ENS Economic Futures Report 2008

Economic Futures Report For
North Shore City

full report Tables, Indicators & Appendices
Incorporating
November 2008 Executive Summary
Promoting North Shore

Economic Development
Foreword
This report is designed to assist businesses make important decisions that will impact not only their own organisations’
development but also the growth of the local economy.
By forecasting the future demand and supply of skilled labour across multiple industry types, the report also represents
a baseline for ongoing economic planning. This data, supported by assessments of labour productivity and residential
occupancy, is intended to support the development of business cases for enterprises looking to grow, invest and locate
in North Shore City.
Enterprise North Shore and Market Economics Ltd would like to thank the businesses and organisations who have
contributed to this report by way of completing the Economic Futures Survey.
Terry Hoskins
Chief Executive
Enterprise North Shore
contents
PART ONE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 2031 Future Scenario & Targeted Business Sectors...................................................... 3
1.1 Future Economic Make-up......................................................................................... 4
1.2 Targeted Sectors - Future Performance..................................................................... 5
1.2.1 Selected ratios................................................................................................... 7
2 Key Indicators................................................................................................................... 8
2.1 Employment................................................................................................................ 9
2.2 Economic Output.......................................................................................................10
2.3 Targeted Business Sectors........................................................................................10
3 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................11
4 Next steps........................................................................................................................11
PART TWO - FULL REPORT................................................................................................... 13
Table of Contents
Front cover: Aerial shot of Lake Pupuke, Takapuna, and The Sugar Grab sculpture at Chelsea Sugar.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Executive Summary highlights level economic characteristics of threats to economic growth.
the local economy’s ability to drive the City.
While the resulting data suggests
growth and deliver better standards
Its aim is to set a baseline for the strong growth, it is clear that
of living to North Shore households
future and endorse the focus on the ideal future economic
through wealth creation and
the targeted business sectors environment will not occur
employment opportunities. It forms
which are clustered around high without intervention. Enterprise
part of a package of information
technology, education, sports, North Shore, in conjunction with
prepared for Enterprise North Shore
health, and professional business North Shore City Council, has
and North Shore City Council and
services as key drivers of growth. a vital role to play in facilitating
reflects:
In order to quantify a likely, growth in the targeted sectors and
• A summary of the ‘Future optimal future, Enterprise North the economy overall, by ensuring
Scenario’ based on a modelled Shore will continue to work with investment conditions in North
economic future, and businesses to define the actual Shore are appropriate and that
potential inherent in North Shore issues such as access to skilled
• The key indicators of growth in
as a location for these key industry labour and other key factors of
terms of demographics and high-
groups, and to address issues or production are addressed.
1 2031 Future Scenario &

TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS
North Shore City is the fourth largest augmented with an internet-based
city in New Zealand in terms of survey.
population, and constitutes one of
Invitations to participate in the survey
seven local authority areas within
were sent to businesses on the
the Auckland region. Being part of
Enterprise North Shore (ENS) mailing
New Zealand’s largest population
list and links to the website were
and business centre creates many
published in the Enterprise magazine.
opportunities, issues and challenges
for the City. The ‘Future Scenario’ highlights key
shifts in the economy in terms of
This report seeks to develop and
employment, output and value added
describe a ‘Future Scenario’ for the
with a focus on the targeted business
North Shore economy as generated
sectors. Similarly, future employment
by using the Economic Futures
requirements have been determined
Model (EFM). The ‘Future Scenario’
by occupation and sector.
is a projection of the likely nature
of the economy (in 2031) based on
historic sectoral trends, underlying
characteristics and industry
dynamics. The modelling work was

“ The strongest
growth in
percentage terms
is projected to
1.1 Future Economic Make-up
Current productive GDP generated
within North Shore City is
Business Services takes the lead from
Wholesaling as the largest contributor
to GDP in the City (at almost $1.8bn
by 2031) as the structure of the
approximately $12.7bn (2006) and is economy moves towards a more
occur in high expected to grow by $8.8bn to some
services-orientated model. This
technology-based $21.7bn by 2031 in real terms (68%
confirms one of the North Shore
enterprises, growth in total). The strongest growth
economy’s defining characteristics,
including Marine, in percentage terms is projected
that of being consumption driven.
ICT, Electronics to occur in high technology-based
and Niche enterprises, including Marine, ICT, ENS aims to reduce this
Manufacturing. Electronics and Niche Manufacturing. dependence on consumption-led
In terms of actual growth, Business economic growth by attracting
Services will add some $873m in more large businesses to the North
contribution to GDP over the next 25 Shore and increasing the local
or so years. Strong contributions are employment base. The table reflects
also made by the Wholesale sector the GDP contributions by the top 20
($529m) and Retail Trades ($324m). sectors.
CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20), 2006 – 2031

2006 ($’m) 2031 ($’m)
# Sector $ Sector $
1 Wholesale trade 894 Business services 1,756
2 Business services 883 Wholesale trade 1,423
3 Owner-occupied dwellings 843 Owner-occupied dwellings 1,252
4 Retail trade 559 Retail trade 887
5 Communication services 557 Real estate 856
6 Real estate 538 Communication services 836
7 Health & community services 387 Construction 647
8 Construction 340 Health & community services 586
9 Central government 272 Education 427
10 Education 262 Central government 406
11 Insurance 204 Machinery & equipment manufacturing 348
12 Finance 193 Finance 309
13 Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 182 Insurance 307
14 Printing, publishing & recorded media 134 Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 248
15 Personal & other community services 115 Printing, publishing & recorded media 221
16 Machinery & equipment manufacturing 113 Cultural & recreational services 213
17 Cultural & recreational services 109 Personal & other community services 198
18 Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 96 Accommodation, restaurants & bars 192
19 Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing 29 Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 167
20 Accommodation, restaurants & bars 93 Services to finance & investment 148

1.2 Targeted Sectors -
Future Performance
The targeted business sectors are
“ Under the ‘Future
Scenario’ approximately
127,000 FTEs are forecast
to be working on the
expected to grow strongly over the
next 20 years or so. The table below North Shore by 2031.
highlights growth in contribution to GDP
made by the targeted business sectors
to 2031. These sectors increase their VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS
contribution to total value added in North (SELECTED YEARS)
Shore from 26% to almost 28% by 2031.
The strongest growth is expected to NZ$’000 2006 2011 2021 2031
occur in the High Technology sector High Technology 461,177 521,256 664,254 852,401
with an annual average growth rate of
Education 54,668 61,136 74,908 89,096
2.7%. Financial and Business Services
Sports & Perform. 61,592 70,580 92,049 118,654
is projected to grow at 2.4% (these
Financial & Profes. 1,071,232 1,214,177 1,549,351 1,958,799
growth rates are in line with survey
Health 289,942 319,425 380,140 437,318
responses from businesses in these
sectors). In total the targeted sectors Total (Targeted) 1,938,611 2,186,574 2,760,701 3,456,269
are expected to be ‘adding value’ of North Shore 7,429,000 8,313,000 10,230,000 12,308,000
$3.4bn in 2031, up from $1.9bn in 2008. % of North Shore 26.10% 26.30% 26.99% 28.08%
In terms of total economic activity the

GROSS OUTPUT – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS (SELECTED YEARS)
targeted sectors are expected to grow
from $3.2bn in Gross Output terms to High Technology 830,880 940,546 1,199,937 1,546,551
more than $5.7bn by 2031. As a share Education 67,187 75,116 92,017 109,545
of total North Shore activity, the sectors Sports & Perform. 116,642 133,053 173,381 223,542
grow from 24.9% to 26.6% by 2031. Financial & Profes. 1,807,717 2,053,666 2,619,925 3,314,878
Employment in the targeted sectors is Health 378,930 417,425 496,948 570,774
expected to grow from 23,600 in 2008 Total (Targeted) 3,201,355 3,619,806 4,582,208 5,765,290
to around 36,640 by 2031. The largest North Shore 12,872,000 14,476,000 17,900,000 21,678,000
sector is Financial and Business Services % of North Shore 24.87% 25.01% 25.60% 26.60%
where growth of more than 7,600
employment opportunities is expected
to 2031.
In total the targeted sectors are EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED SECTORS)
projected to grow (under the ‘Future
Scenario’) from 28.3% of North Shore 2006 2011 2021 2031
City employment to 28.8% by 2031. High Technology 4,245 4,713 5,790 7,230
While this implies faster growth here Education 1,083 1,171 1,346 1,501
than elsewhere in the economy, it is Sports & Performance 989 1,096 1,333 1,612
expected to occur at a slower rate than Financial & Professional 12,357 13,663 16,559 19,962
the growth in GDP contribution from Health 4,928 5,257 5,874 6,333
targeted sectors (26% - 28%). Total (Targeted) 23,602 25,899 30,902 36,638
The relationship between occupation North Shore (Total) 83,500 95,424 111,299 127,150
structure and FTEs is not one-to-one as TBAP Share of 28.27% 27.14% 27.77% 28.81%
an FTE may be made up of two part-time North Shore
workers. However, occupation structure
provides a robust way of assessing
future skills requirements to achieve
the economic structure projected under
the ‘Future Scenario’ outlook and the
following table summarises employment
into occupations and indicates growth
per occupation in percentage terms as
well as the actual numbers.

EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION – PROJECTIONS (‘000)
Occupation Projections Occupation Ranking
(in thousands) Growth Growth
Occupations
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2006 % #
-2016 -2031
Chief Executives, GMs and Legislators 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.8 1.0 2.6 18 3
Specialist Managers 11.0 12.0 13.1 14.2 15.2 16.3 2.1 5.3 20 1
Arts and Media Professionals 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.7 6 27
Bus., Human Res. & Marketing Prof. 7.1 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.7 1.4 3.6 16 2
Design, Eng., Science & Trans Prof. 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6 0.8 2.1 3 5
Education Professionals 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 0.7 1.6 41 10
Health Professionals 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 0.5 1.1 40 15
ICT Professionals 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.8 0.6 1.8 4 7
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 0.4 0.9 19 21
Engin., ICT and Science Tech’s 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 0.4 1.2 14 14
Electrotech & Teleco Trades 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.7 2 26
Health and Welfare Support 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.3 30 39
Carers and Aides 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 0.3 0.8 38 24
Sports and Personal Service Workers 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 0.4 1.0 10 18
Total Other Occupations 51.0 55.8 60.5 65.2 70.0 74.7 9.5 23.6
Total Employment 87.5 95.6 103.6 111.5 119.4 127.3 16.1 39.8
“ The most significant

growth in occupation
occurs in Hospitality
Under the ‘Future Scenario’
approximately 127,000 FTEs
are forecast to be working on
the North Shore by 2031. This
These are key occupations for the
targeted sectors and are required
in large numbers in order for the
North Shore economy to achieve the
represents growth of some 39,800 projected future. In terms of actual
from the 2006 position (46% growth). numbers the most growth is required
Total occupations in North Shore in Specialist Managers, with the
businesses increase at approximately economy requiring a further 5,300 by
the same rate (a 47% increase from 2031. This is followed by Business
101,000 to 148,000). The most and Marketing Professionals (3,620),
significant growth in occupation occurs CEOs and Legislators (2,590) and
in Hospitality – in total 68% more are Design and Engineering professionals
required by 2031 than in 2006. This (2,080). Should the targeted sectors
again points to the consumption base deliver significant growth, competition
of the North Shore economy and is for suitably skilled labour will intensify.
driven strongly by local population
Significant growth in the Health
growth and increases in consumption
and Education professions are
per household and a generally wealthy
also anticipated, with an additional
household base.
1,150 and 1,620 workers required
In terms of percentage growth respectively to meet the growth
the next greatest increases are needs of the City. The ageing of the
expected in: Electronic Technology current workforce, that is potentially
and Telecommunications’ workers uneven across different occupational
(63%); Design, Engineering, Science groups, is likely to intensify the
and Transport Professionals (60%); requirements in certain areas (notably
ICT Professionals (59%); and Arts in the health professions).
and Media Professionals (58%).

1.2.1 Selected Ratios
The value added per FTE is projected

to grow for both the targeted sectors
The importance and dominance of
Financial and Professional Services
expose the local economy to shocks
and external movements in the
“ North Shore’s population
is expected to be in the
region of 270,000 by 2026.
and the overall economy, with wider business environment – such
the targeted sectors’ value added as the global economic slowdown
projected to increase by $9,808/FTE caused by the current credit crunch.
(a movement of 11.6%) between While the economic modelling
2006 and 2031. The anticipated incorporated variables to deal with
movements and trends in the changing demand conditions, the
individual targeted sectors of the purpose of the modelling was not
North Shore are summarised in the to predict/forecast the effects on
subsequent table. the economy as a result of shocks,
The relative growth and movements such as the credit crunch, or oil price
in Financial and Professional, and movements, rather to show how
High Technology sectors revealed the economy responds to alternative
the lowest overall growth but from future outlooks.
a large base (i.e. these sectors are Some of the risk associated
significantly larger than some of with the exposure could also be
the other sectors - almost 100% translated into opportunities for
larger in some instances). Health is some targeted sub-sectors. For
projected to have the largest change example, Advertising Services
in percentage terms. (L785100) might experience an
The different sectors’ internal increase for services as firms
characteristics influence the aim to increase market exposure
degree to which the value added and attempt to build on existing
per FTE can be developed. This branding images in times of
implies that investing in the constrained demand. These
targeted sectors and encouraging activities have strong linkages with
growth in these sectors, will the Commercial Art and Display
generate more wealth within the Services (L785200) sector which is
economy than focusing on the also a targeted sub-sector. Another
economy in general. example of a sub-sector which could
stand to benefit from the credit
crunch and the slowing economy
is the Business Management
Services (785500) sub-sector. The
increased financial pressures is
expected to drive enterprises to
lower production and inputs costs
while increasing productivity. Other
factors that will have an impact
on the North Shore economy are
inflation and interest rates, reducing
the purchasing power of domestic
households and businesses.
VALUE ADDED/FTE TRENDS –

NORTH SHORE TARGETED SECTORS
2008 2031 Movement % Change
High Technology 109,826 117,894 8,068 7.3%
Education 51,411 59,347 7,936 15.4%
Sports & Performance 63,262 73,618 10,356 16.4%
Financial & Professional 91,135 98,126 6,991 7.7%
Health 57,779 69,057 11,278 19.5%
Total (Targeted) 84,528 94,336 9,808 11.6%

2 Key INDICATORS
“ North Shore City is

second only to the central
government-dominated
Wellington City, in terms
The second part of the report
summarises key indicators of growth
for the North Shore. The North
population, the average household
size is lower than the regional
average - this points to an older
Shore’s population has grown by population. Between 2006 and 2011
of average household more than 20,000 residents between an additional 5,900 households will
incomes. 2001 and 2006 and is estimated reside on the North Shore and by
at 220,300 - approximately 16% of 2026 the North Shore will be host
the regional total. The population to an additional 27,300 households.
of the North Shore is projected This is the equivalent of adding the
to grow at 1.22% per annum city of Palmerston North to North
between 2006 and 2011, and this Shore in 20 years. In the regional
growth is forecast to accelerate context, the North Shore will capture
to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. 13.3% of new households in the
The projected growth is faster than 2006-2011 growth period and 14.4%
projected New Zealand growth, of new households in the 2011 to
but slower than regional growth 2026 period.
which is expected to be between
North Shore City is wealthy in both
1.4% and 1.5% between 2006 and the regional and national contexts.
2016. Based on Statistics New The median household income is
Zealand projections, North Shore’s
$69,100 (Census 2006), the highest in
population is expected to be in the
the region (regional average $63,400)
region of 270,000 by 2026.
while the national average is
The City is home to approximately $51,400. North Shore City is second
78,000 households, or 16.9% of the only to the central government
Auckland regional households. Given dominated Wellington City, in terms
that the City is home to 16% of the of average household incomes.
HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

North Shore City 70,800 77,300 83,200 90,100 97,200 104,600
Auckland Region 419,400 466,700 511,200 559,900 609,300 659,400
New Zealand 1,439,800 1,558,300 1,654,000 1,753,100 1,847,800 1,938,300

2.1 Employment
From 2001 to 2007 the number
of employees on the North Shore
growing importance of the North
Shore as a business centre in the
Auckland and national contexts.
The North Shore economy
“ The report indicates
that North Shore City
is becoming a more
attractive place to locate a
increased from 66,700 to 86,100 – a
net gain of 19,400 or approximately
provides more than 10% of regional larger business.
employment opportunities
2,800 jobs per year. This growth
and is increasingly becoming
accounted for 17.8% of the new
an employment and business
jobs created in the Auckland region.
destination. Further, the number
During the same period, the City
of businesses in the North Shore
captured only 13.7% of household
expressed as a percentage of the
growth, meaning that in recent times total of businesses in the region,
the North Shore economy has been has also increased, from 16.3%
creating jobs at a significantly in 2001 to 16.9% in 2007. In a
higher rate than household and labour-constrained market place (as
population growth (30% faster). experienced over the recent past)
While the annual rate of employment this growth in employment indicates
creation fluctuated, the average rate that the North Shore was a more
at which employment grew (taking favourable location to establish
the base into account) on the North businesses and to work (compared
Shore was higher than either the to competing employment centres
Auckland or New Zealand rates. This such as the Auckland Central
suggests that the North Shore is Business District). It also indicates
becoming a greater contributor to that businesses locating on the
both these economies and moving North Shore are growing in size (on
quickly to a more employment self average) and/or that North Shore City
sufficient state. The comparatively is becoming a more attractive place
faster rate of growth highlights the to locate a larger business.
North Shore as % of Auckland Region
2001 2006 2007

Employment 12.9% 13.6% 13.7%

2.2 Economic Output national perspective the North Shore
economy captures approximately
Business on the North Shore 5% of economic output and
plays a key role in the regional value added. This contribution is
and New Zealand economies, and generated with a proportionally
in generating wealth for North lower employment base (c.f. 4.4%
Shore households. North Shore of national employment being
City accounts for approximately located on the North Shore) implying
13.5% of economic activity in the businesses that add value at a
Auckland region (in terms of both higher than average rate locate here.
value added and output). From a Growth rates (see the accompanying
figure) of value added and output
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7
were higher than national levels but
3.5% marginally below regional rates. In
3.0% terms of employment growth
2.5% North Shore City grew faster
2.0%
than both the country as well as
1.5%
1.0%
Auckland region.
0.5% The North Shore’s performance is
0.0%
Output Value added Employment (ECs) comparatively better than the national
NZ 2.10% 1.62% 2.26% trends but only outperforms the
ARC 2.41% 2.41% 2.42% regional economy in employment
NS 2.12% 2.12% 2.94% opportunities created.
“ The key growth industries

are high technology,
education, sports, health
and professional business
utilising advanced information
and communication technologies.
This sector includes niche
manufacturing, the marine industry,
including services such as computer
consulting and data processing
activities.
The targeted business sectors
ICT and machinery and equipment
services. capture an increasing share
manufacturing.
of North Shore (and regional
• Education – predominantly the and national) employment
2.3 Targeted Business tertiary sector but includes other opportunities, with almost a third
Sectors post school education providers, (28%) of North Shore employment
both public and private. in the targeted sectors. These
Targeted business sectors have sectors also account for a quarter
• Sports – based around large
been selected on the basis (26%) of economic output and 25%
organisations such as Harbour Sport
that North Shore City has a of economic value added.
and the Millennium Centre with its
comparative advantage in these
high performance focus. With reference to productivity, these
sectors and that they have the
sectors tend to have a value added per
capability to transform the • Health – hospitals, medical
employee ratio ($/FTE) that is higher
economy, drive economic growth specialists and the information
than other sectors of the economy.
and wealth creation for all North technology associated with the
Furthermore, the value-added per
Shore households. health sector.
employee (total economy) in the North
They comprise: • Financial, Business & Professional Shore is higher than the value-added
Services – service providers to per employee in both the New Zealand
• High Technology – a broad range
the financial and business sectors and the Auckland region contexts.
of enterprises developing or
10
3 Conclusion
This report highlights the local Given that current planning
economy’s ability to drive growth policy is to intensify development
and deliver better standards of living within the metropolitan urban
to North Shore households through limits (MUL), it is essential that
wealth creation and employment the growth of North Shore City’s
opportunities. economy is managed – with a
focus on the attraction, growth and
Significant additional value added is
retention of knowledge-intensive,
generated in the City, and significant
employee rich enterprises.
growth in local employment is
forecast. Growth in particular skill- Consequently, Enterprise North
sets and occupations is required to Shore is poised to assist growth
sustain output expansion. Capacity in the targeted sectors and the
building must also be linked with economy overall. Programmes that
investment in infrastructure, services, optimise investment conditions and
plant, and new buildings to support address issues such as skilled labour
ongoing growth. requirements and other key factors
of production are paramount to the
future growth of the City.
4 Next steps
This research is ongoing and an
opportunity exists to participate in
the next round. To contribute to the
next report on North Shore City’s
Economic Future (due mid 2009),
please complete the Economic
Futures Survey at:
www.ens.org.nz/nsefsurvey
Note: the full report, a summary and
a copy of this executive summary can
be downloaded via this link:
www.ens.org.nz/nsefreport
Enterprise North Shore and Market
Economics Limited would like to
thank the North Shore City Council,
businesses and individuals from all
sectors who helped to make this
development of a future scenario
possible.
11
Economic Futures Report For
North Shore City

full report Tables, Indicators & Appendices
November 2008
Promoting North Shore

Economic Development
September 2008
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART 1: BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 1

1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION .................................................................................................... 1
1.1 OBJECTIVES & SCOPE .............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 APPROACH FOLLOWED ........................................................................................................... 2
1.3 INFORMATION SOURCES ........................................................................................................ 2
1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................... 3
2 THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE............................................................................... 4
2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES ...................................................................................................... 4
2.2 ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES ................................................................................. 8
2.3 ECONOMIC OUTPUT ............................................................................................................... 9
2.4 PRIORITY SECTORS ................................................................................................................ 10
2.5 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................... 14
2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 17
PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW .............................................................................. 18
3 THE ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’................................................................................................................ 18
3.1 RESULTS OF ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’- ECONOMY IN GENERAL .................................................. 19
3.2 TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE ....................................................... 20
3.2.1 VALUE ADDED ................................................................................................................... 20
3.2.2 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS ............................................................................................... 20
3.2.3 GROSS OUTPUT................................................................................................................. 21
3.2.4 OUTPUT & VALUE ADDED PER FTE ................................................................................... 21
3.2.5 SKILLS & OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE.............................................................................. 22
3.3 BUSINESS SURVEY – KEY FINDINGS ....................................................................................... 23
PART 3: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: TOTAL ECONOMY OVERVIEW ................................................................ 26
4 MODEL OUTCOMES ....................................................................................................................... 26
4.1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS (DEMAND) COMPONENTS .................................................................. 26
4.1.1 POPULATION – ‘LOCAL DEMAND’..................................................................................... 27
4.1.2 EXPORT INDUSTRIES ......................................................................................................... 28
4.2 ECONOMIC OUTPUTS............................................................................................................ 32
4.2.1 GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS.......................................................................................... 32
4.2.2 VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................ 34
4.2.3 EMPLOYMENT (FTE) PROJECTIONS................................................................................... 36
4.3 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ................................................................................................... 39
5 DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS.......................................................................................................... 47
6 LIST OF REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 56
7 APPENDIX 1.1: OVERVIEW OF EFM APPROACH ............................................................................ 57
8 APPENDIX 2.1: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS- CLASSIFICATION ................................................. 59
9 APPENDIX 2.2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS - DATA ................................................................. 60
10 APPENDIX 2.3: VALUE & NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS .......................................... 61
11 APPENDIX 4.1: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ............................................................. 63
12 APPENDIX 4.2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ EXPORT PER SECTOR ........................................................... 65
i
September 2008
13 APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES ...................................................................................... 66

14 APPENDIX 4.4: PROJECTED GROSS OUTPUT PER SECTOR............................................................. 67
15 APPENDIX 4.5: PROJECTED VALUE ADDED PER SECTOR ............................................................... 69
16 APPENDIX 4.6: PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – FULL TIME EQUIVALENTS (FTES) ............................ 71
17 APPENDIX 4.7: PROJECTED SIMPLE LOCATION QUOTIENTS ......................................................... 73
18 APPENDIX 4.8: PROJECTED SLQ QUADRANTS ............................................................................... 77
ii
September 2008
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 2-1: NORTH SHORE POPULATION STRUCTURE - 2006 ................................................................ 5
FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7 ....................................................................................... 10
FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY ................................................................ 13
FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY .......................................................... 13
FIGURE 2-5: UNEMPLOYMENT .............................................................................................................. 14
FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION ....................................................................................... 16
FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE) .......................... 16
FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF CLIENT BASE (% OF REVENUE GENERATED FROM A SPECIFIC AREA) ......... 24
FIGURE 3-2: LOCATION OF SUPPLIERS ................................................................................................... 25
FIGURE 4-1: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2021 .......................................................................................... 27
FIGURE 4-4: POPULATION GROWTH – 2006-2031 ................................................................................ 27
FIGURE 4-5: TOP 10 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – 2006/VALUE NZ$ .............................................................. 30
FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: EXPORTS – 2006-2011* ........................ 31
FIGURE 4-7:% VALUE ADDED BY LARGEST SECTORS .............................................................................. 35
FIGURE 4-8: FTE - PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................ 36
FIGURE 4-9: FTE STRUCTURE (% OF TOTAL FTE) .................................................................................... 38
FIGURE 4-10: SUMMARY OF SHIFT SHARE (SLQ & FTE) ......................................................................... 41
FIGURE 4-11: SHIFT SHARE FIGURES...................................................................................................... 42
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS .................................................................................................... 7
TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS .............................................................................................. 8
TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION ................................................................................................... 9
TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS .................................................... 11
TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE ....................................... 11
TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ % .............................................................................. 12
TABLE 3-1: CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20 INDUSTRIES, 2006 – 2031) ............. 19
TABLE 3-2: VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS ................................................................... 20
TABLE 3-3: EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED SECTORS)................................................................................... 20
TABLE 3-4: OUTPUT PER TARGETED SECTOR .......................................................................................... 21
TABLE 3-5: SUMMARY OF VALUE ADDED PER FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED SECTORS ......... 22
TABLE 3-6: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ............................................................................ 22
TABLE 4-1: EXPORT VOLUME & RANKING ............................................................................................... 29
TABLE 4-2: GROSS OUTPUT – SUMMARY OF TOP2006 15 SECTORS .......................................................... 33
TABLE 4-3: SUMMARY OF KEY VALUE ADDING SECTORS ....................................................................... 35
TABLE 4-4: FTE RANKINGS – MAIN MOVEMENTS ................................................................................... 37
TABLE 4-5: PROJECTED SECTORAL (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS (>1) .................................................... 39
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS .......................................................................................................................... 49
TABLE 5-2: TARGETED SECTORS – NORTH SHORE .................................................................................. 51
TABLE 5-3: TARGETED SECTORS – AUCKLAND REGION ........................................................................... 52
TABLE 5-4: TARGETED SECTORS: NEW ZEALAND .................................................................................... 53
TABLE 5-5: TARGETED SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (NORTH SHORE: AUCKLAND REGION) .................... 54
TABLE 5-6: TARGETED SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (AUCKLAND REGION: NEW ZEALAND) ................... 54
TABLE 5-7: TARGETED SECTORS: AREA BASED RATIOS ........................................................................... 55
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PART 1: BACKGROUND
1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION

