IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report - January 2012

18 January 2012
HIGHLIGHTS
OilmarketsbegantheNewYearconfrontingahostofsupplyissues,
not least a pending EU ban on Iranian oil imports and retaliatory
threats from Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which
flows roughly onethird of world oil exports. Oil prices jumped
$45/bbl on the reports, but eased on mounting euro zone debt
issues.Brentwaslasttradingnear$112/bblandWTIat$100.50/bbl.
Clear signs of economic weakness tipped global oil demand into a

declining yearonyear trend at the end of 2011, down 0.3mb/d in
4Q11, its first such drop since the tailend of the credit crunch. The
significantly lower starting point has accordingly trimmed global oil
demandgrowthto1.1mb/dfor2012(from1.3mb/dpreviously).
NonOPEC supply fell by 140 kb/d to 53.2mb/d in December, as

rising North Sea output only partially offset a seasonal decline in
biofuelsandlacklustresupplyfromtheFSU.MiddleEastunrestand
other unplanned outages limited annual growth in 2011 to only
45kb/d. A rebound to 340 kb/d growth is expected for 1Q12, and
1.0mb/dfor2012overall,asnonOPECoutputaverages53.7mb/d.
DecemberOPECcrudeoutputroseby240kb/dto30.89mb/d,the
highest in more than three years, on a rapid recovery in supplies
from Libya, and lesser increases from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
OPECinDecemberraiseditsoutputtargetto30mb/dfor2012,close
toOMRprojectionsforthecallonOPECcrudeandstockchange.
OECD industry oil inventories rose by 4.1 mb to 2647 mb, or

57.5daysofforwardcover,inNovember,ledbyNorthAmericanand
Europeangasoline.Stocklevelsnonethelessremainedbelowthefive
year average for a fifth consecutive month. December preliminary
datashowaseasonal23.6mbdrawinOECDindustrystocks.
Global refinery crude runs are revised down by 250kb/d and

170kb/d for 4Q11 and 1Q12, to 74.8mb/d and 74.9mb/d,
respectively.Weakeconomicgrowthandmildweatherledtoglobal
demand contraction in 4Q11. A weakening economic outlook and
recentrefineryshutdownsinEuropecurbearly2012activitylevels.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE ........................................................................................................................................... 3
DEMAND .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Summary....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Global Overview ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
North America ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Europe ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Pacific ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Non-OECD ...............................................................................................................................................................................................10
China ......................................................................................................................................................................................................11
Other Non-OECD .............................................................................................................................................................................11
Goodluck Removing Subsidies ..............................................................................................................................................................12
SUPPLY ............................................................................................................................................................................................................14
Summary.....................................................................................................................................................................................................14
OPEC Crude Oil Supply .........................................................................................................................................................................15
OPEC NGLs ..............................................................................................................................................................................................17
International Sanctions Tighten Chokehold On Iran ..................................................................................................................18
Non-OPEC Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................20
OECD .........................................................................................................................................................................................................20
North America ....................................................................................................................................................................................20
North Sea .............................................................................................................................................................................................21
OECD Asia ...........................................................................................................................................................................................22
Non-OECD ...............................................................................................................................................................................................22
Latin America .......................................................................................................................................................................................22
Asia .........................................................................................................................................................................................................23
Middle East ...........................................................................................................................................................................................23
Former Soviet Union..........................................................................................................................................................................24
Kazakhstan Government Reacts Swiftly to Recent Labour Unrest .........................................................................................25
OECD STOCKS ............................................................................................................................................................................................27
Summary.....................................................................................................................................................................................................27
OECD Inventories at End-November and Revisions to Preliminary Data ........................................................................27
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes ..........................................................................................................................28
OECD North America ......................................................................................................................................................................28
Storage Expansion at Cushing ....................................................................................................................................................29
OECD Europe .....................................................................................................................................................................................30
OECD Pacific .......................................................................................................................................................................................31
Recent Developments in Singapore and China Stocks ....................................................................................................................32
PRICES .............................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Summary.....................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Market Overview .....................................................................................................................................................................................34
Futures Markets ........................................................................................................................................................................................36
Activity Levels ......................................................................................................................................................................................36
Market Regulation ...............................................................................................................................................................................37
Swap Execution Facilities ...................................................................................................................................................................38
Spot Crude Oil Prices .............................................................................................................................................................................39
Spot Product Prices .................................................................................................................................................................................41
Freight .........................................................................................................................................................................................................43
Floating Storage Falls Away. .........................................................................................................................................................43
REFINING .......................................................................................................................................................................................................44
Summary.....................................................................................................................................................................................................44
Global Refinery Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................44
OECD Refinery Throughput..................................................................................................................................................................46
Petroplus Latest Victim of European Downstream Malaise................................................................................................... 49
Non-OECD Refinery Throughput ........................................................................................................................................................51
TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................................................................54
I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT
M ARKET O VERVIEW
BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
OPEC Ministers came away from a midDecember meeting having agreed to a new production target,
close to both recent output levels and expected 2012 demand for their crude of around 30 mb/d.
Indeed,bothourownandOPECsoilmarketreportsconvergeonalikelycallfor2012nearsuchlevels,
evenifouranalysissuggeststhecallwasratherhigherin2011(hencethecontinuedtighteninginOECD
inventory evident last year). Consensus on the market outlook may be a force for greater stability, so
longasitdoesnotgenerateafalsesenseofsecurity.Andpricesformajorcrudebenchmarkshaveshown
remarkablestability(WTIaside)sincespringtimelastyear,oscillatingwithina$100$120/bblrange.
$/bbl
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Mar 08
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
World: Total Demand, Y-o-Y Growth

m b/d
OECD
Non-OECD
World
Source: ICE, NYMEX
3
2
1
(1)
(2)
(3)
Dec 08 Sep 09 Jun 10 Mar 11

NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
Dec 11
(4)
1Q07
4Q07
3Q08
2Q09
1Q10
4Q10
3Q11
However,twoinherentlydestabilisingfactorsareinteractingtogiveanimpressionofpricestabilitythat
ismoreapparentthanreal.Thesefactorsareinfluencingfuturesmarketperceptionsasmuchastheyare
drivingsentimentinphysicalmarkets.Thefirstisarisinglikelihoodofsharpeconomicslowdown,ifnot
outrightrecession,in2012.Although mediacoveragehassubsidedfromthelevelsofearlyDecember,
eurozoneindebtednesshasnotgoneaway,asdowngradestothecreditratingsofanumberofmajor
economiestestify.Privatesectorcreditisalsoinshortsupply,asthetravailsofrefinerPetroplusshow.
Slowingoildemandgrowthhasoutpaceddowngradestoeconomicforecastsfor2012.Wepersistwitha
business as usual base case for GDP and oil demand, but have scaled back expectations for 2012 oil
demandgrowthtonearer1mb/d.WealsoacknowledgethatupcomingrevisionstotheGDPforecastsof
theIMFandotherinstitutionsmightresultinmuchweakergrowthstill,evenifnottothezerogrowth
impliedbyourlowerGDPvariant.Asusual,identifyingasinglesmokinggun,forpricesoroildemand,
remainsdifficult.Mild4Q11weatherontheonehand,andincrementalJapaneseoildemandforpower
generation on the other, blur the picture. That said, economic concerns and slowing demand growth
havesofarplacedaceilingoverpricessincetheirpeakbackinspring2011.
The second factor, which is counteracting bearish pressures, is the physical market tightening evident
sincemid2009,andnotablysincemid2010.Incontrastto2010,tighteningin2011derivedfromsupply
sideshortfalls.LastyearsawnonOPECsupplyhitby600700kb/dofunscheduleddisruptionsbetween
2Q11and4Q11.TheLibyancrisishastodatecutsuppliestothemarketbynearly425mb,andonly75%
ofthishasbeenmadeupbyhigherotherOPECsuppliesandtheIEALibyaCollectiveAction.Now,the
focus for geopolitical risks has shifted to Nigeria, Iraq and most pressingly, Iran. At least a portion of
Irans2.5mb/dofcrudeexportswilllikelybedeniedtoOECDrefinersduringsecondhalf2012,although
moreapocalypticscenariosforsustaineddisruptiontoStraitofHormuztransitslooklesslikely.
A sustained spell of oil price stability is often seen as a good thing. But if it derives from the rock of
potentialeconomicslumpontheonehand,andthehardplaceofpossiblegeopoliticalturmoilonthe
other,thatisscarcelyasourceofcomfort.
18J ANUARY 2012
D EMAND
DEMAND
Summary
The outlook for global oil demand in 2012 is for a more conservative 1.1 mb/d of additional
consumption (1.3 mb/d previously), as heavy baseline data revisions feed through. The key
contributor is the reduction of 0.3 mb/d made to the 4Q11 demand estimate which, along with
additionalseasonalcurtailmentsandearlyindicatorsofJanuarydemand, promptedafurthercutof
0.5mb/dfor1Q12.Growthwillnonethelessacceleratefrom2011s0.7mb/dtrajectory.
The twospeed market will endure, with nonOECD economies providing relatively strong growth
that more than absorbs the absolute declines foreseen in the OECD. Developing economies saw
consumptionriseby1.3mb/din2011(or3%),to43.4mb/d,andareseenacceleratingverymodestly
to an increase of 1.4 mb/d (3.2%) in 2012. The comparable metrics for the OECD are declines of
0.6mb/d(or1.2%)in2011,to45.6mb/d,and0.3mb/d(0.7%)in2012.NonOECDAsiadominates
thegrowthtrajectorythroughout,providinggainsof0.7mb/din2011and0.8mb/din2012.
Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)

(million barrels per day)
Africa
Americas
Asia/Pacific
Europe
FSU
Middle East
World
Annual Chg (%)
Annual Chg (mb/d)
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
29.5 30.0 30.5 30.2
27.2 26.9 26.7 28.3
15.0 14.9 15.6 15.5
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.6
7.4
7.8
8.3
7.7
86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.5
2.2
2.7
3.0
3.0
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2010
3.4
30.1
27.3
15.3
4.5
7.8
88.3
3.2
2.7
0.01
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
30.0 29.8 30.2 29.6 29.9
28.6 27.3 27.4 28.7 28.0
14.9 14.8 15.4 15.0 15.0
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.9
4.7
7.6
8.0
8.5
7.9
8.0
89.0 87.9 89.5 89.5 89.0
2.5
0.5
0.5
-0.3
0.8
2.2
0.4
0.5
-0.3
0.7
0.02 0.05 0.11 -0.31 -0.03
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
29.8 29.7 30.3 30.0 30.0
29.2 28.3 28.1 29.5 28.8
14.5 14.5 15.2 15.0 14.8
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.9
4.7
7.9
8.3
8.7
8.1
8.3
89.5 89.0 90.7 91.1 90.0
0.6
1.2
1.3
1.7
1.2
0.5
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.1
-0.51 -0.26 -0.06 -0.06 -0.22
An economic sensitivity analysis, with global GDP growth onethird lower than in our base case
(2.6%in2012asopposedto3.9%),wouldeffectivelyleave2012globaloilconsumptionunchanged
at2011levels.ThisalternativescenarioisbasedupontheveryrealpossibilitythatEuropescurrent
financial and economic woes with many nations already bogged down in the early stages of
recessionremainunsolved,spillingoverintosignificantlylowergrowthelsewhere.
A threepronged attack of mild winter weather, European economic malaise and elevated oil
prices combined to curtail 0.3 mb/d from the global 4Q11 demand estimate, to 89.5mb/d,
pushingdemandbacktowardsaclearlydecliningyearonyeartrendforthefirsttimesincetheglobal
credit crunch. The US felt the brunt of the downward adjustment, as early signs of a slightly more
optimisticeconomicpicturetherefailedtofilterthroughintooildemand.
Global Overview
An exceptionally precarious economic backdrop in the fourth quarter of 2011 saw oil consumption
globally return to a declining trend. Global oil demand fell by 0.3 mb/d (or 0.3%) yearonyear, to
89.5mb/d,asmuchofEuropestruggledwiththeearlystagesofrecession.Elevatedoilprices,partlya
consequence of the standoff with Iran, further dampened prospects, as did mild northern hemisphere
weather.Oildemandwilllikelyconfrontthisgrowthimpedingcombinationofaweakeningeconomyand
high crude prices through the early stages of 2012.It remains to be seen how this combination works
going forward, and the extent to which high prices beget weaker economic and oil demand growth,
leadingeventuallytoaloosermarket.
The lower fourthquarter demand number not only cemented an anaemic annual growth rate for the
yearasawholenow0.7mb/dfor2011butitalsounderminedprospectsfor2012,asworlddemand
18J ANUARY 2012
D EMAND
is now starting from a lower base. Global oil product demand growth of 1.1 mb/d is now foreseen in
2012,0.2mb/dlessthantheexpansionassumedpreviously.Theunderlyingmodelgeneratesglobaloil
demand averaging 90.0 mb/d in 2012, 0.2 mb/d less than assumed last month. Leading 2012 demand
growthisastrongnonOECDincreaseof1.4mb/d,whichmorethanoffsetsthepredictedOECDdecline
of0.3mb/d.
World: Total Demand, Y-o-Y Growth

m b/d
OECD
Non-OECD
m b/d
27
World
4
3
World: Gasoil Demand
26
2
1
25
(1)
24
(2)
23
(3)
Jan
(4)
1Q07
4Q07
3Q08
2Q09
1Q10
4Q10
3Q11
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Despite maintaining the annual growth rate assumed in last months report (+0.7 mb/d), global oil
demand in 2011 nonetheless suffered from a 0.3 mb/d fourth quarter reduction, to 89.5 mb/d. The
reduction failed to dent 2011 growth due to a combination of rounding through the year and upside
revisions to the third quarter data. The US faced the brunt of this fourth quarter curtailment, as early
indicationsforNovemberUSdemandremainedweakdespitethenotableupturnintherecenteconomic
newsfeedfromtheUS.
Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012

thousand barrels per day
North America
Europe
FSU
464
283
241
-110
40
-171
-256
1410
Middle East
-117
290
146
-306
229
Asia
722
843
Latin America
312
168
196
67
Africa
136
Global Demand Growth

(mb/d)
-54
2010
2011
2012
2.72
0.66
1.16
3.2%
0.7%
1.3%
Havingledtheglobalupsidesince2010,gasoilwillonceagaindominatein2012,withaprojectedannual
expansion of 1.9%. Specifically, diesel demand will benefit from the relative strength foreseen in the
industrial complex, garnering additional support from the continued dieselisation of the global vehicle
fleet.Thepersistentvolatilityofglobalenergysupplieshasalsotendedtosupportdieseldemand,thanks
largelytothepresenceofdieselpowerbackupgeneratingcapacity.ThenonOECDregionwillmaintain
itsdominantunderpinningofthegasoilmarketin2012,withgrowthof3.5%foreseen,comparedtoonly
0.2%inthe OECD.Thelastfiveyearshaveseenanaverageannualexpansionof4.7%forgasoilinthe
nonOECDand0.9%fortheOECD,withconsumptioninemergingmarketsovertakingthatfortheOECD
inmid2009.
18J ANUARY 2012
D EMAND
The forecast outlined thus far is dependent upon the most recent complete IMF global data series
publishedinSeptember,whichisunderstandablyshowingsignsofage.Theeconomicbackdrophassince
deteriorated, certainly in Europe, with likely feedthrough effects elsewhere. Next months OMR will
benefitfromtheIMFsupdateddataseries,butuntilthenthedownsiderisksareemphasisedthrougha
lowcasescenario,whicharguablyoverstatesthelikelihoodoffullblownglobalrecessionin2012.That
said,underthislowcasescenario,theunderlyingeconomicgrowthof2.6%in2012isonethirdlower,
potentiallyeliminatingglobaloildemandgrowthaltogetherfor2012.
Oil Demand Sensitivity

2010
2011
2012
2011 vs. 2010
2012 vs. 2011
mb/d
mb/d
-1.2%
3.0%
0.8%
-0.56
1.25
0.69
-0.7%
3.2%
1.2%
-0.30
1.37
1.07
-0.59
Base GDP
Global GDP (y-o-y chg)
OECD
Non-OECD
World
Lower GDP
5.0%
46.2
42.1
88.3
3.8%
45.6
43.4
89.0
3.9%
45.3
44.8
90.0
Global GDP (y-o-y chg)
5.0%
2.6%
2.6%
OECD
46.2
45.6
45.0
-1.3%
-0.58
-1.3%
Non-OECD
42.1
43.3
43.8
2.7%
1.13
1.3%
0.57
World
88.3
88.8
88.8
0.6%
0.55
0.0%
-0.02
OECD
Strongly falling demand in the OECD caused the global fourth quarter demand decline, with demand
downby1.1mb/dyearonyear(or2.3%).NotonlyhastheOECDseenafallingdemandtrendsincethe
secondquarterof2011,butalsoitisnowenduringitsweakestrelativeperformancesince2009.Within
theOECD,NorthAmericaandEuropearelikelytobetheworstperformingsubregions,withrespective
yearonyear 4Q11 contractions of 0.7 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d envisaged. Fourth quarter demand in the
Pacificregion,however,wasup2.6%,astheposttsunamisurgeinoilproductdemandinJapan,usedas
areplacementforclosednuclearreactors,continued.
m b/d
m b/d
52
0.5
0.3
0.1
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.9)
(1.1)
(1.3)
(1.5)
49
46
43
Jan
OECD: Demand Growth by Region

2007-2012
OECD: Total Oil Product Demand
Apr
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Underlying the dire 4Q11 OECD demand estimates are early indicators for November, derived from
inlanddeliveries(oilproductssuppliedbyrefineries,pipelinesandterminals),whichfellby1.7mb/d(or
3.7%)onthecorrespondingmonthin2010.Roughly,60%ofthisdeclineisattributabletoNorthAmerica,
down 1.1mb/d on the same period a year earlier, with the rest of the decline from Europe. A
continuationofcomparativelyweakOECDeconomicgrowthgoingforward,notablyforEurope,sustains
OECD2012demandcontraction,withadeclineof0.3mb/dforeseen.OECDEuropeandemandwillfall
by0.2mb/d(1.4%)in2012,NorthAmericanconsumptionisforecasttoslipbyamoremodest0.1mb/d
(0.5%)whilethePacificregionessentiallyflatlines.
OECD North Am erica

OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
18J ANUARY 2012
D EMAND
A seasonal northern hemisphere fourth quarter demand fillip was missing in 2011, as both North
AmericaandEuropesawnoticeablywarmerthanaveragetemperatures.Heatingdegreedays(HDDs)in
December, in the US and Europe, were respectively 9% and 12% lower than the 10year average.
Assumingareturntomorenormal4Q12temperatures,thisshouldaccordinglyprovidesomesupportfor
otherwiseweakOECDdemandinourforecast.
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - November 2011

Gasoline
mb/d
% pa
OECD North America*
US50
Canada
Mexico
OECD Europe
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Spain
OECD Pacific
Japan
Korea
Australia
OECD Total
10.04
8.46
0.72
0.79
2.08
0.48
0.33
0.16
0.22
0.11
1.55
0.97
0.20
0.32
13.67
-3.3
-4.0
0.8
0.1
-3.9
4.1
-2.2
-8.0
-8.1
-8.3
-3.0
-2.7
0.9
-4.2
-3.4
Jet/Kerosene
mb/d
% pa
1.62
1.43
0.10
0.05
1.18
0.18
0.31
0.14
0.08
0.10
0.84
0.50
0.19
0.13
3.64
Diesel
mb/d
% pa
-1.6
-1.0
-14.3
7.2
-5.2
1.3
-11.3
1.2
-2.4
-5.9
-13.5
-17.1
-14.7
1.5
-5.8
4.05
3.45
0.22
0.33
4.49
0.75
0.47
0.69
0.48
0.46
1.15
0.42
0.28
0.39
9.69
1.9
1.8
-3.7
7.5
-0.4
1.0
2.7
2.3
-4.2
-5.0
-0.9
-4.8
-4.9
5.0
0.5
Other Gasoil
mb/d % pa
RFO
mb/d % pa
Other
mb/d
% pa
Total Products
mb/d
% pa
0.82
0.31
0.34
0.14
1.77
0.43
0.11
0.23
0.13
0.17
0.55
0.41
0.13
0.00
3.13
0.86
0.51
0.11
0.15
1.18
0.15
0.07
0.06
0.09
0.19
0.89
0.59
0.25
0.02
2.92
5.18
3.81
0.71
0.61
3.59
0.50
0.30
0.43
0.46
0.33
3.22
1.85
1.20
0.17
12.00
22.56
17.97
2.20
2.07
14.29
2.49
1.59
1.71
1.48
1.36
8.19
4.74
2.25
1.03
45.05
-16.1
-36.1
2.1
7.5
-8.6
-4.3
-6.1
-22.7
-0.5
-26.1
-7.0
-7.9
-3.8
0.0
-10.4
-9.4
-7.8
-0.3
-23.6
-6.9
-6.8
7.1
-24.0
-13.6
0.0
22.8
51.3
-17.8
13.5
-0.4
-9.16
-11.2
-5.9
0.7
-6.9
-19.2
-4.7
-5.6
-3.7
-2.4
2.3
6.4
-1.6
-5.6
-5.6
-4.5
-5.3
-2.5
-0.2
-4.6
-4.6
-3.2
-6.0
-4.9
-7.4
0.1
2.7
-5.3
-0.1
-3.7
* Including US territories
North America
The fourth quarter demand estimate for North America was the dominant contributor to the global
revision, accounting for almost all of the total 4Q11 reduction compared to last months report. Stark
preliminary US oil demand figures for November defied the recent spate of more positive economic
news. North American consumption of oil products therefore looks likely to have fallen by 3.1%, on a
yearonyearbasis,in4Q11,withtheresidualfueloil,LPGandmotorgasolinemarketsnotablelaggards,
postingrespectiveyearonyeardeclinesof8.0%,4.0%and3.4%.Thedeclineismostpronouncedinthe
US (excluding territories), as 4Q11 consumption shed 3.8% on its corresponding value in 2010.
Particularlystarkdeclineswereseenintheheatingoil(18.9%),residualfueloil(10.9%)andLPG(5.6%)
markets,allsufferingontheunseasonablymildearlywintertemperatures.
US November demand fell despite the wave of surprisingly resilient US economic news (notably the
risingemploymenttrendandtheISMsupbeatindustrialsentimentindicator).TheUSheatingoilmarket
borethebruntofNovembersdowngrade,withdemandoffby36.1%,assubstitutionbygasforhome
heating (see The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil, OMR dated 10 November 2011) was
augmentedbytheimpactofsignificantlywarmerthannormaltemperatures.Nordoesthecombination
ofweakeningdemandamidstrongereconomicindicatorssuggestmuchoildemandupsidefor2012.
kb/d
4,700
US50: Total Oil Product Demand
kb/d
22,000
US50: Gasoil Demand
4,500
4,300
20,500
4,100
3,900
19,000
3,700
3,500
3,300
17,500
Jan
Apr
Range 2006-2010
2010
18J ANUARY 2012
Jul
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
D EMAND
MexicanoildemandstagnatedinNovember,downby0.2%onthecorrespondingmonthayearearlier,
continuing a declining trend started in September. The flat behaviour during the month masked
divergent growth rates across product categories. The fuels that weakened versus a year ago were
naphtha(26kb/d)andresidualfueloil(46kb/d). Ontheotherhand, gasoil/diesels,jet/keroseneand
otherproductsgrewbyacombined67kb/d.Industrialactivityduring2H11gavesupporttooildemand,
althoughgasolineconsumptionshowedlessdynamismduetomonthlyenduserpricehikes.Anecdotal
evidenceregardinglowwaterlevelsathydroelectricdamsimplieshigherfueloildemandin4Q11.Total
product demand fell by an estimated 0.6% in 2011, to 2.06mb/d, before declining by 0.3% in 2012 to
2.05mb/d.
Europe
Againstabackdropofweakeningeconomicperformance,regionaloildemandlooksparticularlysluggish
inEurope.AccordingtopreliminarydataforNovember,Europeanconsumptionfellby4.6%onayear
onyear basis, with similarly sized declines right across the continent. None of the major European
productcategoriesbuckedthistrend,withtheworstperformancesseenfornaphtha(17.1%),heating
oil(8.6%)andresidualfueloil(6.9%).
m b/d
16.5
m b/d
OECD Europe:
Total Oil Product Demand
OECD Europe: Total Demand Growth

by Fuel, 2010-2012
0.2
0.1
16.0
15.5
15.0
(0.1)
14.5
(0.2)
14.0
(0.3)
13.5
(0.4)
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(0.5)
2010
Diesel
2011
Other
2012
European consumption of oil products fell by 3.8%, on a yearonyear basis in 4Q11, led by naphtha,
heatingoilandresidualfueloil.AnailingEuropeanpetrochemicalmarket,awarmerthannormalwinter
andcontinuedfuelsubstitution,respectively,influencedthesedeclines.Onlythedieselmarketoffereda
semblanceofgrowthfor4Q11,up0.1%,althoughthisiswelldownonitsrecenttrend(+2.4%in1Q11)as
theeconomicbackdropdeteriorates.
Little room for optimism is apparent in 2012, with European demand forecast to fall by 0.2mb/d
(or1.4%).Despitethegloomyeconomicbackdrop,theforecastdemandcontractionislessseverethan
2011s1.9%correctionasEuropeiscomingfromsuchalowbasethataslackeningpaceofdeclineseems
inevitable,particularlyasadegreeofeconomicrecoveryisexpectedinthesecondhalfoftheyear.The
relative demand decline will also ease if, as seems likely, the 4Q12 winter turns out to be colder
than4Q11.
PreliminarydataforFranceshowoilconsumptionfellby6.0%onayearonyearbasisinNovember,with
residual fuel oil (24.0%), LPG (22.8%) and heating oil (22.7%) performing particularly poorly. In
contrast,theindustriallysignificantnaphtha(+2.5%)anddiesel(+2.3%)marketspostedabsolutegainsin
November,alongwithjet/kerosene(+1.2%).TheFrenchmanufacturingPMIrosetoafourmonthhighof
48.7inNovember(althoughstillbelowthekey50level,signallingcontraction).
Gasoline
18J ANUARY 2012
kb/d
2,250
D EMAND
kb/d German: Total Oil Product Demand

3,100
France: Total Oil Product Demand
2,150
2,900
2,050
1,950
2,700
1,850
2,500
1,750
2,300
1,650
1,550
2,100
Jan
Apr
Jul
5-year avg
Oct
2010
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jan
2011
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Germanconsumptionofoilproductsfellby4.6%inNovember,accordingtopreliminaryestimates,with
naphtha(32.2%),residualfueloil(6.8%)andheatingoil(4.3%)keydownsidecontributors.Themodest
gains in the major German transportation fuel markets, with motor gasoline consumption up 4.1%,
jet/kerosene1.3%higheranddieselgaining1.0%,suggestslightlymorerobustpotentialforGermanoil
demandrunningthrough2012thanisthecaseforsomeotherEuropeanmarkets.
UKdemandfellby3.2%,onayearonyearbasisinNovember2011,withjet/kerosene(11.3%),naphtha
(6.3%)andheatingoil(6.1%)faringparticularlybadly.Thesewereonlypartlyoffsetbyabsolutegainsin
residual fuel oil (+7.1%), diesel (+2.7%) and LPG (+0.2%). Economic indicators remain mixed, with the
CIPSBusinessActivityIndexrisingtoafivemonthhighof54.0inDecember(wherebyareadingabove50
signals an improvement in sentiment). Plenty of less favourable economic stories continue to flow
regarding the UK economy, however, as industrial output fell by 3.1% on a yearonyear basis in
November. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast UK GDP barely up at all
(+0.1%)for4Q11versus3Q11,andadramaticslowdownfromthethirdquarters0.6%gain.
Pacific
Preliminary demand data for the OECD Pacific region show a sharp deceleration in November, to a
yearonyear growth rate of 0.1%, well down on Octobers 4.6% expansion. Japanese consumption
growthfellto2.7%inNovemberfromtheheadyheightsof8.6%seeninOctober.TheJapanesemarket
nonetheless is still seeing additional power sector demand for fossil fuels in the face of nuclear
generatingcapacityclosures(seeAugustsOMRforamoredetailedexplanation)althoughbigdeclines
for other products drove the overall slowdown in demand growth. Diesel (4.8%) and gasoline (2.7%)
sawsharpreversals,havingpostedabsolutegainsinOctober,asweakeningeconomicsentimentcurbed
driving and augmented the impact of expiry of a ceiling on highway tolls earlier this year. The
Markit/JapanMaterialsManagementAssociationManufacturingPMIfelltoasevenmonthlowof49.1
in November. This has since reversed, rising to 50.2 in December, potentially lending some support to
endyeardemand.
m b/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
kb/d
6,500
OECD Pacific:
Total Oil Product Demand
Japan: Total Oil Product Demand
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
18J ANUARY 2012
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
D EMAND
Reports of warmerthannormal temperatures further undermined the November demand series,

notablytrimmingjet/kerosenedemand(down17.1%versusan,albeitinflated,November2010level).
Non-OECD
Buckingtheglobaldownsidetrend,thenonOECDregionprovidedawelcomefillip,withthepreliminary
seriesforNovemberpostinga3.1%yearonyeargain.Notonlywasthismorethanapercentagepoint
higherthanOctobers2.0%growthrate,butitwasalsosignificantlyhigherthanthegrowthassumedin
last months report (2.2%). The still relatively robust economic backdrop for the nonOECD countries
supports this stronger growth trend, and for 2012 we assume nonOECD GDP growth averages 6.2%,
after6.4%growthin2011.
Non-OECD: Demand Growth by Region

