and finally the interconnection of 1000 MW nuclear power plant. CONCLUSIONS Jordan lacks resources of energy and depends on imported oil and gas, which is estimated at US$4.8 billion (2011) and accounts for 17% of GDP. The rate of growth for electrical energy is 6% annually, and that means adding 300 MW of installed capacity annually up to 2020. Two factors must be considered in energy plans of the country. The first one is energy conservation, and the second one is the investment in renewable energy. The target is to make the share of renewable energy in energy balance 7% and 10% in 2015 and 2020 respectively.

2011 ACEEE DOI: 01.IJRTET.06.01. 224