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TM
1 standard deviation = 1 STD = 1 sigma = 1 PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) STDactivity (or activity) Varactivity (or 2 activity) STDproject (or project)
TIME/COST Estimating
Three point estimate for activity duration, weighted average Standard Deviation of Activity Variance of Activity Standard Deviation of Project Project Duration Estimating in Initiating Estimating early in Planning Estimating late in Planning Expected Monetary Value Net Benefit
(PERT1 + PERT2 + PERT3 + ) + (# of sigmas STDproject) +/- 50% from actual -10% to +25% from actual -5% to +10% or +/-10% from actual Probability Impact [$] EMV cost
Variable
Abbreviation AC EV PV CV CPI SV
Description Actual cost incurred for work performed Value of work performed Budget assigned for work performed Measure of cost performance Measure of cost efficiency Measure of schedule performance
Formula
Actual Cost Earned Value Planned Value Cost Variance Cost Performance Index Schedule Variance
CV = EV AC CPI = EV / AC SV = EV PV
SPI BAC ETC (for atypical variance) ETC (for typical variance)
Measure of schedule efficiency Budget assigned for work Assumes future work to be performed as budgeted Assumes past performance to continue throughout Use when original est. is flawed Assumes future work to be performed as budgeted Assumes past performance to continue throughout Forecast of variance Cost performance necessary to achieve BAC or new EAC goal Work remaining divided by funds remaining
SPI = EV / PV
ETC = BAC EV ETC = (BAC EV) / CPI EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC EAC = AC + BAC EV EAC = AC + ETC = AC + (BAC EV) / CPI or EAC = BAC / CPI VAC = BAC EAC TCPI = (BAC EV) / (BAC AC)
BASED ON BAC
COST Forecasting
Estimate At Completion
VAC TCPI
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