2007-2012
m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

46
m b/d Africa
1.4 Europe
1.2
1.0
0.8
44
42
40
38
34
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Asia
Middle East
0.6
0.4
0.2
(0.2)
36
Jan
Latin Am erica
FSU
Jan
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total nonOECD demand averaged 44.1mb/d in November, according to preliminary data, nearly
0.4mb/d higher than assumed in last months report. The largest upgrades were seen in China
(+210kb/d),Russia(+180kb/d)andIndia(+60kb/d),astheseeconomiesfornowseemtobeshrugging
offconcernsaboutanotherglobaleconomicslowdown,amidrelativecostadvantagescomparedtothe
developedeconomies.
Transportation fuels continue to drive demand momentum, with jet/kerosene particularly strong,
showinggrowthof8.3%onayearonyearbasisinNovember.Thepreliminarydataseriesimplystrong
expansionsingas/dieseloil(+4.1%),motorgasoline(+3.8%)andLPG/ethane(+3.7%).Onlyresidualfuel
oil(0.4%)sawayearonyeardecline.
Non-OECD: Demand by Product

(thousand barrels per day)
Demand
Annual Chg (kb/d)
Annual Chg (%)
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
LPG & Ethane
5,018
4,951
5,007
252
177
5.4
Nov-11
3.7
Naphtha
2,490
2,583
2,708
-31
30
-1.2
1.1
Motor Gasoline
8,519
8,396
8,537
213
314
2.6
3.8
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
2,813
2,780
2,916
71
225
2.6
8.3
13,440
13,578
13,780
463
542
3.5
4.1
5,430
5,549
5,532
19
-24
0.3
-0.4
Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
5,931
5,578
5,574
-128
70
-2.2
1.3
Total Products
43,641
43,413
44,054
859
1,333
2.0
3.1
ThenonOECDcountrieswillcontinuetodominategrowthlookingforward,with1.4mb/dofadditional
demandexpectedfor2012(+3.2%).Thisis130kb/dlessthanassumedinlastmonthsreport,followinga
modestdownwardadjustmentforgrowthprospectsinChina.
10
18J ANUARY 2012
D EMAND
China
ApparentChinesedemandforoilproducts(calculatedasrefineryoutputplusnetproductimports)rose
byarelativelymodest1.7%inNovember,although thisstillamountstoitssharpestgrowthratesince
August.Strongestyearonyeargrowthderivedfromjet/kerosene(+38.7%),motorgasoline(+5.7%)and
LPG (+5.5%). The industrially significant residual fuel oil (10.4%), naphtha (1.6%) and diesel (0.7%)
lagged behind, and may reflect Novembers dip in manufacturing sentiment, with the official PMI of
purchasingmanagersactivityfallingtoa32monthlowof49.
kb/d
10,000
kb/d
3,600
China: Total Oil Product Demand
9,500
3,400
9,000
3,200
8,500
3,000
8,000
2,800
7,500
2,600
7,000
2,400
6,500
China: Gasoil Demand
2,200
Jan
Apr
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
DespiteconcernsofaslowingChineseeconomy,Novembersdemandlevelisstill0.2mb/dmorethan
forecastinlastmonthsreport,andthesubdued1.7%yearonyeargrowthrateneedstobeconsidered
in the context of strong 4Q10 Chinese demand amid restrictions on power sector and industrial
coalburn.
Chinese demand is expected to have bottomed out in 4Q11, remaining flat versus 4Q10, before
embarking on a gentle acceleration through 2012. Consumption is expected to expand by 4.3% in the
yearasawholenearlyonewholepercentagepointdownonourmonthearlierforecast.Thisreflectsa
lower 1Q12 baseline, and an easing of economic growth from 9.5% to 9.0% this year. Growth
nonethelessamountsto0.4mb/dofextraChineseconsumptionin2012,nearly40%ofthetotalglobal
expansion in demand. Any moves by China to expand strategic crude stocks during 2012 would come
overandabovethisproductderivedmeasureofgrowthfortheyear.
China: Demand by Product

Demand
Annual Chg (kb/d)
Annual Chg (%)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
668
691
707
24
16
3.5
2.4
Naphtha
1,129
1,159
1,205
31
45
2.7
3.9
Motor Gasoline
1,546
1,658
1,728
112
70
7.3
4.2
368
406
417
38
11
10.3
2.7
3,143
3,330
3,453
187
123
6.0
3.7
531
538
541
1.3
0.6
LPG & Ethane
Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
2012
Other Products
1,685
1,721
1,862
36
141
2.2
8.2
Total Products
9,069
9,504
9,913
435
410
4.8
4.3
Other Non-OECD
According to preliminary November estimates, Indian demand growth accelerated to 5.8%, its fastest
yearonyearclipsincetheendof2010.Stronggainswereseenintheindustriallyimportantgas/diesel
(+10.4%)andnaphtha(+7.9%)categories.HSBCsManufacturing PMIforNovember,at51.0,remained
aboveits50expansionarythreshold,andalongsidea32ndsuccessivemonthlygaininnewmanufacturing
business orders during November, further underpinned expectations for demand growth
lookingforward.
18J ANUARY 2012
11
D EMAND
India: Demand by Product

Demand
Annual Chg (kb/d)
Annual Chg (%)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
455
491
517
36
26
7.8
5.3
Naphtha
201
210
201
-9
4.2
-4.3
Motor Gasoline
338
358
374
20
16
6.0
4.6
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
299
300
300
0.2
0.1
1,290
1,372
1,438
81
66
6.3
4.8
Residual Fuel Oil
194
171
178
-23
-11.9
4.2
Other Products
559
563
566
0.8
0.4
Gas/Diesel Oil
2012
3.2
Gasolinedemandposteda6.2%yearonyeargaininNovember,asconsumersentimentreboundedin
Indias dominant service sector. The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index rose sharply in November, to
53.2,havingfallenintocontractingterritoryinOctober(49.1),despiteinflationarypressures.Despitethis
stronglateyearperformance,demandgrowthisexpectedtofallbackin2012asawholetonearer3%,
dominatedbygas/dieseloilandLPG.
Total Products
kb/d
3,000
3,337
3,465
3,574
128
kb/d
140
Brazil: Total Oil Product Demand
110
3.8
Brazil: Jet Fuel & Kerosene Demand
130
2,800
120
2,600
110
2,400
100
2,200
90
80
2,000
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
70
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Brazilian product demand grew by 1.2% yearonyear in October, boosted by jet/kerosene (10.2%),
gasoil/diesel (2.8%) and other products (1.7%). In contrast, residual fuel and motor gasoline posted
respectivedecreasesof6.4%and0.3%.During2011,jet/kerosenedemandhasbeenbuoyant,supported
by strong domestic airline activity. Passenger transport grew yearonyear by 8.8% and 16.6%,
respectivelyinOctoberandNovember.IndustrialactivityisshowinglessdynamismsinceJune,whenthe
Manufacturing PMI dropped below the 50 points benchmark. Economic activity during 4Q11 gave a
mixedsetofsignals,supportingacautiousoutlookfor2012.Braziliandemandtotals2.79mb/dfor2011,
up2%on2010,beforerisingby2.3%in2012to2.86mb/d.
Nigerianoildemandroseby5%onayearonyearbasisinOctober,onthebackoftherelativelysteady
economicgrowthtrendseenthispastyear.Absolutegainswereseeninmostofthemaincategoriesbar
motorgasolinewhichdroppedby14%,or30kb/d.Totalproductdemandisseenaveraging280kb/din
2011(down3.8%onayearonyearbasisor10kb/d)andremainingflatduring2012.
Goodluck Removing Subsidies

While the 2011 Nigerian demand forecast is based on nine months of reported data, an additional factor
that could lower the 2012 forecast is the governments new policy of eradicating the subsidy on the
preferred transport fuel, premium motor spirit (PMS). In December 2010, the average price for PMS (or
gasoline),dieselandkerosenewas$0.41/litre,$0.69/litreand$0.56/litre,respectively,thankstoheavyfossil
fuelsubsidies.During2Q11,thegovernmentcutdieselandkerosenesubsidies,allowingdieselandkerosene
pricestoincreaseto$1.01/litreand$1.0/litre,respectively.Manufacturersthatrelyonsmallgasoilpower
generatorsfeltthebruntofthischange,withmosthouseholdsonlynoticingthechangethroughkerosene
usedforcooking.
12
18J ANUARY 2012
D EMAND
Goodluck Removing Subsidies (continued)

AtthebeginningofJanuary,thegovernmentremovedgasolinesubsidies,effectivelyraisinggasolineprices
to $0.90/litre. This bold decision hit a predictable roadblock midJanuary, as workers opposed to the
inevitable price hikes went on a nationwide strike and brought the country to a virtual standstill. The
Nigerian government instigated the newyear subsidy removal programme as it revealed that the subsidy
costtheeconomy$8bnin2011,morethandoubletheestimatefor2010.
Inacountrywheretwothirdsofthepopulationliveonlessthan$1.25adayitisblatantlyunaffordableto
supportasubsidythatcostsnearly$50perpersonlastyear.Fuelsubsidiesarenotonlyenormouslywasteful
buttheyalsogreatlydistorttheefficientdistributionofresources,whilstoftenfuellingcorruption.However,
gasolinepricesmorethandoubledonthesubsidyremoval,causinggreatpoliticalunrest.Thissuggeststhat,
inhindsight,amoregradualprocessmighthavebeenadvisable.Nordothemeasuresseemtohavebeen
accompaniedbymuchinthewayofpublicconsultationortargetedassistanceforthepoorestmembersof
society.
Thenationwidestrikeendedon16January,asthegovernmentagreedtopartiallybacktrackonitssubsidy
removal programme. A gasoline price of $0.60/litre has now been set, still 50% higher than preremoval
levelsbutonethirddownontheinitialpricehike.Plansremaintoreducethesubsidyfurther,althoughthe
governmentmayhavelearnedtoadoptamorecooperativeapproachnexttime.
Nigeria is on the watch list for 2012, with oil product demand likely to fall, at least in 1Q12. Persistent
industrialdisputes,ofthekindseeninJanuary,couldfurtherreduceforecasts,notjustforoildemandbut
alsoforeconomicgrowthingeneral.
18J ANUARY 2012
13
S UPPLY
SUPPLY
Summary
Globaloilsupplyroseby100kb/dto90.0mb/dinDecember,withreboundingoutputfromLibya
andSaudiArabiapartiallyoffsetbydeclinesinnonOPECcountries.ComparedtoDecember2010,
globaloilproductionstood1.8mb/dhigher,80%ofwhichstemmedfromincreasingoutputofOPEC
crudeandNGLs.
NonOPECsupplyfellby140kb/dto53.2mb/dinDecember,asrisingproductionintheNorthSea
onlypartiallyoffsettingasteepseasonaldeclineinbiofuelsproductionandlacklustreoutputfrom
the Former Soviet Union. On a quarterly basis, unrest in the Middle East and other unplanned
outagesmeant4Q11outputgrewby610kb/dfromthepriorquarter(butonly25kb/dcomparedto
lastyear)andshouldgrowfurtherby340kb/din1Q12to53.5mb/d.
OPEC crude oil supply rose by 240kb/d, to an average of 30.89mb/d in December. The rapid
recovery in supplies from Libya, and to a lesser extent increases from Saudi Arabia and the UAE,
combinedtopushyearendoutputtothehighestlevelinmorethanthreeyears.
AloomingescalationineconomicsanctionsimposedonIranbytheUSandproposedbytheEUhas
sparkedmarketconcernsinEuropeandAsiaoverpotentialcrudeavailability,aswellasraisingalarm
overthepossibilityofmilitaryactionintheGulf.
OPEC ministers agreed a higher collective production target of 30mb/d for 2012 at their
14DecembermeetinginVienna.Itisthefirstnewoutputagreementinthreeyearsandthefirstto
includeIraqinthegroupstargetsysteminmorethantwodecades.OPECsnewtargetisbroadlyin
linewithourownestimatesfortheunderlyingcallonOPECcrudeandstockchangeof30mb/dfor
2012.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
m b/d
62
m b/d
Year-on-Year Change
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11
OP EC Crude
OP EC NGLs
Non-OP EC
Total Supply
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply

m b/d
31.0
60
30.5
58
30.0
56
29.5
54
29.0
52
28.5
50
Jan 11
28.0
Jul 11
Jan 12
Non-OP EC
OP EC Crude - RS
Jul 12
OP EC NGLs
AllworldoilsupplyfiguresforDecemberdiscussedinthisreportareIEAestimates.EstimatesforOPEC
countries,Alaska,andRussiaaresupportedbypreliminaryDecembersupplydata.
Note:RandomeventspresentdownsiderisktothenonOPECproductionforecastcontainedinthisreport.These
events can include accidents, unplanned or unannounced maintenance, technical problems, labour strikes,
politicalunrest,guerrillaactivity,warsandweatherrelatedsupplylosses.Specificallowancehasbeenmadein
the forecast for scheduled maintenance in all regions and for typical seasonal supply outages (including
hurricanerelatedstoppages)inNorthAmerica.Inaddition,fromJuly2007,anationallyallocated(butnotfield
specific)reliabilityadjustmenthasalsobeenappliedforthenonOPECforecasttoreflectahistoricaltendency
for unexpected events to reduce actual supply compared with the initial forecast. This totals 200kb/d for
nonOPECasawhole,withdownwardadjustmentsfocusedintheOECD.
14
18J ANUARY 2012
S UPPLY
OPEC Crude Oil Supply

OPEC crude oil supply averaged 30.89mb/d in December, up by 240kb/d over November levels.
Increased supplies from Libya, and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia and the UAE, combined to push
yearend output to the highest level in more than three years. The higher output levels are behind a
decline in OPECs effective spare capacity, to 2.85mb/d from 3.18mb/d in November. Saudi Arabia
accountsfor75%ofeffectivesparecapacityat2.15mb/d.
PreliminarytankerdatasuggestOPECsupplyisoncoursetorisefurtherinJanuary.Iranisundersiege
fromnewUSsanctionsonthecountryscentralbank,whichareexpectedtocomeintoeffectoverthe
next several months, and the proposed EU embargo on all purchases of Iranian oil (see International
SanctionsTightenChokeholdOnIran).Asaresult,customershavebeenaggressivelyseekingalternative
supplies from other OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia. UKbased Oil Movements forecasts that
sailingsfromtheMiddleEastmayrise300kb/daboveDecemberlevels.
m b/d
33
OPEC Crude Oil Production
m b/d
32
32
Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude + Stock

Change
31
31
30
30
29
28
29
27
28
Jan
Mar
2008
May
2009
Jul
Sep
2 0 10
Nov
Jan
2 0 11
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009

o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)
26
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2 0 10
2 0 11
2 0 12
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009
o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)
OPECministersagreedahighercollectiveproductiontargetof30mb/dfor2012attheir14December
meetinginVienna.ItisthefirstnewoutputagreementinthreeyearsandthefirsttoincludeIraqinthe
groupstargetsysteminmorethantwodecades.InstarkcontrasttolastJunesdivisivegatheringthat
ended without a communiqu, the midDecember meeting produced a consensus agreement, albeit
somewhat vague and short on detail. No individual country quotas were allocated as part of the
agreement;insteadthe30mb/dwasreportedlyarrivedatbasedontheOPECSecretariatsanticipated
call on its crude for 2012. The communiqu left ample room for interpretation and suggested there
wouldbescopeforvoluntarydownwardproductionadjustmentsasnecessaryandsubjecttoprevailing
economicandoildemanduncertainty.OPECsetitsnextministerialmeetingfor14JuneinVienna.
OPECsnew30mb/dtargetisinlinewithourownestimatesfortheunderlyingcallonOPECcrudeand
stock change for 2012. Downward revisions in global oil demand in this months report see the 2012
callreducedbyanaverage200kb/d,to30mb/d.1Q12seethelargestrevisiontothecall,loweredby
400kb/dto29.8mb/d.
mb/d
OPEC Crude Production
The groups 30mb/d target also mirrors average 2011
33.0
output levels. OPEC 2011 production averaged
32.0
29.97mb/d, which is 500kb/d up on 2010 levels. War
tornLibyasawproductiondeclineanaverage1.09mb/d
31.0
to 460kb/d in 2011. Saudi Arabia posted the largest
30.0
increase at 950kb/d to 9.34mb/d, followed by Iraq,
rising by 310kb/d to 2.67mb/d. Fellow Gulf producers
29.0
alsopostedsubstantialincreasesin2011,withKuwaitup
28.0
by210kb/dto2.5mb/dandtheUAEupby190kb/dto
Jan
2008
18J ANUARY 2012
Mar
May
2009
Jul
Sep
2010
Nov
Jan
2011
15
S UPPLY
2.5mb/d. Nigeria also saw a rise in production, up by 100kb/d to 2.18mb/d. While the ceasefire
agreement enabled the countrys IOCs to carry out repairs and restart long shutin production, a fresh
waveofmilitantactivityinthelaterpartof2011reducedvolumes.
By contrast, yearonyear, Iranian production fell by 130kb/d to an average 3.58mb/d last year, its
lowest levels since 2002. Angola also posted a decline, down by 90kb/d to 1.64mb/d on average in
2011,duealmostentirelytochronictechnicalproblemsattheBPoperatedGreaterPlutoniocomplex.
DecemberSaudiArabiancrudeoiloutputwaspeggedat9.85mb/d,up100kb/dfromNovemberlevels.
Latesttankerdatasuggestproductionmaybeclosertothe10mb/dmarkinJanuary,withanincreasein
shipmentsexpected,especiallywestboundcargoes.
OPEC Crude Production
Spare Capacity
vs Dec 2011
Supply
2011 Annual
Average
Vol Chg
2011 vs
2010
1.30
0.01
1.28
0.02
1.75
1.90
0.15
1.64
(0.09)
0.48
0.51
0.03
0.50
0.03
3.45
3.51
0.06
3.58
(0.13)
Nov 2011
Supply
Algeria
1.29
1.29
1.29
Angola
1.72
1.69
Ecuador
0.50
0.50
Iran
3.53
3.55
Kuwait2
2.65
2.67
2.62
2.84
0.22
2.50
0.21
Libya
0.35
0.55
0.80
0.75
(0.05)
0.46
(1.09)
Nigeria3
2.02
2.10
2.06
2.48
0.42
2.18
0.10
Qatar
0.81
0.82
0.82
0.90
0.08
0.80
0.02
Saudi Arabia
9.45
9.75
9.85
12.00
2.15
9.34
0.95
UAE
2.51
2.52
2.58
2.74
0.16
2.50
0.19
Venezuela4
2.55
2.53
2.50
2.55
0.05
2.52
(0.01)
27.38
27.97
28.20
31.47
3.27
27.30
0.20
2.69
2.68
2.69
3.21
0.53
2.67
0.31
30.07
30.64
30.89
34.68
3.80
29.98
0.51
OPEC-11
Iraq
Total OPEC
Dec 2011
Supply
(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya

1
2
3
4
Sustainable
Production
Oct 2011
Supply
Capacity levels can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days.
Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
Nigeria's current capacity estimate excludes some 200 kb/d of shut-in capacity.
Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 430 kb/d in December.
Capacity
2.85)
Iraqi supply averaged 2.69mb/d in December, up 10kb/d from the previous month. November levels
werereviseddownby40kb/d,to2.68mb/dfrom2.72mb/d,onreduceddomesticuse.Crudeexports
averaged 2.15mb/d last month, up 10kb/d monthonmonth. Exports of Basrah crude from the
southern terminals rose by 25kb/d to 1.74mb/d. Exports of Kirkuk crude from the Turkish port of
CeyhanontheMediterraneanwereoffbyaround15kb/d,to410kb/d.
For 2011, Iraqi crude exports averaged 2.17mb/d, an increase of 275kb/d over 2010 levels, with
shipmentsfromthesouthernportsaccountingforalmost85%oftheincrease.Basrahexportsaveraged
1.71mb/d,uparound230kb/d,whileNorthernvolumesofKirkukroseby50kb/dto450kb/d.
Iraqicrudeexportgrowthin2012islikelytobeconstrainedbyanumberofissues,includingdelayswith
infrastructure projects. The Oil Ministry has forecast crude exports to reach 2.6mb/d in 2012 but
analystsprojectvolumestofallshortofthattarget.Theplannedexpansionofsouthernexportfacilities
ontheGulfisbehindschedule,andnowthefirstofthethreenewsinglepointmoorings(SPMs)isnot
expected to be operational by end March, compared with the original 1 January start date. Though
nameplate capacity for each SBM is 900kb/d, industry experts say operational capacity may only be
500kb/d.Thefullplancallsfortheinstallationofthree48inchlandpipelinesbetweentheproduction
hubs of Zubair and Rumaila to the Fao onshore terminal, the construction of storage tanks to raise
capacitybyaround16mbandnewpumping,powerandmeteringfacilities.Sofar,onlyonepipelineis
16
18J ANUARY 2012
S UPPLY
under construction, with completion also slated for the end of first quarter 2012. Three tanks at Fao
havebeencompleted,butworkonthecriticalgassupplypipelinehasnotbegun,andcontractsforthe
mainelectricalgeneratorshavebeenonlyjustawarded.Temporarygeneratorsandboosterpumpsmay
be installed, which would enable an increase in flow rates to offshore terminals by an estimated
250kb/dbymid2012.
Iranian supplies declined by 100kb/d to 3.45mb/d in December, with increasing volumes going into
floating storage. EA Gibson shipbrokers report Iranian storage increased by 4.3mb to 32.3mb at
endDecember.
Afterrisingforsixstraightmonths,Kuwaitioutputdeclinedby50kb/dto2.62mb/dinDecember.UAE
production,bycontrast,roseby60kb/dto2.58mb/dlastmonth.
Libya posted the single largest monthly increase, up 250kb/d to 800kb/d on average in December.
Total's 40kb/d Mabruk oil field was the latest to restart production. Officials reported production
breachedthe1mb/dmarkinDecemberbutoutputreportedlyhasbeenthrottledbacksoengineerscan
conducttestsonwellsandpipelines,wherenumerousleakshavebeenreported.
Angolan output in December was around 1.75mb/d, about 60kb/d more than November. The new
TotaloperatedPazflorfieldhasnowrampeduptocapacityofaround160kb/d.
Nigeriassupplyfell40kb/dto2.06mb/dinDecember.
Shell was forced to shut down the massive 200kb/d
offshore Bonga facility after a leak during a tanker
loading operation on 20 December. Production was
restartedon5January.Shell'soffshore115kb/dEAoil
field was also undergoing maintenance work through
much of December, with production restarted on
27December. In early January, Shell declared force
majeure on its benchmark Bonny Light crude exports
following a leak caused by theft incidents on the
NembeCreektrunklineintheNigerDelta.
mb/d
Nigerian Crude Production
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
Jan
Mar
May
2008
Jul
2009
Sep
Nov
2010
Jan
2011
A nationwide strike against the ending of fuel subsidies that more than doubled gasoline prices
threatenedtoshutdownthecountry'soilproductionandexportsthismonthbutthelabouractionwas
avertedfollowinganeleventhhouragreement(seeDemand,GoodluckRemovingSubsidies).
Venezuelan output was down 30kb/d to 2.5mb/d in December, largely due to maintenance at the
Petroanzoateguiheavycrudeupgrader.TotalOrinocooutputwasestimatedat450kb/dinDecember.
OPEC NGLs
OPECNGLsareoncoursetoaverage6.2mb/din1Q12,
up 200kb/d from 4Q11. Qatar is slated to provide
around40%oftheincrease,withincrementalsupplies
expected from LNG Trains 6 & 7 and Pearl NGLs.
Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Nigeria and Angola will see
smallerincreases.Forfullyear2011OPECNGLsroseby
400kb/d to an average 5.8mb/d. The UAE accounted
for250kb/doftheincreasewiththerampupinoutput
from the Habshan condensate and NGL complex
providing the bulk of the increase. OPEC NGLs are
forecast in 2012 to increase by a further 600kb/d
to6.4mb/d.
18J ANUARY 2012
mb/d
7.0
OPEC NGL Production

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1Q09
1Q10
Production
1Q11
1Q12
AnnualGrowth(RHS)
17
S UPPLY
International Sanctions Tighten Chokehold On Iran

