A Political Theory of Populism

A Political Theory of Populism
+
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Georgy Egorov
Northwestern University
Konstantin Sonin
New Economic School
July 2011
Abstract
When voters fear that politicians may have a right-wing bias or that they may be inuenced or
corrupted by the rich elite, signals of true left-wing conviction are valuable. As a consequence, even a
moderate politician seeking reelection chooses policies to the left of the median voter as a way of signaling
that he is not from the right. Truly right-wing politicians respond by choosing more moderate, or even
left-of-center policies. This leftist bias of policy is greater when the value of remaining in oce is higher
for the politician; when there is greater polarization between the policy preferences of the median voter
and right-wing politicians; when politicians are indeed more likely to have a hidden right-wing agenda;
and when there is intermediate amount of noise in the information that voters receive. We show that
similar results apply when some politicians can be corrupted or inuenced through other non-electoral
means by the rich elite.
Keywords: political economy, inequality, populism, voting, signaling.
JEL Classication: D71, D74, C71.
We thank Timothy Feddersen, John Hateld, Emir Kamenica, Jean Tirole, Francesco Trebbi, participants of
PIER Conference on Political Economy, the Political Economy in the Chicago Area Conference, Non-Democratic
Regimes Conference at Yale, Society for Economic Dynamics Conference in Montreal, the Econometric Society
World Congress in Shanghai, and seminars at Harvard and the New Economic School for valuable comments.
1 Introduction
There has recently been a resurgence of populist politicians in many developing countries, par-
ticularly in Latin America. Hugo Chvez in Venezuela, the Kirchners in Argentina, Evo Morales
in Bolivia, Alan Garca in Peru, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador are some of the examples. The
label populist is often used to emphasize that these politicians use the rhetoric of aggressively
defending the interests of the common man against the privileged elite. Hawkins (2003), for
example, describes the rise of Hugo Chvez in Venezuela in these terms, and writes:
If we dene populism in strictly political termsas the presence of what some
scholars call a charismatic mode of linkage between voters and politicians, and a
democratic discourse that relies on the idea of a popular will and a struggle between
the people and the elitethen Chavismo is clearly a populist phenomenon.
Given the high levels of inequality in many of these societies, political platforms built on
redistribution are not surprising. But populist rhetoric and policies frequently appear to be to
the left of the median voter, and such policies arguably often harm rather than help the majority
of the population. In the context of macroeconomic policy, Rudiger Dornbush and Sebastian
Edwards (1991) emphasized this left of the median aspect of populism and wrote:
Populist regimes have historically tried to deal with income inequality problems
through the use of overly expansive macroeconomic policies. These policies, which
have relied on decit nancing, generalized controls, and a disregard for basic eco-
nomic equilibria, have almost unavoidably resulted in major macroeconomic crises
that have ended up hurting the poorer segments of society.
We oer a simple model of populism dened, following Dornbusch and Edwards (1991), as
the implementation of policies receiving support from a signicant fraction of the population, but
ultimately hurting the economic interests of this majority.
1
More formally, populist policies will
be those that are to the left of the political bliss point of the median voter but still receive support
from the median voter. The key challenge is therefore to understand why politicians adopt such
1
We focus on left-wing populism which has been particularly prevalent in 20th century Latin America. In
the United States, in addition to left-wing populism of the Democratic presidential candidate William Jennings
Bryan or the Louisiana senator Kingsh Huey Long, a distinctive right-wing populism has been prevalent
(e.g., Norris, 2005). Right-wing populism typically combines anti-elitism with some right-wing agenda (e.g.,
anti-communism in the case of Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy or the state-rights agenda of the Alabama
governor and presidential candidate George Wallace, or small-government conservatism in the case of the Tea
Party these days). A model combining left- and right-wing extremists and dierent types of populist policies is
presented in Section 5.1.
1
policies and receive electoral support after doing so. Our starting point is that, as the above
examples suggest, the economies in question feature high levels of inequality and suciently
weak political institutions which enable the rich elites to have a disproportionate inuence on
politics relative to their numbers. In fact, in many of these societies political corruption and
political betrayal, where politicians using redistributive rhetoric end up choosing policies in
line with the interests of the rich elite, are quite common (examples would include the rule of
the PRI in Mexico, the policies of traditional parties in Venezuela and Ecuador, Fujimoris reign
in Peru and Menem in Argentina). This implies that voters often distrust politicians and believe
that they may adopt a rhetoric of redistribution, of leveling the playing eld and of defending
the interests of the common man, but then will pursue policies in the interests of the rich
elite. This makes it valuable for politicians to signal to voters that they do not secretly have a
right-wing agenda and are not in the pockets of the rich elite.
2
Formally, an incumbent politician chooses a policy r on the real line, and obtains utility
both from remaining in oce and also from the distance between the policy and his political
bliss point or ideal point (e.g., Wittman, 1973, Calvert, 1985, Besley and Coate, 1997, Osborne
and Slivinski, 1996). An incumbent politician can be of two types: (1) moderate, and (2) right-
wing. We also consider an extension where the preferences of the right-wing politicians are
endogenized in the sense that they are derived as a result of the bargaining between a moderate
but corruptible politician and the rich elite.
3
We normalize the political bliss point of the median
voter to 0, and assume that this is also the bliss point of the moderate politician.
4
The bliss
point of the right-wing politician is to the right of the median voters bliss point and we denote
it by / 0 (for bias). Voters observe a noisy signal : of the policy r of the incumbent, and
decide whether to reelect him for a second term or replace him with a new politician. Reecting
our discussion in the previous paragraph, the median voters main concern is that the politician
2
In applying these insights to the Latin American context one must confront the issue of soft term limits.
Most Latin American presidents of the postwar era have been term limited, but many have been able to use
constitutional referendums and other means to stand for a second term, and/or to signicantly increase their
powers.
For example, recently, Colombian president lvaro Uribe changed the constitution and was elected for a second
term in 2006. Bolivian president Evo Morales got approval of new constitution with relaxed term limits in
January 2009. In February 2009, a constitutional amendment allowing the Venezuelan president Hugo Chvez
to completely avoid term limits was approved. In Ecuador, Rafael Correa won approval to extend his term in
oce. In October 2009, the Nicaraguan constitutional court declared executive term limits to be unconstitutional,
allowing president Daniel Ortega to run for a second term.
3
Although this alternative might be a better representation of the fears of many voters in democracies with
weak institutions, we start with our baseline model without corruption because it illustrates the main ideas in a
more transparent manner.
4
Our results do not require the preferences of the moderate politician to coincide with those of the median
voter; it is sucient for them to be closer to those of the median voter than the preferences of the right-wing
politician.
2
may in truth be a right-winger and will implement a right-wing policy in his second term (or
that he is dishonest and will be corrupted by the rich elite).
Our main result is that in order to signal that he is not right-wing, moderate politicians will
choose populist policies to the left of the median voters bliss point, i.e., r < 0. Moreover, a
truly right-wing politician will also choose a policy to the left of his bliss point, i.e., r < /, and
may even choose a policy to the left of the median (i.e., r < 0) when the value of political oce
is suciently high. It is interesting that what produces the left-wing bias in politics is precisely
the strength of right-wing groups (in that either the incumbent politician may be secretly aligned
with these groups or they can bribe and inuence him). Because of their fear of reelecting a
politician who is a right-winger, voters support politicians choosing policies to the left of their
preferences, which can loosely be interpreted as policies that are not in their best interest as
in our denition of populism.
5
In addition to providing a novel explanation for the emergence of populist policies and
leaders, our model is tractable and leads to a range of intuitive comparative static results. First,
policies are more likely to be populist (or will have greater left-wing bias) when the value of
reelection to politicians is greater, since in this case both moderate and right-wing politicians
will try to signal to voters by choosing more left-wing policies. Second, populist policies are also
more likely when the probability that the politician is a right-winger is higher. Third, they are
also more likely when the probability that a politician can be corrupted is greater. Fourth, we
also show that, provided that the noise is suciently large, populist policies are also more likely
when there is greater polarization in society, meaning a bigger gap between the political bliss
points of the moderate politician (and the median voter) and the right-wing politician. This
is because, with greater polarization, the benet from reelection to both types of politicians is
greater, encouraging more populist policies in the rst period.
6
Finally, populist bias is also
greater when voters receive an intermediate amount of information about policies; when voters
receive too little information, choosing populist policies has little signaling value for politicians,
and when there is little noise, voters are unlikely to confuse the two types of politicians, again
dulling the incentives to signal.
All these results continue to hold in the version of the model where right-wing bias of some
politician results because of corruption. Interestingly, in this version, we also nd that the
rich elite may be worse o precisely because of their ability to bribe politicians. In particular,
5
In a model of right-wing populism, a similar logic would encourage policies biased to the right. In particular,
voters with right-wing views may support policies to the right of their bliss point because they may be afraid that
some politicians are secret left-wingers or even communists. See Section 5.1.
6
Counteracting this eect is that greater polarization also makes it more costly for right-wing politicians to
adopt populist policies. We describe the conditions under which this second eect is dominated.
3
the anticipation of such bribes to dishonest politicians changes the political equilibrium towards
more left-wing policies in the initial period, which is costly to the elite. This again highlights that
the underlying problem leading to populist politics in this model is the weakness of democratic
institutions and the potential non-electoral power of the elite.
Our paper is related to a number of literatures. First, there is now a sizable literature
on signaling in elections. Formal models that incorporate the cost of betrayal and signaling
concerns into the platform choice by a politician seeking his rst election date back to Banks
(1990) and Harrington (1993). In both models, voters learn about candidates behavior through
repeated sampling. Callander and Wilkie (2007) consider signaling equilibria in elections in
which participating politicians have dierent propensities to misinform voters about their true
preferences. Kartik and McAfee (2007) study a spatial model of elections in which a candidate
might be of a type committed to fulll his campaign pledge. Thus, a political position is a signal
to the voters about the candidates honesty. As a result, a candidate who is perceived to be
more likely to stick to his positition might win on an unpopular platform over an opponent who
caters to the median voters preferences.
Second, our paper is also related to several other works that use models in which politicians
or decision-makers have private information and are judged on the basis of performance or
messages that they send. Prendergast (1993) shows that workers have an incentive to conform
to the opinions and expectations of their superiors. Morris (2001) studies political correctness
using a model of communication incorporating related insights. Canes-Wrone, Herron, and
Shotts (2001) and Maskin and Tirole (2004) use similar ideas to show why leaders or elected
ocials may pander to the electorate. None of these papers discuss or derive populist bias
in politics. In addition, the framework we present is more tractable than many of the models
used in past work (because voters observe noisy signals rather than choices), and as a result, it
generates a unique equilibrium and a rich set of comparative statics.
Third, our paper is also related to various models of political agency. Austen-Smith and
Banks (1989), Besley (2005, 2006) and Persson and Tabellini (2000) present several dierent
approaches to political agency and the selection of politicians of dierent competences (see also
Caselli and Morelli, 2004, Messner and Polborn, 2004, Mattozzi and Merlo, 2007, and Acemoglu,
Egorov, and Sonin, 2010). Diermeier, Keane, and Merlo (2005) model and estimate the careers
of US congressmen.
Fourth, our work is related to the emerging literature on the elite capture of democratic
politics. Acemoglu and Robinson (2008) and Acemoglu, Ticchi and Vindigni (2010) emphasize
how a rich elite may be able to capture democratic politics and prevent redistributive policies.
Bates and La Ferrara (2001), Lizzeri and Persico (2005) and Padro-i-Miquel (2007), among
4
others, construct models in which certain forms of democratic competition may be detrimental
to the interests of the majority. Acemoglu, Robinson and Torvik (2011) analyze a model of
endogenous checks and balances. They show that in weakly-institutionalized democracies, voters
may voluntarily dismantle checks and balances on presidents as a way of increasing their rents
and making them more expensive to bribe for a better organized rich elite lobby. None of these
papers note or analyze the possibility of populist (left of the median) policies.
Finally, our paper is also related to a few papers investigating other aspects of populist
politics. Sachs (1989) discusses the populist cycle, where high inequality leads to policies that
make all groups worse o (because voters are shortsighted). Alesina (1989) emphasizes how
redistributive policies are captured by special interest groups.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces a basic model with
politicians diering in their policy preferences. In Section 3 we analyze the equilibria of the model
and study the comparative statics. In Section 4, we supplement our analysis by studying the
case where some politicians can accept bribes from the elite. Section 5 discusses two extensions.
Section 6 concludes, and the Appendix contains the proofs of all the results stated in the text.
2 Model
There is a population consisting of two groups of citizens, a rich elite and a poor majority, and
a pool of politicians. Policy space is represented by R. There are two periods, t = 1, 2, and in
each period there is a politician in power who chooses policy r
t
R. Citizens only care about
policy outcomes. In particular, we assume that the utility of citizen i is given by
n
i
(r
1
, r
2
) = n
v
(r
1
, r
2
) =
2
t=1
(r
t
v
)
2
(1)
if the citizen is rich, and by
n
i
(r
1
, r
2
) = n
n
(r
1
, r
2
) =
2
t=1
(r
t
n
)
2
(2)
if he is poor. Throughout, the superscript r stands for rich or right-wing, and : for moderate
or median voter.
7
These preferences imply that both types of citizens are averse to deviations
from their bliss policy. Without loss of generality, we set
n
= 0, and
v
= / 0. We interpret
this as the poor preferring more left-wing policies, such as creating a more level playing eld,
redistribution or investment in public goods favoring the poor, whereas the rich prefer lower
7
All of our results generalize to an environment where, instead of two groups, there is a distribution of
preferences, provided that the moderate politician is closer to the median voter than is the right-wing politician.
We chose the model with two groups to highlight that populist policies are not adopted to cater to the preferences
of some subgroupin our model, they will always be to the left of the preferences of all voters.
5
redistribution. Policies corresponding to r < 0 are thus to the left of the preferences of the
poor. The assumption that there is no discounting is adopted to save on notation.
8
Since there are only two groups of voters, and the poor form the majority, the median voter
is a poor agent, and
n
= 0 corresponds to the political bliss point of the median voter. It is
straightforward to see that preferences here are single peaked, and all our results would apply
if there are more types of voters diering according to their political bliss points, as long as the
median voter prefers
n
= 0 to
v
= /.
The politicians care about policy, oce, and potentially bribes. Their utility is given by
(r
1
, r
2
) =
2
t=1
_
c(r
t
)
2
+ \I
fin oce at tg
+ (1
t
C) I
faccepted bribe at tg
_
. (3)
Here, r
t
is the policy implemented at time t (by this or another politician), is the politicians
ideal policy, and c 0 is the sensitivity to policy choice (relative to voters sensitivity, which we
normalized to 1); \ is the utility from being in oce, 1
t
is the bribe that he may receive at time
t, and C is the cost he has to incur if he accepts a bribe. We consider two possible alternative
assumptions about the politicians type. First, we assume that there are two types of politician
that dier in their policy preferences (and do not allow bribes). A fraction j of politicians
are moderates and have a political bliss point identical to that of the median voter (a poor
