2011 4Q Detached Quarterly Report

Presentable Market Data
Chuck Carr
Office: 770-698-8797 Cell: 678-591-6030 Email: ChartMasterChuck@aol.com www.ChartMasterServices.com
Data
About This Report
The source of all data contained herein is NORMLS listings data for real estate transactions occurring in 6 selected northern Ohio counties and does not necessarily represent all market activity either for those areas or for the Northern Ohio area. Analysis is performed by ChartMaster Services, LLC, an independent data analysis firm which cannot and does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the data or its publications. NORMLS neither guarantees nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Accordingly, ChartMaster Services, LLC hereby disclaims any express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability and/or fitness for a particular purpose, and hereby notifies all readers and users that any reliance upon the data, information, analysis or opinions contained in any of our publications shall be at the readers own risk.
Terms of Use
These reports provide a competitive advantage for agents in participating Keller Williams offices and should be used in a manner to protect that advantage. Reports are provided by ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively to Keller Williams and should be treated as proprietary to those offices contracting for the service, not for distribution in their entirety or posted in their entirety to web sites. Reports, either whole or in part, may be used in consultations with clients and prospects during the normal conduct of business by agents in offices contracting for the service. Agents in contracting offices are encouraged to select charts for use in lead-generation activities as a way to encourage prospective clients to contact the agent for additional information. Acceptance and use of this report shall constitute acceptance of these terms.
Current Market Overview

Understanding three views of the current market allows Buyers to maximize their ability to evaluate properties, receiving the highest value in their home search and Sellers to position their property to maximize money in their pocket while minimizing time on market:
Macro View: National Market

National Media Coverage Metro View: Greater Cleveland Area Market Quarterly Metro Market Report 6-County NORMLS data Micro View: Your Community Comparative Market Analysis
3
Single Family Detached Residences

NORMLS Cleveland Metro Area (Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Summit Counties)
Full year 2011 sales were slightly higher (+.9%) than those of 2010 2011 Sales were -12.5% lower than in 2009
4Q 2011 Quarterly Metro Market Profile Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

Monthly sales remained stronger during the last half of 2011 compared to 2010, with stronger sales in each month after June, 2011 Federal home buyer incentive programs likely contributed to increased sales in the last quarter of 2009 and through the first 2 quarters of 2010

Tracking sales monthly since January, 2008 illustrates the general downtrend in sales we have experienced, generally characterized by lower high and low sales each year, during seasonal fluctuations The effects of government purchase incentives on monthly sales distorted seasonal trends in Oct.-Nov., 2009 and magnified them again in Apr.-June, 2010 after which a sharp falloff occurred through Feb., 2011

4Q 2011 sales increased by +15.1% compared to 4Q 2010 following decreases a +23.4% increase in 3Q 2011 These 2 quarterly sales gains are measured against the same periods in 2010 which felt the effects of expiration of the homebuyer incentives in effect through 2Q 2010

NORMLS Cleveland Metro Area (Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Summit Counties) 4Q ONLY
The 4Q 2011 sales increase occurred in price ranges below $300K, contributing to a lower overall median sales price

Higher sales in the Resale segment, in price ranges below $300K brought overall sales up by +15%
NEW Growth in sales of midpriced ($100K-$300K) New home contributed to a large percentage RESALE increase in overall new construction sales of +52% TOTAL
4Q 2011 Sales
$100K<$100K $199K
2 (-71%) 2,225 (+27%) 2,227 (+26%)
$200$299K
$300499K
$500$749K
3 (-25%) 51 (-15%) 54 (-16%)
$750$999K $1.0M+
N/A 0 (-100%) 8 (-27%) 8 (-33%)
Total
111 (+52%) 4,520 (+14%) 4,631 (+15%)
37 44 23 (+85%) (+110%) (+15%) 1,492 (+10%) 1,529 (+11%) 500 (+2%) 544 (+6%) 240 (-9%) 263 (-8%)
4 (-76%) 6 (-65%)
Sales of properties priced above $300K were mostly lower than in the same period of 2010
Comparison to 4Q 2010: Better Same Worse
NORMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. 2012 Chartmaster Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of chartmasterchuck@aol.com.

