Jarett Lopez 6385761 Dr. E.

Bailey ENG1100F November 30, 2011 Population control: global warming

Lopez 1

Global warming is a phenomenon caused by an influx of greenhouse gases that intensify the green house effect. The green house effect is a process in which heat energy is absorbed and redistributed by the gases that make up a planets atmosphere. The main gases that contribute to the effect are: water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane. The suns radiation alone isnt enough to sustain life on Earth. Without the greenhouse effect the Earths surface temperature would be approximately -18.5 oC, without it, life on Earth as we know wouldnt be possible. This fact begs the question, why has the greenhouse effect become a problem? The answer has come to the forefront of world politics in recent years, with many commentators arguing that, while climate change is inevitable, the speed at which it is happening has escalated significantly over the past century. The fundamental reason behind this shift is the accelerated growth of the human population. This drastic rise in the human population in the last century, has led to a transformation of the natural environment by humans that is unprecedented in its scale. (Dutta and Radner 252). The relation between population growth and energy demands is clear. Each living person on earth in one way or another makes demands on the energy for providing their basic needs such as food, water, shelter and so on. Therefore, the greater the number of people, the greater the demands on energy (Shi 4). Meeting these demands has resulted in a drastic rise in greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing their effects, thus precipitating a global warming crisis. It is important to understand how the population explosion affected the pace of global warming because, on average, 1 percent of population growth is associated with a 1.28 percentage increase in emissions. (Shi 2). What we gain from this knowledge is insight into the cause of the explosion and possible solutions we can use to fix it. One of which is the conclusion that, theoretically, if 1 percent population growth results in approximately the same amount of emission growth, then 1 a percent decrease in population should result in a corresponding

Lopez 2 emission decrease. With this information in mind, it affects the way we should approach climate change policy, currently the laws are made to target emissions themselves, which are symptoms of the problem, but instead they should target the source of the problem itself, the population creating the emissions. However, population control has been an issue of controversy ever since China, imposed its one-child policy (Stevenson, Newman and Mayhew 152). There are various proposed solutions to limit population growth, emigration, decreasing immigration, contraception, abstinence, medical abortion, family planning none of which are capable of effectively solving the problem. The only solutions capable of solving the population growth problem are radical and will infringe on human rights. Given that unrelenting growth of human population is the main cause behind the acceleration of global warming, the focus of climate change policies should be altered from reducing emissions to managing population growth. Due to the reluctance of governments to implement radical but effective solutions, the population and consequently the global warming crises will remain unresolved. We are aware of our growing population, the statistic is used in multiple news stories, mentioned in several course curriculums and is often linked to various international issues. NGOs (Non-governmental organizations) and international governments alike refer to our growing population in several other their prevalent issues such as health care, world hunger, potable water shortages, energy consumption and war. Energy consumption is in direct relation to emissions. The primary source of energy production is generated through the burning of fossil fuels (Dutta 252). Oil, petroleum and natural gas, when burned, produce a substantial quantity of energy per unit weight. However, burning of these fuels also produces various emissions which increase the amount of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are gases that are capable of exchanging heat energy. The earths greenhouse gases relevant to the issue of global warming include: carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor. The main cause of these CO2 emissions [comes] from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes (Raupach and Canadell 10288). The burning of fossil fuels produces

Lopez 3 approximately 30 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (Le Qur 832). As a result of this, global atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased from 280 ppm in the 1700s to 380 ppm in 2005 (Field 10288). However, the earths natural processes are only capable of absorbing about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year. The earth has had carbon dioxide in its atmosphere long before the existence of human beings. The carbon cycle is the, biogeochemical cycle that allows for carbon to be recycled and reused (Field and Raupach 168) throughout the earths atmosphere and all of its organisms. Until approximately 1750, the carbon cycle used approximately 596.4 billion tonnes of carbon to complete its cycle (Field and Raupach 172). Around this time was the industrial revolution which introduced several improvements in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology. These improvements brought about an exponential growth in population, which was less than 8 million at the time, as well as the burning fossil fuels. Since then, the earths population has grown by 6.2 billion people, and has over 231.1 billion tonnes of excess carbon. This surplus of carbon is generated primarily by the burning of fossil fuels and cannot be used by the carbon cycle. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependent on the amount of fuel burnt. This amount is dependent on the energy demands of the population, which increases as it does. Therefore carbon emissions that cause global warming by intensifying the greenhouse effect are due to human population growth. Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas with the global warming potential that is 25 times higher than carbon dioxide (Ledley and Killeen 453). The only reason it is less of a concern that carbon dioxide today is because there is less of it in our atmosphere. However, the concentration of methane in the atmosphere has been steadily increasing due to the increasing human population. Methane emissions come from various sources, one of which energy production which has already been proven to be the cause of human population growth. Another is the decomposition of organic waste, mainly in landfills (Gendebien 65). Since the rise of human population following the industrial revolution, the amount of waste produced has risen