AloomingsharpescalationineconomicsanctionsimposedonIranbytheUSandEUhassparkedconcernsin
Europe and Asia over potential crude availability, as well as raising alarms over the possibility of military
actionintheMiddleEastGulf.AnewlawwassignedbyPresidentObamaon31December2011imposing
sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank after a certain time, the main
clearinghousethroughwhichIrandealswithtradingpartnersaroundtheworld.MeanwhiletheEUismoving
atabriskpacetofinaliseabanonoilimportsfromIranbymemberstates.Thoughneithermeasureislikely
to take meaningful physical effect until midyear, they have already set in motion a flurry of diplomatic
activity,withleadersfromJapan,China,SouthKorea,amongothers,visitingtopMiddleEastproducersin
recentweekstosecureassurancesthatsupplywillbeforthcomingtoreplaceIranianbarrels.
ThenewUSsanctionswillforceforeignbanksandotherinstitutionstoterminatefinancialtransactionswith
IraninordertoavoidbeingprecludedfromdealingsontheUSfinancialmarkets.Themeasurestargetboth
privateandgovernmentcontrolledbanks,includingcentralbanks.Thelaw,however,enablesagreatdealof
latitudefortheUSAdministrationonhowtoimplementitand,crucially,allowswaiversforcountriesthat
demonstrate they are taking measures to significantly reduce their imports of Iranian crude. The US
PresidentmayalsograntwaiversdeemedtobeintheUSnationalsecurityinterestorotherwisenecessary
forenergymarketstability.Thetimeframeforimplementingthelawviavisthepetroleumsectoris:
After 60 days (end February), and every 60 days thereafter, the US Energy Information Administration
(EIA)hastosubmitareportontheavailabilityandpriceofoilfromsuppliersotherthanIran.
After90days(endMarch),after180daysthereafter,theUSPresidenthastomakeafinding(basedon
the EIA report) whether there is sufficient oil supply from countries excluding Iran in order to permit
othercountriestosignificantlyreducetheirpurchasesfromIran.
After180days(endJune):iftheUSPresidentestablishedthatthereissufficientoilavailableoutsideIran,
the sanctions shall be applied to financial institutions; the sanctions shall not apply to financial
institutionsofcountriesthathavesignificantlyreducedtheiroilpurchasefromIran.
AtanytimethePresidentmaywaivethesanctionsaltogetherforupto120days,ifthatisconsideredto
beinthenationalsecurityinterestoftheUS.
Inaddition,thePresidenthastoundertakediplomaticinitiativeswithothercountriesto:
o
Limit Irans imports of nonluxury consumer goods and exclude purchases destined for
military/nuclearpurposesand;
Encourageotherproducercountriestoproducemoreoil.
In Brussels, the EU has agreed in principle to impose an oil import ban on Iranian oil but details such as
timing and implementation are still being discussed. A decision could be taken at the next EU Foreign
Ministers meeting on 23 January. If the ministers agree on the new regulation (which would be directly
applicable,withnotranspositionintonationallawneeded),itwouldtakeabouttwoweekstoformalise.One
criticalissueforthemarketisthedateforimplementationoftheimportban,withcurrentproposalsranging
anywherefromthreemonthstoayear.However,atargetofsixmonthsisgainingtraction,sinceitwould
dovetail with the US law. This would tend to suggest a measure that would have a material impact on
physicalsuppliesfromIranfrommidsummeronwards,similarintimingtotheUSmeasures.Italyhasasked
for, and is considered likely to receive, a full exemption for the oil that ENI receives as payment of their
shareinupstreamproductioninIran(some10kb/d).Greece,ItalyandSpainmayreceiveanexemptionfora
limitedamountoftimeaftertheimplementation,tobeabletofindalternativesupplies.
Iran meanwhile has upped its brinkmanship with the west as well as with its fellow OPEC members and
regionalneighbours.InrecentweeksithasconductedmajornavalexercisesclosetotheStraitofHormuz,
andclaimedtohavesuccessfullytestedantishipmissilesandanewmidrangemissile,comparabletothe
cruisemissilesofWesternforces.IranclaimedalsotohavepracticedforaneffectiveclosureoftheStraitof
Hormuz, although the waterway was not actually blocked at any moment. Secondly, Iran announced it
would close the Strait of Hormuz, if confronted with an embargo on its oil exports. This would not only
physically prevent significant additional exports by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, but could
18
18J ANUARY 2012
S UPPLY
International Sanctions Tighten Chokehold On Iran
(continued)
potentiallyhinderthemajorityofoilexportsfromtheGulf,albeitforashortperiod.TheStraitofHormuzin
recentmonthshasseenthetransitofsome17mb/dofcrudeoilandrefinedproduct.Mostmilitaryanalysts
believe any closure would be short term, especially as the
US and UK said they would never allow the Strait to be
Destination of Exports Passing Through the
closed given its vital importance to global energy markets.
Straits of Hormuz - January to October 2011
In the event of temporary or partial closure of the Strait,
SaudiArabiahasthecapacitytoshipafurther2.5mb/dvia OECDEurope
0.83 MiddleEast
0.05
Crude
0.70 Crude
0.00
theEastWestpipelinetotheRedSea.
Thelongawaited1.5mb/dAbuDhabipipeline,whichoffers
a further bypass route of the Strait of Hormuz, will be
operational by June. The pipeline will move crude to the
portofFujairah,ontheUAEseasterncoast,facingtheGulf
ofOman.
BymidJanuary,IranwaswarningitsfellowOPECmembers,
threatening serious consequences if other producers
steppedintoreplacebannedIraniancrudesupplies.Iranian
OPECGovernorMohammadAliKhatibisaid16Januarythat
there would be serious consequences for regional
producers,alludingtoblockageoftheStraits.Muchtothe
angerofIran,highleveldiplomaticeffortsareunderwayto
secure alternative supplies, with the leaders from Irans
biggestcustomersChina,JapanandSouthKoreavisiting
Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers to receive
assurancesthatalternativesupplieswillbeavailable.
Products
OECDNAmerica
Crude
Products
OECDPacific
Crude
Products
Africa
Crude
Products
China
Crude
Products
LatinAmerica
Crude
Products
GrandTotal
TotalCrude
TotalProducts
0.14
1.74
1.74
0.00
5.42
5.02
0.40
0.32
0.27
0.05
2.14
2.13
0.01
0.14
0.12
0.02
16.85
15.54
1.31
Products
OtherAsia
Crude
Products
OtherEurope
Crude
Products
SUMEDPipeline
Crude
Products
Unknown
Crude
Products
SArabia(RedSea)
Crude
Products
0.05
5.45
4.83
0.62
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.63
0.63
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.10
0.09
0.02
Source:LloydsMarineIntelligence
IEAimportdataforJanuaryOctober2011andpreliminaryestimatesforotherdestinationssuggestIranian
crudeexportsaveraging2.5mb/d(includingover200kb/dofcondensates).Aroundonethirdofthesewere
destined for IEA Europeandestinations, with Italy, Turkey, Spain and Greece accounting for about 80% of
these sales into Europe. Both Turkey and Greece have so far met around 30% of their oil demand with
Iranianimports.ThesedataimplyEUimportsofaround600kb/d.
JapanandSouthKoreaimportedacollective550kb/dofIraniancrude,withdeliveriesintoChinaandIndia
estimatedat550kb/dand310kb/drespectively(includingatleast90kb/dofcondensateintoChina).South
Africapurchasedaround80kb/d.Alltold,eastboundexportsaccountedfor65%oftotalIranianexports.
JapanhasnotyetcommittedtotheUSAdministrationtoreduceimportsofIraniancrude,withthecountrys
foreignministervisitingSaudiArabiaandtheUAEtogainassurancesthatsubstitutecrudeforIranianbarrels
willbeavailable.Chinahasnotimplementedanysanctions,withIranitssecondlargestsupplierafterSaudi
Arabia.ChinesePremierWenJiabao,thoughopenlyopposedtosanctionsonIran,recentlytravelledtoSaudi
Arabia,theUAEandQatarinabidtosecureassurancesovercrudesupplies.Separately,China,whose2011
purchases from Iran were up by around 20% from 2010, this month cut in half its Iranian term contract
volumesoverapricingdispute.
For European refiners the new EU sanctions will force them into the difficult task of finding alternative
comparable crudes, especially for Irans heavy crudes. Irans two main export grades, produced from
onshore fields, are Iranian Heavy (29.5 API and 1.99% sulphur) and Iranian Light (33.4API and 1.36%
sulphur).Historically,IranianHeavyhasaccountedforaroundonehalfofIranianexports,andIranianLight
for a further one third. In 2011, IEA European importers purchases have comprised around 30% Iranian
Lightand70%IranianHeavyorsourer(highersulphur)grades.For2011salessofarintotheIEAPacific,less
than10%comprisedIranianLight,theremaindercomprisingIranianHeavyandsourergrades.Boththemain
exportgradesareshippedfromtheterminalofKhargIsland,towardsthenorthernendoftheMiddleEast
Gulf.Khargaccountsforaround85%oftotalIranianexports,withshipmentsofIranLightandIranHeavy
andoffshoreForoozan.OtheroffshorecrudessuchasSirri,LavanandSorooshareexportedfromSirriand
LavanIslandsandfromfloatingfacilities,respectively.CrudeisalsomadeavailableintotheMediterranean
freeonboardfromSidiKeririnEgypt,thenorthernendoftheSumedpipeline.
18J ANUARY 2012
19
S UPPLY
Non-OPEC Overview
NonOPECoilproductionisestimatedtohavefallenby0.1mb/dto53.2mb/dinDecember,largelydue
to seasonally lower biofuels output and reduced production in Latin America and the Former Soviet
Union. Preliminary data show North Sea volumes increased by 140kb/d from November levels. Non
OPEC supply in 4Q11 is estimated to have risen by 0.6mb/d from the third quarter, but grew by only
25kb/dyearonyear.
Themajorsourceofa110kb/ddownwardrevisiontoourestimatefor4Q11nonOPECsupplyiscentredin
Chinaandisoffsetby50kb/dupwardsrevisionsbasedonnewhistoricaldatainMalaysiaandtheUSlight
tight oil production totalled 740kb/d in 4Q11, and exponential growth rates continue to exceed initial
expectations,especiallyinTexasandinNorthDakota.Alltold,nonOPECsupplygrewonanannualbasisby
only50kb/din2011,thethirdlowestperformanceinthelastdecade.
mb/d
1.4
mb/d
1.6
Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y chg
1.2
Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.2
-0.4
0.0
-0.8
-0.2
1Q11
-0.4
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
3Q11
1Q12
OECD
Non-OECD Asia
Other
3Q12
FSU
LAM
Total
Overall,wehavenotalteredouroutlookfornonOPECoilproductionin2012,whenproductionisexpected
toreboundbyaround1.0mb/dtoaverage53.7mb/d.Sincelastmonth,morepessimisticexpectationsfor
the return to production of the PengLai 193 field in China (110kb/d), continued violence in Yemen
(10kb/d), and weatherrelated shutins and project delays in Australia (20kb/d) reduced nonOPEC
supplygrowth.Thesedownwardrevisionsareequallyoffsetbyearlierthanexpectedfieldstartupsinthe
GulfofMexicoandhigherproductionestimatesforlighttightoilinTexas.
OECD
North America
USDecember,Alaskaactual,otherstatesestimated:GulfofMexicoandAlaskanproduction,aswell
as light tight oil output from Texas, and North Dakota, led to an increase in total US liquids output of
around 60kb/d to 8.3mb/d in November. North Dakotas crude and condensate production reached
almost 510kb/d in December according to preliminary state estimates, only 50kb/d shy of Alaskan
productionin2011.Afteralighthurricaneseason,GulfofMexicoproductionshouldstayat2011levels
withadditionsfromthePetrobrasledCascadeandChinookdevelopmentin1Q12(+40kb/donaverage
for 2012), Anadarkos Caesar and Tonga (+20kb/d), and LLOGs Mandy and Who Dat (+30kb/d)
offsettingdecliningproductionelsewhere.WehaveincreasedourexpectationsforTexasoilproduction
by25kb/dto1.5mb/din2012inthisoutlooktoreflectahigherproductionbaselinefromthesecond
halfof2011.NGLoutputin4Q11alsoexceededourexpectationsby20kb/d.WeestimatethattheUS
willproduce8.2mb/din2012,whichisaround170kb/dhigherthanpreliminary2011outputestimates
andaround30kb/dhigherthanlastmonthsforecast.
CanadaOctoberactual:RisingoutputfromtheoilsandsbroughtCanadianoilproductionto3.5mb/d
in October, a slight increase from the prior month. Planned maintenance kept the Terra Nova field
producing 10kb/d lower than 1H11 average levels at 30kb/d, while maintenance and a fire at the
20
18J ANUARY 2012
S UPPLY
Syncrudeprojectkeptproductionaround60kb/dlowerthanaverageat250kb/din4Q11.Asdiscussed
lastmonth,theoperatorhaswarnedthatitmaybringtheunitdownforaturnaroundiffullproduction
ratescannotbeachieved.TheCanadianoutlookfor2012hasbeenincreasedby20kb/dfromlastmonth
totakeintoaccountadditionaloutputfromCNRLsPrimroseproject.Insum,totalliquidsoutputshould
growbyaround180kb/dtoaverage3.6mb/d.
mb/d
4.0
mb/d
0.8
Canada Oil Supply
US Total Oil Supply - Yearly Change
0.6
3.8
0.4
3.6
0.2
3.4
0.0
3.2
-0.2
3.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Nov
-0.4
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
1Q11
3Q11
Alaska
Other Lower-48
Other
1Q12
3Q12
California
Gulf of Mexico
Total
Texas
NGLs
North Sea
ProductionfromtheNorthSeareturnedtoaround3.2mb/din4Q11,240kb/dlowerthanlastyears
levels.Weestimatethatonamonthlybasis,NorthSeaproductionreboundedby140kb/dinDecember
to 3.3mb/d, mainly due to rising production from the UKs Buzzard field. Pending further unplanned
outages,itshouldremainattheselevelsthrough1Q12.Overall,reboundingproductionfromunplanned
outagesshouldkeepNorthSeaproductionin2012closetothe2011levelsof3.1mb/d.
UKSeptember actual, October preliminary: UK offshore crude production increased from a record
lowof0.7mb/dinAugusttoaround1.0mb/dinOctoberwiththecompletionofsummermaintenance
andotherunplannedoutages.Withthebenefitoffieldleveldetailforthemajorityofthemaintenance
season,itisworthobservingthatoilproductionfellby225kb/din3Q11from2Q11andaround80kb/d
lessthanduringthe2010maintenanceseason.Offshoreloadedproductionfellby35kb/dduringthis
period,BrentandNiniansystemsoutputfellby10kb/deach,Tealareaproductionfellby25kb/d,and
Forties production fell by almost 50kb/d. Notably, production problems at the Buzzard field did not
causeanyofthe3Q11declineintheFortiesarea,butwehavetemperedourexpectationsforoutput
from the field in 4Q11, which should average around 160kb/d, or 40kb/d less than capacity. Other
revisions for 2012 this month stem from oneyear delays at the Alder and Athena field. Also, the
2530kb/dGryphonFPSO,whichcameloosefromitsmooringsinFebruary2011afterastorm,willnot
bereturningtoproductionuntil3Q12,oronequarterlaterthanplanned,accordingtoMaerskOil.The
FPSO aggregates production from the Tullich, Maclure, and Gryphon fields. Downwards revisions are
offset by slightly higher 4Q11 baseline production in the Forties and Ninian systems, leaving 2012
productionestimatesof1.2mb/d(+40kb/dfrom2011),unchangedfromlastmonth.
mb/d
mb/d
1.9
Norway Oil Supply
2.8
UK Oil Supply
1.7
2.6
1.5
2.4
1.3
2.2
2.0
1.1
1.8
0.9
0.7
1.6
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
18J ANUARY 2012
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
21
S UPPLY
NorwayOctoberactual,Novemberpreliminary:Norwegianproductionalsoincreasedby100kb/din
Octoberto2.0mb/dandisexpectedtoaverage2.1mb/din4Q11.TheGranefieldremainedataround
100kb/d in October, in line with expectations, and around 50kb/d below normal levels due to post
maintenance problems. Preliminary data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate suggest crude,
condensateandNGLoutputincreasedbyaround30kb/dinNovember,meaningthat4Q11production
isontracktoaveragearound2.1mb/d.
OECD Asia
AustraliaSeptember actual, October preliminary: Australian oil production increased by around
10kb/dinOctoberto430kb/d.WeexpectthatproductioninJanuarywillfallbyaround60kb/dfrom
Decembers estimate to 490kb/d on the impact of Cyclone Heidi that reduced production at the
Waenea/Cossack,Stybarrow,andVincentfieldsaswellasattheMutineer/ExeterFPSO.2012production
estimateshavebeenreducedby20kb/donthisweatherrelatedimpact,andduetocontinueddelaysat
thePTTEPledSkuaandMontaraproject,thatwasexpectedtoadd35kb/din2012.Weestimatethat
theprojecthasbeendelayedsixtimessinceOctober2008.However,otherfieldadditionsshouldraise
totalAustralianoiloutputby130kb/dyoyto570kb/din2012.
Non-OECD
Latin America
BrazilNovemberactual:Braziliancrudeandcondensateproductionreachedanewrecordof2.2mb/d
inNovember2011,despiteleaksattheFradefieldandtheMarlimSulP40platform.Eventhoughnews
articlesreportedthatoutputhadbeenreducedby75%attheP40platformfromagasreinjectionline,
November output from the field remained near average levels of 260kb/d, although we now forecast
thatDecembersoutputwillbearound100kb/dlowerthanthepriormonth.Notably,inJanuarythepre
saltGuarafieldintheSantosbasinwasdeclaredcommercialafterafivemonthextendedwelltestand
willofficiallybegintheproductionphaseunderthenameSapinhoa.Basedonfieldleveldata,production
intheSantosbasinhasreachedaround120kb/dinNovember,withtheadditionofoilfromtheCarioca
Nordeste extended well test and a new well at the Lula field. OGXs Waimea project received a green
lightforproductiontobegininlateJanuary,yetweremaincautiousabouttheultimateproductionrates
for2012.WeexpectfurtherincreasesfromtheSantosbasintosustainBraziliancrudeandcondensate
productionatlevelsof2.2mb/din2012,anincreaseof140kb/dover2011levels.
mb/d
0.80
mb/d
2.4
Argentina Oil Supply
Brazil Crude + Condensate Supply
2.3
0.75
2.2
2.1
0.70
2.0
0.65
1.9
0.60
1.8
1.7
0.55
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
ArgentinaNovember actual: Argentina produced around 580kb/d of crude oil in November, slightly
higherthanthe3Q11average.Earlier,strikeshaddentedoutputby70100kb/dinMarchJuneandby
90kb/d in December 2010. At that time an oil worker strike and teacher protests in the Santa Cruz
provincekeptproductionfromattainingnormallevels.Recently,newsreportssurfacedthatstrikeswere
again reducing output at Pan America Energys 90kb/d Cerro Dragon oil and natural gas field in the
22
18J ANUARY 2012
S UPPLY
Chubut province. Workers blocked access to the field due to dissatisfaction with their salaries and
becausetheyareseekingcompensationpayfordayslostduringapreviousstrike.Outputfromthefield
represents80%ofthecompanysoutput,andsharesareheld60/40byBPandBridasrespectively.We
havereducedouroutlookfor2012by20kb/d(and60kb/din1Q12)basedonthelikelycontinuationof
these labour issues in the neighbouring Santa Cruz and Chubut provinces. These contingencies will
restrainproductioncloseto2011levelsof660kb/din2012.
Asia
ChinaNovemberactual:Chineseproductionisestimatedtohavefallento4.1mb/din4Q11,around
160kb/d lower than the same quarter in 2010 and at the same rate as 3Q11. Novembers production
increased to 4.0mb/d. Offshore production averaged over 100kb/d lower than yearago levels in
OctoberandNovember,wellbelowourexpectationsfromlastmonth,andonshoreproductionalsofell.
Forexample,outputstayedat380kb/dinOctoberandNovemberor30kb/dbelowAugustlevelsatthe
Changqingcomplex,and20kb/dbelowAugustattheJilinfield.Theunexpectedonshoredeclineandthe
morewidespreadthananticipatedoffshoreproductiondeclinefromleaksatotherplatformsresultedin
a 160kb/d downward revision to 4Q11 production. Also, we now do not expect production from the
150kb/doffshorePengLaifieldtoreturnuntillatein2012amidgovernmentcautionoverrestart.The
revised outlook also takes into account the Yangkuang groups new 20kb/d CTL plant in the Shaanxi
province.ThefirstphaseoftheCTLprojectwillproduce76%diesel,20%naptha,and3%LPG.ThePeng
LaiandCTLadjustmentsmeanthattotalChineseoilproductionshouldstillgrowby1.7%to4.2mb/din
2012,butthegrowthrateisaround110kb/dlessthanlastmonthsestimate.
mb/d
4.3
mb/d
3.8
China Oil Supply
4.2
Other Non-OECD Asia Oil Supply
3.7
4.1
3.6
4.0
3.5
3.9
3.4
3.8
3.7
3.3
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
OtherNonOECDAsia:ProductioninIndiafellbelow880kb/dinOctober,alevelnotseensinceAugust
2010,duetopooroutputperformancefromtheBombayHighoffshoreplatform.But,productionfrom
the field rebounded in November, bringing Indian oil production back above 900kb/d. Production in
ThailandfellvictimtothewidespreadfloodinginOctober,especiallyattheSirikitoilfieldneartheSirikit
hydroelectric dam, where production decreased to 15kb/d from 25kb/d. Malaysian oil production
increased to 660kb/d in November due to continued workover drilling at the Kikeh project, where
operator Murphy Oil has brought three new wells online. The operator expects gross output to reach
100kb/dfrom3Q11levelsofaround60kb/d.Recent4Q11datahaveexceededexpectationsbyaround
20kb/d,whichwehavecarriedthroughtheoutlookfor2012.Wecurrentlyexpectoverallproductionto
decline in Malaysia by 20kb/d to 630kb/d in 2012, but further upward revisions based on Kikehs
performancemayberequiredinupcomingmonths.
Middle East
UnrestintheMiddleEastcontinuedtoreducenonOPECsupplyinDecember2011andinJanuary2012.
In Yemen, an explosion at a Hunt Oil subsidiarys well reportedly shut in around 10kb/d. The field is
located in the Jannah Block, where the company produced around 42kb/d in 2010 according to the
18J ANUARY 2012
23
S UPPLY
Yemenigovernment.AnumberofattackshaveoccurredinYemeninthelastseveralmonths,reducing
outputtoaround150kb/din4Q11.NewsreportsindicatedthismonththatOMVspipelinefromBlock
S2havealsobeenattacked13timessinceOctober.The mb/d Non-OPEC Middle East Oil Supply
400kb/dpipelinefromtheBlock18Maribfieldstothe 1.8
Ras Isa port is still offline, meaning Yemens Aden
1.7
refineryhasbeenshutinduetolackoffeedstock. We
expect violence will continue to impact production in 1.6
Yemen,keepingoutputin2012ataround150kb/d.
1.5
Syria is also suffering from attacks on its energy

1.4
infrastructure that have led to power and petroleum
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Mar
product shortages. Violence between government
2008
2009
2010
2011
military forces and the opposition has escalated in the
2011 forecast
2012 forecast
last month and shows no signs of abating. To add fuel
tothefire,reportsindicatepetroleumproductpriceshavedoubled,andcookinggaspriceshavetripled.
TheheadoftheArabLeague,whichsentamissiontoSyriainJanuary,recentlyindicatedhefearedacivil
warwasinthemaking,whichcouldalsohavewiderimplicationsforneighbouringcountries.Numerous
foreign companies have suspended operations, and skilled personnel are bound to be departing the
country. Economic sanctions and these factors mean that production should average only 270kb/d in
2012,downfrom330kb/din2011.
Former Soviet Union

RussiaDecemberactual:DataforDecembershowproductionfellslightlyfrom10.0to9.9mb/d,with
notable10kb/dmonthlydeclinesfromTNKBPsSamotloroilfieldandfromLUKoilandConocoPhillips
YuzhnoyeKhylchuyufield.WiththebenefitofafullyearofMinistryofEnergydata,itisusefultotake
stockofmajorRussiancompaniesperformanceoverthelastyearinthetablebelow.In2011,oiloutput
hitanewpostSovietrecordandincreasedinthesecondhalfoftheyear.AllcompaniesexceptforLUKoil
exceededtheirinitialguidanceonbrownfieldandgreenfieldproduction.Overallcrudeandcondensate
output rose by 1.2% in 2011 led by Surgutneftegaz, other private companies, and Rosneft, offset by a
5.3% decline from LUKoil. In 2012, crude and condensate output in Russia will receive strong support
from associated natural gas liquids production from Gazprom and Novatek. Gazproms liquids output
reached over 300kb/d in 2011, or an increase of 8% yoy, and we expect this growth to continue in
2012 with added condensates from the Zapolyarnoye gas field and the start of production from the
offshorePrirazlomnoyefield.IncreasingproductioninEastSiberiafromSurgutneftegazsTalakangroup
of fields and at Rosnefts Vankor oil field will offset mature field declines at these companies, raising
Russianoilproductionby1.4%to10.7mb/din2012.
Russian Oil Output by Company

Rosneft
24
2010
2011
y-o-y
2012E
y-o-y
2.46
2.51
1.8%
2.61
3.9%
LUKOil
1.81
1.71
-5.3%
1.66
-3.1%
TNK-BP
1.45
1.46
0.9%
1.45
-0.5%
Surgutneftegaz
1.20
1.22
2.1%
1.24
1.4%
Other Private Companies
0.81
0.89
9.4%
0.93
3.9%
Gazprom Neft
0.60
0.61
1.1%
0.64
5.7%
Tatneft
0.52
0.53
0.3%
0.52
-1.1%
-2.8%
Slavneft
0.37
0.36
-2.1%
0.35
Gazprom (NGLs)
0.31
0.34
8.1%
0.36
6.0%
JVs and PSAs
0.30
0.31
4.6%
0.32
3.9%
Bashneft
Total Russian Oil
0.28
10.45
0.30
10.58
6.8%
1.2%
0.30
10.72
-0.1%
1.4%
18J ANUARY 2012
S UPPLY
Kazakhstan Government Reacts Swiftly to Recent Labour Unrest

InboththesummerandDecember2011,oilworkersstrikesatnationaloilcompanyKazmunaigas(KMG)
facilities halted operations at the Uzen field in Zhanaozen near the Caspian Sea. In December 2011, over
15people were killed in clashes between police and protesters. With proven oil reserves of 30 billion
barrels, Kazakhstan has attracted over $100 billion in foreign investment since the discovery of the giant
Tengiz oil deposit in the 1980s and the Kashagan field in the 1990s. Although the potential for a serious
disruption from Kazakhstan is relatively small, unrest near the Caspian producing areas might set a
precedentforfuturestrikemovements.Kazakhstansleadershipwilllikelycontinuetocontaintheunrestat
thecostofeconomicexpediency.TheunrestcompromisesKMGsroleinthethreemajorconsortiabecause
it must now employ the fired workers, not to mention the additional threat the unrest poses to KMGs
legacy production output. In addition to threatening domestic investment, strikes and labour issues will
complicateandcontinuetoslowthepaceofbillionsofdollarsofexistingandplannedforeigninvestments
thatshouldmakeKazakhstanakeypotentialsourceofnonOPECsupply.
ViolenceatZhanaozenexposesKazakhstanilabourtensions.Thissummer,aneightmonthlongstrikebegan
whenworkersdemandedhigherwagesandastrongerunion.KMGsexportsplummetedby37%in3Q11due
tothestrike,butoutputwasnormalisedafterAugust.Despitenormalisation,nearly2000workerswerefired,
plantingtheseedsforfurtherunrest.TheworkerscontinuedtooccupyZhanaozensmainsquare,andviolence
erupted during Independence Day commemorations. Local/foreign wage discrepancy and labour union
restrictions contributed to the Mangistau unrest and other instances of violence over the last several years.
But, the government and especially foreign operators have moved quickly to contain these problems to
prevent them from spiralling out of control. To insure against further problems, President Nursultan
Nazarbayev had the head of KMG replaced with a veteran deputy energy minister and Mangistau native
LyazzatKiinov,andheputtheoldKMGheadinKiinovsoldposition.PresidentNazarbayevalsoremovedTimur
Kulibayev,hissoninlawandaveryinfluentialenergyplayer,fromhispositionattheheadofSamrukKazyna,
thesovereignwealthfundandgovernmentholdingcompany.NowthattheunemployedKMGworkerswillbe
given temporary jobs in newly created KMG subsidiaries, it is less likely that the unrest will continue there.
President Nazarbayev also reinstated the regions right to vote in parliamentary elections after a state of
emergency had been imposed. Although difficult to verify, foreign operators may also have increased the
amounttheyarespendingonlocalworkersandonlocalsustainabilityprojects.
DespitetheimmediatethreattooutputfromKMGsMangistaufields,KMGalsoholdssharesinallmajor
additionstoKazakhstanioilproduction.KMGswaxyandsaltyUzenfield,situatedintheMangistauregion
close to the Caspian Sea, once
produced more than 300kb/d in the
mid1970s, but declined to around
110kb/d in 1H10. Around 50% of
KMGs Mangistau region oil flows via
theAtryrauSamarapipelinetoRussia,
30%goesviatheTengizNovorossiysk
line to the Black Sea, and the
remainder is used domestically. With
theagreementlastmonthforKMGto
take a 10percent share in the
280kb/d Karachaganak gas and gas
condensatefield,KMGrepresentsthe
Kazakh states stake in the countrys
majorfields.However,KMGsworkers
willplayakeyroleinnewproductionadditionsinKazakhstan,andlocalcontentrestrictionswillmakeproject
executionandnegotiationsmorecomplicatedforforeigninvestors.
ComplexgeologyandrisingcapitalcostshavehinderedKazakhstansneartermcontributiontononOPEC
supply. Kazakhstan produced around 1.6mb/d in 2011, and is forecast to reach 1.8mb/d by 2016 and
4mb/d by 2035. With government approval, around 200kb/d of new production will be added to
TengizChevroils current 520kb/d output but not until after 2016. With the inclusion of KMG as a 10%
shareholder and the settlement of other disputes, Karachaganak (KPO B.V.) shareholders will begin to
reconsider the sanctioning of additional phases of the gas and gas condensate project that would add
around80kb/dtoproduction.Also,ConocoPhilipsandUAEbasedMubadalahavebegunexploratorydrilling
18J ANUARY 2012
25
S UPPLY
Kazakhstan Government Reacts Swiftly to Recent Labour Unrest
(continued)
inthehighlyprospectiveoffshoreNursultanblock.Lastbutnotleast,Phase1oftheoftdelayedKashagan
projectshouldcomeonlinebytheendof2013,addingasmuchas370kb/dtothecountrysoutput.
In sum, although labour unrest could flare up in upcoming months, it is unlikely to spread to the Atryau
region where foreign operators have ensured local workers are satisfied. President Nazarbayev will
inevitably ensure that further unrest is contained so that it does not damage the countrys investment
standingorfurtherrattleoilmarkets.ThiscomesatacosttoKMGandtoforeigncompaniesoperatingin
Kazakhstan.ThecreationofnewKMGsubsidiariesinevitablyraisesthecostofproductionandcouldhinder
KMGsabilitytofulfilitsshareholderobligations.
FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products
2009
2010
4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Latest month vs.