agent) with political bliss point = 0. Motivated by the discussion of Latin American politics
in the Introduction, where voters may be concerned about politicians choosing more right-wing
policies than they would like, we assume that the remaining fraction 1 j are right-wingers
and have a political bliss point coinciding with that of the rich, = /. Voters do not directly
observe the type of the politician (so this type may be interpreted as the secret leaning of the
politician). The assumption that these political bliss points coincide with those of poor and rich
voters again serves to reduce notation. The important feature is that poor voters should prefer
to have a moderate in oce in the second period. Second, in Section 4, we consider a variant
where all politicians have the same policy preferences but dier in their honesty/corruptability.
In this version of the model, a fraction j are honest, while the remaining fraction 1 j are
dishonest and thus can be bribed by the elite. This assumption endogenizes the policies of
right-wing politicians as an outcome of bargaining between politicians and the elite. The results
we obtain in these two variants are very similar.
At the end of the rst period, there is an election in which the median voter decides whether
to reelect the incumbent politician or appoint a new one from the pool of potential politicians.
8
Introducing a discount factor would yield the following natural prediction: higher patience will lead to more
populist policies. The reason is that populism comes from trading o choosing ones ideal policy in the rst
term for a higher chance of reelection. More patient politicians care about reelection more, which leads to more
populist policies.
6
In particular, we model this by assuming that at the end of the rst period there is a challenger
of unknown type running against the incumbent. Prior to the elections, voters receive a noisy
(common) signal : = r
1
+ . about the policy r
1
chosen by the incumbent in the rst period,
where . is noise. Our interpretation for why voters observe a signal rather than the actual
policy is that both the exact nature and the (welfare) implications of policies take time to
be fully realized and understood, and also depend on (potentially unobserved) conditions. All
voters use this signal to update their priors about the politicians type and vote on the reelection
of the incumbent politician. We assume that they do so in a forward-looking (rational) manner
and vote to retain the incumbent only if their posterior that he is a moderate type (or honest
in the version in Section 4) is suciently high that they receive at least as high utility retaining
him as appointing a new politician.
We will look for a pure-strategy perfect Bayesian equilibrium of the game (in undominated
strategies), which ensures that the incumbent politician will be kept in power if the expected
utility of poor voters is at least as high if he remains in power as if a new politician is appointed.
9
The timing of events can be summarized as follows:
1. The politician in power at time t = 1 chooses policy r
1
R.
2. Voters obtain the signal : = r
1
+ ..
3. Elections take place, and each voter either supports the incumbent or the contender.
10
4. The politician in power at time t = 2 (the incumbent or newly elected politician) chooses
policy r
2
R.
5. All agents learn the realizations of r
1
and r
2
, and payos are realized (according to (1)
(3)).
We next impose the following two assumptions, which will be useful in establishing well-
dened unique best responses.
Assumption 1 The noise variable . has a distribution with support on (, +) with c.d.f.
1 (.) and p.d.f. ) (.). The p.d.f. ) (.) is symmetric around 0 and everywhere dierentiable, and
satises )
0
(.) < 0 for all . 0 (and thus )
0
(.) 0 for all . < 0).
9
The requirement that the perfect Bayesian equilibrium should be in undominated strategies is for the usual
reason that in voting games, non-intuitive equilibria can be supported when voters use weakly dominated strate-
gies.
10
For simplicity, we assume that whenever a voter is indierent, she supports the incumbent. In equilibrium
this happens with zero probability.
7
This assumption ensures that the density ) is single-peaked. Naturally, any mean zero normal
distribution A
_
0, o
2
_
as well as several other standard distributions satisfy this assumption.
Assumption 2 The p.d.f. of the noise variable . is suciently smooth in the sense that
)
0
(.)
<
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
(4)
for all ..
Lemma 1 in the Appendix shows that this assumption implies that ) (0) <
2
b
. In other
words, values close to zero are not too likely, and there is a sucient probability that there
will be large (negative or positive) realizations of the noise, i.e., Pr
_
[.[
b
4
_
1
4
. This feature
ensures that there is sucient uncertainty, which will guarantee that the relevant second-order
conditions hold and thus the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium. It is straightforward to
see that a normal distribution would satisfy this assumption if its variance is suciently large,
in particular, if o
2
b
2
2
+
W
2
p
2c
. One can also verify that until Section 4, it would be sucient to
impose (4) only for [.[ < /.
3 Analysis
We proceed by backward induction. At date t = 2, the politician in power solves the problem
max
a
2
2R
c(r
2
)
2
,
and therefore chooses his bliss point r
2
= (which equals
n
= 0 for a moderate politician and
v
= / for a right-wing politician). This implies that the poor majority strictly prefers to have
a moderate politician to a right-wing politician in power at date t = 2. Since the contender is a
moderate with probability j, the incumbent will win the elections only if the voters posterior
that he is moderate is no less than j.
Let us denote the equilibrium policy that a moderate politician chooses at time t = 1 by
r
1
= :, and the policy that a right-wing politician chooses by r
1
= r. It is intuitive that : < r,
and this result is formally established in Proposition 1. Clearly, the probability density of signal
: when policy r is chosen is given by ) (: r). Given the prior j, Bayesian updating gives the
posterior that the incumbent is a moderate by
^ j =
j) (: :)
j) (: :) + (1 j) ) (: r)
. (5)
Inspection of (5) shows that the posterior ^ j satises ^ j _ j if and only if
) (: :) _ ) (: r) . (6)
8
Intuitively, the right-hand side of (5) depends on : and r only through the likelihood ratio
j)(cn)
(1j))(cv)
, which must be at least
j
1j
(the corresponding ratio for the contender) if the incum-
bent is to be reelected; hence
)(cn)
)(cv)
_ 1. By Assumption 1, ) () is symmetric and single-peaked,
and thus (6) is equivalent to
: _
: + r
2
. (7)
The incumbent will be reelected if and only if condition (7) is satised. Therefore, the expected
probability of reelection for an incumbent as a function of his choice of policy r is
(r) = Pr
_
r + . _
: + r
2
_
(8)
= 1
_
: + r
2
r
_
.
Note that this probability does not depend on the type of the incumbent, only on his choice
of policy (since his type is private and does not aect the realization of the signal beyond his
choice of policy).
We next establish that the policy choice of a moderate politician is always to the left of that
of the right-winger, i.e., : < r, and summarize the discussion about incumbent reelection.
Proposition 1 Denote the equilibrium policy of a moderate politician at t = 1 by r
1
= : and
that of a right-wing politician by r
1
= r. Then:
1. : < r, i.e., moderate politicians always choose a more left-wing policy than right-wing
politicians;
2. the incumbent politician is reelected if and only if : _
n+v
2
.
Proof. See the Appendix.
Let us next investigate choices at date t = 1 more closely. A moderate incumbent solves the
following problem at date t = 1:
max
a2R
cr
2
+ \ (r) (1 j) c/
2
(1 (r)) . (9)
Here cr
2
is this politicians rst period utility, \ is his second period utility if he is reelected
(since in this case he will choose r
2
= 0, i.e., equal to his political bliss point), and (1 j) c/
2
is his expected second period utility if he is not reelected (with probability j the contender is
a moderate and will choose r
2
= 0, while with probability 1 j, a right-winger will come to
power and will choose r
2
= /). The rst-order condition for this problem is
2cr
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
)
_
: + r
2
r
_
= 0. (10)
9
Similarly, a right-wing incumbent solves the problem
max
a2R
c(r /)
2
+ \ (r) jc/
2
(1 (r)) . (11)
The explanation for this expression is identical and relies on the fact that the right-wing in-
cumbent will incur utility cost c/
2
only if he is not reelected and is replaced by a moderate
politician. The rst-order condition for this problem is
2c(r /)
_
\ + jc/
2
_
)
_
: + r
2
r
_
= 0. (12)
In equilibrium, (10) must hold when r = :, and (12) must hold when r = r. The symmetry
of ) implies
)
_
: + r
2
:
_
= )
_
r :
2
_
= )
_
:r
2
_
= )
_
: + r
2
r
_
,
so the equilibrium can be characterized in terms of the intersection of two reaction curves:
11
2c:
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
)
_
r :
2
_
= 0, (13)
2c(r /)
_
\ + jc/
2
_
)
_
r :
2
_
= 0. (14)
Mathematically, (10) depicts the equilibrium value of the policy of moderate politicians, :,
when right-wing politicians are choosing policy r. Conversely, (12) depicts the equilibrium value
of the policy of right-wingers when moderates are choosing :. Figure 1 plots these two curves
in the relevant region : < r.
Conditions (13) and (14) immediately imply that : < 0 and r < /, i.e., both types of
politicians in equilibrium choose policies which lie to the left of their political bliss points. For a
moderate politician, this implies a populist policy choicei.e., to the left of the median voters
political bliss point (we will also see that we might even have r < 0). This is for an intuitive
reason: for both types of politicians, a move to the left starting from their political bliss points
creates a second-order loss in the rst period, but delivers a rst-order increase in the probability
of reelection and thus a rst-order expected gain.
The result that there will be a left bias in policies does not rely on positive benets from
holding oce (\ 0), though we will establish later that higher levels of \ increase this bias.
This is because even when \ = 0, each politician wants to be reelected because otherwise his
preferred policy will be implemented with probability less than one. This eect alone is sucient
for a left bias in policy choice of both types.
11
Note, however, that these are not best response maps as we have already substituted for the equilibrium
conditions that (10) must hold at x = a and (12) at x = b.
10
-0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
moderate (m)
right-wing (r)
Figure 1: Reaction curves of moderate (red/thick) and right-wing (green/thin) politicians. The
distribution ) is taken to be normal and the parameter choices are \ = j = o =
1
2
and
/ = c = 1.
Inspection of Figure 1 also provides a more detailed intuition for the results and the unique-
ness of equilibrium. The reaction curve of moderate politicians is upward-sloping, while the
reaction curve of right-wing politicians is downward-sloping. Formally, these statements follow
from dierentiating (10) and (12) with respect to : and r. The key observation is that the me-
dian voter will decide whether to reelect the incumbent politician depending on whether
)(cn)
)(cv)
exceeds 1. A politician may ensure that he is reelected with an arbitrarily large probability if
he chooses an extreme left-wing policy, but this is clearly costly as the policy would be very far
away from his bliss point. The relevant trade-o for both types of politicians is therefore be-
tween choosing a policy close to their bliss point on the one hand and deviating from their bliss
point and increasing their reelection probability on the other. But how much this deviation will
increase their reelection probability depends on the expectations of the median voter concerning
what types of policies both types of politicians will adopt. Formally, the question is whether a
small change in policy will increase
)(cn)
)(cv)
from below 1 to above 1 (which thus requires that
)(cn)
)(cv)
is in some --neighborhood of 1). Suppose, for example, that right-wing politicians are
expected to choose a more left-wing policy than before. This would make the policies of the two
types closer, and it becomes harder for voters to distinguish one type of politician from another
(equivalently,
)(cn)
)(cv)
is more likely to be in any given --neighborhood of 1). In response, it
would be optimal for moderate politicians to choose an even more left-wing policy in order to
11
distinguish themselves and get reelected with a high probability. This is the reason why (13) is
upward-sloping.
Why is (14) downward-sloping? Consider the situation in which moderate politicians are
expected to choose more left-wing policies. One might, at rst, expect that the same reasoning
should push right-wing politicians to also choose more left-wing policies. But since : < r, a
further shift to the left by moderate politicians will make it more likely that the median voter
will be able to distinguish moderate than right-wing politicians (or more formally,
)(cn)
)(cv)
is now
less likely to be in any given --neighborhood of 1, and thus a small shift to the left by right-wing
politicians is less likely to win them the election). This reduces the potential gains from choosing
further left-wing policies for right-wing politicians and encourages them to choose policies more
in line with their own policy preferences.
The above discussion ensures the uniqueness of equilibrium. Then characterizing this equi-
librium is straightforward. Let us combine (13) and (14) to obtain
r = :
\ + jc/
2
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+ /. (15)
Therefore, the equilibrium level of populist bias (of moderate politicians), j = [:[ = :, is
given by
2cj =
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
)
_
j
2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+
/
2
_
. (16)
Proposition 2 There exists a unique (perfect Bayesian) equilibrium (in pure strategies). In
this equilibrium, politicians choose their preferred policy in the second period. In the rst period,
politicians choose policies which lie to the left of their preferred policy. In particular, moderate
politicians necessarily choose a populist policy to the left of the political bliss point of the median
voter.
Proposition 2 thus shows that a unique equilibrium always exists (given our assumptions),
and that this equilibrium will always feature leftist bias by both types of politicians, and populist
policies (to the left of the median voter) by moderate politicians. The intuition for this result
was already provided above.
We next provide several comparative static results, rst focusing on the populist bias of the
modern politician, j = [:[.
Proposition 3 The populist bias of moderate politicians, j = [:[, is higher when:
1. \ is higher (i.e., politicians value being in oce more);
12
2. j is lower (i.e., moderate politicians are rarer);
3. c is lower, provided that \ ,= 0 (i.e., changing political positions is relatively costless for
politicians).
These comparative static results are fairly intuitive. A higher utility from remaining in oce
increases the incentives for reelection and thus encourages greater signaling by choosing more
left-wing policies. Consequently, moderate politicians end up choosing more populist policies.
The comparative static result with respect to c has a similar intuition: when c is lower, this
utility from choosing a policy dierent from their bliss point is less important relative to the gain
of utility from remaining in oce, and this encourages more signaling and thus more left-wing
policies by both politicians.
The comparative statics with respect to jthe share of politicians that are moderateis
a little more subtle. When j is lower, the probability that a new politician will be moderate
is lower. This makes it more costly for moderate politicians not to be reelected and induces
them to choose policies further to the left. There is a countervailing eect, however, because
the same calculus implies that right-wing politicians have less to fear from not being reelected,
which makes them choose less left policies; because the reaction curve of moderate politicians
is upward-sloping, this eect induces them to choose policies biased to the left relative to the
preferences of the median voter. Nevertheless, when the density ) is not high enough (in
particular when it satises Assumption 2), the latter eect is dominated by the former, and the
populist bias of moderate politicians increases.
We next investigate the comparative statics of the policy choice of right-wing politicians. To
do this, let us substitute for : from (15) into (14). Denoting the bias of right-wing politicians
by = [r /[ = / r 0 (the inequality follows from (14)), we obtain
2c =
_
\ + jc/
2
_
)
_
2
c/
2
(1 2j)
\ + jc/
2
+
/
2
_
(17)
Notice the similarity between this expression and (16), which underlies the similar comparative
statics summarized in the next proposition.
Proposition 4 The policy bias of right-wing politicians, = [r /[, is higher when:
1. \ is higher (i.e., politicians value being in oce more);
2. j is higher (i.e., moderate politicians are more frequent);
13
3. c is lower, provided that \ ,= 0 (i.e., changing political positions is relatively costless for
politicians).
These results for \ and c are the same as for moderate politicians in Proposition 3, and the
intuition is similar: to get reelected, right-wing politicians need to pretend to be moderate ones;
higher \ makes this even more important and lower c makes it less costly, hence their bias
of right-wing politicians is higher. The comparative statics with respect to j is the opposite,
which is natural: now, a higher j makes it more likely that in the case of loss of elections, the
second-period politician will be right-wing and will implement the incumbents desired policy /.
The question of whether the bias of right-wing politicians will be large enough so that
they actually choose populist policies r < 0 (i.e., whether /) is of particular interest. In
particular, when this is the case, not only moderate but also right-wing politicians will choose
populist policies. The next result gives an answer to this question.
Proposition 5 1. In the absense of direct benets from holding oce (i.e., if \ = 0), right-
wing politicians never choose policies to the left of median voters political bliss point (i.e.,
we have r 0 :).
2. The bias of right-wing politicians is increasing (and policy choice r is decreasing) in \.
3. For \ 0 large enough, the equilibrium will involve : < r < 0, i.e., /.
When there are no direct benets or rents from holding oce (i.e., \ = 0), then right-wing
politicians will never bias their policies so much to the left as to end up to the left of the median.
This is because the cost of not getting reelected is to see the political bliss point of a moderate
