A Framework for Flood Risk Management

An Introduction

Dr John Porter

A good place to start if we want to prepare a strategic framework for managing flood risk is to define flood risk. What is flood risk?

There is no one definition of flood risk, but one that proves very useful for a strategic framework is

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

Hazard is a potential for harm, loss or damage. Hazard exists wherever land is liable a potential for harm, loss or Hazard is to flooding. Hazard increases with probability and depth of inundation, and damage. with velocity of flow. Hazard exists wherever land is liable to flooding. Hazard increases with probability and depth of inundation, and with velocity of flow.
VISTULA RIVER, POLAND

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

Exposure Even where a hazard exists, there is no risk unless there are assets that can be damaged, or there is danger because people live in, work in, or simply transit through the location of flood hazard. Exposure to flood hazard creates the potential for personal danger or property damage to occur during floods.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

The consequences of flooding and therefore the risk also depends on how vulnerable people and their assets are to danger and damage. Vulnerability can be reduced if people and authorities: take appropriate precautions in advance of flooding, know what to do to limit danger and damage during floods, and receive adequate warning and appropriate assistance during and after floods.

FUZHOU, CHINA

Defining flood risk as RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY is very useful because the measures we use in flood management can be regarded as modifying (reducing) one of these 3 key elements of risk.

MODIFYING HAZARD Flood control dams Detention basins Levees or dikes Flood diversion channels River channel improvements Upper watershed management STRUCTURAL

MODIFYING EXPOSURE Zoning of land use Property acquisition Planning development controls Building codes Flood-proofing buildings Building on platforms or stilts

MODIFYING VULNERABILITY Flood monitoring and warning Flood forecasting Emergency response plans Community awareness Community preparedness Post-flood recovery & reconstruction Flood insurance NON-STRUCTURAL

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

NOTE ABOUT Exposure to Flood Hazard

This involves land management in addition to water management.
In normal circumstances there is a clear division between water and land. Water is contained within rivers, lakes and other water bodies. During floods, the water regime expands to temporarily inundate land which most of the time can be used for productive purposes. Therefore, unlike other aspects of water resources management, flood risk management must embrace both land use management and water management.

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

NOTE ABOUT Vulnerability

Many have identified that communities are more vulnerable to flood risk if there is greater poverty, in communities with low standards of education, and in societies with poor governance.

INDUS RIVER, PAKISTAN

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability or susceptibility This is true. Programs aimed at reducing poverty and improving education and political governance will reduce vulnerability and flood risk. However, we can introduce a new category for these issues and regard them as issues of Susceptibility rather than Vulnerability. They are different because they deal with the ills of society as a whole, are less specific to flood risk as they affect many other aspects of community life too. And in that sense, although they are relevant to management of flood risk, they are not proper undertakings for flood risk management alone.

Comprehensive flood risk management must therefore consider treatment of all three elements of flood risk: HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY

Consideration of flood risk as the product of Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability only deals with what we do to manage flood risk.

A strategic framework for flood risk management must also consider how we organize and how we plan for management of flood risk. It should also consider the impacts of what we do on the environment and the community. Therefore, other important dimensions of a strategic management framework are: INSTITITIONAL FOUNDATION PLANNING METHODOLOGY or STRUCTURE EXOGENOUS IMPACTS (social & environmental)

LEGISLATION

POLICY ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY

FUNDING EDUCATION & PROFESSIONAL TRAINING

INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION

INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION
Typically, responsibilities relevant to flood management are fragmented between multiple government agencies.

Effective partnership between agencies directed toward coordinated management of flood risk is one of the greatest institutional challenges.

WROCLAW, POLAND

PLANNING METHODOLOGY

A well structured method is recommended to capture the strengths of integrated flood manage-ment through: rigorous technical analysis, comprehensive assessment of planning options, appraisals based on the triple bottom line of sustainable development (economic viability, social equity and environmental acceptability), benefit-cost analysis and stakeholder participation.