Oct 11 Nov 10
Crude
Black Sea
2.28
2.10
2.02
2.06
1.87
1.87
1.97
1.85
2.05
0.20
Baltic
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.48
1.57
1.37
1.45
1.52
1.68
0.15
0.15
0.20
Arctic/FarEast
0.46
0.74
0.78
0.70
0.69
0.65
0.65
0.72
0.60
-0.12
-0.18
BTC
0.80
0.77
0.80
0.72
0.76
0.69
0.69
0.68
0.61
-0.06
-0.15
Crude Seaborne
5.15
5.22
5.19
4.96
4.89
4.58
4.76
4.77
4.94
0.17
0.02
Druzhba Pipeline
1.11
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.18
1.22
1.20
1.24
0.04
0.08
Other Routes
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.53
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.48
0.49
0.01
0.02
Total Crude Exports

Of Which: Transneft1
6.66
6.76
6.76
6.63
6.55
6.30
6.51
6.45
6.68
0.22
0.12
3.93
4.00
4.02
4.15
4.16
4.09
4.22
4.22
4.48
0.26
0.59
Products
Fuel oil2
1.41
1.54
1.51
1.43
1.82
1.59
1.54
1.45
1.50
0.05
0.04
Gasoil
0.95
0.88
0.81
0.90
0.79
0.72
0.67
0.70
0.69
0.00
-0.09
Other Products
0.53
0.43
0.37
0.48
0.53
0.36
0.32
0.36
0.27
-0.08
-0.12
Total Product
2.89
2.85
2.69
2.81
3.14
2.66
2.53
2.51
2.47
-0.03
-0.18
Total Exports
9.54
9.61
9.45
9.44
9.68
8.96
9.04
8.96
9.15
0.19
-0.06
Imports
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.05
0.09
0.04
0.00
Net Exports
9.49
9.55
9.37
9.39
9.62
8.88
8.95
8.91
9.06
0.15
-0.06
Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates

1
Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.

Includes Vacuum Gas Oil
FSUnetoilexportsincreasedby150kb/dto9.1mb/dinNovember,thefirsttimesinceJunethatnetexports
haveexceeded9mb/d.TherisewaspropelledbyincreasingTransneftcrudeshipmentswhichrosestrongly
by260kb/donthemonthandoffsetfallingvolumesofBTCblendandnonTransneftcargoesshippedviathe
ArcticportofVarandey.BlackSeacargoesroseby200kb/d,andPrimorskexportsreboundedby200kb/dto
1.5mb/dupontheconclusionofmaintenanceontheBalticPipelineSystem.IntheEast,deliveriesofESPO
blend shipped through Kozmino remained below 300kb/d at 270kb/d for a second consecutive month,
whichwastheirlowestlevelsinceFebruary2010.ItislikelythatnewlyrestartedRussiancrudeexportsviathe
KazakhstanChinapipelineweredivertedfromESPOexports.ExportsofproductsfromFSUcountriesfellfor
theseventhconsecutivemonth,contractingby30kb/dto2.5mb/d.Totalexportsarenow180kb/dbelowa
yearago,withOtherProducts(120kb/dyoy)(includinggasolineandnaphtha)leadingtheyearlyfalldue
totheintroductionofthe90%lightproductexportduty.
ThestartupofthemuchheraldedBPS2pipelineanditsoutletofUstLugaontheGulfofFinlandhasbeen
delayed to 1Q12 from November 2011. The first crude cargo was initially held over until December, but
reports suggest that the terminal will now not commence operations until later than planned due to
subsidenceatanumberoftankerberths.However,eventhe1Q12assessmentlookstobeoptimisticdueto
thereportedcomplexityoftherequiredrepairsandtheonsetofice.RelatedtoincreasingBalticandArctic
exports, reports indicate that Russia has begun to modernise its icebreaker fleet with state controlled
shipyards engaged to build a number of new icebreakers to operate in the Gulf of Finland and along the
Northern Sea Route, where Russia hopes to establish a major trade route. Additionally, the Russian
governmentplanstoconstructtenemergencycentresby2016withthecapabilitytodealwithanyaccidents
occurringalongRussiasarcticcoast.
26
18J ANUARY 2012
OECD S TOCKS
OECD STOCKS
Summary
OECD industry oil holdings rose by 4.1mb in November, to 2647mb, in contrast with a fiveyear
average14.9mbdraw.Eventhoughthedeficitofinventoriesversusthefiveyearaveragenarrowed
to30.3mb,from49.2mbinOctober,stocklevelsnonethelessremainedbelowthefiveyearaverage
forafifthconsecutivemonth.
Preliminary data indicate a seasonal 23.6mb draw in December OECD industry inventories,
compared with the fiveyear average drop of 37.4mb. Crude oil stocks led the decline by falling
16.1mb,mostofwhichstemmedfromEurope.Productholdingsfellby2.7mb,drivenbysharpdrops
inotherproductsintheUSandkerosenestocksinJapan.
Shorttermoilfloatingstoragefellby5.2mb,from39.7mbinNovemberto34.5mbinDecember.
DespiteanincreaseinIraniancrudeoilfloatingstorageintheMiddleEast,reductionsinAsiaPacific
andtheUSGulfduetoapersistentlybackwardatedpricingstructureoutweighedtheincrease
OECD Total Oil Stocks
mb
mb
2,855
200
2,755
150
OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks

Relative to Five-Year Average
100
2,655
50
2,555
0
-50
2,455
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
-100
Nov 09 May 10
Pacific
Europe
Nov 10
May 11 Nov 11
North Am erica
OECD
OECD Inventories at End-November and Revisions to Preliminary Data

OECDindustryoilholdingsroseby4.1mbinNovember,to2647mb,incontrastwithafiveyearaverage
14.9mbdraw.Eventhoughthedeficitofinventoriesversusthefiveyearaveragenarrowedto30.3mb,
from 49.2mb in October, stock levels nonetheless remained below the fiveyear average for a fifth
consecutivemonth.NorthAmericawastheonlyregionwithstocksabovethefiveyearaverage,bothfor
crude and products. OECD forward demand cover fell to 57.5days from 58.0 days in October, but
continuedtostand1.5daysabovethefiveyearaverageof56.0days.
Preliminary Industry Stock Change in November and Third Quarter 2011

Nove (preliminary)
(million barrels)
Third Quarter 2011

N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
-3.5
8.0
0.2
2.5
-6.1
5.8
4.4
1.9
1.6
0.3
-5.9
-0.8
0.9
-0.1
-3.2
-3.6
11.6
2.9
4.0
-8.9
-0.12
0.27
0.01
0.08
-0.20
0.19
0.15
0.06
0.05
0.01
-0.20
-0.03
0.03
0.00
-0.11
-0.12
0.39
0.10
0.13
-0.30
-0.36
0.02
0.16
-0.02
0.13
-0.11
-0.03
-0.09
0.00
0.06
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.11
-0.49
-0.02
0.07
-0.03
0.30
Total Products
Other Oils 1
Total Oil
4.7
-4.8
-3.7
8.1
1.3
15.3
-3.2
1.6
-7.5
9.6
-1.9
4.1
0.16
-0.16
-0.12
0.27
0.04
0.51
-0.11
0.05
-0.25
0.32
-0.06
0.14
0.30
0.08
0.02
-0.08
-0.04
-0.23
0.10
-0.01
0.07
0.32
0.03
-0.14
1 Other o ils includes NGLs, feedsto cks and o ther hydro carbo ns.
18J ANUARY 2012
27
OECD S TOCKS
Crudestocksdeclinedseasonallyby3.6mbto929mb,withthedeficitofinventoriesversusthefiveyear
average widening to 28.9mb, marking a fifth straight month of below average readings. While crude
holdingsinOECDPacificandNorthAmericafellby5.9mband3.5mb,respectively,Europesawa5.8mb
build,followingthereturnofasignificantamountofLibyancrudeproduction.Inthemeantime,product
inventoriesroseby9.6mbinNovember,narrowingtheirdeficitagainstthefiveyearaverageto4.9mb,
from20.3mbinOctober.Gasolinestocksledtheincreasebygaining11.6mbonhigherproductioninthe
midstoflowseasonaldemand.Middledistillatesroseinallthreeregionsthankstowarmerthannormal
weather.Otherproducts,bycontrast,decreasedsignificantlyby8.9mb,mostlyinNorthAmerica.
OECD Crude Oil Stocks
mb
mb
OECD Total Products Stocks
1,555
1,035
1,505
985
1,455
1,405
935
1,355
885
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
1,305
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD stocks were revised 12.7mb higher in October, upon receipt of more complete monthly
submissions from member countries. This implies a 21.0mb draw in October inventory levels, a lesser
decline than the preliminary drop of 36.3mb. Upward adjustments were centred on North American
crudeoilandmiddledistillatestocks,whichwererevisedhigherby9.0mband7.0mb,respectively.
Revisions versus 13 December 2011 Oil Market Report

(millio n barrels)
North America
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
Other Oils 1
Total Oil
Europe
Pacific
OECD
Sep-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
-2.2
-0.6
-1.1
-0.1
-0.6
-2.3
0.7
-3.8
9.0
-0.8
7.0
-0.7
-3.7
1.9
-3.1
7.8
0.4
-0.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.4
1.1
2.6
1.2
0.3
-0.3
2.1
3.2
0.8
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.8
-0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-1.6
-1.8
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.6
-2.0
1.1
-2.7
10.8
-0.4
7.2
-0.8
-1.3
4.6
-2.8
12.7
1 Other o ils includes NGLs, feedsto cks and o ther hydro carbo ns.
Preliminary data indicate a seasonal 23.6mb draw in December OECD industry inventories, compared
withafiveyearaverage37.4mbdrop.Crudeoilstocksledthedecline,fallingby16.1mb,mostofwhich
stemmedfromEurope.Productholdingsfellby2.7mb,drivenbysharpdrawsinotherproductsinthe
US and for kerosene stocks in Japan, while builds in gasoline and middle distillate holdings in the US
providedapartialoffset.
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes

OECD North America
NorthAmericanindustryoilinventoriesfellseasonallyby3.7mbto1330mbinNovember,nonetheless
amilderfallthanthefiveyearaverage16.3mb.Crudeoilholdingsdeclinedby3.5mb,mostlyonlower
imports into the US for endyear tax reasons. Other oils stocks including feedstocks also decreased
28
18J ANUARY 2012
OECD S TOCKS
significantly by 4.8mb, mostly affected by rising refinery throughput. Meanwhile, product inventories
rose by 4.7mb in contrast with a fiveyear average 4.0mb draw. Gasoline and fuel oil stocks took the
lead,risingby8.0mband2.5mb,respectively.Motorgasolineholdingsgainedonhigherproductionand
imports in the midst of low seasonal demand. Other products was the only category that showed a
draw,decliningsharplyby6.1mb,duetotheincreaseduseofnaphthaforgasolineblending.
OECD North America Crude Oil

Stocks
mb
535
515
495
475
455
435
415
395
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD North America Total Products

Stocks
mb
755
735
715
695
675
655
635
615
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
US weekly data point to a 5.6mb decline in US industry stocks in December. Crude holdings fell by
4.8mb,affectedbythelastinfirstouttaxsystem.Inthemeantime,crudelevelsatCushing,Oklahoma
showed a further drop of 1.9mb to 29.2mb in December, marking the lowest monthly level since
November2009.ThestorageutilisationrateatCushinghasbeenonadownwardtrendsinceApril,when
itwasover80%,reachinganestimated50%,amidrisingPADD2refineryruns,onwardcrudeshipments
fromCushingandsignificantstoragecapacityexpansion(seeStorageExpansionatCushing).
mb
390
US Weekly Industry Crude Oil Stocks
370
40
350
35
330
30
US Weekly Cushing Crude Stocks
25
310
20
290
15
Source: EIA
270
Jan
mb
45
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011
Oct
5-yr Average
2012
Source: EIA
10
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-11
2011
Oct
5-yr Average
2012
US product inventories rose by 2.6 mb in December, driven by gains in gasoline and middle distillate
stocks,whichroseby7.0mband3.4mb,respectivelyonhigherproduction.Meanwhile,otherproducts
and fuel oil inventories fell by 5.5mb and 2.3mb, respectively, offsetting much of the gasoline and
distillatesgains.
Storage Expansion at Cushing

CrudestoragecapacityatCushing,OklahomathedeliverypointfortheNYMEXlightsweetcrudeoil(WTI)
futureshasbeenincreasingdramaticallyoverthelastyearandseemslikelytocontinuethistrendinthe
nearfuture.
WhileprecisecapacitylevelsatCushingremaindifficulttogauge,thebuildupofcrudeinstoragethere,and
resultantsharprelativeweakeninginWTIprices(todiscountsexceeding$25/bblversusBrentattimes)has
seen capacity expansion accelerate. Storage capacity at Cushing is estimated to have expanded by
18J ANUARY 2012
29
OECD S TOCKS
Storage Expansion at Cushing (continued)

approximately5mborlessannuallyduring20052010.However,accordingtomostsources,includingthe
EIA,therewasan1114mbstoragebuildin2011.Moreover,atleastanother78mbofcapacitywilllikely
beaddedin2012.
There are a couple of reasons behind this rush. Thanks
to technologies such as hydraulic fracturing, output of
light, tight oil from locations such as North Dakota and
Texas has surged, while output from the Alberta oil
sandsalsocontinuestorampup.Forpipelinecompanies
confronting the resultant influx of crude to Cushing,
amid bottlenecks in the ability to ship crude onward to
refiningcentresontheUSGulfandEastcoasts,storage
build has become more of a necessity than an option.
Moreover, with a proliferation of crude qualities now
coming in to Cushing storage, the need for segregation
has further boosted the pace of capacity expansion.
Storage capacity expansion may continue at an
acceleratedpaceuntilsuchtimeaspipelinecapacityto
evacuatecrudetocoastalrefiningcentrescatchesup.
mb
Cushing Storage Expansion
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
End-2009
End-2010
End-2011
End-2012
Maximum Nameplate Capacity estimated (projected)

Minimum Nameplate Capacity estimated (projected)
The other impetus has derived from price. In recent years (specifically from 2006 to October 2011), the
contangoinWTIfuturespriceshasincentivisedholdingbarrelsinstoragenowtosellatahigherpriceinthe
future.With storage utilisation at Cushingoccasionally breaching 80%, there has been every incentive for
companiestoexpandtankage.EventhoughWTIflippedintobackwardationagaininlateOctober2011,and
the utilisation rate fell back to around 50% at the end of 2011, price volatility continues to provide an
incentive for Cushing storage expansion. If market players perceive there to be buy low, sell high
opportunitiesinfuture,furtherCushingstorageexpansionislikely.
OECD Europe
IndustryoilinventoriesinEuroperoseseasonallyby15.3mbto917mbinNovember,morethandouble
the7.0mbfiveyearaveragebuild.AlthoughtheyreboundedfromeightyearlowsinOctober,andthus
returned to the fiveyear range, the deficit versus fiveyear average stock levels remained at 34.2mb.
Crude stocks increased by 5.8mb, but were still at their lowest since February 2003, marking a ninth
straight month under the fiveyear range. A more rapidthanexpected return of Libyas crude output,
and recovering North Sea supplies helped to loosen some of the prevailing tightness in the regional
crudeoilmarket.Moreover,Europeanrefinedproductholdingsalsoroseby8.1mbonhealthierrefinery
runs. Gasoline and middle distillates led the increase, rising by 4.4mb and 1.9mb, respectively.
Meanwhile,Germanenduserheatingoilstocksroseto59%fillatendNovember.
mb
OECD Europe Total Oil Stocks
1,065
365
1,015
345
965
325
915
305
865
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
30
mb
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
285
Jan
OECD Europe Crude Oil Stocks
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
18J ANUARY 2012
OECD S TOCKS
PreliminarydatafromEuroilstockpointtoa13.7mbdrawincrudeoilandproductinventoriescombined
intheEU15andNorwayinDecember,incontrastwithafiveyearaverage11.2mbbuild.Crudestocks
fell by 13.3mb likely on weak demand (due to continuing high crude prices), and several refinery
shutdowns from January. Products holdings edged up by 0.4mb, as gains in gasoline and middle
distillates outweighed declines in fuel oil and other products stocks. Refined product stocks held in
independentstorageinNorthwestEuropeedgeddownduetomildwinterweatherandabackwardated
pricestructure.
OECD Pacific
CommercialoilinventoriesintheOECDPacificfellby7.5mbto400mbinNovemberandstayedunder
thefiveyearrangeforasecondconsecutivemonth,wideningthedeficitversusthefiveyearaverageto
23.5mb, from 21.5mb in October. Crude stocks declined by 5.9mb to 150mb in contrast with a
fiveyearaveragebuildof1.1mb,markingthelowestlevelonrecentrecord.Moreover,crudeholdings
in Japan fell by 2.6mb to 101mb, again the lowest level in recorded history. Product stocks fell by
3.2mb,stayingbarelywithinthefiveyearrange.Allproductsinventoriesexceptmiddledistillatesfell.
Other products, gasoline and fuel oil holdings declined by 3.2mb, 0.8mb and 0.1mb, respectively,
whilemiddledistillatestocksroseby0.9mb.
OECD Pacific Crude Oil Stocks
mb
mb
190
OECD Pacific Total Products Stocks
217
180
197
170
177
160
157
150
140
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
137
Jan
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
WeeklydatafromPetroleumAssociationofJapan(PAJ)suggestaseasonaldrawof4.4mbinJapanese
industry oil inventories in December. Product stocks fell by 5.0mb, driven by a drop in kerosene
holdings. Colderthannormal weather drove kerosene stocks down by 4.5mb, putting an end to a
steadilyrisingtrendthatcontinuedafterthemajorearthquakeandtsunamiinMarch.Gasolineandfuel
oil holdings also contributed to the decrease, falling by 0.9mb and 1.2mb, respectively, while middle
distillate(excludingkerosene)andotherproductsstocksincreasedby1.0mband0.6mb,each.Inthe
meantime,crudeoilinventoriesroseby2.0mb,likelyonhighercrudeoilimports.
mb
35
mb
Japan Weekly Kerosene Stocks
Japan Weekly Crude Stocks
130
30
120
25
110
20
100
15
90
10
Source: PAJ
Source: PAJ
5
Jan
18J ANUARY 2012
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-11
2011
Oct
5-yr Average
2012
80
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-11
2011
Oct
5-yr Average
2012
31
OECD S TOCKS
Recent Developments in Singapore and China Stocks

According to China Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals (OGP), Chinese commercial oil inventories rose in
Novemberbyanequivalentof1.5mb(dataarereportedintermsofpercentagestockchange).Although
importsreachedanewintrayearhighinNovember,crudeoilstocksfellby1.3%(2.9mb)asaresultofa
sharp increase in refinery throughput and a moderate fall in domestic crude production. Thanks to
higherrefinerythroughput,aggregateproductholdingsclimbedby3.6%(4.4mb),risingforthefirsttime
insixmonths.Gasoline,dieselandkeroseneinventoriesincreasedby4.9%(2.5mb),2.3%(1.3mb)and
5.2%(0.5mb),respectively.
mb
10
China Monthly Oil Stock Change*
mb
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
Source: Int ernat ional Enterprise
4
Jan
Apr
Jul
5
0
(5)
(10) So urce: China Oil, Gas and P etro chemicals
May 11
Jul 11
Sep 11
Nov 11
Crude
Gasoline
Gasoil
Range 2007-2011
2011
Kerosene
*Since A ugust 2010, COGP o nly repo rts percentage sto ck change
Singapore Weekly Middle Distillate

Stocks
Oct
5-yr Average
2012
Singapore onshore inventories fell by 2.6mb in December, led by draws in light distillate and fuel oil
holdings. Light distillate stocks declined by 1.8mb due to limited imports from North Asian countries.
Fueloilinventoriesdecreasedby1.0mb,plungingtoan11monthlowasinflowsfromEuropewerethin
andregionalbunkerdemandstayedstrong.Inthemeantime,middledistillateholdingsedgedhigherby
0.2mboverall.However,thismaskedfluctuatingtrendsthroughthemonth.InearlyDecember,distillate
stocksplummetedtoa43monthlowonlimitedoutputfromShells550000b/drefineryinSingapore,
lower imports from Japan and South Korea and higher exports to China. However, distillate holdings
rebounded to gain monthonmonth in December, as arbitrage for jet fuel and diesel deliveries to
EuropesignificantlynarrowedinlateDecember.
32
18J ANUARY 2012
OECD S TOCKS
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks

(in days of forward demand and millions barrels of total oil)
Days1
Days
Million Barrels
60
mb
1,450
58
1,400
56
1,350
North America
54
North America
1,300
52
1,250
50
48
1,200
46
1,150
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
72
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Avg 2006-2010
2011
mb
1,020
Europe
70
1,000
68
980
66
960
64
940
62
920
60
900
58
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Europe
880
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
58
Sep
Nov
Jan
May
mb
480
Pacific
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Pacific
460
440
52
420
50
400
48
46
380
44
360
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
62
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
mb
2,850
OECD Total Oil
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD Total Oil
2,800
60
2,750
58
2,700
56
2,650
54
2,600
52
2,550
2,500
50
Jan
Mar
Range 2006-2010
2010
56
54
Jan
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Mar
May
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Jan
Jan
Mar
1 Days of forward demand are based on average demand over the next three months
18J ANUARY 2012
May
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
33
P RICES
PRICES
Summary
OilmarketsbegantheNewYearconfrontedwithahostofsupplyissues,notleastaloomingEUban
on Iranian oil imports and retaliatory threats from Tehran to close the pivotal Strait of Hormuz,
throughwhichflowsroughlyonethirdofworldoilexports.Oilpricesinitiallyjumped$45/bblonthe
reports,buteasedagain,understressfrommountingeurozonedebtissues.Brentwaslasttradingat
$112/bblandWTIat$100.50/bbl.
Regulatory bodies on both sides of the Atlantic will be busy in 2012 finalising rules for moving
swaps onto electronic trading platforms with a view to pretrade transparency by ensuring prices
are posted to a wide variety of market participants, not just among dealers. Some market players,
however,arguedthatsuchamoveactuallyreduces,ratherthanincreases,transparency.
Spotcrudeoilmarketswere, understandably,propelledhigherin DecemberandearlyJanuaryby

the convergence of geopolitical events threatening global oil supplies in Iran, Nigeria and Syria.
Monthonmonth, however, spot prices were mixed, with ample supplies in Europe weighing on
DatedBrent,whileWTIstrengthenedonstrongerdemandandreducedstocksatCushing.
Middle distillate cracks spreads fell in December as abovenormal winter temperatures in the
Northern Hemisphere pressured prices. Gasoline crack spreads improved slightly, and naphtha
marketsrecoveredfromthelowsseeninNovember.Fueloilcrackspreadsalsocontinuedtoimprove.
TankerratesforallbenchmarkcrudevoyagesstrengthenedoverDecemberandintoearlyJanuary,
finishing2011onanupwardnoteandreversingtheirdire3Q11performance.Despiteaslowstart,
rates on the Middle East Gulf Japan VLCC route firmed from midDecember onwards, buoyed by
highAsiandemandandchartershurryingtofixcargoesbeforetheholidays.
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
Source: ICE, NYMEX
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jan 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
NYMEX WTI
Oct 11
NYMEX WTI & ICE Brent

Forward Price Curves
$/bbl
130
Jan 12
ICE Brent
11Jan2012
Source: ICE, NYMEX
M1 2
NYMEX WTI
9 10 11 12
ICE Brent
Market Overview
The new year saw oil markets again rattled by a series of longstanding geopolitical issues. The
international community moved to further tighten its economic sanctions stranglehold on Iran over
nuclearambitions,butthistimespecificallytargetedoilexports,whichhasraisedalarm bellsoverthe
possibility of military action in the Gulf. Meanwhile, civil strife in Nigeria over the removal of fuel
subsidies,threatenedtoshutinthecountrysoilproduction.Theeurozonecrisisdeepenedfurtherafter
Standard & Poors knocked down the credit rating of half a dozen European countries, including
tripleAratedFranceandAustria.
34
18 J ANUARY 2012
P RICES
Whenmarketsreopenedon3January,oilfuturesspiked$45/bblaboveend2011prices.Brentfutures
fell on average in December, by $2.77/bbl to $107.72/bbl. After reaching a twomonth high of
$113.70/bbl in early January, prices again eased under the weight of euro zone debt issues. For 2011,
averageannualfuturespricesforBrentwereatrecordlevels,up$30.57/bblto$110.91/bbl.WTIfutures
prices rose by $1.41/bbl to $98.58/bbl in December. WTI closed the year up $15.50/bbl to an average
$95.11/bblin2011.Afterpeakingat$103.22/bblinearlyJanuary,pricesretracedtheirgainsandwere
lasttradingaround$100.50/bbl.
NYMEX WTI vs S&P 500
US$/bbl
120
1500
Source: NYMEX
110
110
1400
Index
70
Source: ICE, NYMEX
75
100
100
1300
1200
80
80
85
1100
70
Jul 10
Jan 11
NYMEX WTI
Jul 11
80
90
90
60
Jan 10
NYMEX WTI vs US Dollar Index
US$/bbl
120
Index
70
60
Jan 10
1000
Jan 12
Jul 10
NYMEX WTI
S&P 500 (RHS)
Jan 11
Jul 11
90
Jan 12
US Dollar Index (inversed RHS)
Supplyissuesmayonceagaindriveoilpricedirectionthisyear,astheydidin2011.ThelossofLibyan
crudeoilproductiondominatedlastyear,triggeringa$2224/bblriseinpricesaboveprecrisislevelsand
shortingthemarketoflight,sweetcrude.Iraniansupplyprospectsarenowfrontandcentre,including
the everpresent, if unlikely, threat of closure of the Strait of Hormuz. European refiners have shifted
theirconcernfromalossoflightsweetLibyanbarrelstotheavailabilityofheavierIraniancrudefortheir
refining systems. However, while some market dislocation is inevitable, the gradual phasein of any
EUimportbanandtheconsiderablelatitudeinimplementationbuiltintotheUSsanctionswillserveto
minimiseunwantedmarketdisruptions.
Thefragileeconomicoutlookisalreadytemperingfearsofphysicalsupplydisruptions.Indeed,globaloil
demand for 1Q12 has been revised down by a sharp 0.5 mb/d, to 89.5 mb/d and fullyear demand is
loweredby0.2mb/dto90mb/d.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices

(monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl)
Oct
NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude Oil
86.43
RBOB
112.61
No.2 Heating Oil
124.27
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu)
21.33
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
3.62
ICE
Brent
108.79
Gasoil
123.84
Prompt Month Differentials
NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent
-22.36
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI
37.84
NYMEX RBOB - WTI
26.18
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB)
30.07
NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu 17.71
ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent
15.05
Source: ICE, NYMEX
18 J ANUARY 2012
Nov
97.16
108.50
128.63
22.08
3.56
Dec
Dec-Nov
% Week Commencing:
Avg Chg Chg 12 Dec 19 Dec 26 Dec
02 Jan 09 Jan
98.58
109.14
122.13
20.97
3.25
1.41
0.64
-6.50
-1.12
-0.31
1.4
0.6
-5.3
-5.3
-9.6
96.05
106.41
119.93
20.59
3.18
97.80
99.80
109.32 112.42
120.43 122.37
20.67
21.01
3.13
3.05
102.39 100.44
115.73 115.59
128.49 128.69
22.06 22.09
3.03
2.82
110.49 107.72
129.27 124.05
-2.77
-5.22
-2.6
-4.2
106.04
122.41
106.79 108.06
121.82 123.66
112.91 111.93
129.18 130.17
-13.33
31.47
11.34
18.05
18.53
18.78
4.18
-7.91
-0.77
-3.15
-0.80
-2.46
-9.15
23.56
10.57
14.90
17.72
16.32
-9.99
23.88
10.35
14.86
17.40
16.36
-8.99
22.63
11.53
15.23
17.54
15.03
-8.26
22.58
12.62
15.94
17.95
15.61
-10.52
26.10
13.34
17.60
19.03
16.27
-11.49
28.25
15.15
19.51
19.27
18.23
35
P RICES
Brent futures prices remained firmly backwardated in