politician, which is the same as the median voters bliss point, implemented.
12
Higher benets
from holding oce, on the other hand, increase the left bias of not only moderate politicians,
but also of right-wing politicians. Consequently, for suciently high values of \, remaining
in oce is so valuable for right-wing politicians that they may also end up choosing populist
policies.
Our next result shows that under an additional assumption on the form of the noise, an
increase in polarization (corresponding to a bigger gap between the bliss points of moderate
and right-wing politicians) also increases populist bias, provided that the utility from holding
12
This result continues to hold, a fortiori, if the future is discounted. But if the second period is more important
in politicians uility than the rst period, then there may be populist bias in right-wing politicians choices even
with W = 0.
14
oce is not too large. To simplify the conditions needed for the results to hold, we will impose
that the distribution of the noise . is normal. The proof of the proposition suggests that this
assumption can be replaced by a stronger version of Assumption 2.
Proposition 6 Suppose that noise . is normally distributed. Then:
1. If \ is suciently small (close to 0) and o
b
2
, then an increase in polarization /
increases the populist bias of moderate politicians.
2. As \ increases, the eect of polarization on the populist bias diminishes.
This proposition shows that, under additional assumptions as stated, populist policies are
more likely when there is greater polarization in society, meaning a bigger gap between the
political bliss points of the median voter and the moderate politician on the one hand and that
of the right-wing politician on the other. There is a simple intuition underlying this result:
with greater polarization, the benet from reelection to both types of politicians is greater,
encouraging more populist policies in the rst period. However, the result is not unambiguous
(hence the need for imposing the additional conditions) because there is also a countervailing
eect: greater polarization also makes it more dicult for right-wing politicians to masquerade
as moderate ones, which also decreases the need for moderate ones to choose populist policies.
If the signal is suciently noisy and if politicians do not care too much about the oce, the
second eect is dominated. As incumbents begin to care about the oce more, there will be
more populism for any degree of polarization (Proposition 3), and further polarization will not
have a major impact.
We next investigate the relationship between the noisiness of signal . and the bias of moderate
and right-wing politicians. To do this in a tractable way, let us again assume that distribution
of . is normal, which enables us to measure noisiness of the signal . by its variance o
2
. The
next proposition summarizes our results.
Proposition 7 Suppose that noise . is normally distributed with variance o
2
. An increase in
o
2
rst increases and then decreases the left bias of both moderate and right-wing politicians, j
and . Both of these biases are maximized when
o = o
=
/
4
_
_
1 +
_
1 + (1 2j)
_
8
c
_
_
.
(If o
is such that it does not satisfy Assumption 2, then populist bias is decreasing in variance
for all feasible values of o).
15
The intuition behind this nonmonotonicity is simple. When there is little noise, politicians
only have limited incentives to bias policy as voters are unlikely to confuse the two types of
politicians. When there is too much noise, on the other hand, the resulting signal is often very
dierent from the policy and politicians incentives to signal by biasing policy are again limited.
Proposition 7 thus highlights that populist bias (of both moderate and right-wing politicians) is
driven neither by very precise nor very imprecise information about politicians policy choices,
but is in fact more likely to occur for moderate informativeness of policy signals.
Finally, since the populist bias of politics in this model is driven by politicians eorts to get
reelected, it is also interesting to consider whether term limits would improve welfare. (Here, by
term limits we mean the hard constraints, not the soft term limits which may be violated by
a suciently popular politician.) It is straightforward to see that with term limits restricting
politicians to a single term, politicians will simply set policy equal to their bliss point. Let us
focus on the eects of term limits on the welfare of poor voters as given by (2).
13
Term limits will
have three eects on the welfare of poor voters. First, the policy choice of moderate politicians
in the rst period will be closer to their bliss point. Second, the policy choice of right-wing
politicians will generally be further away from their bliss point (unless without term limits, they
would have chosen such extreme populist policies that they are further away on the left from
the poor than they would have been on the right with policies in line with their preferences).
Third, the likelihood of a moderate politician in the second period will be lower (since poor
voters would lose the ability to select only politicians who are likely to be moderate).
The next proposition shows that the welfare of poor voters may be higher or lower under
term limits, and also characterizes the eect of various parameters on whether term limits will
increase their welfare. It shows that despite the populist bias of policies in the absence of (strong)
term limits, term limits may make (poor) voters worse oparticularly when the populist bias
of policy is limited because of politicians low benets from holding oce (low \) or because
of their strong policy concerns (high c).
Proposition 8 The welfare of poor voters (and the utalitarian welfare of the society as a whole)
can be higher or lower under term limits. Higher \ and lower c make it more likely that welfare
is higher under terms limits. The absence of term limits is better for poor voters if politicians
are not oce-motivated (\ is low), or if policy preferences, rather than reelection concerns,
determine their policy choices (c is high).
13
We can also consider a utilitarian social welfare measure, which will be similar provided that poor voters are
suciently more numerous.
16
4 Corruption
We have so far assumed that politicians have policy preferences that are private information and
some politicians may (secretly) have right-wing preferences. Politicians then choose policies to
signal to the voters that they do not have such right-wing preferences. While such policy prefer-
ences are plausible, they may also be endogenously driven by the fact that some politicians are
(unduly) inuenced, or even captured by the elite. This is particularly relevant in weak democ-
racies, such as many in Latin America, where the rich elite have several non-electoral means
of inuencing politics (including lobbying or direct bribery) and may have a disproportionate
impact on policies. In this section, we investigate the implications of voters concern that politi-
cians may be unduly inuenced by the rich elite. In doing so, we endogenize the extent of the
right-wing preferences of some (corruptible) politicians, which will now depend on the intensity
of their preferences relative to the preferences of the elite.
To focus on the main issue at hand, we now assume that politicians are identical in terms
of their policy preferences (and without sacricing qualitative conclusions, these coincide with
the preferences of the majority of the electorate), but instead, a fraction j of politicians are
honest in the sense that they cannot or will not accept bribes, while the remaining 1 j share
are dishonest and thus corruptible. The bribing process is potentially imperfect (inecient),
and we capture this by assuming that whenever there is such a transaction, the parties must
incur cost C _ 0 to avoid being detected. This introduces a parameter that will be useful for
comparative statics (and we could set C = 0). More precisely, let us assume that it is the
politician who incurs the cost C. The surplus of the transaction is split between the rich elite
and the politician in power, and the politician receives a share (of the remaining surplus, i.e.,
the surplus minus the cost C).
The timing of the new game is therefore as follows.
1. The politician in power at time t = 1 and the elite bargain over r
1
(if the politician is
dishonest), and the politician chooses policy r
1
R.
2. Voters obtain the signal : = r
1
+ ..
3. Voters vote, and decide whether to replace the current incumbent with a random one
drawn from the pool of potential politicians.
4. The politician in power at time t = 2 (the incumbent or newly elected politician) and the
elite bargain over r
2
, and the politician chooses policy r
2
R.
17
5. All agents learn the realizations of r
1
and r
2
, and payos are realized according to (1)
(3).
The timing and the structure of the game is very similar to that in Section 2, except for
the bargaining between the politician and the elite in stages 1 and 4. Note that parameter
c, which has so far captured the intensity of politicians policy preferences may now be given
dierent/complementary interpretations. First, a small c may also correspond to (or result
from) a large size of the elite, which would make bribing politicians relatively inexpensive for
the elite, so that the policy choice of the politician is easier to manipulate. Conversely, a large c
could be interpreted as the elite constituting a relatively small group of the population. Second,
a large c can also be interpreted as the politician standing in for a large bureaucracy, thus
increasing the monetary and transactional costs of bribing.
As before, we start our analysis with the second period. Then, an honest politician will
choose his bliss point r
I
2
= 0. A corruptible politician, on the other hand, will bargain with the
elite, and the equilibrium policy is determined from the joint maximization of the sum of their
surpluses (as long as the surplus exceeds C). Namely, they maximize
max
a
c
2
2R
_
c(r
c
2
)
2
(r
c
2
/)
2
_
,
which yields
r
c
2
=
/
1 + c
. (18)
Naturally, a higher c, which corresponds either to a greater weight on politicians preferences or
smaller elite that will benet from biasing the policy, implies a policy closer to the politicians
political bliss point. As a consequence, the second period joint utility of a dishonest politician
in power and the elite is
\
c/
2
c + 1
,
and the gain in utility, as compared to the status-quo \ /
2
(since without the bribe, the
politician would choose r
c
2
= 0), is
b
2
c+1
C. This means that bribing in the second period will
occur only if
C <
/
2
c + 1
. (19)
In this case, we can simply determine the bribe 1
2
from the equation
c(r
c
2
)
2
+ 1
2
C =
_
/
2
c + 1
C
_
,
which implies
1
2
=
_
+
c
c + 1
_
/
2
c + 1
+ (1 ) C.
18
Interestingly, the eect of the intensity of politicians preferences c on the bribe is nonmonotonic:
the bribe reaches its maximum at c =
1
1+
; for lower c, the bribe is smaller because the politician
is very cheap to persuade, and for very large c, the politician is too hard to bribe, hence in the
limit the bribe vanishes.
The following proposition characterizes several useful features of the equilibrium.
Proposition 9 Suppose that C is such that (19) holds. Then:
1. In the second period, honest politicians choose r
I
2
= 0, while corrupt politicians choose
r
c
2
=
b
1+c
;
2. In the rst period, honest and corrupt politicians choose policies r
I
1
= : and r
c
1
= r such
that : < r;
3. The median voter prefers to have an honest politician in the second period, and reelects
the incumbent politician if and only if he receives a signal
: _
: + r
2
.
Part 1 of Proposition 9 was established earlier, while Parts 2 and 3 are similar to the results
established in Proposition 1 in the case without bribery.
Let us next turn to the rst-period problem. If the second period involves no bribing, then in
the rst period politicians have no reelection concerns because in this case voters are indierent
between the incumbent and the challenger (and we have assume that that when indierent,
they reelect the incumbent). As a consequence, politicians will solve an identical problem in
the second period, and thus the solution is the same and involves no corruption either. The
interesting case where dishonest politicians accept bribes in the second period (which is the case
when (19) holds) is the one studied in Proposition 9. In this case, the probability of reelection
of a politician who chooses policy r is again given by (8). An honest politician does not accept
bribes and thus solves the problem
max
a2R
cr
2
+ \ (r) (1 j) c
_
/
1 + c
_
2
(1 (r)) . (20)
Note that this problem is the same as (9), except that when the honest incumbent is replaced by
a dishonest politician, his utility is c
_
b
1+c
_
2
instead of c/
2
(since the second period policy
in this case will be given by (18)). This maximization problem gives the rst-order condition
2cr
_
\ + (1 j) c
_
/
1 + c
_
2
_
)
_
: + r
2
r
_
= 0. (21)
19
A dishonest politician bargains with the elite both in the rst and second periods. In
the rst period, bargaininganticipating the second-period choicesgives the following joint
maximization problem
max
a2R
_
_
_
cr
2
(r /)
2
+
_
\
cb
2
c+1
C
_
(r)
(1 j)
_
cb
2
c+1
+
_
+
c
c+1
_
b
2
c+1
+ (1 ) C
_
(1 (r)) j/
2
(1 (r))
_
_
_
. (22)
The rst two terms relate to the rst periods utilities of the incumbent and the elite, respectively.
If this (dishonest) politician is reelected, then together with the elite he jointly obtains second-
period utility \
cb
2
c+1
C. If he is not reelected but another dishonest politician comes to
power, their joint utility is
cb
2
c+1
1
2
(the same policy is implemented and the elite have to
pay the same second-period bribe, but the current incumbent receives neither the direct benets
from holding oce nor the bribes, nor has he to pay the cost C). Finally, if an honest politician
is elected, the incumbent and the elite together obtain /
2
. The rst-order condition of their
maximization problem gives:
2cr 2 (r /)
_
\ (j + j) C +
/
2
(c + j)
(1 + c)
2
+
(1 j) /
2
1 + c
_
)
_
: + r
2
r
_
= 0.
(23)
Since rst-order conditions (21) and (23) must be satised in equilibrium for r = : and
r = r, respectively, the equilibrium is now characterized by the following two equations:
2c:
_
\ +
(1 j) c/
2
(1 + c)
2
_
)
_
r :
2
_
= 0 (24)
and
2cr 2 (r /)
_
\ (j + j) C +
/
2
(c + j)
(1 + c)
2
+
(1 j) /
2
1 + c
_
)
_
r :
2
_
= 0. (25)
From (24) and (25), we obtain
r =
1
c + 1
_
_
/ +
c:
_
\ (j + j) C +
b
2
(c+j)
(1+c)
2
+
(1j)b
2
1+c
_
\ +
(1j)cb
2
(1+c)
2
_
_
.
Plugging this into (24) and denoting, as before, the populist bias (of honest politicians) by
j = [:[ = :, we have the following equilibrium condition for populist bias:
2cj =
_
\ +
(1 j) c/
2
(1 + c)
2
_
)
_
_
/
2 (1 + c)
+ j
\
(1j)cb
2
1+c
+
b
2
c(12jcj)
(1+c)
2
+ (j + j) C
2 (1 + c)
_
\ +
(1j)cb
2
(1+c)
2
_
_
_
.
(26)
The next proposition follows from our analysis so far and from this expression.
20
Proposition 10 Suppose (19) holds (so there is corruption in the second period when the politi-
cian is dishonest). Then:
1. There exists a unique equilibrium (in pure strategies). In this equilibrium, honest politicians
choose populist policies in the rst period (i.e., : < 0). Dishonest politicians accept a bribe.
2. When \ = = 0, dishonest politicians will not choose populist policies, i.e., r 0. When
\ is suciently high, dishonest politicians will choose populist policies, i.e., we may have
r < 0.
The intuition for why honest politicians now choose populist policies is similar to before: a
small move to the left starting from their political bliss point has a second-order cost in terms
of rst-period utility, and a rst-order gain in terms of the probability of reelection and second-
period utility. The last part of the result suggests that if dishonest politicians do not value being
in power per se (obtaining neither direct benets from being in oce nor positive rights), then
the equilibrium will never involve populist policies in the rst period. This is because reelection
has limited benets for dishonest politicians and this makes populist policies jointly too costly
for the elite and the politician. The converse case is more interesting. In this case, even though
dishonest politicians are eectively representing the wishes of the elite (because of bribery), they
will still choose populist policies in the rst period so as to increase their likelihood of coming
to power and obtaining higher utility (from the benet of holding oce, and perhaps from a
higher share of surplus from corruption) in the second period.
The comparative static results of populist bias are again intuitive, but they also help us to
further clarify the nature of the results in this case.
Proposition 11 Suppose that (19) holds. Then, the populist bias of honest politicians, j = [:[,
is higher when:
1. \ is higher (greater direct utility from holding oce);
2. C is lower (greater gains from the election for dishonest politicians because bribing is more
ecient);
3. is higher (dishonest politicians have higher bargaining power vis--vis the elite);
4. j is lower (honest politicians are relatively rare).
21
A higher \ makes both politicians value reelection more; they thus engage in more signaling
(by choosing more populist policies). A lower C increases the joint utility of the elite and
the incumbent in case of reelection, and this makes dishonest politicians choose more left-wing
policies, which in turn enables honest politicians to do the same. A higher makes holding oce
more valuable for dishonest politicians. This again makes them seek oce more aggressively by
choosing policies that are more left-wing, and honest politicians respond by also changing their
policies to the left. Since they were already to the left of the median voter, this increases the
populist bias of honest politicians. Finally, if honest politicians are rare, it makes them even
more willing to signal because the populations prior is that dishonest politicians are the norm,
not the exception.
Our discussion so far suggests that the potential corruption of politicians empowers the elite
to secure policies that are more favorable to their interest. However, as we emphasized in the
Introduction, there is a countervailing eect: the fact that the elite will be able to inuence
politics leads to equilibrium signaling by choosing more left-wing policies. In fact, we have seen
that this always makes honest politicians choose populist policies to the left of the preferences
of the median voter. This raises the possibility that the elites ability to bribe politicians may
actually harm them (by creating a strong left-wing bias in the rst period). The next proposition
shows that when \ is suciently large, the elite may be worse o when they are able to bribeas
compared to a hypothetical world where they are never able to inuence politics via bribes.
Proposition 12 There exists