North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local
authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre
creates many issues and challenges for the city. The purpose of this report is to describe, in terms of population and
economic growth out to 2031, one of a number of potential futures for North Shore City that is based on a ‘Future
Scenario’. The future described in this report is based on outputs of North Shore City’s’ Economic Futures Model,
assuming business-as-usual conditions ie. the current trends, industry interactions and dynamics and market forces
remain stable. It is envisaged that these outputs will provide Enterprise North Shore and the North Shore City Council
with a baseline future, from which strategic decisions can be made about the future profile of economic activity in the
city and economic development initiatives.
1.1 OBJECTIVES & SCOPE

Economic development and the measurement of impacts in the economy are difficult to gauge, due to the limited
availability and time lags associated with information releases. Economic Development Agencies (EDA) face a number
of issues around the monitoring and tracking of the economy and in isolating the impacts of their activities. In order
to assist Enterprise North Shore in overcoming these challenges, the following objectives were formulated and
addressed throughout this project:
1. To develop and provide a single source of information and monitoring of trends and key indicators of the North
Shore economy.
2. To provide a link between the interventions in key sectors and the measurement of growth in key sectors.
3. The ability to monitor ENS performance and report to stakeholders – NSCC, shareholders etc.
4. To outline the likely growth path of the North Shore within the context of the Auckland region over the medium
to long term (next 20 years).
5. The ability to assess quickly the economic impacts associated with potential new business to the North Shore with
the intention of:
a. Targeting the types of intervention which may be most appropriate
b. Supporting possible lobbying of funding from central, regional and local government, and
c. Guiding the communication between applicant and ENS.
Points 1 through 4 are addressed in this report. As the development of the information and monitoring of the key
trends is an ongoing process, the report outlines the result of the first stage with the emphasis on Point 4’s findings.
Point 5 mentioned above has been addressed through a separate process. This report provides a discussion of the
results of the modelling, a short interpretation of the results and detail around the city’s targeted business sectors.
Additionally a list of indicators with the current ‘levels’ is also included.
The aim of this report and the accompanying modelling was not to identify the latent development opportunities or
emerging strengths of the city’s economy. The shift share framework used in the review of the 48 sectors provides an
indication of the underlying sectoral trends, and ongoing monitoring and utilisation of this framework could assist in
identifying development potential (albeit at a high level).
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1.2 APPROACH FOLLOWED

Market Economics Limited followed a customised approach to develop and define the ‘Future Scenario’. This section
provides an overview of the methodology employed in creating North Shore City’s Economic Futures Model (EFM). It
can be noted that, while the study is concerned specifically with the North Shore, the methodology described in
Appendix 1.1 can, in principle, be applied to any other territory within New Zealand. The EFM model is based on a
multi-regional input-output model, and as such it is constrained by the limitations of input-output economics. These
are well documented in many elementary input-output texts, including:
• Richardson (1972),
• Blain and Miller (1985), and
• McDonald and Patterson (2004).
Readers are directed to these texts for further information. Importantly, one of the key assumptions incorporated
within the input-output model is that inter-industry interdependencies (expressed as relatives) remain constant
throughout the study period.
The scenario results reported here are derived from the use of the city’s Economic Futures Model (EFM). The EFM is a
multi-regional scenario model that traces the environment-economy implications of growth by economic sector and
households, typically over a 20-year timeframe.
Importantly, the EFM is premised on a ‘systems’ perspective; with a concerted effort in the model’s construction to
account for the highly interconnected and complex nature of economic change. In these regards, it can be noted that
the model is based on a multi-regional input-output framework that captures both the implications of growth
occurring within the specific economy under study (ie the North Shore City economy), as well as the wider economic
feedbacks between the study area and the rest of the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the input-output
mathematics utilised within the model calculate not only the direct effects of economic change for a given North
Shore sector, but also the indirect (ie upstream flow-on) and induced (ie resulting from consumer spending) effects
arising as a result of the change.
When interpreting the results of this study it is, however, important to keep in mind that no model can predict the
future – the best a model can do is to assess - and then only to a limited extent under restrictive assumptions and
possible implications of plausible scenarios. The ‘Future Scenario’ investigated in this report is one of a number of
plausible scenarios for North Shore City that might be investigated by using the EFM model. It is envisaged that the
results presented here will provide a baseline upon which to compare economic tradeoffs and implications resulting
from other ‘what-if’ scenarios.
1.3 INFORMATION SOURCES

A range of information sources have been consulted during the development of the EFM model and this report. For
the purposes of this report, the main sources accessed include:
• The North Shore Economic Futures Model

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)
• Economic and sectoral outlooks and commentaries as published by different financial institutions
• Statistics New Zealand Business Frame Data
• Statistics New Zealand Census information
• Market Economics In house databases.
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Various datasets have been used and developed throughout the project and are attached as appendices to the report.
Where applicable, the information has been synthesised and included in the Appendices. In the body of the report,
only extracts of the information are presented with suitable referencing to the applicable appendix contained in the
report. Where applicable, the sources of information accessed during the drafting of this report are referenced, and a
List of References is included at the end of this report.
1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE
The report consists of three main parts and the individual sections within the parts. The three main parts are used to
structure the report into the main elements, ie:
• Part 1: Background consists of two sections of which this introductory section is one:
o Section 2: contains a description of the North Shore area and provides a strategic perspective. An
indication of the demographic and economic features of the area is provided within the contexts of the
national and regional contexts.
• Part 2: ‘Future Scenario’ – Concise Overview provides a description of the future with a focus on the Targeted
Business Sectors:
o Section 3: presents and discusses the main findings of the EFM modelling with a focus on the ‘Future
Scenario’ and the targeted business sectors. The section also provides an overview of the economy in
general (under the ‘Future Scenario’), the projected occupational requirements and the highlights of the
business survey.
• Part 3: ‘Future Scenario’ – Sectoral Overview consists of two sections:

o Section 4 contains a detailed description of the modelling outcomes and uses the 48 sector classification
system. This scenario provides a detailed account of the projected economic performance of the North
Shore economy, according to the ‘Future Scenario’ conditions for sectoral domestic and export final
demand changes. The specific parameters focused on in this section include population and sectoral
characteristics such as employment per sector and the value added per sector. The 48 sector
classification system (which is consistent with the New Zealand System of National Accounts (NZSNZ) has
been used throughout the modelling activities. The section concludes with a summary of the shift share
analysis (based on the simple location quotient) for the 48 sectors.
o The report concludes with Section 5 which presents an inventory of indicators and measures. The
indicators focus firstly on the overall condition and context of the North Shore economy and, secondly,
on the targeted business sectors.
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2 THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE
The North Shore functions within a broader environment by way of imports, exports, labour movements and other
activities. The purpose of this section is to provide an overview of the recent trends experienced on the North Shore,
and to view these trends in the context of the broader region and economy (ie. the Auckland region and New
Zealand). The context presented, in essence, forms the basis for the assumptions used in the modelling activities
associated with the ‘Future Scenario’. Similarly, the assumptions form the basis for the targeting of the various
interventions. The focus of the section is to present a strategic perspective of the North Shore situation with an
emphasis on:
• The economic structure, sectoral performance highlights and interaction with the broader region.
• The employment situation vis-a-vis the use of employment (in terms of Full time equivalents and/or Employment
Counts) and the aggregate level of labour utilisation (unemployment).
• The demographic features such as the size of the population, the population structure and expected growth rates
according to age cohorts.
The section concludes with highlights of the salient features of the priority sectors associated with Enterprise North
Shore’s targeted business sectors. These sectors are:
• Information and Communications Technology sector

• Education sector
• Sport sector
• Health sector, and
• Financial and Professional Services sectors.
The context presented in the section is further augmented by a brief overview of selected resource-related indicators
such as:
• Land utilisation by the main economic sections

• Recent trends in the building consents issued by type.
Ultimately, this section does not strive to provide a detailed, in-depth discussion of the economic situation but to
highlight the situation in terms of the main drivers of the economy.
2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES
Population and its associated characteristics have an important role in economic development planning, as the local
populace acts as a source of labour (employees) as well as demand for goods and services (consumers). Additionally
the age profile of the population has implications for both the demand (consumer component) and the supply (of
labour). The movements over time of the demographic profile, and the competition between regions to 1) attract
suitably qualified labourers and, 2) the highest number of consumers (spending power), has important implications for
future economic activity.
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The North Shore (like other New Zealand regions, and developed countries in general) it is projected that North Shore
City will experience significant population ageing over the next 25 years. The population structure of the North Shore
is presented in the following figure.
In total, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older on the North Shore is projected to steadily increase over the
study period from 10.7% in 2006, to 19.0% in 2031. This ageing is marginally higher than the population ageing of
New Zealand as a whole, with the proportion of
persons aged 65 and older projected to increase FIGURE 2-1: NORTH SHORE POPULATION STRUCTURE - 2006
85+
to 21% by 2031. Like many other countries,
80-84
New Zealand’s ageing population is primarily 75-79
attributed to significant declines in fertility rates 70-74 Females
and family size, post World War II ie. post 65-69
60-64
Males
“Baby-boomers”.
55-59
50-54
The resultant ‘bulge’ in the age structure is 45-49
40-44
systematically progressing through the age
35-39
profile. The net effect of the movement 30-34
through the population is that the ‘younger” 25-29
1
generations tend to be smaller (in number 20-24
15-19
terms) with a further effect of lowering the
10-14
birth rates. While advances in medical and 5-9
health technologies are reducing mortality 0-4
rates, the births are comparatively lower, which -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
translates into a lower population growth rate.
In addition to the natural population growth rate, migration also has an influence on the population profile. Based on
the Statistics New Zealand (SNZ)
population projections, an outline of the
Re lationship between Age, Income & Public Investment
future levels of in-and-out migration for
At the 2001 census, the median annual income for a person aged 65 years and
the North Shore has been determined. The
over was around 70% of the median income for adults aged 15-64 years.
main observations regarding the net (Stats NZ)
migration are (under the medium growth
Older people are significant consumers of health and disability support
projections):
services, and make up a substantial proportion of total domestic consumption.
Public expenditure on health in 2001/02, for example, was estimated at:
a) A net loss of persons aged 20-29 years.
$949 per capita for persons under the age of 15,
b) A relatively stable position regarding
$1,329 for persons aged 15-64 years,
the 20-24 year cohort.
$3,643 for persons 65-74 years,
c) A net gain (via migration of 0.3% to
0.4% of the base) for the 25-29 year $6,863 for persons 75-84 years, and
age group. $13,568 for persons 85 years and over
(Ministry of Health, 2002).

The overall effect of the population growth
and the net ageing has, as mentioned, important implications for consumption levels and economic growth. For
example:
1
Referring the ‘Generation X’ and ‘Generation Y’
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• The young require intensive investment in education,
• “Mid-age” adults supply labour and savings, and
• The aged require health care and retirement income.
Therefore, when the relative size of each of these groups in a population changes, so does the relative intensity of
these economic behaviours (Bloom et al., 2002). As shown by Figure 2.1, the ‘population bulge’ on the North Shore is
currently situated around the 35 to 50 age group, which importantly tends to be the highest income-earning years of
people’s lives. In 2007 approximately a quarter (±25%) of the North Shore population was aged 19 years or less (< 19
years old) and approximately 12% was aged older than 65 years. Persons in the 65+ age group tend to have relatively
low incomes due to declining work participation, and this is likely to have important consequences in terms of their
ability to purchase goods and services. International research2 has shown that in this age profile, approximately 50%
of the expenditure profile is accounted for by changes in household demographics. The consumer demand element is
further strongly influenced by factors such as:
• Education levels and occupation.

• House ownership characteristics.
• Household size.
The age categories with the strongest consumer power (purchasing powers and the propensity to spend) are generally
between the ages of 45 and 55, with the peak around the 49-50-year age. The age profiles of the North Shore City are
evaluated in terms of the preceding to illustrate the relative movement associated with the age categories. The shifts
in the demographic profile have been included in the ‘Future Scenario’ projections and variables and parameters
applied are outlined in the subsequent section.
The North Shore’s population has grown by more than 20,000 persons between 2001 and 2006. Statistics New
Zealand estimates that the population as at June 30 2007 was 220,300 (approximately 16% of the regional total).
North Shore City is located in the Auckland region, which captured almost 50.2% of the New Zealand growth from
2001 to 2006. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011,
and the growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. The projected growth is faster than the
projected New Zealand growth, but is slower than the Auckland regional growth which is expected to grow at
between 1.4% and 1.5% between 2006 and 2016. Both the Auckland region and the North Shore’ population are
expected to grow at almost double the rate of the national population.
On average, North Shore City’s population is older than the Auckland regional population. The 2006 Census counted
the median age to be 35.9 for North Shore City and 33.9 years for the region as a whole – meaning the rest of the
region is lower still. An older population has lower fertility rates than a younger one, meaning the demographics of
the city point to a lower growth future than the rest of the region. The median age in North Shore City is the same as
the nation as a whole.
Based on the projected growth rates, the North Shore population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 people by
2026. The North Shore is home to approximately 78,000 households, or 16.9% of the Auckland regional households.
Given that the city is home to 16% of the population, the average household size in the city is lower than the regional
average - again this point to an older population.
A summary of the household growth for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand is presented in Table
2-1.
2
Fernández-Villaverde, J and Krueger, D.
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TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
North Shore City 70,800 77,300 83,200 90,100 97,200 104,600
Auckland Region 419,400 466,700 511,200 559,900 609,300 659,400
New Zealand 1,439,800 1,558,300 1,654,000 1,753,100 1,847,800 1,938,300
Between 2006 and 2011, an additional 5,900 households will reside in the North Shore. By 2026, the North Shore will
host an additional 27,300 households (between 2006 and 2026). This is the equivalent of adding the city of
Palmerston North to the North Shore in 20 years.
In the regional context (Auckland region), the North Shore will capture 13.3% of the new households in the 2006-2011
growth period and 14.4% of the new households in the 2011 to 2026 period. A defining characteristic of North Shore
3
City’s household formation is decreasing household size, ie households are expected to become smaller . The
reduced size of the households is influenced by the shifts in population profile (age structure). And, while the
population total is expected to grow, the change in the population structure has wide-ranging implications for
education, social service provision and employment provision within the city.
The following table indicates shifts in the population structure and highlights the declining proportion of the
population within the Potentially Economic Active (PEA) segment – those in the prime working age ranges of 19 – 65
years. The potentially economically active population only provides an indication of the likely labour force and the
relative size of this segment to the overall population. However, the proportional shift in the PEA highlighted in the
preceding text does not equate to
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT
an absolute decline in the
segment which is actually 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
<19 26.3% 25.3% 24.5% 23.7% 22.9%
expected to increase (in number
>65 11.9% 13.7% 15.2% 17.0% 19.0%
terms) from approximately
% 38.1% 39.0% 39.7% 40.8% 41.9%
143,200 (in 2011) to 167,700 by
2026 - an increase of some 24,500
– roughly the equivalent of one working-age person per additional household over the same time period.
Ageing of the population influences (directly) the economy through the availability of labour to participate in the
economy, and secondly (indirectly) through the consumption patterns and effects. In total, the proportion of persons
aged 65 and older on the North Shore is projected to steadily increase over the study period from 10.7% in 2006 to
19.0% in 2031. This ageing is marginally higher than the population ageing of New Zealand as a whole, with the
proportion of persons aged 65 and older projected to increase to 21% by 2031. By including the proportion of the
population which is younger than 19, the share of the population that falls within the potential economically active
cohort is expected to decline from 61.9% in 2006 to 58.1% in 2026.
North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local
authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre
creates many opportunities, issues and challenges for the city.
3
The households becoming smaller relates to the number of individuals in the households and not the size of the
residence per se.
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2.2 ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES

The economic features of the North Shore are discussed by providing an indication of the main economic sectors in
the area, and by placing these sectors in context in terms of their relative contribution towards the regional
(Auckland) and national (New Zealand) economies. Similarly, employment by sector is also reviewed.
In 2007, 13% of all the employment opportunities in the Auckland region were located on the North Shore and almost
5% of the New Zealand employment opportunities were located within the city. This was a proportional increase in
the employment opportunities located on the North Shore. More specifically, the increase between 2001 and 2007
was from 12.9% (from a regional perspective) and from 4.1% (from a national perspective). With reference to the
share of business units located on the North Shore, a similar distribution is evident:
• Regional share2007 16.9% (2001 = 16.3%).

• National share2007 5.3% (2001 = 4.9%).
Historic trends in employment levels (actual employment) are shown in Table 2-2. Note that the table outlines the
actual employment counts and should not be confused with the potentially active population discussed earlier.
TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
North Shore City 66,700 70,900 74,100 78,500 81,700 83,500 86,100
Auckland Region 518,200 532,000 553,600 578,900 598,700 612,200 627,100
New Zealand 1,612,200 1,661,600 1,716,500 1,785,500 1,844,700 1,880,800 1,923,300
North Shore % of region 12.9% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7%
North Shore % of NZ 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5%
From 2001 to 2007 the number of employees on the North Shore has increased from 66,700 to 86,100 – a net gain of
19,400 or approximately 2,800 jobs per year. In the regional context, the growth accounted for 17.8% of the new jobs
created in the Auckland region. During the same period, the city captured only 13.7% of the household growth. This
means that in recent times the North Shore economy has created jobs at a significantly higher rate than household
and population growth (30% faster).
While the annual rate of employment creation varied, the annual rate at which employment grew (taking the base
into account) on the North Shore was larger than either the Auckland or New Zealand rates. This suggests that the
North Shore is becoming a greater contributor to both these economies, and is moving quickly to a more employment
self-sufficient state. The comparatively faster rate of growth highlights the growing importance of the North Shore as
a business centre in the Auckland (and therefore national) North Shore % of Auckland Region
context. 2001 2006 2007
Employment 12.9% 13.6% 13.7%
The North Shore economy provides more than 10% of the
regional employment opportunities, and is increasingly becoming an employment and business destination. The share
of Auckland regional employment provided on the North Shore increased from 12.9% in 2001 to 13.9% in 2007.
Further, the number of businesses in the North Shore expressed as a percentage of the total of businesses in the
region has also increased, but not as fast as employment (from 16.3% in 2001 to 16.9% in 2007). The mismatch
between these growth rates implies that the businesses in the North Shore’s employment requirements have grown
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comparatively faster than the employment in the broader Auckland region. This indicates that the North Shore’s
businesses are growing comparatively faster than the region as a whole. In a labour-constrained market place (as
experienced over the past period) the growth in employment could be interpreted as meaning that the North Shore
was a more favourable location to work – compared to the competing employment centres of others, such as the
Auckland Central Business District. This implies that businesses locating on the North Shore are growing in size (on
average) and that the North Shore is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
2.3 ECONOMIC OUTPUT

Apart from the employment opportunities, the value of the business activity on the North Shore plays a key role in the
Auckland regional and New Zealand economies, and in generating wealth for North Shore households. The North
Shore accounts for approximately 13.5% of the economic activity in the Auckland region (in terms of both value added
and output). It is important to focus on Gross Geographic Product (GGP)4 or value added as the key measure of
economic contribution, as this is the ‘truer’ measure of value added within the economy. Value added – as an
indicator - removes the value of inputs created outside of the economy which therefore do not create local value in
their production.
From a national (ie New Zealand) perspective, the North Shore economy captures approximately 5% of economic
output and value-added. This contribution is generated with a proportionally lower employment base (c.f. 4.4% of
national employment being located on the North Shore). Recent trends in the economic contribution of the North
Shore to the region and New Zealand is reflected in TABLE 2-3.
TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION

2004 2006 2007
North Shore as % of Region
Output 13.5% 13.4% 13.4%
Value Added 13.8% 13.7% 13.6%
North Shore as % of New Zealand
Output 4.9% 4.9% 4.8%
Value Added 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%
It is estimated that economic activity in the North Shore economy generated $7,430 m in GDP in 2006 ($7,999m once
final demand contribution is added). In addition to this contribution, the comparative growth rates as experienced
over the short term are reflected in Figure 2-2. The North Shores’s performance is comparatively better than the
national trends, but only outperforms the regional economy in employment opportunities created. It is stressed that
the accompanying figure reflects the trends in the ‘overall economy’ and does not:
• Reflect the longer term trends or outlooks.

• The relative performance of the ‘key sectors’ within the North Shore economy.
The key targeted sectors are discussed in the following section with the emphasis on providing the context of these
sectors within the North Shore economy.
4
GGP is technically similar to gross domestic product (GDP) with the area defined being the only difference. GDP
refers to the domestic ie. the country as a whole, while GGP relates to a specific area/region such as the North Shore.
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FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Output Value added Employment (ECs)
NZ 2.10% 1.62% 2.26%
ARC 2.41% 2.41% 2.42%
NS 2.12% 2.12% 2.94%
2.4 PRIORITY SECTORS

Growth, employment and activity trends in key sectors within the North Shore economy and the main implications of
these trends have been investigated. The targeted business sectors have been selected by Enterprise North Shore and
North Shore City Council’s economic development division on the basis that North Shore City has a comparative
advantage in these sectors and that they have the capability to:
• Transform the entire economy, and

• Drive growth and wealth creation for all North Shore households.
These sectors comprise:
• High Technology – a broad range of enterprises utilising advanced information and communication technologies
in their operational process. This sector includes niche manufacturing, the marine industry and machinery and
equipment manufacturing.
• Education – primarily tertiary sector but includes other post-school education providers
• Sports – based around large organisations such as Harbour Sport and the Millennium Centre with its high
performance focus
• Health – hospitals, medical specialists and the information technology associated with the health sector
• Financial, Business & Professional Services – service providers to the financial and business sectors.
These sectors capture an increasing share of the North Shore (and regional and national) employment opportunities,
with approximately 28% of the North Shore employment in these sectors. Table 2-4 outlines the recent trends in the
employee counts for the targeted business sectors for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand.
In order to estimate the value of gross output, value-added and employment generated by the targeted business
sectors, the 6-Digit ANZSIC classifications were used. As each 6D ANZSIC falls within one of the 48 modelled sectors, it
is possible to apportion the 6D ANZSIC to targeted business sectors based on the 48 sectors. The apportionment is
based on employment within the main 48 sectors of the targeted business groupings ie. the share of the employment
within each of the 6D ANZSIC categories that are associated with the targeted business sectors, is included into a table
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that references the 48 sectors. A full list of the 6D ANZSIC codes associated with the targeted business sectors is
presented in Appendix 2.1
TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
North Shore
High Technology 2,561 2,508 2,678 2,818 2,897 3,024 2,801
Education 4,748 5,568 5,870 6,270 6,350 6,380 6,895
Sports 860 975 1,140 1,145 1,190 1,275 1,270
Health 4,300 4,670 4,515 5,050 5,605 6,265 6,260
Financial & Professional Services 7,559 8,215 9,006 9,740 10,106 10,993 12,181
Not-targeted 46,624 48,940 50,898 53,514 55,507 55,563 56,714
All Industries 66,652 70,876 74,107 78,537 81,655 83,500 86,121
Region
High Technology 21,388 21,388 21,814 22,193 22,073 22,407 22,882
Education 37,844 37,844 45,314 46,705 47,597 47,033 50,293
Sports 4,912 4,912 5,617 5,585 5,849 6,277 6,424
Health 27,618 27,618 30,285 31,107 32,487 34,574 35,156
Not-targeted 360,122 360,122 377,736 394,288 405,688 411,659 418,761
All Industries 518,231 518,231 553,603 578,870 598,736 612,247 627,072
New Zealand
High Technology 51,340 53,020 52,890 53,165 52,930 52,990 53,410
Education 132,560 137,980 145,940 149,480 150,580 147,940 155,630
Sports 14,740 16,170 16,840 17,540 18,030 18,990 19,900
Health 103,320 108,980 110,440 113,710 115,980 119,300 120,440
Non-targeted 1,159,777 1,192,982 1,230,093 1,280,518 1,323,720 1,348,776 1,371,621
Source: Market Economics Limited calculations based on Statistics New Zealand
It is evident from the preceding table that the city’s targeted business sectors play an important role in the North
Shore context vis-à-vis employment. These sectors also account for approximately 26% of the North Shore economic
output and 25% of the economic value-added. The following table provides an indication of the size of these sectors
in terms of the economic output.
TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE

TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2006 2007* 2008*
High Technology 830,880 851,571 872,862
Education 67,187 68,703 70,253
Sports & Performance 116,642 119,753 122,948
Financial & Professional 1,807,717 1,854,374 1,902,265
Health 378,930 386,332 393,880
Total (Targeted) 3,201,355 3,280,734 3,362,208
* Estimated
With reference to the High Technology sector, the North Shore sector outperformed both the Auckland and New
Zealand sectors in the short term. By comparing the contribution (in terms of output) of the different business sectors
toward the aggregate economies, it is clear that the Financial and Professional services dominate over the other
sectors. In North Shore City, this sector captures close to 60% of the total targeted business sectors’ output, which is
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higher than the New Zealand (50%) situation and marginally lower than the regional level (60%). Table 2-6 illustrates
the movements in the individual targeted business sectors contribution.
TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ %

SECTOR 2006 2007* 2008*
High Technology 25.95% 25.96% 25.96%
Education 2.10% 2.09% 2.09%
Sports & Performance 3.64% 3.65% 3.66%
Financial & Professional 56.47% 56.52% 56.58%
Health 11.84% 11.78% 11.71%
Total (Targeted) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
The Financial and Professional sectors’ relative dominance of the targeted business sectors highlights the role of the
North Shore in the ‘service economy’ both in terms of provision of commercial services and household services (given
the high share of activity in the retail and household services sectors). It also underlines the growth potential of the
other targeted business sectors already identified as important to North Shore City’s future.
The second largest targeted business sector is the High Technology sector, which captured 25.95% of the targeted
business sectors’ output in 2007. The value output of high technology has grown comparatively faster than the other
targeted business sectors, and this sector’s importance in the North Shore context (targeted business sectors) is
expected to increase in the immediate future. All the targeted business sectors are expected to grow, with the sport
and performance component expected to grow the fastest at 2.67% in the 2006-2011 period, followed by the high
technology- and financial and professional services sectors (forecast to grow at 2.51% and 2.58% respectively). Over
the long term (2006-2031), the targeted business sectors are projected to grow at 2.4% per annum – which is faster
than the projected 2.17% national growth rates for the targeted business sectors. However this is marginally slower
than the 2.5% forecast for the Auckland region’s growth.
With reference to value-added per employee, the targeted business sectors tend to have a higher value added per
employee than the other sectors of the economy. The following two figures indicate firstly the value added per
employment in the high technology sector of the North Shore, Auckland region and the overall New Zealand economy.
The second figure is a comparison of the value added (total industry) for the North Shore, the Auckland region and
New Zealand.
The targeted business sectors on the North Shore have a higher value added per FTE than the aggregate economy
and, furthermore, the value added per employee (total economy) on the North Shore is higher than the value added
per employee in both the New Zealand and the Auckland region contexts. With reference to the value added per
employee, the Auckland region and the North Shore have similar characteristics for the overall economy with both
regions (although growing) expanding comparatively slower than the national levels. A driver of the value-added per
FTE in the high technology sector (Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4) is a result of North Shore having a relative concentration
in some of the sub-sectors constituting the high technology sector as defined earlier, including:
• Telecommunication Services
• Professional and Scientific Equipment Manufacturing
• Electrical Equipment Manufacturing
• Machine Tool and Part Manufacturing
• Ship- and boat building.
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FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
North Shore Auckland NZ
80,000
75,000
2006 2007 2008
FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
North Shore Auckland NZ
20,000
-
2006 2007 2008
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2.5 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
The North Shore economy functions in a wider economic environment, and it is necessary to consider this external
environment and see its context within the environment in which North Shore businesses trade. The following section
is based on economic and sectoral commentaries of different financial institutions. The intention of the following is to
sketch the outlook and the broader environment.
It can be said that the effects of a slowing global economy and tighter lending conditions are expected to influence the
North Shore economy directly and indirectly through lower demand for goods and services produced, and higher costs
for inputs to the production process. The higher costs of capital are likely to influence companies’ ability to expand
and take advantage of opportunities. New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) is predicting a slow
weakening of the New Zealand dollar – especially against the Australian dollar buoyed by continued strong mineral
commodity returns that do not look like reducing in the short or medium term. Inflation pressures that remain within
the New Zealand economy are likely to provide upward pressure on the dollar versus the US dollar. However, the
New Zealand Reserve Bank in has moved earlier than most expected to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR), which
should move the dollar downwards. New Zealand’s current account deficit is expected to improve over the medium
term, potentially reducing the risk premium associated with New Zealand dollar denominated investments and
helping to maintain its strength. While the dollar is not expected to achieve the highs of recent months, it is likely to
remain volatile in the short term. NZIER is predicting an exchange rate of more than 70 cents (US) for the medium
term.
Apart from the constraints on the economy discussed above, opportunities will emerge for some targeted business
sub-sectors. For example, the Advertising Services (L785100) might experience an increase in work as firms aim to
increase market exposure and attempt to build on existing branding images in times of constrained demand. These
activities have strong linkage with the Commercial Art and Display Services (L785200) sector, which is also a targeted
sub-sector. Another example of a sub-sector which could stand to benefit from the credit crunch and the slowing
economy is the Business Management Services (785500) sub-sector. The increased financial pressures faced by
business entities are expected to trigger a drive to lower production and input costs whilst increasing productivity.
The expected slowdown in the New Zealand economy is currently manifesting through reduced levels of business
confidence and other indicators, such as lower consumer spending (retail sales) and an increase in unemployment -
although from historically low figures (Refer to Figure 2-5). Other factors that will have an impact on the North Shore
economy are inflation and interest rates reducing
the purchasing power of domestic households FIGURE 2-5: UNEMPLOYMENT
and businesses.
According to the Westpac Economic Overview

(Q2), inflation has become a dominant force
around the globe and is also influencing New
Zealand. According to the Westpac modelling,
inflation is expected to reach 5.5% later in 2008,
primarily as a result of high and rising food and
energy prices. The rising cost of living is taking a
toll on consumers and businesses (as reflected by
business confidence and retail spending figures)
and investment activity has all but dried up.
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Business confidence about where the economy will be in 12 months’ time has, after improving for three months in a
row, gone backwards over the past month5. In the BNZ survey a net 43.9% of respondents said they expect the
economy to get worse. This is a deterioration from a net 29.8% pessimistic in late May, but is still below the recent
peak for pessimism in March of a net 62.3%. The results reflect the further increasing of petrol prices in recent times,
along with weaker sales activity reported by many respondents.
The slowing of the economy and the short term outlook for the global economy has resulted in the Offical Cash Rate
(OCR) being lowered (24 July 2008). The rationale for the lowering of the OCR from 8.25 percent to 8.0 percent was
based on the risk that the domestic economy will slow even further. The Reserve Bank indicated that “Recent oil and
food price increases mean that annual CPI inflation should peak around 5 percent in the September quarter of this
year. The weaker economy is expected to reduce pressure on resources, making it more difficult for firms to pass on
costs and for higher wage claims to be agreed.” Further reductions are unlikely to be made rapidly as significant
inflationary pressures exist in the economy such as: high oil and commodity prices, a falling dollar raising import costs,
stimulatory tax reduction packages around the election aimed at low and middle income families who have a greater
propensity to increase spending in response.
A key area where impacts of OCR changes can be seen is in the construction sector. Residential construction activity
has weakened from a high base over recent months. High interest rates, credit tightening and low net migration have
reduced housing demand. Sales of existing houses have halved over the past 12 months. Construction activity tends
to follow the trends of sales, with a lag of around six months. Residential building construction is expected to decline
through 2008 and into 2009, with a decline of around 18% over the two-year period. While the non-residential
construction activity is expected to fare better, credit tightening, low business confidence and the current softening in
domestic demand will see some projects delayed in the short term. Westpac expects economic output growth to slow
to 0.6% in the year ended December 2008, with the worst of the recession being experienced in the current (June
2008) quarter. Economic activity is expected to improve from the end of 2008, with growth rebounding to 2.8% in the
2009 calendar year. NZIER6 expects GDP growth to slow to 1.9% for the March 2009 year (down from 2.9% for the
March 2008 year). It expects GDP growth to bounce back relatively quickly, to average 2.9% growth annually between
2010 and 2012.
The following figure (see Figure 2-6) reflects the recent trends in the residential construction sector in terms of the
value and number of residential dwellings authorised (nationally). Additionally, the recent trend on the North Shore
of non-residential buildings consents is also reflected.
A review of the non-residential buildings approved in North Shore City (2000-2006) revealed the total value of
approvals was in excess of $760 million (of which 29% ($225 million) was related to the Property and Business Services
sector). The impacts of the increase in interest rates and the associated global slowdown are not evident in Figure
2-7; primarily as a result of the timeframes not allowing a direct comparison.
The expected slowdown in investment is important for the North Shore (and broader economically) as the decreasing
economic growth leads to decreasing investment which, in turn, leads to decreasing productivity growth and lower
competitiveness levels compared to the competitors.
5
Bank of New Zealand 7th July 2008
6
Quartely Predictions, June 2008, NZIER
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FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION

(# & $ OF DWELLING UNITS AUTHORISED – NEW ZEALAND
FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE)

300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Property & Business Services Education Wholesale Trade TOTAL
Refer Appendix 2.3: Value of Non Residential Consents for the data on which this figure is based
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2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The preceding section outlined the current situation on the North Shore from a wide perspective. While general
conclusions could be drawn from the preceding, the most obvious is that the North Shore’s targeted business sectors
have played a significant role in the North Shore context. This implies that investing in these sectors and encouraging
their growth will generate more wealth within the North Shore economy than focusing on the economy in general. In
addition, the flow-on effects through inter-industry linkages across the rest of the economy, help drive the overall
economy to a greater extent than other sectors.
The importance and dominance of financial and professional services in the North Shore economy have the potential
to expose the economy to shocks and wider external movements – such as the current financial slowdown ie the
Credit Crunch. The projections applied in the modelling of the North Shore economy and the inter-relationships with
Auckland region and New Zealand is informed by historic trends, and the influence of the slowdown in the market is
expected to filter through and affect the North Shore. While the economic modelling carried out with the Economic
Futures Model incorporates variables to deal with changing demand conditions, the purpose of the modelling is not to
predict/forecast the effects on the economy as a result of shocks, such as the credit crunch, or oil price movements.
The following section discusses the ‘Future Scenario’ future in greater detail and includes an analysis of the targeted
business sectors and the overall context of the North Shore economy.
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PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW
3 THE ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’
The second part of this report outlines the description of the ‘Future Scenario’ of the North Shore economy. This is
generated using a multi-regional input-output model of the economy developed specifically for Enterprise North
Shore and called the Economic Futures Model (EFM).
The key feature of North Shore’s EFM is that it establishes not only direct economic growth in key economic
industries, but also the indirect growth associated with flow-on effects. Growth in the Marine industry, for example,
will most likely result in growth in other industries, particularly through supply chain linkages. Furthermore, if
additional workers are required as a result of this growth, then additional expenditure by households will occur. This,
in turn, will result in further flow-on growth, particularly within services supporting households. The model
furthermore captures economic inter-linkages between North Shore City and New Zealand economies. In this way,
the implications of growth in key New Zealand industries on the North Shore economy are also captured.
The EFM works by taking estimates of future household consumption and export demand for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021,
2026 and 2031, and determining economic activity required to produce these demands – including all of the
associated flow on implications. Growth in household consumption is based on population projections, while
projections of export demand are derived using econometric analysis. The outcomes initially derived from these
projections are validated and adjusted as appropriate, based on primary research (the survey process is covered in a
subsequent section). The repercussionary or flow on implications are then calculated using input-output
7
mathematics , with growth rates by the 48 industries for each five-year period from 2006 to 2031 being the major
output. These growth rates, with productivity allowances, are then used to estimate the future economic implications
associated with growth. To date, the model has been set up to analyse only the ‘Future Scenario’ with a 20-year
outlook. The ‘Future ’assumes that:
a) The current economic interdependencies between industries within North Shore City will continue to prevail, and
b) Only crude judgements about technological change may be made.
It is important to restate the base position of North Shore City at this point, as the ‘Future Scenario’ is basically
derived from recent trends (outlined in the preceding sections) in growth and change within the city, combined with
anticipated growth in demands over the next 25 years.
North Shore City is one of the seven territorial authorities that make up the Auckland region. It is the third largest TA
in terms of population and recent growth (2001 – 2006) and is almost entirely urbanise, with only small pockets of
semi-rural land on its northern borders with Rodney District. The city is structured around a number of sub-regional
and suburban centres and employment areas (Takapuna, Albany, North Harbour Industrial Estate, and Wairau Valley).
The city has a long coastline with a large number of beaches on its eastern flank. Town centres have developed
behind most of the main beaches, as historically settlement patterns have favoured these locations.
7
Input-output tables have been widely used throughout New Zealand to estimate economic impact eg for events such as the America’s Cup and
the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
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Population: The total population of North Shore City at June 2007 was 220,300, or 5.2% of the total New Zealand
population (Statistics New Zealand, 2008). The city makes up 15.8% of the regional population, however it is not
growing as fast as the region overall (2.2% annual average between 2001 and 2006 compared with 2.4% for the
region). Recent growth is, however, almost 50% faster than the national average (2.25% versus 1.5%). As discussed
above, demographic characteristics such as an older average age and higher incomes are associated with lower
growth rates. This is offset to a certain extent by strong economic performance attracting population and a significant
share of migration.
The ‘Future Scenario’ is discussed by way of a summary of the terms of the economic activity; secondly a summary of
the targeted business sectors’ relative performance under the ‘Future Scenario’; and finally an extraction of the key
findings from the survey results.
3.1 RESULTS OF ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’- ECONOMY IN GENERAL
Current productive GDP generated within North Shore City is approximately $12.7bn (2006). This is expected to grow
by $8.8bn to some $21.7bn by 2031 in real terms (68% growth in total). The contribution to the North Shore economy
by the largest 20 sectors is ranked in Table 3-1. A full list of sectors and contributions is appended to this report.
TABLE 3-1: CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20 INDUSTRIES, 2006 – 2031)
2006 (Output $’m) 2031 (Output $’m)
# Sector $’m Sector $’m
1 Wholesale trade 894 Business svcs 1,756
2 Business svcs 883 Wholesale trade 1,423
3 Owner-occupied dwellings 843 Owner-occupied dwellings 1,252
4 Retail trade 559 Retail trade 887
5 Communication svcs 557 Real estate 856
6 Real estate 538 Communication svcs 836
7 Health & community svcs 387 Construction 647
8 Construction 340 Health & community svcs 586
9 Central government 272 Education 427
10 Education 262 Central government 406
11 Insurance 204 Machinery & equipment manuf 348
12 Finance 193 Finance 309
13 Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf 182 Insurance 307
14 Printing, publishing & recorded media 134 Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf 248
15 Personal & other community svcs 115 Printing, publishing & recorded media 221
16 Machinery & equipment manuf 113 Cultural & recreational svcs 213
17 Cultural & recreational svcs 109 Personal & other community svcs 198
18 Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf 96 Accommodation, restaurants & bars 192
19 Non-metallic mineral prod manuf 29 Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf 167
20 Accommodation, restaurants & bars 93 Svcs to finance & investment 148
The strongest growth in percentage terms occurs in the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sector from $113m
to over $348m value added by 2031 (208%). In terms of growth in value-added, the Business Services sector adds
some $873m in contribution to GGP over the next 25 or so years. Strong contributions are made by the Wholesale
sector ($529m) and Retail Trades ($324m). However, Business Services takes top spot off Wholesaling as the largest
contributor to GDP in the city (at almost $1.8bn), as the structure of the economy moves towards a more business
services orientated economy. The high contribution by Wholesale and Retail Trades, Health and Community Services
and the Education sector emphasises North Shore’s continuing consumption-led economy.
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3.2 TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE
The projected targeted business sector performances are highlighted by outlining the value-added, employment and
output forecasts for the individual sectors.
3.2.1 VALUE ADDED

The targeted business sectors are expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years or so. Table 3-2 highlights the
growth in contribution to GDP made by the sectors to 2031.
TABLE 3-2: VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS

NZ$'000 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 461,177 521,256 587,882 664,254 750,078 852,401
Education 54,668 61,136 68,022 74,908 82,002 89,096
Sports & Performance 61,592 70,580 81,054 92,049 104,529 118,654
Financial & Professional 1,071,232 1,214,177 1,374,036 1,549,351 1,743,376 1,958,799
Health 289,942 319,425 349,813 380,140 409,809 437,318
Total (Targeted) 1,938,611 2,186,574 2,460,806 2,760,701 3,089,794 3,456,269
North Shore (Total industry) 7,429,000 8,313,000 9,253,000 10,230,000 11,246,000 12,308,000
Targeted % of North Shore 26.10% 26.30% 26.59% 26.99% 27.47% 28.08%
Growth in these sectors sees their contribution to the total economy grow from 26% to 28% by 2031. The strongest
growth is expected to occur in the High Technology sector, with an annual average growth rate of 2.7%. The Financial
and Business Services sector is projected to grow at 2.44% - these growth rates are in line with the limited survey
responses from businesses in these sectors. In total the targeted business sectors are expected to be generating GDP
of $3.4bn in 2031, up from $1.9bn in 2008.
3.2.2 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS

Total employment in the targeted business sectors is expected to grow from 23,600 in 2006 to around 36,640 by
2031. The largest sector is Financial and Business Services sector, where growth of more than 7,600 employment
opportunities is expected by 2031.
TABLE 3-3: EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS)

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 4,245 4,713 5,217 5,790 6,451 7,230
Education 1,083 1,171 1,261 1,346 1,427 1,501
Sports & Performance 989 1,096 1,211 1,333 1,466 1,612
Financial & Professional 12,357 13,663 15,071 16,559 18,180 19,962
Health 4,928 5,257 5,584 5,874 6,127 6,333
Total (Targeted) 23,602 25,899 28,345 30,902 33,651 36,638
North Shore (Total) 83,500 95,424 103,413 111,299 119,209 127,150
In total the TBPA sectors under the ‘Future Scenario’ grow from 28.3% of the total North Shore City employment in
2006 to 28.8% by 2031. This implies faster growth here than elsewhere in the economy. The degree to which the
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targeted business sectors dominate the employment profile of the North Shore is highlighted by the preceding table,
with almost a third of the labour force being employed in the targeted business sectors. As expected, the relative
degree of concentration of the targeted business sectors in terms of employment on the North Shore is expected to
remain stable out to 2031 under the ‘Future Scenario’.
3.2.3 GROSS OUTPUT

In terms of total economic activity, the targeted business sectors are expected to grow from $3.2bn in Gross Output
terms to more than $5.7bn by 2031 (see Table 3-4). As a share of total North Shore activity, the sectors grow from
24.87% to 26.6% by 2031. The share of employment in the targeted business sectors (% of the total North Shore
employment base) is expected to remain relatively constant – around a quarter of the employment.
TABLE 3-4: OUTPUT PER TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR

NZ$'000 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 830,880 940,546 1,062,930 1,199,937 1,360,372 1,546,551
Education 67,187 75,116 83,463 92,017 100,781 109,545
Sports & Performance 116,642 133,053 152,434 173,381 196,936 223,542
Financial & Professional 1,807,717 2,053,666 2,324,309 2,619,925 2,949,092 3,314,878
Health 378,930 417,425 457,546 496,948 534,910 570,774
Total (Targeted) 3,201,355 3,619,806 4,080,682 4,582,208 5,142,090 5,765,290
North Shore (Total industry) 12,872,000 14,476,000 16,150,000 17,900,000 19,744,000 21,678,000
The largest growth in output is from the Financial and Professional Services sector, which is expected to continue to
dominate the total output of the North Shore (15% of the total and 57% of the targeted business sector total).
Between the Financial and Professional Services and the High Technology sectors, more than 80% of the targeted
business employment is captured (Table 3.3).
3.2.4 OUTPUT & VALUE ADDED PER FTE

The projected value added and output per FTE has been determined based on the information outlined in the
preceding sections. The value added per FTE is projected to grow for both the targeted business sectors and the
overall North Shore economy. The targeted business value added is projected to increase by $9,808/FTE (a
percentage movement of 11.6%) between 2006 and 2031.
The growth in productivity is driven by two factors. Firstly, the EFM assumes that in general there is an increase in
labour productivity over time. Projections (based on recent trends) indicate an average annual shift of 0.65% per FTE.
Secondly the ‘Future Scenario’ sees a higher concentration of employment in high value added sectors, raising the
overall average.
The anticipated movements and trends in the individual targeted business sectors of the North Shore are summarised
in Table 3-5.
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TABLE 3-5: SUMMARY OF VALUE ADDED PER FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS
2008 2031 Movement % Change AAGR*
High Technology 109,826 117,894 8,068 7.3% 0.31%
Education 51,411 59,347 7,936 15.4% 0.63%
Sports & Performance 63,262 73,618 10,356 16.4% 0.66%
Financial & Professional 91,135 98,126 6,991 7.7% 0.32%
Health 57,779 69,057 11,278 19.5% 0.78%
Total (Targeted) 84,528 94,336 9,808 11.6% 0.48%
*AAGR = Average Annual Growth Rate
The relative growth and movements in the Financial and Professional Services and the High Technology sectors
revealed the lowest overall growth in percentage terms but from a much higher base (almost 100% higher in some
instances). Therefore the productivity in these sectors in 2031 is still higher than that of the other targeted business
sectors. The Health sector is projected to have the largest change (an increase of $11,300 per FTE). The different
sectors’ internal characteristics influence the degree to which the value added per FTE can be developed and how the
improvements in productivity translate into additional GDP for North Shore overall.
3.2.5 SKILLS & OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE

The projected changes and movements in the output and value-added of the North Shore economy is directly linked
to and informed by the employment structure ie the occupational profile of the area. An additional set of outputs
from the EFM model (under the ‘Future Scenario’) is a disaggregation of employment into occupations. The
relationship between occupation structure and FTEs is not 1:1, as an FTE may be made up of two part-time workers.
However the occupation structure provides a robust way of assessing future skills requirements to achieve the
economic structures projected under the ‘Future Scenario’. Table 3-6 reflects the projected occupational structure for
the North Shore under this scenario. This table highlights the occupations which are associated with the targeted
business sectors.
TABLE 3-6: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE

OCCUPATIONS Occupation Projections Growth Rank
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006- 2006- Growth
%
2016 2031
Chief Executives, GM's and Legislators 5,217 5,722 6,231 6,746 7,267 7,808 1,014 2,591 18 3
Specialist Managers 10,962 12,024 13,092 14,150 15,207 16,282 2,130 5,320 20 1
Arts and Media Professionals 1,182 1,304 1,435 1,569 1,712 1,865 253 683 6 27
Bus., Human Res. & Marketing Prof. 7,089 7,777 8,478 9,188 9,931 10,706 1,389 3,617 16 2
Design, Engineering, Science & Trans Prof. 3,498 3,877 4,268 4,675 5,110 5,581 770 2,083 3 5
Education Professionals 5,250 5,617 5,984 6,317 6,615 6,869 734 1,619 41 10
Health Professionals 3,603 3,857 4,116 4,352 4,566 4,751 513 1,148 40 15
ICT Professionals 3,006 3,321 3,655 4,004 4,379 4,783 649 1,777 4 7
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals 1,866 2,038 2,218 2,400 2,585 2,777 352 911 19 21
Engineering, ICT and Science Tech's 2,199 2,422 2,643 2,872 3,112 3,356 444 1,157 14 14
Electrotech & Teleco Trades Workers 1,161 1,307 1,456 1,602 1,746 1,895 295 734 2 26
Health and Welfare Support Workers 576 624 673 728 781 829 97 253 30 39
Carers and Aides 2,241 2,409 2,582 2,745 2,896 3,035 341 794 38 24
Sports and Personal Service Workers 1,923 2,117 2,317 2,518 2,727 2,956 394 1,033 10 18
Total Other Occupations 51,015 55,752 60,499 65,241 69,975 74,659 9,484 23,644
Total Employment 87,549 95,638 103,617 111,492 119,381 127,303 16,068 39,754
Source: North Shore Economic Futures Model
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In total, the ‘Future Scenario’ sees approximately 127,000 FTEs by 2031 working on the North Shore. This represents
growth of some 39,800 from the 2006 position (46% growth). Total occupations in North Shore businesses increase at
approximately the same rate (a 47% increase from 101,000 to 148,000). The most significant growth in occupation
occurs in the Hospitality sector where in total 68% more workers are required by 2031 than in 2006. This again points
to the consumption base of the North Shore economy, and is driven strongly by local population growth and increases
in consumption per household. However, in terms of percentage growth the next greatest increases are expected in:
• Electronic Technology and Telecommunications workers (63%),