January, whereby prompt prices are stronger than
furtherout.However,increasedNorthSeasupplieswere
likely behind the Brent M1M12 backwardation
narrowing in December, to $3.70/bbl compared with
$4.90/bblinNovember.InearlyJanuary,thedifferential
deepened again to an average $4.15/bbl in the first
twoweeksofthemonth.
The WTI M1M12 contract posted a similar easing,

averagingjust$0.55/bblbymidJanuarycomparedwitha
monthlyaverageof$1.13/bblinDecemberand$1.43/bbl
inNovember.
Crude Futures
Forward Spreads
$/bbl
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Dec 10
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Mar 11
Jun 11
WTI M1-M12
Sep 11
Dec 11
Brent M1-M12
Futures Markets
Activity Levels
DespiteadeclineintradingvolumeandrelativelystablepricesontheNewYorkCMEWTIcontract,open
interest, the number of contracts that have not been closed or delivered, posted three consecutive
weeks of increases, reaching a twomonth peak, triggered by supply concerns. The ratio of Brent on
London ICE to New York and Londonbased WTI combined futures contracts open interest climbed to
54%,anincreaseofalmost15%sinceJuly2011.
OpeninterestinNewYorkCMEWTIfuturesandoptionscontractsincreasedby2.27%from6December
2011 to 10 January 2012, reaching 2.35 million contracts after plunging by 13.9% in November.
Meanwhile, open interest in futuresonly contracts increased by more than 4.22% during the same
period, from 1.33million to 1.39 million. Over the same period, open interest in London ICE WTI
contracts dropped to 0.37million and 0.43 million contracts in futuresonly and combined contracts,
respectively.OpeninterestinICEBrentcontractsincreasedto0.95millionand1.06millioncontractsin
futuresonlyandcombinedcontracts,respectively.
'000
Contracts
NYMEX WTI Mth1

Open Interest
$/bbl
'000
Contracts
Net Positions in WTI Futures
1,600
120
200
$/bbl
105
1,500
100
100
100
1,400
80
1,300
60
1,200
1,100
Source: CFTC, NYMEX
40
1,000
20
Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
Open Interest
NYMEX WTI Mth1
Source: CFTC, NYMEX
95
-100
90
-200
85
15 Nov
29 Nov
Producers
Money Managers
Non-Reportables
13 Dec
27 Dec
10 Jan
Swap Dealers
Other Reportables
NYMEX WTI
MoneymanagersreducedtheirbetsonrisingWTIcrudeoilpricesinNewYorkforthefirsttwoweeksof
December, shrinking the number of net futures long holdings to 151304 contracts from a high of
174381contractsintheweekending20Decemberasaresponsetorenewedconcernsoverthehealth
oftheEuroareaeconomy.However,concernsoverpossibleEuropeansanctionsonIranianoilimports
subsequently induced a reversal in this position. Overall, in December, net futures long positions of
managed money traders declined only by 238 from 174323 to 174085 contracts in New York and
increasingfrom12127to15775contractsinLondon.Overthesameperiod,moneymanagersinLondon
followed a similar pattern as New Yorkdeclining in the first two weeks and increasing thereafter.
Overall, traders increased their Brent futures net long position in December by 5.89% from 85516 to
90551contracts,duetoconcernsoverIranianandSyrianoilsupply.
36
18 J ANUARY 2012
P RICES
Producersalsoreducedtheirnetfuturesshortpositionsfrom118152to98646contractsinDecember;
theyheld20.46%oftheshortand13.35%ofthelongcontractsinCMEWTIfuturesonlycontracts.Swap
dealers, who accounted for 28.3% and 35.3% of the open interest on the long side and short side,
respectively, increased their net short position by 47.3% to hold 96 749 net short in December.
Producers trading activity in the London WTI contracts also followed a similar pattern as CME WTI
contracts.ProducersincreasedtheirnetlongpositionsinLondonICEWTIcontractsfrom1126to22894
contracts over the same period. Swap dealers alsoincreased their net short positions to42237 in the
weekending10January2012,fromanearlier22413contracts.
IndexinvestorslongexposureincommoditiesinNovember2011declinedby$0.7billion.However,they
added$9.9billiontoWTILightSweetCrudeOil,bothonandofffuturescontracts.Thenumberoffutures
equivalentcontractsincreasedtoanalltimehighof695000contractssincetheCFTCstartedpublishing
itsindexinvestmentdatainDecemberof2007,equivalentto$69.4billioninnotionalvalue.
Positions on NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Futures Contracts
Thousand Contracts
10 January 2012
Producers' Positions
Swap Dealers' Positions
Money Managers' Positions
Others' Positions
Non-Reportable Positions
Open Interest
Source: CFTC
Long
Short
185.4
187.6
213.7
98.5
94.7
284.1
284.3
39.6
113.2
58.7
Net
-98.6
-96.7
174.1
-14.7
36.0
1388.8
Long/Short
Short
Short
Long
Short
Long
Net from Prev.
Net Vs Last
Week
Month
0.6
-23.8
4.1
10.8
8.4
15.8
19.5
-31.1
-0.2
3.8
8.0
56.3
Market Regulation
On 20 December 2011, the CFTC unanimously approved the final rule on realtime reporting of swap
trades. The final rule calls for swaps subject to a clearing requirement to be made public within
30minutesofexecutionofthetransactioninthefirstyearand narrowedto 15minutesafterthefirst
year.Enduserswillberequiredtoreportwithin48hoursinthefirstyear,36hoursinthesecondyear
and finally 24 hours after the second year. The rule on block trades has been removed from final
rulemakinganditisexpectedthattheruleonappropriateblocksizewillberedraftedin2012.Thefinal
rulewaswelcomedbymarketparticipantswhoraisedconcernoverthepotentialforshortertimedelays
forrealtimereportingtoreducemarketliquidity.
The CFTC also approved the extension of the effective date of the provisions in the swap regulatory
regime that would have gone into effect on 16 July 2011 established by the DoddFrank Act. The
approved amendment extends CFTCs temporary relief order, initially issued on 14 July 2011, until
16July2012from31December2011.
Inacontentious32voteon11January2012,CFTCCommissionersproposedlimitsonbanksproprietary
trading and hedge fund investments in line with the restrictions proposed by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve, the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and the
ComptrolleroftheCurrencyinOctober,2011.Theproposedruleprohibitsproprietarytradingactivities
of banks and limits their investments in privateequity and hedge funds in order to reduce risk in the
bankingsystem.
As noted in the previous OMR, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) and the
SecuritiesIndustryandFinancialMarketsAssociation(SIFAM)filedalawsuitinthefederalappealcourt
challenging the CFTCs position limits rule. The CFTC, on 4 January 2012, asked the federal court to
dismissthechallenge,claimingitdoesnothavejurisdictiontoconsiderthelawsuit.TheCFTCarguedthat
thedistrictcourt,ratherthanfederalcourt,mustfirsthearthechallengetotherule.Inresponse,ISDA
18 J ANUARY 2012
37
P RICES
andSIFAMaskedtheappealcourt,on12January2012,todelaytherulewhilethecourtconsiderstheir
legal challenge against the position limit rule in order to prevent irreversible harms. Meanwhile the
EuropeanParliamentandCouncilofMinisters,on19December2011,failedtoreachanagreementona
final text for the European Markets Infrastructure Regulation, further delaying regulation of swap
marketsinEurope.
Swap Execution Facilities

Regulatory bodies on both sides of the Atlantic will be busy in 2012 finalising rules on one of the most
important requirements for bringing preand posttrade transparencyto the overthecounter derivatives
markets by ensuring prices are posted to a wide variety of market participants, not just among dealers.
InitiallysetbytheG20leadersattheirPittsburghSummitinSeptember2009andlateradoptedinreform
packages in the US and Europe, transparency would be achieved through the requirements that all
standardisedOTCderivativescontractsshouldbetradedonexchangesorelectronictradingplatforms,where
appropriate,andclearedthroughcentralcounterpartiesbyend2012atthelatest.
For this purpose, the DoddFrank Act in the US introduced a new trading venue called a swap execution
facility(SEF),whereonlystandardisedswapswillbetraded.TheDoddFrankActdefinesanSEFas"afacility,
trading system or platform in which multiple participants have the ability to execute or trade swaps by
acceptingbidsandoffersmadebyotherparticipantsthatareopentomultipleparticipantsinthefacilityor
system,throughanymeansofinterstatecommerce."SEFsaresimilartomultilateraltradingfacilities(MTFs)
inEuropeanmarkets.InadditiontoMTFs,theEuropeanCommissionalsointroducedanewtradingvenue
category(organisedtradingfacilityOTF)tocoverhybridplatformsrunbyfirmswhichcurrentlydonot
fallunderthecurrentMiFIDcategoriesfororganisedtrading.
Although the general details of these facilities and how they are going to function have already been
proposed,finalruleswillemergelaterin2012.However,therearecertaindifferencesbetweenregulatorsin
the interpretation of swap execution facilities. For example, as opposed to the strict CFTC proposal that
swapexecutionfacilitiesbeeitherorderbookorrequestforquotes(RFQs)fromaminimumoffivepossible
seller facilities, the SEC has proposed a looser definition of these platforms, which do not require order
booksandwouldallowbuyerstorequestaquotefromasingleseller.
Furthermore, the SEC proposal allows for voice broking, rather than stipulating electronic trading as the
CFTChas.However,theUSHouseCommitteeonFinancialServicesapprovedlegislation(H.R.2586)inlate
November2011whichwouldpreventtheCFTCfromimposingarequirementthatswapbuyersseekquotes
from at least five participants before executing a trade. On 23December 2011, the US House Committee
Agriculturegrantedanextensionforfurtherconsiderationby1February2012.WeexpecttheCFTCfinalrule
tobesimilartoonethatSEChasalreadyproposed,includingkeepingvoicebroking.
On 5 December 2011, the CFTC proposed further rules establishing a process for designated contract
markets(DCMs)andSEFstomakeswaps"availabletotrade"withoutadefiningswap.Theproposalcallsfor
DCMs and SEFs to submit to the CFTC a determination that a swap is available to trade. To make a swap
availablefortradingundertheproposedrules,DCMsandSEFsmustconsider:
Thereadinessandavailabilityofbuyersandsellersoftheswap.
ThefrequencyandsizeoftransactionsintheswaponthatDCMorSEF,orofbilateraltransactions
intheswap.
ThetradingvolumefortheswaponthatDCMorSEF,orofbilateraltransactionsintheswap.
Thebid/askspreadfortheswap.
TheusualnumberofrestingfirmorindicativebidsandoffersthattheDCMorSEFreceivesinthe
particularswapbeingconsidered.
WhethertheDCM'sorSEF'stradingfacilityorplatformwillsupporttradingintheswap.
Anyotherrelevantfactors.
A determination of which swaps would be made available to trade might be a challenging task both for
regulatorsandtradingfacilities.AsmentionedinpreviousOMRs,theOTCmarketisdifferentfromthefutures
markets. Instruments (swaps) in the OTC markets can trade infrequently, often in significant sizes,
38
18 J ANUARY 2012
P RICES
Swap Execution Facilities (Continued)

betweendealersandendusersorspeculators.Ifactivityinthefuturesmarketsisanyevidence,arelatively
small number of highly liquid instruments has been effectively traded on the exchange. The failure rate
especiallyinlessliquidinstrumentshasbeenveryhigh.However,alighterSECproposalmightbetheproper
waytobringtransparency,whileensuringcontinuedliquidityintheswapmarkets.
Somemarketparticipantsraisedconcernoverexcessivefragmentationofmarketswiththeintroductionof
different trading venues. For example, the purpose of introduction of OTFs, which can be considered a
subcategory of MTFs, in the European Union is not well understood, except as creating further market
fragmentation.Opacityintermsofunknowncounterpartiesattractedbyashifttowardselectronictrading,
aswellasexcessivefragmentationofmarkets,isactuallyasourceofless,andnotmore,transparencyinthe
market.
MarketparticipantsalsoarguethatOTCmarketsareforprofessionals;notforretailinvestors.Theroleof
brokers is primary in providing transparency. A move to a platformbased trading systems with a view to
pretradetransparency,actuallyremovestransparencyfortheprofessionalsthatareinvolved.
Afinalcriticismofmovingswapsontoplatformsisrelatedtothesupportingclaimthatelectronictradingis
associatedwithhighervolumesandvolatilityoftrading.Criticsarguethatmarketscouldbesubjecttothe
kindofvolatilityevidentinthefuturesmarketsimmediatelyaftertheintroductionofelectronictradingto
theNYMEXandICEexchanges.Itistruethatthevolumeoftradingincreasedaftermovingfromopenoutcry
to electronic trading. However, there is no empirical evidence supporting the claim of increased volatility
duetoelectronictrading.
Spot Crude Oil Prices

Our usual summary tables of average spot crude oil and products prices, and
Table 13, in the subscriber edition of this report have been removed pending further
licensing discussions with the data provider.
Spot crude oil markets were, understandably, propelled higher in December and early January by the
convergenceofgeopoliticaleventsthreateningoilsuppliesfromIran,NigeriaandSyria.Spotcrudeprices
monthonmonth,however,weremixed.DecemberspotpricesforDatedBrentdeclinedby$2.85/bbl,to
anaverage$107.83/bbl.Dubaicrudewasalsodownonthemonth,offaround$2.55/bbltoanaverage
$106.43/bbl. Butthemonthlydeclinesmaskedthesteadyupwardtrendforbothgradesoverthepast
sixweeks.
Bycontrast,WTIrosebyaround$1.40/bblinDecember,toaverage$98.60/bbl.WTIsrelativestrength
partly reflected the recent drawdown in stocks at Cushing, where inventories are at their lowest level
sinceautumn2009(seeStocks,CushingStorageExpansion).TheWTI/Brentpricespreadcontinuedto
narrowinDecember,to$9.25/bblcomparedwith$13.50/bblinNovemberand$23/bblinOctober.
$/bbl
130
Benchmark Crude Prices
$/bbl
WTI vs Dated Brent Differential
120
-5
110
-10
100
-15
90
-20
-25
80
Data source: Platts analysis
-30
70
Dec 10
Mar 11
WTI Cushing
18 J ANUARY 2012
Jun 11
Sep 11
Dated Brent
-35
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dubai
Mar 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Dec 11
39
P RICES
WhileannouncementofapotentialEUembargoonIraniancrudeinitiallytriggeredaspike,pricesfelloff
when details emerged that the timeline could be six months or more. In addition, the steady rise in
Libyanexports,increasedsuppliesofNorthSeagradesandcontinuedeurozonefiscalissuesweighedon
markets. European crude markets were further pressured after credit problems at the region's largest
independent refiner, Petroplus, forced the company to cut production as it teetered on the brink of
bankruptcy(seeRefining,PetroPlusLatestVictimofEuropeanDownstreamMalaise).
MeanwhilestrongerfueloilmarketsinEuropeatendDecemberandintoJanuarysawBrentUralsprice
differentialsnarrow.IncreaseddemandforUralsisalsocomingfromEuropeanandChinesebuyers,who
seethecrudeasasuitablealternativetoIranianbarrels.China,whichcutitsIranianimportsinhalfwhile
itrenegotiatesits2012termcontracts,reportedlyboughtUralsasareplacement.
Although European spot crude markets look fairly wellsupplied now, refiners are already aggressively
searching for alternatives to Iranian grades. Depending on refinery complexity, individual refiners in
these countries may have a specific need for relatively heavy, sour crude such as Iranian Heavy or
asphaltrich Doroud and Foroozan crudes. Some Mediterranean refiners are believed to have already
approachedSaudiArabiatoascertainwhethertheywouldbewillingtoboostsuppliestoreplaceimports
ofIranianHeavycrudeinparticular.Italianrefiners,whoproducebitumen,arelikelytohavethehardest
time replacing the heavier Iranian crudes. Russian Urals, Iraqi Basrah and Kirkuk, Venezuelan and
MexicanMayamayallbesuitablesubstitutes.
$/bbl
1
Urals
Differentials (NWE / Med) vs Brent
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Dec 10
Mar 11 Jun 11
Urals (NWE)
Sep 11 Dec 11
Urals (Med)
$/bbl
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Dec 10
Middle Eastern Crude Prices

vs. Dated Brent
Data source: Platts anlaysis
Mar 11
Jun 11
Oman-DB
Sep 11
Dec 11
Dubai-DB
Brentcrude'spremiumtoMiddleEastmarkerDubai,anindicatorforthepremiumoflightsweetgrades
overheavysoursupplies,narrowedtojust$1.40/bblinDecembercomparedto$1.65/bblinNovember
and $5.50/bbl in October. The narrowing of Brent's premium to Dubai has prompted traders to send
morecrudefromtheAtlanticBasintoAsia.
Spot prices for Middle East sour crudes were lower in December, in part due to milder than normal
winter weather. However, heavy sweet crudes, such as Indonesia Minas and Angola Dalia were in
demandduetoincreaseddirectburnatJapanesepowerplants.
$/bbl
$/bbl
Asian Crude Prices
140
130
Data Source: Platts analysis
120
110
100
90
Dec 10
40
Mar 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Malaysian Tapis
Indonesian Minas
Dec 11
Middle Eastern Crude Prices

UAE Assessed Dated prices & Oman
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
Murban
Qatar Marine
Sep 11
Dec 11
Umm Shaif
Oman
18 J ANUARY 2012
P RICES
Spot Product Prices

After showing unusual strength in November, middle distillate cracks spreads fell in December as
abovenormalwintertemperaturesintheNorthernHemispherepressuredprices.Gasolinecrackspreads
improved slightly, and naphtha markets recovered from the lows seen in November. Fuel oil crack
spreads continued to improve. Moving into January, markets were lifted by the news of Petroplus
closureofthreeEuropeanrefineries,removingabout340kb/dofrefiningcapacityfromthemarket.
AfteraverystrongNovember,middledistillatecracksspreadsfellmonthonmonthinDecemberinall
major regions as mild winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere pressured prices. In Europe, diesel
crack spreads fell by $3.39 5.22/bbl, although markets are still tight. Middle distillate stock levels far
below average continued to support robust average diesel crack spreads, which were $16.58/bbl and
$18.63/bbl for the month in NW Europe and the Mediterranean, respectively. Although the
backwardation(M1M2)narrowedfrom$0.99/bblinOctoberand$0.93/bblinNovemberto$0.50/bblin
December,itisstillunderminingstorageeconomics.
Gasoil/Heating Oil
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
$/bbl
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
NWE Gasoil 0.1%
Med Gasoil 0.1%
Sep 11
Dec 11
NYH No. 2
SP Gasoil 0.5%
$/bbl
Diesel Fuel
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
NWE ULSD 10ppm
Med ULSD 10ppm
Sep 11
Dec 11
NYH No. 2
NYH ULSD
The main reason behind the drop in crack spreads was the mild weather in December. Supplies were
increasedfurtherbothascargoesbookedintheautumnfromAsiaarrived,andasexportvolumesfrom
Russia increased. Russian export volumes are still lower than normal due to the new domestic
regulationswhichbandomesticuseofdieselcontainingabove500ppmsulphur.However,thenewsof
PetroplusclosingthreerefineriesinEurope,togetherwithaslightdrawinARAgasoilstocks,liftedcrack
spreadsinJanuary.
TheUSmarketwasalsoaffectedbythemildweather,andheatingoilcrackspreadstoWTIfell$8.69/bblin
NewYorkHarborandalesser$4/bblversusMarsintheUSGulf.TemperaturesinthetraditionalUSNorth
East heating oil marketwereabovenormal,withPADDIheating degreedays around16% below the10
yearaverageinDecember.WeakerEuropeanpriceslimitedarbitrageopportunities,althoughtotalmiddle
distillateexportsinDecemberof1mb/dremainedveryhigh.Nevertheless,USmiddledistillatestocksbuilt
inDecemberasstrongpricesinpreviousmonthshaveseenrefinersmaximiseoutput.
The Asian markets were tighter than in the Atlantic basin, both due to stronger demand and heavy
regional maintenance, and crack spreads fell a lesser $1.84/bbl on average in December. Fear of a
Chinese diesel demand surge continued to be supportive, together with middle distillate stocks in
Singaporebeingwellbelowaverage.
Fuel oil markets continued to improve in December. LSFO discounts narrowed by $1.462.11/bbl in
Europe and Asia monthonmonth, whereas HSFO discounts widened slightly by $0.551.20/bbl. The
wideningwasmorearesultofstrongercrudepricesthanweakeningoffueloilfundamentalsandHSFO
discounts narrowed considerably in the second half of the month. HSFO markets continue to be
supported by tightness in the bunker fuel market, as new shipping regulations lowered the global
18 J ANUARY 2012
41
P RICES
maximum sulphur content from 4.5% to 3.5%, taking effect from 1 January 2012, and refiners are still
adjustingtheirproductiontothenewregulation.LSFOmarketsweretightinAsia,partlyduetostrong
Japanese demand. In Europe, the market was supported by utility demand particularly from the
Mediterraneanregion.
$/bbl
$/bbl
Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil (1%)

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Dec 10
High-Sulphur Fuel Oil

5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Mar 11
Jun 11
NWE LSFO 1%
SP LSWR
Sep 11
-25
Dec 10
Dec 11
Med LSFO 1%
Mar 11
Jun 11
NWE HSFO 3.5%

SP HSFO 380 4%
Dec 11
Med HSFO 3.5%
Gasoline markets strengthened slightly in December, with most cracks spreads being back in positive
territoryonaverageforthemonthwiththeexceptionofUSGulfproductcrackstoLLS,whichwerestill
negative. Gasoline market fundamentals are still weak, with stock levels above average as refiners
increasesuppliesaftermaintenance,whereasdemandespeciallyintheUSismutedduetohighpricesat
thepump.TheclosureofSunocosMarcusHookrefineryinDecemberhoweverprovidedsomesupport
to prices throughout December, together with slightly more bullish sentiment based on better US
economicdata.
$/bbl
Sep 11
Gasoline
60
50
$/bbl
10
6
40
2
-2
30
20
-6
10
-10
-14
0
-10
Dec 10
Naphtha
Mar 11
Jun 11
NWE Unl 10ppm
Med Unl 10ppm
Sep 11 Dec 11
NYH Unl 93
SP Prem Unl
-18
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
NWE
SP
Med CIF
ME Gulf
Dec 11
TheEuropeangasolinemarketalsoimproved,openingthearbitragetotheUSEastCoastandreducing
someofEuropessupplysurplus.MarketswerefurthersupportedbyincreasedexportstoSaudiArabia,
whichhasrefinerymaintenancein1Q12,andNorthAfrica.Theannouncementoftheclosureofthreeof
PetroplusrefineriesinEuropegavefurthersupporttopricesattheendofthemonth,althoughnewsof
theremovaloffuelsubsidiesinNigeriaaddedsomeuncertaintyinthemarket.
Asiangasolinemarketsstrengthened,withgasolinecrackspreadstoDubaiincreasingby$3.57/bblover
themonth,toanaverageof$7.43/bblinDecember,around$5/bblmorethanBrentcracksinEurope.
TheAsianmarketfacesstrongdemand,andsupplieshavebeenlimitedbyregionalmaintenance.Atthe
sametime,ChinesegasolineexportswereloweredbyChinesestockpilingbeforetheLunarYearHoliday
attheendofJanuary.
NaphthamarketsturnedupsharplyinDecemberfromthelowsseeninNovember,butpricesretaineda
near$11/bbldiscounttocrudeinEuropeandan$8/bbldiscountinSingapore.Themainreasonsforthe
higher prices were increased buying from South Korea and Taiwan, where petrochemical producers
42
18 J ANUARY 2012
P RICES
needed to refill their stocks. Naphtha market fundamentals remain constrained, however, by poor
petrochemicalmarginsandweakdemandforplastics.
Freight
Tanker rates on all benchmark crude voyages strengthened over December and into earlyJanuary,
finishing2011onanupwardnoteandreversingtheirdire3Q11performance.Despiteaslowstart,rates
ontheMiddleEastGulfJapanVLCCroutefirmedfrommidDecemberonwards,buoyedbyhighAsian
demandandarushtofixcargoesbeforetheholidays.Bytheendofthemonth,MiddleEastfixingshad
againreachedarecordlevelbutplentifultonnageavailabilitymutedraterises.IntheSuezmaxmarket
thepicturewasrosier,andratesontheWestAfricaUSAtlanticcoasttradesurgedtoapproximately
$17/mtinearlyJanuary,ashealthydemandcombinedwithtighttonnagefollowingdelaysinBosphorus
transits.InNorthwestEuropestormdelayspropelledtheNorthSeaUKcoastAframaxroutetoamid
monthpeakof$9.50/mt,itshighestlevelsince1Q11.
US$/m t
28
US$/m t
35
Daily Crude Tanker Rates
24
30
20
25
16
20
12
15
10
Daily Product Tanker Rates
4
0
Jan 10
Data so urce: P latts analysis
Jul 10
Jan 11
8 0 k t N S e a - N W E ur
V LC C M E G ulf - J a p
Jul 11
0
Jan 10
Jan 12
13 0 k t W A f r- US A C
Data so urce: P latts analysis
Jul 10
Jan 11
3 0 K C a rib - US A C
75K M EG-Jap
Jul 11
Jan 12
2 5 K UKC - US A C
3 0 K S E A s ia - J a p
Clean product tanker markets exhibited a distinct geographical split, with Atlantic basin trades
outperformingthoseinAsianmarkets.InresponsetoextremelytightfundamentalsintheAtlanticBasin,
the transatlantic UK US Atlantic Coast route experienced a midmonth surge, breaching $32/mt by
lateDecember.OverthesameperiodtheCaribbeanUSAtlanticcoastvoyagealsobenefittedfromthe
US East Coasts thirst for imports, peaking at over $21/mt. However, as fundamentals eased, these
traditionallyvolatileratesbegantoweakeninthesecondweekofJanuary.Incontrast,thintradinginthe
East was unable to sustain recent gains on the 30 Kt Singapore Japan route, while the rise on the
MiddleEastGulfJapanroutewascappedbyplentifultonnage.
Floating Storage Falls Away.