\ such that if \

\, the elite are better o when (19) does
not hold (i.e., if C is high enough) as compared to the case in which it holds (or in the extreme,
where C = 0).
Intuitively, when politicians receive sucient rents from holding oce, policy choices by both
honest and dishonest politicians will be more to the left, and as a result, despite their ability
to bribe dishonest politicians, the elite will end up with rst-period policies that are very far
from their preferences. In this case, they may have lower utility than a situation without the
possibility of bribery (which would have led to the implementation of the median voters bliss
point in both periods). This result thus shows that weak institutions, which normally empower
the elite, may in the end create sucient policy distortions so as to make them worse o, because
of the endogenous response of democratic policies, even if democracy works only imperfectly.
22
5 Extensions
5.1 Right-Wing and Left-Wing Extremism
Motivated by Latin American politics, we have so far focused on a model in which the possibility
that politicians may be secretly right-wing (or inuenced by the rich elite) creates a populist
bias in policies. In practice, fear of left leanings of politicians may also induce a bias to the right
in their policies in an eort to signal that they are not secretly left-wing. In this subsection,
we briey characterize the structure of equilibria when politicians may be either left-wing or
right-wing. We will show that voters will not reelect any incumbent that generates a signal that
is extreme to either side, and we will also show that policy will be endogenously biased in the
opposite direction from the preferences of the extremist that is more likely.
Suppose that, as before, with probability j the politician is a moderate and has bliss point
n
= 0. With complementary probability 1 j, the politician is an extremist; he is right-wing
with probability j
v
(0, 1 j) with bliss point
v
= / 0, and left-wing with probability
j
|
with bliss point
|
= /. The assumption that the absolute value of the biases of the two
extremists are the same is adopted to simplify notation and algebra, and ensures that the median
voter is equally averse to either type of extremist. Throughout this subsection, we hold j xed
and vary j
|
and j
v
so that j
|
+ j
v
= 1 j. This enables us to study how the likelihood of the
two classes of extremists aects the equilibrium policy biases. We also simplify the analysis by
assuming that . is normally distributed with variance o
2
and that o
2
is suciently high.
Clearly, in the second period, each politician is going to choose his ideal policy r
2
/, 0, /,
and thus the median voter will reelect the incumbent only if the posterior that the incumbent
is moderate, ^ j, is at least j. To characterize the rst period strategies r
1
of the three types of
politicians, let us denote the policy choices of left-wing, moderate, and right-wing politicians by
|, :, and r, respectively. In the Appendix, we prove that in equilibrium we must have | < : < r.
We simplify the analysis here by imposing this property. When the median voter observes signal
:, then his posterior that the politician is moderate will be
^ j =
j) (: :)
j) (: :) + j
|
) (: |) + j
v
) (: r)
. (27)
The condition ^ j _ j simplies to
j
|
() (: :) ) (: |)) + j
v
() (: :) ) (: r)) _ 0, (28)
which, given the normal distribution, is equivalent to
j
|
_
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
___
+ j
v
_
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
r + :
2
___
_ 0.
(29)
23
In the Appendix, we show that the set of signals : for which (29) is satised is an interval [:
|
, :
I
],
where these thresholds are given by :
|
= :
|
(|, :, r) and :
I
= :
I
(|, :, r) as functions of the policy
choices of the three types of politicians. Moreover, < :
|
<
|+n
2
and
n+v
2
< :
I
< +. This
implies that a politician is perceived to be moderate and is reelected if the realized policy (signal)
is not too extreme in either direction.
For a politician choosing policy r
1
= r in the rst period, the probability of reelection is
therefore given by
(r) = Pr (:
|
< r + . < :
I
) = 1 (:
I
r) 1 (:
|
r) .
Thus, a moderate incumbent solves the problem
max
a2R
cr
2
+ \ (r) (1 j) c/
2
(1 (r)) ,
which uses the fact that either type of extremist will choose the policy that is / away from his
bliss point, implying a disutility of /
2
for the moderate type. The rst-order condition for a
modern incumbent is therefore
2cr
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
() (:
I
r) ) (:
|
r)) = 0. (30)
Our focus on suciently high variance o
2
ensures that the second-order condition is also satised.
The problem of a left-wing incumbent also factors in the probability, j
v
, of a right-wing
extremist coming to power in the next period and choosing a policy 2/ away from his bliss point,
as well as the probability, j, that a moderate will come to power and choose a policy / away
from his bliss point. This problem can thus be written as
max
a2R
c(r + /)
2
+ \ (r)
_
jc/
2
+ j
v
c(2/)
2
_
(1 (r)) ,
and has rst-order condition
2c(r + /)
_
\ + (j + 4j
v
) c/
2
_
() (:
I
r) ) (:
|
r)) = 0. (31)
Similarly, for a right-wing incument, the problem is
max
a2R
c(r /)
2
+ \ (r)
_
jc/
2
+ j
|
c(2/)
2
_
(1 (r)) ,
with the rst-order condition
2c(r /)
_
\ +
_
j + 4j
|
_
c/
2
_
() (:
I
r) ) (:
|
r)) = 0. (32)
24
In equilibrium, (30), (31), and (32) must hold for r = :, |, r, respectively. This implies that
the following three conditions characterize an equilibrium
2c(| + /)
_
\ + (j + 4j
v
) c/
2
_
() (:
I
|) ) (:
|
|)) = 0, (33)
2c:
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
() (:
I
:) ) (:
|
:)) = 0, (34)
2c(r /)
_
\ +
_
j + 4j
|
_
c/
2
_
() (:
I
r) ) (:
|
r)) = 0. (35)
The next proposition establishes the existence of a unique equilibrium. To prove this result,
we use the fact that the thresholds are given by :
|
= :
|
(|, :, r) and :
I
= :
I
(|, :, r) as functions
of policies, and write (33) (35) as a mapping from the space of policies (|, :, r) into itself, and
show that this mapping is (locally) a contraction.
Proposition 13 Suppose that o is suciently large. Then there exists a unique (perfect
Bayesian) equilibrium in pure strategies. In this equilibrium, politicians choose their preferred
policy in the second period. In the rst period, the left-wing, moderate and right-wing politicians
choose policies |, : and r, respectively, and we have | < : < r, [:[ < [r[ and [:[ < [|[ (i.e.,
the moderate politician chooses a policy closer to the median voters bliss point 0 than either
of the extremist politician types). The incumbent is reelected if the signal : is within a certain
interval [:
|
, :
I
].
The next proposition characterizes a number of comparative static results of the policy
choices of the three types of politicians.
Proposition 14 Suppose that o is suciently large. Then:
1. If j
|
= j
v
, then moderate politicians choose their ideal policy : = 0 in the rst period,
while both extremist types choose policies more moderate than their true preferences, i.e.,
the left-wing politician chooses | (/, 0) and the right-wing politician chooses r (0, /).
Moreover, [|[ = [r[.
2. As j
|
decreases or j
v
increases (keeping j
|
+j
v
= 1 j constant), the policy of moderate
politician : decreases. Similarly, an increase in j
v
(and a decrease in j
|
) leads to an
increase in :. In other words, moderate politicians bias their rst-period policy choice in
the direction of the type of extremist that is less likely.
3. There exist j
0
and j
00
where 0 < j
0
< j
00
< 1 j and j
0
+ j
00
= 1 j such that: (a) if
j
|
< j
0
(and thus j
v
j
00
), then a further decrease in j
|
leads to a lower | and a higher
25
r (i.e., both extremists choose even more extreme policies); (b) likewise, if j
|
j
00
(and
thus j
v
< j
0
), then a further decrease in j
v
leads to a higher r and a lower | (again, both
extremist types choose more extreme policies); (c) if j
|
, j
v
(j
0
, j
00
), then | and r increase
as j
v
increases, and decrease as j
|
increases (i.e., extremists adjust their policies in the
direction of the type that becomes more likely).
This proposition establishes several important results. First, when their likelihoods are the
same, the two types of extremists choose symmetric policies and moderate politicians choose
their ideal policy : = 0. Because both extremists would like to masquerade as a moderate, their
policies are closer to the medians bliss point. Second, as one type of extremist becomes less
likely, we approach the results from the baseline model. In particular, as j
|
becomes suciently
low, i.e., a left-wing extremist is very unlikely, the policy of a moderate politician : becomes
more populist, and the policy of right-wing extremist becomes closer to his bliss point (increases).
The intuition is that, as j
|
decreases, a moderate politician has a higher chance of reelection
if he persuades the voters that he is not right-wing, whereas a right-wing politician has less to
fear from defeat and thus less incentive to signal by choosing a more moderate policy (for a
left-wing extremist has now become less likely). Third, a decline in the likelihood of a left-wing
extremist (from the symmetric case) has a nonmonotonic eect on the policy choices of left-wing
extremist politicians. This is because the probability that a politician is a right-wing extremist
is now higher and left-wing politicians are thus more afraid of losing power click calendar; this
induces them to choose more moderate policies to masquerate as a moderate. However, once this
likelihood is suciently small, voters become tolerant of left-wing signals (because they are not
afraid of left-wing extremists) and this encourages left-wing politicians to adopt more extremist
left-wing policies.
These results imply that more extremist policies are more likely to emerge in asymmetric
situations where the probability that the incumbent is one type of extremist is (signicantly)
higher than the other type. In such situations, moderate politicians will attempt to signal their
type by choosing policies with the opposite bias. If this asymmetry is very pronounced, the
most extreme policies will be chosen by the rarer type of extremist (though these policies will
also occur more rarely since these types are rare).
5.2 Asymmetric Priors
We have so far limited attention to environments where the prior that the incumbent politician
is moderate, j, is the same as the likelihood that a newly elected politician will be moderate. In
26
practice, these two probabilities may dier, for example because voters have received additional
information about the incumbent. We now return to the case with only right-wing extremists
and analyze this generalization. Our main result is that populist bias of policies increases when
there is more uncertainty about the type of the incumbent. We again simplify the analysis by
assuming that . is normally distributed.
Let the prior that the incumbent is moderate be i, which is potentially dierent from j.
Provided that r :, the posterior that the incumbent is moderate after having observed signal
: equals
i) (: :)