• Design, Engineering, Science and Transport professionals (60%),
• ICT professionals (59%), and
• Arts and Media professionals (58%).
These are key occupations for the city’s targeted business sectors, and are required in large numbers in order for the
North Shore economy to achieve even the ‘Future Scenario’. In terms of actual numbers the most growth is required
in Specialist Managers, with the economy requiring a further 5,300 by 2031. This is followed by Business and
Marketing professionals (3,620), CEOs and Legislators (2,590) and Design and Engineering professionals (2,080).
Significant growth in the Health and Education professions is required, with an additional 1,150 and 1,620 workers
respectively to meet the growth needs of the city. In addition, ageing of the current workforce that is potentially
uneven across different occupation groups is likely to intensify the requirements in certain areas (notably in the health
professions).
A full set of occupations associated with the ‘Future Scenario’ growth future is included in Appendix 4.1.
3.3 BUSINESS SURVEY – KEY FINDINGS
During the initial stage of this project, an internet-based survey was carried out to inform the ‘Future Scenario’ with
information provided by businesses of actual growth and future employment intentions for the next five and 10-year
periods. Invitations to participate in the survey were sent to businesses on Enterprise North Shore’s mailing list, and
links to the website were published in the Enterprise magazine. As of July 2008 end, the response has been limited.
In total, around 100 surveys have been completed sufficiently to draw useful information on certain key sectors.
Therefore the key points drawn from the survey and described below must be treated with some caution. They have
been included to add context to the ‘Future Scenario’ outputs, rather than as a means to either calibrate or verify
these outputs. In the long term it is anticipated that alternative forms of data collection from North Shore businesses
will provide sufficient information to calibrate the near term outlook from the model.
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8
KEY POINTS FROM THE SURVEY
• ICT sector respondents are anticipating more than 100% growth over the next five years and are anticipating the
industry to be 10 times its current size in 10 year’s time.
• Strong growth is expected in the Health sector (61% in five years) and Business Services (47% in five years).
• ICT sector generates the largest share of sales from exports of all groups, with 22% of revenue generated from
export activities – a breakdown of the location of the sector’s revenue generation by area is reflected in Figure
3-1. Financial and Business Services also report strong international earnings, with some 17% of sales from
overseas. This is followed by the Manufacturing sector at 16%.
• The Education and Health sectors are (unsurprisingly) strongly focused on local demand, with 85% and 31% of
sales respectively drawn from North Shore City.
• The Financial and Business Service sector provides significant services to the rest of the Auckland region, with 24%
of sales drawn from there (although response in this category is low so this interpretation of data may not be
truly representative).
• North Shores’s manufacturing sector looks to be particularly strongly linked into the rest of the Auckland region –
providing intermediate inputs into further processing and final demand. In total 37% of its sales are to the rest of
the Auckland region.
• Most industries are linked strongly with other businesses in North Shore City for their purchases (50% or more of
upstream purchases), with the exception of Manufacturing where only 5% of purchases are made locally – see
Figure 3-2. Imports are particularly high for the Manufacturing sector, accounting for some 64% of total
intermediate inputs.
• North Shores’s Education sector is strongly linked with the rest of the New Zealand economy, with the highest
share of purchases made outside of Auckland region (31%). This is most likely to be the purchase of central
government services.
FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF CLIENT BASE (% OF REVENUE GENERATED FROM A SPECIFIC AREA)
8
CAVEAT: The observations and implications identified from the survey are from a severely limited number of
responses and are indicative only.
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FIGURE 3-2: LOCATION OF SUPPLIERS
The ‘Future Scenario’ highlights the potential the targeted business sectors have within the North Shore economy to
drive growth and deliver better standards of living to city households through wealth creation and employment
opportunities under a ‘no change’ outlook. Even so, the ‘Future Scenario’ projection highlights strong growth for the
North Shore economy. Significant additional value added is generated in the city, and significant growth in local
employment is foreshadowed even before the effects of attraction policies and targeted business assistance is
incorporated.
The modelling highlights significant growth in particular occupations required to sustain the output growth, and this
information can be used to help inform planning for education and training programmes at the city’s tertiary
institutes. However, it is also clear that the future will not be as indicated under the ‘Future Scenario’ conditions,
meaning agencies such as Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council have a significant role to play in
facilitating growth in these key sectors by ensuring the conditions for investment in the city are appropriate and that
issues such as access to skilled labour and other key factors of production are eased.
In order to quantify a likely or optimal future work needs, work needs to be done with businesses to tease out the
actual potential inherent in North Shore as a location for these key industry groups, and issues or threats to growth
they see.
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PART 3: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: TOTAL ECONOMY OVERVIEW
4 MODEL OUTCOMES
This section describes the ‘Future Scenario’ based on disaggregating the total North Shore economy into 48 economic
sectors. In essence, this scenario forms the baseline for assessing the potential impacts of the interventions in the
North Shore context. It is stressed that while 48 sectors are used in this scenario, the priority sectors and the
accompanying baseline figures have been presented in the preceding section and are not repeated. The primary focus
of this section is on the trends and movements in the 48 sectors within the broader environment. The ‘Future
Scenario’ as presented in this section concentrates on the North Shore City’s ‘internal’ dynamics. In other words the
external environment, which influences the economic activity of the North Shore City, is not included in the discussion
but has been incorporated in the modelling activities. This external environment is interpreted as relating to the
regional economy (broader Auckland region) and the national (New Zealand) economy.
The approach is primarily quantitative in nature and the future inclusion of a qualitative component could translate
into a deeper understanding of the interactions and implications ie improve the degree to which local idiosyncrasies
are handled in the modelling – the outcomes of the business surveys are used to shed light on these implications.
However, the findings of the business survey have been included in the interpretation of the model. The parameters
used for the ‘Future Scenario’ modelling, included:
• The timeframe for this assessment is 2006-2031, with five-year intervals.

• The two main drivers of future demand9 used in the analysis are:
o Households,
o Exports – both international and inter-regional.
• The economic output, value-added and employment (FTEs) are defined as the outcomes in terms of the modelling
and are discussed in the final parts of the section.
For the purposes of the ‘Future Scenario’, it is assumed that there will be no supply constraints inhibiting the ability of
the North Shore economy to produce the outputs necessary to meet future demands (eg. shortages of business-zoned
land, transportation deficiencies etc). It is further assumed that there will be no major changes in the structure of the
North Shore or New Zealand economies over the study period. This means that current economic intra- and inter-
dependencies, supply chain processes and overall production profile will remain constant.
4.1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS (DEMAND) COMPONENTS
The demand conditions and components are regarded as ‘drivers’ of the North Shore economy and the following
provides an indication of the relative movements and trends in these demand components. As indicated earlier, three
elements have been included in the demand/driver part of the model – population, gross fixed capital formation and
exports. Population and export performance are discussed in the following sections. Detailed tables containing the
data used in the discussions are presented in the Appendices. Only highlights and key observations around the
9
The Economic Futures Model is a demand-driven model, the majority of the assumptions necessary to formulate a scenario pertain to hypothetical
levels of future demand for North Shore’s goods and services. The model furthermore includes gross fixed capital information in the calculations
but the results of this element is not included in the main discussion.
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different components are discussed with extracts of the data underscoring presented in the text. Where suitable a
sectoral approach has been retained to illustrate the trends in economic sectors.
4.1.1 POPULATION – ‘LOCAL DEMAND’

As part of the ‘Future Scenario’, the population trends have been modelled as the population characteristics influence
the potential consumer demand for goods and services (key demand segment in the economy). Additionally the
population size provides an indication of potentially economic active population or the labour force. The following
figures (Figure 4.1 to Figure 4.5) reflect the population pyramid for the North Shore based on the ‘Future Scenario’ of
different periods. Figure 4.6 indicates the population growth rates (average annual growth rate) of the individual age
cohorts between 2011 and 2031).
FIGURE 4-2: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2011 FIGURE 4-1: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2021
FIGURE 4-3: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2031 FIGURE 4-4: POPULATION GROWTH – 2006-2031
Source: North Shore Economic Future Model
The population pyramid indicates the expected distribution of the population over different age categories and the
Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR between the 2011-2031 period). Figure 4-4 illustrates the relative growth rates
for the different age categories, and it is evident that the higher age cohorts are expected to grow faster than the
younger age categories. For example, all the age categories over 65 years are expected to grow the fastest. The
average annual growth rates for these age categories range between 2.5% to >5%. In contrast; the younger age
categories are growing comparatively slower, with the 0-29 year segment growing at less than 1%p.a. It is important
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to note that the growth rates expressed in Figure 4-4 are influenced by the relative base from where the
movements are calculated – with the older categories reflecting high growth but from small bases.
The shift in the age profile – with the associated decline in the labour force – has implications for both the demand
and the supply side of the economy. On the supply side, the productive activities will be influenced by the availability
of labour (through the labour market and a smaller labour pool) and hence, the (un)availability of labour can be
interpreted as a constraint limiting the total output. Apart from the labour element of the population, the community
is a key component of the economy – the consumer. As the consumer base ages, the expenditure profiles change,
with lower levels of expenditure by the higher age categories.
4.1.2 EXPORT INDUSTRIES
The North Shore economy is influenced by

the relative performance of the export
ENVELOPE 4.1: DESCRIPTION OF THE APPROACH FOLLOWED
industries in the local area. Put differently,
the relative performance of the export- Quantitative estimates of export growth on an industry-by-industry basis were developed
focused industries influences the aggregate using time series analysis of commodity outputs taken from SNZ’s Harmonised System (HS).
Given that this data is only available at the national level, rather than by source region, it was
performance of the local economy. The
necessary to assume that national export trends were representative of regional export
shifts in the export market (expressed as trends.
the average annual growth rate) and the
Future estimates of physical commodity exports were determined in two steps. Firstly, the
size of the sectoral exports (volume in
HS data was aggregated from 13,000 commodities into a single homogenous commodity per
terms of NZ Dollar) is used as an indicator of
industry. This was undertaken for every year covering the period 1988 to 2005. Secondly, the
the performance of the export sector. An trends in each industry were determined through time series analysis. For those industries
overview of the approach followed to involving intangible exports (i.e. primarily services), future estimates were assumed to
determine the volume and growth rates is equate to FTE growth rates in each industry. The FTE growth rates were determined from a
time series analysis covering the 1987 to 2005 period.
presented in Envelope 4.1.
The outcome of the exercise is described in the subsequent sections. The relative sizes of the various industries are
dealt with first, and the long run growth rates are discussed in the subsequent sections.
4.1.2.1 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – SIZE (VALUE)
The export industries and the relative value of the exports - current and future - are presented in Table 4.1. The North
Shore City’s exports are generally concentrated (by value) with the top 10 exporting industries ranging from
Businesses Services to Basic Metals Manufacturing. The proportional contribution (in value) of the top 10 industries in
percentage terms to the export economy is illustrated in Figure 4.5. These 10 sectors account for 67.7% of the total
exports of the North Shore economy. However, if the top 10 industries are aggregated into generic production
sectors, it becomes evident that 48% (of the top 10 sectors) is manufacturing-based. These five manufacturing sectors
account for 32.4% of total North Shore City exports.
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TABLE 4-1: EXPORT VOLUME & RANKING

Sector $2006m Ranking 2031 ($2006m) Ranking
Horticulture & fruit growing 4.32 24 3.98 28
Livestock & cropping farming 0.01 41 0.01 42
Dairy cattle farming 0.02 40 0.02 40
Other farming 0.24 37 0.09 38
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping - 44 - 44
Forestry & logging 0.72 32 1.01 34
Fishing 0.55 34 0.64 35
Mining & quarrying 0.02 39 0.01 41
Oil & gas exploration & extraction - 45 - 44
Meat & meat prod manufacturing 0.62 33 1.19 33
Dairy prod manufacturing 47.67 6 141.16 5
Other food manufacturing 38.75 12 109.66 8
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing 2.21 29 6.45 26
Textile & apparel manufacturing 52.97 4 55.46 11
Wood prod manufacturing 17.14 17 20.03 19
Paper & paper prod manufacturing 21.42 15 23.64 18
Printing, publishing & recorded media 4.42 23 4.81 27
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing 13.57 20 13.27 23
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 40.77 11 39.89 16
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing 2.37 27 2.16 31
Basic metal manufacturing 46.75 7 54.88 12
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 42.96 9 66.10 10
Trans equipment manufacturing 25.05 14 28.73 17
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 92.38 1 360.44 1
Furniture & other manufacturing 15.49 19 17.36 21
Electricity generation & supply 0.00 43 0.00 43
Gas supply - 46 - 44
Water supply - 47 - 44
Construction 4.13 25 19.70 20
Wholesale trade 83.11 3 128.59 6
Retail trade 34.22 13 78.28 9
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 44.26 8 217.32 2
Road trans 8.17 21 7.80 25
Water & rail trans 41.74 10 40.29 15
Air trans, services to trans & storage 87.45 2 167.69 4
Communication services 17.98 16 15.39 22
Finance 2.38 26 2.18 30
Insurance 0.75 31 0.57 36
Services to finance & investment 1.45 30 3.49 29
Real estate 2.32 28 1.44 32
Business services 49.36 5 - 44
Central government 0.33 35 177.51 3
Local government 0.05 38 0.32 37
Education 0.01 42 0.05 39
Health & community services 0.26 36 44.12 14
Cultural & recreational services 16.16 18 11.60 24
Personal & other community services 5.44 22 123.13 7
Source: Market Economics Limited – North Shore Economic Futures Model
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FIGURE 4-5: TOP 10 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – 2006/VALUE NZ$
Source: Market Economics Limited Calculations
A sectoral breakdown of the value of goods and services exported by the businesses located in the city is presented in
Appendix 4.2. Apart from the large export sectors, highlighted in the preceding, the North Shore economy provides a
variety of services and goods to markets beyond its borders. The exports under the ‘Future Scenario’ provide an
indication of the interface of the North Shore economy with the broader region, and the growth in exports is
highlighted in the following section.
4.1.2.2 EXPORTING SECTORS - TRENDS
The ‘Future Scenario’ for the export sector is informed by historic trends and interactions with other economic sectors
(as built into the model). The growth rates associated with the ‘Future Scenario’ indicates the rate of change for the
different sectors. However the base from which change is expected to occur has to be taken into consideration ie the
relative size from where growth is recorded must be considered. The following figure summarises growth rates of the
value of exports from different sectors. The projected growth rates are indicative and are subject to a wide range of
external variables, such as exchange rate volatility, market shifts and the interest environment. Therefore the growth
rates are a reflection of the underlying, long terms trends in each industry/sector.
Based on the AAGR in the value of exports, the sector that is expected to have the strongest growth is Education, with
projected growth in excess of 250% between 2006 and 2011. The second strongest growth is expected in the Health
and Community Services sector – 44%. Appendix 4.3 outlines the projected growth rates in export values per sector
over the selected periods. The main observations10 from the future growth rates include:
• Continued growth by the education sector – this sector’s expected rate of growth is significantly (refer to Figure
4-6 for an illustration of the scale) higher than others in the short term and is furthermore also one of the highest
10
Note that not all the movements and trends are listed. For an indication of the movements in the individual sectors,
the reader is referred to Appendix 4.3
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growth rates in the medium to long term. This is likely to be driven by North Shore City’s continued attractiveness
to foreign students - note that this growth comes off a small base. In dollar terms the growth in this sector is
estimated to be more than $44m over the time period.
FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: EXPORTS – 2006-2011*
* - This is only one of the periods investigated – Refer to Appendix 4.3 for the AAGR of the other periods
Source: Based on Market Economic Limited calculations
• The Business Services sector is expected continue to develop its market presence and the value of this sector’s
exports is forecast to grow in excess of 5% on an average annual basis. Similarly the services to the Financial and
Insurance sectors are also expected to continue to grow at approximately 3.6% in the long term. In total this
sector’s exports are expected to increase by $128 between 2006 and 2031.
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• Expansion in the value of food-related manufactured goods exported is forecast to continue at more than 2% per
annum for all periods under review – the value of the export growth is projected to be $71m.
• Strong growth in retail trade and accommodation, restaurant and bars is expected. These sectors are expected to
expand on an average annual basis of between 3.0% and 8.3%.
• The manufacturing sub-sector, (industries associated with this sub-sector include paper and paper products,
petroleum & industrial chemicals, rubber, plastic and other chemicals, non-metallic mineral product and basic
metal manufacturing) is expected to remain relatively stable with a marginal contraction.
• The machinery and equipment manufacturing sector’s export is expected to grow at approximately 5.7% (AAGR)
over the medium to long term. This translates into an increase in export of $268m between 2006 and 2031.
• The transportation (road, rail and water) sector’s export is expected to remain relatively stable in terms of value,
with a marginal contraction (ranging between 0.1% and 0.2% on an average annual basis). In contrast, the sectors
providing services to the transportation activities are expected to expand to by approximately 2.6% per annum.
The preceding figure is only indicative of the first period’s expected sectoral growth rates. As mentioned earlier, the
expected growth rates for the different sectors for the various periods are presented in Appendix 4.3. The following
section presents an overview of the economic outputs of the North Shore economy.
4.2 ECONOMIC OUTPUTS
The way in which the North Shore economy combines the production factors and inputs (as discussed in the preceding
section) results in a range of economic outputs. The overall output of economic activity in North Shore City, as
informed by the ‘Future Scenario’, is outlined in the following section by discussing each individual sectors’ gross
output, value-added and employment (Full Time Equivalents or FTEs).
4.2.1 GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS
Gross Output is broadly defined as the total value of the transactions ie sales of the producing businesses during a
specific period. However this indicator includes the value of intermediate goods and services utilised during the
production process. Similarly gross output includes the flow (value) of goods and services relating to government
services and households. Appendix 4.3 contains the detailed tables regarding the gross output of the North Shore City
economy and an extract of the information (showing the largest sectors, by output) is contained in Table 4.2. This
table also provides an indication of:
• The projected output.

• The ranking of the sectors.
• The percentage change in output.
• The average annual growth rate of output for the 2006-2031 period.
The shading used in the table is indicative of the relative movement in the ranking of the largest 15 sectors by output
over time. A red shading means the sector declined in terms of the relative importance, yellow means the ranking
remained stable and a green shading means the sector increased in terms of its importance.
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TABLE 4-2: GROSS OUTPUT – SUMMARY OF TOP2006 15 SECTORS
2 4
SECTOR PROJECTED RANK %Δ AAGR
OUTPUT1 2006-313 2006-31
2006 2031 2006 2031
Wholesale trade 1898 3020 1 1 59.1% 1.9%
Business Services 1515 3014 2 2 98.9% 2.8%
Owner-occupied dwellings 1026 1524 3 4 48.5% 1.6%
Communication Services 898 1347 4 5 50.0% 1.6%
Construction 887 1686 5 3 90.1% 2.6%
Retail trade 818 1298 6 6 58.7% 1.9%
Real estate 675 1073 7 7 59.0% 1.9%
Health & community Services 503 761 8 8 51.3% 1.7%
Central government 405 605 9 10 49.4% 1.6%
Education 322 525 10 11 63.0% 2.0%
Insurance 320 482 11 12 50.6% 1.7%
Printing, publishing & recorded media 280 461 12 13 64.6% 2.0%
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manuf. 270 368 13 16 36.3% 1.2%
Services to finance & investment 223 346 14 18 55.2% 1.8%
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 215 662 16 9 207.9% 4.6%
th
Finance (joint 15 ) 215 344 16 19 60.0% 1.9%
1 = In NZ$m 2004 2 = Ranked in terms of size of the output in NZ$
3 = Percentage Change 2006-2031 4 = Average Annual Growth Rate
Key to shading Down Stable Up
The output of the largest 15 sectors presented in the preceding table includes owner occupied dwellings as well as the
central government sector. The owner-occupied dwellings output is generally referred to as imputed rent11 and while
included, debate around the inclusion or exclusion of this sector is ongoing. The comparatively high value of imputed
rent as an output in the table implies that the residential component of North Shore City plays an important role in
the North Shore City economic context ie the city fulfils a significant residential function.
Table 4-2 summarises the gross output of the various economic sectors and ranks the outputs for each different
period. With reference to the rankings, under the ‘Future Scenario’, it is clear that the overall structure of the
economy (in terms of output) remains relatively stable, with the contribution of individual sectors to economy
remaining virtually unchanged. This is inherent in any scenario, as alternative futures relying on alternative policy and
attraction settings are not part of the base line. The main observations regarding the rankings are:
• The continued importance of the wholesale trade and business services in the North Shore context. These two
sectors made up12 approximately a fifth (20%) of the total output in 2006 and are expected to account for a
quarter (25%) of the output in 2031.
11
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States defines imputed rent is an imputation for the net rental income of owner-occupied
housing. It is based on the assumption that owner-occupants are in the rental business and that they are renting the houses in which they live to
themselves: As tenants, they pay rent to the landlords (that is, to themselves); as landlords, they collect rent from their tenants (that is, from
themselves), they incur expenses, and they may have a profit or a loss from the rental business.
12
The proportions mentioned here is if the imputed rent is included in the total output. If imputed rent is excluded, the share of the output
captured by these two sectors is calculated as 24.6% and 27.2% for 2006 and 2031 respectively.
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• The increasing contribution to the North Shore economy by the manufacturing of machinery and equipment – up
th th
from 16 to 9 position in terms of gross output – highlights the need to focus attention on the stimulation of
this sector as a potential growth and niche sector.
• The composition of the top 15 industries is expected to remain stable under the ‘Future Scenario’ with the
Services to finance and investment- and the finance- sectors falling out of the top 15.
• The sectors, which entered the top 15 sectors, were the dairy products manufacturing and the cultural and
recreational services sectors.
• The relative concentration of the economy around the top 15 sectors is expected to increase under the ‘Future
Scenario’. In 2006, the largest 15 sectors contributed 68.9% to the economic output which is expected to increase
to 72.4% by 2031.
The gross output of the North Shore economy is only one dimension, and the discussion of the ‘Future Scenario’ is
supplemented by an investigation of the value being added locally by the economic activity described above.
4.2.2 VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS

In contrast to gross output which captures total value of all transactions, the value added component of economic
activity focuses on the value created throughout the value chain. The value added projections for the North Shore
City economy are discussed in the subsequent section by;
1) Focusing on the overall size of the value added.

2) The projected growth in value added per sector.
Value added is an indicator of the size of local business activity and its contribution to the overall wealth of the city as
it excludes the value of intermediate goods and services used during the production process. This indicator shows the
degree to which the local businesses utilise labour, capital and entrepreneurship to create value excluding inputs and
intermediate goods. Appendix 4.5 contains detailed tables relating to the value added per sector in terms of:
• The projected value added per sector.

• The proportional contribution per sector to the total value added.
• The relative ranking (per period) in terms of size of value added.
Extracts from the mentioned appendix are presented in Table 4-3 and used as the basis for highlighting the value
added profile in the North Shore City.
From the table, a central observation is the rise of the business services sector to become the largest value added
sector, replacing the wholesale trade sector (in terms of value added). While not reflected in the table (see
Appendix 4.5), this shift occurs in the short term ie between 2006 and 2011. The value added produced by the
business services sector is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8%, which is the third fastest in the North
Shore City after the machinery and equipment manufacturing and the dairy product manufacturing sectors –
projected to grow at 4.6% and 3.5% respectively. The business services sector contributes13 approximately 12% to
the North Shore value added(2006) and is expected to contribute more than 14% in 2031 based on the ‘Future
Scenario’.
13
This proportional contribution is if imputed rent associated with the owner-occupied dwellings is included.
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TABLE 4-3: SUMMARY OF KEY VALUE ADDING SECTORS
Value Added %Δ Ranking % Share AAGR
SECTORS [$2004million] 2006-31
2006 2031 2006-31 2006 2031 2006 2031 2006-

2031
1. Wholesale trade 894 1423 59.2% 1 2 12.0% 11.6% 1.9%
2. Business services 883 1756 98.9% 2 1 11.9% 14.3% 2.8%
3. Owner-occupied dwellings 843 1252 48.5% 3 3 11.3% 10.2% 1.6%
4. Retail trade 559 887 58.7% 4 4 7.5% 7.2% 1.9%
5. Communication services 557 836 50.1% 5 6 7.5% 6.8% 1.6%
6. Real estate 538 856 59.1% 6 5 7.2% 7.0% 1.9%
7. Health & community services 387 586 51.4% 7 8 5.2% 4.8% 1.7%
8. Construction 340 647 90.3% 8 7 4.6% 5.3% 2.6%
9. Central government 272 406 49.3% 9 10 3.7% 3.3% 1.6%
10. Education 262 427 63.0% 10 9 3.5% 3.5% 2.0%
11. Insurance 204 307 50.5% 11 13 2.7% 2.5% 1.6%
12. Finance 193 309 60.1% 12 12 2.6% 2.5% 1.9%
13. Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf 182 248 36.3% 13 14 2.4% 2.0% 1.2%
14. Printing, publishing & recorded media 134 221 64.9% 14 15 1.8% 1.8% 2.0%
15. Personal & other community services 115 198 72.2% 15 17 1.5% 1.6% 2.2%
16. Machinery & equipment manuf 113 348 208.0% 16 11 1.5% 2.8% 4.6%
17. Cultural & recreational services 109 213 95.4% 17 16 1.5% 1.7% 2.7%
Down Stable Up
Key to shading
Source: Based on Market Economics Limited calculations
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, value added is generated by a limited number of sectors and Figure 4-7 illustrates the
aggregate contribution of the largest value adding sectors for three groupings ie the largest three, five and 10 sectors
(excluding owner-occupied dwellings and based on the industry totals excluding final demand components). With
reference to the top 10 value adding sectors (see Table 4.3 and Appendix 4.5 for a breakdown of these sectors), these
sectors account for or represent FIGURE 4-7:% VALUE ADDED BY LARGEST SECTORS
approximately 75% (three quarters) of
total value added in the North Shore 80% 74.3% 74.3% 73.5%
economy. However over the long term
70%
(until 2031), a marginal decline in the
60%
total share is expected ie declining 52.1% 52.0% 52.1%
from 74.3% in 2006 to 73.5% in 2031. 50%
The top five value adding sectors and
40% 35.5% 35.9% 36.8%
their contribution to the economy is
expected to remain stable at around 30%
52.1%. 20%
10%
The three largest value adding sectors
account for 35% of the total value 0%
added in the North Shore. Further, the Top 10 Top 5 Top 3
relative contribution is expected to 2006 2016 2031
increase under the ‘Future Scenario’

from 35.5% to 36.8% between 2006
and 2031. This implies that the economy is expected to become increasingly concentrated and more reliant on the
largest value added generating sectors to provide wealth. The level of diversification or concentration of an economy
can be measured by the Tress index14 and the projected Tress Index for the North Shore in terms of value added is:
14
A Tress index of zero represents a totally diversified economy and a higher index (maximum is 100) represents a highly concentrated economy.
Generally, the higher the level of concentration in an economy, the more the area is dependant on a small number of sectors. This feature makes
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NORTH SHORE CITY – TRESS INDEX: VALUE ADDED

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
75.19 75.14 75.21 75.21 75.23 75.20
The North Shore economy, under the ‘Future Scenario’, is expected to experience a marginal increase in the level of
concentration as expressed by the Tress Index. While the business service sector’s increased contribution to the share
of the value added (from 11.9% in 2006 to 14.3% in 2031) furthered the increasing concentration, it is not the primary
driver of this increase. Overall the increase in Tress Index is expected to be marginal and not a significant departure
from the underlying structure. However the Tress index of 75 indicates that the North Shore economy is not fully
diversified and is potentially exposed to external shocks.
The following section discusses the employment needs of the North Shore economy under the ‘Future Scenario’.
4.2.3 EMPLOYMENT (FTE) PROJECTIONS