Recent market conditions have seen the appeal of putting oil into shortterm floating storage diminish.
Although the redistribution of crude and products is still taking place using longtermmoored tankers in
regionsincludingoffshoreMalaysiaandtheBaltic,shorttermvolumeshavedeclinedwithcrudefallingfrom
a peak of 93.0 mb in May 2010 to 34.5 mb as of
Global crude floating storage
mb
endDecember 2011. Similarly, no products have been
(short-term and semi-permanent)
stored at sea since September 2011, a far cry from the 175
So urce: EA Gibso n, SSY and
97.7 mb peak in November 2009. The only current 155
IEA estimates
significant shortterm floating storage are unsold Iranian 135
crude cargoes (currently 32.3mb), stored for logistical,
115
rather than economic, reasons. As the role of floating
95
storage in the dynamics of oil and shipping markets has
75
diminished, shipbrokers have tended to cease publishing
55
thesedataandthereforewewillnolongerroutinelytrack
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
thesevolumesuntilanuptickinfloatingstorageleadsto
R a nge 2 0 0 6 - 10
2 0 10
renewedreportingonceagain.
2 0 11
A v e ra ge 2 0 0 6 - 10
18 J ANUARY 2012
43
R EFINING
REFINING
Summary
Globalrefinerycrudethroughputshavebeenreviseddownbyasharp250kb/dfor4Q11sincelast
monthsreport,asweakeconomicgrowthandwarmwinterweatherledglobaldemandtocontract
for the first time since 3Q09. Revisions stem from both OECD and nonOECD countries, with
preliminary data pointing to weakerthanexpected runs in Europe, Thailand and Argentina, among
others.At74.8mb/d,globalcruderunsstoodonly130kb/dhigherthanthesamequarterof2010.
1Q12globalcruderunestimateshavesimilarlybeenloweredsincelastmonthsreport,inlargepart
duetotheweakeningeconomicoutlookandrecentrefineryshutdownsinEurope.Globalthroughputs
arenowexpectedtoaverage74.9mb/d,170kb/dlessthaninourpreviousreport.
Refinery crude runs rose in all OECD regions in November, adding more than 1 mb/d in total, to
36.5mb/d. A winding down of autumn maintenance was behind the increase. Refinery profitability
remainedweakinallregions,andonlyNorthAmericamaintainedthroughputratesaboveyearearlier
levels.PreliminarydataforkeycountriesindicatestablethroughputsforDecember,andinparticular,
weakerthanexpectedEuropeanruns.
Refinery margins diverged in December, yet remained mostly in negative territory. Some
improvements came in European margins latemonth and early January, as product prices were
buoyedbynewsthatindependentrefinerPetropluswouldclosethreeofitsfiveEuropeanplants.US
West Coast margins saw sharp gains, of as much as $15.30/bbl from endNovember, and bounced
backintopositiveterritory,asCaliforniancrudediscountstoWTIwidenedsignificantly.
Independent refiner Petroplus became the latest victim of the European downstream crisis, as it
wasforcedtoshutthreeofitsfiveEuropeanplantsinearlyJanuarywhencreditorspulledtheplugon
itsrevolvingcreditlines.ThecompanyshutitsBelgian,SwissandFrenchplants,buthassofarbeen
abletokeepitsUKandGermanplantsrunning.The340kb/dofshutcapacitycomesinadditionto
LyondellBasels 105 kb/d Berre lEtang plant, which was mothballed in early January, and Repsols
220kb/dBilbaoplant,whichhaltedcrudeandgasolineunitsinJanuaryduetoweakmargins.
mb/d
77
Global Refining
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Annual growth
3.5
76
2.5
75
1.5
74
0.5
73
-0.5
72
-1.5
71
Jan
Global Throughputs vs. Demand
-2.5
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Jul
-3.5
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
1Q08
1Q09
Crude Runs
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
Oil Product Demand
Global Refinery Overview

GlobalrefinerymarketstookaturnfortheworseinDecember,andfullcostrefiningmarginsremained
negativeforalmostallconfigurationssurveyed.Themostrecentavailabledataindicatethat4Q11global
cruderunsaveragedasmuchas250kb/dlessthanpreviouslyforecastandthatglobaldemandactually
contracted in the quarter, for the first time since 3Q09. Part of the demand weakness follows from
44
18J ANUARY 2012
R EFINING
exceptionally strong demand a year earlier, particularly in China, and a much warmerthannormal
wintersofarthisyearinthenorthernhemisphere.Economicweaknessandhighoilpricescontinueto
weighonoilproductdemandindevelopednations,however,puttingfurtherpressureonrefiners.4Q11
runsarenowestimatedtohaveaveraged74.8 mb/d,practicallyflatfromayearearlier. Somegrowth
continued to come from China, the FSU, Latin America and other nonOECD countries, though Other
Asian runs were curtailed by maintenance and unscheduled outages and African runs limited by
continuedshutdownsinLibya.
RefinerymarginssawaslightimprovementattheendoftheDecemberandearlyJanuary,eventurning
positive for cracking plants in NW Europe and the Mediterranean on the news that Petroplus was
shuttingthreeofitsfiveEuropeanrefineriesdue toacreditsqueeze (seePetroplus LatestVictimof
EuropeanDownstreamMalaise).Thatdidnotpreventanotherrefinery,RepsolsBilbaoplantinSpain,
from shutting crude and gasoline producing units for at least two months starting in January on weak
demandandmargins.Repsoldescribedthesituationasunprecedentedinthehistoryofthecompany.
JanuaryalsosawthemothballingofLyondellBaselsBerrelEtangrefineryinFrance,thoughthecompany
isstilllookingforabuyertoavoidapermanentclosure.
Selected Refining Margins in Major Refining Centres

($ /bbl)
Monthly Average
NW Europe
Brent (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)
Nov 11
Dec 11
1.52
2.48
0.51
0.70
-0.26
0.27
Average for w eek ending:

16 Dec
23 Dec
30 Dec
06 Jan
13 Jan
-0.77
-0.43
-0.39
-0.11
-0.99
-0.19
0.87
2.23
1.61
3.94
2.30
3.13
Dec 11-No v 11
Brent (Hydroskimming)
-1.30
-1.15
-1.95
-0.80
-2.07
-2.59
-1.13
-0.40
0.64
Urals (Hydroskimming)
-2.99
-3.68
-4.53
-0.84
-4.95
-4.86
-2.92
-1.07
-0.96
0.39
0.93
-4.51
-5.01
-0.65
-0.98
-3.91
-5.94
-1.26
-1.46
-4.12
-6.73
-0.61
-0.48
-0.21
-0.79
-2.00
-2.19
-4.96
-7.45
-1.24
-1.27
-3.98
-6.43
0.49
0.53
-2.40
-5.01
1.71
1.45
-1.16
-3.91
1.29
1.24
-1.95
-3.83
-3.76
0.10
-1.52
0.47
1.92
-6.01
-0.42
-2.97
-1.39
-5.88
-6.31
-0.97
-3.18
-1.30
-7.17
-0.30
-0.55
-0.21
0.08
-1.29
-7.38
-2.00
-3.83
-2.03
-7.43
-6.55
0.26
-2.03
-0.30
-7.11
-4.03
0.94
-1.68
0.45
-6.06
-3.62
1.26
-1.24
0.32
-5.93
-2.99
3.70
0.19
1.51
-4.31
-0.36
-2.07
2.47
4.11
-5.48
-7.28
-3.58
-4.29
-1.24
1.49
-5.16
2.18
4.23
8.78
-1.58
6.47
-1.95
0.38
-7.28
0.84
1.41
5.16
-2.50
5.82
3.26
5.82
-0.83
6.82
2.03
7.53
-0.27
9.26
-1.69
5.91
-3.46
6.56
Mediterranean Es Sider (Cracking)

Urals (Cracking)
Es Sider (Hydroskimming)
US Gulf Coast
Change
Oct 11
Brent (Cracking)
LLS (Cracking)
Mars (Cracking)
Mars (Coking)
Maya (Coking)
US West Coast ANS (Cracking)

Kern (Cracking)
Oman (Cracking)
Kern (Coking)
Singapore
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Tapis (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
Tapis (Hydrocracking)
0.42
-8.18
2.34
-7.98
-1.55
-7.94
-0.71
-8.48
-2.01
-7.89
-0.50
-8.41
-0.46
0.05
0.20
0.07
-2.48
-7.41
-0.50
-7.54
-1.23
-7.82
0.31
-8.45
-1.06
-7.75
0.33
-8.51
0.78
-6.91
2.16
-7.62
0.70
-5.22
2.08
-5.77
China
Cabinda (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydrocracking)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
-2.61
0.71
0.35
2.88
2.52
-1.24
-1.74
-1.70
-2.16
-0.62
-0.01
-0.43
-2.29
-0.52
-0.66
1.23
1.31
-0.59
1.64
-0.03
-0.24
-0.99
-2.77
-0.52
-0.69
0.12
0.96
-1.51
0.80
0.14
1.31
0.39
-1.36
0.21
0.16
1.39
-0.58
0.52
-0.50
2.04
2.49
-0.60
0.46
-0.32
1.97
Fo r the purpo ses o f this repo rt, refining margins are calculated fo r vario us co mplexity co nfiguratio ns, each o ptimised fo r pro cessing the specific crude in a specific refining centre
o n a 'full-co st' basis. Co nsequently, repo rted margins sho uld be taken as an indicatio n, o r pro xy, o f changes in pro fitability fo r a given refining centre. No attempt is made to mo del
o r o therwise co mment upo n the relative eco no mics o f specific refineries running individual crude slates and pro ducing custo m pro duct sales, no r are these calculatio ns intended
to infer the marginal values o f crudes fo r pricing purpo ses.
*The China refinery margin calculatio n represents a mo del based o n spo t pro duct impo rt/expo rt parity, and do es no t reflect internal pricing regulatio ns.
So urces: IEA , P urvin & Gertz Inc.
18J ANUARY 2012
45
R EFINING
Across the Atlantic, on the US East Coast, Sunoco is equally looking to offload its Pennsylvania and
Marcus Hook refineries. The latter has already halted operations and both will reportedly shut
permanently if no buyer comes forward by June 2012. ConocoPhillips Trainer refinery is also idle and
scheduledtoshutpermanentlyifnobuyerisfound.
Global Refinery Crude Throughput1

Sep 11 3Q2011 Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11 4Q2011
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
1Q2012
Apr 12
North America
18.1
18.3
17.3
17.7
17.7
17.6
17.5
17.2
17.1
17.3
17.5
Europe
12.2
12.4
11.9
12.2
12.1
12.0
12.1
11.8
11.8
11.9
11.6
Pacific
6.4
6.4
6.2
6.6
6.7
6.5
6.9
6.9
6.4
6.7
6.3
36.7
37.2
35.5
36.5
36.4
36.1
36.5
35.9
35.3
35.9
35.4
FSU
6.3
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.3
Non-OECD Europe
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
China
8.8
8.8
8.7
9.2
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.2
9.4
Other Asia
8.7
8.9
8.5
9.1
9.2
8.9
9.3
9.1
9.1
9.2
9.0
Latin America
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
Middle East
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
6.0
5.8
5.9
5.8
Total OECD
Africa
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
Total Non-OECD
38.0
38.5
37.8
39.0
39.4
38.7
39.3
39.1
38.6
39.0
38.6
Total
74.7
75.6
73.2
75.4
75.8
74.8
75.9
75.0
73.9
74.9
74.0
1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast
AslightlymorepositiveoutlookisseenoutsideoftheOECD.RecentrunsinChina,India,Russia,Saudi
ArabiaandBrazilhavebeentouchingrecordhighs,onstillrelativelyrobustdomesticdemand.1Q12also
sees the commissioning of new capacity in Asia, in particular in China, where PetroChinas recently
completed Yinchuan refinery in Ningxia Province and Sinopecs Beihai plant, which started up in late
Decemberareexpectedtorampupruns.ThereturntonormalratesofShellsSingaporerefineryfrom
January will also add to product supplies. As a result, nonOECD crude runs are expected to grow
annually by 555 kb/d in 1Q12. Given the recent weakening outlook for the European economy and
demandprospects,the1Q12globalcruderunforecasthasneverthelessbeencutbycloseto170kb/d,
toaverage74.9mb/d,leavingglobalrunsonly310kb/daboveyearearlierlevels.
OECD Refinery Throughput

OECD refinery crude runs rose by more than 1 mb/d in November, to average 36.5 mb/d. Increases
stemmedfromallregionsandwereonly45kb/dshyofourpreviousforecast.FinalOctoberofficialdata
andpreliminaryweeklyandmonthlydataforDecember,however,werelowerthanearlierassumptions,
and throughput levels for these two months have been revised down by 275kb/d and 290 kb/d,
respectively. While the October adjustment was split across regions, December weakness stemmed
almost entirely from OECD Europe. Preliminary Euroilstock data for 16 European countries show
aggregate runs down slightly from Novembers levels, as opposed to an anticipated pickup in runs
towardstheendoftheyear,asmaintenancewounddownandpeakwinterdemandsetin.Inall,4Q11
OECDrunshavebeencutby205kb/dsincelastmonthsreport.
1Q12 expected throughputs have similarly been lowered by some 330kb/d, on the back of a sharply
reducedEuropeanoutlook.TheshutdownofPetroplusthreeEuropeanrefineriesandthereducedruns
attwoothersduetocreditproblems(seePetroplusLatestVictimofEuropeanDownstreamMalaise),
and a lower demand outlook than previously, add to an already weak market. Our US estimates have
beenliftedslightly,however,providingapartialoffset.
46
18J ANUARY 2012
R EFINING
Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries

Change from
Utilisation rate1
US2
Canada
Mexico
OECD North Am erica
France
Oct 11
Nov 10
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Nov 11
Nov 10
15.37
15.62
15.59
15.27
14.54
14.87
0.33
0.24
85.6%
83.6%
1.54
1.61
1.68
1.74
1.62
1.68
0.06
-0.02
91.6%
93.1%
1.14
1.16
1.24
1.10
1.15
1.18
0.03
0.19
71.3%
64.4%
18.05
18.39
18.51
18.11
17.32
17.73
0.41
0.40
85.0%
83.0%
1.35
1.34
1.37
1.33
1.32
1.38
0.07
-0.01
83.0%
75.3%
Germany
1.79
2.02
2.02
1.91
2.03
1.95
-0.07
-0.10
91.7%
86.0%
Italy
1.62
1.55
1.66
1.57
1.55
1.52
-0.03
-0.22
69.5%
76.3%
Netherlands
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.04
0.97
0.99
0.02
0.01
76.4%
75.5%
Spain
1.06
1.01
1.07
1.09
1.00
1.10
0.10
0.06
67.9%
74.1%
United Kingdom
1.45
1.50
1.51
1.47
1.39
1.45
0.07
0.06
80.4%
76.8%
Other OECD Europe
3.92
3.93
3.94
3.76
3.66
3.76
0.10
-0.33
76.2%
83.5%
12.23
12.39
12.61
12.18
11.92
12.16
0.24
-0.53
77.7%
79.7%
2.93
3.17
3.37
3.14
2.98
3.24
0.26
-0.25
70.5%
74.3%
OECD Europe
Japan
South Korea
2.52
2.52
2.43
2.50
2.63
2.64
0.01
0.10
96.4%
92.7%
Other OECD Pacific
0.77
0.70
0.74
0.73
0.63
0.72
0.09
-0.02
76.9%
78.9%
6.21
6.38
6.54
6.37
6.24
6.59
0.35
-0.17
79.8%
80.8%
36.49
37.16
37.66
36.66
35.48
36.48
1.01
-0.29
81.5%
81.4%
OECD Pacific
OECD Total
1 Expressed as a percentage, based o n crude thro ughput and current o perable refining capacity
2 US50
mb/d
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
Jan
OECD Total
OECD North America
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Crude Throughput
19
18
17
16
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
15
Jan
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
2012 est.
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
2012 est.
OECDNorthAmericancruderunsaveraged17.7mb/dinNovember,400kb/daboveboththisOctobers
andNovember2010levels.IncreasescamemostlyfromtheUS,whererunsroseinallregions,exceptfor
the East Coast, despite poor margins and a narrowing of the WTIBrent discount. Lower maintenance
activitywasmostlyresponsiblefortheincrease.
Preliminary weekly data show US runs slightly lower in December (90 kb/d), but mostly in line with
previous estimates. Runs fell sharply on the East Coast (150 kb/d) to only 60% utilisation. Sunoco
announcedon1Decemberthatitwouldimmediatelyshutits178kb/dMarcusHookrefinery,aheadof
anearlierJuly2012deadlineduetodeterioratingmarketconditions.TheMarcusHookplant,aswellas
ConocoPhillips185kb/dTrainerrefinerywhichwasidledinSeptember,onlyrunexpensiveBrentlinked
crudes and have seen profits slump. Also on the East Coast, PBF Energy announced it plans to invest
$1billionoverthenextthreeyearstobuildahydrocrackerandhydrogenplantatits190kb/dDelaware
refinery. The project will allow the plant to process heavy crude oil while increasing production of
distillates,inparticularproducinglargevolumesofULSD,andthusimproveitscompetitiveness.
18J ANUARY 2012
47
R EFINING
m b/d
17
US Weekly Refinery Throughput
m b/d
16
1.6
16
1.4
15
1.2
15
1.0
14
0.8
Source: EIA
14
Jan
US PADD 1 Refinery Throughputs
1.8
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
Source: EIA
0.6
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
US West Coast runs rebounded in December, gaining 120 kb/d on average, after several months of
exceptionally weak activity. Regional refining margins saw significant improvements in the month,
gaining more than $15/bbl for Kern cracking from endNovember to regain positive territory on a
monthlybasisforthefirsttimesinceAugust.IndependentrefinerandmarketerTesoro,whichoperates
fiverefineriesontheWestCoastwithcombinedcapacityof540kb/d,announcedinJanuaryitexpectsto
report a fourth quarter net loss of between $0.55 and $0.80 per share due to the extremely weak
marginenvironmentinCaliforniaandthecollapseoftheWTItoBrentcrudeoilspread.Thecompany
citedunusuallyhighpricesforCaliforniacrudeoilrelativetolightsweetcrudeoilashavinganegative
impact.HeavyCaliforniancrudeoiltradedata$1/bbldiscountrelativetoBrentinthequartercompared
withadiscountof$7/bblinthefourthquarterof2010and$12/bblin3Q11.Inthelastweekof2011,
California market conditions improved and the discount of heavy Californian crude widened to nearly
$5/bbl, lifting refinery margins in turn. Margins were also boosted by loftier gasoline prices, as both
TesoroandValerowereplanningworktotheirrespectiveplantsinWilmington,California.
mb/d
3.0
m b/d
3.7
2.8
3.5
2.6
3.3
2.4
3.1
2.9
2.2
Source: EIA
Source: EIA
2.0
Jan
Mar
2010
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
2.7
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
The US Gulf Coast also saw runs falling in December (130 kb/d) on persistently weak economics.
Marginsimprovedsomewhattowardstheendofthemonthhowever,andeventurnedpositiveforLLS
crackingandMarscokingconfigurations.GulfCoastruns,andsubsequentlyUSruns,neverthelesslagged
2010forthefirsttimesinceJuly,bysome340kb/dand270kb/drespectively.
Midwest runs, on the other hand, continued to enjoy high throughputs and healthy profits despite a
narrowing WTIBrent discount. ConocoPhillips completed the startup of its expanded Wood River
RefineryinIllinoisinDecember.The$3.8billionexpansionadded50kb/dofcrudedistillationcapacity
andacokingunit,boostingtheplantsabilitytoprocessCanadianheavycrude.
ThebiggestchangestotheoutlookthismonthcomefromOECDEurope.WhileEuropeancruderunsfor
November were largely in line with forecast, both final October data and preliminary December data
48
18J ANUARY 2012
R EFINING
cameinlower(80kb/dand300kb/drespectively).Totalregionalthroughputswereupby240kb/din
November,withgainsinSpain(+100kb/d),Sweden(+75kb/d)France(+65kb/d),UK(+65kb/d)partly
offsetbylowerrunsinGermanyandBelgium.Indeed,Belgianrunsfellto460kb/d,their lowestsince
November2006,asTotalsAntwerprefinerywaspartlyclosedformaintenance.
Albeitpreliminary,EuroilstockdataforDecembershowEU15+Norwaycruderunsdown40kb/dfrom
November,leadingtofurtherdownwardrevisionsforOECDEurope.Europeancruderunsarenowseen
averagingonly12.1mb/dinDecember,300kb/dlessthanpreviouslyexpected.Weakdemand,inpart
duetoamildwinter,wascontributingtothecounterseasonaldeclineinrunsattheendoftheyear.The
1Q12forecasthasequallybeenloweredbysome370kb/dastheoutlookfortheregionseconomiesand
oilproductdemandhasdeteriorated.
Further refinery closures also add to the weaker activity outlook. While the mothballing of
LyondellBasels refinery in France was already included in our forecast from early January, the
announcement that Repsols Bilbao refinery will shut one crude unit for at least two months and a
gasolineproducingunit(FCC)forJanuaryduetopooreconomicsandtherecentshutdownsofPetroplus
three European plants, further drag down forecasted rates. Repsol described the measure as
unprecedented in the history of the company, due to the drastic decline in margins in the last three
months and the fall in demand that has been occurring throughout the year 2011. The most recent
closureshadapositiveimpactonmargins,however,andcouldthusenticeotherrefinerstoincreaseruns
tooffsetlostvolumes.
OECD Europe
mb/d
$/bbl
6
Crude Throughput
14.4
NWE Margins
13.9
13.4
12.9
-2
12.4
-4
11.9
-6
11.4
Jan
-8
Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
2012 est.
Source: Purvin & Gertz
Urals (Cracking)
Brent (Cracking)
Brent (Hydroskimming)
Petroplus Latest Victim of European Downstream Malaise

IndependentSwissrefininggroupPetroplusbecamethelatestandthesinglelargestvictimoftheEuropean
downstreamindustrysongoingeconomicwoes.Thecompanywasforcedtosuspendoperationsatthreeof
its five remaining plants in January, due to limited
credit availability. If the shutdowns are made kb/d
OECD Refinery Closures
permanent, it would take total European capacity 1,200
rationalisation since the 2008 economic downturn to 1,000
1.35mb/d, to 15.0mb/d by end2012 (net reductions
800
are lower due to some expansions notably in Poland,
600
SpainandGreece).Globalshutdownswouldamountto
2.9mb/d,notcountingplantsscheduledtoshutifnot
400
soldortemporarilyidledduetopooreconomics.While
200
such a scenario would be disastrous for the company,
0
independent refining, Petroplus employees and the
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
localeconomies,itcouldprovideawelcomerespiteto
NorthAmerica Europe Pacific Petroplus
those refineries still operating in this increasingly
difficultenvironment.
18J ANUARY 2012
49
R EFINING
Petroplus Latest Victim of European Downstream Malaise (continued)

On30December2011,PetroplusHoldingsannouncedthatitwouldcommencetemporaryshutdownsofits
PetitCouronne,AntwerpandCressierrefineries,givenlimitedcreditavailabilityandtheeconomicclimate
in Europe. The restart of the plants will depend on economic conditions and credit availability. The
statement came shortly after a group of lenders, including BNP Paribas, Natixis, Credit Suisse, Socit
Gnrale, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank,
Petroplus' Refinery Portfolio
pulled the plug on the uncommitted $1.05
Refinery
Capacity
Status
billion portion of Petroplus $2.01 billion
Coryton, UK
220 kb/d
Running at reduced rates
revolving credit facility (RCF). The RCF was
Petit Couronne, France
161 kb/d
Temporary shutdow n
criticaltothecompanysabilitytobuycrudeoil.
Ingolstadt, Germany
110 kb/d
Running at reduced rates
Petroplusisthelargestindependentrefinerand Antw erp, Belgium

108 kb/d
Temporary shutdow n
marketerofrefinedoilproductsinEurope.Since Cressier, Sw itzerland
68 kb/d
Temporary shutdow n
the economic downturn, the company already
85 kb/d
Converted to oil terminal 2Q11
converted its Teesside plant in the UK in 2Q09 Reichstett, France
Teesside,
UK
100
kb/d
Converted
to oil terminal 2Q09
and its French Reichstett plant in 2Q11 to oil
terminals.TherecentshutdownsofthecompanysFrench,BelgianandSwissrefineriesbringthecompanys
shutdownssince2009to515kb/d,leavingonly330kb/dofcapacityattwosites.Petroplusannouncedon
11 January that it had reached a temporary agreement with lenders under the revolving credit facility to
allow it to maintain operations at the two remaining plants. The company also announced it was in
negotiationswithathirdpartyforthesupplyofcrudeandfeedstockforthosetworefineries.
In the shortrun the temporary closures, while only reducing throughputs by some 240kb/d (the rate at
whichthethreeplantsranoverthefirstninemonthsof2011),providedawelcomeboosttoapersistently
weak margin environment in Europe and the Atlantic Basin. Following the news, European benchmark
margins gained on average $3.30/bbl. If the plants are shut permanently, it would help to reduce the
capacity overhang in the Atlantic Basin and could provide longerlasting support to margins. Some argue
that the closures lower regional crude demand and reduce product availability, in turn increasing the
regionsimportrequirementsfordiesel.GivencurrentlylowoperatingratesatEuropeanrefiners,itseems
there is still enough spare distillation capacity in the region to make up the difference. Several plants
continuetorunatreducedrates,orareshutaltogetherduetoweakmargins.
ItremainstobeseeniftheshutdownprovidesenoughsupporttoenticeEuropeanrefinerstoincreaseruns
and keep regional product supplies stable. A looming embargo on Iranian crude and potentially reduced
gasoline demand from Nigeria (one of the few outlets for surplus European gasoline) given the recent
dismantlingofsubsidiescouldstillprovidefurtherchallengesahead.
OECDPacificcruderunsaveraged6.6mb/dinNovember,up350kb/dfromOctoberbut165kb/dbelow
thesamemonthayearearlier.PreliminarydatafromthePetroleumAssociationofJapanshowJapanese
runs increasing seasonally in December on the completion of autumn maintenance. The increase was
nevertheless slightly less than anticipated (by 40 kb/d). The outlook for 1Q12 is largely unchanged,
seeingregionalrunsincreasingto6.7mb/d,beforespringmaintenancecutsrunsin2Q12.BothIdemitsu
andJXNipponhaveannouncedplanstoprocesslesscrudeyearonyearovertheJanuaryMarchperiod
duetostructurallydecliningdemandandcapacitystillofflinesincetheMarch2011earthquake.
OECD Pacific
mb/d
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
Jan
Japan Weekly Refinery Throughput
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Source: PAJ, IEA est imates
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
50
m b/d
5.0
Crude Throughput
Jul
Sep
Nov
2.5
Jan
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 (est.)
2012 est.
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
Oct
5-yr Average
2010
2011
18J ANUARY 2012
R EFINING
Non-OECD Refinery Throughput