i) (: :) + (1 i) ) (: r)
.
The incumbent will therefore be reelected if
i) (: :)
i) (: :) + (1 i) ) (: r)
_ j,
which simplies to
) (: :)
) (: r)
_ /,
where
/ =
i, (1 i)
j, (1 j)
.
Clearly, / is an increasing function of i for all j (0, 1). As i increases from 0 to 1, / goes from
0 to +. Given the assumption that . is normally distributed, this implies that the incumbent
will be reelected if
: _ :
=
: + r
2
+
o
2
ln/
r :
.
Notice that if i = j, then / = 1, and we obtain :
=
n+v
2
as in the baseline model.
Proceeding as usual, the maximization problems of the two types of politicians are similar
to before and imply the following two rst-order conditions:
2c:
_
\ + c(1 j) /
2
_
) (:
:) = 0;
2c(r /)
_
\ + cj/
2
_
) (:
r) = 0.
Again as in the baseline model, we immediately obtain that there will be a populist bias for
moderate politicians policies (i.e., : < 0), and moreover, r < / (i.e., right-wing politicians
will choose policies to the left of their true preferences). Our main result in this subsection is
summarized in the next proposition.
Proposition 15 Suppose o
2
suciently high. Then there exists a unique (perfect Bayesian)
equilibrium. In this equilibrium, there exists

/ such that for / <

/, the populist bias of moderate
politicians, j = [:[, is increasing in /, and for /

/, the populist bias of moderate politicians,
j = [:[, is decreasing in /.
27
Intuitively, this proposition implies that there is greater populist bias when the prior that
the incumbent is moderate is close to the belief that a newly elected politician will be moderate.
Thus, if there is little uncertainty about the incumbent (relative to newly elected politicians)
because voters are either relatively sure that he is a moderate or relatively sure that he is a
right-winger, then there will be limited populist bias. Intuitively, a politician believed to be
moderate is fairly certain of reelection, whereas for a politician believed to be a right-wing
extremist, dissuading the voters is too hard and too costly, even if he is actually a moderate,
thus discouraging signaling and moderate policies. This proposition thus implies that populist
bias is greatest when little additional information is known about the politician (except that
they are from the pool with share j of moderates), or put dierently, when there is greater
uncertainty about politicians, the populist bias of policies increases.
6 Conclusion
In this paper, we presented a simple theory of populist politics. Populist politics is interpreted
as (some) politicians adopting policies that are harmful to the rich elite but are not in the best
interest of the poor majority or the median voter. Such policies, which may, at least on the
surface, involve defending the rights of the poor against the elite, establishing redistributive
programs and leveling the playing eld, are to the left of the bliss point of the median voter,
but still receive support from the median because they signal that the politician does not have
a secret right-wing agenda and is not unduly inuenced by the rich elite. The driving force
of populist politics is the weakness of democratic institutions, which makes voters believe that
politicians, despite their rhetoric, might have a right-wing agenda or may be corruptible or
unduly inuenced by the elite. Populist policies thus emerge as a way for politicians to signal
that they will choose future policies in line with the interests of the median voter.
We show that moderate politicians will necessarily choose policies to the left of the median
voters preferences, and even right-wing politicians (or those that are captured and bribed by
the elite) may end up choosing policies to the left of the median voter. This leftist (populist)
bias of policy is greater when the value of remaining in oce is higher for the politician; when
there is greater polarization between the policy preferences of the median voter and right-wing
politicians; when politicians are indeed likely to have a hidden right-wing agenda; and when
there is an intermediate amount of noise in the information that voters receive.
When (some) politicians can be bribed, we also nd that the eciency of the process of
bribery and the share of the surplus that politicians can capture also encourage left-wing bias
28
(because they make politicians more eager to get reelected). Interestingly, in this case, the elite
may be worse o than a situation in which institutions are stronger and bribery is not possible
(because the equilibrium left-wing bias of rst-period policies is more pronounced).
Our paper and model have been partly motivated by Latin American politics, where populist
policies and rhetoric as well as fears of politicians reneging on their redistributive agenda and
being excessively inuenced by rich and powerful elites right have been commonplace. Nev-
ertheless, the ideas here can be applied to other contexts. Our analysis in Section 5.1 shows
that when voters are afraid of a secret left-wing agenda, the equilibrium may lead to right-wing
populist policies. Similarly, if bureaucrats are expected to show a bias in favor of a particular
group or a particular type of policy, they may have incentives to be biased in the opposite di-
rection to dispel these notions and guarantee good performance evaluation. Finally, our model
has focused on a two-period economy to communicate the basic ideas in the clearest fashion.
In a multi-period setup, politicians may choose biased policies for several periods. Despite the
tractability of our basic model, the innite-horizon extension turns out to be challenging and is
an open area for future research.
29
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32
Appendix: Proofs
The following Lemma is useful to understand the role and consequences of Assumption 2.
Lemma 1 Suppose that Assumption 2 holds. Then:
1. ) (0) <
2
b
(even ) (0) <
3
2b
);
2. Pr
_
[.[
b
4
_
1
4
.
Proof of Lemma 1. Part 1. Assumption 2 implies that [)
0
(r)[ <
2
b
2
if [r[ < /. Hence,
whenever [r[ < /, we have [) (r) ) (0)[ _
2
b
2
[r[. This implies ) (r) _ ) (0)
2
b
2
[r[. We then
have
1 =
_
+1
1
) (r) dr
_
+b2
b2
) (r) dr
_
_
+b2
b2
_
) (0)
2
/
2
[r[
_
dr = /) (0) 2
_
+b2
0
2
/
2
rdr
= /) (0)
4
/
2
1
2
_
/
2
_
2
= /) (0)
1
2
.
This immediately implies /) (0) <
3
2
, and thus ) (0) <
3
2b
<
2
b
.
Part 2. We have
Pr
_
[.[ <
/
4
_
=
_
+b4
b4
) (r) dr <
_
+b4
b4
) (0) dr =
/
2
3
2/
=
3
4
.
Hence, Pr
_
[.[
b
4
_
1
4
.
Proof of Proposition 1.
Part 1. Consider three cases: : < r, : r, and : = r. Median voters posterior that the
politician is poor is (by Bayes rule)
^ j =
j) (: :)
j) (: :) + (1 j) ) (: r)
.
If : = r, then ^ j = j, and thus, by assumption, the incumbent is necessarily reelected. The
poor and rich incumbents then choose their bliss points, so : = 0 < / = r, which contradicts
: = r.
If : ,= r, then ^ j _ j if and only if
) (: :) _ ) (: r) ,
33
which simplies to : _ (: + r) ,2 if : < r and to : _ (: + r) ,2 if : r. But if : r, the
likelihood of reelection is given by
(r) = Pr (r + . _ (: + r) ,2) = 1 1 ((: + r) ,2 r) = 1 (r (: + r) ,2)
(the last equality follows from the symmetry of distribution). Hence, poor and rich incumbents
solve problems
max
a
cr
2
+ \ (r) (1 j) c/
2
(1 (r)) ,
max
a
c(r /)
2
+ \ (r) jc/
2
(1 (r)) ,
respectively.
We have
c:
2
+ \1
_
:r
2
_
(1 j) c/
2
1
_
r :
2
_
_ cr
2
+ \1
_
r :
2
_
(1 j) c/
2
1
_
:r
2
_
,
c(r /)
2
+ \1
_
r :
2
_
jc/
2
1
_
:r
2
_
_ c(:/)
2
+ \1
_
:r
2
_
jc/
2
1
_
r :
2
_
.
Adding these inequalities, dividing by c and simplifying, we get
:
2
(r /)
2
_ r
2
(:/)
2
+ /
2
_
21
_
:r
2
_
1
_
(2j 1)
Further simplication yields
:r _
1
2
/
_
21
_
:r
2
_
1
_
(1 2j) .
If : r, then this condition implies 1 2j 0. However, then we have
:r
2
_
/
2
_
1
_
:r
2
_
1
2
_
.
Due to concavity of 1 for positive arguments (see Assumption 2), this is only possible if
) (0) _
2
/
.
However, in that case Assumption 2 is violated.
Part 2. By part 1, the only remaining possibility is : < r. The statement for this case is
proved in the text.
Proof of Proposition 2. The second derivatives for (9) and (11) are
2c +
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
)
0
_
: + r
2
r
_
< 0
34
and
2c +
_
\ + jc/
2
_
)
0
_
: + r
2
r
_
< 0,
respectively. Assumption 2 ensures that both are satised. Once this is true, we nd that (13)
implies an increasing : as a function of r whenever : < r, whereas (14) implies a decreasing r
as a function of : whenever : < r. Consequently, if an equilibrium exists, it is unique, since
these best-response curves may intersect only once. The existence result trivially follows from
(16): clearly, the left-hand side and the right-hand side have an intersection at some positive j.
Proof of Proposition 3. Part 1. Let us rewrite (16) as
G(j, \, c, j) = 0, (A1)
where
G(j, \, c, j) =
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
)
_
j
2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+
/
2
_
2cj.
We denote
j =
j
2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+
/
2
0 (A2)
(j 0 because it equals
vn
2
, which is positive by Proposition 2). Notice that, since ) (r) <
2
b
for any r, then
j <
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
1
/c
,
and thus
j =
j
2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+
/
2
<
1
2
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
1
/c
c/
2
1
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+
/
2
=
/
2
+
/
2
= /.
Consequently, by Assumption 2,
)
0
(j)
<
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
. (A3)
In addition, (A1) implies
j =
\ + (1 j) c/
2
2c
) (j) . (A4)
We now dierentiate G with respect to j and \. We have
0G
0j
= c/
2
1 2j
2
)
0
(j) 2c
< c/
2
1
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
2c =
c
1 +
W
cb
2
2c < 0.
35
Dierentiating by \ yields
0G
0\
= ) (j)
j
2
c/
2
1 2j
(\ + (1 j) c/
2
)
)
0
(j) ) (j)
j
2
c/
2
1
(\ + (1 j) c/
2
)
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
= ) (j)
1
4
) (j) /
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
_ ) (j)
1
2
) (j) 0;
here, we used (A3) and (A4). This implies that
0j
0\
=
0G,0\
0G,0j
0,
and thus j is increasing in \.
Part 2. Let us dierentiate G with respect to j. We have
0G
0j
= c/
2
) (j)
j
2
c/
2
c/
2
+ 2\
\ + (1 j) c/
2
)
0
(j)
< c/
2
) (j) +
j
2
c/
2
c/
2
+ 2\
\ + (1 j) c/
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
= c/
2
) (j)
_
1 +
1
4c
c/
2
+ 2\
b
2
2
+
W
2c
_
= c/
2
) (j)
_
1 +
c/
2
+ 2\
2c/
2
+ 2\
_
< 0
(we again used (A3) and (A4)). This implies that
0j
0j
=
0G,0j
0G,0j
< 0,
and hence j is decreasing in j.
Part 3. Observe that (A1) may be rewritten as
_
\
c
+ (1 j) /
2
_
)
_
j
2
/
2
1 2j
W
c
+ (1 j) /
2
+
/
2
_
2j = 0. (A5)
Consequently, if \ = 0, then equilibrium populist bias j does not depend on c. If \ 0,
then, since (A5) only depends on \ and c through
W
c
, an increase in c has the same eect as
a decrease in \. In other words, j is decreasing in c. This completes the proof.
Proof of Proposition 4. Part 1. The proof closely follows that of Proposition 3. Let us
rewrite (17) as
~
G(, \, c, j) = 0, (A6)
where
~
G(, \, c, j) =
_
\ + jc/
2
_
)
_
2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + jc/
2
+
/
2
_
2c.
Take j =
vn
2
, then j 0 by Proposition 2, and thus
j =