Labour is a key production factor and is a requirement for all business activities. The employment requirements
(expressed in terms of full time equivalents – FTEs) of the economy under the ‘Future Scenario’ are outlined in the
following section. Emphasis is on the total employment pool and the key sectors (out of the 48 sectors) as identified
in the preceding sections. Figure 4-8 reflects total projected FTEs in the North Shore City economy under the ‘Future
Scenario’. The total number of FTEs required in the economy is expected to increase from approximately 87,500 FTEs
in 2006 to 127,150 in 2031. This translates into a percentage movement of 45.2% and an average annual growth rate
(2006-2031) of 1.50%. This is behind the projected population growth projections for the 2006-2011 period but faster
than the projected population growth for the 2011-2016 and onward periods. The population of the North Shore is
projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and the growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25%
between 2011 and 2016.
FIGURE 4-8: FTE - PROJECTIONS
The projected rate at which the FTEs grow
140,000
during the 2006-2031 period is not linear and
the rate of growth is expected to slow down. 120,000
The rates at which the total FTEs are expected

100,000
to grow during the different timeframes are:
80,000
• 2006-11 1.74% 60,000

• 2011-16 1.62%
40,000
• 2016-21 1.48%
• 2021-26 1.38% 20,000
• 2026-31 1.30%.
-
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Apart from total employment, the composition
of the labour force (as employed in terms of
FTEs) will change as economic structure shifts. Appendix 4.6 details the projected FTE employment levels by sector
and Figure 4-9 presents the FTE profile. The business services sector offers the largest number of employment
opportunities in the North Shore City economy, accounting for approximately 12,650 FTEs (14.5% of the total FTEs) in
2006 and expected to expand to an estimated 21,400 FTEs by 2031. This sector is also a key driver of the total change
in employment growth, accounting for 22.1% of total FTE growth (between 2006 and 2031) in North Shore City. The
the economy more vulnerable to exogenous shocks and variables such as adverse climatic conditions, commodity price fluctuations, exchange rate
exposures, etc.
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September 2008
employment structure of the North Shore City economy is dominated by a number of sectors and under the ‘Future
Scenario’, this structure is not expected to change in any considerable way.
Key employment sectors, both current and future, are:
• The Business Services, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade sectors (the three largest sectors) accounted for 40.5%
of the North Shore FTEs in 2006 –rising to 41.1% in 2031.
• In addition to these three sectors, the Health and Community, and the Construction sectors captured a further
15% of the FTEs. In total, the five largest sectors by FTEs utilised 55.9% of the North Shore FTEs in 2006 and is
expected to employ 56.5% of the FTEs by 2031.
• The 10 largest sectors by FTE utilisation occupy more than three quarters (approximately 76% for all periods
between 2006 and 2031).
In terms of the employment structure (proportion of FTEs per sector), no significant changes are expected under the
‘Future Scenario’. The three largest sectors (by FTE) are expected to remain stable, with only a selected number of
‘positional changes’. Figure 4.11 reflects the employment structure, and the dominance of the employment by the
sectors mentioned above is clearly evident. The changes in ranking over time of employment sectors are illustrated in
Table 4-4.
TABLE 4-4: FTE RANKINGS – MAIN MOVEMENTS

SECTOR 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Business services 1 1 1 1 1 1
Retail trade 2 2 2 2 2 2
Wholesale trade 3 3 3 3 3 3
Health & community services 4 5 5 5 5 5
Construction 5 4 4 4 4 4
Education 6 6 6 6 6 6
Central government 7 7 7 7 7 7
Communication services 8 8 8 8 8 9
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 9 9 9 9 9 8
Personal & other community services 10 10 10 10 10 11
Real estate 11 11 11 12 12 13
Printing, publishing & recorded media 12 12 13 14 14 14
Cultural & recreational services 13 13 14 13 13 12
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 14 14 12 11 11 10
Down Stable Up
Key to shading
Source: Based on Market Economics Limited Calculations
Apart from overall stability in the rankings with minor positional changes as indicated in the table, the only other
significant observations in the rankings are:
• The strong growth (and increased share of FTEs) being captured by the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing
sector. This sector’s share of employment increased from 1.7% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2031. Further, the sector’s
th th
strong FTE growth resulted in the sectors relative (expected) position moving from 14 in 2006 to 10 in 2031.
This is also the highest number of positions moved by any sector.
th
• The Cultural and Recreational Service sector’s position varied and is projected to be approximately 12 by 2031.
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September 2008
• The Real Estate industry is expected to move two positions down between 2006 and 2031, and is projected to end
th
in 13 position by 2031.
FIGURE 4-9: FTE STRUCTURE (% OF TOTAL FTE)
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Accommodation, restaurants & bars

Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
Basic metal manuf
2006 2031
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
Business svcs
Central government
Communication svcs
Construction
Cultural & recreational svcs
Dairy cattle farming
Dairy prod manuf
Education
Electricity generation & supply
Finance
Fishing
Forestry & logging
Furniture & other manuf
Gas supply
Health & community svcs
Horticulture & fruit growing
Insurance
Livestock & cropping farming
Local government
Machinery & equipment manuf
Meat & meat prod manuf
Mining & quarrying
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
Other farming
Other food manuf
Owner-occupied dwellings
Paper & paper prod manuf
Personal & other community svcs
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
Printing, publishing & recorded media
Real estate
Retail trade
Road trans
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping
Svcs to finance & investment
Textile & apparel manuf
Trans equipment manuf
Water & rail trans
Water supply
Wholesale trade
Wood prod manuf
Source: North Shore Economic Future Model
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September 2008
From the preceding discussions it is evident that the sector which dominates the FTE profile of the North Shore is
the Business Services sector. Additionally the Retail and Wholesale trades and the Machinery and Equipment
Manufacturing sectors also play important roles in the North Shore City FTE profile. Under the ‘Future Scenario’,
these sectors will have an increasingly important role in the North Shore economy and the ability/capacity of available
employment to fulfil industry needs is of vital importance. One indicator that is used to determine whether a region is
self-sufficient in supplying its own needs is the Simple Location Quotient (SLQ) 15. Table 4.5 presents an extract of SLQ
for the industries based on the FTEs, with the complete list of SLQ for all the sectors presented in Appendix 4.7.
TABLE 4-5: PROJECTED SECTORAL (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS (>1)

SECTOR 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Insurance 2.82 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.84 2.84
Communication services 2.46 2.44 2.43 2.41 2.4 2.39
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.81 1.78 1.76
Wholesale trade 1.86 1.85 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.81
Printing, publishing & recorded media 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.64
Services to finance & investment 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43
Furniture & other manufacturing 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.45
Real estate 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36
Central government 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.45
Business services 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.33
Retail trade 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26
Construction 1.09 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.05
Personal & other community services 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05
Textile & apparel manufacturing 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.04
Sectors with high SLQ are typically (but not always) export-oriented sectors, which imply that these sectors bring
capital into the region in contrast to circulating existing capital in the region (as most retail stores and restaurants do).
Sectors which have both high SLQ and relatively high total job numbers typically form the strongest components of a
region’s employment base and offer the greatest opportunities for growth of a region’s wealth, as they are often the
result of a comparative or competitive advantage the region has - either as a result of natural or human factors.
4.3 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
A significant volume of information and data has been presented in earlier sections and it is possible to combine the
information in a way that informs North Shore’s future development path in terms of selecting sectors for
intervention. The following assessment provides a high level indication of the likely development potential and
implications for the main sectors. The approach followed, using a ‘shift-share framework’, enables the identification
of emerging and declining sectors. A concise discussion of the shift share framework and its implications is presented
in Envelope 4.2. As part of the shift share framework, the Simple Location Quotient is used and is augmented by the
use of;
15
The location quotient is a commonly utilised analytical tool that compares the local economy to a reference economy, in the process attempting
to identify specialisations in the local economy. The location quotient technique is based upon a calculated ratio between the local economy and
the economy of some reference unit. The formula associated with the SLQ has been presented earlier in the document.
39
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September 2008
1) The size of the sector in terms of jobs,.

2) The percent change in SLQ over a given time period.
The interpretation is oriented toward the North Shore City employment (FTE) situation and it is important to realise
that the occupational growth and decline in employment is linked to the trends and performances of the different
sectors employing the workers. The sectoral SLQs are linked to the projected movements over time. The modelling
that has been completed included different timeframes ie to determine the medium term outlook for different
sectors. In addition - by using SLQs - the relationship between each individual local sector, the aggregate North
Shore economy, the New Zealand individual sector and the New Zealand economy ensures that both industry
(sectoral) dynamics and broader economic relationships are captured.
ENVELOPE 4.2: SHIFT SHARE FRAMEWORK
The shift share framework used in this analysis of the employment (FTE) structure and the associated trends employs a
quadrant approach. A location in one of the 4 respective quadrants has different implications from an analytical perspective.
The specific location is determined by indexing the SLQ and the movements in the SLQ over time.
A sector in the upper right quadrant (Quadrant I) is more concentrated in the region than average, and also is becoming more
concentrated over time. These sectors are “standouts” that distinguish the regional economy and are doing so more every
year—and they are especially important if they are also large in terms of jobs. Large sectors in this quadrant are both
important and high performing, which means they will have increasing workforce demand. Small industries in this quadrant
are emerging, high-potential regional export industries that should be developed further.
The lower right quadrant (Quadrant II) contains sectors which are not yet as concentrated in the region as they are at the
national (or the relevant benchmark) level, but are becoming more concentrated over time. If they continue this trend, they
will eventually move across the horizontal axis into the upper right-hand quadrant. These sectors are referred to as “pre-
emergent” sectors, having the potential to contribute more to the region’s economic base.
The upper left quadrant (Quadrant III) contains sectors that are more concentrated in reference region than average, but
whose concentration is declining. If a mid-size or large sector is in this quadrant, it is an important warning that the region is
losing an important part of its export base and should form planning and investment priorities accordingly. If the region does
not bolster these sectors or replace them with other export industries, it will likely enter a general decline in these sectors (and
possibly a loss of these sectors). A large occupation in this quadrant usually indicates that the major sector employing people
in that occupation is in decline.
Finally, the lower left quadrant (Quadrant IV) contains sectors which are less important regionally (the reference economy)
than nationally (benchmark economy) and are also declining in employment. If a large proportion of the local sectors are
located in this quadrant it could be a warning sign that the region needs to attract more businesses in those industries in order
to maintain an economy that is sufficiently balanced and diversified in comparison to the national economy.
GRAPHICAL ILLUSTRATION
2.50
Key sector
Caution (Future labour demand)
2.00
1.50
Potential intervention
Export potential
required
IV I
Q
L 1.00
S Caution
III II “Pre-emergent”
0.50
Potential intervention
required
0.00
-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
% Movement in SLQ
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September 2008
The shift share figures for the North Shore City economy are presented based on the approach outlined in the
envelope above. The actual figures resulting from the shift share analysis are presented in Appendix 4.7 which also
contains information relating to the shift share including a complete list of the variables at five-year intervals. The
Appendix also contains figures reflecting the comparative position of the various sectors.
A summary of the shift share analysis is presented in Figure 4-10 to assist with the interpretation vis-a-vis the
individual sector’s position in the shift share framework.
FIGURE 4-10: SUMMARY OF SHIFT SHARE (SLQ & FTE)

Communication svcs
Furniture & other manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Business svcs
Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Central government
Real estate Construction
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Insurance Insurance
Svcs to finance & investment Personal & other community svcs Personal & other community svcs
Wholesale trade Retail trade
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
IV I Textile & apparel manuf
III II
Accommodation, restaurants0.80 & bars
Basic metal manuf
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
0.60
Dairy prod manuf 0.40
Finance
Fishing
0.20
Livestock & cropping farming
0.00
Meat & meat prod manuf -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Education
Other farming Forestry & logging
Other food manuf Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Health & community svcs
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Local government
Road trans Basic metal manuf
Machinery & equipment manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Paper & paper prod manuf
Finance
Trans equipment manuf
Textile & apparel manuf
Water & rail trans
Water supply
Wood prod manuf
Note: The actual shift share figures from which this summary has been derived are presented in Appendix 4.7
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, overall importance of each individual sectors’ FTE structure and SLQ is not expected to
experience any significant movements or shifts. The importance of the Business Services sector as a key sector is
underlined by the preceding assessments and this expected to remain the case. The size of this sector relative to the
North Shore economy as a whole implies that its labour force requirements (and its ability to attract labour) is of vital
importance for the future wellbeing of both the sector and the economy overall. Similarly the sector’s skills
requirements (ie labour quality) are a core issue. Other sectors which have similar features and which are located in
Quadrant I include:
• Insurance,
• Personal & other Community Services,
16
• Real Estate , and
• Printing, Publishing & Recorded Media17.
16
Moved into Q1 over time
17
Moved into Q1 over time
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September 2008
A possible reason for the relative importance of the Central Government sector on the North Shore could be
attributed to the location of the Defence Forces in Devonport and some of the central government offices (such as
Child, Youth & Family offices in Takapuna) as well as other government functions in business nodes throughout North
Shore City. It should be noted that specific services delivered by these government agencies could have a focus that is
wider than a purely North Shore area (for example, the Naval Base at Devonport). However the location of central
government agencies (in North Shore City) plays an important role in the local economy through the occupation of
space, and through local multiplier effects through linkages with supporting industries and institutions (such as back
office and IT support services).
FIGURE 4-11: SHIFT SHARE FIGURES

3.00 3.5 0
Comm Srvs 3.0 0

2.50 Ins urance
Business svcs Ret ail t rad e 2.5 0

2.00
W-Sal e Tr ade Rubber, pl astic & other chem manuf
2.0 0
1.50 Printi ng, publ. & rec. media
C entral government Svcs tofi nance & i nvestment
1.5 0
Con struction Furniture& other manuf Real es tate
1.00 Health & Sheet& fabricated metal prod manuf
Accom, resta. & bar s co mm svcs 1.0 0
Cul tural & recreational svcs
0.50 Road trans
0.5 0
Educati on
Person al & ot her
comm svcs
0.00 0.0 0
-2 .0% -1.5 % -1 .0% -0.5 % 0.0% 0.5 % 1.0%
-3.0% - 2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
1.20
0 .7 0
Trans equipment manuf Textile & apparel manuf Paper & paper prod manuf
1.00 0 .6 0 Dairy prod manuf
Water & rail trans
H orticulture & fruit growing
0 .5 0 Petroleum & industrial
Non-metallic mineral Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping chem manuf
0.80 prod manuf Dairy cattle farming
Basic metal manuf
Local government 0 .4 0
0.60 F inance
0 .3 0 Livestock & cropping farming
Air trans, svcs to
trans & storage
Other f ood manuf
0.40 0 .2 0
Forestry &
logging
Wood prod manuf 0 .1 0
0.20 Beverage, malt &
tobacco manuf
0 .0 0
0.00
-0 .1 0
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
-1 5.0% -1 0.0% -5.0 % 0.0 % 5.0 % 10 .0%
0.09
Water supply
0.08
0.07
Fishing
0.06
0.05
0.04 Other farming
0.03 Mining & quarrying
0.02
0.01
0.00
-20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
NOTE: These figures are replicated in Appendix 4.7 with a larger scale for ease of reference.
The Construction sector, while being located in Quadrant 1, does not imply that this sector dominates the local
economy. Similarly construction employment in North Shore City does not imply that all the physical construction
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activities are undertaken within the boundaries of the North Shore. While construction entities (registered
businesses) might be located within North Shore City, their business activities could include construction activity
outside the North Shore area. However, the majority of construction activity is aimed at the residential sector. This,
coupled with the owner-operator nature of the industry (residential addresses registered as business locations),
means that areas with a high residential component (such as the metropolitan centres) and high growth prospects,
naturally have high construction employment.
The Retail sector is another key sector in the North Shore City context, and based on the SLQ and shifts in the relative
position of this sector, implies that retailing is likely to remain a leading sector. Hhe retail SLQ (based on FTE
projections) should be interpreted with caution because retail trade is demand-driven. The demand for retail is a
function of the socio-economic features of the trade (catchment) area and economic conditions. In the case of the
SLQ, the value larger than one means that the area has retail facilities which service more than merely the North
Shore population, or that the inherent characteristics of the North Shore population support a higher level of retail
than the national average. In essence, this means that the retail sector could be serving a catchment that is greater
than just the North Shore City area. This could relate to the large retailing precincts such as the Westfield Albany area
and the bulk retail of Wairau Valley, attracting retail spending from outside North Shore City.
The Wholesale Trade sector is a key employer (large FTE basis) and is located in Quadrant IV. A closer inspection of
the projected SLQ and FTEs for this sector reveals that the sector is comparatively stable and is expected to have a
constant increase/growth in the number of FTEs employed. Wholesaling’s location in Q-IV is therefore not a critical
issue.
The Textile and Apparel Manufacturing sector is expected to move into QI in the long term. However, the location of
this sector in QI is subject to intermittent movements out of the quadrant. In other words, the sector has a ‘marginal’
score in terms of the SLQ. While this sector is comparatively small (on an FTE basis) compared to the Business
Services and Retail sectors, the sector provides an opportunity for diversifying the manufacturing base. It should
however be noted that this sector is likely to face significant market pressures from low-cost international
manufacturers and it is envisaged that the entities in this sector are likely to focus on the niche, high-quality
manufactured products eg techni-textiles for the garment industry and other high tech materials such as sails for the
marine industry.
With reference to Quadrant II, the make-up of this quadrant is forecast to remain relatively stable under the ‘Future
Scenario’ with a total of five sectors moving in and out of this quadrant. The sectors moving out of Quadrant II under
the ‘Future Scenario’ are:
• Air Transport, Services to Transport and Storage to QIII.

• Textiles & Apparel Manufacturing to QI (discussed in the preceding).
The sectors which are expected to move into QII under the ‘Future Scenario’ assumptions include:
• Basic Metals Manufacturing.

• Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing.
• Finance sectors.
The movement of Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing into Quadrant II confirms the features associated with
this sector in the preceding section ie this manufacturing sub-sector is expected to grow in the short to long term in
terms of its position in the local economy. As indicated in preceding sections, Machinery and Equipment
Manufacturing was one of the key important sectors in terms of:
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• Long term growth in value added.

• Long term growth in output.
• Export by value.
This industry’s movement from QIII to QII highlights the emerging importance of this sector with a potential focus on
the export market. While Basic Metals Manufacturing also moves from QIII to QII, this sector is not as significant as
Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing in terms of growth, value added or output. Basic Metals Manufacturing is
one of the largest (7th largest) exporters, but is relatively small in terms of both value added and employment (FTE).
However, from an industry perspective, potential synergies exist between the two sectors. Under the ‘Future
Scenario’, manufacturing activities with development potential (as identified through the preceding analysis) are
expected to be associated with:
• Basic Metals Manufacturing.

• Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing.
• Non-metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing.
• Paper and Paper Product Manufacturing.
The other three sectors that feature in QII include Local Government, Education, and Health and Community Services.
The local government sector is a key role-player in the local economy and has distinctive roles (such as co-ordinator,
stimulator, facilitator and developer) but is not a sector that can be targeted through stimulatory instruments to drive
economic development or to improve the functioning of the economic system per se.
The emergence of Education as a potential key contributor to the North Shore economy is highlighted by the shift
share framework. While this sector is not currently in QI, it has an important role to play in the economy through the
provision of employees with targeted skill sets. It is important to distinguish the dual role of this sector. Firstly the
sector produces an economic output (as projected and discussed in the preceding sections) and, secondly the sector
provides a service to the economy with specific emphasis on the quality of the labour force. Both these components
are, however, critically important for the future of the North Shore City economy.
Other observations regarding Figure 4-10 include:
• The location of the Accommodation, Restaurant and Bars sector in QIII does not imply that this sector is not
important in the local context. This sector has a strong interface with the retail sector and supports this sector. It
is a small employer (in terms of FTEs), however the low SLQ could be interpreted as a gap in the current market
profile – especially around the leisure industry (hotels and tourism industry type activities).
• The Manufacturing sub-sectors which play a smaller role are predominantly related to the agri-processing type
activities as well as some of the traditionally heavy industries (such as petro-chemical processing).
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, a number of potential patterns and movements in the economic structure were
identified. These shifts and movements have different implications for the economic functioning of the city. The
development indicators used by Enterprise North Shore should provide an indication of likely development
opportunities.
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The ‘Future Scenario’ provides a baseline that could be used to measure the impacts of development interventions in
the North Shore economy. While the movements and dynamics of the broader economy will also influence the North
Shore economy and sectors, using instruments such as location quotients enables a wide tracking of sectoral
movements based on local, regional and national trends. Similarly by using the development indicators for the North
Shore, intervention points could be identified and conversely selection of appropriate development programmes can
be prioritised. By inference, this also means that development issues and constraints that could not be realistically
influenced can be monitored and their influence on the economy can be tracked.
By maintaining an understanding of the environment within which North Shore businesses operate, it is possible to
identify and highlight:
• Emerging constraints.
• Trends in the existing constraints.
• Emerging development opportunities.
• Uptake of salient/latent development opportunities.
• Shifts in the economic and sectoral structure.
By monitoring the development environment, as informed by the ‘Future Scenario’, implications of movements in one
or many of these variables can be determined and appropriate responses can be designed and implemented in time.
Examples of the dimensions to monitor include:
• The growth and movements in selected sectors (such as the targeted business sectors).
• Monitoring of trends in the economic structure such as the growing importance of business services in terms of
employment and proportional labour market structure, and the ability of the labour force to meet industry
requirements (in terms of quality and quantity of labour).
• Clarifying the need and rationale for regional economic infrastructure, such as transport infrastructure and
telecommunications infrastructure.
• Monitoring the supporting industries and institutions and their comparative contribution to the performance of
the economy and key sectors – the ‘services to the Finance and Insurance sector’ is an example of a supporting
industry.
• Identification of emerging sectors, and linking the sectors with appropriate development assistance. For example,
the Education sector.
A key issue associated with the indicators is that they are based on historic data and are subject to a time lag. Hence,
monitoring of indicator movements needs to be informed by the overall economic context (such as the movements in
the external macro-economic environment). While modelling of this external environment is beyond the ambit of this
study, numerous free sources exist that provide quarterly commentaries on the external environment. These
commentaries should be used to sketch the context within which any assessment of economic performance by the
North Shore or North Shore businesses is undertaken. Examples of these commentaries include:
• New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER).

