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PT PP LONDON SUMATRA
15-Dec-11
Ticker Price Target Price Recommendation Upside (Downside) Market Cap (Rptn) Issued Share (bn share) Shareholders PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk. Public LSIP 2,150 2,675 BUY 24.4% 14.7
59.5% 40.5% 2010 3,592.7 1,597.6 1,033.3 151.5 49.3% 44.5% 28.8% net cash 2011F 4,161.8 2,111.2 1,625.8 238.3 55.1% 50.7% 39.1% net cash
Revenue (Rpbn) EBITDA (Rpbn) Net Profit (Rpbn) EPS (Rp) Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Net Gearing (x)
PP London Sumatra
Year-end 31-Dec Revenue (Rpbn) EBITDA (Rpbn) Net profit (Rpbn) EPS (Rp) EPS Growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on Equity (%) Net Gearing (%)
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
3,846.2 3,199.7 3,592.7 4,161.8 4,378.7 1,440.1 1,171.4 1,597.6 2,111.2 2,207.3 927.6 707.5 1,033.3 1,625.8 1,644.8 135.9 103.7 151.5 238.3 241.1 64.5% -23.7% 46.1% 57.3% 1.2% 37.4% 36.6% 44.5% 50.7% 50.4% 24.1% 22.1% 28.8% 39.1% 37.6% 21.5 80.5 84.8 11.5 11.0 13.6 16.2 11.5 8.2 7.2 29.0% 18.6% 22.7% 29.4% 25.2% net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
PP London Sumatra
production 10,931tons, dropped -27.1% YoY compared to a year earlier 14,986tons. Lower rubber nucleus production was due to less crop purchased from plasma and 3rd party. Comparing production of CPO, rubber and palm oil seeds, LSIP benefits for its diversified products mix where gain in one production can help to offset the loss in other production. In 2010, production in seeds grew 14.2% YoY higher, offsetting lower production in CPO and rubber that dropped -3.1% YoY and -15.2% YoY respectively. Exh. 1: Procentage Production Changes 2003 2010
80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CPO Palm oil seed (thousand) Rubber Others
Source: Company
Possible stable demand from parent company After acquired by PT Salim Ivomas Pratama (56.4%) and Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. (8.0%) back in 2007 where Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. then divested its shares in 2010 hence made PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk. (SIMP) major shareholders, LSIP recorded growing sales to SIMP from 2007 only selling 0.5% of total sales to SIMP to 9M11 selling 64.5% of total sales. Exh. 2: Growing Sales to SIMP
2008 SIMP (Rpbn) 665.9 2009 976.6 2010 2,044.9 9M10 1,266.2 9M11 2,273.4
17.3%
30.5%
56.9%
52.7%
64.5%
In addition, LSIP recorded increases in operating margin contributed by lower selling and distribution costs and G&A expenses. We see the decreases in both variables likely came from increases sales contribution to SIMP where LSIP recorded 0.5% selling costs ratio to sales in 9M11 compared to 0.9% selling costs ratio to sales a year earlier. The G&A expenses ratio to sales also dropped to 7.3% in 9M11 from 10.6% in 9M10. Going forward, we see this as positive note for LSIP as there will likely be stable demand from SIMP as LSIPs parent company with potential higher operating margin contributed by lower selling and distribution costs and G&A expenses.
Potential for being dividend player With ample cash available, LSIP has the potential to be a dividend player where the company recorded distribution of dividend stable since 2009, distributing 30% of its FY2008 net profit at Rp208 per share, followed by distributing 40% of its FY2009 net profit at Rp209 per share and its FY2010 net profit at Rp61 per share.