4Q 2011 Foreclosure sales as a percent of total sales were +2.4 percentage points higher than in 4Q 2010
10

The overall percentage of foreclosures was higher in 3Q 2011 than in the same period in 2010 resulting from increases in price ranges below $200K
11

Short Sale transactions declined as a percentage of total transactions during the last 2 quarters compared to both the same periods in 2010 and to the recent high point in 1Q 2011
12

4Q 2011 Short Sale transactions occurred only in the <$750K price ranges and were mostly lower than during 4Q 2010
13

When Short Sales are added to Foreclosure Sales they make up Distressed Sales, shown here as a percent of total quarterly sales 4Q 2011 distressed sale transactions were +1.6 percentage points higher than in 4Q 2010 and were -9.4 percentage points lower than the high in 1Q 2011
14

Shown here by price range demonstrates the degree to which 4Q 2011 distressed sales are concentrated in the <$100K price range More than 1in 3 all sales in the <$100K price range were distressed sales during 4Q 2011, while 1 in 5 sales overall were distressed
15

Buyers chose to purchase properties in Cash sales in more than 1 of every 3 transactions during 2011, up by +6.8 percentage points from 2010 A corresponding drop of -4.8 percentage points in FHA purchases shows some shifting away from financing, possibly due to investor purchases of lower price properties and the difficulty of obtaining financing
16

Distressed properties nearly 4 times more likely to be financed by cash purchase as by conventional loans during 2011
17

Shown here by price range demonstrates the degree to which 4Q 2011 cash sales were concentrated in the <$100K price range Nearly 60% of all sales for prices <$100K were cash purchases, with nondistressed sales representing a larger portion than distressed sales
18

As sales increased in 4Q 2011, the median sales price fell by -8.7%
This change reflects the shift of purchases toward lower priced properties during 4Q 2011 The full-year 2011 median sales price was also -7.8% compared to 2010
19

The median sales price is derived by taking the point at which half of the transactions were at prices above and half were at prices below that price The overall 4Q 2011 median sales price was lower than that of 4Q 2010 due to a higher portion of sales of properties priced below $100K
20

Median sales prices declined fairly steadily through many of these quarterly periods Exceptions occurred during the period of government purchase incentives from 3Q 2009 through most of 2Q 2010 Since then there have been smaller fluctuations in quarterly comparisons with declines in 3 out of 4 quarters in 2011
21

Monthly median sales prices reached a low point during this period in January, 2009 Normal seasonal patterns were affected during the homebuyer incentive periods in late 2009 through mid-2010 With those external influences out of the way now, we will be better able to follow real market trends If this trend continues, Buyers seeking to buy at the bottom of the market may have already missed that point
22

Median sales price changes for the relatively few New Construction properties declined by -3.8% in 4Q 2011
Resale properties median sales price was also lower by -9.8%
23

Appreciation of how buyers can be attracted to distressed property purchases becomes easier when the median sales price for distressed properties was -67% lower than for nondistressed properties in 3Q 2011
This doesnt imply that the properties are similar, but rather that purchasers are focused on low-priced properties in this phase of the market and distressed properties tend to fall into those price ranges
24

NORMLS Cleveland Metro Area (Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Summit Counties) PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS DATA INCLUDED
The median of Sales Price as a percentage of the Original Listing Price fell again in 4Q 2011 by -1.3 percentage points compared to 4Q 2010
Lower S/L price ratios result from buyer price resistance, forcing sellers to negotiate to a lower percentage of their asking price in order to reach a sale, which is a likely indication that Sellers are not pricing correctly for this market
25

NORMLS Cleveland Metro Area (Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Summit Counties) PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS DATA INCLUDED 4Q ONLY
4Q 2011 sales by price range show that most of the -1.3 point decline in the overall median S/L ratio came from the <$100K price range which fell -4.2 percentage points
Price ranges between $100K and $499K were able to maintain or increase their S/L ratio compared to last year
26

Median S/L ratios shown monthly since January, 2008 reveals that the bottom during this period was reached during 1Q 2009 A downward trend since May, 2010 is likely due to a combination of overall market slowing after the expiration of buyer incentives, normal seasonal effects and the continued high inventory of distressed properties
27

In the period since June, 2008, it appears that sellers of nondistressed properties have been able to adjust to the market enough to see a decline of about -5 percentage points in median S/L ratios, while sellers of distressed properties have declined by nearly -13 percentage points from the high in Feb., 2010
28

The 4Q 2011 median of Days-On-Market (DOM) increased by +6.8%, compared to the same period of the previous year
29

Four of these seven price segments had a median DOM higher in 4Q 2011 than in 4Q 2010, while those above $750K were lower Increases in the highprice, low-volume ranges will not weight the overall median significantly
30