2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + jc/
2
+
/
2
0
36
Notice that, since ) (r) <
2
b
for any r, then
<
_
\ + jc/
2
_
1
/c
,
and thus
j =

2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + jc/
2
+
/
2
<
1
2
_
\ + jc/
2
_
1
/c
c/
2
1
\ + jc/
2
+
/
2
=
/
2
+
/
2
= /.
Consequently, by Assumption 2,
)
0
(j)
<
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
. (A7)
=
\ + jc/
2
2c
) (j) . (A8)
We now dierentiate
~
G with respect to and \. We have
0
~
G
0
= c/
2
1 2j
2
)
0
(j) 2c
< c/
2
1
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
2c =
c
1 +
W
cb
2
2c < 0.
Dierentiating by \ yields
0
~
G
0\
= ) (j)

2
c/
2
1 2j
(\ + jc/
2
)
)
0
(j) ) (j)

2
c/
2
1
(\ + jc/
2
)
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
= ) (j)
1
4
) (j) /
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
_ ) (j)
1
2
) (j) 0;
here, we used (A7) and (A8). This implies that
0
0\
=
0
~
G,0\
0
~
G,0
0,
and thus is increasing in \.
Part 2. Let us dierentiate
~
G with respect to j. We have
0
~
G
0j
= c/
2
) (j)

2
c/
2
c/
2
+ 2\
\ + (1 j) c/
2
)
0
(j) 0
()
0
(j) < 0 since j 0). This implies that
0
0j
=
0
~
G,0j
0
~
G,0
0,
and hence is increasing in j.
37
Part 3. Observe that (A6) may be rewritten as
_
\
c
+ j/
2
_
)
_
2
/
2
1 2j
W
c
+ j/
2
+
/
2
_
2 = 0. (A9)
Consequently, if \ = 0, then equilibrium bias does not depend on c. If \ 0, then, since
(A9) only depends on \ and c through
W
c
, an increase in c has the same eect as a decrease
in \. In other words, is decreasing in c. This completes the proof.
Proof of Proposition 5. Part 1. If \ = 0, an elite politician would never choose r
1
<
0. Indeed, in this case he would get at most (/ r
1
)
2
< /
2
, even if his ideal policy is
implemented in the second period. At the same time, he can always guarantee getting /
2
by
choosing r
1
= / (in that case, r
2
will be either 0 or /, depending on the election result and new
politicians type). Consequently, r
1
= / would be a protable deviation, and thus r
1
< 0 may
not be the case in an equilibrium if \ = 0.
Part 2. Combining (13) and (14) yields
: = (r /)
\ + (1 j) c/
2
\ + jc/
2
;
plugging this into (14) yields
_
\ + jc/
2
_
)
_
/ r
2
c/
2
1 2j
\ + jc/
2
+
/
2
_
2c(/ r) = 0.
The remainder of the proof is completely analogous with the proof of Part 1 of Proposition 3:
like there, we show that / r is increasing in \, and thus r is decreasing in \.
Part 3. If \ 0 is suciently large, r
1
< 0 is possible for both politicians. Indeed, r
v
1
and
r
j
1
are linked by
r
v
1
= r
j
1
\ + jc/
2
\ + (1 j) c/
2
+ /.
If \ is suciently large, equilibrium populism j can be made arbitrarily large (otherwise in
(16), the argument of ) would be bounded from below, and thus the right-hand side could be
arbitrarily large, which is incompatible with the left-hand side being bounded). But then r
j
1
may
be arbitrarily large (in absolute value) negative number, and thus r
v
1
will also become negative,
since
W+jcb
2
W+(1j)cb
2
has a limit as \ . This completes the proof.
Proof of Proposition 6. Part 1. A normal distribution is characterized by density
) (r) =
1
_
2o
c
x
2
2
2
.
38
One can easily check that

0)
0a
reaches its maximum at r = o, and this maximum equals

1
p
2co
2
. For Assumption 2 to hold, it would be sucient to require that
o
2
b
2
2
+
W
2c
_
2c
. (A10)
This inequality (A10) is obviously satised if \ = 0 and / < 2o.
Now, dierentiate G with respect to /. We have
0G
0/
= 2 (1 j) c/) (j) +
\
2
+ 2c/ (j + / 2jj /j) \ + c
2
/
4
(1 j)
2
2 (\ + (1 j) c/
2
)
)
0
(j) .
If \ = 0, we have
0G
0/
= 2 (1 j) c/) (j) +
c/
2
(1 j)
2
)
0
(j)
=
(1 j) c/) (j)
2
_
4 + /
)
0
(j)
) (j)
_
.
For a normal distribution,
)
0
(j)
) (j)
=
j
o
2
,
and thus, using (A10), we get that if \ = 0,
0G
0/
=
(1 j) c/) (j)
2
_
4 /
j
o
2
_
0
whenever /
2
< 4o
2
(because 0 < j < /). Therefore, for / not too large (or if o is suciently
large), then
0j
0/
=
0G,0/
0G,0j
0
(it is worth noting that for this result, we would not need the assumption about normal distri-
bution).
Part 2. As \ varies, so does j, and in such a way that
j
W+(1j)cb
2
remains constant (this
follows from (A1)). Consequently, as \ increases, j remains constant. This implies, rst, that
0G
0j
remains constant, and the full derivative of
0G
0b
with respect to \ equals (we substitute
j =
j
b
2
b
2
2
(12j)
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
before dierentiating):
d
0G
0b
d\
=
)
0
(j)
2/
(/ 4j) .
Now, since )
0
(j) < 0, then to show that
0G
0b
is decreasing in \ it suces to show that j
b
4
.
To do that, we prove that solution to equation
j = ) (j) /
2
1 2j
4
+
/
2
,
39
which we obtain from (A1), satises j
b
4
. We can rewrite the equation as
j
/
=
1
_
2
/
o
c
1
2
y
2
b
2
b
2
2
1 2j
4
+
1
2
.
Denote
j
b
= .,
b
o
= /; then this equation may be rewritten as q (.) =
1
2
, where
q (.) = .
1
_
2
/c
1
2
I
2
:
2 1 2j
4
;
obviously,
q (.) < . +
1
4
_
2
/c
1
2
I
2
:
2
.
Suppose, to obtain a contradiction, that . <
1
4
. Then on the interval 0 < / <
4
_
8c (which
captures all values of / =
b
o
that satisfy (A10), function /c
1
2
I
2
:
2
is monotonically increasing,
and thus does not exceed its value at / =
4
_
8c. Therefore,
q (.) < . +
4
_
8c
4
_
2
c
p
2c:
2
.
One can easily check that the right-hand side is monotonically increasing in . on
_
0,
1
4
_
, and
therefore does not exceed
1
4
+
4
_
8c
4
_
2
c
p
2e
16
<
1
2
.
This leads us to a contradiction, meaning that for no . <
1
4
it is possible that q (.) =
1
2
. This
completes the proof.
Proof of Proposition 8. Let us denote the probability of having a moderate politician in the
second period (without term limits) by `. Notice that the equilibrium probability of reelection
of a moderate politician is 1
_
vn
2
_
, and the probability of reelection of a right-wing politician
is 1
_
nv
2
_
= 1 1
_
vn
2
_
. Consequently,
` = j1
_
r :
2
_
+ j
_
1 1
_
r :
2
__
j + (1 j)
_
1
_
1 1
_
r :
2
___
j
= j
_
j + 2 (1 j) 1
_
r :
2
__
,
1 ` = (1 j)
_
1 j
_
21
_
r :
2
_
1
__
Indeed, this happens if (a) moderate politician is reelected, (b) moderate politician is not re-
elected, but a moderate comes instead, and (c) right-wing politician is replaced by a moderate.
Therefore, the poor voters utility if term limits are absent are
\
a
= j:
2
(1 j) r
2
(1 j)
_
1 j
_
21
_
r :
2
_
1
__
/
2
,
40
and their utility if with term limits are
\
t
= 2 (1 j) /
2
.
We have
\
a
\
t
= j:
2
(1 j) r
2
+ (1 j)
_
1 + j
_
21
_
r :
2
_
1
__
/
2
, (A11)
and we need to nd when it is positive or negative.
Recall that we denoted j =
vn
2
, and rewrite (A2) as
2cj
1 2j
\ + (1 j) c/
2
= 2
2j /
/
2
;
then (A1) implies
(1 2j) ) (j) 2
2j /
/
2
= 0,
which may be rewritten as
1 2j
4
) (j) /
2
j +
/
2
= 0. (A12)
From (A12) we see that j does not depend on \ and on c. Thus, if we rewrite (A11) as
\
a
\
t
= jj
2
(1 j) (2j j)
2
+ (1 j) (1 + j(21 (j) 1)) /
2
(A13)
(recall j = [:[), then it suces to prove that for xed j, the right-hand side of (A13) is positive
for small j < j
and negative for j j
(provided that j takes feasible values).