Price (US$/MT) 1,238.57 1,248.55 1,142.23 1,123.79 1,143.44 1,075.91 1,033.57 1,047.51 995.18 914.44
1,096.32
Time
Other key assumptions used in our base case model: - WACC applicable for discounting of future projects cashflow is 16.7%. - Effective tax rate = 20% - Exchange rates Rp9,000/US$ - Terminal growth of 2%. To estimate the target price, we employed DCF based valuation where LSIP value depend on the present value of future cash flow the company is expected to receive further. We initiate our coverage on LSIP with a Buy recommendation with a target price of Rp2,675, which represents 24.4% potential upside. We like LSIP for its massive landbank, relatively young age plantation profile, diversified products, and healthy balance sheet.
PP London Sumatra
Exh. 6: LSIP 9M11 results
Rpbn Revenue Gross Profit Operating Income Other Income Income Tax Net Income Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin 9M10 2,403.1 1,155.8 843.4 22.8 (224.3) 641.8 48.1% 35.1% 26.7% 9M11 %YoY 1Q10 680.2 324.6 238.2 (12.9) (57.4) 167.9 47.7% 35.0% 24.7% 2Q10 886.2 425.7 312.0 26.3 (88.4) 249.9 48.0% 35.2% 28.2% 3Q10 836.7 405.4 293.2 9.4 (78.6) 224.1 48.4% 35.0% 26.8% 4Q10 1,189.5 615.6 556.1 (40.5) (124.2) 391.5 51.8% 46.8% 32.9% 1Q11 1,175.8 624.5 528.0 (2.1) (131.7) 393.9 53.1% 44.9% 33.5% 2Q11 1,207.0 641.3 529.2 37.5 (74.5) 492.4 53.1% 43.8% 40.8% 3Q11 1,140.0 571.5 495.8 25.5 (95.2) 426.1 50.1% 43.5% 37.4% QoQ (%) -5.6% -10.9% -6.3% -31.9% 27.8% -13.5% -5.6% -0.8% -8.4%
3,522.9 46.6% 1,837.4 59.0% 1,552.9 84.1% 60.9 167.5% (301.3) 34.4% 1,312.4 104.5% 52.2% 44.1% 37.3% 8.4% 25.6% 39.5%
Rpbn Revenue COGS Gross Profit EBITDA Operating Cost Operating Profit Other Inc./Exp. Pre-Tax Profit Income Tax Net Profit Rpbn Cash & Investment Receivable Inventories Other Curr. Assets Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets Account Payables Other ST Liabilities Long Term Debt Other LT Liabilities Total Liabilities Equity
2008 3,846.2 1,985.4 1,860.8 1,440.1 546.4 1,314.4 12.3 1,326.7 (399.2) 927.6 2008 1,034.3 99.2 213.7 52.5 1,377.6 2,143.9 4,921.3 132.8 717.4 609.5 264.6 1,724.3 3,197.1 2008
2009 3,199.7 1,809.2 1,390.5 1,171.4 371.8 1,018.7 (10.5) 1,008.1 (300.7) 707.5 2009 682.2 65.0 192.1 25.0 1,603.5 2,277.5 4,845.4 92.5 587.0 30.3 322.1 1,031.9 3,813.5 2009 1,174 422.4 19.0 6,400 16,427
2010 3,592.7 1,821.2 1,771.4 1,597.6 371.9 1,399.5 (17.7) 1,381.8 (348.5) 1,033.3 2010 1,160.7 64.8 264.5 36.1 1,728.7 2,345.5 5,561.4 118.0 503.6 385.7 1,007.3 4,554.1 2010 1,170 415.1 17.1 7,000 29,292
2011F 4,161.8 1,869.8 2,292.0 2,111.2 382.3 1,909.7 90.1 1,999.8 (374.0) 1,625.8 2011F 1,511.4 83.2 388.9 24.7 1,892.9 2,724.0 6,625.1 172.8 472.2 450.5 1,095.5 5,529.6 2011F 1,204 426.8 17.0 7,258 34,497
2012F 4,378.7 2,022.0 2,356.6 2,207.3 391.5 1,965.1 90.9 2,056.1 (411.2) 1,644.8 2012F 2,171.6 87.6 411.8 28.4 2,041.4 2,933.8 7,674.7 186.9 500.9 470.2 1,158.1 6,516.5 2012F 1,321 468.4 17.0 7,258 31,048
Rpbn Net Income Depreciation Chg. In Working Capital CF from Operation Capex Others CF from Investment Change in Debt Others CF from Financing Net Cash Flow Cash at Start Cash at End