• Various financial institutions both public and private (eg Westpac, National Bank, Bank of New Zealand).
• Statistics New Zealand.
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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The inclusion of commentaries enables the timely identification of movements in the market place which might not be
evident in the modelling outputs. One of the features of the economy that will receive ongoing monitoring is
employment and capital productivity. However, sectoral productivity measurements are only available at a national
level and not at territorial authority level. They are subsequently captured under the external environment
component and are not part of the core indicator set of North Shore City’s economic performance. The proposed
indicator set is presented in the following section.
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5 DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
Development indicators, based on the overall economy as well as the North Shore’s targeted business sectors, are
presented in this section. The primary focus is on the main indicators and the establishment of a baseline for future
tracking of the economy. In addition to the main (and traditional) measures of economic and business activity
(output, value added and employment) a number of ratios have been included to reflect the changing conditions. The
indicators outline elements associated with general economic parameters and their relationship with the broader
economy (Auckland region and New Zealand) in terms of business units and employee counts on an annual basis
between 2001 and 2007. In addition, the relative share (proportion) of business and employment profiles have been
included together with an indication of the relative share of growth (decline) captured in North Shore City and the
Auckland region. Intuitive labels have been used and the reader is referred to Table 5-1 to view the following
indicators:
• Businesses
o Total number of entities
o Growth in entities
o Share of overall growth (North Shore – Auckland region and Auckland region to New Zealand).
• Employment (Employee Counts)
o Total number of employees
o Change in employees over time
o Share of overall growth (North Shore – Auckland region and Auckland region to New Zealand).
• North Shore – targeted business sectors
o Employment by targeted business sector (based on Employee Counts)
o Number of business in the targeted business sectors and the associated growth trends (and comparative
figures as outlined above)
o An indication of the share of the business and employment captured by the targeted business sectors in
relation to the other ‘non- targeted business sectors’ in the different areas.
• Value of building consents
o The total value of the construction (value of building consents)
o A sectoral breakdown of value of the building consents using 17 sectors.
Table 5-1 provides the information associated with the preceding and also provides an indication of overall trends
(between 2001 and 2007) in the final column. The three tables (Table 5-2 to Table 5-4) provide detailed information
about the sectors for North Shore City, Auckland region and New Zealand. More specifically, the three tables provide
the same information for the three economies and provide estimated historic and forecast levels of:
• The gross output per targeted business sector

• The value added per targeted business sector
18
• The employment (Full Time Equivalent - FTEs )
• Value added per FTE
• Output per FTE.
18
FTEs were used for the future projections and the employee counts were used to inform the estimates of the recent
employment levels.
47
FINAL
September 2008
The tables also provide an indication of average annual growth rates for each individual targeted business sectors and
for the different timeframes out to 2031. The information and indicators used in this section (Table 5-2 to Table 5-4)
has furthermore been packaged into ratios that shed light on the internal (area-based) characteristics of the targeted
business sectors ie the relative share of the targeted business sectors towards:
1) The comparative contribution to output and value added of the targeted business sectors in the North Shore
compared with the Auckland region and the Auckland region to New Zealand (refer to Table 5-5 and Table 5.6).
2) The relative contribution that each area’s targeted business sectors make towards the aggregate targeted
business output, value added and FTEs is presented in Table 5-7.
It is stressed that while the sector level parameters (outlined in the preceding section) are not replicated in this
section, the ongoing monitoring of the ‘Future Scenario’ is implied. The information associated with projected gross
output, value added and employment is contained in the following appendices
• Appendix 4.4: Projected Gross Output Per Sector

• Appendix 4.5: Projected Value Added Per Sector
• Appendix 4.6: Projected Employment – Full Time Equivalents (FTEs)
Similarly the location quotients for the individual 48 (Appendix 4.7) should also form part of the monitoring activity.
The rationale for monitoring the SLQ of all sectors in the North Shore economy is based on the fact that the measure
encompasses trends in the broader economy, as well as the local sector into one parameter.
Monitoring of the SLQ movements is not envisaged to provide a definitive indication of emerging sectors but rather to
act as a ‘Warning Signal’ and to trigger focused investigation around the causes of the movement. This is partially
because a 48 sector breakdown of the economy is necessarily coarse, meaning that detailed understanding of shifts is
not able to be developed by simply focusing on a 48 sector SLQ assessment.
The shift share framework employed in the preceding section provides the necessary baseline for this monitoring.
48
FINAL
September 2008
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS

ASPECT AREA YEAR TREND
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* (2001-2007)
NORTH SHORE 14,426 14,606 15,459 17,169 18,372 19,112 19,423

BUSINESSES
AUCKLAND REGION 120,892 121,943 128,132 141,067 148,485 153,326 156,141

#
NEW ZEALAND 403,645 408,416 422,548 453,662 474,007 490,474 499,940

NS: AUCKLAND 11.9% 12.0% 12.1% 12.2% 12.4% 12.5% 12.4%
AUCKLAND REGION: NZ 30.0% 29.9% 30.3% 31.1% 31.3% 31.3% 31.2%
%
NEW ZEALAND 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

NORTH SHORE 291 1,159 2,208 1,572 884 553
GROWTH IN
BUSINESSES
AUCKLAND REGION 1,051 6,189 12,935 7,418 4,841 2,815

#
NEW ZEALAND 4,771 14,132 31,114 20,345 16,467 9,466

SHARE OF GROWTH (NS: AUCKLAND) 27.7% 18.7% 17.1% 21.2% 18.3% 19.6%
%
SHARE OF GROWTH (AUCKLAND: NZ) 22.0% 43.8% 41.6% 36.5% 29.4% 29.7%
NORTH SHORE 66,652 70,876 74,107 78,537 81,655 83,500 86,121
EMPLOYMENT
AUCKLAND REGION 518,231 532,021 553,603 578,870 598,736 612,247 627,072

#
NEW ZEALAND 1,612,237 1,661,627 1,716,538 1,785,493 1,844,660 1,880,821 1,923,306

NS: AUCKLAND 12.9% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7%
AUCKLAND REGION: NZ 32.1% 32.0% 32.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.6% 32.6%
%
NEW ZEALAND 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

NORTH SHORE 4224 3231 4430 3118 1845 2,621
GROWTH IN
EMPLOYME
AUCKLAND REGION 13790 21582 25267 19866 13511 14,825

#
NEW ZEALAND 49390 54911 68955 59167 36161 42,485

SHARE OF GROWTH (NS: AUCKLAND) 30.6% 15.0% 17.5% 15.7% 13.7% 17.7%
%
SHARE OF GROWTH (AUCKLAND: NZ) 27.9% 39.3% 36.6% 33.6% 37.4% 34.9%
HIGH TECHNOLOGY 377 385 398 422 427 399 393
EDUCATION 290 313 332 354 367 364 370
BUSINESSES
NORTH SHORE – TARGETED
TARGETED
SPORTS 201 203 226 245 273 287 296

HEALTH 691 697 733 773 827 875 898
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 3,746 3,818 4,033 4,426 4,695 4,808 5,018
SECTORS
OTHER 14,426 14,606 15,459 17,169 18,372 19,112 19,423

TOTAL 19,731 20,022 21,181 23,389 24,961 25,845 26,398
HIGH TECHNOLOGY 1.91% 1.92% 1.88% 1.80% 1.71% 1.54% 1.49%
TARGETED
EDUCATION 1.47% 1.56% 1.57% 1.51% 1.47% 1.41% 1.40%

% OF
SPORTS 1.02% 1.01% 1.07% 1.05% 1.09% 1.11% 1.12%

HEALTH 3.50% 3.48% 3.46% 3.30% 3.31% 3.39% 3.40%
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 18.99% 19.07% 19.04% 18.92% 18.81% 18.60% 19.01%
49
FINAL
September 2008
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS

ASPECT AREA YEAR TREND
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* (2001-2007)
OTHER 73.11% 72.95% 72.99% 73.41% 73.60% 73.95% 73.58%
TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
HIGH TECHNOLOGY 8 13 24 5 -28 -6
TARGETED SECTORS’ MOVEMENTS
EDUCATION 23 19 22 13 -3 6
SPORTS 2 23 19 28 14 9
MOVEMENT
HEALTH 6 36 40 54 48 23
ABSOLUTE
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 72 215 393 269 113 210

TOTAL TARGETED 111 306 498 369 144 242
OTHER 180 853 1,710 1,203 740 311
TOTAL 291 1,159 2,208 1,572 884 553
HIGH TECHNOLOGY 7.2% 4.2% 4.8% 1.4% -19.4% -2.5%
EDUCATION 20.7% 6.2% 4.4% 3.5% -2.1% 2.5%
GROWTH
% OF
SPORTS 1.8% 7.5% 3.8% 7.6% 9.7% 3.7%

HEALTH 5.4% 11.8% 8.0% 14.6% 33.3% 9.5%
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 64.9% 70.3% 78.9% 72.9% 78.5% 86.8%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
TOTAL 82,793,261 77,685,655 83,281,050 121,265,716 144,331,432 156,589,690
AGRICULTURE 78,000 144,000 60,500 272,942 - 11,000
MINING - - - - - -
MANUFACTURING 4,104,861 3,136,355 8,400,000 11,023,000 755,442 2,597,000
VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS
ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER SUPPLY 150,000 25,000 15,000 148,985 170,000 1,130,000
CONSTRUCTION - 761,000 881,000 490,000 - 220,000
SECTORAL BREAKDOWN
WHOLESALE TRADE 14,156,200 13,826,000 6,559,000 44,360,000 30,254,600 29,893,500

RETAIL TRADE 6,471,400 17,338,000 2,687,800 3,645,500 11,067,700 32,364,500
ACCOMMODATION, CAFES & RESTAURANTS 5,506,400 4,435,000 45,000 2,310,000 115,000 950,000
TRANSPORT & STORAGE 409,000 1,838,000 19,900 - 7,844,500 2,720,000
COMMUNICATION SERVICES - - - - - -
FINANCE & INSURANCE - - - 800,000 - -
PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES 34,900,900 12,617,000 18,719,850 22,274,000 43,738,700 60,333,300
GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION & DEFENCE - 35,000 - - 2,500,000 32,000
EDUCATION 8,927,500 18,001,000 24,875,000 30,778,289 36,176,000 12,044,443
HEALTH & COMMUNITY SERVICES 1,789,000 2,330,000 20,488,000 282,000 669,490 13,324,447
CULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL SERVICES 4,800,000 2,695,800 530,000 4,221,000 590,000 639,500
PERSONAL AND OTHER SERVICES 1,500,000 503,500 - 660,000 10,450,000 330,000
50
FINAL
September 2008
TABLE 5-2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS – NORTH SHORE
NORTH SHORE
Output per TBAP Sector Average Annual Growth Rate
NZ$'m 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 830,880 851,571 872,862 940,546 1,062,930 1,199,937 1,360,372 1,546,551 2.51% 2.48% 2.45% 2.54% 2.60% 2.52% 2.52%
Education 67,187 68,703 70,253 75,116 83,463 92,017 100,781 109,545 2.26% 2.13% 1.97% 1.84% 1.68% 1.90% 1.97%
Sports & Performance 116,642 119,753 122,948 133,053 152,434 173,381 196,936 223,542 2.67% 2.76% 2.61% 2.58% 2.57% 2.63% 2.64%
Financial & Professional 1,807,717 1,854,374 1,902,265 2,053,666 2,324,309 2,619,925 2,949,092 3,314,878 2.58% 2.51% 2.42% 2.40% 2.37% 2.42% 2.46%
Health 378,930 386,332 393,880 417,425 457,546 496,948 534,910 570,774 1.95% 1.85% 1.67% 1.48% 1.31% 1.58% 1.65%
Total (TBAP) 3,201,355 3,280,734 3,362,208 3,619,806 4,080,682 4,582,208 5,142,090 5,765,290 2.49% 2.43% 2.35% 2.33% 2.31% 2.35% 2.38%
North Shore (Total industry) 12,872,000 13,177,910 13,491,090 14,476,000 16,150,000 17,900,000 19,744,000 21,678,000 2.38% 2.21% 2.08% 1.98% 1.89% 2.04% 2.11%
TBAP Share of North Shore 24.87% 24.90% 24.92% 25.01% 25.27% 25.60% 26.04% 26.60%
Value added - TBAP Sectors Average Annual Growth Rate

NZ$'000 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 461,177 472,527 484,199 521,256 587,882 664,254 750,078 852,401 2.48% 2.43% 2.47% 2.46% 2.59% 2.49% 2.49%
Education 54,668 55,904 57,169 61,136 68,022 74,908 82,002 89,096 2.26% 2.16% 1.95% 1.83% 1.67% 1.90% 1.97%
Health 289,942 295,611 290,500 319,425 349,813 380,140 409,809 437,318 1.96% 1.83% 1.68% 1.51% 1.31% 1.58% 1.66%
Total (TBAP) 1,938,611 1,985,705 2,023,122 2,186,574 2,460,806 2,760,701 3,089,794 3,456,269 2.44% 2.39% 2.33% 2.28% 2.27% 2.32% 2.34%
North Shore (Total industry) 7,429,000 7,597,940 7,770,721 8,313,000 9,253,000 10,230,000 11,246,000 12,308,000 2.27% 2.17% 2.03% 1.91% 1.82% 1.98% 2.04%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) Average Annual Growth Rate

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 4,245 4,326 4,409 4,713 5,217 5,790 6,451 7,230 2.11% 2.06% 2.10% 2.19% 2.31% 2.16% 2.15%
Education 1,083 1,098 1,112 1,171 1,261 1,346 1,427 1,501 1.57% 1.49% 1.32% 1.17% 1.02% 1.25% 1.31%
Sports & Performance 989 1,008 1,028 1,096 1,211 1,333 1,466 1,612 2.07% 2.02% 1.94% 1.92% 1.91% 1.95% 1.97%
Financial & Professional 12,357 12,594 12,358 13,663 15,071 16,559 18,180 19,962 2.03% 1.98% 1.90% 1.89% 1.89% 1.91% 1.94%
Health 4,928 4,978 5,028 5,257 5,584 5,874 6,127 6,333 1.30% 1.22% 1.02% 0.85% 0.66% 0.94% 1.01%
Total (TBAP) 23,602 24,003 23,934 25,899 28,345 30,902 33,651 36,638 1.88% 1.82% 1.74% 1.72% 1.72% 1.75% 1.77%
North Shore (Total) 83,500 86,121 90,202 95,424 103,413 111,299 119,209 127,150 2.71% 1.62% 1.48% 1.38% 1.30% 1.45% 1.70%
Value Added Per FTE ($) Average Annual Growth Rate

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology $ 108,645 $ 109,240 $ 109,826 $ 110,610 $ 112,676 $ 114,730 $ 116,274 $ 117,894 0.36% 0.37% 0.36% 0.27% 0.28% 0.32% 0.33%
Education $ 50,462 $ 50,934 $ 51,411 $ 52,210 $ 53,938 $ 55,633 $ 57,456 $ 59,347 0.68% 0.65% 0.62% 0.65% 0.65% 0.64% 0.65%
Sports & Performance $ 62,287 $ 62,773 $ 63,262 $ 64,414 $ 66,937 $ 69,041 $ 71,298 $ 73,618 0.67% 0.77% 0.62% 0.65% 0.64% 0.67% 0.67%
Financial & Professional $ 86,693 $ 87,216 $ 91,135 $ 88,864 $ 91,171 $ 93,566 $ 95,895 $ 98,126 0.50% 0.51% 0.52% 0.49% 0.46% 0.50% 0.50%
Health $ 58,836 $ 59,388 $ 57,779 $ 60,767 $ 62,642 $ 64,718 $ 66,885 $ 69,057 0.65% 0.61% 0.65% 0.66% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64%
Total (TBAP) $ 82,139 $ 82,728 $ 84,528 $ 84,427 $ 86,817 $ 89,337 $ 91,818 $ 94,336 0.55% 0.56% 0.57% 0.55% 0.54% 0.56% 0.56%
North Shore (Total) $ 88,970 $ 88,224 $ 86,148 $ 87,116 $ 89,476 $ 91,915 $ 94,339 $ 96,799 -0.42% 0.54% 0.54% 0.52% 0.52% 0.53% 0.34%
Output Per FTE ($) Average Annual Growth Rate

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2006-2012 2006-2013 2006-2014 2006-2015 2006-2016 2006-2017
High Technology 195,740 196,868 197,983 199,583 203,725 207,254 210,880 213,901 0.39% 0.41% 0.34% 0.35% 0.28% 0.35% 0.36%
Education 62,018 62,595 63,178 64,148 66,181 68,340 70,614 72,967 0.68% 0.63% 0.64% 0.66% 0.66% 0.65% 0.65%
Health 76,894 77,613 78,340 79,411 81,934 84,604 87,302 90,131 0.65% 0.63% 0.64% 0.63% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64%
Total (TBAP) 135,641 136,682 140,476 139,766 143,966 148,281 152,805 157,358 0.60% 0.59% 0.59% 0.60% 0.59% 0.59% 0.60%
North Shore (Total) 154,156 153,016 149,565 151,702 156,170 160,828 165,625 170,492 -0.32% 0.58% 0.59% 0.59% 0.58% 0.59% 0.40%
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
51
FINAL
September 2008
TABLE 5-3: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS – AUCKLAND REGION
AUCKLAND REGION
NZ$'000 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 4,933,057 5,075,849 5,223,329 5,695,623 6,518,135 7,476,945 8,618,147 9,988,694 2.92% 2.73% 2.78% 2.88% 3.00% 2.85% 2.86%
Education 973,834 999,533 1,025,909 1,109,290 1,254,498 1,406,208 1,564,059 1,726,966 2.64% 2.49% 2.31% 2.15% 2.00% 2.24% 2.32%
Sports & Performance 950,888 981,367 1,012,823 1,113,379 1,298,734 1,508,161 1,749,439 2,029,406 3.21% 3.13% 3.04% 3.01% 3.01% 3.05% 3.08%
Health 2,465,871 2,519,443 2,574,194 2,745,786 3,039,801 3,333,590 3,626,651 3,911,424 2.17% 2.06% 1.86% 1.70% 1.52% 1.78% 1.86%
Total (TBAP) 23,549,908 24,197,748 24,864,262 26,981,568 30,696,134 34,791,780 39,374,905 44,533,273 2.76% 2.61% 2.54% 2.51% 2.49% 2.54% 2.58%
ARC (Total industry) 98,421,000 101,071,111 103,796,822 112,451,000 126,956,000 142,479,000 159,182,000 177,178,000 2.70% 2.46% 2.33% 2.24% 2.17% 2.30% 2.38%
TBAP Share of ARC 23.93% 23.94% 23.95% 23.99% 24.18% 24.42% 24.74% 25.13%

NZ$'000 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 2,270,353 2,338,008 2,407,907 2,631,900 3,033,279 3,503,383 4,061,209 4,733,553 3.00% 2.88% 2.92% 3.00% 3.11% 2.98% 2.98%
Education 737,600 756,997 776,905 839,824 949,994 1,064,499 1,183,700 1,306,874 2.63% 2.50% 2.30% 2.15% 2.00% 2.24% 2.31%
Sports & Performance 571,290 589,718 608,740 669,570 781,431 908,048 1,054,010 1,223,755 3.23% 3.14% 3.05% 3.03% 3.03% 3.06% 3.09%
Health 1,746,710 1,785,095 1,714,365 1,947,350 2,156,912 2,366,784 2,575,465 2,778,205 2.20% 2.07% 1.87% 1.70% 1.53% 1.79% 1.87%
Total (TBAP) 14,295,448 14,684,207 14,973,998 16,352,536 18,590,388 21,041,184 23,756,598 26,789,478 2.73% 2.60% 2.51% 2.46% 2.43% 2.50% 2.54%
ARC (Total industry) 52,154,000 53,518,508 54,918,716 59,343,000 66,909,000 74,965,000 83,585,000 92,829,000 2.62% 2.43% 2.30% 2.20% 2.12% 2.26% 2.33%
TBAP Share of ARC 27.41% 27.44% 27.27% 27.56% 27.78% 28.07% 28.42% 28.86%

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 25,260 25,891 26,540 28,606 32,175 36,317 41,207 47,062 2.52% 2.38% 2.45% 2.56% 2.69% 2.52% 2.52%
Education 14,379 14,661 14,950 15,849 17,351 18,827 20,272 21,666 1.97% 1.83% 1.65% 1.49% 1.34% 1.58% 1.65%
Health 30,170 30,642 31,122 32,608 35,013 37,225 39,238 40,985 1.57% 1.43% 1.23% 1.06% 0.88% 1.15% 1.23%
Total (TBAP) 168,204 171,799 171,328 187,017 206,624 227,354 249,684 273,981 2.14% 2.01% 1.93% 1.89% 1.87% 1.93% 1.97%
ARC (Total industry) 616,094 628,661 641,504 681,756 747,668 814,958 884,392 956,366 2.05% 1.86% 1.74% 1.65% 1.58% 1.71% 1.77%
TBAP Share of ARC 27.30% 27.33% 26.71% 27.43% 27.64% 27.90% 28.23% 28.65%

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology $ 89,881 $ 90,303 $ 90,727 $ 92,005 $ 94,276 $ 96,467 $ 98,556 $ 100,582 0.47% 0.49% 0.46% 0.43% 0.41% 0.45% 0.45%
Education $ 51,299 $ 51,632 $ 51,968 $ 52,988 $ 54,751 $ 56,542 $ 58,390 $ 60,320 0.65% 0.66% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65%
Financial & Professional$ 96,975 $ 97,453 $ 102,324 $ 99,393 $ 101,869 $ 104,318 $ 106,701 $ 109,012 0.49% 0.49% 0.48% 0.45% 0.43% 0.46% 0.47%
Health $ 57,896 $ 58,256 $ 55,085 $ 59,720 $ 61,604 $ 63,581 $ 65,637 $ 67,785 0.62% 0.62% 0.63% 0.64% 0.65% 0.64% 0.63%
Total (TBAP) $ 84,989 $ 85,473 $ 87,399 $ 87,439 $ 89,972 $ 92,548 $ 95,147 $ 97,779 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 0.56% 0.55% 0.56% 0.56%
ARC (Total industry) $ 84,653 $ 85,131 $ 85,609 $ 87,044 $ 89,490 $ 91,986 $ 94,511 $ 97,064 0.56% 0.56% 0.55% 0.54% 0.53% 0.55% 0.55%

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2006-2012 2006-2013 2006-2014 2006-2015 2006-2016 2006-2017
High Technology 195,294 196,049 196,808 199,106 202,586 205,881 209,142 212,247 0.39% 0.35% 0.32% 0.31% 0.30% 0.32% 0.33%
Education 67,728 68,175 68,624 69,990 72,300 74,692 77,152 79,710 0.66% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65%
Health 81,734 82,222 82,713 84,206 86,820 89,553 92,427 95,434 0.60% 0.61% 0.62% 0.63% 0.64% 0.63% 0.62%
Total (TBAP) 140,008 140,849 145,126 144,273 148,561 153,029 157,699 162,541 0.60% 0.59% 0.59% 0.60% 0.61% 0.60% 0.60%
ARC (Total industry) 159,750 160,772 161,802 164,943 169,803 174,830 179,990 185,262 0.64% 0.58% 0.59% 0.58% 0.58% 0.58% 0.59%
52
FINAL
September 2008
TABLE 5-4: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: NEW ZEALAND
NEW ZEALAND
NZ$'000 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006/7 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 12,121,985 12,457,609 12,803,714 13,908,620 15,817,983 18,032,292 20,648,412 23,775,066 2.77% 2.61% 2.65% 2.75% 2.86% 2.72% 2.73%
Education 2,828,872 2,887,107 2,946,541 3,132,285 3,446,375 3,766,319 4,093,151 4,423,083 2.06% 1.93% 1.79% 1.68% 1.56% 1.74% 1.80%
Sports & Performance 2,391,892 2,461,082 2,532,274 2,758,450 3,172,953 3,645,399 4,196,830 4,845,725 2.89% 2.84% 2.81% 2.86% 2.92% 2.86% 2.86%
Health 7,774,846 7,903,720 8,034,729 8,440,934 9,098,498 9,722,767 10,315,971 10,856,944 1.66% 1.51% 1.34% 1.19% 1.03% 1.27% 1.34%
Total (TBAP) 53,676,050 54,975,175 56,307,877 60,516,920 67,672,616 75,470,814 84,105,011 93,731,735 2.42% 2.26% 2.21% 2.19% 2.19% 2.21% 2.25%
NZ(Total industry) 290,970,000 298,270,902 305,782,680 329,639,000 367,217,000 407,634,000 451,118,000 498,009,000 2.53% 2.18% 2.11% 2.05% 2.00% 2.08% 2.17%
TBAP Share of NZ 18.45% 18.43% 18.41% 18.36% 18.43% 18.51% 18.64% 18.82%

NZ$'000 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 5,061,107 5,209,388 5,362,518 5,852,772 6,734,463 7,769,792 9,006,108 10,499,613 2.95% 2.85% 2.90% 3.00% 3.12% 2.97% 2.96%
Education 2,187,606 2,232,367 2,278,045 2,420,762 2,663,217 2,909,116 3,160,526 3,414,346 2.05% 1.93% 1.78% 1.67% 1.56% 1.73% 1.80%
Sports & Performance 1,439,911 1,481,698 1,524,697 1,661,331 1,911,585 2,197,601 2,531,424 2,924,679 2.90% 2.85% 2.83% 2.87% 2.93% 2.87% 2.87%
Health 5,617,922 5,711,157 5,652,033 6,099,831 6,574,076 7,024,692 7,451,395 7,839,081 1.66% 1.51% 1.33% 1.19% 1.02% 1.26% 1.34%
Total (TBAP) 33,078,985 34,513,866 34,513,866 37,204,799 41,536,724 46,222,988 51,367,311 57,050,068 2.38% 2.23% 2.16% 2.13% 2.12% 2.16% 2.20%
TBAP Share of NZ 22.48% 20.88% 18.82% 22.51% 22.65% 22.81% 23.01% 23.28%

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology 57,648 59,087 60,567 65,271 73,519 83,101 94,435 108,029 2.52% 2.41% 2.48% 2.59% 2.73% 2.55% 2.54%
Education 42,323 42,912 43,509 45,352 48,300 51,090 53,746 56,214 1.39% 1.27% 1.13% 1.02% 0.90% 1.08% 1.14%
Health 99,751 100,752 101,763 104,859 109,413 113,154 116,166 118,262 1.00% 0.85% 0.67% 0.53% 0.36% 0.60% 0.68%
Total (TBAP) 406,351 413,362 413,270 442,815 479,228 517,055 557,277 600,531 1.73% 1.59% 1.53% 1.51% 1.51% 1.53% 1.57%
TBAP Share of NZ 22.07% 22.05% 21.66% 21.99% 22.04% 22.11% 22.22% 22.37% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2011-2031 2006-2031
High Technology $ 87,794 $ 88,165 $ 88,538 $ 89,669 $ 91,601 $ 93,498 $ 95,368 $ 97,193 0.42% 0.43% 0.41% 0.40% 0.38% 0.40% 0.41%
Education $ 51,689 $ 52,022 $ 52,358 $ 53,377 $ 55,139 $ 56,941 $ 58,804 $ 60,738 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65%
Financial & Professional$ 98,917 $ 99,430 $ 103,759 $ 101,511 $ 104,144 $ 106,770 $ 109,377 $ 111,929 0.52% 0.51% 0.50% 0.48% 0.46% 0.49% 0.50%
Health $ 56,320 $ 56,685 $ 55,541 $ 58,172 $ 60,085 $ 62,081 $ 64,144 $ 66,286 0.65% 0.65% 0.66% 0.66% 0.66% 0.65% 0.65%
Total (TBAP) $ 81,405 $ 83,495 $ 83,514 $ 84,019 $ 86,674 $ 89,397 $ 92,176 $ 94,999 0.63% 0.62% 0.62% 0.61% 0.61% 0.62% 0.62%
NZ(Total industry) $ 79,908 $ 88,170 $ 96,119 $ 82,070 $ 84,349 $ 86,651 $ 88,979 $ 91,319 0.54% 0.55% 0.54% 0.53% 0.52% 0.54% 0.54%

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-2011 2006-2012 2006-2013 2006-2014 2006-2015 2006-2016 2006-2017
High Technology 210,277 210,835 211,396 213,090 215,154 216,992 218,652 220,081 0.27% 0.19% 0.17% 0.15% 0.13% 0.16% 0.18%
Education 66,840 67,280 67,722 69,066 71,353 73,719 76,157 78,683 0.66% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65%
Health 77,943 78,447 78,955 80,498 83,157 85,925 88,804 91,804 0.65% 0.65% 0.66% 0.66% 0.67% 0.66% 0.66%
Total (TBAP) 132,093 132,995 136,250 136,664 141,212 145,963 150,921 156,081 0.68% 0.66% 0.66% 0.67% 0.67% 0.67% 0.67%
0.71% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.64%
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September 2008
TABLE 5-5: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (NORTH SHORE: AUCKLAND REGION)
Output per Targeted Business Sector
2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 16.84% 16.78% 16.71% 16.51% 16.31% 16.05% 15.78% 15.48%
Education 6.90% 6.87% 6.85% 6.77% 6.65% 6.54% 6.44% 6.34%
Sports & Performance 12.27% 12.20% 12.14% 11.95% 11.74% 11.50% 11.26% 11.02%
Financial & Professional 12.71% 12.68% 12.66% 12.59% 12.51% 12.44% 12.38% 12.33%
Health 15.37% 15.33% 15.30% 15.20% 15.05% 14.91% 14.75% 14.59%
Total (Targeted) 13.59% 13.56% 13.52% 13.42% 13.29% 13.17% 13.06% 12.95%
Value added - Targeted Business Sectors

