DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK

India Alternative Research

Market Snapshot
On the back of uncertainty emanating from the global markets, Nifty ended the day lower by ~1.3%. Large cap gainers included HUL (up ~3.5%), Wipro (up ~1.8%) and Tata Power (up ~0.9%). On the losing side were ICICI Bank (down ~3.8%), M&M (down ~3.40%) and Sterlite Inds (down ~3.2%). European markets saw sharp correction after Greece decided to seek its citizens vote on the proposed rescue plan for the debt concerns. We expect Nifty to trade within the range of 52005270 with a negative bias. In the US, the ISM factory index dropped to 50.8 in October from 51.6 in September thereby highlighting fresh concerns of stagnation.
Yogesh Radke +91226620 3199 yogesh.radke@edelcap.com November 2, 2011

Market Snapshot 01-Nov Nifty 5258.0 17480.8 6252.8 6936.5 Sensex BSE MidCap BSE SmallCap Nov Futures Average ICC (p.a.)** Volume (INR mn) Futures 227,854 323,459 375,743 204,466 251,534 272,640 728,639 107,127 21,906 505,779 273,082 362,952 1,141,813 1.08 0.84 1.32 1.57 11.4 28.6 37.8 27.2 -8.8 2.2 -0.8 4.4 0.9 1.0 7.4 28.6 -3.5 -20.6 9.6% 10.4% -0.9% 31-Oct 5326.6 17705.0 6298.0 6974.6 % Chg -1.3 -1.3 -0.7 -0.5

Sentiment Indicators
For the November series, the maximum OI build up in options is seen at strikes of 5400 CE (~5.13mn shares) and 5000 PE (~4.69mn shares). Nifty IVs for November series is ~21.5% level.

Outlook

Call Put

Nifty opened lower on Tuesday and continued to trade down on lingering concerns Total 927,057 NSE Cash Vol. 97,720 emerging from Europe. The index has slipped below the 5300 mark since making a high BSE Cash Vol. 22,382 on Friday near the 200 DMA. The second consecutive negative close has shifted the Open Interest (INR mn) ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-iimbemis from 115.113.11.144 on 2011-11-02 11:09:39 EDT. DownloadPDF. Futures 501,672 balance in favor of a nearterm decline as the bullish island gap has nearly been closed Call 285,113 at 5230. Trading volumes were at an average but market breadth dragged in favor of Put 366,136 Total 1,152,921 declines suggesting broadbased fear in the market.
Put Call Ratios

With the bullish island gap getting closed quickly, the euphoria in the market has does down as Nifty looks to test the bullish breakout area at between 51705200. Hourly oscillators had warned of a correction with a sell crossover but the MAs could not hold support. Daily setup on the other hand continues to remain constructive thus making it a critical trend determining phase. Key pivot for Nifty lies at 5170 (multiple supports, earlier resistance) which of broken lower will shift the balance in favor of bears. All the sectoral indices ended in red with the rate sensitive Autos and Realty taking the biggest knock of ~2%. High beta Banking and Metals followed suit with losses of 1.50% each. The defensives Healthcare and FMCG outperformed the market with loss of ~0.50%. Broader market Midcap and Smallcap indices too ended lower however managed to outperform the frontline peers with loss of ~0.6%.

PCR WPCR OI PCR Total OI/ Volume Nifty IVs at 20 - 24% levels.

1.16 1.07 1.28 1.24

FII Activity* (INR Mn) (31-Oct)

Volume Cash Index Futures Stock Futures Total

Buy 26,108 14,828 12,015 52,951

Sell 21,259 17,166 17,844 56,269

Net 4,849 (2,338) (5,829) (3,318)

Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, ABGS, NMDC, HUVR Bearish Setups: RBXY, LPC, BPCL, INFY
Nifty: Resistance: 5376/5314 Support: 5220/5170

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F&O Dividend Update

STOCKS GOING EX TODAY Bloomberg Ticker
EXID IN EQUITY MRF IN EQUITY

Company Name
Exide Industries Mrf Ltd.

DPS 0.9 3.00

Ex Date 02Nov11 02Nov11

STOCKS GOING EX IN THE EXPIRY 26th Oct 24th Nov Bloomberg Ticker Company Name
DABUR IN EQUITY FTECH IN EQUITY Dabur India Ltd. Financial Technologies (I) Ltd

DPS 0.55 1.00 3.5 1.00

HEXW IN EQUITY HUVR IN EQUITY

NMDC IN EQUITY SUNTV IN EQUITY

Hexaware Technologies Limited Hindustan Unilever Ltd

NMDC Ltd Sun Tv Network Ltd.

