Introduction More unrest, more instability, more violence: for more democracy in the Arab world still has

to pay a high price. What began in December 2010 in Tunisia, spread like wildfire soon for many countries in North Africa and the Middle East from. Protests, riots and rebellions shook the autocratic systems of the region. In Egypt and Tunisia, the ruler of the rebels chased out of office. Libya fell into civil war, during which the NATO intervention influenced decisively. Syria is in a stalemate, the costly disputes between the government and the opposition continue. In other countries such as Morocco and Jordan, the regime responded to the protests, and so their social status in the short term at least stabilized.

In view of the insurgency in northern Africa, we learn every day, that democracy is a complicated thing. The talk of the sovereignty of the people prefer to stand out European leaders for the local national holidays. If the masses are as in Tunisia and Egypt on the road to hunt their leaders to hell, Merkel, Sarkozy and Obama beware of false partisanship: They would never give the angry masses just right, and Ben Ali and Mubarak ask themselves, to leave the country. Because these characters are its creatures and beautiful European democratic order is inextricably linked with this rule. Even if they do not perceive it that way, the insurgents run down there, so also against European interests. That is why Europe and the west lot at stake when a "dictator" as in Tunisia, the state power is simply out of hand - because the economic and social conditions in these countries have come in close consultation with and under the guidance of the EU about.

In the name of freedom of the people in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have shaken off their rulers in Syria there is protests unabated, and in some other Arab countries is also growing pressure on the authoritarian regime. As the situation in the Arab countries' future? People rebel against political despotism, human rights violations, corruption, high unemployment and rising food prices in their

countries. Is the Arab World at a crossroads? The popular uprising in Egypt could for the rest of - the Sunnidominated - Arab world model character. however, we see no push for democratization of the region, since most despotic regimes and were structurally aligned on the exploitation of their countries.Hosni Mubarak is toppled after a few weeks, mass protest. This was only possible because the army has urged Mubarak from office and the U.S. have helped it vigorously. Right now governed by a military council, the country up to the promised elections.

The crucial question however is: will the army give power? And it wants a majority of Egyptians at all?

The army had since the birth of the Egyptian republic in 1952, the backbone of the country. All the presidents were generals of modern Egypt, Hosni Mubarak was also one. It's hard to imagine that the army will abstain from their traditional political role. Whether the Egyptian people will accept that, we know it today. The overthrow Mubarak has not wanted the army, but when it was unavoidable, she has organized the relatively peaceful transition. Many Egyptians are grateful to them.

It is therefore quite possible that the overthrow Mubarak remains only one episode and stabilized the regime of the generals in a milder form. If you are looking for models for Egypt, Pakistan then appears as a possible. There is President, Government and Parliament, all elected properly democratic - but on the fundamental issues decided by the army. It acts while behind the scenes. This makes them less vulnerable.

The Tunisian dictator Ben Ali fled like a thief caught in his country. The kleptocrats was based

primarily on a heavily armed police. The Tunisian army is small and weak. When Ben Ali's fall could indeed play a crucial role, but in contrast to Egypt's army, they did not have the necessary weight to shape the future of the country. A number of groups currently competing for power in Tunisia. They are all more or less equally, or perhaps one should say: equally weak. This can lead to permanent instability.

Is contradicted, however, that Tunisia has a relatively strong, educated middle class. If it finds a political role, the country could stabilize quickly. Moreover, Tunisia is very small. Aid from Europe can act more quickly than in the gigantic Egypt. Tunisia, a small, in Europe in some form tailed state. That's one possibility.

In Libya, a look into the future, however, entirely bleak. We see at the moment a country that is deeply fissured between clans and tribes, but the devastation that it orders are still immense. The days Ghadhafis as absolute ruler of the country are to be counted, but it will be difficult after his final departure to strike a balance between the individual groups.

An internally decayed, weak country could be the result of the upheaval. A kind of Afghanistan or Somalia before the gates of Europe. Of a possible military intervention is already spoken.

Conclusion In conclusion the West should also talk with the Islamists. You must be excluded from any talks no solution, especially as the Muslim Brothers are often portrayed as less radical. Don't cheap to participate in conversations, even if they win by participating in democratic elections to influence in the region could harm the political process. The West is in Egypt and Tunisia to the democratic will the people of simply can not be annulled as of 2006 the election of Hamas.