Dierentiating the right-hand side of (A13) with respect to j yields
4j 2j 4jj = 2 (j 2j (1 j)) .
Consequently, \
a
\
t
is decreasing in j for j 2j (1 j), and there is j
2j (1 j) such
that for j j
it is negative. It now suces to proof that for j < 2j (1 j) the right-hand side
of (A13) is positive. But it is increasing for such values, and hence it suces to prove that the
value at the minimal feasible j is positive.
Suppose rst that j _
1
2
. Then (A12) implies j _
b
2
. Take j = 0 (j cannot be negative),
then
\
a
\
t
= (1 j) (2j)
2
+ (1 j) (1 + j(21 (j) 1)) /
2
_ (1 j) /
2
+ (1 j) (1 + j(21 (j) 1)) /
2
= (1 j) /
2
j(21 (j) 1) 0.
41
Now suppose that j <
1
2
; then (A12) implies j
b
2
. Here, for j = 0, \
a
\
t
may be
negative, but j = 0 is infeasible in this case. Indeed, we have r = 2j + :; now r < / implies
: < / 2j, and thus j = : 2j /. We thus substitute j = 2j / to obtain
\
a
\
t
= j(2j /)
2
(1 j) /
2
+ (1 j) (1 + j(21 (j) 1)) /
2
= j(2j /)
2
+ (1 j) j(21 (j) 1) /
2
.
Notice that (A12) implies
2j / = ) (j) /
2
1 2j
2
,
and we also have
21 (j) 1 = 2 (1 (j) 1 (0)) = 2
_
j
0
) (r) dr 2j) (j) /) (j) ,
since ) (r) is decreasing for r 0. Consequently,
\
a
\
t
j
_
) (j) /
2
1 2j
2
_
2
+ (1 j) j/
3
) (j) .
Then, using ) (j) <
2
b
, we obtain
\
a
\
t
j
_
) (j) /
2
1 2j
2
_
2
+ (1 j) j/
3
) (j)
_ j) (j)
_
1
4
) (j) /
4
+
1
2
/
3
_
j) (j)
_
1
2
/
3
+
1
2
/
3
_
= 0.
In both cases, we have shown that \
a
\
t
0 at the minimal value of j, and therefore for
all j < 2j (1 j). Consequently, \
a
\
t
< 0 if and only if j exceeds some threshold j
. By
Proposition 3, this is more likely if \ is larger or c is smaller, and the opposite is more likely
if \ is smaller and c is larger.
Proof of Proposition 7. Let us treat G as a function of o, too. To dierentiate G with
respect to o at points where (A1) holds, consider
0 (oG())
0o
= o
0G
0o
+ G() = o
0G
0o
.
42
We have
0 (oG())
0o
=
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
1
_
2
0
0o
_
exp
_
j
2
2o
2
__
2cj
=
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
1
_
2
j
2
o
3
exp
_
j
2
2o
2
_
2cj
=
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
j
2
o
2
) (j) 2cj
=
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
) (j)
_
j
2
o
2
1
_
,
where we used (A4) to get the last inequality. We have
0j
0o
=
0G,0o
0G,0j
=
0 (oG) ,0o
0G,0j
,
hence
0j
0o
0 (< 0) if and only if
j
o
1 (< 1). To study whether
j
o
is greater than or less than
1 we will use (A12).
As shown above, in the case with normal distribution, Assumption 2 is equivalent to (A10).
Hence, there are always feasible values of o such that o /; since j < / as proved earlier in the
Proof of Proposition 3, in this case
j
o
< 1, and j is decreasing in o. At the same time, for some
parameter values
j
o
1 is possible. Take, for instance, \ = 0, then (A10) is satised whenever
o
b

1
4
p
8c
, in particular if / = 1 and o = 0.4. If we let j =
1
2
, then (A12) implies j =
b
2
=
1
2
,
and thus
j
o
=
5
4
1.
Given that j is decreasing in o if o is large enough, in order too prove that j is rst increasing
in o and then decreasing, but never vice versa, it suces to prove that
j
o
is decreasing in o in
points where
j
o
= 1. Denote r =
j
o
and rewrite (A12) as
1 2j
4
1
_
2
exp
_
r
2
2
_
/
2
ro
2
+
/
2
o = 0. (A14)
We have
0r
0o
=
(r)
12j
4
/
2 1
p
2
exp
_
a
2
2
_
/
2
o
2
2ro +
b
2
=
(r)
_
ro
2
b
2
o
_
o
2
2ro +
b
2
,
where we used (A14) in the last equality. If r = 1, then
0r
0o
=
_
o
2
b
2
o
_
o
2
2o +
b
2
=
2o
2
+
b
2
o
2o +
b
2
= o < 0.
This proves that
j
o
may equal 1 for only one value of o, and thus j is increasing in o if o < o
and decreasing in o if o o
.
43
To nd o
, we plug r = 1 into the equation (A14) and get the equation for o
:
_
o
/
_
2
1
2
o
/

1 2j
4
1
_
2c
= 0.
We thus have o
as the larger root of this equation, so

o
=
/
4
_
_
1 +
_
1 + (1 2j)
_
8
c
_
_
(this is a real number for any j, since c 8).
Now, rewrite (15) as
= j
\ + jc/
2
\ + (1 j) c/
2
.
This equation is linear and does not involve o. Hence, if o increases, either both j and increase
or both j and decrease. In particular, the results above apply. Hence, the maximum of both
j and is achieved at the same o
, at this o
, j = o
, and the maximal biases equal

j (o = o
) = /
_
\ + (1 j) c/
2
_
,
(o = o
) = /
_
\ + jc/
2
_
,
where
/ =
_
_
r
1+(12j)
q
8
e
1
2(12j)cb
if j ,=
1
2
1
cb
p
2c
if j =
1
2
.
Proof of Proposition 9.
The proof of the Proposition is completely analagous to the proof of Proposition 1 and is
omitted.
Proof of Proposition 10. Part 1. Notice that under Assumption 2, problems (20) and (22)
are convex. Indeed, take (20); the second derivative w.r.t. r equals
2c +
_
\ + (1 j) c
_
/
1 + c
_
2
_
)
0
_
: + r
2
r
_
< 0,
since 1+c 1 and thus \ +(1 j) c
_
b
1+c
_
2
< \ +(1 j) c/
2
. For problem (22), the second
derivative w.r.t. r equals, after simplications,
2c 2+
_
\ (j + j) C +
_
j + (1 j)
_
+
c
c + 1
__
/
2
c + 1
_
)
0
_
: + r
2
r
_
.
44
For this to be negative, it suces that
)
0
_
: + r
2
r
_
<
2 (c + 1)
_
\ +
_
j + (1 j)
_
+
c
c+1
__
b
2
c+1
_
=
2c
\
c
c+1
+
_
j + (1 j)
_
+
c
c+1
__
b
2
c+1
c
c+1
. (A15)
Simple algebra yields
\
c
c + 1
+
_
j + (1 j)
_
+
c
c + 1
__
/
2
c + 1
c
c + 1
< \ + c/
2
,
and thus (A15) is negative, provided that 2 is satised. As in the Proposition 2 we get that
equilibrium is determined by the intersection of : as an increasing function of r and of r as a
decreasing function of :. This ensures that equilibrium is unique if it exists, and existence is
proved similarly to Proposition 2. Finally, as the rst-period policy of an honest politician is
given by (21), we immediately obtain : < 0.
Part 2. We can apply the reasoning we used in the proof of Proposition 5. If \ = = 0,
then the dishonest incumbent has not reelection motives except for inuence the policy choice.
Consequently, the incumbent and the elite will jointly choose policy r
1
0, for otherwise they
would be better o choosing any policy between 0 and 1 in the rst period, and then playing
equilibrium strategies in the second. If, however, \ is high enough, we can again show that
neither : nor r are bounded from below, and thus r < 0 is possible.
Proof of Proposition 11. Part 1. Let us rewrite (26) as
H (j, \, C, j, ) = 0, (A16)
where
H (j, \, C, j, ) =
_
\ +
(1 j) c/
2
(1 + c)
2
_
) (j) 2cj,
where
j = j
\ + c(j + j) C
(1j)cb
2
1+c
+
b
2
c(12jcj)
(c+1)
2
2 (c + 1)
_
\ +
(1j)cb
2
(1+c)
2
_ +
/
2 (1 + c)
0
(j 0 because it equals
vn
2
, which is positive by Proposition 10). By Assumption 2,
)
0
(j)
<
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
. (A17)
j =
\ +
(1j)cb
2
(1+c)
2
2c
) (j) . (A18)
45
We now dierentiate H with respect to j and \. We have
0H
0j
=
\ + c(j + j) C
(1j)cb
2
1+c
+
b
2
c(12jcj)
(1+c)
2
2 (c + 1)
)
0
(j) 2c
<

(1j)cb
2
1+c
+
b
2
c(12jcj)
(1+c)
2
2 (1 + c)
)
0
(j) 2c =
/
2
c
2
c + j
(1 + c)
3
)
0
(j)
<
/
2
c
2
1
(1 + c)
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
2c _
/
2
c
2
1
(1 + c)
2
2
/
2
2c
_ c 2c < 0
(since )
0
(j) < 0,
01
0j
would achieve its maximum at \ = 0, = 1). Dierentiating with respect
to \ yields
0H
0\
= ) (j) +
jc/
2
(j + (1 j) )
2 (1 + c)
2
_
\ +
(1j)cb
2
(1+c)
2
_)
0
(j)
) (j)
/
2
(j + (1 j) )
4 (1 + c)
2
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
) (j) ) (j)
/
2
4
2
/
2
) (j) 0.
Hence,
0j
0\
=
0G,0\
0G,0j
0,
and thus j is increasing in \.
Part 2. Dierentiate H with respect to C. Clearly,
0H
0C
< 0,
and therefore
0j
0C
< 0,
so j is decreasing in C.
Part 3. Dierentiate H with respect to . We have
0H
0
= j
(1 j) c
_
b
2
1+c
C
_
2 (1 + c)
)
0
(j) 0;
we used the condition (19) that suggests that C is not high enough to prevent second-period
corruption. Therefore,
0j
0
=
0G,0
0G,0j
0,
and thus j is increasing in .
46
Part 4. Dierentiate H with respect to j. We have
0H
0j
=
c/
2
(1 + c)
2
) (j)
j
2
c
_
/
2
C (1 + c)
_
(1 + c)
4
\ (1 + c)
2
(1 ) + /
2
c
\ +
(1j)cb
2
(1+c)
2
)
0
(j)
=
c/
2
(1 + c)
2
) (j)
) (j)
4c
c
_
/
2
C (1 + c)
_
(1 + c)
4
_
\ (1 + c)
2
(1 ) + /
2
c
_
)
0
(j)
<
c/
2
(1 + c)
2
) (j)
) (j)
4c
c/
2
(1 + c)
4
_
\ (1 + c)
2
(1 ) + /
2
c
_
)
0
(j)
=
c/
2
(1 + c)
2
) (j)
_
1
1
4c
1
(1 + c)
2
_
\ (1 + c)
2
(1 ) + /
2
c
_
)
0
(j)
_
<
c/
2
(1 + c)
2
) (j)
_
1 +
_
\
1
4c
+
/
2
4 (1 + c)
2
_
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
_
<
c/
2
(1 + c)
2
) (j)
_
1 +
_
\
1
2c
+
/
2
2
_
1
b
2
2
+
W
2c
_
= 0.
Consequently,
0j
0j
=
0G,0j
0G,0j
< 0,
and thus j is decreasing in j. This completes the proof.
Proof of Proposition 12. If \ is high enough, then for C = 0, both : and r can be
arbitrarily low in the rst period if. In that case, the utility of the elite may be arbitrarily low,
whereas for C suciently high, there is no corruption, and the utility of the elite is given by
2/
2
, as all politicians will choose r
1
= r
2
= 0. Consequently, there exists

\ such that for
\

\, the elite is better o under C = 0. This completes the proof.
Proof of Proposition 13. Let A R
3
be the (open) set dened by
(|, :, r) A ==| < : < r.
We will rst prove that the set of signals : that satisfy (29) is a (closed) interval [:
|
, :
I
] such
that < :
|
<
|+n
2
and
n+v
2
< :
I
< + whenever (|, :, r) A. Indeed, as : becomes
close to , the rst term becomes negative, and arbitrarily large in absolute value (since
the exponent tends to +), while the second term tends to 0, so the left-hand side of (29) is
negative. Likewise, as : becomes large and positive, the rst term tends to 0 and the second
becomes large and negative, so the left-hand side is negative. At the same time, if we pick
: =
|+n
2
or : =
n+v
2
, then one term is positive and the other is zero, so the left-hand side is
positive. It now suces to prove that the left-hand side of (29) is a concave function of :. This
follows by observing that the derivative with respect to :,
j
|
1
o
2
(:|) exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
j
v
1
o
2
(r :) exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
: + r
2
__
,
47
is a decreasing function of :.
We have thus shown that for all (|, :, r) A (in fact, for all |, :, r such that | < : < r),
there are exactly two dierent solutions to the equation
j
|
_
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
___
+ j
v
_
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
: + r
2
___
= 0;
(A19)
we can denote the lesser of them as :
|
(|, :, r) and the greater as :
I
(|, :, r).
Let us prove that
0c
0a
cj
o
3
exp
_
(cj)
2
2o
2
_
, where : :
|
, :
I
, and r, j |, :, r in all possible
combinations (18 totally) are each o (1) as o , provided that (|, :, r) A
j
for j chosen
below. We choose j in the following way. Consider the function
Q(/, :) =
1 exp
_
/
_
: +
b
2
__
1 exp
_
/
_
:
b
2
__ exp
_
/
_
: +
/
2
__
for :
_
b
2
,
_
. One can verify that for all :
_
b
2
,
_
,
Q(/, :) _ 2c
b
2
_
c
b
2
1. (A20)
To see this, notice that lim
c!
b
2
+0
Q(/, :) = +and lim
c!+1
Q(/, :) = 1. In addition, if c
b
2
< 2,
then :
0
=
ln
1
2
b
2
_
1c
b
2
b
is a local minimum on
_
b
2
, +
_
, and Q(/, :
0
) = 2c
b
2
_
c
b
2
1.
Since 2c
b
2
_
c
b
2
1 _ 1 for all / (with equality achieved if c
b
2
= 1), we have that Q(/, :) is
bounded from below by 2c
b
2
_
c
b
2
1 for all /, so (A20) holds.
Consider now the function
Q(/, :, j) =
1 2j
1 + 2j
1 exp
_
/ (1 2j)
_
: +
b(12j)
2
__
1 exp
_
/ (1 + 2j)
_
:
b(12j)
2
__ exp
_
/ (1 2j)
_
: +
/ (1 2j)
2
__
.
By continuity, we can choose j
0 such that for all j [0, j
] and for all :

b(12j)
2
,
Q(/, :, j) _ c
b
2
_
c
b
2
1.
Next, for j [0, j
] and o _ 1 consider the function