2008 927.6 114.8 (74.1) 968.3 (329.6) (270.2) (599.8) 138.1 (31.6) 106.5 475.0 558.4 1,034.3 2008
2009 707.5 142.6 74.7 924.8 (305.0) (228.9) (533.9) (709.4) (33.6) (743.0) (352.1) 1,034.3 682.2 2009 -16.8% -25.3% -22.5% -18.7% -23.7%
2010 1,033.3 197.4 114.7 1,345.5 (245.4) (164.5) (409.9) (228.1) (229.0) (457.1) 478.4 682.2 1,160.7 2010 12.3% 27.4% 37.4% 36.4% 46.1%
2011F 1,625.8 201.5 (168.6) 1,658.8 (300.0) (422.5) (722.5) (585.5) (585.5) 350.7 1,160.7 1,511.4 2011F 15.8% 29.4% 36.5% 32.1% 57.3%
2012F 1,644.8 242.2 (13.3) 1,873.7 (300.0) (275.3) (575.3) (638.2) (638.2) 660.3 1,511.4 2,171.6 2012F 5.2% 2.8% 2.9% 4.6% 1.2%
Growth (%) Revenue Gross Profit Operating Profit EBITDA Net Income Others (%) Gross Margin Operating Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROE ROA Net Gearing Valuation (x) PER PBV EV/EBITDA
Key Assumption FFB Harvested ('000 tonnes) FFB Third Parties ('000 tonnes) FFB Yield (tons/ha) CPO ASP (Rp/kg) Rubber ASP (Rp/kg)
48.4% 43.5% 49.3% 55.1% 53.8% 34.2% 31.8% 39.0% 45.9% 44.9% 37.4% 36.6% 44.5% 50.7% 50.4% 24.1% 22.1% 28.8% 39.1% 37.6% 29.0% 18.6% 22.7% 29.4% 25.2% 18.8% 14.6% 18.6% 24.5% 21.4% net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
PP London Sumatra
RESEARCH
Bagus Hananto bagus.hananto@ocap.co.id (62-21) 3190-1777 ext. 219
Sheila Yovita
sheila.yovita@ocap.co.id
EQUITY SALES
Dick Hermanto dick.hermanto@ocap.co.id (62-21) 3162-063
Widya Halim
halim.widya@ocap.co.id
(62-21) 3162-072
Maria Fransisca
maria.fransisca@ocap.co.id
(62-21) 3162-062
Chelsia Chen
chelsia.chen@ocap.co.id
(62-21) 3162-074
Agi Susanti
agi.susanti@ocap.co.id
(62-21) 3162-075
Siti Qobtiah
tia@ocap.co.id
(62-21) 3162-065
Supardi
supardi@ocap.co.id
(62-21) 3162-025
Rating Definitions
BUY: HOLD: SELL : We expect this stock to give total return of above 15% over the next 12 months. We expect this stock to give total return of between -15% up to 15% over the next 12 months. We expect this stock to give total return of -15% or lower over the next 12 months.
DISCLAIMER:
This report was produced by PT ONIX Capital Tbk., a member of Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The Information contained in this report has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable and the options, analysis, forecasts, projections and expectations contained in this report are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made that such information or opinion is accurate, complete or verified and it should not be replied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of PT ONIX Capital Tbk. who has to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT ONIX Capital Tbk. nor any officer or employee of PT ONIX Capital Tbk. accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT ONIX Capital Tbk. may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinions herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT ONIX Capital Tbk. may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies within this report. This report is a copyright of PT ONIX Capital Tbk. For further information please contact us at (62-21) 3190-1777 or fax (62-21) 3190-1616.