NonOECDrefinerycruderunshavebeenreviseddownby50kb/dforthefourthquarterof2011,with
lower runs seen in a number of regions. In particular, lowerthanexpected October readings for
Thailand, where operations were disrupted by floods and refinery maintenance, were offset by higher
runs in Russia, India and Singapore in November (carried forward to December). Russian crude
throughputs in December were in line with expectations, hovering around the 5.2 mb/d mark, though
recenthistoricaldatahasbeenrevisedhighertoadjustfortherecentlycommissionedTanekorefinery,
notincludedinMinistrydata.1Q12estimateshavebeenraised,largelyasthehigherRussianfiguresfeed
through the forecast. The announcement of further security check shutdowns at Mailiao in Taiwan in
February, lower estimates for Yemen and China provide a partial offset. NonOECD runs are now
estimatedat38.7mb/dand39.0mb/dfor4Q11and1Q12,respectively.
China
Non-OECD Total
mb/d
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
Jan
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
Jan
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 est.
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 est.
As highlighted in last months report, Chinese crude runs reached a record high of 9.2mb/d in
November. The near0.5 mb/d monthly increase followed stronger runs from both Sinopec and
PetroChinatorefilldepletedinventoriesandavoiddomesticshortagesamidseasonallyhigherdemand.
Another recordhigh was reached in December, when total runs reach 9.24mb/d. Company plans for
JanuaryindicaterunsstayedatelevatedlevelsaheadoftheNewYearholidays,startingon23January,
and the spring ploughing season. Some maintenance is scheduled for February and March, however,
leadingexpectedthroughputstodipslightlyinthesemonths.
BothPetroChinaandSinopechaveannouncedplanstoincreaserunsin2012comparedto2011,by6.0%
and3.8%respectively.PetroChinaisreportedlyplanning toprocess3.04mb/dofcrudein 2012,while
Sinopecplanstoprocess4.53mb/donaverage.PetroChinawilladda100kb/dcrudeunitatitsHohhot
Petrochemicalplantandcompletea200kb/drefineryinPengzhoubytheendoftheyearorearly2013.
Furtherincreasesareexpectedtocomefromtherecentlycompleted100kb/dadditionatPetroChinas
YinchuanrefineryinNingxiaProvince.HigherrunsatDalian,whichwashitbyafireinJulyoflastyear,
willalsoaddtovolumes.Sinopecsgrowthisexpectedtocomefromthe100kb/dBeihairefinerythat
became operational in early January. Other Sinopec projects expected to become operational later in
2012includeShijiazhuang(+60kb/d),Anqing(70kb/d)andJinling(90kb/d).
Other Asian throughput estimates are largely unchanged for 4Q11 and 1Q12, at 8.9mb/d and
9.2mb/d,respectively.Indianrefinerycruderunssurged400kb/dinNovemberafterseveralmonthsof
reducedrunsduetomaintenance.Totalruns,adjustingofficialstatisticshighertoaccountforJamnagars
580kb/dexportrefineryandtherecentlycommissioned120kb/dBinarefinerycurrentlynotincluded,
areestimatedtohaveaveraged4.2mb/dinthemonth,morethan10%higherthanayearearlierwhen
Reliance underwent maintenance. The monthly increase stemmed from the return of Essars Vadinar
refineryfrommaintenance.Runsthereroseby250kb/d,to309kb/d.Higherrunswerealsorecorded
fromIndianOilCorporationsMathuraplant,upfrom72kb/dinOctoberto183kb/dinNovemberand
MRPLsMangaloreplant,up60kb/dto257kb/dinNovember.Reliancewillshuta290kb/dcrudeunit
18J ANUARY 2012
51
R EFINING
atits580kb/dJamnagarexportrefineryfrommidFebruaryforthreeweeksofmaintenance.Thiswillbe
thefirstscheduledturnaroundattheplantsinceitwascommissionedin2008.
Other Asia
mb/d
9.5
Crude Throughput
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
Jan
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
India
mb/d
Sep
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
2008
2010
2011
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Crude Throughput
Nov
Jan
2009
2011 est.
2012 est.
ShellsSingaporerefineryisthoughttohaveregainedfullproductionbyend2011.Runsarebelievedto
haverecoveredto1.2mb/dinNovember,upfrom1.08mb/dinOctober.The550kb/drefinery,which
completely shut in late September following a fire, was progressively restarted over October and
November,topreshutdownratesassessedaround400kb/d,or70%utilisation.
ThailandrefineryrunscameinweakerthanexpectedinOctober,averagingonly860kb/d,comparedto
970 kb/d a year earlier and 910 kb/d in September. The lower runs are likely due to the devastating
floodsthathaveplaguedthecountrysinceJuly,andinapossiblyrelatedmove,severalplantsunderwent
maintenance in October. Star Petroleum Refining Co, a joint venture of Chevron and Thailand's top
energy company, PTT, partially shut its 145 kb/d refinery in Rayong from midSeptember for a month,
whileEssoshutits160kb/drefineryinSrirachafortwomonthsfrom16September.IRPCPclmeanwhile
wasplanningmajormaintenanceatits215kb/dplantfor40daysfrommidNovember.
Russiancruderunsbouncedbackabove5.2mb/dinNovember,afterseveralmonthsofmaintenance
reducedthroughputs.At5.24mb/d,throughputswere120kb/dhigherthanthepreviousyear,inlarge
partduetothestartupofTatneftsTanekorefineryearlierthisyear.Infact,thisrefineryisnotincluded
in Ministry data, so we have adjusted for this for recent months. The monthly increase of 90 kb/d
followedareturnofRosneftsSyrzan,AngarskandSalavatplantsfrommaintenance,whiletheMoscow
refinery cut runs by 90 kb/d amid maintenance. Preliminary data show December runs steady, and
mostlyinlinewithourpreviousforecast.
mb/d
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
Jan
FSU
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
mb/d
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
Jan
Crude Throughput
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Russia
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011 est.
2012 est.
The restart of Libyas largest refinery, the 220 kb/d Ras Lanuf plant, has been delayed by at least a
month,fromanearlierexpectedstartupdateofend2011.WenowassumetheRasLanufplanttobe
operationalbymidFebruary,withgradualrampuptowardsfullratesbymidMarch,thoughthiscould
easilyslipfurther.Thecountrysotherrefinerieshavereportedlyrestored160kb/dofcapacity.
52
18J ANUARY 2012
R EFINING
InLatinAmerica,Brazilsrefineryrunsheldsteadyataround1.96mb/dinNovember,ascrudeoutput
hitarecordhigh.Petrobrasisexpectedtoadd400kb/dofcapacitythroughtwograssrootsprojectsin
2014.Priortothis,productimportsareexpectedtoincreasetomeetrobustdemandgrowth.Uruguays
solerefineryclosedformaintenancefromearlySeptemberthroughDecember.The50kb/dAncapplant
started work to bring two desulphurisation units into operation by March or April 2012, allowing the
productionoflowsulphurgasoline. Meanwhile,Hovensacompletedmaintenanceworkatits350kb/d
StCroix refinery in the US Virgin Islands in early December. According to a company spokesman, the
refinerycontinuedtorunatthenecessaryratestomeetcustomercommitmentsduringthework.
Brazil
mb/d
2.0
Crude Throughput
Latin America
mb/d
5.8
1.9
5.6
1.8
5.4
1.7
5.2
Crude Throughput
5.0
1.6
4.8
1.5
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
2008
2010
2011
Nov
Jan
4.6
Jan
2009
2011 est.
2012 est.
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
According to JODI data, Saudi Arabian refinery runs hit 2 mb/d in October, the highest on record.
Comparedtodomesticdistillationcapacityof2.1mb/d,thisrepresentsamonthlyincreaseof240kb/d
andautilisationrateof96%.AlsointheKingdom,AramcoisreportedlytoshutsomeunitsatitsRiyadh
refineryinJanuaryformaintenanceandsomeunitsatitsRasTanurarefineryinMarchandpossiblyinto
April.The550kb/dRasTanuraplantincludesacondensatesplitter,whichwillalsoreportedlyshutdown
intheperiod.
In Kuwait, KNPC is planning to partially shut its Mina AlAhmadi refinery in January for maintenance
work. CDU capacity of around 250 kb/d will reportedly be offline for anywhere between 2035 days.
Israels Haifa refinery was partially shut over NovDec, hitting Mediterranean diesel supplies. Yemens
AdenrefineryremainedshutasofearlyJanuary,duetolackofcrudesuppliesfollowingsabotagetokey
pipelines.Weassumetheplanttobeofflineuntil2Q12oruntilthesecuritysituationimproves.Iraqiruns
fell to only 436 kb/d in October, from 610 kb/d the month before, though no reports of outages or
maintenancehasbeenfound.
Middle East
Crude Throughput
mb/d
6.5
6.3
2.0
6.1
1.8
5.9
Saudi Arabia
mb/d
2.2
Crude Throughput
1.6
5.7
5.5
Jan
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
1.4
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011 est.
2012 est.
TheOECDRefineryYieldsTableisavailableintheTablesSectionontheOMRWebsite,asTable16.
18J ANUARY 2012
53
T ABLES
TABLES
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Table 1 - World Oil Supply and Demand

2008 2009
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific
24.2 23.3
15.4 14.7
8.1
7.7
23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8

14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6
8.2 7.3 7.6
8.1
7.8
23.8 23.3 23.5 23.1 23.4

14.2 14.1 14.7 14.3 14.3
8.3 7.1 7.7
8.3
7.9
23.4 23.1 23.5 23.3 23.3

13.9 13.8 14.5 14.3 14.1
8.5 7.4 7.5
8.1
7.9
Total OECD
47.6 45.6
46.0 45.3 46.6 46.7 46.2
46.3 44.5 45.9 45.7 45.6
45.8 44.3 45.5 45.6 45.3
4.2
4.2
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.1
9.7 10.1
6.0
6.0
7.3
7.5
3.3
3.3
4.4 4.3 4.6

4.6
4.5
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7
8.6 9.1 8.9
9.7
9.1
10.4 10.5 10.1 10.6 10.4
6.1 6.3 6.5
6.4
6.3
7.4 7.8 8.3
7.7
7.8
3.3 3.4 3.4
3.4
3.4
4.5 4.6 4.8

4.9
4.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7
9.5 9.5 9.3
9.7
9.5
10.7 10.7 10.4 10.8 10.6
6.3 6.5 6.6
6.5
6.5
7.6 8.0 8.5
7.9
8.0
3.4 3.3 3.3
3.4
3.3
4.6 4.6 4.8

4.9
4.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7
9.7 9.9 9.8 10.2
9.9
10.9 11.0 10.7 11.2 11.0
6.5 6.6 6.8
6.7
6.7
7.9 8.3 8.7
8.1
8.3
3.4 3.5 3.5
3.5
3.5
Total Non-OECD
38.9 39.9
40.8 42.2 42.4 43.0 42.1
42.7 43.4 43.6 43.9 43.4
43.7 44.7 45.1 45.5 44.8
86.6 85.6
86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8 88.3
89.0 87.9 89.5 89.5 89.0
89.5 89.0 90.7 91.1 90.0
Europe
Pacific
13.3 13.6
4.8
4.5
0.6
0.7
14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1

4.5 4.2 3.8
4.2
4.2
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.6
0.6
14.4 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.5

4.1 3.8 3.6
4.0
3.9
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.6
0.5
14.8 14.6 14.6 14.9 14.7

4.1 3.8 3.7
4.0
3.9
0.6 0.6 0.7
0.7
0.7
Total OECD
18.7 18.8
19.1 18.8 18.5 19.1 18.9
19.0 18.6 18.6 19.4 18.9
19.5 19.1 19.0 19.5 19.3
12.8 13.3
0.1
0.1
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
1.7
1.7
2.6
2.6
28.4 29.1
13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5

0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
4.0 4.1 4.1
4.2
4.1
3.7 3.7 3.7
3.7
3.7
4.0 4.1 4.1
4.1
4.1
1.8 1.7 1.7
1.7
1.7
2.5 2.5 2.5
2.5
2.5
29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.8
13.6 13.6 13.5 13.7 13.6

0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
4.2 4.2 4.1
4.1
4.1
3.6 3.5 3.5
3.5
3.5
4.2 4.2 4.2
4.3
4.2
1.8 1.6 1.6
1.5
1.6
2.5 2.5 2.5
2.5
2.5
30.1 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8
13.8 13.9 13.7 13.9 13.8

0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
4.2 4.2 4.2
4.3
4.2
3.6 3.5 3.5
3.5
3.5
4.3 4.4 4.4
4.5
4.4
1.5 1.5 1.6
1.6
1.5
2.6 2.6 2.6
2.6
2.6
30.1 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Total Demand
OECD SUPPLY
North America4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia2
Latin America2,4
Middle East
Africa2
Total Non-OECD
Processing Gains3
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
Global Biofuels4
1.4
1.6
1.4
2.0
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.0
1.9
Total Non-OPEC2
50.6 51.5
52.2 52.6 52.6 53.1 52.6
52.7 52.3 52.5 53.1 52.7
53.5 53.5 53.6 54.2 53.7
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition2
49.6 51.5
52.2 52.6 52.6 53.1 52.6
52.7 52.3 52.5 53.1 52.7
53.5 53.5 53.6 54.2 53.7
31.6 29.1
4.5
4.9
36.2 34.1
29.3 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5

5.2 5.2 5.5
5.6
5.4
34.5 34.5 35.1 35.2 34.8
30.0 29.5 29.9 30.5 30.0

5.7 5.7 5.8
5.9
5.8
35.8 35.2 35.7 36.4 35.8
37.2 34.1
34.5 34.5 35.1 35.2 34.8
35.8 35.2 35.7 36.4 35.8
86.7 85.6
86.7 87.1 87.8 88.3 87.5
88.5 87.5 88.3 89.6 88.4
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
OPEC
Crude5
NGLs
Total OPEC2
OPEC: Historical Composition2
6
Total Supply
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

Reported OECD
Industry
0.3 -0.1
Government
0.0
0.1
Total
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit
Miscellaneous to balance7
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.9
0.1
0.5
0.0
6.2
6.2
6.5
6.6
6.4
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.9
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.0
-0.2
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-1.3
-0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-1.4
-0.8
-0.5
-0.4
-1.3
0.1
-0.5
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.9
31.4 29.1
31.3 28.8
29.5 29.7 31.0 31.1 30.3

29.1 28.4 30.1 30.7 29.6
30.5 29.9 31.2 30.5 30.5

30.3 29.2 30.7 30.0 30.0
29.8 29.3 30.6 30.3 30.0

29.4 28.8 30.1 29.8 29.5
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
9 Equals the "Call on OPEC + Stock Ch." with "Miscellaneous to balance" added for historical periods and with an average of "Miscellaneous to balance" for the most recent 8 quarters added for forecast periods.
54
18 J ANUARY 2012
T ABLES
Table 1A
Table 1a - WORLD
World Oil
ChangesFROM
fromLAST
LastMONTH'S
MonthsTABLE
Table11
OILSupply
SUPPLY and
AND Demand:
DEMAND: CHANGES
2008 2009
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-
-0.1
-0.1
-
-0.2
-
-0.1
-
Total OECD
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-
0.1
-
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
0.1
-
-0.1
-
Total Non-OECD
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
Total Demand
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
Total OECD
0.1
Total Non-OECD
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-
Processing Gains
Global Biofuels
Total Non-OPEC
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
Non-OPEC: historical composition
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
Crude
NGLs
Total OPEC
OPEC: historical composition
Total Supply
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

REPORTED OECD
Industry
Government
-
Total
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit

Miscellaneous to balance
-0.1
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
-0.1
0.1
-
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
OECD SUPPLY
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
OPEC
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.
When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.
18 J ANUARY 2012
55
T ABLES
Table 2
Table 2 - Summary of Global Oil Demand
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
2009
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
2010
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
2011
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
2012
Demand (mb/d)
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
Asia
Middle East
Latin America
FSU
Africa
Europe
Total Non-OECD
World
23.29
14.66
7.69
45.64
18.19
7.53
5.99
4.18
3.33
0.71
39.93
85.57
23.41
14.32
8.23
45.95
18.99
7.42
6.05
4.38
3.33
0.67
40.84
86.80
23.69
14.26
7.34
45.29
19.60
7.83
6.30
4.33
3.43
0.68
42.18
87.47
24.07
14.93
7.62
46.62
19.06
8.29
6.47
4.56
3.38
0.68
42.44
89.06
23.85
14.83
8.07
46.75
20.21
7.72
6.39
4.58
3.43
0.70
43.03
89.78
23.76
14.58
7.82
46.16
19.47
7.82
6.31
4.46
3.39
0.68
42.13
88.29
23.76
14.18
8.35
46.29
20.24
7.64
6.27
4.45
3.40
0.67
42.67
88.96
23.29
14.11
7.11
44.52
20.23
8.02
6.46
4.62
3.33
0.69
43.35
87.87
23.54
14.69
7.68
45.91
19.68
8.49
6.64
4.83
3.26
0.72
43.61
89.53
23.11
14.26
8.28
45.65
20.44
7.92
6.51
4.92
3.37
0.72
43.87
89.53
23.43
14.31
7.85
45.59
20.14
8.02
6.47
4.70
3.34
0.70
43.38
88.97
23.37
13.86
8.53
45.77
20.65
7.85
6.46
4.60
3.44
0.68
43.69
89.45
23.08
13.81
7.37
44.26
20.97
8.29
6.65
4.59
3.50
0.70
44.70
88.96
23.50
14.51
7.54
45.55
20.57
8.73
6.83
4.84
3.46
0.72
45.15
90.70
23.27
14.26
8.07
45.60
21.38
8.15
6.75
4.94
3.51
0.72
45.45
91.05
23.31
14.11
7.88
45.30
20.90
8.26
6.67
4.74
3.48
0.71
44.75
90.05
of which: US50
Europe 5*
China
Japan
India
Russia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Total
18.77
8.98
8.06
4.39
3.26
3.03
2.54
2.47
2.16
2.19
2.07
2.11
60.03
18.87
8.87
8.63
4.82
3.38
3.16
2.60
2.33
2.15
2.31
2.07
2.10
61.30
19.15
8.75
9.06
4.07
3.45
3.17
2.71
2.73
2.17
2.18
2.10
2.08
61.61
19.47
9.15
8.92
4.36
3.13
3.41
2.82
3.02
2.26
2.16
2.05
2.08
62.84
19.23
9.01
9.66
4.57
3.38
3.36
2.80
2.54
2.25
2.35
2.07
2.09
63.31
19.18
8.95
9.07
4.45
3.34
3.28
2.73
2.66
2.21
2.25
2.07
2.09
62.27
19.17
8.70
9.54
4.86
3.50
3.20
2.69
2.49
2.25
2.36
2.03
2.09
62.86
18.82
8.57
9.52
3.92
3.57
3.43
2.76
2.89
2.15
2.04
2.05
2.05
61.78
18.89
8.89
9.30
4.32
3.26
3.64
2.87
3.15
2.28
2.21
2.09
2.05
62.94
18.51
8.65
9.66
4.82
3.53
3.70
2.83
2.66
2.22
2.30
2.08
2.06
63.02
18.84
8.70
9.50
4.48
3.46
3.50
2.79
2.80
2.22
2.23
2.06
2.06
62.65
18.82
8.51
9.70
5.08
3.61
3.33
2.74
2.59
2.21
2.31
2.03
2.11
63.06
18.63
8.37
9.94
4.15
3.67
3.39
2.81
3.00
2.12
2.08
2.04
2.09
62.30
18.90
8.79
9.82
4.24
3.37
3.64
2.93
3.24
2.24
2.14
2.07
2.08
63.46
18.68
8.63
10.19
4.60
3.64
3.69
2.93
2.77
2.21
2.30
2.07
2.08
63.80
18.76
8.58
9.91
4.52
3.57
3.51
2.85
2.90
2.19
2.21
2.05
2.09
63.16
% of World
70.2%
70.6%
70.4%
70.6%
70.5%
70.5%
70.7%
70.3%
70.3%
70.4%
70.4%
70.5%
70.0%
70.0%
70.1%
70.1%
1.5
-1.0
1.5
0.7
6.6
2.9
3.6
1.6
2.1
-0.2
4.5
2.5
-1.7
-1.0
-3.1
-1.7
3.2
2.5
2.5
6.7
-3.0
1.8
2.8
0.5
-2.2
-1.6
0.8
-1.5
3.2
2.4
2.7
5.8
-3.5
5.2
2.8
0.5
-3.1
-3.8
2.6
-2.3
1.1
2.6
1.9
7.4
-1.8
2.5
2.0
-0.3
-1.4
-1.9
0.5
-1.2
3.5
2.6
2.7
5.4
-1.6
2.4
3.0
0.8
-1.6
-2.3
2.2
-1.1
2.1
2.8
2.9
3.3
1.3
2.0
2.4
0.6
-0.9
-2.1
3.6
-0.6
3.7
3.3
2.9
-0.5
5.0
1.6
3.1
1.2
-0.2
-1.2
-1.9
-0.8
4.5
2.8
2.8
0.4
6.1
0.4
3.5
1.3
0.7
0.0
-2.5
-0.1
4.6
3.0
3.6
0.5
4.0
0.6
3.6
1.7
-0.5
-1.4
0.3
-0.7
3.7
3.0
3.0
0.9
4.1
1.1
3.2
1.2
0.35
-0.14
0.12
0.33
1.25
0.22
0.22
0.07
0.07
0.00
1.83
2.16
-0.40
-0.15
-0.23
-0.77
0.62
0.20
0.16
0.29
-0.10
0.01
1.17
0.40
-0.53
-0.24
0.06
-0.71
0.62
0.20
0.18
0.26
-0.12
0.04
1.17
0.46
-0.74
-0.56
0.21
-1.09
0.23
0.20
0.12
0.34
-0.06
0.02
0.84
-0.25
-0.33
-0.27
0.04
-0.56
0.68
0.20
0.17
0.24
-0.05
0.02
1.25
0.69
-0.39
-0.32
0.19
-0.52
0.42
0.21
0.18
0.15
0.04
0.01
1.02
0.50
-0.21
-0.30
0.25
-0.26
0.75
0.27
0.19
-0.03
0.17
0.01
1.35
1.09
-0.05
-0.17
-0.14
-0.36
0.89
0.24
0.18
0.02
0.20
0.00
1.53
1.17
0.16
0.00
-0.21
-0.05
0.95
0.23
0.23
0.02
0.14
0.00
1.58
1.53
-0.12
-0.20
0.02
-0.30
0.75
0.24
0.20
0.04
0.14
0.01
1.37
1.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.05
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.06
0.00
-0.01
0.03
0.00
0.11
0.11
-0.31
-0.08
-0.05
-0.44
0.03
0.07
-0.05
0.08
0.00
0.01
0.13
-0.31
-0.08
-0.02
-0.01
-0.11
0.02
0.05
-0.01
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.08
-0.03
-0.07
-0.06
-0.04
-0.17
-0.26
-0.01
-0.02
0.01
-0.05
0.00
-0.34
-0.51
-0.02
-0.01
-0.03
-0.06
-0.17
0.04
-0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
-0.21
-0.26
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.08
0.04
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-0.06
-0.18
-0.02
0.02
-0.17
0.09
0.04
-0.04
0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.11
-0.06
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.10
-0.10
0.03
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
0.00
-0.13
-0.22
0.01
0.04
0.10
-0.32
-0.04
-0.54
-0.31
-0.17
0.25
-0.19
Annual Change (% per annum)

North America
-3.7
-0.1
3.3
3.4
1.3
2.0
Europe
-4.7
-5.1
-1.3
2.3
2.0
-0.5
Pacific
-4.6
1.2
0.4
4.7
0.6
1.7
Total OECD
-4.2
-1.5
1.3
3.3
1.4
1.1
Asia
4.4
12.0
6.8
3.2
6.6
7.0
Middle East
3.5
5.0
3.4
2.9
4.3
3.8
Latin America
0.0
4.7
5.3
6.2
4.6
5.2
FSU
-1.2
8.1
6.5
5.3
7.3
6.8
Africa
1.6
-1.6
2.1
2.3
5.4
2.0
Europe
-6.3
-7.5
-6.9
-3.7
1.3
-4.2
Total Non-OECD
2.5
7.6
5.3
3.6
5.8
5.5
World
-1.2
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.2
Annual Change (mb/d)
North America
-0.89
-0.01
0.75
0.80
0.31
0.46
Europe
-0.73
-0.77
-0.18
0.33
0.29
-0.08
Pacific
-0.37
0.10
0.03
0.34
0.05
0.13
Total OECD
-1.98
-0.69
0.60
1.47
0.65
0.51
Asia
0.77
2.04
1.25
0.59
1.26
1.28
Middle East
0.25
0.35
0.26
0.24
0.32
0.29
Latin America
0.00
0.27
0.32
0.37
0.28
0.31
FSU
-0.05
0.33
0.26
0.23
0.31
0.28
Africa
0.05
-0.06
0.07
0.08
0.18
0.07
Europe
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
Total Non-OECD
0.98
2.88
2.11
1.48
2.35
2.20
World
-1.00
2.19
2.71
2.95
3.00
2.72
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
North America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pacific
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total OECD
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Asia
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Middle East
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Latin America
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
FSU
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Africa
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Non-OECD
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
World
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
World
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
* France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
56
18 J ANUARY 2012
T ABLES
Table 2a
Table 2a - OECD Regional Oil Demand
1
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND
Latest month vs.

2009
2010
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
Aug 11 Sep 11
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
2.83
0.31
10.56
1.61
4.61
0.92
2.45
2.95
0.37
10.57
1.65
4.82
0.93
2.46
3.12
0.33
10.51
1.63
5.01
0.89
2.36
3.31
0.36
10.14
1.60
5.04
0.97
2.34
2.71
0.35
10.45
1.68
4.77
0.87
2.46
2.76
0.33
10.48
1.71
4.85
0.77
2.64
2.78
0.34
10.55
1.79
5.07
0.75
2.74
2.76
0.31
10.32
1.63
5.01
0.86
2.47
Total
23.29
23.76
23.85
23.76
23.29
23.54
24.02
0.96
1.18
2.31
1.25
6.04
1.44
1.50
0.96
1.26
2.21
1.27
6.13
1.27
1.47
0.96
1.27
2.14
1.26
6.43
1.30
1.46
1.04
1.27
2.02
1.20
6.04
1.29
1.32
0.96
1.17
2.18
1.27
5.73
1.22
1.57
0.94
1.13
2.20
1.35
6.17
1.25
1.63
14.66
14.58
14.83
14.18
14.11
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
0.86
1.62
1.55
0.85
1.61
0.77
0.44
0.84
1.68
1.57
0.87
1.62
0.74
0.49
0.83
1.75
1.59
0.98
1.70
0.73
0.48
0.88
1.78
1.51
1.18
1.67
0.80
0.54
Total
7.69
7.82
8.07
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
4.65
3.11
14.41
3.70
12.25
3.13
4.39
4.76
3.31
14.35
3.80
12.58
2.94
4.42
Total
45.64
46.16
Oct 11
Sep 11
Oct 10
2.94
0.36
10.21
1.56
5.04
0.78
2.33
0.17
0.05
-0.11
-0.07
0.03
-0.08
-0.14
0.05
0.04
-0.38
-0.07
0.21
-0.07
-0.12
23.36
23.21
-0.15
-0.34
0.95
1.16
2.24
1.33
6.21
1.21
1.60
0.95
1.09
2.21
1.38
6.41
1.25
1.69
0.92
1.03
2.09
1.28
6.31
1.23
1.47
-0.04
-0.06
-0.12
-0.10
-0.11
-0.02
-0.22
0.04
-0.19
-0.10
-0.04
-0.13
-0.07
-0.08
14.69
14.71
14.98
14.32
-0.66
-0.57
0.81
1.55
1.47
0.64
1.53
0.65
0.47
0.79
1.73
1.61
0.63
1.59
0.76
0.56
0.81
1.79
1.69
0.63
1.56
0.79
0.53
0.77
1.70
1.54
0.69
1.60
0.78
0.60
0.78
1.62
1.50
0.79
1.64
0.75
0.64
0.02
-0.08
-0.04
0.10
0.04
-0.03
0.03
0.08
-0.09
-0.03
0.03
0.04
0.07
0.25
8.35
7.11
7.68
7.80
7.69
7.73
0.05
0.34
4.91
3.36
14.24
3.88
13.14
2.92
4.30
5.23
3.41
13.67
3.98
12.75
3.06
4.19
4.48
3.07
14.11
3.58
12.04
2.74
4.50
4.49
3.20
14.30
3.70
12.61
2.78
4.83
4.54
3.29
14.48
3.75
12.84
2.75
4.87
4.48
3.11
14.07
3.69
13.03
2.90
4.76
4.63
3.02
13.80
3.63
12.99
2.76
4.44
0.15
-0.09
-0.27
-0.07
-0.03
-0.14
-0.32
0.17
-0.25
-0.51
-0.08
0.12
-0.08
0.05
46.75
46.29
44.52
45.91
46.53
46.03
45.27
-0.76
-0.58
North America
Europe
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Pacific
OECD
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
18 J ANUARY 2012
57
T ABLES
Table 2b
Table 2b - OECD Oil Demand and % Growth in Demand in Selected

OECD Countries
1
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES
Latest month vs.