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 20.31% 20.21% 20.11% 19.81% 19.38% 18.96% 18.47% 18.01%
Education 7.41% 7.39% 7.36% 7.28% 7.16% 7.04% 6.93% 6.82%
Health 16.60% 16.56% 16.95% 16.40% 16.22% 16.06% 15.91% 15.74%
Total (Targeted) 13.56% 13.52% 13.51% 13.37% 13.24% 13.12% 13.01% 12.90%
Employment (Targeted Business Sectors)

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 16.8% 16.7% 16.6% 16.5% 16.2% 15.9% 15.7% 15.4%
Education 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9%

Health 16.3% 16.2% 16.2% 16.1% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.5%
Total (Targeted) 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.8% 13.7% 13.6% 13.5% 13.4%
TABLE 5-6: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (AUCKLAND REGION: NEW ZEALAND)
% OF REGION (AUCK:NZ)
Output per Targeted Business Sector

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 40.70% 40.74% 40.80% 40.95% 41.21% 41.46% 41.74% 42.01%
Education 34.42% 34.62% 34.82% 35.41% 36.40% 37.34% 38.21% 39.04%
Health 31.72% 31.88% 32.04% 32.53% 33.41% 34.29% 35.16% 36.03%
Total (Targeted) 43.87% 44.02% 44.16% 44.59% 45.36% 46.10% 46.82% 47.51%
Value added - Targeted Business Sectors

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 44.86% 44.88% 44.90% 44.97% 45.04% 45.09% 45.09% 45.08%
Education 33.72% 33.91% 34.10% 34.69% 35.67% 36.59% 37.45% 38.28%
Health 31.09% 31.26% 30.33% 31.92% 32.81% 33.69% 34.56% 35.44%
Total (Targeted) 43.22% 42.55% 43.39% 43.95% 44.76% 45.52% 46.25% 46.96%
Employment (Targeted Business Sectors)

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.7% 43.6% 43.6%
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Education 34.0% 34.2% 34.4% 34.9% 35.9% 36.9% 37.7% 38.5%
Health 30.2% 30.4% 30.6% 31.1% 32.0% 32.9% 33.8% 34.7%
Total (Targeted) 41.4% 41.6% 41.5% 42.2% 43.1% 44.0% 44.8% 45.6%
TABLE 5-7: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: AREA BASED RATIOS

% OF TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS WITHIN EACH AREA
NORTH SHORE (% OF TARGETED)
Value Added Per FTE ($)
2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 25.95% 25.96% 25.96% 25.98% 26.05% 26.19% 26.46% 26.83%
Education 2.10% 2.09% 2.09% 2.08% 2.05% 2.01% 1.96% 1.90%
Health 11.84% 11.78% 11.71% 11.53% 11.21% 10.85% 10.40% 9.90%
Total (Targeted) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
AUCKLAND REGION (% OF TARGETED)

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 20.95% 20.98% 21.01% 21.11% 21.23% 21.49% 21.89% 22.43%
Education 4.14% 4.13% 4.13% 4.11% 4.09% 4.04% 3.97% 3.88%
Health 10.47% 10.41% 10.35% 10.18% 9.90% 9.58% 9.21% 8.78%
Total (Targeted) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NEW ZEALAND (% OF TARGETED)

2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
High Technology 22.58% 22.66% 22.74% 22.98% 23.37% 23.89% 24.55% 25.37%
Education 5.27% 5.25% 5.23% 5.18% 5.09% 4.99% 4.87% 4.72%
Health 14.48% 14.38% 14.27% 13.95% 13.44% 12.88% 12.27% 11.58%
Total (Targeted) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
55
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September 2008
6 LIST OF REFERENCES
Bank of New Zealand Economic Outlook.
Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2002) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic
Consequences of Population Change. RAND, Santa Monica, California.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce). Website: http://www.bea.gov/regional/definitions/.
Meintjes C.J. Guidelines to Regional Socio-economic Analysis. Development Bank of Southern Africa. Development
Information Business Unit. Development Paper 145. ISBN 1 919692-58-4.
Fernández-Villaverde, J and Krueger, D. (2004) Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure
Survey Data. University of Pennsylvania & University of Frankfurt, CEPR, and NBER.
Guest, R., Bryant, J. and Scobie, G. (2003) Population Ageing in New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the
Optimal Rate of Saving. New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/10, Wellington.
Ministry of Health (2002) Health of Older People in New Zealand: A Statistical Reference. Ministry of Health,
Wellington.
New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) –Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion.
Statistics New Zealand.
WestPac – Economic Overview Q2, 2008.
56
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September 2008
7 APPENDIX 1.1: OVERVIEW OF EFM APPROACH

The construction of the EFM begins with the generation of economic accounts that are presented in the format of an
input-output table. For each industry and final demand (ie household consumption, exports and gross fixed capital
formation) category of the economy, these economic accounts cover:
• Intermediate inputs (ie as provided by other economic industries).

• Primary inputs (eg. wages and salaries, operating surplus and depreciation of fixed capital).
• Imports.
The economic accounts also cover key economic indicators including gross output, Gross Regional Production (GRP)
and full-time equivalent employees (FTEs). The following steps were required to generate the economic accounts:
Step 1: Construction of Input-Output Table

A multi-regional input-output table was constructed for the financial year ending 31 March 2004. The table was
generated by following the GRIT (Generating Regional Input-Output Tables) procedure as developed at the University
of Queensland by Jensen et al. (1979). In brief this required the following steps:
1. Statistics New Zealand’s (SNZ) 1995-96 Inter-Industry Study of the New Zealand Economy (the latest national
input-output table available) was updated to the 2004 financial year. Updating is conducted on a per industry
basis accounting for volume, price, and productivity changes over the intervening eight-year period.
2. The 2004 national input-output table was ‘regionalised’ so as to generate individual input-output tables for each
territorial authority within New Zealand. This regionalisation process is undertaken by estimating the degree of
regional self-sufficiency, with respect to each economic sector, relative to the nation as a whole. Simple
Location Quotients (SLQs)19 are used for this purpose. It can also be noted that all of the individual input-output
tables are connected by cross-boundary trade flows (ie inter-regional imports and exports).
Overall the 2004 input-output model for the North Shore covers 48 industries, eight primary inputs and eight final
demands.
Step 2: Estimation of Gross Regional Product

20
Based on the multi-regional input-output tables generated in Step 1, estimates of Gross Regional Product (GRP), and
its contribution from individual industries, were determined. As a means of validation, the estimated values were
then compared with historical counterparts for the New Zealand economy.
19
Mathematically, the SLQ for a given industry, i, is calculated as:
 Empir / Empin
( ) 
SLQi = 
 Emp r / Emp n
( ) 

where Empir is the total number of people employed in the industry in the district or region in question, Empin is the total number of people
employed in the industry in the nation, Emp r is total employment in the region or district, and Empn is the total employment in the nation .
All employment figures are measured in FTE equivalents excluding those in management structures. Stated simple, the SLQ is North Shore industry
is greater than 1 (SLQ>1), then the industry is deemed to be ‘strong’ in the local economy (i.e. able to satisfy local demand and export). Conversely,
industries with a SLQ less than 1 are deemed to be ‘weak’ and therefore unable to satisfy local demand.
20
GRP is a measure of the total flows of goods and services produced by an economy over a year. It is obtained in input-output terms by summing
the value of the primary inputs economy-wide and subtracting total imports. It excludes the value of intermediate goods and services as these are
implicitly included in the price of final goods.
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September 2008
Step 3: Estimation of Economic Multipliers
The multi-regional input-output table generated in Step 1 further enabled calculation of a full set of economic
multipliers for each category of economic industry situated within the North Shore. These multipliers include both
21
Type I (direct and indirect) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced) multipliers, and cover the categories of output ,
value added, and employment. Indirect multiplier impacts are those that result from the repercussionary effects of
supply chain processing (ie backward linkages), while induced multiplier impacts account for changes in consumer
spending brought about by payment of wages and salaries.
Having defined the base economic accounts for the North Shore, it is then possible to derive forecasts of future
economic change for the city based on scenario assumptions. A key feature of the EFM model is that it establishes not
only direct economic growth and/or decline in key economic industries, but also the indirect impacts associated with
flow-on effects. Growth in the Education industry, for example, will most likely result in growth in other activities,
such as insurance provision and professional cleaning, as a result of supply chain purchases. Furthermore, if
additional workers are required as a result of this growth, then additional expenditure by households will occur. This,
in turn, will result in further flow-on growth, particularly services supporting households. The model furthermore
captures economic inter-linkages between North Shore and the rest of the New Zealand economy. In this way, the
implications of growth in key New Zealand industries within the North Shore economy are also captured.
The EFM model essentially works by taking estimates of future household consumption and export demand for 2006,
2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, and determining the level of economic activity required to meet these demands. The
repercussionary or flow-on implications are then calculated using input-output mathematics22, with growth rates by
the 48 industries for each five-year period from 2006 to 2026 being the major output. These growth rates, with
adjustments for any assumed productivity gains, are then used to estimate the total future economic implications
associated with growth.
21
Output is a measure of the total flow of goods and services within an economy. This includes intermediate demand, primary inputs and final
demands. It should not be confused with value added (i.e. GRP), which does not include intermediate demand.
22
Input-output tables have been widely used throughout New Zealand to estimate economic impact e.g. for events such as the America’s Cup and
the proposed 2011 Rugby World Cup.
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September 2008
8 APPENDIX 2.1: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS- CLASSIFICATION

HIGH TECHNOLOGY SECTOR EDUCATION SECTOR SPORTS & HIGH PERFORMANCE HEALTH SECTOR FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
C243000 Recorded Media Manufacturing and Publishing C294200 Toy and Sporting Good C254300 Medicinal and K732100 Banks
N842400 Special School Education Manufacturing Pharmaceutical Product
Manufacturing
C252000 Petroleum and Coal Product Manufacturing nec N843100 Higher Education P931110 Racing Clubs and Track O861100 Hospitals (except Psychiatric K732200 Building Societies
Operation (excluding Training and Hospitals)
Ownership)
C253200 Industrial Gas Manufacturing N843200 Technical and Further P931200 Sports Grounds and Facilities O861200 Psychiatric Hospitals K732300 Credit Unions
Education nec
C253300 Synthetic Resin Manufacturing N844000 Other Education P931900 Sports and Services to Sports O861300 Nursing Homes K732900 Deposit Taking Financiers nec
nec
C253400 Organic Industrial Chemical Manufacturing nec O862100 General Practice Medical K733000 Other Financiers
Services
C253500 Inorganic Industrial Chemical Manufacturing nec O862200 Specialist Medical Services K741100 Life
C254900 Chemical Product Manufacturing nec O862300 Dental Services K741200 Superannuation
C281300 Automotive Electrical and Instrument Manufacturing O863100 Pathology Services K742100 Health
C281900 Automotive Component Manufacturing nec O863200 Optometry and Optical K742200 General
Dispensing
C282100 Shipbuilding O863300 Ambulance Services K751100 Financial Asset Broking Services
C282200 Boatbuilding O863500 Physiotherapy Services K751900 Services to Finance and Investment nec
C282400 Aircraft Manufacturing O863600 Chiropractic Services K752000 Services to Insurance
C283100 Photographic and Optical Good Manufacturing O863900 Health Services nec L782100 Architectural Services
C283200 Medical and Surgical Equipment Manufacturing L782200 Surveying Services
C283900 Professional and Scientific Equipment Manufacturing nec L782300 Consultant Engineering Services
C284100 Computer and Business Machine Manufacturing L782900 Technical Services nec
C284200 Telecommunication Broadcasting & Transceiving Equipment L783100 Data Processing Services
Manufacturing
C284900 Electronic Equipment Manufacturing nec L783300 Computer Maintenance Services
C285900 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing nec L783400 Computer Consultancy Services
C286300 Food Processing Machinery Manufacturing L784100 Legal Services
C286400 Machine Tool and Part Manufacturing L784200 Accounting Services
C286600 Pump and Compressor Manufacturing L785100 Advertising Services
C286700 Commercial Space Heating and Cooling Equipment Manufacturing L785200 Commercial Art and Display Services
C286900 Industrial Machinery & Equipment Manufacturing nec L785300 Market Research Services
J712000 Telecommunication Services L785400 Business Administrative Services
L781000 Scientific Research L785500 Business Management Services
L783200 Information Storage & Retrieval Services L786100 Employment Placement Services
L786300 Secretarial Services
Q962100 Business & Professional Associations
59
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September 2008
9 APPENDIX 2.2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS - DATA
NORTH SHORE CITY GEOGRAPHICAL UNITS AS A PERCENTAGE SHARE OF AUCKLAND REGION LOCATION QUOTIENTS: NORTH SHORE AND THE AUCKLAND REGION
Sector 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sector 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
High Technology 16.8% 17.2% 17.3% 17.6% 18.1% 16.9% 16.5% High Technology 0.93 0.87 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.99 0.89
Education 15.0% 15.4% 15.4% 15.9% 16.1% 15.8% 15.9% Education 0.98 1.00 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.99 1.00
Sports 17.2% 17.2% 18.1% 18.6% 20.3% 20.2% 20.5% Sports 1.36 1.34 1.52 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.44
Health 17.7% 17.5% 17.6% 17.6% 18.0% 18.6% 18.5% Health 1.21 1.17 1.11 1.20 1.27 1.33 1.30
Financial & Professional Services 19.4% 19.5% 19.4% 19.6% 19.6% 19.3% 19.4% Financial & Professional Services 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.87 0.89 0.95
Other 15.6% 15.7% 15.9% 15.9% 16.1% 16.2% 16.3% Other 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
Total 16.3% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.8% 16.9% 16.9%
NORTH SHORE CITY GEOGRAPHICAL UNITS AS A PERCENTAGE SHARE OF NEW ZEALAND LOCATION QUOTIENTS: NORTH SHORE & NEW ZEALAND
Sector 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sector 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
High Technology 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.0% High Technology 1.21 1.11 1.17 1.21 1.24 1.29 1.17
Education 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% Education 0.87 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.99
Sports 4.4% 4.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% Sports 1.41 1.41 1.57 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.43
Health 6.0% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% Health 1.01 1.00 0.95 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.16
Financial & Professional Services 8.7% 8.7% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.7% Financial & Professional Services 1.21 1.26 1.30 1.29 1.24 1.28 1.34
Other 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% Other 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.92
Total 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%
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September 2008
10 APPENDIX 2.3: VALUE & NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS
VALUE OF WORK ($)

SECTOR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TOTAL
Agriculture 155,640 78,000 144,000 60,500 272,942 - 11,000 722,082
Mining - - - - - - - -
Manufacturing 4,236,325 4,104,861 3,136,355 8,400,000 11,023,000 755,442 2,597,000 34,252,983
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 20,000 150,000 25,000 15,000 148,985 170,000 1,130,000 1,658,985
Construction 300,000 - 761,000 881,000 490,000 - 220,000 2,652,000
Wholesale Trade 5,594,063 14,156,200 13,826,000 6,559,000 44,360,000 30,254,600 29,893,500 144,643,363
Retail Trade 9,744,600 6,471,400 17,338,000 2,687,800 3,645,500 11,067,700 32,364,500 83,319,500
Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants 7,290,000 5,506,400 4,435,000 45,000 2,310,000 115,000 950,000 20,651,400
Transport & Storage 184,000 409,000 1,838,000 19,900 - 7,844,500 2,720,000 13,015,400
Communication Services - - - - - - - -
Finance & Insurance 110,000 - - - 800,000 - - 910,000
Property & Business Services 32,015,000 34,900,900 12,617,000 18,719,850 22,274,000 43,738,700 60,333,300 224,598,750
Government Administration & Defence - - 35,000 - - 2,500,000 32,000 2,567,000
Education 23,048,788 8,927,500 18,001,000 24,875,000 30,778,289 36,176,000 12,044,443 153,851,020
Health & Community Services 1,309,000 1,789,000 2,330,000 20,488,000 282,000 669,490 13,324,447 40,191,937
Cultural and Recreational Services 13,380,000 4,800,000 2,695,800 530,000 4,221,000 590,000 639,500 26,856,300
Personal and Other Services 20,000 1,500,000 503,500 - 660,000 10,450,000 330,000 13,463,500
TOTAL 97,407,416 82,793,261 77,685,655 83,281,050 121,265,716 144,331,432 156,589,690 763,354,220
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September 2008
NUMBER OF BUILDING CONSENTS (NON-RESIDENTIAL)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TOTAL
Agriculture 4 3 3 2 6 0 1 19
Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Manufacturing 14 11 7 10 11 3 6 62
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 1 5 2 1 10 3 2 24
Construction 1 0 4 6 5 0 2 18
Wholesale Trade 11 15 18 12 41 21 17 135
Retail Trade 17 11 15 10 10 14 8 85
Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants 4 4 9 1 3 2 1 24
Transport & Storage 3 4 9 1 0 7 4 28
Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Finance & Insurance 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Property & Business Services 19 21 13 21 14 24 14 126
Government Administration & Defence 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 3
Education 24 21 22 26 22 24 12 151
Health & Community Services 6 8 4 6 4 5 7 40
Cultural and Recreational Services 5 3 5 2 7 3 1 26
Personal and Other Services 1 3 4 0 4 4 2 18
TOTAL 111 109 116 98 138 111 78 761
62
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September 2008
11 APPENDIX 4.1: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE

Employment Projections [FTEs] % Change Between Periods Rank
OCCUPATIONS 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2006 - 2031 % #
Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators 5,217 5,722 6,231 6,746 7,267 7,808 9.7% 8.9% 8.3% 7.7% 7.4% 49.7% 18 3
Farmers and Farm Managers 84 87 93 98 104 106 3.6% 6.9% 5.4% 6.1% 1.9% 26.2% 42 42
Specialist Managers 10,962 12,024 13,092 14,150 15,207 16,282 9.7% 8.9% 8.1% 7.5% 7.1% 48.5% 20 1
Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 3,888 4,246 4,616 4,981 5,356 5,725 9.2% 8.7% 7.9% 7.5% 6.9% 47.2% 22 6
Arts and Media Professionals 1,182 1,304 1,435 1,569 1,712 1,865 10.3% 10.0% 9.3% 9.1% 8.9% 57.8% 6 27
Business, Human Resource and Marketing Professionals 7,089 7,777 8,478 9,188 9,931 10,706 9.7% 9.0% 8.4% 8.1% 7.8% 51.0% 16 2
Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals 3,498 3,877 4,268 4,675 5,110 5,581 10.8% 10.1% 9.5% 9.3% 9.2% 59.5% 3 5
Education Professionals 5,250 5,617 5,984 6,317 6,615 6,869 7.0% 6.5% 5.6% 4.7% 3.8% 30.8% 41 10
Health Professionals 3,603 3,857 4,116 4,352 4,566 4,751 7.0% 6.7% 5.7% 4.9% 4.1% 31.9% 40 15
ICT Professionals 3,006 3,321 3,655 4,004 4,379 4,783 10.5% 10.1% 9.5% 9.4% 9.2% 59.1% 4 7
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals 1,866 2,038 2,218 2,400 2,585 2,777 9.2% 8.8% 8.2% 7.7% 7.4% 48.8% 19 21
Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians 2,199 2,422 2,643 2,872 3,112 3,356 10.1% 9.1% 8.7% 8.4% 7.8% 52.6% 14 14
Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers 2,058 2,253 2,454 2,662 2,878 3,099 9.5% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.7% 50.6% 17 17
Construction Trades Workers 2,085 2,360 2,622 2,867 3,096 3,308 13.2% 11.1% 9.3% 8.0% 6.8% 58.7% 5 13
Electro- tech. & Telecommunications Trades Workers 1,161 1,307 1,456 1,602 1,746 1,895 12.6% 11.4% 10.0% 9.0% 8.5% 63.2% 2 26
Food Trades Workers 1,188 1,312 1,442 1,578 1,716 1,859 10.4% 9.9% 9.4% 8.7% 8.3% 56.5% 8 28
Skilled Animal and Horticultural Workers 750 819 890 961 1,026 1,090 9.2% 8.7% 8.0% 6.8% 6.2% 45.3% 25 37
Other Technicians and Trades Workers 2,520 2,760 2,978 3,201 3,420 3,645 9.5% 7.9% 7.5% 6.8% 6.6% 44.6% 28 16
Health and Welfare Support Workers 576 624 673 728 781 829 8.3% 7.9% 8.2% 7.3% 6.1% 43.9% 30 39
Carers and Aides 2,241 2,409 2,582 2,745 2,896 3,035 7.5% 7.2% 6.3% 5.5% 4.8% 35.4% 38 24
Hospitality Workers 1,836 2,055 2,291 2,541 2,808 3,092 11.9% 11.5% 10.9% 10.5% 10.1% 68.4% 1 12
Protective Service Workers 1,746 1,876 2,004 2,131 2,243 2,344 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 34.2% 39 30
Sports and Personal Service Workers 1,923 2,117 2,317 2,518 2,727 2,956 10.1% 9.4% 8.7% 8.3% 8.4% 53.7% 10 18
Office Managers and Program Administrators 1,824 1,994 2,170 2,340 2,515 2,693 9.3% 8.8% 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 47.6% 21 23
Personal Assistants and Secretaries 1,746 1,917 2,093 2,273 2,452 2,642 9.8% 9.2% 8.6% 7.9% 7.7% 51.3% 15 22
General Clerical Workers 3,597 3,930 4,261 4,595 4,924 5,254 9.3% 8.4% 7.8% 7.2% 6.7% 46.1% 23 9
Inquiry Clerks and Receptionists 2,031 2,214 2,396 2,580 2,768 2,950 9.0% 8.2% 7.7% 7.3% 6.6% 45.2% 26 20
Numerical Clerks 3,024 3,302 3,580 3,855 4,134 4,417 9.2% 8.4% 7.7% 7.2% 6.8% 46.1% 24 11
Clerical and Office Support Workers 1,026 1,113 1,204 1,294 1,383 1,477 8.5% 8.2% 7.5% 6.9% 6.8% 44.0% 29 33
Other Clerical and Administrative Workers 2,199 2,396 2,592 2,790 2,990 3,193 9.0% 8.2% 7.6% 7.2% 6.8% 45.2% 27 19
Sales Representatives and Agents 4,242 4,604 4,954 5,298 5,630 5,945 8.5% 7.6% 6.9% 6.3% 5.6% 40.1% 35 8
Sales Assistants and Salespersons 5,928 6,421 6,907 7,374 7,830 8,261 8.3% 7.6% 6.8% 6.2% 5.5% 39.4% 36 4
63
FINAL
September 2008
Employment Projections [FTEs] % Change Between Periods Rank
OCCUPATIONS 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2006 - 2031 % #
Sales Support Workers 1,542 1,676 1,810 1,941 2,073 2,196 8.7% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.9% 42.4% 32 29
Machine and Stationary Plant Operators 1,185 1,273 1,364 1,454 1,547 1,635 7.4% 7.1% 6.6% 6.4% 5.7% 38.0% 37 34
Mobile Plant Operators 204 225 249 273 292 312 10.3% 10.7% 9.6% 7.0% 6.8% 52.9% 13 41
Road and Rail Drivers 1,278 1,387 1,492 1,597 1,699 1,796 8.5% 7.6% 7.0% 6.4% 5.7% 40.5% 34 32
Storepersons 1,032 1,121 1,209 1,292 1,378 1,457 8.6% 7.9% 6.9% 6.7% 5.7% 41.2% 33 35
Cleaners and Laundry Workers 1,392 1,539 1,689 1,844 2,014 2,184 10.6% 9.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.4% 56.9% 7 25
Construction and Mining Labourers 528 589 653 712 770 825 11.6% 10.9% 9.0% 8.1% 7.1% 56.3% 9 38
Factory Process Workers 1,098 1,207 1,317 1,436 1,556 1,682 9.9% 9.1% 9.0% 8.4% 8.1% 53.2% 12 31
Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers 339 366 394 425 454 483 8.0% 7.7% 7.9% 6.8% 6.4% 42.5% 31 40
Food Preparation Assistants 645 710 775 848 919 989 10.1% 9.2% 9.4% 8.4% 7.6% 53.3% 11 36
Other Labourers - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43 43
Not Elsewhere Included - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43 43
TOTAL OCCUPATIONS 100,788 110,168 119,647 129,107 138,609 148,152 9.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9% 47.0%
64
FINAL
September 2008
12 APPENDIX 4.2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ EXPORT PER SECTOR
- 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
Horticulture & fruit growing 4.32
Livestock & cropping farm ing 0.01
Dairy cattle farm ing 0.02
Other farm ing 0.24
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping -
Forestry & logging 0.72
Fishing 0.55
Mining & quarrying 0.02
Oil & gas exploration & extraction -
Meat & m eat prod m anuf 0.62
Dairy prod m anuf 47.67
Other food m anuf 38.75
Beverage, m alt & tobacco m anuf 2.21
Textile & apparel m anuf 52.97
Wood prod m anuf 17.14
Paper & paper prod m anuf 21.42
Printing, publishing & recorded m edia 4.42
Petroleum & industrial chem m anuf 13.57
Rubber, plastic & other chem m anuf 40.77
Non-m etallic m ineral prod m anuf 2.37
Basic m etal m anuf 46.75
Sheet & fabricated m etal prod m anuf 42.96
Trans equipm ent m anuf 25.05
Machinery & equipm ent m anuf 92.38

Furniture & other m anuf 15.49
Electricity generation & supply 0.00
Gas supply -
Water supply -
Construction 4.13
Wholesale trade 83.11
Retail trade 34.22
Accom m odation, restaurants & bars 44.26
Road trans 8.17
Water & rail trans 41.74
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage 87.45
Com m unication svcs 17.98
Finance 2.38
Insurance 0.75
Svcs to finance & investm ent 1.45
Real estate 2.32
Owner-occupied dwellings -
Business svcs 49.36
Central governm ent 0.33

