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CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA FINAL EXAMINATION

COURSE COURSE CODE EXAMINATION TIME

INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS / BUSINESS STATISTICS QMT181/212/216/412 APRIL 2010 3 HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1. 2. 3. This question paper consists of five (5) questions Answer ALL questions in the Answer Booklet. Start each answer on a new page. Do not bring any material into the examination room unless permission is given by the invigilator. Please check to make sure that this examination pack consists of : i) ii) iii) iv) the Question Paper a three - page Appendix (Formula List) an Answer Booklet - provided by the Faculty a graph paper - provided by the Faculty

4.

DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

This examination paper consists of 6 printed pages
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CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

QUESTION 1 a) Determine whether the following variables is qualitative, quantitative discrete or quantitative continuous: i) ii) iii) iv) Income of workers in an accounting firm, Time taken to serve a customer at a bank counter, Computer brands exhibited at the PIKOM PC Fair, The number of skilled workers in a firm (4 marks) b) Identify the type of sampling technique used in each of the following situations: i) A survey on Denggi is to be conducted in Selangor. The population is divided into rural and urban areas. 10% of the urban and rural population are to be selected randomly, A sample of product is obtained by selecting every 100th item on assembly line, Random numbers generated by a computer for the selection of serial numbers of cars for test drive, An auto parts supplier obtains a sample of all stocked items from each of 12 different randomly selected branch offices. (4 marks) c) State whether each of the following statement is TRUE or FALSE: i) ii) iii) iv) v) vi) vii) viii) In stratified sampling the characteristic of the population units in the same group is heterogeneous, Simple random sampling is based on probability concept, Quota sampling requires a sampling frame, In systematic sampling one of the demerits is that this sampling technique is not totally random, The variable marital status is an example of a qualitative variable, The weight of papaya is considered to be a continuous variable, One disadvantage of the median is that it is not unique, An outlier is an extremely high or an extremely low data value when compared with the rest of the data values. (8 marks)

ii) iii) iv)

d)

Draw a chart that best represents the data to display the relative percentage of the different areas of employment for the accounting graduates. Area Accounting Marketing Finance General Management Others Total Number of graduates 82 28 63 12 15 200 (4 marks)

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CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

QUESTION 2

a)

Three classes taught by a lecturer were given the same test after 3 weeks of lecturers. The scores were as follows: Statistical measures Mean Median Mode Standard deviation i) Class A 85 75 65 12 Class B 65 65 65 8 Class C 65 75 85 10

Using an appropriate calculation, determine which class has the most consistent performance. (4 marks) Which distribution of scores is skewed to the right? Sketch the distribution by showing the position of the mean, median and mode. (2 marks)

ii)

b)

The following stem-and-leaf display is prepared for the number of hours that 40 students spent working on computers during the past month. Stem 3 4 5 Leaf 0 3 6 7 3 5 5 6 7 8 0 1 1 2 4 5 5 7 8 9

6
7 8 i)

3 4 6 7 7 7 8 9
2 2 3 5 6 6 9 0 4 7 8 9 Stem: ten digits Leaf: one digits

Construct a frequency distribution with a class width of 10 and begin the first class interval with 30. Label each column in context of the problem. (2 marks) Draw a histogram and estimate the modal value. (5 marks)

ii)

iii)

Use the frequency distribution in (i) to determine the mean and standard deviation. (5 marks) Calculate the coefficient of skewness for the number of hours spent. Comment on the shape of the distribution. (2 marks)

iv)

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CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

QUESTION 3

a)

The following data shows the final grade of twelve candidates in Statistics and Economics examinations. Candidate Statistics Economics 1 A B 2 B C 3 B A 4 C D 5 C C 6 C B 7 D C 8 D E 9 D D 10 E D 11 F E 12 F F

Calculate the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. obtained.

Explain the results that are (5 marks) .

b)

Malaysian Highway Authority is studying the relationship between the number of bidders on a highway project and the winning (lowest) bid for the project. Project 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 i) ii) Numbers of Bidders 9 9 3 10 5 10 7 11 6 6 4 7 7 7 6 Winning Bid (RM millions) 5.3 7.8 10.1 8.0 6.7 7.5 9.1 5.5 8.8 7.9 10.5 9.4 8.3 6.8 7.7

State the independent variable and the dependent variable. (2 marks) Calculate the Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient to determine whether there is a linear relationship between the number of bidders and the winning bid. Interpret the meaning of the value obtained. (4 marks) Using the least square method, find the equation of the regression line of the number of bidders against the winning bid. (5 marks) Determine the coefficient of determination and comment on its value. (2 marks)

iii)

iv)

v)