Lopez 4 exponentially. Back then, the immediate solution used to solve this problem was one which only created more greenhouse gas emissions. The amount of waste in the worlds largest collection of waste is the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Its area is estimated to be up to 8,000 sq mi, twice the size of Hawaii (Coulter 1964). Along with the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean garbage patches growing over the last several decades the amount of methane being emitted is astronomical. The ever growing human population has increasing demands for production which results in the ever growing amount of waste. Since the industrial revolution the amount of methane emitted from landfills has risen from 30 to 70 million tonnes per year (Gendebien 254). Most of this landfill methane comes from developing countries which have the highest population growth rate. Therefore population growth rate has caused the emissions of the greenhouse gas methane which causes global warming. Approximately 1.5 billion cows produce up to 348.4 million tonnes of methane a day (Live Animal 2009 Data). This means that the methane emission from cows alone in one year is over 127.2 billion tonnes. There are two closely related reasons for the massive cow population. The first is the integral part of cow byproducts to the human food supply. This supply is in constant growth due to the human population growth. The second reason is the economic potential of the 30 billion beef industry. The demand caused by the increasing population causes the industry to produce more, for more profits. Therefore increasing population is the cause of the methane produced by cattle and livestock. Water vapor is the most powerful of the greenhouse gases due to containing the hydroxide ion. This ion absorbs more thermal and light energy than the other greenhouse gases. Water vapor accounts for up to 72% of the greenhouse effect and is 25 times more prevalent than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Stephens 634). The ClausiusClapeyron relation which proves that as it warms, air is capable of holding more water vapor (Stephens 634). This suggests that increased temperatures caused by other greenhouse gases increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore population growth indirectly increases the potency of the most abundant green house gas causing global warming.

Lopez 5 The primary objective of current climate change policies worldwide is the reduction of emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty created to unify the world in the fight against global warming. The main goal of the UNFCCC is, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (United Nations 1994). Several countries have put forth solutions of how they will reduce their emissions, citing the burning of fossil fuels as the root cause. Nevertheless, as proven above, the burning of fossil fuels is a contributing factor, with human population growth being the root cause. Policies targeted at reducing emissions are as useful as treating for the symptoms of a disease. Treating the symptoms are temporary fixes for a disease that will remain uncured. In this case, the disease is global warming, the symptoms are emissions and the vaccine is population reduction. Therefore the proposed solutions for global warming by countries today are ultimately useless in the resolution of the initial problem, population growth. Assuming, the Earths nations realize the fundamental cause of global warming, another problem will arise. Governments will be reluctant to implement solutions that will veritably succeed. The issue of over population and depopulation is a highly criticized and controversial one. Proposed solutions for overpopulation included: emigration, decreasing immigration, contraception, abstinence, medical abortion, family planning, sterilization and genocide. To fully understand the problem, the calculation of population growth must be clear. Population growth is determined by four factors: deaths, births, immigration and emigration. The formula used to express it involves the difference between births and deaths added to the difference between immigration and emigration. In the calculation of world population growth, immigration and emigration are omitted due to the current impossibility of extra-terrestrial migration. Therefore there are two ways in which to reduce growth rate, lower the birth rate or raise the death rate. Contraception and abstinence are solutions that derive from controlling the act of reproduction itself. These solutions impose no obligation on those with the intent of reproducing, they only serve to minimize the accidental births of those exclusively engaging in sexual intercourse. Medical abortion is a solution that occurs after contraception and abstinence has

Lopez 6 failed, and is the subject of its own controversies. Family planning such as Chinas 1 child policy has had minimal effectiveness due to its many exceptions and difficult enforcement (Greenhalgh 308). Such solutions are described as too little, too late and too expensive, or they have sociological costs which hobble their effectiveness (Ehrlich and Holdren 1215). All proposed solutions above are in effect in several countries and have proven to be ineffective in the repression of population growth. None the less, governments continue to put forth these futile policies knowing that effective ones exist. Sterilization would be the solution resulting in the lowering of the birth rate. Sterilization of populations would remove not only the intent but the ability to reproduce. Genocide would be the solution resulting in the simultaneous reduction in the birth rate and rise in the death rate, and therefore the most effective solution to human population growth. Anyone with a shred of humanity will understand why these solutions, though effective will not be implemented by governments. Sensitivities in discussing population at government or international levels have persisted since human rights concerns were raised in the 1960s and 1970s over aggressive population control policies (Stevenson, Newman and Mayhew 153). Population growth solutions that would violate basic human rights such as sterilization and genocide would cause numerous problems for governments. Such suggestions are described as desperate and repressive measures for population control (Ehrlich and Holdren 1216). Terms such as radical, extreme, inhumane and other similar terms would be issued at the first sign of such solutions. The mere indication would result in protests, riots, revolutions, impeachments and overall moral, social and societal opposition of the masses. Therefore governments are not only reluctant, but opposed to introducing effective solutions for population growth such as sterilization and genocide. As radical and unethical as they may be, there is no denying how effective such solutions would be if used correctly. For example, it is proven that as adults become senior citizens their energy demands rise (ONeill and Chen 59). This is because, although their transportation demands minimize, due to their lack of physical mobility, their residential energy consumption rises exponentially (ONeill and Chen 59). Additionally, the energy needs of the elderly increase as their basic needs become insufficient to sustain their lives. 2 billion people will be aged 60 and older by 2050 (World Health Organization 2011), the systematic eradication of seniors

Lopez 7 would dramatically lower the energy demands associated with providing their basic and advanced needs. Still, this would only increase the death rate and is not a permanent solution. The most effective and permanent solution for the increased population growth and consequently global warming is the sterilization of the fertile population in developing countries. Developing countries are responsible for 88% of the world population growth (World Bank 16), and with an approximate 1:1 ratio of population to emission reduction, the sterilization of developing countries would reduce emissions by 88%. Conversely, as mentioned earlier, governments will not impose such drastic and radical solutions that are guaranteed to work. One reason for this is the blatant violation of human rights resulting in political suicide for the government. Therefore the problem of the relentless human growth rate and consequently the threat of global warming will go unsolved indefinitely.

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