4Q 2011 Median Days on Market

The median of DOM segmented by Sales Price and New vs. Resale, shows an overall increase of 8% in time-on-market for Resale properties while New homes declined by -31% The overall increase came mostly from Resale properties, particularly those priced below $300K
$100K$<100K $199K $200$299K $300499K $500$749K $750$999K $1.0M+
N/A N/A
Total
138 Days -31%
NEW
49 Days 127 Days 141 Days 152 Days 508 Days -82% -29% -42% +39% +5%
RESALE
112 Days 132 Days 140 Days 148 Days 339 Days 301 Days 174 Days 125 Days +17% +9% +5% -12% +74% -27% -63% +8%
112 Days 131 Days 140 Days 149 Days 348 Days 301 Days 174 Days 125 Days +15% +8% +4% -6% +76% -27% -57% +7%
TOTAL
Comparison to 4Q 2010: Better Same Worse
31

The percentage of sales in which the Seller was required to reduce the listing price in order to attract a Buyer, remained above 64% during 2011, reaching a high of more than 67% of transactions during 2 of the 4 Continued pricing pressure from distressed properties and overall economic concerns resulted in buyer caution causing this percentage to increase after government incentives expired in 2010 and remain higher since then
32

Even though the overall percentage of transactions with a price reduction was higher than last year, only 3 of these price ranges had a higher median
33

When a price reduction is required, the Seller usually negotiates to a lesser portion of the Original Listing Price than a Seller not required to take a price reduction
The 4Q 2011 percentage point difference of -19.2 would amount to a net reduction of -$24,000 from the original list price at the median sales price, compared to a Seller without a price reduction
34

When a price reduction was required, substantially lower S/L ratios occurred in all price ranges in 4Q 2011, but there were large differences in degree among the various price ranges For example, the ratio for a price-reduced property dropped a whopping -34.5 percentage points, below that of a non-price reduced property, in the <$100K range, where the difference was -11.2 percentage points in the $300K-$499K range
35

Even after taking a price reduction, Sellers realized a lesser portion of their new list price than those Sellers who were not required to reduce their price Had these price-reduced properties been correctly priced originally, they could likely have sold in much less time at a higher price
36

Even after taking a price reduction, Sellers usually realized an equal, or lesser, portion of their new, reduced list price than those Sellers not required to reduce their price Pricing correctly with the current market results in a better net selling price, in less time on market
37

NORMLS Cleveland Metro Area (Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Summit Counties) PREVIOUS LISTING PERIODS DATA INCLUDED FULL YEAR
Correctly pricing with the current market can result in multiple offers and sales at prices above the Original Listing Price In 2011, nearly 1 out of every 10 (10.2%) sales transactions resulted in selling prices that were equal to or higher than the original listing price
38

When a price reduction is required, more marketing time is needed to attract a buyer A Seller required to take a price reduction in 4Q 2011 needed a median of 198 days to sell, compared to only 35 days for a Seller who priced correctly with the market a difference of +5.2 months, or +5.7 times, longer to sell The results are higher carrying costs, greater inconvenience due to keeping the house in showing condition and delays in finding and moving to a new home
39

Higher-priced properties normally take longer to sell, but when a price reduction was necessary in 4Q 2011, the differences were substantially greater in all price ranges
Sellers across these price ranges needed 5.7 times longer to sell when a price reduction was required Conversely, Sellers pricing their property correctly for the current market, were able to sell in a very reasonable time period a median of 35 days across all price ranges
40

Failed listings (Expired+ Withdrawn) are shown here as a percentage of total finalized listings (Expired + Withdrawn + Closed) The high failure rate of listings offers evidence of the strong Buyer price resistance in this market, since listings usually fail due to overpricing The 4Q 2011 average failure rate was lower than that of 2010 at 57.0% of finalized listings during the quarter The percentage of failed listings typically drops during the first half of each year as the pace of the spring market improves
41

Whats the REAL STORY?

Many times listed properties will have expired or been withdrawn one or more times prior to the listing period in which they sold. Including the original listing prices and cumulative days on market from those previous listing periods, results in a more realistic set of measurements.
Total Closed Listings

(100%)
84.0% S/L* 125 DOM*
* Medians: Half are

above and half are below
Price Reduced
(67.1% of Total)
No Price Reduction
(32.9% of Total)
76.5% S/L* 192 DOM*
95.7% S/L* 35 DOM*
Previously Listed
(29.5% of Total)
Not Previously Listed

(37.6% of Total)
Previously Listed
(.8% of Total)
Not Previously Listed

(32.1%Of Total)
67.7% S/L* 339 DOM*

Chased the Market
81.5% S/L*
90.7% S/L*
95.7% S/L*
127 DOM*
Chased the Market
212 DOM*
Chased the Market
34 DOM*
Priced Right Originally
42