Predict the number of bidder for the project if the winning bid is RM8 millions. (2 marks) CONFIDENTIAL

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CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

QUESTION 4

a)

Besides trend and seasonal variation, briefly explain another component of time series data and give an example. (4 marks) The production of motor vehicles in a car manufacturing plant over the period 20062008 is given in the following table. Year 2006 2007 2008 Production ('000) Quarter 2 Quarter 3 4.0 4.5 5.0 7.0 5.5 6.6

b)

Quarter 1 3.5 5.5 5.5

Quarter 4 6.5 7.5 8.5

The trend line was computed as T = 3.98 + 0.28t, where t = 1 for the first Quarter of 2006. i) Calculate the trend values. (4 marks) ii) Determine the seasonal index for every quarter. (6 marks)

iii)

Interpret the seasonal index for the second and third quarter. (2 marks)

iv)

Forecast the demand for the fourth quarter of 2009. (4 marks)

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CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

QUESTION 5 a) The price of three brands of 14 kilograms washing machine and the quantity sold at SureMaju Shop for 2005 and 2008 are as follows. Brand Samsung Panasonic Toshiba 2005 Price (RM) 999 1299 1099 Quantity 40 35 30 Price (RM) 1299 1999 1799 2008 Quantity 45 25 15

Using 2005 as the base year, i) calculate simple average of the price relative index for the three brands for 2008. (4 marks) calculate Laspeyres' quantity index for 2008. Comment on your answer. (4 marks)

ii)

b)

An accounting firm has three departments. Each department consists of account clerks, executives and accountants. The numbers are as follows; Department 1 1 2 8 Department 2 3 5 14 Department 3 2 3 12

Accountants Executives Account clerks

If five workers are selected at random, find i) the number of ways at least three workers from Department 3 were chosen. (4 marks) the probability that two executives were chosen. (2 marks) c) A consulting firm rent cars from two agencies, 45% from agency P and 55% from agency Q. It is known that 8% of the cars from agency P and 6% of the cars from agency Q have bad tyres. i) Draw a tree diagram for the above situation. (2 marks) ii) Find the firm will get a car with bad tyres. (2 marks) iii) If a car rented by the firms has good tyres, find the probability that it came from agency Q. (2 marks)

ii)

END OF QUESTION PAPER

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APPENDIX 1

CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

FORMULA LIST Sample Measurements

Mean,

2> or 2>
*- - Yf
x = Lm +
-

Median,

Mode,

x = Lm +

A1

A;

Standard Deviation, s

n-1

2> - *)

T7\2

or

n-1

(2
(Z"<)

s =

n-1

f(x - x)2

or

n-1

Z< x '

Coefficient of Variation, CV= x100 x , ,, ,_. Mean-Mode n Pearson s Measure of Skewness = Standard Deviation where n total frequency lower median class boundary lower modal class boundary

3(Mean-Median) or Standard Deviation

U
- mo

cumulative frequencies for the classes before the median class median class frequency (modal class frequency) - (frequency for the class before the modal class) (modal class frequency) - (frequency for the class after the modal class) class size CONFIDENTIAL

fm

A,

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APPENDIX 2

CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

Correlation and Regression 1. Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (ZXY)or

(ZX)(IY)

n(IXY)-(ZX)(IY) [n(D(2)-(IX)2][n(XY2)-(IY)2

(IX 2 )-

(IX)2 n

{*>)-

(lY)'

2. Spearman's Rank Correlation: ps = 1 -

e^d2 n(n2-l)

3. The least- squares regression line of Y against X, Y = a + bX (ZXY)r

'(lX)(IYp
n 2^ (2X)

0)

b_n(XY)-(SX)(ZY) 2 2

n(X )-(X)

W)
(ii) x? u v a = Y-bX or (y) u ( ^ ) -^-^-b--

2,

Index Numbers y p,q0

1. Laspeyres Price Index = - ^ x100 y PtQt Paasche Price Index = ^ x 1 0 0

2.

ypt
3. 4. Simple Aggregate Price Index = ^ x 100

2>o
Weighted Aggregate Price Index = where p0 = price of the base year pt = price of the current year q 0 = quantity of the base year q t = quantity of the current year w = weights
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_5>

Z Pow

x100

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APPENDIX 3

CS/APR 2010/QMT181/212/216/412

Probability Theory 1. Conditional Probability

P(AIB)=P(AnB> P(B) 2. Multiplicative Rule a) P(AnB) = P(B).P(AIB) b) P(A n B) = P(A) .P( B) if and if only if A and B are independent events. 3. Bayes Theorem P(AIB)P(A).P(BIA) P(A).P(BIA) + P(A').P(BIA')

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