Ex Date 04Nov11 BM On Nov 11 / Ex Nov 17 03Nov11 04Nov11 17Nov11 BM On Nov 03 / Ex Nov 08

BM Board Meeting; BC Book Closure; RD Record Date

Bloomberg Ticker RLTA IN EQUITY

Company Name Rolta India Ltd

DPS 3.50

Ex Date

Dividend Impact on current and next month futures Bloomberg Code Company

1.18
ExDate

points Div per Share (INR) Impact in Nfity Weight in points Nifty

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-iimbemis from 115.113.11.144 on 2011-11-02 3.50 11:09:39 EDT. DownloadPDF. HUVR IN Equity Hindustan Unilever Ltd 04Nov11 1.18 2.49

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Derivatives Daily
Futures Snapshot
Top OI Rises Scrip Colgate Palmolive Havells India NMDC Ltd Central Bank Oil Ltd Areva T&D Tata Chemicals Orchid Chemicals % OI Chg 34 32 26 18 16 15 14 12 OI 254 668 937 2,256 48 1,974 393 6,638 % Price Chg 3.9 7.1 0.0 (5.6) (2.2) (1.6) (3.4) 6.2 % Future Vol Chg 72 676 631 174 123 82 101 332 Top OI Falls Scrip Glaxosmithkline Mini NIFTY Tech Mahindra CNX IT Power Finance Corp Century Textiles Kingfisher Airlines Vijaya Bank % OI Chg (10) (9) (7) (7) (6) (6) (5) (5) OI 12 990 330 25 8,026 2,582 9,408 7,028 % Price Chg 2.2 (1.3) 1.0 (1.0) 3.1 (1.4) (1.2) (2.2) % Future Vol Chg (31) 28 50 20 104 (69) 85 (56)

Top Price Change Scrip Havells India IVRCL Gujarat Minerals Deve Orchid Chemicals Central Bank Hindustan Constructio Aditya Birla Nuvo GMR Infrastructure % Price Chg 7.1 (6.5) 6.5 6.2 (5.6) (5.5) 5.4 (5.4) % OI Chg 32 (2) 4 12 18 0 2 (1) OI 668 12,084 478 6,638 2,256 24,864 900 46,728 % Future Vol Chg 676 24 5082 332 174 21 309 (13)

Top Volume Rises Scrip Gujarat Minerals Dev Havells India NMDC Ltd Sobha Developers Lt Fortis PNB Sterlite Optical Orchid Chemicals % Future Vol FutureVol % Price Chg % OI Chg Chg 5082 676 631 631 582 460 410 332 1,140 1,211 724 95 3,478 4,900 408 9,665 6.5 7.1 0.0 (4.1) 4.1 3.7 (2.4) 6.2 4 32 26 0 1 (1) (3) 12

Options Snapshot ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-iimbemis from 115.113.11.144 on 2011-11-02 11:09:39 EDT. DownloadPDF. Most Active Calls Most Active Puts Call Volume (Contracts) 1,147,392 7,381 7,248 7,209 5,576 Put Volume (Contracts) 1,376,523 4,118 4,305 3,124 4,280 Put Volume (Contracts) 1,376,523 4,305 4,280 4,118 3,532 Call Volume (Contracts) 1,147,392 7,248 5,576 7,381 4,821

Scrip NIFTY Hindustan Unilever ICICI Bank SBI Reliance Top IV Premium Scrip NIFTY Unitech Suzlon GVK Pow. & Infra Ltd. RCOM

% Chg 33 17 (21) (8) -

% Chg 40 41 (19) 9 -

Scrip NIFTY ICICI Bank Reliance Hindustan Unilever Tata Motors Top HV Premium

% Chg 40 (19) 41 77

% Chg 33 (21) 17 116

IVs 22 50 44 55 57

HVs 26 40 36 26 46

Call Vol 57,370 32,152 7,816 2,728 1,824

Put Vol 68,826 5,088 1,144 144 904

Scrip Dish Tv India Ltd. Glaxosmithkline Yes Bank Tata Tea Ruchi Soya Industrie

IVs 21 39 17 20

HVs 38 17 55 33 36

Call Vol 84 0 122 204 2

Put Vol 0 0 64 0 0

Nifty Watch Nifty IVs at 20 - 24% levels. Market Wide PCR up from 1.08 to 1.16 Nifty OI PCR down from 1.39 to 1.35 Nifty down 1.3%, Futures OI down 2% Nifty Nov futures trading at 33 points premium as against 21 points premium India VIX at 19.8% as against 18.73%

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Date Special Report Date Monthly Report ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-iimbemis from 115.113.11.144 on 2011-11-02 11:09:39 EDT. DownloadPDF. 15-Jul-09 22-Sep-11 30-Sep -11 01-Mar-10 Master Moves
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