We have seen that out of every 100 finalized listings in 4Q 2011, 57 failed to sell and 43 sold Of the 43 closed listings, 29 (67%) required a price reduction, including original listing prices from previous listing periods, in order to attract a Buyer Therefore, if 57 failed to sell due to overpricing and another 29 required a price reduction in order to sell, 86 out of every 100 listings were initially overpriced in 4Q 2011, resulting in either no sale, or a sale at a muchreduced price after a muchlonger listing period
43

Cleveland Area Buyers Market

Above
57%
Only 14% of the 4Q 2011 Cleveland housing inventory was initially priced in the market
Price vs. Competition

29%
Out of The Market

Homes that Dont Sell
Below
In the Market
Houses that Sell in a median of 35 days
Chased The 14% Market
57%
Condition vs. Competition
Great
Poor
44

The number of months of supply vary widely among the market segments shown by price range and New vs. Resale properties Overall the supply was at 8.8 months, meaning that at the current monthly sales rate, it would take 8.8 months to sell the September listing inventory, if no new listings came on the market
December, 2011 Months Supply of Listings

(Using 3-mos moving average of sales)
$100K- $200K- $300K- $500K- $750K<$100K $199K $299K 499K $749K $999K $1.0M+
NEW 11.0 Months 7.5 Months 7.5 Months 17.2 Months 8.5 Months 8.7 Months 17.0 Months 9.4 Months 10.0 Months 20.8 Months 10.9 Months 11.8 Months 41.0 Months 16.3 Months 17.5 Months 16.5 Months 39.3 Months 35.8 Months N/A
Total
18.6 Months 8.5 Months 8.8 Months
RESALE
53.4 Months 56.1 Months
The generally accepted dividing point between a Buyers and Sellers market is at 6-7 months of inventory putting all segments into a Buyers Market condition
TOTAL
Compared to Sellers Market condition (6.0 Mos.)
Better
Same
Worse
45

Viewing overall supply against the industry benchmark for a balanced market shows that current levels in all price ranges remain in a Buyers Market condition, above the 6-7 month level Supply was very close to the Balanced Market condition for properties priced below $100K
46

Although the overall supply of properties in December, 2011 was at 8.8 months, when Distressed properties are separated out, the picture changes for non-distressed properties, rising to a 9.3month level Distressed property supply is also in a Buyers market condition in all segments except the <$100K and $750K+ price ranges with overall supply at 6.6 months while non-distressed is at 9.3 months Two other price ranges for distressed properties are in the Buyers Market condition, also 4Q 2011 Quarterly Metro Market Profile Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty
47

Summary
Sales: Full Year 2011 +.9% higher than 2010, -12.5% compared to 2009
Monthly sales increased in each of the last 6 months this year compared to the same period last year, resulting in a +15% quarterly increase compared to 4Q 2010 The Foreclosure percentage was slightly higher in 4Q 2011compared to 4Q 2010, at 15.4% of quarterly sales, while overall distressed sales were up by 1.6 percentage points at 20.3% of 4Q 2011 sales Distressed sales were 33.7% of 4Q 2011 sales in the <$100K price range Cash purchases represented 34.7% of all sales in 2011, up from 27.9% last year`
Sales Prices: Median declined by -8.7% in 4Q 2011 compared to 4Q 2010 Percent S/L price: Median 84.0%, -1.3 percentage points below 4Q 2010 Days on Market: 125 Days, +6.8% higher in 4Q 2011 than in Q 2010 Price Reductions: High at 67% of 4Q 2011 transactions, +1 percentage point higher than in 4Q 2010 and up by 5 percentage points for the full year
A large drop in % S/L ratio occurred when a price reduction was taken (-19.2 percentage points in 4Q 2011) <$100K price range impact of price reductions on S/L ratio was greater (-34.5 percentage points) than for other price ranges DOM effect 5.2 months (5.7 times) longer needed to sell after a price reduction in 4Q 2011
Failed Listings: 57.0% of listings in 4Q 2011 Overpriced Listings: 86% of listings initially overpriced in 4Q 2011 Supply: December, 2011 at 8.8 months of supply
New Construction supply at 18.6 months
48

The Story of the Detached Residence Market 4Q 2011 Significant Market Observations