Define Management Objectives

collect data

PRELIMINARY PHASE

Understand Planning Context

population characteristics property & infrastructure institutional arrangements planning instruments

CONSULTATION PROCESS

Identify & Quantify Flood Risk

estimate hydrological risk hydraulic model analysis map existing flood hazard & land use

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Identify Alternative Flood Management Options

combinations of structural & non-structural measures evaluate future risk consider how to manage residual risk

APPRAISAL PHASE

Appraisal of Impacts

economic analysis tangible & intangible social benefits / disbenefits environment adverse impacts & opportunities robustness, resilience to future uncertainty

Recommend Preferred Option

refine analysis; examine assumptions document plan APPROVAL IMPLEMENTATION

FLOOD MANAGEMENT PLAN

PLANNING METHODOLOGY

PLANNING METHODOLOGY

PLANNING component of the framework

Structured Planning Method o Definition of management objectives start with desired outcomes, not a proposed solution o Understanding of the planning context consider preexisting plans & local factors o Identification & quantification of flood risk: technical analyses o Identification & consideration of alternative ways to manage the flood risk different options comprising packages of FM measures o Appraisal of impacts economic, social & environmental benefits & costs o Recommendation of a preferred option refinement of solutions; closer examination of assumptions; documentation o Stakeholder participation opportunity for consultation at each step of the process

PLANNING METHODOLOGY

RIVER BASIN MASTER PLANS

PROJECT PLANNING
SUB-BASIN MASTER PLANS
e.g. - tributaries - river reaches to mitigate specific flooding problems, either at single or joint local government scale

(over several local govt jurisdictions) - lake / wetland

URBAN DRAINAGE MASTER PLANS

for internal drainage of cities to mitigate urban flooding

complexes

RURAL DRAINAGE MASTER PLANS

to mitigate waterlogging of agricultural land

SAFEGUARDS & SUSTAINABILITY Social impacts may be positive or negative, and attention must EXOGENOUS be directed during planning and design to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, and enhance beneficial outcomes. In IMPACTS particular, impacts on those displaced or resettled, on indigenous groups, on the disabled, aged or infirm, or on gender groups need to be examined and assessed. Environmental impacts may include unintentional but foreseeable impacts on the physical environment, or on the biosphere.

EXOGENOUS Safeguards:
IMPACTS Environmental protection safeguards Location and storage of hazardous materials Involuntary resettlement social safeguards Indigenous peoples social safeguards Assessments of the social implications for gender (womens issues) Assessments of social implications for disabled, infirm or disadvantaged persons Locations of strategic community services

PLANNING
River basin master plans Project proposal planning & appraisal : risk assessment : appraisal of alternative options Planning for emergency response Planning for post-flood recovery Urban drainage master plans Rural drainage master plans

FLOOD HAZARD
Flood Control Works Structural planning & design Asset maintenance: monitoring condition rehabilitation /upgrading funding Operations: decision support systems communications systems data acquisition networks integration with WR management env.management Catchment Management Soil conservation Upland land use management

VULNERABILITY
Flood forecasting hydrological models hydraulic models & DTMs flood hazard maps data acquisition networks Flood warning & emergency response communications systems preparedness exercises decision support systems Post-flood recovery support services: health, counseling material support: food, shelter infrastructure repairs financial assistance & incentives compensation / flood insurance Land Use Management building regulations

EXPOSURE
Land Use Management flood hazard zoning land use planning controls property acquisitions resettlement

INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION
Partnerships: across levels of government Restructuring: enhancing coordination between different levels of government Legislation: clarifying mandates Training / awareness / capacity building

ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARDS

COMMUNITY CONSULTATION

SOCIAL SAFEGUARDS

GENDER ISSUES

INDIGENOUS PEOPLES SAFEGUARDS

There is the strategic framework for flood risk management.

Key requirements to make it effective are LEGISLATION THAT CLEARLY DELEGATES ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES A KEY COORDINATION ROLE MANDATED FOR ONE LEAD AGENCY IN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT (or DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT) WITH STRONG POWERS TO OBLIGE PARTICIPATION BY ALL STAKEHOLDERS IN JOINT PLANNING BROADER STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION THROUGH COMMUNITY CONSULTATION DURING THE PLANNING PROCESS

A sound institutional foundation is of crucial importance.

THANK YOU
THE END
MANILA, PHILIPPINES