^
Q(/, :, j, o) =

Q
_
/
o
,
:
o
, j
_
=
1 2j
1 + 2j
1 exp
_
1
o
2
/ (1 2j)
_
: +
b(12j)
2
__
1 exp
_
1
o
2
/ (1 + 2j)
_
:
b(12j)
2
__exp
_
1
o
2
/ (1 2j)
_
: +
/ (1 2j)
2
__
.
Applying the previous result, we immediately get that for :
b
2
,
^
Q(/, :, j, o) _ c
(
b
)
2
_
c
(
b
)
2
1 _ c
(
b
)
2
_
_
/
o
_
2
= c
b
2 /
o
48
(where we used the fact that c
a
1 + r for all r 0 and that o _ 1).
Consider now the following function:
~
Q(|, :, r, :, o) =
r :
:|
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
|+n
2
__
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
n+v
2
__ exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
,
dened on A
_
:
n+v
2
_
. For each j
_
0,
1
3
_
, let A
j
R
3
be the compact set given by
(|, :, r) A
j
==
_
_
_
/ j/ _ | _ / + j/
j/ _ : _ j/
/ j/ _ r _ / + j/
.
Now observe that if (|, :, r) A
j
, then the four values, : |, | + :, r :, : + r lie on
[/ (1 2j) , / (1 + 2j)], which implies
~
Q(|, :, r, :, o) _
^
Q(/, :, j, o) _ c
b
2 /
o
.
We are now ready to estimate
0c
0a
cj
o
3
exp
_
(cj)
2
2o
2
_
. Suppose, for example, that : = :
I
.
Since :
I
is the larger root of (A19), consider the function
1(:) = j
|
_
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
___
+j
v
_
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
: + r
2
___
;
we then have
0:
0r
=
01,0r
01,0:
.
As argued above, 01,0: is negative at : = :
I
, so consider
01
0:
= j
v
1
o
2
(r :) exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
: + r
2
__
j
|
1
o
2
(:|) exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
.
Consider the following two possibilities separately.
If j
v
_ 6j
|
(so j
v
_
6
7
(1 j) and j
|
_
1
7
(1 j)), then (since :
I

n+v
2

|+n
2
)
01
0:

1
o
2
_
j
v
(r :) j
|
(:|)
_
1
o
2
_
j
v
/
3
j
|
5/
3
_
_
1
o
2
1 j
21
.
49
Otherwise, if j
v
< 6j
|
(so j
|
1
7
(1 j)), then, substituting for j
v
,j
|
from (A19), we get
01
0:
= j
|
1
o
2
(:|)
_
j
v
(r :) exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
n+v
2
__
j
|
(:|)
exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
_
= j
|
1
o
2
(:|)
(r :) exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
n+v
2
__
(:|)
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
|+n
2
__
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
v+n
2
__ exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
_
= j
|
1
o
2
(:|)
_
r :
:|
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
|+n
2
__
1 exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
n+v
2
__ exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
_
= j
|
1
o
2
(:|)
~
Q(|, :, r, :, o) .
Consequently, if (|, :, r) A
j
, then
01
0:
_
1
7
(1 j)
1
o
2
1
3
/c
b
2 /
o
_
1
21
1
o
3
/
2
c
b
2
.
This implies that, given o _ 1 and /
2
c
b
2
_ 1, that in both cases
01
0:
_
1 j
21o
3
/
2
c
b
2
. (A21)
It is straightforward to check (or invoke the symmetry argument) that inequality (A21) would
hold for : = :
|
as well.
Consider now the derivatives
01
0|
= j
|
1
o
2
(: |) exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
,
01
0:
=
1
o
2
(: :)
_
j
|
exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
| + :
2
__
+ j
v
exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
: + r
2
___
,
01
0r
= j
v
1
o
2
(: r) exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
: + r
2
__
.
We have
exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
I
| + :
2
__
< 1,
exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
|
: + r
2
__
< 1,
and from (A19) we also have
exp
_
1
o
2
(:|)
_
:
|
| + :
2
__
<
j
|
+ j
v
j
|
, (A22)
exp
_
1
o
2
(r :)
_
:
I
: + r
2
__
<
j
|
+ j
v
j
v
. (A23)
50
Consequently, for any : :
|
, :
I
and r |, :, r, we have
01
0r
_ 2 (1 j)
1
o
2
[: r[ . (A24)
To proceed, consider the term [: r[. Notice that (A22) and (A23) imply that for o large
enough
:
|
2
o
2
/
ln
j
|
+ j
v
j
|
,
:
I
< 2
o
2
/
ln
j
|
+ j
v
j
v
.
If we denote /
|
(o) =
c
l
o
2
and /
I
(o) =
c
h
o
2
, these functions will be bounded. From (A19) we
obtain that as o , /
|
(o) and /
I
(o) tend to the two solutions of the equation
j
|
(1 exp((:|) /)) + j
v
(1 exp((r :) /)) .
One can check that the two solutions are bounded away from 0 for (|, :, r) A
j
for j < ^ j for
some ^ j small enough; we let j = min(j
, ^ j). This means that there are positive constants 1

1
and 1
2
such that whenever o is large enough,
1
1
<
[:
|
[
o
2
,
[:
I
[
o
2
< 1
2
. (A25)
It is now straightforward to see that for o large enough, since for such o we have [: j[
jcj
2
,
the following holds:
exp
_
(: j)
2
2o
2
_
_ exp
_
:
2
4o
2
_
_ exp
_
o
2
1
1
4
_
<
1
o
3
.
Overall, we thus have, for large o:
0:
0r
: j
o
3
exp
_
(: j)
2
2o
2
_
01,0r
01,0:
[: j[
o
3
exp
_
(: j)
2
2o
2
_
_
2 (1 j)
1
o
2
[: r[ [: j[
1j
21o
3
/
2
c
b
2
o
3
exp
_
(: j)
2
2o
2
_
_
42
/
2
c
b
2
o
2
:
2
4
1
o
3
_
42
4/
2
c
b
2
o
2
(1
2
)
2
o
4
1
o
3
<
1
o
for some constant 1. Remember that this has been proved for (|, :, r) A
j
.
51
Now consider
7 =
_
_
7
|
7
n
7
v
_
_
=
_
_
| (:
|
, :
I
)
:(:
|
, :
I
)
r (:
|
, :
I
)
_
_
dened as the functions introduced in (33)(35). We will prove that there exists j
_
0,
1
3
_
such
that for o large enough, mapping given by
(|, :, r) = 7 (| (:
|
(|, :, r)) , :((:
|
(|, :, r))) , r (:
|
(|, :, r)))
maps A into A
j
and is a contraction on A
j
. First, clearly A
j
is mapped into A
j
. Consider
next the Jacobian of mapping . It consists of derivatives of the kind
0Zx(a(c
l
(|,n,v)))
0j
for r, j
|, :, r. Consider, for example, r = j = |. The function 7
|
is obtained from (33). Denote
1
|
(|, 7
|
) = 2c(7
|
+ /)
_
\ + (j + 4j
v
) c/
2
_
() (:
I
(|, :, r) 7
|
) ) (:
|
(|, :, r) 7
|
)) .
We have
01
|
07
|
= 2c
_
\ + (j + 4j
v
) c/
2
_
_
:
I
7
|
_
2o
3
exp
_
(:
I
7
|
)
2
2o
2
_
:
|
7
|
_
2o
3
exp
_
(:
|
7
|
)
2
2o
2
__
,
so for large o,
0Y
l
0Z
l
c. Likewise,
01
|
0|
=
_
\ + (j + 4j
v
) c/
2
_
_
0:
I
0|
:
I
7
|
_
2o
3
exp
_
(:
I
7
|
)
2
2o
2
_
0:
|
0|
:
|
7
|
_
2o
3
exp
_
(:
|
7
|
)
2
2o
2
__
;
if o is large enough, then
0Y
l
0|
<
c
2
. This already implies that
0Z
l
0|
<
1
2
; the same may be proved
in a similar way for the other derivatives. This implies that mapping is a contraction on A
j
for o large enough.
We have thus proved that for o large enough, there exists a unique equilibrium (|, :, r) A
j
.
However, for o large enough, maps any element of A into A
j
, so for large o, there may be
no other xed points of mapping , and therefore no other monotonic equilibria. It remains to
prove that there are no non-monotonic equilibria. However, it is quite easy to see that for o high
enough, politicians best responses will lie arbitrarily close to /, 0, / for left-wing, moderate,
and right-wing types, respectively, so there will be no non-monotonic equilibria. This completes
the proof.
Proof of Proposition 14. Part 1. If j
|
= j
v
, then mapping maps symmetric triples
(r, 0, r) to similar triples. As any such sequence converges to the equilibrium because is a
contraction for o large enough, this property holds in the equilibrium as well. This also implies
:
|
+ :
I
= 0. Now, inequalities | / and r < / follow from (33) and (35).
52
Part 2. The equilibrium values of |, :, r are given by the equation
_
_
|
:
r
_
_
_
_
7
|
(:
|
(|, :, r) , :
I
(|, :, r))
7
n
(:
|
(|, :, r) , :
I
(|, :, r))
7
v
(:
|
(|, :, r) , :
I
(|, :, r))
_
_
= 0.
Suppose that j
|
decreases (and j
v
increases accordingly); we can parametrize j
|
=
1j
2
c,
j
|
=
1j
2
+ c. To dierentiate the implicit function, notice rst that if o is suciently large,
then the derivatives of 7 with respect to any of |, :, r are arbitrarily close to 0, and thus the
matrix of derivatives of the left-hand side with respect to |, :, r is close to unit matrix. To
determine the signs, it therefore suces to dierentiate 7
|
, 7
n
, 7
v
with respect to c. If o is
large enough, then the derivatives of ) (: r) for : :
|
, :
I
and r |, :, r with respect to
j
|
and j
v
are negligible. Now, both :
|
and :
I
are decreasing in c, as follows from (A19). More
precisely, we need to write the equations for the equilibrium values of :
|
and :
I
, notice that the
7
a
(:
|
, :
I
) has an arbitrarily small derivative with respect to c, and therefore only the direct
inclusion of c in (A19) through j
|
and j
I
should matter. This, together with :
|
< : < :
I
,
implies that : decreases in c. This implies that for all c, ) (:
I
r) ) (:
|
r) 0, and
therefore r is increasing in c. As for |, ) (:
I
|) ) (:
|
|) < 0 in the neighborhood of c = 0,
and therefore | is increasing in that neighborhood. However, as c increases enough so that j
|
is
suciently close to 0, then :
|
will tend to whereas :
I
will remain nite. This means that
for such c, ) (:
I
|) ) (:
|
|) 0, and | will increase in c.
Part 3. The proof is similar to the proof of Part 2 and is omitted.
Proof of Proposition 15. The policy choice of a right-wing politician can be written as
r = / + :
\ + cj/
2
\ + c(1 j) /
2
= / + :/,
where the second equality denes
/ =
\ + cj/
2
\ + c(1 j) /
2
This implies
r : = / + :(/ 1) .
Consequently, populist bias of moderate politicians, j = [:[, may be found from the equation
2cj
_
\ + c(1 j) /
2
_
1
_
2o
exp
_
_
_
_
vn
2
+
o
2
ln I
vn
_
2
2o
2
_
_
_ = 0,
53
or, equivalently,
1 (j, /) = 2cj
_
\ + c(1 j) /
2
_
1
_
2o
exp
_
_
_
_
bj(II1)
2
+
o
2
ln I
bj(II1)
_
2
2o
2
_
_
_.
This expression is increasing with in j if o is large (uniformly over ) In particular,
01
0j
= 2c+
_
\ + c(1 j) /
2
_
1
_
2o
3
_
//
2
+
o
2
// ln/
(/ j (// 1))
2
_
exp
_
_
_
_
bj(II1)
2
+
o
2
ln I
bj(II1)
_
2
2o
2
_
_
_.
It is also bounded. To prove this, rst consider the case [ln/[ < 100/
2
(in which case the
coecient
II
2
+
o
2
II ln I
(bj(II1))
2
is bounded) and the case [ln/[ 100/
2
(in which the exponent
vanishes very fast in / so that the product is bounded) separately. Next, we also have
01
0/
=
_
\ + c(1 j) /
2
_
1
_
2o
3
_
/ j (// 1)
2
+
o
2
ln/
/ j (// 1)
_
exp
_
_
_
_
bj(II1)
2
+
o
2
ln I
bj(II1)
_
2
2o
2
_
_
_
d
_
bj(II1)
2
+
o
2
ln I
bj(II1)
_
d
.
Hence, its sign depends on whether
bj(II1)
2
+
o
2
ln I
bj(II1)
is positive and whether it increases
in / (for given j). The latter is true, if o is large enough (and this is uniform in /). It also
increases in / if j is a function of /. It is positive if / is large and negative if / is low. Hence, j
increases in / is below some threshold, but increases in / if / is above this threshold.
54

A Political Theory of Populism

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A Political Theory of Populism

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A Political Theory of Populism

reaches its maximum at r = o, and this maximum equals

and negative for j j

(provided that j takes feasible values).

as the larger root of this equation, so

, and the maximal biases equal

0 such that for all j [0, j

] and for all :

] and o _ 1 consider the function

, ^ j). This means that there are positive constants 1

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