Full Year sales were slightly higher than last year (+.9%) more than +15% higher in the last 3 months Distressed properties represent a significant percentage of total sales 20% representing a continued abnormal depressant on sales prices Median sales prices trended down compared to last year Resulting from of continued availability of lowerpriced Distressed properties Median S/L ratio was also lower 84.0%, down by -1.3 percentage points from the same period last year More difficult negotiating environment for Sellers due to an abundance of lower-priced distressed properties Median time on market longer than last year 125 days, up 6.8% - High overall inventory increases competition for buyers among Active listings Incidence of price reductions high 67% of 4Q transactions Results of high inventory of Active listings and lower-priced Distressed Properties Initial listing prices too high 86% initially overpriced Sellers not fully compensating for current competitive environment consequences Overall months of Active listings supply still very much in a Buyers Market condition 8.8 months Supply of non-distressed properties were also above the 7 month Buyers Market threshold
49

The Story of the Detached Residence Market 4Q 2011 Importance to Sellers
Current Buyer price resistance remains very high due somewhat to availability of lower-priced distressed inventory alternatives, making high-value initial listing prices essential Distressed properties are dictating prices for non-distressed properties
Importance to Buyers
Unusual opportunity for high-value purchases - declining prices, distressed property availability and anxious sellers Supply of distressed properties nearing or below balanced market conditions in most price ranges potentially increasing buyer competition for those properties Quick action and serious offers are required when high-value properties are found, since low median DOM and high S/L ratios usually result
50

The Story of the Detached Residence Market 4Q 2011 Success Strategies for Sellers
Choose to factor in the impact of distressed properties competing for buyers in sellers price range and location, when setting initial listing price Maximize selling price and minimize market time by choosing an initial listing price that represents high value compared to competing listings Constantly re-evaluate market trends to re-assess pricing choice avoid chasing the market
Consequences of Wrong Seller Choices

Sell after a much longer time on market - Median DOM 6.4 times longer Sale at a much lower portion of original listing price median of -26.9 percentage points lower if listed multiple times Fail to sell 47.4% of all listings failed to sell Multiple listing periods 36.3% of sellers required multiple listing periods, selling at a median of -25.2 percentage points of original list price lower after a median of 11 times more days on market
51
The Case for Getting it Right the First Time

Desired Seller Price
$
(Illustration using 3Q 2011 $300K-$499K price reduction numbers)
Suggested Market Price

$
300,000 Listed Price
95.5 X_______%
330,000 Listed Price

X_______ % 84.3
Median L/SP% ___Quarter
(Used S/L %s for this price range)
278,190 Sales Price
286,500 Sales Price
(Used DOMs for this price range)
Required ____Days 204
Median DOM ___Quarter
Required ____Days 59
Summary
30,000 Even though the Suggested Price is $__________________ Lower than the Desired Price, the
+$8,310 -4.8 Faster Sale Nets the Seller $____________________ More and Saves__________Months in Time
52

When a price reduction was required, substantially lower S/L ratios occurred in all price ranges in 3Q 2011, but there were large differences in degree among the various price ranges For example, the ratio for a price-reduced property dropped a whopping -32.5 percentage points, below that of a non-price reduced property, in the <$100K range, where the difference was -9.1 percentage points in the $200K-$299K range
53

Higher-priced properties normally take longer to sell, but when a price reduction was necessary in 3Q 2011, the differences were substantially greater in all price ranges
Sellers across these price ranges needed 6.4 times longer to sell when a price reduction was required Conversely, Sellers pricing their property correctly for the current market, were able to sell in a very reasonable time period a median of 31 days across all price ranges
54
The Case for Getting it Right the First Time

Desired Seller Price
$ Listed Price
X_______ %
Median L/SP% ___Quarter
Suggested Market Price

$ Listed Price
X_______%
Sales Price
Sales Price
Required ____Days
Median DOM ___Quarter
Required ____Days
Summary
Even though the Suggested Price is $__________________ Lower than the Desired Price, the Faster Sale Nets the Seller $____________________ More and Saves__________Months in Time
55

2011 4Q Detached Quarterly Report

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Presentable Market Data

About This Report

Current Market Overview

Macro View: National Market

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Comparison to 4Q 2010: Better Same Worse

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

As sales increased in 4Q 2011, the median sales price fell by -8.7%

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Resale properties median sales price was also lower by -9.8%

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

4Q 2011 Median Days on Market

Comparison to 4Q 2010: Better Same Worse

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Whats the REAL STORY?

Total Closed Listings

84.0% S/L* 125 DOM*

* Medians: Half are

76.5% S/L* 192 DOM*

95.7% S/L* 35 DOM*

Not Previously Listed

Not Previously Listed

67.7% S/L* 339 DOM*

Single Family Detached Residences

Single Family Detached Residences

Cleveland Area Buyers Market

Price vs. Competition

Out of The Market