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5 0 2.3453E8

=

= 0.00092

f X (5) =

2.5524 E11

500

5

b)

x

f(x)

3-150.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.0546 0.1866 0.2837 0.2528 0.1463 0.0574 0.0155 0.0028 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000

Let X denote the number of totes in the sample that exceed the moisture content. Then X is a binomial

random variable with n = 30. We are to determine p.

If P(X 1) = 0.9, then P(X = 0) = 0.1. Then

30 0

( p) (1 p )30 = 0.1 , giving 30ln(1p)=ln(0.1),

0

3-151.

Let t denote an interval of time in hours and let X denote the number of messages that arrive in time t.

Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 10t.

Then, P(X=0) = 0.9 and e-10t = 0.9, resulting in t = 0.0105 hours = 37.8 seconds

3-152.

a) Let X denote the number of flaws in 50 panels. Then, X is a Poisson random variable with

= 50(0.02) = 1. P(X = 0) = e-1 = 0.3679.

b) Let Y denote the number of flaws in one panel, then

P(Y 1) = 1 P(Y=0) = 1 e-0.02 = 0.0198. Let W denote the number of panels that need to be

inspected before a flaw is found. Then W is a geometric random variable with p = 0.0198 and

E(W) = 1/0.0198 = 50.51 panels.

0.02

c) P (Y 1) = 1 P (Y = 0) = 1 e

= 0.0198

Let V denote the number of panels with 1 or more flaws. Then V is a binomial random

variable with n=50 and p=0.0198

50

50

P(V 2) = 0.0198 0 (.9802) 50 + 0.01981 (0.9802) 49

0

1

50

+ 0.0198 2 (0.9802) 48 = 0.9234

2

Mind Expanding Exercises

3-153. The binomial distribution

P(X=x) =

n!

px(1-p)n-x

x!(n x )!

If n is large, then the probability of the event could be expressed as /n, that is =np. We

could re-write the probability mass function as:

P(X=x) =

n!

[/n]x[1 (/n)]n-x

x!(n x )!

Where p = /n.

P(X=x)

n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x + 1) x

(1 (/n))n-x

x

x!

n

3-29

And the first part of this can be re-expressed further as

[1 (/n)]n =

((1 - n ) )

n/

So:

P(X=x)=

n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x + 1) x

(1 - n )n/

x

x!

n

[1 (/n)]-x

Now:

In the limit as n

n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x + 1)

In the limit as n

[1 (/n)]-x 1

Thus:

x

P(X=x) =

n/

(

1- n)

x!

z

1

Limit z 1 + = e 2.7183

z

n/

= e. Thus,

In our case above n/ = z, so (1 - n )

x

P(X=x) =

e

x!

Limit n

n!

e x

px(1 p)n-x =

x!(n x )!

x!

The distribution of the probability associated with this process is known as the Poisson distribution.

The pmf can be expressed as:

f(x) =

e x

x!

To begin,

i =1

i =1

i =1

as

p (1 p)i 1 =

i =1

p

p

= =1

1 (1 p ) p

3-30

3-155.

a 1

b

i

i

i =1

= i =1

(b a + 1)

(b a + b + a )

=

2

b(b + 1) (a 1)a

2

2

(b a + 1)

(b a + 1)

(b + a)(b a + 1)

(b a + 1)

(b + a)

2

b

b 2

(b a + 1)(b + a ) 2

+

+

(

)

i

b

a

i

[i ]

4

i =a

i =a

i =a

=

V (X ) =

b + a 1

b + a 1

2

b(b + 1)(2b + 1) (a 1)a(2a 1)

b(b + 1) (a 1)a (b a + 1)(b + a )

(b + a )

+

6

6

2

4

=

b a +1

2

(b a + 1) 1

=

12

b

b+ a 2

2

3-156. Let X denote the number of nonconforming products in the sample. Then, X is approximately binomial with

p = 0.01 and n is to be determined.

If P ( X 1) 0.90 , then P ( X

Now, P(X = 0) =

( )p (1 p)

n

0

= 0) 0.10 .

= (1 p ) n . Consequently,

ln 0.10

= 229.11 . Therefore, n = 230 is required

ln(1 p )

3-157. If the lot size is small, 10% of the lot might be insufficient to detect nonconforming product. For example, if

the lot size is 10, then a sample of size one has a probability of only 0.2 of detecting a nonconforming

product in a lot that is 20% nonconforming.

If the lot size is large, 10% of the lot might be a larger sample size than is practical or necessary. For

example, if the lot size is 5000, then a sample of 500 is required. Furthermore, the binomial

approximation to the hypergeometric distribution can be used to show the following. If 5% of the lot of size

5000 is nonconforming, then the probability of zero nonconforming product in the sample is approximately

7 10 12 . Using a sample of 100, the same probability is still only 0.0059. The sample of size 500 might

be much larger than is needed.

3-31

3-158. Let X denote the number of panels with flaws. Then, X is a binomial random variable with n =100 and p is

the probability of one or more flaws in a panel. That is, p = 1 e

0.1

= 0.095.

P( X < 5) = P( X 4) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4)

0

100

1

99

2

98

= (100

+ (100

+ (100

0 ) p (1 p )

1 ) p (1 p )

2 ) p (1 p )

3

97

4

96

+ (100

+ (100

3 ) p (1 p )

4 ) p (1 p )

= 0.034

3-159. Let X denote the number of rolls produced.

Revenue at each demand

1000

2000

3000

0.3x

0.3x

0.3x

0 x 1000

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + 0.3x(0.7) - 0.1x

0.05x

0.3(1000) +

0.3x

0.3x

1000 x 2000

0.05(x-1000)

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + [0.3(1000) + 0.05(x-1000)](0.2) + 0.3x(0.5) - 0.1x

0.05x

0.3(1000) +

0.3(2000) +

0.3x

2000 x 3000

0.05(x-1000)

0.05(x-2000)

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + [0.3(1000)+0.05(x-1000)](0.2) + [0.3(2000) + 0.05(x-2000)](0.3) + 0.3x(0.2) - 0.1x

0.05x

0.3(1000) +

0.3(2000) +

0.3(3000)+

3000 x

0.05(x-1000)

0.05(x-2000)

0.05(x-3000)

mean profit = 0.05x(0.3) + [0.3(1000)+0.05(x-1000)](0.2) + [0.3(2000)+0.05(x-2000)]0.3 + [0.3(3000)+0.05(x3000)]0.2 - 0.1x

0

0.05x

0 x 1000

1000 x 2000

2000 x 3000

3000 x

Profit

0.125 x

0.075 x + 50

200

-0.05 x + 350

Max. profit

$ 125 at x = 1000

$ 200 at x = 2000

$200 at x = 3000

$200 at x = 3000

The bakery can make anywhere from 2000 to 3000 and earn the same profit.

3-160.Let X denote the number of acceptable components. Then, X has a binomial distribution with p = 0.98 and

n is to be determined such that P( X 100 ) 0.95 .

P( X 100 )

102

0.666

103

0.848

104

0.942

105

0.981

Therefore, 105 components are needed.

3-32

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