Petroleum Reserves Estimation Methods

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Decline Curves
A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the wells production rate on the yaxis versus time on the x-axis. The plot is usually done on a semilog paper; i.e. the y-axis is logarithmic and the x-axis is linear. When the data plots as a straight line, it is modeled with a constant percentage decline exponential decline. When the data plots concave upward, it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as harmonic decline. The most common decline curve relationship is the constant percentage decline (exponential). With more and more low productivity wells coming on stream, there is currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production rates (hyperbolic and harmonic). Although some wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic or harmonic decline extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases. Overexuberance in the use of hyperbolic or harmonic relationships can result in excessive reserves estimates. Figure 5 is an example of a production graph with exponential and harmonic extrapolations.

Figure 5: Decline curve of an oil well Decline curves are the most common means of forecasting production. They have many advantages: Data is easy to obtain, They are easy to plot, They yield results on a time basis, and They are easy to analyze.

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Petroleum Reserves Estimation Methods

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If the conditions affecting the rate of production of the well are not changed by outside influences, the curve will be fairly regular, and, if projected, will furnish useful knowledge as to the future production of the well.

Exponential Decline
As mentioned above, in the exponential decline, the wells production data plots as a straight line on a semilog paper. The equation of the straight line on the semilog paper is given by:

q = qi e Dt
Where: q qi D t = = = = wells production rate at time t, STB/day wells production rate at time 0, STB/day nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day time, day

The following table summarizes the equations used in exponential decline. Exponential Decline b = 0 Description Rate Cumulative Oil Production Nominal Decline Rate Effective Decline Rate Life Equation q = qi e Dt q q Np = i D D = ln (1 De ) q q De = i qi

De = 1 e D ln (qi / q ) t= D

Example #3: A well has declined from 100 BOPD to 96 BOPD during a one month period. Assuming exponential decline, predict the rate after 11 more

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Petroleum Reserves Estimation Methods

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months and after 22.5 months. Also predict the amount of oil produced after one year.

Solution:
qi = 100 BOPD q = 96 BOPD t = 1 month

1. Calculate the effective decline rate per month:

De =

qi q 100 96 = = 0.04 / month qi 100

2. Calculate the nominal decline rate per month:

D = ln(1 De ) = ln (1 0.04 ) = ln (0.96) = 0.040822/month

3. Calculate the rate after 11 more months:

q = qi e Dt = 100e (0.040822 x12 ) = 61.27 BOPD

4. Calculate the rate after 22.5 months:

q = qi e Dt = 100e (0.040822 x 22.5 ) = 39.91 POPD

5. Calculate the nominal decline rate per year:

D = 0.040822/month x 12 = 0.48986/year
6. Calculate the cumulative oil produced after one year:

Np =

qi q (100 61.27 ) STB / D = * 365D / Y = 28,858 STB D 0.489864 / Y

This completes the solution.

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Petroleum Reserves Estimation Methods

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Hyperbolic Decline
Alternatively, if the wells production data plotted on a semilog paper concaves upward, then it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. The equation of the hyperbolic decline is given by:

q = qi (1 + bDi t )
Where: q qi Di b t = = = = =

1 b

wells production rate at time t, STB/day wells production rate at time 0, STB/day initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), 1/day hyperbolic exponent time, day

The following table summarizes the equations used in hyperbolic decline: Hyperbolic Decline b > 0, b 1 Description Rate Cumulative Oil Production Equation

q = qi (1 + bDi t ) Np =

1 b

Nominal Decline Rate Effective Decline Rate Life

qib (qi1b q1b ) Di (1 b ) 1 b Di = (1 Dei ) 1 b q q Dei = i qi

De = 1 e D

(qi / q )b 1 t=
bDi

Example #4: Given the following data:

qi = 100 BOPD Di = 0.5 / year b = 0.9

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Petroleum Reserves Estimation Methods

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Assuming hyperbolic decline, predict the amount of oil produced for five years.

Solution:
1. Calculate the well flow rate at the end of each year for five years using:

q = qi (1 + bDi t )

1 b

= (100)(1 + 0.9 x 0.5 xt )

1 0.9

= 100(1 + 0.45t )

1 0.9

BOPD

2. Calculate the cumulative oil produced at the end of each year for five years using:
qib (qi1b q1b ) Np = Di (1 b ) =

= 460598.9 * (1.584893 q 0.1 )

(100)0.9 (100(10.9 ) q (10.9 ) ) 365 days 0.5(1 0.9 ) year

3. Form the following table: Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 Rate at End of Year 100 66.176 49.009 38.699 31.854 26.992 Cum. Production 0 29,524 50,248 66,115 78,914 89,606 Yearly Production 29,524 20,724 15,867 12,799 10,692

This completes the solution.

Harmonic Decline
A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as harmonic decline, where b is taken to be equal to 1. The following table summarizes the equations used in harmonic decline:

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Petroleum Reserves Estimation Methods

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Harmonic Decline b = 1 Description Rate Cumulative Oil Production Nominal Decline Rate Effective Decline Rate Life

Equation qi q= 1 + bDi t q q N p = i ln i Di q Dei Di = 1 Dei q q Dei = i qi (q / q ) 1 t= i Di

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