Local governm ent 0.05
Education 0.01
Health & com m unity svcs 0.26
Cultural & recreational svcs 16.16
Personal & other com m unity svcs 5.44
65
FINAL
September 2008
13 APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES
PROJECTED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

SECTOR 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Horticulture & fruit growing -1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Livestock & cropping farming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dairy cattle farming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other farming -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0%
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Forestry & logging 4.6% 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Fishing 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mining & quarrying -2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oil & gas exploration & extraction -7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Meat & meat prod manufacturing 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Dairy prod manufacturing 7.2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Other food manufacturing 5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%
Textile & apparel manufacturing 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wood prod manufacturing 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Paper & paper prod manufacturing 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Printing, publishing & recorded media 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Basic metal manufacturing 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 0.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Trans equipment manufacturing 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%
Furniture & other manufacturing 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Electricity generation & supply 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gas supply 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Water supply 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Construction 11.7% 7.4% 5.4% 4.3% 3.6%
Wholesale trade 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Retail trade 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 8.3% 7.1% 6.3% 5.8% 5.4%
Road trans -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Water & rail trans -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1%
Air trans, services to trans & storage 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%
Communication services -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.4%
Finance -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -0.2%
Insurance -1.4% -1.4% -1.2% -0.9% -0.6%
Services to finance & investment 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
Real estate -2.0% -2.1% -2.0% -1.8% -1.6%
Owner-occupied dwellings 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Business services 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
Central government -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Local government -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Education 252.4% 17.7% 11.2% 8.5% 7.0%
Health & community services 44.4% 15.6% 10.5% 8.2% 6.9%
Cultural & recreational services 11.3% 9.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.7%
Personal & other community services 12.3% 9.8% 8.5% 7.7% 7.2%
66
FINAL
September 2008
14 APPENDIX 4.4: PROJECTED GROSS OUTPUT PER SECTOR
GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS RANKING CONTRIBUTION - %

[$2004MILLION]
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Horticulture & fruit growing 11 11 12 12 13 14 39 39 39 40 40 40 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Livestock & cropping farming 5 6 6 7 7 8 42 42 42 42 42 42 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dairy cattle farming 7 7 8 9 9 10 41 41 41 41 41 41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other farming 1 1 1 1 1 1 46 46 46 46 46 46 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping 4 4 5 5 6 6 43 43 43 43 43 43 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Forestry & logging 12 15 16 17 19 20 38 38 38 38 38 38 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Fishing 3 4 4 4 4 4 44 44 44 44 44 44 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mining & quarrying 2 3 3 3 4 4 45 45 45 45 45 45 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil & gas exploration & extraction 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 48 48 48 48 48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Meat & meat prod manuf 90 100 109 119 128 137 30 30 30 30 30 28 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Dairy prod manuf 178 234 275 323 379 446 21 19 15 15 14 14 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9
Other food manuf 134 155 176 200 227 257 23 23 23 23 23 23 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf 13 15 17 19 21 23 37 37 37 37 37 37 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Textile & apparel manuf 104 112 118 124 130 136 26 26 26 28 28 29 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Wood prod manuf 71 80 87 97 105 113 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Paper & paper prod manuf 65 73 81 89 98 107 33 33 33 32 32 32 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Printing, publishing & recorded media 280 313 347 383 421 461 12 12 12 13 13 13 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf 36 39 42 45 49 52 36 36 36 36 36 36 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf 270 287 307 327 347 368 13 13 14 14 16 16 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf 55 64 73 83 93 103 35 35 34 34 34 33 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Basic metal manuf 66 76 81 87 94 101 32 32 32 33 33 34 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf 211 236 265 297 331 368 17 17 19 18 17 17 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
Trans equipment manuf 97 110 117 123 129 136 28 27 28 29 29 30 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Machinery & equipment manuf 215 265 332 416 524 662 16 14 13 12 10 9 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8
Furniture & other manuf 121 137 151 165 179 192 24 24 24 24 24 24 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Electricity generation & supply 96 105 115 125 134 142 29 29 29 27 27 27 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
67
FINAL
September 2008
GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS RANKING CONTRIBUTION - %
[$2004MILLION]
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Gas supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 47 47 47 47 47 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Water supply 10 11 12 13 14 15 40 40 40 39 39 39 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Construction 887 1046 1206 1366 1526 1686 5 4 4 3 3 3 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.1
Wholesale trade 1898 2113 2338 2564 2792 3020 1 1 1 1 1 1 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7
Retail trade 818 909 1005 1102 1201 1298 6 6 6 6 6 6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 154 179 208 240 276 316 22 22 22 22 22 22 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
Road trans 119 132 145 159 173 187 25 25 25 25 25 25 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Water & rail trans 64 67 69 72 75 78 34 34 35 35 35 35 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Air trans, services to trans & storage 184 207 232 258 287 319 20 21 21 21 21 21 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Communication services 898 984 1075 1166 1258 1347 4 5 5 5 5 5 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7
Finance 215 239 265 291 317 344 15 16 18 19 19 19 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Insurance 320 353 386 419 452 482 11 11 11 11 12 12 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0
Services to finance & investment 223 247 272 297 322 346 14 15 16 17 18 18 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Real estate 675 752 833 914 994 1073 7 7 7 7 7 7 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5
Owner-occupied dwellings 1026 1128 1234 1336 1434 1524 3 3 3 4 4 4 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4
Business services 1515 1745 2004 2295 2629 3014 2 2 2 12.7
2 2 2 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.1
605 10 2.6
Central government 405 446 488 529 568 9 9 9 9 9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6
147 26 0.6
Local government 98 108 118 128 138 27 28 27 26 26 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
525 11 2.2
Education 322 360 400 441 483 10 10 10 10 11 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
761 8 3.2
Health & community services 503 555 609 662 713 8 8 8 8 8 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
399 15 1.7
Cultural & recreational services 205 234 269 307 350 18 18 17 16 15 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
321 20 1.4
Personal & other community services 186 209 234 261 290 19 20 20 20 20 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
68
FINAL
September 2008
15 APPENDIX 4.5: PROJECTED VALUE ADDED PER SECTOR
SECTOR Value Added Projections [$2004million] % Change Btwn Periods Ranking % Contribution AAGR
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006- 2011- 2016- 2021- 2026- 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-
11 16 21 26 31 2031
Horticulture & fruit growing 6 6 6 6 7 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.0 35 35 35 37 37 37 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6
Livestock & cropping farming 1 1 1 2 2 2 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 42 43 43 43 43 43 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
Dairy cattle farming 3 3 3 4 4 4 0.0 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 39 40 40 40 40 40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
Other farming 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46 46 46 46 46 46 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Services to agri, hunting & trapping 3 4 4 4 5 5 33.3 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 40 39 39 39 39 39 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
Forestry & logging 5 6 6 7 7 8 20.0 0.0 16.7 0.0 14.3 36 36 36 35 35 35 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9
Fishing 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43 44 44 44 44 44 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mining & quarrying 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44 45 45 45 45 45 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil & gas exploration & extraction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47 47 47 47 47 47 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Meat & meat prod manuf 2 3 3 3 3 4 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 41 41 41 41 41 41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
Dairy prod manuf 8 10 12 14 17 19 25.0 20.0 16.7 21.4 11.8 33 33 33 33 33 33 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.5
Other food manuf 41 47 54 61 69 78 14.6 14.9 13.0 13.1 13.0 27 26 25 25 25 24 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.6
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf 5 5 6 7 7 8 0.0 20.0 16.7 0.0 14.3 37 37 37 36 36 36 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9
Textile & apparel manuf 43 46 48 51 53 56 7.0 4.3 6.3 3.9 5.7 26 27 27 27 27 27 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1
Wood prod manuf 17 19 21 23 25 27 11.8 10.5 9.5 8.7 8.0 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9
Paper & paper prod manuf 27 31 34 37 41 45 14.8 9.7 8.8 10.8 9.8 30 30 30 30 30 30 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.1
Printing, publishing & recorded media 134 150 166 184 202 221 11.9 10.7 10.8 9.8 9.4 14 14 15 15 15 15 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf 8 9 10 11 11 12 12.5 11.1 10.0 0.0 9.1 34 34 34 34 34 34 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf 182 193 207 220 234 248 6.0 7.3 6.3 6.4 6.0 13 13 13 13 14 14 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.2
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf 29 34 39 44 49 55 17.2 14.7 12.8 11.4 12.2 29 29 29 29 29 28 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.6
Basic metal manuf 26 30 32 34 37 40 15.4 6.7 6.3 8.8 8.1 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf 96 107 120 134 150 167 11.5 12.1 11.7 11.9 11.3 18 19 19 19 19 19 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.2
Trans equipment manuf 37 42 44 47 49 52 13.5 4.8 6.8 4.3 6.1 28 28 28 28 28 29 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.4
Machinery & equipment manuf 113 139 174 218 275 348 23.0 25.2 25.3 26.1 26.5 16 15 14 14 13 11 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.8 4.6
Furniture & other manuf 59 67 74 81 87 94 13.6 10.4 9.5 7.4 8.0 23 22 22 22 22 22 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.9
Electricity generation & supply 4 4 4 5 5 5 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 38 38 38 38 38 38 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Gas supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48 48 48 48 48 48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Water supply 1 2 2 2 2 2 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45 42 42 42 42 42 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
Construction 340 402 463 525 586 647 18.2 15.2 13.4 11.6 10.4 8 8 8 7 7 7 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 2.6
Wholesale trade 894 996 1102 1208 1316 1423 11.4 10.6 9.6 8.9 8.1 1 2 2 2 2 2 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 1.9
Retail trade 559 621 687 754 821 887 11.1 10.6 9.8 8.9 8.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 1.9
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 93 108 126 146 167 192 16.1 16.7 15.9 14.4 15.0 20 18 18 18 18 18 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.9
Road trans 49 54 60 65 71 77 10.2 11.1 8.3 9.2 8.5 24 24 24 24 24 25 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8
Water & rail trans 47 49 51 53 55 57 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 25 25 26 26 26 26 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8
Air trans, services to trans & storage 76 86 96 107 119 132 13.2 11.6 11.5 11.2 10.9 21 21 21 21 21 21 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.2
69
FINAL
September 2008
Communication services 557 611 667 724 780 836 9.7 9.2 8.5 7.7 7.2 5 5 5 6 6 6 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 1.6
Finance 193 214 237 261 285 309 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.2 8.4 12 12 12 12 12 12 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 1.9
Insurance 204 224 246 267 288 307 9.8 9.8 8.5 7.9 6.6 11 11 11 11 11 13 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.6
Services to finance & investment 96 106 116 127 138 148 10.4 9.4 9.5 8.7 7.2 19 20 20 20 20 20 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7
Real estate 538 600 665 729 793 856 11.5 10.8 9.6 8.8 7.9 6 6 6 5 5 5 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 1.9
Owner-occupied dwellings 843 926 1014 1098 1178 1252 9.8 9.5 8.3 7.3 6.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.2 1.6
Business services 883 1016 1167 1337 1531 1756 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.5 14.7 2 1 1 1 1 1 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.3 2.8
Central government 272 300 328 355 382 406 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6 6.3 9 9 9 10 10 10 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 1.6
Local government 60 66 73 79 85 90 10.0 10.6 8.2 7.6 5.9 22 23 23 23 23 23 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6
Education 262 293 326 359 393 427 11.8 11.3 10.1 9.5 8.7 10 10 10 9 9 9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.0
Health & community services 387 427 468 509 549 586 10.3 9.6 8.8 7.9 6.7 7 7 7 8 8 8 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 1.7
Cultural & recreational services 109 125 144 164 187 213 14.7 15.2 13.9 14.0 13.9 17 17 17 16 16 16 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.7
Personal & other community services 115 129 145 162 179 198 12.2 12.4 11.7 10.5 10.6 15 16 16 17 17 17 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.2
Industry Total 7429 8313 9253 10230 11246 12308 11.9% 11.3% 10.6% 9.9% 9.4% 100% 2.0%
Total (Incl. Final Demands) 7999 8946 9951 10993 12072 13197 11.8% 11.2% 10.5% 9.8% 9.3%
70
FINAL
September 2008
16 APPENDIX 4.6: PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – FULL TIME EQUIVALENTS (FTES)
Sector EMPLOYMENT / FTES % Change Btwn Periods Ranking % Share AAGR

2006-
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Horticulture & fruit growing 148 146 150 154 157 160 -1.4 2.7 2.7 1.9 1.9 32 32 32 32 32 33 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.31%
Livestock & cropping farming 22 23 24 26 27 28 4.5 4.3 8.3 3.8 3.7 40 40 40 40 40 40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.97%
Dairy cattle farming 42 45 47 49 51 53 7.1 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9 38 38 38 38 38 38 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.93%
Other farming 16 16 15 15 14 14 0.0 -6.3 0.0 -6.7 0.0 41 41 42 42 42 42 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.53%
Services to agri, hunting &
70 75 80 84 89 93 7.1 6.7 5.0 6.0 4.5 36 36 36 36 36 36 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.14%
trapping
Forestry & logging 72 81 85 91 96 100 12.5 4.9 7.1 5.5 4.2 35 35 35 35 35 35 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.32%
Fishing 15 16 16 16 15 15 6.7 0.0 0.0 -6.3 0.0 42 42 41 41 41 41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Mining & quarrying 5 5 5 6 6 6 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 44 44 44 44 44 44 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.73%
Oil & gas exploration & extraction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48 48 46 46 46 46 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Meat & meat prod manuf 46 49 52 55 57 59 6.5 6.1 5.8 3.6 3.5 37 37 37 37 37 37 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.00%
Dairy prod manuf 83 106 121 137 156 177 27.7 14.2 13.2 13.9 13.5 34 34 33 33 33 32 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.08%
Other food manuf 579 648 714 785 861 943 11.9 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.5 25 25 25 25 25 24 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.97%
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf 23 26 29 31 33 35 13.0 11.5 6.9 6.5 6.1 39 39 39 39 39 39 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.69%
Textile & apparel manuf 885 924 943 959 972 983 4.4 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 21 21 22 22 22 23 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.42%
Wood prod manuf 296 322 342 367 387 402 8.8 6.2 7.3 5.4 3.9 28 27 27 27 27 28 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.23%
Paper & paper prod manuf 181 197 211 225 239 253 8.8 7.1 6.6 6.2 5.9 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.35%
Printing, publishing & recorded
1880 2035 2188 2338 2488 2635 8.2 7.5 6.9 6.4 5.9 12 12 13 14 14 14 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.36%
media
Petroleum & industrial chem
110 114 119 125 130 134 3.6 4.4 5.0 4.0 3.1 33 33 34 34 34 34 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.79%
manuf
Rubber, plastic & other chem
1387 1426 1476 1523 1567 1608 2.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 15 15 16 16 16 16 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.59%
manuf
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf 259 292 323 354 384 413 12.7 10.6 9.6 8.5 7.6 29 29 28 28 28 27 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.88%
Basic metal manuf 233 259 269 280 291 304 11.2 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.5 30 30 30 30 30 30 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.07%
Sheet & fabricated metal prod
1270 1374 1496 1621 1749 1884 8.2 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.7 16 16 15 15 15 15 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.59%
manuf
Trans equipment manuf 696 765 784 800 814 826 9.9 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 24 24 24 24 24 25 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.69%
Machinery & equipment manuf 1515 1809 2194 2666 3249 3978 19.4 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.4 14 14 12 11 11 10 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.94%
Furniture & other manuf 1136 1246 1329 1404 1473 1533 9.7 6.7 5.6 4.9 4.1 17 17 17 17 17 17 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.21%
Electricity generation & supply 6 6 7 7 7 7 0.0 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 43 43 43 43 43 43 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.62%
Gas supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47 47 47 47 47 47 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
71
FINAL
September 2008
Water supply 4 4 4 5 5 5 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 45 45 45 45 45 45 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.90%
Construction 6703 7656 8547 9373 10139 10845 14.2 11.6 9.7 8.2 7.0 5 4 4 4 4 4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 1.94%
Wholesale trade 10435 11250 12049 12792 13488 14124 7.8 7.1 6.2 5.4 4.7 3 3 3 3 3 3 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.1 1.22%
Retail trade 12394 13338 14285 15167 15991 16738 7.6 7.1 6.2 5.4 4.7 2 2 2 2 2 2 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 1.21%
Accommodation, restaurants &
2934 3309 3722 4162 4636 5145 12.8 12.5 11.8 11.4 11.0 9 9 9 9 9 8 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 2.27%
bars
Road trans 1096 1174 1251 1324 1395 1463 7.1 6.6 5.8 5.4 4.9 18 18 18 18 18 18 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.16%
Water & rail trans 316 318 320 322 324 327 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 27 28 29 29 29 29 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.14%
Air trans, services to trans &
754 819 888 958 1032 1108 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.7 7.4 23 23 23 23 23 22 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.55%
storage
Communication services 3650 3874 4098 4304 4493 4660 6.1 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.7 8 8 8 8 8 9 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 0.98%
Finance 828 892 956 1016 1074 1129 7.7 7.2 6.3 5.7 5.1 22 22 21 21 21 21 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.25%
Insurance 1089 1161 1232 1294 1349 1394 6.6 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.3 19 19 19 19 19 19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.99%
Services to finance & investment 1043 1118 1191 1258 1321 1377 7.2 6.5 5.6 5.0 4.2 20 20 20 20 20 20 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.12%
Real estate 2011 2170 2327 2471 2603 2720 7.9 7.2 6.2 5.3 4.5 11 11 11 12 12 13 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.22%
Business services 12656 14106 15689 17396 19288 21409 11.5 11.2 10.9 10.9 11.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.8 2.12%
Central government 4311 4591 4867 5106 5311 5471 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.0 3.0 7 7 7 7 7 7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 0.96%
Local government 467 498 528 555 577 595 6.6 6.0 5.1 4.0 3.1 26 26 26 26 26 26 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.97%
Education 5192 5612 6044 6453 6840 7195 8.1 7.7 6.8 6.0 5.2 6 6 6 6 6 6 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 1.31%
Health & community services 6725 7178 7629 8027 8375 8657 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.3 3.4 4 5 5 5 5 5 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 1.02%
Cultural & recreational services 1721 1909 2117 2340 2584 2854 10.9 10.9 10.5 10.4 10.4 13 13 14 13 13 12 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.04%
Personal & other community
2245 2442 2650 2858 3072 3291 8.8 8.5 7.8 7.5 7.1 10 10 10 10 10 11 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.54%
services
Industry Total 87549 95424 103413 111299 119209 127150 9.0 8.4 7.6 7.1 6.7 100 2.0%
72
FINAL
September 2008
17 APPENDIX 4.7: PROJECTED SIMPLE LOCATION QUOTIENTS
PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS

SECTOR 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Insurance 2.82 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.84 2.84
Communication services 2.46 2.44 2.43 2.41 2.4 2.39
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.81 1.78 1.76
Wholesale trade 1.86 1.85 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.81
Printing, publishing & recorded media 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.64
Services to finance & investment 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43
Furniture & other manufacturing 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.45
Real estate 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36
Central government 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.45
Business services 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.33
Retail trade 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26
Construction 1.09 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.05
Personal & other community services 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05
Trans equipment manufacturing 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.93
Textile & apparel manufacturing 0.97 0.98 1 1.01 1.02 1.04
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97
Health & community services 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99
Education 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93
Cultural & recreational services 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.8 0.79 0.78
Water & rail trans 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.78
Basic metal manufacturing 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.81
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.8
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 0.71 0.7 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.64
Local government 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.7 0.72
Road trans 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62
Paper & paper prod manufacturing 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7
Finance 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.61
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53
Air trans, services to trans & storage 0.51 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51
Other food manufacturing 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.4 0.39
Wood prod manufacturing 0.3 0.3 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32
Dairy prod manufacturing 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
Forestry & logging 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
Horticulture & fruit growing 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Water supply 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Fishing 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
Other farming 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
Mining & quarrying 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Meat & meat prod manufacturing 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Electricity generation & supply 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Dairy cattle farming 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
Livestock & cropping farming 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Oil & gas exploration & extraction 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas supply 0 0 0 0 0 0
73
FINAL
September 2008
The figures reflect the ranked sectors – ranked in terms of 2006 FTEs. The variables presented in the figures, the
following applies:
• X-axis movement in the SLQ between 2006-2011

• Y-Axis SLQ2006
• Bubble size FTE2006.
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006

3.00
Comm Srvs
2.50
Business svcs Retail trade
2.00
W-Sale Trade
1.50
Central government
Construction
1.00 Health &
Accom, resta. & bars comm svcs
0.50
Education
Personal & other
comm svcs
0.00
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
3.50
3.00
Insurance
2.50
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf

2.00
Printing, publ. & rec. media

Svcs to finance & investment
1.50
Furniture & other manuf Real estate
1.00
0.50 Road trans
0.00
-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
74
FINAL
September 2008

1.20
Trans equipment manuf Textile & apparel manuf

1.00
Water & rail trans
Non-metallic mineral
0.80 prod manuf
Basic metal manuf
Local government
0.60 Finance
Air trans, svcs to
trans & storage
Other food manuf
0.40
Wood prod manuf

0.20
0.00
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
0.70
Paper & paper prod manuf
0.60 Dairy prod manuf
Petroleum & industrial
0.50 Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping chem manuf
0.40
0.30 Livestock & cropping farming
0.20
Forestry &
logging
0.10
Beverage, malt &
tobacco manuf
0.00
-0.10
-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
75
FINAL
September 2008
0.09
Water supply
0.08
0.07
0.06 Fishing
0.05
0.04 Other farming
0.03 Mining & quarrying
0.02
0.01
0.00
-20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
76
FINAL
September 2008
18 APPENDIX 4.8: PROJECTED SLQ QUADRANTS

SUMMARY OF SECTORAL MOVEMENTS & SHIFT SHARE (QUADRANTS)
PERIOD 2006-2011 2026-2031 2006-31 2006-31
SLQ (PERIOD) 2006 2026 2006 2031
Business svcs 1 1 1 1
Central government 1 1 1 1
Construction 1 1 1 1
Insurance 1 4 4 1
Personal & other community svcs 1 4 4 1
Retail trade 1 1 1 1
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage 2 3 3 3
Education 2 2 2 2
Forestry & logging 2 3 3 2
Health & community svcs 2 2 2 2
Local government 2 2 2 2
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf 2 2 2 2
Paper & paper prod manuf 2 2 2 2
Textile & apparel manuf 2 1 2 1
Accommodation, restaurants & bars 3 3 3 3
Basic metal manuf 3 2 2 2
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf 3 3 3 3
Cultural & recreational svcs 3 3 3 3
Dairy cattle farming 3 3 3 3
Dairy prod manuf 3 3 3 3
Electricity generation & supply 3 3 3 3
Finance 3 2 2 2
Fishing 3 3 3 3
Gas supply 3 3 3 3
Horticulture & fruit growing 3 3 3 3
Livestock & cropping farming 3 3 3 3
Machinery & equipment manuf 3 3 3 2
Meat & meat prod manuf 3 3 3 3
Mining & quarrying 3 3 3 3
Oil & gas exploration & extraction 3 3 3 3
Other farming 3 3 3 3
Other food manuf 3 3 3 3
Owner-occupied dwellings 3 3 3 3
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf 3 3 3 3
Road trans 3 3 3 3
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping 3 3 3 3
Trans equipment manuf 3 3 3 3
Water & rail trans 3 2 2 2
Water supply 3 3 3 3
Wood prod manuf 3 2 2 2
Communication svcs 4 4 4 4
Furniture & other manuf 4 4 4 4
Printing, publishing & recorded media 4 1 1 1
Real estate 4 4 4 1
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf 4 4 4 4
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf 4 4 4 4
Svcs to finance & investment 4 4 4 4
Wholesale trade 4 4 4 4
77
FINAL
September 2008
78

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Economic Futures Report For

North Shore City

Promoting North Shore

1 2031 Future Scenario & Targeted Business Sectors...................................................... 3

1.1 Future Economic Make-up......................................................................................... 4

1.2 Targeted Sectors - Future Performance..................................................................... 5

1.2.1 Selected ratios................................................................................................... 7

2.2 Economic Output.......................................................................................................10

2.3 Targeted Business Sectors........................................................................................10

PART TWO - FULL REPORT................................................................................................... 13

1 2031 Future Scenario &

CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20), 2006 – 2031

In terms of total economic activity the

“ The most significant

The value added per FTE is projected

VALUE ADDED/FTE TRENDS –

“ North Shore City is

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

North Shore as % of Auckland Region

2001 2006 2007

“ The key growth industries

North Shore City

Promoting North Shore

PART 1: BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 1

13 APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES ...................................................................................... 66

1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION

1.1 OBJECTIVES & SCOPE

1.2 APPROACH FOLLOWED

1.3 INFORMATION SOURCES

• The North Shore Economic Futures Model

1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE

• Part 3: ‘Future Scenario’ – Sectoral Overview consists of two sections:

2 THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE

• Information and Communications Technology sector

• Land utilisation by the main economic sections

2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES

translates into a lower population growth rate.

age group. $13,568 for persons 85 years and over

(Ministry of Health, 2002).

• Education levels and occupation.

TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

2.2 ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES

• Regional share2007 16.9% (2001 = 16.3%).

TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS

2.3 ECONOMIC OUTPUT

TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION

• Reflect the longer term trends or outlooks.

FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7

2.4 PRIORITY SECTORS

• Transform the entire economy, and

These sectors comprise:

TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS

TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE

TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ %

FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY

FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY

2.5 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

According to the Westpac Economic Overview

FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION

FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE)

Property & Business Services Education Wholesale Trade TOTAL

2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS

PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW

1.1 Future Economic Make-up......................................................................................... 4

1.2 Targeted Sectors - Future Performance..................................................................... 5

2.3 Targeted Business Sectors........................................................................................10

1 2031 Future Scenario &