2009
2010
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
Aug 11 Sep 11
Oct 11
Sep 11
Oct 10
United States3
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
2.05
2.17
0.25
0.26
9.00
8.99
1.41
1.45
3.63
3.80
0.51
0.54
1.92
1.97
18.77 19.18
2.32
0.22
8.92
1.44
3.94
0.52
1.87
19.23
2.47
0.27
8.61
1.40
3.95
0.61
1.86
19.17
1.96
0.27
8.87
1.49
3.75
0.51
1.97
18.82
1.99
0.25
8.89
1.50
3.78
0.36
2.12
18.89
1.99
0.25
8.92
1.57
3.97
0.32
2.21
19.23
2.05
0.23
8.75
1.43
3.94
0.47
1.96
18.82
2.16
0.28
8.63
1.37
3.95
0.40
1.84
18.62
0.11
0.05
-0.12
-0.06
0.01
-0.07
-0.12
-0.20
0.03
0.07
-0.39
-0.08
0.17
-0.09
-0.08
-0.35
Japan
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
0.50
0.72
0.99
0.55
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.39
4.39
0.48
0.77
1.00
0.55
0.41
0.43
0.40
0.41
4.45
0.47
0.81
1.00
0.62
0.43
0.44
0.39
0.40
4.57
0.54
0.79
0.95
0.80
0.41
0.48
0.42
0.47
4.86
0.50
0.65
0.92
0.36
0.39
0.36
0.36
0.38
3.92
0.45
0.74
1.04
0.34
0.41
0.36
0.48
0.51
4.32
0.46
0.79
1.10
0.33
0.39
0.35
0.51
0.50
4.44
0.44
0.70
0.98
0.38
0.42
0.35
0.48
0.55
4.29
0.46
0.66
0.95
0.47
0.42
0.38
0.48
0.57
4.41
0.02
-0.04
-0.03
0.10
0.01
0.04
0.00
0.02
0.12
0.08
-0.14
0.00
0.05
0.03
0.00
0.12
0.23
0.35
0.10
0.36
0.47
0.19
0.64
0.42
0.16
0.11
2.45
0.10
0.41
0.46
0.18
0.67
0.43
0.15
0.09
2.49
0.09
0.41
0.45
0.18
0.69
0.47
0.16
0.09
2.53
0.10
0.44
0.43
0.17
0.63
0.37
0.16
0.05
2.35
0.10
0.40
0.47
0.19
0.67
0.23
0.14
0.12
2.34
0.11
0.39
0.47
0.19
0.71
0.42
0.15
0.12
2.55
0.11
0.41
0.49
0.18
0.73
0.48
0.15
0.12
2.67
0.10
0.37
0.48
0.19
0.74
0.43
0.14
0.12
2.56
0.08
0.33
0.48
0.18
0.68
0.47
0.14
0.14
2.50
-0.02
-0.04
0.00
-0.01
-0.06
0.04
0.01
0.02
-0.06
0.00
-0.06
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
0.02
-0.15
0.10
0.10
0.25
0.09
0.49
0.13
0.18
0.20
1.54
0.11
0.12
0.24
0.10
0.49
0.12
0.13
0.23
1.53
0.11
0.11
0.24
0.09
0.50
0.14
0.12
0.25
1.56
0.12
0.11
0.22
0.09
0.47
0.11
0.10
0.21
1.43
0.08
0.10
0.24
0.10
0.51
0.09
0.11
0.24
1.47
0.08
0.08
0.24
0.12
0.50
0.10
0.13
0.22
1.47
0.08
0.08
0.24
0.11
0.46
0.10
0.13
0.20
1.40
0.09
0.09
0.24
0.12
0.52
0.11
0.12
0.24
1.54
0.09
0.08
0.23
0.11
0.50
0.13
0.12
0.21
1.47
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
0.02
0.00
-0.03
-0.08
0.01
-0.04
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
0.01
-0.05
-0.05
0.12
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.67
0.32
0.10
0.18
1.87
0.15
0.13
0.19
0.15
0.69
0.30
0.09
0.17
1.86
0.17
0.10
0.18
0.14
0.69
0.34
0.09
0.15
1.86
0.17
0.13
0.17
0.14
0.69
0.35
0.08
0.13
1.86
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.71
0.19
0.08
0.19
1.79
0.12
0.13
0.19
0.16
0.71
0.28
0.08
0.20
1.87
0.12
0.14
0.19
0.16
0.69
0.28
0.08
0.16
1.84
0.12
0.11
0.18
0.16
0.73
0.32
0.09
0.23
1.95
0.13
0.10
0.17
0.15
0.70
0.31
0.09
0.16
1.81
0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.00
-0.07
-0.14
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.15
0.02
0.37
0.33
0.43
0.12
0.08
0.14
1.65
0.14
0.03
0.35
0.33
0.45
0.12
0.06
0.14
1.62
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.34
0.44
0.12
0.07
0.15
1.60
0.14
0.03
0.34
0.34
0.45
0.11
0.07
0.15
1.62
0.15
0.03
0.34
0.32
0.45
0.11
0.06
0.16
1.61
0.13
0.02
0.33
0.33
0.45
0.13
0.06
0.15
1.61
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.33
0.45
0.14
0.06
0.15
1.61
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.36
0.47
0.13
0.07
0.15
1.66
0.12
0.02
0.33
0.33
0.46
0.11
0.06
0.14
1.57
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.03
-0.01
-0.02
0.00
-0.01
-0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
-0.09
0.35
0.05
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.28
0.10
0.31
2.16
0.35
0.08
0.73
0.11
0.22
0.31
0.10
0.30
2.21
0.36
0.08
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.34
0.11
0.30
2.25
0.39
0.09
0.69
0.11
0.22
0.36
0.11
0.28
2.25
0.35
0.08
0.74
0.10
0.22
0.28
0.09
0.29
2.15
0.36
0.08
0.77
0.12
0.23
0.32
0.09
0.31
2.28
0.39
0.09
0.78
0.12
0.23
0.33
0.09
0.32
2.34
0.30
0.08
0.74
0.11
0.23
0.32
0.11
0.31
2.21
0.36
0.06
0.74
0.10
0.23
0.33
0.10
0.29
2.21
0.06
-0.01
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.03
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.03
0.00
Germany
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Italy
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
France
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
United Kingdom
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Canada
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.
58
18 J ANUARY 2012
T ABLES
Table 3 - World Oil Production
Table 3
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
2010
2011
8.13
3.70
2.36
2.31
2.03
0.53
0.80
1.73
2.08
1.55
1.25
0.47
2.53
9.05
3.58
2.67
2.50
2.21
0.59
0.82
1.64
2.18
0.46
1.28
0.50
2.52
29.49
5.35
29.99
5.80
34.84
34.84
35.79
35.79
OECD
North America
United States5
Mexico
Canada
Europe
UK
Norway
Others
Pacific
Australia
Others
14.10
7.77
2.96
3.37
4.16
1.37
2.14
0.65
0.61
0.51
0.10
14.47
8.07
2.94
3.46
3.89
1.16
2.05
0.68
0.53
0.44
0.09
Total OECD
18.87
2012
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
9.34
3.53
2.67
2.53
2.26
0.60
0.82
1.69
2.26
0.04
1.28
0.49
2.42
9.38
3.51
2.68
2.54
2.35
0.60
0.82
1.72
2.06
0.57
1.29
0.49
2.52
29.93
5.80
30.53
5.92
35.74
35.74
36.45
36.45
14.73
8.24
2.85
3.63
3.91
1.20
2.04
0.66
0.66
0.57
0.09
14.52
8.10
2.92
3.50
3.62
0.94
1.99
0.68
0.51
0.42
0.09
14.73
8.28
2.91
3.54
4.04
1.27
2.09
0.68
0.59
0.50
0.09
14.82
8.22
2.89
3.71
4.07
1.27
2.12
0.68
0.62
0.53
0.09
14.60
8.34
2.88
3.38
3.81
1.17
1.97
0.67
0.65
0.56
0.09
18.89
19.29
18.65
19.37
19.51
13.55
10.45
3.10
13.63
10.58
3.05
13.82
10.73
3.09
13.54
10.58
2.96
13.74
10.67
3.07
Asia
China
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Others
7.80
4.10
0.72
0.86
0.97
1.14
7.67
4.13
0.65
0.90
0.91
1.08
7.70
4.20
0.63
0.92
0.86
1.10
7.56
4.06
0.65
0.89
0.91
1.06
Europe
0.14
0.14
0.14
Latin America
Brazil5
Argentina
Colombia
Others
4.07
2.14
0.69
0.79
0.45
4.20
2.18
0.66
0.92
0.44
4.42
2.32
0.66
1.02
0.42
1.74
0.87
0.39
0.30
0.19
1.62
0.89
0.33
0.20
0.20
2.52
0.70
0.25
1.58
3Q12
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
9.15
3.53
2.69
2.51
2.35
0.60
0.81
1.72
2.02
0.35
1.29
0.50
2.55
9.45
3.55
2.68
2.52
2.37
0.60
0.82
1.69
2.10
0.55
1.29
0.50
2.53
9.55
3.45
2.69
2.58
2.32
0.60
0.82
1.75
2.06
0.80
1.29
0.48
2.50
30.07
5.92
30.64
5.92
30.89
5.92
35.98
35.98
36.56
36.56
36.80
36.80
14.62
8.18
2.83
3.62
3.75
1.09
2.00
0.66
0.68
0.59
0.09
14.67
8.26
2.93
3.47
3.93
1.20
2.04
0.69
0.52
0.43
0.09
14.78
8.32
2.92
3.54
4.05
1.30
2.06
0.69
0.61
0.52
0.09
14.75
8.27
2.87
3.61
4.14
1.30
2.16
0.67
0.64
0.55
0.09
19.06
19.05
19.12
19.45
19.54
13.79
10.67
3.13
13.89
10.73
3.15
13.69
10.75
2.94
13.72
10.69
3.02
13.82
10.70
3.13
13.68
10.63
3.05
7.60
4.06
0.65
0.91
0.89
1.10
7.74
4.18
0.64
0.93
0.88
1.12
7.68
4.18
0.63
0.92
0.86
1.09
7.65
4.17
0.62
0.92
0.85
1.09
7.45
3.96
0.65
0.88
0.89
1.07
7.60
4.05
0.66
0.90
0.87
1.12
7.76
4.18
0.63
0.94
0.90
1.12
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
4.17
2.15
0.67
0.92
0.44
4.27
2.22
0.66
0.96
0.43
4.31
2.27
0.62
0.98
0.43
4.41
2.30
0.67
1.01
0.43
4.45
2.33
0.67
1.03
0.42
4.25
2.20
0.69
0.94
0.42
4.35
2.28
0.69
0.96
0.43
4.21
2.18
0.61
0.99
0.44
1.55
0.93
0.27
0.15
0.19
1.64
0.90
0.32
0.21
0.20
1.48
0.91
0.22
0.15
0.20
1.54
0.92
0.28
0.14
0.20
1.54
0.92
0.27
0.15
0.20
1.56
0.94
0.27
0.16
0.19
1.45
0.90
0.19
0.15
0.20
1.47
0.91
0.22
0.15
0.20
1.52
0.91
0.26
0.15
0.20
2.52
0.69
0.24
1.58
2.56
0.68
0.25
1.64
2.53
0.69
0.24
1.60
2.50
0.68
0.25
1.57
2.57
0.68
0.24
1.64
2.57
0.68
0.24
1.65
2.57
0.67
0.25
1.64
2.54
0.69
0.25
1.61
2.47
0.68
0.25
1.54
2.48
0.68
0.25
1.55
OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Neutral Zone
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Ecuador
Venezuela
Total Crude Oil6
Total NGLs1,6
6
Total OPEC
OPEC: Historical Composition6
6.35
6.15
6.20
6.50
NON-OPEC2
NON-OECD
Former USSR
Russia
Others
Middle East
Oman
Syria
Yemen
Others
Africa
Egypt
Gabon
Others
29.83
29.77
30.19
29.58
29.73
30.10
30.23
30.06
29.55
29.86
29.80
Processing Gains4
2.10
2.17
2.26
2.14
2.23
2.28
2.23
2.24
2.23
2.23
2.23
Global Biofuels5
1.83
1.83
1.94
2.16
1.80
1.58
1.93
2.24
1.92
1.82
1.65
TOTAL NON-OPEC6
52.62
52.66
53.68
52.52
53.13
53.48
53.46
53.58
52.82
53.36
53.22
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition6
52.62
52.66
53.68
52.52
53.13
53.48
53.46
53.58
52.82
53.36
53.22
TOTAL SUPPLY
87.46
88.45
88.26
89.58
88.80
89.92
90.02
Total Non-OECD
1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
3 Includes small amounts of production from Israel, Jordan and Bahrain.
4 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
5 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
6 Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
18 J ANUARY 2012
59
T ABLES
Table 4
Table 4 - OECD Industry Stocks and
Quarterly Stock Changes/OECD Government1
OECD
AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
Controlled Stocks
andINDUSTRY
QuarterlySTOCKS
Stock Changes
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
North America
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Europe
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Pacific
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Total OECD
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
STOCK CHANGES
in Million Barrels
in mb/d
Jul2011
Aug2011
Sep2011
Oct2011
Nov2011*
Nov2008
Nov2009
Nov2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
486.8
247.9
231.7
45.2
710.7
484.9
246.2
230.0
46.1
710.1
466.3
250.6
227.8
42.4
707.0
477.6
243.0
218.0
44.4
688.5
474.1
251.0
218.2
46.9
693.2
449.7
232.6
205.5
47.0
671.7
464.3
252.6
243.7
43.3
715.2
498.4
244.3
236.9
47.9
705.7
-0.30
0.02
-0.07
0.01
-0.31
0.25
-0.03
-0.24
-0.05
-0.58
0.02
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.29
-0.36
0.02
0.16
-0.02
0.30
1360.4
1361.7
1341.0
1334.1
1330.4
1283.8
1334.4
1366.2
-0.77
-0.39
0.49
0.02
310.1
92.2
274.8
63.3
548.4
310.5
90.8
273.7
67.7
552.9
308.3
89.0
265.4
64.1
538.6
299.7
90.6
261.0
63.1
535.8
305.5
95.0
262.9
64.7
543.9
328.3
100.3
270.5
73.7
561.8
343.3
97.5
294.8
68.8
570.5
322.1
96.8
283.8
69.6
557.8
0.04
0.02
-0.02
-0.09
-0.07
0.01
0.04
0.09
-0.01
0.11
-0.05
-0.09
-0.13
-0.03
-0.22
-0.11
-0.03
-0.09
0.00
-0.08
925.8
929.5
911.3
901.4
916.7
964.3
981.6
948.4
0.02
0.06
-0.24
-0.23
163.7
25.2
66.5
21.2
176.7
155.2
25.1
70.0
19.4
180.7
157.2
24.4
67.8
20.2
181.0
155.4
24.0
66.6
19.9
180.5
149.5
23.2
67.5
19.8
177.3
166.4
24.1
69.7
20.8
186.4
167.1
25.2
69.2
19.2
177.4
164.8
24.5
65.3
19.4
178.8
0.03
-0.01
-0.07
-0.03
-0.16
0.00
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.09
0.01
0.01
0.14
0.01
0.18
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.10
411.9
409.7
411.6
407.4
399.8
426.1
407.3
414.7
-0.13
-0.10
0.26
0.07
960.6
365.3
573.0
129.7
1435.8
950.7
362.1
573.8
133.1
1443.6
931.8
363.9
561.1
126.7
1426.5
932.7
357.6
545.6
127.3
1404.8
929.1
369.2
548.5
131.4
1414.4
944.4
357.0
545.7
141.4
1419.8
974.7
375.2
607.7
131.3
1463.1
985.3
365.6
586.0
136.9
1442.3
-0.23
0.03
-0.16
-0.12
-0.54
0.26
0.02
-0.21
-0.04
-0.56
-0.02
-0.09
-0.03
-0.04
0.25
-0.49
-0.02
0.07
-0.03
0.32
2698.1
2700.9
2663.9
2642.9
2647.0
2674.1
2723.2
2729.3
-0.87
-0.43
0.50
-0.14
OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in Million Barrels
in mb/d
Jul2011
Aug2011
Sep2011
Oct2011
Nov2011*
Nov2008
Nov2009
Nov2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
North America
Crude
Products
718.2
0.0
696.5
0.0
696.0
0.0
696.0
0.0
696.0
0.7
701.8
2.0
726.1
2.0
726.6
2.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.33
0.00
Europe
Crude
Products
183.4
237.0
183.1
236.5
183.0
235.9
182.8
235.5
182.8
235.5
187.3
226.8
183.7
241.0
186.2
231.2
0.05
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.05
-0.02
-0.01
Pacific
Crude
Products
389.1
18.5
390.6
18.7
390.7
18.7
391.1
20.0
392.6
20.0
386.2
19.2
388.8
20.0
387.1
20.0
0.08
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
1290.8
255.5
1270.2
255.2
1269.6
254.6
1269.9
255.5
1271.4
256.1
1275.3
248.0
1298.5
263.0
1299.9
253.2
0.13
-0.01
0.01
-0.05
-0.01
0.05
-0.36
-0.03
1547.7
1526.8
1525.6
1526.7
1528.8
1524.2
1563.0
1554.4
0.12
-0.03
0.04
-0.38
Total OECD
Crude
Products
Total
2Q2011
3Q2011
* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
60
18 J ANUARY 2012
T ABLES
Table 5
1
Table 5 - Total Stocks on
LandSTOCKS
in OECD
Countries/Total
OECD Stocks
TOTAL
ON LAND
IN OECD COUNTRIES
('millions of barrels' and 'days')
End September 2010

Stock
Level
North America
Canada
Mexico
United States4
Days Fwd2
Demand
End December 2010
End March 2011
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
End June 2011 End September 2011

Stock Days Fwd
Level Demand
195.5
49.0
1863.2
86
24
97
196.5
44.5
1796.1
86
22
94
185.2
45.0
1769.5
84
22
94
189.7
46.5
1807.6
80
22
96
187.8
46.1
1780.9
2129.8
89
2059.2
87
2021.7
87
2065.9
88
2036.9
88
40.5
581.8
173.5
8.2
41
127
74
53
38.1
588.3
165.4
8.2
39
121
70
51
39.1
575.4
170.2
8.0
39
147
83
53
39.5
593.2
175.2
8.2
39
137
79
56
38.2
601.1
173.6
8.1
804.0
100
800.0
96
792.7
111
816.0
106
821.0
99
18.9
34.3
21.1
26.9
28.5
163.4
285.6
36.3
15.9
11.4
126.6
0.7
121.2
20.8
64.2
22.8
8.6
133.0
34.4
37.7
58.5
94.5
65
51
105
159
121
88
113
95
103
68
81
12
122
77
107
84
101
92
94
146
90
59
19.7
33.6
21.2
26.8
27.8
168.2
286.8
34.3
15.9
9.8
133.3
0.6
125.8
20.8
65.5
22.9
8.3
133.2
32.4
36.8
58.5
88.8
77
50
117
171
127
91
122
92
119
63
93
10
129
81
123
89
109
93
94
156
101
55
19.4
37.0
21.5
21.4
26.9
167.4
289.4
33.9
17.4
10.8
131.8
0.5
125.7
21.1
62.8
23.5
9.0
132.9
33.7
36.6
58.3
92.8
77
59
106
132
133
94
124
106
124
79
90
9
124
93
109
87
111
97
101
168
85
57
19.6
38.1
21.7
21.5
27.0
166.7
290.8
32.6
17.3
10.2
130.0
0.6
117.8
23.5
64.6
23.3
8.9
130.1
32.5
37.2
56.6
84.9
70
58
109
134
130
89
114
99
118
73
88
9
114
96
105
86
104
94
101
150
73
53
18.0
36.7
20.1
22.4
27.0
160.0
282.6
30.9
16.2
11.3
130.1
0.7
114.3
24.5
65.2
21.9
8.3
131.2
32.6
37.0
56.4
84.1
Total
1365.5
92
1371.1
97
1374.0
97
1355.4
92
1331.6
93
Total OECD
4299.2
-
92
145
4230.3
-
92
146
4188.5
-
94
146
4237.3
-
92
147
4189.5
-
145
Total
Pacific
Australia
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
Total
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Europe
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
DAYS OF IEA Net Imports
92
1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End September 2011 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.
TOTAL OECD STOCKS

CLOSING STOCKS
Total
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4164
4206
4278
4306
4327
4205
4241
4319
4299
4230
4188
4237
4189
Government1
controlled
Millions of Barrels
1522
1527
1547
1561
1564
1564
1567
1562
1549
1561
1558
1561
1526
Industry
2641
2679
2731
2745
2763
2641
2675
2757
2750
2670
2631
2676
2664
Total
88
90
96
95
94
92
94
93
92
92
94
92
92
Industry
Government1
controlled
Days of Fwd. Demand 2
32
33
35
35
34
34
35
34
33
34
35
34
33
56
57
61
61
60
57
59
59
59
58
59
58
58
1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 3Q2011 (when latest forecasts are used).
18 J ANUARY 2012
61
T ABLES
Table 6
Table 6 - IEA Member Country Destinations of Selected Crude Streams
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS1

2008 2009 2010
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11
Year Earlier
change
Oct 10
Saudi Light & Extra Light

North America
Europe
Pacific
0.70
0.70
1.22
0.52
0.59
1.28
0.69
0.66
1.21
0.75
0.69
1.26
0.71
0.70
1.33
0.72
0.79
1.14
0.47
0.93
1.21
0.55
1.00
1.12
0.31
0.82
1.27
0.59
0.90
1.22
0.67
0.64
1.03
-0.09
0.26
0.19
Saudi Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.64
0.05
0.39
0.40
0.02
0.34
0.36
0.00
0.34
0.36
0.37
0.33
0.39
0.36
0.02
0.38
0.40
0.05
0.43
0.33
0.07
0.47
0.45
0.03
0.45
0.35
0.01
0.33
0.36
0.33
-0.01
0.00
Saudi Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.07
0.09
0.24
0.03
0.02
0.15
0.02
0.00
0.22
0.01
0.21
0.02
0.00
0.20
0.03
0.00
0.21
0.03
0.03
0.23
0.02
0.19
0.07
0.02
0.25
0.02
0.02
0.08
0.20
-0.12
0.60
0.21
0.15
0.40
0.12
0.24
0.36
0.09
0.29
0.29
0.08
0.38
0.21
0.03
0.40
0.41
0.10
0.26
0.31
0.19
0.38
0.47
0.21
0.39
0.23
0.19
0.35
0.01
0.13
0.32
0.21
0.11
0.44
-0.20
0.01
-0.11
Iraqi Kirkuk
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.08
0.23
-
0.06
0.31
-
0.03
0.27
-
0.04
0.23
-
0.11
0.21
-
0.07
0.31
-
0.05
0.32
-
0.15
0.29
-
0.00
0.26
-
0.03
0.29
-
0.04
0.21
-
-0.01
0.09
-
Iranian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.23
0.08
0.15
0.07
0.24
0.04
0.18
0.01
0.24
0.06
0.28
0.03
0.20
0.04
0.20
0.07
0.17
0.02
0.20
0.02
0.16
-
0.04
-
Iranian Heavy3
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.49
0.61
0.40
0.57
0.49
0.52
0.43
0.52
0.34
0.63
0.59
0.41
0.73
0.51
0.68
0.49
0.71
0.53
0.58
0.51
0.54
0.50
0.04
0.01
Venezuelan Light & Medium

North America
0.62
Europe
0.06
Pacific
-
0.39
0.07
-
0.14
0.02
-
0.16
0.01
-
0.06
0.03
-
0.30
0.01
-
0.24
0.02
-
0.31
0.01
-
0.24
0.02
-
0.30
-
0.11
0.03
-
0.20
-
Venezuelan 22 API and heavier

North America
0.65
Europe
0.07
Pacific
-
0.75
0.07
-
0.86
0.06
-
0.75
0.05
-
0.89
0.04
-
0.77
0.05
-
0.70
0.06
-
0.77
0.07
-
0.51
0.05
-
0.65
0.04
-
0.69
0.07
-
-0.05
-0.03
-
Mexican Maya
North America
Europe
Pacific
1.02
0.14
-
0.93
0.10
-
0.91
0.11
-
0.92
0.09
-
0.82
0.14
-
0.80
0.12
-
0.84
0.12
-
0.93
0.09
-
0.76
0.11
-
0.81
0.11
-
0.90
0.15
-
-0.09
-0.04
-
Mexican Isthmus
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.01
0.01
-
0.01
0.01
-
0.04
0.02
-
0.09
0.05
-
0.05
0.01
-
0.08
0.02
-
0.06
0.00
-
0.06
-
0.07
-
0.07
0.01
-
0.07
0.10
-
0.00
-0.09
-
Russian Urals
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.05
1.81
-
0.15
1.72
-
0.08
1.80
-
0.03
1.71
-
0.01
1.76
-
1.87
-
1.52
-
1.35
-
1.56
-
0.05
1.57
-
0.07
1.60
-
-0.02
-0.04
-
Nigerian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.68
0.29
-
0.54
0.32
0.00
0.60
0.34
-
0.58
0.49
-
0.62
0.40
0.05
0.60
0.40
0.04
0.43
0.54
0.06
0.48
0.62
0.05
0.22
0.55
0.06
0.75
0.39
0.06
0.56
0.47
-
0.19
-0.09
-
Nigerian Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.27
0.14
-
0.21
0.13
-
0.25
0.09
-
0.22
0.11
-
0.20
0.14
-
0.18
0.17
-
0.18
0.11
-
0.17
0.14
-
0.17
0.14
-
0.17
0.10
-
0.20
0.09
-
-0.03
0.01
-
Iraqi Basrah Light

North America
Europe
Pacific
1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA North America includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Hungary. The Slovak Republic and Poland is excluded through December 2007 but included thereafter.
IEA Pacific data includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33 API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate).
62
18 J ANUARY 2012
T ABLES
Table 7
Table 7 - Regional OECD Imports

REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2
2008
Crude Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
2009
Aug-11 Sep-11
Oct-11
Year Earlier
Oct-10 % change
2010
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
8076 7353 7346

9776 8893 9076
6605 6082 6249
24457 22329 22671
6625
9110
6479
22213
6571
8901
6645
22117
6928
8903
6086
21917
6766
9390
6255
22411
6711
9580
6232
22523
6590
9283
6271
22145
6826
8820
6217
21863
6474
8731
6077
21432
5%
1%
2%
2%
LPG
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
31
268
589
887
13
260
529
802
8
270
558
836
6
299
567
872
21
313
569
904
4
284
547
836
4
304
580
888
4
297
525
825
5
336
573
914
6
318
508
833
7
229
580
815
-6%
39%
-12%
2%
Naphtha
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
56
298
776
1130
22
352
841
1215
36
390
900
1326
35
382
893
1309
34
292
917
1243
51
336
830
1217
43
285
906
1234
45
218
928
1191
45
282
910
1237
40
325
809
1174
48
318
949
1315
-16%
2%
-15%
-11%
Gasoline
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1077
215
90
1383
878
193
96
1167
788
174
64
1025
712
127
67
907
668
223
71
961
981
221
61
1262
704
216
70
990
776
228
87
1090
594
207
63
864
612
226
83
921
767
79
64
910
-20%
187%
29%
1%
Jet & Kerosene

North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
64
401
34
500
62
452
53
567
76
417
40
532
89
396
46
531
62
320
58
440
86
367
43
497
81
451
45
578
75
450
39
565
65
455
61
582
65
438
65
568
96
405
45
546
-33%
8%
45%
4%
Gasoil/Diesel
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
74
871
119
1064
55
1035
87
1177
49
1045
97
1191
14
1235
92
1340
46
1078
99
1224
30
931
153
1114
32
934
123
1088
25
781
113
919
48
1096
135
1279
5
1143
146
1294
6
1216
81
1303
-4%
-6%
80%
-1%
Heavy Fuel Oil

North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
288
458
125
871
270
534
113
917
277
529
117
923
254
502
101
857
345
505
147
997
305
582
111
997
193
651
156
1001
204
676
169
1049
195
614
169
978
206
629
142
977
235
534
106
875
-13%
18%
34%
12%
Other Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1078
734
298
2110
870
770
325
1964
805
666
335
1806
906
737
352
1996
855
683
383
1921
896
776
252
1924
900
725
343
1967
833
857
318
2008
872
640
394
1906
747
571
316
1634
962
761
293
2016
-22%
-25%
8%
-19%
Total Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
2667
3245
2032
7944
2171
3595
2045
7810
2038
3491
2111
7639
2017
3678
2118
7812
2032
3415
2244
7690
2355
3497
1995
7848
1958
3565
2223
7746
1962
3507
2179
7648
1824
3630
2306
7760
1681
3651
2068
7401
2120
3541
2118
7780
-21%
3%
-2%
-5%
10743 9524 9384

13022 12488 12567
8637 8127 8360
32401 30139 30310
8641
12788
8596
30025
8603
12316
8888
29807
9283
12401
8081
29765
8724
12955
8478
30157
8673
13087
8411
30171
8415
12913
8577
29904
8507
12471
8285
29264
8745
12272
8195
29212
-3%
2%
1%
0%
Total Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.
18 J ANUARY 2012
63
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18 January 2012

Clear signs of economic weakness tipped global oil demand into a

NonOPEC supply fell by 140 kb/d to 53.2mb/d in December, as

OECD industry oil inventories rose by 4.1 mb to 2647 mb, or

Global refinery crude runs are revised down by 250kb/d and

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

World: Total Demand, Y-o-Y Growth

Source: ICE, NYMEX

Dec 08 Sep 09 Jun 10 Mar 11

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Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

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World: Total Demand, Y-o-Y Growth

World: Gasoil Demand

Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012

Global Demand Growth

18J ANUARY 2012

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Oil Demand Sensitivity

2011 vs. 2010

2012 vs. 2011

Global GDP (y-o-y chg)

OECD: Demand Growth by Region

OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

OECD North Am erica

18J ANUARY 2012

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OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - November 2011

US50: Total Oil Product Demand

US50: Gasoil Demand

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OECD Europe: Total Demand Growth

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kb/d German: Total Oil Product Demand

France: Total Oil Product Demand

Japan: Total Oil Product Demand

18J ANUARY 2012

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Reports of warmerthannormal temperatures further undermined the November demand series,

Non-OECD: Demand Growth by Region

m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

Non-OECD: Demand by Product

Annual Chg (kb/d)

Annual Chg (%)

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

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China: Total Oil Product Demand

China: Gasoil Demand

China: Demand by Product

Annual Chg (kb/d)

Annual Chg (%)

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

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